Search results for: futures

Authors: Pao-Peng Hsu, Ying-Hsiu Chen

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Historical data shows that there were high correlations among TAIEX Futures, Electronic Sector Index Futures, Finance Sector Index Futures and Taiwan Top 50 ETF. The performance under various futures is also discussed. We found that the worst portfolio is consisted of T50-ETF and T50-ETF futures and best portfolio is consisted of T50-ETF and TF. It implies that the annual return of a portfolio increases if a portfolio’s risk diversifies.

Keywords: arbitrage opportunities, ETF, futures, TAIEX

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Authors: Rancy Chepchirchir Kosgey, John Olukuru

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This study examines the impact of introduction of futures trading on the spot price volatility in the commodity market. The paper considers the United States of America, South Africa and Ethiopian economies. Three commodities i.e. coffee, maize and wheat from New York Merchantile Exchange, South African Futures Exchange and Ethiopian Commodity Exchange are analyzed. ARCH LM test is used to check for heteroskedasticity and GARCH and EGARCH are used to check for the behavior of volatility between the pre- and post-futures periods. For all the three economies, the results indicate presence of the ARCH effect in the log returns. For conditional and unconditional variances; spot price volatility for coffee has decreased after futures trading in all the economies and the EGARCH has also shown reduction in persistence of volatility in the post-futures period in the three economies; while that of maize has reduced for the Ethiopian economy while there has been an increase in both the US and South African economies. For wheat, the conditional variance has been found to rise in the post-futures period in all the three economies.

Keywords: derivatives, futures exchange, agricultural commodities, spot price volatility

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Authors: Mark Andrew

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Geopolitical tensions are at a thirty-year high, and the pace of technological innovation is driving asymmetry in force capabilities between nation states and between non-state actors. Technology futures are a vital component of defence capability growth, and investments in technology futures need to be informed by accurate and reliable forecasts of the options for ‘systems of systems’ innovation, development, and deployment. This paper describes a method for forecasting technology futures developed through an analysis of four key systems’ development stages, namely: technology domain categorisation, scanning results examining novel systems’ signals and signs, potential system-of systems’ implications in warfare theatres, and political ramifications in terms of funding and development priorities. The method has been applied to several technology domains, including physical systems (e.g., nano weapons, loitering munitions, inflight charging, and hypersonic missiles), biological systems (e.g., molecular virus weaponry, genetic engineering, brain-computer interfaces, and trans-human augmentation), and information systems (e.g., sensor technologies supporting situation awareness, cyber-driven social attacks, and goal-specification challenges to proliferation and alliance testing). Although the current application of the method has been team-centred using paper-based rapid prototyping and iteration, the application of autonomous language models (such as GPT-3) is anticipated as a next-stage operating platform. The importance of forecasting accuracy and reliability is considered a vital element in guiding technology development to afford stronger contingencies as ideological changes are forecast to expand threats to ecology and earth systems, possibly eclipsing the traditional vulnerabilities of nation states. The early results from the method will be subjected to ground truthing using longitudinal investigation.

Keywords: forecasting, technology futures, uncertainty, complexity

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Authors: Daniel Schimmelpfennig

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This paper attempts to delineate the idea to curate the leveling up for whole-systems change. Curation is the act fo select, organize, look after, or present information from a professional point of view through expert knowledge. The trans-paradigmatic, trans-contextual, trans-disciplinary, trans-perspective of trans-media futures studies hopes to enable a move from a monochrome intellectual pursuit towards breathing a higher dimensionality. Progressing to the next level to equip actors for whole-systems change is in consideration of the commonly known symptoms of our time as well as in anticipation of future challenges, both a necessity and desirability. Systems of collective intelligence could potentially scale regenerative, adaptive, and anticipatory capacities. How could such a curation then be enacted and implemented, to initiate the process of leveling-up? The suggestion here is to focus on the metasystem transition, the bio-digital fusion, namely, by merging neurosciences, the ontological design of money as our operating system, and our understanding of the billions of years of time-proven permutations in nature, biomimicry, and biological metaphors like symbiogenesis. Evolutionary cybernetics accompanies the process of whole-systems change.

Keywords: bio-digital fusion, evolutionary cybernetics, metasystem transition, symbiogenesis, transmedia futures studies

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Authors: Andrew Clark

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McCauley, Bassler, and Gunaratne show that integration I(d) processes as used in economics and finance do not necessarily produce stationary increments, which are required to determine causality in both the short term and the long term. This paper follows their lead and shows I(d) aluminum cash and futures log prices at daily and weekly intervals do not have stationary increments, which means prior causality studies using I(d) processes need to be re-examined. Wavelets based on undifferenced cash and futures log prices do have stationary increments and are used along with transfer entropy (versus cointegration) to measure causality. Wavelets exhibit causality at most daily time scales out to 1 year, and weekly time scales out to 1 year and more. To determine stationarity, localized stationary wavelets are used. LSWs have the benefit, versus other means of testing for stationarity, of using multiple hypothesis tests to determine stationarity. As informational flows exist between cash and futures at daily and weekly intervals, the aluminum market is efficient. Therefore, hedges used by producers and consumers of aluminum need not have a big concern in terms of the underestimation of hedge ratios. Questions about arbitrage given efficiency are addressed in the paper.

Keywords: transfer entropy, nonstationary increments, wavelets, localized stationary wavelets, localized stationary wavelets

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Authors: Wenwen Liu, Robert Burton, Simon McKeown

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Climate change is seriously threatening human security and development, leading to global warming and economic, political, and social chaos. Many artists have created visual responses that challenge perceptions on climate change, actively guiding people to think about the climate issues and potential crises after urban industrialization and explore positive solutions. This project is an interdisciplinary and intertextual study where art practice is informed by culture, philosophy, psychology, ecology, and science. By correlating theory and artistic practice, it studies how art practice creates a new way of understanding climate issues and uses art as a way of exploring speculative futures. In the context of practical-based research, arts-based practice as research and creative practice as interdisciplinary research are applied alternately to seek the original solution and new knowledge. Through creative art practice, this project has established new visual ways of looking at climate change and has developed it into a new model to generate more possibilities, an alternative social imagination. It not only encourages people to think and find a sustainable speculative future conducive to all species but also proves that people have the ability to realize positive futures.

Keywords: climate change, creative practice as interdisciplinary research, arts-based practice as research, creative art practice, speculative future

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Authors: Boulis M. Ibrahim, Iordanis A. Kalaitzoglou

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A micro structural pricing model is proposed in which price components account for learning by incorporating changing expectations of the trading intensity and the risk level of incoming trades. An analysis of European carbon futures transactions finds expected trading intensity to increase the information component and decrease the liquidity component of price changes, but at different rates. Among the results, the expected persistence in trading intensity explains the majority of the auto correlations in the level and the conditional volatility of price changes, helps predict hourly patterns in the bid–ask spread and differentiates between the impact of buy versus sell and continuing versus reversing trades.

Keywords: CO2 emission allowances, market microstructure, duration, price discovery

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Authors: Elisabetta Cianfanelli, Maria Claudia Coppola, Margherita Tufarelli

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Design practices throughout history return a critical understanding of society since they always conveyed values and meanings aimed at (re)framing reality by acting in everyday life: here, design gains cultural and normative character, since its artifacts, services, and environments hold the power to intercept, influence and inspire thoughts, behaviors, and relationships. In this sense, design can be persuasive, engaging in the production of worlds and, as such, acting in the space between poietics and politics so that chasing preferable futures and their aesthetic strategies becomes a matter full of political responsibility. This resonates with contemporary landscapes of radical interdependencies challenging designers to focus on complex socio-technical systems and to better support values such as equality and justice for both humans and nonhumans. In fact, it is in times of crisis and structural uncertainty that designers turn into visionaries at the service of society, envisioning scenarios and dwelling in the territories of imagination to conceive new fictions and frictions to be added to the thickness of the real. Here, design’s main tasks are to develop options, to increase the variety of choices, to cultivate its role as scout, jester, agent provocateur for the public, so that design for transformation emerges, making an explicit commitment to society, furthering structural change in a proactive and synergic manner. However, the exploration of possible futures is both a trap and a trampoline because, although it embodies a radical research tool, it raises various challenges when the design process goes further in the translation of such vision into an artefact - whether tangible or intangible -, through which it should deliver that bit of future into everyday experience. Today designers are making up new tools and practices to tackle current wicked challenges, combining their approaches with other disciplinary domains: futuring through design, thus, rises from research strands like speculative design, design fiction, and critical design, where the blending of design approaches and futures thinking brings an action-oriented and product-based approach to strategic insights. The contribution positions at the intersection of those approaches, aiming at discussing design’s tools of inquiry through which it is possible to grasp the agency of imagined futures into present time. Since futures are not remote, they actively participate in creating path-dependent decisions, crystallized into designed artifacts par excellence, prototypes, and their conceptual other, provotypes: with both being unfinished and multifaceted, the first ones are effective in reiterating solutions to problems already framed, while the second ones prove to be useful when the goal is to explore and break boundaries, bringing closer preferable futures. By focusing on some provotypes throughout history which challenged markets and, above all, social and cultural structures, the contribution’s final aim is understanding the knowledge produced by provotypes, understood as design spaces where designs’s humanistic side might help developing a deeper sensibility about uncertainty and, most of all, the unfinished feature of societal artifacts, whose experimentation would leave marks and traces to build up f(r)ictions as vital sparks of plurality and collective life.

Keywords: speculative design, provotypes, design knowledge, political theory

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Authors: Virginia Dickson-Swift, Amanda Kenny, Jane Farmer, Sarah Larkins, Karen Carlisle, Helen Hickson

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In this presentation, we will focus on the methods of Remote Services Futures (RSF), an evidence-based method of community participation that was developed in Scotland. Using oral health as the focus, we will discuss the ways that RSF can be used to achieve sustainable engagement with stakeholders from various parts of the community. We will describe our findings of using RSF methods to engage with rural communities, including the steps involved and what happened when we asked people about the oral health services that they thought were needed in their community. We found that most community members started by thinking that a public dental clinic was required in every community, which is not a sustainable health service delivery option. Through a series of facilitated workshops, communities were able to discuss and prioritise their needs and develop a costed plan for their community which will ensure sustainable service delivery into the future. Our study highlights the complexities of decision making in rural communities. It is important to ensure that when communities participate in health care planning that the outcomes are practical, feasible and sustainable.

Keywords: community participation, sustainable health planning, Remote Services Futures, rural communities

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Authors: Alireza Naserpoor

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Derivatives are the most important innovation which has happened in the past decades. When it comes to financial markets, it has changed the whole way of operations of stock, commodities and currency market. Beside a lot of advantages, Conventional derivatives contracts have some disadvantages too. Some problems have been caused by derivatives contain raising Volatility, increasing Bankruptcies and causing financial crises. Standard Parallel Salam contract as an Islamic financial product meanwhile is a financing instrument can be used for risk management by investors. Standard Parallel Salam is a Shari’ah-Compliant contract. Furthermore, it is an alternative to conventional derivatives. Despite the fact that the unstructured types of that, has been used in several Islamic countries, This contract as a structured and standard financial instrument introduced in Iran Mercantile Exchange in 2014. In this paper after introducing parallel Salam, we intend to examine a collection of international experience and local measure regarding launching standard parallel Salam contract and proceed to describe standard scenarios for trading this instrument and practical experience in Iran Mercantile Exchange about this instrument. Afterwards, we make a comparison between SPS and Futures contracts as a conventional derivative. Standard parallel salam contract as an Islamic financial product, can be used for risk management by investors. SPS is a Shariah-Compliant contract. Furthermore it is an alternative to conventional derivatives. This contract as a structured and standard financial instrument introduced in Iran Mercantile Exchange in 2014. despite the fact that the unstructured types of that, has been used in several Islamic countries. In this article after introducing parallel salam, we intend to examine a collection of international experience and local measure regarding launching standard parallel salam contract and proceed to describe standard scenarios for trading this instrument containing two main approaches in SPS using, And practical experience in IME about this instrument Afterwards, a comparison between SPS and Futures contracts as a conventional derivatives.

Keywords: futures contracts, hedging, shari’ah compliant instruments, standard parallel salam

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Authors: Antonia Syn

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Politicians’ outlooks on the nature of energy futures and an ‘Energy Transition’ have evolved considerably alongside a steady movement towards renewable energies, buttressed by lower technology costs, rising environmental concerns, and favourable national policy decisions. This paper seeks to examine the degree to which an energy transition has become an incontrovertible ‘status quo’ in parliament, and whether politicians share similar understandings of energy futures or narrate different stories under the same label. Parliamentarians construct different understandings of the same reality, in the form of co-existing and competing discourses, shaping and restricting how policy problems and solutions are understood and tackled. Approaching energy policymaking from a parliamentary discourse perspective draws directly from actors’ concrete statements, offering an alternative to policy literature debates revolving around inductive policy theories. This paper uses computer-assisted discourse analysis to describe fundamental discursive changes in British parliamentary debates around energy futures. By applying correspondence cluster analyses to Hansard transcripts from 1986 to 2010, we empirically measure the policy positions of Labour and Conservative politicians’ parliamentary speeches during legislatively salient moments preceding significant energy transition-related policy decisions. Results show the concept of a technology-based, market-driven transition towards fossil-free and nuclear-free renewables integration converged across Labour and the Conservatives within three decades. Specific storylines underwent significant change, particularly in relation to international outlooks, environmental framings, treatments of risk, and increases in rhetoric. This study contributes to a better understanding of the role politics plays in the energy transition, highlighting how politicians’ values and beliefs inevitably determine and delimit creative policymaking.

Keywords: quantitative discourse analysis, energy transition, renewable energy, British parliament, public policy

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Authors: Amanda Kenny, Virginia Dickson-Swift, Jane Farmer, Sarah Larkins, Karen Carlisle, Helen Hickson

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Rural ECOH (Engaging Communities in Oral Health) is a collaborative project that connects policy makers, service providers and community members. The aim of the project is to empower community members to determine what is important for their community and to design the services that they need. This three-year project is currently underway in six rural communities across Australia. This study is specifically focused on Remote Services Futures (RSF), an evidence-based method of community participation that was developed in Scotland. The findings highlight the complexities of community participation in health service planning. We assumed that people living in rural communities would welcome participation in oral health planning and engage with their community to discuss these issues. We found that to understand the relationships between community members and health service providers, it was essential to identify the formal and informal community leaders and to engage stakeholders from the various community governance structures. Our study highlights the sometimes ‘messiness’ of decision making in rural communities as well as ways to ensure that community members have the training and practical skills necessary to participate in community decision making.

Keywords: community participation, health planning, rural ECOH, Remote Services Futures

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Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg

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The integral role oil-crushing companies play in sunflower oil production is often overlooked to offer high-quality oil to refineries and end consumers. Sunflower oil crushing companies in South Africa are exposed to price fluctuations resulting from the local and international markets. Hedging instruments enable these companies to hedge themselves against unexpected prices spikes and to ensure sustained profitability. A crushing company is a necessary middleman, and as such, these companies have exposure to the purchasing and selling sides of sunflower. Sunflower oil crushing companies purchase sunflower seeds from farmers or agricultural companies that provide storage facilities. The purchasing price is determined by the supply and demand of sunflower seed, both national and international. When the price of sunflower seeds in South Africa is high but still below import parity, then the crush margins realised by these companies are reduced or even negative at times. There are three main products made by sunflower oil crushing companies, oil, meal, and shells. Profits are realised from selling three products, namely, sunflower oil, meal and shells. However, when selling sunflower oil to refineries, sunflower oil crushing companies needs to hedge themselves against a reduction in vegetable oil prices. Hedging oil prices is often done via futures and is subject to specific volume commitments before a hedge position can be taken in. Furthermore, South African oil-crushing companies hedge sunflower oil with international, Over-the-counter contracts as South Africa is a price taker of sunflower oil and not a price maker. As such, South Africa provides a fraction of the world’s sunflower oil supply and, therefore, has minimal influence on price changes. The advantage of hedging using futures ensures that the sunflower crushing company will know the profits they will realise, but the downside is that they can no longer benefit from a price increase. Alternative hedging instruments like options might pose a solution to the opportunity cost does not go missing and that profit margins are locked in at the best possible prices for the oil crushing company. This paper aims to investigate the possibility of employing options alongside futures to simulate different scenarios to determine if options can bridge the opportunity cost gap.

Keywords: derivatives, hedging, price risk, sunflower, sunflower oil, South Africa

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Authors: Roengchai Tansuchat, Woraphon Yamaka, Paravee Maneejuk

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From the past recent, the global financial crisis, economic instability, and large fluctuation in agricultural commodity price have led to increased concerns about the volatility transmission among them. The problem is further exacerbated by commodities volatility caused by other commodity price fluctuations, hence the decision on hedging strategy has become both costly and useless. Thus, this paper is conducted to analysis the volatility spillover effect among major agriculture including corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, to help the commodity suppliers hedge their portfolios, and manage the risk and co-volatility of them. We provide a switching regime approach to analyzing the issue of volatility spillovers in different economic conditions, namely upturn and downturn economic. In particular, we investigate relationships and volatility transmissions between these commodities in different economic conditions. We purposed a Copula-based multivariate Markov Switching GARCH model with two regimes that depend on an economic conditions and perform simulation study to check the accuracy of our proposed model. In this study, the correlation term in the cross-hedge ratio is obtained from six copula families – two elliptical copulas (Gaussian and Student-t) and four Archimedean copulas (Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, and Joe). We use one-step maximum likelihood estimation techniques to estimate our models and compare the performance of these copula using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). In the application study of agriculture commodities, the weekly data used are conducted from 4 January 2005 to 1 September 2016, covering 612 observations. The empirical results indicate that the volatility spillover effects among cereal futures are different, as response of different economic condition. In addition, the results of hedge effectiveness will also suggest the optimal cross hedge strategies in different economic condition especially upturn and downturn economic.

Keywords: agricultural commodity futures, cereal, cross-hedge, spillover effect, switching regime approach

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Authors: Mohammad Talei, Neda Ranjbar Nosheri, Reza Kazemi Gorzadini

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Today municipalities are searching for the new tools for increasing the public participation in different levels of urban planning. This approach of urban planning involves the community in planning process using participatory approaches instead of the long traditional top-down planning methods. These tools can be used to obtain the particular problems of urban furniture form the residents’ point of view. One of the tools that is designed with this goal is public participation GIS (PPGIS) that enables citizen to record and following up their feeling and spatial knowledge regarding main problems of the city, specifically urban furniture, in the form of maps. However, despite the good intentions of PPGIS, its practical implementation in developing countries faces many problems including the lack of basic supporting infrastructure and services and unavailability of sophisticated public participatory models. In this research we develop a PPGIS using of Web 2 to collect voluntary geodataand to perform spatial analysis based on Spatial OnLine Analytical Processing (SOLAP) and Spatial Data Mining (SDM). These tools provide urban planners with proper informationregarding the type, spatial distribution and the clusters of reported problems. This system is implemented in a case study area in Tehran, Iran and the challenges to make it applicable and its potential for real urban planning have been evaluated. It helps decision makers to better understand, plan and allocate scarce resources for providing most requested urban furniture.

Keywords: PPGIS, spatial information, urbanizing futures, urban planning

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Authors: Kirsty Liddiard

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In this paper, we detail the politics and practicalities of co-produced disability research with disabled young people with life-limiting and life-threatening impairments in our ESRC funded project, Life, Death, Disability and the Human: Living Life to the Fullest. We centre our Co-Researcher Collective of disabled young people who, through virtual research methods and social technologies, are co-leading this innovative project exploring the lives, hopes, desires and ambitions of young disabled people living short(er) lives. Co-production is an established approach; however, our co-researchers have led us to develop inclusive and transformative research practices that engage with online social research methods in innovative ways. Through this discussion, we demarcate the Academy and ‘research process’ as potentially deeply ableist spaces that propogate the normative researcher as non-disabled; someone integrated into the Academy and insecure employment; and who enacts normative modes of leadership. We use our experiences of co-production in Living Life to the Fullest, then, to show that research – as a discipline, a set of politics, and scholarly practice – must be transformed in order to enable new inclusive research futures that support meaningful co-production with marginalised young people. In conclusion, as we detail our experiences, we aim to encourage disability studies researchers and others to adopt virtual environments and social technologies when researching with and for the lives of disabled people.

Keywords: co-production, illness, youth, technology

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Authors: Nadya Patel, Jawn Lim

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Foresight 3.0 is a synergistic methodology that encompasses systems analysis, future studies, capacity building, and forward planning. These components are interconnected, fostering a collective anticipatory intelligence that promotes societal resilience (Ravetz, 2020). However, traditional applications of these strands can often fall short, leading to missed opportunities and narrow perspectives. Therefore, Foresight 3.0 champions a holistic approach to tackling complex issues, focusing on systemic transformations and power dynamics. Businesses are pivotal in preparing the workforce for an increasingly uncertain and complex world. This necessitates the adoption of innovative tools and methodologies, such as Foresight 3.0, that can better equip young employees to anticipate and navigate future challenges. Firstly, the incorporation of its methodology into workplace training can foster a holistic perspective among employees. This approach encourages employees to think beyond the present and consider wider social, economic, and environmental contexts, thereby enhancing their problem-solving skills and resilience. This paper discusses our research on integrating Foresight 3.0's transformative principles with a newly developed Critical Design Futures (CDF) framework to equip organisations with the ability to innovate for the world's most complex social problems. This approach is grounded in 'collective forward intelligence,' enabling mutual learning, co-innovation, and co-production among a diverse stakeholder community, where business transformation and innovation are achieved.

Keywords: business transformation, innovation, foresight, critical design

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Authors: John Hardy

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A range of future-oriented intelligence techniques is commonly used by states to assess their national security and develop strategies to detect and manage threats, to develop and sustain capabilities, and to recover from attacks and disasters. Although homeland security organizations use future's intelligence tools to generate scenarios and simulations which inform their planning, there have been relatively few studies of the methods available or their applications for homeland security purposes. This study presents an assessment of one category of strategic intelligence techniques, termed Multi-Path Futures Analyses (MPFA), and how it can be applied to three distinct tasks for the purpose of analyzing homeland security issues. Within this study, MPFA are categorized as a suite of analytic techniques which can include effects-based operations principles, general morphological analysis, multi-path mapping, and multi-criteria decision analysis techniques. These techniques generate multiple pathways to potential futures and thereby generate insight into the relative influence of individual drivers of change, the desirability of particular combinations of pathways, and the kinds of capabilities which may be required to influence or mitigate certain outcomes. The study assessed eighteen uses of MPFA for homeland security purposes and found that there are five key applications of MPFA which add significant value to analysis. The first application is generating measures of success and associated progress indicators for strategic planning. The second application is identifying homeland security vulnerabilities and relationships between individual drivers of vulnerability which may amplify or dampen their effects. The third application is selecting appropriate resources and methods of action to influence individual drivers. The fourth application is prioritizing and optimizing path selection preferences and decisions. The fifth application is informing capability development and procurement decisions to build and sustain homeland security organizations. Each of these applications provides a unique perspective of a homeland security issue by comparing a range of potential future outcomes at a set number of intervals and by contrasting the relative resource requirements, opportunity costs, and effectiveness measures of alternative courses of action. These findings indicate that MPFA enhances analysts’ ability to generate tangible measures of success, identify vulnerabilities, select effective courses of action, prioritize future pathway preferences, and contribute to ongoing capability development in homeland security assessments.

Keywords: homeland security, intelligence, national security, operational design, strategic intelligence, strategic planning

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Authors: Amel Oueslati, Olfa Benouda

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New Value at Risk (VaR) estimation is proposed and investigated. The well-known two stages Garch-EVT approach uses conditional volatility to generate one step ahead forecasts of VaR. With daily data for twelve stocks that decompose the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, this paper incorporates the volume in the first stage volatility estimation. Afterwards, the forecasting ability of this conditional volatility concerning the VaR estimation is compared to that of a basic volatility model without considering any trading component. The results are significant and bring out the importance of the trading volume in the VaR measure.

Keywords: Garch-EVT, value at risk, volume, volatility

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Authors: E. Channol, O. Collet, N. Kostyuchyk, T. Mesbah, Quoc Hoang Long Nguyen

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In this paper, a pricing model is proposed for co-integrated commodities extending Larsson model. The futures formulae have been derived and tests have been performed with non-constant volatility. The model has been applied to energy commodities (gas, CO2, energy) and soft commodities (corn, wheat). Results show that non-constant volatility leads to more accurate short term prices, which provides better evaluation of value-at-risk and more generally improve the risk management.

Keywords: co-integration, soft commodities, risk management, value-at-risk

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Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

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As the world grapples with climate challenges, this study highlights the instrumental role of AWS services in amplifying the impact of LCVs. Their ability to harness the cloud, data analytics, and scalable infrastructure offered by AWS empowers LCVs to innovate, scale, and drive meaningful change in the quest for a sustainable future. This study serves as a rallying cry, urging stakeholders to recognize, embrace, and maximize the potential of AWS-powered solutions in advancing sustainable and resilient global initiatives.

Keywords: low carbon ventures, sustainability solutions, AWS services, data analytics

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Authors: Maari Sugawara

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This arts-based research is about "self-torture": the interplay of seemingly opposing elements of pain, pleasure, submission, and power. It asserts that "self-torture" can be considered a nontrivial mediation between the aesthetic and the sociopolitical. It explores what the author calls queered self-torture; "self-torture" marked by an ambivalence that allows the oppressed to resist, and their counter-valorization occasionally functions as therapeutic solutions to the problems they highlight and condense. The research goal is to deconstruct normative self-torture and propose queered self-torture as a fertile ground for considering the complexities of desire that allow the oppressed to practice freedom. While “self-torture” manifests in many societies, this research focuses on cultural and national identity in post-WWII Japan using this lens of self-torture, as masochism functions as the very basis for Japanese cultural and national identity to ensure self-preservation. This masochism is defined as an impulse to realize a sense of pride and construct an identity through the acceptance of subordination, shame, and humiliation in the face of an all-powerful Other; the dominant Euro-America. It could be argued that this self-torture is a result of Japanese cultural annihilation and the trauma of the nation's defeat to the US. This is the definition of "self-torturous thresholds," the author’s post-WWII Japan psycho-historical diagnosis; when this threshold is crossed, the oppressed begin to torture themselves; the oppressors no longer need to do anything to maintain their power. The oppressed are already oppressing themselves. The term "oppressed" here refers to Japanese individuals and residents of Japan who are subjected to oppressive “white” heteropatriarchal supremacist structures and values that serve colonialist interests. There are three stages in "self-torturous thresholds": (1) the oppressors no longer need to oppress because the oppressed voluntarily commit to self-torture; (2) the oppressed find pleasure in self-torture; and (3) the oppressed achieve queered self-torture, to achieve alternative futures. Using the conceptualization of "self-torture," this research examines and critiques pleasure, desire, capital, and power in postwar Japan, which enables the discussion of the data-colonizing “Moonshot Research and Development program”. If the oppressed want to divest from the habits of normative self-torture, which shape what is possible in both our present and future, we need methods to feel and know that the alternative results of self-torture are possible. Phase three will be enacted using Sarah Ahmed's queer methodology to reorient national and cultural identity away from heteronormativity. Through theoretical analysis, textual analysis, archival research, ethnographic interviews, and digital art projects, including experimental documentary as a method to capture the realities of the individuals who are practicing self-torture, this research seeks to reveal how self-torture may become not just a vehicle of pleasure but also a mode of critiquing power and achieving freedom. It seeks to encourage the imaginings of queer Japanese futures, where the marginalized survive Japan’s natural and man-made disasters and Japan’s Imperialist past and present rather than submitting to the country’s continued violence.

Keywords: arts-based research, Japanese studies, interdisciplinary arts, queer studies, cultural studies, popular culture, BDSM, sadomasochism, sexuality, VR, AR, digital art, visual arts, speculative fiction

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Authors: Aparna Viswanath

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Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as non-storability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: financial derivatives, forward, futures, options, risk management

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Authors: Edgar Teixeira, Eurico Carrapatoso

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As 3D displays become increasingly affordable, while production techniques and computational resources to create stereoscopic content being ever more accessible, a new dimension is literally introduced along with new expressive and immersive potentialities in support of designing for the screen. Prospective design visionaries have already at the reach of their hands an innovative and powerful visualization technology, which enables them to actively envision future trends and vanguardist directions. This paper explores the aesthetic and informational potentialities of stereoscopic motion graphics, providing insight on the application of 3D displays in design practice, proposing strategies to investigate stereoscopic communication, discussing potential repercussions to extant theory and impacts on audience.

Keywords: design, visual communication, technology, stereoscopy, 3D media

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Authors: Pablo M. S. Vallejos

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The article aims to analyze the autobiographical practices of users on Instagram, observing the instrumentalization of image resources in the construction of visual narratives that make up that archive and digital diary. Through bibliographical review, discourse exploration and case studies, the research also aims to present a new theoretical perception about everyday records - edited with a collage of filters and aesthetic tools - that permeate that social network, understanding it as a platform fictionalizing and an expansion of life. In this way, therefore, the work reflects on possible futures in the elaboration of representations and identities in the context of digital spaces in the 21st century.

Keywords: visual culture, social media, autobiography, image

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Authors: Christine Winberg, James Garraway

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Many key university documents, such as vision and mission statements and strategic plans, are aspirational and future-oriented. There is a wide range of future-oriented methods that are used in planning applications, ranging from mathematical modelling to expert opinions. Many of these methods have limitations, and planners using these tools might, for example, make the technical-rational assumption that their plans will unfold in a logical and inevitable fashion, thus underestimating the many complex forces that are at play in planning for an unknown future. This is the issue that this study addresses. The overall project aim was to assist a new university of technology in developing appropriate responses to its social responsibility, graduate employability and research missions in its strategic plan. The specific research question guiding the research activities and approach was: how might the use of innovative future-oriented planning tools enable or constrain a strategic planning process? The research objective was to engage collaborating groups in the use of an innovative tool to develop and assess future scenarios, for the purpose of developing deeper understandings of possible futures and their challenges. The scenario planning tool chosen was ‘fictive scripting’, an analytical technique derived from Technology Forecasting and Innovation Studies. Fictive scripts are future projections that also take into account the present shape of the world and current developments. The process thus began with a critical diagnosis of the present, highlighting its tensions and frictions. The collaborative groups then developed fictive scripts, each group producing a future scenario that foregrounded different institutional missions, their implications and possible consequences. The scripts were analyzed with a view to identifying their potential contribution to the university’s strategic planning exercise. The unfolding fictive scripts revealed a number of insights in terms of unexpected benefits, unexpected challenges, and unexpected consequences. These insights were not evident in previous strategic planning exercises. The contribution that this study offers is to show how better choices can be made and potential pitfalls avoided through a systematic foresight exercise. When universities develop strategic planning documents, they are looking into the future. In this paper it is argued that the use of appropriate tools for future-oriented exercises, can help planners to understand more fully what achieving desired outcomes might entail, what challenges might be encountered, and what unexpected consequences might ensue.

Keywords: fictive scripts, scenarios, strategic planning, technological forecasting

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Authors: Dorsa Bakhshandehgeyazdi

Abstract:

This paper examines elective future of security in the Middle East trying to find a way that could take the district from a shaky past to a more secure future. Taking a gander at five situations about the eventual future of world legislative issues, in particular, globalization, fragmentation, conflict of civilizations, majority rule peace and the development of a security group, the paper contends that albeit every situation has its qualities (and in addition shortcomings), it is the situation that predicts the foundation of a security group that joins a more express thought for forming a more secure future for the Middle East.

Keywords: Middle East, Globalization, Fragmentation, Conflict of civilizations, Majority rule peace, Development of a security group

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Authors: Djehich Mohamed Yousri

Abstract:

In this research paper, the future of international relations is believed to have an important place on the theoretical and applied levels because policy makers in the world are in dire need of such analyzes that are useful in drawing up the foreign policies of their countries, and protecting their national security from potential future threats, and in this context, The topic raised a lot of scientific controversy and intellectual debate, especially in terms of the extent of the effectiveness, accuracy, and ability of foresight methods to identify potential futures, and this is what attributed the controversy to the scientific foundations for foreseeing international relations. An arena for intellectual discussion between different thinkers in international relations belonging to different theoretical schools, which confirms to us the conceptual and implied development of prediction in order to reach the scientific level.

Keywords: foresight, forecasting, international relations, international relations theory, concept of international relations

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Authors: Michael Stokes

Abstract:

Using a disability studies approach, this paper analyzes the American science fiction novel Ballroom of the Skies as way to address and access narratives of American exceptionalism in relation to global struggle. Combined with a critical race studies analysis of identity and cultural practice, this essay seeks to find parallels between the treatment of disability and the treatment of the racialized body in literature to forcibly reread potential for multiple assemblages of identity in the speculated futures of science fiction. Thinking through this relationship, the essay constructs a thematic understanding of social eugenics as practiced in American culture.

Keywords: disability studies, science fiction, eugenics, cultural studies

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Authors: Ana Hol

Abstract:

Technological inventions such as websites, blogs, smartphone applications are on a daily basis influencing our decision making, are improving our productivity and are shaping futures of many consumer and service/product providers. This research identifies that these days both customers and providers heavily rely on smart phone applications. With this in mind, iTunes mobile applications store has been studies. It was identified that food related applications used by consumers can broadly be categorized into purchase apps, diaries, tracking health apps, trip farm location apps and cooking apps. On the other hand, apps used by farmers can be classified as: weather apps, pests / fertilizer app and general Facebook apps. With the aim to blur this farmer-consumer divide our research utilizes Context Specific eTransformation Framework and based on it identifies characteristic of the app that would allow this to happen.

Keywords: smart phone applications, SME - farmers, consumer, technology, business innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 381