Search results for: switching regime approach
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 14120

Search results for: switching regime approach

14120 Pricing European Continuous-Installment Options under Regime-Switching Models

Authors: Saghar Heidari

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the valuation problem of European continuous-installment options under Markov-modulated models with a partial differential equation approach. Due to the opportunity for continuing or stopping to pay installments, the valuation problem under regime-switching models can be formulated as coupled partial differential equations (CPDE) with free boundary features. To value the installment options, we express the truncated CPDE as a linear complementarity problem (LCP), then a finite element method is proposed to solve the resulted variational inequality. Under some appropriate assumptions, we establish the stability of the method and illustrate some numerical results to examine the rate of convergence and accuracy of the proposed method for the pricing problem under the regime-switching model.

Keywords: continuous-installment option, European option, regime-switching model, finite element method

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
14119 Numerical Pricing of Financial Options under Irrational Exercise Times and Regime-Switching Models

Authors: Mohammad Saber Rohi, Saghar Heidari

Abstract:

In this paper, we studied the pricing problem of American options under a regime-switching model with the possibility of a non-optimal exercise policy (early or late exercise time) which is called an irrational strategy. For this, we consider a Markovmodulated model for the dynamic of the underlying asset as an alternative model to the classical Balck-Scholes-Merton model (BSM) and an intensity-based model for the irrational strategy, to provide more realistic results for American option prices under the irrational behavior in real financial markets. Applying a partial differential equation (PDE) approach, the pricing problem of American options under regime-switching models can be formulated as coupled PDEs. To solve the resulting systems of PDEs in this model, we apply a finite element method as the numerical solving procedure to the resulting variational inequality. Under some appropriate assumptions, we establish the stability of the method and compare its accuracy to some recent works to illustrate the suitability of the proposed model and the accuracy of the applied numerical method for the pricing problem of American options under the regime-switching model with irrational behaviors.

Keywords: irrational exercise strategy, rationality parameter, regime-switching model, American option, finite element method, variational inequality

Procedia PDF Downloads 46
14118 Volatility Model with Markov Regime Switching to Forecast Baht/USD

Authors: Nop Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Keywords: volatility, Markov Regime Switching, forecasting, Baht/USD

Procedia PDF Downloads 260
14117 EarlyWarning for Financial Stress Events:A Credit-Regime Switching Approach

Authors: Fuchun Li, Hong Xiao

Abstract:

We propose a new early warning model for predicting financial stress events for a given future time. In this model, we examine whether credit conditions play an important role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks when predicting the likelihood of occurrence of financial stress events for a given future time. This propagation takes the form of a threshold regression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold. Given the new early warning model for financial stress events, we evaluate the performance of this model and currently available alternatives, such as the model from signal extraction approach, and linear regression model. In-sample forecasting results indicate that the three types of models are useful tools for predicting financial stress events while none of them outperforms others across all criteria considered. The out-of-sample forecasting results suggest that the credit-regime switching model performs better than the two others across all criteria and all forecasting horizons considered.

Keywords: cut-off probability, early warning model, financial crisis, financial stress, regime-switching model, forecasting horizons

Procedia PDF Downloads 408
14116 Macroeconomic Determinants of Cyclical Variations in Value, Size, and Momentum Premium in the UK

Authors: G. Sarwar, C. Mateus, N. Todorovic

Abstract:

The paper examines the asymmetries in size, value and momentum premium over the economic cycles in the UK and their macroeconomic determinants. Using Markov switching approach we find clear evidence of cyclical variations of the three premiums, most noticeably variations in size premium. We associate Markov switching regime 1 with economic upturn and regime 2 with economic downturn as per OECD’s Composite Leading Indicator. The macroeconomic indicators prompting such cyclicality the most are interest rates, term structure and credit spread. The role of GDP growth, money supply and inflation is less pronounced in our sample.

Keywords: macroeconomic determinants, Markorv Switching, size, value

Procedia PDF Downloads 454
14115 A Linear Autoregressive and Non-Linear Regime Switching Approach in Identifying the Structural Breaks Caused by Anti-Speculation Measures: The Case of Hong Kong

Authors: Mengna Hu

Abstract:

This paper examines the impact of an anti-speculation tax policy on the trading activities and home price movements in the housing market in Hong Kong. The study focuses on the secondary residential property market where transactions dominate. The policy intervention substantially raised the transaction cost to speculators as well as genuine homeowners who dispose their homes within a certain period. Through the demonstration of structural breaks, our empirical results show that the rise in transaction cost effectively reduced speculative trading activities. However, it accelerated price increase in the small-sized segment by vastly demotivating existing homeowners from trading up to better homes, causing congestion in the lower-end market where the demand from first-time buyers is still strong. Apart from that, by employing regime switching approach, we further show that the unintended consequences are likely to be persistent due to this policy together with other strengthened cooling measures.

Keywords: transaction costs, housing market, structural breaks, regime switching

Procedia PDF Downloads 231
14114 On the Importance of Quality, Liquidity Level and Liquidity Risk: A Markov-Switching Regime Approach

Authors: Tarik Bazgour, Cedric Heuchenne, Danielle Sougne

Abstract:

We examine time variation in the market beta of portfolios sorted on quality, liquidity level and liquidity beta characteristics across stock market phases. Using US stock market data for the period 1970-2010, we find, first, the US stock market was driven by four regimes. Second, during the crisis regime, low (high) quality, high (low) liquidity beta and illiquid (liquid) stocks exhibit an increase (a decrease) in their market betas. This finding is consistent with the flight-to-quality and liquidity phenomena. Third, we document the same pattern across stocks when the market volatility is low. We argue that, during low volatility times, investors shift their portfolios towards low quality and illiquid stocks to seek portfolio gains. The pattern observed in the tranquil regime can be, therefore, explained by a flight-to-low-quality and to illiquidity. Finally, our results reveal that liquidity level is more important than liquidity beta during the crisis regime.

Keywords: financial crises, quality, liquidity, liquidity risk, regime-switching models

Procedia PDF Downloads 368
14113 Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in West African Business Cycles: Markov Switching Approach

Authors: Omolade Adeleke, Jonathan Olusegun Famoroti

Abstract:

This study empirically examined the monetary policy and economic growth in the classical cycles in 8 member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), using the Markov switching model for the Two-phase Regime, covering the period 1980Q1 to 2020Q4. Our estimates suggest that these countries demonstrate to have similar business cycles, and the economies stay more in an expansion regime than a recession regime. The result further shows that the union has an average duration period of 3.1 and 15.9 quarters for contraction and expansion periods, respectively. The business cycle duration, on average, suggests 19 quarters, varying from country to country. Therefore, the formulation of policies that can enhance aggregate demand by member countries in the union is an antidote for recession and is necessary to drive the economy into equilibrium. Also, a low-interest rate and reduced inflation rate would ginger long-run economic growth.

Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, economic growth, Markov switching

Procedia PDF Downloads 39
14112 Volatility Switching between Two Regimes

Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

Abstract:

Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modelling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 195
14111 Code-Switching in Facebook Chatting Among Maldivian Teenagers

Authors: Aaidha Hammad

Abstract:

This study examines the phenomenon of code switching among teenagers in the Maldives while they carry out conversations through Facebook in the form of “Facebook Chatting”. The current study aims at evaluating the frequency of code-switching and it investigates between what languages code-switching occurs. Besides the study identifies the types of words that are often codeswitched and the triggers for code switching. The methodology used in this study is mixed method of qualitative and quantitative approach. In this regard, the chat log of a group conversation between 10 teenagers was collected and analyzed. A questionnaire was also administered through online to 24 different teenagers from different corners of the Maldives. The age of teenagers ranged between 16 and 19 years. The findings of the current study revealed that while Maldivian teenagers chat in Facebook they very often code switch and these switches are most commonly between Dhivehi and English, but some other languages are also used to some extent. It also identified the different types of words that are being often code switched among the teenagers. Most importantly it explored different reasons behind code switching among the Maldivian teenagers in Facebook chatting.

Keywords: code-switching, Facebook, Facebook chatting Maldivian teenagers

Procedia PDF Downloads 207
14110 Moral Hazard under the Effect of Bailout and Bailin Events: A Markov Switching Model

Authors: Amira Kaddour

Abstract:

To curb the problem of liquidity in times of financial crises, two cases arise; the Bailout or Bailin, two opposite choices that elicit the analysis of their effect on moral hazard. This paper attempts to empirically analyze the effect of these two types of events on the behavior of investors. For this end, we use the Emerging Market Bonds Index (EMBI-JP Morgan), and its excess of return, to detect the change in the risk premia through a Markov switching model. The results showed the transition to two types of regime and an effect on moral hazard; Bailout is an incentive of moral hazard, Bailin effectiveness remains subject of credibility.

Keywords: Bailout, Bailin, Moral hazard, financial crisis, Markov switching

Procedia PDF Downloads 440
14109 Domain Switching Characteristics of Lead Zirconate Titanate Piezoelectric Ceramic

Authors: Mitsuhiro Okayasu

Abstract:

To better understand the lattice characteristics of lead zirconate titanate (PZT) ceramics, the lattice orientations and domain-switching characteristics have been directly examined during loading and unloading using various experimental techniques. Upon loading, the PZT ceramics are fractured linear and nonlinearly during the compressive loading process. The strain characteristics of the PZT ceramic were directly affected by both the lattice and domain switching strain. Due to the piezoelectric ceramic, electrical activity of lightning-like behavior occurs in the PZT ceramics, which attributed to the severe domain-switching leading to weak piezoelectric property. The characteristics of domain-switching and reverse switching are detected during the loading and unloading processes. The amount of domain-switching depends on the grain, due to different stress levels. In addition, two patterns of 90˚ domain-switching systems are characterized, namely (i) 90˚ turn about the tetragonal c-axis and (ii) 90˚ rotation of the tetragonal a-axis. In this case, PZT ceramic was loaded by the thermal stress at 80°C. Extent of domain switching is related to the direction of c-axis of the tetragonal structure, e.g., that axis, orientated close to the loading direction, makes severe domain switching. It is considered that there is 90˚ domain switching, but in actual, the angle of domain switching is less than 90˚, e.g., 85.4° ~ 90.0°. In situ TEM observation of the domain switching characteristics of PZT ceramic has been conducted with increasing the sample temperature from 25°C to 300°C, and the domain switching like behavior is directly observed from the lattice image, where the severe domain switching occurs less than 100°C.

Keywords: PZT, lead zirconate titanate, piezoelectric ceramic, domain switching, material property

Procedia PDF Downloads 166
14108 Code-Switching and Code Mixing among Ogba-English Bilingual Conversations

Authors: Ben-Fred Ohia

Abstract:

Code-switching and code-mixing are linguistic behaviours that arise in a bilingual situation. They limit speakers in a conversation to decide which code they should use to utter particular phrases or words in the course of carrying out their utterance. Every human society is characterized by the existence of diverse linguistic varieties. The speakers of these varieties at some points have various degrees of contact with the non-speakers of their variety, which one of the outcomes of the linguistic contact is code-switching or code-mixing. The work discusses the nature of code-switching and code-mixing in Ogba-English bilinguals’ speeches. It provides a detailed explanation of the concept of code-switching and code-mixing and explains the typology of code-switching and code-mixing and their manifestation in Ogba-English bilingual speakers’ speeches. The findings reveal that code-switching and code-mixing are functionally motivated and being triggered by various conversational contexts.

Keywords: bilinguals, code-mixing, code-switching, Ogba

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
14107 Markov Switching of Conditional Variance

Authors: Josip Arneric, Blanka Skrabic Peric

Abstract:

Forecasting of volatility, i.e. returns fluctuations, has been a topic of interest to portfolio managers, option traders and market makers in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most common used models are GARCH type models. As standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance, it is difficult the predict volatility using standard GARCH models. Due to practical limitations of these models different approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on Markov switching models. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate because they allow some part of the model to depend on the state of the economy. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility for selected emerging markets.

Keywords: emerging markets, Markov switching, GARCH model, transition probabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 427
14106 A New Approach to Achieve the Regime Equations in Sand-Bed Rivers

Authors: Farhad Imanshoar

Abstract:

The regime or equilibrium geometry of alluvial rivers remains a topic of fundamental scientific and engineering interest. There are several approaches to analyze the problem, namely: empirical formulas, semi-theoretical methods and rational (extreme) procedures. However, none of them is widely accepted at present, due to lack of knowledge of some physical processes associated with channel formation and the simplification hypotheses imposed in order to reduce the high quantity of involved variables. The study presented in this paper shows a new approach to estimate stable width and depth of sand-bed rivers by using developed stream power equation (DSPE). At first, a new procedure based on theoretical analysis and by considering DSPE and ultimate sediment concentration were developed. Then, experimental data for regime condition in sand-bed rivers (flow depth, flow width, sediment feed rate for several cases) were gathered. Finally, the results of this research (regime equations) are compared with the field data and other regime equations. A good agreement was observed between the field data and the values resulted from developed regime equation.

Keywords: regime equations, developed stream power equation, sand-bed rivers, semi-theoretical methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 240
14105 Modelling Volatility Spillovers and Cross Hedging among Major Agricultural Commodity Futures

Authors: Roengchai Tansuchat, Woraphon Yamaka, Paravee Maneejuk

Abstract:

From the past recent, the global financial crisis, economic instability, and large fluctuation in agricultural commodity price have led to increased concerns about the volatility transmission among them. The problem is further exacerbated by commodities volatility caused by other commodity price fluctuations, hence the decision on hedging strategy has become both costly and useless. Thus, this paper is conducted to analysis the volatility spillover effect among major agriculture including corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, to help the commodity suppliers hedge their portfolios, and manage the risk and co-volatility of them. We provide a switching regime approach to analyzing the issue of volatility spillovers in different economic conditions, namely upturn and downturn economic. In particular, we investigate relationships and volatility transmissions between these commodities in different economic conditions. We purposed a Copula-based multivariate Markov Switching GARCH model with two regimes that depend on an economic conditions and perform simulation study to check the accuracy of our proposed model. In this study, the correlation term in the cross-hedge ratio is obtained from six copula families – two elliptical copulas (Gaussian and Student-t) and four Archimedean copulas (Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, and Joe). We use one-step maximum likelihood estimation techniques to estimate our models and compare the performance of these copula using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). In the application study of agriculture commodities, the weekly data used are conducted from 4 January 2005 to 1 September 2016, covering 612 observations. The empirical results indicate that the volatility spillover effects among cereal futures are different, as response of different economic condition. In addition, the results of hedge effectiveness will also suggest the optimal cross hedge strategies in different economic condition especially upturn and downturn economic.

Keywords: agricultural commodity futures, cereal, cross-hedge, spillover effect, switching regime approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 168
14104 Switching Losses in Power Electronic Converter of Switched Reluctance Motor

Authors: Ali Asghar Memon

Abstract:

A cautious and astute selection of switching devices used in power electronic converters of a switched reluctance (SR) motor is required. It is a matter of choice of best switching devices with respect to their switching ability rather than fulfilling the number of switches. This paper highlights the computational determination of switching losses comprising of switch-on, switch-off and conduction losses respectively by using experimental data in simulation model of a SR machine. The finding of this research is helpful for proper selection of electronic switches and suitable converter topology for switched reluctance motor.

Keywords: converter, operating modes, switched reluctance motor, switching losses

Procedia PDF Downloads 470
14103 An Elegant Technique to Achieve ZCS in a Boost Converter Incorporating Complete Energy Transfer

Authors: Nagesh Vangala, Rayudu Mannam

Abstract:

Soft switching has attracted the interest of various researchers constantly. Many techniques are in vogue to achieve soft switching (ZVS and/or ZCS) in Boost converters. These techniques utilize an auxiliary switch to incorporate the ZCS/ZVS. Such schemes require additional control circuit and induce complexity in design. This paper proposes an elegant fly back approach which guarantees zero current switching of the main Switch without the need for any additional active device. A simple flyback transformer scheme is implemented which absorbs the initial turn ON energy (or the Reverse recovery energy of Boost diode) and delivers to the output.

Keywords: boost converter, complete energy transfer, flyback, zero current switching

Procedia PDF Downloads 361
14102 Relaxing Convergence Constraints in Local Priority Hysteresis Switching Logic

Authors: Mubarak Alhajri

Abstract:

This paper addresses certain inherent limitations of local priority hysteresis switching logic. Our main result establishes that under persistent excitation assumption, it is possible to relax constraints requiring strict positivity of local priority and hysteresis switching constants. Relaxing these constraints allows the adaptive system to reach optimality which implies the performance improvement. The unconstrained local priority hysteresis switching logic is examined and conditions for global convergence are derived.

Keywords: adaptive control, convergence, hysteresis constant, hysteresis switching

Procedia PDF Downloads 358
14101 Code Switching: A Case Study Of Lebanon

Authors: Wassim Bekai

Abstract:

Code switching, as its name states, is altering between two or more languages in one sentence. The speaker tends to use code switching in his/her speech for better clarification of his/her message to the receiver. It is commonly used in sociocultural countries such as Lebanon because of the various cultures that have come across its lands through history, considering Lebanon is geographically located in the heart of the world, and hence between many cultures and languages. In addition, Lebanon was occupied by Turkish authorities for about 400 years, and later on by the French mandate, where both of these countries forced their languages in official papers and in the Lebanese educational system. In this paper, the importance of code switching in the Lebanese workplace will be examined, stressing the efficiency and amount of the production resulting from code switching in the workplace (factories, universities among other places) in addition to exploring the social, education, religious and cultural factors behind this phenomenon in Lebanon.

Keywords: code switching, Lebanon, cultural, factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 243
14100 Political Corruption in an Authoritarian Regime: a Story from the Kingdom of Morocco

Authors: Noureddine Radouai

Abstract:

Corruption is an endemic phenomenon in many countries around the globe. Morocco, as an authoritarian regime, relies on corruption for monarchy survival. I analyze the Makhzen structure and methods that it follows to exchange corruption for political loyalty. The abuse of power in Morocco is sponsored by the monarch itself as it is its way to remain its importance in the regime.

Keywords: corruption, Clientelism, authoritarian regime, Morocco

Procedia PDF Downloads 108
14099 Fiscal Stability Indicators and Public Debt Trajectory in Croatia

Authors: Hrvoje Simovic

Abstract:

Paper analyses the key problems of fiscal sustainability in Croatia. To point out key challenges of fiscal sustainability, the public debt sustainability is analyzed using standard indicators of fiscal stability, accompanied with the identification of regime changes approach in the public debt trajectory using switching regression approach. The analysis is conducted for the period from 2001 to 2016. Results show huge vulnerability in recession period (2009-14), so key challenges in current fiscal policy and public debt management are recognized in maturity prolongation, interest rates trends, and credit rating expectations.

Keywords: fiscal sustainability, public debt, Croatia, budget deficit

Procedia PDF Downloads 227
14098 Code – Switching in a Flipped Classroom for Foreign Students

Authors: E. Tutova, Y. Ebzeeva, L. Gishkaeva, Y.Smirnova, N. Dubinina

Abstract:

We have been working with students from different countries and found it crucial to switch the languages to explain something. Whether it is Russian, or Chinese, explaining in a different language plays an important role for students’ cognitive abilities. In this work we are going to explore how code switching may impact the student’s perception of information. Code-switching is a tool defined by linguists as a switch from one language to another for convenience, explanation of terms unavailable in an initial language or sometimes prestige. In our case, we are going to consider code-switching from the function of convenience. As a rule, students who come to study Russian in a language environment, lack many skills in speaking the language. Thus, it is made harder to explain the rules for them of another language, which is English. That is why switching between English, Russian and Mandarin is crucial for their better understanding. In this work we are going to explore the code-switching as a tool which can help a teacher in a flipped classroom.

Keywords: bilingualism, psychological linguistics, code-switching, social linguistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 40
14097 A Comprehensive Evaluation of IGBTs Performance under Zero Current Switching

Authors: Ly. Benbahouche

Abstract:

Currently, several soft switching topologies have been studied to achieve high power switching efficiency, reduced cost, improved reliability and reduced parasites. It is well known that improvement in power electronics systems always depend on advanced in power devices. The IGBT has been successfully used in a variety of switching applications such as motor drives and appliance control because of its superior characteristics. The aim of this paper is focuses on simulation and explication of the internal dynamics of IGBTs behaviour under the most popular soft switching schemas that is Zero Current Switching (ZCS) environments. The main purpose of this paper is to point out some mechanisms relating to current tail during the turn-off and examination of the response at turn-off with variation of temperature, inductance L, snubber capacitors Cs, and bus voltage in order to achieve an improved understanding of internal carrier dynamics. It is shown that the snubber capacitor, the inductance and even the temperature controls the magnitude and extent of the tail current, hence the turn-off time (switching speed of the device). Moreover, it has also been demonstrated that the ZCS switching can be utilized efficiently to improve and reduce the power losses as well as the turn-off time. Furthermore, the turn-off loss in ZCS was found to depend on the time of switching of the device.

Keywords: PT-IGBT, ZCS, turn-off losses, dV/dt

Procedia PDF Downloads 280
14096 Effect of Atmospheric Turbulence on Hybrid FSO/RF Link Availability under Qatar's Harsh Climate

Authors: Abir Touati, Syed Jawad Hussain, Farid Touati, Ammar Bouallegue

Abstract:

Although there has been a growing interest in the hybrid free-space optical link and radio frequency FSO/RF communication system, the current literature is limited to results obtained in moderate or cold environment. In this paper, using a soft switching approach, we investigate the effect of weather inhomogeneities on the strength of turbulence hence the channel refractive index under Qatar harsh environment and their influence on the hybrid FSO/RF availability. In this approach, either FSO/RF or simultaneous or none of them can be active. Based on soft switching approach and a finite state Markov Chain (FSMC) process, we model the channel fading for the two links and derive a mathematical expression for the outage probability of the hybrid system. Then, we evaluate the behavior of the hybrid FSO/RF under hazy and harsh weather. Results show that the FSO/RF soft switching renders the system outage probability less than that of each link individually. A soft switching algorithm is being implemented on FPGAs using Raptor code interfaced to the two terminals of a 1Gbps/100 Mbps FSO/RF hybrid system, the first being implemented in the region. Experimental results are compared to the above simulation results.

Keywords: atmospheric turbulence, haze, hybrid FSO/RF, outage probability, refractive index

Procedia PDF Downloads 388
14095 Modelling Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility with Markov-Switching Regression, Single Regime GARCH and Markov-Switching GARCH Models: Empirical Evidence from South Africa

Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

Abstract:

Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 168
14094 Effect of Personality on Consumer Switching: Moderating Role of Involvement and Value of Services

Authors: Anjali Sharma, R. R. K. Sharma

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to examine relationships between personality factors and customer switching for services. Earlier research was directed towards establishing relationship between individual personality traits and customer switching variables considering five-factors model comprised of five personality dimensions (OCEAN), in which personality was not the only influencing factor. Moreover, these works were found to be focused on products and not services. In contrast, the current study is aimed at investigating role of personality using Myer Briggs Type indicator (MBTI) as well as Five-Big Factors, on customer switching and building the conceptual framework on services rather than products. MBTI also known as four opposite pairs or dichotomies of personality dimensions are studied using different levels Involvement (High, Low) of consumer and Value of service-offering (Value for money and Premium) as moderators associated with Consumer Switching. The study is unique in sense that consequences of these indicators of personality on switching behavior has never been studied using considering moderating effect of involvement and value of services. According to our prepositions for a more Extrovert, Intuitive Personality the switching is going to be high whereas the switching is going to be less for an Introvert, Judgmental kind of personality. Similarly, for a consumer with high Neuroticism and Agreeableness the switching would be less as compared to an Open and Conscious Personality type. These level differs with level of a consumer’s involvement and type of a service being offered based on its value.

Keywords: consumer switching, involvement, Myer Briggs personality type indicators, personality, value of service

Procedia PDF Downloads 251
14093 A Sociolinguistic Investigation of Code-Switching Practices of ESL Students Outside EFL Classrooms

Authors: Shehroz Mukhtar, Maqsood Ahmed, Abdullah Mukhtar, Choudhry Shahid, Waqar Javaid

Abstract:

Code switching is a common phenomenon, generally observed in multilingual communities across the globe. A critical look at code switching literature reveals that mostly code switching has been studied in classroom in learning and teaching context while code switching outside classroom in settings such as café, hostel and so on have been the least explored areas. Current research investigated the reasons for code switching in the interactive practices of students and their perceptions regarding the same outside the classroom settings. This paper is the study of the common practice that prevails in the Universities of Sialkot that bilinguals mix two languages when they speak in different class room situations. In Pakistani classrooms where Multilingual are in abundance i.e. they can speak two or more than two languages at the same time, the code switching or language combination is very common. The teachers of Sialkot switch from one language to another consciously or unconsciously while teaching English in the class rooms. This phenomenon has not been explored in the Sialkot’s teaching context. In Sialkot private educational institutes does not encourage code-switching whereas the public or government institutes use it frequently. The crux of this research is to investigate and identify the importance of code switching by taking its users in consideration. Survey research method and survey questionnaire will be used to get exact data from teachers and students. We will try to highlight the functions and importance of code switching in foreign language classrooms of Sialkot and will explore why this trend is emerging in Sialkot.

Keywords: code switching, bilingual context, L1, L2

Procedia PDF Downloads 16
14092 The Current And Prospective Legal Regime of Non-Orbital Flights

Authors: Olga Koutsika

Abstract:

The paper deals primarily with the question of the legal framework of non-orbital flights. The submission is based upon two pillars, starting with the ill-defined current legal regime and proceeding to further recommendations for the prospective legal regime for non-orbital flights. For this reason, the paper focuses on certain key legal aspects of the topic, including among other things liability, responsibility, jurisdiction, registration and authorisation. Furthermore, taking into consideration the hybrid nature of both the craft conducting non-orbital flights and of the flights themselves, which exit airspace but do not enter an orbit in outer space, the paper addresses each legal question from the perspective of both air law and space law and concludes to a number of recommendations regarding the applicability of each legal regime for each legal question individually.

Keywords: current regime, legal framework, non-orbital flights, prospective regime

Procedia PDF Downloads 349
14091 A Sociolinguistic Investigation of Code-Switching Practices of ESL Students Outside EFL Classrooms

Authors: Shehroz Mukhtar, Maqsood Ahmed, Abdullah Mukhtar, Choudhry Shahid, Waqar Javaid

Abstract:

Code switching is a common phenomenon, generally observed in multilingual communities across the globe. A critical look at code-switching literature reveals that mostly code-switching has been studied in the classrooms in learning and teaching contexts, while code-switching outside the classroom in settings such as café, hostels and so on has been the least explored areas. The current research investigated the reasons for code-switching in the interactive practices of students and their perceptions regarding the same outside the classroom settings. This paper is the study of the common practice that prevails in the Universities of Sialkot that bilinguals mix two languages when they speak in different classroom situations. In Pakistani classrooms where Multilingual is in abundance, i.e. they can speak two or more two languages at the same time, code-switching or language combination is very common. The teachers of Sialkot switch from one language to another consciously or unconsciously while teaching English in the classrooms. This phenomenon has not been explored in Sialkot’s teaching context. In Sialkot, private educational institutes do not encourage code-switching, whereas public or government institutes use it frequently. The crux of this research is to investigate and identify the importance of code-switching by taking its users into consideration. The survey research method and survey questionnaire will be used to get exact data from teachers and students. We will try to highlight the functions and importance of code switching in foreign language classrooms of Sialkot and will explore why this trend is emerging in Sialkot.

Keywords: code switching, foreign language classrooms, bilingual context, use of L1, importance of L2.

Procedia PDF Downloads 17