Search results for: geopolitical risks

Authors: Rebin Mzhda Mohammed, Hoshmand Ali Hama Agha

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Excess skin, often consequential to substantial weight loss or the aging process, introduces physical discomfort, obstructs daily activities, and undermines an individual's self-esteem. As these challenges become increasingly prevalent, the need to explore viable solutions grows in significance. Extra skin removal surgery, colloquially known as body contouring surgery, has emerged as a compelling intervention to ameliorate the physical and psychological burdens of excess skin. This study undertakes a comprehensive review to illuminate the intricacies of extra skin removal surgery, encompassing its diverse procedures, associated risks, benefits, and psychological implications on patients. The methodological approach adopted involves a systematic and exhaustive review of pertinent scholarly literature sourced from reputable databases, including PubMed, Google Scholar, and specialized cosmetic surgery journals. Articles are meticulously curated based on their relevance, credibility, and recency. Subsequently, data from these sources are synthesized and categorized, facilitating a comprehensive understanding of the subject matter. Qualitative analysis serves to unravel the nuanced psychological effects, while quantitative data, where available, are harnessed to underpin the study's conclusions. In terms of major findings, the research underscores the manifold advantages of extra skin removal surgery. Patients experience a notable improvement in physical comfort, amplified mobility, enhanced self-confidence, and a newfound ability to don clothing comfortably. Nonetheless, the benefits are juxtaposed with potential risks, encompassing infection, scarring, hematoma, delayed healing, and the challenge of achieving symmetry. A salient discovery is the profound psychological impact of the surgery, as patients consistently report elevated body image satisfaction, heightened self-esteem, and a substantial enhancement in overall quality of life. In summation, this research accentuates the pivotal role of extra skin removal surgery in ameliorating the intricate interplay of physical and psychological difficulties posed by excess skin. By elucidating the diverse procedures, associated risks, and psychological outcomes, the study contributes to a comprehensive and informed comprehension of the surgery's multifaceted effects. Therefore, individuals contemplating this transformative surgical option are equipped with comprehensive insights, ultimately fostering informed decision-making, guided by the expertise of medical professionals.

Keywords: extra skin removal surgery, body contouring, abdominoplasty, brachioplasty, thigh lift, body lift, benefits, risks, psychological effects

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Authors: Liberata Borralho, Saúl N. de Jesus, Adelinda Candeias, Victória Fernández-Puig

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In the last decades, we have witnessed a deterioration in the health of teachers worldwide, reflecting the constant social, political and economic changes. The quality of teaching and the success of students depends on the health status of the teachers, which justifies the importance of periodically evaluating their health. With this purpose, the Teacher’s Health Questionnaire was applied to 15.394 teachers teaching in Portugal and Spain (6.208 Spanish and 9.186 Portuguese) of primary and secondary education (3.482 men, 11.911 women). This questionnaire is specific and includes both the main risks of the teaching profession and the manifestations of teacher well-being, according to the definition recommended by the World Health Organization. A descriptive analysis of the results was carried out, including a study of the dimensions and the differences according to some sociodemographic and professional variables, from an analysis of variance ANOVA, applying the Bonferroni correction. Cluster analysis (K-means) allowed us to obtain cutoff scores to assess health status. The results allow concluding that Portuguese teachers perceive a poor well-being in the performance of their professional activity and that more than half present manifestations in the various dimensions of health deterioration, highlighting the exhaustion and cognitive disorders. In turn, Spanish teachers demonstrate a high level of well-being, being the musculoskeletal dimensions and cognitive disorders the main manifestations of deterioration of health.

Keywords: job prevention, occupational health, teacher’s health, teachers work risks, teacher’s well-being

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Authors: Mohsin Sadaqat, Hilal Anwar Butt

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Following the stock selection guidelines provided by the Sharia Board (SB), we segregate the firms listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) into Sharia Compliant (SC) and Non-Sharia Compliant (NSC) stocks. Subsequently, we form portfolios within each group based on market capitalization and volatility. The purpose is to analyze and compare the performance of these two groups as the SC stocks have lesser diversification opportunities due to SB restrictions. Using data ranging from January 2004 until June 2016, our results indicate that in most of the cases the risk-adjusted returns (alphas) for the returns differential between SC and NCS firms are positive. In addition, the SC firms in comparison to their counterparts in PSX provides excess returns that are hedged against the market, size, and value-based systematic risks factors. Overall, these results reconcile with one prevailing notion that the SC stocks that have lower financial leverage and higher investment in real assets are lesser exposed to market-based risks. Further, the SC firms that are more capitalized and less volatile, perform better than lower capitalized and higher volatile SC and NSC firms. To sum up our results, we do not find any substantial evidence for opportunity loss due to limited diversification opportunities in case of SC firms. To optimally utilize scarce resources, investors should consider SC firms as a candidate in portfolio construction.

Keywords: diversification, performance, sharia compliant stocks, risk adjusted returns

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Authors: Amal Hussain Alkhaiwani, Ghadah Abdullah Almalki

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Recently human errors have increasingly become a very high factor in security breaches that may affect confidential data, and most of the cyber data breaches are caused by human errors. With one individual mistake, the attacker will gain access to the entire network and bypass the implemented access controls without any immediate detection. Unaware employees will be vulnerable to any social engineering cyber-attacks. Providing security awareness to People is part of the company protection process; the cyber risks cannot be reduced by just implementing technology; the human awareness of security will significantly reduce the risks, which encourage changes in staff cyber-awareness. In this paper, we will focus on Human Awareness, human needs to continue the required security education level; we will review human errors and introduce a proposed solution to avoid the breach from occurring again. Recently Saudi Arabia faced many attacks with different methods of social engineering. As Saudi Arabia has become a target to many countries and individuals, we needed to initiate a defense mechanism that begins with awareness to keep our privacy and protect the confidential data against possible intended attacks.

Keywords: cybersecurity, human aspects, human errors, human mistakes, security awareness, Saudi Arabia, security program, security education, social engineering

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Authors: Dieudonne Uwizeye

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Introduction: Diarrhoea is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality among communities living in urban informal settlements of developing countries. It is assumed that mountainous environment introduces variations of the burden among residents of the same settlements. Design and Objective: A cross-sectional study was done in Kigali to explore the effect of mountainous informal settlements on diarrhoea risk variations. Data were collected among 1,152 households through household survey and transect walk to observe the status of sanitation. The outcome variable was the incidence of diarrhoea among household members of any age. The study used the most knowledgeable person in the household as the main respondent. Mostly this was the woman of the house as she was more likely to know the health status of every household member as she plays various roles: mother, wife, and head of the household among others. The analysis used cross tabulation and logistic regression analysis. Results: Results suggest that risks for diarrhoea vary depending on home location in the settlements. Diarrhoea risk increased as the distance from the road increased. The results of the logistic regression analysis indicate the adjusted odds ratio of 2.97 with 95% confidence interval being 1.35-6.55 and 3.50 adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval being 1.61-7.60 in level two and three respectively compared with level one. The status of sanitation within and around homes was also significantly associated with the increase of diarrhoea. Equally, it is indicated that stable households were less likely to have diarrhoea. The logistic regression analysis indicated the adjusted odds ratio of 0.45 with 95% confidence interval being 0.25-0.81. However, the study did not find evidence for a significant association between diarrhoea risks and household socioeconomic status in the multivariable model. It is assumed that environmental factors in mountainous settings prevailed. Households using the available public water sources were more likely to have diarrhoea in their households. Recommendation: The study recommends the provision and extension of infrastructure for improved water, drainage, sanitation and wastes management facilities. Equally, studies should be done to identify the level of contamination and potential origin of contaminants for water sources in the valleys to adequately control the risks for diarrhoea in mountainous urban settings.

Keywords: urbanisation, diarrhoea risk, mountainous environment, urban informal settlements in Rwanda

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Authors: Andrea N. Alarcon, Julian D. Castro, Gloria C. Rojas, Paola A. Vaca, Santiago Ortiz, Gustavo Martinez, Pablo D. Lemoine

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Recently, electoral results across many countries have shown to be inconsistent with rational decision theory, which states that individuals make decisions based on maximizing benefits and reducing risks. An alternative explanation has emerged: Fear and rage-driven vote have been proved to be highly effective for political persuasion and mobilization. This phenomenon has been evident in the 2016 elections in the United States, 2006 elections in Mexico, 1998 elections in Venezuela, and 2004 elections in Bolivia. In Colombia, it has occurred recently in the 2016 plebiscite for peace and 2018 presidential elections. The aim of this study is to explain this phenomenon using cultural cognition theory, referring to the psychological predisposition individuals have to believe that its own and its peer´s behavior is correct and, therefore, beneficial to the entire society. Cultural cognition refers to the tendency of individuals to fit perceived risks, and factual beliefs into group shared values; the Cultural Cognition Worldview Scales (CCWS) measures cultural perceptions through two different dimensions: Individualism-communitarianism and hierarchy-egalitarianism. The former refers to attitudes towards social dominance based on conspicuous and static characteristics (sex, ethnicity or social class), while the latter refers to attitudes towards a social ordering in which it is expected from individuals to guarantee their own wellbeing without society´s or government´s intervention. A probabilistic national sample was obtained from different polls from the consulting and public opinion company Centro Nacional de Consultoría. Sociodemographic data was obtained along with CCWS scores, a subjective measure of left-right ideological placement and vote intention for 2019 Mayor´s elections were also included in the questionnaires. Finally, the question “In your opinion, what is the greatest risk Colombia is facing right now?” was included to identify perceived risk in the population. Preliminary results show that Colombians are highly distributed among hierarchical communitarians and egalitarian individualists (30.9% and 31.7%, respectively), and to a less extent among hierarchical individualists and egalitarian communitarians (19% and 18.4%, respectively). Males tended to be more hierarchical (p < .000) and communitarian (p=.009) than females. ANOVA´s revealed statistically significant differences between groups (quadrants) for the level of schooling, left-right ideological orientation, and stratum (p < .000 for all), and proportion differences revealed statistically significant differences for groups of age (p < .001). Differences and distributions for vote intention and perceived risks are still being processed and results are yet to be analyzed. Results show that Colombians are differentially distributed among quadrants in regard to sociodemographic data and left-right ideological orientation. These preliminary results indicate that this study may shed some light on why Colombians vote the way they do, and future qualitative data will show the fears emerging from the identified values in the CCWS and the relation this has with vote intention.

Keywords: communitarianism, cultural cognition, egalitarianism, hierarchy, individualism, perceived risks

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Authors: Umesh Kumar Singh, Chanchala Joshi

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With increasing dependency on IT infrastructure, the main objective of a system administrator is to maintain a stable and secure network, with ensuring that the network is robust enough against malicious network users like attackers and intruders. Security risk management provides a way to manage the growing threats to infrastructures or system. This paper proposes a framework for risk level estimation which uses vulnerability database National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) National Vulnerability Database (NVD) and the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The proposed framework measures the frequency of vulnerability exploitation; converges this measured frequency with standard CVSS score and estimates the security risk level which helps in automated and reasonable security management. In this paper equation for the Temporal score calculation with respect to availability of remediation plan is derived and further, frequency of exploitation is calculated with determined temporal score. The frequency of exploitation along with CVSS score is used to calculate the security risk level of the system. The proposed framework uses the CVSS vectors for risk level estimation and measures the security level of specific network environment, which assists system administrator for assessment of security risks and making decision related to mitigation of security risks.

Keywords: CVSS score, risk level, security measurement, vulnerability category

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Authors: Olakunle Felix Adekunle

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Risk management is recognised as an essential tool to tackle the inevitable uncertainty associated with business and projects at all levels. But it frequently fails to meet expectations, with projects continuing to run late, over budget or under performing, and business is not gaining the expected benefits. The evident disconnect which often occurs between strategic vision and tactical project delivery typically arises from poorly defined project objectives and inadequate attention to the proactive management of risks that could affect those objectives. One of the main failings in the traditional approach to risk management arises from a narrow focus on the downside, restricted to the technical or operational field, addressing tactical threats to processes, performance or people. This shortcoming can be overcome by widening the scope of risk management to encompass both strategic risks and upside opportunities, creating an integrated approach which can bridge the gap between strategy and tactics. Integrated risk management addresses risk across a variety of levels in the organisation, including strategy and tactics, and covering both opportunity and threat. Effective implementation of integrated risk management can produce a number of benefits to the organisation which are not available from the typical limited-scope risk process. This paper explores how to expand risk management to deliver strategic advantage while retaining its use as a tactical tool.

Keywords: risk management, success, organization, strategy, project, tactis, vision

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Authors: Cui Long (Allen)

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The role of the Arctic in world politics and international relations has increased significantly over the past decades. With its large natural resources, the Arctic region has important geopolitical, strategic, and economic significance. All this determines the interest in it not only of the Arctic states but also of states located far from the Arctic. One of these states is the People's Republic of China. Relations between China and Russia in recent decades have been built on the basis of strategic partnership. Joint projects in the Arctic have become the most important priority area of this partnership. These are projects in the transport and energy fields. A large number of works by Russian scientists are devoted to the Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation. Most authors consider cooperation as a guarantee of stability for China and Russia in a globalized world. However, there are authors who believe that there are separate contradictions in the relations between the Arctic and non-Arctic countries. In their opinion, China sometimes acts as a competitor, and its activities become expansionist. In general, according to the Russian authors, Sino-Russian cooperation is mutually beneficial and is under development. China and Russia have a long way to go in the issue of sustainable development of the Arctic.

Keywords: People’s Republic of China, Russian Federation, Arctic, historiography

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Authors: Santosh Kumar Ketham

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Climate change creating most dramatic and destructive consequences, the result is global warming and sea-level rise, flooding coastal cities around the world forming vulnerable situations affecting in multiple ways: environment, economy, social and political. The aim and goal of the research is to develop cities on water. Taking the problem as an opportunity to bring science, engineering, policies and design together to make a resilient and sustainable floating community on water considering existing/new technologies of floating. The quest is to make sustainable habitat on water to live, work, learn and play.  To make sustainable energy generation and storage alongside maintaining balance of land and marine to conserve Ecosystem. The research would serve as a model for sustainable neighbourhoods designed in a modular way and thus can easily extend or re-arranged, to adapt for future socioeconomic realities.  This research paper studies primarily on climate change problems, effects, risks and opportunities. It does so, through analysing existing case studies, books and writings published on coastal cities and understanding its various aspects for making sustainable habitat.

Keywords: floating cities, flexible modular typologies, rising sea levels, sustainable architecture and urbanism

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Authors: Alisha Khanal, Gokhan Saygili

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It is commonly observed that aftershocks follow the mainshock. Aftershocks continue over a period of time with a decreasing frequency and typically there is not sufficient time for repair and retrofit between a mainshock–aftershock sequence. Usually, aftershocks are smaller in magnitude; however, aftershock ground motion characteristics such as the intensity and duration can be greater than the mainshock due to the changes in the earthquake mechanism and location with respect to the site. The seismic performance of slopes is typically evaluated based on the sliding displacement predicted to occur along a critical sliding surface. Various empirical models are available that predict sliding displacement as a function of seismic loading parameters, ground motion parameters, and site parameters but these models do not include the aftershocks. The seismic risks associated with the post-mainshock slopes ('damaged slopes') subjected to aftershocks is significant. This paper extends the empirical sliding displacement models for flexible slopes subjected to earthquake mainshock-aftershock sequences (a multi hazard approach). A dataset was developed using 144 pairs of as-recorded mainshock-aftershock sequences using the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) database. The results reveal that the combination of mainshock and aftershock increases the seismic demand on slopes relative to the mainshock alone; thus, seismic risks are underestimated if aftershocks are neglected.

Keywords: seismic slope stability, mainshock, aftershock, landslide, earthquake, flexible slopes

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Authors: Zhizhong Yuan, Lili Wang, Chenya Zheng, Wuqi Yang

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How to encourage and support peer-to-peer (P2P) network lending, and effectively monitor the risk of P2P network lending, has become the focus of the Chinese government departments, industrialists, experts and scholars in recent years. The reason is that this convenient online micro-credit service brings a series of credit risks and other issues. Avoiding the risks brought by the P2P network lending model, it can better play a benign role and help China's small and medium-sized private enterprises with vigorous development to solve the capital needs; otherwise, it will bring confusion to the normal financial order. As a form of financial services, P2P network lending has injected new blood into China's non-government finance in the past ten years, and has found a way out for idle funds and made up for the shortage of traditional financial services in China. However, it lacks feasible measures in credit evaluation and government supervision. This paper collects a large amount of data about P2P network lending of China. The data collection comes from the official media of the Chinese government, the public achievements of existing researchers and the analysis and collation of correlation data by the authors. The research content of this paper includes literature review; the current situation of China's P2P network lending development; the risk analysis of P2P network lending in China; the risk prevention strategy of P2P network lending in China. The focus of this paper is to try to find a specific program to strengthen supervision and avoid risks from the perspective of government regulators, operators of P2P network lending platform, investors and users of funds. These main measures include: China needs to develop self-discipline organization of P2P network lending industry and formulate self-discipline norms as soon as possible; establish a regular information disclosure system of P2P network lending platform; establish censorship of credit rating of borrowers; rectify the P2P network lending platform in compliance through the implementation of bank deposition. The results and solutions will benefit all the P2P network lending platforms, creditors, debtors, bankers, independent auditors and government agencies of China and other countries.

Keywords: peer-to-peer(P2P), regulation, risk prevention, supervision

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Authors: Lidija Simunovic

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A Close-out netting cause is a clause within master agreements which reduces credit risks. This clause contains the parties ' advance agreement that the occurrence of a certain event (such as the commencement of bankruptcy proceedings) will result in the termination of the contract and that their mutual claims will be calculated as a net lump-sum to be paid by one party to the other. The legal treatment of the enforceability of close-out netting clauses opens up many legal matters in comparative legal systems because it is not uniformly treated in comparative laws. Certain legal systems take a liberal approach and allow the enforcement of close-out netting clauses. Others are much stricter, and they limit or completely prohibit the enforcement of close-out netting clauses through the mandatory provisions of their national bankruptcy laws. The author analyzes the concept of close-out netting clauses in selected comparative legal systems and examines the differences in their legal treatment by using the historical, analytical, and comparative method. It results that special treatment of the close-out netting in national laws with a liberal approach is often forced by financial industry lobbies and introduced in national laws without the justified reasons. Contrary to that in legal systems with limited or prohibited approach on close-out netting the uncertain enforceability of the close-out netting clause causes potential credit risks. The detected discrepancy on the national legal treatment and national financial markets regarding close-out netting lead to the conclusion to author’s best knowledge that is not possible to use any national model of close-out netting as a role model which perfectly fits all.

Keywords: close-out netting clauses, derivatives, insolvency, offsetting

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Authors: Juariah Salam Suryadi

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North coast (Pantura) line is known as a high-risk area related to reproductive health. This is because along the line, there are many food stalls and entertainment industries that at night the function changed to be sexual transaction areas. This business line also facilitate circulation and transaction of drug and substance abuse. The environment conditions can influence adolescents who live in this area. It is because of adolescence characteristics that has high curiosity and looking for their identities. Therefore, purposes of this study were to explore reproductive health behaviour of early adolescents who lived in Pantura line and to suggest intervention based on the adolescents reproductive health conditions. This study was conducted in November 2016 among the seventh-grade students of Pusakajaya Junior High School 1 and 2, Subang District. Number of respondents were 269 students (Male=135, Female=134). The students were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. Some teachers also interviewed to complement the data. The quantitative data was analyzed with univariate analysis, while content analysis was used for the qualitative data. Findings of this study showed that 85,2% of male students were smoker. Most of them started smoking at elementary school. Male students who often drunk alcohol were about 25,2% and all of them initiated to drink at elementary school. There were about 21,5% of male students ever used drug and substance abuse. There were 54,6% of the students that confessed having a lover. Most of them were female students. Sexual behaviour that ever done with their lovers were: holding hands (37,4%), kissing (4%) and embracing (6,8%). Although all of the students claimed to have never had sexual intercourse, but 5,9% of them said that they had friends who have had sexual intercourse. Most of the students also had friends with negative characteristics. Their friends were smoker (82,2%), drinker (53,2%) and drug abuse (42%). Most of the students recognized that they took the risks behaviour to get pleasure with their peers. Information from the teachers indicated that most problem of male students were smoking and drug and substance abuse; while sexuality including unwanted pregnancies were reproductive problems of many female students. Therefore, It is recommended to enhance understanding of the adolescents about risks of unhealthy behaviour through continuing reproductive health education, both in school and out of school. Policy support to create positive social environment and adolescents friendly is also suggested.

Keywords: reproductive health, behaviour, early adolescents, pantura line

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Authors: Vitalis Okwuchukwu Opara

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The task of nation building primarily consist in welding together, diverse cultural groups into a united nation state, which develops a centripetal political culture that makes its people see themselves as members of one nation linked together by more reliable ties than the coercion offered by the state. Comparatively on the contrary, most countries in the world today are comprised of diverse nationalities, each with its unique set of norms and values, which often come into conflict with others. As such, the task of nation building is in uniting these diverse cultural groups into a united nation state and various human elements that make up its geopolitical zone. The most outstanding impediment to achieving this task is unemployment. Unemployment is like a peril against the nation building. Unemployment is an obstacle for growth of a nation. Often it is said that the wise see obstacles as stepping-stones to advance further. The pangs of unemployment impede nation building such that sometimes it takes very long time to do away with the problem. In recent times, there has been a revolutionary wind blowing across the world. This wind is bound to wake up nations leaders to sit up to their responsibility. Unemployment causes youth restiveness, brings leaders to their knees. It breeds problem. This work is intended to expose the pangs of unemployment and its impending peril to nation building.

Keywords: pangs, unemployment, obstacles, nation-building

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Authors: Simon Huston, Ebraheim Lahbash, Ali Parsa

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The development of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) into a regional trade, tourism, finance and logistics hub has transformed its real estate markets. However, speculative activity and price volatility remain concerns. UAE residential market values (MV) are exposed to fluctuations in capital flows and migration which in turn are affected by geopolitical uncertainty, oil price volatility, and global investment market sentiment. Internally, a complex interplay between administrative boundaries, land tenure, building quality and evolving location characteristics fragments UAE residential property markets. In short, the UAE Residential Valuation System (UAE-RVS) confronts multiple challenges to collect, filter and analyze relevant information in complex and dynamic spatial and capital markets. A robust (RVS) can mitigate the risk of unhelpful volatility, speculative excess or investment mistakes. The research outlines the institutional, ontological, dynamic, and epistemological issues at play. We highlight the importance of system capabilities, valuation standard salience and stakeholders trust.

Keywords: valuation, property rights, information, institutions, trust, salience

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Authors: Tayfun Salihoğlu

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Following the Law No: 6306 on Transformation of Disaster Risk Areas, urban transformation in Turkey found its legal basis. In the best practices all over the World, the urban transformation was shaped as part of comprehensive social programs through the discourses of renewing the economic, social and physical degraded parts of the city, producing spaces resistant to earthquakes and other possible disasters and creating a livable environment. In Turkish practice, a contradictory process is observed. In this study, it is aimed to develop a method for better understanding of the urban space in terms of disaster risks in order to constitute a basis for decisions in Kocaeli Urban Transformation Master Plan, which is being prepared by Kocaeli Metropolitan Municipality. The spatial unit used in the study is the 50x50 meter grids. In order to reflect the multidimensionality of urban transformation, three basic components that have spatial data in Kocaeli were identified. These components were named as 'Problems in Built-up Areas', 'Disaster Risks arising from Geological Conditions of the Ground and Problems of Buildings', and 'Inadequacy of Urban Services'. Each component was weighted and scored for each grid. In order to delimitate urban transformation zones Optimized Outlier Analysis (Local Moran I) in the ArcGIS 10.6.1 was conducted to test the type of distribution (clustered or scattered) and its significance on the grids by assuming the weighted total score of the grid as Input Features. As a result of this analysis, it was found that the weighted total scores were not significantly clustering at all grids in urban space. The grids which the input feature is clustered significantly were exported as the new database to use in further mappings. Total Score Map reflects the significant clusters in terms of weighted total scores of 'Problems in Built-up Areas', 'Disaster Risks arising from Geological Conditions of the Ground and Problems of Buildings' and 'Inadequacy of Urban Services'. Resulting grids with the highest scores are the most likely candidates for urban transformation in this citywide study. To categorize urban space in terms of urban transformation, Grouping Analysis in ArcGIS 10.6.1 was conducted to data that includes each component scores in significantly clustered grids. Due to Pseudo Statistics and Box Plots, 6 groups with the highest F stats were extracted. As a result of the mapping of the groups, it can be said that 6 groups can be interpreted in a more meaningful manner in relation to the urban space. The method presented in this study can be magnified due to the availability of more spatial data. By integrating with other data to be obtained during the planning process, this method can contribute to the continuation of research and decision-making processes of urban transformation master plans on a more consistent basis.

Keywords: urban transformation, GIS, disaster risk assessment, Kocaeli

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Authors: Knol Hester, Müller Swantje, Danchenko Natalya

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Objective: Falls in older people cause an autonomy loss and result in an economic burden. LCare is an AI-based application to manage fall risks. The study's aim was to assess the effect of LCare use on patient outcomes in nursing homes in Germany. Methods: LCare identifies and monitors fall risks through a 3D-gait analysis and a digital questionnaire, resulting in tailored recommendations on fall prevention. A study was conducted with AOK Baden-Württemberg (01.09.2019- 31.05.2021) in 16 care facilities. Assessments at baseline and follow-up included: a fall risk score; falls (baseline: fall history in the past 12 months; follow-up: a fall record since the last analysis); fall-related injuries and hospitalizations; gait speed; fear of falling; psychological stress; nurses experience on app use. Results: 94 seniors were aged 65-99 years at the initial analysis (average 84±7 years); 566 mobility analyses were carried out in total. On average, the fall risk was reduced by 17.8 % as compared to the baseline (p<0.05). The risk of falling decreased across all subgroups, including a trend in dementia patients (p=0.06), constituting 43% of analyzed patients, and patients with walking aids (p<0.05), constituting 76% of analyzed patients. There was a trend (p<0.1) towards fewer falls and fall-related injuries and hospitalizations (baseline: 23 seniors who fell, 13 injury consequences, 9 hospitalizations; follow-up: 14 seniors who fell, 2 injury consequences, 0 hospitalizations). There was a 16% improvement in gait speed (p<0.05). Residents reported less fear of falling and psychological stress by 38% in both outcomes (p<0.05). 81% of nurses found LCare effective. Conclusions: In the presented study, the use of LCare app was associated with a reduction of fall risk among nursing home residents, improvement of health-related outcomes, and a trend toward reduction in injuries and hospitalizations. LCare may help to improve senior resident care and save healthcare costs.

Keywords: falls, digital healthcare, falls prevention, nursing homes, seniors, AI, digital assessment

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Authors: Magda Posani, Maria Do Rosario Veiga, Vasco Peixoto De Freitas

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The presented research considers the hygrothermal data acquired in the municipal library of Porto. The library is housed in an XVIII century convent and, among all the rooms in the construction, one, in particular, was chosen for the monitoring campaign because of the presence of a great number of historic books. Temperature and relative humidity, as well as CO₂ concentration, were measured for six consecutive months, in the period December 24th - June 24th. The indoor environment of the building is controlled with a heating and cooling system that is turned on only during the opening hours of the library. The ventilation rate is low because the windows are kept closed, and there is no forced ventilation. The micro-climate is analyzed in terms of users’ comfort and degradation risks for historic books and valuable building surfaces. Through a comparison between indoor and outdoor measured hygrothermal data, indoor relative humidity appears very stable. The influence of the hygroscopicity of books on the stabilization of indoor relative humidity is therefore investigated in detail. The paper finally discusses the benefits given by the presence of historic books in libraries with intermittent heating and cooling. The possibility of obtaining a comfortable and stable indoor climate with low use of HVAC systems in these conditions, while avoiding degradation risks for books and historic building components, is further debated.

Keywords: books, historic buildings, hygroscopicity, relative humidity

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Authors: Md. Abdul Kader

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Several reports released by Global Financial Integrity (GFI) in recent times have identified Bangladesh as being among the worst affected countries to the scourge of money laundering (ML) and terrorist financing (TF). The money laundering (ML) and terrorist financing (TF) risks associated with conventional finance are generally well identified and understood by the relevant national authorities. There is, however, no common understanding of ML/TF risks associated with Islamic Banking. This paper attempts to examine the issues of money laundering (ML) and terrorist financing (TF) in Islamic Banks of Bangladesh. This study also investigates the risk factors associated with Islamic Banking system of Bangladesh that are favorable for ML and TF and which prevent the government to control such issues in the Islamic Banks of Bangladesh. Qualitative research methods were employed by studying various reports from journals, newspapers, bank reports and periodicals. In addition, five ex-bankers who were in the policy making bodies of three Islamic Banks were also interviewed. Findings suggest that government policies regarding Islamic Banking system in Bangladesh are not well defined and clear. Shariah law, that is the guiding principle of Islamic Banking, is not well recognized by the government policy makers, and thus they left the responsibility to the governing bodies of the banks. Other challenges that were found in the study are: the complexity of some Islamic banking products, the different forms of relationship between the banks and their clients, the inadequate ability and skill in the supervision of Islamic finance, particularly in jurisdictions, to evaluate their activities. All these risk factors paved the ground for ML and TF in the Islamic Banks of Bangladesh. However, due to unconventional nature of Banking and lack of investigative reporting on Islamic Banking, this study could not cover the whole picture of the ML/TF of Islamic Banks of Bangladesh. However, both qualitative documents and interviewees confirmed that Islamic Banking in Bangladesh could be branded as risky when it comes to money laundering and terror financing. This study recommends that the central bank authorities who supervise Islamic finance and the government policy makers should obtain a greater understanding of the specific ML/TF risks that may arise in Islamic Banks and develop a proper response. The study findings are expected to considerably impact Islamic banking management and policymakers to develop strong and appropriate policy to enhance transparency, accountability, and efficiency in banking sector. The regulatory bodies can consider the findings to disseminate anti money laundering and terror financing related rules and regulations.

Keywords: money laundering, terror financing, islamic banking, bangladesh

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Authors: Qisheng Hu, Jianglei Han, Yue Yang, My Hoa Ha

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When a company is considering purchasing software for commercial use, contract risk assessment is critical to identify risks to mitigate the potential adverse business impact, e.g., security, financial and regulatory risks. Contract risk assessment requires reviewers with specialized knowledge and time to evaluate the legal documents manually. Specifically, validating contracts for a software vendor requires the following steps: manual screening, interpreting legal documents, and extracting risk-prone segments. To automate the process, we proposed a framework to assist legal contract document risk identification, leveraging pre-trained deep learning models and natural language processing techniques. Given a set of pre-defined risk evaluation problems, our framework utilizes the pre-trained transformer-based models for question-answering to identify risk-prone sections in a contract. Furthermore, the question-answering model encodes the concatenated question-contract text and predicts the start and end position for clause extraction. Due to the limited labelled dataset for training, we leveraged transfer learning by fine-tuning the models with the CUAD dataset to enhance the model. On a dataset comprising 287 contract documents and 2000 labelled samples, our best model achieved an F1 score of 0.687.

Keywords: contract risk assessment, NLP, transfer learning, question answering

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

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Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analyzed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria.

Keywords: decision making, system of system, cross-border, infrastructure project

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Authors: Zair Firdaous, Fourka Mohamed, Elfelsoufi Zoubir

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The arrival of e-commerce has changed the supply chain management on the operational level as well as on the organization and strategic and even tactical decisions of the companies. The optimization of resources is an issue that is needed on the tactical and operational strategic plan. This work considers the allocation of resources in the case of pure players that have launched online sales. The aim is to improve the level of customer satisfaction and maintaining the benefits of e-retailer and of its cooperators and reducing costs and risks. We first modeled the B2C chain with all operations that integrates and possible scenarios since online retailers offer a wide selection of personalized service. The personalized services that online shopping companies offer to the clients can be embodied in many aspects, such as the customizations of payment, the distribution methods, and after-sales service choices. Every aspect of customized service has several modes. At that time, we analyzed the optimization problems of supply chain resource in customized online shopping service mode. Then, we realized an optimization model and algorithm for the development based on the analysis of the of the B2C supply chain resources. It is a multi-objective optimization that considers the collaboration of resources in operations, time and costs but also the risks and the quality of services as well as dynamic and uncertain characters related to the request.

Keywords: supply chain resource, e-commerce, pure-players, optimization

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Authors: Stefanie Behncke

Abstract:

This paper analyses the effects of different macroprudential policy measures that have recently been implemented in Switzerland. Among them is the activation and the increase of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) and a tightening of loan-to-value (LTV) requirements. These measures were introduced to limit systemic risks in the Swiss mortgage and real estate markets. They were meant to affect mortgage growth, mortgage risks, and banks’ capital buffers. Evaluation of their quantitative effects provides insights for Swiss policymakers when reassessing their policy. It is also informative for policymakers in other countries who plan to introduce macroprudential instruments. We estimate the effects of the different macroprudential measures with a Differences-in-Differences estimator. Banks differ with respect to the relative importance of mortgages in their portfolio, their riskiness, and their capital buffers. Thus, some of the banks were more affected than others by the CCB, while others were more affected by the LTV requirements. Our analysis is made possible by an unusually informative bank panel data set. It combines data on newly issued mortgage loans and quantitative risk indicators such as LTV and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios with supervisory information on banks’ capital and liquidity situation and balance sheets. Our results suggest that the LTV cap of 90% was most effective. The proportion of new mortgages with a high LTV ratio was significantly reduced. This result does not only apply to the 90% LTV, but also to other threshold values (e.g. 80%, 75%) suggesting that the entire upper part of the LTV distribution was affected. Other outcomes such as the LTI distribution, the growth rates of mortgages and other credits, however, were not significantly affected. Regarding the activation and the increase of the CCB, we do not find any significant effects: neither LTV/LTI risk parameters nor mortgage and other credit growth rates were significantly reduced. This result may reflect that the size of the CCB (1% of relevant residential real estate risk-weighted assets at activation, respectively 2% at the increase) was not sufficiently high enough to trigger a distinct reaction between the banks most likely to be affected by the CCB and those serving as controls. Still, it might be have been effective in increasing the resilience in the overall banking system. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that targeted macroprudential policy measures can contribute to financial stability. In line with findings by others, caps on LTV reduced risk taking in Switzerland. To fully assess the effectiveness of the CCB, further experience is needed.

Keywords: banks, financial stability, macroprudential policy, mortgages

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Authors: Mustapha Achibane, Imane Allam

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Since the nineties, all Moroccan banking institutions have to respect an arsenal of prudential ratios. The respect of these prudential measures aims to ensure the financial system stability. In order to do so, regulatory authorities tried to reduce the financial and operational risks incurred by the banking entities. Meanwhile, regulatory authorities demanded a balance sheet management work from banks. They also asked them to establish a management control system to manage operational risk, as well as an effort in terms of incurred risk-based commitments. Therefore, the prudential approach has a macroeconomic nature and it is presented as a determinant of the operational, microeconomic approach. This operational approach takes the form of a strategy that each banking entity must develop to manage the different banking risks. This study seeks to analyze the problem of risk management between the prudential and the operational approaches. It was processed through a literature review followed by an analysis of the Moroccan banking sector’s performance. At first, we will reconcile the inductive logic and then, the analytical one. The first approach consists of analyzing the phenomenon from a normative and conceptual perspective, while the second one will consist of considering the Moroccan banking system and analyzing the behavior of Moroccan banking entities in terms of risk management and performance. The results identified a favorable growth in terms of performance, despite the huge provisioning effort made to meet the international standards and the harmonization of the regulations.

Keywords: banking performance, financial intermediation, operational approach, prudential standards, risk management

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Authors: Roman Kusaiko

Abstract:

For decades, remaking was one of the film industry’s main practices but has become vivid in recent years. The latest geopolitical developments, though, are becoming a new challenge for filmmakers regarding cultural landscapes and contextual differences. Deglobalization may also affect transnational remaking practices. Thus, these upcoming challenges can be addressed through the analysis of contemporary academic thought, primarily from adaptation and film studies and their understanding of the issues of transmediality and how it affects film remaking. However, the analysis would be insufficient without conducting case studies. This paper is part of broader research about transnational remaking practices and their cultural and contextual specifics. This paper aims to understand whether shifting medium affects remaking as a critical category and present case studies of the popular Hong Kong motion picture Infernal Affairs and its transition into the Japanese remake Double Face. Consequently, the analysis of their contextual distinctions will lead to the correct categorization of the transnational remakes allowing scholars and filmmakers to better understand the existing remaking practices and whether they affect the final result.

Keywords: cinema, context, culture, films, remaking, transmediality

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Authors: Schadrack Mwizerwa

Abstract:

The characterization and prediction of landslides are crucial for assessing geological hazards and mitigating risks to infrastructure and communities. This research aims to develop a probabilistic framework for analyzing excavation-induced landslides, which is fundamental for assessing geological hazards and mitigating risks to infrastructure and communities. The study uses Hermite polynomial chaos, a non-stationary random process, to analyze the stability of a slope and characterize the failure probability of a real landslide induced by highway construction excavation. The correlation within the data is captured using the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion theory, and the finite element method is used to analyze the slope's stability. The research contributes to the field of landslide characterization by employing advanced random field approaches, providing valuable insights into the complex nature of landslide behavior and the effectiveness of advanced probabilistic models for risk assessment and management. The data collected from the Baiyuzui landslide, induced by highway construction, is used as an illustrative example. The findings highlight the importance of considering the probabilistic nature of landslides and provide valuable insights into the complex behavior of such hazards.

Keywords: Hermite polynomial chaos, Karhunen-Loeve, slope stability, probabilistic analysis

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Authors: Firdaous Zair, Zoubir Elfelsoufi, Mohammed Fourka

Abstract:

The allocation of resources is an issue that is needed on the tactical and operational strategic plan. This work considers the allocation of resources in the case of pure players, manufacturers and Click & Mortars that have launched online sales. The aim is to improve the level of customer satisfaction and maintaining the benefits of e-retailer and of its cooperators and reducing costs and risks. Our contribution is a decision support system and tool for improving the allocation of resources in logistics chains e-commerce B2C context. We first modeled the B2C chain with all operations that integrates and possible scenarios since online retailers offer a wide selection of personalized service. The personalized services that online shopping companies offer to the clients can be embodied in many aspects, such as the customizations of payment, the distribution methods, and after-sales service choices. In addition, every aspect of customized service has several modes. At that time, we analyzed the optimization problems of supply chain resource allocation in customized online shopping service mode, which is different from the supply chain resource allocation under traditional manufacturing or service circumstances. Then we realized an optimization model and algorithm for the development based on the analysis of the allocation of the B2C supply chain resources. It is a multi-objective optimization that considers the collaboration of resources in operations, time and costs but also the risks and the quality of services as well as dynamic and uncertain characters related to the request.

Keywords: e-commerce, supply chain, B2C, optimisation, resource allocation

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Authors: Naresh Kumar Verma

Abstract:

Nuclear energy being adapted as a renewable energy source and its production by developing countries has turned into a major strategic concern and politics by the developed world. The West seem to be the sole proprietor of such energy source and any country opting for such energy production either face significant hurdles or geopolitical challenges in developing such energy source. History of West Asia is full of interference by external powers which has been integral in the incessant conflict in the region. Whether it was the creation of Israel, the Gulf war of 1991, or the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and more recently the Iranian nuclear conundrum, the soil of West Asia has always been a witness to the play of extra regional powers game. Iran, being a theocratic state has been facing such threats and challenges, regarding its intentions and its capability in such energy production. The paper will try to assess the following issues: -Politics of Renewable Energy Generation. -Geographical and strategic significance of Iran’s nuclear programme. -Challenges in the path of Iran developing nuclear energy as a RE source. -The interests of the regional and extra-regional actors in challenging Iranian Nuclear Programme.

Keywords: developing countries, geopolitics, Iran, nuclear energy, renewable energy

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Authors: Reza Mohammadzadeh

Abstract:

The major challenges in geotechnical engineering in underground spaces arise from uncertainties and different probabilities. The collection, collation, and collaboration of existing data to incorporate them in analysis and design for given prospect evaluation would be a reliable, practical problem solving method under uncertainty. Machine learning (ML) is a subfield of artificial intelligence in statistical science which applies different techniques (e.g., Regression, neural networks, support vector machines, decision trees, random forests, genetic programming, etc.) on data to automatically learn and improve from them without being explicitly programmed and make decisions and predictions. In this paper, a conceptual database schema of geotechnical risks in underground coal mining based on a cloud system architecture has been designed. A new approach of risk assessment using a three-dimensional risk matrix supported by the level of knowledge (LoK) has been proposed in this model. Subsequently, the model workflow methodology stages have been described. In order to train data and LoK models deployment, an ML platform has been implemented. IBM Watson Studio, as a leading data science tool and data-driven cloud integration ML platform, is employed in this study. As a Use case, a data set of geotechnical hazards and risk assessment in underground coal mining were prepared to demonstrate the performance of the model, and accordingly, the results have been outlined.

Keywords: data model, geotechnical risks, machine learning, underground coal mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 246