Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 502

# Search results for: backward elimination

##### 502 System of Linear Equations, Gaussian Elimination

Abstract:

In this paper linear equations are discussed in detail along with elimination method. Gaussian elimination and Gauss Jordan schemes are carried out to solve the linear system of equation. This paper comprises of matrix introduction, and the direct methods for linear equations. The goal of this research was to analyze different elimination techniques of linear equations and measure the performance of Gaussian elimination and Gauss Jordan method, in order to find their relative importance and advantage in the field of symbolic and numeric computation. The purpose of this research is to revise an introductory concept of linear equations, matrix theory and forms of Gaussian elimination through which the performance of Gauss Jordan and Gaussian elimination can be measured.

Keywords: direct, indirect, backward stage, forward stage

##### 501 A Comparative Study of Additive and Nonparametric Regression Estimators and Variable Selection Procedures

Authors: Adriano Z. Zambom, Preethi Ravikumar

Abstract:

One of the biggest challenges in nonparametric regression is the curse of dimensionality. Additive models are known to overcome this problem by estimating only the individual additive effects of each covariate. However, if the model is misspecified, the accuracy of the estimator compared to the fully nonparametric one is unknown. In this work the efficiency of completely nonparametric regression estimators such as the Loess is compared to the estimators that assume additivity in several situations, including additive and non-additive regression scenarios. The comparison is done by computing the oracle mean square error of the estimators with regards to the true nonparametric regression function. Then, a backward elimination selection procedure based on the Akaike Information Criteria is proposed, which is computed from either the additive or the nonparametric model. Simulations show that if the additive model is misspecified, the percentage of time it fails to select important variables can be higher than that of the fully nonparametric approach. A dimension reduction step is included when nonparametric estimator cannot be computed due to the curse of dimensionality. Finally, the Boston housing dataset is analyzed using the proposed backward elimination procedure and the selected variables are identified. Downloads 188
##### 500 Backward Erosion Piping through Vertically Layered Sands

Authors: K. Vandenboer, L. Dolphen, A. Bezuijen

Abstract:

Backward erosion piping is an important failure mechanism for water-retaining structures, a phenomenon that results in the formation of shallow pipes at the interface of a sandy or silty foundation and a cohesive cover layer. This paper studies the effect of two soil types on backward erosion piping; both in case of a homogeneous sand layer, and in a vertically layered sand sample, where the pipe is forced to subsequently grow through the different layers. Two configurations with vertical sand layers are tested; they both result in wider pipes and higher critical gradients, thereby making this an interesting topic in research on measures to prevent backward erosion piping failures. Downloads 311
##### 499 The Comparison of Backward and Forward Running Program on Balance Development and Plantar Flexion Force in Pre Seniors: Healthy Approach

Abstract:

Backward running is commonly used in different sports conditioning, motor learning, and neurological purposes, and even more commonly in physical rehabilitation. The present study evaluated the effects of six weeks backward and forward running methods on balance promotion adaptation in students. 12 male and female preseniors with the age range of 45-60 years participated and were randomly classified into two groups of backward running (n: 6) and forward running (n: 6) training interventions. During six weeks, 3 sessions per week, all subjects underwent stated different models of backward and forward running training on treadmill (65-80 of HR max). Pre and post-tests were performed by force plate and electromyogram, two times before and after intervention. Data were analyzed using by T test. On the basis of obtained data, significant differences were recorded on balance and plantar flexion force in backward running (BR) and no difference for forward running (FR). It seems the training model of backward running can generate more stimulus to achieve better plantar flexion force and strengthening ankle protectors which leads to balance improvement in pre aging period. It can be recommended as an effective method to promote seniors life quality especially in balance neuromuscular parameters. Downloads 89
##### 498 FEM Investigation of Inhomogeneous Wall Thickness Backward Extrusion for Aerosol Can Manufacturing

Authors: Jemal Ebrahim Dessie, Zsolt Lukacs

Abstract:

The wall of the aerosol can is extruded from the backward extrusion process. Necking is another forming process stage developed on the can shoulder after the backward extrusion process. Due to the thinner thickness of the wall, buckling is the critical challenge for current pure aluminum aerosol can industries. Design and investigation of extrusion with inhomogeneous wall thickness could be the best solution for reducing and optimization of neck retraction numbers. FEM simulation of inhomogeneous wall thickness has been simulated through this investigation. From axisymmetric Deform-2D backward extrusion, an aerosol can with a thickness of 0.4 mm at the top and 0.33 mm at the bottom of the aerosol can have been developed. As the result, it can optimize the number of retractions of the necking process and manufacture defect-free aerosol can shoulder due to the necking process.

Keywords: aerosol can, backward extrusion, Deform-2D, necking

##### 497 Sparse Principal Component Analysis: A Least Squares Approximation Approach

Authors: Giovanni Merola

Abstract:

##### 496 Numerical Study of Heat Transfer and Laminar Flow over a Backward Facing Step with and without Obstacle

Abstract:

Heat transfer and laminar fluid flow over backward facing step with and without obstacle numerically studied in this paper. The finite volume method adopted to solve continuity, momentum and energy equations in two dimensions. Backward facing step without obstacle and with different dimension of obstacle were presented. The step height and expansion ratio of channel were 4.8mm and 2 respectively, the range of Reynolds number varied from 75 to 225, constant heat flux subjected on downstream of wall was 2000W/m2, and length of obstacle was 1.5, 3, and 4.5mm with width 1.5mm. The separation length noticed increase with increase Reynolds number and height of obstacle. The result shows increase of heat transfer coefficient for backward facing step with obstacle in compared to those without obstacle. The maximum enhancement of heat transfer observed at 4.5mm of height obstacle due to increase recirculation flow after the obstacle in addition that at backward. Streamline of velocity showing the increase of recirculation region with used obstacle in compared without obstacle and highest recirculation region observed at obstacle height 4.5mm. The amount of enhancement heat transfer was varied between 3-5% compared to backward without obstacle. Downloads 385
##### 495 Analysis of Backward Supply Chain in Beverages Industry of Pakistan

Authors: Faisal Mehmood

Abstract:

In this globalization era, the supply chain management has acquired strategic importance in diverse business environments. In the current highly competitive business environment, the success of any business considerably depends on the efficiency of the supply chain. Management has now realized that due to the inefficiency of any member of supply chain, the profitability of the business will be affected. This paper proposes an analysis of backward supply chain in the beverages industry of Pakistan. Although reuse of products and materials is a common phenomenon, companies have long ignored this important part of the supply chain, known as backward supply chain or reverse logistics. The beverage industry is among the pioneers of backward supply chain or reverse logistics in Pakistan. The empty glass bottles are returned back from the point of consumption to the warehouse for refilling and reusability purposes. Due to the lack of information on reverse flow of logistics and more attention on the forward distribution, beverages industry in Pakistan is facing high rate of inefficiencies and ineffectiveness. Analysis of backward or reverse logistics practiced in beverages industry is the subject of this study in which framework dictating the current needs of market will be developed. Downloads 272
##### 494 An Efficient Backward Semi-Lagrangian Scheme for Nonlinear Advection-Diffusion Equation

Authors: Soyoon Bak, Sunyoung Bu, Philsu Kim

Abstract:

In this paper, a backward semi-Lagrangian scheme combined with the second-order backward difference formula is designed to calculate the numerical solutions of nonlinear advection-diffusion equations. The primary aims of this paper are to remove any iteration process and to get an efficient algorithm with the convergence order of accuracy 2 in time. In order to achieve these objects, we use the second-order central finite difference and the B-spline approximations of degree 2 and 3 in order to approximate the diffusion term and the spatial discretization, respectively. For the temporal discretization, the second order backward difference formula is applied. To calculate the numerical solution of the starting point of the characteristic curves, we use the error correction methodology developed by the authors recently. The proposed algorithm turns out to be completely iteration-free, which resolves the main weakness of the conventional backward semi-Lagrangian method. Also, the adaptability of the proposed method is indicated by numerical simulations for Burgers’ equations. Throughout these numerical simulations, it is shown that the numerical results are in good agreement with the analytic solution and the present scheme offer better accuracy in comparison with other existing numerical schemes. Semi-Lagrangian method, iteration-free method, nonlinear advection-diffusion equation, second-order backward difference formula Downloads 235
##### 493 Effect of Tube Backward Extrusion (TBE) Process on the Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of AZ31 Magnesium Alloy

Authors: H. Abdolvand, M. Riazat, H. Sohrabi, G. Faraji

Abstract:

An experimental investigation into the Tube Backward Extrusion (TBE) process on AZ31 magnesium alloy is studied. Microstructures and grain size distribution of the specimens before and after TBE process are investigated by optical microscopy. Tensile and Vickers microhardness tests along extrusion direction were performed at room temperature. It is found that the average grain size is refined remarkably from the initial 33 µm down to 3.5 µm after TBE process. Also, the microhardness increased significantly to 58 HV after the process from an initial value of 36 HV. Downloads 337
##### 492 Compromising Relevance for Elegance: A Danger of Dominant Growth Models for Backward Economies

Abstract:

Backward economies are facing a challenge of achieving sustainable high economic growth rate. Dominant growth models represent a roadmap in framing economic development strategy. This paper examines a relevance of the dominant growth models for backward economies. Cobb-Douglas production function, the Harrod-Domar model of economic growth, the Solow growth model and general formula of gross domestic product are examined to undertake a comprehensive study of the dominant growth models. Deductive research method allows to uncover major weaknesses of the dominant growth models and to come up with practical implications for economic development strategy. The key finding of the paper shows, contrary to what used to be taught by textbooks of economics, that constant returns to scale property of the dominant growth models are a mere coincidence and its generalization over space and time can be regarded as one of the most unfortunate mistakes in the whole field of political economy. The major suggestion of the paper for backward economies is that understanding and considering taxonomy of economic activities based on increasing and diminishing returns to scale represent a cornerstone of successful economic development strategy. Downloads 295
##### 491 A Note on Decidability Structure of Rational Numbers in Different Languages

Authors: Zahra Sheikhaleslami

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to study the theories of rational numbers in different languages, and we will review the rational number and their properties. A theory T is decidable if there exists an effective procedure to determine whether T ⊢ ϕ where ϕ is any sentence of the language. Quantifier elimination is a very powerful property, as it helps in the proof of decidability. To prove the decidability of the theory of rational numbers in different languages, we will show that these theories supports quantifier elimination. Downloads 118
##### 490 On the Derivation of Variable Step BBDF for Solving Second Order Stiff ODEs

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The method of solving second order stiff ordinary differential equation (ODEs) that is based on backward differentiation formula (BDF) is considered in this paper. We derived the method by increasing the order of the existing method using an improved strategy in choosing the step size. Numerical results are presented to compare the efficiency of the proposed method to the MATLAB’s suite of ODEs solvers namely ode15s and ode23s. The method was found to be efficient to solve second order ordinary differential equation. Downloads 410
##### 489 Effect of the Initial Billet Shape Parameters on the Final Product in a Backward Extrusion Process for Pressure Vessels

Abstract:

In this numerical study, we have proposed a method for evaluation of backward extrusion process of pressure vessel made up of steel. Demand for lighter and stiffer products have been increasing in the last years especially in automobile engineering. Through detailed finite element analysis, effective stress, strain and velocity profile have been obtained with optimal range. The process design of a forward and backward extrusion axe-symmetric part has been studied. Forging is mainly carried out because forged products are highly reliable and possess superior mechanical properties when compared to normal products. Performing computational simulations of 3D hot forging with various dimensions of billet and optimization of weight is carried out using Taguchi Orthogonal Array (OA) Optimization technique. The technique used in this study can be used for newly developed materials to investigate its forgeability for much complicated shapes in closed hot die forging process. Downloads 237
##### 488 Symbolic Computation via Grobner Basis

Authors: Haohao Wang

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to find elimination ideals via Grobner basis. We first introduce the concept of Grobner bases, and then, we provide computational algorithms to applications for curves and surfaces.

Keywords: curves, surfaces, Grobner basis, elimination

##### 487 Modification of Newton Method in Two Point Block Backward Differentiation Formulas

Abstract:

In this paper, we present modified Newton method as a new strategy for improving the efficiency of Two Point Block Backward Differentiation Formulas (BBDF) when solving stiff systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These methods are constructed to produce two approximate solutions simultaneously at each iteration The detailed implementation of the predictor corrector BBDF with PE(CE)2 with modified Newton are discussed. The proposed modification of BBDF is validated through numerical results on some standard problems found in the literature and comparisons are made with the existing Block Backward Differentiation Formula. Numerical results show the advantage of using the new strategy for solving stiff ODEs in improving the accuracy of the solution.

Keywords: newton method, two point, block, accuracy

##### 486 Kalman Filter Gain Elimination in Linear Estimation

Authors: Nicholas D. Assimakis

Abstract:

In linear estimation, the traditional Kalman filter uses the Kalman filter gain in order to produce estimation and prediction of the n-dimensional state vector using the m-dimensional measurement vector. The computation of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an m x m matrix in every iteration. In this paper, a variation of the Kalman filter eliminating the Kalman filter gain is proposed. In the time varying case, the elimination of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an n x n matrix and the inversion of an m x m matrix in every iteration. In the time invariant case, the elimination of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an n x n matrix in every iteration. The proposed Kalman filter gain elimination algorithm may be faster than the conventional Kalman filter, depending on the model dimensions. Downloads 73
##### 485 Cost Analysis of Neglected Tropical Disease in Nigeria: Implication for Programme Control and Elimination

Authors: Lawong Damian Bernsah

Abstract:

Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) are most predominant among the poor and rural populations and are endemic in 149 countries. These diseases are the most prevalent and responsible for infecting 1.4 billion people worldwide. There are 17 neglected tropical diseases recognized by WHO that constitute the fourth largest disease health and economic burden of all communicable diseases. Five of these 17 diseases are considered for the cost analysis of this paper: lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, schistosomiasis, and soil transmitted helminth infections. WHO has proposed a roadmap for eradication and elimination by 2020 and treatments have been donated through the London Declaration by pharmaceutical manufacturers. The paper estimates the cost of NTD control programme and elimination for each NTD disease and total in Nigeria. This is necessary as it forms the bases upon which programme budget and expenditure could be based. Again, given the opportunity cost the resources for NTD face it is necessary to estimate the cost so as to provide bases for comparison. Cost of NTDs control and elimination programme is estimated using the population at risk for each NTD diseases and for the total. The population at risk is gotten from the national master plan for the 2015 - 2020, while the cost per person was gotten for similar studies conducted in similar settings and ranges from US\$0.1 to US\$0.5 for Mass Administration of Medicine (MAM) and between US\$1 to US\$1.5 for each NTD disease. The combined cost for all the NTDs was estimated to be US\$634.88 million for the period 2015-2020 and US\$1.9 billion for each NTD disease for the same period. For the purpose of sensitivity analysis and for robustness of the analysis the cost per person was varied and all were still high. Given that health expenditure for Nigeria (% of GDP) averages 3.5% for the period 1995-2014, it is very clear that efforts have to be made to improve allocation to the health sector in general which is hoped could trickle to NTDs control and elimination. Thus, the government and the donor partners would need to step-up budgetary allocation and also to be aware of the costs of NTD control and elimination programme since they have alternative uses. Key Words: Neglected Tropical Disease, Cost Analysis, NTD Programme Control and Elimination, Cost per Person Downloads 203
##### 484 An Integrated Intuitionistic Fuzzy Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La REalite (IFELECTRE) Model

Authors: Babak Daneshvar Rouyendegh

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to develop and describe a new methodology for the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La REalite (IFELECTRE) model. The proposed models enable Decision-Makers (DMs) on the assessment and use Intuitionistic Fuzzy numbers (IFN). A numerical example is provided to demonstrate and clarify the proposed analysis procedure. Also, an empirical experiment is conducted to validation the effectiveness. Downloads 597
##### 483 Development of Variable Order Block Multistep Method for Solving Ordinary Differential Equations

Abstract:

In this paper, a class of variable order fully implicit multistep Block Backward Differentiation Formulas (VOBBDF) using uniform step size for the numerical solution of stiff ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is developed. The code will combine three multistep block methods of order four, five and six. The order selection is based on approximation of the local errors with specific tolerance. These methods are constructed to produce two approximate solutions simultaneously at each iteration in order to further increase the efficiency. The proposed VOBBDF is validated through numerical results on some standard problems found in the literature and comparisons are made with single order Block Backward Differentiation Formula (BBDF). Numerical results shows the advantage of using VOBBDF for solving ODEs. Downloads 360
##### 482 New Concept for Real Time Selective Harmonics Elimination Based on Lagrange Interpolation Polynomials

Authors: B. Makhlouf, O. Bouchhida, M. Nibouche, K. Laidi

Abstract:

A variety of methods for selective harmonics elimination pulse width modulation have been developed, the most frequently used for real-time implementation based on look-up tables method. To address real-time requirements based in modified carrier signal is proposed in the presented work, with a general formulation to real-time harmonics control/elimination in switched inverters. Firstly, the proposed method has been demonstrated for a single value of the modulation index. However, in reality, this parameter is variable as a consequence of the voltage (amplitude) variability. In this context, a simple interpolation method for calculating the modified sine carrier signal is proposed. The method allows a continuous adjustment in both amplitude and frequency of the fundamental. To assess the performance of the proposed method, software simulations and hardware experiments have been carried out in the case of a single-phase inverter. Obtained results are very satisfactory. Downloads 429
##### 481 Establishment of Nursing School in the Backward Region of Nepal

Authors: Shyam lamsal

Abstract:

Introduction: Karnali Academy of Health Sciences (KAHS) has been established in 2011, by an Act of parliament of Nepal, in Jumla, to provide health services in easy way in backward areas, to produce skilled health professionals & conduct research. The backward areas mentioned in act of KAHS are Humla, Jumla, Kalikot, Dolpa, Mugu districts of Karnali zone, Jajarkot district of Bheri zone & Bajura, Baghang & Achham districts of Seti zone in Nepal occupying around 25 % of the total national geography. Backward area of Nepal is specific to having worst health indicators with life expectancy (47 years), HDI (0.35), Literacy rate (58%), global acute malnutrition (13%), crude birth rate (33.6), crude death rate (9.6), Total fertility rate (4.2), infant mortality rate (61.5 per 1000 live births), under five mortality rate (59 per 1000 live births) and maternal mortality ratio (400 per 1000 live births). History of health facilities in backward region: All the nine districts of this region have a district hospital with very few grass root level health manpower. Government of Nepal regularly deploys one or two medical officers to each district who generally are not regular to their care. Jumla district itself was having one medical officer before the establishment of KAHS. Development activities: Establishment of 100 bedded specialty teaching hospital with 10 medical officers and five specialists, accredited its own nursing school for running diploma nursing programme, started “Karnali health survey” which covers 55 thousand households of backward region, started community care and school health camps, planning phase completed for 300 bedded teaching hospital construction. Future Plan: Expansion of the teaching hospital to 300 beds within 3 years, start health assistant and bachelor midwifery course in 2015 AD, start bachelor in laboratory and bachelor in public health course in 2016 AD and start MBBS course in 2018 AD. Deploy the medical officers and family physicians to all the district hospitals within 3 years. KAHS provides reservation up to 45% students from backward region with the commitment to stay for at least five years of their service period. Conclusion: This institution may be the example for the rest of the world in providing nursing care, education in remote areas as well as the best model for nursing manpower retention in remote areas of developing countries.

Keywords: backward area, nursing school

##### 480 The Role of Accounting in the Run-Added Tax in Iran

Authors: Zahra Karimi

Abstract:

Money is not the only medium of economic exchanges, but also affects the national identity of citizens and national sovereignty of the government. Hence, money can be used as a tool to strengthen the national and political identity of nations. In other words, the value of the national currency can be affecting citizen’s view to the economic situation of their country and national identity. Government with the maintenance of the value of the national currency must increase the confidence of its citizens into national currency and prevents that "currency substitution phenomenon" occurred and people turn to foreign currencies. Hence, this article intends to explain the zeros elimination from the national currency and study of experience of other countries and discussion history analyzed benefits and harms of zeroes elimination from the national currency, And then to evaluate the effect or lack of effect of removing of zeros from the national currency on inflation answer the question whether it is appropriate and on time to delete three zeros from the Riyal of Iran is or not? Downloads 426
##### 479 Survey of the Elimination of Red Acid Dye by Wood Dust

Abstract:

This work focused on the elimination of acid textile dye (red bermacide acid dye BN-CL-200), widely used for dyeing wool and polyamide fibers, by adsorption on a natural material, wood sawdust, in the static mode by keeping under continuous stirring, a specific mass of the adsorbent, with a dye solution of known concentration. The influence of various parameters is studied like the influence of particle size, mass, pH and time. The best results were obtained with 0.4 mm grain size, mass of 3g, Temperature of 20 °C, pH 2 and Time contact of 120 min.

Keywords: acid dye, environment, wood sawdust, wastewater

##### 478 The Development of GPS Buoy for Ocean Surface Monitoring: Initial Results

Authors: Anuar Mohd Salleh, Mohd Effendi Daud

Abstract:

This study presents a kinematic positioning approach which is use the GPS buoy for precise ocean surface monitoring. A GPS buoy data from two experiments have been processed using a precise, medium-range differential kinematic technique. In each case the data were collected for more than 24 hours at nearby coastal site at a high rate (1 Hz), along with measurements from neighboring tidal stations, to verify the estimated sea surface heights. Kinematic coordinates of GPS buoy were estimated using the epoch-wise pre-elimination and the backward substitution algorithm. Test results show the centimeter level accuracy in sea surface height determination can be successfully achieved using proposed technique. The centimeter level agreement between two methods also suggests the possibility of using this inexpensive and more flexible GPS buoy equipment to enhance (or even replace) the current use of tidal gauge stations. Downloads 432
##### 477 Macro Corruption: A Conceptual Analysis of Its Dimensions and Forward and Backward Linkages

Authors: Ahmed Sakr Ashour, Hoda Saad AboRemila

Abstract:

An attempt was made to fill the gap in the macro analysis of corruption by suggesting a conceptual framework that differentiates four types of macro corruption: state capture, political, bureaucratic and financial/corporate. The economic consequences or forward linkages (growth, inclusiveness and sustainability of development) and macro institutional determinants constituting the backward linkages of each type were delineated. The research implications of the macro perspective and proposed framework were discussed. Implications of the findings for theory, research and reform policies addressing macro corruption issues were discussed. Downloads 87
##### 476 Analysis of Combined Heat Transfer through the Core Materials of VIPs with Various Scattering Properties

Authors: Jaehyug Lee, Tae-Ho Song

Abstract:

Vacuum insulation panel (VIP) can achieve very low thermal conductivity by evacuating its inner space. Heat transfer in the core materials of highly-evacuated VIP occurs by conduction through the solid structure and radiation through the pore. The effect of various scattering modes in combined conduction-radiation in VIP is investigated through numerical analysis. The discrete ordinates interpolation method (DOIM) incorporated with the commercial code FLUENT® is employed. It is found that backward scattering is more effective in reducing the total heat transfer while isotropic scattering is almost identical with pure absorbing/emitting case of the same optical thickness. For a purely scattering medium, the results agree well with additive solution with diffusion approximation, while a modified term is added in the effect of optical thickness to backward scattering is employed. For other scattering phase functions, it is also confirmed that backwardly scattering phase function gives a lower effective thermal conductivity. Thus, the materials with backward scattering properties, with radiation shields are desirable to lower the thermal conductivity of VIPs. Downloads 301
##### 475 Execution of Optimization Algorithm in Cascaded H-Bridge Multilevel Inverter

Authors: M. Suresh Kumar, K. Ramani

Abstract:

This paper proposed the harmonic elimination of Cascaded H-Bridge Multi-Level Inverter by using Selective Harmonic Elimination-Pulse Width Modulation method programmed with Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm. PSO method determine proficiently the required switching angles to eliminate low order harmonics up to the 11th order from the inverter output voltage waveform while keeping the magnitude of the fundamental harmonics at the desired value. Results demonstrate that the proposed method does efficiently eliminate a great number of specific harmonics and the output voltage is resulted in minimum Total Harmonic Distortion. The results shown that the PSO algorithm attain successfully to the global solution faster than other algorithms. Downloads 516
##### 474 Economic Loss due to Ganoderma Disease in Oil Palm

Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho

Abstract:

Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate. Downloads 300
##### 473 Detection of Change Points in Earthquakes Data: A Bayesian Approach

Authors: F. A. Al-Awadhi, D. Al-Hulail

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In this study, we applied the Bayesian hierarchical model to detect single and multiple change points for daily earthquake body wave magnitude. The change point analysis is used in both backward (off-line) and forward (on-line) statistical research. In this study, it is used with the backward approach. Different types of change parameters are considered (mean, variance or both). The posterior model and the conditional distributions for single and multiple change points are derived and implemented using BUGS software. The model is applicable for any set of data. The sensitivity of the model is tested using different prior and likelihood functions. Using Mb data, we concluded that during January 2002 and December 2003, three changes occurred in the mean magnitude of Mb in Kuwait and its vicinity. Downloads 386