Search results for: Carlo Alberto Bignozzi

Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

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Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

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Authors: Roman Snytsar

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Pseudo-random numbers are often used in scientific computing such as the Monte Carlo Simulations or the Quantum Inspired Optimization. Requirements for a parallel random number generator running in the modern multi-core vector environment are more stringent than those for sequential random number generators. As well as passing the usual quality tests, the output of the parallel random number generator must be verifiable and reproducible throughout the concurrent execution. We propose a family of vectorized Permuted Congruential Generators. Implementations are available for multiple modern vector modern computer architectures. Besides demonstrating good single core performance, the generators scale easily across many processor cores and multiple distributed nodes. We provide performance and parallel speedup analysis and comparisons between the implementations.

Keywords: pseudo-random numbers, quantum optimization, SIMD, parallel computing

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Authors: Aleksandr Kavetskiy, Galina Yakubova, Nikolay Sargsyan, Stephen A. Prior, H. Allen Torbert

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The carbon sequestration question of modern times requires the development of an in-situ method of measuring soil carbon over large landmasses. Traditional chemical analytical methods used to evaluate large land areas require extensive soil sampling prior to processing for laboratory analysis; collectively, this is labor-intensive and time-consuming. An alternative method is to apply nuclear physics analysis, primarily in the form of pulsed fast-thermal neutron-gamma soil carbon analysis. This method is based on measuring the gamma-ray response that appears upon neutron irradiation of soil. Specific gamma lines with energies of 4.438 MeV appearing from neutron irradiation can be attributed to soil carbon nuclei. Based on measuring gamma line intensity, assessments of soil carbon concentration can be made. This method can be done directly in the field using a specially developed pulsed fast-thermal neutron-gamma system (PFTNA system). This system conducts in-situ analysis in a scanning mode coupled with GPS, which provides soil carbon concentration and distribution over large fields. The system has radiation shielding to minimize the dose rate (within radiation safety guidelines) for safe operator usage. Questions concerning the effect of neutron irradiation on soil health will be addressed. Information regarding absorbed neutron and gamma dose received by soil and its distribution with depth will be discussed in this study. This information was generated based on Monte-Carlo simulations (MCNP6.2 code) of neutron and gamma propagation in soil. Received data were used for the analysis of possible induced irradiation effects. The physical, chemical and biological effects of neutron soil irradiation were considered. From a physical aspect, we considered neutron (produced by the PFTNA system) induction of new isotopes and estimated the possibility of increasing the post-irradiation gamma background by comparisons to the natural background. An insignificant increase in gamma background appeared immediately after irradiation but returned to original values after several minutes due to the decay of short-lived new isotopes. From a chemical aspect, possible radiolysis of water (presented in soil) was considered. Based on stimulations of radiolysis of water, we concluded that the gamma dose rate used cannot produce gamma rays of notable rates. Possible effects of neutron irradiation (by the PFTNA system) on soil biota were also assessed experimentally. No notable changes were noted at the taxonomic level, nor was functional soil diversity affected. Our assessment suggested that the use of a PFTNA system with a neutron flux of 1e7 n/s for soil carbon analysis does not notably affect soil properties or soil health.

Keywords: carbon sequestration, neutron gamma analysis, radiation effect on soil, Monte-Carlo simulation

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Authors: Zahra Majd, Mohsen Kalantar

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Power management and voltage regulation is one of the most important issues in microgrid (MG) control and scheduling. This paper proposes a multiobjective scheduling formulation that consists of active power costs, voltage fluctuations summation, and technical constraints of MG. Furthermore, load flow and reserve constraints are considered to achieve proper voltage regulation. A modified Jacobian matrix is presented for calculating voltage variations and Mont Carlo simulation is used for generating and reducing scenarios. To convert the problem to a mixed integer linear program, a linearization procedure for nonlinear equations is presented. The proposed model is applied to a typical low-voltage MG and two different cases are investigated. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: microgrid, energy management system, voltage fluctuations, modified Jacobian matrix

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Authors: Nicole Virgili, Romolo Remetti

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The aim of this work is to characterize, from radiation protection point of view, the emission into the environment of air contaminated by argon-41. In this research work, 41Ar is produced by a TR19PET cyclotron, operated at 19 MeV, installed at 'A. Gemelli' University Hospital, Rome, Italy, for fluorine-18 production. The production rate of 41Ar has been calculated on the basis of the scheduled operation cycles of the cyclotron and by utilising proper production algorithms. Then extensive Monte Carlo calculations, carried out by MCNP code, have allowed to determine the absolute detection efficiency to 41Ar gamma rays of a Geiger Muller detector placed in the terminal part of the chimney. Results showed unsatisfactory detection efficiency values and the need for integrating the detection system with more efficient detectors.

Keywords: Cyclotron, Geiger Muller detector, MCNPX, argon-41, emission of radioactive gas, detection efficiency determination

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Authors: Carlos Alberto Ríos-Reyes, Efraín Casadiego-Quintero

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We propose a generalized workflow for mineralogy investigation of unconventional reservoirs using multi-scale imaging and pore-scale analyses. This workflow can be used for the integral evaluation of these resources. The Cretaceous La Luna Formation´s mudstones in the Middle Magdalena Valley Basin (Colombia) inherently show a heterogeneous pore system with organic and inorganic pores. For this reason, it is necessary to carry out the integration of high resolution 2D images of mapping by conventional petrography, scanning electron microscopy and quantitative evaluation of minerals by scanning electron microscopy to describe their organic and inorganic porosity to understand the transport mechanism through pores. The analyzed rocks show several pore types, including interparticle pores, organoporosity, intraparticle pores, intraparticle pores, and microchannels and/or microfractures. The existence of interconnected pores in pore system of these rocks promotes effective pathways for primary gas migration and storage space for residual hydrocarbons in mudstones, which is very useful in this type of gas reservoirs. It is crucial to understand not only the porous system of these rocks and their mineralogy but also to project the gas flow in order to design the appropriate strategies for the stimulation of unconventional reservoirs. Keywords: mudstones; La Luna Formation; gas storage; migration; hydrocarbon.

Keywords: mudstones, La luna formation, gas storage, migration, hydrocarbon

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Authors: Francys Souza, Alberto Ohashi, Dorival Leao

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We present a general solution for finding the ε-optimal controls for non-Markovian stochastic systems as stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motion, which is a problem recognized as a difficult solution. The contribution appears in the development of mathematical tools to deal with modeling and control of non-Markovian systems, whose applicability in different areas is well known. The methodology used consists to discretize the problem through a random discretization. In this way, we transform an infinite dimensional problem in a finite dimensional, thereafter we use measurable selection arguments, to find a control on an explicit form for the discretized problem. Then, we prove the control found for the discretized problem is a ε-optimal control for the original problem. Our theory provides a concrete description of a rather general class, among the principals, we can highlight financial problems such as portfolio control, hedging, super-hedging, pairs-trading and others. Therefore, our main contribution is the development of a tool to explicitly the ε-optimal control for non-Markovian stochastic systems. The pathwise analysis was made through a random discretization jointly with measurable selection arguments, has provided us with a structure to transform an infinite dimensional problem into a finite dimensional. The theory is applied to stochastic control problems based on path-dependent stochastic differential equations, where both drift and diffusion components are controlled. We are able to explicitly show optimal control with our method.

Keywords: dynamic programming equation, optimal control, stochastic control, stochastic differential equation

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Authors: Matteo Rossini, Alberto Portioli Staudacher

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The market competition is moving from the single firm to the whole supply chain one because of increasing competition and growing need for operational efficiencies and customer orientation. Supply chain management allows companies to look beyond their organizational boundaries to develop and leverage resources and capabilities of their supply chain partners. This leads to create competitive advantages in the marketplace and because of this SCM has acquired strategic importance. Lean Approach is a management strategy that focuses on reducing every type of waste present in an organization. This approach is becoming more and more popular among supply chain managers. The supply chain application of lean approach is low diffused. It is not well studied which are the impacts of lean approach principles in a supply chain context. In literature there are only few studies simulating the lean approach performance in single products supply chain. This research work studies the impacts of lean principles implementation along a supply chain. To achieve this, a simulation model of a three-echelon multiproduct product supply chain has been built. Kanban system (and several priority policies) and setup time reduction degrees are implemented in the lean-configured supply chain to apply pull and lot-sizing decrease principles respectively. To evaluate the benefits of lean approach, lean supply chain is compared with an EOQ-configured supply chain. The simulation results show that Kanban system and setup-time reduction improve inventory stock level. They also show that logistics efforts are affected to lean implementation degree. The paper concludes describing performances of lean supply chain in different contexts.

Keywords: inventory policy, Kanban, lean supply chain, simulation study, supply chain management, planning

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Authors: Mrigank Sahai, R. Sri Raghu

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This paper presents the modelling of rocket exhaust plume flow field and exhaust plume impingement in vacuum for the liquid apogee engine and attitude control thrusters of the lunar lander. Analytic formulations for rarefied gas kinetics has been taken as reference for modelling the plume flow field. The plume has been modelled as high speed, collision-less, axi-symmetric gas jet, expanding into vacuum and impinging at a normally set diffusive circular plate. Specular reflections have not been considered for the present study. Different parameters such as number density, temperature, pressure, flow velocity, heat flux etc., have been calculated and have been plotted against and compared to Direct Simulation Monte Carlo results. These analyses have provided important information for the placement of critical optical instruments and design of optimal thermal insulation for the hardware that may come in contact with the thruster exhaust.

Keywords: collision-less gas, lunar lander, plume impingement, rarefied exhaust plume

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Authors: Thea Silayro, Isabella Tan, Carlo Manuel, Denisse Abellon

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Romantic love is highly universal and exists in most cultures. The current study explored its definition for people in different relationship durations and explored how this definition influences their expression of love and their conflict resolutions. Gender‟s influence on the definitions was explored, as well. Nine couples from different relationship durations (2-3 years, 7-10 years and more than 25 years) were interviewed. Transcripts of the interviews underwent thematic analysis. The results of the study suggest that 2-3 years in the relationship is the courting stage, 7-10 years in the relationship is the settling down stage and more than 25 years, the most stable stage. Men and women have similar ways of expressing love and resolving conflicts, but differ in such a way that men highlight actions and women highlight emotions when talking about love; changes in definitions arise internally in men and externally in females. Generally, romantic love is expressed through service. Communication is essential among all couples, and they become more secure with time.

Keywords: relationship duration, love, expressions of love, relationships

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Authors: Carlo Schick

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Legitimacy can be regarded the very fabric of political orders. Up to this point, IR scholarship was particularly interested in the legitimacy of nation-states, international regimes and of non-governmental actors. The legitimacy of collaborative governance comprising public, private and civic actors, however, has not received much attention from an IR perspective. This is partly due to the fact that the concept of legitimacy is difficult to operationalise and measure in settings where there is no clear boundary between political authorities and those who are subject to collaborative governance. In this case, legitimacy cannot be empirically approached in its own terms, but can only be analysed in terms of dialectic legitimation processes. The author develops a three-fold analytical framework based on a dialogical understanding of legitimation. Legitimation first has to relate to public legitimacy demands and contestations of collaborative governance and second to legitimacy claims issued by collaborative governance networks themselves. Lastly, collaborative governance is dependent on constant self-legitimisation. The paper closes with suggesting a discourse analytic approach to further empirical research on the legitimacy of collaborative governance.

Keywords: legitimacy, collaborative governance, discourse analysis, dialectic legitimation

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Authors: Juan Li, Jiawen Qiu, Yuchuan Chu, Tianping Zhang, Wei Meng, Yanhui Jia, Xiaohui Liu

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This article developed an ion thruster optic system sputter erosion depth numerical 3D model by IFE-PIC (Immersed Finite Element-Particle-in-Cell) and Mont Carlo method, and calculated the downstream surface sputter erosion rate of accelerator grid; Compared with LIPS-200 life test data, the results of the numerical model are in reasonable agreement with the measured data. Finally, we predict the lifetime of the 20cm diameter ion thruster via the erosion data obtained with the model. The ultimate result demonstrates that under normal operating condition, the erosion rate of the grooves wears on the downstream surface of the accelerator grid is 34.6μm⁄1000h, which means the conservative lifetime until structural failure occurring on the accelerator grid is 11500 hours.

Keywords: ion thruster, accelerator gird, sputter erosion, lifetime assessment

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Carlos Alberto Ríos Reyes

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Traditionally, clays have been considered as one of the main problems in the flow of fluids in hydrocarbon reservoirs. However, there is not known the significance of zeolites formed from the reactivity of clays and their effect not only on the costs of operations carried out by the oil industry in the world but also on production. The present work focused on understanding the interaction between clay minerals with brines and alkaline solutions used in the oil industry. For this, a comparative study was conducted where the reaction of sedimentary rocks under laboratory conditions was examined. Original and treated rocks were examined by X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) to determine the changes that these rocks underwent upon contact with fluids of variable chemical composition. As a result, zeolite Linde Type A (LTA), sodalite (SOD), and cancrinite (CAN) can be formed after experimental work, which coincided with the dissolution of kaolinite and smectite. Results reveal that the Oil Industry should invest efforts and focus its gaze to understand at the pore scale the problem that could arise as a consequence of the clay-fluid interaction in hydrocarbon reservoir rocks due to the presence of clays in their porous system, as well as the formation of zeolites, which are better hydrocarbon absorbents. These issues could be generating losses in world production. We conclude that there is a critical situation that may be occurring in the stimulation of hydrocarbon reservoirs, where real solutions are necessary not only for the formulation of more efficient and effective injection fluids but also to contribute to the improvement of production and avoid considerable losses in operating costs.

Keywords: clay minerals, zeolites, rock-fluid interaction, experimental work, reactivity

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Authors: Ali Atashbar Orang, Carlo Massimo Casciola

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A novel numerical approach for the steady incompressible turbulent flows is presented in this paper. The artificial compressibility method (ACM) is applied to the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. A new Characteristic-Based Turbulent (CBT) scheme is developed for the convective fluxes. The well-known Spalart–Allmaras turbulence model is employed to check the effectiveness of this new scheme. Comparing the proposed scheme with previous studies, it is found that the present CBT scheme demonstrates accurate results, high stability and faster convergence. In addition, the local time stepping and implicit residual smoothing are applied as the convergence acceleration techniques. The turbulent flows past a backward facing step, circular cylinder, and NACA0012 hydrofoil are studied as benchmarks. Results compare favorably with those of other available schemes.

Keywords: incompressible turbulent flow, method of characteristics, finite volume, Spalart–Allmaras turbulence model

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Authors: Harold Mauricio Díaz-Vargas, Cristian Alfonso Jimenez-Castaño, David Augusto Cárdenas-Peña, Guillermo Alberto Ortiz-Gómez, Alvaro Angel Orozco-Gutierrez

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Precise identification of the nerves is a crucial task performed by anesthesiologists for an effective Peripheral Nerve Blocking (PNB). Now, anesthesiologists use ultrasound imaging equipment to guide the PNB and detect nervous structures. However, visual identification of the nerves from ultrasound images is difficult, even for trained specialists, due to artifacts and low contrast. The recent advances in deep learning make neural networks a potential tool for accurate nerve segmentation systems, so addressing the above issues from raw data. The most widely spread U-Net network yields pixel-by-pixel segmentation by encoding the input image and decoding the attained feature vector into a semantic image. This work proposes a conditioning approach and encoder pre-training to enhance the nerve segmentation of traditional U-Nets. Conditioning is achieved by the one-hot encoding of the kind of target nerve a the network input, while the pre-training considers five well-known deep networks for image classification. The proposed approach is tested in a collection of 619 US images, where the best C-UNet architecture yields an 81% Dice coefficient, outperforming the 74% of the best traditional U-Net. Results prove that pre-trained models with the conditional approach outperform their equivalent baseline by supporting learning new features and enriching the discriminant capability of the tested networks.

Keywords: nerve segmentation, U-Net, deep learning, ultrasound imaging, peripheral nerve blocking

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Authors: Cormac Reale, Luke J. Prendergast, Kenneth Gavin

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While significant improvements have been made in axial pile design methods over recent years, the influence of soils natural variability has not been adequately accounted for within them. Soil variability is a crucial parameter to consider as it can account for large variations in pile capacity across the same site. This paper seeks to address this knowledge deficit, by demonstrating how soil spatial variability can be accommodated into existing cone penetration test (CPT) based pile design methods, in the form of layered non-homogeneous random fields. These random fields model the scope of a given property’s variance and define how it varies spatially. A Monte Carlo analysis of the pile will be performed taking into account parameter uncertainty and spatial variability, described using the measured scales of fluctuation. The results will be discussed in light of Eurocode 7 and the effect of spatial averaging on design capacities will be analysed.

Keywords: pile axial design, reliability, spatial variability, CPT

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Authors: Bárbara Dantas

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Nicolas-Antoine Taunay had everything to have a quiet life with his numerous family, his colleagues from the Paris Academy of Art, and as a renowned painter of the French Court, but the conjuncture was quite complicated in those final years of the eighteenth century and first decades of the 19th century. The painter had to adapt to various political and social ruptures: from royalty to the French Revolution, from the empire of Napoleon Bonaparte to the empire of King John VI. According to the method of analysis that involves the idea of "political iconography" from Carlo Ginzburg and the concept of "representation" associated with Georges Didi-Huberman, this work wishes to insert Taunay in its context through the analysis of his portrait made by a colleague of the profession and of a Brazilian landscape painted of his own (1816-1821) and, in which he represented himself. Finally, the intention is to find in these two paintings how Nicolas-Antoine Taunay faced himself and in the middle that surrounded him in the traffic that was forced to make it between Paris and Rio de Janeiro.

Keywords: Nicolas-Antoine Taunay, politic iconography, French art, Brazilian art, 19th century

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Authors: S. Sangaroon, W. Ratanatongchai, S. Khaweerat, R. Picha, J. Channuie

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The prompt gamma-ray neutron activation analysis system (PGNAA) has been constructed and installed at a 6 inch diameter neutron beam port of the Thai Research Reactor-1/ Modification 1 (TRR-1/M1) since 1989. It was designed for the reactor operating power at 1.2 MW. The purpose of the system is for an elemental and isotopic analytical. In 2016, the PGNAA facility will be developed to reduce the leakage and background of neutrons and gamma radiation at the sample and detector position. In this work, the designed condition of these facilities is carried out based on the Monte Carlo method using MCNP5 computer code. The conditions with different modification materials, thicknesses and structure of the PGNAA facility, including gamma collimator and radiation shields of the detector, are simulated, and then the optimal structure parameters with a significantly improved performance of the facility are obtained.

Keywords: MCNP simulation, PGNAA, Thai research reactor (TRR-1/M1), radiation shielding

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Authors: Raj Kumari Bahl, Sotirios Sabanis

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In this paper, we are concerned with the valuation of the first Catastrophic Mortality Bond that was launched in the market namely the Swiss Re Mortality Bond 2003. This bond encapsulates the behavior of a well-defined mortality index to generate payoffs for the bondholders. Pricing this bond is a challenging task. We adapt the payoff of the terminal principal of the bond in terms of the payoff of an Asian put option and present an approach to derive model-independent bounds exploiting comonotonic theory. We invoke Jensen’s inequality for the computation of lower bounds and employ Lagrange optimization technique to achieve the upper bound. The success of these bounds is based on the availability of compatible European mortality options in the market. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the bond price and illustrate the strength of these bounds across a variety of models. The fact that our bounds are model-independent is a crucial breakthrough in the pricing of catastrophic mortality bonds.

Keywords: mortality bond, Swiss Re Bond, mortality index, comonotonicity

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Authors: Estefania Ponce-Amaya, Ana Lidia Arellano-Ortiz, Cecilia Diaz-Hernandez, Jose Alberto Lopez-Diaz, Antonio De La Mora-Covarrubias, Claudia Lucia Vargas-Requena, Mauricio Salcedo-Vargas, Florinda Jimenez-Vega

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Cervical Cancer (CC) is the second leading cause of death among women worldwide and it had been associated with a persistent infection of human papillomavirus (HPV). The goal of the current study was to identify the prevalence of HPV infection in women with abnormal Pap smear who were attended at Dysplasia Clinic of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. Methods: Cervical samples from 146 patients, who attended the Colposcopy Clinic at Sanitary Jurisdiction II of Cd Juarez, were collected for histopathology and molecular study. DNA was isolated for the HPV detection by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) using MY09/011 and GP5/6 primers. The associated risk factors were assessed by a questionnaire. The statistical analysis was performed by ANOVA, using EpiINFO V7 software. Results: HPV infection was present in 142 patients (97.3 %). The prevalence of HPV infection was distributed in a 96% of all evaluated groups, low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL), high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HISIL) and CC. We found a statistical significance (α = <0.05) between gestation and number of births as risk factors. The median values showed an ascending tend according with the lesion progression. However, CC showed a statistically significant difference with respect to the pre-carcinogenic stages. Conclusions: In these Mexican patients exists a high prevalence of HPV infection, and for that reason, we are studying the most prevalent HPV genotypes in this population.

Keywords: cervical cancer, HPV, prevalence hpv, squamous intraepithelial lesion

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Authors: Sadaf Nawaz, Adnan Ahmed Khan, Asad Mahmood, Chaudhary Farrukh Javed

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Classically, an energy detector is implemented in time domain (TD). However, frequency domain (FD) based energy detector has demonstrated an improved performance. This paper presents a comparison between the two approaches as to analyze their pros and cons. A detailed performance analysis of the classical TD energy-detector and the periodogram based detector is performed. Exact and approximate mathematical expressions for probability of false alarm (Pf) and probability of detection (Pd) are derived for both approaches. The derived expressions naturally lead to an analytical as well as intuitive reasoning for the improved performance of (Pf) and (Pd) in different scenarios. Our analysis suggests the dependence improvement on buffer sizes. Pf is improved in FD, whereas Pd is enhanced in TD based energy detectors. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations results demonstrate the analysis reached by the derived expressions.

Keywords: cognitive radio, energy detector, periodogram, spectrum sensing

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Authors: R. J. Chang

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A cyclostationary Gaussian linearization method is formulated for investigating the time average response of nonlinear system under sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation. The quantitative measure of cyclostationary mean, variance, spectrum of mean amplitude, and mean power spectral density of noise is analyzed. The qualitative response behavior of stochastic jump and bifurcation are investigated. The validity of the present approach in predicting the quantitative and qualitative statistical responses is supported by utilizing Monte Carlo simulations. The present analysis without imposing restrictive analytical conditions can be directly derived by solving non-linear algebraic equations. The analytical solution gives reliable quantitative and qualitative prediction of mean and noise response for the Duffing system subjected to both sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation.

Keywords: cyclostationary, duffing system, Gaussian linearization, sinusoidal, white noise

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Authors: Pablo Enrique Sartor Del Giudice

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Penalty shootouts often decide the outcome of important soccer matches. Although usually referred to as ”lotteries”, there is evidence that some national teams and clubs consistently perform better than others. The outcomes are therefore not explained just by mere luck, and therefore there are ways to improve the average performance of players, naturally at the expense of some sort of effort. In this article we study the payoff of player performance improvements in terms of the performance of the team as a whole. To do so we develop an analytical model with static individual performances, as well as Monte Carlo models that take into account the known influence of partial score and round number on individual performances. We find that within a range of usual values, the team performance improves above 70% faster than individual performances do. Using these models, we also estimate that the new ABBA penalty shootout ordering under test reduces almost all the known bias in favor of the first-shooting team under the current ABAB system.

Keywords: football, penalty shootouts, Montecarlo simulation, ABBA

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Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

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This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, linear mixed model, multivariate conditional autoregressive model, spatial time series

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Authors: Leonardo C. Pacheco-Londoño, Nataly J Galan-Freyle, Lisandro Pacheco-Lugo, Antonio Acosta-Hoyos, Elkin Navarro, Gustavo Aroca-Martinez, Karin Rondón-Payares, Alberto C. Espinosa-Garavito, Samuel P. Hernández-Rivera

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At the Life Science Research Center at Simon Bolivar University, a primary focus is the diagnosis of various diseases, and the use of gold nanoparticles (Au-NPs) in diverse biomedical applications is continually expanding. In the present study, Au-NPs were employed as substrates for Surface-Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy (SERS) aimed at diagnosing kidney diseases arising from Lupus Nephritis (LN), preeclampsia (PC), and Hypertension (H). Discrimination models were developed for distinguishing patients with and without kidney diseases based on the SERS signals from urine samples by partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). A comparative study of the Raman signals across the three conditions was conducted, leading to the identification of potential metabolite signals. Model performance was assessed through cross-validation and external validation, determining parameters like sensitivity and specificity. Additionally, a secondary analysis was performed using machine learning (ML) models, wherein different ML algorithms were evaluated for their efficiency. Models’ validation was carried out using cross-validation and external validation, and other parameters were determined, such as sensitivity and specificity; the models showed average values of 0.9 for both parameters. Additionally, it is not possible to highlight this collaborative effort involved two university research centers and two healthcare institutions, ensuring ethical treatment and informed consent of patient samples.

Keywords: SERS, Raman, PLS-DA, kidney diseases

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: wind power, uncertainty, stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Renata Rank Miranda, Arandi Ginane Bezerra, Ciro Alberto Oliveira Ribeiro, Marco AntôNio Ferreira Randi, Carmen Lúcia Voigt, Lilian Skytte, Kaare Lund Rasmussen, Francisco Filipak Neto, Frank Kjeldsen

Abstract:

Synergetic and antagonistic effects of drugs are well-known concerns in pharmacological assessments of dose and toxicity. Similar approach should be used in assessing cellular uptake and cytotoxicity of nanoparticles. Since nanoparticles are released into the aquatic environment they may interact with existing xenobiotics. Here we used biochemical assays and quantitative proteomics to assess the cytotoxicity of silver nanoparticles (AgNP) when human hepatoma HepG2 cells were co-exposed to 2 nm AgNP together with either Cd2+ or Hg2+ ions. Time-course experiments (2h, 4h, and 24h) were conducted to assess the first response to the exposure studies. The general trend was that a synergetic toxicological response was observed in cells exposed to both AgNP and Cd2+ or Hg2+, with AgNP and Cd2+ being more toxic. This was observed by a significant increase in the ROS and superoxide level of >35% in the case of AgNP+Cd2+ compared to the sum of responses of AgNP and Cd2+, individually. Metabolic activity and viability also dropped more for AgNP+Cd2+ (>10%) than for AgNP and Cd2+ combined. We used inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry to investigate if AgNP facilitates larger influx of toxic metal ions into HepG2 cells. Only Hg2+ ions was found to be more efficiently engulfed as the concentration of Hg2+ was found 2.8 times larger compared to exposure experiments with only Hg2+. This effect was not observed for Cd2+. We now continue with deep proteomics studies to obtain wider details on the mechanism of the toxicity related to AgNP, Cd2+, and AgNP+Cd2+, respectively.

Keywords: nanotoxicology, silver nanoparticles, proteomics, human cell line

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Authors: Ivan D. Ortega, Juan D. Castro, Alberto Pertuz, Manuel Martinez

Abstract:

One of the problems considered when scientists talk about climate change is the necessity of utilizing renewable sources of energy, on this category there are many approaches to the problem, one of them is wind energy and wind turbines whose designs have frequently changed along many years trying to achieve a better overall performance on different conditions. From that situation, we get the two main types known today: Vertical and Horizontal axis wind turbines, which have acronyms VAWT and HAWT, respectively. This research aims to understand how well suited a composite material, which is still in development, made with natural origin fibers is for its implementation on vertical axis wind turbines blades under certain wind loads. The study consisted on acquiring the mechanical properties of the materials to be used which where bactris guineenis, also known as pama de lata in Colombia, and adhesive that acts as the matrix which had not been previously studied to the point required for this project. Then, a simplified 3D model of the airfoil was developed and tested under some preliminary loads using finite element analysis (FEA), these loads were acquired in the Colombian Chicamocha Canyon. Afterwards, a more realistic pressure profile was obtained using computational fluid dynamics which took into account the 3D shape of the complete blade and its rotation. Finally, the blade model was subjected to the wind loads using what is known as one way fluidstructure interaction (FSI) and its behavior analyzed to draw conclusions. The observed overall results were positive since the material behaved fairly as expected. Data suggests the material would be really useful in this kind of applications in small to medium size turbines if it is given more attention and time to develop.

Keywords: CFD, FEA, FSI, natural fiber, VAWT

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: Luca Vascelli, Silvia Iacomini, Giada Gueli, Francesca Cavallini, Carlo Cavallini, Federica Berardo

Abstract:

The study was conducted to evaluate the effect of training on Big 6 + 6 motor skills to promote daily living skills. Precision teaching (PT) suggests that improved speed of the component behaviors can lead to better performance of composite skills. This study assessed the effects of the repeated timed practice of component motor skills on speed and accuracy of composite skills related to daily living skills. An 18 years old adolescent with intellectual disability participated. A pre post probe single-subject design was used. The results suggest that the participant was able to perform the component skills at his individual aims (endurance was assessed). The speed and accuracy of composite skills were increased; stability and retention were also measured for the composite skill after the training.

Keywords: big 6+6, daily living skills, intellectual disability, precision teaching

Procedia PDF Downloads 132