Search results for: advanced composite laminates
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 4051

Search results for: advanced composite laminates

271 Preparation of Papers - Developing a Leukemia Diagnostic System Based on Hybrid Deep Learning Architectures in Actual Clinical Environments

Authors: Skyler Kim

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An early diagnosis of leukemia has always been a challenge to doctors and hematologists. On a worldwide basis, it was reported that there were approximately 350,000 new cases in 2012, and diagnosing leukemia was time-consuming and inefficient because of an endemic shortage of flow cytometry equipment in current clinical practice. As the number of medical diagnosis tools increased and a large volume of high-quality data was produced, there was an urgent need for more advanced data analysis methods. One of these methods was the AI approach. This approach has become a major trend in recent years, and several research groups have been working on developing these diagnostic models. However, designing and implementing a leukemia diagnostic system in real clinical environments based on a deep learning approach with larger sets remains complex. Leukemia is a major hematological malignancy that results in mortality and morbidity throughout different ages. We decided to select acute lymphocytic leukemia to develop our diagnostic system since acute lymphocytic leukemia is the most common type of leukemia, accounting for 74% of all children diagnosed with leukemia. The results from this development work can be applied to all other types of leukemia. To develop our model, the Kaggle dataset was used, which consists of 15135 total images, 8491 of these are images of abnormal cells, and 5398 images are normal. In this paper, we design and implement a leukemia diagnostic system in a real clinical environment based on deep learning approaches with larger sets. The proposed diagnostic system has the function of detecting and classifying leukemia. Different from other AI approaches, we explore hybrid architectures to improve the current performance. First, we developed two independent convolutional neural network models: VGG19 and ResNet50. Then, using both VGG19 and ResNet50, we developed a hybrid deep learning architecture employing transfer learning techniques to extract features from each input image. In our approach, fusing the features from specific abstraction layers can be deemed as auxiliary features and lead to further improvement of the classification accuracy. In this approach, features extracted from the lower levels are combined into higher dimension feature maps to help improve the discriminative capability of intermediate features and also overcome the problem of network gradient vanishing or exploding. By comparing VGG19 and ResNet50 and the proposed hybrid model, we concluded that the hybrid model had a significant advantage in accuracy. The detailed results of each model’s performance and their pros and cons will be presented in the conference.

Keywords: acute lymphoblastic leukemia, hybrid model, leukemia diagnostic system, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
270 Beyond Sexual Objectification: Moderation Analysis of Trauma and Overexcitability Dynamics in Women

Authors: Ritika Chaturvedi

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Introduction: Sexual objectification, characterized by the reduction of an individual to a mere object of sexual desire, remains a pervasive societal issue with profound repercussions on individual well-being. Such experiences, often rooted in systemic and cultural norms, have long-lasting implications for mental and emotional health. This study aims to explore the intricate relationship between experiences of sexual objectification and insidious trauma, further investigating the potential moderating effects of overexcitability as proposed by Dabrowski's theory of positive disintegration. Methodology: The research involved a comprehensive cohort of 204 women, spanning ages from 18 to 65 years. Participants were tasked with completing self-administered questionnaires designed to capture their experiences with sexual objectification. Additionally, the questionnaire assessed symptoms indicative of insidious trauma and explored overexcitability across five distinct domains: emotional, intellectual, psychomotor, sensory, and imaginational. Employing advanced statistical techniques, including multiple regression and moderation analysis, the study sought to decipher the intricate interplay among these variables. Findings: The study's results revealed a compelling positive correlation between experiences of sexual objectification and the onset of symptoms indicative of insidious trauma. This correlation underscores the profound and detrimental effects of sexual objectification on an individual's psychological well-being. Interestingly, the moderation analyses introduced a nuanced understanding, highlighting the differential roles of various overexcitability. Specifically, emotional, intellectual, and sensual overexcitability were found to exacerbate trauma symptomatology. In contrast, psychomotor overexcitability emerged as a protective factor, demonstrating a mitigating influence on the relationship between sexual objectification and trauma. Implications: The study's findings hold significant implications for a diverse array of stakeholders, encompassing mental health practitioners, educators, policymakers, and advocacy groups. The identified moderating effects of overexcitability emphasize the need for tailored interventions that consider individual differences in coping and resilience mechanisms. By recognizing the pivotal role of overexcitability in modulating the traumatic consequences of sexual objectification, this research advocates for the development of more nuanced and targeted support frameworks. Moreover, the study underscores the importance of continued research endeavors to unravel the intricate mechanisms and dynamics underpinning these relationships. Such endeavors are crucial for fostering the evolution of informed, evidence-based interventions and strategies aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of sexual objectification and promoting holistic well-being.

Keywords: sexual objectification, insidious trauma, emotional overexcitability, intellectual overexcitability, sensual overexcitability, psychomotor overexcitability, imaginational overexcitability

Procedia PDF Downloads 27
269 Debriefing Practices and Models: An Integrative Review

Authors: Judson P. LaGrone

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Simulation-based education in curricula was once a luxurious component of nursing programs but now serves as a vital element of an individual’s learning experience. A debriefing occurs after the simulation scenario or clinical experience is completed to allow the instructor(s) or trained professional(s) to act as a debriefer to guide a reflection with a purpose of acknowledging, assessing, and synthesizing the thought process, decision-making process, and actions/behaviors performed during the scenario or clinical experience. Debriefing is a vital component of the simulation process and educational experience to allow the learner(s) to progressively build upon past experiences and current scenarios within a safe and welcoming environment with a guided dialog to enhance future practice. The aim of this integrative review was to assess current practices of debriefing models in simulation-based education for health care professionals and students. The following databases were utilized for the search: CINAHL Plus, Cochrane Database of Systemic Reviews, EBSCO (ERIC), PsycINFO (Ovid), and Google Scholar. The advanced search option was useful to narrow down the search of articles (full text, Boolean operators, English language, peer-reviewed, published in the past five years). Key terms included debrief, debriefing, debriefing model, debriefing intervention, psychological debriefing, simulation, simulation-based education, simulation pedagogy, health care professional, nursing student, and learning process. Included studies focus on debriefing after clinical scenarios of nursing students, medical students, and interprofessional teams conducted between 2015 and 2020. Common themes were identified after the analysis of articles matching the search criteria. Several debriefing models are addressed in the literature with similarities of effectiveness for participants in clinical simulation-based pedagogy. Themes identified included (a) importance of debriefing in simulation-based pedagogy, (b) environment for which debriefing takes place is an important consideration, (c) individuals who should conduct the debrief, (d) length of debrief, and (e) methodology of the debrief. Debriefing models supported by theoretical frameworks and facilitated by trained staff are vital for a successful debriefing experience. Models differed from self-debriefing, facilitator-led debriefing, video-assisted debriefing, rapid cycle deliberate practice, and reflective debriefing. A reoccurring finding was centered around the emphasis of continued research for systematic tool development and analysis of the validity and effectiveness of current debriefing practices. There is a lack of consistency of debriefing models among nursing curriculum with an increasing rate of ill-prepared faculty to facilitate the debriefing phase of the simulation.

Keywords: debriefing model, debriefing intervention, health care professional, simulation-based education

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268 Immobilization of Superoxide Dismutase Enzyme on Layered Double Hydroxide Nanoparticles

Authors: Istvan Szilagyi, Marko Pavlovic, Paul Rouster

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Antioxidant enzymes are the most efficient defense systems against reactive oxygen species, which cause severe damage in living organisms and industrial products. However, their supplementation is problematic due to their high sensitivity to the environmental conditions. Immobilization on carrier nanoparticles is a promising research direction towards the improvement of their functional and colloidal stability. In that way, their applications in biomedical treatments and manufacturing processes in the food, textile and cosmetic industry can be extended. The main goal of the present research was to prepare and formulate antioxidant bionanocomposites composed of superoxide dismutase (SOD) enzyme, anionic clay (layered double hydroxide, LDH) nanoparticle and heparin (HEP) polyelectrolyte. To characterize the structure and the colloidal stability of the obtained compounds in suspension and solid state, electrophoresis, dynamic light scattering, transmission electron microscopy, spectrophotometry, thermogravimetry, X-ray diffraction, infrared and fluorescence spectroscopy were used as experimental techniques. LDH-SOD composite was synthesized by enzyme immobilization on the clay particles via electrostatic and hydrophobic interactions, which resulted in a strong adsorption of the SOD on the LDH surface, i.e., no enzyme leakage was observed once the material was suspended in aqueous solutions. However, the LDH-SOD showed only limited resistance against salt-induced aggregation and large irregularly shaped clusters formed during short term interval even at lower ionic strengths. Since sufficiently high colloidal stability is a key requirement in most of the applications mentioned above, the nanocomposite was coated with HEP polyelectrolyte to develop highly stable suspensions of primary LDH-SOD-HEP particles. HEP is a natural anticoagulant with one of the highest negative line charge density among the known macromolecules. The experimental results indicated that it strongly adsorbed on the oppositely charged LDH-SOD surface leading to charge inversion and to the formation of negatively charged LDH-SOD-HEP. The obtained hybrid materials formed stable suspension even under extreme conditions, where classical colloid chemistry theories predict rapid aggregation of the particles and unstable suspensions. Such a stabilization effect originated from electrostatic repulsion between the particles of the same sign of charge as well as from steric repulsion due to the osmotic pressure raised during the overlap of the polyelectrolyte chains adsorbed on the surface. In addition, the SOD enzyme kept its structural and functional integrity during the immobilization and coating processes and hence, the LDH-SOD-HEP bionanocomposite possessed excellent activity in decomposition of superoxide radical anions, as revealed in biochemical test reactions. In conclusion, due to the improved colloidal stability and the good efficiency in scavenging superoxide radical ions, the developed enzymatic system is a promising antioxidant candidate for biomedical or other manufacturing processes, wherever the aim is to decompose reactive oxygen species in suspensions.

Keywords: clay, enzyme, polyelectrolyte, formulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 242
267 Strategic Asset Allocation Optimization: Enhancing Portfolio Performance Through PCA-Driven Multi-Objective Modeling

Authors: Ghita Benayad

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Asset allocation, which affects the long-term profitability of portfolios by distributing assets to fulfill a range of investment objectives, is the cornerstone of investment management in the dynamic and complicated world of financial markets. This paper offers a technique for optimizing strategic asset allocation with the goal of improving portfolio performance by addressing the inherent complexity and uncertainty of the market through the use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in a multi-objective modeling framework. The study's first section starts with a critical evaluation of conventional asset allocation techniques, highlighting how poorly they are able to capture the intricate relationships between assets and the volatile nature of the market. In order to overcome these challenges, the project suggests a PCA-driven methodology that isolates important characteristics influencing asset returns by decreasing the dimensionality of the investment universe. This decrease provides a stronger basis for asset allocation decisions by facilitating a clearer understanding of market structures and behaviors. Using a multi-objective optimization model, the project builds on this foundation by taking into account a number of performance metrics at once, including risk minimization, return maximization, and the accomplishment of predetermined investment goals like regulatory compliance or sustainability standards. This model provides a more comprehensive understanding of investor preferences and portfolio performance in comparison to conventional single-objective optimization techniques. While applying the PCA-driven multi-objective optimization model to historical market data, aiming to construct portfolios better under different market situations. As compared to portfolios produced from conventional asset allocation methodologies, the results show that portfolios optimized using the proposed method display improved risk-adjusted returns, more resilience to market downturns, and better alignment with specified investment objectives. The study also looks at the implications of this PCA technique for portfolio management, including the prospect that it might give investors a more advanced framework for navigating financial markets. The findings suggest that by combining PCA with multi-objective optimization, investors may obtain a more strategic and informed asset allocation that is responsive to both market conditions and individual investment preferences. In conclusion, this capstone project improves the field of financial engineering by creating a sophisticated asset allocation optimization model that integrates PCA with multi-objective optimization. In addition to raising concerns about the condition of asset allocation today, the proposed method of portfolio management opens up new avenues for research and application in the area of investment techniques.

Keywords: asset allocation, portfolio optimization, principle component analysis, multi-objective modelling, financial market

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266 Recirculation Type Photocatalytic Reactor for Degradation of Monocrotophos Using TiO₂ and W-TiO₂ Coated Immobilized Clay Beads

Authors: Abhishek Sraw, Amit Sobti, Yamini Pandey, R. K. Wanchoo, Amrit Pal Toor

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Monocrotophos (MCP) is a widely used pesticide in India, which belong to an extremely toxic organophosphorus family, is persistent in nature and its toxicity is widely reported in all environmental segments in the country. Advanced Oxidation Process (AOP) is a promising solution to the problem of water pollution. TiO₂ is being widely used as a photocatalyst because of its many advantages, but it has a large band gap, due to which it is modified using metal and nonmetal dopant to make it active under sunlight and visible light. The use of nanosized powdered catalysts makes the recovery process extremely complicated. Hence the aim is to use low cost, easily available, eco-friendly clay material in form of bead as the support for the immobilization of catalyst, to solve the problem of post-separation of suspended catalyst from treated water. A recirculation type photocatalytic reactor (RTPR), using ultraviolet light emitting source (blue black lamp) was designed which work effectively for both suspended catalysts and catalyst coated clay beads. The bare, TiO₂ and W-TiO₂ coated clay beads were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), electron dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) and N₂ adsorption–desorption measurements techniques (BET) for their structural, textural and electronic properties. The study involved variation of different parameters like light conditions, recirculation rate, light intensity and initial MCP concentration under UV and sunlight for the degradation of MCP. The degradation and mineralization studies of the insecticide solution were performed using UV-Visible spectrophotometer, and COD vario-photometer and GC-MS analysis respectively. The main focus of the work lies in checking the recyclability of the immobilized TiO₂ over clay beads in the developed RTPR up to 30 continuous cycles without reactivation of catalyst. The results demonstrated the economic feasibility of the utilization of developed RTPR for the efficient purification of pesticide polluted water. The prepared TiO₂ clay beads delivered 75.78% degradation of MCP under UV light with negligible catalyst loss. Application of W-TiO₂ coated clay beads filled RTPR for the degradation of MCP under sunlight, however, shows 32% higher degradation of MCP than the same system based on undoped TiO₂. The COD measurements of TiO₂ coated beads led to 73.75% COD reduction while W-TiO₂ resulted in 87.89% COD reduction. The GC-MS analysis confirms the efficient breakdown of complex MCP molecules into simpler hydrocarbons. This supports the promising application of clay beads as a support for the photocatalyst and proves its eco-friendly nature, excellent recyclability, catalyst holding capacity, and economic viability.

Keywords: immobilized clay beads, monocrotophos, recirculation type photocatalytic reactor, TiO₂

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265 The Association of Vitamin B12 with Body Weight-and Fat-Based Indices in Childhood Obesity

Authors: Mustafa Metin Donma, Orkide Donma

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Vitamin deficiencies are common in obese individuals. Particularly, the status of vitamin B12 and its association with vitamin B9 (folate) and vitamin D is under investigation in recent time. Vitamin B12 is closely related to many vital processes in the body. In clinical studies, its involvement in fat metabolism draws attention from the obesity point of view. Obesity, in its advanced stages and in combination with metabolic syndrome (MetS) findings, may be a life-threatening health problem. Pediatric obesity is particularly important because it may be a predictor of severe chronic diseases during the adulthood period of the child. Due to its role in fat metabolism, vitamin B12 deficiency may disrupt metabolic pathways of the lipid and energy metabolisms in the body. The association of low B12 levels with obesity degree may be an interesting topic to be investigated. Obesity indices may be helpful at this point. Weight- and fat-based indices are available. Of them, body mass index (BMI) is in the first group. Fat mass index (FMI), fat-free mass index (FFMI) and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment-II (D2I) index lie in the latter group. The aim of this study is to clarify possible associations between vitamin B12 status and obesity indices in the pediatric population. The study comprises a total of one hundred and twenty-two children. Thirty-two children were included in the normal body mass index (N-BMI) group. Forty-six and forty-four children constitute groups with morbid obese children without MetS and with MetS, respectively. Informed consent forms and the approval of the institutional ethics committee were obtained. Tables prepared for obesity classification by World Health Organization were used. Metabolic syndrome criteria were defined. Anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were taken. Body mass index, FMI, FFMI, D2I were calculated. Routine laboratory tests were performed. Vitamin B9, B12, D concentrations were determined. Statistical evaluation of the study data was performed. Vitamin B9 and vitamin D levels were reduced in MetS group compared to children with N-BMI (p>0.05). Significantly lower values were observed in vitamin B12 concentrations of MetS group (p<0.01). Upon evaluation of blood pressure as well as triglyceride levels, there exist significant increases in morbid obese children. Significantly decreased concentrations of high density lipoprotein cholesterol were observed. All of the obesity indices and insulin resistance index exhibit increasing tendency with the severity of obesity. Inverse correlations were calculated between vitamin D and insulin resistance index as well as vitamin B12 and D2I in morbid obese groups. In conclusion, a fat-based index, D2I, was the most prominent body index, which shows a strong correlation with vitamin B12 concentrations in the late stage of obesity in children. A negative correlation between these two parameters was a confirmative finding related to the association between vitamin B12 and obesity degree.

Keywords: body mass index, children, D2I index, fat mass index, obesity

Procedia PDF Downloads 176
264 Topology Optimization Design of Transmission Structure in Flapping-Wing Micro Aerial Vehicle via 3D Printing

Authors: Zuyong Chen, Jianghao Wu, Yanlai Zhang

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Flapping-wing micro aerial vehicle (FMAV) is a new type of aircraft by mimicking the flying behavior to that of small birds or insects. Comparing to the traditional fixed wing or rotor-type aircraft, FMAV only needs to control the motion of flapping wings, by changing the size and direction of lift to control the flight attitude. Therefore, its transmission system should be designed very compact. Lightweight design can effectively extend its endurance time, while engineering experience alone is difficult to simultaneously meet the requirements of FMAV for structural strength and quality. Current researches still lack the guidance of considering nonlinear factors of 3D printing material when carrying out topology optimization, especially for the tiny FMAV transmission system. The coupling of non-linear material properties and non-linear contact behaviors of FMAV transmission system is a great challenge to the reliability of the topology optimization result. In this paper, topology optimization design based on FEA solver package Altair Optistruct for the transmission system of FMAV manufactured by 3D Printing was carried out. Firstly, the isotropic constitutive behavior of the Ultraviolet (UV) Cureable Resin used to fabricate the structure of FMAV was evaluated and confirmed through tensile test. Secondly, a numerical computation model describing the mechanical behavior of FMAV transmission structure was established and verified by experiments. Then topology optimization modeling method considering non-linear factors were presented, and optimization results were verified by dynamic simulation and experiments. Finally, detail discussions of different load status and constraints were carried out to explore the leading factors affecting the optimization results. The contributions drawn from this article helpful for guiding the lightweight design of FMAV are summarizing as follow; first, a dynamic simulation modeling method used to obtain the load status is presented. Second, verification method of optimized results considering non-linear factors is introduced. Third, based on or can achieve a better weight reduction effect and improve the computational efficiency rather than taking multi-states into account. Fourth, basing on makes for improving the ability to resist bending deformation. Fifth, constraint of displacement helps to improve the structural stiffness of optimized result. Results and engineering guidance in this paper may shed lights on the structural optimization and light-weight design for future advanced FMAV.

Keywords: flapping-wing micro aerial vehicle, 3d printing, topology optimization, finite element analysis, experiment

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263 Challenges of Blockchain Applications in the Supply Chain Industry: A Regulatory Perspective

Authors: Pardis Moslemzadeh Tehrani

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Due to the emergence of blockchain technology and the benefits of cryptocurrencies, intelligent or smart contracts are gaining traction. Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming our lives, and it is being embraced by a wide range of sectors. Smart contracts, which are at the heart of blockchains, incorporate AI characteristics. Such contracts are referred to as "smart" contracts because of the underlying technology that allows contracting parties to agree on terms expressed in computer code that defines machine-readable instructions for computers to follow under specific situations. The transmission happens automatically if the conditions are met. Initially utilised for financial transactions, blockchain applications have since expanded to include the financial, insurance, and medical sectors, as well as supply networks. Raw material acquisition by suppliers, design, and fabrication by manufacturers, delivery of final products to consumers, and even post-sales logistics assistance are all part of supply chains. Many issues are linked with managing supply chains from the planning and coordination stages, which can be implemented in a smart contract in a blockchain due to their complexity. Manufacturing delays and limited third-party amounts of product components have raised concerns about the integrity and accountability of supply chains for food and pharmaceutical items. Other concerns include regulatory compliance in multiple jurisdictions and transportation circumstances (for instance, many products must be kept in temperature-controlled environments to ensure their effectiveness). Products are handled by several providers before reaching customers in modern economic systems. Information is sent between suppliers, shippers, distributors, and retailers at every stage of the production and distribution process. Information travels more effectively when individuals are eliminated from the equation. The usage of blockchain technology could be a viable solution to these coordination issues. In blockchains, smart contracts allow for the rapid transmission of production data, logistical data, inventory levels, and sales data. This research investigates the legal and technical advantages and disadvantages of AI-blockchain technology in the supply chain business. It aims to uncover the applicable legal problems and barriers to the use of AI-blockchain technology to supply chains, particularly in the food industry. It also discusses the essential legal and technological issues and impediments to supply chain implementation for stakeholders, as well as methods for overcoming them before releasing the technology to clients. Because there has been little research done on this topic, it is difficult for industrial stakeholders to grasp how blockchain technology could be used in their respective operations. As a result, the focus of this research will be on building advanced and complex contractual terms in supply chain smart contracts on blockchains to cover all unforeseen supply chain challenges.

Keywords: blockchain, supply chain, IoT, smart contract

Procedia PDF Downloads 95
262 Case Study Analysis of 2017 European Railway Traffic Management Incident: The Application of System for Investigation of Railway Interfaces Methodology

Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety-critical incident to raise awareness of biases in the systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors, and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the methodology used to model and analyze the safety-critical incident. The SIRI methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the management oversight and risk tree technique. The benefits of the systems for investigation of railway interfaces methodology (SIRI) are threefold: first is that it incorporates the “Heuristics and Biases” approach advanced by 2002 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, Prof Daniel Kahneman, in the management oversight and risk tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of the role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling techniques. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organizational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signaling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons are learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner's and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision-making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 systems engineering standard and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and artificial intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 166
261 Cost Efficient Receiver Tube Technology for Eco-Friendly Concentrated Solar Thermal Applications

Authors: M. Shiva Prasad, S. R. Atchuta, T. Vijayaraghavan, S. Sakthivel

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The world is in need of efficient energy conversion technologies which are affordable, accessible, and sustainable with eco-friendly nature. Solar energy is one of the cornerstones for the world’s economic growth because of its abundancy with zero carbon pollution. Among the various solar energy conversion technologies, solar thermal technology has attracted a substantial renewed interest due to its diversity and compatibility in various applications. Solar thermal systems employ concentrators, tracking systems and heat engines for electricity generation which lead to high cost and complexity in comparison with photovoltaics; however, it is compatible with distinct thermal energy storage capability and dispatchable electricity which creates a tremendous attraction. Apart from that, employing cost-effective solar selective receiver tube in a concentrating solar thermal (CST) system improves the energy conversion efficiency and directly reduces the cost of technology. In addition, the development of solar receiver tubes by low cost methods which can offer high optical properties and corrosion resistance in an open-air atmosphere would be beneficial for low and medium temperature applications. In this regard, our work opens up an approach which has the potential to achieve cost-effective energy conversion. We have developed a highly selective tandem absorber coating through a facile wet chemical route by a combination of chemical oxidation, sol-gel, and nanoparticle coating methods. The developed tandem absorber coating has gradient refractive index nature on stainless steel (SS 304) and exhibited high optical properties (α ≤ 0.95 & ε ≤ 0.14). The first absorber layer (Cr-Mn-Fe oxides) developed by controlled oxidation of SS 304 in a chemical bath reactor. A second composite layer of ZrO2-SiO2 has been applied on the chemically oxidized substrate by So-gel dip coating method to serve as optical enhancing and corrosion resistant layer. Finally, an antireflective layer (MgF2) has been deposited on the second layer, to achieve > 95% of absorption. The developed tandem layer exhibited good thermal stability up to 250 °C in open air atmospheric condition and superior corrosion resistance (withstands for > 200h in salt spray test (ASTM B117)). After the successful development of a coating with targeted properties at a laboratory scale, a prototype of the 1 m tube has been demonstrated with excellent uniformity and reproducibility. Moreover, it has been validated under standard laboratory test condition as well as in field condition with a comparison of the commercial receiver tube. The presented strategy can be widely adapted to develop highly selective coatings for a variety of CST applications ranging from hot water, solar desalination, and industrial process heat and power generation. The high-performance, cost-effective medium temperature receiver tube technology has attracted many industries, and recently the technology has been transferred to Indian industry.

Keywords: concentrated solar thermal system, solar selective coating, tandem absorber, ultralow refractive index

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260 A New Perspective in Cervical Dystonia: Neurocognitive Impairment

Authors: Yesim Sucullu Karadag, Pinar Kurt, Sule Bilen, Nese Subutay Oztekin, Fikri Ak

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Background: Primary cervical dystonia is thought to be a purely motor disorder. But recent studies revealed that patients with dystonia had additional non-motor features. Sensory and psychiatric disturbances could be included into the non-motor spectrum of dystonia. The Basal Ganglia receive inputs from all cortical areas and throughout the thalamus project to several cortical areas, thus participating to circuits that have been linked to motor as well as sensory, emotional and cognitive functions. However, there are limited studies indicating cognitive impairment in patients with cervical dystonia. More evidence is required regarding neurocognitive functioning in these patients. Objective: This study is aimed to investigate neurocognitive profile of cervical dystonia patients in comparison to healthy controls (HC) by employing a detailed set of neuropsychological tests in addition to self-reported instruments. Methods: Totally 29 (M/F: 7/22) cervical dystonia patients and 30 HC (M/F: 10/20) were included into the study. Exclusion criteria were depression and not given informed consent. Standard demographic, educational data and clinical reports (disease duration, disability index) were recorded for all patients. After a careful neurological evaluation, all subjects were given a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological tests: Self report of neuropsychological condition (by visual analogue scale-VAS, 0-100), RAVLT, STROOP, PASAT, TMT, SDMT, JLOT, DST, COWAT, ACTT, and FST. Patients and HC were compared regarding demographic, clinical features and neurocognitive tests. Also correlation between disease duration, disability index and self report -VAS were assessed. Results: There was no difference between patients and HCs regarding socio-demographic variables such as age, gender and years of education (p levels were 0.36, 0.436, 0.869; respectively). All of the patients were assessed at the peak of botulinum toxine effect and they were not taking an anticholinergic agent or benzodiazepine. Dystonia patients had significantly impaired verbal learning and memory (RAVLT, p<0.001), divided attention and working memory (ACTT, p<0.001), attention speed (TMT-A and B, p=0.008, 0.050), executive functions (PASAT, p<0.001; SDMT, p= 0.001; FST, p<0.001), verbal attention (DST, p=0.001), verbal fluency (COWAT, p<0.001), visio-spatial processing (JLOT, p<0.001) in comparison to healthy controls. But focused attention (STROOP-spontaneous correction) was not different between two groups (p>0.05). No relationship was found regarding disease duration and disability index with any neurocognitive tests. Conclusions: Our study showed that neurocognitive functions of dystonia patients were worse than control group with the similar age, sex, and education independently clinical expression like disease duration and disability index. This situation may be the result of possible cortical and subcortical changes in dystonia patients. Advanced neuroimaging techniques might be helpful to explain these changes in cervical dystonia patients.

Keywords: cervical dystonia, neurocognitive impairment, neuropsychological test, dystonia disability index

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259 Evaluation of Alternative Approaches for Additional Damping in Dynamic Calculations of Railway Bridges under High-Speed Traffic

Authors: Lara Bettinelli, Bernhard Glatz, Josef Fink

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Planning engineers and researchers use various calculation models with different levels of complexity, calculation efficiency and accuracy in dynamic calculations of railway bridges under high-speed traffic. When choosing a vehicle model to depict the dynamic loading on the bridge structure caused by passing high-speed trains, different goals are pursued: On the one hand, the selected vehicle models should allow the calculation of a bridge’s vibrations as realistic as possible. On the other hand, the computational efficiency and manageability of the models should be preferably high to enable a wide range of applications. The commonly adopted and straightforward vehicle model is the moving load model (MLM), which simplifies the train to a sequence of static axle loads moving at a constant speed over the structure. However, the MLM can significantly overestimate the structure vibrations, especially when resonance events occur. More complex vehicle models, which depict the train as a system of oscillating and coupled masses, can reproduce the interaction dynamics between the vehicle and the bridge superstructure to some extent and enable the calculation of more realistic bridge accelerations. At the same time, such multi-body models require significantly greater processing capacities and precise knowledge of various vehicle properties. The European standards allow for applying the so-called additional damping method when simple load models, such as the MLM, are used in dynamic calculations. An additional damping factor depending on the bridge span, which should take into account the vibration-reducing benefits of the vehicle-bridge interaction, is assigned to the supporting structure in the calculations. However, numerous studies show that when the current standard specifications are applied, the calculation results for the bridge accelerations are in many cases still too high compared to the measured bridge accelerations, while in other cases, they are not on the safe side. A proposal to calculate the additional damping based on extensive dynamic calculations for a parametric field of simply supported bridges with a ballasted track was developed to address this issue. In this contribution, several different approaches to determine the additional damping of the supporting structure considering the vehicle-bridge interaction when using the MLM are compared with one another. Besides the standard specifications, this includes the approach mentioned above and two additional recently published alternative formulations derived from analytical approaches. For a bridge catalogue of 65 existing bridges in Austria in steel, concrete or composite construction, calculations are carried out with the MLM for two different high-speed trains and the different approaches for additional damping. The results are compared with the calculation results obtained by applying a more sophisticated multi-body model of the trains used. The evaluation and comparison of the results allow assessing the benefits of different calculation concepts for the additional damping regarding their accuracy and possible applications. The evaluation shows that by applying one of the recently published redesigned additional damping methods, the calculation results can reflect the influence of the vehicle-bridge interaction on the design-relevant structural accelerations considerably more reliable than by using normative specifications.

Keywords: Additional Damping Method, Bridge Dynamics, High-Speed Railway Traffic, Vehicle-Bridge-Interaction

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258 Solid Waste and Its Impact on the Human Health

Authors: Waseem Akram, Hafiz Azhar Ali Khan

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Unplanned urbanization together with change in life from simple to more technologically advanced style with flow of rural masses to urban areas has played a vital role in pilling loads of solid wastes in our environment. The cities and towns have expanded beyond boundaries. Even the uncontrolled population expansion has caused the overall environmental burden. Thus, today the indifference remains as one of the biggest trash that has come up due to the non-responsive behavior of the people. Everyday huge amount of solid waste is thrown in the streets, on the roads, parks, and in all those places that are frequently and often visited by the human beings. This behavior based response in many countries of the world has led to serious health concerns and environmental issues. Over 80% of our products that are sold in the market are packed in plastic bags. None of the bags are later recycled but simply become a permanent environment concern that flies, choke lines or are burnt and release toxic gases in the environment or form dumps of heaps. Lack of classification of the daily waste generated from houses and other places lead to worst clogging of the sewerage lines and formation of ponding areas which ultimately favor vector borne disease and sometimes become a cause of transmission of polio virus. Solid waste heaps were checked at different places of the cities. All of the wastes on visual assessments were classified into plastic bags, papers, broken plastic pots, clay pots, steel boxes, wrappers etc. All solid waste dumping sites in the cities and wastes that were thrown outside of the trash containers usually contained wrappers, plastic bags, and unconsumed food products. Insect populations seen in these sites included the house flies, bugs, cockroaches and mosquito larvae breeding in water filled wrappers, containers or plastic bags. The population of the mosquitoes, cockroaches and houseflies were relatively very high in dumping sites close to human population. This population has been associated with cases like dengue, malaria, dysentery, gastro and also to skin allergies during the monsoon and summer season. Thus, dumping of the huge amount of solid wastes in and near the residential areas results into serious environmental concerns, bad smell circulation, and health related issues. In some places, the same waste is burnt to get rid of mosquitoes through smoke which ultimately releases toxic material in the atmosphere. Therefore, a proper environmental strategy is needed to minimize environmental burden and promote concepts of recycled products and thus, reduce the disease burden.

Keywords: solid waste accumulation, disease burden, mosquitoes, vector borne diseases

Procedia PDF Downloads 253
257 Impact of National Institutions on Corporate Social Performance

Authors: Debdatta Mukherjee, Abhiman Das, Amit Garg

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In recent years, there is a growing interest about corporate social responsibility of firms in both academic literature and business world. Since business forms a part of society incorporating socio-environment concerns into its value chain, activities are vital for ensuring mutual sustainability and prosperity. But, until now most of the works have been either descriptive or normative rather than positivist in tone. Even the few ones with a positivist approach have mostly studied the link between corporate financial performance and corporate social performance. However, these studies have been severely criticized by many eminent authors on grounds that they lack a theoretical basis for their findings. They have also argued that apart from corporate financial performance, there must be certain other crucial influences that are likely to determine corporate social performance of firms. In fact, several studies have indicated that firms operating in distinct national institutions show significant variations in the corporate social responsibility practices that they undertake. This clearly suggests that the institutional context of a country in which the firms operate is a key determinant of corporate social performance of firms. Therefore, this paper uses an institutional framework to understand why corporate social performance of firms vary across countries. It examines the impact of country level institutions on corporate social performance using a sample of 3240 global publicly-held firms across 33 countries covering the period 2010-2015. The country level institutions include public institutions, private institutions, markets and capacity to innovate. Econometric Analysis has been mainly used to assess this impact. A three way panel data analysis using fixed effects has been used to test and validate appropriate hypotheses. Most of the empirical findings confirm our hypotheses and the economic significance indicates the specific impact of each variable and their importance relative to others. The results suggest that institutional determinants like ethical behavior of private institutions, goods market, labor market and innovation capacity of a country are significantly related to the corporate social performance of firms. Based on our findings, few implications for policy makers from across the world have also been suggested. The institutions in a country should promote competition. The government should use policy levers for upgrading home demands, like setting challenging yet flexible safety, quality and environment standards, and framing policies governing buyer information, providing innovative recourses to low quality goods and services and promoting early adoption of new and technologically advanced products. Moreover, the institution building in a country should be such that they facilitate and improve the capacity of firms to innovate. Therefore, the proposed study argues that country level institutions impact corporate social performance of firms, empirically validates the same, suggest policy implications and attempts to contribute to an extended understanding of corporate social responsibility and corporate social performance in a multinational context.

Keywords: corporate social performance, corporate social responsibility, institutions, markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
256 Problem Solving in Mathematics Education: A Case Study of Nigerian Secondary School Mathematics Teachers’ Conceptions in Relation to Classroom Instruction

Authors: Carol Okigbo

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Mathematical problem solving has long been accorded an important place in mathematics curricula at every education level in both advanced and emerging economies. Its classroom approaches have varied, such as teaching for problem-solving, teaching about problem-solving, and teaching mathematics through problem-solving. It requires engaging in tasks for which the solution methods are not eminent, making sense of problems and persevering in solving them by exhibiting processes, strategies, appropriate attitude, and adequate exposure. Teachers play important roles in helping students acquire competency in problem-solving; thus, they are expected to be good problem-solvers and have proper conceptions of problem-solving. Studies show that teachers’ conceptions influence their decisions about what to teach and how to teach. Therefore, how teachers view their roles in teaching problem-solving will depend on their pedagogical conceptions of problem-solving. If teaching problem-solving is a major component of secondary school mathematics instruction, as recommended by researchers and mathematics educators, then it is necessary to establish teachers’ conceptions, what they do, and how they approach problem-solving. This study is designed to determine secondary school teachers’ conceptions regarding mathematical problem solving, its current situation, how teachers’ conceptions relate to their demographics, as well as the interaction patterns in the mathematics classroom. There have been many studies of mathematics problem solving, some of which addressed teachers’ conceptions using single-method approaches, thereby presenting only limited views of this important phenomenon. To address the problem more holistically, this study adopted an integrated mixed methods approach which involved a quantitative survey, qualitative analysis of open-ended responses, and ethnographic observations of teachers in class. Data for the analysis came from a random sample of 327 secondary school mathematics teachers in two Nigerian states - Anambra State and Enugu State who completed a 45-item questionnaire. Ten of the items elicited demographic information, 11 items were open-ended questions, and 25 items were Likert-type questions. Of the 327 teachers who responded to the questionnaires, 37 were randomly selected and observed in their classes. Data analysis using ANOVA, t-tests, chi-square tests, and open coding showed that the teachers had different conceptions about problem-solving, which fall into three main themes: practice on exercises and word application problems, a process of solving mathematical problems, and a way of teaching mathematics. Teachers reported that no period is set aside for problem-solving; typically, teachers solve problems on the board, teach problem-solving strategies, and allow students time to struggle with problems on their own. The result shows a significant difference between male and female teachers’ conception of problems solving, a significant relationship among teachers’ conceptions and academic qualifications, and teachers who have spent ten years or more teaching mathematics were significantly different from the group with seven to nine years of experience in terms of their conceptions of problem-solving.

Keywords: conceptions, education, mathematics, problem solving, teacher

Procedia PDF Downloads 44
255 Fiberoptic Intubation Skills Training Improves Emergency Medicine Resident Comfort Using Modality

Authors: Nicholus M. Warstadt, Andres D. Mallipudi, Oluwadamilola Idowu, Joshua Rodriguez, Madison M. Hunt, Soma Pathak, Laura P. Weber

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Endotracheal intubation is a core procedure performed by emergency physicians. This procedure is a high risk, and failure results in substantial morbidity and mortality. Fiberoptic intubation (FOI) is the standard of care in difficult airway protocols, yet no widespread practice exists for training emergency medicine (EM) residents in the technical acquisition of FOI skills. Simulation on mannequins is commonly utilized to teach advanced airway techniques. As part of a program to introduce FOI into our ED, residents received hands-on training in FOI as part of our weekly resident education conference. We hypothesized that prior to the hands-on training, residents had little experience with FOI and were uncomfortable with using fiberoptic as a modality. We further hypothesized that resident comfort with FOI would increase following the training. The education intervention consisted of two hours of focused airway teaching and skills acquisition for PGY 1-4 residents. One hour was dedicated to four case-based learning stations focusing on standard, pediatric, facial trauma, and burn airways. Direct, video, and fiberoptic airway equipment were available to use at the residents’ discretion to intubate mannequins at each station. The second hour involved direct instructor supervision and immediate feedback during deliberate practice for FOI of a mannequin. Prior to the hands-on training, a pre-survey was sent via email to all EM residents at NYU Grossman School of Medicine. The pre-survey asked how many FOI residents have performed in the ED, OR, and on a mannequin. The pre-survey and a post-survey asked residents to rate their comfort with FOI on a 5-point Likert scale ("extremely uncomfortable", "somewhat uncomfortable", "neither comfortable nor uncomfortable", "somewhat comfortable", and "extremely comfortable"). The post-survey was administered on site immediately following the training. A two-sample chi-square test of independence was calculated comparing self-reported resident comfort on the pre- and post-survey (α ≤ 0.05). Thirty-six of a total of 70 residents (51.4%) completed the pre-survey. Of pre-survey respondents, 34 residents (94.4%) had performed 0, 1 resident (2.8%) had performed 1, and 1 resident (2.8%) had performed 2 FOI in the ED. Twenty-five residents (69.4%) had performed 0, 6 residents (16.7%) had performed 1, 2 residents (5.6%) had performed 2, 1 resident (2.8%) had performed 3, and 2 residents (5.6%) had performed 4 FOI in the OR. Seven residents (19.4%) had performed 0, and 16 residents (44.4%) had performed 5 or greater FOI on a mannequin. 29 residents (41.4%) attended the hands-on training, and 27 out of 29 residents (93.1%) completed the post-survey. Self-reported resident comfort with FOI significantly increased in post-survey compared to pre-survey questionnaire responses (p = 0.00034). Twenty-one of 27 residents (77.8%) report being “somewhat comfortable” or “extremely comfortable” with FOI on the post-survey, compared to 9 of 35 residents (25.8%) on the pre-survey. We show that dedicated FOI training is associated with increased learner comfort with such techniques. Further direction includes studying technical competency, skill retention, translation to direct patient care, and optimal frequency and methodology of future FOI education.

Keywords: airway, emergency medicine, fiberoptic intubation, medical simulation, skill acquisition

Procedia PDF Downloads 162
254 Electrohydrodynamic Patterning for Surface Enhanced Raman Scattering for Point-of-Care Diagnostics

Authors: J. J. Rickard, A. Belli, P. Goldberg Oppenheimer

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Medical diagnostics, environmental monitoring, homeland security and forensics increasingly demand specific and field-deployable analytical technologies for quick point-of-care diagnostics. Although technological advancements have made optical methods well-suited for miniaturization, a highly-sensitive detection technique for minute sample volumes is required. Raman spectroscopy is a well-known analytical tool, but has very weak signals and hence is unsuitable for trace level analysis. Enhancement via localized optical fields (surface plasmons resonances) on nanoscale metallic materials generates huge signals in surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS), enabling single molecule detection. This enhancement can be tuned by manipulation of the surface roughness and architecture at the sub-micron level. Nevertheless, the development and application of SERS has been inhibited by the irreproducibility and complexity of fabrication routes. The ability to generate straightforward, cost-effective, multiplex-able and addressable SERS substrates with high enhancements is of profound interest for SERS-based sensing devices. While most SERS substrates are manufactured by conventional lithographic methods, the development of a cost-effective approach to create nanostructured surfaces is a much sought-after goal in the SERS community. Here, a method is established to create controlled, self-organized, hierarchical nanostructures using electrohydrodynamic (HEHD) instabilities. The created structures are readily fine-tuned, which is an important requirement for optimizing SERS to obtain the highest enhancements. HEHD pattern formation enables the fabrication of multiscale 3D structured arrays as SERS-active platforms. Importantly, each of the HEHD-patterned individual structural units yield a considerable SERS enhancement. This enables each single unit to function as an isolated sensor. Each of the formed structures can be effectively tuned and tailored to provide high SERS enhancement, while arising from different HEHD morphologies. The HEHD fabrication of sub-micrometer architectures is straightforward and robust, providing an elegant route for high-throughput biological and chemical sensing. The superior detection properties and the ability to fabricate SERS substrates on the miniaturized scale, will facilitate the development of advanced and novel opto-fluidic devices, such as portable detection systems, and will offer numerous applications in biomedical diagnostics, forensics, ecological warfare and homeland security.

Keywords: hierarchical electrohydrodynamic patterning, medical diagnostics, point-of care devices, SERS

Procedia PDF Downloads 319
253 Increasing System Adequacy Using Integration of Pumped Storage: Renewable Energy to Reduce Thermal Power Generations Towards RE100 Target, Thailand

Authors: Mathuravech Thanaphon, Thephasit Nat

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The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is focusing on expanding its pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capacity to increase the reliability of the system during peak demand and allow for greater integration of renewables. To achieve this requirement, Thailand will have to double its current renewable electricity production. To address the challenges of balancing supply and demand in the grid with increasing levels of RE penetration, as well as rising peak demand, EGAT has already been studying the potential for additional PSH capacity for several years to enable an increased share of RE and replace existing fossil fuel-fired generation. In addition, the role that pumped-storage hydropower would play in fulfilling multiple grid functions and renewable integration. The proposed sites for new PSH would help increase the reliability of power generation in Thailand. However, most of the electricity generation will come from RE, chiefly wind and photovoltaic, and significant additional Energy Storage capacity will be needed. In this paper, the impact of integrating the PSH system on the adequacy of renewable rich power generating systems to reduce the thermal power generating units is investigated. The variations of system adequacy indices are analyzed for different PSH-renewables capacities and storage levels. Power Development Plan 2018 rev.1 (PDP2018 rev.1), which is modified by integrating a six-new PSH system and RE planning and development aftermath in 2030, is the very challenge. The system adequacy indices through power generation are obtained using Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) Optimization. MOGA is a probabilistic heuristic and stochastic algorithm that is able to find the global minima, which have the advantage that the fitness function does not necessarily require the gradient. In this sense, the method is more flexible in solving reliability optimization problems for a composite power system. The optimization with hourly time step takes years of planning horizon much larger than the weekly horizon that usually sets the scheduling studies. The objective function is to be optimized to maximize RE energy generation, minimize energy imbalances, and minimize thermal power generation using MATLAB. The PDP2018 rev.1 was set to be simulated based on its planned capacity stepping into 2030 and 2050. Therefore, the four main scenario analyses are conducted as the target of renewables share: 1) Business-As-Usual (BAU), 2) National Targets (30% RE in 2030), 3) Carbon Neutrality Targets (50% RE in 2050), and 5) 100% RE or full-decarbonization. According to the results, the generating system adequacy is significantly affected by both PSH-RE and Thermal units. When a PSH is integrated, it can provide hourly capacity to the power system as well as better allocate renewable energy generation to reduce thermal generations and improve system reliability. These results show that a significant level of reliability improvement can be obtained by PSH, especially in renewable-rich power systems.

Keywords: pumped storage hydropower, renewable energy integration, system adequacy, power development planning, RE100, multi-objective genetic algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 32
252 Mechanism of Veneer Colouring for Production of Multilaminar Veneer from Plantation-Grown Eucalyptus Globulus

Authors: Ngoc Nguyen

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There is large plantation of Eucalyptus globulus established which has been grown to produce pulpwood. This resource is not suitable for the production of decorative products, principally due to low grades of wood and “dull” appearance but many trials have been already undertaken for the production of veneer and veneer-based engineered wood products, such as plywood and laminated veneer lumber (LVL). The manufacture of veneer-based products has been recently identified as an unprecedented opportunity to promote higher value utilisation of plantation resources. However, many uncertainties remain regarding the impacts of inferior wood quality of young plantation trees on product recovery and value, and with respect to optimal processing techniques. Moreover, the quality of veneer and veneer-based products is far from optimal as trees are young and have small diameters; and the veneers have the significant colour variation which affects to the added value of final products. Developing production methods which would enhance appearance of low-quality veneer would provide a great potential for the production of high-value wood products such as furniture, joinery, flooring and other appearance products. One of the methods of enhancing appearance of low quality veneer, developed in Italy, involves the production of multilaminar veneer, also named “reconstructed veneer”. An important stage of the multilaminar production is colouring the veneer which can be achieved by dyeing veneer with dyes of different colours depending on the type of appearance products, their design and market demand. Although veneer dyeing technology has been well advanced in Italy, it has been focused on poplar veneer from plantation which wood is characterized by low density, even colour, small amount of defects and high permeability. Conversely, the majority of plantation eucalypts have medium to high density, have a lot of defects, uneven colour and low permeability. Therefore, detailed study is required to develop dyeing methods suitable for colouring eucalypt veneers. Brown reactive dye is used for veneer colouring process. Veneers from sapwood and heartwood of two moisture content levels are used to conduct colouring experiments: green veneer and veneer dried to 12% MC. Prior to dyeing, all samples are treated. Both soaking (dipping) and vacuum pressure methods are used in the study to compare the results and select most efficient method for veneer dyeing. To date, the results of colour measurements by CIELAB colour system showed significant differences in the colour of the undyed veneers produced from heartwood part. The colour became moderately darker with increasing of Sodium chloride, compared to control samples according to the colour measurements. It is difficult to conclude a suitable dye solution used in the experiments at this stage as the variables such as dye concentration, dyeing temperature or dyeing time have not been done. The dye will be used with and without UV absorbent after all trials are completed using optimal parameters in colouring veneers.

Keywords: Eucalyptus globulus, veneer colouring/dyeing, multilaminar veneer, reactive dye

Procedia PDF Downloads 318
251 Follicular Thyroid Carcinoma in a Developing Country: A Retrospective Study of 10 Years

Authors: Abdul Aziz, Muhammad Qamar Masood, Saadia Sattar, Saira Fatima, Najmul Islam

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Introduction: The most common endocrine tumor is thyroid cancer. Follicular Thyroid Carcinoma (FTC) accounts for 5%–10% of all thyroid cancers. Patients with FTC frequently present with more advanced stage diseases and a higher occurrence of distant metastases because of the propensity of vascular invasion. FTC is mainly treated with surgery, while radioactive iodine therapy is the main adjuvant therapy as per ATA guidelines. In many developing countries, surgical facilities and radioactive iodine are in short supply; therefore, understanding follicular thyroid cancer trends may help developing countries plan and use resources more effectively. Methodology: It was a retrospective observational study of FTC patients of age 18 years and above conducted at Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2019. Results: There were 404 patients with thyroid carcinoma, out of which forty (10.1%) were FTC. 50% of the patients were in the 41-60 years age group, and the female to male ratio was 1.5: 1. Twenty-four patients (60%) presented with complain of neck swelling followed by metastasis (20%) and compressive symptoms (20%). The most common site of metastasis was bone (87.5%), followed by lung (12.5%). The pre-operative thyroglobulin level was done in six out of eight metastatic patients (75%) in which it was elevated. This emphasizes the importance of checking thyroglobulin level in unusual presentation (bone pain, fractures) of a patient having neck swelling also to help in establishing the primary source of tumor. There was no complete documentation of ultrasound features of the thyroid gland in all the patients, which is an important investigation done in the initial evaluation of thyroid nodule. On FNAC, 50% (20 patients) had Bethesda category III-IV nodules, while 10% ( 4 patients ) had Bethesda category II. In sixteen patients, FNAC was not done as they presented with compressive symptoms or metastasis. Fifty percent had a total thyroidectomy and 50% had subtotal followed by completion thyroidectomy, plus ten patients had lymph node dissection, out of which seven had histopathological lymph node involvement. On histopathology, twenty-three patients (57.5%) had minimally invasive, while seventeen (42.5%) had widely invasive follicular thyroid carcinoma. The capsular invasion was present in thirty-three patients (82.5%); one patient had no capsular invasion, but there was a vascular invasion. Six patients' histopathology had no record of capsular invasion. In contrast, the lymphovascular invasion was present in twenty-six patients (65%). In this study, 65 % of the patients had clinical stage 1 disease, while 25% had stage 2 and 10% had clinical stage 4. Seventeen patients (42.5%) had received RAI 30-100 mCi, while ten patients (25%) received more than 100 mCi. Conclusion: FTC demographic and clinicopathological presentation are the same in Pakistan as compared to other countries. Surgery followed by RAI is the mainstay of treatment. Thus understanding the trend of FTC and proper planning and utilization of the resources will help the developing countries in effectively treating the FTC.

Keywords: thyroid carcinoma, follicular thyroid carcinoma, clinicopathological features, developing countries

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
250 Analyzing the Mission Drift of Social Business: Case Study of Restaurant Providing Professional Training to At-Risk Youth

Authors: G. Yanay-Ventura, H. Desivilya Syna, K. Michael

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Social businesses are based on the idea that an enterprise can be established for the sake of profit and, at the same time, with the aim of fulfilling social goals. Yet, the question of how these goals can be integrated in practice to derive parallel benefit in both realms still needs to be examined. Particularly notable in this context is the ‘governance challenge’ of social businesses, meaning the danger of the mission drifts from the social goal in the pursuit of good business. This study is based on an evaluation study of a social business that operates as a restaurant providing professional training to at-risk youth. The evaluation was based on the collection of a variety of data through interviews with stakeholders in the enterprise (directors and managers, business partners, social partners, and position holders in the restaurant and the social enterprise), a focus group consisting of the youth receiving the professional training, observations of the restaurant’s operation, and analysis of the social enterprise’s primary documents. The evaluation highlighted significant strengths of the social enterprise, including reaching relatively fast business sustainability, effective management of the restaurant, stable employment of the restaurant staff, and effective management of the social project. The social enterprise and business management have both enjoyed positive evaluations from a variety of stakeholders. Clearly, the restaurant was deemed by all a promising young business. However, the social project suffered from a 90% dropout rate among the youth entering its ranks, extreme monthly fluctuation in the number of youths participating, and a distinct minority of the youth who have succeeded in completing their training period. Possible explanations of the high dropout rate included the small number of cooks, which impeded the effectiveness of the training process and the provision of advanced cooking skills; lack of clarity regarding the essence and the elements of training; and lack of a meaningful peer group for the youth engaged in the program. Paradoxically, despite the stakeholders’ great appreciation for the social enterprise, the challenge of governability was also formidable, revealing a tangible risk of mission drift in the reduction of the social enterprise’s target population and a breach of the commitment made to the youth with regard to practical training. The risk of mission drifts emerged as a hidden and evasive issue for the stakeholders, who revealed a deep appreciation for the management and the outcomes of the social enterprise. The challenge of integration, therefore, requires an in-depth examination of how to maintain a successful business without hindering the achievement of the social goal. The study concludes that clear conceptualization of the training process and its aims, increased cooks’ participation in the social project, and novel conceptions with regard to the evaluation of success could serve to benefit the youth and impede mission drift.

Keywords: evaluation study, management, mission drift, social business

Procedia PDF Downloads 90
249 Beyond Objectification: Moderation Analysis of Trauma and Overexcitability Dynamics in Women

Authors: Ritika Chaturvedi

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Introduction: Sexual objectification, characterized by the reduction of an individual to a mere object of sexual desire, remains a pervasive societal issue with profound repercussions on individual well-being. Such experiences, often rooted in systemic and cultural norms, have long-lasting implications for mental and emotional health. This study aims to explore the intricate relationship between experiences of sexual objectification and insidious trauma, further investigating the potential moderating effects of overexcitabilities as proposed by Dabrowski's theory of positive disintegration. Methodology: The research involved a comprehensive cohort of 204 women, spanning ages from 18 to 65 years. Participants were tasked with completing self-administered questionnaires designed to capture their experiences with sexual objectification. Additionally, the questionnaire assessed symptoms indicative of insidious trauma and explored overexcitabilities across five distinct domains: emotional, intellectual, psychomotor, sensory, and imaginational. Employing advanced statistical techniques, including multiple regression and moderation analysis, the study sought to decipher the intricate interplay among these variables. Findings: The study's results revealed a compelling positive correlation between experiences of sexual objectification and the onset of symptoms indicative of insidious trauma. This correlation underscores the profound and detrimental effects of sexual objectification on an individual's psychological well-being. Interestingly, the moderation analyses introduced a nuanced understanding, highlighting the differential roles of various overexcitabilities. Specifically, emotional, intellectual, and sensual overexcitabilities were found to exacerbate trauma symptomatology. In contrast, psychomotor overexcitability emerged as a protective factor, demonstrating a mitigating influence on the relationship between sexual objectification and trauma. Implications: The study's findings hold significant implications for a diverse array of stakeholders, encompassing mental health practitioners, educators, policymakers, and advocacy groups. The identified moderating effects of overexcitabilities emphasize the need for tailored interventions that consider individual differences in coping and resilience mechanisms. By recognizing the pivotal role of overexcitabilities in modulating the traumatic consequences of sexual objectification, this research advocates for the development of more nuanced and targeted support frameworks. Moreover, the study underscores the importance of continued research endeavors to unravel the intricate mechanisms and dynamics underpinning these relationships. Such endeavors are crucial for fostering the evolution of informed, evidence-based interventions and strategies aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of sexual objectification and promoting holistic well-being.

Keywords: sexual objectification, insidious trauma, emotional overexcitability, intellectual overexcitability, sensual overexcitability, psychomotor overexcitability, imaginational overexcitability

Procedia PDF Downloads 22
248 Upgrade of Value Chains and the Effect on Resilience of Russia’s Coal Industry and Receiving Regions on the Path of Energy Transition

Authors: Sergey Nikitenko, Vladimir Klishin, Yury Malakhov, Elena Goosen

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Transition to renewable energy sources (solar, wind, bioenergy, etc.) and launching of alternative energy generation has weakened the role of coal as a source of energy. The Paris Agreement and assumption of obligations by many nations to orderly reduce CO₂ emissions by means of technological modernization and climate change adaptation has abridged coal demand yet more. This paper aims to assess current resilience of the coal industry to stress and to define prospects for coal production optimization using high technologies pursuant to global challenges and requirements of energy transition. Our research is based on the resilience concept adapted to the coal industry. It is proposed to divide the coal sector into segments depending on the prevailing value chains (VC). Four representative models of VC are identified in the coal sector. The most promising lines of upgrading VC in the coal industry include: •Elongation of VC owing to introduction of clean technologies of coal conversion and utilization; •Creation of parallel VC by means of waste management; •Branching of VC (conversion of a company’s VC into a production network). The upgrade effectiveness is governed in many ways by applicability of advanced coal processing technologies, usability of waste, expandability of production, entrance to non-rival markets and localization of new segments of VC in receiving regions. It is also important that upgrade of VC by means of formation of agile high-tech inter-industry production networks within the framework of operating surface and underground mines can reduce social, economic and ecological risks associated with closure of coal mines. Such promising route of VC upgrade is application of methanotrophic bacteria to produce protein to be used as feed-stuff in fish, poultry and cattle breeding, or in production of ferments, lipoids, sterols, antioxidants, pigments and polysaccharides. Closed mines can use recovered methane as a clean energy source. There exist methods of methane utilization from uncontrollable sources, including preliminary treatment and recovery of methane from air-and-methane mixture, or decomposition of methane to hydrogen and acetylene. Separated hydrogen is used in hydrogen fuel cells to generate power to feed the process of methane utilization and to supply external consumers. Despite the recent paradigm of carbon-free energy generation, it is possible to preserve the coal mining industry using the differentiated approach to upgrade of value chains based on flexible technologies with regard to specificity of mining companies.

Keywords: resilience, resilience concept, resilience indicator, resilience in the Russian coal industry, value chains

Procedia PDF Downloads 79
247 Ways to Prevent Increased Wear of the Drive Box Parts and the Central Drive of the Civil Aviation Turbo Engine Based on Tribology

Authors: Liudmila Shabalinskaya, Victor Golovanov, Liudmila Milinis, Sergey Loponos, Alexander Maslov, D. O. Frolov

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The work is devoted to the rapid laboratory diagnosis of the condition of aircraft friction units, based on the application of the nondestructive testing method by analyzing the parameters of wear particles, or tribodiagnostics. The most important task of tribodiagnostics is to develop recommendations for the selection of more advanced designs, materials and lubricants based on data on wear processes for increasing the life and ensuring the safety of the operation of machines and mechanisms. The object of tribodiagnostics in this work are the tooth gears of the central drive and the gearboxes of the gas turbine engine of the civil aviation PS-90A type, in which rolling friction and sliding friction with slip occur. The main criterion for evaluating the technical state of lubricated friction units of a gas turbine engine is the intensity and rate of wear of the friction surfaces of the friction unit parts. When the engine is running, oil samples are taken and the state of the friction surfaces is evaluated according to the parameters of the wear particles contained in the oil sample, which carry important and detailed information about the wear processes in the engine transmission units. The parameters carrying this information include the concentration of wear particles and metals in the oil, the dispersion composition, the shape, the size ratio and the number of particles, the state of their surfaces, the presence in the oil of various mechanical impurities of non-metallic origin. Such a morphological analysis of wear particles has been introduced into the order of monitoring the status and diagnostics of various aircraft engines, including a gas turbine engine, since the type of wear characteristic of the central drive and the drive box is surface fatigue wear and the beginning of its development, accompanied by the formation of microcracks, leads to the formation of spherical, up to 10 μm in size, and in the aftermath of flocculent particles measuring 20-200 μm in size. Tribodiagnostics using the morphological analysis of wear particles includes the following techniques: ferrography, filtering, and computer analysis of the classification and counting of wear particles. Based on the analysis of several series of oil samples taken from the drive box of the engine during their operating time, a study was carried out of the processes of wear kinetics. Based on the results of the study and comparing the series of criteria for tribodiagnostics, wear state ratings and statistics of the results of morphological analysis, norms for the normal operating regime were developed. The study allowed to develop levels of wear state for friction surfaces of gearing and a 10-point rating system for estimating the likelihood of the occurrence of an increased wear mode and, accordingly, prevention of engine failures in flight.

Keywords: aviation, box of drives, morphological analysis, tribodiagnostics, tribology, ferrography, filtering, wear particle

Procedia PDF Downloads 237
246 Nano-Enabling Technical Carbon Fabrics to Achieve Improved Through Thickness Electrical Conductivity in Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composites

Authors: Angelos Evangelou, Katerina Loizou, Loukas Koutsokeras, Orestes Marangos, Giorgos Constantinides, Stylianos Yiatros, Katerina Sofocleous, Vasileios Drakonakis

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Owing to their outstanding strength to weight properties, carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRPs) composites have attracted significant attention finding use in various fields (sports, automotive, transportation, etc.). The current momentum indicates that there is an increasing demand for their employment in high value bespoke applications such as avionics and electronic casings, damage sensing structures, EMI (electromagnetic interference) structures that dictate the use of materials with increased electrical conductivity both in-plane and through the thickness. Several efforts by research groups have focused on enhancing the through-thickness electrical conductivity of FRPs, in an attempt to combine the intrinsically high relative strengths exhibited with improved z-axis electrical response as well. However, only a limited number of studies deal with printing of nano-enhanced polymer inks to produce a pattern on dry fabric level that could be used to fabricate CFRPs with improved through thickness electrical conductivity. The present study investigates the employment of screen-printing process on technical dry fabrics using nano-reinforced polymer-based inks to achieve the required through thickness conductivity, opening new pathways for the application of fiber reinforced composites in niche products. Commercially available inks and in-house prepared inks reinforced with electrically conductive nanoparticles are employed, printed in different patterns. The aim of the present study is to investigate both the effect of the nanoparticle concentration as well as the droplet patterns (diameter, inter-droplet distance and coverage) to optimize printing for the desired level of conductivity enhancement in the lamina level. The electrical conductivity is measured initially at ink level to pinpoint the optimum concentrations to be employed using a “four-probe” configuration. Upon printing of the different patterns, the coverage of the dry fabric area is assessed along with the permeability of the resulting dry fabrics, in alignment with the fabrication of CFRPs that requires adequate wetting by the epoxy matrix. Results demonstrated increased electrical conductivities of the printed droplets, with increase of the conductivity from the benchmark value of 0.1 S/M to between 8 and 10 S/m. Printability of dense and dispersed patterns has exhibited promising results in terms of increasing the z-axis conductivity without inhibiting the penetration of the epoxy matrix at the processing stage of fiber reinforced composites. The high value and niche prospect of the resulting applications that can stem from CFRPs with increased through thickness electrical conductivities highlights the potential of the presented endeavor, signifying screen printing as the process to to nano-enable z-axis electrical conductivity in composite laminas. This work was co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research and Innovation Foundation (Project: ENTERPRISES/0618/0013).

Keywords: CFRPs, conductivity, nano-reinforcement, screen-printing

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245 A Semi-supervised Classification Approach for Trend Following Investment Strategy

Authors: Rodrigo Arnaldo Scarpel

Abstract:

Trend following is a widely accepted investment strategy that adopts a rule-based trading mechanism that rather than striving to predict market direction or on information gathering to decide when to buy and when to sell a stock. Thus, in trend following one must respond to market’s movements that has recently happen and what is currently happening, rather than on what will happen. Optimally, in trend following strategy, is to catch a bull market at its early stage, ride the trend, and liquidate the position at the first evidence of the subsequent bear market. For applying the trend following strategy one needs to find the trend and identify trade signals. In order to avoid false signals, i.e., identify fluctuations of short, mid and long terms and to separate noise from real changes in the trend, most academic works rely on moving averages and other technical analysis indicators, such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the relative strength index (RSI) to uncover intelligible stock trading rules following trend following strategy philosophy. Recently, some works has applied machine learning techniques for trade rules discovery. In those works, the process of rule construction is based on evolutionary learning which aims to adapt the rules to the current environment and searches for the global optimum rules in the search space. In this work, instead of focusing on the usage of machine learning techniques for creating trading rules, a time series trend classification employing a semi-supervised approach was used to early identify both the beginning and the end of upward and downward trends. Such classification model can be employed to identify trade signals and the decision-making procedure is that if an up-trend (down-trend) is identified, a buy (sell) signal is generated. Semi-supervised learning is used for model training when only part of the data is labeled and Semi-supervised classification aims to train a classifier from both the labeled and unlabeled data, such that it is better than the supervised classifier trained only on the labeled data. For illustrating the proposed approach, it was employed daily trade information, including the open, high, low and closing values and volume from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2022, of the São Paulo Exchange Composite index (IBOVESPA). Through this time period it was visually identified consistent changes in price, upwards or downwards, for assigning labels and leaving the rest of the days (when there is not a consistent change in price) unlabeled. For training the classification model, a pseudo-label semi-supervised learning strategy was used employing different technical analysis indicators. In this learning strategy, the core is to use unlabeled data to generate a pseudo-label for supervised training. For evaluating the achieved results, it was considered the annualized return and excess return, the Sortino and the Sharpe indicators. Through the evaluated time period, the obtained results were very consistent and can be considered promising for generating the intended trading signals.

Keywords: evolutionary learning, semi-supervised classification, time series data, trading signals generation

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244 On-Farm Biopurification Systems: Fungal Bioaugmentation of Biomixtures For Carbofuran Removal

Authors: Carlos E. Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Karla Ruiz-Hidalgo, Kattia Madrigal-Zúñiga, Juan Salvador Chin-Pampillo, Mario Masís-Mora, Elizabeth Carazo-Rojas

Abstract:

One of the main causes of contamination linked to agricultural activities is the spillage and disposal of pesticides, especially during the loading, mixing or cleaning of agricultural spraying equipment. One improvement in the handling of pesticides is the use of biopurification systems (BPS), simple and cheap degradation devices where the pesticides are biologically degraded at accelerated rates. The biologically active core of BPS is the biomixture, which is constituted by soil pre-exposed to the target pesticide, a lignocellulosic substrate to promote the activity of ligninolitic fungi and a humic component (peat or compost), mixed at a volumetric proportion of 50:25:25. Considering the known ability of lignocellulosic fungi to degrade a wide range of organic pollutants, and the high amount of lignocellulosic waste used in biomixture preparation, the bioaugmentation of biomixtures with these fungi represents an interesting approach for improving biomixtures. The present work aimed at evaluating the effect of the bioaugmentation of rice husk based biomixtures with the fungus Trametes versicolor in the removal of the insectice/nematicide carbofuran (CFN) and to optimize the composition of the biomixture to obtain the best performance in terms of CFN removal and mineralization, reduction in formation of transformation products and decrease in residual toxicity of the matrix. The evaluation of several lignocellulosic residues (rice husk, wood chips, coconut fiber, sugarcane bagasse or newspaper print) revealed the best colonization by T. versicolor in rice husk. Pre-colonized rice husk was then used in the bioaugmentation of biomixtures also containing soil pre-exposed to CFN and either peat (GTS biomixture) or compost (GCS biomixture). After spiking with 10 mg/kg CBF, the efficiency of the biomixture was evaluated through a multi-component approach that included: monitoring of CBF removal and production of CBF transformation products, mineralization of radioisotopically labeled carbofuran (14C-CBF) and changes in the toxicity of the matrix after the treatment (Daphnia magna acute immobilization test). Estimated half-lives of CBF in the biomixtures were 3.4 d and 8.1 d in GTS and GCS, respectively. The transformation products 3-hydroxycarbofuran and 3-ketocarbofuran were detected at the moment of CFN application, however their concentration continuously disappeared. Mineralization of 14C-CFN was also faster in GTS than GCS. The toxicological evaluation showed a complete toxicity removal in the biomixtures after 48 d of treatment. The composition of the GCS biomixture was optimized using a central composite design and response surface methodology. The design variables were the volumetric content of fungally pre-colonized rice husk and the volumetric ratio compost/soil. According to the response models, maximization of CFN removal and mineralization rate, and minimization in the accumulation of transformation products were obtained with an optimized biomixture of composition 30:43:27 (pre-colonized rice husk:compost:soil), which differs from the 50:25:25 composition commonly employed in BPS. Results suggest that fungal bioaugmentation may enhance the performance of biomixtures in CFN removal. Optimization reveals the importance of assessing new biomixture formulations in order to maximize their performance.

Keywords: bioaugmentation, biopurification systems, degradation, fungi, pesticides, toxicity

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243 Assessing Measures and Caregiving Experiences of Thai Caregivers of Persons with Dementia

Authors: Piyaorn Wajanatinapart, Diane R. Lauver

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The number of persons with dementia (PWD) has increased. Informal caregivers are the major providing care. They can have perceived gains and burdens. Caregivers who reported high in perceived gains may report low in burdens and better health. Gaps of caregiving literature were: no report psychometrics in a few studies and unclear definitions of gains; most studies with no theory-guided and conducting in Western countries; not fully described relationships among caregiving variables: motivations, satisfaction with psychological needs, social support, gains, burdens, and physical and psycho-emotional health. Those gaps were filled by assessing psychometric properties of selected measures, providing clearly definitions of gains, using self-determination theory (SDT) to guide the study, and developing the study in Thailand. The study purposes were to evaluate six measures for internal consistency reliability, content validity, and construct validity. This study also examined relationships of caregiving variables: motivations (controlled and autonomous motivations), satisfaction with psychological needs (autonomy, competency, and relatedness), perceived social support, perceived gains, perceived burdens, and physical and psycho-emotional health. This study was a cross-sectional and correlational descriptive design with two convenience samples. Sample 1 was five Thai experts to assess content validity of measures. Sample 2 was 146 Thai caregivers of PWD to assess construct validity, reliability, and relationships among caregiving variables. Experts rated questionnaires and sent them back via e-mail. Caregivers answered questionnaires at clinics of four Thai hospitals. Data analysis was used descriptive statistics and bivariate and multivariate analyses using the composite indicator structural equation model to control measurement errors. For study results, most caregivers were female (82%), middle age (M =51.1, SD =11.9), and daughters (57%). They provided care for 15 hours/day with 4.6 years. The content validity indices of items and scales were .80 or higher for clarity and relevance. Experts suggested item revisions. Cronbach’s alphas were .63 to .93 of ten subscales of four measures and .26 to .57 of three subscales. The gain scale was acceptable for construct validity. With controlling covariates, controlled motivations, the satisfaction with three subscales of psychological needs, and perceived social support had positive relationships with physical and psycho-emotional health. Both satisfaction with autonomy subscale and perceived social support had negative relationship with perceived burdens. The satisfaction with three subscales of psychological needs had positive relationships among them. Physical and psycho-emotional health subscales had positive relationships with each other. Furthermore, perceived burdens had negative relationships with physical and psycho-emotional health. This study was the first use SDT to describe relationships of caregiving variables in Thailand. Caregivers’ characteristics were consistent with literature. Four measures were valid and reliable except two measures. Breadth knowledge about relationships was provided. Interpretation of study results was cautious because of using same sample to evaluate psychometric properties of measures and relationships of caregiving variables. Researchers could use four measures for further caregiving studies. Using a theory would help describe concepts, propositions, and measures used. Researchers may examine the satisfaction with psychological needs as mediators. Future studies to collect data with caregivers in communities are needed.

Keywords: caregivers, caregiving, dementia, measures

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242 Statistical Comparison of Ensemble Based Storm Surge Forecasting Models

Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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