Search results for: Equivalent circuit modelling
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 3331

Search results for: Equivalent circuit modelling

811 Determination of Safe Ore Extraction Methodology beneath Permanent Extraction in a Lead Zinc Mine with the Help of FLAC3D Numerical Model

Authors: Ayan Giri, Lukaranjan Phukan, Shantanu Karmakar

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Structure and tectonics play a vital role in ore genesis and deposition. The existence of a swelling structure below the current level of a mine leads to the discovery of ores below some permeant developments of the mine. The discovery and the extraction of the ore body are very critical to sustain the business requirement of the mine. The challenge was to extract the ore without hampering the global stability of the mine. In order to do so, different mining options were considered and analysed by numerical modelling in FLAC3d software. The constitutive model prepared for this simulation is the improved unified constitutive model, which can better and more accurately predict the stress-strain relationships in a continuum model. The IUCM employs the Hoek-Brown criterion to determine the instantaneous Mohr-Coulomb parameters cohesion (c) and friction (ɸ) at each level of confining stress. The extra swelled part can be dimensioned as north-south strike width 50m, east-west strike width 50m. On the north side, already a stope (P1) is excavated of the dimension of 25m NS width. The different options considered were (a) Open stoping of extraction of southern part (P0) of 50m to the full extent, (b) Extraction of the southern part of 25m, then filling of both the primaries and extraction of secondary (S0) 25m in between. (c) Extraction of the southern part (P0) completely, preceded by backfill and modify the design of the secondary (S0) for the overall stability of the permanent excavation above the stoping.

Keywords: extraction, IUCM, FLAC 3D, stoping, tectonics

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810 Optimization of Tundish Geometry for Minimizing Dead Volume Using OpenFOAM

Authors: Prateek Singh, Dilshad Ahmad

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Growing demand for high-quality steel products has inspired researchers to investigate the unit operations involved in the manufacturing of these products (slabs, rods, sheets, etc.). One such operation is tundish operation, in which a vessel (tundish) acts as a buffer of molten steel for the solidification operation in mold. It is observed that tundish also plays a crucial role in the quality and cleanliness of the steel produced, besides merely acting as a reservoir for the mold. It facilitates removal of dissolved oxygen (inclusions) from the molten steel thus improving its cleanliness. Inclusion removal can be enhanced by increasing the residence time of molten steel in the tundish by incorporation of flow modifiers like dams, weirs, turbo-pad, etc. These flow modifiers also help in reducing the dead or short circuit zones within the tundish which is significant for maintaining thermal and chemical homogeneity of molten steel. Thus, it becomes important to analyze the flow of molten steel in the tundish for different configuration of flow modifiers. In the present work, effect of varying positions and heights/depths of dam and weir on the dead volume in tundish is studied. Steady state thermal and flow profiles of molten steel within the tundish are obtained using OpenFOAM. Subsequently, Residence Time Distribution analysis is performed to obtain the percentage of dead volume in the tundish. Design of Experiment method is then used to configure different tundish geometries for varying positions and heights/depths of dam and weir, and dead volume for each tundish design is obtained. A second-degree polynomial with two-term interactions of independent variables to predict the dead volume in the tundish with positions and heights/depths of dam and weir as variables are computed using Multiple Linear Regression model. This polynomial is then used in an optimization framework to obtain the optimal tundish geometry for minimizing dead volume using Sequential Quadratic Programming optimization.

Keywords: design of experiments, multiple linear regression, OpenFOAM, residence time distribution, sequential quadratic programming optimization, steel, tundish

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809 Mixed Mode Fracture Analyses Using Finite Element Method of Edge Cracked Heavy Spinning Annulus Pulley

Authors: Bijit Kalita, K. V. N. Surendra

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Rotating disk is one of the most indispensable parts of a rotating machine. Rotating disk has found many applications in the diverging field of science and technology. In this paper, we have taken into consideration the problem of a heavy spinning disk mounted on a rotor system acted upon by boundary traction. Finite element modelling is used at various loading condition to determine the mixed mode stress intensity factors. The effect of combined shear and normal traction on the boundary is incorporated in the analysis under the action of gravity. The variation near the crack tip is characterized in terms of the stress intensity factor (SIF) with an aim to find the SIF for a wide range of parameters. The results of the finite element analyses carried out on the compressed disk of a belt pulley arrangement using fracture mechanics concepts are shown. A total of hundred cases of the problem are solved for each of the variations in loading arc parameter and crack orientation using finite element models of the disc under compression. All models were prepared and analyzed for the uncracked disk, disk with a single crack at different orientation emanating from shaft hole as well as for a disc with pair of cracks emerging from the same center hole. Curves are plotted for various loading conditions. Finally, crack propagation paths are determined using kink angle concepts.

Keywords: crack-tip deformations, static loading, stress concentration, stress intensity factor

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808 H2/He and H2O/He Separation Experiments with Zeolite Membranes for Nuclear Fusion Applications

Authors: Rodrigo Antunes, Olga Borisevich, David Demange

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In future nuclear fusion reactors, tritium self-sufficiency will be ensured by tritium (3H) production via reactions between the fusion neutrons and lithium. To favor tritium breeding, a neutron multiplier must also be used. Both tritium breeder and neutron multiplier will be placed in the so-called Breeding Blanket (BB). For the European Helium-Cooled Pebble Bed (HCPB) BB concept, the tritium production and neutron multiplication will be ensured by neutron bombardment of Li4SiO4 and Be pebbles, respectively. The produced tritium is extracted from the pebbles by purging them with large flows of He (~ 104 Nm3h-1), doped with small amounts of H2 (~ 0.1 vol%) to promote tritium extraction via isotopic exchange (producing HT). Due to the presence of oxygen in the pebbles, production of tritiated water is unavoidable. Therefore, the purging gas downstream of the BB will be composed by Q2/Q2O/He (Q = 1H, 2H, 3H), with Q2/Q2O down to ppm levels, which must be further processed for tritium recovery. A two-stage continuous approach, where zeolite membranes (ZMs) are followed by a catalytic membrane reactor (CMR), has been recently proposed to fulfil this task. The tritium recovery from Q2/Q2O/He is ensured by the CMR, that requires a reduction of the gas flow coming from the BB and a pre-concentration of Q2 and Q2O to be efficient. For this reason, and to keep this stage with reasonable dimensions, ZMs are required upfront to reduce as much as possible the He flows and concentrate the Q2/Q2O species. Therefore, experimental activities have been carried out at the Tritium Laboratory Karlsruhe (TLK) to test the separation performances of different zeolite membranes for H2/H2O/He. First experiments have been performed with binary mixtures of H2/He and H2O/He with commercial MFI-ZSM5 and NaA zeolite-type membranes. Only the MFI-ZSM5 demonstrated selectivity towards H2, with a separation factor around 1.5, and H2 permeances around 0.72 µmolm-2s-1Pa-1, rather independent for feed concentrations in the range 0.1 vol%-10 vol% H2/He. The experiments with H2O/He have demonstrated that the separation factor towards H2O is highly dependent on the feed concentration and temperature. For instance, at 0.2 vol% H2O/He the separation factor with NaA is below 2 and around 1000 at 5 vol% H2O/He, at 30°C. Overall, both membranes demonstrated complementary results at equivalent temperatures. In fact, at low feed concentrations ( ≤ 1 vol% H2O/He) MFI-ZSM5 separates better than NaA, whereas the latter has higher separation factors for higher inlet water content ( ≥ 5 vol% H2O/He). In this contribution, the results obtained with both MFI-ZSM5 and NaA membranes for H2/He and H2O/H2 mixtures at different concentrations and temperatures are compared and discussed.

Keywords: nuclear fusion, gas separation, tritium processes, zeolite membranes

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807 Impact of the Non-Energy Sectors Diversification on the Energy Dependency Mitigation: Visualization by the “IntelSymb” Software Application

Authors: Ilaha Rzayeva, Emin Alasgarov, Orkhan Karim-Zada

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This study attempts to consider the linkage between management and computer sciences in order to develop the software named “IntelSymb” as a demo application to prove data analysis of non-energy* fields’ diversification, which will positively influence on energy dependency mitigation of countries. Afterward, we analyzed 18 years of economic fields of development (5 sectors) of 13 countries by identifying which patterns mostly prevailed and which can be dominant in the near future. To make our analysis solid and plausible, as a future work, we suggest developing a gateway or interface, which will be connected to all available on-line data bases (WB, UN, OECD, U.S. EIA) for countries’ analysis by fields. Sample data consists of energy (TPES and energy import indicators) and non-energy industries’ (Main Science and Technology Indicator, Internet user index, and Sales and Production indicators) statistics from 13 OECD countries over 18 years (1995-2012). Our results show that the diversification of non-energy industries can have a positive effect on energy sector dependency (energy consumption and import dependence on crude oil) deceleration. These results can provide empirical and practical support for energy and non-energy industries diversification’ policies, such as the promoting of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), services and innovative technologies efficiency and management, in other OECD and non-OECD member states with similar energy utilization patterns and policies. Industries, including the ICT sector, generate around 4 percent of total GHG, but this is much higher — around 14 percent — if indirect energy use is included. The ICT sector itself (excluding the broadcasting sector) contributes approximately 2 percent of global GHG emissions, at just under 1 gigatonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq). Ergo, this can be a good example and lesson for countries which are dependent and independent on energy, and mainly emerging oil-based economies, as well as to motivate non-energy industries diversification in order to be ready to energy crisis and to be able to face any economic crisis as well.

Keywords: energy policy, energy diversification, “IntelSymb” software, renewable energy

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806 Supplier Risk Management: A Multivariate Statistical Modelling and Portfolio Optimization Based Approach for Supplier Delivery Performance Development

Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

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In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

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805 Estimating of Groundwater Recharge Value for Al-Najaf City, Iraq

Authors: Hayder H. Kareem

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Groundwater recharge is a crucial parameter for any groundwater management system. The variability of the recharge rates and the difficulty in estimating this factor in many processes by direct observation leads to the complexity of estimating the recharge value. Various methods are existing to estimate the groundwater recharge, with some limitations for each method to be able for application. This paper focuses particularly on a real study area, Al-Najaf City, Iraq. In this city, there are few groundwater aquifers, but the aquifer which is considered in this study is the closest one to the ground surface, the Dibdibba aquifer. According to the Aridity Index, which is estimated in the paper, Al-Najaf City is classified as a region located in an arid climate, and this identified that the most appropriate method to estimate the groundwater recharge is Thornthwaite's formula or Thornthwaite's method. From the calculations, the estimated average groundwater recharge over the period 1980-2014 for Al-Najaf City is 40.32 mm/year. Groundwater recharge is completely affected the groundwater table level (groundwater head). Therefore, to make sure that this value of recharge is true, the MODFLOW program has been used to apply this value through finding the relationship between the calculated and observed heads where a groundwater model for the Al-Najaf City study area has been built by MODFLOW to simulate this area for different purposes, one of these purposes is to simulate the groundwater recharge. MODFLOW results show that this value of groundwater recharge is extremely high and needs to be reduced. Therefore, a further sensitivity test has been carried out for the Al-Najaf City study area by the MODFLOW program through changing the recharge value and found that the best estimation of groundwater recharge value for this city is 16.5 mm/year where this value gives the best fitting between the calculated and observed heads with minimum values of RMSE % (13.175) and RSS m² (1454).

Keywords: Al-Najaf City, groundwater modelling, recharge estimation, visual MODFLOW

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804 Open Fields' Dosimetric Verification for a Commercially-Used 3D Treatment Planning System

Authors: Nashaat A. Deiab, Aida Radwan, Mohamed Elnagdy, Mohamed S. Yahiya, Rasha Moustafa

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This study is to evaluate and investigate the dosimetric performance of our institution's 3D treatment planning system, Elekta PrecisePLAN, for open 6MV fields including square, rectangular, variation in SSD, centrally blocked, missing tissue, square MLC and MLC shaped fields guided by the recommended QA tests prescribed in AAPM TG53, NCS report 15 test packages, IAEA TRS 430 and ESTRO booklet no.7. The study was performed for Elekta Precise linear accelerator designed for clinical range of 4, 6 and 15 MV photon beams with asymmetric jaws and fully integrated multileaf collimator that enables high conformance to target with sharp field edges. Seven different tests were done applied on solid water equivalent phantom along with 2D array dose detection system, the calculated doses using 3D treatment planning system PrecisePLAN, compared with measured doses to make sure that the dose calculations are accurate for open fields including square, rectangular, variation in SSD, centrally blocked, missing tissue, square MLC and MLC shaped fields. The QA results showed dosimetric accuracy of the TPS for open fields within the specified tolerance limits. However large square (25cm x 25cm) and rectangular fields (20cm x 5cm) some points were out of tolerance in penumbra region (11.38 % and 10.9 %, respectively). For the test of SSD variation, the large field resulted from SSD 125 cm for 10cm x 10cm filed the results recorded an error of 0.2% at the central axis and 1.01% in penumbra. The results yielded differences within the accepted tolerance level as recommended. Large fields showed variations in penumbra. These differences between dose values predicted by the TPS and the measured values at the same point may result from limitations of the dose calculation, uncertainties in the measurement procedure, or fluctuations in the output of the accelerator.

Keywords: quality assurance, dose calculation, 3D treatment planning system, photon beam

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803 Modelling the Yield Stress of Magnetorheological Fluids

Authors: Hesam Khajehsaeid, Naeimeh Alagheband

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Magnetorheological fluids (MRF) are a category of smart materials. They exhibit a reversible change from a Newtonian-like fluid to a semi-solid state upon application of an external magnetic field. In contrast to ordinary fluids, MRFs can tolerate shear stresses up to a threshold value called yield stress which strongly depends on the strength of the magnetic field, magnetic particles volume fraction and temperature. Even beyond the yield, a magnetic field can increase MR fluid viscosity up to several orders. As yield stress is an important parameter in the design of MR devices, in this work, the effects of magnetic field intensity and magnetic particle concentration on the yield stress of MRFs are investigated. Four MRF samples with different particle concentrations are developed and tested through flow-ramp analysis to obtain the flow curves at a range of magnetic field intensity as well as shear rate. The viscosity of the fluids is determined by means of the flow curves. The results are then used to determine the yield stresses by means of the steady stress sweep method. The yield stresses are then determined by means of a modified form of the dipole model as well as empirical models. The exponential distribution function is used to describe the orientation of particle chains in the dipole model under the action of the external magnetic field. Moreover, the modified dipole model results in a reasonable distribution of chains compared to previous similar models.

Keywords: magnetorheological fluids, yield stress, particles concentration, dipole model

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802 Drivers of Liking: Probiotic Petit Suisse Cheese

Authors: Helena Bolini, Erick Esmerino, Adriano Cruz, Juliana Paixao

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The currently concern for health has increased demand for low-calorie ingredients and functional foods as probiotics. Understand the reasons that infer on food choice, besides a challenging task, it is important step for development and/or reformulation of existing food products. The use of appropriate multivariate statistical techniques, such as External Preference Map (PrefMap), associated with regression by Partial Least Squares (PLS) can help in determining those factors. Thus, this study aimed to determine, through PLS regression analysis, the sensory attributes considered drivers of liking in probiotic petit suisse cheeses, strawberry flavor, sweetened with different sweeteners. Five samples in same equivalent sweetness: PROB1 (Sucralose 0.0243%), PROB2 (Stevia 0.1520%), PROB3 (Aspartame 0.0877%), PROB4 (Neotame 0.0025%) and PROB5 (Sucrose 15.2%) determined by just-about-right and magnitude estimation methods, and three commercial samples COM1, COM2 and COM3, were studied. Analysis was done over data coming from QDA, performed by 12 expert (highly trained assessors) on 20 descriptor terms, correlated with data from assessment of overall liking in acceptance test, carried out by 125 consumers, on all samples. Sequentially, results were submitted to PLS regression using XLSTAT software from Byossistemes. As shown in results, it was possible determine, that three sensory descriptor terms might be considered drivers of liking of probiotic petit suisse cheese samples added with sweeteners (p<0.05). The milk flavor was noticed as a sensory characteristic with positive impact on acceptance, while descriptors bitter taste and sweet aftertaste were perceived as descriptor terms with negative impact on acceptance of petit suisse probiotic cheeses. It was possible conclude that PLS regression analysis is a practical and useful tool in determining drivers of liking of probiotic petit suisse cheeses sweetened with artificial and natural sweeteners, allowing food industry to understand and improve their formulations maximizing the acceptability of their products.

Keywords: acceptance, consumer, quantitative descriptive analysis, sweetener

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801 Coronavirus Anxiety and Job Burnout of Polish Front-Line Health-Care Workers. Mediation Effect of Insomnia

Authors: Lukasz Baka

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Objective. The study aimed to investigate the direct and indirect - mediated through insomnia - effect of coronavirus anxiety on exhaustion from the perspective of Hobfol Conservation of Resources (COR) theory. According to COR theory, critical events (e.g. the coronavirus epidemic) make people fearful of losing their valuable resources. A prolonged state of anxiety may lead to sleep troubles, which over time, results in an increase in exhaustion. Materials and Methods: Data were collected among 440 Polish healthcare providers, including nurses and midwives, doctors, paramedics, medical assistance, and wardens. Three measurements were used: Coronavirus Anxiety Scale (CAS), Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ, sleep trouble subscale) and Oldenburg Burnout Inventory (OLBI, exhaustion subscale). Hypotheses were tested by the use of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Results: The obtained results fully support the hypotheses. Both the direct and indirect relationships between coronavirus anxiety and exhaustion were observed. Specifically, high coronavirus anxiety increased insomnia, which in turn contributed to the development of exhaustion. Conclusion: The results are consistent with the COR theory. Prolonged coronavirus anxiety and sleep problems depleted healthcare providers’ resources and made them feel exhausted. Exhaustion among these workers can have serious consequences not only for themselves but also for the health of their patients, therefore researches into effective ways to deal with coronavirus anxiety are needed.

Keywords: coronavirus anxiety, front-line healt-care workers, insomnia, job burnout

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800 The Integration of Digital Humanities into the Sociology of Knowledge Approach to Discourse Analysis

Authors: Gertraud Koch, Teresa Stumpf, Alejandra Tijerina García

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Discourse analysis research approaches belong to the central research strategies applied throughout the humanities; they focus on the countless forms and ways digital texts and images shape present-day notions of the world. Despite the constantly growing number of relevant digital, multimodal discourse resources, digital humanities (DH) methods are thus far not systematically developed and accessible for discourse analysis approaches. Specifically, the significance of multimodality and meaning plurality modelling are yet to be sufficiently addressed. In order to address this research gap, the D-WISE project aims to develop a prototypical working environment as digital support for the sociology of knowledge approach to discourse analysis and new IT-analysis approaches for the use of context-oriented embedding representations. Playing an essential role throughout our research endeavor is the constant optimization of hermeneutical methodology in the use of (semi)automated processes and their corresponding epistemological reflection. Among the discourse analyses, the sociology of knowledge approach to discourse analysis is characterised by the reconstructive and accompanying research into the formation of knowledge systems in social negotiation processes. The approach analyses how dominant understandings of a phenomenon develop, i.e., the way they are expressed and consolidated by various actors in specific arenas of discourse until a specific understanding of the phenomenon and its socially accepted structure are established. This article presents insights and initial findings from D-WISE, a joint research project running since 2021 between the Institute of Anthropological Studies in Culture and History and the Language Technology Group of the Department of Informatics at the University of Hamburg. As an interdisciplinary team, we develop central innovations with regard to the availability of relevant DH applications by building up a uniform working environment, which supports the procedure of the sociology of knowledge approach to discourse analysis within open corpora and heterogeneous, multimodal data sources for researchers in the humanities. We are hereby expanding the existing range of DH methods by developing contextualized embeddings for improved modelling of the plurality of meaning and the integrated processing of multimodal data. The alignment of this methodological and technical innovation is based on the epistemological working methods according to grounded theory as a hermeneutic methodology. In order to systematically relate, compare, and reflect the approaches of structural-IT and hermeneutic-interpretative analysis, the discourse analysis is carried out both manually and digitally. Using the example of current discourses on digitization in the healthcare sector and the associated issues regarding data protection, we have manually built an initial data corpus of which the relevant actors and discourse positions are analysed in conventional qualitative discourse analysis. At the same time, we are building an extensive digital corpus on the same topic based on the use and further development of entity-centered research tools such as topic crawlers and automated newsreaders. In addition to the text material, this consists of multimodal sources such as images, video sequences, and apps. In a blended reading process, the data material is filtered, annotated, and finally coded with the help of NLP tools such as dependency parsing, named entity recognition, co-reference resolution, entity linking, sentiment analysis, and other project-specific tools that are being adapted and developed. The coding process is carried out (semi-)automated by programs that propose coding paradigms based on the calculated entities and their relationships. Simultaneously, these can be specifically trained by manual coding in a closed reading process and specified according to the content issues. Overall, this approach enables purely qualitative, fully automated, and semi-automated analyses to be compared and reflected upon.

Keywords: entanglement of structural IT and hermeneutic-interpretative analysis, multimodality, plurality of meaning, sociology of knowledge approach to discourse analysis

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799 Energy Recovery Potential from Food Waste and Yard Waste in New York and Montréal

Authors: T. Malmir, U. Eicker

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Landfilling of organic waste is still the predominant waste management method in the USA and Canada. Strategic plans for waste diversion from landfills are needed to increase material recovery and energy generation from waste. In this paper, we carried out a statistical survey on waste flow in the two cities New York and Montréal and estimated the energy recovery potential for each case. Data collection and analysis of the organic waste (food waste, yard waste, etc.), paper and cardboard, metal, glass, plastic, carton, textile, electronic products and other materials were done based on the reports published by the Department of Sanitation in New York and Service de l'Environnement in Montréal. In order to calculate the gas generation potential of organic waste, Buswell equation was used in which the molar mass of the elements was calculated based on their atomic weight and the amount of organic waste in New York and Montréal. Also, the higher and lower calorific value of the organic waste (solid base) and biogas (gas base) were calculated. According to the results, only 19% (598 kt) and 45% (415 kt) of New York and Montréal waste were diverted from landfills in 2017, respectively. The biogas generation potential of the generated food waste and yard waste amounted to 631 million m3 in New York and 173 million m3 in Montréal. The higher and lower calorific value of food waste were 3482 and 2792 GWh in New York and 441 and 354 GWh in Montréal, respectively. In case of yard waste, they were 816 and 681 GWh in New York and 636 and 531 GWh in Montréal, respectively. Considering the higher calorific value, this amount would mean a contribution of around 2.5% energy in these cities.

Keywords: energy recovery, organic waste, urban energy modelling with INSEL, waste flow

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798 A Discrete Element Method Centrifuge Model of Monopile under Cyclic Lateral Loads

Authors: Nuo Duan, Yi Pik Cheng

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This paper presents the data of a series of two-dimensional Discrete Element Method (DEM) simulations of a large-diameter rigid monopile subjected to cyclic loading under a high gravitational force. At present, monopile foundations are widely used to support the tall and heavy wind turbines, which are also subjected to significant from wind and wave actions. A safe design must address issues such as rotations and changes in soil stiffness subject to these loadings conditions. Design guidance on the issue is limited, so are the availability of laboratory and field test data. The interpretation of these results in sand, such as the relation between loading and displacement, relies mainly on empirical correlations to pile properties. Regarding numerical models, most data from Finite Element Method (FEM) can be found. They are not comprehensive, and most of the FEM results are sensitive to input parameters. The micro scale behaviour could change the mechanism of the soil-structure interaction. A DEM model was used in this paper to study the cyclic lateral loads behaviour. A non-dimensional framework is presented and applied to interpret the simulation results. The DEM data compares well with various set of published experimental centrifuge model test data in terms of lateral deflection. The accumulated permanent pile lateral displacements induced by the cyclic lateral loads were found to be dependent on the characteristics of the applied cyclic load, such as the extent of the loading magnitudes and directions.

Keywords: cyclic loading, DEM, numerical modelling, sands

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797 Modelling the Impacts of Geophysical Parameters on Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Pre and Post Ban Logging Periods in Hindu Kush Himalayas

Authors: Alam Zeb, Glen W. Armstrong, Muhammad Qasim

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Loss of forest cover is one of the most important land cover changes and has been of great concern to policy makers. This study quantified forest cover changes over pre logging ban (1973-1993) and post logging ban (1993-2015) to examine the role of geophysical factors and spatial attributes of land in the two periods. We show that despite a complete ban on green felling, forest cover decreased by 28% and mostly converted to rangeland. Nevertheless, the logging ban was completely effective in controlling agriculture expansion. The binary logistic regression revealed that the south facing aspects at low elevation witnessed more deforestation in the pre-ban period compared to post-ban. Opposite to deforestation, forest degradation was more prominent on the northern aspects at higher elevation during the policy period. Agriculture expansion was widespread in the low elevation flat areas with gentle slope, while during the policy period agriculture contraction in the form of regeneration was observed on the low elevation areas of north facing slopes. All proximity variables, except distance to administrative boundary, showed a similar trend across the two periods and were important explanatory variables in understanding forest and agriculture expansion. The changes in determinants of forest and agriculture expansion and contraction over the two periods might be attributed to the influence of policy and a general decrease in resource availability.

Keywords: forest conservation , wood harvesting ban, logistic regression, deforestation, forest degradation, agriculture expansion, Chitral, Pakistan

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796 Comparison of High Speed Railway Bride Foundation Design

Authors: Hussein Yousif Aziz

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This paper discussed the design and analysis of bridge foundation subjected to load of train with three codes, namely AASHTO code, British Standard BS Code 8004 (1986), and Chinese code (TB10002.5-2005).The study focused on the design and analysis of bridge’s foundation manually with the three codes and found which code is better for design and controls the problem of high settlement due to the applied loads. The results showed the Chinese codes are costly that the number of reinforcement bars in the pile cap and piles is more than those with AASHTO code and BS code with the same dimensions. Settlement of the bridge was calculated depending on the data collected from the project site. The vertical ultimate bearing capacity of single pile for three codes is also discussed. Other analyses by using the two-dimensional Plaxis program and other programs like SAP2000 14, PROKON many parameters are calculated. The maximum values of the vertical displacement are close to the calculated ones. The results indicate that the AASHTO code is economics and safer in the bearing capacity of single pile. The purpose of this project is to study out the pier on the basis of the design of the pile foundation. There is a 32m simply supported beam of box section on top of the structure. The pier of bridge is round-type. The main component of the design is to calculate pile foundation and the settlement. According to the related data, we choose 1.0m in diameter bored pile of 48m. The pile is laid out in the rectangular pile cap. The dimension of the cap is 12m 9 m. Because of the interaction factors of pile groups, the load-bearing capacity of simple pile must be checked, the punching resistance of pile cap, the shearing strength of pile cap, and the part in bending of pile cap, all of them are very important to the structure stability. Also, checking soft sub-bearing capacity is necessary under the pile foundation. This project provides a deeper analysis and comparison about pile foundation design schemes. Firstly, here are brief instructions of the construction situation about the Bridge. With the actual construction geological features and the upper load on the Bridge, this paper analyzes the bearing capacity and settlement of single pile. In the paper the Equivalent Pier Method is used to calculate and analyze settlements of the piles.

Keywords: pile foundation, settlement, bearing capacity, civil engineering

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795 An Investigation of the Relationship Between Privacy Crisis, Public Discourse on Privacy, and Key Performance Indicators at Facebook (2004–2021)

Authors: Prajwal Eachempati, Laurent Muzellec, Ashish Kumar Jha

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We use Facebook as a case study to investigate the complex relationship between the firm’s public discourse (and actions) surrounding data privacy and the performance of a business model based on monetizing user’s data. We do so by looking at the evolution of public discourse over time (2004–2021) and relate topics to revenue and stock market evolution Drawing from archival sources like Zuckerberg We use LDA topic modelling algorithm to reveal 19 topics regrouped in 6 major themes. We first show how, by using persuasive and convincing language that promises better protection of consumer data usage, but also emphasizes greater user control over their own data, the privacy issue is being reframed as one of greater user control and responsibility. Second, we aim to understand and put a value on the extent to which privacy disclosures have a potential impact on the financial performance of social media firms. There we found significant relationship between the topics pertaining to privacy and social media/technology, sentiment score and stock market prices. Revenue is found to be impacted by topics pertaining to politics and new product and service innovations while number of active users is not impacted by the topics unless moderated by external control variables like Return on Assets and Brand Equity.

Keywords: public discourses, data protection, social media, privacy, topic modeling, business models, financial performance

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794 Review of Theories and Applications of Genetic Programing in Sediment Yield Modeling

Authors: Adesoji Tunbosun Jaiyeola, Josiah Adeyemo

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Sediment yield can be considered to be the total sediment load that leaves a drainage basin. The knowledge of the quantity of sediments present in a river at a particular time can lead to better flood capacity in reservoirs and consequently help to control over-bane flooding. Furthermore, as sediment accumulates in the reservoir, it gradually loses its ability to store water for the purposes for which it was built. The development of hydrological models to forecast the quantity of sediment present in a reservoir helps planners and managers of water resources systems, to understand the system better in terms of its problems and alternative ways to address them. The application of artificial intelligence models and technique to such real-life situations have proven to be an effective approach of solving complex problems. This paper makes an extensive review of literature relevant to the theories and applications of evolutionary algorithms, and most especially genetic programming. The successful applications of genetic programming as a soft computing technique were reviewed in sediment modelling and other branches of knowledge. Some fundamental issues such as benchmark, generalization ability, bloat and over-fitting and other open issues relating to the working principles of GP, which needs to be addressed by the GP community were also highlighted. This review aim to give GP theoreticians, researchers and the general community of GP enough research direction, valuable guide and also keep all stakeholders abreast of the issues which need attention during the next decade for the advancement of GP.

Keywords: benchmark, bloat, generalization, genetic programming, over-fitting, sediment yield

Procedia PDF Downloads 446
793 Supercritical Hydrothermal and Subcritical Glycolysis Conversion of Biomass Waste to Produce Biofuel and High-Value Products

Authors: Chiu-Hsuan Lee, Min-Hao Yuan, Kun-Cheng Lin, Qiao-Yin Tsai, Yun-Jie Lu, Yi-Jhen Wang, Hsin-Yi Lin, Chih-Hua Hsu, Jia-Rong Jhou, Si-Ying Li, Yi-Hung Chen, Je-Lueng Shie

Abstract:

Raw food waste has a high-water content. If it is incinerated, it will increase the cost of treatment. Therefore, composting or energy is usually used. There are mature technologies for composting food waste. Odor, wastewater, and other problems are serious, but the output of compost products is limited. And bakelite is mainly used in the manufacturing of integrated circuit boards. It is hard to directly recycle and reuse due to its hard structure and also difficult to incinerate and produce air pollutants due to incomplete incineration. In this study, supercritical hydrothermal and subcritical glycolysis thermal conversion technology is used to convert biomass wastes of bakelite and raw kitchen wastes to carbon materials and biofuels. Batch carbonization tests are performed under high temperature and pressure conditions of solvents and different operating conditions, including wet and dry base mixed biomass. This study can be divided into two parts. In the first part, bakelite waste is performed as dry-based industrial waste. And in the second part, raw kitchen wastes (lemon, banana, watermelon, and pineapple peel) are used as wet-based biomass ones. The parameters include reaction temperature, reaction time, mass-to-solvent ratio, and volume filling rates. The yield, conversion, and recovery rates of products (solid, gas, and liquid) are evaluated and discussed. The results explore the benefits of synergistic effects in thermal glycolysis dehydration and carbonization on the yield and recovery rate of solid products. The purpose is to obtain the optimum operating conditions. This technology is a biomass-negative carbon technology (BNCT); if it is combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), it can provide a new direction for 2050 net zero carbon dioxide emissions (NZCDE).

Keywords: biochar, raw food waste, bakelite, supercritical hydrothermal, subcritical glycolysis, biofuels

Procedia PDF Downloads 179
792 Evaluating Mechanical Properties of CoNiCrAlY Coating from Miniature Specimen Testing at Elevated Temperature

Authors: W. Wen, G. Jackson, S. Maskill, D. G. McCartney, W. Sun

Abstract:

CoNiCrAlY alloys have been widely used as bond coats for thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems because of low cost, improved control of composition, and the feasibility to tailor the coatings microstructures. Coatings are in general very thin structures, and therefore it is impossible to characterize the mechanical responses of the materials via conventional mechanical testing methods. Due to this reason, miniature specimen testing methods, such as the small punch test technique, have been developed. This paper presents some of the recent research in evaluating the mechanical properties of the CoNiCrAlY coatings at room and high temperatures, through the use of small punch testing and the developed miniature specimen tensile testing, applicable to a range of temperature, to investigate the elastic-plastic and creep behavior as well as ductile-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) behavior. An inverse procedure was developed to derive the mechanical properties from such tests for the coating materials. A two-layer specimen test method is also described. The key findings include: 1) the temperature-dependent coating properties can be accurately determined by the miniature tensile testing within a wide range of temperature; 2) consistent DBTTs can be identified by both the SPT and miniature tensile tests (~ 650 °C); and 3) the FE SPT modelling has shown good capability of simulating the early local cracking. In general, the temperature-dependent material behaviors of the CoNiCrAlY coating has been effectively characterized using miniature specimen testing and inverse method.

Keywords: NiCoCrAlY coatings, mechanical properties, DBTT, miniature specimen testing

Procedia PDF Downloads 169
791 Seismic Isolation of Existing Masonry Buildings: Recent Case Studies in Italy

Authors: Stefano Barone

Abstract:

Seismic retrofit of buildings through base isolation represents a consolidated protection strategy against earthquakes. It consists in decoupling the ground motion from that of the structure and introducing anti-seismic devices at the base of the building, characterized by high horizontal flexibility and medium/high dissipative capacity. This allows to protect structural elements and to limit damages to non-structural ones. For these reasons, full functionality is guaranteed after an earthquake event. Base isolation is applied extensively to both new and existing buildings. For the latter, it usually does not require any interruption of the structure use and occupants evacuation, a special advantage for strategic buildings such as schools, hospitals, and military buildings. This paper describes the application of seismic isolation to three existing masonry buildings in Italy: Villa “La Maddalena” in Macerata (Marche region), “Giacomo Matteotti” and “Plinio Il Giovane” school buildings in Perugia (Umbria region). The seismic hazard of the sites is characterized by a Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of 0.213g-0.287g for the Life Safety Limit State and between 0.271g-0.359g for the Collapse Limit State. All the buildings are isolated with a combination of free sliders type TETRON® CD with confined elastomeric disk and anti-seismic rubber isolators type ISOSISM® HDRB to reduce the eccentricity between the center of mass and stiffness, thus limiting torsional effects during a seismic event. The isolation systems are designed to lengthen the original period of vibration (i.e., without isolators) by at least three times and to guarantee medium/high levels of energy dissipation capacity (equivalent viscous damping between 12.5% and 16%). This allows the structures to resist 100% of the seismic design action. This article shows the performances of the supplied anti-seismic devices with particular attention to the experimental dynamic response. Finally, a special focus is given to the main site activities required to isolate a masonry building.

Keywords: retrofit, masonry buildings, seismic isolation, energy dissipation, anti-seismic devices

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790 Knowledge Based Behaviour Modelling and Execution in Service Robotics

Authors: Suraj Nair, Aravindkumar Vijayalingam, Alexander Perzylo, Alois Knoll

Abstract:

In the last decade robotics research and development activities have grown rapidly, especially in the domain of service robotics. Integrating service robots into human occupied spaces such as homes, offices, hospitals, etc. has become increasingly worked upon. The primary motive is to ease daily lives of humans by taking over some of the household/office chores. However, several challenges remain in systematically integrating such systems in human shared work-spaces. In addition to sensing and indoor-navigation challenges, programmability of such systems is a major hurdle due to the fact that the potential user cannot be expected to have knowledge in robotics or similar mechatronic systems. In this paper, we propose a cognitive system for service robotics which allows non-expert users to easily model system behaviour in an underspecified manner through abstract tasks and objects associated with them. The system uses domain knowledge expressed in the form of an ontology along with logical reasoning mechanisms to infer all the missing pieces of information required for executing the tasks. Furthermore, the system is also capable of recovering from failed tasks arising due to on-line disturbances by using the knowledge base and inferring alternate methods to execute the same tasks. The system is demonstrated through a coffee fetching scenario in an office environment using a mobile robot equipped with sensors and software capabilities for autonomous navigation and human-interaction through natural language.

Keywords: cognitive robotics, reasoning, service robotics, task based systems

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789 Two-Level Separation of High Air Conditioner Consumers and Demand Response Potential Estimation Based on Set Point Change

Authors: Mehdi Naserian, Mohammad Jooshaki, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Mohammad Hossein Mohammadi Sanjani, Ashknaz Oraee

Abstract:

In recent years, the development of communication infrastructure and smart meters have facilitated the utilization of demand-side resources which can enhance stability and economic efficiency of power systems. Direct load control programs can play an important role in the utilization of demand-side resources in the residential sector. However, investments required for installing control equipment can be a limiting factor in the development of such demand response programs. Thus, selection of consumers with higher potentials is crucial to the success of a direct load control program. Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which due to the heat capacity of buildings feature relatively high flexibility, make up a major part of household consumption. Considering that the consumption of HVAC systems depends highly on the ambient temperature and bearing in mind the high investments required for control systems enabling direct load control demand response programs, in this paper, a recent solution is presented to uncover consumers with high air conditioner demand among large number of consumers and to measure the demand response potential of such consumers. This can pave the way for estimating the investments needed for the implementation of direct load control programs for residential HVAC systems and for estimating the demand response potentials in a distribution system. In doing so, we first cluster consumers into several groups based on the correlation coefficients between hourly consumption data and hourly temperature data using K-means algorithm. Then, by applying a recent algorithm to the hourly consumption and temperature data, consumers with high air conditioner consumption are identified. Finally, demand response potential of such consumers is estimated based on the equivalent desired temperature setpoint changes.

Keywords: communication infrastructure, smart meters, power systems, HVAC system, residential HVAC systems

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788 Increasing Holism: Qualitative, Cross-Dimensional Study of Contemporary Innovation Processes

Authors: Sampo Tukiainen, Jukka Mattila, Niina Erkama, Erkki Ormala

Abstract:

During the past decade, calls for more holistic and integrative organizational innovation research have been increasingly voiced. On the one hand, from the theoretical perspective, the reason for this has been the tendency in contemporary innovation studies to focus on disciplinary subfields, often leading to challenges in integrating theories in meaningful ways. For example, we find that during the past three decades the innovation research has evolved into an academic field consisting of several independent research streams, such as studies on organizational learning, project management, and top management teams, to name but a few. The innovation research has also proliferated according to different dimensions of innovation, such as sources, drivers, forms, and the nature of innovation. On the other hand, from the practical perspective the rationale has been the need to develop understanding of the solving of complex, interdisciplinary issues and problems in contemporary and future societies and organizations. Therefore, for advancing theorizing, as well as the practical applicability of organizational innovation research, we acknowledge the need for more integrative and holistic perspectives and approaches. We contribute to addressing this challenge by developing a ‘box transcendent’ perspective to examine interlinkages in and across four key dimensions of organizational innovation processes, which traditionally have been studied in separate research streams. Building on an in-depth, qualitative analysis of 123 interviews of CTOs (or equivalent) and CEOs in top innovative Finnish companies as well as three in-depth case studies, both as part of an EU-level interview study of more than 700 companies, we specify interlinkages in and between i) strategic management, ii) innovation management, iii) implementation and organization, and iv) commercialization, in innovation processes. We contribute to the existing innovation research in multiple ways. Firstly, we develop a cross-dimensional, ‘box transcendent’ conceptual model at the level of organizational innovation process. Secondly, this modeling enables us to extend existing theorizing by allowing us to distinguish specific cross-dimensional innovation ‘profiles’ in two different company categories: large multinational corporations and SMEs. Finally, from the more practical perspective, we consider the implications of such innovation ‘profiles’ for the societal and institutional, policy-making development.

Keywords: holistic research, innovation management, innovation studies, organizational innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 327
787 Modelling the Tensile Behavior of Plasma Sprayed Freestanding Yttria Stabilized Zirconia Coatings

Authors: Supriya Patibanda, Xiaopeng Gong, Krishna N. Jonnalagadda, Ralph Abrahams

Abstract:

Yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) is used as a top coat in thermal barrier coatings in high-temperature turbine/jet engine applications. The mechanical behaviour of YSZ depends on the microstructural features like crack density and porosity, which are a result of coating method. However, experimentally ascertaining their individual effect is difficult due to the inherent challenges involved like material synthesis and handling. The current work deals with the development of a phenomenological model to replicate the tensile behavior of air plasma sprayed YSZ obtained from experiments. Initially, uniaxial tensile experiments were performed on freestanding YSZ coatings of ~300 µm thick for different crack densities and porosities. The coatings exhibited a nonlinear behavior and also a huge variation in strength values. With the obtained experimental tensile curve as a base and crack density and porosity as prime variables, a phenomenological model was developed using ABAQUS interface with new user material defined employing VUMAT sub routine. The relation between the tensile stress and the crack density was empirically established. Further, a parametric study was carried out to investigate the effect of the individual features on the non-linearity in these coatings. This work enables to generate new coating designs by varying the key parameters and predicting the mechanical properties with the help of a simulation, thereby minimizing experiments.

Keywords: crack density, finite element method, plasma sprayed coatings, VUMAT

Procedia PDF Downloads 148
786 Informing the Implementation of Career Conversations in Secondary Schools for the Building of Student Career Competencies: The Case of Portugal

Authors: Cristina Isabrl de Oliveira SAntos

Abstract:

The study aims to investigate how transferrable and effective career conversations could be, in the context of general track Portuguese secondary schools, with the view of improving students’ career competencies. It does so by analysing: 1) the extent to which students’ perceptions of career conversations relate with their existing career competencies, 2) the extent to which each of the parameters; perceptions of career conversations and student career competencies, relate with student situational and personal characteristics, 3) how patterns in perceptions of headteachers and of teachers at a school, regarding the implementation of career conversations, correlate to the views of students regarding career conversations and to school contextual characteristics. Data were collected from 27 secondary schools out of 32 in the same district of Aveiro, in Portugal. Interviews were performed individually, with 27 headteachers, and in groups, with a total of 10 teacher groups and 11 student groups. Survey responses were also collected from742 studentsand 310 teachers. Interview responses were coded and analysed using grounded theory principles. Data from questionnaires is currently beingscrutinised through descriptive statistics with SPSS, and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Triangulation during different stages of data analysis uses the principles of retroduction and abduction of the realist evaluation framework. Conclusions from the pilot-study indicate that student perceptions scores on content and relationship in career conversations change according to their career competencies and the type of school. Statistically significant differences in perceptions of career conversations were found for subgroups based on gender and parent educational level.

Keywords: career conversations, career competencies, secondary education, teachers

Procedia PDF Downloads 140
785 Acceleration Techniques of DEM Simulation for Dynamics of Particle Damping

Authors: Masato Saeki

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Presented herein is a novel algorithms for calculating the damping performance of particle dampers. The particle damper is a passive vibration control technique and has many practical applications due to simple design. It consists of granular materials constrained to move between two ends in the cavity of a primary vibrating system. The damping effect results from the exchange of momentum during the impact of granular materials against the wall of the cavity. This damping has the advantage of being independent of the environment. Therefore, particle damping can be applied in extreme temperature environments, where most conventional dampers would fail. It was shown experimentally in many papers that the efficiency of the particle dampers is high in the case of resonant vibration. In order to use the particle dampers effectively, it is necessary to solve the equations of motion for each particle, considering the granularity. The discrete element method (DEM) has been found to be effective for revealing the dynamics of particle damping. In this method, individual particles are assumed as rigid body and interparticle collisions are modeled by mechanical elements as springs and dashpots. However, the computational cost is significant since the equation of motion for each particle must be solved at each time step. In order to improve the computational efficiency of the DEM, the new algorithms are needed. In this study, new algorithms are proposed for implementing the high performance DEM. On the assumption that behaviors of the granular particles in the each divided area of the damper container are the same, the contact force of the primary system with all particles can be considered to be equal to the product of the divided number of the damper area and the contact force of the primary system with granular materials per divided area. This convenience makes it possible to considerably reduce the calculation time. The validity of this calculation method was investigated and the calculated results were compared with the experimental ones. This paper also presents the results of experimental studies of the performance of particle dampers. It is shown that the particle radius affect the noise level. It is also shown that the particle size and the particle material influence the damper performance.

Keywords: particle damping, discrete element method (DEM), granular materials, numerical analysis, equivalent noise level

Procedia PDF Downloads 453
784 Simulation of Glass Breakage Using Voronoi Random Field Tessellations

Authors: Michael A. Kraus, Navid Pourmoghaddam, Martin Botz, Jens Schneider, Geralt Siebert

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Fragmentation analysis of tempered glass gives insight into the quality of the tempering process and defines a certain degree of safety as well. Different standard such as the European EN 12150-1 or the American ASTM C 1048/CPSC 16 CFR 1201 define a minimum number of fragments required for soda-lime safety glass on the basis of fragmentation test results for classification. This work presents an approach for the glass breakage pattern prediction using a Voronoi Tesselation over Random Fields. The random Voronoi tessellation is trained with and validated against data from several breakage patterns. The fragments in observation areas of 50 mm x 50 mm were used for training and validation. All glass specimen used in this study were commercially available soda-lime glasses at three different thicknesses levels of 4 mm, 8 mm and 12 mm. The results of this work form a Bayesian framework for the training and prediction of breakage patterns of tempered soda-lime glass using a Voronoi Random Field Tesselation. Uncertainties occurring in this process can be well quantified, and several statistical measures of the pattern can be preservation with this method. Within this work it was found, that different Random Fields as basis for the Voronoi Tesselation lead to differently well fitted statistical properties of the glass breakage patterns. As the methodology is derived and kept general, the framework could be also applied to other random tesselations and crack pattern modelling purposes.

Keywords: glass breakage predicition, Voronoi Random Field Tessellation, fragmentation analysis, Bayesian parameter identification

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783 Bayesian Flexibility Modelling of the Conditional Autoregressive Prior in a Disease Mapping Model

Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi

Abstract:

The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.

Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models

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782 Livestock Depredation by Large Predators: Patterns, Perceptions and Implications for Conservation and Livelihoods in Karakoram Mountain Ranges

Authors: Muhammad Zafar Khan, Babar Khan, Muhammad Saeed Awan, Farida Begum

Abstract:

Livestock depredation has greater significance in pastoral societies like Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindu Kush mountain ranges. The dynamics of depredation by large predators (snow leopard and wolf) and its implications for conservation and livelihoods of local people was investigated by household surveys in Hushey valley of Central Karakoram National Park, Pakistan. We found that, during five years (2008-12) 90% of the households in the valley had lost their livestock to snow leopard and wolf, accounting for 4.3% of the total livestock holding per year. On average each household had to bear a loss of 0.8 livestock head per year, equivalent to Pak Rupees 9,853 (US$ 101), or 10% of the average annual cash income. Majority of the predation incidences occurred during late summer in alpine pastures, mostly at night when animals were not penned properly. The prey animals in most of the cases were females or young ones. Of the total predation incidences, 60% were attributed to snow leopard, 37% to wolf, while in 3% the predator was unknown. The fear of snow leopard is greater than that of wolf. As immediate response on predation, majority of the local people (64%, n=99) preferred to report the case to their village conservation committee, 32% had no response while only 1% tended to kill the predator. The perceived causes of predation were: poor guarding practices (77%); reduction in wild prey (13%) and livestock being the favourite food of predators (10%). The most preferred strategies for predator management, according to the respondents were improved and enhanced guarding of livestock (72%), followed by increasing wild prey (18%) and lethal control (10%). To strike a balance between predator populations and pastoral livelihoods, better animal husbandry practices should be promoted including: improved guarding through collective hiring of skilled shepherds; corral improvement and use of guard dogs.

Keywords: Panthera unica, Canis lupus, Karakoram, human-carnivore conflict, predation

Procedia PDF Downloads 256