Search results for: significant environmental aspects

Authors: Linda Richter

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Background and Significance: The influence of parents on their children’s attitudes and behaviors is immense, even as children grow out of what one might assume to be their most impressionable years and into teenagers. This study specifically examines the potential that parents have to prevent or reduce the risk of adolescent substance use, even in the face of considerable environmental influences to use nicotine, alcohol, or drugs. Methodology: The findings presented are based on a nationally representative survey of 1,014 teens aged 12-17 living in the United States. Data were collected using an online platform in early 2018. About half the sample was female (51%), 49% was aged 12-14, and 51% was aged 15-17. The margin of error was +/- 3.5%. Demographic data on the teens and their families were available through the survey platform. Survey items explored adolescent respondents’ exposure to addictive substances; the extent to which their sources of information about these substances are reliable or credible; friends’ and peers’ substance use; their own intentions to try substances in the future; and their relationship with their parents. Key Findings: Exposure to nicotine, alcohol, or other drugs and misinformation about these substances were associated with a greater likelihood that adolescents have friends who use drugs and that they have intentions to try substances in the future, which are known to directly predict actual teen substance use. In addition, teens who reported a positive relationship with their parents and having parents who are involved in their lives had a lower likelihood of having friends who use drugs and of having intentions to try substances in the future. This relationship appears to be mediated by parents’ ability to reduce the extent to which their children are exposed to substances in their environment and to misinformation about them. Indeed, the findings indicated that teens who reported a good relationship with their parents and those who reported higher levels of parental monitoring had significantly higher odds of reporting a lower number of risk factors than teens with a less positive relationship with parents or less monitoring. There also were significantly greater risk factors associated with substance use among older teens relative to younger teens. This shift appears to coincide directly with the tendency of parents to pull back in their monitoring and their involvement in their adolescent children’s lives. Conclusion: The survey findings underscore the importance of resisting the urge to completely pull back as teens age and demand more independence since that is exactly when the risks for teen substance use spike and young people need their parents and other trusted adults to be involved more than ever. Particularly through the cultivation of a healthy, positive, and open relationship, parents can help teens receive accurate and credible information about substance use and also monitor their whereabouts and exposure to addictive substances. These findings, which come directly from teens themselves, demonstrate the importance of continued parental engagement throughout children’s lives, regardless of their age and the disincentives to remaining involved and connected.

Keywords: adolescent, parental monitoring, prevention, substance use

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Cristina Diaz, Lucia Perez-Gandarillas, Gonzalo Garcia-Fuentes, Simone Visigalli, Roberto Canziani, Giuseppe Di Florio, Paolo Gronchi

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During their lifetime, industrial machines are often subjected to chemical, mechanical and thermal extreme conditions. In some cases, the loss of efficiency comes from the degradation of the surface as a result of its exposition to abrasive environments that can cause wear. This is a common problem to be solved in industries of diverse nature such as food, paper or concrete industries, among others. For this reason, a good selection of the material is of high importance. In the machine design context, stainless steels such as AISI 304 and 316 are widely used. However, the severity of the external conditions can require additional protection for the steel and sometimes coating solutions are demanded in order to extend the lifespan of these materials. Therefore, the development of effective coatings with high wear resistance is of utmost technological relevance. In this research, bilayer coatings made of Titanium-Tantalum, Titanium-Niobium, Titanium-Hafnium, and Titanium-Zirconium have been developed using magnetron sputtering configuration by PVD (Physical Vapor Deposition) technology. Their tribological behavior has been measured and evaluated under different environmental conditions. Two kinds of steels were used as substrates: AISI 304, AISI 316. For the comparison with these materials, titanium alloy substrate was also employed. Regarding the characterization, wear rate and friction coefficient were evaluated by a tribo-tester, using a pin-on-ball configuration with different lubricants such as tomato sauce, wine, olive oil, wet compost, a mix of sand and concrete with water and NaCl to approximate the results to real extreme conditions. In addition, topographical images of the wear tracks were obtained in order to get more insight of the wear behavior and scanning electron microscope (SEM) images were taken to evaluate the adhesion and quality of the coating. The characterization was completed with the measurement of nanoindentation hardness and elastic modulus. Concerning the results, thicknesses of the samples varied from 100 nm (Ti-Zr layer) to 1.4 µm (Ti-Hf layer) and SEM images confirmed that the addition of the Ti layer improved the adhesion of the coatings. Moreover, results have pointed out that these coatings have increased the wear resistance in comparison with the original substrates under environments of different severity. Furthermore, nanoindentation hardness results showed an improvement of the elastic strain to failure and a high modulus of elasticity (approximately 200 GPa). As a conclusion, Ti-Ta, Ti-Zr, Ti-Nb, and Ti-Hf are very promising and effective coatings in terms of tribological behavior, improving considerably the wear resistance and friction coefficient of typically used machine materials.

Keywords: coating, stainless steel, tribology, wear

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: N. Gelovani, D. Ismailov, S. Bochorishvili

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Religious minorities of Georgia include Muslims. Their composition is sufficiently miscellaneous, enclosing both ethnical viewpoint and belonging to the inner Islamic denomination. A majority of Muslims represent Azerbaijanis, who chiefly live in Kvemo Kartli (Bolnisi, Gardabani, Dmanisi, Tetri Tskaro, Marneuli and Tsalka). The catalyst for researchers of Islamic History is the geopolitical interests of Georgia, centuries-old contacts with the Islamic world, the not entirely trivial portion of Islam confessor population, the increasing influence of the Islamic factor in current religious-political processes in the world, the elevating procedure of Muslim religious self-consciousness in the Post-Soviet states, significant challenges of international terrorism, and perspectives of rapid globalization. The rise in the level of religious identity of Muslim citizens of Georgia (first of all of those who are not ethnic Georgians) is noticeable. New mosques have been constructed and, sometimes, even young people are being sent to the religious educational institutions of Muslim countries to gain a higher Islamic education. At a time when gender studies are substantive, the goal of which is to eliminate gender-based discrimination and violence in societies, it is essential in Georgia to conduct researches around the concrete problem – Islamic tradition, woman and education in Georgia. A woman’s right to education is an important indicator of women’s general status in a society. The appropriate resources, innovative analysis of Georgian ethnological materials, and surveying of the population (quantitative and qualitative research reports, working papers), condition the success of these researches. In the presented work, interrelation matters of Islam, gender and education in contemporary Georgia by the example of the Azerbaijani population in Kvemo Kartli during period 1992-2016 are studied. We researched the history of Muslim religious education centers in Tbilisi and Kvemo Kartli (Bolnisi, Gardabani, Dmanisi, Tetri Tskaro, Marneuli and Tsalka) in 1992-2016, on the one hand, and the results of sociological interrogation, on the other. As a result of our investigation, we found that Azeri women in the Kvemo Kartli (Georgia) region mostly receive their education in Georgia and Azerbaijan. Educational and Cultural Institutions are inaccessible for most Azeri women. The main reasons are the absence of educational and religious institutions at their places of residence and state policies towards Georgia’s Muslims. 

Keywords: Islam, gender, Georgia, education

Procedia PDF Downloads 225

Authors: Mohammed El Raey, Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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The spatial-ecological modeling is relating sustainable dispersions with social development. Sustainability with spatial-ecological model gives attention to urban environments in the design review management to comply with Earth’s System. Naturally exchange patterns of ecosystems have consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy flows and materials in Earth’s System. The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technique is utilized to assess the safety of industrial complex. The other analytical approach is the Failure-Safe Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for critical components. The plant safety parameters are identified for engineering topology as employed in assessment safety of industrial ecology. In particular, the most severe accidental release of hazardous gaseous is postulated, analyzed and assessment in industrial region. The IAEA- safety assessment procedure is used to account the duration and rate of discharge of liquid chlorine. The ecological model of plume dispersion width and concentration of chlorine gas in the downwind direction is determined using Gaussian Plume Model in urban and ruler areas and presented with SURFER®. The prediction of accident consequences is traced in risk contour concentration lines. The local greenhouse effect is predicted with relevant conclusions. The spatial-ecological model is also predicted the distribution schemes from the perspective of pollutants that considered multiple factors of multi-criteria analysis. The data extends input–output analysis to evaluate the spillover effect, and conducted Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis. Their unique structure is balanced within “equilibrium patterns”, such as the biosphere and collective a composite index of many distributed feedback flows. These dynamic structures are related to have their physical and chemical properties and enable a gradual and prolonged incremental pattern. While this spatial model structure argues from ecology, resource savings, static load design, financial and other pragmatic reasons, the outcomes are not decisive in artistic/ architectural perspective. The hypothesis is an attempt to unify analytic and analogical spatial structure for development urban environments using optimization software and applied as an example of integrated industrial structure where the process is based on engineering topology as optimization approach of systems ecology.

Keywords: spatial-ecological modeling, spatial structure orientation impact, composite structure, industrial ecology

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Authors: Tadesse Kebede, Orkun Baris Kovanci

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Tomatoes leaf minor (Tutaabasoluta) is one of the most economically important insect pest in tomatoes production. The use of biological control such as entomopathogen fungi isolates would be a long-term and cost-effective solution to control insects pest. Therefore, identifying the most virulent and pathogenic entomopathogen fungi is one of the basic requirements for effective management options to combat Tomatoes leaf minor (Tutaabasoluta). Furthermore, the pathogenicity and virulence difference among entomopathogenfungus strains is not widely well investıgated. The current study was therefore initiated to test the pathogenicity of some entomopathogenic fungus isolates against Tutaabsoluta. The experiment was conducted at Bursa Uludag University, Agiculutre faculty, horticulture department glasshouse in 2020/2021. Tutabasoluta adult were collected, and masslarvae were reared in a growth chamber. Then, ten third instar larvae were inoculated with four entomopathogen fungi isolates (Beuaveriabassania Ak-10, Beuaveriabassania Ak-14, Metarhziumanisoplai Ak-11, and Metarhziumanisoplai Ak-12) with different inoculum suspension (0, 1x10⁶, 1x10⁷,,4 × 10⁸, 4× 10⁹ and 1×10¹⁰ conidia /ml) in a factorial experiment arranged in randomized complete block design with three replication. Mortality data assessment was done on the 3rd, 5thand 7th days after treatment and analyzed. The analysis of variance for mortality rate revealed significant variations (p<0.05) among entomoptahogen fungi isolates and conidia concentrations. The results revealed thatMetarhziumanisoplai Ak-12was found to show the lowest mortality percentage80.77%, highest LC50 2.3x108, and the longest incubation period, LT50, 4.9 and LT90, 9.9daysand considered to be less pathogenic fungi. On the other hand, Beuaveriabassania Ak-10 isolate showed the highest mortality percentage, 91%, and the lowest LT50, 4, and LT90, 7.6 values at 1×10¹⁰ conidia /ml, followed by Beuaveriabassania Ak-14 and being considered as the most aggressive bio-agent. Metarhziumanisoplai Ak-11 was determined as moderately virulent, having a mortality rate 27-81%. Results also revealed that among conidia concentrations, 1x10⁹ and 1x10¹⁰ suspensions is the most effective, while 1x10⁶ conidia/ml concentration is the least effective. Hence, results indicated that EPF tested were effective against T. absoluta larvae. As the current work revealed the potential variation among entomopathogen fungi isolates and concentration against third instar larvae.

Keywords: tuta absoluta, tomato, metarhizium anisopliae, beauveria bassiana, biological control

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Authors: Abdul Ganiyu Iddrisu

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Digitization is the process of transforming analog material into digital form, especially for storage and use in a computer. Significant development of information and communication technology (ICT) over the past years has encouraged many researchers to investigate its contribution to promoting economic growth, and reducing poverty. Yet compelling empirical evidence on the effects of digitization on economic growth remains weak, particularly in Africa. This is because extant studies that explicitly evaluate digitization and economic growth nexus are mostly reports and desk reviews. This points out an empirical knowledge gap in the literature. Hypothetically, digitization influences financial sector development which in turn influences economic growth. Digitization has changed the financial sector and its operating environment. Obstacles to access to financing, for instance, physical distance, minimum balance requirements, low-income flows among others can be circumvented. Savings have increased, micro-savers have opened bank accounts, and banks are now able to price short-term loans. This has the potential to develop the financial sector, however, empirical evidence on digitization-financial development nexus is dearth. On the other hand, a number of studies maintained that financial sector development greatly influences growth of economies. We therefore argue that financial sector development is one of the transmission mechanisms through which digitization affects economic growth. Employing macro-country-level data from African countries and using fixed effects, random effects and Hausman-Taylor estimation approaches, this paper contributes to the literature by analysing economic growth in Africa focusing on the role of digitization, and financial sector development. First, we assess how digitization influence financial sector development in Africa. From an economic policy perspective, it is important to identify digitization determinants of financial sector development so that action can be taken to reduce the economic shocks associated with financial sector distortions. This nexus is rarely examined empirically in the literature. Secondly, we examine the effect of domestic credit to private sector and stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP as used to proxy for financial sector development on 2 economic growth. Digitization is represented by the volume of digital/ICT equipment imported and GDP growth is used to proxy economic growth. Finally, we examine the effect of digitization on economic growth in the light of financial sector development. The following key results were found; first, digitalization propels financial sector development in Africa. Second, financial sector development enhances economic growth. Finally, contrary to our expectation, the results also indicate that digitalization conditioned on financial sector development tends to reduce economic growth in Africa. However, results of the net effects suggest that digitalization, overall, improves economic growth in Africa. We, therefore, conclude that, digitalization in Africa does not only develop the financial sector but unconditionally contributes the growth of the continent’s economies.

Keywords: digitalization, economic growth, financial sector development, Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Suhair Mereish

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This research is aimed at examining the climate for innovation in organisations with the aim of validating the psychometric properties of the Team Climate Inventory (TCI -14) for Jordan’s collectivist society. The innovativeness of teams may be improved or obstructed by the climate within the team. Further, personal factors are considered an important element that influences the climate for innovation. Accordingly, measuring the employees' personality traits using the Big Five Inventory (BFI-44) could provide insights that aid in understanding how to improve innovation. Thus, studying the climate for innovation and its associations with personality traits is valuable, considering the insights it could offer on employee performance, job satisfaction, and well-being. Essentially, the Team Climate Inventory instrument has never been tested in Jordan’s collectivist society. Accordingly, in order to address the existing gap in the literature as a whole and, more specifically, in Jordan, it is essential to investigate its factorial structure and reliability in this particular context. It is also important to explore whether the factorial structure of the Team Climate Inventory in Jordan’s collectivist society demonstrates a similar or different structure to what has been found in individualistic ones. Lastly, examining if there are associations between the Team Climate Inventory and personality traits of Jordanian employees is pivotal. The quantitative study was carried out among Jordanian employees employed in two of the top 20 companies in Jordan, a shipping and logistics company (N=473) and a telecommunications company (N=219). To generalise the findings, this was followed by collecting data from the general population of this country (N=399). The participants completed the Team Climate Inventory. Confirmatory factor analyses and reliability tests were conducted to confirm the factorial structure, validity, and reliability of the inventory. Findings presented that the four-factor structure of the Team Climate Inventory in Jordan revealed a similar structure to the ones in Western culture. The four-factor structure has been confirmed with good fit indices and reliability values. Moreover, for climate for innovation, regression analysis identified agreeableness (positive) and neuroticism (negative) from the Big Five Inventory as significant predictors. This study will contribute to knowledge in several ways. First, by examining the reliability and factorial structure in a Jordanian collectivist context rather than a Western individualistic one. Second, by comparing the Team Climate Inventory structure in Jordan with findings for the Team Climate Inventory from Western individualistic societies. Third, by studying its relationships with personality traits in that country. Furthermore, findings from this study will assist practitioners in the field of organisational psychology and development to improve the climate for innovation for employees working in organisations in Jordan. It is also expected that the results of this research will provide recommendations to professionals in the business psychology sector regarding the characteristics of employees who hold positive and negative perceptions of the workplace climate.

Keywords: big five inventory, climate for innovation, collectivism, individualism, Jordan, team climate inventory

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Authors: Tasleem Zafar, Jiwan Sidhu

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Introduction: Chickpea flour is known to offer many benefits to diabetic persons, especially in maintaining their blood sugar levels in the acceptable range. Under this project we have studied the chemical composition and antioxidant capacity of white flour (WF), whole wheat flour (WWF) and chickpea flour (BF), in addition to the effect of replacement of WF and WWF with BF on the rheological characteristics of these flour blends, with the ultimate objective of producing acceptable quality flat as well as pan-bread for the diabetic consumers. Methods: WF and WWF were replaced with BF ranging from 0 to 40%, to investigate its effect on the rheological properties and functionality of blended flour dough using farinograph, viscoamylograph, mixograph and falling number apparatus as per the AACC standard methods. Texture Profile Analysis (TPA) was carried on the WF, WWF, and their blends with BF using Stable Micro System Texture Analyzer. Effect of certain additives, such as freeze-dried amla fruit powder (Phyllanthus emblica L.), guar gum, and xanthan gum on the dough rheological properties were also studied. Results: Freeze-dried amla fruit powder was found to be very rich in ascorbic acid and other phenolics having higher antioxidant activity. A decreased farinograph water absorption, increased dough development time, higher mixing tolerance index (i.e., weakening of dough), decreased resistance to extension, lower ratio numbers were obtained when the replacement with BF was increased from 0 to 40%. The BF gave lower peak viscosity, lower paste breakdown, and lower setback values when compared with WF. The falling number values were significantly lower in WWF (meaning higher α-amylase activity) than both the WF and BF. Texture Profile Analysis (TPA) carried on the WF, WWF, and their blends with BF showed significant variations in hardness and compressibility values, dough becoming less hard and less compressible when the replacement of WF and WWF with BF was increased from 0 to 40%. Conclusions: To overcome the deleterious effects of adding BF to WF and WWF on the rheological properties will be an interesting challenge when good quality pan bread and Arabic flatbread have to be commercially produced in a bakery. Use of freeze-dried amla fruit powder, guar gum, and xanthan gum did show some promise to improve the mixing characteristics of WF, WWF, and their blends with BF, and these additives are expected to be useful in producing an acceptable quality flat as well as pan-bread on a commercial scale.

Keywords: wheat flour, chickpea flour, amla fruit, rheology

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Yingyi Luo

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Cross-border surrogacy is seen by many as a market in which women are bought and sold commodities at risk of trafficking. A surrogate can be framed as either a fully acknowledged subject, with whom intended parents engage in cross-border surrogacy—or as a tool utilized by intended parents and surrogacy facilitators in the furtherance of their own objectives. In order to identify which frame prevails, this paper applies subjectivity theory to an empirical study of cross-border surrogacy facilitated by facilitators in Australia analysing interviews with surrogate agents, counsellors and lawyers, and observations at trade show. The aim of the paper is to advance understanding of the dynamics of the relationship between intended parents, surrogates, and surrogacy facilitators by collecting new data and applying unique framework. As dominant players, surrogacy facilitators have a significant impact on determining the nature of cross-border surrogacy. However, little is known concerning the manner in which facilitators influence the inter-subjectivity between surrogate mothers and intended parents. Thus, this paper intends to identify how facilitators depict surrogate mothers, the degree to which their perspectives bear upon both the subjectivity of the surrogate mother and the relationship of intended parents with surrogate mothers. For the purpose of introducing and developing this framework in the context of cross-border surrogacy, this paper borrows from the work of theorists not often mentioned in bioethics, including Jacques Lacan, Marco Cavallaro, Michel Foucault, and others. It also applies the concept of 'the gaze' along with the dynamic of 'self' and 'other' to the cross-border surrogacy arrangement. Applying the concept of the gaze can provide a new way to interpret the power dynamic that plays out among surrogacy facilitators, intended parents, and surrogates within the commercial surrogacy arrangement and how the subjectivity is produced through the power. Viewing the relationships between the players in cross-border surrogacy through the lens of gaze theory, this paper finds that, in cross-border surrogacy, due to the structural power imbalance, affluent intended parents and surrogacy facilitators are possessors of the gaze, while surrogate mothers are under the thrall of the gaze. Specifically, facilitators frame surrogate mothers' reproductive abilities as commodities that intended parents can purchase to fulfil their urgent need to have children and experience full subjectivity, and they take a cut of the money that paid by intended parents. Therefore, commodification of the body results in degrading a surrogate mother (the object), reifying her as no more than a walking womb (the other), a process which is highly detrimental to the self of surrogate mothers. This relationship, formalized through contractual means, allows intended parents and facilitators to take advantage of surrogate mothers in the furtherance of their own objectives. This argument is enriched by new data from interviews and observations that provide nuance to this understanding of inter-subjectivity.

Keywords: cross-border surrogacy, facilitators, self, surrogate mothers

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Angel Champion

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Chemotherapy and radiation use an acidified approach to induce apoptosis, which only kills mature cancer cells while resulting in gene and cell damage with significant levels of toxicity in tumor-affected tissues and organs. The acid approach, where the cells exterminated are not differentiated, induces the disappearance of white blood cells from the blood. This increases susceptibility to infection in severe forms of cancer spread. However, chemotherapy and radiation cannot kill cancer stem cells that metastasize, being the leading cause of 98% of cancer fatalities. With over 12 million new cancer cases symptomatic each year, including common malignancies such as Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC), this study aims to assess the bioactive constituents and phytochemical composition of Taraxacum Officinale (Dandelion). This analysis enables pharmaceutical quality and potency to be applied to studies on cancer cell proliferation and apoptosis. A phytochemical screening is carried out to identify the antioxidant components of Dandelion root, stem, and flower extract. The constituents tested for are phlorotannins, carbohydrates, glycosides, saponins, flavonoids, alkaloids, sterols, triterpenes, and anthraquinone glycosides. To conserve the existing phenolic compounds, a portion of the constituent tests will be examined with an acid, alcohol, or aqueous solvent. As a result, the qualitative and quantitative variations within the Dandelion extract that measure uniform effective potency are vital to the conformity for producing medicinal products. These medicines will be constructed with a consistent, uniform composition that physicians can use to control and effectively eradicate malignant diseases safely. Taraxacum Officinale's phytochemical composition comprises a highly-graded potency due to present bioactive contents that will essentially drive out malignant disease within the human body. Its high potency rate is powerful enough to eliminate both mature cancer cells and cancer stem cells without the cell and gene damage induced by chemotherapy and radiation. Correspondingly, the high margins of cancer mortality on a global scale are mitigated. This remarkable contribution to modern therapeutics will essentially optimize the margins of natural products and their derivatives, which account for 50% of pharmaceuticals in modern therapeutics, while preventing the adverse effects of radiation and chemotherapy drugs.

Keywords: antioxidant, apoptosis, metastasize, phytochemical, proliferation, potency

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Jill Stephenson, Marie Vaganay, Robert Cameron, Caoimhe McGurk, Neil Hewitt

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Purpose: The key aim of the research was to identify the secondary stressors experienced by businesses affected by single or repeated flooding and to determine to what extent businesses were affected by these stressors, along with any resulting impact on health. Additionally, the research aimed to establish the likelihood of businesses being re-exposed to the secondary stressors through assessing awareness of flood risk, implementation of property protection measures and level of community resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The chosen research method involved the distribution of a questionnaire survey to businesses affected by either single or repeated flood events. The questionnaire included the Impact of Event Scale (a 15-item self-report measure which assesses subjective distress caused by traumatic events). Findings: 55 completed questionnaires were returned by flood impacted businesses. 89% of the businesses had sustained internal flooding while 11% had experienced external flooding. The results established that the key secondary stressors experienced by businesses, in order of priority, were: flood damage, fear of reoccurring flooding, prevention of access to the premise/closure, loss of income, repair works, length of closure and insurance issues. There was a lack of preparedness for potential future floods and consequent vulnerability to the emergence of secondary stressors among flood affected businesses, as flood resistance or flood resilience measures had only been implemented by 11% and 13% respectively. In relation to the psychological repercussions, the Impact of Event scores suggested that potential prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was noted among 8 out of 55 respondents (l5%). Originality/value: The results improve understanding of the enduring repercussions of flood events on businesses, indicating that not only residents may be susceptible to the detrimental health impacts of flood events and single flood events may be just as likely as reoccurring flooding to contribute to ongoing stress. Lack of financial resources is a possible explanation for the lack of implementation of property protection measures among businesses, despite 49% experiencing flooding on multiple occasions. Therefore it is recommended that policymakers should consider potential sources of financial support or grants towards flood defences for flood impacted businesses. Any form of assistance should be made available to businesses at the earliest opportunity as there was no significant association between the time of the last flood event and the likelihood of experiencing PTSD symptoms.

Keywords: flood event, flood resilience, flood resistance, PTSD, secondary stressors

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Authors: Sunaina Sunaina

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The emergence of Thailand as a modern nation was amalgamation of several minority groups. Eventually, the nation tried to mitigate these diversities in the name of nationalism in the backdrop of colonial powers presence in neighboring nations. However, the continued imposition of modern nation building processes (which is a western concept) in the post-colonial era deepen the feelings of alienation among the minority groups and leads to separatist conflicts. It is significant that whatever form these conflicts take, will impact the security of nation as well as the region of Southeast Asia. This paper tries to explore the possible factors behind the state policies adopted by the government of Thailand to manage the insurgency in Southern provinces in the south. The protracted insurgency in the South has historical roots as Pattani kingdom had glorious period whether it was trade or commerce or education and its assimilation was never accepted by the leaders of these areas. But after assimilation of southern provinces in the state, it has been the state policy as an important factor in promoting or mitigating the insurgency. Initial protests from the elite class of southern provinces inflated into a more organized and violent uprising after Second World War. It was only the decade of 1990s that a relative peace could prevail for some time. The violence reemerged in 2004 with more intensity and till today this area is suffering with violence. Period of different Prime Ministers dealt this insurgency in different ways sometimes very hard line approach had been adopted especially under Primeminstership of Thaksin Shinawatra. Recently, the peace talks which were started during the period of Yinglunck Shinawatra and were carried forward by Junta government also halted. And again, the region stays in a very volatile state. Violence in these provinces not only questions the capability of government to provide political solution to the problem, but also emerges as a major threat to the internal security of the state. The current era where global terrorism is spreading fast, such vulnerable areas may work as a new ground for its proliferation in Southeast Asia. The paper attempts to understand how Thailand’s historical experience of security determines a different approach to national unity which limits the prospects for autonomy in the South. In conjunction with this experience it is nature of national politics and leadership that influences the nature of policies on the ground in Southern Thailand. The paper also tries to bring out conflict between state sovereignty and self-determination as demanded by many in the southern provinces.

Keywords: insurgency, southern Thailand, security, nation building

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Golnush Masghati-Amoli, Paul Chin

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Over the past recent years, with the rapid increases in data availability and computing power, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been called on in a range of different industries for their strong predictive capability. However, the use of Machine Learning in commercial banking has been limited due to a special challenge imposed by numerous regulations that require lenders to be able to explain their analytic models, not only to regulators but often to consumers. In other words, although Machine Leaning techniques enable better prediction with a higher level of accuracy, in comparison with other industries, they are adopted less frequently in commercial banking especially for scoring purposes. This is due to the fact that Machine Learning techniques are often considered as a black box and fail to provide information on why a certain risk score is given to a customer. In order to bridge this gap between the explain-ability and performance of Machine Learning techniques, a Hybrid Model is developed at Dun and Bradstreet that is focused on blending Machine Learning algorithms with traditional approaches such as scorecards. The Hybrid Model maximizes efficiency of traditional scorecards by merging its practical benefits, such as explain-ability and the ability to input domain knowledge, with the deep insights of Machine Learning techniques which can uncover patterns scorecard approaches cannot. First, through development of Machine Learning models, engineered features and latent variables and feature interactions that demonstrate high information value in the prediction of customer risk are identified. Then, these features are employed to introduce observed non-linear relationships between the explanatory and dependent variables into traditional scorecards. Moreover, instead of directly computing the Weight of Evidence (WoE) from good and bad data points, the Hybrid Model tries to match the score distribution generated by a Machine Learning algorithm, which ends up providing an estimate of the WoE for each bin. This capability helps to build powerful scorecards with sparse cases that cannot be achieved with traditional approaches. The proposed Hybrid Model is tested on different portfolios where a significant gap is observed between the performance of traditional scorecards and Machine Learning models. The result of analysis shows that Hybrid Model can improve the performance of traditional scorecards by introducing non-linear relationships between explanatory and target variables from Machine Learning models into traditional scorecards. Also, it is observed that in some scenarios the Hybrid Model can be almost as predictive as the Machine Learning techniques while being as transparent as traditional scorecards. Therefore, it is concluded that, with the use of Hybrid Model, Machine Learning algorithms can be used in the commercial banking industry without being concerned with difficulties in explaining the models for regulatory purposes.

Keywords: machine learning algorithms, scorecard, commercial banking, consumer risk, feature engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Lucas Peries, Rolla Monib

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The construction industry plays a vital role in the global economy, contributing billions of dollars annually. However, the industry has been struggling with persistently low productivity levels for years, unlike other sectors that have shown significant improvements. Modular and prefabricated construction methods have been identified as potential solutions to boost productivity in the construction industry. These methods offer time advantages over traditional construction methods. Despite their potential benefits, modular and prefabricated construction face hindrances and limitations that are not present in traditional building systems. Building information modelling (BIM) has the potential to address some of these hindrances, but barriers are preventing its widespread adoption in the construction industry. This research aims to enhance understanding of the shortcomings of modular and prefabricated building systems and develop BIM-based solutions to alleviate or eliminate these hindrances. The research objectives include identifying and analysing key issues hindering the use of modular and prefabricated building systems, investigating the current state of BIM adoption in the construction industry and factors affecting its successful implementation, proposing BIM-based solutions to address the issues associated with modular and prefabricated building systems, and assessing the effectiveness of the developed solutions in removing barriers to their use. The research methodology involves conducting a critical literature review to identify the key issues and challenges in modular and prefabricated construction and BIM adoption. Additionally, an online questionnaire will be used to collect primary data from construction industry professionals, allowing for feedback and evaluation of the proposed BIM-based solutions. The data collected will be analysed to evaluate the effectiveness of the solutions and their potential impact on the adoption of modular and prefabricated building systems. The main findings of the research indicate that the identified issues from the literature review align with the opinions of industry professionals, and the proposed BIM-based solutions are considered effective in addressing the challenges associated with modular and prefabricated construction. However, the research has limitations, such as a small sample size and the need to assess the feasibility of implementing the proposed solutions. In conclusion, this research contributes to enhancing the understanding of modular and prefabricated building systems' limitations and proposes BIM-based solutions to overcome these limitations. The findings are valuable to construction industry professionals and BIM software developers, providing insights into the challenges and potential solutions for implementing modular and prefabricated construction systems in future projects. Further research should focus on addressing the limitations and assessing the feasibility of implementing the proposed solutions from technical and legal perspectives.

Keywords: building information modelling, modularisation, prefabrication, technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Sevinj Asgarova

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Within the last few decades, major advances in the field of prenatal testing have transpired yet little research regarding the experiences of mothers who chose to continue their pregnancies after prenatally receiving a diagnosis of Down Syndrome (DS) has been undertaken. Using social constructionism and interpretive description, this retrospective research study explores this topic from the point of view of the mothers involved and provides insight as to how the experience could be improved. Using purposive sampling, 23 mothers were recruited from British Columbia (n=11) and Ontario (n=12) in Canada. Data retrieved through semi-structured in-depth interviews were analyzed using inductive, constant comparative analysis, the major analytical techniques of interpretive description. Four primary phases emerged from the data analysis 1) healthcare professional-mothers communications, 2) initial emotional response, 3) subsequent decision-making and 4) an adjustment and reorganization of lifestyle to the preparation for the birth of the child. This study validates the individualized and contextualized nature of mothers’ decisions as influenced by multiple factors, with moral values/spiritual beliefs being significant. The mothers’ ability to cope was affected by the information communicated to them about their unborn baby’s diagnosis and the manner in which that information was delivered to them. Mothers used emotional coping strategies, dependent upon support from partners, family, and friends, as well as from other families who have children with DS. Additionally, they employed practical coping strategies, such as engaging in healthcare planning, seeking relevant information, and reimagining and reorganizing their lifestyle. Over time many families gained a sense of control over their situation and readjusted to the preparation for the birth of the child. Many mothers expressed the importance of maintaining positivity and hopefulness with respect to positive outcomes and opportunities for their children. The comprehensive information generated through this study will also provide healthcare professionals with relevant information to assist them in understanding the informational and emotional needs of these mothers. This should lead to an improvement in their practice and enhance their ability to intervene appropriately and effectively, better offering improved support to parents dealing with a diagnosis of DS for their child.

Keywords: continuing affected pregnancy, decision making, disability, down syndrome, eugenic social attitudes, inequalities, life change events, prenatal care, prenatal testing, qualitative research, social change, social justice

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Sedigheh Kalantari

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Like many countries in the arid and semi-arid belt, Iran experiences a natural limitation in the availability of water resources. However, rapid socioeconomic development has created a serious water crisis in a nation that was once one of the world’s pioneers in sustainable water management, due to the Persians’ contribution to hydraulic engineering inventions – the Qanat – throughout history. The exogenous issues like the changing climate, frequent droughts, and international sanctions are only crisis catalyzers, not the main cause of the water crisis; and a resilient water management system is expected to be capable of coping with these periodic external pressures. The current dramatic water security issues in Iran are rooted in managerial, political, and institutional challenges rather than engineering and technical issues, and the country is suffering from challenges in water governance. The country, instead of rigorous water conservation efforts, is still focused on supply-driven approach, technology and centralized methods, and structural solutions that aim to increase water supply; while the effectiveness of water governance and management has often left unused. To solve these issues, it is necessary to assess the present situation and its evolution over time. In this respect, establishing water governance assessment mechanisms will be a significant aspect of this paper. The research framework, however, is a conceptual framework to assess governance performance of Iran to critically diagnose problematic issues and areas, as well as proffer empirically based solutions and determine the best possible steps towards transformational processes. This concept aims to measure the adequacy of current solutions and strategies designed to ameliorate these problems and then develop and prescribe adequate futuristic solutions. Thus, the analytical framework developed in this paper seeks to provide insights on key factors influencing water governance in Iranian cities, institutional frameworks to manage water across scales and authorities, multi-level management gaps and policy responses, through an evidence-based approach and good practices to drive reform toward sustainability and water resource conservation. The findings of this paper show that the current structure of the water governance system in Iran, coupled with the lack of a comprehensive understanding of the root causes of the problem, leaves minimal hope for developing sustainable solutions to Iran’s increasing water crisis. In order to follow sustainable development approaches, Iran needs to replace symptom management with problem prevention.

Keywords: governance, Iran, sustainable development, water management, water resources

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Authors: Moien Mojabi, Aurelien Hospital, Daniel Potts, Chris Young, Albert Leung

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The wave analysis is an integral part of the hydrotechnical assessment carried out during the permitting and design phases for coastal structures, such as marinas. This analysis aims in quantifying: i) the Suitability of the coastal structure design against Small Craft Harbour wave tranquility safety criterion; ii) Potential environmental impacts of the structure (e.g., effect on wave, flow, and sediment transport); iii) Mooring and dock design and iv) Requirements set by regulatory agency’s (e.g., WSA section 11 application). While a complex three-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling approach can be applied on large-scale projects, the need for an efficient and reliable wave analysis method suitable for smaller scale marina projects was identified. As a result, Tetra Tech has developed and applied an integrated analysis framework (hereafter TT approach), which takes the advantage of the state-of-the-art numerical models while preserving the level of simplicity that fits smaller scale projects. The present paper aims to describe the TT approach and highlight the key advantages of using this integrated framework in lake marina projects. The core of this methodology is made by integrating wind, water level, bathymetry, and structure geometry data. To respond to the needs of specific projects, several add-on modules have been added to the core of the TT approach. The main advantages of this method over the simplified analytical approaches are i) Accounting for the proper physics of the lake through the modelling of the entire lake (capturing real lake geometry) instead of a simplified fetch approach; ii) Providing a more realistic representation of the waves by modelling random waves instead of monochromatic waves; iii) Modelling wave-structure interaction (e.g. wave transmission/reflection application for floating structures and piles amongst others); iv) Accounting for wave interaction with the lakebed (e.g. bottom friction, refraction, and breaking); v) Providing the inputs for flow and sediment transport assessment at the project site; vi) Taking in consideration historical and geographical variations of the wind field; and vii) Independence of the scale of the reservoir under study. Overall, in comparison with simplified analytical approaches, this integrated framework provides a more realistic and reliable estimation of wave parameters (and its spatial distribution) in lake marinas, leading to a realistic hydrotechnical assessment accessible to any project size, from the development of a new marina to marina expansion and pile replacement. Tetra Tech has successfully utilized this approach since many years in the Okanagan area.

Keywords: wave modelling, wind-wave, extreme value analysis, marina

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Authors: T. Hamaishi, Y. Morinaga, H. Morita

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Introduction: Rice consumption in Japan has decreased, and Japanese government has recommended use of rice flour in order to expand the consumption of rice. There are two major protein components present in flour, called gliadin and glutenin. Gluten forms when water is added to flour and is mixed. As mixing continues, glutenin interacts with gliadin to form viscoelastic matrix of gluten. Rice flour bread does not expand as much as wheat flour bread. Because rice flour is not included gluten, it cannot construct gluten network in the dough. In recent years, some food additives have been used for dough-improving agent in bread making, especially surfactants has effect in order to improve dough extensibility. Therefore, we focused to fatty acid salt which is one of anionic surfactants. Fatty acid salt is a salt consist of fatty acid and alkali, it is main components of soap. According to JECFA(FAO/WHO Joint Expert Committee on Food Additives), salts of Myristic(C14), Palmitic(C16) and Stearic(C18) could be used as food additive. They have been evaluated ADI was not specified. In this study, we investigated to improving bread-making properties of rice flour dough adding fatty acid salt. Materials and methods: The sample of fatty acid salt is myristic (C14) dissolved in KOH solution to a concentration of 350 mM and pH 10.5. Rice dough was consisted of 100 g of flour using rice flour and wheat gluten, 5 g of sugar, 1.7 g of salt, 1.7g of dry yeast, 80 mL of water and fatty acid salt. Mixing was performed for 500 times by using hand. The concentration of C14K in the dough was 10 % relative to flour weight. Amount of gluten in the dough was 20 %, 30 % relative to flour weight. Dough expansion ability test was performed to measure physical property of bread dough according to the methods of Baker’s Yeast by Japan Yeast Industry Association. In this test, 150 g of dough was filled from bottom of the cylinder and fermented at 30 °C，85 % humidity for 120 min on an incubator. The height of the expansion in the dough was measured and determined its expansion ability. Results and Conclusion: Expansion ability of rice dough with gluten content of 20 %, 30% showed 316 mL, 341 mL for 120 min. When C14K adding to the rice dough, dough expansion abilities were 314 mL, 368 mL for 120 min, there was no significant difference. Conventionally it has been known that the rice flour dough contain gluten of 20 %. The considerable improvement of dough expansion ability was achieved when added C14K to wheat flour. The experimental result shows that c14k adding to the rice dough with gluten content more than 20 % was not improving bread-making properties. In conclusion, rice bread made with gluten content more than 20 % without C14K has been suggested to contribute to the formation of the sufficient gluten network.

Keywords: expansion ability, fatty acid salt, gluten, rice flour dough

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Bill D. Geis

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Even with significantly increased spending, suicide rates continue to climb—with alarming increases among traditionally low-risk groups. This has caused clinicians and researchers to call for a complete rethinking of all assumptions about suicide prevention, assessment, and intervention. A form of therapy--Internal Family Systems Therapy--affords tremendous promise in sustained diminishment of lethal suicide risk. Though a form of therapy that is most familiar to trauma therapists, Internal Family Systems Therapy, involving direct work with suicidal parts, is a promising therapy for meaningful and sustained reduction in suicide deaths. Developed by Richard Schwartz, Internal Family Systems Therapy proposes that we are all influenced greatly by internal parts, frozen by development adversities, and these often-contradictory parts contribute invisibly to mood, distress, and behavior. In making research videos of patients from our database and discussing their suicide attempts, it is clear that many persons who attempt suicide are in altered states at the time of their attempt and influenced by factors other than conscious intent. Suicide intervention using this therapy involves direct work with suicidal parts and other interacting parts that generate distress and despair. Internal Family Systems theory posits that deep experiences of pain, fear, aloneness, and distress are defended by a range of different parts that attempt to contain these experiences of pain through various internal activities that unwittingly push forward inhibition, fear, self-doubt, hopelessness, desires to cut and engage in destructive behavior, addictive behavior, and even suicidal actions. These suicidal parts are often created (and “frozen”) at young ages, and these very young parts do not understand the consequences of this influence. Experience suggests that suicidal parts can create impulsive risk behind the scenes when pain is high and emotional support reduced—with significant crisis potential. This understanding of latent suicide risk is consistent with many of our video accounts of serious suicidal acts—compiled in a database of 1104 subjects. Since 2016, consent has been obtained and records kept of 23 highly suicidal patients, with initial Intention-to-Die ratings (0= no intent, 10 = conviction to die) between 5 and 10. In 67% of these cases using IFST parts-work intervention, these highly suicidal patients’ risk was reduced to 0-1, and 83% of cases were reduced to 4 or lower. There were no suicide deaths. Case illustrations will be offered.

Keywords: suicide, internal family systems therapy, crisis management, suicide prevention

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Authors: Ahmed Elaksher

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Over the last few years, significant progresses have been made and new approaches have been proposed for efficient collection of 3D spatial data from Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with reduced costs compared to imagery from satellite or manned aircraft. In these systems, a low-cost GPS unit provides the position, velocity of the vehicle, a low-quality inertial measurement unit (IMU) determines its orientation, and off-the-shelf cameras capture the images. Structure from Motion (SfM) and photogrammetry are the main tools for 3D surface reconstruction from images collected by these systems. Unlike traditional techniques, SfM allows the computation of calibration parameters using point correspondences across images without performing a rigorous laboratory or field calibration process and it is more flexible in that it does not require consistent image overlap or same rotation angles between successive photos. These benefits make SfM ideal for UAVs aerial mapping. In this paper, a direct comparison between SfM Digital Elevation Models (DEM) and those generated through traditional photogrammetric techniques was performed. Data was collected by a 3DR IRIS+ Quadcopter with a Canon PowerShot S100 digital camera. Twenty ground control points were randomly distributed on the ground and surveyed with a total station in a local coordinate system. Images were collected from an altitude of 30 meters with a ground resolution of nine mm/pixel. Data was processed with PhotoScan, VisualSFM, Imagine Photogrammetry, and a photogrammetric algorithm developed by the author. The algorithm starts with performing a laboratory camera calibration then the acquired imagery undergoes an orientation procedure to determine the cameras’ positions and orientations. After the orientation is attained, correlation based image matching is conducted to automatically generate three-dimensional surface models followed by a refining step using sub-pixel image information for high matching accuracy. Tests with different number and configurations of the control points were conducted. Camera calibration parameters estimated from commercial software and those obtained with laboratory procedures were comparable. Exposure station positions were within less than few centimeters and insignificant differences, within less than three seconds, among orientation angles were found. DEM differencing was performed between generated DEMs and few centimeters vertical shifts were found.

Keywords: UAV, photogrammetry, SfM, DEM

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Purnima Dhall, Rita Kumar

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Introduction: River Yamuna, in the national capital territory (NCT), and also the primary source of drinking water for the city. Delhi discharges about 3,684 MLD of sewage through its 18 drains in to the Yamuna. Water quality monitoring is an important aspect of water management concerning to the pollution control. Public concern and legislation are now a day’s demanding better environmental control. Conventional method for estimating BOD5 has various drawbacks as they are expensive, time-consuming, and require the use of highly trained personnel. Stringent forthcoming regulations on the wastewater have necessitated the urge to develop analytical system, which contribute to greater process efficiency. Biosensors offer the possibility of real time analysis. Methodology: In the present study, a novel rapid method for the determination of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) has been developed. Using the developed method, the BOD of a sample can be determined within 2 hours as compared to 3-5 days with the standard BOD3-5day assay. Moreover, the test is based on specified consortia instead of undefined seeding material therefore it minimizes the variability among the results. The device is coupled to software which automatically calculates the dilution required, so, the prior dilution of the sample is not required before BOD estimation. The developed BOD-Biosensor makes use of immobilized microorganisms to sense the biochemical oxygen demand of industrial wastewaters having low–moderate–high biodegradability. The method is quick, robust, online and less time consuming. Findings: The results of extensive testing of the developed biosensor on drains demonstrate that the BOD values obtained by the device correlated with conventional BOD values the observed R2 value was 0.995. The reproducibility of the measurements with the BOD biosensor was within a percentage deviation of ±10%. Advantages of developed BOD biosensor • Determines the water pollution quickly in 2 hours of time; • Determines the water pollution of all types of waste water; • Has prolonged shelf life of more than 400 days; • Enhanced repeatability and reproducibility values; • Elimination of COD estimation. Distinctiveness of Technology: • Bio-component: can determine BOD load of all types of waste water; • Immobilization: increased shelf life > 400 days, extended stability and viability; • Software: Reduces manual errors, reduction in estimation time. Conclusion: BiosensorBOD can be used to measure the BOD value of the real wastewater samples. The BOD biosensor showed good reproducibility in the results. This technology is useful in deciding treatment strategies well ahead and so facilitating discharge of properly treated water to common water bodies. The developed technology has been transferred to M/s Forbes Marshall Pvt Ltd, Pune.

Keywords: biosensor, biochemical oxygen demand, immobilized, monitoring, Yamuna

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Maritza Estela Garay-Rodriguez, Mirella Gutierrez-Arzaluz, Miguel Torres-Rodriguez, Violeta Mugica-Alvarez

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Arsenic is an element present in the earth's crust and is dispersed in the environment through natural processes and some anthropogenic activities. Naturally released into the environment through the weathering and erosion of sulphides mineral, some activities such as mining, the use of pesticides or wood preservatives potentially increase the concentration of arsenic in air, water, and soil. The natural arsenic release of a geological material is a threat to the world's drinking water sources. In aqueous phase is found in inorganic form, as arsenate and arsenite mainly, the contamination of groundwater by salts of this element originates what is known as endemic regional hydroarsenicism. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) categorizes the inorganic As within group I, as a substance with proven carcinogenic action for humans. It has been found the presence of As in groundwater in several countries such as Argentina, Mexico, Bangladesh, Canada and the United States. Regarding the concentration of arsenic in drinking water according to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) establish maximum concentrations of 10 μg L⁻¹. In Mexico, in some states as Hidalgo, Morelos and Michoacán concentrations of arsenic have been found in bodies of water around 1000 μg L⁻¹, a concentration that is well above what is allowed by Mexican regulations with the NOM-127- SSA1-1994 that establishes a limit of 25 μg L⁻¹. Given this problem in Mexico, this research proposes the use of a natural Mexican zeolite (clinoptilolite type) native to the district of Etla in the central valley region of Oaxaca, as an adsorbent for the removal of arsenic. The zeolite was subjected to a conditioning with iron oxide by the precipitation-impregnation method with 0.5 M iron nitrate solution, in order to increase the natural adsorption capacity of this material. The removal of arsenic was carried out in a column with a fixed bed of conditioned zeolite, since it combines the advantages of a conventional filter with those of a natural adsorbent medium, providing a continuous treatment, of low cost and relatively easy to operate, for its implementation in marginalized areas. The zeolite was characterized by XRD, SEM/EDS, and FTIR before and after the arsenic adsorption tests, the results showed that the modification methods used are adequate to prepare adsorbent materials since it does not modify its structure, the results showed that with a particle size of 1.18 mm, an initial concentration of As (V) ions of 1 ppm, a pH of 7 and at room temperature, a removal of 98.7% was obtained with an adsorption capacity of 260 μg As g⁻¹ zeolite. The results obtained indicated that the conditioned zeolite is favorable for the elimination of arsenate in water containing up to 1000 μg As L⁻¹ and could be suitable for removing arsenate from pits of water.

Keywords: adsorption, arsenic, iron conditioning, natural zeolite

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Authors: Sophia Liang Zhou

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For investors, businesses, consumers, and governments, an accurate assessment of future housing prices is crucial to critical decisions in resource allocation, policy formation, and investment strategies. Previous studies are contradictory about macroeconomic determinants of housing price and largely focused on one or two areas using point prediction. This study aims to develop data-driven models to accurately predict future housing market trends in different markets. This work studied five different metropolitan areas representing different market trends and compared three-time lagging situations: no lag, 6-month lag, and 12-month lag. Linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), and artificial neural network (ANN) were employed to model the real estate price using datasets with S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and 12 demographic and macroeconomic features, such as gross domestic product (GDP), resident population, personal income, etc. in five metropolitan areas: Boston, Dallas, New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. The data from March 2005 to December 2018 were collected from the Federal Reserve Bank, FBI, and Freddie Mac. In the original data, some factors are monthly, some quarterly, and some yearly. Thus, two methods to compensate missing values, backfill or interpolation, were compared. The models were evaluated by accuracy, mean absolute error, and root mean square error. The LR and ANN models outperformed the RF model due to RF’s inherent limitations. Both ANN and LR methods generated predictive models with high accuracy ( > 95%). It was found that personal income, GDP, population, and measures of debt consistently appeared as the most important factors. It also showed that technique to compensate missing values in the dataset and implementation of time lag can have a significant influence on the model performance and require further investigation. The best performing models varied for each area, but the backfilled 12-month lag LR models and the interpolated no lag ANN models showed the best stable performance overall, with accuracies > 95% for each city. This study reveals the influence of input variables in different markets. It also provides evidence to support future studies to identify the optimal time lag and data imputing methods for establishing accurate predictive models.

Keywords: linear regression, random forest, artificial neural network, real estate price prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Tiffanie-Marie Borg, Yasmin Zeinolabediny, Nima Heidari, Ali Noorani, Mark Slevin, Angel Cullen, Stefano Olgiati, Alberto Zerbi, Alessandro Danovi, Adrian Wilson

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Knee Osteoarthritis (OA) is a critical cause of disability globally. In recent years, there has been growing interest in non-invasive treatments, such as intra-articular injection of micro-fragmented fat (MFAT), showing great potential in treating OA. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), originating from pericytes of micro-vessels in MFAT, can differentiate into mesenchymal lineage cells such as cartilage, osteocytes, adipocytes, and osteoblasts. Secretion of growth factor and cytokines from MSCs have the capability to inhibit T cell growth, reduced pain and inflammation, and create a micro-environment that through paracrine signaling, can promote joint repair and cartilage regeneration. Here we have shown, for the first time, data supporting the hypothesis that women respond better in terms of improvements in pain and function to MFAT injection compared to men. Historically, women have been underrepresented in studies, and studies with both sexes regularly fail to analyse the results by sex. To mitigate this bias and quantify it, we describe a technique using reproducible statistical analysis and replicable results with Open Access statistical software R to calculate the magnitude of this difference. Genetic, hormonal, environmental, and age factors play a role in our observed difference between the sexes. This observational, intention-to-treat study included the complete sample of 456 patients who agreed to be scored for pain (visual analogue scale (VAS)) and function (Oxford knee score (OKS)) at baseline regardless of subsequent changes to adherence or status during follow-up. We report that a significantly larger number of women responded to treatment than men: [90% vs. 60% change in VAS scores with 87% vs. 65% change in OKS scores, respectively]. Women overall had a stronger positive response to treatment with reduced pain and improved mobility and function. Pre-injection, our cohort of women were in more pain with worse joint function which is quite common to see in orthopaedics. However, during the 2-year follow-up, they consistently maintained a lower incidence of discomfort with superior joint function. This data clearly identifies a clear need for further studies to identify the cell and molecular biological and other basis for these differences and be able to utilize this information for stratification in order to improve outcome for both women and men.

Keywords: gender differences, micro-fragmented adipose tissue, knee osteoarthritis, stem cells

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Jovie Esquivias Nicolas, Ron Aldrin Lontoc Austria, Crisabelle Belleza Bautista, Mariane Chiho Espinosa Bundalian, Owwen Kervy Del Rosario Castillo, Mary Angelyn Mercado Dela Cruz, Heinrich Theraja Recana De Luna, Chriscell Gipanao Eustaquio, Desiree Laine Lauz Gilbas, Jordan Ignacio Legaspi, Larah Denise David Madrid, Charles Linelle Malapote Mendoza, Hazel Maxine Manalad Reyes, Carl Justine Nabora Saberdo, Claire Mae Rendon Santos

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In response to the global race in discovering the next advanced sustainable material that will reduce our ecological footprint, the researchers aimed to create a masonry unit which is competent in physical edifices and other constructional facets. From different proven researches, mycelium has been concluded that when dried can be used as a robust and waterproof building material that can be grown into explicit forms, thus reducing the processing requirements. Hypothesizing inclusive measures to attest fungi’s impressive structural qualities and absorbency, the researchers projected to perform comparative analyses in creating mycelium bricks from mushroom spores of G. lucidum. Three treatments were intended to classify the most ideal concentration of clay and substrate fixings. The substrate bags fixed with 30% clay and 70% mixings indicated highest numerical frequencies in terms of full occupation of fungal mycelia. Subsequently, sorted parts of white portions from the treatment were settled in a thermoplastic mold and burnt. Three proportional concentrations of cultivated substrate and cement were also prioritized to gather results of variation focused on the weights of the bricks in the Water Absorption Test and Durability Test. Fungal inoculums with solutions of cement showed small to moderate amounts of decrease and increase in load. This proves that the treatments did not show any significant difference when it comes to strength, efficiency and absorption capacity. Each of the concentration is equally valid and could be used in supporting the worldwide demands of creating numerous bricks while also taking into consideration the recovery of our nature.

Keywords: mycelium, fungi, fungal mycelia, durability test, water absorption test

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Nurten Akgun, Dilum Dissanayake, Neil Thorpe, Margaret C. Bell

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Cycling has gained a great attention with comparable speeds, low cost, health benefits and reducing the impact on the environment. The main challenge associated with cycling is the provision of safety for the people choosing to cycle as their main means of transport. From the road safety point of view, cyclists are considered as vulnerable road users because they are at higher risk of serious casualty in the urban network but more specifically at roundabouts. This research addresses the development of an enhanced mathematical model by including a broad spectrum of casualty related variables. These variables were geometric design measures (approach number of lanes and entry path radius), speed limit, meteorological condition variables (light, weather, road surface) and socio-demographic characteristics (age and gender), as well as contributory factors. Contributory factors included driver’s behavior related variables such as failed to look properly, sudden braking, a vehicle passing too close to a cyclist, junction overshot, failed to judge other person’s path, restart moving off at the junction, poor turn or manoeuvre and disobeyed give-way. Tyne and Wear in the UK were selected as a case study area. The cyclist casualty data was obtained from UK STATS19 National dataset. The reference categories for the regression model were set to slight and serious cyclist casualties. Therefore, binary logistic regression was applied. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that approach number of lanes was statistically significant at the 95% level of confidence. A higher number of approach lanes increased the probability of severity of cyclist casualty occurrence. In addition, sudden braking statistically significantly increased the cyclist casualty severity at the 95% level of confidence. The result concluded that cyclist casualty severity was highly related to approach a number of lanes and sudden braking. Further research should be carried out an in-depth analysis to explore connectivity of sudden braking and approach number of lanes in order to investigate the driver’s behavior at approach locations. The output of this research will inform investment in measure to improve the safety of cyclists at roundabouts.

Keywords: binary logistic regression, casualty severity, cyclist safety, roundabout

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi, Jordi Moreno Gené

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Managerial actions which negatively profile banks and impair corporate reputation are addressed through effective internal control systems. Disregard for acceptable standards and procedures for granting credit have affected bank loan portfolios and could be cited for the crises in some European countries. The study intends to determine the effectiveness of internal control systems, investigate whether perceived agency problems exist on the part of board members and to establish the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in the European Union. Drawing theoretical support from the behavioural compliance and agency theories, about seventeen internal control variables (drawn from the revised COSO framework), bank-specific, country, stock market and macro-economic variables will be involved in the study. A purely quantitative approach will be employed to model internal control variables covering the control environment, risk management, control activities, information and communication and monitoring. Panel data from 2005-2014 on listed banks from 28 European Union countries will be used for the study. Hypotheses will be tested and the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression will be run to establish the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The Hausman test will be used to select whether random or fixed effect model will be used. It is expected that listed banks will have sound internal control systems but their effectiveness cannot be confirmed. A perceived agency problem on the part of the board of directors is expected to be confirmed. The study expects significant effect of internal controls on credit risk. The study will uncover another perspective of internal controls as not only an operational risk issue but credit risk too. Banks will be cautious that observing effective internal control systems is an ethical and socially responsible act since the collapse (crisis) of financial institutions as a result of excessive default is a major contagion. This study deviates from the usual primary data approach to measuring internal control variables and rather models internal control variables in a quantitative approach for the panel data. Thus a grey area in approaching the revised COSO framework for internal controls is opened for further research. Most bank failures and crises could be averted if effective internal control systems are religiously adhered to.

Keywords: agency theory, credit risk, internal controls, revised COSO framework

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Authors: Esmat Kamel

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This paper aims to shed light on the extent to which the Agadir Association agreement has fostered inter regional trade between the E.U_26 and the Agadir_4 countries; once that we control for the evolution of Agadir agreement’s exports to the rest of the world. The next valid question will be regarding any remarkable variation in the spatial/sectoral structure of exports, and to what extent has it been induced by the Agadir agreement itself and precisely after the adoption of rules of origin and the PANEURO diagonal cumulative scheme? The paper’s empirical dataset covering a timeframe from [2000 -2009] was designed to account for sector specific export and intermediate flows and the bilateral structured gravity model was custom tailored to capture sector and regime specific rules of origin and the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator was used to calculate the gravity equation. The methodological approach of this work is considered to be a threefold one which starts first by conducting a ‘Hierarchal Cluster Analysis’ to classify final export flows showing a certain degree of linkage between each other. The analysis resulted in three main sectoral clusters of exports between Agadir_4 and E.U_26: cluster 1 for Petrochemical related sectors, cluster 2 durable goods and finally cluster 3 for heavy duty machinery and spare parts sectors. Second step continues by taking export flows resulting from the 3 clusters to be subject to treatment with diagonal Rules of origin through ‘The Double Differences Approach’, versus an equally comparable untreated control group. Third step is to verify results through a robustness check applied by ‘Propensity Score Matching’ to validate that the same sectoral final export and intermediate flows increased when rules of origin were relaxed. Through all the previous analysis, a remarkable and partial significance of the interaction term combining both treatment effects and time for the coefficients of 13 out of the 17 covered sectors turned out to be partially significant and it further asserted that treatment with diagonal rules of origin contributed in increasing Agadir’s_4 final and intermediate exports to the E.U._26 on average by 335% and in changing Agadir_4 exports structure and composition to the E.U._26 countries.

Keywords: agadir association agreement, structured gravity model, hierarchal cluster analysis, double differences estimation, propensity score matching, diagonal and relaxed rules of origin

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Authors: Noelene Rose

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The DSM has been plagued with conceptual issues since its inception, not least discriminant validity and comorbidity issues. An attempt to remain a-theoretical in the divide between the psycho-dynamicists and the behaviourists contributed to much of this, in particular relating to the Personality Disorders. With the DSM-5, although the criterion have remained unchanged, major conceptual and structural directions have been flagged and proposed in section III. The biggest changes concern the Personality Disorders. While Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) was initially tagged for removal, instead the addition of section III proposes a move away from a categorical approach to a more dimensional approach, with a measure of Global Function of Personality. This global measure is an assessment of impairment of self-other relations; a measure of trait narcissism. In the same way mainstream psychology has struggled in its diagnosis of narcissism, so too in its treatment. Kohut’s self psychology represents the most significant inroad in theory and treatment for the narcissistic disorders. Kohut had moved away from a categorical system, towards disorders of the self. According to this theory, disorders of the self are the result of childhood trauma (impaired attunement) resulting in a developmental arrest. Self-psychological, Psychodynamic treatment of narcissism, however, is expensive, in time and money and outside the awareness or access of most people. There is more than a suggestion that narcissism is on the increase, created in trauma and worsened by a fearful world climate. A dimensional model of narcissism, from mild to severe, requires cut off points for diagnosis. But where do we draw the line? Mainstream psychology is inclined to set it high when there is some degree of impairment in functioning in daily life. Transpersonal Psychology is inclined to set it low, with the concept that we all have some degree of narcissism and that it is the point and the path of our life journey to transcend our focus on our selves. Mainstream psychology stops its focus on trait narcissism with a healthy level of self esteem, but it is at this point that Transpersonal Psychology can complement the discussion. From a Transpersonal point of view, failure to begin the process of self-transcendence will also create emotional symptoms of meaning or purpose, often later in our lives, and is also conceived of as a developmental arrest. The maps for this transcendence are hidden in plain sight; in the chakras of kundalini yoga, in the sacraments of the Catholic Church, in the Kabbalah tree of life of Judaism, in Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, to name a few. This paper outlines some proposed research exploring the use of daily practices that can be incorporated into the therapy room; practices that utilise meditation, visualisation and imagination: that are informed by spiritual technology and guided by the psychodynamic theory of Self Psychology.

Keywords: narcissism, self-psychology, self-practice, self-transcendence

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Authors: Peter Boyes, Sarah Sharples, Paul Tennent, Gary Priestnall, Jeremy Morley

Abstract:

Significant long-term investment projects can involve complex decisions. These are often described as capital projects, and the factors that contribute to their complexity include budgets, motivating reasons for investment, stakeholder involvement, interdependent projects, and the delivery phases required. The complexity of these projects often requires management groups to be established involving stakeholder representatives; these teams are inherently multidisciplinary. This study uses two university campus capital projects as case studies for this type of management group. Due to the interaction of projects with wider campus infrastructure and users, decisions are made at varying spatial granularity throughout the project lifespan. This spatial-related context brings complexity to the group decisions. Sensemaking is the process used to achieve group situational awareness of a complex situation, enabling the team to arrive at a consensus and make a decision. The purpose of this study is to understand the role of people and data in the complex spatial related long-term decision and sensemaking processes. The paper aims to identify and present issues experienced in practical settings of these types of decision. A series of exploratory semi-structured interviews with members of the two projects elicit an understanding of their operation. From two stages of thematic analysis, inductive and deductive, emergent themes are identified around the group structure, the data usage, and the decision making within these groups. When data were made available to the group, there were commonly issues with the perception of veracity and validity of the data presented; this impacted the ability of group to reach consensus and, therefore, for decisions to be made. Similarly, there were different responses to forecasted or modelled data, shaped by the experience and occupation of the individuals within the multidisciplinary management group. This paper provides an understanding of further support required for team sensemaking and decision making in complex capital projects. The paper also discusses the barriers found to effective decision making in this setting and suggests opportunities to develop decision support systems in this team strategic decision-making process. Recommendations are made for further research into the sensemaking and decision-making process of this complex spatial-related setting.

Keywords: decision making, decisions under uncertainty, real decisions, sensemaking, spatial, team decision making

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