Search results for: predictive validity

Authors: Vinko Lešić, Mario Vašak, Anita Martinčević, Marko Gulin, Antonio Starčić, Hrvoje Novak

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With 40% of total world energy consumption, building systems are developing into technically complex large energy consumers suitable for application of sophisticated power management approaches to largely increase the energy efficiency and even make them active energy market participants. Centralized control system of building heating and cooling managed by economically-optimal model predictive control shows promising results with estimated 30% of energy efficiency increase. The research is focused on implementation of such a method on a case study performed on two floors of our faculty building with corresponding sensors wireless data acquisition, remote heating/cooling units and central climate controller. Building walls are mathematically modeled with corresponding material types, surface shapes and sizes. Models are then exploited to predict thermal characteristics and changes in different building zones. Exterior influences such as environmental conditions and weather forecast, people behavior and comfort demands are all taken into account for deriving price-optimal climate control. Finally, a DC microgrid with photovoltaics, wind turbine, supercapacitor, batteries and fuel cell stacks is added to make the building a unit capable of active participation in a price-varying energy market. Computational burden of applying model predictive control on such a complex system is relaxed through a hierarchical decomposition of the microgrid and climate control, where the former is designed as higher hierarchical level with pre-calculated price-optimal power flows control, and latter is designed as lower level control responsible to ensure thermal comfort and exploit the optimal supply conditions enabled by microgrid energy flows management. Such an approach is expected to enable the inclusion of more complex building subsystems into consideration in order to further increase the energy efficiency.

Keywords: price-optimal building climate control, Microgrid power flow optimisation, hierarchical model predictive control, energy efficient buildings, energy market participation

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Authors: Chua Bee Seok, Shamsul Amri Baharuddin, Ferlis Bahari, Jasmine Adela Mutang, Lailawati Madlan, Rosnah Ismail, Asong Joseph

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Malaysia is a country famously known for its multiple unique cultural and ethnic diversities. Despite the diversity of culture, customs and beliefs, respectively, Malaysia still be able to stand as a harmonious country. However, if there is an attitude of stereotypes, prejudice and discrimination among ethnic, it may seriously affect the solidarity between people in Malaysia. Thus, this study focuses on constructing a scale measuring the Malaysian experience, strategy and effect of ethnic discrimination. To develop a quantitative measure on ethnic discrimination directed against Malaysian, a three-step process is proposed: Exploratory factor analysis, validity analysis, and internal consistency reliability analysis. Results, limitations, and implications of the study are discussed.

Keywords: test development, Malaysian multi-ethnic discrimination scale, exploratory factor analysis, validity, multi-ethnic, reliability, psychometrics

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Authors: Matteo Calabrese, Martin Cimmino, Dimos Kapetis, Martina Manfrin, Donato Concilio, Giuseppe Toscano, Giovanni Ciandrini, Giancarlo Paccapeli, Gianluca Giarratana, Marco Siciliano, Andrea Forlani, Alberto Carrotta

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In this paper we describe a machine learning methodology for Predictive Maintenance (PdM) applied on woodworking industrial machines. PdM is a prominent strategy consisting of all the operational techniques and actions required to ensure machine availability and to prevent a machine-down failure. One of the challenges with PdM approach is to design and develop of an embedded smart system to enable the health status of the machine. The proposed approach allows screening simultaneously multiple connected machines, thus providing real-time monitoring that can be adopted with maintenance management. This is achieved by applying temporal feature engineering techniques and training an ensemble of classification algorithms to predict Remaining Useful Lifetime of woodworking machines. The effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by testing an independent sample of additional woodworking machines without presenting machine down event.

Keywords: predictive maintenance, machine learning, connected machines, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Chang-Jen Lan

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Current Level of Service (LOS) index adopted in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for signalized intersections on surface streets is based on the intersection average delay. The delay thresholds for defining LOS grades are subjective and is unrelated to critical traffic condition. For example, an intersection delay of 80 sec per vehicle for failing LOS grade F does not necessarily correspond to the intersection capacity. Also, a specific measure of average delay may result from delay minimization, delay equality, or other meaningful optimization criteria. To that end, a reliability version of the intersection critical degree of saturation (v/c) as the LOS index is introduced. Traditionally, the level of saturation at a signalized intersection is defined as the ratio of critical volume sum (per lane) to the average saturation flow (per lane) during all available effective green time within a cycle. The critical sum is the sum of the maximal conflicting movement-pair volumes in northbound-southbound and eastbound/westbound right of ways. In this study, both movement volume and saturation flow are assumed log-normal distributions. Because, when the conditions of central limit theorem obtain, multiplication of the independent, positive random variables tends to result in a log-normal distributed outcome in the limit, the critical degree of saturation is expected to be a log-normal distribution as well. Derivation of the risk index predictive limits is complex due to the maximum and absolute value operators, as well as the ratio of random variables. A fairly accurate functional form for the predictive limit at a user-specified significant level is yielded. The predictive limit is then compared with the designated LOS thresholds for the intersection critical degree of saturation (denoted as X

Keywords: reliability analysis, level of service, intersection critical degree of saturation, risk based index

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Authors: Ma. Roxanne Fernandez, Josie Athens, Balsalobre-Fernandez, Masayoshi Kubo, Kim Hébert-Losier

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Objectives: The calf raise test (CRT) is used in rehabilitation and sports medicine to evaluate calf muscle function. For testing, individuals stand on one leg and go up on their toes and back down to volitional fatigue. The newly developed Calf Raise application (CRapp) for iOS uses computer-vision algorithms enabling objective measurement of CRT outcomes. We aimed to validate the CRapp by examining its concurrent validity and agreement levels against laboratory-based equipment and establishing its intra- and inter-rater reliability. Methods: CRT outcomes (i.e., repetitions, positive work, total height, peak height, fatigue index, and peak power) were assessed in thirteen healthy individuals (6 males, 7 females) on three occasions and both legs using the CRapp, 3D motion capture, and force plate technologies simultaneously. Data were extracted from two markers: one placed immediately below the lateral malleolus and another on the heel. Concurrent validity and agreement measures were determined using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC₃,ₖ), typical errors expressed as coefficient of variations (CV), and Bland-Altman methods to assess biases and precision. Reliability was assessed using ICC3,1 and CV values. Results: Validity of CRapp outcomes was good to excellent across measures for both markers (mean ICC ≥0.878), with precision plots showing good agreement and precision. CV ranged from 0% (repetitions) to 33.3% (fatigue index) and were, on average better for the lateral malleolus marker. Additionally, inter- and intra-rater reliability were excellent (mean ICC ≥0.949, CV ≤5.6%). Conclusion: These results confirm the CRapp is valid and reliable within and between users for measuring CRT outcomes in healthy adults. The CRapp provides a tool to objectivise CRT outcomes in research and practice, aligning with recent advances in mobile technologies and their increased use in healthcare.

Keywords: calf raise test, mobile application, validity, reliability

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Authors: Duncan Oteki, Andebut Yeneneh, Daba Gedafa, Nabil Suleiman

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Most agencies lack the equipment required to measure the dynamic modulus (|E*|) of asphalt mixtures, necessitating the need to use predictive models. This study compared measured |E*| values for nine North Dakota asphalt mixes using the original Witczak, modified Witczak, and Hirsch models. The influence of temperature on the |E*| models was investigated, and Pavement ME simulations were conducted using measured |E*| and predictions from the most accurate |E*| model. The results revealed that the original Witczak model yielded the lowest Se/Sy and highest R² values, indicating the lowest bias and highest accuracy, while the poorest overall performance was exhibited by the Hirsch model. Using predicted |E*| as inputs in the Pavement ME generated conservative distress predictions compared to using measured |E*|. The original Witczak model was recommended for predicting |E*| for low-reliability pavements in North Dakota.

Keywords: asphalt mixture, binder, dynamic modulus, MEPDG, pavement ME, performance, prediction

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Authors: Trisha Malhotra

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Sentiment analysis is a recent field of study that computationally assesses the emotional nature of a body of text. To assess its test-validity, sentiment analysis was carried out on the emotional corpus of text from a personal 15-day mood diary. Self-reported mood scores varied more or less accurately with daily mood evaluation score given by the software. On further assessment, it was found that while sentiment analysis was good at assessing ‘global’ mood, it was not able to ‘locally’ identify and differentially score synonyms of various emotional words. It is further critiqued for treating the intensity of an emotion as universal across cultures. Finally, the software is shown not to account for emotional complexity in sentences by treating emotions as strictly positive or negative. Hence, it is posited that a better output could be two (positive and negative) affect scores for the same body of text.

Keywords: analysis, data, diary, emotions, mood, sentiment

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Authors: Chua Si Wen Alicia, Marcus Goh Tian Xi, Eunice Gan Ghee Wu, Helen Bound, Lee Liang Ying, Albert Lee

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In a world full of rapid changes, people often need a set of skills to help them navigate an ever-changing workscape. These skills, often known as “future-oriented skills,” include learning to learn, critical thinking, understanding multiple perspectives, and knowledge creation. Future-oriented skills are typically assumed to be domain-general, applicable to multiple domains, and can be cultivated through a learning approach called Dialogical Inquiry. Dialogical Inquiry is known for its benefits of making sense of multiple perspectives, encouraging critical thinking, and developing learner’s capability to learn. However, it currently exists as a quantitative tool, which makes it hard to track and compare learning processes over time. With these concerns, the present research aimed to develop and validate a quantitative tool for the Map of Dialogical Inquiry, focusing Imagining aspect of learning. The Imagining aspect four dimensions: 1) speculative/ look for alternatives, 2) risk taking/ break rules, 3) create/ design, and 4) vision/ imagine. To do so, an exploratory literature review was conducted to better understand the dimensions of Imagining. This included deep-diving into the history of the creation of the Map of Dialogical Inquiry and a review on how “Imagining” has been conceptually defined in the field of social psychology, education, and beyond. Then, we synthesised and validated scales. These scales measured the dimension of Imagination and related concepts like creativity, divergent thinking regulatory focus, and instrumental risk. Thereafter, items were adapted from the aforementioned procured scales to form items that would contribute to the preliminary version of the Imagining Scale. For scale validation, 250 participants were recruited. A Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) sought to establish dimensionality of the Imagining Scale with an iterative procedure in item removal. Reliability and validity of the scale’s dimensions were sought through measurements of Cronbach’s alpha, convergent validity, and discriminant validity. While CFA found that the distinction of Imagining’s four dimensions could not be validated, the scale was able to establish high reliability with a Cronbach alpha of .96. In addition, the convergent validity of the Imagining scale was established. A lack of strong discriminant validity may point to overlaps with other components of the Dialogical Map as a measure of learning. Thus, a holistic approach to forming the tool – encompassing all eight different components may be preferable.

Keywords: learning, education, imagining, pedagogy, dialogical teaching

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Authors: Najib K. Dankadai, Ahmad 'Athif Mohd Faudzi, Khairuddin Osman, Muhammad Rusydi Muhammad Razif, IIi Najaa Aimi Mohd Nordin

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Researches in soft actuators are now growing rapidly because of their adequacy to be applied in sectors like medical, agriculture, biological and welfare. This paper presents system identification (SI) and control of the force generated by a two chambers pneumatic soft actuator (PSA). A force mathematical model for the actuator was identified experimentally using data acquisition card and MATLAB SI toolbox. Two control techniques; a predictive functional control (PFC) and conventional proportional integral and derivative (PID) schemes are proposed and compared based on the identified model for the soft actuator flexible mechanism. Results of this study showed that both of the proposed controllers ensure accurate tracking when the closed loop system was tested with the step, sinusoidal and multi step reference input through MATLAB simulation although the PFC provides a better response than the PID.

Keywords: predictive functional control (PFC), proportional integral and derivative (PID), soft actuator, system identification

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Authors: D. Velayadum, P. Sthandiwe , N. Maharaj, T. Munien, S. Ndamase, G. Zulu, S. Xulu, F. Oosthuizen

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Introduction and aims of the study: It is the responsibility of the pharmacist to manage drug-related problems in order to ensure the greatest benefit to the patient. In order to prevent drug-related morbidity, pharmacists should be aware of medicines that may contribute to certain drug-related problems due to their pharmacological action. In an attempt to assist healthcare practitioners to prevent drug-related morbidity (PDRM), indicators for prevention have been designed. There are currently no indicators available for primary health care in developing countries like South Africa, where the majority of the population access primary health care. There is, therefore, a need to develop such indicators, specifically with the aim of assisting healthcare practitioners in primary health care. Methods: A literature study was conducted to compile a comprehensive list of PDRM indicators as developed internationally using the search engines Google Scholar and PubMed. MESH term used to retrieve suitable articles was 'preventable drug-related morbidity indicators'. The comprehensive list of PDRM indicators obtained from the literature study was further evaluated for face validity. Face validity was done in duplicate by 2 sets of independent researchers to ensure 1) no duplication of indicators when compiling a single list, 2) inclusion of only medication available in primary healthcare, and 3) inclusion of medication currently available in South Africa. Results: The list of indicators, compiled from PDRM indicators in the USA, UK, Portugal, Australia, India, and Canada contained 324 PDRM. 184 of these indicators were found to be duplicates, and the duplications were omitted, leaving a final list of 140. The 140 PDRM indicators were evaluated for face-validity, and 97 were accepted as relevant to primary health care in South Africa. 43 indicators did not comply with the criteria and were omitted from the final list. Conclusion: This study is a first step in compiling a list of PDRM indicators for South Africa. It is important to take cognizance to the fact the health systems differ vastly internationally, and it is, therefore, important to develop country-specific indicators.

Keywords: drug-related morbidity, primary healthcare, South Africa, developing countries

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Authors: Jacky Liu

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This paper develops a team sports outcome prediction system with potential for wide-ranging applications across various disciplines. Despite significant advancements in predictive analytics, existing studies in sports outcome predictions possess considerable limitations, including insufficient feature engineering and underutilization of advanced machine learning techniques, among others. To address these issues, we extend the Sports Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (SRP-CRISP-DM) framework and propose a unique, comprehensive predictive system, using National Basketball Association (NBA) data as an example to test this extended framework. Our approach follows a holistic methodology in feature engineering, employing both Time Series and Non-Time Series Data, as well as conducting Explanatory Data Analysis and Feature Selection. Furthermore, we contribute to the discourse on target variable choice in team sports outcome prediction, asserting that point spread prediction yields higher profits as opposed to game-winner predictions. Using machine learning algorithms, particularly XGBoost, results in a significant improvement in predictive accuracy of team sports outcomes. Applied to point spread betting strategies, it offers an astounding annual return of approximately 900% on an initial investment of $100. Our findings not only contribute to academic literature, but have critical practical implications for sports betting. Our study advances the understanding of team sports outcome prediction a burgeoning are in complex system predictions and pave the way for potential profitability and more informed decision making in sports betting markets.

Keywords: machine learning, team sports, game outcome prediction, sports betting, profits simulation

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Authors: Vishwesh Kulkarni, Nikhil Bellarykar

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Cellular complexity stems from the interactions among thousands of different molecular species. Thanks to the emerging fields of systems and synthetic biology, scientists are beginning to unravel these regulatory, signaling, and metabolic interactions and to understand their coordinated action. Reverse engineering of biological networks has has several benefits but a poor quality of data combined with the difficulty in reproducing it limits the applicability of these methods. A few years back, many of the commonly used predictive algorithms were tested on a network constructed in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae (S. cerevisiae) to resolve this issue. The network was a synthetic network of five genes regulating each other for the so-called in vivo reverse-engineering and modeling assessment (IRMA). The network was constructed in S. cereviase since it is a simple and well characterized organism. The synthetic network included a variety of regulatory interactions, thus capturing the behaviour of larger eukaryotic gene networks on a smaller scale. We derive a new set of algorithms by solving a nonlinear optimization problem and show how these algorithms outperform other algorithms on these datasets.

Keywords: synthetic gene network, network identification, optimization, nonlinear modeling

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Authors: Catalina Sau Man Ng

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Workplace bullying is generally defined as a form of direct and indirect maltreatment at work including harassing, offending, socially isolating someone or negatively affecting someone’s work tasks. Workplace bullying is unfortunately commonplace around the world, which makes it a social phenomenon worth researching. However, the measurements and estimation methods of workplace bullying seem to be diverse in different studies, leading to dubious results. Hence, this paper attempts to examine the prevalence of workplace bullying in Hong Kong using the latent class analysis approach. It is often argued that the traditional classification of workplace bullying into the dichotomous 'victims' and 'non-victims' may not be able to fully represent the complex phenomenon of bullying. By treating workplace bullying as one latent variable and examining the potential categorical distribution within the latent variable, a more thorough understanding of workplace bullying in real-life situations may hence be provided. As a result, this study adopts a latent class analysis method, which was tested to demonstrate higher construct and higher predictive validity previously. In the present study, a representative sample of 2814 employees (Male: 54.7%, Female: 45.3%) in Hong Kong was recruited. The participants were asked to fill in a self-reported questionnaire which included measurements such as Chinese Workplace Bullying Scale (CWBS) and Chinese Version of Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS). It is estimated that four latent classes will emerge: 'non-victims', 'seldom bullied', 'sometimes bullied', and 'victims'. The results of each latent class and implications of the study will also be discussed in this working paper.

Keywords: latent class analysis, prevalence, survey, workplace bullying

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Authors: Phakamani Xaba, Robert Huberts, Bilainu Oboirien

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The present study was aimed at developing & comparing two neural-network-based predictive models to predict shelf-life/product age of South African margarine using free fatty acid (FFA), water droplet size (D3.3), water droplet distribution (e-sigma), moisture content, peroxide value (PV), anisidine valve (AnV) and total oxidation (totox) value as input variables to the model. Brick margarine products which had varying ages ranging from fresh i.e. week 0 to week 47 were sourced. The brick margarine products which had been stored at 10 & 25 °C and were characterized. JMP and MATLAB models to predict shelf-life/ margarine age were developed and their performances were compared. The key performance indicators to evaluate the model performances were correlation coefficient (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) relative to the actual data. The MATLAB-developed model showed a better performance in all three performance indicators. The correlation coefficient of the MATLAB model was 99.86% versus 99.74% for the JMP model, the RMSE was 0.720 compared to 1.005 and the MAPE was 7.4% compared to 8.571%. The MATLAB model was selected to be the most accurate, and then, the number of hidden neurons/ nodes was optimized to develop a single predictive model. The optimized MATLAB with 10 neurons showed a better performance compared to the models with 1 & 5 hidden neurons. The developed models can be used by margarine manufacturers, food research institutions, researchers etc, to predict shelf-life/ margarine product age, optimize addition of antioxidants, extend shelf-life of products and proactively troubleshoot for problems related to changes which have an impact on shelf-life of margarine without conducting expensive trials.

Keywords: margarine shelf-life, predictive modelling, neural networks, oil oxidation

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Authors: Haonan Hu, Shuge Lei, Dasheng Sun, Huabin Zhang, Kehong Yuan, Jian Dai, Jijun Tang

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This paper focuses on the classification task of breast ultrasound images and conducts research on the reliability measurement of classification results. A dual-channel evaluation framework was developed based on the proposed inference reliability and predictive reliability scores. For the inference reliability evaluation, human-aligned and doctor-agreed inference rationals based on the improved feature attribution algorithm SP-RISA are gracefully applied. Uncertainty quantification is used to evaluate the predictive reliability via the test time enhancement. The effectiveness of this reliability evaluation framework has been verified on the breast ultrasound clinical dataset YBUS, and its robustness is verified on the public dataset BUSI. The expected calibration errors on both datasets are significantly lower than traditional evaluation methods, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed reliability measurement.

Keywords: medical imaging, ultrasound imaging, XAI, uncertainty measurement, trustworthy AI

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Authors: Nasim Nosoudi, Amir Zadeh, Hunter White, Joshua Conrad, Joon W. Shim

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De novo Malignancy has become one of the major causes of death after transplantation, so early cancer diagnosis and detection can drastically improve survival rates post-transplantation. Most previous work focuses on using artificial intelligence (AI) to predict transplant success or failure outcomes. In this work, we focused on predicting de novo malignancy after liver transplantation using AI. We chose the patients that had malignancy after liver transplantation with no history of malignancy pre-transplant. Their donors were cancer-free as well. We analyzed 254,200 patient profiles with post-transplant malignancy from the US Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN). Several popular data mining methods were applied to the resultant dataset to build predictive models to characterize de novo malignancy after liver transplantation. Recipient's bilirubin, creatinine, weight, gender, number of days recipient was on the transplant waiting list, Epstein Barr Virus (EBV), International normalized ratio (INR), and ascites are among the most important factors affecting de novo malignancy after liver transplantation

Keywords: De novo malignancy, bilirubin, data mining, transplantation

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Authors: Ryotaro Ishikawa

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Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) is a common, chronic and long-lasting disorder in which a person has uncontrollable, reoccurring thoughts (obsessions) and behaviors (compulsions) that he or she feels the urge to repeat over and over. Inflated responsibility attitude and interpretation are central beliefs in a cognitive model of OCD. This study aimed to develop a Japanese version of the Responsibility Attitude Scale (RAS-J) and Responsibility Interpretation Questionnaire (RIQ-J). 98 participants (OCD group = 37; anxiety control group = 24; healthy control group = 37) completed the RAS-J, RIQ-J and other measures to assess the validity of the RAS-J and RIQ-J. As a result of analysis, both scales had adequate concurrent validity, demonstrated by significant correlations with other measures of OCD, anxiety, and depression. Group comparison data using ANOVA with Bonferroni method indicated that RAS-J and RIQ-J scores for the OCD group not only differed from the nonclinical group, but also from the clinically anxious comparison group. In conclusion, this study indicated that the developed RAS-J and RIQ-J effectively measure responsibility attitude and responsibility interpretation in the Japanese population.

Keywords: obsessive-compulsive disorder, responsibility, cognitive theory, anxiety disorder

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Authors: Gizem Akcan, Erdinc Ozturk

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The purpose of the study was to determine some psychosocial variables that predict dissociation in university students. These psychosocial variables were perceived childhood trauma, alexithymia, and gender. 150 (75 males, 75 females) university students (bachelor, master and postgraduate) were enrolled in this study. They were chosen from universities in Istanbul at the education year of 2016-2017. Dissociative Experiences Scale (DES), Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) and Toronto Alexithymia Scale were used to assess related variables. Demographic Information Form was given to students in order to have their demographic information. Frequency Distribution, Linear Regression Analysis, and t-test analysis were used for statistical analysis. Childhood trauma and alexithymia were found to have predictive value on dissociation among university students. However, physical abuse, physical neglect and emotional neglect sub dimensions of childhood trauma and externally-oriented thinking sub dimension of alexithymia did not have predictive value on dissociation. Moreover, there was no significant difference between males and females in terms of dissociation scores of participants.

Keywords: childhood trauma, dissociation, alexithymia, gender

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Mohammad Ghandehari Motlagh

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Purpose: To evaluate validity of simplified Javal’s rule (Total Ast=Corneal Ast-0.50@9) in 147 pre-op cataract eyes. Methods: Due to change in lens tissue and structure in a cataract crystalline lens, we conceive the simplified javal’s rule may not be valid in cataract cases.In this cross-sectional study,147 pre-op cataract eyes without oblique astigmatism were enrolled in this study. Ocular biometry (with IOL master 500)and keratometry and refraction findings were recorded. Results: Mean age of our patients was 64.95 yrs/old (SD+_9.86) that confirms on senile cataract. Mean Axial length and average keratometry were respectively 23.86 and 44.62.Prevalence of systemic diseases diabet and high blood pressure were respectively 43 (29.25%) and 44 (29.93%)and shows importance of these diseases. The Corneal astigmatism axis is correlated with refractive astigmatism in cataract eyes (R=0.493). Simplified Javal’s rule is valid in cataract eyes (P<0.001). Conclusion: Simplified Javal’s rule is a valid formula in pre-op cataract eyes and can be used for keratometry results confirmation.

Keywords: javals rule, cataract, keratometry, ocular axial length

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Abidi, Zahra Nourouz Pour, Mehdi Moudi

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In this research, firstly critical success factors and deterrent factors in implementing projects and also the factors those cause information technology productivity (IT) paradox in Islamic Azad University, Zahedan branch examined. Research method of this paper is descriptive. In fact, the researcher by using survey, proposed useful solutions. In this research, subjects’ responders to questionnaires items were based on Likert scale. In the questionnaire, economic, technical, organizational and cultural factors in the university have been assessed in order to obtain the necessary validity. We used masters and technicians of IT department’s advices to realize reliability and consistency. For the reliability test we used Cronbach’s reliability test and validity has been obtained using SPSS software. Because of the research questions and objectives, t-student test is used for hypothesis testing. Finally we analyze the findings, we offer conclusions and suggestions.

Keywords: IT projects, Islamic Azad University, success factors, deterrent factors

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Authors: Abdul-Ganiyu Fuseini, Bernice Redley, Helen Rawson, Lenore Lay, Debra Kerr

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Aim: The study aimed to develop and validate a culturally appropriate patient-reported outcome measure for measuring dignity for older adults during acute hospital admissions. Design: A three-phased mixed-method sequential exploratory design was used. Methods: Concept elicitation and generation of items for the scale was informed by older adults’ perspectives about dignity during acute hospitalization and a literature review. Content validity evaluation and pre-testing were undertaken using standard instrument development techniques. A cross-sectional survey design was conducted involving 270 hospitalized older adults for evaluation of construct and convergent validity, internal consistency reliability, and test–retest reliability of the scale. Analysis was performed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, version 25. Reporting of the study was guided by the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) checklist. Results: We established the 15-item Hospitalized Older Adults’ Dignity Scale that has a 5-factor structure: Shared Decision-Making (3 items); Healthcare Professional-Patient Communication (3 items); Patient Autonomy (4 items); Patient Privacy (2 items); and Respectful Care (3 items). Excellent content validity, adequate construct and convergent validity, acceptable internal consistency reliability, and good test-retest reliability were demonstrated. Conclusion: We established the Hospitalized Older Adults Dignity Scale as a valid and reliable scale to measure dignity for older adults during acute hospital admissions. Future studies using confirmatory factor analysis are needed to corroborate the dimensionality of the factor structure and external validity of the scale. Routine use of the scale may provide information that informs the development of strategies to improve dignity-related care in the future. Impact: The development and validation of the Hospitalized Older Adults Dignity Scale will provide healthcare professionals with a feasible and reliable scale for measuring older adults’ dignity during acute hospitalization. Routine use of the scale may enable the capturing and incorporation of older patients’ perspectives about their healthcare experience and provide information that informs the development of strategies to improve dignity-related care in the future.

Keywords: dignity, older adults, hospitalisation, scale, patients, dignified care, acute care

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Authors: Masood Roohi, Amir Taghavipour

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This paper describes a strategy to develop an energy management system (EMS) for a charge-sustaining power-split hybrid electric vehicle. This kind of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) benefit from the advantages of both parallel and series architecture. However, it gets relatively more complicated to manage power flow between the battery and the engine optimally. The applied strategy in this paper is based on nonlinear model predictive control approach. First of all, an appropriate control-oriented model which was accurate enough and simple was derived. Towards utilization of this controller in real-time, the problem was solved off-line for a vast area of reference signals and initial conditions and stored the computed manipulated variables inside look-up tables. Look-up tables take a little amount of memory. Also, the computational load dramatically decreased, because to find required manipulated variables the controller just needed a simple interpolation between tables.

Keywords: hybrid electric vehicles, energy management system, nonlinear model predictive control, real-time

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Authors: Yildiz Stella Dak, Jale Tezcan

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Ground motion models that relate a strong motion parameter of interest to a set of predictive seismological variables describing the earthquake source, the propagation path of the seismic wave, and the local site conditions constitute a critical component of seismic hazard analyses. When a sufficient number of strong motion records are available, ground motion relations are developed using statistical analysis of the recorded ground motion data. In regions lacking a sufficient number of recordings, a synthetic database is developed using stochastic, theoretical or hybrid approaches. Regardless of the manner the database was developed, ground motion relations are developed using regression analysis. Development of a ground motion relation is a challenging process which inevitably requires the modeler to make subjective decisions regarding the inclusion criteria of the recordings, the functional form of the model and the set of seismological variables to be included in the model. Because these decisions are critically important to the validity and the applicability of the model, there is a continuous interest on procedures that will facilitate the development of ground motion models. This paper proposes the use of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) in selecting the set predictive seismological variables to be used in developing a ground motion relation. The LASSO can be described as a penalized regression technique with a built-in capability of variable selection. Similar to the ridge regression, the LASSO is based on the idea of shrinking the regression coefficients to reduce the variance of the model. Unlike ridge regression, where the coefficients are shrunk but never set equal to zero, the LASSO sets some of the coefficients exactly to zero, effectively performing variable selection. Given a set of candidate input variables and the output variable of interest, LASSO allows ranking the input variables in terms of their relative importance, thereby facilitating the selection of the set of variables to be included in the model. Because the risk of overfitting increases as the ratio of the number of predictors to the number of recordings increases, selection of a compact set of variables is important in cases where a small number of recordings are available. In addition, identification of a small set of variables can improve the interpretability of the resulting model, especially when there is a large number of candidate predictors. A practical application of the proposed approach is presented, using more than 600 recordings from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) database, where the effect of a set of seismological predictors on the 5% damped maximum direction spectral acceleration is investigated. The set of candidate predictors considered are Magnitude, Rrup, Vs30. Using LASSO, the relative importance of the candidate predictors has been ranked. Regression models with increasing levels of complexity were constructed using one, two, three, and four best predictors, and the models’ ability to explain the observed variance in the target variable have been compared. The bias-variance trade-off in the context of model selection is discussed.

Keywords: ground motion modeling, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, penalized regression, variable selection

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: D. Reich, R. Stark

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To provide reliable and valid findings when evaluating innovative in-car devices in the automotive context highly realistic driving environments are recommended. Nowadays, in-car devices are mostly evaluated due to driving simulator studies followed by real car driving experiments. Driving simulators are characterized by high internal validity, but weak regarding ecological validity. Real car driving experiments are ecologically valid, but difficult to standardize, more time-robbing and costly. One economizing suggestion is to implement more immersive driving environments when applying driving simulator studies. This paper presents research comparing non-immersive standard PC conditions with mobile and highly immersive Oculus Rift conditions while performing the Lane Change Task (LCT). Subjective data with twenty participants show advantages regarding presence and immersion experience when performing the LCT with the Oculus Rift, but affect adversely cognitive workload and simulator sickness, compared to non-immersive PC condition.

Keywords: immersion, oculus rift, presence, situation awareness

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Authors: Marian Sorin Ionescu, Olivia Negoita, Cosmin Dobrin

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This scientific communication reports and discusses learning models adaptable to modern business problems and models specific to digital concepts and paradigms. In the PAC (probably approximately correct) learning model approach, in which the learning process begins by receiving a batch of learning examples, the set of learning processes is used to acquire a hypothesis, and when the learning process is fully used, this hypothesis is used in the prediction of new operational examples. For complex business models, a lot of models should be introduced and evaluated to estimate the induced results so that the totality of the results are used to develop a predictive rule, which anticipates the choice of new models. In opposition, for online learning-type processes, there is no separation between the learning (training) and predictive phase. Every time a business model is approached, a test example is considered from the beginning until the prediction of the appearance of a model considered correct from the point of view of the business decision. After choosing choice a part of the business model, the label with the logical value "true" is known. Some of the business models are used as examples of learning (training), which helps to improve the prediction mechanisms for future business models.

Keywords: machine learning, business models, convex analysis, online learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: T. Keiller, E. Hindman, P. Hassmen, K. Radford, L. Lavrencic

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Background: Psychosocial disadvantage is associated with impaired cognitive abilities, with executive functioning (EF) abilities particularly vulnerable. EF abilities strongly predict general daily functioning, educational and career prospects, and health choices. A reliable and valid assessment of EF is important to support appropriate care and intervention strategies. However, evidence-based EF assessment tools for use with Aboriginal Australians are limited. Aim and Method: This research aims to develop and validate a culturally appropriate EF tool for use with indigenous Australians. To this end, Study One aims to review current literature examining the benefits and disadvantages of current EF assessment tools for use with Indigenous Australians. Study Two aims to collate expert opinion on the strengths and weaknesses of various current EF assessment tools for use with Indigenous Australians using Delphi methodology with experienced psychologists (n = 10). The initial two studies will inform the development of a culturally appropriate assessment tool. Study Three aims to evaluate the psychometric properties of the tool with an Indigenous sample living in the New South Wales Mid-North Coast. The study aims to quantify the predictive validity of this tool via comparison to functionality predictors and neuropsychological assessment scores. Study Four aims to collect qualitative data surrounding the feasibility and acceptability of the tool among indigenous Australians and health professionals. Expected Results: Findings from this research are likely to inform cognitive assessment practices and tool selection for health professionals conducting cognitive assessments with Indigenous Australians. Improved assessment of EF will inform appropriate care and intervention strategies for individuals with EF deficits.

Keywords: aboriginal Australians, assessment tool, cognition, executive functioning

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Furkan Ozkan, M. Selcuk Arslan, Hatice Mercan

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Electric vehicles are becoming increasingly popular asa sustainable alternative to traditional combustion engine vehicles. However, to fully realize the potential of EVs in reducing environmental impact and energy consumption, efficient control strategies are essential. This study explores the application of green wave control using model predictive control for electric vehicles, coupled with energy consumption modeling using neural networks. The use of MPC allows for real-time optimization of the vehicles’ energy consumption while considering dynamic traffic conditions. By leveraging neural networks for energy consumption modeling, the EV's performance can be further enhanced through accurate predictions and adaptive control. The integration of these advanced control and modeling techniques aims to maximize energy efficiency and range while navigating urban traffic scenarios. The findings of this research offer valuable insights into the potential of green wave control for electric vehicles and demonstrate the significance of integrating MPC and neural network modeling for optimizing energy consumption. This work contributes to the advancement of sustainable transportation systems and the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. To evaluate the effectiveness of the green wave control strategy in real-world urban environments, extensive simulations were conducted using a high-fidelity vehicle model and realistic traffic scenarios. The results indicate that the integration of model predictive control and energy consumption modeling with neural networks had a significant impact on the energy efficiency and range of electric vehicles. Through the use of MPC, the electric vehicle was able to adapt its speed and acceleration profile in realtime to optimize energy consumption while maintaining travel time objectives. The neural network-based energy consumption modeling provided accurate predictions, enabling the vehicle to anticipate and respond to variations in traffic flow, further enhancing energy efficiency and range. Furthermore, the study revealed that the green wave control strategy not only reduced energy consumption but also improved the overall driving experience by minimizing abrupt acceleration and deceleration, leading to a smoother and more comfortable ride for passengers. These results demonstrate the potential for green wave control to revolutionize urban transportation by enhancing the performance of electric vehicles and contributing to a more sustainable and efficient mobility ecosystem.

Keywords: electric vehicles, energy efficiency, green wave control, model predictive control, neural networks

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Authors: Deepika Christopher, Garima Anand

Abstract:

To determine the best model for churn prediction in the telecom industry, this paper compares 11 machine learning algorithms, namely Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Decision Tree, XGBoost, LightGBM, Cat Boost, AdaBoost, Extra Trees, Deep Neural Network, and Hybrid Model (MLPClassifier). It also aims to pinpoint the top three factors that lead to customer churn and conducts customer segmentation to identify vulnerable groups. According to the data, the Logistic Regression model performs the best, with an F1 score of 0.6215, 81.76% accuracy, 68.95% precision, and 56.57% recall. The top three attributes that cause churn are found to be tenure, Internet Service Fiber optic, and Internet Service DSL; conversely, the top three models in this article that perform the best are Logistic Regression, Deep Neural Network, and AdaBoost. The K means algorithm is applied to establish and analyze four different customer clusters. This study has effectively identified customers that are at risk of churn and may be utilized to develop and execute strategies that lower customer attrition.

Keywords: attrition, retention, predictive modeling, customer segmentation, telecommunications

Procedia PDF Downloads 38