Search results for: empirical modelling

Authors: Purnank Bhatt, Mit Shah, Pawan Nagda, Vimal Jasoliya

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The influence of parameters like velocity and depth of cut on cutting forces is investigated for the empirical relation of the coefficient of friction derived for CRS 1018 for different materials like AISI 4340 and Ti6Al4V. For this purpose, turning tests were carried out on the above materials using coated cemented carbide tool inserts for steel grade and uncoated cemented carbide cutting tool inserts for Titanium with different chip breaker geometries. The cutting forces were measured using a Kistler dynamometer where the multiplication factor taken is 200.The effect of cutting force variation was analyzed experimentally and are compared with the analytical results.

Keywords: cutting forces, coefficient of friction, carbide tool inserts, titanium

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Authors: Mengke Zhan, Cheng-Gang Xie, Jian-Jun Shu

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A venturi flowmeter is a common device used in multiphase flow rate measurement in the upstream oil and gas industry. Having a robust computational model for multiphase flow in a venturi is desirable for understanding the gas-liquid and fluid-pipe interactions and predicting pressure and phase distributions under various flow conditions. A steady Eulerian-Eulerian framework is used to simulate upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical venturi. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements of venturi differential pressure and chord-averaged gas holdup in the venturi throat section. The choice of turbulence model is nontrivial in the multiphase flow modelling in a venturi. The performance cross-comparison of the k-ϵ model, Reynolds stress model (RSM) and shear-stress transport (SST) k-ω turbulence model is made in the study. In terms of accuracy and computational cost, the SST k-ω turbulence model is observed to be the most efficient.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), gas-liquid flow, turbulence modelling, venturi

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Authors: Dejan Tanikić, Jelena Đoković, Saša Kalinović, Miodrag Manić, Saša Ranđelović

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This paper deals with measuring and modelling of the quality of the machined surface of the metal machining process. The average surface roughness (R_a) which represents the quality of the machined part was measured during the dry turning of the AISI 4140 steel. A large number of factors with the unknown relations among them influences this parameter, and that is why mathematical modelling is extremely complicated. Different values of cutting speed, feed rate, depth of cut (cutting regime) and workpiece hardness causes different surface roughness values. Modelling with soft computing techniques may be very useful in such cases. This paper presents the usage of the fuzzy logic-based system for determining metal machining process parameter in order to find the proper values of cutting regimes.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, metal machining, process modeling, surface roughness

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Authors: Faisal Asad Aburub

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Many organizations are investing in web applications and technologies in order to be competitive, some of them could not achieve its goals. The quality of web-based applications could play an important role for organizations to be competitive. So the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of quality of web-based applications to achieve a competitive advantage. A new model has been developed. An empirical investigation was performed on a banking sector in Jordan to test the new model. The results show that impact of web-based applications on competitive advantage is significant. Finally, further work is planned to validate and evaluate the proposed model using several domains.

Keywords: competitive advantage, web-based applications, empirical investigation, commercial banks in Jordan

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Authors: M. A. Ahmadu, S. S. Rabia

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During the past few decades, energy dissipation in the ionosphere resulting from the geomagnetic activity has caused an increasing number of major disruptions of important power and communication services, malfunctions and loss of expensive facilities. Here, the electron precipitation energy, w(ep) and joule heating energy, w(jh) was used in the computation of this dissipation using Østgaard’s empirical relation from hourly geomagnetic indices of 2012, under the assumption that the magnetosphere does not store any energy, so that at the beginning of the activity t1=0 and end at t2=t, the statistical results obtained show that ionospheric dissipation varies month to month, day to day and hour to hour and estimated with a value ~3.6 w(ep), which is in agreement with experimental result.

Keywords: Ostgaard's, ionospheric dissipation, joule heating, electron precipitation, geomagnetic indices, empirical relation

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Authors: Guolong Zhong, Venkatesh Chennam Vijay, Ilias Oraifige

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In the last 20 years, Knowledge Based Engineering (KBE) has shown its advantages in product development in different engineering areas such as automation, mechanical, civil and aerospace engineering in terms of digital design automation and cost reduction by automating repetitive design tasks through capturing, integrating, utilising and reusing the existing knowledge required in various aspects of the product design. However, in primary design stages, the descriptive information of a product is discrete and unorganized while knowledge is in various forms instead of pure data. Thus, it is crucial to have an integrated product model which can represent the entire product information and its associated knowledge at the beginning of the product design. One of the shortcomings of the existing product models is a lack of required knowledge representation in various aspects of product design and its mapping to an interoperable schema. To overcome the limitation of the existing product model and methodologies, two key factors are considered. First, the product model must have well-defined classes that can represent the entire product information and its associated knowledge. Second, the product model needs to be represented in an interoperable schema to ensure a steady data exchange between different product modelling platforms and CAD software. This paper introduced a method to provide a general product model as a generative representation of a product, which consists of the geometry information and non-geometry information, through a product modelling framework. The proposed method for capturing the knowledge from the designers through a knowledge file provides a simple and efficient way of collecting and transferring knowledge. Further, the knowledge schema provides a clear view and format on the data that needed to be gathered in order to achieve a unified knowledge exchange between different platforms. This study used a game-based platform to make product modelling environment accessible for non-engineers. Further the paper goes on to test use case based on the proposed game-based product modelling environment to validate the effectiveness among non-engineers.

Keywords: game-based learning, knowledge based engineering, product modelling, design automation

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Authors: A. Mohamed, A. El-Hamalawi, M. Frost, A. Connell

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Often design standards do not provide guidance or formulae for the calculation of stresses on buried pipelines caused by external loads. Frequently engineers rely on other methods and published sources of information to calculate such imposed stresses and a variety of methods can be used. This paper reviews three current approaches to soil pipeline interaction modelling to predict stresses on buried pipelines subjected to soil overburden and traffic loading. The traditional approach to use empirical stress formulas to calculate circumferential bending stresses on pipelines. The alternative approaches considered are the use of a finite element package to compute an estimate of circumferential bending stress and a proprietary stress analysis system (SURFLOAD) to estimate the circumferential bending stress. The results from analysis using the methods are presented and compared to experimental results in terms of predicted and measured circumferential stresses. This study shows that the approach used to assess externally generated stress is important and can lead to an over-conservative analysis. Using FE analysis either through SURFLOAD or a general FE package to predict circumferential stress is the most accurate way to undertake stress analysis due to traffic and soil loads. Although conservative, classical empirical methods will continue to be applied to the analysis of buried pipelines, an opportunity exists, therefore, in many circumstances, to use applied numerical techniques, made possible by advances in finite element analysis.

Keywords: buried pipelines, circumferential bending stress, finite element analysis, soil overburden, soil pipeline interaction analysis (SPIA), traffic loadings

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Authors: Aulon Shabani, Denis Panxhi, Orion Zavalani

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This paper presents the modelling and development of a simulator for residential electrical appliances. The simulator is developed on MATLAB providing the possibility to analyze and simulate energy consumption of frequently used home appliances in Albania. Modelling of devices considers the impact of different factors, mentioning occupant behavior and climacteric conditions. Most devices are modeled as an electric circuit, and the electric energy consumption is estimated by the solutions of the guiding differential equations. The provided models refer to devices like a dishwasher, oven, water heater, air conditioners, light bulbs, television, refrigerator water, and pump. The proposed model allows us to simulate beforehand the energetic behavior of the largest consumption home devices to estimate peak consumption and improving its reduction. Simulated home prototype results are compared to real measurement of a considered typical home. Obtained results from simulator framework compared to monitored typical household using EmonTxV3 show the effectiveness of the proposed simulation. This conclusion will help for future simulation of a large group of typical household for a better understanding of peak consumption.

Keywords: electrical appliances, energy management, modelling, peak estimation, simulation, smart home

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Authors: Chimezie P. Nnanwa, Thomas C. Urama, Patrick O. Ezepue

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In this paper we use Random Matrix Theory to analyze the eigen-structure of the empirical correlations of 82 stocks which are consistently traded in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) over a 4-year study period 3 August 2009 to 26 August 2013. We apply the Marchenko-Pastur distribution of eigenvalues of a purely random matrix to investigate the presence of investment-pertinent information contained in the empirical correlation matrix of the selected stocks. We use hypothesised standard normal distribution of eigenvector components from RMT to assess deviations of the empirical eigenvectors to this distribution for different eigenvalues. We also use the Inverse Participation Ratio to measure the deviation of eigenvectors of the empirical correlation matrix from RMT results. These preliminary results on the dynamics of asset price correlations in the NSE are important for improving risk-return trade-offs associated with Markowitz’s portfolio optimization in the stock exchange, which is pursued in future work.

Keywords: correlation matrix, eigenvalue and eigenvector, inverse participation ratio, portfolio optimization, random matrix theory

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Authors: Renuka Mahadevan, Sharon Chang

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This exploratory study is based on potential cruisers’ monetary valuation of cruise attributes. Using choice experiment, monetary trade-offs between four different cruise attributes are examined with Australians as a case study. We found 50% of the sample valued variety of onboard cruise activities the least while 30% were willing to pay A$87 for cruise-organised activities per day, and the remaining 20% regarded an ocean view to be most valuable at A$125. Latent class modelling was then applied and results revealed that potential cruisers’ valuation of the attributes can be used to segment the market into adventurers, budget conscious and comfort lovers. Evidence showed that socio demographics are not as insightful as lifestyle preferences in developing cruise packages and pricing that would appeal to potential cruisers. Marketing also needs to counter the mindset of potential cruisers’ belief that cruises are often costly and that cruising can be done later in life.

Keywords: latent class modelling, choice experiment, potential cruisers, market segmentation, willingness to pay

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Authors: Shail N. Shah, K. K. Baraya, A. Madhusudan Achari

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Loop Heat Pipe is a passive two-phase heat transfer device which can be used without any external power source to transfer heat from source to sink. The main aim of this paper is to have modelling of water-based LHP at varying heat loads. Through figures, how the fluid flow occurs within the loop has been explained. Energy Balance has been done in each section. IC (Iterative Convergence) scheme to find out the SSOT (Steady State Operating Temperature) has been developed. It is developed using Dev C++. To best of the author’s knowledge, hardly any detail is available in the open literature about how temperature distribution along the loop is to be evaluated. Results for water-based loop heat pipe is obtained and compared with open literature and error is found within 4%. Parametric study has been done to see the effect of different parameters on pressure drop and SSOT at varying heat loads.

Keywords: loop heat pipe, modelling of loop heat pipe, parametric study of loop heat pipe, functioning of loop heat pipe

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Authors: Majid Galoie, Khodadad Safavi, Abdolreza Karami Nejad, Reza Roshan

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In this study, a comprehensive scouring model has been developed in order to evaluate the accuracy of various empirical relationships which were suggested for prediction of scour hole depth in plunge pools by Martins, Mason, Chian and Veronese. For this reason, scour hole depths caused by free falling jets from a flip bucket to a plunge pool were investigated. In this study various discharges, angles, scouring times, etc. have been considered. The final results demonstrated that the all mentioned empirical formulas, except Mason formula, were reasonably agreement with the experimental data.

Keywords: scour hole depth, plunge pool, physical model, reliability assessment

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Authors: Xavier Bertrand, Alexandre Cayrel

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The early phase of an aircraft development is instrumental as it really drives the potential of a new concept. Any weakness in the high-level design (wing planform, moveable surfaces layout etc.) will be extremely difficult and expensive to recover later in the aircraft development process. Aerodynamic evaluation in this very early development phase is driven by two main criteria: a short lead-time to allow quick iterations of the geometrical design, and a high quality of the calculations to get an accurate & reliable assessment of the current status. These two criteria are usually quite contradictory. Actually, short lead time of a couple of hours from end-to-end can be obtained with very simple tools (semi-empirical methods for instance) although their accuracy is limited, whereas higher quality calculations require heavier/more complex tools, which obviously need more complex inputs as well, and a significantly longer lead time. At this point, the choice has to be done between accuracy and lead-time. A brand new approach has been developed within Airbus, aiming at obtaining quickly high quality evaluations of the aerodynamic of an aircraft. This methodology is based on a joint use of Surrogate Modelling and a lifting line code. The Surrogate Modelling is used to get the wing sections characteristics (e.g. lift coefficient vs. angle of attack), whatever the airfoil geometry, the status of the moveable surfaces (aileron/spoilers) or the high-lift devices deployment. From these characteristics, the lifting line code is used to get the 3D effects on the wing whatever the flow conditions (low/high Mach numbers etc.). This methodology has been applied successfully to a concept of medium range aircraft.

Keywords: aerodynamics, lifting line, surrogate model, CFD

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Authors: F. Pagliara, F. Mauriello

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The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the increase of accessibility brought by high speed rail (HSR) systems and the tourism market in Italy. The impacts of HSR projects on tourism can be quantified in different ways. In this manuscript, an empirical analysis has been carried out with the aid of a dataset containing information both on tourism and transport for 99 Italian provinces during the 2006-2016 period. Panel data regression models have been considered, since they allow modelling a wide variety of correlation patterns. Results show that HSR has an impact on the choice of a given destination for Italian tourists while the presence of a second level hub mainly affects foreign tourists. Attraction variables are also significant for both categories and the variables concerning security, such as number of crimes registered in a given destination, have a negative impact on the choice of a destination.

Keywords: tourists, overnights, high speed rail, attractions, security

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Authors: Serge B. Provost, Yishan Zhang

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A moment-based adjustment to the saddlepoint approximation is introduced in the context of density estimation. First applied to univariate distributions, this methodology is extended to the bivariate case. It then entails estimating the density function associated with each marginal distribution by means of the saddlepoint approximation and applying a bivariate adjustment to the product of the resulting density estimates. The connection to the distribution of empirical copulas will be pointed out. As well, a novel approach is proposed for estimating the support of distribution. As these results solely rely on sample moments and empirical cumulant-generating functions, they are particularly well suited for modeling massive data sets. Several illustrative applications will be presented.

Keywords: empirical cumulant-generating function, endpoints identification, saddlepoint approximation, sample moments, density estimation

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Authors: Ahmad Awajan, Sadam Al Wadi

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In this study, a hybrid method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Holt-Winter (EMD-HW) is used to forecast Amman stock market data. First, the data are decomposed by EMD method into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and residual components. Then, all components are forecasted by HW technique. Finally, forecasting values are aggregated together to get the forecasting value of stock market data. Empirical results showed that the EMD- HW outperform individual forecasting models. The strength of this EMD-HW lies in its ability to forecast non-stationary and non- linear time series without a need to use any transformation method. Moreover, EMD-HW has a relatively high accuracy comparing with eight existing forecasting methods based on the five forecast error measures.

Keywords: Holt-Winter method, empirical mode decomposition, forecasting, time series

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Authors: Ujjal Chattaraj, M. Raviteja, Chaitanya Aemala

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Over the years vehicular traffic has been given priority over pedestrian traffic. With the increase of population in cities, pedestrian traffic is increasing day by day. Pedestrian safety has become a matter of concern for the Traffic Engineers. Pedestrian comfort is primary important for the Engineers who design different pedestrian facilities. Pedestrian comfort and safety can be measured in terms of different level of service (LOS) of the facilities. In this study video data on pedestrian movement have been collected from different railway foot over bridges (FOB) in India. The level of service of those facilities has been analyzed. A cellular automata based model has been formulated to mimic the route choice behaviour of the pedestrians on the foot over bridges.

Keywords: cellular automata model, foot over bridge, level of service, pedestrian

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Authors: Marco Avila Lopez, Hasnae Ait-Douchi, Silvia De Los Santos, Badr Eddine Lebrouhi, Pamela Ramírez Vidal

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In the context of the energy transition, fuel cell technology has emerged as a solution for harnessing hydrogen energy and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. An in-depth study was conducted on a PEMFC-type fuel cell, with an initiation of an analysis of its operational principles and constituent components. Subsequently, the modelling of the fuel cell was undertaken using the Python programming language, encompassing both steady-state and transient regimes. In the case of the steady-state regime, the physical and electrochemical phenomena occurring within the fuel cell were modelled, with the assumption of uniform temperature throughout all cell compartments. Parametric identification was carried out, resulting in a remarkable mean error of only 1.62% when the model results were compared to experimental data documented in the literature. The dynamic model that was developed enabled the scrutiny of the fuel cell's response in terms of temperature and voltage under varying current conditions.

Keywords: fuel cell, modelling, dynamic, thermal model, PEMFC

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Authors: Bhim Kumar Dahal

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Transportation network development in the developing country is in rapid pace. The majority of the network belongs to railway and expressway which passes through diverse topography, landform and geological conditions despite the avoidance principle during route selection. Construction of such networks demand many low to high embankment which required improvement in the foundation soil. This paper is mainly focused on the various advanced ground improvement techniques used to improve the soft soil, modelling approach and its predictability for embankments construction. The ground improvement techniques can be broadly classified in to three groups i.e. densification group, drainage and consolidation group and reinforcement group which are discussed with some case studies.  Various methods were used in modelling of the embankments from simple 1-dimensional to complex 3-dimensional model using variety of constitutive models. However, the reliability of the predictions is not found systematically improved with the level of sophistication.  And sometimes the predictions are deviated more than 60% to the monitored value besides using same level of erudition. This deviation is found mainly due to the selection of constitutive model, assumptions made during different stages, deviation in the selection of model parameters and simplification during physical modelling of the ground condition. This deviation can be reduced by using optimization process, optimization tools and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters which will guide to select the appropriate model parameters.

Keywords: cement, improvement, physical properties, strength

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Authors: Marcin Michalak

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Due to the increasing efforts on saving our natural environment a change in the structure of energy resources can be observed - an increasing fraction of a renewable energy sources. In many countries traditional underground coal mining loses its significance but there are still countries, like Poland or Germany, in which the coal based technologies have the greatest fraction in a total energy production. This necessitates to make an effort to limit the costs and negative effects of underground coal mining. The longwall complex is as essential part of the underground coal mining. The safety and the effectiveness of the work is strongly dependent of the diagnostic state of powered roof supports. The building of a useful and reliable diagnostic system requires a lot of data. As the acquisition of a data of any possible operating conditions it is important to have a possibility to generate a demanded artificial working characteristics. In this paper a new approach of modelling a leg pressure in the single unit of powered roof support. The model is a result of the analysis of a typical working cycles.

Keywords: machine modelling, underground mining, coal mining, structure

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Authors: Flevy Lasrado

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to show the relationship between the service quality dimensions and model them to propose quality improvements using interpretive structural modelling (ISM). Methodology: This paper used an interpretive structural modelling (ISM). The data was collected from the expert opinions that included a questionnaire. The detailed method of using ISM is discussed in the paper. Findings: The present research work provides an ISM based model to understand the relationships among the service quality dimensions. Practical implications or Original Value: An ISM based model has been developed for healthcare facility for improving customer satisfaction and increasing market share. Although there is lot of research on SERVQUAL model adapted to healthcare sector, no study has been done to understand the interactions among these dimensions. So the major contribution of this research work is the development of contextual relationships among identified variables through a systematic framework. The present research work provides an ISM based model to understand the relationships among the service quality dimensions.

Keywords: SERQUAL, healthcare, quality, service quality

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Authors: Sujeet Kumar, Arun Prasad

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The present work investigates the effect of multiple parameters on the unconfined compressive strength of the bauxite residue-lime mix. A number of unconfined compressive strength tests considering various curing time, lime content, dry density and moisture content were carried out. The results show that an empirical correlation may be successfully developed using volumetric lime content, porosity, moisture content, curing time unconfined compressive strength for the range of the bauxite residue-lime mix studied. The proposed empirical correlations efficiently predict the strength of bauxite residue-lime mix, and it can be used as a generalized empirical equation to estimate unconfined compressive strength.

Keywords: bauxite residue, curing time, porosity/volumetric lime ratio, unconfined compressive strength

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Authors: Thawtar Htun, Kim N. Irvine, Ranjna Jindal

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This study aimed at modelling the wastewater collection system in Cha-Am Municipality using PCSWMM to investigate the quantity of combined sewage delivered to the aeration lagoon treatment system (ALTS). Cha-Am is a small sea resort town in Petchaburi Province located about 175 km southwest of Bangkok and is facing increasing development so it is important to understand current system performance and plan for future build out. PCSWMM was calibrated using observed ALTS inflow data for the period 15 June to 20 July 2015. The model was validated using observed ALTS inflow data for the periods 19 July to 20 October 2015 and 1 October to 31 December 2015, respectively. The 1:1 lines between modeled and observed peak flow and event volume for the calibration events qualitatively showed good correspondence. The r2 values between modeled and observed peak flow (99%) and event volume (89%) also were strong.

Keywords: combined sewer system, mathematical modelling, PCSWMM, wastewater collection system

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Authors: Hana Rabbouch

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In recent years, there has been considerable growth of denoising techniques mainly devoted to medical imaging. This important evolution is not only due to the progress of computing techniques, but also to the emergence of multi-resolution analysis (MRA) on both mathematical and algorithmic bases. In this paper, a comparative study is conducted between the two best-known MRA-based decomposition techniques: the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT). The comparison is carried out in a framework of multi-scale denoising, where a Non-Local Means (NLM) filter is performed scale-by-scale to a sample of benchmark medical images. The results prove the effectiveness of the multiscaled denoising, especially when the NLM filtering is coupled with the EMD.

Keywords: medical imaging, non local means, denoising, multiscaled analysis, empirical mode decomposition, wavelets

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Milad Sadeghpoor Moalem, Mahmood Zakeri Niri, Leili Sadeghi Khalegh Abadi

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While there are many benefits to using reservoir dams, their break leads to destructive effects. From the viewpoint of International Committee of Large Dams (ICOLD), dam break means the collapse of whole or some parts of a dam; thereby the dam will be unable to hold water. Therefore, studying dam break phenomenon and prediction of its behavior and effects reduces losses and damages of the mentioned phenomenon. One of the most common types of reservoir dams is embankment dam. Overtopping in embankment dams occurs because of flood discharge system inability in release inflows to reservoir. One of the most important issues among managers and engineers to evaluate the performance of the reservoir dam rim when sliding into the storage, creating waves is large and long. In this study, the effects of floods which caused the overtopping of the dam have been investigated. It was assumed that spillway is unable to release the inflow. To determine outflow hydrograph resulting from dam break, numerical model using Flow-3D software and empirical equations was used. Results of numerical models and their comparison with empirical equations show that numerical model and empirical equations can be used to study the flood resulting from dam break.

Keywords: embankment dam break, empirical equations, Taleghan dam, Flow-3D numerical model

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Authors: Nguyen Trong Nghia, Nguyen Huu Uy Vu, Dang Huu Phuoc, Sanjay Kumar Shukla, Le Gia Lam, Nguyen Van Cuong

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This paper introduces a matching scheme for selection of soil/drain properties in analytical solution and numerical modelling (axisymmetric and plane strain conditions) of a ground improvement project by using Prefabricated Vertical Drains (PVD) in combination with vacuum and surcharge preloading. In-situ monitoring data from a case history of a road construction project in Vietnam was adopted in the back-analysis. Analytical solution and axisymmetric analysis can approximate well the field data meanwhile the horizontal permeability need to be adjusted in plane strain scenario to achieve good agreement. In addition, the influence zone of the ground treatment was examined. The residual settlement was investigated to justify the long-term settlement in compliance with the design code. Moreover, the degree of consolidation of non-PVD sub-layers was also studied by means of two different approaches.

Keywords: numerical modelling, prefabricated vertical drains, vacuum consolidation, soft soil

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Authors: Buddhi Arachchige, Hessam Ghasemnejad

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In this study, the post impact behavior of curved composite plates subjected to low velocity impact was studied analytically and numerically. Approaches to damage modelling are proposed through the degradation of stiffness in the damaged region by reduction of thickness in the damage region. Spring-mass models were used to model the impact response of the plate and impactor. The study involved designing two damage models to compare and contrast the model best fitted with the numerical results. The theoretical force-time responses were compared with the numerical results obtained through a detailed study carried out in LS-DYNA. The modified damage model established a good prediction with the analytical force-time response for different layups and geometry. This study provides a gateway in selecting the most effective layups for variable stiffness curved composite panels able to withstand a higher impact damage.

Keywords: analytical modelling, composite damage, impact, variable stiffness

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Authors: Alfredo R. Roa-Henriquez

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This paper is about organizational-level resilience and decision-making in the face of natural hazards. Research on resilience emerged to explain systems’ ability to absorb and recover in the midst of adversity and uncertainty from natural disasters, crises, and other disruptive events. While interest in resilience has accelerated, research multiplied, and the number of policies and implementations of resilience to natural hazards has increased over the last several years, mainly at the level of communities and regions, there has been a dearth of empirical work on resilience at the level of the firm. This paper uses empirical data and a sample selection model to test some hypotheses related to the firm’s dependence on critical resources, the sharing of resources and its economic resilience. The objective is to understand how the sharing of resources among organizations is related to economic resilience. Empirical results that are obtained from a sample of firms affected by Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Harvey indicate that there is unobserved heterogeneity that explains the strategic behavior of firms in the post-disaster and that those firms that are more likely to resource share are also the ones that exhibit higher economic resilience. The impact of property damage on the sharing of resources and economic resilience is explored.

Keywords: economic resilience, resource sharing, critical resources, strategic management

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Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

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The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spill-over effects in the context of globalization and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: export, GFEVD, global VAR, international trade, weak exogeneity

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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