Search results for: credit growth

Authors: Laurent Maurin, Mervi Toivanen

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This paper estimates euro area banks’ internal target capital ratios and investigates whether banks’ adjustment to the targets have an impact on credit supply and holding of securities during the financial crisis in 2005-2011. Using data on listed banks and country-specific macro-variables a partial adjustment model is estimated in a panel context. The results indicate, firstly, that an increase in the riskiness of banks’ balance sheets influences positively on the target capital ratios. Secondly, the adjustment towards higher equilibrium capital ratios has a significant impact on banks’ assets. The impact is found to be more size-able on security holdings than on loans, thereby suggesting a pecking order.

Keywords: Euro area, capital ratios, credit supply, partial adjustment model

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Authors: Xiaoyu Shen, Fang Fang, Chujun Qiu

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Herewith we present a Fourier method for credit risk quantification and allocation in the factor-copula model framework. The key insight is that, compared to directly computing the cumulative distribution function of the portfolio loss via Monte Carlo simulation, it is, in fact, more efficient to calculate the transformation of the distribution function in the Fourier domain instead and inverting back to the real domain can be done in just one step and semi-analytically, thanks to the popular COS method (with some adjustments). We also show that the Euler risk allocation problem can be solved in the same way since it can be transformed into the problem of evaluating a conditional cumulative distribution function. Once the conditional or unconditional cumulative distribution function is known, one can easily calculate various risk metrics. The proposed method not only fills the niche in literature, to the best of our knowledge, of accurate numerical methods for risk allocation but may also serve as a much faster alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation method for risk quantification in general. It can cope with various factor-copula model choices, which we demonstrate via examples of a two-factor Gaussian copula and a two-factor Gaussian-t hybrid copula. The fast error convergence is proved mathematically and then verified by numerical experiments, in which Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and conditional Expected Shortfall are taken as examples of commonly used risk metrics. The calculation speed and accuracy are tested to be significantly superior to the MC simulation for real-sized portfolios. The computational complexity is, by design, primarily driven by the number of factors instead of the number of obligors, as in the case of Monte Carlo simulation. The limitation of this method lies in the "curse of dimension" that is intrinsic to multi-dimensional numerical integration, which, however, can be relaxed with the help of dimension reduction techniques and/or parallel computing, as we will demonstrate in a separate paper. The potential application of this method has a wide range: from credit derivatives pricing to economic capital calculation of the banking book, default risk charge and incremental risk charge computation of the trading book, and even to other risk types than credit risk.

Keywords: credit portfolio, risk allocation, factor copula model, the COS method, Fourier method

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Authors: G. Sarwar, C. Mateus, N. Todorovic

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The paper examines the asymmetries in size, value and momentum premium over the economic cycles in the UK and their macroeconomic determinants. Using Markov switching approach we find clear evidence of cyclical variations of the three premiums, most noticeably variations in size premium. We associate Markov switching regime 1 with economic upturn and regime 2 with economic downturn as per OECD’s Composite Leading Indicator. The macroeconomic indicators prompting such cyclicality the most are interest rates, term structure and credit spread. The role of GDP growth, money supply and inflation is less pronounced in our sample.

Keywords: macroeconomic determinants, Markorv Switching, size, value

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Authors: Manfred F. Maute, Olga Naumenko, Raymond T. Kong

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Using data from a nationally representative financial panel of Canadian households, this study develops a psychographic segmentation of the customers of a value-expressive credit card service and tests for effects on relational response differences. The variety of segments elicited by agglomerative and k means clustering and the familiar profiles of individual clusters suggest that the face validity of the psychographic segmentation was quite high. Segmentation had a significant effect on customer satisfaction and relationship depth. However, when socio-demographic characteristics like household size and income were accounted for in the psychographic segmentation, the effect on relational response differences was magnified threefold. Implications for the segmentation of financial services markets are considered.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, financial services, psychographics, response differences, segmentation

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

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Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

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Authors: Amelia Morris, Lizzie Coles-Kemp, Will Jones

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This paper examines how community welfare initiatives transform how individuals use and experience an ostensibly universal welfare system. This paper argues that the digitalisation of welfare overlooks the complex reality of being unemployed or in low-wage work, and erects digital barriers to accessing welfare. Utilising analysis of ethnographic research in food banks and community groups, the paper explores the ways that Universal Credit has not abolished face-to-face support, but relocated it to unofficial sites of welfare. The apparent efficiency and simplicity of the state’s digital welfare apparatus, therefore, is produced not by reducing the ‘messiness’ of welfare, but by rendering it invisible within the digital framework. Using the analysis of the study’s data, this paper recommends three principles of service design that would render the messiness visible to the state.

Keywords: welfare, digitalisation, food bank, Universal Credit

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Authors: Olanike A. Ojo, Akindele M. Ojo, Jacob H. Tsado, Ramatu U. Kutigi

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The study was carried out on analysis of the effect of farmers’ socio-economic factors on the net farm income of catfish farmers in Kwara State, Nigeria. Primary data were collected from selected catfish farmers with the aid of well-structured questionnaire and a multistage sampling technique was used to select 102 catfish farmers in the area. The analytical techniques involved the use of descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis. The findings of the analysis of socio-economic characteristics of catfish farmers reveal that 60% of the catfish farmers in the study area were male gender which implied the existence of gender inequality in the area. The mean age of 47 years was an indication that they were at their economically productive age and could contribute positively to increased production of catfish in the area. Also, the mean household size was five while the mean year of experience was five. The latter implied that the farmers were experienced in fishing techniques, breeding and fish culture which would assist in generating more revenue, reduce cost of production and eventual increase in profit levels of the farmers. The result also revealed that stock capacity (X3), accessibility to credit (X7) and labour (X4) were the main determinants of catfish production in the area. In addition, farmer’s sex, household size, no of ponds, distance of the farm from market, access to credit were the main socio-economic factors influencing the net farm income of the catfish farmers in the area. The most serious constraints militating against catfish production in the study area were high mortality rate, insufficient market, inadequate credit facilities/ finance and inadequate skilled labour needed for daily production routine. Based on the findings, it is therefore recommended that, to reduce the mortality rate of catfish extension agents should organize training workshops on improved methods and techniques of raising catfish right from juvenile to market size.

Keywords: credit, income, stock, mortality

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Authors: Valencia P. L. Rodrigo, Morita A. Adelina, Vargas V. Martin

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This proposal consists of an analysis of macro concepts involved within an organization growth using educational technologies, which will relate each concept, in a mathematical way with a vision of harmonic work. Working collaboratively, competitively and cooperatively so that this growth is harmonious and homogenous, coining a new term, Harmonic Work. The Harmonic Work ensures that the organization grows in all business directions, allowing managers to project a much more accurate growth, making clear the contribution of each department, resulting in an algorithm that analyzes each of the variables both endogenous and exogenous, establishing different performance indicators in its process of growth.

Keywords: business projection, collaboration, competitiveness, educational technology, harmonious growth

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Authors: Abhinav Singh

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Point Of Sale (POS) malwares have been stealing the limelight this year. They have been the elemental factor in some of the biggest breaches uncovered in past couple of years. Some of them include • Target: A Retail Giant reported close to 40 million credit card data being stolen • Home Depot : A home product Retailer reported breach of close to 50 million credit records • Kmart: A US retailer recently announced breach of 800 thousand credit card details. Alone in 2014, there have been reports of over 15 major breaches of payment systems around the globe. Memory scrapping malwares infecting the point of sale devices have been the lethal weapon used in these attacks. These malwares are capable of reading the payment information from the payment device memory before they are being encrypted. Later on these malwares send the stolen details to its parent server. These malwares are capable of recording all the critical payment information like the card number, security number, owner etc. All these information are delivered in raw format. This Talk will cover the aspects of what happens after these details have been sent to the malware authors. The entire ecosystem of credit card frauds can be broadly classified into these three steps: • Purchase of raw details and dumps • Converting them to plastic cash/cards • Shop! Shop! Shop! The focus of this talk will be on the above mentioned points and how they form an organized network of cyber-crime. The first step involves buying and selling of the stolen details. The key point to emphasize are : • How is this raw information been sold in the underground market • The buyer and seller anatomy • Building your shopping cart and preferences • The importance of reputation and vouches • Customer support and replace/refunds These are some of the key points that will be discussed. But the story doesn’t end here. As of now the buyer only has the raw card information. How will this raw information be converted to plastic cash? Now comes in picture the second part of this underground economy where-in these raw details are converted into actual cards. There are well organized services running underground that can help you in converting these details into plastic cards. We will discuss about this technique in detail. At last, the final step involves shopping with the stolen cards. The cards generated with the stolen details can be easily used to swipe-and-pay for purchased goods at different retail shops. Usually these purchases are of expensive items that have good resale value. Apart from using the cards at stores, there are underground services that lets you deliver online orders to their dummy addresses. Once the package is received it will be delivered to the original buyer. These services charge based on the value of item that is being delivered. The overall underground ecosystem of credit card fraud works in a bulletproof way and it involves people working in close groups and making heavy profits. This is a brief summary of what I plan to present at the talk. I have done an extensive research and have collected good deal of material to present as samples. Some of them include: • List of underground forums • Credit card dumps • IRC chats among these groups • Personal chat with big card sellers • Inside view of these forum owners. The talk will be concluded by throwing light on how these breaches are being tracked during investigation. How are credit card breaches tracked down and what steps can financial institutions can build an incidence response over it.

Keywords: POS mawalre, credit card frauds, enterprise security, underground ecosystem

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Authors: Yuan-Lin Liu, Ye Li, Tian Xia

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Taxi-calling APPs have been used widely, while brought both benefits and a variety of issues for the taxi market. Many countries do not know whether the benefits are remarkable than the issues or not. This paper established a comparison between the basic scenario (2009-2012) and a taxi-calling software usage scenario (2012-2015) to explain the impact of taxi-calling APPs. The impacts of taxi-calling APPs illustrated by the comparison results are: 1) The supply and demand distribution is more balanced, extending from the city center to the suburb. The availability of taxi service has been improved in low density areas, thin market attribute has also been improved; 2)The ratio of short distance taxi trip decreased, long distance service increased, the utilization of mileage increased, and the rate of empty decreased; 3) The popularity of taxi-calling APPs was able to reduce the average empty distance, cruise time, empty mileage rate and average times of loading passengers, can also enhance the average operating speed, improve the taxi operating level, and reduce social cost although there are some disadvantages. This paper argues that the taxi industry and government can establish an integrated third-party credit information platform based on credit evaluated by the data of the drivers’ driving behaviors to supervise the drivers. Taxi-calling APPs under fully covered supervision in the mobile Internet environment will become a new trend.

Keywords: taxi, taxi-calling APPs, credit, scenario comparison

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Authors: Shoji Katagiri, Hugang Han

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This paper clarifies the role of ICT capital in Economic Growth. Albeit ICT remarkably contributes to economic growth, there are few studies on ICT capital in ICT sector from theoretical point of view. In this paper, production function of ICT which is used as input of intermediate good in final good and ICT sectors is incorporated into our model. In this setting, we analyze the role of ICT on balance growth path and show the possibility of general equilibrium solutions for this model. Through the simulation of the equilibrium solutions, we find that when ICT impacts on economy and economic growth increases, it is necessary that increases of efficiency at ICT sector and of accumulation of non-ICT and ICT capitals occur simultaneously.

Keywords: endogenous economic growth, ICT, intensity, capital accumulation

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Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu

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Richard's growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richard's growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richard's growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richard's nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richard's growth model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, Richard's, stochastic

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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Authors: Gona Ayuba, Isiaka Mohammed, Kotom Mohammed Baba, Mohammed Aabubakar Maikasuwa

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The study examined the technical efficiency and its determinants of cattle fattening enterprises in Kebbi state, Nigeria. Data were collected from a sample of 160 fatteners between June 2010 and June 2011 using the multistage random sampling technique. Translog stochastic frontier production function was employed for the analysis. Results of the analysis show that technical efficiency indices varied from 0.74 to 0.98%, with a mean of 0.90%, indicating that there was no wide gap between the efficiency of best technical efficient fatteners and that of the average fattener. The result also showed that fattening experience and herd size influenced the level of technical efficiency at 1% levels. It is recommended that credit agencies should ensure that credit made available to the fatteners is monitored to ensure appropriate utilization.

Keywords: technical efficiency, determinants, cattle, fattening enterprises

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Authors: Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin, Angela Unna Chukwu

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Richrads growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richards growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richards growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richards nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richards growth model.

Keywords: height, diameter at breast height, DBH, hyperbolic sine function, Pinus caribaea, Richards' growth model

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Authors: Abebaw Assaye, Seiichi Sakurai, Marutama Atsush, Dawit Alemu

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Rice is considered as a strategic agricultural commodity targeting national food security and import substitution in Ethiopia and diverse measures are put in place a number of initiatives to ensure the growth and development of rice sector in the country. This study assessed factors that influence smallholder farmers' level of rice commercialization in Ethiopia. The required data were generated from 594 randomly sampled rice producers using multi-stage sampling techniques from four major rice-producing regional states. Both descriptive and econometric methods were used to analyze the data. We adopted the ordered probit model to analyze factors determining output commercialization in the rice market. The ordered probit model result showed that the sex of the household head, educational status of the household head, credit use, proportion of irrigated land cultivated, membership in social groups, and land dedicated to rice production were found to influence significantly and positively the probability of being commercial-oriented. Conversely, the age of the household, total cultivated land, and distance to the main market were found to influence negatively. These findings suggest that promoting productivity-increasing technologies, development of irrigation facilities, strengthening of social institutions, and facilitating access to credit are crucial for enhancing the commercialization of rice in the study area. Since agricultural lands are limited, intensified farming through promoting improved rice technologies and mechanized farming could be an option to enhance marketable surplus and increase level of rice market particicpation.

Keywords: rice, commercialization, Tobit, ordered probit, Ethiopia

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Authors: Amir Ikram, Faisal Ijaz, Qin Su

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The empirical study was undertaken to explore the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) sector held by the commercial banks. Primary data was collected through well-structured survey questionnaire from credit analysts/bankers of 42 branches of 9 commercial banks, operating in the district of Lahore (Pakistan), for 2014-2015. Selective descriptive analysis and Pearson chi-square technique were used to illustrate and evaluate the significance of different variables affecting NPLs. Branch age, duration of the loan, and credit policy were found to be significant determinants of NPLs. The study proposes that bank-specific and SME-specific microeconomic variables directly influence NPLs, while macroeconomic factors act as intermediary variables. Framework exhibiting causal nexus of NPLs was also drawn on the basis of empirical findings. The results elaborate various origins of NPLs and suggest that they are primarily instigated by the loan sanctioning procedure of the financial institution. The paper also underlines the risk management practices adopted by the bank at branch level to averse the risk of loan default. Empirical investigation of bank-specific microeconomic factors of NPLs with respect to Pakistan’s economy is the novelty of the study. Broader strategic policy implications are provided for credit analysts and entrepreneurs.

Keywords: commercial banks, microeconomic factors, non-performing loans, small and medium enterprises

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Authors: Kang-Hyun Leem, Myung-Gyou Kim, Hye Kyung Kim

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Eggs have long been an important contributor to the nutritional quality of the human, and recognized as a very valuable source of proteins for human nutrition. Egg yolk is composed of various important chemical substances for human health. Growth means not only the increase of body weight but also the elongation of height and the enlargement of each organ's anatomical and morphological size. A calcium shortage causes the growth retardation on the body growth. In this study, we examined the therapeutic effects of egg yolk peptide (EYP) on the retardation of the longitudinal bone growth induced by low-calcium diet (0.05%) in adolescent rats. Low calcium diets were administrated for 15 days. During the last five days, calcium and/or vitamin D and/or EYP were administrated. The body weights, longitudinal bone growth rates, the heights of growth plates, and bone morphogenetic protein (BMP)-2 and insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-1 expressions were measured using histochemical analysis. Low calcium diets caused the significant reduction in body weight gains and the longitudinal bone growth. The heights of growth plates and the expressions of BMP-2 and IGF-1 showed the impairment of body growth as well. Calcium and/or vitamin D administration could not significantly increase the longitudinal bone growth. However, calcium, vitamin D, and EYP administration significantly increased the bone growth, the growth plate height, and BMP-2 and IGF-1 expressions. These results suggest that EYP enhances the longitudinal bone growth in the calcium and/or vitamin D deficiency and it could be a promising agent for the treatment of children suffering from malnutrition.

Keywords: egg yolk peptide, low-calcium diet, longitudinal bone growth, morphogenetic protein-2, insulin-like growth factor-1, vitamin D

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Authors: Osama A. Terfas, Abdelhakim A. Hameda, Abdusalam A. Alktiwi

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An investigation on ductile crack growth of shallow semi-elliptical surface cracks with a/w=0.2, a/c=0.33 under bending was carried out, where a is the crack depth, w is the plate thickness and c is the crack length at surface. Finite element analysis and experiments were modelling and the crack growth model were verified with experimental data. The results showed that the initial crack shape was no longer maintained as the crack developed under ductile tearing. The maximum growth at the deepest point at early stages was stopped when the crack depth reached half thickness and growth occurred beneath surface. Excellent agreement in the crack shape patterns was observed between the experiments and the crack growth model.

Keywords: crack growth, ductile tearing, mean stress, surface cracks

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Authors: Pál Mészáros

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The aim of this research topic is to examine civil law consequences caused by crimes committed in the digital space. During the commission of certain crimes, not only the rights of one person are violated, but also the rights of an entire institution, for example, if the information system of a university is attacked. The consequences of these crimes committed in the digital space may also be that the victim himself is liable to other third parties, for example, in the event that health data comes into the possession of unauthorized persons, and it can be proved that the service provider's IT system was inadequate. An interesting question may also be the civil liability of credit institutions if someone becomes a victim of fraud but is not expected from him/her to notice the fraud. In such a case, the liability of the credit institution may arise if they do not respond in time in the case of unauthorized bank transactions. Based on the above, the main topic of the research is the civil liability of the victim, or another person or company related to the victim in the case of damages caused by crimes.

Keywords: civil liability, digital crimes, transfer of responsibility, civil law

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Authors: Apra Sinha

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The inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) demonstrates(pollution-income relationship)that initially the pollution and environmental degradation surpass the level of income per capita; however this trend reverses since at the higher income levels, economic growth initiates environmental upgrading. However, what effect does increased environmental degradation has on growth is the missing feedback link which has not been addressed in the EKC hypothesis. This paper examines the missing feedback link in EKC hypothesis in Indian context by examining the casual association between fossil fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth for India. Fossil fuel consumption here has been taken as a proxy of driver of economic growth. The casual association between the aforementioned variables has been analyzed using five interventions namely 1) urban development for which urbanization has been taken proxy 2) industrial development for which industrial value added has been taken proxy 3) trade liberalization for which sum of exports and imports as a share of GDP has been taken as proxy 4)financial development for which a)domestic credit to private sector and b)net foreign assets has been taken as proxies. The choice of interventions for this study has been done keeping in view the economic liberalization perspective of India. The main aim of the paper is to investigate the missing feedback link for Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis before and after incorporating the intervening variables. The period of study is from 1971 to 2011 as it covers pre and post liberalization era in India. All the data has been taken from World Bank country level indicators. The Johansen and Juselius cointegration testing methodology and Error Correction based Granger causality have been applied on all the variables. The results clearly show that out of five interventions, only in two interventions the missing feedback link is being addressed. This paper can put forward significant policy implications for environment protection and sustainable development.

Keywords: environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, fossil fuel consumption, industrialization, trade liberalization, urbanization

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Authors: Abubakar Sadiq Mensah

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The Knowledge of the population growth of a nation is paramount to national planning. The population of a place is studied and a model developed over a period of time, Matrices is used to form model for population growth. The eigenvalue ƛ of the matrix A and its corresponding eigenvector X is such that AX = ƛX is calculated. The stable age distribution of the population is obtained using the eigenvalue and the characteristic polynomial. Hence, estimation could be made using eigenvalues and eigenvectors.

Keywords: eigenvalues, eigenvectors, population, growth/stability

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Authors: Ayşen Edirneligil, Mehmet Mucuk

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In developing countries, one of the most important restrictions about the economic growth is the lack of national savings which are supposed to finance the investments. In order to overcome this restriction and achieve the higher rate of economic growth by increasing the level of output, countries choose the external borrowing. However, there is a dispute in the literature over the correlation between external debt and economic growth. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of external debt on Turkish economic growth by using VAR analysis with the quarterly data over the period of 2002:01-2014:04. In this respect, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse- Response Function and Variance Decomposition Tests will be used for analyses. Empirical findings show that there is no cointegration in the long run.

Keywords: external debt, economic growth, Turkish economy, time series analysis

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Authors: Kutub Uddin Chisty, Md. Kamrul Islam, Md. Ashraful Islam

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Growth pattern is an important factor for a city because it can help to predict future growth trend and development of a city. Khagrachari District is one of the three hill tracts districts in Bangladesh. It is bordered by the Indian State of Tripura on the north, Rangamati and Chittagong districts on the south, Rangamati district on the east, Chittagong district and the Indian State of Tripura on the west. Khagrachari Pourashava is surrounded by hills and waterways. The Pourashava area is mostly inhibited by non-tribal population, while tribal population lives in hilly regions within and around the Pourashava area. The hilly area growth is different. Based on questioners and expert opinions survey, growth pattern of Khagrachari is evaluated. Different culture, history, tribal people, non-tribal people enrich the hilly heritages. In our study, we analyse the city growth pattern and identify the prominent factors that influence the city growth. Thus, it can help us to identify growth trend of the city.

Keywords: growth pattern, growth trend, prominent factors, regional development

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Authors: Dilang Thouk Tharjiath

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This study seeks to examine determinants of access to finance: the case of micro and small enterprises in bonga town. It identifies the sector as the key to unlocking the economic potentials of the country. For the achievement of the objective of the study simple random and stratified sampling has been used to select 179 respondents, primary and secondary data were used, primary data were collected through face to face interview and preparing questionnaire and secondary data were collected through reviewing firms record and reports, quantitative research approach were used and the data obtained were analyzed using descriptive research design. Access to finance is one of the key obstacles of MSE’s not only when starting the business project but also when operating. Identifying the major determinants of access to finance is therefore quite crucial. Based on descriptive result the financiers specially formal financiers tend to grant credit easily for enterprises which are located near to town, having operators with higher educational level, experienced and with a positive attitudes towards or fulfill their lending procedures, and a firm having collateralized asset, prepare business plan, maintain accounting practice ,large and old enough. Finally the study recommended that As Educational level of entrepreneurs has significant effect on access to credit from bank and the managers or owners education level is low in Bonga town the concerned bodies of both the government and non-governmental institutions in collaboration with Bonga town MSE development office are recommended to create awareness and facilitate the provision of additional training for those with lower educational level.

Keywords: credit, entrepreneur, enterprise, manager

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Authors: Al-Saboonchi Azhar

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The effects of Iraqi crude oil on growth of three freshwater algae (Chlorella vulgaris Beij., Scenedesmus acuminatus (Lag.) Chodat. and Oscillatoria princeps Vauch.) were investigated, basing on it's biomass expressed as Chl.a. Growth rate and doubling time of the cell were calculated. Results showed that growth rate and species survival varied with concentrations of crude oil and species type. Chlorella vulgaris and Scenedesmus acuminatus were more sensitive in culture containing crude oil as compared with Oscillatoria princeps cultures. The growth of green algae were significantly inhibited in culture containing (5 mg/l) crude oil, while the growth of Oscillatoria princeps reduced in culture containing (10 mg/l) crude oil.

Keywords: algae, crude oil, green algae, Cyanobacteria

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Authors: Bernur Acikgoz

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of public spending on economic growth and examine the sources of economic growth in developed countries since the 1990s. This paper analyses whether public spending effect on economic growth based on Cobb-Douglas Production Function with the two econometric models with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) for 21 developed countries (high-income OECD countries), over the period 1990-2013. Our models results are parallel to each other and the models support that public spending has an important role for economic growth. This result is accurate with theories and previous empirical studies.

Keywords: public spending, economic growth, panel data, ARDL models

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Authors: Fekri Shawtari

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The banking sector plays a very crucial role in the economic development of the country. As a financial intermediary, it has assigned a great role in the economic growth and stability. This paper aims to examine the empirically the relationship between banking industry and economic growth in state of Qatar. We adopt the VAR vector error correction model (VECM) along with Granger causality to address the issue over the long-run and short-run between the banking sector and economic growth. It is expected that the results will give policy directions to the policymakers to make strategies that are conducive toward boosting development to achieve the targeted economic growth in current situation.

Keywords: economic growth, banking sector, Qatar, vector error correction model, VECM

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Authors: Philippe Gugler

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This contribution reflects some important questions regarding inter alia the economic development occurring in the light of the ASEAN’s goal of creating the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015. We observe a continuing economic growth of GDP per capita over recent years despite the negative effects of the world economic crisis. IMF forecasts indicate that this trend will continue. The paper focuses on the analysis and comparison of economic growth trends of ASEAN countries.

Keywords: ASEAN, convergence, divergence, economic growth, globalization, integration

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Authors: Bindya Jacob

Abstract:

The aim of the present study was to assess the quality of catchup growth induced by Oral Nutrition Supplement (ONS), in animal model of growth restriction due to under nutrition. Quality of catch-up growth was assessed by proportion of lean body mass (LBM) and fat mass (FM). Young SD rats were food restricted at 70% of normal caloric intake for 4 weeks; and re-fed at 120% of normal caloric intake for 4 weeks. Refeeding diet had 50% calories from animal diet and 50% from ONS formulated for optimal growth. After refeeding, the quantity and quality of catch-up growth were measured including weight, length, LBM and FM. During nutrient restriction, body weight and length of animals was reduced compared to healthy controls. Both LBM and FM were significantly lower than healthy controls (p < 0.001). Refeeding with ONS resulted in increase of weight and length, with significant catch-up growth compared to baseline (p < 0.001). Detailed examination of body composition showed that the catch-up in body weight was due to proportionate increase of LBM and FM, resulting in a final body composition similar to healthy controls. This data supports the use of well-designed ONS for recovery from growth restriction due to under nutrition, and return to normal growth trajectory characterized by normal ratio of lean and fat mass.

Keywords: catch up growth, body composition, nutrient restriction, healthy growth

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