Search results for: Risk

Authors: Navah Z. Ratzon, Anat Keren, Shlomit Y. Greenberg

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Car accidents are a problem worldwide. Adolescents’ involvement in car accidents is higher in comparison to the overall driving population. Researchers estimate the risk of accidents among adolescents with symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) to be 1.2 to 4 times higher than that of their peers. Individuals with ADHD exhibit unique patterns of eye movements and attentional shifts that play an important role in driving. In addition, deficiencies in cognitive and executive functions among adolescents with ADHD is likely to put them at greater risk for car accidents. Fifteen adolescents with ADHD and 17 matched controls participated in the study. Individuals from both groups attended local public schools and did not have a driver’s license. Participants’ mean age was 16.1 (SD=.23). As part of the experiment, they all completed a driving simulation session, while their eye movements were monitored. Data were recorded by an eye tracker: The entire driving session was recorded, registering the tester’s exact gaze position directly on the screen. Eye movements and simulator data were analyzed using Matlab (Mathworks, USA). Participants’ cognitive and metacognitive abilities were evaluated as well. No correlation was found between saccade properties, regions of interest, and simulator performance in either group, although participants with ADHD allocated more visual scan time (25%, SD = .13%) to a smaller segment of dashboard area, whereas controls scanned the monitor more evenly (15%, SD = .05%). The visual scan pattern found among participants with ADHD indicates a distinct pattern of engagement-disengagement of spatial attention compared to that of non-ADHD participants as well as lower attention flexibility, which likely affects driving. Additionally the lower the results on the cognitive tests, the worse driving performance was. None of the participants had prior driving experience, yet participants with ADHD distinctly demonstrated difficulties in scanning their surroundings, which may impair driving. This stresses the need to consider intervention programs, before driving lessons begin, to help adolescents with ADHD acquire proper driving habits, avoid typical driving errors, and achieve safer driving.

Keywords: ADHD, attentional shifting, driving simulator, eye movements

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Authors: Sopit Tubtimhin, Chaliya Wamaloon, Anchalee Supattagorn

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Background and Significance: Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed and leading cause of cancer death among women. This study aims to determine factors potentially predicting recurrence and long-term survival after the first recurrence in surgically treated patients between postmenopausal and younger women. Methods and Analysis: A retrospective cohort study was performed on 498 Thai women with invasive breast cancer, who had undergone mastectomy and been followed-up at Ubon Ratchathani Cancer Hospital, Thailand. We collected based on a systematic chart audit from medical records and pathology reports between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2011. The last follow-up time point for surviving patients was December 31, 2016. A Cox regression model was used to calculate hazard ratios of recurrence and death. Findings: The median age was 49 (SD ± 9.66) at the time of diagnosis, 47% was post-menopausal women ( ≥ 51years and not experienced any menstrual flow for a minimum of 12 months), and 53 % was younger women ( ˂ 51 years and have menstrual period). Median time from the diagnosis to the last follow-up or death was 10.81 [95% CI = 9.53-12.07] years in younger cases and 8.20 [95% CI = 6.57-9.82] years in postmenopausal cases. The recurrence-free survival (RFS) for younger estimates at 1, 5 and 10 years of 95.0 %, 64.0% and 58.93% respectively, appeared slightly better than the 92.7%, 58.1% and 53.1% for postmenopausal women [HRadj = 1.25, 95% CI = 0.95-1.64]. Regarding overall survival (OS) for younger at 1, 5 and 10 years were 97.7%, 72.7 % and 52.7% respectively, for postmenopausal patients, OS at 1, 5 and 10 years were 95.7%, 70.0% and 44.5 respectively, there were no significant differences in survival [HRadj = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.94 -1.64]. Multivariate analysis identified five risk factors for negatively impacting on survival were triple negative [HR= 2.76, 95% CI = 1.47-5.19], Her2-enriched [HR = 2.59, 95% CI = 1.37-4.91], luminal B [HR = 2.29, 95 % CI=1.35-3.89], not free margin [HR = 1.98, 95%CI=1.00-3.96] and patients who received only adjuvant chemotherapy [HR= 3.75, 95% CI = 2.00-7.04]. Statistically significant risks of overall cancer recurrence were Her2-enriched [HR = 5.20, 95% CI = 2.75-9.80], triple negative [HR = 3.87, 95% CI = 1.98-7.59], luminal B [HR= 2.59, 95% CI = 1.48-4.54,] and patients who received only adjuvant chemotherapy [HR= 2.59, 95% CI = 1.48-5.66]. Discussion and Implications: Outcomes from this studies have shown that postmenopausal women have been associated with increased risk of recurrence and mortality. As the results, it provides useful information for planning the screening and treatment of early-stage breast cancer in the future.

Keywords: breast cancer, menopause status, recurrence-free survival, overall survival

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Authors: I. Hakki Eraslan, Birol Ozturk, Istemi Comlekci

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This paper begins by defining what is meant by “globalization” in finance and by identifying the sources of value-added in the internationally-competitive financial services sector origination, trading and distribution of debt and equity capital market instruments and their derivatives, foreign exchange trading and securities brokerage, management of market risk and credit risk, loan syndication and structured bank financings, corporate finance and advisory services, and asset management. These activities are considered in terms of a “value-chain” one that ultimately gives rise to the real economic gains attributable to financial-center operations. The research presents available evidence as to where the relevant value-added activities usually take place. It then examines the “centrifugal” and “centripetal” forces that determine the concentration or dispersal of value-added activity in financial intermediation, both interregionally and internationally. Next, the research assesses the factors, which appear to underlie the locational pattern of international financial centers that has evolved. In preparing this paper, also it is examined the current position and the main opportunities and challenges facing world major financial services sector, and attempted to lay out a potential vision and strategies. It is conducted extensive research, including many internal research materials and publications. It is also engaged closely with the academia, industry practitioners and regulators, and consulted market experts from major world financial centers. More than 60 in‐depth consultative sessions were conducted in the past two years which provided insightful suggestions and innovative ideas on how to further financial industry’s position as an international financial centre. The paper concludes with the outlook for the future pattern of financial centers in the global competitive environment. The ideas and advice gathered are condensed into this paper that recommends to the strategic decision leaders a vision and a strategy for financial services sector to move forward amid a highly competitive environment.

Keywords: financial centers, competitiveness, financial services industry, economics

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Authors: Boris Bajer, Andrea Havranova, Miroslav Vlcek, Richard Imrich, Adela Penesova

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Lifestyle interventions can prevent the deterioration of impaired glucose tolerance to manifest type 2 diabetes, and also prevent cardiovascular diseases, as it showed many studies (the Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study, Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), . the China Da Qing Diabetes Prevention Study, etc.) Therefore the aim of our study was to compare the effect of intensified lifestyle intervention on cardiometabolic parameters. Methods: It is an ongoing randomized interventional clinical study (NCT02325804) focused on the reduction of body weight/fat. Intervention: hypocaloric diet (30% restriction of calories) and physical activity 150 minutes/week. Before and after 8 weeks of intervention all patients underwent complete medical examination (measurement of physical fitness, resting metabolic rate (RMR), body composition analysis, oral glucose tolerance test, parameters of lipid metabolism, and other cardiometabolic risk factors. Results: So far 39 patients finished the intervention. The average reduction of body weight was 6,8 + 4,9 kg (0-15 kg; p=0,0006), accompanied with significant reduction of body fat percentage (p ≤ 0,0001), amount of fat mass (p=0,03), waist circumference (p=0.02). Amount of lean mass and RMR remained unchanged. Heart rate (p=0,02), systolic and diastolic blood pressure was reduced (p=0,01 p=0,02 resp.) as well as insulin sensitivity was improved. Lipid parameters also changed - cholesterol, LDL decreased (p=0,05, p=0,04 resp.), while triglycerides showed tendency to decrease (p=0,055). Liver function improved, alanine aminotrasnferase (ALT) were reduced (p=0,01). Physical fitness significantly improved (as measure VO2 max (p=0,02). Conclusion: Results of our study are in line with previous results about the beneficial effect of intensive lifestyle changes on the reduction of cardiometabolic risk factors and improvement of liver function. Supported by grants APVV 15-0228; VEGA 2/0161/16

Keywords: obesity, weight loss, diet lipids, blood pressure, liver enzymes

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Authors: Gokulan Vethanayakam, Daniel Aston

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Introduction: The ReSPECT process supports healthcare professionals when making patient-centered decisions in the event of an emergency. It has been widely adopted by the NHS in England and allows patients to express thoughts and wishes about treatments and outcomes that they consider acceptable. It includes (but is not limited to) cardiopulmonary resuscitation decisions. ReSPECT conversations should ideally occur prior to ICU admission and should be documented in the eight sections of the nationally-standardised ReSPECT form. This audit evaluated the use of ReSPECT on a busy cardiothoracic ICU in an NHS Trust where established policies advocating its use exist. Methods: This audit was a retrospective review of ReSPECT forms for a sample of high-risk patients admitted to ICU at the Royal Papworth Hospital between January 2021 and March 2022. Patients all received one of the following interventions: Veno-Venous Extra-Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation (VV-ECMO) for severe respiratory failure (retrieved via the national ECMO service); cardiac or pulmonary transplantation-related surgical procedures (including organ transplants and Ventricular Assist Device (VAD) implantation); or elective non-transplant cardiac surgery. The quality of documentation on ReSPECT forms was evaluated using national standards and a graded ranking tool devised by the authors which was used to assess narrative aspects of the forms. Quality was ranked as A (excellent) to D (poor). Results: Of 230 patients (74 VV-ECMO, 104 transplant, 52 elective non-transplant surgery), 43 (18.7%) had a ReSPECT form and only one (0.43%) patient had a ReSPECT form completed prior to ICU admission. Of the 43 forms completed, 38 (88.4%) were completed due to the commencement of End of Life (EoL) care. No non-transplant surgical patients included in the audit had a ReSPECT form. There was documentation of balance of care (section 4a), CPR status (section 4c), capacity assessment (section 5), and patient involvement in completing the form (section 6a) on all 43 forms. Of the 34 patients assessed as lacking capacity to make decisions, only 22 (64.7%) had reasons documented. Other sections were variably completed; 29 (67.4%) forms had relevant background information included to a good standard (section 2a). Clinical guidance for the patient (section 4b) was given in 25 (58.1%), of which 11 stated the rationale that underpinned it. Seven forms (16.3%) contained information in an inappropriate section. In a comparison of ReSPECT forms completed ahead of an EoL trigger with those completed when EoL care began, there was a higher number of entries in section 3 (considering patient’s values/fears) that were assessed at grades A-B in the former group (p = 0.014), suggesting higher quality. Similarly, forms from the transplant group contained higher quality information in section 3 than those from the VV-ECMO group (p = 0.0005). Conclusions: Utilisation of the ReSPECT process in high-risk patients is yet to be well-adopted in this trust. Teams who meet patients before hospital admission for transplant or high-risk surgery should be encouraged to engage with the ReSPECT process at this point in the patient's journey. VV-ECMO retrieval teams should consider ReSPECT conversations with patients’ relatives at the time of retrieval.

Keywords: audit, critical care, end of life, ICU, ReSPECT, resuscitation

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Authors: Aditya Sharma

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Profits earned from relative strength strategy of zero-cost portfolio i.e. taking long position in winner stocks and short position in loser stocks from recent past are termed as momentum profits. In recent times, there has been lot of controversy and concern about sources of momentum profits, since the existence of these profits acts as an evidence of earning non-normal returns from publicly available information directly contradicting Efficient Market Hypothesis. Literature review reveals conflicting theories and differing evidences on sources of momentum profits. This paper aims at re-examining the sources of momentum profits in Indian capital markets. The study focuses on assessing the effect of fundamental as well as behavioral sources in order to understand the role of investor behavior in stock returns and suggest (if any) improvements to existing behavioral asset pricing models. This Paper adopts calendar time methodology to calculate momentum profits for 6 different strategies with and without skipping a month between ranking and holding period. For each J/K strategy, under this methodology, at the beginning of each month t stocks are ranked on past j month’s average returns and sorted in descending order. Stocks in upper decile are termed winners and bottom decile as losers. After ranking long and short positions are taken in winner and loser stocks respectively and both portfolios are held for next k months, in such manner that at any given point of time we have K overlapping long and short portfolios each, ranked from t-1 month to t-K month. At the end of period, returns of both long and short portfolios are calculated by taking equally weighted average across all months. Long minus short returns (LMS) are momentum profits for each strategy. Post testing for momentum profits, to study the role market risk plays in momentum profits, CAPM and Fama French three factor model adjusted LMS returns are calculated. In the final phase of studying sources, decomposing methodology has been used for breaking up the profits into unconditional means, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations. This methodology is unbiased, can be used with the decile-based methodology and helps to test the effect of behavioral and fundamental sources altogether. From all the analysis, it was found that momentum profits do exist in Indian capital markets with market risk playing little role in defining them. Also, it was observed that though momentum profits have multiple sources (risk, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations), cross-serial correlations plays a major role in defining these profits. The study revealed that momentum profits do have multiple sources however, cross-serial correlations i.e. the effect of returns of other stocks play a major role. This means that in addition to studying the investors` reactions to the information of the same firm it is also important to study how they react to the information of other firms. The analysis confirms that investor behavior does play an important role in stock returns and incorporating both the aspects of investors’ reactions in behavioral asset pricing models help make then better.

Keywords: investor behavior, momentum effect, sources of momentum, stock returns

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Authors: Kottaridi Klimentia, Demopoulos Vasilis, Sidiropoulos Anastasios, Ihara Diego, Nikolaidis Vasileios, Antonopoulos Dimitrios

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Aflatoxins are highly poisonous and carcinogenic compounds produced by species of the genus Aspergillus spp. that can infect a variety of agricultural foods, including dried figs. Biological and environmental factors, such as population, pathogenicity, and aflatoxinogenic capacity of the strains, topography, soil, and climate parameters of the fig orchards, are believed to have a strong effect on aflatoxin levels. Existing methods for aflatoxin detection and measurement, such as high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), can provide accurate results, but the procedures are usually time-consuming, sample-destructive, and expensive. Predicting aflatoxin levels prior to crop harvest is useful for minimizing the health and financial impact of a contaminated crop. Consequently, there is interest in developing a tool that predicts aflatoxin levels based on topography and soil analysis data of fig orchards. This paper describes the development of a risk assessment tool for the contamination of aflatoxin on dried figs, based on the location and altitude of the fig orchards, the population of the fungus Aspergillus spp. in the soil, and soil parameters such as pH, saturation percentage (SP), electrical conductivity (EC), organic matter, particle size analysis (sand, silt, clay), the concentration of the exchangeable cations (Ca, Mg, K, Na), extractable P, and trace of elements (B, Fe, Mn, Zn and Cu), by employing machine learning methods. In particular, our proposed method integrates three machine learning techniques, i.e., dimensionality reduction on the original dataset (principal component analysis), metric learning (Mahalanobis metric for clustering), and k-nearest neighbors learning algorithm (KNN), into an enhanced model, with mean performance equal to 85% by terms of the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) between observed and predicted values.

Keywords: aflatoxins, Aspergillus spp., dried figs, k-nearest neighbors, machine learning, prediction

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Authors: Siti Rahmawati

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Indonesia has had long period of monetary economic crisis and it is followed by an upward trend in the price of fuel oil. This situation impacts all aspects of tuna fishermen community. For instance, the basic needs of fishing communities increase and the lower purchasing power then lead to economic and social instability as well as the health of fishermen household. To understand this AHP method is applied to acknowledge the model of tuna fisheries management priorities and cold chain marketing channel and the utilization levels that impact on human health. The study is designed as a development research with the number of 180 respondents. The data were analyzed by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The development of tuna fishery business can improve productivity of production with economic empowerment activities for coastal communities, improving the competitiveness of products, developing fish processing centers and provide internal capital for the development of optimal fishery business. From economic aspects, fishery business is more attracting because the benefit cost ratio of 2.86. This means that for 10 years, the economic life of this project can work well as B/C> 1 and therefore the rate of investment is economically viable. From the health aspects, tuna can reduce the risk of dying from heart disease by 50%, because tuna contain selenium in the human body. The consumption of 100 g of tuna meet 52.9% of the selenium in the body and activating the antioxidant enzyme glutathione peroxidaxe which can protect the body from free radicals and stimulate various cancers. The results of the analytic hierarchy process that the quality of tuna products is the top priority for export quality as well as quality control in order to compete in the global market. The implementation of the policy can increase the income of fishermen and reduce the poverty of fishermen households and have impact on the human health whose has high risk of disease.

Keywords: management of tuna, social, economic, health

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Authors: Joelle Fong

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Older persons are at greatest risk of becoming frail. As survival to the age of 80 and beyond continues to increase, the health and frailty of older Americans has garnered much recent attention among policy makers and healthcare administrators. This paper examines patterns in old-age frailty within a multistate actuarial model that characterizes the stochastic process of biological ageing. Using aggregate population-level U.S. mortality data, we implement a stochastic aging model to examine cohort trends and gender differences in frailty distributions for older Americans born 1865 – 1894. The stochastic ageing model, which draws from the fields of actuarial science and gerontology, is well-established in the literature. The implications for public health insurance programs are also discussed. Our results suggest that, on average, women tend to be frailer than men at older ages and reveal useful insights about the magnitude of the male-female differential at critical age points. Specifically, we note that the frailty statuses of males and females are actually quite comparable from ages 65 to 80. Beyond age 80, however, the frailty levels start to diverge considerably implying that women are moving quicker into worse states of health than men. Tracking average frailty by gender over 30 successive birth cohorts, we also find that frailty levels for both genders follow a distinct peak-and-trough pattern. For instance, frailty among 85-year old American survivors increased in years 1954-1963, decreased in years 1964-1971, and again started to increase in years 1972-1979. A number of factors may have accounted for these cohort differences including differences in cohort life histories, differences in disease prevalence, differences in lifestyle and behavior, differential access to medical advances, as well as changes in environmental risk factors over time. We conclude with a discussion on the implications of our findings on spending for long-term care programs within the broader health insurance system.

Keywords: actuarial modeling, cohort analysis, frail elderly, health

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Authors: Hsin-Hsin Chang, Jann-Tay Wang, Wang-Huei Sheng

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Background: Hospital-associated infections (HAIs) have significant medical and social resource consumption. In view of medical technology change rapidly and the prolonged average life expectancy, the patients' chances of receiving invasive medical devices have also increased. As well as the potential disease of the patients, the aging, and immune dysfunction makes the disease more serious, raising the risk of HAIs. In our adult intensive care units, catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTIs) have an average of 4.6% in 2014, which is much higher than that of the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). Therefore, we started the intervention of CAUTI bundle care. Methods: This 3-year intervention was conducted in adults’ intensive care units (ICUs) during January 2015 to December 2017. The implementation of CAUTI bundle care in order to reduce invasive catheter-associated infections were built on evidence-based infection control measures. Prospective surveillance was performed on all patients admitted to hospital. The four major directions are 'Leader Engagement', 'Educate Personnel', 'Executive Multidisciplinary Teamwork', 'Innovation and Improvement of Tools'. Results: During the intervention period, there were 167,024 patient-days with a total of 508 episodes of CAUTIs in the entire adult ICUs identified. The incidence of CAUTIs in adult ICU was significantly decreased in the intervention period (from 2015 to 2017), from 4.6 to 3.6 per 1000 catheter days (p=0.05). Conclusion: The necessity for the implementation of CAUTI bundle care in the health care system plays an important role in the quality and policy of infection control. Multidisciplinary teamwork, education, a comprehensive checklist and from time to time audit feedback to improve healthcare workers’ compliance are the keys to success.

Keywords: bundle care, hospital-associated infections, leader engagement, multidisciplinary team work

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Authors: Werner Grommes

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The institute of occupational safety and health works in a working group for building a normative standard for illuminated warning vests and did a lot of experiments and measurements as basic work (cooperation). Intelligent car headlamps are able to suppress conventional warning vests with retro-reflective stripes as a disturbing light. Illuminated warning vests are therefore required for occupational safety. However, they must not pose any danger to the wearer or other persons. Here, the risks of the batteries (lithium types), the maximum brightness (glare) and possible interference radiation from the electronics on the implant carrier must be taken into account. The all-around visibility, as well as the required range, play an important role here. For the study, many luminance measurements of already commercially available LEDs and electroluminescent warning vests, as well as their electromagnetic interference fields and aspects of electrical safety, were measured. The results of this study showed that LED lighting is all far too bright and causes strong glare. The integrated controls with pulse modulation and switching regulators cause electromagnetic interference fields. Rechargeable lithium batteries can explode depending on the temperature range. Electroluminescence brings even more hazards. A test method was developed for the evaluation of visibility at distances of 50, 100, and 150 m, including the interview of test persons. A measuring method was developed for the detection of glare effects at close range with the assignment of the maximum permissible luminance. The electromagnetic interference fields were tested in the time and frequency ranges. A risk and hazard analysis were prepared for the use of lithium batteries. The range of values for luminance and risk analysis for lithium batteries were discussed in the standards working group. These will be integrated into the standard. This paper gives a brief overview of the topics of illuminated warning vests, which takes into account the risks and hazards for the vest wearer or others

Keywords: illuminated warning vest, optical tests and measurements, risks, hazards, optical glare effects, LED, E-light, electric luminescent

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Authors: Christopher S. Perez, Kendal C. Boyd

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global suicide rates have decreased in recent decades, rates in the United States have increased by 35.2 percent since 1999.American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/AN) have the highest rates of suicide in the U.S., with approximately 22 suicides per 100,000 people as of 2019. AI/AN have experienced significant historical trauma resulting in disproportionate rates of substance abuse and mental disorders. This literature review aimed to identify the demographic and clinical risk and protective factors for American Indians and Alaska Natives and provide an overview of suicidality in this population. The literature reflected varying definitions of suicidality depending on region, with some AI/AN tribesconceptualizing suicide through a spiritual framework, while others defined suicide in the biomedical sense. Furthermore, AI/AN adults and adolescents experienced higher rates of suicidal ideation when compared to other racial groups. Religious preference, sexual orientation, prior suicidal behavior, psychiatric admission, history of abuse, substance abuse, family history of mental illness, family history of substance abuse, family history of suicidal behaviors, domestic violence, and trauma were discussed as factors related to suicidality. Recommendations included increasing access to and utilization of mental health and medical services, culturally adapting suicide prevention programs to AI/AN communities, increasing support for LGBTQ+ AI/AN, providing opportunities that reinforce ethnic identity, and post-hospitalization follow-up care. The following databases were utilized to obtain peer-reviewed articles for this literature review: Complementary Index, Academic Search Premier, Science Direct, PsycInfo, Social Sciences Citation Index, PsycArticles, PubMed, EbscoHost, and PsycBooks. Articles that examined Native populations outside of the United States did not cite a primary source and/or were published before 1990 were excluded.

Keywords: alaska native, american indian, protective factors, risk factors, suicidality, suicide

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Authors: Mohamed Ghoz, Hala Alsabeh

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Context: Macroscopic Nose Macroneedling (MNM) is a new non-surgical procedure for lifting and tightening the nose. It is a tissue-non-invasive technique that uses a needle to create micro-injuries in the skin. These injuries stimulate the production of collagen and elastin, which results in the tightening and lifting of the skin. Research Aim: The research aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy and safety of MNM for the treatment of nasal deformities. Methodology A total of 100 patients with nasal deformities were included in this study. The patients were randomly assigned to either the MNM group or the control group. The MNM group received a single treatment of MNM, while the control group received no treatment. The patients were evaluated at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months after treatment. Findings: The results of this study showed that MNM was effective in improving the appearance of the nose in patients with nasal deformities. At 6 months after treatment, the patients in the MNM group had significantly improved nasal tip projection, nasal bridge height, and nasal width compared to the patients in the control group. The improvements in nasal appearance were maintained at 12 months after treatment. Theoretical Importance: The findings of this study provide support for the use of MNM as a safe and effective treatment for nasal deformities. MNM is a non-surgical procedure that is associated with minimal downtime and no risk of scarring. This makes it an attractive option for patients who are looking for a minimally invasive treatment for their nasal deformities. Data Collection: Data was collected from the patients using a variety of methods, including clinical assessments, photographic assessments, and patient-reported outcome measures. Analysis Procedures: The data was analyzed using a variety of statistical methods, including descriptive statistics, inferential statistics, and meta-analysis. Question Addressed: The research question addressed in this study was whether MNM is an effective and safe treatment for nasal deformities. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that MNM is an effective and safe treatment for nasal deformities. MNM is a non-surgical procedure that is associated with minimal downtime and no risk of scarring. This makes it an attractive option for patients who are looking for a minimally invasive treatment for their nasal deformities.

Keywords: nose, surgery, tie, suture

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Authors: Tuba Bagatarhan, Digdem Muge Siyez

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The aim of this research is to examine the effects of the psycho-education program on problem-solving skills of parents of high school students in the risk group for Internet addiction. A quasi-experimental design based on the pre-test, post-test and follow up test including experimental and control groups was used in the research. The independent variable of the study was the parent psycho-education program on problem-solving skills; the dependent variable was the problem-solving skills of parents. The research was conducted with the parents of 52 tenth-grade students in the risk group for Internet addiction from two high schools and volunteer to participate research on evaluation of the effectiveness of internet addiction prevention psycho-education program within the scope of another study. In this study, as 26 students were in the experimental groups in the first-high school, the parents of these 26 students were asked if they would like to participate in the parent psycho-education program on parental problem-solving skills. The parents were volunteer to participate in parent psycho-education program assigned experimental group (n=13), the other parents assigned control group 1 (n=13) in the first high school. The parents of the 26 students were randomly assigned to the control group 2 (n=13) and control group 3 (n=13) in the second high school. The data of the research was obtained via the problem behavior scale - coping - parents form and demographic questionnaire. Four-session parent psycho-education program to cope with Internet addiction and other problem behaviors in their children was applied to the experimental group. No program was applied to the control group 1, control group 2 and control group 3. In addition, an internet addiction prevention psycho-education program was applied to the children of the parents in experimental group and control group 1 within the scope of another study. In the analysis of the obtained data, two-factor variance analysis for repeated measures on one factor was used. Bonferroni post-hoc test was used to find the source of intergroup difference. According to the findings, the psycho-education program significantly increases parents’ problem-solving abilities, and the increase has continued throughout the follow-up test.

Keywords: internet addiction, parents, prevention, psyho-education

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Authors: Matthew Cameron, Stephen Yang, Latifa Al Kharusi, Adam Gosselin, Anissa Chirico, Pouya Gholipour Baradari

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Background: Iron supplementation has been evaluated in several randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for the potential to increase baseline hemoglobin and decrease the incidence of red blood cell (RBC) transfusion during cardiac surgery. This study's main objective was to evaluate the evidence for iron administration in cardiac surgery patients for its effect on the incidence of perioperative RBC transfusion. Methods: This systematic review protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020161927) on Dec. 19th, 2019, and was prepared as per the PRISMA guidelines. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, Web of Science databases, and Google Scholar were searched for RCTs evaluating perioperative iron administration in adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Each abstract was independently reviewed by two reviewers using predefined eligibility criteria. The primary outcome was perioperative RBC transfusion, with secondary outcomes of the number of RBC units transfused, change in ferritin level, reticulocyte count, hemoglobin, and adverse events, after iron administration. The risk of bias was assessed with the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias Tool, and the primary and secondary outcomes were analyzed with a random-effects model. Results: Out of 1556 citations reviewed, five studies (n = 554 patients) met the inclusion criteria. The use of iron demonstrated no difference in transfusion incidence (RR 0.86; 95% CI 0.65 to 1.13). There was a low heterogeneity between studies (I²=0%). The trial sequential analysis suggested an optimal information size of 1132 participants, which the accrued information size did not reach. Conclusion: The current literature does not support the routine use of iron supplementation before cardiac surgery; however, insufficient data is available to draw a definite conclusion. A critical knowledge gap has been identified, and more robust RCTs are required on this topic.

Keywords: cardiac surgery, iron, iron supplementation, perioperative medicine, meta-analysis, systematic review, randomized controlled trial

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Tong-Il Jang, Yong-Hee Lee

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For an operator in a nuclear power plant, human error is one of the most dreaded factors that may result in unexpected accidents. The possibility of human errors may be low, but the risk of them would be unimaginably enormous. Thus, for accident prevention, it is quite indispensable to analyze the influence of any factors which may raise the possibility of human errors. During the past decades, not a few research results showed that performance of human operators may vary over time due to lots of factors. Among them, stress is known to be an indirect factor that may cause human errors and result in mental illness. Until now, not a few assessment tools have been developed to assess stress level of human workers. However, it still is questionable to utilize them for human performance anticipation which is related with human error possibility, because they were mainly developed from the viewpoint of mental health rather than industrial safety. Stress level of a person may go up or down with work time. In that sense, if they would be applicable in the safety aspect, they should be able to assess the variation resulted from work time at least. Therefore, this study aimed to compare their applicability for safety purpose. More than 10 kinds of work stress tools were analyzed with reference to assessment items, assessment and analysis methods, and follow-up measures which are known to close related factors with work stress. The results showed that most tools mainly focused their weights on some common organizational factors such as demands, supports, and relationships, in sequence. Their weights were broadly similar. However, they failed to recommend practical solutions. Instead, they merely advised to set up overall counterplans in PDCA cycle or risk management activities which would be far from practical human error prevention. Thus, it was concluded that application of stress assessment tools mainly developed for mental health seemed to be impractical for safety purpose with respect to human performance anticipation, and that development of a new assessment tools would be inevitable if anyone wants to assess stress level in the aspect of human performance variation and accident prevention. As a consequence, as practical counterplans, this study proposed a new scheme for assessment of work stress level of a human operator that may vary over work time which is closely related with the possibility of human errors.

Keywords: human error, human performance, work stress, assessment tool, time-variant, accident prevention

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Authors: Allison Herlene Du Plessis, Dalena (R.M.) Van Rooyen, Wilma Ten Ham-Baloyi, Sihaam Jardien-Baboo

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Introduction: Women die in pregnancy and childbirth for five main reasons—severe bleeding, infections, unsafe abortions, hypertensive disorders (pre-eclampsia and eclampsia), and medical complications including cardiac disease, diabetes, or HIV/AIDS complicated by pregnancy. In 2015, WHO classified sepsis as the third highest cause for maternal mortalities in the world. Chorioamnionitis is a clinical syndrome of intrauterine infection during any stage of the pregnancy and it refers to ascending bacteria from the vaginal canal up into the uterus, causing infection. While the incidence rates for chorioamnionitis are not well documented, complications related to chorioamnionitis are well documented and midwives still struggle to identify this condition in time due to its complex nature. Few diagnostic methods are available in public health services, due to escalated laboratory costs. Often the affordable biomarkers, such as C-reactive protein CRP, full blood count (FBC) and WBC, have low significance in diagnosing chorioamnionitis. A lack of screening impacts on effective and timeous management of chorioamnionitis, and early identification and management of risks could help to prevent neonatal complications and reduce the subsequent series of morbidities and healthcare costs of infants who are health foci of perinatal infections. Objective: This integrative literature review provides an overview of current best research evidence on the screening of women at risk for chorioamnionitis. Design: An integrative literature review was conducted using a systematic electronic literature search through EBSCOhost, Cochrane Online, Wiley Online, PubMed, Scopus and Google. Guidelines, research studies, and reports in English related to chorioamnionitis from 2008 up until 2020 were included in the study. Findings: After critical appraisal, 31 articles were included. More than one third (67%) of the literature included ranked on the three highest levels of evidence (Level I, II and III). Data extracted regarding screening for chorioamnionitis was synthesized into four themes, namely: screening by clinical signs and symptoms, screening by causative factors of chorioamnionitis, screening of obstetric history, and essential biomarkers to diagnose chorioamnionitis. Key conclusions: There are factors that can be used by midwives to identify women at risk for chorioamnionitis. However, there are a paucity of established sociological, epidemiological and behavioral factors to screen this population. Several biomarkers are available to diagnose chorioamnionitis. Increased Interleukin-6 in amniotic fluid is the better indicator and strongest predictor of histological chorioamnionitis, whereas the available rapid matrix-metalloproteinase-8 test requires further testing. Maternal white blood cells count (WBC) has shown poor selectivity and sensitivity, and C-reactive protein (CRP) thresholds varied among studies and are not ideal for conclusive diagnosis of subclinical chorioamnionitis. Implications for practice: Screening of women at risk for chorioamnionitis by health care providers providing care for pregnant women, including midwives, is important for diagnosis and management before complications arise, particularly in resource-constraint settings.

Keywords: chorioamnionitis, guidelines, best evidence, screening, diagnosis, pregnant women

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Mustafa Gulsen, Nihan Pekyavas, Emine Atıcı

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Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of Kinesio taping on postural stability and in young soccer players. Subjects and Methods: 62 volunteered soccer players from Cayyolu Sports Club were included in our study. Permissions were also taken from the club directors about the inclusion of their players to our study. Soccer players between the age of 12 and 16 were included in our study. Players that had previous injury on lower extremities were excluded from the study. Players were randomly divided into two groups: Kinesio taping (KT) (n=31), and control group (n = 31). KT application including gastrocnemius and quadriceps femoris muscle facilitation techniques were applied to the first group. A rest time for 45 minutes was given in order to see the best effectiveness of the tape. The second group was set as the control group and no application was made. All participants were assessed before the application and 45 minutes later. In order to provide the double-blind design of the study, an experienced physiotherapist has done the assessments and another experienced physiotherapist has done the taping. The patients were randomly assigned to one of the two groups using an online random allocation software program. Postural stability was assessed by using Tetrax Interactive Balance System. Thermographic assessment was done by using FLIR E5 (FLIR Systems AB, Sweden) thermal camera in order to see which muscles have the most thermal activity while maintaining postural stability. Results: Statistically significant differences were found in all assessment parameters in both Kinesio Taping and control groups (all p<0.05) except thermal imaging of dominant gastrocnemius muscle results (p=0.668) (Table 1). In comparison of the two groups, statistically significant differences were found in all parameters (all p<0.05). Conclusion: In this study, we investigated the effects of Kinesio taping on postural stability in young soccer players and found that KT application on Quadriceps and Gastrocnemius muscles may have decreased the risk of falling more than the control group. According to thermal imaging assessments, both Quadriceps and Gastrocnemius muscles may be active in maintaining postural stability but in KT group, the temperature of these muscles are higher which leads us to think that they are more activated.

Keywords: Kinesio taping, fall risk, muscle temperature, postural stability

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Authors: Mona Isazad Mashinchi, Davood Roshan Sangachin, Francis J. Sullivan, Dietrich Rebholz-Schuhmann

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Background: Decision-making processes are nowadays driven by data, data analytics and Business Intelligence (BI). BI as a software platform can provide a wide variety of capabilities such as organization memory, information integration, insight creation and presentation capabilities. Visualizing data through dashboards is one of the BI solutions (for a variety of areas) which helps managers in the decision making processes to expose the most informative information at a glance. In the healthcare domain to date, dashboard presentations are more frequently used to track performance related metrics and less frequently used to monitor those quality parameters which relate directly to patient outcomes. Providing effective and timely care for patients and improving the health outcome are highly dependent on presenting and visualizing data and information. Objective: In this research, the focus is on the presentation capabilities of BI to design a dashboard for prostate cancer (PC) data that allows better decision making for the patients, the hospital and the healthcare system related to a cancer dataset. The aim of this research is to customize a retrospective PC dataset in a dashboard interface to give a better understanding of data in the categories (risk factors, treatment approaches, disease control and side effects) which matter most to patients as well as other stakeholders. By presenting the outcome in the dashboard we address one of the major targets of a value-based health care (VBHC) delivery model which is measuring the value and presenting the outcome to different actors in HC industry (such as patients and doctors) for a better decision making. Method: For visualizing the stored data to users, three interactive dashboards based on the PC dataset have been developed (using the Tableau Software) to provide better views to the risk factors, treatment approaches, and side effects. Results: Many benefits derived from interactive graphs and tables in dashboards which helped to easily visualize and see the patients at risk, better understanding the relationship between patient's status after treatment and their initial status before treatment, or to choose better decision about treatments with fewer side effects regarding patient status and etc. Conclusions: Building a well-designed and informative dashboard is related to three important factors including; the users, goals and the data types. Dashboard's hierarchies, drilling, and graphical features can guide doctors to better navigate through information. The features of the interactive PC dashboard not only let doctors ask specific questions and filter the results based on the key performance indicators (KPI) such as: Gleason Grade, Patient's Age and Status, but may also help patients to better understand different treatment outcomes, such as side effects during the time, and have an active role in their treatment decisions. Currently, we are extending the results to the real-time interactive dashboard that users (either patients and doctors) can easily explore the data by choosing preferred attribute and data to make better near real-time decisions.

Keywords: business intelligence, dashboard, decision making, healthcare, prostate cancer, value-based healthcare

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Ashenafi Ayele, Shewit Haftu, Tesfalem Araya

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Background: “Post-psychotic depression”, “post schizophrenic depression”, and “secondary depression” have been used to describe the occurrence of depressive symptoms during the chronic phase of schizophrenia. Post-psychotic depression is the most common cause of death due to suicide in schizophrenia patients. Overall lifetime risk for patients with schizophrenia is 50% for suicide attempts and 9-13% lifetime risk for completed suicide and also it is associated with poor prognosis and poor quality of life. Objective: To assess determinant of post psychotic depression in schizophrenia patients ACSH and Mekelle General Hospital, Tigray Ethiopia 2019. Methods: An institutional based unmatched case control study was conducted among 69 cases and 138 controls with the ratio of case to control 1 ratio 2. The sample is calculated using epi-info 3.1 to assess the determinant factors of post-psychotic depression in schizophrenia patients. The cases were schizophrenia patients who have been diagnosed at least for more than one-year stable for two months, and the controls are any patients who are diagnosed as schizophrenia patients. Study subjects were selected using a consecutive sampling technique. The Calgary depression scale for schizophrenia self-administered questionnaire was used. Before the interview, it was assessed the client’s capacity to give intended information using a scale called the University of California, San Diego Brief Assessment of Capacity to Consent (UBACC). Bivariant and multiple Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine between the independent and dependent variables. The significant independent predictor was declared at 95% confidence interval and P-value of less than 0.05. Result: Females were affected by post psychotic depression with the (AOR=2.01, 95%CI: 1.003- 4.012, P= 0.49).Patients who have mild form of positive symptom of schizophrenia affected by post psychotic depression with (AOR =4.05, 95%CI: 1.888- 8.7.8, P=0001).Patients who have minimal form of negative symptom of schizophrenia are affected by post psychotic depression with (AOR =4.23, 95%CI: 1.081-17.092, P=.038). Conclusion: In this study, sex (female) and presence of positive and negative symptoms of schizophrenia were significantly associated. It is recommended that the post psychotic depression should be assessed in every schizophrenia patient to decrease the severity of illness, and to improve patient’s quality of life.

Keywords: determinants, post-psychotic depression, Mekelle city

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Authors: Bilge Aydın Er, Yuksel Ardalı

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In Ayvacık village, 80-90% of the population is engaged in agriculture. The pollution was adversely affecting the properties of agricultural origin of the lake. This study is to determine pollution caused by unwanted changes in the Suat Ugurlu Dam Lake has been launched to monitor. Yesilirmak basin is located in the proximal part of the Black Sea. Therefore it was exposed to impact many pollution. In this study, sediment samples from selected points along the lake was made on the analysis. This work was supported by the results of water analyzes. It is clear that urgent measures should be taken to the area of water management

Keywords: eutrophication, Black sea, lake, pollution

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Fedili Benamar, Belloulou Mohamed Lamine, Ouahes Hassane, Ghattas Samir

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Introduction: Perioperative blood loss is a frequent cause of complications in total hip replacement (THR). The present prospective study assessed the efficacy of tranexamic acid (Exacyl(®)) in reducing blood loss in primary THR. Hypothesis: Tranexamic acid reduces blood loss in THR. Material and method: -This is a prospective randomized study on the effectiveness of Exacyl (tranexamic acid) in total hip replacement surgery performed on a standardized technique between 2019 and September 2022. -It involved 154 patients, of which 84 received a single injection of Exacyl (group 1) at a dosage of 10 mg/kg over 20 minutes during the perioperative period. -All patients received postoperative thromboprophylaxis with enoxaparin 0.4 ml subcutaneously. -All patients were admitted to the post-interventional intensive care unit for a duration of 24 hours for monitoring and pain management as per the service protocol. Results: 154 patients, of which 84 received a single injection of Exacyl (group 1) and 70 patients patients who did not receive Exacyl perioperatively : (Group 2 ) The average age is 57 +/- 15 years The distribution by gender was nearly equal with 56% male and 44% female; "The distribution according to the ASA score was as follows: 20.2% ASA1, 82.3% ASA2, and 17.5% ASA3. "There was a significant difference in the average volume of intraoperative and postoperative bleeding during the 48 hours." The average bleeding volume for group 1 (received Exacyl) was 614 ml +/- 228, while the average bleeding volume for group 2 was 729 +/- 300, with a chi-square test of 6.35 and a p-value < 0.01, which is highly significant. The ANOVA test showed an F-statistic of 7.11 and a p-value of 0.008. A Bartlett test revealed a chi-square of 6.35 and a p-value < 0.01." "In Group 1 (patients who received Exacyl), 73% had bleeding less than 750 ml (Group A), and 26% had bleeding exceeding 750 ml (Group B). In Group 2 (patients who did not receive Exacyl perioperatively), 52% had bleeding less than 750 ml (Group A), and 47% had bleeding exceeding 750 ml (Group B). "Thus, the use of Exacyl reduced perioperative bleeding and specifically decreased the risk of severe bleeding exceeding 750 ml by 43% with a relative risk (RR) of 1.37 and a p-value < 0.01. The transfusion rate was 1.19% in the population of Group 1 (Exacyl), whereas it was 10% in the population of Group 2 (no Exacyl). It can be stated that the use of Exacyl resulted in a reduction in perioperative blood transfusion with an RR of 0.1 and a p-value of 0.02. Conclusions: The use of Exacyl significantly reduced perioperative bleeding in this type of surgery.

Keywords: acid tranexamic, blood loss, anesthesia, total hip replacement, surgery

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Authors: A. Papachristou, A. Ntikoudi, L. Makris, V. Saridakis

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Introduction: More than 10 million people are imprisoned or detained worldwide. Figures from 2011-12 show that prison inmates are more likely than the general population to suffer from chronic or infectious diseases, while most inmates are overweight or obese, and more than a quarter have high blood pressure. In 2011/12, the proportion of prisoners reporting diabetes or hyperglycemia was 899 per 10,000 prisoners, almost double the 2004 figure (483 per 10,000). It is important to ensure that this population has access to the same standard of care as people outside prisons, as access to services should be need-based. Diabetes is a public health problem associated with increased morbidity and mortality worldwide. According to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) in 2017, approximately 425 million people worldwide had diabetes. This number is expected to increase to 629 million by 2045. Poor management of diabetes in prisons can lead to poor blood sugar control and increase the risk of complications. Aim: The aim of this review was to systematically evaluate all the available literature on diabetes care in custodial settings. Methods: An extensive literature search was conducted through electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus and CINAHL) with the terms ‘custody’, ‘diabetes Mellitus, ‘detention centers and ‘chronic disease’. Articles published in English until September 2022, were included; no other criteria on publication dates were set. Results: Most of the studies mentioned a diabetes prevalence of approximately 10%, among other common chronic. Hypertension, obesity, smoking, sedentary lifestyle were the most common comorbidities associated with diabetes. Conclusion: Good glycemic control is fundamental to managing diabetes, and while many prisoners enter prison poorly, access to regular medication and meals, as well as exercise, offers the potential for improvement. Not being able to get help as quickly as in the past can be extremely stressful, and some prisoners may deliberately raise their blood sugar levels to avoid the risk of developing hypoglycemia, especially if they know they have had previous episodes of nocturnal hypoglycemia. Thus, appropriate training and resources are critical to providing quality care to incarcerated people with diabetes.

Keywords: custody, diabetes mellitus, detention centers, chronic disease

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Jamie Lee Harder

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In the context of rapidly changing social and economic circumstances in the developing world, this paper analyses access to public healthcare for poor people with disabilities in Cambodia. Like other countries of South East Asia, Cambodia is developing at rapid pace. The historical past of Cambodia, however, has set former social policy structures to zero. This past forces Cambodia and its citizens to implement new public health policies to align with the needs of social care, healthcare, and urban planning. In this context, the role of people with disabilities (PwDs) is crucial as new developments should and can take into consideration their specific needs from the beginning onwards. This paper is based on qualitative research with expert interviews and focus group discussions in Cambodia. During the field work it became clear that the identification tool for the poorest households (HHs) does not count disability as a financial risk to fall into poverty neither when becoming sick nor because of higher health expenditures and/or lower income because of the disability. The social risk group of poor PwDs faces several barriers in accessing public healthcare. The urbanization, the socio-economic health status, and opportunities for education; all influence social status and have an impact on the health situation of these individuals. Cambodia has various difficulties with providing access to people with disabilities, mostly due to barriers regarding finances, geography, quality of care, poor knowledge about their rights and negative social and cultural beliefs. Shortened budgets and the lack of prioritizations lead to the need for reorientation of local communities, international and national non-governmental organizations and social policy. The poorest HHs are identified with a questionnaire, the IDPoor program, for which the Ministry of Planning is responsible. The identified HHs receive an ‘Equity Card’ which provides access free of charge to public healthcare centers and hospitals among other benefits. The dataset usually does not include information about the disability status. Four focus group discussions (FGD) with 28 participants showed various barriers in accessing public healthcare. These barriers go far beyond a missing ramp to access the healthcare center. The contents of the FGDs were ratified and repeated during the expert interviews with the local Ministries, NGOs, international organizations and private persons working in the field. The participants of the FGDs faced and continue to face high discrimination, low capacity to work and earn an own income, dependency on others and less social competence in their lives. When discussing their health situation, we identified, a huge difference between those who are identified and hold an Equity Card and those who do not. Participants reported high costs without IDPoor identification, positive experiences when going to the health center in terms of attitude and treatment, low satisfaction with specific capacities for treatments, negative rumors, and discrimination with the consequence of fear to seek treatment in many cases. The problem of accessing public healthcare by risk groups can be adapted to situations in other countries.

Keywords: access, disability, health, inequality, Cambodia

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Mehrnoosh Abouzari, Shahrokh Sahraei

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Today, with the increase in quantity and quality and variety of crimes, the discussion of crime prevention has faced a serious challenge that human resources alone and with traditional methods will not be effective. One of the developments in the modern world is the presence of artificial intelligence in various fields, including criminal law. In fact, the use of artificial intelligence in criminal investigations and fighting crime is a necessity in today's world. The use of artificial intelligence is far beyond and even separate from other technologies in the struggle against crime. Second, its application in criminal science is different from the discussion of prevention and it comes to the prediction of crime. Crime prevention in terms of the three factors of the offender, the offender and the victim, following a change in the conditions of the three factors, based on the perception of the criminal being wise, and therefore increasing the cost and risk of crime for him in order to desist from delinquency or to make the victim aware of self-care and possibility of exposing him to danger or making it difficult to commit crimes. While the presence of artificial intelligence in the field of combating crime and social damage and dangers, like an all-seeing eye, regardless of time and place, it sees the future and predicts the occurrence of a possible crime, thus prevent the occurrence of crimes. The purpose of this article is to collect and analyze the studies conducted on the use of artificial intelligence in predicting and preventing crime. How capable is this technology in predicting crime and preventing it? The results have shown that the artificial intelligence technologies in use are capable of predicting and preventing crime and can find patterns in the data set. find large ones in a much more efficient way than humans. In crime prediction and prevention, the term artificial intelligence can be used to refer to the increasing use of technologies that apply algorithms to large sets of data to assist or replace police. The use of artificial intelligence in our debate is in predicting and preventing crime, including predicting the time and place of future criminal activities, effective identification of patterns and accurate prediction of future behavior through data mining, machine learning and deep learning, and data analysis, and also the use of neural networks. Because the knowledge of criminologists can provide insight into risk factors for criminal behavior, among other issues, computer scientists can match this knowledge with the datasets that artificial intelligence uses to inform them.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, criminology, crime, prevention, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Ouabo Emmanuel Romaric, Amougou Armathe

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Background and aim: The study of impacts of floods and landslides at a small scale, specifically in the urban areas of developing countries is done to provide tools and actors for a better management of risks in such areas, which are now being affected by climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the hydrometeorological vulnerabilities associated with flooding and urban landslides to propose adaptation measures. Methods: Climatic data analyses were done by calculation of indices of climate change within 50 years (1960-2012). Analyses of field data to determine causes, the level of risk and its consequences on the area of study was carried out using SPSS 18 software. The cartographic analysis and GIS were used to refine the work in space. Then, spatial and terrain analyses were carried out to determine the morphology of field in relation with floods and landslide, and the diffusion on the field. Results: The interannual changes in precipitation has highlighted the surplus years (21), the deficit years (24) and normal years (7). Barakat method bring out evolution of precipitation by jerks and jumps. Floods and landslides are correlated to high precipitation during surplus and normal years. Data field analyses show that populations are conscious (78%) of the risks with 74% of them exposed, but their capacities of adaptation is very low (51%). Floods are the main risk. The soils are classed as feralitic (80%), hydromorphic (15%) and raw mineral (5%). Slope variation (5% to 15%) of small hills and deep valley with anarchic construction favor flood and landslide during heavy precipitation. Mismanagement of waste produce blocks free circulation of river and accentuate floods. Conclusion: Vulnerability of population to hydrometeorological risks in Yaoundé VI is the combination of variation of parameters like precipitation, temperature due to climate change, and the bad planning of construction in urban areas. Because of lack of channels for water to circulate due to saturation of soils, the increase of heavy precipitation and mismanagement of waste, the result are floods and landslides which causes many damages on goods and people.

Keywords: climate change, floods, hydrometeorological, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 451

Authors: Christoph Ostermair

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We deal with the effect of correlation between prospects on human decision making under uncertainty as proposed by the comparatively new and promising model of “salience theory of choice under risk”. In this regard, we show that the theory entails the prediction that the inconsistency of choices, known as the Allais paradox, should not be an issue in the context of “real-life decision making”, which typically corresponds to situations of subjective uncertainty. The Allais paradox, probably the best-known anomaly regarding expected utility theory, would then essentially have no practical relevance. If, however, empiricism contradicts this prediction, salience theory might suffer a serious setback. Explanations of the model for variable human choice behavior are mostly the result of a particular mechanism that does not come to play under perfect correlation. Hence, if it turns out that correlation between prospects – as typically found in real-world applications – does not influence human decision making in the expected way, this might to a large extent cost the theory its explanatory power. The empirical literature regarding the Allais paradox under subjective uncertainty is so far rather moderate. Beyond that, the results are hard to maintain as an argument, as the presentation formats commonly employed, supposably have generated so-called event-splitting effects, thereby distorting subjects’ choice behavior. In our own incentivized experimental study, we control for such effects by means of two different choice settings. We find significant event-splitting effects in both settings, thereby supporting the suspicion that the so far existing empirical results related to Allais paradoxes under subjective uncertainty may not be able to answer the question at hand. Nevertheless, we find that the basic tendency behind the Allais paradox, which is a particular switch of the preference relation due to a modified common consequence, shared by two prospects, is still existent both under an event-splitting and a coalesced presentation format. Yet, the modal choice pattern is in line with the prediction of salience theory. As a consequence, the effect of correlation, as proposed by the model, might - if anything - only weaken the systematic choice pattern behind the Allais paradox.

Keywords: Allais paradox, common consequence effect, models of decision making under risk and uncertainty, salience theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Nazedah Ain Ibrahim, Mohamed Mansor Manan

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Treatment of suspected early onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) is essential. However, information regarding EONS pathogens may vary between regions. Global perspectives showed Group B Streptococcal (GBS) as the most common causative pathogens, but the widespread use of intrapartum antibiotics has changed the pathogens pattern towards gram negative microorganisms, especially E. coli. Objective of this study is to describe the pathogens isolated, to assess current treatment and risk of EONS. Records of 899 neonates born in three General Hospitals between 2009 until 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. The inclusion criteria were neonates with blood culture taken prior to empiric antibiotics administration and within 72 hours of life. Of the study group, a total of 734 (82%) cases had documented blood culture that met the inclusion criteria. Proven EONS (as confirmed by positive blood culture) was found in 22 (3%) neonates. The majority was isolated with gram positive organisms, 17 (2.3%). In addition, other common gram positive organism isolated were Coagulase negative staphylococci (7) followed by Bacillus sp. (5) and Streptococcus pneumonia (2), and only one case isolated with GBS, Streptococcus spp. and Enterococcus sp. Meanwhile, only five cases of gram negative organisms [Stenotropomonas (xantho) maltophi (1), Haemophilus influenza (1), Spingomonas paucimobilis (1), Enterobacter gergoviae (1) and E. coli (1)] were isolated. A total of 286 (39%) cases were exposed to intrapartum antibiotics and of those, 157 (21.4%) were administered prior to delivery. All grams positive and most gram negative organisms showed sensitivity to the tested antibiotics. Only two rare gram negative organisms showed total resistant. Male, surfactant, caesarean delivery and prolonged rapture of membrane >18hours were a possible risk of proven EONS. Although proven EONS remains uncommon in Malaysia, nonetheless, the effect of intrapartum antibiotics still required continuous surveillance. However, by analyzing isolated pathogens it can be used as treatment guidance in managing suspected EONS.

Keywords: early onset neonatal sepsis, neonates, pathogens, gram positive, gram negative

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Authors: Waganesh Zeleke, Abebaw Minaye

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This study examined the act, means, and purpose of human trafficking in the case of Ethiopian migrant returnees from the Middle East and South Africa. Using a questionnaire survey data was gathered from 1078 returnees. Twelve focus group discussions were used to solicit detailed experience of returnee about the process of their 'unsafe' immigration. Both quantitative and qualitative analysis results revealed that against the mainstream thinking of human trafficking means such as forcing, coercing, abducting or threatening, traffickers used 'victims’ free will' means by providing false promises to and capitalizing on the vulnerability of migrants. The migrants’ living condition including unemployment, ambitious view to change their life, and low level of risk perception were found to be risk factors which made them vulnerable and target of the brokers and smugglers who served as a catalyst in the process of their 'unsafe' migration. Equal to the traffickers/brokers/agency, the migrants’ family, friends and Ethiopian embassies contributed to the deplorable situation of migrant workers. 64.4% of the returnees reported that their migration is self-initiated, and 20% reported peer pressure and 13.8 percent reported family pressure, and it is only 1.8% who reported having been pushed by brokers. The findings revealed that 69.5% of the returnees do not know about the lifestyle and culture of the host community before their leave. In a similar vein, 50.9% of the returnees reported that they do not know about the nature of the work they are to do and their responsibilities. Further, 81% of the returnees indicated that the pre-migration training they received was not enough in equipping them with the required skill. Despite the returnees experiences of various forms of abuse and exploitation in the journey and at the destination they still have a positive attitude for migration (t=9.7 mean of 18.85 with a test value of 15). The returnees evaluated the support provided by sending agencies and Ethiopian embassies in the destination to be poor. 51.8% of the migrants do not know the details of the contract they signed during migration. Close to 70% of the returnees expressed that they had not got any legal support from stakeholders when they faced problems. What is more is that despite all these 27.9% of the returnees indicated re-immigrating as their plan. Based on these findings on the context and experience of Ethiopian migrant returnees, implications for training, policy, research, and intervention are discussed.

Keywords: trafficking, migrant, returnee, Ethiopia, experience, reconceptualizing

Procedia PDF Downloads 298

Authors: Iram Zahair, Tanith Rose, Oyinlola Oyebode, Stephen Clayton, Iman Ghosh, Michelle Maden, Ben Barr

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Background: Gastrointestinal infections exert a significant public health burden on UK healthcare services and the community. However, there are conflicting findings on where ethnic inequalities are likely to persist. This systematic review aimed to identify studies that ascertain differences in the incidence and prevalence of gastrointestinal infections within and between UK ethnic groups and explore possible explanations for heterogeneity observed within the literature. Methods: Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidance, a systematic review methodology was used. Medline, Web of Science, CINAHL Plus, and grey literature were searched from 1980 to 2021 for studies reporting an association between ethnicity and gastrointestinal infections in UK population samples. Two reviewers independently screened the articles and conducted quality appraisals; data extraction was undertaken by one reviewer and verified by two reviewers (PROSPERO CRD 42021240714). A narrative synthesis was undertaken to synthesise the study findings. Results: The searches identified 8134 studies; 13 met the inclusion criteria. 12 out of 13 studies found a difference in the prevalence of gastrointestinal infections between different ethnic groups. UK ethnic minorities, predominantly men and children of Asian ethnicity, had an increased risk of infection than the white British majority in 12 studies; the Pakistani ethnic group had a higher risk of infection in three out of 13 studies. Studies reported that age and sex confounded the relationship between ethnicity and gastrointestinal infections. At the same time, the country of birth, socioeconomic status, and geographical location of ethnic groups mediated this association and significantly explained the heterogeneity observed across the studies. Harvest plots supported the textual synthesis. Conclusion: This systematic review elucidates the lack of extensive UK quantitative evidence examining the association between ethnicity and gastrointestinal infections. Insights into gastrointestinal infections and ethnicity's association can help address policy actions to mitigate the inequalities identified within and between UK ethnic groups.

Keywords: ethnic and racial populations, public health, public health policy, systematic review

Procedia PDF Downloads 92