Search results for: market risk

Authors: Yong Li

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Major cities in China has experienced a shift from production based on manufacturing industry to tertiary industry. How to make a better use of existing obsolete industrial land within urban cores has become a difficult problem for many policymakers. City governments regard old manufacturing industrial land as an important source of land to facilitate the development of the cities. Despite the announcement of policies in promoting that, a large portion of industrial land is still not properly redeveloped and most of them became obsolete. The study uses the project of Xinyi International Club as a case to examine the process of adaptive reuse of obsolete industrial space in Guangzhou, China. It attempts to elucidate the underlying mechanisms by identifying the key forces from both the government and the private sectors in influencing the process. The study found that market forces in transforming industrial space are exerting a strong impact on the existing land use planning system in Chinese cities. Pragmatic relaxation of the formal land use the regulatory framework and government supportive land-use intervention have also been crucial towards achieving successful implementation of the restructuring project and making it a showcase. This study questions whether these extraordinary measures, in particular, the use of temporary land use permit, are sustainable in facilitating the transformation of derelict industrial land, and in informing future industrial land-use restructuring policies. It concludes that, while the land use regulatory system in China is becoming increasingly dynamic and flexible, it remains ill-equipped in responding positively to the market, which is characterized by an increasing bargaining power of the private sector. A comprehensive appraisal of the overall impacts of these adaptive re-uses on society is wanting.

Keywords: China, land alteration, obsolete industrial properties, urban planning

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Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

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This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

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Authors: Ratchasak Suvannatsiri

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The objectives of the research are to find the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil and to predict the impact on community members who live nearby the excavation pits in the area of Amphur Pak Thor, Ratchaburi Province in the western area of Thailand. The research was conducted by collecting soil samples from four excavation pits for basic engineering properties, testing and collecting questionnaire data from 120 community members who live nearby the excavation pits, and applying statistical analysis. The results found that the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil can be classified into silt soil type which is cohesionless as the loess or collapsible soil which is not suitable to be used for a pavement structure for commuting highway because it could lead to structural and functional failure in the long run. In terms of opinion from community members toward the impact, the highest impact was on the dust from excavation activities. The prediction from the logistic regression in terms of impact on community members was at 84.32 which can be adapted and applied onto other areas with the same context as a guideline for risk prevention and risk communication since it could impact the infrastructures and also impact the health of community members.

Keywords: lateritic soil, excavation pits, engineering properties, impact on community members

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Authors: Marie Madeleine Sarzi Inacio, Ligiane Carolina Leite Dauzacker, Rodrigo Henriques Lopes Da Silva

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The climate changes resulting from human activity have increased interest in more sustainable production practices to reduce and offset pollutant emissions. Brazil, with its vast areas capable of carbon absorption, holds a significant advantage in this context. However, to optimize the country's sustainable potential, it is important to establish a robust carbon market with clear rules for the eligibility and validation of projects aimed at reducing and offsetting Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, our objective is to conduct a feasibility analysis through a case study to evaluate the implementation of an urban forest credits standard in Brazil, using the Urban Forest Credits (UFC) model implemented in the United States as a reference. Thus, the city of Ribeirão Preto, located in Brazil, was selected to assess the availability of green areas. With the CO2 emissions value from the metalworking industry, it was possible to analyze information in the case study, considering the activity. The QGIS software was used to map potential urban forest areas, which can connect to various types of geospatial databases. Although the chosen municipality has little vegetative coverage, the mapping identified at least eight areas that fit the standard definitions within the delimited urban perimeter. The outlook was positive, and the implementation of projects like Urban Forest Credits (UFC) adapted to the Brazilian reality has great potential to benefit the country in the carbon market and contribute to achieving its Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction goals.

Keywords: carbon neutrality, metalworking industry, carbon credits, urban forestry credits

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Authors: Alldila Hendy, Agi Satria

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Background: A colostomy procedure is an important part in the management of surgical procedures in some diseases involving the gastrointestinal tract. So it is necessary to find the factors that influence the occurrence of complications. Methods: This is a retrospective cross-sectional analytic study in Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital noting medical records of patients after the colostomy from January 2012 to December 2014 at the Division of Digestive Surgery. Results: In 136 cases of post-colostomy, 66 cases have complications, 14 is early-onset, and 52 is late-onset. 70 is without complications. Most complications are dermatitis, which is 31 (22.8%), cases of infection/abscess/fistula and intestinal obstruction are 13 (9.6%) and 5 patients (4.4%). A rare complication is colostomy retraction by 2 patients (1.5%), colostomy prolapse and necrosis/gangrene, which is only 3 patients (2.2%). A colostomy procedure in emergency surgery is riskier than elective surgery for complications after colostomy (p < 0.007, OR 2.85), Based on the operator who performs a colostomy procedure, the consultant had a lower risk of complications than fellow or resident (p < 0.0001). Based on the age factor, where the age of about 50 years has a risk of complications after colostomy (p < 0.018). Conclusion: The timing of operation (emergency or elective), age, and operator who perform a colostomy procedure have a significant relationship with an increased prevalence of complications after colostomy in RSCM.

Keywords: colostomy, complications, factors, procedure

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Authors: Jorge Santos, Ana V. Girão, F. J. Oliveira, Alexandre C. Bastos

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Protective or decorative coatings containing hexavalent chromium compounds are still used on metal and plastic parts. These hexavalent chromium compounds represent a risk to living beings and the environment, and, for this reason, there is a great need to investigate alternatives. Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD) is an environmentally friendly process that allows the deposition of wear and corrosion resistant thin films with excellent optical properties. However, PVD thin films are porous and if deposited onto low corrosion resistant substrates, lead to a degradation risk. The corrosion behavior of chromium-free electroplated coating systems finished with magnetron sputtered PVD thin films was investigated in this work. The electroplated systems consisted of distinct nickel layers deposited on top of a copper interlayer on acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) plates. Electrochemical and corrosion evaluation was conducted by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and polarization curves on the different electroplated coating systems, with and without PVD thin film on top. The results show that the corrosion resistance is lower for the electroplated coating systems finished with PVD thin film for extended exposure periods when compared to those without the PVD overlay.

Keywords: PVD, electroplating, corrosion, thin film

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Authors: S. O. Okoro

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Some words become the catch phrase of a particular decade. Globalization, Openness, and Privatization are certainly among the most frequently encapsulation of 1990’s; the market is ‘in’, ‘the state is out’. In the 1970’s, there were many political economists who spoke of autarky as one possible response to global economic forces. Be self-contained, go it alone, put up barriers to trans-nationalities, put in place import-substitution industrialization policy and grow domestic industries. In 1990’s, the emasculation of the state is by no means complete, but there is an acceptance that the state’s power is circumscribed by forces beyond its control and potential leverage. Autarky is no longer as a policy option. Nigeria, since its emergence as an independent nation, has evolved two macroeconomic management regimes of the interventionist and market friendly styles. This paper investigates Nigeria’s growth performance over the periods incorporating these two regimes and finds that there is no structural break in Total Factor Productivity, (TFP) growth and besides, the TFP growth over the entire period of study 1970-2012 is very negligible and hence growth can only be achieved by the unsustainable factor accumulation. Another important finding of this work is that the openness-human capital interaction term has a significant impact on the TFP growth, but the sign of the estimated coefficient does not meet it a theoretical expectation. This is because the negative coefficient on the human capital outweighs the positive openness effect. The poor quality of human capital is considered to have given rise to this. Given these results a massive investment in the education sector is required. The investment should be targeted at reforms that go beyond mere structural reforms to a reform agenda that will improve the quality of human capital in Nigeria.

Keywords: globalization, emasculation, openness and privatization, total factor productivity

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Authors: Nur H. Ahmad, Silvia S. Inge, Vanessa A. Julliete, A. Veraditias, Laila F. Febinda

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Abdominal obesity is a risk factor for metabolic syndrome and mostly found in adolescents. Waist circumference is related to abdominal obesity which has a significant effect on the increase of blood pressure. Inulin is one of prebiotic, that has health benefits by offering the potential for lipid management, that can be useful to decrease the risk factor of metabolic syndrome. The aim of the research is to evaluate the effect of 10 gram inulin-substituted ice cream in waist circumference and blood pressure of abdominal obesity adolescents. Inulin had the ability to produce Short Chain Fatty Acid which can improve blood pressure and waist circumference. Systolic blood pressure was significantly decreased in the treatment group (p=0.028) with the mean of reduction 7.35 ± 11.59 mmHg. However, diastolic blood pressure and waist circumference showed no significant effect. Waist circumference, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure was decreased in control group. These results suggest that inulin-substituted ice cream used as therapeutics and prevention for the early onset of metabolic syndrome.

Keywords: blood pressure, inulin, metabolic syndrome, waist circumference

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Authors: Ramatu I. Sha’aba, Mathias A. Chia, Abdullahi B. Alhassan, Yisa A. Gana, Ibrahim M. Gadzama

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Globally, Diclofenac (DLC) and Ibuprofen (IBU) are the most prescribed drugs due to their antipyretic and analgesic properties. They are, however, highly toxic at elevated doses, with the involvement of an already described oxidative stress pathway. As a result, there is rising concern about the ecological fate of analgesics on non-target organisms such as Daphnia magna and Phytoplankton species. Phytoplankton is a crucial component of the aquatic ecosystem that serves as the primary producer at the base of the food chain. However, the increasing presence and levels of micropollutants such as these analgesics can disrupt their community structure, dynamics, and ecosystem functions. This study presents a comprehensive series of the physiology, antioxidant response, immobilization, and risk assessment of Diclofenac and Ibuprofen’s effects on Daphnia magna and the Phytoplankton community using a laboratory approach. The effect of DLC and IBU at 27.16 µg/L and 20.89 µg/L, respectively, for a single exposure and 22.39 µg/L for combined exposure of DLC and IBU for the experimental setup. The antioxidant response increased with increasing levels of stress. The highest stressor to the organism was 1000 µg/L of DLC and 10,000 µg/L of IBU. Peroxidase and glutathione -S-transferase activity was higher for Diclofenac + Ibuprofen. The study showed 60% and 70% immobilization of the organism at 1000 g L-1 of DLC and IBU. The two drugs and their combinations adversely impacted Phytoplankton biomass with increased exposure time. However, combining the drugs resulted in more significant adverse effects on physiological and pigment content parameters. The risk assessment calculation for the risk quotient and toxic unit of the analgesic reveals from this study was RQ Diclofenac = 8.41, TU Diclofenac = 3.68, and RQ Ibuprofen = 718.05 and TU Ibuprofen = 487.70. Hence, these findings demonstrate that the current exposure concentrations of Diclofenac and Ibuprofen can immobilize D. magna. This study shows the dangers of multiple drugs in the aquatic environment because their combinations could have additive effects on the structure and functions of Phytoplankton and are capable of immobilizing D. magna.

Keywords: algae, analgesic drug, daphnia magna, toxicity

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Authors: Sadia Saleem

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Infertility is a global health concern that may have a long-lasting effect on the psychosocial functioning of an individual. Rich research evidence has shown that women with infertility are at greater risk of adverse psychological experiences than men. The culture plays a risk factor when it comes to infertility. Family is considered as a central focus of a collectivistic culture like Pakistan and having children is the key factor that determines the quality of a marital relationship, individual well-being and overall standing in the society. In this collectivistic cultural context, women usually get the blame and experience more psychological distress and social isolation. A total sample of 121 (M 28.17, SD 4.73) women with primary infertility selected through purposive sampling were tested using Emotional Disclosure Questionnaire, Couple Satisfaction Index and Depression Anxiety Stress Scale. The results indicate that negative emotional disclosure positively mediates the relationship between marital satisfaction and mental health problems (p < .001) in women with primary infertility. The results are discussed in terms of psychosocial counseling and family psychoeducation in Pakistani collectivistic cultural context.

Keywords: infertility, couple satisfaction, emotional disclosure, mental health

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Authors: Mehrdad Sheikhvatan, Mohammad Ali Boroumand, Mehrdad Behmanesh, Shayan Ziaee

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Contradictory results have been obtained regarding the role of integrin, beta 3 (ITGB3) gene polymorphisms in occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Hence, we aimed to assess the association between 1565C/T polymorphism of ITGB3 gene and increased risk for acute MI in patients who suffered premature CAD in Iranian population. Our prospective study included 1000 patients (492 men and 508 women aged 21 to 55 years) referred to Tehran Heart center during a period of four years from 2008 to 2011 with the final diagnosis of premature CAD and classified into two groups with history of MI (n = 461) and without of MI (n = 539). The polymorphism variants were determined by PCR-RFLP technique by entering 10% of randomized samples and then genotyping of the polymorphism was also conducted by High Resolution Melting (HRM) method. Among study samples, 640 were followed with a median follow-up time 45.74 months for determining association of long-term major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and genotypes of polymorphisms. There was no significant difference in the frequency of 1565C/T polymorphism between the MI and non-MI groups. The frequency of wild genotype was 69.2% and 72.2%, the frequency of homozygous genotype was 21.3% and 18.4%, and the frequency of mutant genotype was 9.5% and 9.5%, respectively (p=0.505). Results were also similar when adjusted for covariates in a multivariate logistic regression model. No significant difference was also found in total-MACE free survival rate between the patients with different genotypes of 1565C/T polymorphism in both MI and non-MI group. The carriage of the 1565C/T polymorphism of ITGB3 gene seems unlikely to be a significant risk factor for the development of MI in Iranian patients with premature CAD. The presence of this ITGB3 gene polymorphism may not also predict long-term cardiac events.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, gene, integrin, beta 3, polymorphism

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Authors: Kien Vu, Jien Min Soh, Mohamed Jahangir Abubacker, Piyawut Pattamanon, Soojin Lee, Suvro Banerjee

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Recent advances in Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI), in particular Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise to disrupt multiple industries at scale. However, LLMs also present unique challenges, notably, these so-called "hallucination" which is the generation of outputs that are not grounded in the input data that hinders its adoption into production. Common practice to mitigate hallucination problem is utilizing Retrieval Agmented Generation (RAG) system to ground LLMs'response to ground truth. RAG converts the grounding documents into embeddings, retrieve the relevant parts with vector similarity between user's query and documents, then generates a response that is not only based on its pre-trained knowledge but also on the specific information from the retrieved documents. However, the RAG system is not suitable for tabular data and subsequent data analysis tasks due to multiple reasons such as information loss, data format, and retrieval mechanism. In this study, we have explored a novel methodology that combines planning-and-execution and code generation agents to enhance LLMs' data analysis capabilities. The approach enables LLMs to autonomously dissect a complex analytical task into simpler sub-tasks and requirements, then convert them into executable segments of code. In the final step, it generates the complete response from output of the executed code. When deployed beta version on DataSense, the property insight tool of PropertyGuru, the approach yielded promising results, as it was able to provide market insights and data visualization needs with high accuracy and extensive coverage by abstracting the complexities for real-estate agents and developers from non-programming background. In essence, the methodology not only refines the analytical process but also serves as a strategic tool for real estate professionals, aiding in market understanding and enhancement without the need for programming skills. The implication extends beyond immediate analytics, paving the way for a new era in the real estate industry characterized by efficiency and advanced data utilization.

Keywords: large language model, reasoning, planning and execution, code generation, natural language processing, prompt engineering, data analysis, real estate, data sense, PropertyGuru

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Authors: Jang kyun Cho, Jeong-dong Lee

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The advent of the Internet, mobile communications, and social network services has stimulated social interactions among consumers, allowing people to affect one another’s innovation adoptions by exchanging information more frequently and more quickly. Previous diffusion models, such as the Bass model, however, face limitations in reflecting such recent phenomena in society. These models are weak in their ability to model interactions between agents; they model aggregated-level behaviors only. The agent based model, which is an alternative to the aggregate model, is good for individual modeling, but it is still not based on an economic perspective of social interactions so far. This study assumes the presence of social utility from other consumers in the adoption of innovation and investigates the effect of individual interactions on innovation diffusion by developing a new model called the interaction-based diffusion model. By comparing this model with previous diffusion models, the study also examines how the proposed model explains innovation diffusion from the perspective of economics. In addition, the study recommends the use of a small-world network topology instead of cellular automata to describe innovation diffusion. This study develops a model based on individual preference and heterogeneous social interactions using utility specification, which is expandable and, thus, able to encompass various issues in diffusion research, such as reservation price. Furthermore, the study proposes a new framework to forecast aggregated-level market demand from individual level modeling. The model also exhibits a good fit to real market data. It is expected that the study will contribute to our understanding of the innovation diffusion process through its microeconomic theoretical approach.

Keywords: innovation diffusion, agent based model, small-world network, demand forecasting

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Authors: Miroslav Čulík, Petr Gurný

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This paper is aimed at the financial assessment of the hard coal mining in a given region by real option methodology application. Hard coal mining in this mine makes net loss for the owner during the last years due to the long-term unfavourable mining conditions and significant drop in the coal prices during the last years. Management is going to shut down the operation and abandon the project to reduce the loss of the company. The goal is to assess whether the shutting down the operation is the only and correct solution of the problem. Due to the uncertainty in the future hard coal price evolution, the production might be again restarted if the price raises enough to cover the cost of the production. For the assessment, real option methodology is applied, which captures two important aspect of the financial decision-making: risk and flexibility. The paper is structured as follows: first, current state is described and problem is analysed. Next, methodology of real options is described. At last, project is evaluated by applying real option methodology. The results are commented and recommendations are provided.

Keywords: real option, investment, option to abandon, option to shut down and restart, risk, flexibility

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Authors: Ogundele Lasun Tunde, Ayeku Oluwagbemiga Patrick

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Heavy metals are released into the sediments in aquatic environment from both natural and anthropogenic sources and they are considered as worldwide issue due to their deleterious ecological risks and food chain disruption. In this study, sediments samples were collected at three major sites (Awoye, Abereke and Ayetoro) along Ondo coastal area using VanVeen grab sampler. The concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were determined by employing Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS). The combined concentrations data were subjected to Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) receptor approach for source identification and apportionment. The probable risks that might be posed by heavy metals in the sediment were estimated by potential and integrated ecological risks indices. Among the measured heavy metals, Fe had the average concentrations of 20.38 ± 2.86, 23.56 ± 4.16 and 25.32 ± 4.83 lg/g at Abereke, Awoye and Ayetoro sites, respectively. The PMF resulted in identification of four sources of heavy metals in the sediments. The resolved sources and their percentage contributions were oil exploration (39%), industrial waste/sludge (35%), detrital process (18%) and Mn-sources (8%). Oil exploration activities and industrial wastes are the major sources that contribute heavy metals into the coastal sediments. The major pollutants that posed ecological risks to the local aquatic ecosystem are As, Pb, Cr and Cd (40 B Ei ≤ 80) classifying the sites as moderate risk. The integrate risks values of Awoye, Abereke and Ayetoro are 231.2, 234.0 and 236.4, respectively suggesting that the study areas had a moderate ecological risk. The study showed the suitability of PMF receptor model for source identification of heavy metals in the sediments. Also, the intensive anthropogenic activities and natural sources could largely discharge heavy metals into the study area, which may increase the heavy metal contents of the sediments and further contribute to the associated ecological risk, thus affecting the local aquatic ecosystem.

Keywords: positive matrix factorization, sediments, heavy metals, sources, ecological risks

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Authors: Anita Lazurko, Laszlo Pinter, Jeremy Richardson

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Uncertain climate projections, multiple possible development futures, and a financing gap create challenges for water infrastructure decision making. In contrast to conventional predict-plan-act methods, an emerging decision paradigm that enables social-ecological resilience supports decisions that are appropriate for uncertainty and leverage social, ecological, and economic multifunctionality. Concurrently, water infrastructure project finance plays a powerful role in sustainable infrastructure development but remains disconnected from discourse in socio-ecological resilience. At the time of research, a project to transfer water from Lesotho to Botswana through South Africa in the Orange-Senqu River Basin was at the pre-feasibility stage. This case was analysed through documents and interviews to investigate how uncertainty and multifunctionality are conceptualised and considered in decisions for the resilience of water infrastructure and to explore bridging concepts that might allow project finance to better enable socio-ecological resilience. Interviewees conceptualised uncertainty as risk, ambiguity and ignorance, and multifunctionality as politically-motivated shared benefits. Numerous efforts to adopt emerging decision methods that consider these terms were in use but required compromises to accommodate the persistent, conventional decision paradigm, though a range of future opportunities was identified. Bridging these findings to finance revealed opportunities to consider a more comprehensive scope of risk, to leverage risk mitigation measures, to diffuse risks and benefits over space, time and to diverse actor groups, and to clarify roles to achieve multiple objectives for resilience. In addition to insights into how multiple decision paradigms interact in real-world decision contexts, the research highlights untapped potential at the juncture between socio-ecological resilience and project finance.

Keywords: socio-ecological resilience, finance, multifunctionality, uncertainty

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Authors: Riffat Iqbal, Sidra Ihsan, Andleeb Batool, Maryam Mukhtar

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Glaucoma is a gathering of optic neuropathies described by dynamic degeneration of retinal ganglionic cells. It is clinically and innately heterogenous illness containing a couple of particular forms each with various causes and severities. Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is the most generally perceived kind of glaucoma. This study investigated the genetic association of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs10483727 and rs33912345) at the SIX1/SIX6 locus with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in the Pakistani population. The SIX6 gene plays an important role in ocular development and has been associated with morphology of the optic nerve. A total of 100 patients clinically diagnosed with glaucoma and 100 control individuals of age over 40 were enrolled in the study. Genomic DNA was extracted by organic extraction method. The SNP genotyping was done by (i) PCR based restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and sequencing method. Significant genetic associations were observed for rs10483727 (risk allele T) and rs33912345 (risk allele C) with POAG. Hence, it was concluded that Six6 gene is genetically associated with pathogenesis of Glaucoma in Pakistan.

Keywords: genotyping, Pakistani population, primary open-angle glaucoma, SIX6 gene

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Authors: Sadia Munir, Diana White, Aya Albahri, Pratiwi Hastania, Eltahir Mohamed, Mahmood Khan, Fathima Mohamed, Ayat Kadhi, Haila Saleem

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Preeclampsia is a major complication of pregnancy. Prediction and management of preeclampsia is a challenge for obstetricians. To our knowledge, no major progress has been achieved in the prevention and early detection of preeclampsia. There is very little known about the clear treatment path of this disorder. Preeclampsia puts both mother and baby at risk of several short term- and long term-health problems later in life. There is huge health service cost burden in the health care system associated with preeclampsia and its complications. Preeclampsia is divided into two different types. Early onset preeclampsia develops before 34 weeks of gestation, and late onset develops at or after 34 weeks of gestation. Different genetic and environmental factors, prognosis, heritability, biochemical and clinical features are associated with early and late onset preeclampsia. Prevalence of preeclampsia greatly varies all over the world and is dependent on ethnicity of the population and geographic region. To authors best knowledge, no published data on preeclampsia exist in Qatar. In this study, we are reporting the incidence of preeclampsia in Qatar. The purpose of this study is to compare the incidence and risk factors of both early onset and late onset preeclampsia in Qatar. This retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted using data from the hospital record of Women’s Hospital, Hamad Medical Corporation (HMC), from May 2014-May 2016. Data collection tool, which was approved by HMC, was a researcher made extraction sheet that included information such as blood pressure during admission, socio demographic characteristics, delivery mode, and new born details. A total of 1929 patients’ files were identified by the hospital information management when they apply codes of preeclampsia. Out of 1929 files, 878 had significant gestational hypertension without proteinuria, 365 had preeclampsia, 364 had severe preeclampsia, and 188 had preexisting hypertension with superimposed proteinuria. In this study, 78% of the data was obtained by hospital electronic system (Cerner) and the remaining 22% was from patient’s paper records. We have gone through detail data extraction from 560 files. Initial data analysis has revealed that 15.02% of pregnancies were complicated with preeclampsia from May 2014-May 2016. We have analyzed difference in the two different disease entities in the ethnicity, maternal age, severity of hypertension, mode of delivery and infant birth weight. We have identified promising differences in the risk factors of early onset and late onset preeclampsia. The data from clinical findings of preeclampsia will contribute to increased knowledge about two different disease entities, their etiology, and similarities/differences. The findings of this study can also be used in predicting health challenges, improving health care system, setting up guidelines, and providing the best care for women suffering from preeclampsia.

Keywords: preeclampsia, incidence, risk factors, maternal

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Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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Authors: Dial Tassadit Rania, Figueiredo De Oliveira Gabriel

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In this paper, we investigate the relationship between ports and their hinterland and foreland environments and the competitive relationship between the ports themselves. These two environments are changing, evolving and introducing new challenges for commercial and economic development at the regional, national and international levels. Because of the rise of the containerization phenomenon, shipping costs and port handling costs have considerably decreased due to economies of scale. The volume of maritime trade has increased substantially and the markets served by the ports have expanded. On these bases, overlapping hinterlands can give rise to the phenomenon of competition between ports. Our main contribution comparing to the existing literature on this issue, is to build a set of hinterland, foreland and competition indicators. Using these indicators? we investigate the effect of hinterland accessibility, foreland connectivity and inter-ports competition on containerized traffic of Europeans ports. For this, we have a 10-year panel database from 2004 to 2014. Our hinterland indicators are given by two indicators of accessibility; they describe the market potential of a port and are calculated using information on population and wealth (GDP). We then calculate population and wealth for different neighborhoods within a distance from a port ranging from 100 to 1000km. For the foreland, we produce two indicators: port connectivity and number of partners for each port. Finally, we compute the two indicators of inter-port competition and a market concentration indicator (Hirshmann-Herfindhal) for different neighborhood-distances around the port. We then apply a fixed-effect model to test the relationship above. Again, with a fixed effects model, we do a sensitivity analysis for each of these indicators to support the results obtained. The econometric results of the general model given by the regression of the accessibility indicators, the LSCI for port i, and the inter-port competition indicator on the containerized traffic of European ports show a positive and significant effect for accessibility to wealth and not to the population. The results are positive and significant for the two indicators of connectivity and competition as well. One of the main results of this research is that the port development given here by the increase of its containerized traffic is strongly related to the development of its hinterland and foreland environment. In addition, it is the market potential, given by the wealth of the hinterland that has an impact on the containerized traffic of a port. However, accessibility to a large population pool is not important for understanding the dynamics of containerized port traffic. Furthermore, in order to continue to develop, a port must penetrate its hinterland at a deep level exceeding 100 km around the port and seek markets beyond this perimeter. The port authorities could focus their marketing efforts on the immediate hinterland, which can, as the results shows, not be captive and thus engage new approaches of port governance to make it more attractive.

Keywords: accessibility, connectivity, European containerization, European hinterland and foreland, inter-port competition

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Authors: Kadiri Kayode Ibrahim, Kadiri Omowunmi

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The research study was concerned with an evaluation of the effect of marketing strategy on the performance of SMEs in Abuja. This was achieved, specifically, through the examination of the effect of disaggregated components of Marketing Strategy (Product, Price, Promotion, Placement and Process) on Sales Volume (as a proxy for performance). The study design was causal in nature, with the use of quantitative methods involving a cross-sectional survey carried out with the administration of a structured questionnaire. A multistage sample of 398 respondents was utilized to provide the primary data used in the study. Subsequently, path analysis was employed in processing the obtained data and testing formulated hypotheses. Findings from the study indicated that all modeled components of marketing strategy were positive and statistically significant determinants of performance among businesses in the zone. It was, therefore, recommended that SMEs invest in continuous product innovation and development that are in line with the needs and preferences of the target market, as well as adopt a dynamic pricing strategy that considers both cost factors and market conditions. It is, therefore, crucial that businesses in the zone adopt marker communication measures that would stimulate brand awareness and increase engagement, including the use of social media platforms and content marketing. Additionally, owner-managers should ensure that their products are readily available to their target customers through an emphasis on availability and accessibility measures. Furthermore, a commitment to consistent optimization of internal operations is crucial for improved productivity, reduced costs, and enhanced customer satisfaction, which in turn will positively impact their overall performance.

Keywords: product, price, promotion, placement

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Authors: Winnie Kung, Xinhua Liu, Debbie Huang, Patricia Kim, Keon Kim, Xiaoran Wang, Lawrence Yang

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Considerable Asian Americans were exposed to the World Trade Center attack due to the proximity of the site to Chinatown and a sizeable number of South Asians working in the collapsed and damaged buildings nearby. Few studies focused on Asians in examining the disaster’s mental health impact, and even less longitudinal studies were reported beyond the first couple of years after the event. Based on the World Trade Center Health Registry, this study examined the trajectory of PTSD of individuals directly exposed to the attack from 2-3 to 5-6 years after the attack, comparing Asians against the non-Hispanic White group. Participants included 2,431 Asians and 31,455 Whites. Trajectories were delineated into the resilient, chronic, delayed-onset and remitted groups using PTSD checklist cut-off score at 44 at the 2 waves. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to compare the poorer trajectories against the resilient as a reference group, using predictors of baseline sociodemographic, exposure to the disaster, lower respiratory symptoms and previous depression/anxiety disorder diagnosis, and recruitment source as the control variable. Asians had significant lower socioeconomic status in terms of income, education and employment status compared to Whites. Over 3/4 of participants from both races were resilient, though slightly less for Asians than Whites (76.5% vs 79.8%). Asians had a higher proportion with chronic PTSD (8.6% vs 7.4%) and remission (5.9% vs 3.4%) than Whites. A considerable proportion of participants had delayed-onset in both races (9.1% Asians vs 9.4% Whites). The distribution of trajectories differed significantly by race (p<0.0001) with Asians faring poorer. For Asians, in the chronic vs resilient group, significant protective factors included age >65, annual household income >$50,000, and never married vs married/cohabiting; risk factors were direct disaster exposure, job loss due to 9/11, lost someone, and tangible loss; lower respiratory symptoms and previous mental disorder diagnoses. Similar protective and risk factors were noted for the delayed-onset group, except education being protective; and being an immigrant a risk. Between the 2 comparisons, the chronic group was more vulnerable than the delayed-onset as expected. It should also be noted that in both comparisons, Asians’ current employment status had no significant impact on their PTSD trajectory. Comparing between Asians against Whites, the direction of the relationships between the predictors and the PTSD trajectories were mostly the same, although more factors were significant for Whites than for Asians. A few factors showed significant racial difference: Higher risk for lower respiratory symptoms for Whites than Asians, higher risk for pre-9/11 mental disorder diagnosis for Asians than Whites, and immigrant a risk factor for the remitted vs resilient groups for Whites but not for Asians. Over 17% Asians still suffered from PTSD 5-6 years after the WTC attack signified its persistent impact which incurred substantial human, social and economic costs. The more disadvantaged socioeconomic status of Asians rendered them more vulnerable in their mental health trajectories relative to Whites. Together with their well-documented low tendency to seek mental health help, outreach effort to this population is needed to ensure follow-up treatment and prevention.

Keywords: PTSD, Asian Americans, World Trade Center Attack, racial differences

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Authors: Prasansha Kumari

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This paper intends to identify and analyze customer adoption and attitudes towards mobile banking facilities. The study uses six perceived characteristics of innovation that can be used to form a favorable or unfavorable attitude toward an innovation, namely: Relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trailability, risk, and observability. Collected data were analyzed using Pearson Chi-Square test. The results showed that mobile bank users were predominantly males. There is a growing trend among young, educated customers towards converting to mobile banking in Sri Lanka. The research outcomes suggested that all the six factors are statistically highly significant in influencing mobile banking adoption and attitude formation towards mobile banking in Sri Lanka. The major reasons for adopting mobile banking services are the accessibility and availability of services regardless of time and place. Over the 75 percent of the respondents mentioned that savings in time and effort and low financial costs of conducting mobile banking were advantageous. Issue of security was found to be the most important factor that motivated consumer adoption and attitude formation towards mobile banking. Main barriers to mobile banking were the lack of technological skills, the traditional cash‐carry banking culture, and the lack of awareness and insufficient guidance to using mobile banking.

Keywords: compatibility, complexity, mobile banking, observability, risk

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Authors: Priscilla Adoley Moffat

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One common element of African cultures is gender role socialization. This is a significant component of African cultures because gender roles are considered in these cultures, to define males and females and distinguish males from females. Various studies have established the impact of gender role socialization on individuals, on activities of individuals, including business activities, and on society, in general. This study further examined the effect of gender role socialization on the marketing of gendered products. The study sought to establish whether gender role socialization affects marketing, particularly word-of-mouth marketing, of gender-specific products. For a comprehensive examination of the influence of gender role socialization on word-of-mouth marketing of gendered products, 2150 respondents (1075 males and 1075 females), comprising 550 students of Marketing from various Ghanaian universities/colleges and 1600 other individuals (100 from each of the 16 regions of Ghana, representing the various cultures) were randomly sampled and interviewed. The study found that females are more willing to market male products than males when tasked to market female products. Also, females are more efficient in marketing male products than males in marketing female products. Again, most female audiences feel uncomfortable or embarrassed and are less receptive when approached by a male marketer of female products. Then, the study found that the fear of stigmatization is a major influencer of males’ negative attitude towards marketing of female products and that female marketers of male products, however, suffer less or no stigma. Aside from its addition to the literature on the impact of gender role socialization on marketing and, for that matter, the influence of socialization on marketing, the findings of the study are useful to multinational companies, which become better informed in their strategy when assigning marketing roles, especially in Africa.

Keywords: gender, socialization, marketing, gendered, role, Ghana

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Authors: Juliza Hidayati, Yesie M. Sinuhaji, Sawarni Hasibuan

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A company producing drinking water through many incompatibility issues that affect supply chain performance. The study was conducted to determine the factors that affect the performance of the supply chain and improve it. To obtain the dominant factors affecting the performance of the supply chain used Analytic Network Process, while to improve performance is done by using Kaizen. Factors affecting the performance of the supply chain to be a reference to identify the cause of the non-conformance. Results weighting using ANP indicates that the dominant factor affecting the level of performance is the precision of the number of shipments (15%), the ability of the fulfillment of the booking amount (12%), and the number of rejected products when signing (12%). Incompatibility of the factors that affect the performance of the supply chain are identified, so that found the root cause of the problem is most dominant. Based on the weight of Risk Priority Number (RPN) gained the most dominant root cause of the problem, namely the poorly maintained engine, the engine worked for three shifts, machine parts that are not contained in the plant. Improvements then performed using the Kaizen method of systematic and sustainable.

Keywords: analytic network process, booking amount, risk priority number, supply chain performance

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Authors: Rudainah Alkhazam, Özlem Yaşar Uğurlu

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Immigrant entrepreneurship arises from the start of entrepreneurial activity by immigrants in the country they relocate to. The future prosperity and stability of the refugee-hosting countries depends on the mutual social and economic benefits between the residents and the refugees. Syrian refugees and workers in host countries necessitate efforts to assist their residents and refugees in meeting their daily needs, contributing lawfully to local and possibly regional economies through trade, and instilling hope in their future. This study investigates the effects of Syrian refugee entrepreneurs on host communities' business sectors, focusing on Turkey. Specifically, we examine entrepreneurship in general and its role in the country's economy. Because Turkey is the most popular resettlement destination for Syrian refugees, this study will shed light on the challenges of successful migrant entrepreneurship in Turkey and their role in the business sector. The research relies on a mixed-method approach which helps identify recurring themes, favorable results, and conflicting results across methods, allowing us to draw accurate conclusions. The study will adopt a quantitative method in collecting numerical data from Syrian refugees in Turkey. The self-administered survey would be translated into Arabic to ensure that the respondents understood the questions and possible replies. The research will use survey questionnaires to gather the majority of the data. These surveys would have closed-ended questions with nominal ratio and Likert scales. The data will be analyzed using linear regression and the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) to ascertain the role of Syrian entrepreneurs in the business sectors of Turkey. The research will use the findings to make future recommendations. Syrian entrepreneurs, among the migrant entrepreneurs, contribute to the labor market, the majority of whom are young people. This research noted the significant participation of Syrian immigrant women in the entrepreneurship sector. The previous experience of Syrians in the field of trade and running their own business plays a vital role in the success of their business in the host countries. The study shows that Syrian entrepreneurs could integrate effectively into the various Turkish business sectors and could rely on themselves, open and manage their projects, and market them in the Turkish market. Syrian entrepreneurs consider that the investment and labor laws, commercial arrangements, and facilities for obtaining financial resources in Turkey need to be more flexible and available to immigrant entrepreneurs.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, immigration, Syrian, Turkey, refugees, investors, socio-economic benefits, unemployment

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Authors: Olivier Mesly

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This article examines the likelihood of deception on the part of borrowers wishing to obtain credit from institutional or private lenders. In our first study, we identify five explanatory variables that account for nearly forty percent of the propensity to act deceitfully: a poor credit history, debt, risky behavior, and to a much lesser degree, irrational behavior and disconnection from the bundle of needs, goals, and preferences. For the second study, we remodeled the initial questionnaire to adapt it to the needs of institutional bankers and borrowers, especially those that engage in money on-line peer-to-peer lending, a growing business fueled by the COVID pandemic. We find that the three key psychological variables that help to indirectly predict the likelihood of deceitful behaviors and possible default on loan reimbursement, i.e., risky behaviors, ir-rationality, and dis-connection, interact with each other to form a loop. This study presents two benefits: first, we provide evidence that it is to some degree possible to tighten control over lending practices. Second, we offer a pragmatic tool: a questionnaire, that lenders can use or adapt to gauge potential borrowers’ deceit, notably by combining their results with standard hard-data measures of risk.

Keywords: bundle of needs, default, debt, deception, risk, peer-to-peer lending

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Authors: Susanne Shunnaq

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During the past decade, an increasing number of higher education institutions in Oman have sought accreditation in an attempt to assure the quality of their programs. Sultan Qaboos University (SQU), the only public university in the country, has also been seeking accreditation. Hence, the university administration has been encouraging departments to evaluate their programs for development purposes. The Department of English, where 100% of the students are learners of English as a foreign language, already produced a self-study report that outlined the strength and weaknesses of the current program. The department came to the realization that due to a changing local and regional job market, transferrable communication skills are high in demand among stakeholders in the public and private sectors. Failure to equip English literature students, for example, with excellent verbal communicative skills in English may have detrimental effects for undergraduate job-seekers who have to compete for jobs in employment sectors with a predominantly English-speaking workforce. Ongoing extensive discussions about restructuring the current literature program by means of partially replacing literature courses with skills courses, hoping to produce higher quality graduates who are equipped with effective communication skills for local and regional markets, have sparked the idea for this research. The researcher, who is an American Literature specialist at SQU, has set out to investigate to what extent senior American literature students have been able to apply transferable communication skills in an advanced literature course. The study also attempts to unearth performance inhibitors and causes for communication breakdown. The primary data source for the study were audio-recordings of 6 in-class peer-group discussions in an advanced contemporary American literature course during the academic year 2016/2017. The significance of this research lies in the rarity of studies focusing on verbal communication skills in Omani higher education literature classrooms at a time when English programs are in the process of being re-visited and revamped both for accreditation purposes and for meeting job-market demands. The results showed a considerable variation in Omani students' verbal communicative abilities and English proficiency levels. The study also raises crucial questions and provides important recommendations for administrators and teachers alike who are in the process of restructuring English programs in the region and in non-English speaking countries worldwide.

Keywords: job-market, literature, Oman, tertiary education, oral communication skills

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Authors: Redie Bezabih Hailu

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Unemployment is a problem of nations that needs a continuous research. This study aimed to determine the collaborations and challenges of public employment service (PES) with special emphasis of stakeholders, employers and job seekers. The researcher used pragmatic philosophy, exploratory design and inductive approach to collect data from the respondents using interview and focused group discussion techniques. PES provides job market information, vocational counseling, and training. As PES is not fully furnished with man power, budget, modern technologies, it is providing less adequate services to the employers and job seekers. Matching job seekers with job vacancies is the major challenge for the center and using paper-based data management system too. There is also a number of job seekers in spite of very limited number of vacancies that the service provision is poor due to the fact that there is low level of vacancies and high level of job seekers. The center has collaboration with AFE, AYA, BoTVED, BoWCY, and CETU. The major challenges with this collaborations was the absence of operational guidelines to evaluate effectiveness and performance, lottery method of selecting candidates for vacancies and nepotism or favoritism were challenges for job seekers. On the other hand, (COVID-19) pandemic, inability to get skilled labor, absence of standardized payment, expectation of job seekers and less educational quality and mass graduation were another challenges for employment services. The study recommended quality education and training, operational guideline for collaboration, technology based labor market information system and suggested further studies on quality of PES.

Keywords: public employment service, collaborations, stakeholders, employers, job seekers

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Authors: Riyadh Alsultani, Ali Majdi

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It is necessary to develop a design methodology that includes the possibility of seismic events occurring in a region, the vulnerability of the civil hydraulic structure, and the effects of the occurrence hazard on society, environment, and economy in order to evaluate the flood and earthquake risks of coastal bridge networks. This paper presents a design approach for the assessment of the risk and sustainability of coastal bridge networks under time-variant flood-earthquake conditions. The social, environmental, and economic indicators of the network are used to measure its sustainability. These consist of anticipated loss, downtime, energy waste, and carbon dioxide emissions. The design process takes into account the possibility of happening in a set of flood and earthquake scenarios that represent the local seismic activity. Based on the performance of each bridge as determined by fragility assessments, network linkages are measured. The network's connections and bridges' damage statuses after an earthquake scenario determine the network's sustainability and danger. The sustainability measures' temporal volatility and the danger of structural degradation are both highlighted. The method is shown using a transportation network in Baghdad, Iraq.

Keywords: sustainability, Coastal bridge networks, flood-earthquake risk, structural design

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