Search results for: operational risk
4344 The Efficacy of Psychological Interventions for Psychosis: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis
Authors: Radu Soflau, Lia-Ecaterina Oltean
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Background: Increasing evidence supports the efficacy of psychological interventions for psychosis. However, it is unclear which one of these interventions is most likely to address negative psychotic symptoms and related outcomes. We aimed to determine the relative efficacy of psychological and psychosocial interventions for negative symptoms, overall psychotic symptoms, and related outcomes. Methods: To attain this goal, we conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis. We searched for potentially eligible trials in PubMed, EMBASE, PsycInfo, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials.gov databases up until February 08, 2022. We included randomized controlled trials that investigated the efficacy of psychological for adults with psychosis. We excluded interventions for prodromal or “at risk” individuals, as well as patients with serious co-morbid medical or psychiatric conditions (others than depressive and/or anxiety disorders). Two researchers conducted study selection and performed data extraction independently. Analyses were run using STATA network and mvmeta packages, applying a random effect model under a frequentist framework in order to compute standardized mean differences or risk ratio. Findings: We identified 47844 records and screened 29466 records for eligibility. The majority of eligible interventions were delivered in addition to pharmacological treatment. Treatment as usual (TAU) was the most frequent common comparator. Theoretically driven psychological interventions generally outperformed TAU at post-test and follow-up, displaying small and small-to-medium effect sizes. A similar pattern of results emerged in sensitivity analyses focused on studies that employed an inclusion criterion for relevant negative symptom severity. Conclusion: While the efficacy of some psychological interventions is promising, there is a need for more high-quality studies, as well as more trials directly comparing psychological treatments for negative psychotic symptoms.Keywords: psychosis, network meta-analysis, psychological interventions, efficacy, negative symptoms
Procedia PDF Downloads 1034343 Managing Risks of Civil War: Accounting Practices in Egyptian Households
Authors: Sumohon Matilal, Neveen Abdelrehim
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The purpose of this study is to examine the way households manage the risks of civil war, using the calculative practices of accounting as a lens. As is the case with other social phenomena, accounting serves as a conduit for attributing values and rationales to crisis and in the process makes it visible and calculable. Our focus, in particular, is on the dialogue facilitated by the numerical logic of accounting between the householder and a crisis scenario, such as civil war. In other words, we seek to study how the risk of war is rationalized through household budgets, income and expenditure statements etc. and how such accounting constructs in turn shape attitudes toward earnings and spending in a wartime economy. The existing literature on war and accounting demonstrates how an accounting logic can have potentially destabilising consequences and how it is used to legitimise war. However, very few scholars have looked at the way accounting constructs are used to internalise the effects of war in an average household and the behavioural consequences that arise from such accounting. Relatedly, scholars studying household accounting have mostly focussed on the links between gender and hierarchy in relation to managing the financial affairs. Few have focused on the role of household accounts in a crisis scenario. This study intends to fill this gap. We draw upon Egypt, a country in the middle of civil war since 2011 for our purpose. We intend to carry out 15-20 semi-structured interviews with middle income households in Cairo that maintain some form of accounts to study the following issues: 1. How do people internalise the risks of civil war? What kind of accounting constructs do they use (this may take the form of simple budgets, income-expenditure notes/statements on a periodic basis, spreadsheets etc.) 2. How has civil war affected household expenditure? Are people spending more/less than before? 3. How has civil war affected household income? Are people finding it difficult/easy to survive on the pre-war income? 4. How is such accounting affecting household behaviour towards earnings and expenditure? Are families prioritising expenditure on necessities alone? Are they refraining from indulging in luxuries? Are family members doing two or three jobs to cope with difficult times? Are families increasingly turning toward borrowing? Is credit available? From whom?Keywords: risk, accounting, war, crisis
Procedia PDF Downloads 2014342 Analysis of Energy Efficiency Behavior with the Use of Train Dynamics Simulator and Statistical Tools: Case Study of Vitoria Minas Railway, Brazil
Authors: Eric Wilson Santos Cabral, Marta Monteiro Da Costa Cruz, Fabio Luis Maciel Machado, Henrique Andrade, Rodrigo Pirola Pestana, Vivian Andrea Parreira
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The large variation in the price of diesel in Brazil directly affects the variable cost of companies operating in the transportation sector. In rail transport, the great challenge is to overcome the annual budget, cargo and ore transported with cost reduction in relation to previous years, becoming more efficient every year. Some effective measures are necessary to achieve the reduction of the liter ratio consumed by KTKB (Gross Ton per Kilometer multiplied by thousand). This acronym represents the indicator of energy efficiency of some railroads in the world. This study is divided into two parts: the first, to identify using statistical tools, part of the controlled variables in the railways, which have a correlation with the energy efficiency indicator, seeking to aid decision-making. The second, with the use of the train dynamics simulator, within scenarios defined in the operational reality of a railroad, seeks to optimize the train formations and the train stop model for the change of train drivers. With the completion of the study, companies in the rail sector are expected to be able to reduce some of their transportation costs.Keywords: railway transport, railway simulation, energy efficiency, fuel consumption
Procedia PDF Downloads 3354341 Effects of Supplementary Cementitious Materials on Early Age Thermal Properties of Cement Paste
Authors: Maryam Ghareh Chaei, Masuzyo Chilwesa, Ali Akbarnezhad, Arnaud Castel, Redmond Lloyd, Stephen Foster
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Cement hydration is an exothermic chemical reaction generally leading to a rise in concrete’s temperature. This internal heating of concrete may, in turn, lead to a temperature difference between the hotter interior and the cooler exterior of concrete and thus differential thermal stresses in early ages which could be particularly significant in mass concrete. Such differential thermal stresses result in early age thermal cracking of concrete when exceeding the concrete’s tensile strength. The extent of temperature rise and thus early age differential thermal stresses is generally a function of hydration heat intensity, thermal properties of concrete and size of the concrete element. Both hydration heat intensity and thermal properties of concrete may vary considerably with variations in the type cementitious materials and other constituents. With this in mind, partial replacement of cement with supplementary cementitious materials including fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag has been investigated widely as an effective strategy to moderate the heat generation rate and thus reduce the risk of early age thermal cracking of concrete. However, there is currently a lack of adequate literature on effect of partial replacement of cement with fly ash and/or ground granulated blast furnace slag on the thermal properties of concrete. This paper presents the results of an experimental conducted to evaluate the effect of addition of varying percentages of fly ash (up to 60%) and ground granulated blast furnace slag (up to 50%) on the heat capacity and thermal conductivity of early age cement paste. The water to cementitious materials ratio is kept 0.45 for all the paste samples. The results of the experimental studies were used in a numerical analysis performed using Comsol Multiphysics to highlight the effects of variations in the thermal properties of concrete, due to variations in the type of aggregate and content of supplemenraty cementitious materials, on the risk of early age cracking of a concrete raft.Keywords: thermal diffusivity, early age thermal cracking, concrete, supplementary cementitious materials
Procedia PDF Downloads 2524340 Correlates of Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Knowledge and Acceptance Attitude Towards People Living with HIV/AIDS: A Cross-Sectional Study among Unmarried Young Women in Uganda
Authors: Tesfaldet Mekonnen Estifanos, Chen Hui, Afewerki Weldezgi
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Background: Youth in general and young females in particular, remain at the center of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Sexual risk-taking among young unmarried women is relatively high and are the most vulnerable and highly exposed to HIV/AIDS. Improvements in the status of HIV/AIDS knowledge and acceptance attitude towards people living with HIV (PLWHIV) plays a great role in averting the incidence of HIV/AIDS. Thus, the aim of the study was to explore the level and correlates of HIV/AIDS knowledge and accepting attitude toward PLWHIV. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the Uganda Demographic Health Survey 2016 (UDHS-2016). National level representative household surveys using a multistage cluster probability sampling method, face to face interviews with standard questionnaires were performed. Unmarried women aged 15-24 years with a sample size of 2019 were selected from the total sample of 8674 women aged 15-49 years and were analyzed using SPSS version 23. Independent variables such as age, religion, educational level, residence, and wealth index were included. Two binary outcome variables (comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge and acceptance attitude toward PLWHIV) were utilized. We used the chi-square test as well as multivariate regression analysis to explore correlations of explanatory variables with the outcome variables. The results were reported by odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI), taking a p-value less than 0.05 as significant. Results: Almost all (99.3%) of the unmarried women aged 15-24 years were aware of HIV/AIDS, but only 51.2% had adequate comprehensive knowledge on HIV/AIDS. Only 69.4% knew both methods: using a condom every time had sex, and having only one faithful uninfected partner can prevent HIV/AIDS transmission. About 66.6% of the unmarried women reject at least two common local misconceptions about HIV/AIDS. Moreover, an alarmingly few (20.3%) of the respondents had a positive acceptance attitude to PLWHIV. On multivariate analysis, age (20-24 years), living in urban, being educated and wealthier, were predictors of having adequate comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge. On the other hand, research participants with adequate comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS were highly likely (OR, 1.94 95% CI, 1.52-2.46) to have a positive acceptance attitude to PLWHIV than those with inadequate knowledge. Respondents with no education, Muslim, and Pentecostal religion were emerged less likely to have a positive acceptance attitude to PLWHIV. Conclusion: This study found out the highly accepted level of awareness, but the knowledge and positive acceptance attitude are not encouraging. Thus, expanding access to comprehensive sexuality and strengthening educational campaigns on HIV/AIDS in communities, health facilities, and schools is needed with a greater focus on disadvantaged women having low educational level, poor socioeconomic status, and those residing in rural areas. Sexual risk behaviors among the most affected people - young women have also a role in the spread of HIV/AIDS. Hence, further research assessing the significant contributing factors for sexual risk-taking might have a positive impact on the fight against HIV/AIDS.Keywords: acceptance attitude, HIV/AIDS, knowledge, unmarried women
Procedia PDF Downloads 1534339 The Function of Polycomb Repressive Complex 2 (PRC2) In Plant Retrograde Signaling Pathway
Authors: Mingxi Zhou, Jiří Kubásek, Iva Mozgová
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In Arabidopsis thaliana, histone 3 lysine 27 tri-methylation catalysed byPRC2 is playing essential functions in the regulation of plant development, growth, and reproduction[1-2]. Despite numerous studies related to the role of PRC2 in developmental control, how PRC2 works in the operational control in plants is unknown. In the present, the evidence that PRC2 probably participates in the regulation of retrograde singalling pathway in Arabidopsisis found. Firstly, we observed that the rosette size and biomass in PRC2-depletion mutants (clf-29 and swn-3) is significantly higher than WTunder medium light condition (ML: 125 µmol m⁻² s⁻²), while under medium high light condition (MHL: 300 µmol m⁻² s-2), the increase was reverse. Under ML condition, the photosynthesis related parameters determined by fluorCam did not show significant differences between WT and mutants, while the pigments concentration increased in the leaf of PRC2-depletion mutants, especially in swn. The dynamic of light-responsive genes and circadian clock genes expression by RT-qPCRwithin 24 hours in the mutants were comparable to WT. However, we observed upregulation of photosynthesis-associated nuclear genes in the PRC2-depletion mutants under chloroplast damaging condition (treated by lincomycin), corresponding to the so-called genome uncoupled (gun) phenotype. Here, we will present our results describing these phenotypes and our suggestion and outlook for studying the involvement of PRC2 in chloroplast-to-nucleus retrograde signalling.Keywords: PRC2, retrograde signalling, light acclimation, photosyntheis
Procedia PDF Downloads 1104338 Predictive Value Modified Sick Neonatal Score (MSNS) On Critically Ill Neonates Outcome Treated in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU)
Authors: Oktavian Prasetia Wardana, Martono Tri Utomo, Risa Etika, Kartika Darma Handayani, Dina Angelika, Wurry Ayuningtyas
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Background: Critically ill neonates are newborn babies with high-risk factors that potentially cause disability and/or death. Scoring systems for determining the severity of the disease have been widely developed as well as some designs for use in neonates. The SNAPPE-II method, which has been used as a mortality predictor scoring system in several referral centers, was found to be slow in assessing the outcome of critically ill neonates in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU). Objective: To analyze the predictive value of MSNS on the outcome of critically ill neonates at the time of arrival up to 24 hours after being admitted to the NICU. Methods: A longitudinal observational analytic study based on medical record data was conducted from January to August 2022. Each sample was recorded from medical record data, including data on gestational age, mode of delivery, APGAR score at birth, resuscitation measures at birth, duration of resuscitation, post-resuscitation ventilation, physical examination at birth (including vital signs and any congenital abnormalities), the results of routine laboratory examinations, as well as the neonatal outcomes. Results: This study involved 105 critically ill neonates who were admitted to the NICU. The outcome of critically ill neonates was 50 (47.6%) neonates died, and 55 (52.4%) neonates lived. There were more males than females (61% vs. 39%). The mean gestational age of the subjects in this study was 33.8 ± 4.28 weeks, with the mean birth weight of the subjects being 1820.31 ± 33.18 g. The mean MSNS score of neonates with a deadly outcome was lower than that of the lived outcome. ROC curve with a cut point MSNS score <10.5 obtained an AUC of 93.5% (95% CI: 88.3-98.6) with a sensitivity value of 84% (95% CI: 80.5-94.9), specificity 80 % (CI 95%: 88.3-98.6), Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 79.2%, Negative Predictive Value (NPV) 84.6%, Risk Ratio (RR) 5.14 with Hosmer & Lemeshow test results p>0.05. Conclusion: The MSNS score has a good predictive value and good calibration of the outcomes of critically ill neonates admitted to the NICU.Keywords: critically ill neonate, outcome, MSNS, NICU, predictive value
Procedia PDF Downloads 694337 School Administrators’ Perspectives on Child Neglect and Abuse and Intervention Methods
Authors: Eylem G. Cengiz, Ersin Çilek, Gözde Başkaya, Havva Nur Taş
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It is possible to define the abuse and neglect of the child as a social problem. Such adverse experiences of the child are witnessed by wider social circles as well as his or her immediate environment. The most effective institution among these social circles is the school. The awareness of teachers, administrators, and even auxiliary personnel on this issue can act as a protective and preventive buffer because teachers have the opportunity to be with children every day and constantly observe them; therefore, they can notice the physical and mental changes in students. Furthermore, school administrators have an undeniable role in recognizing and responding to the risk of neglect and abuse. This study aims to evaluate the awareness of school administrators on the risk factors, clues, and ways of intervention towards abuse and neglect through the scenarios given to them. Data were collected from 37 primary, secondary, and high school administrators working in various provinces of Turkey through descriptive and scenario-based questions to determine their general knowledge of the concepts of neglect and abuse and their general tendencies towards practice. Descriptive questions were evaluated with content analysis, and scenario-based questions were evaluated with numerical qualitative data analysis. Concepts and themes were tried to be reached by content analysis from the descriptive data collected. When the results are evaluated in general, it is striking that the concept of child abuse means only sexual abuse for some school administrators. There is an important uncertainty for school administrators in the content of the idea of neglect. When the views on the causes of neglect and abuse are examined, the family factor was seen as the primary source of both neglect and abuse. In addition, among the prevention strategies applied by school administrators, intervention for the family -interviewing and informing- was recommended by only 9 (29%) out of 31 administrators. When the responses to the physical, emotional, and sexual abuse scenarios are examined, it is revealed that the administrators generally realize the abuse but fail to develop an appropriate/whole intervention method. The research results show that school administrators' awareness should be increased. Although administrators have sensitivity towards children, they should be empowered to recognize all types of neglect and abuse and develop appropriate intervention tools.Keywords: assessment child abuse and neglect, child abuse, child neglect, school administrators
Procedia PDF Downloads 1334336 Managing Sunflower Price Risk from a South African Oil Crushing Company’s Perspective
Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg
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The integral role oil-crushing companies play in sunflower oil production is often overlooked to offer high-quality oil to refineries and end consumers. Sunflower oil crushing companies in South Africa are exposed to price fluctuations resulting from the local and international markets. Hedging instruments enable these companies to hedge themselves against unexpected prices spikes and to ensure sustained profitability. A crushing company is a necessary middleman, and as such, these companies have exposure to the purchasing and selling sides of sunflower. Sunflower oil crushing companies purchase sunflower seeds from farmers or agricultural companies that provide storage facilities. The purchasing price is determined by the supply and demand of sunflower seed, both national and international. When the price of sunflower seeds in South Africa is high but still below import parity, then the crush margins realised by these companies are reduced or even negative at times. There are three main products made by sunflower oil crushing companies, oil, meal, and shells. Profits are realised from selling three products, namely, sunflower oil, meal and shells. However, when selling sunflower oil to refineries, sunflower oil crushing companies needs to hedge themselves against a reduction in vegetable oil prices. Hedging oil prices is often done via futures and is subject to specific volume commitments before a hedge position can be taken in. Furthermore, South African oil-crushing companies hedge sunflower oil with international, Over-the-counter contracts as South Africa is a price taker of sunflower oil and not a price maker. As such, South Africa provides a fraction of the world’s sunflower oil supply and, therefore, has minimal influence on price changes. The advantage of hedging using futures ensures that the sunflower crushing company will know the profits they will realise, but the downside is that they can no longer benefit from a price increase. Alternative hedging instruments like options might pose a solution to the opportunity cost does not go missing and that profit margins are locked in at the best possible prices for the oil crushing company. This paper aims to investigate the possibility of employing options alongside futures to simulate different scenarios to determine if options can bridge the opportunity cost gap.Keywords: derivatives, hedging, price risk, sunflower, sunflower oil, South Africa
Procedia PDF Downloads 1654335 Statistical Analysis of Extreme Flow (Regions of Chlef)
Authors: Bouthiba Amina
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The estimation of the statistics bound to the precipitation represents a vast domain, which puts numerous challenges to meteorologists and hydrologists. Sometimes, it is necessary, to approach in value the extreme events for sites where there is little, or no datum, as well as their periods of return. The search for a model of the frequency of the heights of daily rains dresses a big importance in operational hydrology: It establishes a basis for predicting the frequency and intensity of floods by estimating the amount of precipitation in past years. The most known and the most common approach is the statistical approach, It consists in looking for a law of probability that fits best the values observed by the random variable " daily maximal rain " after a comparison of various laws of probability and methods of estimation by means of tests of adequacy. Therefore, a frequent analysis of the annual series of daily maximal rains was realized on the data of 54 pluviometric stations of the pond of high and average. This choice was concerned with five laws usually applied to the study and the analysis of frequent maximal daily rains. The chosen period is from 1970 to 2013. It was of use to the forecast of quantiles. The used laws are the law generalized by extremes to three components, those of the extreme values to two components (Gumbel and log-normal) in two parameters, the law Pearson typifies III and Log-Pearson III in three parameters. In Algeria, Gumbel's law has been used for a long time to estimate the quantiles of maximum flows. However, and we will check and choose the most reliable law.Keywords: return period, extreme flow, statistics laws, Gumbel, estimation
Procedia PDF Downloads 784334 Railway Process Automation to Ensure Human Safety with the Aid of IoT and Image Processing
Authors: K. S. Vedasingha, K. K. M. T. Perera, K. I. Hathurusinghe, H. W. I. Akalanka, Nelum Chathuranga Amarasena, Nalaka R. Dissanayake
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Railways provide the most convenient and economically beneficial mode of transportation, and it has been the most popular transportation method among all. According to the past analyzed data, it reveals a considerable number of accidents which occurred at railways and caused damages to not only precious lives but also to the economy of the countries. There are some major issues which need to be addressed in railways of South Asian countries since they fall under the developing category. The goal of this research is to minimize the influencing aspect of railway level crossing accidents by developing the “railway process automation system”, as there are high-risk areas that are prone to accidents, and safety at these places is of utmost significance. This paper describes the implementation methodology and the success of the study. The main purpose of the system is to ensure human safety by using the Internet of Things (IoT) and image processing techniques. The system can detect the current location of the train and close the railway gate automatically. And it is possible to do the above-mentioned process through a decision-making system by using past data. The specialty is both processes working parallel. As usual, if the system fails to close the railway gate due to technical or a network failure, the proposed system can identify the current location and close the railway gate through a decision-making system, which is a revolutionary feature. The proposed system introduces further two features to reduce the causes of railway accidents. Railway track crack detection and motion detection are those features which play a significant role in reducing the risk of railway accidents. Moreover, the system is capable of detecting rule violations at a level crossing by using sensors. The proposed system is implemented through a prototype, and it is tested with real-world scenarios to gain the above 90% of accuracy.Keywords: crack detection, decision-making, image processing, Internet of Things, motion detection, prototype, sensors
Procedia PDF Downloads 1774333 Simulation Study of Asphaltene Deposition and Solubility of CO2 in the Brine during Cyclic CO2 Injection Process in Unconventional Tight Reservoirs
Authors: Rashid S. Mohammad, Shicheng Zhang, Sun Lu, Syed Jamal-Ud-Din, Xinzhe Zhao
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A compositional reservoir simulation model (CMG-GEM) was used for cyclic CO2 injection process in unconventional tight reservoir. Cyclic CO2 injection is an enhanced oil recovery process consisting of injection, shut-in, and production. The study of cyclic CO2 injection and hydrocarbon recovery in ultra-low permeability reservoirs is mainly a function of rock, fluid, and operational parameters. CMG-GEM was used to study several design parameters of cyclic CO2 injection process to distinguish the parameters with maximum effect on the oil recovery and to comprehend the behavior of cyclic CO2 injection in tight reservoir. On the other hand, permeability reduction induced by asphaltene precipitation is one of the major issues in the oil industry due to its plugging onto the porous media which reduces the oil productivity. In addition to asphaltene deposition, solubility of CO2 in the aquifer is one of the safest and permanent trapping techniques when considering CO2 storage mechanisms in geological formations. However, the effects of the above uncertain parameters on the process of CO2 enhanced oil recovery have not been understood systematically. Hence, it is absolutely necessary to study the most significant parameters which dominate the process. The main objective of this study is to improve techniques for designing cyclic CO2 injection process while considering the effects of asphaltene deposition and solubility of CO2 in the brine in order to prevent asphaltene precipitation, minimize CO2 emission, optimize cyclic CO2 injection, and maximize oil production.Keywords: tight reservoirs, cyclic O₂ injection, asphaltene, solubility, reservoir simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 3864332 A Conceptual Design of Freeze Desalination Using Low Cost Refrigeration
Authors: Parul Sahu
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In recent years, seawater desalination has been emerged as a potential resource to circumvent water scarcity, especially in coastal regions. Among the various methods, thermal evaporation or distillation and membrane operations like Reverse Osmosis (RO) has been exploited at commercial scale. However, the energy cost and maintenance expenses associated with these processes remain high. In this context Freeze Desalination (FD), subjected to the availability of low cost refrigeration, offers an exciting alternative. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) regasification terminals provide an opportunity to utilize the refrigeration available with regasification of LNG. This work presents the conceptualization and development of a process scheme integrating the ice and hydrate based FD to the LNG regasification process. This integration overcomes the high energy demand associated with FD processes by utilizing the refrigeration associated with LNG regasification. An optimal process scheme was obtained by performing process simulation using ASPEN PLUS simulator. The results indicated the new proposed process requires only 1 kWh/m³ of energy with the utilization of maximum refrigeration. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was also performed to study the effect of various process parameters on water recovery and energy consumption for the proposed process. The results show that the energy consumption decreases by 30% with an increase in water recovery from 30% to 60%. However, due to operational limitations associated with ice and hydrate handling in seawater, the water recovery cannot be maximized but optimized. The proposed process can be potentially used to desalinate seawater in integration with LNG regasification terminal.Keywords: freeze desalination, liquefied natural gas regasification, process simulation, refrigeration
Procedia PDF Downloads 1314331 Importance of Remote Sensing and Information Communication Technology to Improve Climate Resilience in Low Land of Ethiopia
Authors: Hasen Keder Edris, Ryuji Matsunaga, Toshi Yamanaka
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The issue of climate change and its impact is a major contemporary global concern. Ethiopia is one of the countries experiencing adverse climate change impact including frequent extreme weather events that are exacerbating drought and water scarcity. Due to this reason, the government of Ethiopia develops a strategic document which focuses on the climate resilience green economy. One of the major components of the strategic framework is designed to improve community adaptation capacity and mitigation of drought. For effective implementation of the strategy, identification of regions relative vulnerability to drought is vital. There is a growing tendency of applying Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing technologies for collecting information on duration and severity of drought by direct measure of the topography as well as an indirect measure of land cover. This study aims to show an application of remote sensing technology and GIS for developing drought vulnerability index by taking lowland of Ethiopia as a case study. In addition, it assesses integrated Information Communication Technology (ICT) potential of Ethiopia lowland and proposes integrated solution. Satellite data is used to detect the beginning of the drought. The severity of drought risk prone areas of livestock keeping pastoral is analyzed through normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and ten years rainfall data. The change from the existing and average SPOT NDVI and vegetation condition index is used to identify the onset of drought and potential risks. Secondary data is used to analyze geographical coverage of mobile and internet usage in the region. For decades, the government of Ethiopia introduced some technologies and approach to overcoming climate change related problems. However, lack of access to information and inadequate technical support for the pastoral area remains a major challenge. In conventional business as usual approach, the lowland pastorals continue facing a number of challenges. The result indicated that 80% of the region face frequent drought occurrence and out of this 60% of pastoral area faces high drought risk. On the other hand, the target area mobile phone and internet coverage is rapidly growing. One of identified ICT solution enabler technology is telecom center which covers 98% of the region. It was possible to identify the frequently affected area and potential drought risk using the NDVI remote-sensing data analyses. We also found that ICT can play an important role in mitigating climate change challenge. Hence, there is a need to strengthen implementation efforts of climate change adaptation through integrated Remote Sensing and web based information dissemination and mobile alert of extreme events.Keywords: climate changes, ICT, pastoral, remote sensing
Procedia PDF Downloads 3154330 Prevalence, Antimicrobial Susceptibility Pattern and Public Health Significance for Staphylococcus aureus of Isolated From Raw Red Meat at Butchery and Abattoir House in Mekelle, Northern Ethiopia
Authors: Haftay Abraha Tadesse
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Background: Staphylococcus is a genus of worldwide distributed bacteria correlated to several infectious of different sites in human and animals. They are among the most important causes of infection that are associated with the consumption of contaminated food. Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the isolates, antimicrobial susceptibility patterns and public health significance for Staphylococcus aureus in raw meat from butchery and abattoir houses of Mekelle, Northern Ethiopia. Methodology: A cross-sectional study was conducted from April to October 2019. Sociodemographic data and public health significance were collected using predesigned questionnaire. The raw meat samples were collected aseptically in the butchery and abattoir houses and transported using ice box to Mekelle University, College of Veterinary Sciences for isolating and identification of Staphylococcus aureus. Antimicrobial susceptibility tests were determined by disc diffusion method. Data obtained were cleaned and entered in to STATA 22.0 and logistic regression model with odds ratio were calculated to assess the association of risk factors with bacterial contamination. P-value < 0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Results: In present study, 88 out of 250 (35.2%) were found to be contamination with Staphylococcus aureus. Among the raw meat specimens to be positivity rate of Staphylococcus aureus were 37.6% (n=47) and (32.8% (n=41), butchery and abattoir houses, respectively. Among the associated risk factories not using gloves reduces risk was found to (AOR=0.222; 95% CI: 0.104-0.473), Strict Separation b/n clean & dirty (AOR= 1.37; 95% CI: 0.66-2.86) and poor habit of hand washing (AOR=1.08; 95%CI: 0.35-3.35) were found to be statistically significant and ha ve associated with Staphylococcus aureus contamination. All isolates thirty sevevn of Staphyloco ccus aureus were checked displayed (100%) sensitive to doxycycline, trimethoprim, gentamicin, sulphamethoxazole, amikacin, CN, Co trimoxazole and nitrofurantoi. whereas the showed resistance of cefotaxime (100%), ampicillin (87.5%), Penicillin (75%), B (75%), and nalidixic acid (50%) from butchery houses. On the other hand, all isolates of Staphylococcus aur eu isolate 100% (n= 10) showed sensitive chloramphenicol, gentamicin and nitrofurantoin whereas the showed 100% resistance of Penicillin, B, AMX, ceftriaxone, ampicillin and cefotaxime from abattoirs houses. The overall multi drug resistance pattern for Staphylococcus aureus were 90% and 100% of butchery and abattoirs houses, respectively. Conclusion: 35.3% Staphylococcus aureus isolated were recovered from the raw meat samples collected from the butchery and abattoirs houses. More has to be done in the developed of hand washing behavior, and availability of safe water in the butchery houses to reduce burden of bacterial contamination. The results of the present finding highlight the need to implement protective measures against the levels of food contamination and alternative drug options. The development of antimicrobial resistance is nearly always as a result of repeated therapeutic and/or indiscriminate use of them. Regular antimicrobial sensitivity testing helps to select effective antibiotics and to reduce the problems of drug resistance development towards commonly used antibiotics. Key words: abattoir houses, antimicrobial resistance, butchery houses, Ethiopia,Keywords: abattoir houses, antimicrobial resistance, butchery houses, Ethiopia, staphylococcus aureuse, MDR
Procedia PDF Downloads 744329 Simulation of Performance and Layout Optimization of Solar Collectors with AVR Microcontroller to Achieve Desired Conditions
Authors: Mohsen Azarmjoo, Navid Sharifi, Zahra Alikhani Koopaei
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This article aims to conserve energy and optimize the performance of solar water heaters using modern modeling systems. In this study, a large-scale solar water heater is modeled using an AVR microcontroller, which is a digital processor from the AVR microcontroller family. This mechatronic system will be used to analyze the performance and design of solar collectors, with the ultimate goal of improving the efficiency of the system being used. The findings of this research provide insights into optimizing the performance of solar water heaters. By manipulating the arrangement of solar panels and controlling the water flow through them using the AVR microcontroller, researchers can identify the optimal configurations and operational protocols to achieve the desired temperature and flow conditions. These findings can contribute to the development of more efficient and sustainable heating and cooling systems. This article investigates the optimization of solar water heater performance. It examines the impact of solar panel layout on system efficiency and explores methods of controlling water flow to achieve the desired temperature and flow conditions. The results of this research contribute to the development of more sustainable heating and cooling systems that rely on renewable energy sources.Keywords: energy conservation, solar water heaters, solar cooling, simulation, mechatronics
Procedia PDF Downloads 844328 Business Marketing Researches and Analysis Effect on Production
Authors: Mirna John Shawky Demian
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Internal marketing changed into proposed in the 1970s. The idea has continually been modified over the last forty years. This study discussed the subsequent troubles: the definition and implication of internal advertising, the improvement of its development, and the evolution of its theoretical version. Moreover, the study systematically organized the strategies of the inner advertising and marketing principles adopted in an organization and the way they were positioned in exercise. Also, in contrast, the empirical research focuses on how the existent theories prompted the essential variables of internal marketing. The results of this are predicted to serve as references for future exploration of the boundary and research aiming at how internal advertising and marketing are applied to one-of-a-kind styles of organizations. Information technology (IT) has prevailed over all capabilities of strategic and operational control. The internet has increasingly grown to be a famous medium for advertising and marketing. This paper examines the potential of the internet for tourism marketing. To acquire this, the paper examines the characteristics of tourism advertising and examines the application of the Internet in tourism advertising. It's far argued that using the internet for tourism advertising will now not only reach a wide target audience and reduce the price of transactions (with the aid of traditional strategies utilized by journey agents in instances past) but will even alleviate the problems of identity, authentication and affirmation of travels/package deal excursions by way of travelers as well as advertising of tourism enterprises.Keywords: direct marketing, mobile phones mobile marketing, sms advertising, marketing sponsorship, marketing communication theories, marketing communication tools
Procedia PDF Downloads 54327 Enhancing Information Technologies with AI: Unlocking Efficiency, Scalability, and Innovation
Authors: Abdal-Hafeez Alhussein
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Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a transformative force in the field of information technologies, reshaping how data is processed, analyzed, and utilized across various domains. This paper explores the multifaceted applications of AI within information technology, focusing on three key areas: automation, scalability, and data-driven decision-making. We delve into how AI-powered automation is optimizing operational efficiency in IT infrastructures, from automated network management to self-healing systems that reduce downtime and enhance performance. Scalability, another critical aspect, is addressed through AI’s role in cloud computing and distributed systems, enabling the seamless handling of increasing data loads and user demands. Additionally, the paper highlights the use of AI in cybersecurity, where real-time threat detection and adaptive response mechanisms significantly improve resilience against sophisticated cyberattacks. In the realm of data analytics, AI models—especially machine learning and natural language processing—are driving innovation by enabling more precise predictions, automated insights extraction, and enhanced user experiences. The paper concludes with a discussion on the ethical implications of AI in information technologies, underscoring the importance of transparency, fairness, and responsible AI use. It also offers insights into future trends, emphasizing the potential of AI to further revolutionize the IT landscape by integrating with emerging technologies like quantum computing and IoT.Keywords: artificial intelligence, information technology, automation, scalability
Procedia PDF Downloads 174326 Epidemiology and Risk Factors of Injury and Stress Fractures in Male and Female Runners
Authors: Balazs Patczai, Katalin Gocze, Gabriella Kiss, Dorottya Szabo, Tibor Mintal
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Introduction: Running has become increasingly popular on a global scale in the past decades. Amateur athletes are taking their sport to a new level in an attempt to surpass their performance goals. The aim of our study was to assess the musculoskeletal condition of amateur runners and the prevalence of injuries with a special focus on stress fracture risk. Methods: The cross sectional analysis included ankle mobility, hamstring and lower back flexibility, the use of Renne’s test for iliotibial band syndrome, functional tests for trunk and rotary stability, and measurements of bone density. Data was collected at 2 major half-marathon events in Hungary. Results: Participants (n=134) mean age was 41.76±8.57 years (males: 40.67±8.83, females: 42.08±8.56). Measures of hamstring and lower back flexibility fell into the category of good for both genders (males: 7.13±6.83cm, females: 10.17±6.67cm). No side asymmetry nor gender differences were characteristic in the case of ankle mobility. Trunk stability was significantly better for males than in females (p=0.004). Markers of bone health were in the low normal range for females and were significantly better for males (T-score: p=0.003, T-ratio: p=0.014, Z-score: p=0.034, Z-ratio: p=0.011). 5.2% of females had a previous stress fracture and 24.1% experienced irregular menstrual cycles during the past year. As for the knowledge on the possible association of energy deficiency, menstrual disturbances and their effect on bone health, Only 8.6% of females have heard of the female athlete triad either during their studies or from a health professional. Discussion: The overall musculoskeletal state was satisfactory for both genders both physically and functionally. More attention and effort should be placed on primary and secondary prevention of amateur runners. Very few active women are well informed about the effects of low energy availability and menstrual dysfunction and the negative impact these have on bone health.Keywords: bone health, flexibility, running, stress fracture
Procedia PDF Downloads 1254325 Evidence Based Dietary Pattern in South Asian Patients: Setting Goals
Authors: Ananya Pappu, Sneha Mishra
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Introduction: The South Asian population experiences unique health challenges that predisposes this demographic to cardiometabolic diseases at lower BMIs. South Asians may therefore benefit from recommendations specific to their cultural needs. Here, we focus on current BMI guidelines for Asians with a discussion of South Asian dietary practices and culturally tailored interventions. By integrating traditional dietary practices with modern nutritional recommendations, this manuscript aims to highlight effective strategies to improving health outcomes among South Asians. Background: The South Asian community, including individuals from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, experiences high rates of cardiovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes, and strokes. Notably, the prevalence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease among Asians is elevated at BMIs below the WHO's standard overweight threshold. As it stands, a BMI of 25-30 kg/m² is considered overweight in non-Asians, while this cutoff is reduced to 23-27.4 kg/m² in Asians. This discrepancy can be attributed to studies which have shown different associations between BMI and health risks in Asians compared to other populations. Given these significant challenges, optimizing lifestyle management for cardiometabolic risk factors is crucial. Tailored interventions that consider cultural context seem to be the best approach for ensuring the success of both dietary and physical activity interventions in South Asian patients. Adopting a whole food, plant-based diet (WFPD) is one such strategy. The WFPD suggests that half of one meal should consist of non-starchy vegetables. In the South Asian diet, this includes traditional vegetables such as okra, tindora, eggplant, and leafy greens including amaranth, collards, chard, and mustards. A quarter of the meal should include plant-based protein sources like cooked beans, lentils, and paneer, with the remaining quarter comprising healthy grains or starches such as whole wheat breads, millets, tapioca, and barley. Adherence to the WFPD has been shown to improve cardiometabolic risk factors including weight, BMI, total cholesterol, HbA1c, and reduces the risk of developing non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Another approach to improving dietary habits is timing meals. Many of the major cultures and religions in the Indian subcontinent incorporate religious fasting. Time-restricted eating (TRE), also known as intermittent fasting, is a practice akin to traditional fasting, which involves consuming all daily calories within a specific window. TRE has been shown to improve insulin resistance in prediabetic and diabetic patients. Common regimens include completing all meals within an 8-hour window, consuming a low-calorie diet every other day, and the 5:2 diet, which involves fasting twice weekly. These fasting practices align with the natural circadian rhythm, potentially enhancing metabolic health and reducing obesity and diabetes risks. Conclusion: South Asians develop cardiometabolic disease at lower BMIs; hence, it is important to counsel patients about lifestyle interventions that decrease their risk. Traditional South Asian diets can be made more nutrient-rich by incorporating vegetables, plant proteins like lentils and beans, and substituting refined grains for whole grains. Ultimately, the best diet is one to which a patient can adhere. It is therefore important to find a regimen that aligns with a patient’s cultural and traditional food practices.Keywords: BMI, diet, obesity, South Asian, time-restricted eating
Procedia PDF Downloads 454324 Continuous Improvement as an Organizational Capability in the Industry 4.0 Era
Authors: Lodgaard Eirin, Myklebust Odd, Eleftheriadis Ragnhild
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Continuous improvement is becoming increasingly a prerequisite for manufacturing companies to remain competitive in a global market. In addition, future survival and success will depend on the ability to manage the forthcoming digitalization transformation in the industry 4.0 era. Industry 4.0 promises substantially increased operational effectiveness, were all equipment are equipped with integrated processing and communication capabilities. Subsequently, the interplay of human and technology will evolve and influence the range of worker tasks and demands. Taking into account these changes, the concept of continuous improvement must evolve accordingly. Based on a case study from manufacturing industry, the purpose of this paper is to point out what the concept of continuous improvement will meet and has to take into considering when entering the 4th industrial revolution. In the past, continuous improvement has the focus on a culture of sustained improvement targeting the elimination of waste in all systems and processes of an organization by involving everyone. Today, it has to be evolved into the forthcoming digital transformation and the increased interplay of human and digital communication system to reach its full potential. One main findings of this study, is how digital communication systems will act as an enabler to strengthen the continuous improvement process, by moving from collaboration within individual teams to interconnection of teams along the product value chain. For academics and practitioners, it will help them to identify and prioritize their steps towards an industry 4.0 implementation integrated with focus on continuous improvement.Keywords: continuous improvement, digital communication system, human-machine-interaction, industry 4.0, team perfomance
Procedia PDF Downloads 2044323 Surprise Fraudsters Before They Surprise You: A South African Telecommunications Case Study
Authors: Ansoné Human, Nantes Kirsten, Tanja Verster, Willem D. Schutte
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Every year the telecommunications industry suffers huge losses due to fraud. Mobile fraud, or generally, telecommunications fraud is the utilisation of telecommunication products or services to acquire money illegally from or failing to pay a telecommunication company. A South African telecommunication operator developed two internal fraud scorecards to mitigate future risks of application fraud events. The scorecards aim to predict the likelihood of an application being fraudulent and surprise fraudsters before they surprise the telecommunication operator by identifying fraud at the time of application. The scorecards are utilised in the vetting process to evaluate the applicant in terms of the fraud risk the applicant would present to the telecommunication operator. Telecommunication providers can utilise these scorecards to profile customers, as well as isolate fraudulent and/or high-risk applicants. We provide the complete methodology utilised in the development of the scorecards. Furthermore, a Determination and Discrimination (DD) ratio is provided in the methodology to select the most influential variables from a group of related variables. Throughout the development of these scorecards, the following was revealed regarding fraudulent cases and fraudster behaviour within the telecommunications industry: Fraudsters typically target high-value handsets. Furthermore, debit order dates scheduled for the end of the month have the highest fraud probability. The fraudsters target specific stores. Applicants who acquire an expensive package and receive a medium-income, as well as applicants who obtain an expensive package and receive a high income, have higher fraud percentages. If one month prior to application, the status of an account is already in arrears (two months or more), the applicant has a high probability of fraud. The applicants with the highest average spend on calls have a higher probability of fraud. If the amount collected changes from month to month, the likelihood of fraud is higher. Lastly, young and middle-aged applicants have an increased probability of being targeted by fraudsters than other ages.Keywords: application fraud scorecard, predictive modeling, regression, telecommunications
Procedia PDF Downloads 1204322 Framework for Aligning Supply Chain Strategies and Organizational Strategies in an SOE Environment
Authors: R. Setino, I. M. Ambe, J. A Badenhorst-Weiss
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The South African government supply chain management system is not adequately implemented in State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). There are weaknesses in the SOEs SCM enablers, strategies and policies. In addition, top management of SOEs still do not see SCM as strategic enough to deserve their attention, and therefore, there is very little support from top management, thus making it even difficult for SCM practitioners to execute their day to day functions, let alone delivering the letter and spirit of the relevant legislations. Supply chain strategies lack buy in from the top, and as a result senior SCM practitioners has not been involved in the corporate strategy. This has resulted in supply chain and corporate strategies being misaligned. Due to service delivery backlog, high level of corruption and continuous strikes across the country for better services it is inevitable that government leaders be more strategic about how South Africa can use SCM as a tool to improve service delivery. Consequently, there is a need to close the gap between the strategic level dealt by top management and the application of operational SCM concepts: the use of SCM concepts and, therefore, supply chain strategies – should be aligned with the corporate and business strategies in order to ensure the achievement of top level business objectives. This paper aims to explore supply chain practices in State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). The paper based on a conceptual review provides the status, trends and development and suggests a framework for aligning supply chain strategies and organizational strategies in an SOE environment.Keywords: alignment, strategies, state owned enterprises, supply chain management, South Africa
Procedia PDF Downloads 4214321 Removal of Nickel Ions from Industrial Effluents by Batch and Column Experiments: A Comparison of Activated Carbon with Pinus Roxburgii Saw Dust
Authors: Sardar Khana, Zar Ali Khana
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Rapid industrial development and urbanization contribute a lot to wastewater discharge. The wastewater enters into natural aquatic ecosystems from industrial activities and considers as one of the main sources of water pollution. Discharge of effluents loaded with heavy metals into the surrounding environment has become a key issue regarding human health risk, environment, and food chain contamination. Nickel causes fatigue, cancer, headache, heart problems, skin diseases (Nickel Itch), and respiratory disorders. Nickel compounds such as Nickel Sulfide and Nickel oxides in industrial environment, if inhaled, have an association with an increased risk of lung cancer. Therefore the removal of Nickel from effluents before discharge is necessary. Removal of Nickel by low-cost biosorbents is an efficient method. This study was aimed to investigate the efficiency of activated carbon and Pinusroxburgiisaw dust for the removal of Nickel from industrial effluents using commercial Activated Carbon, and raw P.roxburgii saw dust. Batch and column adsorption experiments were conducted for the removal of Nickel. The study conducted indicates that removal of Nickel greatly dependent on pH, contact time, Nickel concentration, and adsorbent dose. Maximum removal occurred at pH 9, contact time of 600 min, and adsorbent dose of 1 g/100 mL. The highest removal was 99.62% and 92.39% (pH based), 99.76% and 99.9% (dose based), 99.80% and 100% (agitation time), 92% and 72.40% (Ni Conc. based) for P.roxburgii saw dust and activated Carbon, respectively. Similarly, the Ni removal in column adsorption was 99.77% and 99.99% (bed height based), 99.80% and 99.99% (Concentration based), 99.98%, and 99.81% (flow rate based) during column studies for Nickel using P.Roxburgiisaw dust and activated carbon, respectively. Results were compared with Freundlich isotherm model, which showed “r2” values of 0.9424 (Activated carbon) and 0.979 (P.RoxburgiiSaw Dust). While Langmuir isotherm model values were 0.9285 (Activated carbon) and 0.9999 (P.RoxburgiiSaw Dust), the experimental results were fitted to both the models. But the results were in close agreement with Langmuir isotherm model.Keywords: nickel removal, batch, and column, activated carbon, saw dust, plant uptake
Procedia PDF Downloads 1304320 Method to Create Signed Word - Application in Teaching and Learning Vietnamese Sign Language
Authors: Nguyen Thi Kim Thoa
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Vietnam currently has about two million five hundred deaf/hard of hearing people. Although the issue of Vietnamese Sign Language (VSL) education has received attention from the State, there are still many issues that need to be resolved, such as policies, teacher training in both knowledge and teaching methods, education programs, and textbook compilation. Furthermore, the issue of research on VSL has not yet attracted the attention of linguists. Using the quantitative description method, the article will analyze, synthesize, and compare to find methods to create signed words in VSL, such as based on external shape characteristics, operational characteristics, operating methods, and basic meanings, from which we can see the special nature of signed words, the division of word types and the morphological meaning of creating new words through sign methods. From the results of this research, the aspect of ‘visual culture’ will be clarified in Vietnamese Deaf Culture. Through that, we also develop a number of vocabulary teaching methods (such as teaching vocabulary through a group of methods of forming signed words, teaching vocabulary using mind maps, and teaching vocabulary through culture...), with the aim of further improving the effectiveness of teaching and learning VSL in Vietnam. The research results also provide deaf people in Vietnam with a scientific and effective method of learning vocabulary, helping them quickly integrate into the community. The article will be a useful reference for linguists who want to research VSL.Keywords: Vietnamese sign language (VSL), signed word, teaching, method
Procedia PDF Downloads 364319 The Relationship among Exercise Participation, Job Stress and Job Satisfaction: A Study on Food Service Employees in Taiwan
Authors: Jui-Hsiu Chang
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As an increasing number of restaurants are growing, the demand for man force in the food service industry is dramatically increasing as well. However, food service workers often complete the heavy workload, infrequent breaks, long hours and shifts. With the overwhelming workload, many workers have experienced high injury rates. As a result, the restaurant industry reports a higher employee turnover rate compare to other service industries in Taiwan. Restaurant managers are seeing ways to retain good employees in order to provide good quality service for daily operation. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship among exercise participation, job stress and job satisfaction on the food service employees. In addition, to examine how the job stress affected their job satisfaction. A survey using a self-reported questionnaire was conducted to collect data, and 269 questionnaires were collected for data analysis. The obtained materials were analyzed using descriptive statistic, independent t-test, one-way ANOVA, linear regression analysis. The results show that 1. Job stress had a significantly negative influence on employees’ job satisfaction. 2. Exercise participation had significantly positive influence on employees’ job satisfaction. 3. Job stress and job satisfaction varied among the groups of respondent with different level of exercise involvement. Furthermore, the practical implications were proposed for the food service company management when developing daily operational strategies.Keywords: exercise participation, food service employees, job satisfaction, job stress
Procedia PDF Downloads 2684318 Optimal Geothermal Borehole Design Guided By Dynamic Modeling
Authors: Hongshan Guo
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Ground-source heat pumps provide stable and reliable heating and cooling when designed properly. The confounding effect of the borehole depth for a GSHP system, however, is rarely taken into account for any optimization: the determination of the borehole depth usually comes prior to the selection of corresponding system components and thereafter any optimization of the GSHP system. The depth of the borehole is important to any GSHP system because the shallower the borehole, the larger the fluctuation of temperature of the near-borehole soil temperature. This could lead to fluctuations of the coefficient of performance (COP) for the GSHP system in the long term when the heating/cooling demand is large. Yet the deeper the boreholes are drilled, the more the drilling cost and the operational expenses for the circulation. A controller that reads different building load profiles, optimizing for the smallest costs and temperature fluctuation at the borehole wall, eventually providing borehole depth as the output is developed. Due to the nature of the nonlinear dynamic nature of the GSHP system, it was found that between conventional optimal controller problem and model predictive control problem, the latter was found to be more feasible due to a possible history of both the trajectory during the iteration as well as the final output could be computed and compared against. Aside from a few scenarios of different weighting factors, the resulting system costs were verified with literature and reports and were found to be relatively accurate, while the temperature fluctuation at the borehole wall was also found to be within acceptable range. It was therefore determined that the MPC is adequate to optimize for the investment as well as the system performance for various outputs.Keywords: geothermal borehole, MPC, dynamic modeling, simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 2874317 Testing and Validation Stochastic Models in Epidemiology
Authors: Snigdha Sahai, Devaki Chikkavenkatappa Yellappa
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This study outlines approaches for testing and validating stochastic models used in epidemiology, focusing on the integration and functional testing of simulation code. It details methods for combining simple functions into comprehensive simulations, distinguishing between deterministic and stochastic components, and applying tests to ensure robustness. Techniques include isolating stochastic elements, utilizing large sample sizes for validation, and handling special cases. Practical examples are provided using R code to demonstrate integration testing, handling of incorrect inputs, and special cases. The study emphasizes the importance of both functional and defensive programming to enhance code reliability and user-friendliness.Keywords: computational epidemiology, epidemiology, public health, infectious disease modeling, statistical analysis, health data analysis, disease transmission dynamics, predictive modeling in health, population health modeling, quantitative public health, random sampling simulations, randomized numerical analysis, simulation-based analysis, variance-based simulations, algorithmic disease simulation, computational public health strategies, epidemiological surveillance, disease pattern analysis, epidemic risk assessment, population-based health strategies, preventive healthcare models, infection dynamics in populations, contagion spread prediction models, survival analysis techniques, epidemiological data mining, host-pathogen interaction models, risk assessment algorithms for disease spread, decision-support systems in epidemiology, macro-level health impact simulations, socioeconomic determinants in disease spread, data-driven decision making in public health, quantitative impact assessment of health policies, biostatistical methods in population health, probability-driven health outcome predictions
Procedia PDF Downloads 84316 Reconstructing Calvarial Bone Lesions Using PHBV Scaffolds and Cord Blood Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Rat
Authors: Hamed Hosseinkazemi, Esmaeil Biazar
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For tissue engineering of bone, anatomical and operational reconstructions of damaged tissue seem to be vital. This is done via reconstruction of bone and appropriate biological joint with bone tissues of damaged areas. In this study the condition of biodegradable bed Nanofibrous PHBV and USSC cells were used to accelerate bone repair of damaged area. Hollow nanofabrication scaffold of damageable life was designed as PHBV by electrospinning and via determining the best factors such as the kind and amount of solvent, specific volume and rate. The separation of osseous tissue infiltration and evaluating its nature by flow cytometrocical analysis was done. Animal test including USSC as well as PHBV condition in the damaged bone was done in the rat. After 8 weeks the implanted area was analyzed using CT scan and was sent to histopathology ward. Finally, the rate and quality of reconstruction were determined after H and E coloring. Histomorphic analysis indicated a statistically significant difference between the experimental group of PHBV, USSC+PHBV and control group. Besides, the histopathologic analysis showed that bone reconstruction rate was high in the area containing USSC and PHBV, compared with area having PHBV and control group and consequently the reconstruction quality of bones and the relationship between the new bone tissues and surrounding bone tissues were high too. Using PHBR scaffold and USSC together could be useful in the amending of wide range of bone lesion.Keywords: bone lesion, nanofibrous PHBV, stem cells, umbilical cord blood
Procedia PDF Downloads 3184315 Study of Radiological and Chemical Effects of Uranium in Ground Water of SW and NE Punjab, India
Authors: Komal Saini, S. K. Sahoo, B. S. Bajwa
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The Laser Fluorimetery Technique has been used for the microanalysis of uranium content in water samples collected from different sources like the hand pumps, tube wells in the drinking water samples of SW & NE Punjab, India. The geographic location of the study region in NE Punjab is between latitude 31.21º- 32.05º N and longitude 75.60º-76.14º E and for SW Punjab is between latitude 29.66º-30.48º N and longitude 74.69º-75.54º E. The purpose of this study was mainly to investigate the uranium concentration levels of ground water being used for drinking purposes and to determine its health effects, if any, to the local population of these regions. In the present study 131 samples of drinking water collected from different villages of SW and 95 samples from NE, Punjab state, India have been analyzed for chemical and radiological toxicity. In the present investigation, uranium content in water samples of SW Punjab ranges from 0.13 to 908 μgL−1 with an average of 82.1 μgL−1 whereas in samples collected from NE- Punjab, it ranges from 0 to 28.2 μgL−1 with an average of 4.84 μgL−1. Thus, revealing that in the SW- Punjab 54 % of drinking water samples have uranium concentration higher than international recommended limit of 30 µgl-1 (WHO, 2011) while 35 % of samples exceeds the threshold of 60 µgl-1 recommended by our national regulatory authority of Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB), Department of Atomic Energy, India, 2004. On the other hand in the NE-Punjab region, none of the observed water sample has uranium content above the national/international recommendations. The observed radiological risk in terms of excess cancer risk ranges from 3.64x10-7 to 2.54x10-3 for SW-Punjab, whereas for NE region it ranges from 0 to 7.89x10-5. The chemical toxic effect in terms of Life-time average Daily Dose (LDD) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) have also been calculated. The LDD for SW-Punjab varies from 0.0098 to 68.46 with an average of 6.18 µg/ kg/day whereas for NE region it varies from 0 to 2.13 with average 0.365 µg/ kg/day, thus indicating presence of chemical toxicity in SW Punjab as 35% of the observed samples in the SW Punjab are above the recommendation limit of 4.53 µg/ kg/day given by AERB for 60 µgl-1 of uranium. Maximum & Minimum values for hazard quotient for SW Punjab is 0.002 & 15.11 with average 1.36 which is considerably high as compared to safe limit i.e. 1. But for NE Punjab HQ varies from 0 to 0.47. The possible sources of high uranium observed in the SW- Punjab will also be discussed.Keywords: uranium, groundwater, radiological and chemical toxicity, Punjab, India
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