Search results for: grey relation analysis
26944 Associated Map and Inter-Purchase Time Model for Multiple-Category Products
Authors: Ching-I Chen
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The continued rise of e-commerce is the main driver of the rapid growth of global online purchase. Consumers can nearly buy everything they want at one occasion through online shopping. The purchase behavior models which focus on single product category are insufficient to describe online shopping behavior. Therefore, analysis of multi-category purchase gets more and more popular. For example, market basket analysis explores customers’ buying tendency of the association between product categories. The information derived from market basket analysis facilitates to make cross-selling strategies and product recommendation system. To detect the association between different product categories, we use the market basket analysis with the multidimensional scaling technique to build an associated map which describes how likely multiple product categories are bought at the same time. Besides, we also build an inter-purchase time model for associated products to describe how likely a product will be bought after its associated product is bought. We classify inter-purchase time behaviors of multi-category products into nine types, and use a mixture regression model to integrate those behaviors under our assumptions of purchase sequences. Our sample data is from comScore which provides a panelist-label database that captures detailed browsing and buying behavior of internet users across the United States. Finding the inter-purchase time from books to movie is shorter than the inter-purchase time from movies to books. According to the model analysis and empirical results, this research finally proposes the applications and recommendations in the management.Keywords: multiple-category purchase behavior, inter-purchase time, market basket analysis, e-commerce
Procedia PDF Downloads 36826943 The Internet of Healthcare Things: A European Perspective and a Review of Ethical Concerns
Authors: M. Emmanouilidou
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The Internet of Things (IoT) is a disruptive technological paradigm that is at the center of the digital evolution by integrating physical and virtual worlds leading to the creation of extended interconnected ecosystems that are characterized as smart environments. The concept of the IoT has a broad range of applications in different industries including the healthcare sector. The Internet of Healthcare Things (IoHT), a branch of the IoT, is expected to bring promising benefits to all involved stakeholders and accelerate the revolution of the healthcare sector through a transition towards preventive and personalized medicine. The socio-economic challenges that the healthcare sector is facing further emphasize the need for a radical transformation of healthcare systems in both developed and developing countries with the role of pervasive technological innovations, such as IoHT, recognized as key to counteract the relevant challenges. Besides the number of potential opportunities that IoHT presents, there are fundamental ethical concerns that need to be considered and addressed in relation to the application of IoHT. This paper contributes to the discussion of the emerging topic of IoHT by providing an overview of the role and potential of IoHT, highlighting the characteristics of the current and future healthcare landscape, reporting on the up-to-date status of IoHT in Europe and reflecting upon existing research in the ethics of IoHT by incorporating additional ethical dimensions that have been ignored which can provide pathways for future research in the field.Keywords: ethics, Europe, healthcare, Internet of Things
Procedia PDF Downloads 13426942 Dynamics of the Landscape in the Different Colonization Models Implemented in the Legal Amazon
Authors: Valdir Moura, FranciléIa De Oliveira E. Silva, Erivelto Mercante, Ranieli Dos Anjos De Souza, Jerry Adriani Johann
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Several colonization projects were implemented in the Brazilian Legal Amazon in the 1970s and 1980s. Among all of these colonization projects, the most prominent were those with the Fishbone and Topographic models. Within this scope, the projects of settlements known as Anari and Machadinho were created, which stood out because they are contiguous areas with different models and structure of occupation and colonization. The main objective of this work was to evaluate the dynamics of Land-Use and Land-Cover (LULC) in two different colonization models, implanted in the State of Rondonia in the 1980s. The Fishbone and Topographic models were implanted in the Anari and Machadinho settlements respectively. The understanding of these two forms of occupation will help in future colonization programs of the Brazilian Legal Amazon. These settlements are contiguous areas with different occupancy structures. A 32-year Landsat time series (1984-2016) was used to evaluate the rates and trends in the LULC process in the different colonization models. In the different occupation models analyzed, the results showed a rapid loss of primary and secondary forests (deforestation), mainly due to the dynamics of use, established by the Agriculture/Pasture (A/P) relation and, with heavy dependence due to road construction.Keywords: land-cover, deforestation, rate fragments, remote sensing, secondary succession
Procedia PDF Downloads 13526941 Sparse Principal Component Analysis: A Least Squares Approximation Approach
Authors: Giovanni Merola
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Sparse Principal Components Analysis aims to find principal components with few non-zero loadings. We derive such sparse solutions by adding a genuine sparsity requirement to the original Principal Components Analysis (PCA) objective function. This approach differs from others because it preserves PCA's original optimality: uncorrelatedness of the components and least squares approximation of the data. To identify the best subset of non-zero loadings we propose a branch-and-bound search and an iterative elimination algorithm. This last algorithm finds sparse solutions with large loadings and can be run without specifying the cardinality of the loadings and the number of components to compute in advance. We give thorough comparisons with the existing sparse PCA methods and several examples on real datasets.Keywords: SPCA, uncorrelated components, branch-and-bound, backward elimination
Procedia PDF Downloads 38126940 Airon Project: IoT-Based Agriculture System for the Optimization of Irrigation Water Consumption
Authors: África Vicario, Fernando J. Álvarez, Felipe Parralejo, Fernando Aranda
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The irrigation systems of traditional agriculture, such as gravity-fed irrigation, produce a great waste of water because, generally, there is no control over the amount of water supplied in relation to the water needed. The AIRON Project tries to solve this problem by implementing an IoT-based system to sensor the irrigation plots so that the state of the crops and the amount of water used for irrigation can be known remotely. The IoT system consists of a sensor network that measures the humidity of the soil, the weather conditions (temperature, relative humidity, wind and solar radiation) and the irrigation water flow. The communication between this network and a central gateway is conducted by means of long-range wireless communication that depends on the characteristics of the irrigation plot. The main objective of the AIRON project is to deploy an IoT sensor network in two different plots of the irrigation community of Aranjuez in the Spanish region of Madrid. The first plot is 2 km away from the central gateway, so LoRa has been used as the base communication technology. The problem with this plot is the absence of mains electric power, so devices with energy-saving modes have had to be used to maximize the external batteries' use time. An ESP32 SOC board with a LoRa module is employed in this case to gather data from the sensor network and send them to a gateway consisting of a Raspberry Pi with a LoRa hat. The second plot is located 18 km away from the gateway, a range that hampers the use of LoRa technology. In order to establish reliable communication in this case, the long-term evolution (LTE) standard is used, which makes it possible to reach much greater distances by using the cellular network. As mains electric power is available in this plot, a Raspberry Pi has been used instead of the ESP32 board to collect sensor data. All data received from the two plots are stored on a proprietary server located at the irrigation management company's headquarters. The analysis of these data by means of machine learning algorithms that are currently under development should allow a short-term prediction of the irrigation water demand that would significantly reduce the waste of this increasingly valuable natural resource. The major finding of this work is the real possibility of deploying a remote sensing system for irrigated plots by using Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) devices, easily scalable and adaptable to design requirements such as the distance to the control center or the availability of mains electrical power at the site.Keywords: internet of things, irrigation water control, LoRa, LTE, smart farming
Procedia PDF Downloads 8426939 Sterilization Incident Analysis by the Association of Litigation and Risk Management Method
Authors: Souhir Chelly, Asma Ben Cheikh, Hela Ghali, Salwa Khefacha, Lamine Dhidah, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Houyem Said Latiri
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The hospital risk management department is firstly involved in the methodological analysis of grade zero sterilization incidents. The system is based on a subsequent analysis process in compliance with the ongoing requirements of the Haute Autorité de santé (HAS) for a reactive approach to risk, allowing to identify failures and start the appropriate preventive and corrective measures. The use of the association of litigation and risk management (ALARM) method makes easier the grade zero analysis and brings to light the team or institutional, organizational, temporal, individual factors representative of undesirable effects. Two main factors come out again from this analysis, pre-disinfection step of the emergency block unsupervised instrumentalist intern was poorly done since she did not remove the battery from micro air motor. At the sterilization unit, the worker who was not supervised by the nurse did the conditioning of the motor without having checked it if it still contained the battery. The main cause is that the management of human resources was inadequate at both levels, the instrumental trainee in the block who was not supervised by his supervisor and the worker of the sterilization unit who was not supervised by the responsible nurse. There is a lack of research help, advice, and collaboration. The difficulties encountered during this type of analysis are multiple. The first is based on its necessary acceptance by the various actors of care involved, which should not perceive it as a tool leading to individual punishment, but rather as a means to improve their practices.Keywords: ALARM (Association of Litigation and Risk Management Method), incident, risk management, sterilization
Procedia PDF Downloads 21326938 Investigation of Maritime Accidents with Exploratory Data Analysis in the Strait of Çanakkale (Dardanelles)
Authors: Gizem Kodak
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The Strait of Çanakkale, together with the Strait of Istanbul and the Sea of Marmara, form the Turkish Straits System. In other words, the Strait of Çanakkale is the southern gate of the system that connects the Black Sea countries with the other countries of the world. Due to the heavy maritime traffic, it is important to scientifically examine the accident characteristics in the region. In particular, the results indicated by the descriptive statistics are of critical importance in order to strengthen the safety of navigation. At this point, exploratory data analysis offers strategic outputs in terms of defining the problem and knowing the strengths and weaknesses against possible accident risk. The study aims to determine the accident characteristics in the Strait of Çanakkale with temporal and spatial analysis of historical data, using Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) as the research method. The study's results will reveal the general characteristics of maritime accidents in the region and form the infrastructure for future studies. Therefore, the text provides a clear description of the research goals and methodology, and the study's contributions are well-defined.Keywords: maritime accidents, EDA, Strait of Çanakkale, navigational safety
Procedia PDF Downloads 9726937 1/Sigma Term Weighting Scheme for Sentiment Analysis
Authors: Hanan Alshaher, Jinsheng Xu
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Large amounts of data on the web can provide valuable information. For example, product reviews help business owners measure customer satisfaction. Sentiment analysis classifies texts into two polarities: positive and negative. This paper examines movie reviews and tweets using a new term weighting scheme, called one-over-sigma (1/sigma), on benchmark datasets for sentiment classification. The proposed method aims to improve the performance of sentiment classification. The results show that 1/sigma is more accurate than the popular term weighting schemes. In order to verify if the entropy reflects the discriminating power of terms, we report a comparison of entropy values for different term weighting schemes.Keywords: 1/sigma, natural language processing, sentiment analysis, term weighting scheme, text classification
Procedia PDF Downloads 20226936 The Interethnic Communication Apprehension Experiences of Indigenous Peoples in the Philippines
Authors: Christine Alvarez, Rio Gojar, Hannah Jimala
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The Philippines is a large country composed of geographic islands and distinct cultural groups. But what makes such a diverse country connect and communicate with one another? This case study examines the narrative of lived experiences expressed by the selected indigenous peoples through an in-depth interview. Based on the results, some indigenous peoples feel that they are motivated to engage in interethnic discussions that concern their ethnic identity and such cultural misconceptions about them. Their experiences in being involved in indigenous people centered and community/academic organizations helped them in every interethnic communication. After all, some indigenous peoples expressed that they find their own communities as a safe space. Although indigenous peoples present less interethnic communication apprehension, its existence is still manifested in their experiences in verbal communication, non-verbal communication, and mediated communication. Lastly, their Interethnic Communication Apprehension manifested on their innate and learned personality whenever there is a large crowd, and is affected by their socioeconomic status. This study mainly focuses on what are the interethnic communication apprehension experiences of indigenous peoples in the country. Concepts are applied from the Contextual Theory of Interethnic Communication theory, Interethnic Communication Apprehension, and other types of communication. Meanwhile, the participants are determined through a purposive sampling with the criteria as indigenous people who stays in Manila in pursuit of higher education.Keywords: ethnic identity, interethnic relation, intercultural communication, indigenous people community
Procedia PDF Downloads 11326935 The Ludic Exception and the Permanent Emergency: Understanding the Emergency Regimes with the Concept of Play
Authors: Mete Ulaş Aksoy
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In contemporary politics, the state of emergency has become a permanent and salient feature of politics. This study aims to clarify the anthropological and ontological dimensions of the permanent state of emergency. It pays special attention to the structural relation between the exception and play. Focusing on the play in the context of emergency and exception enables the recognition of the difference and sometimes the discrepancy between the exception and emergency, which has passed into oblivion because of the frequency and normalization of emergency situations. This study coins the term “ludic exception” in order to highlight the difference between the exceptions in which exuberance and paroxysm rule over the socio-political life and the permanent emergency that protects the authority with a sort of extra-legality. The main thesis of the study is that the ludic elements such as risk, conspicuous consumption, sacrificial gestures, agonism, etc. circumscribe the exceptional moments temporarily, preventing them from being routine and normal. The study also emphasizes the decline of ludic elements in modernity as the main factor in the transformation of the exceptions into permanent emergency situations. In the introduction, the relationship between play and exception is taken into consideration. In the second part, the study elucidates the concept of ludic exceptions and dwells on the anthropological examples of the ludic exceptions. In the last part, the decline of ludic elements in modernity is addressed as the main factor for the permanent emergency.Keywords: emergency, exception, ludic exception, play, sovereignty
Procedia PDF Downloads 9026934 Coupling Concept of Two Parallel Research Codes for Two and Three Dimensional Fluid Structure Interaction Analysis
Authors: Luciano Garelli, Marco Schauer, Jorge D’Elia, Mario A. Storti, Sabine C. Langer
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This paper discuss a coupling strategy of two different software packages to provide fluid structure interaction (FSI) analysis. The basic idea is to combine the advantages of the two codes to create a powerful FSI solver for two and three dimensional analysis. The fluid part is computed by a program called PETSc-FEM, a software developed at Centro de Investigación de Métodos Computacionales (CIMEC). The structural part of the coupled process is computed by the research code elementary Parallel Solver (elPaSo) of the Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institut für Konstruktionstechnik (IK).Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), fluid structure interaction (FSI), finite element method (FEM), software
Procedia PDF Downloads 55326933 Genetic Diversity Analysis in Triticum Aestivum Using Microsatellite Markers
Authors: Prachi Sharma, Mukesh Kumar Rana
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In the present study, the simple sequence repeat(SSR) markers have been used in analysis of genetic diversity of 37 genotypes of Triticum aestivum. The DNA was extracted using cTAB method. The DNA was quantified using the fluorimeter. The annealing temperatures for 27 primer pairs were standardized using gradient PCR, out of which 16 primers gave satisfactory amplification at temperature ranging from 50-62⁰ C. Out of 16 polymorphic SSR markers only 10 SSR primer pairs were used in the study generating 34 reproducible amplicons among 37 genotypes out of which 30 were polymorphic. Primer pairs Xgwm533, Xgwm 160, Xgwm 408, Xgwm 120, Xgwm 186, Xgwm 261 produced maximum percent of polymorphic bands (100%). The bands ranged on an average of 3.4 bands per primer. The genetic relationship was determined using Jaccard pair wise similarity co-efficient and UPGMA cluster analysis with NTSYS Pc.2 software. The values of similarity index range from 0-1. The similarity coefficient ranged from 0.13 to 0.97. A minimum genetic similarity (0.13) was observed between VL 804 and HPW 288, meaning they are only 13% similar. More number of available SSR markers can be useful for supporting the genetic diversity analysis in the above wheat genotypes.Keywords: wheat, genetic diversity, microsatellite, polymorphism
Procedia PDF Downloads 61426932 Sharia Non-Compliant Transactions and Disclosure by Islamic Banks: Content Analysis of Annual Reports
Authors: Mehriban Ahmadova
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Country of origin has been found to be an important determinant of the level of corporate social disclosure. The purpose of this study is to investigate the differences of corporate social disclosure, including sharia non-compliant information, by Islamic banks. The study applies content analysis approach of annual reports of fully-fledged Islamic banks from 24 countries. International differences are found in terms of level, methods and location of disclosure.Keywords: Content analysis, Corporate social disclosure, Islamic banks, Sharia non-compliant disclosure
Procedia PDF Downloads 15126931 Numerical Studying the Real Analysis of the Seismic Response of the Soil
Authors: Noureddine Litim
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This work is to theoretical and numerical studying the real analysis of the seismic response of the soil with an Elasto-plastic behavior. To perform this analysis, we used different core drilling performed at the tunnel T4 in El Horace section of the highway east-west. The two-dimensional model (2d) was established by the code of finite element plaxis to estimate the displacement amplification and accelerations caused by the seismic wave in the different core drilling and compared with the factor of acceleration given by the RPA (2003) in the area studying. Estimate the displacement amplification and accelerations caused by the seismic wave.Keywords: seismic response, deposition of soil, plaxis, elasto-plastic
Procedia PDF Downloads 10526930 Ideas for Musical Activities and Games in the Early Year (IMAGINE-Autism): A Case Study Approach
Authors: Tania Lisboa, Angela Voyajolu, Adam Ockelford
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The positive impact of music on the development of children with autism is widely acknowledged: music offers a unique channel for communication, wellbeing and self-regulation, as well as access to culture and a means of creative engagement. Yet, no coherent program exists for parents, carers and teachers to follow with their children in the early years, when the need for interventions is often most acute. Hence, research and the development of resources is urgently required. Autism is a project with children on the autism spectrum. The project aims at promoting the participants’ engagement with music through involvement in specially-designed musical activities with parents and carers. The main goal of the research is to verify the effectiveness of newly designed resources and strategies, which are based on the Sounds of Intent in the Early Years (SoI-EY) framework of musical development. This is a pilot study, comprising case studies of five children with autism in the early years. The data comprises semi-structured interviews, observations of videos, and feedback from parents on resources. Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis was chosen to analyze the interviews. The video data was coded in relation to the SoI-EY framework. The feedback from parents was used to evaluate the resources (i.e. musical activity cards). The participants’ wider development was also assessed through selected elements of the Early Years Foundation Stage (EYFS), a national assessment framework used in England: specifically, communication, language and social-emotional development. Five families of children on the autism spectrum (aged between 4-8 years) participated in the pilot. The research team visited each family 4 times over a 3-month period, during which the children were observed, and musical activities were suggested based on the child’s assessed level of musical development. Parents then trialed the activities, providing feedback and gathering further video observations of their child’s musical engagement between visits. The results of one case study will be featured in this paper, in which the evidence suggests that specifically tailored musical activity may promote communication and social engagement for a child with language difficulties on the autism spectrum. The resources were appropriate for the children’s involvement in musical activities. Findings suggest that non-specialist musical engagement with family and carers can be a powerful means to foster communication. The case study featured in this paper illustrates this with a child of limited verbal ability. There is a need for further research and development of resources that can be made available to all those working with children on the autism spectrum.Keywords: autism, development, music education, resources
Procedia PDF Downloads 10326929 The Free Vibration Analysis of Honeycomb Sandwich Beam using 3D and Continuum Model
Authors: Gürkan Şakar, Fevzi Çakmak Bolat
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In this study free vibration analysis of aluminum honeycomb sandwich structures were carried out experimentally and numerically. The natural frequencies and mode shapes of sandwich structures fabricated with different configurations for clamped-free boundary condition were determined. The effects of lower and upper face sheet thickness, the core material thickness, cell diameter, cell angle and foil thickness on the vibration characteristics were examined. The numerical studies were performed with ANSYS package. While the sandwich structures were modeled in ANSYS the continuum model was used. Later, the numerical results were compared with the experimental findings.Keywords: sandwich structure, free vibration, numeric analysis, 3D model, continuum model
Procedia PDF Downloads 41726928 Religious Discrimination Against Small Business Owners: Evidence from the 1875 Cadastral Survey of Istanbul
Authors: Burak Unveren, Ecem Uygun, Özdemi̇r Teke
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A large body of literature documents how the Ottoman Empire's economic decline in relation to Western Europe was exacerbated by the unequal legal treatment of its subjects based on creed. Motivated by this debate, we empirically explore whether property taxes collected from businesses in Istanbul discriminated against or favored non-Muslims after the cadastral survey of the capital in 1875. The survey was conducted to determine the property taxes. And the process was potentially susceptible to the biased views of the surveyors who calculated the taxes payable via their subjective appraisals of all real properties. According to our results, in contrast to widely held beliefs regarding 19th-century Istanbul, the number of Muslim shop owners is higher than that of non-Muslims. Moreover, we find evidence for taxes collected from non-Muslim shop and store owners to be higher compared to Muslims, even after controlling for all physical features (e.g., size, location, etc.). These results directly pertain to the fiscal capacity of the Ottoman state and its economic divergence from Europe in the 19th century. Surprisingly, the data also indicates no statistically different tax differentials between male and female property owners.Keywords: economic history, taxation, small business, discrimination
Procedia PDF Downloads 7026927 Environmental and Economic Analysis of Absorption Air Conditioning Unit Onboard Marine Vehicles: Case Study of Passenger Vessel
Authors: Ibrahim S. Seddiek, Nader R. Ammar
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One of the most important equipment that affects the performance of passenger ships is the air conditioning system, which in turn consumes considerable electric loads. In this paper, the waste heat energies of exhaust gases and jacket cooling water of marine diesel engines for these ships are analyzed to be used as heat sources for absorption refrigeration unit (ARU). Economic and environmental analysis of the absorption refrigeration cycle operated with the two heat sources that use lithium bromide as absorbent is carried out. In addition, environmental and economic analysis for the absorption cycle is performed. As a case study, high-speed passenger vessel operating in the Red Sea area has been investigated. The results show that a considerable specific economic benefit could be achieved in case of applying absorption air condition that operates by water cooling system over that operates by main engine exhaust gases. Environmentally, applying ARU machine during cruise will reduce total ship’s fuel consumption by about 104 ton per year. This will result in reducing NOₓ, SOₓ, and CO₂ emissions with cost-effectiveness of 6.99 $/kg, 18.44 $/kg, and 0.117 $/kg, respectively.Keywords: ship emissions, IMO, lithium bromide-water ARU, analysis, thermodynamic, economic and environmental analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 28426926 Flow Characteristic Analysis for Hatch Type Air Vent Head of Bulk Cargo Ship by Computational Fluid Dynamics
Authors: Hanik Park, Kyungsook Jeon, Suchul Shin, Youngchul Park
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The air vent head prevents the inflow of seawater into the cargo holds when it is used for the ballast tank on heavy weather. In this study, the flow characteristics and the grid size were created by the application of Computational Fluid Dynamics by taking into the consideration of comparison of test results. Then, the accuracy of the analysis was verified by comparing with experimental results. Based on this analysis, accurate turbulence model and grid size can be selected. Thus, the design characteristic of air vent head for bulk carrier contributes the reliability based on the research results.Keywords: bulk carrier, FEM, SST, vent
Procedia PDF Downloads 51826925 Principles and Guidance for the Last Days of Life: Te Ara Whakapiri
Authors: Tania Chalton
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In June 2013, an independent review of the Liverpool Care Pathway (LCP) identified a number of problems with the implementation of the LCP in the UK and recommended that it be replaced by individual care plans for each patient. As a result of the UK findings, in November 2013 the Ministry of Health (MOH) commissioned the Palliative Care Council to initiate a programme of work to investigate an appropriate approach for the care of people in their last days of life in New Zealand (NZ). The Last Days of Life Working Group commenced a process to develop national consensus on the care of people in their last days of life in April 2014. In order to develop its advice for the future provision of care to people in their last days of life, the Working Group (WG) established a comprehensive work programme and as a result has developed a series of working papers. Specific areas of focus included: An analysis of the UK Independent Review findings and an assessment of these findings to the NZ context. A stocktake of services providing care to people in their last days of life, including aged residential care (ARC); hospices; hospitals; and primary care. International and NZ literature reviews of evidence and best practice. Survey of family to understand the consumer perspective on the care of people in their last days of life. Key aspects of care that required further considerations for NZ were: Terminology: clarify terminology used in the last days of life and in relation to death and dying. Evidenced based: including specific review of evidence regarding, spiritual, culturally appropriate care as well as dementia care. Diagnosis of dying: need for both guidance around the diagnosis of dying and communication with family. Workforce issues: access to an appropriate workforce after hours. Nutrition and hydration: guidance around appropriate approaches to nutrition and hydration. Symptom and pain management: guidance around symptom management. Documentation: documentation of the person’s care which is robust enough for data collection and auditing requirements, not ‘tick box’ approach to care. Education and training: improved consistency and access to appropriate education and training. Leadership: A dedicated team or person to support and coordinate the introduction and implementation of any last days of life model of care. Quality indicators and data collection: model of care to enable auditing and regular reviews to ensure on-going quality improvement. Cultural and spiritual: address and incorporate any cultural and spiritual aspects. A final document was developed incorporating all the evidence which provides guidance to the health sector on best practice for people at end of life: “Principles and guidance for the last days of life: Te Ara Whakapiri”.Keywords: end of life, guidelines, New Zealand, palliative care
Procedia PDF Downloads 43426924 Subjective Probability and the Intertemporal Dimension of Probability to Correct the Misrelation Between Risk and Return of a Financial Asset as Perceived by Investors. Extension of Prospect Theory to Better Describe Risk Aversion
Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre
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From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the expected value are directly proportional, in the sense that the market allows a greater result to those who are willing to take a greater risk. However, empirical evidence proves that this relationship is distorted in the minds of investors and is perceived exactly the opposite. To deepen and understand the discrepancy between the actual actions of the investor and the theoretical predictions, this paper analyzes the essential parameters used for the valuation of financial assets with greater attention to two elements: probability and the passage of time. Although these may seem at first glance to be two distinct elements, they are closely related. In particular, the error in the theoretical description of the relationship between risk and return lies in the failure to consider the impatience that is generated in the decision-maker when events that have not yet happened occur in the decision-making context. In this context, probability loses its objective meaning and in relation to the psychological aspects of the investor, it can only be understood as the degree of confidence that the investor has in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Moreover, the concept of objective probability does not consider the inter-temporality that characterizes financial activities and does not consider the condition of limited cognitive capacity of the decision maker. Cognitive psychology has made it possible to understand that the mind acts with a compromise between quality and effort when faced with very complex choices. To evaluate an event that has not yet happened, it is necessary to imagine that it happens in your head. This projection into the future requires a cognitive effort and is what differentiates choices under conditions of risk and choices under conditions of uncertainty. In fact, since the receipt of the outcome in choices under risk conditions is imminent, the mechanism of self-projection into the future is not necessary to imagine the consequence of the choice and the decision makers dwell on the objective analysis of possibilities. Financial activities, on the other hand, develop over time and the objective probability is too static to consider the anticipatory emotions that the self-projection mechanism generates in the investor. Assuming that uncertainty is inherent in valuations of events that have not yet occurred, the focus must shift from risk management to uncertainty management. Only in this way the intertemporal dimension of the decision-making environment and the haste generated by the financial market can be cautioned and considered. The work considers an extension of the prospectus theory with the temporal component with the aim of providing a description of the attitude towards risk with respect to the passage of time.Keywords: impatience, risk aversion, subjective probability, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 10726923 The Effects of Cow Manure Treated by Fruit Beetle Larvae, Waxworms and Tiger Worms on Plant Growth in Relation to Its Use as Potting Compost
Authors: Waleed S. Alwaneen
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Dairy industry is flourishing in world to provide milk and milk products to local population. Besides milk products, dairy industries also generate a substantial amount of cow manure that significantly affects the environment. Moreover, heat produced during the decomposition of the cow manure adversely affects the crop germination. Different companies are producing vermicompost using different species of worms/larvae to overcome the harmful effects using fresh manure. Tiger worm treatment enhanced plant growth, especially in the compost-manure ratio (75% compost, 25% cow manure), followed by a ratio of 50% compost, 50% cow manure. Results also indicated that plant growth in Waxworm treated manure was weak as compared to plant growth in compost treated with Fruit Beetle (FB), Waxworms (WW), and Control (C) especially in the compost (25% compost, 75% cow manure) and 100% cow manure where there was no growth at all. Freshplant weight, fresh leaf weight and fresh root weight were significantly higher in the compost treated with Tiger worms in (75% compost, 25% cow manure); no evidence was seen for any significant differences in the dry root weight measurement between FB, Tiger worms (TW), WW, Control (C) in all composts. TW produced the best product, especially at the compost ratio of 75% compost, 25% cow manure followed by 50% compost, 50% cow manure.Keywords: fruit beetle, tiger worms, waxworms, control
Procedia PDF Downloads 13426922 Combining Corpus Linguistics and Critical Discourse Analysis to Study Power Relations in Hindi Newspapers
Authors: Vandana Mishra, Niladri Sekhar Dash, Jayshree Charkraborty
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This present paper focuses on the application of corpus linguistics techniques for critical discourse analysis (CDA) of Hindi newspapers. While Corpus linguistics is the study of language as expressed in corpora (samples) of 'real world' text, CDA is an interdisciplinary approach to the study of discourse that views language as a form of social practice. CDA has mainly been studied from a qualitative perspective. However, we can say that recent studies have begun combining corpus linguistics with CDA in analyzing large volumes of text for the study of existing power relations in society. The corpus under our study is also of a sizable amount (1 million words of Hindi newspaper texts) and its analysis requires an alternative analytical procedure. So, we have combined both the quantitative approach i.e. the use of corpus techniques with CDA’s traditional qualitative analysis. In this context, we have focused on the Keyword Analysis Sorting Concordance Lines of the selected Keywords and calculating collocates of the keywords. We have made use of the Wordsmith Tool for all these analysis. The analysis starts with identifying the keywords in the political news corpus when compared with the main news corpus. The keywords are extracted from the corpus based on their keyness calculated through statistical tests like chi-squared test and log-likelihood test on the frequent words of the corpus. Some of the top occurring keywords are मोदी (Modi), भाजपा (BJP), कांग्रेस (Congress), सरकार (Government) and पार्टी (Political party). This is followed by the concordance analysis of these keywords which generates thousands of lines but we have to select few lines and examine them based on our objective. We have also calculated the collocates of the keywords based on their Mutual Information (MI) score. Both concordance and collocation help to identify lexical patterns in the political texts. Finally, all these quantitative results derived from the corpus techniques will be subjectively interpreted in accordance to the CDA’s theory to examine the ways in which political news discourse produces social and political inequality, power abuse or domination.Keywords: critical discourse analysis, corpus linguistics, Hindi newspapers, power relations
Procedia PDF Downloads 22426921 Time Series Analysis on the Production of Fruit Juice: A Case Study of National Horticultural Research Institute (Nihort) Ibadan, Oyo State
Authors: Abiodun Ayodele Sanyaolu
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The research was carried out to investigate the time series analysis on quarterly production of fruit juice at the National Horticultural Research Institute Ibadan from 2010 to 2018. Documentary method of data collection was used, and the method of least square and moving average were used in the analysis. From the calculation and the graph, it was glaring that there was increase, decrease, and uniform movements in both the graph of the original data and the tabulated quarter values of the original data. Time series analysis was used to detect the trend in the highest number of fruit juice and it appears to be good over a period of time and the methods used to forecast are additive and multiplicative models. Since it was observed that the production of fruit juice is usually high in January of every year, it is strongly advised that National Horticultural Research Institute should make more provision for fruit juice storage outside this period of the year.Keywords: fruit juice, least square, multiplicative models, time series
Procedia PDF Downloads 14226920 Modeling of Ductile Fracture Using Stress-Modified Critical Strain Criterion for Typical Pressure Vessel Steel
Authors: Carlos Cuenca, Diego Sarzosa
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Ductile fracture occurs by the mechanism of void nucleation, void growth and coalescence. Potential sites for initiation are second phase particles or non-metallic inclusions. Modelling of ductile damage at the microscopic level is very difficult and complex task for engineers. Therefore, conservative predictions of ductile failure using simple models are necessary during the design and optimization of critical structures like pressure vessels and pipelines. Nowadays, it is well known that the initiation phase is strongly influenced by the stress triaxiality and plastic deformation at the microscopic level. Thus, a simple model used to study the ductile failure under multiaxial stress condition is the Stress Modified Critical Strain (SMCS) approach. Ductile rupture has been study for a structural steel under different stress triaxiality conditions using the SMCS method. Experimental tests are carried out to characterize the relation between stress triaxiality and equivalent plastic strain by notched round bars. After calibration of the plasticity and damage properties, predictions are made for low constraint bending specimens with and without side grooves. Stress/strain fields evolution are compared between the different geometries. Advantages and disadvantages of the SMCS methodology are discussed.Keywords: damage, SMSC, SEB, steel, failure
Procedia PDF Downloads 29726919 Extended Boolean Petri Nets Generating N-Ary Trees
Authors: Riddhi Jangid, Gajendra Pratap Singh
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Petri nets, a mathematical tool, is used for modeling in different areas of computer sciences, biological networks, chemical systems and many other disciplines. A Petri net model of a given system is created by the graphical representation that describes the properties and behavior of the system. While looking for the behavior of any system, 1-safe Petri nets are of particular interest to many in the application part. Boolean Petri nets correspond to those class in 1- safe Petri nets that generate all the binary n-vectors in their reachability analysis. We study the class by changing different parameters like the token counts in the places and how the structure of the tree changes in the reachability analysis. We discuss here an extended class of Boolean Petri nets that generates n-ary trees in their reachability-based analysis.Keywords: marking vector, n-vector, petri nets, reachability
Procedia PDF Downloads 8226918 Analysis of Maintenance Operations in an Industrial Bakery Line
Authors: Mehmet Savsar
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This paper presents a practical case application of simulation modeling and analysis in a specific industrial setting. Various maintenance related parameters of the equipment in the system under consideration are determined and a simulation model is developed to study system behavior. System performance is determined based on established parameters and operational policies, which included system operation with and without preventive maintenance implementation. The results show that preventive maintenance practice has significant effects on improving system productivity. The simulation procedures outlined in this paper can be used by operation managers to perform production line analysis under different maintenance policies in various industrial settings.Keywords: simulation, production line, machine failures, maintenance, industrial bakery
Procedia PDF Downloads 48726917 Fiqh Al Aqalliyat (Jurisprude for Muslim Minorities): An Emerging Discourse for Western Minorities
Authors: Sana Tahzeeb
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Role of Muslim minority in a democratic state has been the most debatable as well as attractive issue in the writings of the contemporary Muslim scholars, never discussed in the classical Islamic literature of history. Islam as a dominant religion has been the issue of academic discussions in the entire classical literature of Islamic jurisprudence the division of world into Dar al-Islam (abode of Islam), Dar al-Harb (abode of war) has been the main division on the basis of which Islam’s relation with the remaining world were defined and formulated. Now living in a global society the classical division of territories seems to be irrelevant. The new division of the same became necessary in the present situation particularly in view of the pluralistic society and need of power sharing in non-Muslim countries. It is important to note that a number of Muslim scholars of modern period examined this problem and other issues of Muslim minorities from legal point of view. Fiqh al-Aqalliyat is a newly developed discipline of Islamic jurisprudence. The rationale for this development is that there are so many issues of the Muslim minorities particularly in the European countries which are required to be discussed and examined juridically by Muslim jurists and scholars. There was also need for reinterpreting the term Dar al-Harb and relevance of its applicability to the west. The present paper shed a light on these emerging trends in Islamic world.Keywords: fiqh al Aqalliyat, Muslim minorities, Europe, Islam
Procedia PDF Downloads 36726916 Meeting Places in the Urban Strategy to Build a Happy City: A Mixed Research Approach
Authors: J. Szoltysek, S. Twarog
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The happy city, as the desired effect of changes implemented by cities, involves the deliberate and purposeful evolution of material and spiritual space in which residents pursue happiness, as it is perceived collectively and individually. The quality of life (QoL) has, for many years, been researched as one of the dimensions of happiness. Both literature studies and the observation of how cities function lead to the conclusion that the happy city is the city of meetings. The importance of meeting spaces in cities for the quality of life has been confirmed also for Polish cities and, as a result, the conclusions may be drawn that public space should be planned in such a manner so as to tailor it – to the greatest possible degree – to the needs of the residents of Polish cities. The study embraced both Polish and foreign data concerning both the dimension of the quality of life in cities and the issues related to the existence of common spaces where meetings take place. Both quantitative and qualitative analytical techniques have been used to analyze and interpret the data collected. We sought the answers to the questions on the significance of the factors, identified by the respondents, which affect the QoL in a city. We identified 9 mega factors: being, work, education, recreation, health and safety, mobility, neighborhood, acceptance, agora. We established the preferences of the QoL in relation to the size of a city and the public spaces, that seem to be the cornerstone of the happy city.Keywords: city, meetings, public spaces, social cohesion, quality of life
Procedia PDF Downloads 18926915 Proposing Sky Exposure Plane Concept for Urban Open Public Spaces in Gulseren Street
Authors: Pooya Lotfabadi
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In today's world, sustainability is a critical concern, particularly in the building industry, which is a significant contributor to energy consumption. Buildings must be considered in relation to their urban surroundings, highlighting the importance of collaboration between architecture and urban design. Natural light plays a vital role in enhancing a building's thermal and visual comfort and promoting the well-being of outdoor residents. Therefore, architects and urban designers are responsible for maximizing sunlight exposure in urban settings. Key factors such as building height and orientation are essential for optimizing natural light. Without proper attention, standalone projects can negatively affect their urban environment. Regulations like the Sky Exposure Plane- a virtual sloping plane that determines minimum building heights and spacing- serve as effective tools for guiding urban development. This study aims to define the Sky Exposure Plane in public open spaces, proposing an optimal angle for buildings on Gulseren Street in Famagusta, North Cyprus. Utilizing computer simulations, the research examines the role of sunlight in public streets and offers guidelines to improve natural lighting in urban planning.Keywords: public open space, sky exposure plane, street natural lighting, sustainable urban design
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