Search results for: Islamic finance

Authors: Leesa Mohanty, Ashok Banerjee

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Better audit quality signifies the financial statements of the auditee firm reflect true and fair view of their actual state of affairs, which reduces information asymmetry between management and shareholders, as a result, helps protect interests of shareholders. This study examines the impact of joint audit on audit quality. It is motivated by the ongoing debate where The Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI), the regulatory body governing auditors, has advocated the finance ministry and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the mandatory use of joint audit in private banks to enhance the quality of audit. Earlier, the Government of India had rejected the plea by ICAI for mandatory joint audits in large companies stating it is not a viable option for promoting domestic firms. We introduce a new measure of audit quality. Drawing from the domain of text analytics, we use relevant phrases in audit reports to gauge audit quality and demonstrate that joint audit improves audit quality. We also, for robustness, use prevalent proxy for audit quality (Big N Auditor, ratio of audit fees to total fees) and find negative effect of joint audit on audit quality. We, therefore highlight that different proxy for audit quality show opposite effect of joint audit.

Keywords: audit fees, audit quality, Big N. Auditor, joint audit

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Authors: Emmanuel Anim

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Ghana has been touted as an oasis of peace in Africa following her relatively peaceful democratic elections, proliferated number of the media, and freedom of speech. Besides, the former Gold Coast country is yet to experience any major incidence of terrorism. Nevertheless, the somewhat occasional simmering violence and conflicts arising from political, religious and chieftaincy skirmishes, largely at its northern part portrays that it is not immune to the political violence of terrorism. The predominantly-based qualitative research reveals that current conditions of socio-politico-economic, and religious issues in Ghana places the West African country on the possible sidelines of the phenomenon of terrorism, when its status quo is juxtaposed with the factors enumerated to have culminated in the rise of Boko Haram, and its accompanying insurgency in Nigeria. Arguing from the perspective of the theory of Social Movement, the analyses and discussions note that the current state of affairs in Ghana could foster domestic terrorism in the country. What is more, the research shows that Ghana faces threats from transnational terrorism given the tendency for elements in Ghana to sympathize and subscribe to the ideological dictates and appeals from Boko Haram and other terrorist organizations. As a consequence, the study recommends that adverse conditions of poverty, poor governance, unemployment, and rising levels of (Islamic) religious radicalization should be remedied by economic improvements, good governance, job creation, and de-radicalization programs by government officials to aid mitigate the incidence of terrorism in the country.

Keywords: Boko Haram, Ghana, Nigeria, terrorism

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Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

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In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: equivalent martingale measure, European put option, girsanov theorem, martingales, monte carlo method, option price valuation formula

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Authors: Prashant Verma

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Commercial banks are facing immense pressure, including financial disintermediation, interest rate volatility and digital ways of finance. Retaining an existing customer is 5 to 25 less expensive than acquiring a new one. This paper explores customer churn prediction, based on various statistical & machine learning models and uses under-sampling, to improve the predictive power of these models. The results show that out of the various machine learning models, Random Forest which predicts the churn with 78% accuracy, has been found to be the most powerful model for the scenario. Customer vintage, customer’s age, average balance, occupation code, population code, average withdrawal amount, and an average number of transactions were found to be the variables with high predictive power for the churn prediction model. The model can be deployed by the commercial banks in order to avoid the customer churn so that they may retain the funds, which are kept by savings bank (SB) customers. The article suggests a customized campaign to be initiated by commercial banks to avoid SB customer churn. Hence, by giving better customer satisfaction and experience, the commercial banks can limit the customer churn and maintain their deposits.

Keywords: savings bank, customer churn, customer retention, random forests, machine learning, under-sampling

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Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

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Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

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Authors: Fella Lahmar

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This chapter investigates the educational reforms in Algeria, highlighting the challenges and complexities that arise in the context of globalization, equity, and decolonization. While Algeria’s education system historically had a socialist-economic model grounded in Islamic values, contemporary reforms reflect global influences and aspirations for cultural authenticity. The study employed a qualitative approach, utilizing semi-structured interviews with a diverse sample of 15 participants intimately involved in the Algerian education system. Analysis of the data reveals a discrepancy between the educational system’s pedagogical practices and students’ diverse learning needs, implying ramifications for educational equity and social justice. Furthermore, a critical tension was evident between global influences, local cultural authenticity, and the endeavor to decolonize education. In conclusion, the chapter advocates for reforms that prioritize the students’ holistic development and well-being while fostering intrinsic motivation and engagement. This entails re-evaluating curriculum frameworks, assessment strategies, and pedagogies in light of Algeria’s cultural and religious heritage. The chapter also calls for future research to explore methods for innovatively integrating cultural heritage into education in ways to cultivate learners who are both locally grounded and globally aware.

Keywords: impact of globalization on education, parental involvement in education, marketization of education, policy enactment and reform, curriculum overload, holistic approach, shadow education

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Authors: Fatma Ismailia, Malek Saihi

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This research provides an explanation of exchange incentives on the Tunis stock market from a behavioural point of view. The elucidation of the anomalies of excessive volume of transactions and that of excessive volatility cannot be done without the recourse to the psychological aspects of investors. The excessive confidence has been given the predominant role for the explanation of these phenomena. Indeed, when investors store increments, they become more confident about the precision of their private information and their exchange activities then become more aggressive on the subsequent periods. These overconfident investors carry out the intensive exchanges leading to an increase of securities volatility. The objective of this research is to identify whether the trading volume and the excessive volatility of securities observed on the Tunisian stock market come from the excessive exchange of overconfident investors. We use a sample of daily observations over the period January 1999 - October 2007 and we relied on various econometric tests including the VAR model. Our results provide evidence on the importance to consider the bias of overconfidence in the analysis of Tunis stock exchange specificities. The results reveal that the excess of confidence has a major impact on the trading volume while using daily temporal intervals.

Keywords: overconfidence, trading volume, efficiency, rationality, anomalies, behavioural finance, cognitive biases

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Authors: A. M. Daneshian Moghaddam, A. H. Hosseinzadeh, A. Bandehagh

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To investigate the effect of cadmium heavy metal stress on five ecotype of dill, this experiment was conducted in the greenhouse of Tabriz University and Shabestar Islamic Azad University’s laboratories with tree replications. After growing the plants, cadmium treatments (concentration 0,300, 600 µmol) were applied. The essential oil of the samples was measured by hydro distillation and using a Clevenger apparatus. Variables used in this study include: wet and dry roots and aerial part of plant, plant height, stem diameter, and root length. The results showed that different concentrations of heavy metal has statistical difference (p < 0.01) on the fresh weight, dry weight, plant height and root length but hadn’t significant difference on essential oil percentage and root length. Dill ecotypes have statistical significant difference on essential oil percent, fresh plant weight, plant height, root length, except plant dry weight. The interactions between Cd concentration and dill ecotypes have not significant effect on all traits, except root length. Maximum fresh weight (4.98 gr) and minimum amount (3.13 gr) were obtained in control trait and 600 ppm of cd concentration, respectively. Highest amount of fresh weight (4.78 gr) was obtained in Birjand ecotype. Maximum plant dry weight (1.2 gr) was obtained at control. The highest plant height (32.54 cm) was obtained in control and with applies cadmium concentrations from zero to 300 and 600 ppm was found significantly reduced in plant height.

Keywords: pollution, essential oil, ecotype, dill, heavy metals, cadmium

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Authors: Jan-Philipp Schiele, Karsten Schlinkmeier

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Allocation of scarce resources is a core process of traditional project portfolio management. However, with the popularity of agile methodology, established concepts and methods of portfolio management are reaching their limits and need to be adapted. Consequently, the question arises of how the process of resource allocation can be managed appropriately in scaled agile environments. The prevailing framework SAFe offers Weightest Shortest Job First (WSJF) as a prioritization technique, butestablished companies are still looking for methodical adaptions to apply WSJF for prioritization in portfolios in a more goal-oriented way and aligned for their needs in practice. In this paper, the relevant problem of prioritization in portfolios is conceptualized from the perspective of coordination and related mechanisms to support resource allocation. Further, an Action Design Research (ADR) project with case studies in a finance company is outlined to develop a practically applicable yet scientifically sound prioritization method based on coordination theory. The ADR project will be flanked by consortium research with various practitioners from the financial and insurance industry. Preliminary design requirements indicate that the use of a feedback loop leads to better team and executive level coordination in the prioritization process.

Keywords: scaled agility, portfolio management, prioritization, business-IT alignment

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Authors: Olufemi Adedamola Oyedele

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Infrastructure provision in Nigeria is now at its lowest ebb in spite of its being critical to the socio-economic and political development of any nation. This is partly because the policy that will ensure its adequate provisioning is missing and partly because politics is affecting its provision. Policy is the basic principles by which a government is guided. Infrastructural development is the basis for measuring the performance of governments and it is the foundation of good governance. Demand for infrastructural development is higher and resources used in its provision are limited. Ethnic-interest agitation and lobbying for infrastructure provision are common things in multi-ethnic state like Nigeria. Most infrastructures are now decayed and need repair or replacement. Government is the system that organizes, control and sensitizes the people in a society in other for all to have an acceptable level of living. Governments have the power to put in place all measures that they deem fit will make an environment conducive for living for everybody. Infrastructure development in any environment requires needs assessment, feasibility and viability studies and carrying out physical development of the project. The challenge in Nigeria is largely carrying out development where they are not needed but where the people are loyal. There are numerous abandoned projects because they were started due to politics and not because they are feasible. Policies and politics greatly affect infrastructure provisioning in Nigeria and this is the premise of this paper.

Keywords: infrastructure challenges, infrastructure development, policy making, politics, project finance

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Authors: Eman S. Soliman, Sana Hawamdeh, Najmus S. Mahfooz

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper was to examine various components of applied emotional intelligence as demonstrated in the leadership style of Khadijah Bint Khuwaylid in pre and post-Islamic society. Methodology: The research used a qualitative research method, specifically historical and ethnographic techniques. Data collection included both primary and secondary sources. Data from sources were analyzed to document the use of emotional intelligent leadership behaviors throughout Khadijah Bint Khuwaylid leadership experience from 596 A.D. to 621 A.D. Findings: Demonstration of four cornerstones of emotional intelligence which are self-awareness, self-management, social awareness and relationship management. Apply them on khadejah Bint Khuwaylid leadership style reveal that she possess main behavioral competences in the form of emotionally self-aware, self-.confidence, adaptability, empathy and influence. Conclusions: Khadijah Bint Khuwaylid serves as a historical model of effective leadership that included the use of emotional intelligence in her leadership behavior. The inclusion of the effective portion of the brain created a successful leadership style that can be learned by present day and future leadership. The recommendations for future leaders are to include the use of emotionally self-aware and self-confidence, adaptability, empathy and influence as components of leadership. This will then demonstrate in a leadership a basic knowledge and understanding of feelings, the keenness to be emotionally open with others, the ability to prototype beliefs and values, and the use of emotions in future communications, vision and progress.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, leadership, Khadijah Bint Khuwaylid, women

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Authors: Pegah Farokhzad

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Family is a basic unit of the society and the main source of human development. The initial aim of the family is psychological and social support of its members and has special developmental stages. Researches show the families who have less cohesion, have more conflicts and maladjustments and the members of such families are not able to communicate effectively. Family is a system in which any inter communication is related to child rearing patterns and can affect it. Even the child rearing styles in childhood can determine the family communications in adulthood. Therefore, the aim of the present research was to examine the relationship between child-rearing styles including authoritative, authoritarian and permissive with dimensions of family communication patterns including the conversation and conformity. The research design was a correlational and the population consisted of the psychology students of Roudehen Islamic Azad University who were studying in academic year 2013-2014. A sample of 324 students were selected randomly from the population. The research tools were the Baumrind Child-rearing Questionnaires and Family Communication Patterns Inventory, The Revised Scale of Koerner and Fitzpatrick. The results were: (a) There was a positive and significant relationship between conversation orientation and authoritative style. (b) There was no significant relationship between conversation orientation and other child-rearing styles. (c) There was a negative significant relationship between conformity orientation and authoritative style. (d) There was a positive significant relationship between conformity orientation with authoritarian and permissive styles. (e) There was a significant relationship between 3 dimensions of child-rearing and communication patterns.

Keywords: child-rearing styles, family relationship patterns, university students, Iran

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Authors: Siti Ayu Ningsih

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This study aims to find the differences outcomes in learning reading comprehension with text and film as media on Indonesian Language for foreign speaker (BIPA) learning at intermediate level. By using quantitative and qualitative research methods, the respondent of this study is a single respondent from D'Royal Morocco Integrative Islamic School in grade nine from secondary level. Quantitative method used to calculate the learning outcomes that have been given the appropriate action cycle, whereas qualitative method used to translate the findings derived from quantitative methods to be described. The technique used in this study is the observation techniques and testing work. Based on the research, it is known that the use of the text media is more effective than the film for intermediate level of Indonesian Language for foreign speaker learner. This is because, when using film the learner does not have enough time to take note the difficult vocabulary and don't have enough time to look for the meaning of the vocabulary from the dictionary. While the use of media texts shows the better effectiveness because it does not require additional time to take note the difficult words. For the words that are difficult or strange, the learner can immediately find its meaning from the dictionary. The presence of the text is also very helpful for Indonesian Language for foreign speaker learner to find the answers according to the questions more easily. By matching the vocabulary of the question into the text references.

Keywords: Indonesian language for foreign speaker, learning outcome, media, reading comprehension

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Authors: F. O. Adeosun, I. O. Orubuloye, O. O. Babalola

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Although caesarean section has greatly improved obstetric care throughout the world, in developing countries there is a great aversion to caesarean section. This study was carried out to examine the rate at which pregnant women with pre-eclampsia choose caesarean section over natural birth. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 500 pre-eclampsia antenatal clients seen at the States University Teaching Hospitals in the last one year. The sample selection was purposive. Information on their educational background, beliefs and attitudes were collected. Data analysis was presented using simple percentages. Out of 500 women studied, 38% favored caesarean section while 62% were against it. About 89% of them understood what caesarean section is, 57.3% of those who understood what caesarean section is will still not choose it as an option. Over 85% of the women believed caesarean section is done for medical reasons. If caesarean section is given as an option for childbirth, 38% would go for it, 29% would try religious intervention, 5.5% would not choose it because of fear, while 27.5% would reject it because they believe it is culturally wrong. Majority of respondents (85%) who favored caesarean delivery are aware of the risk attached to choosing virginal birth but go an extra mile in sourcing funds for a caesarean session while over 64% cannot afford the cost of caesarean delivery. It is therefore pertinent to encourage research in prediction methods and prevention of occurrence, since this would assist patients to plan on how to finance treatment.

Keywords: caesarean section, choice, cost, pre eclampsia, prediction methods

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Authors: Andrew Clark

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McCauley, Bassler, and Gunaratne show that integration I(d) processes as used in economics and finance do not necessarily produce stationary increments, which are required to determine causality in both the short term and the long term. This paper follows their lead and shows I(d) aluminum cash and futures log prices at daily and weekly intervals do not have stationary increments, which means prior causality studies using I(d) processes need to be re-examined. Wavelets based on undifferenced cash and futures log prices do have stationary increments and are used along with transfer entropy (versus cointegration) to measure causality. Wavelets exhibit causality at most daily time scales out to 1 year, and weekly time scales out to 1 year and more. To determine stationarity, localized stationary wavelets are used. LSWs have the benefit, versus other means of testing for stationarity, of using multiple hypothesis tests to determine stationarity. As informational flows exist between cash and futures at daily and weekly intervals, the aluminum market is efficient. Therefore, hedges used by producers and consumers of aluminum need not have a big concern in terms of the underestimation of hedge ratios. Questions about arbitrage given efficiency are addressed in the paper.

Keywords: transfer entropy, nonstationary increments, wavelets, localized stationary wavelets, localized stationary wavelets

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Authors: Paramita Nur Kurniati, Stanislaus Riyanta

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In the midst of the heightened usage of electronic money (e-money), Indonesian government expenditure is yet governed through cash-basis transactions. This conventional system brings about a number of potential risks and obstacles to operational conduct, including state financial liquidity issue. Consequently, Ministry of Finance is currently establishing the cashless payment methods for State Budget (APBN). Included in those advance methods is credit card facility as a government expenditure payment scheme. This policy is one of the innovations within the public sector learned from other countries’ best practices. Moreover, this particular method is already prominent within the private-sector realm. Qualitative descriptive analysis technique is implemented to evaluate the contemporary innovation of using government credit card in the path towards cashless society. This approach is expected to generate several benefits for the government, particularly in minimizing corruption within the state financial management. Effective coordination among policy makers and policy implementers is essential for the success of this policy’s exercise, without neglecting prudence and public transparency aspects. Government credit card usage shall be the potent resolution for enhancing the government’s overall public service performance.

Keywords: cashless basis, cashless society, government credit card, public sector innovation

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Authors: Musa M. Umar, S. G. Ado

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The paper examines the activities of the National Programme for food security (NPFS) for averting food insecurity in Nigeria and beyond. The components of the NPFS include site development, outreach, community development and management support. On each site, core activities comprise crop productivity, production diversification and agro-processing. The outreach activities consist of inputs and commodity marketing, rural finance, strengthening research-extension-farmers-inputs linkages, health and nutrition and expansion of site activities. The community development activities include small-scale rural infrastructure, micro-earth dams and community forestry. The overall benefits include food security, improved productivity, marketing and processing, enhanced land and water use, increased animal production and fish catches, improved nutrition, reduction in post-harvest losses and value addition, improved rural infrastructure and diversification of production leading to improved livelihood. The NPFS would poster sustained development of small-holder agricultural and income generation.

Keywords: food-security, community development, post-harvest, production

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Authors: Mohammad Hossein Badamchi

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As Leo Strauss demonstrates in his works, Political Philosophy in the western tradition is an epistemic-naturalistic tradition insofar Hanna Arendt mentioning the deep conflict between philosophy and politics, opposed to be named “political philosopher” prefer the title “political thinker” for herself. In fact, the Western political philosophy’s tendency to derive politics from natural law and epistemic argumentations makes a paradox between the actual “the political” and the theoretical “natural politics” in the western tradition. In this paper, we want to show that Hanna Arendt, in her exploration to find a new realm of the non-naturalistic way of thinking about the political is walking on a completely different tradition of political philosophy which was first established by Al-Farabi, the founder of Islamic political philosophy around thousand years after Greek Philosophy. Despite Aristotelian Polis which is a Natural community based on true natural rationality to reach the natural purposes of mankind, Al-Farabi’s Madine (his reconstructed concept of Aristotelian Polis) is completely constructed against natural cities, which are formulated by necessity logic of natural arguments and natural deception of humanity. In fact, Farabi considers the natural understanding of politics as Ignorant ideologies used by governments to suppress people. Madine in Farabi’s work is not a natural institution but is a collaborative constitution founded by citizens. So despite Aristotelian thinking, here we don’t have just A Polis that is the one true polis, but we have various multiple Madines among one, is virtuous not by definition but by real action of citizens and civil relations. Al-Farabi’s political philosophy is not a Naturalistic-epistemic Political Philosophy but is a Phronetic Political Philosophy which Hanna Arendt wants to establish outside of western contemplative anti-active political philosophy tradition.

Keywords: al-farabi, hanna arendt, natural politics, the political, political philosophy

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Authors: Rana Daneshvar Salehi

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In many Iranian cities including ‎‎Mashhad‎, the capital of ‎‎‎‎Razavi Khorasan Province‏‎, ‎ordinary samples of domestic architecture ‎on a ‎‏small scale is not ‎‎‎considered as ‎heritage. ‎While the ‎principals of house formation are ‎‎respected in all ‎‎traditional Iranian ‎‎‎‎houses‎; ‎from moderate to great ones. During the past decade, Mashhad has lost its identity, and has become a modern city. Identifying it as the capital of the Islamic Culture in 2017 by ISESCO and consequently looking for new developments and transfiguration caused to demolish a large ‎number ‎of ‎traditional modest habitation. ‎For this ‎reason, the present paper aims to introduce ‎the three ‎undiscovered houses with the ‎historical and monumental values located in the ‎oldest ‎neighborhoods of Mashhad which have been neglected in the cultural ‎heritage field. The preliminary phase of this approach will be a measured survey to identify the significant characteristics ‎of ‎selected dwellings and understand the challenges through focusing on building ‎form, orientation, ‎‎room function, space proportion and ornamental elements’ details. A comparison between the ‎‎case studies and the wealthy domestically buildings ‎presents that a house belongs to inhabitants ‎with an average income could introduce the same accurate, regular, harmonic and proportionate ‎design which can be found in the great mansions. It reveals that an ordinary traditional house can ‎be regarded as valuable construction not only for its historical characteristics but also ‎for its ‎aesthetical and architectural features that could avoid further destructions in the future.

Keywords: traditional ordinary house, architectural characteristic, proportion, heritage

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Authors: Galal H. Senussi, Muamar Benisa, Sanja Vasin

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In our business field today, one of the most important issues for any enterprises is cost minimization and profit maximization. Second issue is how to develop a strong and capable model that is able to give us desired forecasting of these two issues. Many researches deal with these issues using different methods. In this study, we developed a model for multi-criteria production program optimization, integrated with Artificial Neural Network. The prediction of the production cost and profit per unit of a product, dealing with two obverse functions at same time can be extremely difficult, especially if there is a great amount of conflict information about production parameters. Feed-Forward Neural Networks are suitable for generalization, which means that the network will generate a proper output as a result to input it has never seen. Therefore, with small set of examples the network will adjust its weight coefficients so the input will generate a proper output. This essential characteristic is of the most important abilities enabling this network to be used in variety of problems spreading from engineering to finance etc. From our results as we will see later, Feed-Forward Neural Networks has a strong ability and capability to map inputs into desired outputs.

Keywords: project profitability, multi-objective optimization, genetic algorithm, Pareto set, neural networks

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Authors: Feisal Khudher Mahmood, Abdul Samad Rahman Sultan

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Iraq had been a diverse society with races, cultures and religions that peacefully coexistence. The phenomenon of internal displacement occurred after April 2003, because of political instability as will as the deterioration of the political and security situation as a result of United States of America occupation. Biggest internal displacement have occurred (and keep happening) since 10th of June 2014 due to rise of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and it’s occupation of one third of country territories. This crisis effected directly 3,275,000 people and reflected negatively on the social fabric of Iraq community and led to waves of sectorial violence that swept the country. Internal displaced communities are vulnerable, especially under non functional and weak government, that led to lose of essential human rights and dignity. Using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Geospatial Techniques, two types of internal displacement have been found; voluntary and forced. Both types of displacement are highly influenced by location, race and religion. The main challenge for Iraqi government and NGOs will be after defeating ISIS. Helping the displaced to resettle within their community and to re-establish the coexistence. By spatial-statical analysis hot spots of future conflicts among displaced community have been highlighted. This will help the government to tackle future conflicts before they occur. Also, it will be the base for social conflict early warning system.

Keywords: internal displacement, Iraq, ISIS, human security, human rights, GIS, spatial-statical analysis

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Authors: Julinda Keçi

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In many countries, governments have been promoting the involvement of private sector entities to enter into long-term agreements for the development and delivery of large infrastructure projects, with a focus on overcoming the limitations upon public fund of the traditional approach. The involvement of private sector through public-private partnerships (PPP) brings in new capital investments, value for money and additional risks to handle. Worldwide research studies have shown that an objective, systematic, reliable and user-oriented risk assessment process and an optimal allocation mechanism among different stakeholders is crucial to the successful completion. In this framework this paper, which is the first stage of a research study, aims to identify the main risks for the delivery of PPP projects. A review of cross-countries research projects and case studies was performed to map the key risks affecting PPP infrastructure delivery. The matrix of mapping offers a summary of the frequency of factors, clustered in eleven categories: Construction, Design, Economic, Legal, Market, Natural, Operation, Political, Project finance, Project selection and Relationship. Results will highlight the most critical risk factors, and will hopefully assist the project managers in directing the managerial attention in the further stages of risk allocation.

Keywords: construction, infrastructure, public private partnerships, risks

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Authors: Ceren Vardar Acar, Mine Caglar

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In finance, the price of a volatile asset can be modeled using fractional Brownian motion (fBm) with Hurst parameter H>1/2. The Black-Scholes model for the values of returns of an asset using fBm is given as, 〖Y_t=Y_0 e^((r+μ)t+σB)〗_t^H, 0≤t≤T where Y_0 is the initial value, r is constant interest rate, μ is constant drift and σ is constant diffusion coefficient of fBm, which is denoted by B_t^H where t≥0. Black-Scholes model can be constructed with some Markov processes such as Brownian motion. The advantage of modeling with fBm to Markov processes is its capability of exposing the dependence between returns. The real life data for a volatile asset display long-range dependence property. For this reason, using fBm is a more realistic model compared to Markov processes. Investors would be interested in any kind of information on the risk in order to manage it or hedge it. The maximum possible loss is one way to measure highest possible risk. Therefore, it is an important variable for investors. In our study, we give some theoretical bounds on the distribution of maximum possible loss of fBm. We provide both asymptotical and strong estimates for the tail probability of maximum loss of standard fBm and fBm with drift and diffusion coefficients. In the investment point of view, these results explain, how large values of possible loss behave and its bounds.

Keywords: maximum drawdown, maximum loss, fractional brownian motion, large deviation, Gaussian process

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Authors: Menelik Tilahun Alemu

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Customs administrations are now increasingly regarded as the key border agencies responsible for all transactions related to issues arising from the border crossings of goods and people. Raising revenue has traditionally been high on the agenda of governments, represented by the Ministry of Finance (MOF), because of the critical importance of import duties as a source of budget revenue for many developing countries. Most of these functions are undertaken in close cooperation with other national agencies. Due to the need to make structural reforms that consider the nature of business activities in the world and the needs of consumers, the institution was previously divided into the Ministry of Revenue and the Customs Commission. Accordingly, the Ministry of Revenue is primarily responsible for administering and collecting local taxes, while the Customs Commission is responsible for administering customs matters; It supports exports and collects revenue from it. The National Import and Export Trade Service System is working to make the world more transparent and standardized and adapt to the current situation by formulating various guidelines, rules and procedures to provide a clear, simple, predictable and accessible service to customers. As a result, the commission will be able to streamline the business process by enabling Paperless customer service to support the service delivery technology and eliminate the customer iteration without having to incur unnecessary costs and inconveniences.

Keywords: business, consumers, adapt, transparent

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Authors: Musa Mayanja Lwanga, Annet Adong

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This study provides a micro perspective on the impact of mobile money services on individual’s saving behavior using the 2013 Uganda FinScope data. Results show that although saving through the mobile phone is not a common practice in Uganda, being a registered mobile money user increases the likelihood to save with mobile money. Saving using mobile is more prevalent in urban areas and in Kampala and Central region compared to other regions. This can be explained by: first, rural dwellers tend on average to have lower incomes and thus have lower to saving compared to the urban counterpart. Similarly, residents of Kampala tend to have higher incomes and thus high savings compared to residents of other regions. Secondly, poor infrastructure in rural areas in terms of lack of electricity and poor telecommunication network coverage may limit the use of mobile phones and consequently the use of mobile money as a saving mechanism. Overall, the use of mobile money as a saving mechanism is still very low and this could be partly explained by limitations in the legislation that does not incorporate mobile finance services into mobile money. The absence of interest payments on mobile money savings may act as a disincentive to save through this mechanism. Given the emerging mobile banking services, there is a need to create more awareness and the need for enhanced synergies between telecom companies and commercial banks.

Keywords: financial inclusion, mobile money, savings, Uganda

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Authors: Abdullah Almowanes

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The speed of adoption of new information and communication technologies is often seen as an indicator of the growth of knowledge- and technological innovation-based regional economies. Indeed, technological progress and scientific inquiry in any society have undergone a particularly profound transformation with the introduction of computer networks. In the spring of 1981, the Bitnet network was launched to link thousands of nodes all over the world. In 1985 and as one of the first adopters of Bitnet, Saudi Arabia launched a Bitnet-based network named Gulfnet that linked computer centers, universities, and libraries of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries through high speed communication lines. In this paper, the origins and the deployment of Gulfnet are discussed as well as social, economical, political, and cultural ramifications of the new information reality created by the network. Despite its significance, the social and cultural aspects of Gulfnet have not been investigated in history of science and technology literature to a satisfactory degree before. The presented research is based on an extensive archival research aimed at seeking out and analyzing of primary evidence from archival sources and records. During its decade and a half-long existence, Gulfnet demonstrated that the scope and functionality of public computer networks in Saudi Arabia have to be fine-tuned for compliance with Islamic culture and political system of the country. It also helped lay the groundwork for the subsequent introduction of the Internet. Since 1980s, in just few decades, the proliferation of computer networks has transformed communications world-wide.

Keywords: Bitnet, computer networks, computing and culture, Gulfnet, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Farid Abbasi

Abstract:

Geographical spaces have different relations with each other, and especially neighboring geographical spaces have more relations than other spaces due to their proximity. Meanwhile, various parameters affect the relationships between these spaces, such as environmental parameters. These parameters have become important in recent decades, affecting the political relations of the actors in neighboring spaces. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Turkey, as two actors in the region, political relations seem to have been affected to some extent by environmental issues. Based on this, the present study tries to examine and analyze the political relations between the two countries from an environmental, and geopolitical perspective. The method of this research is descriptive-analytical. The method of data analysis is based on library and field information (questionnaire) in the form of content analysis and statistics through the Mick Mac software system and Scenario Wizard. The results of studies and analysis of theories show that 35 indicators, directly and indirectly, affect Iran-Turkey relations from an environmental, and geopolitical perspective, which are in the form of five dimensions (water resources, soil resources, Vegetation, climate, living species). Using the Mick Mac method, 9 factors were extracted as key factors affecting Iran-Turkey relations, and in the process of analyzing research scenarios, 10100 possible situations were presented by scenario wizard software. 9 strong scenarios with 3 scenarios of favorable and very favorable situations, 3 scenarios with moderate situations and also 3 scenarios with critical situations and catastrophes according to Iran-Turkey relations from the environmental aspect are presented.

Keywords: geopolitics, relations, Iran, Turkey, environment

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Authors: Marwen Ghouil, Jamel Eddine Mkadmi

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Banking performance is the pillar and goal of all banking activity and its impact on economic policy. First, researchers defined the principles for assessing and modeling bank performance, and then theories and models explaining bank performance were developed. The importance of credit as a means of financing businesses in most developing countries has led to questions about the effects of financial liberalisation on increased banking competition. In Tunisia, as in many other countries, the liberalization of financial services in general and of banks' activities has not ceased to evolve. The objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of banking performance for 8 Tunisian banks and their impact on economic policy during the Arab Spring. We used cointegration analysis and the ARDL Panel model, explaining using total assets, bank credits, guarantees, and bank size as performance drivers. The correlation analysis shows that there is a positive correlation relationship between total assets, bank credits, guarantees, and bank size and bank performance. Long-term empirical results show that bank loans, guarantees, bank size, and total assets have a positive and significant impact on bank performance. This means that bank credits, guarantees, bank size, and total assets are very important determinants of bank performance in Tunisia.

Keywords: bank performance, economic policy, finance, economic

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Authors: Seyed Habib A. Rahmati, Parsa Fallah Sheikhlari, Morteza Musakhani

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This paper studies the structure of financial investment and efficiency on the subway would be created between Hashtgerd and Qazvin in Iran. Regarding ascending rate of transportation between Tehran and Qazvin which directly air pollution, it clearly implies to public transportation requirement between these two cities near Tehran. The railway transportation like subway can help each country to terminate traffic jam which has some advantages such as speed, security, non-pollution, low cost of public transport, etc. This type of transportation needs national infrastructures which require enormous investment. It couldn’t implement without leading and managing funds and investments properly. In order to response 'needs', clear norms or normative targets have to be agreed and obviously it is important to distinguish costs from investment requirements critically. Implementation phase affects investment requirements and financing needs. So recognizing barrier related to investment and the quality of investment (what technologies and services are invested in) is as important as the amounts of investment. Different investment methods have mentioned as follows loan, leasing, equity participation, Line of financing, finance, usance, bay back. Alternatives survey before initiation and analyzing of risk management is one of the most important parts in this project. Observation of similar project cities each country has the own specification to choose investment method.

Keywords: subway project, project investment, project contract, project management

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Authors: Sara Bilal, Abdi Omar Shuriye, Raihan Othman

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Numerical Methods is a course that can be conducted using workshops and group discussion. This study has been implemented on undergraduate students of level two at the Faculty of Engineering, International Islamic University Malaysia. The Numerical Method course has been delivered to two Sections 1 and 2 with 44 and 22 students in each section, respectively. Systematic steps have been followed to apply the student centered learning approach in teaching Numerical Method course. Initially, the instructor has chosen the topic which was Euler’s Method to solve Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) to be learned. The students were then divided into groups with five members in each group. Initial instructions have been given to the group members to prepare their subtopics before meeting members from other groups to discuss the subtopics in an expert group inside the classroom. For the time assigned for the classroom discussion, the setting of the classroom was rearranged to accommodate the student centered learning approach. Teacher strength was by monitoring the process of learning inside and outside the class. The students have been assessed during the migrating to the expert groups, recording of a video explanation outside the classroom and during the final examination. Euler’s Method to solve the ODE was set as part of Question 3(b) in the final exam. It is observed that none of the students from both sections obtained a zero grade in Q3(b), compared to Q3(a) and Q3(c). Also, for Section 1(44 students), 29 students obtained the full mark of 7/7, while only 10 obtained 7/7 for Q3(a) and no students obtained 6/6 for Q3(c). Finally, we can recommend that the Numerical Method course be moved toward more student-centered Learning classrooms where the students will be engaged in group discussion rather than having a teacher one man show.

Keywords: teacher centered learning, student centered learning, mathematic, numerical methods

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