Search results for: call drop probability

Authors: P.V. Lostelius, M.Mattebo, E. Thors Adolfsson, A. Söderlund, Å. Revenäs

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Adolescents are vulnerable in healthcare settings. Early detection of poor health in young people is important to support a good quality of life and adult social functioning. Youth Health Clinics (YHCs) in Sweden provide healthcare for young people ages 13-25 years old. Using an overall mixed methods approach, the project’s main objective was to develop and evaluate an electronic health system, including a health questionnaire, a case report form, and an evaluation questionnaire to assess young people’s health risks in early stages, increase health, and quality of life. In total, 72 young people, 16-23 years old, eleven healthcare professionals and eight researchers participated in the three project studies. Results from interviews with fifteen young people gave that an electronic health questionnaire should include questions about physical-, mental-, sexual health and social support. It should specifically include questions about self-harm and suicide risk. The young people said that the questionnaire should be appealing, based on young people’s needs and be user-friendly. It was important that young people felt safe when responding to the questions, both physically and electronically. Also, they found that it had the potential to support the face-to face-meeting between young people and healthcare professionals. The electronic health report system was developed by the researchers, performing a structured development of the electronic health questionnaire, construction of a case report form to present the results from the health questions, along with an electronic evaluation questionnaire. An Information Technology company finalized the development by digitalizing the electronic health system. Four young people, three healthcare professionals and seven researchers evaluated the usability using interviews and a usability questionnaire. The electronic health questionnaire was found usable for YHCs but needed some clarifications. Essentially, the system succeeded in capturing the overall health of young people; it should be able to keep the interest of young people and have the potential to contribute to health assessment planning and young people’s self-reflection, sharing vulnerable feelings with healthcare professionals. In advance of effect studies, a feasibility study was performed by collecting electronic questionnaire data from 54 young people and interview data from eight healthcare professionals to assess the feasibility of the use of the electronic evaluation questionnaire, the case report form, and the planned recruitment method. When merging the results, the research group found that the evaluation questionnaire and the health report were feasible for future research. However, the COVID-19 pandemic, commitment challenges and drop-outs affected the recruitment of young people. Also, some healthcare professionals felt insecure about using computers and electronic devices and worried that their workload would increase. This project contributes knowledge about the development and use of electronic health tools for young people. Before implementation, clinical routines need for using the health report system need to be considered.

Keywords: adolescent health, developmental studies, electronic health questionnaire, mixed methods research

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Authors: Mayoorika Shukla, Pramila Jakhar, Tejendra Dixit, I. A. Palani, Vipul Singh

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Biosensors are analytical devices with wide range of applications in biological, chemical, environmental and clinical analysis. It comprises of bio-recognition layer which has biomolecules (enzymes, antibodies, DNA, etc.) immobilized over it for detection of analyte and transducer which converts the biological signal into the electrical signal. The performance of biosensor primarily the depends on the bio-recognition layer and therefore it has to be chosen wisely. In this regard, nanostructures of metal oxides such as ZnO, SnO2, V2O5, and TiO2, etc. have been explored extensively as bio-recognition layer. Recently, ZnO has the attracted attention of researchers due to its unique properties like high iso-electric point, biocompatibility, stability, high electron mobility and high electron binding energy, etc. Although there have been many reports on usage of ZnO as bio-recognition layer but to the authors’ knowledge, none has ever observed correlation between optical properties like defect suppression and biosensing capability of the sensor. Here, ZnO nanorods (ZNR) have been synthesized by a low cost, simple and low-temperature hydrothermal growth process, over Platinum (Pt) coated glass substrate. The ZNR have been synthesized in two steps viz. initially a seed layer was coated over substrate (Pt coated glass) followed by immersion of it into nutrient solution of Zinc nitrate and Hexamethylenetetramine (HMTA) with in situ addition of KMnO4. The addition of KMnO4 was observed to have a profound effect over the growth rate anisotropy of ZnO nanostructures. Clustered and powdery growth of ZnO was observed without addition of KMnO4, although by addition of it during the growth, uniform and crystalline ZNR were found to be grown over the substrate. Moreover, the same has resulted in suppression of defects as observed by Normalized Photoluminescence (PL) spectra since KMnO4 is a strong oxidizing agent which provides an oxygen rich growth environment. Further, to explore the correlation between defect suppression and biosensing capability of the ZNR Glucose oxidase (Gox) was immobilized over it, using physical adsorption technique followed by drop casting of nafion. Here the main objective of the work was to analyze effect of defect suppression over biosensing capability, and therefore Gox has been chosen as model enzyme, and electrochemical amperometric glucose detection was performed. The incorporation of KMnO4 during growth has resulted in variation of optical and charge transfer properties of ZNR which in turn were observed to have deep impact on biosensor figure of merits. The sensitivity of biosensor was found to increase by 12-18 times, due to variations introduced by addition of KMnO4 during growth. The amperometric detection of glucose in continuously stirred buffer solution was performed. Interestingly, defect suppression has been observed to contribute towards the improvement of biosensor performance. The detailed mechanism of growth of ZNR along with the overall influence of defect suppression on the sensing capabilities of the resulting enzymatic electrochemical biosensor and different figure of merits of the biosensor (Glass/Pt/ZNR/Gox/Nafion) will be discussed during the conference.

Keywords: biosensors, defects, KMnO4, ZnO nanorods

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Authors: Ji Zhou, Jung Hee Seo, Rajat Mittal

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Fish move in groups for foraging, reproduction, predator protection, and hydrodynamic efficiency. Schooling's predator protection involves the "many eyes" theory, which increases predator detection probability in a group. Reduced visual signature in a group scales with school size, offering per-capita protection. The ‘confusion effect’ makes it hard for predators to target prey in a group. These benefits, however, all focus on vision-based sensing, overlooking sound-based detection. Fish, including predators, possess sophisticated sensory systems for pressure waves and underwater sound. The lateral line system detects acoustic waves, while otolith organs sense infrasound, and sharks use an auditory system for low-frequency sounds. Among sound generation mechanisms of fish, the mechanism of dipole sound relates to hydrodynamic pressure forces on the body surface of the fish and this pressure would be affected by group swimming. Thus, swimming within a group could affect this hydrodynamic noise signature of fish and possibly serve as an additional protection afforded by schooling, but none of the studies to date have explored this effect. BAUVs with fin-like propulsors could reduce acoustic noise without compromising performance, addressing issues of anthropogenic noise pollution in marine environments. Therefore, in this study, we used our in-house immersed-boundary method flow and acoustic solver, ViCar3D, to simulate fish schools consisting of four swimmers in the classic ‘diamond’ configuration and discussed the feasibility of yielding higher swimming efficiency and controlling far-field sound signature of the school. We examine the effects of the relative phase of fin flapping of the swimmers and the simulation results indicate that the phase of the fin flapping is a dominant factor in both thrust enhancement and the total sound radiated into the far-field by a group of swimmers. For fish in the “diamond” configuration, a suitable combination of the relative phase difference between pairs of leading fish and trailing fish can result in better swimming performance with significantly lower hydroacoustic noise.

Keywords: fish schooling, biopropulsion, hydrodynamics, hydroacoustics

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Authors: Laura Irimies, Cosmin Irimies

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The public space all over the world is currently confronted with the aggressive assault of fake news that have lately impacted public agenda setting, collective decisions and social attitudes. Top leaders constantly call out most mainstream news as “fake news” and the public opinion get more confused. "Fake news" are generally defined as false, often sensational, information disseminated under the guise of news reporting and has been declared the word of the year 2017 by Collins Dictionary and it also has been one of the most debated socio-political topics of recent years. Websites which, deliberately or not, publish misleading information are often shared on social media where they essentially increase their reach and influence. According to international reports, the exposure to fake news is an undeniable reality all over the world as the exposure to completely invented information goes up to the 31 percent in the US, and it is even bigger in Eastern Europe countries, such as Hungary (42%) and Romania (38%) or in Mediterranean countries, such as Greece (44%) or Turkey (49%), and lower in Northern and Western Europe countries – Germany (9%), Denmark (9%) or Holland (10%). While the study of fake news (mechanism and effects) is still in its infancy, it has become truly relevant as the phenomenon seems to have a growing impact on democratic systems. Studies conducted by the European Commission show that 83% of respondents out of a total of 26,576 interviewees consider the existence of news that misrepresent reality as a threat for democracy. Studies recently conducted at Arizona State University show that people with higher education can more easily spot fake headlines, but over 30 percent of them can still be trapped by fake information. If we were to refer only to some of the most recent situations in Romania, fake news issues and hidden agenda suspicions related to the massive and extremely violent public demonstrations held on August 10th, 2018 with a strong participation of the Romanian diaspora have been massively reflected by the international media and generated serious debates within the European Commission. Considering the above framework, the study raises four main research questions: 1. Is fake news a problem or just a natural consequence of mainstream media decline and the abundance of sources of information? 2. What are the implications for democracy? 3. Can fake news be controlled without restricting fundamental human rights? 4. How could the public be properly educated to detect fake news? The research uses mostly qualitative but also quantitative methods, content analysis of studies, websites and media content, official reports and interviews. The study will prove the real threat fake news represent and also the need for proper media literacy education and will draw basic guidelines for developing a new and essential skill: that of detecting fake in news in a society overwhelmed by sources of information that constantly roll massive amounts of information increasing the risk of misinformation and leading to inadequate public decisions that could affect democratic stability.

Keywords: agenda setting democracy, fake news, journalism, media literacy

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Authors: Alua Massalimova

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Situation analysis of Blood Service revealed that the strengths dominated over the weak 1.4 times. The possibilities dominate over the threats by 1.1 times. It follows that by using timely the possibility the Service, it is possible to strengthen its strengths and avoid threats. Priority directions of the resulting analysis are the use of subjective factors, such as personal management capacity managers of the Blood Center in the field of possibilities of legal activity of administrative decisions and the mobilization of stable staff in general market conditions. We have studied for the period 2011-2015 retrospectively indicators of Blood Service of Kazakhstan. Strengths of Blood Service of RK(Ps4,5): 1) indicators of donations for 1000 people is higher than in some countries of the CIS (in Russia 14, Kazakhstan - 17); 2) the functioning science centre of transfusiology; 3) the legal possibility of additional financing blood centers in the form of paid services; 4) the absence of competitors; 5) training on specialty Transfusiology; 6) the stable management staff of blood centers, a high level of competence; 7) increase in the incidence requiring transfusion therapy (oncohematology); 8) equipment upgrades; 9) the opening of a reference laboratory; 10) growth of the proportion of issued high-quality blood components; 11) governmental organization 'Drop of Life'; 12) the functioning bone marrow register; 13) equipped with modern equipment HLA-laboratory; 14) High categorization of average medical workers; 15) availability of own specialized scientific journal; 16) vivarium. The weaknesses (Ps = 3.5): 1) the incomplete equipping of blood centers and blood transfusion cabinets according to standards; 2) low specific weight of paid services of the CC; 3) low categorization of doctors; 4) high staff turnover; 5) the low scientific potential of industrial and clinical of transfusiology; 6) the low wages paid; 7) slight growth of harvested donor blood; 8) the weak continuity with offices blood transfusion; 9) lack of agitation work; 10) the formally functioning of Transfusion Association; 11) the absence of scientific laboratories; 12) high standard deviation from the average for donations in the republic. The possibilities (Ps = 2,7): 1): international grants; 2) organization of international seminars on clinical of transfusiology; 3) cross-sectoral cooperation; 4) to increase scientific research in the field of clinical of transfusiology; 5) reduce the share of donation unsuitable for transfusion and processing; 6) strengthening marketing management in the development of fee-based services; 7) advertising paid services; 8) strengthening the publishing of teaching aids; 9) team-building staff. The threats (Ps = 2.1): 1) an increase of staff turnover; 2) the risk of litigation; 3) reduction gemoprodukts based on evidence-based medicine; 4) regression of scientific capacity; 5) organization of marketing; 6) transfusiologist marketing; 7) reduction in the quality of the evidence base transfusions.

Keywords: blood service, healthcare, Kazakhstan, quantative swot analysis

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Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar, Varun Raman

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The Corrective maintenance of components and systems is a problem plaguing almost every industry in the world today. Train operators’ and the maintenance repair and overhaul subsidiary of the Dutch railway company is also facing this problem. A considerable portion of the maintenance activities carried out by the company are unscheduled. This, in turn, severely stresses and stretches the workforce and resources available. One possible solution is to have a robust preventive maintenance plan. The other possible solution is to plan maintenance based on real-time data obtained from sensor-based ‘Health and Usage Monitoring Systems.’ The former has been investigated in this paper. The preventive maintenance model developed for train operator will subsequently be extended, to tackle the unscheduled maintenance problem also affecting the aerospace industry. The extension of the model to the aerospace sector will be dealt with in the second part of the research, and it would, in turn, validate the soundness of the model developed. Thus, there are distinct areas that will be addressed in this paper, including the mathematical modelling of preventive maintenance and optimization based on cost and system availability. The results of this research will help an organization to choose the right maintenance strategy, allowing it to save considerable sums of money as opposed to overspending under the guise of maintaining high asset availability. The concept of delay time modelling was used to address the practical problem of unscheduled maintenance in this paper. The delay time modelling can be used to help with support planning for a given asset. The model was run using MATLAB, and the results are shown that the ideal inspection intervals computed using the extended from a minimal cost perspective were 29 days, and from a minimum downtime, perspective was 14 days. Risk matrix integration was constructed to represent the risk in terms of the probability of a fault leading to breakdown maintenance and its consequences in terms of maintenance cost. Thus, the choice of an optimal inspection interval of 29 days, resulted in a cost of approximately 50 Euros and the corresponding value of b(T) was 0.011. These values ensure that the risk associated with component X being maintained at an inspection interval of 29 days is more than acceptable. Thus, a switch in maintenance frequency from 90 days to 29 days would be optimal from the point of view of cost, downtime and risk.

Keywords: delay time modelling, unscheduled maintenance, reliability, maintainability, availability

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Authors: Getahun Nigusie Demise

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Background; antiretroviral treatment reduce HIV-related morbidity, and prolonged survival of patients however, there is lack of up-to-date information concerning the treatment long term effect on the survival of HIV positive children especially in the study area. Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the incidence and predictors of mortality among HIV positive children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in public hospitals of Harer town who were enrolled from 2011 to 2021. Methodology: Institution based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 429 HIV positive children enrolled in ART clinic from January 1st 2011 to December30th 2021. Data were collected from medical cards by using a data extraction form, Descriptive analyses were used to Summarized the results, and life table was used to estimate survival probability at specific point of time after introduction of ART. Kaplan Meier survival curve together with log rank test was used to compare survival between different categories of covariates, and Multivariate Cox-proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate adjusted Hazard rate. Variables with p-values ≤0.25 in bivariable analysis were candidates to the multivariable analysis. Finally, variables with p-values < 0.05 were considered as significant variables. Results: The study participants had followed for a total of 2549.6 child-years (30596 child months) with an overall mortality rate of 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1, 2.04) per 100 child-years. Their median survival time was 112 months (95% CI: 101–117). There were 38 children with unknown outcome, 39 deaths, and 55 children transfer out to different facility. The overall survival at 6, 12, 24, 48 months were 98%, 96%, 95%, 94% respectively. being in WHO clinical Stage four (AHR=4.55, 95% CI:1.36, 15.24), having anemia(AHR=2.56, 95% CI:1.11, 5.93), baseline low absolute CD4 count (AHR=2.95, 95% CI: 1.22, 7.12), stunting (AHR=4.1, 95% CI: 1.11, 15.42), wasting (AHR=4.93, 95% CI: 1.31, 18.76), poor adherence to treatment (AHR=3.37, 95% CI: 1.25, 9.11), having TB infection at enrollment (AHR=3.26, 95% CI: 1.25, 8.49),and no history of change their regimen(AHR=7.1, 95% CI: 2.74, 18.24), were independent predictors of death. Conclusion: more than half of death occurs within 2 years. Prevalent tuberculosis, anemia, wasting, and stunting nutritional status, socioeconomic factors, and baseline opportunistic infection were independent predictors of death. Increasing early screening and managing those predictors are required.

Keywords: human immunodeficiency virus-positive children, anti-retroviral therapy, survival, treatment, Ethiopia

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Authors: Roseliza Mat Alipiah, David Raffaelli, J. C. R. Smart

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This research is a new approach as it integrates information from both environmental and social sciences to inform effective management of the wetlands. A three-stage research framework was developed for modelling the drivers and pressures imposed on the wetlands and their impacts to the ecosystem and the local communities. Firstly, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was used to predict the probability of anthropogenic activities affecting the delivery of different key wetland ecosystem services under different management scenarios. Secondly, Choice Experiments (CEs) were used to quantify the relative preferences which key wetland stakeholder group (aquaculturists) held for delivery of different levels of these key ecosystem services. Thirdly, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was applied to produce an ordinal ranking of the alternative management scenarios accounting for their impacts upon ecosystem service delivery as perceived through the preferences of the aquaculturists. This integrated ecosystem management approach was applied to a wetland ecosystem in Setiu, Terengganu, Malaysia which currently supports a significant level of aquaculture activities. This research has produced clear guidelines to inform policy makers considering alternative wetland management scenarios: Intensive Aquaculture, Conservation or Ecotourism, in addition to the Status Quo. The findings of this research are as follows: The BBN revealed that current aquaculture activity is likely to have significant impacts on water column nutrient enrichment, but trivial impacts on caged fish biomass, especially under the Intensive Aquaculture scenario. Secondly, the best fitting CE models identified several stakeholder sub-groups for aquaculturists, each with distinct sets of preferences for the delivery of key ecosystem services. Thirdly, the MCDA identified Conservation as the most desirable scenario overall based on ordinal ranking in the eyes of most of the stakeholder sub-groups. Ecotourism and Status Quo scenarios were the next most preferred and Intensive Aquaculture was the least desirable scenario. The methodologies developed through this research provide an opportunity for improving planning and decision making processes that aim to deliver sustainable management of wetland ecosystems in Malaysia.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network (BBN), choice experiments (CE), multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), aquaculture

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Authors: Siming Xie

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In social networks, the term homophily refers to the tendency of agents with similar characteristics to link with one another and is so robustly observed across many contexts and dimensions. The starting point of my research is the observation that the “type” of agents is not a single exogenous variable. Agents, despite their differences in race, religion, and other hard to alter characteristics, may share interests and engage in activities that cut across those predetermined lines. This research aims to capture the interactions of homophily effects in a model where agents have two-dimension characteristics (i.e., race and personal hobbies such as basketball, which one either likes or dislikes) and with biases in meeting opportunities and in favor of same-type friendships. A novel feature of my model is providing a matching process with biased meeting probability on different dimensions, which could help to understand the structuring process in multidimensional networks without missing layer interdependencies. The main contribution of this study is providing a welfare based matching process for agents with multi-dimensional characteristics. In particular, this research shows that the biases in meeting opportunities on one dimension would lead to the emergence of homophily on the other dimension. The objective of this research is to determine the pattern of homophily in network formations, which will shed light on our understanding of segregation and its remedies. By constructing a two-dimension matching process, this study explores a method to describe agents’ homophilous behavior in a social network with multidimension and construct a game in which the minorities and majorities play different strategies in a society. It also shows that the optimal strategy is determined by the relative group size, where society would suffer more from social segregation if the two racial groups have a similar size. The research also has political implications—cultivating the same characteristics among agents helps diminishing social segregation, but only if the minority group is small enough. This research includes both theoretical models and empirical analysis. Providing the friendship formation model, the author first uses MATLAB to perform iteration calculations, then derives corresponding mathematical proof on previous results, and last shows that the model is consistent with empirical evidence from high school friendships. The anonymous data comes from The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health).

Keywords: homophily, multidimension, social networks, friendships

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Authors: Tharwat Ibrahim Rushdy, Warda Youssef Mohammed Morsy, Hanaa Ali Ahmed Elfeky

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Background: Intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) is the first and the most commonly used mechanical circulatory support for patients with acute coronary syndromes and cardiogenic shock. Therefore, critical care nurses not only have to know how to monitor and operate the IABP, but also to provide interventions for preventing possible complications. Aim of the study: To assess nurses' knowledge and practices regarding care of patients connected to IABP at the ICUs of Cairo University Hospitals. Research design: A descriptive exploratory design was utilized. Sample: Convenience samples of 40 nurses were included in the current study. Setting: This study was carried out at the Intensive Care Units of Cairo University Hospitals. Tools of data collection: Three tools were developed, tested for clarity, and feasibility: a- Nurses' personal background sheet, b- IABP nurses' knowledge self-administered questionnaire, and c- IABP Nurses' practice observational checklist. Results: The majority of the studied sample had unsatisfactory knowledge and practice level (88% & 95%) respectively with a mean of 9.45+2.94 and 30.5+8.7, respectively. Unsatisfactory knowledge was found regarding description and physiological effects, nursing care, indications, contraindications, complications, weaning, and removal of IABP in percentage of 95%, 90%, 72.5%, and 57.5%, respectively, with a mean total knowledge score of 9.45 +2.94. In addition, unsatisfactory practice was found regarding about preparation and initiation of IABP therapy, nursing practice during therapy, weaning, and removal of IABP in percentages of (97.5%, 97.5%, and 90%), respectively. Finally, knowledge level was found to differ significantly in relation to gender (t = 2.46 at P ≤ 0.018). However, gender didn't play a role in relation to practice (t = 0.086 at P≤ 0.932). Conclusion: In spite of having vital role in assessment and management of critically ill patients, critical care nurses in the current study had in general unsatisfactory knowledge and practice regarding care of patients connected to IABP. Recommendation: updating knowledge and practice of ICU nurses through carrying out continuing educational programs about IABP; strict observation of nurses' practice when caring for patients connected to IABP and provision of guidance to correct of poor practices and replication of this study on larger probability sample selected from different geographical locations.

Keywords: knowledge, practice, intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP), ICU nurses, intensive care unit (ICU), introduction

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Authors: Disha Bhanot, Vinish Kathuria

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This study focusses on the issue of distress sale in horticulture sector in India, which faces unique challenges, given the perishable nature of horticulture crops, seasonal production and paucity of post-harvest produce management links. Distress sale, from a farmer’s perspective may be defined as urgent sale of normal or distressed goods, at deeply discounted prices (way below the cost of production) and it is usually characterized by unfavorable conditions for the seller (farmer). The small and marginal farmers, often involved in subsistence farming, stand to lose substantially if they receive lower prices than expected prices (typically framed in relation to cost of production). Distress sale maximizes price uncertainty of produce leading to substantial income loss; and with increase in input costs of farming, the high variability in harvest price severely affects profit margin of farmers, thereby affecting their survival. The objective of this study is to model the occurrence of distress sale by tomato cultivators in the Indian state of Maharashtra, against the background of differential access to set of factors such as - capital, irrigation facilities, warehousing, storage and processing facilities, and institutional arrangements for procurement etc. Data is being collected using primary survey of over 200 farmers in key tomato growing areas of Maharashtra, asking information on the above factors in addition to seeking information on cost of cultivation, selling price, time gap between harvesting and selling, role of middleman in selling, besides other socio-economic variables. Farmers selling their produce far below the cost of production would indicate an occurrence of distress sale. Occurrence of distress sale would then be modelled as a function of farm, household and institutional characteristics. Heckman-two-stage model would be applied to find the probability/likelihood of a famer falling into distress sale as well as to ascertain how the extent of distress sale varies in presence/absence of various factors. Findings of the study would recommend suitable interventions and promotion of strategies that would help farmers better manage price uncertainties, avoid distress sale and increase profit margins, having direct implications on poverty.

Keywords: distress sale, horticulture, income loss, India, price uncertainity

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Authors: Miyoko Taniguchi

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Conflict and violence have prevailed over the last four decades in conflict-affected areas in Muslim Mindanao, despite the signing of several peace agreements between the Philippine government and Islamic separatist insurgents (the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)), and peacebuilding activities on the ground. In the meantime, the peace talks had been facilitated and mediated by international actors such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and its member countries such as Indonesia, and Malaysia, and Japan. In 2014, both the Government of the Philippines (GPH) and the MILF finally reached a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CAB) in 2014 under the Aquino III administration, though a Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) based on the CAB was not enacted at the Catholic-majority of the Philippine Congress. After a long process of deliberations at the Congress, Republic Act 11054, known as the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), was enacted in 2018 under the Duterate administration. In the beginning, President Duterte adopted an 'inclusive approach' that involves the MILF, all factions of the MNLF, non-Islamized indigenous peoples, and other influential clan leaders to align all peace processes under a single Bangsamoro peace process. A notable difference from past administrations, there is an explicit recognition of all agreements and legislations based on the rights of each stakeholder. This created a new identity as 'Bangsamoro', the residents of Muslim Mindanao, enhancing political legitimacy. Besides, it should be noted an important role of 'insider mediators' -a platform for the Bangsamoro from diverse sectors attempting to work within their respective organizations in Moro society. Give the above background, this paper aims at probing the effectiveness of insider mediation as one of the alternative approaches for mediation in the peace process. For the objectives, this research uses qualitative methods such as process-tracing and semi-structured interviews from diverse groups of stakeholders at from the state to the regional level, including the government officials involved in peace process under the Presidential Office, rebels (MILF and MNLF), civil society organizations involved in lobbying and facilitating peace process, especially in the legislative process. The key outcomes and findings are that the Insider Mediators Group, formed in 2016, had taken on a significant role in facilitating the achievement of a wider consensus among stakeholders on major Moro issues such as BBL’s passing during the last administration to call for unity among the Bangsamoro. Most of its members are well-educated professionals affiliated with the MILF, the MNLF, and influential clans. One of the group’s biggest achievements has been the lobbying and provision of legal advice to legislators who were not necessarily knowledgeable about the peace process during the deliberation of the bicameral conference of the BBL, which eventually led to its passage. It can be concluded that in the long run, strengthening vertical and horizontal relations between the Moro society and the State and among the Moro peoples that can be viewed as a means to sustainable peace.

Keywords: insider mediation, Mindanao, peace process, Moro Islamic liberation front

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Authors: Nada Basset

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Purpose: To examine the nature of the civil service sector as an employer through identifying the likely ways to develop employees’ commitment towards change in the civil service sector. Design/Methodology/Approach: a qualitative research approach was followed. Data was collected via a triangulation of interviews, non-participant observation and archival documents analysis. Non-probability sampling took place with a case-study method applied on a sample of 33 civil servants working in the Egyptian Ministry of State for Administrative Development (MSAD) which is the civil service entity acting as the change agent responsible for managing the government administrative reforms plan in the civil service sector. All study participants were actually working in one of the change projects/programmes and had a minimum of 12 months of service in the civil service. Interviews were digitally recorded and transcribed in the form of MS-Word documents, and data transcripts were analyzed manually using MS-Excel worksheets and main research themes were developed and statistics drawn using those Excel worksheets. Findings: The results demonstrate that developing the civil servant’s commitment towards change may require a number of suggested solutions like (1) employee involvement and participation in the planning and implementation processes, (2) linking the employee support to change to some tangible rewards and incentives, (3) appointing some inspirational change leaders that should act as role models, and (4) as a last resort, enforcing employee’s commitment towards change by coercion and authoritarianism. Practical Implications: it is clear that civil servants’ lack of organizational commitment is not directly related to their level of commitment towards change. The research findings showed that civil servants’ commitment towards change can be raised and promoted by getting them involved in the planning and implementation processes, as this develops some sense of belongingness and ownership, thus there is a fair chance that low organizationally committed civil servants can develop high commitment towards change; given they are provided a favorable environment where they are invited to participate and get involved into the move of change. Originality/Value: the research addresses a relatively new area of ‘developing organizational commitment in modern bureaucracies’ by virtue of investigating the levels of civil servants’ commitment towards their jobs and/or organizations -on one hand- and suggesting different ways of developing their commitment towards administrative reform and change initiatives in the Egyptian civil service sector.

Keywords: change, commitment, Egypt, bureaucracy

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Authors: Georgios Boustras, Cleo Varianou Mikellidou, Christos Argyropoulos

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Summer 2021 was marked by a number of prolific fires in the EU (Greece, Cyprus, France) as well as outside the EU (USA, Turkey, Israel). This series of dramatic events have stretched national civil protection systems and first responders in particular. Despite the introduction of National, Regional and International frameworks (e.g. rescEU), a number of challenges have arisen, not only related to climate change. RESPOND-A (funded by the European Commission by Horizon 2020, Contract Number 883371) introduces a unique five-tier project architectural structure for best associating modern telecommunications technology with novel practices for First Responders of saving lives, while safeguarding themselves, more effectively and efficiently. The introduced architecture includes Perception, Network, Processing, Comprehension, and User Interface layers, which can be flexibly elaborated to support multiple levels and types of customization, so, the intended technologies and practices can adapt to any European Environment Agency (EEA)-type disaster scenario. During the preparation of the RESPOND-A proposal, some of our First Responder Partners expressed the need for an information management system that could boost existing emergency response tools, while some others envisioned a complete end-to-end network management system that would offer high Situational Awareness, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation capabilities. The intuition behind these needs and visions sits on the long-term experience of these Responders, as well, their smoldering worry that the evolving threat of climate change and the consequences of industrial accidents will become more frequent and severe. Three large-scale pilot studies are planned in order to illustrate the capabilities of the RESPOND-A system. The first pilot study will focus on the deployment and operation of all available technologies for continuous communications, enhanced Situational Awareness and improved health and safety conditions for First Responders, according to a big fire scenario in a Wildland Urban Interface zone (WUI). An important issue will be examined during the second pilot study. Unobstructed communication in the form of the flow of information is severely affected during a crisis; the flow of information between the wider public, from the first responders to the public and vice versa. Call centers are flooded with requests and communication is compromised or it breaks down on many occasions, which affects in turn – the effort to build a common operations picture for all firstr esponders. At the same time the information that reaches from the public to the operational centers is scarce, especially in the aftermath of an incident. Understandably traffic if disrupted leaves no other way to observe but only via aerial means, in order to perform rapid area surveys. Results and work in progress will be presented in detail and challenges in relation to civil protection will be discussed.

Keywords: first responders, safety, civil protection, new technologies

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Authors: M. Gulam Kibria, Shourav Ahmed, Kais Zaman

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In system analysis, the information on the uncertain input variables cause uncertainty in the system responses. Different probabilistic approaches for uncertainty representation and propagation in such cases exist in the literature. Different uncertainty representation approaches result in different outputs. Some of the approaches might result in a better estimation of system response than the other approaches. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (MUQC) has posed challenges about uncertainty quantification. Subproblem A, the uncertainty characterization subproblem, of the challenge posed is addressed in this study. In this subproblem, the challenge is to gather knowledge about unknown model inputs which have inherent aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in them with responses (output) of the given computational model. We use two different methodologies to approach the problem. In the first methodology we use sampling-based uncertainty propagation with first order error analysis. In the other approach we place emphasis on the use of Percentile-Based Optimization (PBO). The NASA Langley MUQC’s subproblem A is developed in such a way that both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties need to be managed. The challenge problem classifies each uncertain parameter as belonging to one the following three types: (i) An aleatory uncertainty modeled as a random variable. It has a fixed functional form and known coefficients. This uncertainty cannot be reduced. (ii) An epistemic uncertainty modeled as a fixed but poorly known physical quantity that lies within a given interval. This uncertainty is reducible. (iii) A parameter might be aleatory but sufficient data might not be available to adequately model it as a single random variable. For example, the parameters of a normal variable, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, might not be precisely known but could be assumed to lie within some intervals. It results in a distributional p-box having the physical parameter with an aleatory uncertainty, but the parameters prescribing its mathematical model are subjected to epistemic uncertainties. Each of the parameters of the random variable is an unknown element of a known interval. This uncertainty is reducible. From the study, it is observed that due to practical limitations or computational expense, the sampling is not exhaustive in sampling-based methodology. That is why the sampling-based methodology has high probability of underestimating the output bounds. Therefore, an optimization-based strategy to convert uncertainty described by interval data into a probabilistic framework is necessary. This is achieved in this study by using PBO.

Keywords: aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, first order error analysis, uncertainty quantification, percentile-based optimization

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Authors: E. Poupelloz, S. Gauffinet

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Ettringite Ca₆Al₂(SO₄)₃(OH)₁₂26H₂O is one of the major hydrates formed during cement hydration. Ettringite forms in Portland cement from the reaction between tricalcium aluminate Ca₃Al₂O₆ and calcium sulfate. Ettringite is also present in calcium sulfoaluminate cement in which it is the major hydrate, formed by the reaction between yeelimite Ca₄(AlO₂)₆SO₄ and calcium sulfate. About the formation of ettringite, numerous results are available in the literature even if some issues are still under discussion. However, almost all published work about ettringite was done on cementitious systems. Yet in cement, hydration reactions are very complex, the result of dissolution-precipitation processes and are submitted to various interactions. Understanding the formation process of a phase alone, here ettringite, is the first step to later understand the much more complex reactions happening in cement. This study is crucial for the comprehension of early cement hydration and physical behavior. Indeed formation of hydrates, in particular, ettringite, will have an influence on the rheological properties of the cement paste and on the need for admixtures. To make progress toward the understanding of existing phenomena, a specific study of nucleation and growth processes of ettringite was conducted. First ettringite nucleation was studied in ionic aqueous solutions, with controlled but different experimental conditions, as different supersaturation degrees (β), different pH or presence of exogenous ions. Through induction time measurements, interfacial ettringite crystals solution energies (γ) were determined. Growth of ettringite in supersaturated solutions was also studied through chain crystallization reactions. Specific BET surface area measurements and Scanning Electron Microscopy observations seemed to prove that growth process is favored over the nucleation process when ettringite crystals are initially present in a solution with a low supersaturation degree. The influence of stirring on ettringite formation was also investigated. Observation was made that intensity and nature of stirring have a high influence on the size of ettringite needles formed. Needle sizes vary from less than 10µm long depending on the stirring to almost 100µm long without any stirring. During all previously mentioned experiments, initially present ions are consumed to form ettringite in such a way that the supersaturation degree with regard to ettringite is decreasing over time. To avoid this phenomenon a device compensating the drop of ion concentrations by adding some more solutions, and therefore always have constant ionic concentrations, was used. This constant β recreates the conditions of the beginning of cement paste hydration, when the dissolution of solid reagents compensates the consumption of ions to form hydrates. This device allowed the determination of the ettringite precipitation rate as a function of the supersaturation degree β. Taking samples at different time during ettringite precipitation and doing BET measurements allowed the determination of the interfacial growth rate of ettringite in m²/s. This work will lead to a better understanding and control of ettringite formation alone and thus during cements hydration. This study will also ultimately define the impact of ettringite formation process on the rheology of cement pastes at early age, which is a crucial parameter from a practical point of view.

Keywords: cement hydration, ettringite, morphology of crystals, nucleation-growth process

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Authors: Giorgio Bertolazzi, Panayiotis Benos, Michele Tumminello, Claudia Coronnello

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MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that post-transcriptionally regulate the expression levels of messenger RNAs. MicroRNA regulation activity depends on the recognition of binding sites located on mRNA molecules. ComiR (Combinatorial miRNA targeting) is a user friendly web tool realized to predict the targets of a set of microRNAs, starting from their expression profile. ComiR incorporates miRNA expression in a thermodynamic binding model, and it associates each gene with the probability of being a target of a set of miRNAs. ComiR algorithms were trained with the information regarding binding sites in the 3’UTR region, by using a reliable dataset containing the targets of endogenously expressed microRNA in D. melanogaster S2 cells. This dataset was obtained by comparing the results from two different experimental approaches, i.e., inhibition, and immunoprecipitation of the AGO1 protein; this protein is a component of the microRNA induced silencing complex. In this work, we tested whether including coding region binding sites in the ComiR algorithm improves the performance of the tool in predicting microRNA targets. We focused the analysis on the D. melanogaster species and updated the ComiR underlying database with the currently available releases of mRNA and microRNA sequences. As a result, we find that the ComiR algorithm trained with the information related to the coding regions is more efficient in predicting the microRNA targets, with respect to the algorithm trained with 3’utr information. On the other hand, we show that 3’utr based predictions can be seen as complementary to the coding region based predictions, which suggests that both predictions, from 3'UTR and coding regions, should be considered in a comprehensive analysis. Furthermore, we observed that the lists of targets obtained by analyzing data from one experimental approach only, that is, inhibition or immunoprecipitation of AGO1, are not reliable enough to test the performance of our microRNA target prediction algorithm. Further analysis will be conducted to investigate the effectiveness of the tool with data from other species, provided that validated datasets, as obtained from the comparison of RISC proteins inhibition and immunoprecipitation experiments, will be available for the same samples. Finally, we propose to upgrade the existing ComiR web-tool by including the coding region based trained model, available together with the 3’UTR based one.

Keywords: AGO1, coding region, Drosophila melanogaster, microRNA target prediction

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Authors: Maria de Fátima Lambert

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Following previous studies about Writing and Seeing, this paper focuses on the aesthetic assumptions within the concept of Winter Journey (Voyage d’Hiver/Winterreise) both in Georges Perec’s Saga and the Oulipo Group vis-à-vis with the creations by William Kentridge and Michael Borremans. The aesthetic and artistic connections are widespread. Nevertheless, we can identify common poetical principles shared by these different authors, not only according to the notion of ekphrasis, but also following the procedures of contemporary creation in literature and visual arts. The analysis of the ongoing process of the French writers as individuals and as group and the visual artists’ acting might contribute for another crossed definition of contemporary conception. The same title/theme was a challenge and a goal for them. Let’s wonder how deep the concept encouraged them and which symbolic upbringings were directing their poetical achievements. The idea of an inner journey became the main point, and got “over” and “across” a shared path worth to be followed. The authors were chosen due to the resilient contents of their visual and written images, and looking for the reasons that might had driven their conceptual basis to be. In Pérec’s “Winter Journey” as for the following fictions by Jacques Roubaud, Hervé le Tellier, Jacques Jouet and Hugo Vernier (that emerges from Perec’s fiction and becomes a real author) powerful aesthetic and enigmatic reflections grow connected with a poetic (and aesthetic) understanding of Walkscapes. They might be assumed as ironic fictions and poetical drifts. Outstanding from different logics, the overwhelming impact of Winterreise Lied by Schubert after Wilhelm Müller’s poems is a major reference in present authorship creations. Both Perec and Oulipo’s author’s texts are powerfully ekphrastic, although we should not forget they follow goals, frameworks and identities. When acting as a reader, they induce powerful imageries - cinematic or cinematographic - that flow in our minds. It was well-matched with William Kentridge animated video Winter Journey (2014) and the creations (sharing the same title) of Michael Borremans (2014) for the KlaraFestival, Bozar, Cité de la musique, in Belgium. Both were taken by the foremost Schubert’s Winterreise. Several metaphors fulfil new Winter Journeys (or Travels) that were achieved in contemporary art and literature, as it once succeeded in the 19^th century. Maybe the contemporary authors and artists were compelled by the consciousness of nothingness, although outstanding different aesthetics and ontological sources. The unbearable knowledge of the road’s end, and also the urge of fulfilling the void might be a common element to all of them. As Schopenhauer once wrote, after all, Art is the only human subjective power that we can call upon in life. These newer aesthetic meanings, released from these winter journeys are surely open to wider approaches that might happen in other poetic makings to be.

Keywords: Aesthetic, voyage D’Hiver, George Perec & Oulipo, William Kentridge & Michael Borreman, Schubert's Winterreise

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Authors: Sohyoung Won, Heebal Kim, Dajeong Lim

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Genomic prediction is an effective way to measure the abilities of livestock for breeding based on genomic estimated breeding values, statistically predicted values from genotype data using best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). Using haplotypes, clusters of linked single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), as markers instead of individual SNPs can improve the reliability of genomic prediction since the probability of a quantitative trait loci to be in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) with markers is higher. To efficiently use haplotypes in genomic prediction, finding optimal ways to define haplotypes is needed. In this study, 770K SNP chip data was collected from Hanwoo (Korean cattle) population consisted of 2506 cattle. Haplotypes were first defined in three different ways using 770K SNP chip data: haplotypes were defined based on 1) length of haplotypes (bp), 2) the number of SNPs, and 3) k-medoids clustering by LD. To compare the methods in parallel, haplotypes defined by all methods were set to have comparable sizes; in each method, haplotypes defined to have an average number of 5, 10, 20 or 50 SNPs were tested respectively. A modified GBLUP method using haplotype alleles as predictor variables was implemented for testing the prediction reliability of each haplotype set. Also, conventional genomic BLUP (GBLUP) method, which uses individual SNPs were tested to evaluate the performance of the haplotype sets on genomic prediction. Carcass weight was used as the phenotype for testing. As a result, using haplotypes defined by all three methods showed increased reliability compared to conventional GBLUP. There were not many differences in the reliability between different haplotype defining methods. The reliability of genomic prediction was highest when the average number of SNPs per haplotype was 20 in all three methods, implying that haplotypes including around 20 SNPs can be optimal to use as markers for genomic prediction. When the number of alleles generated by each haplotype defining methods was compared, clustering by LD generated the least number of alleles. Using haplotype alleles for genomic prediction showed better performance, suggesting improved accuracy in genomic selection. The number of predictor variables was decreased when the LD-based method was used while all three haplotype defining methods showed similar performances. This suggests that defining haplotypes based on LD can reduce computational costs and allows efficient prediction. Finding optimal ways to define haplotypes and using the haplotype alleles as markers can provide improved performance and efficiency in genomic prediction.

Keywords: best linear unbiased predictor, genomic prediction, haplotype, linkage disequilibrium

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Authors: Amritee Bora, B. S. Mipun

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Land degradation is often used to describe the land environmental phenomena that reduce land’s original productivity both qualitatively and quantitatively. The study of land degradation vulnerability primarily deals with “Environmentally Sensitive Areas” (ESA) and the amount of topsoil loss due to erosion. In many studies, it is observed that the assessment of the existing status of land degradation is used to represent the vulnerability. Moreover, it is also noticed that in most studies, the primary emphasis of land degradation vulnerability is to assess its sensitivity to soil erosion only. However, the concept of land degradation vulnerability can have different objectives depending upon the perspective of the study. It shows the extent to which changes in land use land cover can imprint their effect on the land. In other words, it represents the susceptibility of a piece of land to degrade its productive quality permanently or in the long run. It is also important to mention that the vulnerability of land degradation is not a single factor outcome. It is a probability assessment to evaluate the status of land degradation and needs to consider both biophysical and human induce parameters. To avoid the complexity of the previous models in this regard, the present study has emphasized on to generate a simplified model to assess the land degradation vulnerability in terms of its current human population pressure, land use practices, and existing biophysical conditions. It is a “Mixed-Method” termed as the land degradation vulnerability index (LDVi). It was originally inspired by the MEDALUS model (Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use), 1999, and Farazadeh’s 2007 revised version of it. It has followed the guidelines of Space Application Center, Ahmedabad / Indian Space Research Organization for land degradation vulnerability. The model integrates the climatic index (Ci), vegetation index (Vi), erosion index (Ei), land utilization index (Li), population pressure index (Pi), and cover management index (CMi) by giving equal weightage to each parameter. The final result shows that the very high vulnerable zone primarily indicates three (3) prominent circumstances; land under continuous population pressure, high concentration of human settlement, and high amount of topsoil loss due to surface runoff within the study sites. As all the parameters of the model are amalgamated with equal weightage further with the help of regression analysis, the LDVi model also provides a strong grasp of each parameter and how far they are competent to trigger the land degradation process.

Keywords: population pressure, land utilization, soil erosion, land degradation vulnerability

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Authors: Idit Kalisher, Israel Luski

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One result of the growing dynamicity of labor markets in recent decades is a wider scope of employment mobility – i.e., transitions between employers, either within or between careers. Employment mobility decisions are primarily affected by the current employment status of the worker, which is reflected in wage and tenure. Using 34,328 observations from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLS79), which were derived from the USA population between 1990 and 2012, this paper aims to investigate the effects of wage and tenure over employment mobility choices, and additionally to examine the effects of other personal characteristics, individual labor market characteristics and macroeconomic factors. The estimation strategy was designed to address two challenges that arise from the combination of the model and the data: (a) endogeneity of the wage and the tenure in the choice equation; and (b) unobserved heterogeneity, as the data of this research is longitudinal. To address (a), estimation was performed using two-stage limited dependent variable procedure (2SLDV); and to address (b), the second stage was estimated using femlogit – an implementation of the multinomial logit model with fixed effects. Among workers who have experienced at least one turnover, the wage was found to have a main effect on career turnover likelihood of all workers, whereas the wage effect on job turnover likelihood was found to be dependent on individual characteristics. The wage was found to negatively affect the turnover likelihood and the effect was found to vary across wage level: high-wage workers were more affected compared to low-wage workers. Tenure was found to have a main positive effect on both turnover types’ likelihoods, though the effect was moderated by the wage. The findings also reveal that as their wage increases, women are more likely to turnover than men, and academically educated workers are more likely to turnover within careers. Minorities were found to be as likely as Caucasians to turnover post wage-increase, but less likely to turnover with each additional tenure year. The wage and the tenure effects were found to vary also between careers. The difference in attitude towards money, labor market opportunities and risk aversion could explain these findings. Additionally, the likelihood of a turnover was found to be affected by previous unemployment spells, age, and other labor market and personal characteristics. The results of this research could assist policymakers as well as business owners and employers. The former may be able to encourage women and older workers’ employment by considering the effects of gender and age on the probability of a turnover, and the latter may be able to assess their employees’ likelihood of a turnover by considering the effects of their personal characteristics.

Keywords: employment mobility, endogeneity, femlogit, turnover

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Authors: Echo Wang, Andrew Li

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Transparency could be defined as the voluntary release of information by institutions that is relevant to their own evaluation. Transparency based on information disclosure is recognised to be vital for the Third Sector, as civil society organisations are under pressure to become more transparent to answer the call for accountability. The growing importance of social enterprises as hybrid organisations emerging from the nexus of the public, the private and the Third Sector makes their transparency a topic worth exploring. However, transparency for social enterprises has not yet been studied: as a new form of organisation that combines non-profit missions with commercial means, it is unclear to both the practical and the academic world if the shift in operational logics from non-profit motives to for-profit pursuits has significantly altered their transparency. This is especially so in China, where informational governance and practices of information disclosure by local governments, industries and civil society are notably different from other countries. This study investigates the transparency-seeking behaviour of social enterprises in Greater China to understand what factors at the organisational level may affect their transparency, measured by their willingness to disclose financial information. We make use of the Survey on the Models and Development Status of Social Enterprises in the Greater China Region (MDSSGCR) conducted in 2015-2016. The sample consists of more than 300 social enterprises from the Mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan. While most respondents have provided complete answers to most of the questions, there is tremendous variation in the respondents’ demonstrated level of transparency in answering those questions related to the financial aspects of their organisations, such as total revenue, net profit, source of revenue and expense. This has led to a lot of missing data on such variables. In this study, we take missing data as data. Specifically, we use missing values as a proxy for an organisation’s level of transparency. Our dependent variables are constructed from missing data on total revenue, net profit, source of revenue and cost breakdown. In addition, we also take into consideration the quality of answers in coding the dependent variables. For example, to be coded as being transparent, an organization must report the sources of at least 50% of its revenue. We have four groups of predictors of transparency, namely nature of organization, decision making body, funding channel and field of concentration. Furthermore, we control for an organisation’s stage of development, self-identity and region. The results show that social enterprises that are at their later stages of organisational development and are funded by financial means are significantly more transparent than others. There is also some evidence that social enterprises located in the Northeast region in China are less transparent than those located in other regions probably because of local political economy features. On the other hand, the nature of the organisation, the decision-making body and field of concentration do not systematically affect the level of transparency. This study provides in-depth empirical insights into the information disclosure behaviour of social enterprises under specific social context. It does not only reveal important characteristics of Third Sector development in China, but also contributes to the general understanding of hybrid institutions.

Keywords: China, information transparency, organisational behaviour, social enterprise

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Authors: S. M. Islam, Wasi Uddin, Nazmun Nahar

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Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, faces two contrasting problems; excess of water during monsoon season and scarcity of water during dry season. The first problem occurs due to rapid urbanization and mismanagement of rainwater whereas the second problem is related to climate change and increasing urban population. Inadequate drainage system also worsens the overall water management scenario in Dhaka city. Dhaka has a population density of 115,000 people per square miles. This results in a 2.5 billion liter water demand every day, 87% of which is fulfilled by groundwater. Over dependency on groundwater has resulted in more than 200 feet drop in the last 50 years and continues to decline at a rate of 9 feet per year. Considering the gravity of the problem, it is high time that practitioners, academicians and policymakers consider different water management practices and look into their cumulative impacts at different scales. The present study assesses different rainwater management options for North South University of Bangladesh and recommends the most feasible and sustainable rainwater management measure. North South University currently accommodates over 20,000 students, faculty members, and administrative staffs. To fulfill the water demand, there are two deep tube wells, which bring up approximately 150,000 liter of water every hour. The annual water demand is approximately 103 million liters. Dhaka receives approximately 1800 mm of rainfall every year. For the current study, two academic buildings and one administrative building consist of 4924 square meters of rooftop area was selected as catchment area. Both rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge options were analyzed separately. It was estimated that by rainwater harvesting, annually a total of 7.2 million liters of water can be reused which is approximately 7% of the total annual water usage. In the monsoon, rainwater harvesting fulfills 12.2% of the monthly water demand. The approximate cost of the rainwater harvesting system is estimated to be 940975 bdt (USD 11500). For direct groundwater recharge, a system comprises of one de-siltation tank, two recharge tanks and one siltation tank were designed that requires approximately 532788 bdt (USD 6500). The payback period is approximately 7 years and 4 months for the groundwater recharge system whereas the payback period for rainwater harvesting option is approximately 12 years and 4 months. Based on the cost-benefit analysis, the present study finds the groundwater recharge system to be most suitable for North South University. The present study also demonstrates that if only one institution like North South University can add up a substantial amount of water to the aquifer, bringing other institutions in the network has the potential to create significant cumulative impact on replenishing the declining groundwater level of Dhaka city. As an additional benefit, it also prevents large amount of water being discharged into the storm sewers which results in severe flooding in Dhaka city during monsoon.

Keywords: Dhaka, groundwater, harvesting, rainwater, recharge

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Authors: C. Romero, R. Ortega, P. Sánchez-Camacho, P. Aguilar, V. Segur, J. Ruiz, G. Gutiérrez

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Introduction: Breast cancer is a leading cause of death in CLM. (2.8% of all deaths in women and 13,8% of deaths from tumors in womens). It is the most tumor incidence in CLM region with 26.1% from all tumours, except nonmelanoma skin (Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Volume X, IARC). Cancer registries are a good information source to estimate cancer incidence, however the data are usually available with a lag which makes difficult their use for health managers. By contrast, mortality and survival statistics have less delay. In order to serve for resource planning and responding to this problem, a method is presented to estimate the incidence of mortality and survival data. Objectives: To estimate the incidence of breast cancer by age group in CLM in the period 1991-2013. Comparing the data obtained from the model with current incidence data. Sources: Annual number of women by single ages (National Statistics Institute). Annual number of deaths by all causes and breast cancer. (Mortality Registry CLM). The Breast cancer relative survival probability. (EUROCARE, Spanish registries data). Methods: A Weibull Parametric survival model from EUROCARE data is obtained. From the model of survival, the population and population data, Mortality and Incidence Analysis MODel (MIAMOD) regression model is obtained to estimate the incidence of cancer by age (1991-2013). Results: The resulting model is: Ix,t = Logit [const + age1*x + age2*x2 + coh1*(t – x) + coh2*(t-x)2] Where: Ix,t is the incidence at age x in the period (year) t; the value of the parameter estimates is: const (constant term in the model) = -7.03; age1 = 3.31; age2 = -1.10; coh1 = 0.61 and coh2 = -0.12. It is estimated that in 1991 were diagnosed in CLM 662 cases of breast cancer (81.51 per 100,000 women). An estimated 1,152 cases (112.41 per 100,000 women) were diagnosed in 2013, representing an increase of 40.7% in gross incidence rate (1.9% per year). The annual average increases in incidence by age were: 2.07% in women aged 25-44 years, 1.01% (45-54 years), 1.11% (55-64 years) and 1.24% (65-74 years). Cancer registries in Spain that send data to IARC declared 2003-2007 the average annual incidence rate of 98.6 cases per 100,000 women. Our model can obtain an incidence of 100.7 cases per 100,000 women. Conclusions: A sharp and steady increase in the incidence of breast cancer in the period 1991-2013 is observed. The increase was seen in all age groups considered, although it seems more pronounced in young women (25-44 years). With this method you can get a good estimation of the incidence.

Keywords: breast cancer, incidence, cancer registries, castilla-la mancha

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Authors: S. R. Dehghani, G. F. Naterer, Y. S. Muzychka

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Wave-impact sea spray creates many droplets which form a spray cloud traveling over marine objects same as marine vessels and offshore structures. In cold climates such as Arctic reigns, sea spray icing, which is ice accretion on cold substrates, is strongly dependent on the wave-impact sea spray. The rate of cooling of droplets affects the process of icing that can yield to dry or wet ice accretion. Trajectories of droplets determine the potential places for ice accretion. Combining two models of trajectories and heat transfer for droplets can predict the risk of ice accretion reasonably. The majority of the cooling of droplets is because of droplet evaporations. In this study, a combined model using trajectory and heat transfer evaluate the situation of a cloud of spray from the generation to impingement. The model uses some known geometry and initial information from the previous case studies. The 3D model is solved numerically using a standard numerical scheme. Droplets are generated in various size ranges from 7 mm to 0.07 mm which is a suggested range for sea spray icing. The initial temperature of droplets is considered to be the sea water temperature. Wind velocities are assumed same as that of the field observations. Evaluations are conducted using some important heading angles and wind velocities. The characteristic of size-velocity dependence is used to establish a relation between initial sizes and velocities of droplets. Time intervals are chosen properly to maintain a stable and fast numerical solution. A statistical process is conducted to evaluate the probability of expected occurrences. The medium size droplets can reach the highest heights. Very small and very large droplets are limited to lower heights. Results show that higher initial velocities create the most expanded cloud of spray. Wind velocities affect the extent of the spray cloud. The rate of droplet cooling at the start of spray formation is higher than the rest of the process. This is because of higher relative velocities and also higher temperature differences. The amount of water delivery and overall temperature for some sample surfaces over a marine vessel are calculated. Comparing results and some field observations show that the model works accurately. This model is suggested as a primary model for ice accretion on marine vessels.

Keywords: evaporation, sea spray, marine icing, numerical solution, trajectory

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Authors: Nkeiruka Elsie Ezomike, Chinwe L. Onyekonwu, Anthony N. Ikefuna, Bede C. Ibe

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Superficial fungal infections (SFIs) are one of the common cutaneous infections that affect children worldwide. They may lead to school absenteeism or school drop-out and hence setback in the education of the child. Community-based studies in any locality are good reflections of the health conditions within that area. There is a dearth of information in the literature about SFI among primary school children in Enugu. This study aimed to determine the clinicomycological pattern of SFIs among primary school children in rural and urban communities in Enugu. This was a comparative descriptive cross-sectional study among primary school children in Awgu (rural) and Enugu North (urban) Local Government Areas (LGAs). Subjects' selection was made over 6 months using a multi-stage sampling method. Information such as age, sex, parental education, and occupation were collected using questionnaires. Socioeconomic classes of the children were determined using the classification proposed by Oyedeji et al. The samples were collected from subjects with SFIs. Potassium hydroxide tests were done on the samples. The samples that tested positive were cultured for SFI by inoculating onto Sabouraud's dextrose chloramphenicol actidione agar. The characteristics of the isolates were identified according to their morphological features using Mycology Online, Atlas 2000, and Mycology Review 2003. Equal numbers of children were recruited from the two LGAs. A total of 1662 pupils were studied. The mean ages of the study subjects were 9.03 ± 2.10years in rural and 10.46 ± 2.33years in urban communities. The male to female ratio was 1.6:1 in rural and 1:1.1 in urban communities. The personal hygiene of the children was significantly related to the presence of SFIs. The overall prevalence of SFIs among the study participants was 45%. In the rural, the prevalence was 29.6%, and in the urban prevalence was 60.4%. The types of SFIs were tinea capitis (the commonest), tinea corporis, pityriasis Versicolor, tinea unguium, and tinea manuum with prevalence rates lower in rural than urban communities. The clinical patterns were gray patch and black dot type of non-inflammatory tinea capitis, kerion, tinea corporis with trunk and limb distributions, and pityriasis Versicolor with face, trunk and limb distributions. Gray patch was the most frequent pattern of SFI seen in rural and urban communities. Black dot type was more frequent in rural than urban communities. SFIs were frequent among children aged 5 to 8years in rural and 9 to 12 years in urban communities. SFIs were commoner in males in the rural, whereas female dominance was observed in the urban. SFIs were more in children from low social class and those with poor hygiene. Trichophyton tonsurans and Trichophyton soudanese were the common mycological isolates in rural and urban communities, respectively. In conclusion, SFIs were less prevalent in rural than in urban communities. Trichophyton species were the most common fungal isolates in the communities. Health education of mothers and their children on SFI and good personal hygiene will reduce the incidence of SFIs.

Keywords: clinicomycological pattern, communities, primary school children, superficial fungal infections

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Authors: Jing (Claire) LI

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More than two decades from 2000 to 2020 of economic reforms have brought China unprecedented economic growth. There is an urgent call of research towards corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the context of China because while China continues to develop into a global trading market, it suffers from various serious problems relating to CSR. This study analyses the factors affecting the adoption of CSR practices by Chinese listed companies. The author proposes a new framework of factors of CSR adoption. Following common organisational factors and external factors in the literature (including organisational support, company size, shareholder pressures, and government support), this study introduces two additional factors, dynamic capability and regional culture. A survey questionnaire was conducted on the CSR adoption of Chinese listed companies in Shen Zhen and Shang Hai index from December 2019 to March 2020. The survey was conducted to collect data on the factors that affect the adoption of CSR. After collection of data, this study performed factor analysis to reduce the number of measurement items to several main factors. This procedure is to confirm the proposed framework and ensure the significant factors. Through analysis, this study identifies four grouped factors as determinants of the CSR adoption. The first factor loading includes dynamic capability and organisational support. The study finds that they are positively related to the first factor, so the first factor mainly reflects the capabilities of companies, which is one component in internal factors. In the second factor, measurement items of stakeholder pressures mainly are from regulatory bodies, customer and supplier, employees and community, and shareholders. In sum, they are positively related to the second factor and they reflect stakeholder pressures, which is one component of external factors. The third factor reflects organisational characteristics. Variables include company size and cultural score. Among these variables, company size is negatively related to the third factor. The resulted factor loading of the third factor implies that organisational factor is an important determinant of CSR adoption. Cultural consistency, the variable in the fourth factor, is positively related to the factor. It represents the difference between perception of managers and actual culture of the organisations in terms of cultural dimensions, which is one component in internal factors. It implies that regional culture is an important factor of CSR adoption. Overall, the results are consistent with previous literature. This study is of significance from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. First, from the significance of theoretical perspective, this research combines stakeholder theory, dynamic capability view of a firm, and neo-institutional theory in CSR research. Based on association of these three theories, this study introduces two new factors (dynamic capability and regional culture) to have a better framework for CSR adoption. Second, this study contributes to empirical literature of CSR in the context of China. Extant Chinese companies lack recognition of the importance of CSR practices adoption. This study built a framework and may help companies to design resource allocation strategies and evaluate future CSR and management practices in an early stage.

Keywords: China, corporate social responsibility, CSR adoption, dynamic capability, regional culture

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Authors: Mohamed Abdelkareem

Abstract:

Remote sensing data contributed on predicting the prospective areas of water resources. Integration of microwave and multispectral data along with climatic, hydrologic, and geological data has been used here. In this article, Sentinel-2, Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array Type L‐band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data were utilized to identify the geological, hydrologic and structural features of Wadi Asyuti which represents a defunct tributary of the Nile basin, in the eastern Sahara. The image transformation of Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 data allowed characterizing the different varieties of rock units. Integration of microwave remotely-sensed data and GIS techniques provided information on physical characteristics of catchments and rainfall zones that are of a crucial role for mapping groundwater prospective zones. A fused Landsat-8 OLI and ALOS/PALSAR data improved the structural elements that difficult to reveal using optical data. Lineament extraction and interpretation indicated that the area is clearly shaped by the NE-SW graben that is cut by NW-SE trend. Such structures allowed the accumulation of thick sediments in the downstream area. Processing of recent OLI data acquired on March 15, 2014, verified the flood potential maps and offered the opportunity to extract the extent of the flooding zone of the recent flash flood event (March 9, 2014), as well as revealed infiltration characteristics. Several layers including geology, slope, topography, drainage density, lineament density, soil characteristics, rainfall, and morphometric characteristics were combined after assigning a weight for each using a GIS-based knowledge-driven approach. The results revealed that the predicted groundwater potential zones (GPZs) can be arranged into six distinctive groups, depending on their probability for groundwater, namely very low, low, moderate, high very, high, and excellent. Field and well data validated the delineated zones.

Keywords: GIS, remote sensing, groundwater, Egypt

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Authors: Osama Moustafa Zayed

Abstract:

Aim of the work: To evaluate the effectiveness of venous glucose, levels of serum lactate and base deficit in polytraumatized patients as simple parameters to predict the mortality in these patients. Compared to the predictive value of Trauma and injury severity (TRISS) and Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV). Introduction: Trauma is a serious global health problem, accounting for approximately one in 10 deaths worldwide. Trauma accounts for 5 million deaths per year. Prediction of mortality in trauma patients is an important part of trauma care. Several trauma scores have been devised to predict injury severity and risk of mortality. The trauma and injury severity score (TRISS) was most common used. Regardless of the accuracy of trauma scores, is based on an anatomical description of every injury and cannot be assigned to the patients until a full diagnostic procedure has been performed. So we hypothesized that alterations in admission glucose, lactate levels and base deficit would be an early and easy rapid predictor of mortality. Patient and Method: a comparative cross-sectional study. 282 Polytraumatized patients attended to the Emergency Department(ED) of the Suez Canal university Hospital constituted. The period from 1/1/2012 to 1/4/2013 was included. Results: We found that the best cut off value of TRISS probability of survival score for prediction of mortality among poly-traumatized patients is = 90, with 77% sensitivity and 89% specificity using area under the ROC curve (0.89) at (95%CI). APACHE IV demonstrated 67% sensitivity and 95% specificity at 95% CI at cut off point 99. The best cutoff value of Random Blood Sugar (RBS) for prediction of mortality was>140 mg/dl, with 89%, sensitivity, 49% specificity. The best cut off value of base deficit for prediction of mortality was less than -5.6 with 64% sensitivity, 93% specificity. The best cutoff point of lactate for prediction of mortality was > 2.6 mmol/L with 92%, sensitivity, 42% specificity. Conclusion: According to our results from all evaluated predictors of mortality (laboratory and scores) and mortality based on the estimated cutoff values using ROC curves analysis, the highest risk of mortality was found using a cutoff value of 90 in TRISS score while with laboratory parameters the highest risk of mortality was with serum lactate > 2.6 . Although that all of the three parameter are accurate in predicting mortality in poly-traumatized patients and near with each other, as in serum lactate the area under the curve 0.82, in BD 0.79 and 0.77 in RBS.

Keywords: APACHE IV, emergency department, polytraumatized patients, serum lactate

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Authors: Christian Skowronski, Andrew Shanholtzer, Brent Yelton, Muayad Almahariq, Daniel J. Krauss

Abstract:

Prostate cancer has the third highest incidence rate and is the second leading cause of cancer death for men in the United States. Of the diagnostic tools available for intermediate-risk prostate cancer, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides superior soft tissue delineation serving as a valuable tool for both diagnosis and treatment planning. Currently, there is minimal data regarding the practical utility of MRI for evaluation of intermediate-risk prostate cancer. As such, the National Comprehensive Cancer Network’s guidelines indicate MRI as optional in intermediate-risk prostate cancer evaluation. This project aims to elucidate whether MRI affects radiation treatment decisions for intermediate-risk prostate cancer. This was a retrospective study evaluating 210 patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer, treated with definitive radiotherapy at our institution between 2019-2020. NCCN risk stratification criteria were used to define intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Patients were divided into two groups: those with pretreatment prostate MRI, and those without pretreatment prostate MRI. We compared the use of external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy alone, brachytherapy boost, and androgen depravation therapy between the two groups. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to match the two groups for age, comorbidity index, American Urologic Association symptoms index, pretreatment PSA, grade group, and percent core involvement on prostate biopsy. Wilcoxon Rank Sum and Chi-squared tests were used to compare continuous and categorical variables. Of the patients who met the study’s eligibility criteria, 133 had a prostate MRI and 77 did not. Following propensity matching, there were no differences between baseline characteristics between the two groups. There were no statistically significant differences in treatments pursued between the two groups: 42% vs 47% were treated with brachytherapy alone, 40% vs 42% were treated with external beam radiotherapy alone, 18% vs 12% were treated with external beam radiotherapy with a brachytherapy boost, and 24% vs 17% received androgen deprivation therapy in the non-MRI and MRI groups, respectively. This analysis suggests that pretreatment MRI does not significantly impact radiation therapy or androgen deprivation therapy decisions in patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Obtaining a pretreatment prostate MRI should be used judiciously and pursued only to answer a specific question, for which the answer is likely to impact treatment decision. Further follow up is needed to correlate MRI findings with their impacts on specific oncologic outcomes.

Keywords: magnetic resonance imaging, prostate cancer, definitive radiotherapy, gleason score 7

Procedia PDF Downloads 89