Search results for: relative risk

Authors: Stefano Scippo, Damiana Luzzi, Stefano Cuomo, Maria Ranieri

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Background: In response to the rise in natural disasters linked to climate change, numerous studies on Disaster Risk Reduction Education (DRRE) have emerged since the '90s, mainly using a didactic transmission-based approach. Effective DRRE should align with an interactive, experiential, and participatory educational model, which can be costly and risky. A potential solution is using simulations facilitated by eXtended Reality (XR). Research Question: This study aims to conduct a scoping review to explore educational methodologies that use XR to enhance knowledge among teachers, students, and citizens about environmental risks, natural disasters (including climate-related ones), and their management. Method: A search string of 66 keywords was formulated, spanning three domains: 1) education and target audience, 2) environment and natural hazards, and 3) technologies. On June 21st, 2023, the search string was used across five databases: EBSCOhost, IEEE Xplore, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. After deduplication and removing papers without abstracts, 2,152 abstracts (published between 2013 and 2023) were analyzed and 2,062 papers were excluded, followed by the exclusion of 56 papers after full-text scrutiny. Excluded studies focused on unrelated technologies, non-environmental risks, and lacked educational outcomes or accessible texts. Main Results: The 34 reviewed papers were analyzed for context, risk type, research methodology, learning objectives, XR technology use, outcomes, and educational affordances of XR. Notably, since 2016, there has been a rise in scientific publications, focusing mainly on seismic events (12 studies) and floods (9), with a significant contribution from Asia (18 publications), particularly Japan (7 studies). Methodologically, the studies were categorized into empirical (26) and non-empirical (8). Empirical studies involved user or expert validation of XR tools, while non-empirical studies included systematic reviews and theoretical proposals without experimental validation. Empirical studies were further classified into quantitative, qualitative, or mixed-method approaches. Six qualitative studies involved small groups of users or experts, while 20 quantitative or mixed-method studies used seven different research designs, with most (17) employing a quasi-experimental, one-group post-test design, focusing on XR technology usability over educational effectiveness. Non-experimental studies had methodological limitations, making their results hypothetical and in need of further empirical validation. Educationally, the learning objectives centered on knowledge and skills for surviving natural disaster emergencies. All studies recommended XR technologies for simulations or serious games but did not develop comprehensive educational frameworks around these tools. XR-based tools showed potential superiority over traditional methods in teaching risk and emergency management skills. However, conclusions were more valid in studies with experimental designs; otherwise, they remained hypothetical without empirical evidence. The educational affordances of XR, mainly user engagement, were confirmed by the studies. Authors’ Conclusions: The analyzed literature lacks specific educational frameworks for XR in DRRE, focusing mainly on survival knowledge and skills. There is a need to expand educational approaches to include uncertainty education, developing competencies that encompass knowledge, skills, and attitudes like risk perception.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction education, educational technologies, scoping review, XR technologies

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Authors: Tim Nedyalkov

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A business decision to move to the cloud brings fundamental changes in how an organization develops and delivers its Information Technology solutions. The accelerated pace of digital transformation across businesses and government agencies increases the reliance on cloud-based services. They are collecting, managing, and retaining large amounts of data in cloud environments makes information security and data privacy protection essential. It becomes even more important to understand what key factors drive successful cloud adoption following the commencement of the Privacy Amendment Notifiable Data Breaches (NDB) Act 2017 in Australia as the regulatory changes impact many organizations and industries. This quantitative correlational research investigated the governance, risk management, and compliance factors contributing to cloud security success. The factors influence the adoption of cloud computing within an organizational context after the commencement of the NDB scheme. The results and findings demonstrated that corporate information security policies, data storage location, management understanding of data governance responsibilities, and regular compliance assessments are the factors influencing cloud computing adoption. The research has implications for organizations, future researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and cloud computing providers to meet the rapidly changing regulatory and compliance requirements.

Keywords: cloud compliance, cloud security, data governance, privacy protection

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Authors: Nina N. Serdar, Jelena R. Pejović

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This paper presents seismic risk assessment of two bridge structure, based on the probabilistic performance-based seismic assessment methodology. Both investigated bridges are tree span continuous RC curved bridges with the difference in column shapes. First bridge (type A) has a wall-type pier and second (type B) has a two-column bent with circular columns. Bridges are designed according to European standards: EN 1991-2, EN1992-1-1 and EN 1998-2. Aim of the performed analysis is to compare seismic behavior of these two structures and to detect the influence of column shapes on the seismic response. Seismic risk assessment is carried out by obtaining demand fragility curves. Non-linear model was constructed and time-history analysis was performed using thirty five pairs of horizontal ground motions selected to match site specific hazard. In performance based analysis, peak column drift ratio (CDR) was selected as engineering demand parameter (EDP). For seismic intensity measure (IM) spectral displacement was selected. Demand fragility curves that give probability of exceedance of certain value for chosen EDP were constructed and based on them conclusions were made.

Keywords: RC curved bridge, demand fragility curve, wall type column, nonlinear time-history analysis, circular column

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Authors: Hassan S. Naeini

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Nowadays a lot of people are working in several sorts of industrial sectors in which there are some risk factors which threaten human being especially in developing countries. One of the main problems which effect on workers’ health refers to Ergonomics. Ergonomics as multidisciplinary science concerns workers’ health and safety in terms of somatic and mental concepts. Surely ergonomics interventions and improvement make a better condition for workers and change the quality of working life to better condition. In this study, one of the factories in Iran which is producing some kinds of small and medium size of refrigerators was chosen as the sample. The preliminary ergonomics observation of the mentioned factory showed that there are some risk factors in terms of ergonomics aspects, so an ergonomic intervention was defined, then some ergonomic assessment methods such as NMQ,OWAS, and Environmental Ergonomic Assessment were used. Also Anthropometric measurement was done. This study shows that there are some workstations and plants which suffer some degrees of ergonomic problems. Considering with the gathered data, illumination, noise control and workstation design in metal workstation are known as the priority actions. Some parts of the mentioned interventions are ongoing actions. it seems that the mentioned intervention and workstations design make a better condition for workers, because ergonomics make a safer and more sustainable environments for human being.

Keywords: anthropometry, ergonomics, health, NMQ, OWAS

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Authors: Monika Yadav

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The incorporation of a healthy lifestyle significantly contributes to the advancement of economic development. Urbanization, industrialization, and economic growth have enhanced living conditions, promoting sedentary behaviours among individuals with elevated socio-economic statuses. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased globally, along with the rise in living standards, posing a growing health risk. Overweight and obesity are known to be precursors to a range of modifiable and metabolic risk factors, contributing to the increase in lifestyle diseases. Unhealthy dietary choices and lifestyle practices primarily drive these diseases. Lifestyle diseases refer to chronic and non-communicable illnesses, encompassing conditions such as hypertension, heart disease, kidney disorders, infertility, polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOD), diabetes, respiratory diseases, and certain forms of cancer. This study examines the prevalence of lifestyle diseases among urban Indian women, explicitly differentiating between individuals with normal weight and those classified as obese. The main aim of this study is to investigate whether there is a correlation between a higher body mass index (BMI) in women and an increased vulnerability to lifestyle diseases when compared to women with a normal BMI. This research provides insights into the intricate relationship between lifestyle, health, and economic development within urban areas.

Keywords: urbanization, economic development, BMI, NCDs, urban, women, lifestyle practices

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Authors: Mark White

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The best practices for owners and urban planners to manage tsunami risk have evolved during the last fifty years, and related technical advances have created opportunities for them to obtain better performance than in earlier cataclysmic tsunami inundations. This basic pattern is illustrated at Hilo Bay, the waterfront area of Hilo, Hawaii, an urban seaport which faces the most severe tsunami hazard of the Hawaiian archipelago. Since April 1, 1946, Hilo Bay has endured tsunami waves with a maximum water height exceeding 2.5 meters following four severe earthquakes: Unimak Island (Mw 8.6, 6.1 m) in 1946; Valdiva (Mw 9.5, the largest earthquake of the 20th century, 10.6 m) in 1960; William Prince Sound (Mw 9.2, 3.8 m) in 1964; and Kalapana (Mw 7.7, the largest earthquake in Hawaii since 1868, 2.6 m) in 1975. Ignoring numerous smaller tsunamis during the same time frame, these four cataclysmic tsunamis have caused property losses in Hilo to exceed $1.25 billion and more than 150 deaths. It is reasonable to foresee another cataclysmic tsunami inundating the urban core of Hilo in the next 50 years, which, if unchecked, could cause additional deaths and losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Urban planners and individual owners are now in a position to reduce these losses in the next foreseeable tsunami that generates maximum water heights between 2.5 and 10 meters in Hilo Bay. Since 1946, Hilo planners and individual owners have already created buffer zones between the shoreline and its historic downtown area. As these stakeholders make inevitable improvements to the built environment along and adjacent to the shoreline, they should incorporate new methods for better managing the obvious tsunami risk at Hilo. At the planning level, new manmade land forms, such as tsunami parks and inundation reservoirs, should be developed. Individual owners should require their design professionals to include sacrificial seismic and tsunami fuses that will perform well in foreseeable severe events and that can be easily repaired in the immediate aftermath. These investments before the next cataclysmic tsunami at Hilo will yield substantial reductions in property losses and fatalities.

Keywords: hilo, tsunami parks, reservoirs, fuse systems, risk managment

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Authors: Todd Jackson

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In this randomized control trial, we tested the effectiveness of a peer-facilitated version of the Body Project (BP) intervention among body-dissatisfied young women in China. Participants were randomly assigned to a peer-facilitator BP condition (N = 94) versus an educational video minimal intervention control condition (N = 89). Questionnaire measures of two primary outcomes (i.e., disordered eating and body dissatisfaction) and six secondary outcomes (thin-ideal internalization, pressure to be thin, negative affect, body surveillance, body shame, body appreciation and interest in cosmetic surgery) were administered at a pre-treatment baseline, a post-treatment assessment, and at a 12-month follow-up. A series of 2 (Group) x 2 (Time) analyses of variance indicated women in the peer-facilitated BP condition reported significant improvements in primary outcome measures of disordered eating and body dissatisfaction compared to women in the educational video control condition following treatment and at the 12-month follow-up. Furthermore, women in the peer-facilitated BP condition reported significant improvements in measures of body surveillance, body shame and body appreciation) compared to educational video controls that extended to the 12-month follow-up. Finally, although women in the peer-facilitated BP condition showed significant post-treatment improvements in thin-ideal internalization, negative affect, perceived pressure to be thin, and interest in cosmetic surgery compared to video controls, these differences were no longer statistically significant at the 12-month follow-up. In conclusion, findings supported the overall effectiveness of a peer-facilitated group version of the BP as an intervention for reducing disordered eating and several associated risk factors among at-risk young women in China.

Keywords: body project, disordered eating, body dissatisfaction, risk factors, prevention, China

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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In the dynamic landscape of project management, scope changes are an inevitable reality that can significantly impact project performance. These changes, whether initiated by stakeholders, external factors, or internal project dynamics, can lead to cost overruns and schedule delays. Accurately predicting the consequences of these changes is crucial for effective project control and informed decision-making. This study aims to develop predictive models to estimate the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule using machine learning techniques. The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing detailed information on project tasks, including the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), task type, productivity rate, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, task dependencies, scope change magnitude, and scope change timing. Multiple machine learning models are developed and evaluated to predict the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. These models include Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost. The dataset is split into training and testing sets, and the models are trained using the preprocessed data. Cross-validation techniques are employed to assess the robustness and generalization ability of the models. The performance of the models is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared. Residual plots are generated to assess the goodness of fit and identify any patterns or outliers. Hyperparameter tuning is performed to optimize the XGBoost model and improve its predictive accuracy. The feature importance analysis reveals the relative significance of different project attributes in predicting the impact on cost and schedule. Key factors such as productivity rate, scope change magnitude, task dependencies, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, and specific WBS elements are identified as influential predictors. The study highlights the importance of considering both cost and schedule implications when managing scope changes. The developed predictive models provide project managers with a data-driven tool to proactively assess the potential impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. By leveraging these insights, project managers can make informed decisions, optimize resource allocation, and develop effective mitigation strategies. The findings of this research contribute to improved project planning, risk management, and overall project success.

Keywords: cost impact, machine learning, predictive modeling, schedule impact, scope changes

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Authors: Melese Wondatir

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Flooding ranks among the most destructive natural disasters, impacting millions of individuals globally and resulting in substantial economic, social, and environmental repercussions. This study's objective was to create a comprehensive model that assesses the Nile River basin's susceptibility to flood damage and improves existing flood risk management strategies. Authorities responsible for enacting policies and implementing measures may benefit from this research to acquire essential information about the flood, including its scope and susceptible areas. The identification of severe flood damage locations and efficient mitigation techniques were made possible by the use of geospatial data. Slope, elevation, distance from the river, drainage density, topographic witness index, rainfall intensity, distance from road, NDVI, soil type, and land use type were all used throughout the study to determine the vulnerability of flood damage. Ranking elements according to their significance in predicting flood damage risk was done using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and geospatial approaches. The analysis finds that the most important parameters determining the region's vulnerability are distance from the river, topographic witness index, rainfall, and elevation, respectively. The consistency ratio (CR) value obtained in this case is 0.000866 (<0.1), which signifies the acceptance of the derived weights. Furthermore, 10.84m2, 83331.14m2, 476987.15m2, 24247.29m2, and 15.83m2 of the region show varying degrees of vulnerability to flooding—very low, low, medium, high, and very high, respectively. Due to their close proximity to the river, the northern-western regions of the Nile River basin—especially those that are close to Sudanese cities like Khartoum—are more vulnerable to flood damage, according to the research findings. Furthermore, the AUC ROC curve demonstrates that the categorized vulnerability map achieves an accuracy rate of 91.0% based on 117 sample points. By putting into practice strategies to address the topographic witness index, rainfall patterns, elevation fluctuations, and distance from the river, vulnerable settlements in the area can be protected, and the impact of future flood occurrences can be greatly reduced. Furthermore, the research findings highlight the urgent requirement for infrastructure development and effective flood management strategies in the northern and western regions of the Nile River basin, particularly in proximity to major towns such as Khartoum. Overall, the study recommends prioritizing high-risk locations and developing a complete flood risk management plan based on the vulnerability map.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, Blue Nile Basin, geospatial techniques, flood vulnerability, multi-criteria decision making

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Authors: Elizabeth Behrens, Anne Timmermann, Alexander Yerkan, Joshua Thomas, Deborah Katz, Agne Paner, Melissa Larson, Shivi Jain, Seo-Hyun Kim, Celalettin Ustun, Ankur Varma, Parameswaran Venugopal, Jamile Shammo

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Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) causes persistent concern for poor outcomes in vulnerable populations. Patients with hematologic malignancies (HM) have been found to have higher COVID-19 case fatality rates compared to those without malignancy. While cytopenias are common in patients with HM, especially in those undergoing chemotherapy treatment, hemoglobin (Hgb) and platelet count have not yet been studied, to our best knowledge, as potential prognostic indicators for patients with HM and COVID-19. The goal of this study is to identify factors that may increase the risk of mortality in patients with HM and COVID-19. In this single-center, retrospective, observational study, 65 patients with HM and laboratory confirmed COVID-19 were identified between March 2020 and January 2021. Information on demographics, laboratory data the day of COVID-19 diagnosis, and prognosis was extracted from the electronic medical record (EMR), chart reviewed, and analyzed using the statistical software SAS version 9.4. Chi-square testing was used for categorical variable analyses. Risk factors associated with mortality were established by logistic regression models. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (37%), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (20%), and plasma cell dyscrasia (15%) were the most common HM. Higher Hgb level upon COVID-19 diagnosis was related to decreased mortality, odd ratio=0.704 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.511-0.969; P = .0263). Platelet count the day of COVID-19 diagnosis was lower in patients who ultimately died (mean 127 ± 72K/uL, n=10) compared to patients who survived (mean 197 ±92K/uL, n=55) (P=.0258). Female sex was related to decreased mortality, odd ratio=0.143 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.026-0.785; P = .0353). There was no mortality difference between the patients who were on treatment for HM the day of COVID-19 diagnosis compared to those who were not (P=1.000). Lower Hgb and male sex are independent risk factors associated with increased mortality of HM patients with COVID-19. Clinicians should be especially attentive to patients with HM and COVID-19 who present with cytopenias. Larger multi-center studies are urgently needed to further investigate the impact of anemia, thrombocytopenia, and demographics on outcomes of patients with hematologic malignancies diagnosed with COVID-19.

Keywords: anemia, COVID-19, hematologic malignancy, prognosis

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Authors: Haftay Abraha Tadesse, Dawit Gebreegziabiher Hagos, Atsebaha Gebrekidan Kahsay, Mahumd Abdulkader

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Background: Salmonella species and Escherichia coli (E. coli) are important foodborne pathogens affecting humans and animals. They are among the most important causes of infection that are associated with the consumption of contaminated food. This study was aimed to determine the prevalence, antimicrobial susceptibility patterns and associated risk factors for Salmonella species and E. coli in raw meat from butchery houses of Mekelle, Northern Ethiopia. Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted from January to December 2019. Socio-demographic data and risk factors were collected using a predesigned questionnaire. Meat samples were collected aseptically from the butchery houses and transported using icebox to Mekelle University, College of Veterinary Sciences for the isolation and identification of Salmonella species and E. coli. Antimicrobial susceptibility patterns were determined using Kirby disc diffusion method. Data obtained were cleaned and entered into Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 22 and logistic regression models with odds ratio were calculated. P-value < 0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Results: A total of 153 out of 384 (39.8%) of the meat specimens were found to be contaminated. The contamination of Salmonella species and E. coli were 15.6% (n=60) and 20.8%) (n=80), respectively. Mixed contamination (Salmonella species and E. coli) was observed in 13 (3.4 %) of the analyzed. Poor washing hands regularly (AOR = 8.37; 95% CI: 2.75-25.50) and not using gloves during meat handling (AOR=11. 28; 95% CI:(4.69 27.10) were associated with overall bacterial contamination. About 100% of the tested isolates were sensitive to ciprofloxacin, gentamicin, Co trimoxazole , sulphamethoxazole, ceftriaxone, and trimethoprim and ciprofloxacin, gentamicin, and norfloxacine of E. coli and Salmonella species, respectively, while the resistance of amoxyclav_amoxicillin and erythromycin were both isolated bacteria species. The overall multidrug resistance pattern for Salmonella and E. coli were 51.4% (n=19) and 31.8% (14), respectively. Conclusion: Of the 153 (153/384) contaminated raw meat, 60 (15.6%) and 80 (20.8%) were contaminated by Salmonella species and E. coli, respectively. Poor handwashing practice and not using glove during meat handling showed a significant association with bacterial contamination. Multidrug-resistant showed in Salmonella species, and E. coli were 19 (51.4%) and 14 (31.8%), respectively.

Keywords: antimicrobial susceptibility test, butchery houses, E. coli, raw meat, salmonella species

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Authors: Ella Abaev, Shany Segal, Miri Gabay

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Background: Choking is a blockage of airways that prevents efficient breathing and air flow to the lungs. Choking may be partial or full and is an emergency situation. Complete or prolonged choking leads to apnea, lack of oxygen in the tissues of the body and brain, and can cause death. There are three mechanisms of choking: obstruction of internal respiratory tracts by food or object aspiration, any material that blocks or covers external air passages, external pressure on the neck or trapping between objects. Children's airways are narrower than that of adults and therefore the risk of choking is greater, due to the aspiration of food and other foreign bodies into the lungs. In the Child Development Center at Safra Children’s Hospital, Tel Hashomer in Israel are treated infants, toddlers, and children aged 0-18 years with various developmental disabilities. Due to the increase in reports of ‘almost an event’ of choking in the past year and the serious consequences of choking event, it was decided to give an emphasis to the issue. Incidence and methods: The number of reports of ‘almost an event’ or a choking event was examined at the center during the years 2013-2018 and a thorough research work was conducted on the subject in order to build a prevention program. Findings: Between 2013 and 2018 the center reported about ten cases of ‘almost choking events’. In the middle of 2018 alone three cases of ‘almost an event’ were reported. Objective: Providing knowledge leads to awareness raise, change of perception, change in behavior and prevention. The center employs more than 130 staff members from various sectors so that it is the work of multi-professional teams to promote the quality and safety of the treatment. The familiarity of the staff with risk factors, prevention guidelines, identification of choking signs, and treatment are most important and significant in determining the outcome of a choking event. Conclusions and recommendations: After in-depth research work was carried out in cooperation with the Risk Management Unit on the subject of choking, which include a description of the definitions, mechanisms, risk factors, treatment methods and extensive recommendations for prevention (e.g. using treatment and stimulation accessories with standards association stamps and adjustment of the type of food and the way it is served to match to the child's age and the ability to swallow). The expected stages of development and emphasis on the population of children with special needs were taken into account. The research findings will be published by the staff and parents of the patients, professional publications, and lectures and there is an expectation to decrease the number of choking events in the next years.

Keywords: children with special needs, choking, educational system, prevention guidelines

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Authors: Mohsin Sadaqat, Hilal Anwar Butt

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Following the stock selection guidelines provided by the Sharia Board (SB), we segregate the firms listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) into Sharia Compliant (SC) and Non-Sharia Compliant (NSC) stocks. Subsequently, we form portfolios within each group based on market capitalization and volatility. The purpose is to analyze and compare the performance of these two groups as the SC stocks have lesser diversification opportunities due to SB restrictions. Using data ranging from January 2004 until June 2016, our results indicate that in most of the cases the risk-adjusted returns (alphas) for the returns differential between SC and NCS firms are positive. In addition, the SC firms in comparison to their counterparts in PSX provides excess returns that are hedged against the market, size, and value-based systematic risks factors. Overall, these results reconcile with one prevailing notion that the SC stocks that have lower financial leverage and higher investment in real assets are lesser exposed to market-based risks. Further, the SC firms that are more capitalized and less volatile, perform better than lower capitalized and higher volatile SC and NSC firms. To sum up our results, we do not find any substantial evidence for opportunity loss due to limited diversification opportunities in case of SC firms. To optimally utilize scarce resources, investors should consider SC firms as a candidate in portfolio construction.

Keywords: diversification, performance, sharia compliant stocks, risk adjusted returns

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Authors: Siddhant Yadav, Rylea Ranum, Hannah Alberts, Abdul Kalaiger, Brent Bauer, Ryan Hurt, Ann Vincent, Loren Toussaint, Sanjeev Nanda

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Background and significance: Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic pain disorder also characterized by chronic fatigue, morning stiffness, sleep, and cognitive symptoms, psychological disturbances (anxiety, depression), and is comorbid with multiple medical and psychiatric conditions. It has an incidence of 2-4% in the general population and is reported more commonly in women. Oxidative stress and inflammation are thought to contribute to pain in patients with FM, and the adoption of an antioxidant/anti-inflammatory diet has been suggested as a modality to alleviate symptoms. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the efficacy of specialized diets (ketogenic, gluten free, Mediterranean, and low carbohydrate) in improving FM symptoms. Methodology: A comprehensive search of the following databases from inception to July 15th, 2021, was conducted: Ovid MEDLINE and Epub ahead of print, in-process and other non-indexed citations and daily, Ovid Embase, Ovid EBM reviews, Cochrane central register of controlled trials, EBSCO host CINAHL with full text, Elsevier Scopus, website and citation index, web of science emerging sources citation and clinicaltrials.gov. We included randomized controlled trials, non-randomized experimental studies, cross-sectional studies, cohort studies, case series, and case reports in adults with fibromyalgia. The risk of bias was assessed with the Agency for Health Care Research and Quality designed, specific recommended criteria (AHRQ). Results: Thirteen studies were eligible for inclusion. This included a total of 761 participants. Twelve out of the 13 studies reported improvement in widespread body pain, joint stiffness, sleeping pattern, mood, and gastrointestinal symptoms, and one study reported no changes in symptomatology in patients with FM on specialized diets. None of the studies showed the worsening of symptoms associated with a specific diet. Most of the patient population was female, with the mean age at which fibromyalgia was diagnosed being 48.12 years. Improvement in symptoms was reported by the patient's adhering to a gluten-free diet, raw vegan diet, tryptophan- and magnesium-enriched Mediterranean diet, aspartame- and msg- elimination diet, and specifically a Khorasan wheat diet. Risk of bias assessment noted that 6 studies had a low risk of bias (5 clinical trials and 1 case series), four studies had a moderate risk of bias, and 3 had a high risk of bias. In many of the studies, the allocation of treatment (diets) was not adequately concealed, and the researchers did not rule out any potential impact from a concurrent intervention or an unintended exposure that might have biased the results. On the other hand, there was a low risk of attrition bias in all the trials; all were conducted with an intention-to-treat, and the inclusion/exclusion criteria, exposures/interventions, and primary outcomes were valid, reliable, and implemented consistently across all study participants. Concluding statement: Patients with fibromyalgia who followed specialized diets experienced a variable degree of improvement in their widespread body pain. Improvement was also seen in stiffness, fatigue, moods, sleeping patterns, and gastrointestinal symptoms. Additionally, the majority of the patients also reported improvement in overall quality of life.

Keywords: fibromyalgia, specialized diet, vegan, gluten free, Mediterranean, systematic review

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Authors: Dieudonne Uwizeye

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Introduction: Diarrhoea is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality among communities living in urban informal settlements of developing countries. It is assumed that mountainous environment introduces variations of the burden among residents of the same settlements. Design and Objective: A cross-sectional study was done in Kigali to explore the effect of mountainous informal settlements on diarrhoea risk variations. Data were collected among 1,152 households through household survey and transect walk to observe the status of sanitation. The outcome variable was the incidence of diarrhoea among household members of any age. The study used the most knowledgeable person in the household as the main respondent. Mostly this was the woman of the house as she was more likely to know the health status of every household member as she plays various roles: mother, wife, and head of the household among others. The analysis used cross tabulation and logistic regression analysis. Results: Results suggest that risks for diarrhoea vary depending on home location in the settlements. Diarrhoea risk increased as the distance from the road increased. The results of the logistic regression analysis indicate the adjusted odds ratio of 2.97 with 95% confidence interval being 1.35-6.55 and 3.50 adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval being 1.61-7.60 in level two and three respectively compared with level one. The status of sanitation within and around homes was also significantly associated with the increase of diarrhoea. Equally, it is indicated that stable households were less likely to have diarrhoea. The logistic regression analysis indicated the adjusted odds ratio of 0.45 with 95% confidence interval being 0.25-0.81. However, the study did not find evidence for a significant association between diarrhoea risks and household socioeconomic status in the multivariable model. It is assumed that environmental factors in mountainous settings prevailed. Households using the available public water sources were more likely to have diarrhoea in their households. Recommendation: The study recommends the provision and extension of infrastructure for improved water, drainage, sanitation and wastes management facilities. Equally, studies should be done to identify the level of contamination and potential origin of contaminants for water sources in the valleys to adequately control the risks for diarrhoea in mountainous urban settings.

Keywords: urbanisation, diarrhoea risk, mountainous environment, urban informal settlements in Rwanda

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Authors: Siti Fatimah Kader Maideen, Abdul Rashid, Nur Indah Ahmad

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Introduction: Indigenous people have an increased risk of contracting zoonotic infections due to their practices. Similarly, the aborigines in Peninsular Malaysia, the Orang Asli, have a higher risk too. This study aimed to empower the Jahai children on the prevention of zoonotic infections by implementing a health promotion intervention program. Methods: A non-experimental pre and post-test interventional study was conducted among the indigenous primary school children aged between nine and 12 years in Perak, Malaysia. A structured questionnaire was used to assess the pre-and post-knowledge and attitudes towards zoonotic infections and hand hygiene practice. This is followed by three sessions of the health promotion program. Ethical approval was obtained prior to the data collection. Data were analysed using SPSS software. Results: The knowledge on whether diseases can spread from animals to humans, transmission via saliva and faeces, types of organisms that can infect, and signs and symptoms increased significantly between pre and post. Significant improvements were observed in the attitude and practices too. Conclusion: The intervention program demonstrated improvement in the knowledge, attitude, and practice among the children. The continuous program needs to be conducted for a sustainable outcome.

Keywords: health promotion, zoonotic infections, aborigines, knowledge, practice

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Authors: Mia Françoise

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This report aims to develop a strategy for assisting short-term investors to benefit from the current economic climate in South Africa by utilizing technical analysis techniques and predictive analytics. As part of this research, value investing and technical analysis principles will be combined to maximize returns for South African investors while optimizing volatility. As an emerging market, South Africa offers many opportunities for high growth in sectors where other developed countries cannot grow at the same rate. Investing in South African companies with significant growth potential can be extremely rewarding. Although the risk involved is more significant in countries with less developed markets and infrastructure, there is more room for growth in these countries. According to recent research, the offshore market is expected to outperform the local market over the long term; however, short-term investments in the local market will likely be more profitable, as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is predicted to outperform the S&P500 over the short term. The instabilities in the economy contribute to increased market volatility, which can benefit investors if appropriately utilized. Price prediction and portfolio optimization comprise the two primary components of this methodology. As part of this process, statistics and other predictive modeling techniques will be used to predict the future performance of stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Following predictive data analysis, Modern Portfolio Theory, based on Markowitz's Mean-Variance Theorem, will be applied to optimize the allocation of assets within an investment portfolio. By combining different assets within an investment portfolio, this optimization method produces a portfolio with an optimal ratio of expected risk to expected return. This methodology aims to provide a short-term investment with a stock portfolio that offers the best risk-to-return profile for stocks listed on the JSE by combining price prediction and portfolio optimization.

Keywords: financial stocks, optimized asset allocation, prediction modelling, South Africa

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Authors: Braimah Joseph Odunayo, Jiju Gillariose

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This paper is aimed at developing a sampling plan that uses information from precedent and successive lots for lot disposition with a pretention that the life-time of a particular product assumes a Log-logistic distribution. A Two-pronged Truncated Deferred Sampling Plan (TTDSP) for Log-logistic distribution is proposed when the testing is truncated at a precise time. The best possible sample sizes are obtained under a given Maximum Allowable Percent Defective (MAPD), Test Suspension Ratios (TSR), and acceptance numbers (c). A formula for calculating the operating characteristics of the proposed plan is also developed. The operating characteristics and mean-ratio values were used to measure the performance of the plan. The findings of the study show that: Log-logistic distribution has a decreasing failure rate; furthermore, as mean-life ratio increase, the failure rate reduces; the sample size increase as the acceptance number, test suspension ratios and maximum allowable percent defective increases. The study concludes that the minimum sample sizes were smaller, which makes the plan a more economical plan to adopt when cost and time of production are costly and the experiment being destructive.

Keywords: consumers risk, mean life, minimum sample size, operating characteristics, producers risk

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Authors: Kaili Wang, Botao Zhang, Enming Zhang

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Background: Low back pain (LBP) is a common problem affecting athletes' training and competition. Although the association between a limited hip range of motion and prevalence of low back pain has been studied extensively, it has not been studied in table tennis. Aim: The main purposes of this study in table tennis players were (1) to investigate if there is a difference in hip internal rotation (HIR) and external rotation (HER) range of motion (ROM) between players with LBP and players without LBP and (2) to analyze the association between HIR and HER ROM and LBP. Methods: Forty-six table tennis players from the Chinese table tennis team were evaluated for passive maximum HIR and HER ROM. LBP was retrospectively recorded for the last 12 months before the date of ROM assessment by a physical therapist. The data were analyzed the difference in HIR and HER ROM between players with LBP and players without LBP by Mann-Whitney U test, and the association between the difference in HIR and HER ROM and LBP was analyzed via a binary logistic regression. Results: The 54% of players had developed LBP during the retrospective study period. Significant difference between LBP group and the asymptomatic group for HIR ROM (z=4.007, p<0.001) was observed. Difference between LBP group and asymptomatic group for HER ROM (z=1.117, p=0.264) was not significant. Players who had HIR ROM deficit had an increased risk of LBP compared with players without HIR ROM deficit (OR=5.344, 95%CI: 1.006-28.395, P=0.049). Conclusion: HIR ROM of a table tennis player with LBP was less than a table tennis player without LBP. Compared with player whose HIR ROM was normal, player who had HIR ROM deficit appeared to have a higher risk for LBP.

Keywords: assessment, injury prevention, low back pain, table tennis players

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Authors: Rahy Farooq, Maria Ahmad Khan, Ayesha Isani Majeed

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Objective: The main aim of this research is to assess the knowledge, attitude and practices of female nursing staff and nursing students regarding breast cancer, to provide a baseline for monitoring trends of breast cancer awareness in them. Background: Healthcare professionals are a direct source of information for the patients and the general public as a whole. It is, therefore, essential that the information they convey be accurate and helps in building additional awareness. However, clinical experience does not influence the knowledge, attitude and practices regarding breast cancer. Nurses, being the prime part of the healthcare professionals, play a significant role and hence, their awareness regarding this pressing issue is pertinent. Lack of awareness regarding common presenting symptoms or breast cancer risk factors translates to poor breast cancer screening practices and late diagnosis. Methodology: A cross-sectional study of 280 female nurses was conducted at a tertiary care hospital in Islamabad, Pakistan. A pre-tested structured questionnaire with additional variables like cultural barriers to seeking medical help was used. The scores for outcome variables including knowledge, attitude and practices were pre-defined. Data was analyzed using SPSSv23. Results: Of the 280 participants with a mean age of 28.99±9.98 years, 142 (50.7%) were married, and 138 (49.3%) were unmarried. Mean scores were computed to be 6.14±2.93 (out of 12), 0.30±0.7 (out of 3) and 9.53±1.92 (out of 16) for knowledge, attitude and practice respectively. Using independent sample T-test, a statistically significant correlation was found when means for the score of Attitude was compared with age. With a p-value of 0.018, 117 nurses of age more than 30 years, faced more practical, financial, emotional and service barriers as compared to 163 women younger than 30 years of age. Knowledge of age-related lifetime risks was also significantly poor more in single women; with a p-value of 0.006 for identification of correct age as a risk factor and a p-value of 0.005 for correct identification of risk for development of breast cancer in the lifetime of women. By application of Chi-square test, there was a significant correlation between marital status and cultural barriers to seeking medical help, showing that single women (58.7%) shy away from talking about breast cancer considering it a taboo (p-value 0.028) whereas, more married nurses (59.2%) were apprehensive that they might be considered at fault by the society, as compared to 40.8% of single nurses. (p-value 0.038). Conclusion: Owing to the scarcity of awareness among nurses, this study recognizes the need for delivering effective information to the female nurses regarding breast cancer. Educating patients is likely to be effective if the female nurses play their part and have correct attitudes towards breast cancer practices. A better understanding of the knowledge and practices regarding breast cancer among the nursing population will enable high-risk patients to be recognized early. Therefore, we recommend arrangement of special courses and seminars for all healthcare professionals including the nursing staff.

Keywords: breast cancer, cultural barriers, kap, nurses

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Authors: Aharouay Soumaya

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Efficiency is a relative concept. It is measured by comparing the productivity obtained in what is intended as standard or objective criteria. The quantity and quality of output achieved and the level of service are also compared to targets or standards, to determine to what extent they could cause changes in efficiency. Efficiency improves when more outputs of a specified quality are produced with the same resource inputs or less, or when the same amount of output is produced with fewer resources. This article proposes a review of the literature on strategies adopted by firms in the age of the financial crisis to overcome these negative effects, and tracks progress chosen by the organization to remain successful despite the plight of firms.

Keywords: effectiveness, efficiency, organizational capacity, strategy, management tool, progress, performance

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Authors: Ahmed Elwaleed, Huiho Jeong, Ali H. Abdelbagi, Nguyen Thi Quynh, Koji Arizono, Yasuhiro Ishibashi

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Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) poses substantial risks to both human health and the environment, particularly through contamination of soil, water, and air. Prolonged exposure to ASGM-contaminated soils can lead to acute or chronic mercury toxicity. This study assesses the human health risks associated with mercury-contaminated soils and tailings in the Alebediah mining community in Sudan. Soil samples were collected from various locations within Alebediah, including ASGM areas, farmlands, and residential areas, along with tailings samples commonly found within ASGM sites. The evaluation of potential health risks to humans included the computation of the estimated daily intake (AvDI), the hazard quotient (HQ), and the hazard index (HI) for both adults and children. The primary exposure route identified as potentially posing a significant health risk was the volatilization of mercury from tailings samples, where mercury concentrations reached up to 25.5 mg/kg. In contrast, other samples within the ASGM area showed elevated mercury levels but did not present significant health risks, with HI values below 1. However, all areas indicated HI values above 1 for the remaining exposure routes. The study observed a decrease in mercury concentration with increasing distance from the ASGM community. Additionally, soil samples revealed elevated mercury levels exceeding background values, prompting an assessment of contamination levels using the enrichment factor (EF). The findings indicated that farmlands and residential areas exhibited depleted EF, while areas surrounding the ASGM community showed none to moderate pollution. In contrast, ASGM areas exhibited significant to extreme pollution. A GIS map was generated to visually depict the extent of mercury pollution, facilitating communication with stakeholders and decision-makers.

Keywords: mercury pollution, artisanal and small-scale gold mining, health risk assessment, hazard index, soil and tailings, enrichment factor

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Authors: Charles Bijjah Nkhata, Memory Nekati Mvula, Milton Masautso Kalongonda, Martha Masamba, Isaac Thom Shawa

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Viral Hepatitis is a serious public health concern globally with deaths estimated at 1.4 million annually due to liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Hepatitis B and C are the most common viruses that cause liver damage. However, the majority of infected individuals are unaware of their serostatus. Viral Hepatitis has contributed to maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality. There is no updated data on the Epidemiology of hepatitis B and C among pregnant mothers in Malawi. To assess the epidemiology of Hepatitis B and C viruses among pregnant women at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital. Specific Objectives • To determine sero-prevalence of HBsAg and Anti-HCV in pregnant women at QECH. • To investigate risk factors associated with HBV and HCV infection in pregnant women. • To determine the distribution of HBsAg and Anti-HCV infection among pregnant women of different age group. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted among pregnant women at QECH in last quarter of 2021. Of the 114 pregnant women, 96 participants were consented and enrolled using a convenient sampling technique. 12 participants were dropped due to various reasons; therefore 84 completed the study. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect socio-demographic and behavior characteristics to assess the risk of exposure. Serum was processed from venous blood samples and tested for HBsAg and Anti-HCV markers utilizing Rapid screening assays for screening and Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay for confirmatory. A total of 84 pregnant consenting pregnant women participated in the study, with 1.2% (n=1/84) testing positive for HBsAg and nobody had detectable anti-HCV antibodies. There was no significant link between HBV and HCV in any of the socio-demographic data or putative risk variables. The findings indicate a viral hepatitis prevalence lower than the set range by the WHO. This suggests that HBV and HCV are rare in pregnant women at QECH. Nevertheless, accessible screening for all pregnant women should be provided. The prevention of MTCT is key for reduction and prevention of the global burden of chronic viral Hepatitis.

Keywords: viral hepatitis, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, pregnancy, malawi, liver disease, mother to child transmission

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Authors: Alan Ruiz-Padilla, Brando Villalobos-Villalobos, Yeniley Ruiz-Noa, Claudia Mendoza-Macías, Claudia Palafox-Sánchez, Miguel Marín-Rosales, Álvaro Cruz, Rubén Rangel-Salazar

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Introduction: In patients with rheumatoid arthritis, resistance or poor response to disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARD) may be a reflection of the increase in g-P. The expression of g-P may be important in mediating the effluence of DMARD from the cell. In addition, P-glycoprotein is involved in the transport of cytokines, IL-1, IL-2 and IL-4, from normal lymphocytes activated to the surrounding extracellular matrix, thus influencing the activity of RA. The involvement of P-glycoprotein in the transmembrane transport of cytokines can serve as a modulator of the efficacy of DMARD. It was shown that a number of lymphocytes with glycoprotein P activity is increased in patients with RA; therefore, P-glycoprotein expression could be related to the activity of RA and could be a predictor of poor response to therapy. Objective: To evaluate in RA patients, if the G2677T/A MDR1 polymorphisms is associated with differences in the rate of therapeutic response to disease-modifying antirheumatic agents in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Material and Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted. Fifty seven patients with RA were included. They had an active disease according to DAS-28 (score >3.2). We excluded patients receiving biological agents. All the patients were followed during 6 months in order to identify the rate of therapeutic response according to the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria. At the baseline peripheral blood samples were taken in order to identify the G2677T/A MDR1 polymorphisms using PCR- Specific allele. The fragment was identified by electrophoresis in polyacrylamide gels stained with ethidium bromide. For statistical analysis, the genotypic and allelic frequencies of MDR1 gene polymorphism between responders and non-responders were determined. Chi-square tests as well as, relative risks with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were computed to identify differences in the risk for achieving therapeutic response. Results: RA patients had a mean age of 47.33 ± 12.52 years, 87.7% were women with a mean for DAS-28 score of 6.45 ± 1.12. At the 6 months, the rate of therapeutic response was 68.7 %. The observed genotype frequencies were: for G/G 40%, T/T 32%, A/A 19%, G/T 7% and for A/A genotype 2%. Patients with G allele developed at 6 months of treatment, higher rate for therapeutic response assessed by ACR20 compared to patients with others alleles (p=0.039). Conclusions: Patients with G allele of the - G2677T/A MDR1 polymorphisms had a higher rate of therapeutic response at 6 months with DMARD. These preliminary data support the requirement for a deep evaluation of these and other genotypes as factors that may influence the therapeutic response in RA.

Keywords: pharmacogenetics, MDR1, P-glycoprotein, therapeutic response, rheumatoid arthritis

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Authors: Akbar Haghzadeh Saraskanroud, Amir Hossein Yahyavi Zanjani, Niloofar Kargar, Hanieh Ahrabi

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Cervical cancer refers to an unusual growth of cells in the cervix. The cervix is the lower part of the uterus, which connects to the vagina. Various risk factors such as human papillomavirus (HPV), having a weakened immune system, smoking or breathing in secondhand smoke, reproductive factors, and obesity play important roles in causing most cervical cancers. When cervical cancer happens, surgery is often the first treatment option to remove it. Other treatments might include chemotherapy and targeted therapy medicines. Radiation therapy with high-energy photon beams also may be used. Sometimes combined treatment, including radiation with low-dose chemotherapy, was applied. Intracavitary brachytherapy is an integral part of radiotherapy for locally advanced gynecologic malignancies such as cervical cancer. In the treatment of cervical cancer, there are different tools for doing brachytherapy. Two combinations of different applicators for this purpose are Tandem and Ovoid and Tandem and Ring. This study evaluated the dose differences between these two methods in the organs at risk of the rectum, sigmoid, and bladder. In this study, the treatment planswere simulated by the Oncentra treatment planning system and Tandem, Ovid, and Rings of different sizes. CT scan images of 23 patients were treated with HDR_BT Elekta Flexitron system were used for this study. Contouring of HR-CTV, rectum and bladder was performed for all patients. Then, the received dose of 0.1 and 0.2cc volumes of organs at risk were obtained and compared for these two methods: T-Ovoid and T-Ring. By doing investigations and dose measurements of points A and B and the volumes specified by ICRU, it seems that when comparing ring and ovoid to tandem and ovoid, the total dose to the rectum was lower by about 11%, and the bladder was 7%. In the case of HR CTV, this comparison showed that this ratio is about 7% better. Figure 1 shows the amount of decrease in rectum dose in the T-Ring method compared to T-Ovoid. Figure 2 indicates the amount of decrease in bladder dose in the T-Ring method compared to T-Ovoid. Finally, figure 3 illustrates the amount of HR-CTV coverage in the T-Ring method compared to the T-Ovoid.

Keywords: cervical cancer, brachytherapy, rectum, tandem and ovoid, tandem and ring.

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Authors: A. Alyami, S. Christmas, K. Neeltje, G. Pollakis, B. Paxton, Z. Al-Bayati

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The Human leukocyte antigen-G (HLA-G) molecule plays an important role in immunomodulation. To date, 16 untranslated regions (UTR) HLA-G haplotypes have been previously defined by sequenced SNPs in the coding region. From these, UTR-1, UTR-2, UTR-3, UTR-4, UTR-5, UTR-6 and UTR-7 are the most frequent 3’UTR haplotypes at the global level. UTR-1 is associated with higher levels of soluble HLA-G and HLA-G expression, whereas UTR-5 and UTR-7 are linked with low levels of soluble HLA-G and HLA-G expression. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection results in the progressive loss of immune function in infected individuals. The virus escape mechanism typically includes T lymphocytes and NK cell recognition and lyses by classical HLA-A and B down-regulation, which has been associated with non-classical HLA-G molecule up-regulation, respectively. We evaluated the haplotypes of the HLA-G 3′ untranslated region frequencies observed in three HIV-1 groups from the Netherlands and their susceptibility to develop infection. The three groups are made up of mainly men who have sex with men (MSM), injection drug users (IDU) and a high-risk-seronegative (HRSN) group. DNA samples were amplified with published primers prior sequencing. According to our results, the low expresser frequencies show higher in HRSN compared to other groups. This is indicating that 3’UTR polymorphisms may be identified as potential prognostic biomarkers to determine susceptibility to HIV.

Keywords: Human leukocyte antigen-G (HLA-G) , men who have sex with men (MSM), injection drug users (IDU), high-risk-seronegative (HRSN) group, high-untranslated region (UTR)

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Authors: Oman Sukmana

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Geographically, Indonesia appears to be disaster-prone areas, whether for natural, nonnatural (man-made), or social disasters. This study aimed to construct the knowledge and social wisdom on the local community in the process of disaster management after the eruption of Mt. Kelud. This study, moreover, encompassed two major concerns: (1) the construction of knowledge and social wisdom on the local community in the process of disaster management after the eruption of Mt. Kelud; (2) the conceptual framework of disaster management on the basis of knowledge and social wisdom on the local community. The study was conducted by means of qualitative approach. The data were analyzed by using the qualitative-descriptive technique. The data collection techniques used in this study were in-depth interview, focus group discussion, observation, and documentation. It was conducted at Pandansari Village, Sub-district Ngantang, District Malang as the most at risk area of Mt. Kelud’s eruption. The purposive sampling was applied ad hoc to select the respondents including: the apparatus of Pandansari Village, the local figures of Pandansari Village, the Chief and Boards of the Forum of Disaster Risk Reduction (FPRB), the Head of Malang Regional Disaster Management Agency, and other agencies. The findings of this study showed that the local community has already possessed the adequate knowledge and social wisdom to overcome the disaster. Through the social wisdom, the local community could predict the potential eruption.

Keywords: knowledge, social and local wisdom, disaster management

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Authors: Sabir Messalti, Ahmed Gherbi, Ahmed Bouchlaghem

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This paper presents comparative study for power systems transient stability improvement using three FACTS devices: the SVC(Static Var Compensator), the Thyristor Control Breaking Resistor (TCBR) and superconducting fault current limiter (SFCL)The transient stability is assessed by the criterion of relative rotor angles. Critical Clearing Time (CCT) is used as an index for evaluated transient stability. The present study is tested on the WSCC3 nine-bus system in the case of three-phase short circuit fault on one transmission line.

Keywords: SVC, TCBR, SFCL, power systems transient stability improvement

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Authors: Damou Mehdi, Nouri Keltouma, Fahem Mohammed

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In this paper, the concept of substrate integrated waveguide (SIW) technology is used to design filter for 30 GHz communication systems. SIW is created in the substrate of RT/Duroid 5880 having relative permittivity ε_r= 2.2 and loss tangent tanφ = 0.0009. Four Via are placed on the century filter the structures of SIW are modeled using and have been optimized in software HFSS (High Frequency Structure Simulator), à transition is designed for a Ka-band transceiver module with a 28.5GHz center frequency, . and then the results are verified using another simulation CST Microwave Studio (Computer Simulation Technology). The return loss are less than -18 dB, and -13 dB respectively. The insertion loss is divided equally -1.2 dB and -1.4 respectively.

Keywords: transition, microstrip, substrat integrated wave guide, filter, via

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety-critical incident to raise awareness of biases in the systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors, and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the methodology used to model and analyze the safety-critical incident. The SIRI methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the management oversight and risk tree technique. The benefits of the systems for investigation of railway interfaces methodology (SIRI) are threefold: first is that it incorporates the “Heuristics and Biases” approach advanced by 2002 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, Prof Daniel Kahneman, in the management oversight and risk tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of the role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling techniques. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organizational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signaling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons are learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner's and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision-making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 systems engineering standard and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and artificial intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 191