Search results for: scenario comparison

Authors: Soheil Tavakolpour

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Enhance Oil Recovery (EOR) can be considered as an undeniable action in reservoirs life period. Different kind of EOR methods are available, but suitable EOR method depends on reservoir properties, like rock and fluid properties. In this paper, we nominated fifth SPE’s Comparative Solution Projects (CSP) for testing different scenarios. We used seven EOR scenarios for this reservoir and we simulated it for 10 years after 2 years production without any injection. The first scenario is waterflooding for whole of the 10 years period. The second scenario is gas injection for ten years. The third scenario is Water-Alternation-Gas (WAG). In the next scenario, water injected for 4 years before starting WAG injection for the next 6 years. In the fifth scenario, water injected after 6 years WAG injection for 4 years. For sixth and last scenarios, all the things are similar to fourth and fifth scenarios, but gas injected instead of water. Results show that fourth scenario was the most efficient method for 10 years EOR, but it resulted very high water production. Fifth scenario was efficient too, with little water production in comparison to the fourth scenario. Gas injection was not economically attractive. In addition to high gas production, it produced less oil in comparison to other scenarios.

Keywords: WAG, SPE’s comparative solution projects, numerical simulation, EOR scenarios

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Authors: Tom D. Gedeon, Ujala Rampaul

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The evaluation of electronic consumer goods are most often done from the perspective of analysing the latest models, comparing their advantages and disadvantages with respect to price. This style of evaluation is often performed by one or a few product experts on a wide range of features that may not be applicable to each user. We instead used a scenario-based approach to evaluate a number of e-readers. The setting is similar to a user who is interested in a new product or technology and has allocated a limited budget. We evaluate the quality and usability of e-readers available within that budget range. This is based on the assumption of a rational market which prices older second hand devices the same as functionally equivalent new devices. We describe our evaluation and comparison of four branded eReaders, as the initial stage of a larger project. The scenario has a range of tasks approximating a busy person who does not bother to read the manual. We found that navigation within books to be the most significant differentiator between the eReaders in our scenario based evaluation process.

Keywords: eReader, scenario based, price comparison, Kindle, Kobo, Nook, Sony, technology adoption

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Authors: Alex Maina, Mwenda Makathimo, Adwek George, Charles Opiyo

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This research entails the simulation of three possible power scenarios for Kenya from 2015 to 2035 using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). These scenarios represent the unfolding future electricity generation that will fully satisfy the demand while considering the following: energy security, power generation cost and impacts on the environment. These scenarios are Reference Scenario (RS), Nuclear Scenario (NS) and More Renewable Scenario (MRS). The findings obtained reveals that the most sustainable scenario while comparing the costs was found to be the coal scenario with a Net Present Value (NPV) of $30,052.67 million though it has the highest Green House Gases (GHGs) emissions. However, the More Renewable Scenario (MRS) had the least GHGs emissions but was found to be a most expensive scenario to implement with an NPV of $30,733.07 million.

Keywords: energy security, Kenya, low emissions analysis platform, net-present value, greenhouse gases

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Authors: Yuan-Lin Liu, Ye Li, Tian Xia

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Taxi-calling APPs have been used widely, while brought both benefits and a variety of issues for the taxi market. Many countries do not know whether the benefits are remarkable than the issues or not. This paper established a comparison between the basic scenario (2009-2012) and a taxi-calling software usage scenario (2012-2015) to explain the impact of taxi-calling APPs. The impacts of taxi-calling APPs illustrated by the comparison results are: 1) The supply and demand distribution is more balanced, extending from the city center to the suburb. The availability of taxi service has been improved in low density areas, thin market attribute has also been improved; 2)The ratio of short distance taxi trip decreased, long distance service increased, the utilization of mileage increased, and the rate of empty decreased; 3) The popularity of taxi-calling APPs was able to reduce the average empty distance, cruise time, empty mileage rate and average times of loading passengers, can also enhance the average operating speed, improve the taxi operating level, and reduce social cost although there are some disadvantages. This paper argues that the taxi industry and government can establish an integrated third-party credit information platform based on credit evaluated by the data of the drivers’ driving behaviors to supervise the drivers. Taxi-calling APPs under fully covered supervision in the mobile Internet environment will become a new trend.

Keywords: taxi, taxi-calling APPs, credit, scenario comparison

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Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

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Earthquake is known as one of the most frequent natural hazards in Iran. Therefore, policy making to improve the strengthening of structures is one of the requirements of the approach to prevent and reduce the risk of the destructive effects of earthquakes. In order to choose the optimal policy in the face of earthquakes, this article tries to examine the cost of financial damages caused by earthquakes in the building sector and compare it with the costs of retrofitting. In this study, the results of adopting the scenario of "action after the earthquake" and the policy scenario of "strengthening structures before the earthquake" have been collected, calculated and finally analyzed by putting them together. Methodologically, data received from governorates and building retrofitting engineering companies have been used. The scope of the study is earthquakes occurred in the geographical area of Iran, and among them, eight earthquakes have been specifically studied: Miane, Ahar and Haris, Qator, Momor, Khorasan, Damghan and Shahroud, Gohran, Hormozgan and Ezgole. The main basis of the calculations is the data obtained from retrofitting companies regarding the cost per square meter of building retrofitting and the data of the governorate regarding the power of earthquake destruction, the realized costs for the reconstruction and construction of residential units. The estimated costs have been converted to the value of 2021 using the time value of money method to enable comparison and aggregation. The cost-benefit comparison of the two policies of action after the earthquake and retrofitting before the earthquake in the eight earthquakes investigated shows that the country has suffered five thousand billion Tomans of losses due to the lack of retrofitting of buildings against earthquakes. Based on the data of the Budget Law's of Iran, this figure was approximately twice the budget of the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development and five times the budget of the Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation in 2021. The results show that the policy of retrofitting structures before an earthquake is significantly more optimal than the competing scenario. The comparison of the two policy scenarios examined in this study shows that the policy of retrofitting buildings before an earthquake, on the one hand, prevents huge losses, and on the other hand, by increasing the number of earthquake-resistant houses, it reduces the amount of earthquake destruction. In addition to other positive effects of retrofitting, such as the reduction of mortality due to earthquake resistance of buildings and the reduction of other economic and social effects caused by earthquakes. These are things that can prove the cost-effectiveness of the policy scenario of "strengthening structures before earthquakes" in Iran.

Keywords: disaster economy, earthquake economy, cost-benefit analysis, resilience

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Authors: Mahboobeh Hemmati, Tahar Messadi, Hongmei Gu

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This overall research is targeted at the assessment of the new CLT-built Adohi Hall residential building located on the campus of the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville, Arkansas. The purpose of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study is to analyze the environmental impacts resulting from the transportation route of the Austrian imported CLT to the construction site with those of the CLT assumed to be originating from Conway, Arkansas. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CLT from Europe (Styria-Graz in Austria) to the site was first investigated. The results were then compared with the GWP of the CLT produced in Conway, Arkansas. The impacts of each scenario, using the Ecoinvent database, are then calculated and compared against each other to find the most environmentally efficient scenario in terms of global warming impacts. The quantification of GWP is associated with different transportation systems, water, road, and rail. Obtained through comparison, the findings reveal that the use of local materials is more efficient. In addition, transportation by water produces less Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission in comparison to freight transportation by rail and road. Thus, besides the travel distance, the utilized transportation system is still a significant factor and should be seriously considered in making decisions for moving materials.

Keywords: comparative analysis, GWP, LCA, transportation

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Authors: Shih-Ting Yang, Chih-Yun Lin, Ming-Yu Li, Jhong-Ting Syue, Wei-Ming Huang

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Global positioning system (GPS) has become increasing precise in recent years, and the location-based service (LBS) has developed rapidly. Take the example of finding a parking lot (such as Parking apps). The location-based service can offer immediate information about a nearby parking lot, including the information about remaining parking spaces. However, it cannot provide expected search results according to the requirement situations of users. For that reason, this paper develops a “Location-based Search Approach according to Users’ Application Scenario” according to the location-based search and demand determination to help users obtain the information consistent with their requirements. The “Location-based Search Approach based on Users’ Application Scenario” of this paper consists of one mechanism and three kernel modules. First, in the Information Pre-processing Mechanism (IPM), this paper uses the cosine theorem to categorize the locations of users. Then, in the Information Category Evaluation Module (ICEM), the kNN (k-Nearest Neighbor) is employed to classify the browsing records of users. After that, in the Information Volume Level Determination Module (IVLDM), this paper makes a comparison between the number of users’ clicking the information at different locations and the average number of users’ clicking the information at a specific location, so as to evaluate the urgency of demand; then, the two-dimensional space is used to estimate the application situations of users. For the last step, in the Location-based Search Module (LBSM), this paper compares all search results and the average number of characters of the search results, categorizes the search results with the Manhattan Distance, and selects the results according to the application scenario of users. Additionally, this paper develops a Web-based system according to the methodology to demonstrate practical application of this paper. The application scenario-based estimate and the location-based search are used to evaluate the type and abundance of the information expected by the public at specific location, so that information demanders can obtain the information consistent with their application situations at specific location.

Keywords: data mining, knowledge management, location-based service, user application scenario

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Authors: Majid Amidpour, Parisa Karimi, Marzieh Joda

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For the last few years, release of burned undesirable by-products has become a challenging issue in oil industries. Flaring, as one of the main sources of air contamination, involves detrimental and long-lasting effects on human health and is considered a substantial reason for energy losses worldwide. This research involves studying the implications of two main flare gas recovery methods at three oil refineries, all in Iran as the case I, case II, and case III in which the production capacities are increasing respectively. In the proposed methods, flare gases are converted into more valuable products, before combustion by the flare networks. The first approach involves collecting, compressing and converting the flare gas to smokeless fuel which can be used in the fuel gas system of the refineries. The other scenario includes utilizing the flare gas as a feed into liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production unit already established in the refineries. The processes of these scenarios are simulated, and the capital investment is calculated for each procedure. The cumulative profits of the scenarios are evaluated using Net Present Value method. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis based on total propane and butane mole fraction is carried out to make a rational comparison for LPG production approach, and the results are illustrated for different mole fractions of propane and butane. As the mole fraction of propane and butane contained in LPG differs in summer and winter seasons, the results corresponding to LPG scenario are demonstrated for each season. The results of the simulations show that cumulative profit in fuel gas production scenario and LPG production rate increase with the capacity of the refineries. Moreover, the investment return time in LPG production method experiences a decline, followed by a rising trend with an increase in C₃ and C₄ content. The minimum value of time return occurs at propane and butane sum concentration values of 0.7, 0.6, and 0.7 in case I, II, and III, respectively. Based on comparison of the time of investment return and cumulative profit, fuel gas production is the superior scenario for three case studies.

Keywords: flare gas reduction, liquefied petroleum gas, fuel gas, net present value method, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Mehaiguene Madjid, Meddi Mohamed

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The results of applying the model WEAP 21 or 'Water Evaluation and Planning System' in Upper and Middle Cheliff are presented in cartographic and graphic forms by considering two scenarios: -Reference scenario 1961-1990, -Climate change scenarios (low and high) for 2020 and 2050. These scenarios are presented together in the results and compared them to know the impact on aquatic systems and water resources. For the low scenario for 2050, a decrease in the rate of runoff / infiltration will be 81.4 to 3.7 Hm3 between 2010 and 2050. While for the high scenario for 2050, the reduction will be 87.2 to 78.9 Hm3 between 2010 and 2050. Comparing the two scenarios, shows that the water supplied will increase by 216.7 Hm3 to 596 Hm3 up to 2050 if we do not take account of climate change. Whereas, if climate change will decrease step by step: from 2010 to 2026: for the climate change scenario (high scenario) by 2050, water supplied from 346 Hm3 to 361 Hm3. That of the reference scenario (1961-1990) will increase to 379.7 Hm3 in 2050. This is caused by the increased demand (increased population, irrigated area, etc ). The balance water management basin is positive for the different Horizons and different situations. If we do not take account of climate change will be the outflow of 5881.4 Hm3. This excess at the basin can be used as part of a transfer for example.

Keywords: balance water, management basin, climate change scenario, Upper and Middle Cheliff

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Authors: Edgard Gnansounoua, Pavel Vaskan, Elia Ruiz Pachón

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This work addresses the economic and environmental performance of integrated biorefineries based on sugarcane juice and residues in the context of Brazil. We have considered four multiproduct scenarios; two from existing Brazilian sugar mills and the others from ethanol autonomous distilleries. They are integrated biorefineries producing first (1G) and second (2G) generation ethanol, sugar, molasses (for animal feed) and electricity. We show the results for the analysis and comparison of the different scenarios using a techno-economic value-based approach and LCA methodology. We have found that all the analysed scenarios show positive values of Climate change and Fossil depletion reduction as compared to the reference systems. However the scenario producing only ethanol shows less efficiency in Human toxicity, Freshwater ecotoxicity and Freshwater eutrophication impacts. The best economic configuration is provided by the scenario with the largest ethanol production. On the other hand, the best environmental performance is presented by the scenario with full integration sugar – 1G2G ethanol production. The integration of 2G based residues in a 1G ethanol production plant leads to positive environmental impacts compared to the conventional 1G industrial plant but proves to be more expensive.

Keywords: sugarcane, biorefinery, 1G/2G bioethanol integration, LCA, Brazil

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Authors: Dharshini M., Hema N. S.

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The project for the production of aniline is done by providing 295.46 tons per day of nitrobenzene as feed. The material and energy balance calculations for the different equipment like distillation column, heat exchangers, reactor and mixer are carried out with simulation via DWSIM. The conversion of nitrobenzene to aniline by hydrogenation process is considered to be 96% and the total production of the plant was found to be 215 TPD. The cost estimation of the process is carried out to estimate the feasibility of the plant. The net profit and percentage return of investment is estimated to be ₹27 crores and 24.6%. The payback period was estimated to be 4.05 years and the unit production cost is ₹113/kg. A techno-economic analysis was performed for the production of aniline; the result includes economic analysis and sensitivity analysis of critical factors. From economic analysis, larger the plant scale increases the total capital investment and annual operating cost, even though the unit production cost decreases. Uncertainty analysis was performed to predict the influence of economic factors on profitability and the scenario analysis is one way to quantify uncertainty. In scenario analysis the best-case scenario and the worst-case scenario are compared with the base case scenario. The best-case scenario was found at a feed rate of 120 kmol/hr with a unit production cost of ₹112.05/kg and the worst-case scenario was found at a feed rate of 60 kmol/hr with a unit production cost of ₹115.9/kg. The base case is closely related to the best case by 99.2% in terms of unit production cost. since the unit production cost is less and the profitability is more with less payback time, it is feasible to construct a plant at this capacity.

Keywords: aniline, nitrobenzene, economic analysis, unit production cost

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Authors: Siti Indati Mustapa, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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Transportation sector represents more than 40% of total energy consumption in Malaysia. This sector is a major user of fossils based fuels, and it is increasingly being highlighted as the sector which contributes least to CO2 emission reduction targets. Considering this fact, this paper attempts to investigate the problem of reducing CO2 emission using linear programming approach. An optimization model which is used to investigate the optimal level of CO2 emission reduction in the road transport sector is presented. In this paper, scenarios have been used to demonstrate the emission reduction model: (1) utilising alternative fuel scenario, (2) improving fuel efficiency scenario, (3) removing fuel subsidy scenario, (4) reducing demand travel, (5) optimal scenario. This study finds that fuel balancing can contribute to the reduction of the amount of CO2 emission by up to 3%. Beyond 3% emission reductions, more stringent measures that include fuel switching, fuel efficiency improvement, demand travel reduction and combination of mitigation measures have to be employed. The model revealed that the CO2 emission reduction in the road transportation can be reduced by 38.3% in the optimal scenario.

Keywords: CO2 emission, fuel consumption, optimization, linear programming, transportation sector, Malaysia

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Authors: Julio C. Ferreira, Maria T. A. Steiner

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The aim of this work is to present a solution procedure referred to here as the Multi-objective Optimization for Green Vehicle Routing Problem (MOOGVRP) to provide solutions for a case study. The proposed methodology consists of three stages to resolve Scenario A. Stage 1 consists of the “treatment” of data; Stage 2 consists of applying mathematical models of the p-Median Capacitated Problem (with the objectives of minimization of distances and homogenization of demands between groups) and the Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem (with the objectives of minimizing distances and minimizing time). The weighted method was used as the multi-objective procedure. In Stage 3, an analysis of the results is conducted, taking into consideration the environmental aspects related to the case study, more specifically with regard to fuel consumption and air pollutant emission. This methodology was applied to a (partial) database that addresses newspaper distribution in the municipality of Curitiba, Paraná State, Brazil. The preliminary findings for Scenario A showed that it was possible to improve the distribution of the load, reduce the mileage and the greenhouse gas by 17.32% and the journey time by 22.58% in comparison with the current scenario. The intention for future works is to use other multi-objective techniques and an expanded version of the database and explore the triple bottom line of sustainability.

Keywords: Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem, Green Vehicle Routing Problem, Multi-objective Optimization, p-Median Capacitated Problem

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Authors: Amarpreet Singh, Kimi Manchanda

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Intended for providing the security in the VANETS (Vehicular Ad hoc Network) scenario, the covert storage channel is implemented through data transmitted between the sender and the receiver. Covert channels are the logical links which are used for the communication purpose and hiding the secure data from the intruders. This paper refers to the Establishment of bit selective mode covert storage channels in VANETS. In this scenario, the data is being transmitted with two modes i.e. the normal mode and the covert mode. During the communication between vehicles in this scenario, the controlling of bits is possible through the optional bits of IPV6 Header Format. This implementation is fulfilled with the help of Network simulator.

Keywords: covert mode, normal mode, VANET, OBU, on-board unit

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Authors: Sinisa J. Vukicevic

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Edmonton is currently one of the youngest North American cities and has achieved significant growth over the past 40 years. Strong urban shift requires a new approach to how the city is envisioned, planned, and built. This approach is evidence-based scenario development, and an urban growth model was a key support tool in framing Edmonton development strategies, developing urban policies, and assessing policy implications. The urban growth model has been developed using the Metronamica software platform. The Metronamica land use model evaluated the dynamic of land use change under the influence of key development drivers (population and employment), zoning, land suitability, and land and activity accessibility. The model was designed following the Big City Moves ideas: become greener as we grow, develop a rebuildable city, ignite a community of communities, foster a healing city, and create a city of convergence. The Big City Moves were converted to three development scenarios: ‘Strong Central City’, ‘Node City’, and ‘Corridor City’. Each scenario has a narrative story that expressed scenario’s high level goal, scenario’s approach to residential and commercial activities, to transportation vision, and employment and environmental principles. Land use demand was calculated for each scenario according to specific density targets. Spatial policies were analyzed according to their level of importance within the policy set definition for the specific scenario, but also through the policy measures. The model was calibrated on the way to reproduce known historical land use pattern. For the calibration, we used 2006 and 2011 land use data. The validation is done independently, which means we used the data we did not use for the calibration. The model was validated with 2016 data. In general, the modeling process contain three main phases: ‘from qualitative storyline to quantitative modelling’, ‘model development and model run’, and ‘from quantitative modelling to qualitative storyline’. The model also incorporates five spatial indicators: distance from residential to work, distance from residential to recreation, distance to river valley, urban expansion and habitat fragmentation. The major finding of this research could be looked at from two perspectives: the planning perspective and technology perspective. The planning perspective evaluates the model as a tool for scenario development. Using the model, we explored the land use dynamic that is influenced by a different set of policies. The model enables a direct comparison between the three scenarios. We explored the similarities and differences of scenarios and their quantitative indicators: land use change, population change (and spatial allocation), job allocation, density (population, employment, and dwelling unit), habitat connectivity, proximity to objects of interest, etc. From the technology perspective, the model showed one very important characteristic: the model flexibility. The direction for policy testing changed many times during the consultation process and model flexibility in applying all these changes was highly appreciated. The model satisfied our needs as scenario development and evaluation tool, but also as a communication tool during the consultation process.

Keywords: urban growth model, scenario development, spatial indicators, Metronamica

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Authors: B. Sudhakara Reddy

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The transition to a clean and green energy system is an economic and social transformation that is exciting as well as challenging. The world today faces a formidable challenge in transforming its economy from being driven primarily by fossil fuels, which are non-renewable and a major source of global pollution, to becoming an economy that can function effectively using renewable energy sources and by achieving high energy efficiency levels. In the present study, a green economy scenario is developed for India using a bottom-up approach. The results show that the penetration rate of renewable energy resources will reduce the total primary energy demand by 23% under GE. Improvements in energy efficiency (e.g. households, industrial and commercial sectors) will result in reduced demand to the tune of 318 MTOE. The volume of energy-related CO2 emissions decline to 2,218 Mt in 2030 from 3,440 under the BAU scenario and the per capita emissions will reduce by about 35% (from 2.22 to 1.45) under the GE scenario. The reduction in fossil fuel demand and focus on clean energy will reduce the energy intensity to 0.21 (TOE/US$ of GDP) and carbon intensity to 0.42 (ton/US$ of GDP) under the GE scenario. total import bill (coal and oil) will amount to US$ 334 billion by 2030 (at 2010/11 prices), but as per the GE scenario, it would be US$ 194.2 billion, a saving of about US$ 140 billion. The building of a green energy economy can also serve another purpose: to develop new ‘pathways out of poverty’ by creating more than 10 million jobs and thus raise the standard of living of low-income people. The differences between the baseline and green energy scenarios are not so much the consequence of the diffusion of various technologies. It is the result of the active roles of different actors and the drivers that become dominant.

Keywords: emissions, green energy, fossil fuels, green jobs, renewables, scenario

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Authors: Lida Landicho, Analiza R. Adarlo, Janine Mae V. Corpuz, Joan C. Villanueva

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Testing the idea that the process of forgiveness is intrinsically different across diverse relationships, this study examined whether forgiveness can already be facilitated by children ages 4-6. Two different intervention sessions which consists of 40 children (half heard stories about unfair blame and half heard stories about a double standard (between subjects variable) was completed. Investigators performed experimental analyses to examine the role of forgiveness in social and familial context. Results indicated that forgiveness can already be facilitated by children. Children see scenarios on double standard to be more unfair than normal scenarios (Scenario 2 (double standard) (M=7.54) Scenario 1 (unfair blame) (M=4.50), Scenario 4 (double standard) (M=7.) Scenario 3 (getting blamed for something the friend did) (M=6.80)p <.05.The findings confirmed that children were generally willing to grant forgiveness to a mother even though she was unfair, but less so to a friend. Correlations between sex, age and forgiveness were analyzed. Significant relationships was found on scenarios presented and caring task scores (rxy= -.314).Their tendency to forgive was related to dispositional and situational factors.

Keywords: forgiveness, situational and dispositional factors, familial context, social context

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Authors: Safiah Ahmed Yahya Madkhali

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The aim of the present paper is to provide a characterization of the expression of comparison in the language of the Qur’an, the language of the Divine Book of the Muslim nation. It focuses on quantitative as well as qualitative comparisons. While works on comparison constructions in Arabic focus on a type(s) of the comparison construction and exclude another and investigate its behaviour in Standard Arabic, the paper aims to be inclusive of the varied instances that are scalar comparison constructions and describe its aspects in the language of the Qur’an. To the best of my knowledge, comparative constructions in the language of the Qur’an has not been tackled before and hence the characterization provided in the paper would be the contribution of the present work. The paper highlights the several rhetorical features of the construction as present in the different verses in the Qur’an which set them distinct from the ordinary use of the construction in the different verities of the Arabic language.

Keywords: comparison constructions, inequality, comparative, superlative, equality

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Authors: Chinazo Onyeka Eziuzo

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This work presents the simulation and control of the flywheel system in the rotor of a wind turbine using Simulink and OpenFAST for assessing the effect on the mechanical loads. This concept allows the flywheel system to serve two main tasks: supporting the power system and mitigating the mechanical loads in the wind turbine. These tasks are grouped into four control scenarios; scenario 1 represents steadying the power infeed in the Flywheel, scenario 2 represents steadying power with FW and grid loss, scenario 3 represents mitigating excitations from gravity, and scenario 4 represents damping in-plane blade vibrations. The s-function of the OpenFAST model was used to substitute the given 1st Eigen mode model of the WT. After that, the simulations were run for the above-listed scenarios. Additionally, the effects of the control options on the mechanical loads were assessed, and it was established that the FW system assists in steadying infeed power and mechanical load mitigation.

Keywords: simulation, control, wind turbine, OpenFAST

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Authors: L. Heidari, M. Jalili Ghazizade

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This paper aims to determine the best environmental and economic scenario for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management of the Maku city by using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. The functional elements of this study are collection, transportation, and disposal of MSW in Maku city. Waste composition and density, as two key parameters of MSW, have been determined by field sampling, and then, the other important specifications of MSW like chemical formula, thermal energy and water content were calculated. These data beside other information related to collection and disposal facilities are used as a reliable source of data to assess the environmental impacts of different waste management options, including landfills, composting, recycling and energy recovery. The environmental impact of MSW management options has been investigated in 15 different scenarios by Integrated Waste Management (IWM) software. The photochemical smog, greenhouse gases, acid gases, toxic emissions, and energy consumption of each scenario are measured. Then, the environmental indices of each scenario are specified by weighting these parameters. Economic costs of scenarios have been also compared with each other based on literature. As final result, since the organic materials make more than 80% of the waste, compost can be a suitable method. Although the major part of the remaining 20% of waste can be recycled, due to the high cost of necessary equipment, the landfill option has been suggested. Therefore, the scenario with 80% composting and 20% landfilling is selected as superior environmental and economic scenario. This study shows that, to select a scenario with practical applications, simultaneously environmental and economic aspects of different scenarios must be considered.

Keywords: IWM software, life cycle assessment, Maku, municipal solid waste management

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Authors: Abul Quasem Al-Amin, Md. Hasanuzzaman, Mohammad Nurul Azam, Walter Leal Filho

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With regard to the future energy strategy and vision, this study aimed to find the drawbacks of proposed energy diversification policy for 2020. To have a clear picture of the drawback and competitive alternative, this study has explored two scenarios, namely Scenario a and Scenario b. The Scenario a indicates that in the year 2020 the GHG emissions would be 823,498.00 million tons (Mt) with a 2020 final demand and proposed fuel mix such as by the Five-Fuel Diversification Strategy. In contrast, as an alternative, the Scenario b with biofuel potentials indicates that the substitution of coal energy by 5%, 10%, and 15%, respectively, with biofuel, would reduce the GHG emissions from 374,551.00, 405,118.00, and 823,498.00 million tons to 339,964.00, 329,834.00, and 305,288.00 million tons, respectively, by the present fuel mix, business-as-usual fuel mix, and proposed fuel mix up to the year 2020. Therefore, this study has explored a healthy alternative by introducing biofuel renewable energy option instead of conventional energy utilization in the power generation with environmental aspect in minds. This study effort would lessen the gap between GHG mitigation and future sustainable development and would useful to formulate effective renewable energy strategy in Malaysia.

Keywords: energy, environmental impacts, renewable energy, biofuel, energy policy

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Authors: S. Jamshidi, E. Feizi Ashtiani, M. Ardestani, A. Feizi Ashtiani

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Waste load allocation (WLA) strategies usually intend to find economical policies for water resource management. Water quality trading (WQT) is an approach that uses discharge permit market to reduce total environmental protection costs. This primarily requires assigning discharge limits known as total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). These are determined by monitoring organizations with respect to the receiving water quality and remediation capabilities. The purpose of this study is to compare two approaches of TMDL assignment for WQT policy in small catchment area of Haraz River, in north of Iran. At first, TMDLs are assigned uniformly for the whole point sources to keep the concentrations of BOD and dissolved oxygen (DO) at the standard level at checkpoint (terminus point). This was simply simulated and controlled by Qual2kw software. In the second scenario, TMDLs are assigned using multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) method in which the environmental violation at river basin and total treatment costs are minimized simultaneously. In both scenarios, the equity index and the WLA based on trading discharge permits (TDP) are calculated. The comparative results showed that using economically optimized TMDLs (2nd scenario) has slightly more cost savings rather than uniform TMDL approach (1st scenario). The former annually costs about 1 M$ while the latter is 1.15 M$. WQT can decrease these annual costs to 0.9 and 1.1 M$, respectively. In other word, these approaches may save 35 and 45% economically in comparison with command and control policy. It means that using multi objective decision support systems (DSS) may find more economical WLA, however its outcome is not necessarily significant in comparison with uniform TMDLs. This may be due to the similar impact factors of dischargers in small catchments. Conversely, using uniform TMDLs for WQT brings more equity that makes stakeholders not feel that much envious of difference between TMDL and WQT allocation. In addition, for this case, determination of TMDLs uniformly would be much easier for monitoring. Consequently, uniform TMDL for TDP market is recommended as a sustainable approach. However, economical TMDLs can be used for larger watersheds.

Keywords: waste load allocation (WLA), water quality trading (WQT), total maximum daily loads (TMDLs), Haraz River, multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO), equity

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Authors: Marina Kapsali, John S. Anagnostopoulos

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On the basis of comparative analysis of alternative “development scenarios” for electricity generation, the main objective of the present study is to investigate the techno-economic viability of high wind energy (WE) use at the local (island) level. An integrated theoretical model is developed based on first principles assuming two main possible scenarios for covering future electrification needs of a medium–sized Greek island, i.e. Lesbos. The first scenario (S1), assumes that the island will keep using oil products as the main source for electricity generation. The second scenario (S2) involves the interconnection of the island with the mainland grid to satisfy part of the electricity demand, while remarkable WE penetration is also achieved. The economic feasibility of the above solutions is investigated in terms of determining their Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for the time-period 2020-2045, including also a sensitivity analysis on the worst/reference/best Cases. According to the results obtained, interconnection of Lesbos Island with the mainland grid (S2) presents considerable economic interest in comparison to autonomous development (S1) with WE having a prominent role to this effect.

Keywords: electricity generation cost, levelized cost of energy, mainland, wind energy surplus

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Authors: Sean Goltz, Michael Mayo

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The purpose of this research is to use Global-Regulation.com database of the world laws, focusing on tax treaties between countries, in order to create an AI-driven tax simulator that will run an AI agent through potential tax scenarios across countries. The AI agent goal is to identify the scenario that will result in minimum tax liability based on tax treaties between countries. The results will be visualized by a three dimensional matrix. This will be an online web application. Multinational corporations are running their business through multiple countries. These countries, in turn, have a tax treaty with many other countries to regulate the payment of taxes on income that is transferred between these countries. As a result, planning the best tax scenario across multiple countries and numerous tax treaties is almost impossible. This research propose to use Global-Regulation.com database of word laws in English (machine translated by Google and Microsoft API’s) in order to create a simulator that will include the information in the tax treaties. Once ready, an AI agent will be sent through the simulator to identify the scenario that will result in minimum tax liability. Identifying the best tax scenario across countries may save multinational corporations, like Google, billions of dollars annually. Given the nature of the raw data and the domain of taxes (i.e., numbers), this is a promising ground to employ artificial intelligence towards a practical and beneficial purpose.

Keywords: taxation, law, multinational, corporation

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Authors: Elizabeta Eduard Baltadzhyan

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This work presents a stage of an investigation about the metaphorical conceptualization of translation in Bulgarian language. The material is a linguistic corpus consisting of 38 interviews with several generations Bulgarian translators and interpreters. The aim of this presentation is to inform about the results of the organization of the source concepts in scenarios that dominate the discursive manifestations of the source domains. The data show that, on the one hand, translators from different generations share some basic assignments of source and target domains, e. g. translation is a journey or translation is an artistic presentation. On the other hand, there are some specific scenarios motivated by significant changes in the socio-economic structure of the country and the valuation of the translator´s mission and work, e. g., the scenario of pleasure and addictive activity marks the generation that enjoy great support and stimulation from the socialist government, whereas the war scenario marks the generation during the Perestroika time.

Keywords: Bulgarian language, metaphor, scenario, translation

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Authors: Mustarakh Gelfi, Poonam Taneja, Tiedo Vellinga, Delon Hamonangan

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The initial masterplan of New Priok in the Port of Tanjung Priok was developed in 2012 is being updated to cater to new developments and new demands. In the new masterplan (2017), Phase II of development will start from 2035-onwards, depending on the future conditions. This study is about creating a robust masterplan for Phase II, which will remain functional under future uncertainties. The methodology applied in this study is scenario-based planning in the framework of Adaptive Port Planning (APP). Scenario-based planning helps to open up the perspective of the future as a horizon of possibilities. The scenarios are built around two major uncertainties in a 2x2 matrix approach. The two major uncertainties for New Priok port are economics and sustainability awareness. The outcome is four plausible scenarios: Green Port, Business As Usual, Moderate Expansion, and No Expansion. Terminal needs in each scenario are analyzed through traffic analysis and identifying the key cargos and commodities. In conclusion, this study gives the wide perspective for Port of Tanjung Priok for the planning Phase II of the development. The port has to realize that uncertainties persevere and are very likely to influence the decision making as to the future layouts. Instead of ignoring uncertainty, the port needs to make the action plans to deal with these uncertainties.

Keywords: Indonesia Port, port's layout, port planning, scenario-based planning

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Authors: Marina Charalambous, Phivos Phylactou, Thekla Elriz, Loukia Psychogios, Jean-Marie Annoni

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Background: Evidence-based practices for the evaluation and treatment of people with aphasia (PWA) in Greek are mainly impairment-based. Functional and multimodal communication is usually under assessed and neglected by clinicians. This study explores the adaptation and psychometric testing of the Greek (GR) version of The Scenario Test. The Scenario Test assesses the everyday functional communication of PWA in an interactive multimodal communication setting with the support of an active communication facilitator. Aims: To define the reliability and validity of The Scenario Test GR and discuss its clinical value. Methods & Procedures: The Scenario Test-GR was administered to 54 people with chronic stroke (6+ months post-stroke): 32 PWA and 22 people with stroke without aphasia. Participants were recruited from Greece and Cyprus. All measures were performed in an interview format. Standard psychometric criteria were applied to evaluate reliability (internal consistency, test-retest, and interrater reliability) and validity (construct and known – groups validity) of the Scenario Test GR. Video analysis was performed for the qualitative examination of the communication modes used. Outcomes & Results: The Scenario Test-GR shows high levels of reliability and validity. High scores of internal consistency (Cronbach’s α = .95), test-retest reliability (ICC = .99), and interrater reliability (ICC = .99) were found. Interrater agreement in scores on individual items fell between good and excellent levels of agreement. Correlations with a tool measuring language function in aphasia (the Aphasia Severity Rating Scale of the Boston Diagnostic Aphasia Examination), a measure of functional communication (the Communicative Effectiveness Index), and two instruments examining the psychosocial impact of aphasia (the Stroke and Aphasia Quality of Life questionnaire and the Aphasia Impact Questionnaire) revealed good convergent validity (all ps< .05). Results showed good known – groups validity (Mann-Whitney U = 96.5, p < .001), with significantly higher scores for participants without aphasia compared to those with aphasia. Conclusions: The psychometric qualities of The Scenario Test-GR support the reliability and validity of the tool for the assessment of functional communication for Greek-speaking PWA. The Scenario Test-GR can be used to assess multimodal functional communication, orient aphasia rehabilitation goal setting towards the activity and participation level, and be used as an outcome measure of everyday communication. Future studies will focus on the measurement of sensitivity to change in PWA with severe non-fluent aphasia.

Keywords: the scenario test GR, functional communication assessment, people with aphasia (PWA), tool validation

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Authors: Reina Kawase

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Japan set the goal of 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. To consider countermeasures for reducing GHG emission, the production estimation of energy intensive materials, such as steel, is essential. About 50% of steel production is exported in Japan, so it is necessary to consider steel production including export. Steel productions from 2005-2050 in Japan were estimated under various global assumptions based on combination of scenarios such as goods trade scenarios and steel making process selection scenarios. Process selection scenarios decide volume of steel production by process (basic oxygen furnace and electric arc furnace) with considering steel consumption projection, supply-demand balance of steel, and scrap surplus. The range of steel production by process was analyzed. Maximum steel production was estimated under the scenario which consumes scrap in domestic steel production at maximum level. In 2035, steel production reaches 149 million ton because of increase in electric arc furnace steel. However, it decreases towards 2050 and amounts to 120 million ton, which is almost same as a current level. Minimum steel production is under the scenario which assumes technology progress in steel making and supply-demand balance consideration in each region. Steel production decreases from base year and is 44 million ton in 2050.

Keywords: goods trade scenario, steel making process selection scenario, steel production, global warming

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Authors: Juliana C. Alencar, Monica Ferreira do Amaral Porto

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The blue-green infrastructure in recent years has been pointed out as a possibility to increase the environmental quality of watersheds. The regulation ecosystem services brought by these areas are many, such as the improvement of the air quality of the air, water, soil, microclimate, besides helping to control the peak flows and to promote the quality of life of the population. This study proposes a blue-green infrastructure scenario for the Jaguaré watershed, located in the western zone of the São Paulo city in Brazil. Based on the proposed scenario, it was verified the impact of the adoption of the blue and green infrastructure in the control of the peak flow of the basin, the benefits for the avifauna that are also reflected in the flora and finally, the quantification of the regulation ecosystem services brought by the adoption of the scenario proposed. A survey of existing green areas and potential areas for expansion and connection of these areas to form a network in the watershed was carried out. Based on this proposed new network of green areas, the peak flow for the proposed scenario was calculated with the help of software, ABC6. Finally, a survey of the ecosystem services contemplated in the proposed scenario was made. It was possible to conclude that the blue and green infrastructure would provide several regulation ecosystem services for the watershed, such as the control of the peak flow, the connection frame between the forest fragments that promoted the environmental enrichment of these fragments, improvement of the microclimate and the provision of leisure areas for the population.

Keywords: green and blue infrastructure, sustainable drainage, urban waters, ecosystem services

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Authors: Wen Huei Chou, Yi-Ting Chen

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Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) often struggle with social interactions and communication. It is challenging for them to understand social cues such as facial expressions, body language, and tone of voice in social settings, leading to social conflicts and misunderstandings. Over time, feelings of frustration and anxiety can make them reluctant to engage in social situations and worsen their communication barriers. This study focused on children with autism who also experience social anxiety. Through focus group interviews with parents of children with autism and occupational therapists, it explores the reasons and scenarios behind the development of social anxiety in these children. Social scenario stories and interactive applications tailored for children with autism were designed and developed. In addition, working with the educational robots, coping strategies for various emotional situations were elaborated on, and children were helped to understand their emotions.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, social anxiety, robot, social scenario story, interactive applications

Procedia PDF Downloads 56