Search results for: death phenomenon
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3375

Search results for: death phenomenon

1425 Analysis of Ionosphere Anomaly Before Great Earthquake in Java on 2009 Using GPS Tec Data

Authors: Aldilla Damayanti Purnama Ratri, Hendri Subakti, Buldan Muslim

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Ionosphere’s anomalies as an effect of earthquake activity is a phenomenon that is now being studied in seismo-ionospheric coupling. Generally, variation in the ionosphere caused by earthquake activity is weaker than the interference generated by different source, such as geomagnetic storms. However, disturbances of geomagnetic storms show a more global behavior, while the seismo-ionospheric anomalies occur only locally in the area which is largely determined by magnitude of the earthquake. It show that the earthquake activity is unique and because of its uniqueness it has been much research done thus expected to give clues as early warning before earthquake. One of the research that has been developed at this time is the approach of seismo-ionospheric-coupling. This study related the state in the lithosphere-atmosphere and ionosphere before and when earthquake occur. This paper choose the total electron content in a vertical (VTEC) in the ionosphere as a parameter. Total Electron Content (TEC) is defined as the amount of electron in vertical column (cylinder) with cross-section of 1m2 along GPS signal trajectory in ionosphere at around 350 km of height. Based on the analysis of data obtained from the LAPAN agency to identify abnormal signals by statistical methods, obtained that there are an anomaly in the ionosphere is characterized by decreasing of electron content of the ionosphere at 1 TECU before the earthquake occurred. Decreasing of VTEC is not associated with magnetic storm that is indicated as an earthquake precursor. This is supported by the Dst index showed no magnetic interference.

Keywords: earthquake, DST Index, ionosphere, seismoionospheric coupling, VTEC

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1424 The Effect of Group Logotherapy on Depression and Life Quality in Cancer Patients

Authors: Fatemeh Ghaemi, Padideh Feyzi, Zohreh Dortaj

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Cancer is one of the common diseases that may cause death due to malignancy. The physical problems of cancer patients can have an impact on the psychological and social aspects of their lives. Depression is one of these problems that threaten the lives of these patients and can also reduce their quality of life. Helping patients with cancer to find meaning in life can increase their level of health and improve their quality of life. This study thus examines the effectiveness of group logotherapy on the depression and quality of life of women with cancer. Depression was measured using the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and quality of life was measured using Quality of Life Questionnaire (WHOQL) with acceptable and reliable indicators in the pre-test and post-test stages. The experimental group received group therapy in eight, sixty-minute sessions and the control group did not receive any intervention. After collecting the questionnaires, the mean and standard deviations were used to describe the data and the statistical method of multivariate analysis of covariance was used at the significant level (P≤0.05). The results were analyzed using SPSS(22). The results showed that there was a significant difference between post-test depression scores in the experimental group and the control group. Also, there was a significant difference between the post-test scores of quality of life and its components (psychological, physical, social and environmental health) in the experimental group and control group. The findings of this study showed the effectiveness of group logotherapy in decreasing depression and improving the quality of life of cancer patients. By focusing the minds of the people on the present and changing the attitude of the human being towards themselves, life and environment can help the depressed people, and by influencing the individual's view of himself, accepting responsibility, accepting life with purpose, paying attention to life uniformly, it allows a person to maintain his quality of life even with cancer. Therefore, it is recommended that this approach be used as a group intervention in hospitals and care units for cancer patients and even in people with certain diseases.

Keywords: cancer, depression, group psychiatry, quality of life

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1423 What Constitutes Pre-School Mathematics and How It Look Like in the Classroom?

Authors: Chako G. Chako

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This study reports on an ongoing research that explores pre-school mathematics. Participants in the study includes three pre-school teachers and their pre-school learners from one school in Gaborone. The school was purposefully selected based on its performance in Botswana’s 2019 national examinations. Specifically, the study is interested on teachers’ explanations of mathematics concepts embedded in pre-school mathematics tasks. The interest on explanations was informed by the view that suggests that, the mathematics learners get to learn, resides in teachers’ explanations. Recently, Botswana’s basic education has integrated pre-school education into the mainstream public primary school education. This move is part of the government’s drive to elevate Botswana to a knowledge-based-economy. It is believed that provision of pre-school education to all Batswana children will contribute immensely towards a knowledge-based-economy. Since pre-school is now a new phenomenon in our education, there is limited research at this level of education in Botswana. In particular, there is limited knowledge about what and how the teaching is conducted in Pre-Schools in Botswana. Hence, the study seeks to gain insight into what constitutes mathematics in tasks that learners are given, and how concepts are made accessible to Pre-school learners. The research question of interest for this study is stated as: What is the nature Pre-school teachers’ explanations of mathematics concepts embedded in tasks given to learners. Casting some light into what and how pre-school mathematics tasks are enacted is critical for policy and Pre-school teacher professional development. The sociocultural perspective framed the research. Adler and Rhonda’s (2014) notion of exemplification and explanatory communication are used to analyze tasks given to learners and teachers’ explanations respectively.

Keywords: classroom, explanation, mathematics, pre-school, tasks

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1422 When Conducting an Analysis of Workplace Incidents, It Is Imperative to Meticulously Calculate Both the Frequency and Severity of Injuries Sustain

Authors: Arash Yousefi

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Experts suggest that relying exclusively on parameters to convey a situation or establish a condition may not be adequate. Assessing and appraising incidents in a system based on accident parameters, such as accident frequency, lost workdays, or fatalities, may not always be precise and occasionally erroneous. The frequency rate of accidents is a metric that assesses the correlation between the number of accidents causing work-time loss due to injuries and the total working hours of personnel over a year. Traditionally, this has been calculated based on one million working hours, but the American Occupational Safety and Health Organization has updated its standards. The new coefficient of 200/000 working hours is now used to compute the frequency rate of accidents. It's crucial to ensure that the total working hours of employees are equally represented when calculating individual event and incident numbers. The accident severity rate is a metric used to determine the amount of time lost or wasted during a given period, often a year, in relation to the total number of working hours. It measures the percentage of work hours lost or wasted compared to the total number of useful working hours, which provides valuable insight into the number of days lost or wasted due to work-related incidents for each working hour. Calculating the severity of an incident can be difficult if a worker suffers permanent disability or death. To determine lost days, coefficients specified in the "tables of days equivalent to OSHA or ANSI standards" for disabling injuries are used. The accident frequency coefficient denotes the rate at which accidents occur, while the accident severity coefficient specifies the extent of damage and injury caused by these accidents. These coefficients are crucial in accurately assessing the magnitude and impact of accidents.

Keywords: incidents, safety, analysis, frequency, severity, injuries, determine

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1421 Pathogenic Effects of IgG and IgM Apoptotic Cell-Reactive Monoclonal Auto-Antibodies on Innate and Adaptive Immunity in Lupus

Authors: Monika Malik, Pooja Arora, Ruchi Sachdeva, Vishnampettai G. Ramachandran, Rahul Pal

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Apoptotic debris is believed to be the antigenic trigger in lupus. Whether such debris and autoantibodies induced in lupus-prone mice which specifically recognize its constituents can mediate differential effects on innate and humoral responses in such mice was assessed. The influence of apoptotic blebs and apoptotic cell-reactive monoclonal antibodies on phenotypic markers expressed on bone marrow-derived dendritic cells (BMDCs) and secreted cytokines were evaluated. Sera from lupus-prone and healthy mice immunized with the antibodies were analyzed for anti-self reactivity. Apoptotic blebs, as well as somatically-mutated IgG and non-mutated IgM apoptotic-cell reactive monoclonal antibodies, induced the preferential maturation of BMDCs derived from lupus-prone mice relative to BMDCs derived from healthy mice; antibody specificity and cell genotype both influenced the secretion of inflammatory cytokines. Immunization of lupus-prone mice with IgM and IgG antibodies led to hypergammaglobulinemia; elicited antibodies were self-reactive, and exhibited enhanced recognition of lupus-associated autoantigens (dsDNA, Ro60, RNP68, and Sm) in comparison with adjuvant-induced sera. While ‘natural’ IgM antibodies are believed to contribute to immune homeostasis, this study reveals that apoptotic cell-reactive IgM antibodies can promote inflammation and drive anti-self responses in lupus. Only in lupus-prone mice did immunization with IgG auto-antibodies enhance the kinetics of humoral anti-self responses, resulting in advanced-onset glomerulosclerosis. This study reveals that preferential innate and humoral recognition of the products of cell death in an autoimmune milieu influences the indices associated with lupus pathology.

Keywords: antigen spreading, apoptotic cell-reactive pathogenic IgG, and IgM autoantibodies, glomerulosclerosis, lupus

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1420 A Theory-Based Analysis on Implications of Democracy in Cambodia

Authors: Puthsodary Tat

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Democracy has been categorially accepted and used as foreign and domestic policy agendas for the hope of peace, economic growth and prosperity for more than 25 years in Cambodia. However, the country is now in the grip of dictatorship, human rights violations, and prospective economic sanctions. This paper examines different perceptions and experiences of democratic assistance. In this study, the author employs discourse theory, idealism and realism as a theory-based methodology for debating and assessing the implications of democratization. Discourse theory is used to establish a platform for understanding discursive formations, body of knowledge and the games of truth of democracy. Idealist approaches give rational arguments for adopting key tenets that work well on the ground. In contrast, realism allows for some sweeping critiques of utopian ideal and offers particular views on why Western hegemonic missions do not work well. From idealist views, the research finds that Cambodian people still believe that democracy is a prima facie universality for peace, growth and prosperity. From realism, democratization is on the brink of death in three reasons. Firstly, there are tensions between Western and local discourses about democratic values and norms. Secondly, democratic tenets have been undermined by the ruling party-controlled courts, corruption, structural oppression and political patronage-based institutions. The third pitfall is partly associated with foreign aid dependency and geopolitical power struggles in the region. Finally, the study offers a precise mosaic of democratic principles that may be used to avoid a future geopolitical and economic crisis.

Keywords: corruption, democracy, democratic principles, discourse theory, discursive formations, foreign aid dependency, games of truth, geopolitical and economic crisis, geopolitical power struggle, hegemonic mission, idealism, realism, utopian ideal

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1419 Mediation Analysis of the Efficacy of the Nimotuzumab-Cisplatin-Radiation (NCR) Improve Overall Survival (OS): A HPV Negative Oropharyngeal Cancer Patient (HPVNOCP) Cohort

Authors: Akshay Patil

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Objective: Mediation analysis identifies causal pathways by testing the relationships between the NCR, the OS, and an intermediate variable that mediates the relationship between the Nimotuzumab-cisplatin-radiation (NCR) and OS. Introduction: In randomized controlled trials, the primary interest is in the mechanisms by which an intervention exerts its effects on the outcomes. Clinicians are often interested in how the intervention works (or why it does not work) through hypothesized causal mechanisms. In this work, we highlight the value of understanding causal mechanisms in randomized trial by applying causal mediation analysis in a randomized trial in oncology. Methods: Data was obtained from a phase III randomized trial (Subgroup of HPVNOCP). NCR is reported to significantly improve the OS of patients locally advanced head and neck cancer patients undergoing definitive chemoradiation. Here, based on trial data, the mediating effect of NCR on patient overall survival was systematically quantified through progression-free survival(PFS), disease free survival (DFS), Loco-regional failure (LRF), and the disease control rate (DCR), Overall response rate (ORR). Effects of potential mediators on the HR for OS with NCR versus cisplatin-radiation (CR) were analyzed by Cox regression models. Statistical analyses were performed using R software Version 3.6.3 (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing) Results: Effects of potential mediator PFS was an association between NCR treatment and OS, with an indirect-effect (IE) 0.76(0.62 – 0.95), which mediated 60.69% of the treatment effect. Taking into account baseline confounders, the overall adjusted hazard ratio of death was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.43 – 0.96; P=0.03). The DFS was also a significant mediator and had an IE 0.77 (95% CI; 0.62-0.93), 58% mediated). Smaller mediation effects (maximum 27%) were observed for LRF with IE 0.88(0.74 – 1.06). Both DCR and ORR mediated 10% and 15%, respectively, of the effect of NCR vs. CR on the OS with IE 0.65 (95% CI; 0.81 – 1.08) and 0.94(95% CI; 0.79 – 1.04). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that PFS and DFS were the most important mediators of the OS with nimotuzumab to weekly cisplatin-radiation in HPVNOCP.

Keywords: mediation analysis, cancer data, survival, NCR, HPV negative oropharyngeal

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1418 Stroke Rehabilitation via Electroencephalogram Sensors and an Articulated Robot

Authors: Winncy Du, Jeremy Nguyen, Harpinder Dhillon, Reinardus Justin Halim, Clayton Haske, Trent Hughes, Marissa Ortiz, Rozy Saini

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Stroke often causes death or cerebro-vascular (CV) brain damage. Most patients with CV brain damage lost their motor control on their limbs. This paper focuses on developing a reliable, safe, and non-invasive EEG-based robot-assistant stroke rehabilitation system to help stroke survivors to rapidly restore their motor control functions for their limbs. An electroencephalogram (EEG) recording device (EPOC Headset) and was used to detect a patient’s brain activities. The EEG signals were then processed, classified, and interpreted to the motion intentions, and then converted to a series of robot motion commands. A six-axis articulated robot (AdeptSix 300) was employed to provide the intended motions based on these commends. To ensure the EEG device, the computer, and the robot can communicate to each other, an Arduino microcontroller is used to physically execute the programming codes to a series output pins’ status (HIGH or LOW). Then these “hardware” commends were sent to a 24 V relay to trigger the robot’s motion. A lookup table for various motion intensions and the associated EEG signal patterns were created (through training) and installed in the microcontroller. Thus, the motion intention can be direct determined by comparing the EEG patterns obtaibed from the patient with the look-up table’s EEG patterns; and the corresponding motion commends are sent to the robot to provide the intended motion without going through feature extraction and interpretation each time (a time-consuming process). For safety sake, an extender was designed and attached to the robot’s end effector to ensure the patient is beyond the robot’s workspace. The gripper is also designed to hold the patient’s limb. The test results of this rehabilitation system show that it can accurately interpret the patient’s motion intension and move the patient’s arm to the intended position.

Keywords: brain waves, EEG sensor, motion control, robot-assistant stroke rehabilitation

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1417 Programmable Microfluidic Device Based on Stimuli Responsive Hydrogels

Authors: Martin Elstner

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Processing of information by means of handling chemicals is a ubiquitous phenomenon in nature. Technical implementations of chemical information processing lack of low integration densities compared to electronic devices. Stimuli responsive hydrogels are promising candidates for materials with information processing capabilities. These hydrogels are sensitive toward chemical stimuli like metal ions or amino acids. The binding of an analyte molecule induces conformational changes inside the polymer network and subsequently the water content and volume of the hydrogel varies. This volume change can control material flows, and concurrently information flows, in microfluidic devices. The combination of this technology with powerful chemical logic gates yields in a platform for highly integrated chemical circuits. The manufacturing process of such devices is very challenging and rapid prototyping is a key technology used in the study. 3D printing allows generating three-dimensional defined structures of high complexity in a single and fast process step. This thermoplastic master is molded into PDMS and the master is removed by dissolution in an organic solvent. A variety of hydrogel materials is prepared by dispenser printing of pre-polymer solutions. By a variation of functional groups or cross-linking units, the functionality of the hole circuit can be programmed. Finally, applications in the field of bio-molecular analytics were demonstrated with an autonomously operating microfluidic chip.

Keywords: bioanalytics, hydrogels, information processing, microvalve

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1416 Analyzing Initial Efficacy of Animal Assisted Therapy for Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Case Study

Authors: Georgitta Joseph Valiyamattam

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Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are a growing phenomenon in India with over 10 million cases being recorded. Children with various levels and forms of ASD can be a major challenge both within the context of regular or special schooling. According to statistics by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), one in every 88 children today is born with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) against a ratio of one in 110 few years back. The growing number of children with autism spectrum disorders places greater demands on health services and necessitates the roping in of non-traditional modes of treatment to complement or even substitute traditional health care methods when possible. Research evidence, particularly from Western countries, as also some parts of Asia, suggests that animal-assisted therapy, or zootherapy, may be used as an effective individual or complementary therapeutic tool for increasing overall wellbeing and quality of life among children with Autism spectrum disorders. The paper through a case-study format seeks to evaluate the efficacy (initial stage) of animal assisted therapy (canine-therapy with visiting dog: breed-Golden retriever), as a non-conventional treatment modality for improving cognitive functioning and managing the behavioral and psychological symptoms of Autism Spectrum Disorders. As a pilot study forming the basis for subsequent larger application of AAT, it analyses areas of efficacy as also the challenges faced, both with regard to the mode of therapy, as also particular to the Indian setting.

Keywords: animal assisted therapy, autism, canine therapy, analyzing initial efficacy

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1415 The Use of Palm Kernel Shell and Ash for Concrete Production

Authors: J. E. Oti, J. M. Kinuthia, R. Robinson, P. Davies

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This work reports the potential of using Palm Kernel (PK) ash and shell as a partial substitute for Portland Cement (PC) and coarse aggregate in the development of mortar and concrete. PK ash and shell are agro-waste materials from palm oil mills, the disposal of PK ash and shell is an environmental problem of concern. The PK ash has pozzolanic properties that enables it as a partial replacement for cement and also plays an important role in the strength and durability of concrete, its use in concrete will alleviate the increasing challenges of scarcity and high cost of cement. In order to investigate the PC replacement potential of PK ash, three types of PK ash were produced at varying temperature (350-750 degrees) and they were used to replace up to 50% PC. The PK shell was used to replace up to 100% coarse aggregate in order to study its aggregate replacement potential. The testing programme included material characterisation, the determination of compressive strength, tensile splitting strength and chemical durability in aggressive sulfate-bearing exposure conditions. The 90 day compressive results showed a significant strength gain (up to 26.2 N/mm2). The Portland cement and conventional coarse aggregate has significantly higher influence in the strength gain compared to the equivalent PK ash and PK shell. The chemical durability results demonstrated that after a prolonged period of exposure, significant strength losses in all the concretes were observed. This phenomenon is explained, due to lower change in concrete morphology and inhibition of reaction species and the final disruption of the aggregate cement paste matrix.

Keywords: sustainability, concrete, mortar, palm kernel shell, compressive strength, consistency

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1414 Detection of Bcl2 Polymorphism in Patient with Hepatocellular carcinoma

Authors: Mohamed Abdel-Hamid, Olfat Gamil Shaker, Doha El-Sayed Ellakwa, Eman Fathy Abdel-Maksoud

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Introduction: Despite advances in the knowledge of the molecular virology of hepatitis C virus (HCV), the mechanisms of hepatocellular injury in HCV infection are not completely understood. Hepatitis C viral infection (HCV) influences the susceptibility to apoptosis. This could lead to insufficient antiviral immune response and persistent viral infection. Aim of this study: was to examine whether BCL-2 gene polymorphism at codon 43 (+127G/A or Ala43Thr) has an impact on development of hepatocellular carcinoma caused by chronic hepatitis C Egyptian patients. Subjects and Methods: The study included three groups; group 1: composing of 30 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), group 2 composing of 30 patients with HCV, group 3 composing of 30 healthy subjects matching the same age and socioeconomic status were taken as a control group. Gene polymorphism of BCL2 (Ala43Thr) were evaluated by PCR-RFLP technique and measured for all patients and controls. Results: The summed 43Thr genotype was more frequent and statistically significant in HCC patients as compared to control group. This genotype of BCL2 gene may inhibit the programmed cell death which leads to disturbance in tissue and cells homeostasis and reduction in immune regulation. This result leads to viral replication and HCV persistence. Moreover, virus produces variety of mechanisms to block genes participated in apoptosis. This mechanism proves that HCV patients who have 43Thr genotype are more susceptible to HCC. Conclusion: The data suggest for the first time that the BCL2 polymorphism is associated with the susceptibility to HCC in Egyptian populations and might be used as molecular markers for evaluating HCC risk. This study clearly demonstrated that Chronic HCV exhibit a deregulation of apoptosis with the disease progression. This provides an insight into the pathogenesis of chronic HCV infection, and may contribute to the therapy.

Keywords: BCL2 gene, Hepatitis C Virus, Hepatocellular carcinoma, sensitivity, specificity, apoptosis

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1413 Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) and Its Impact on the All-Cause Mortality of UK Women: A Matched Cohort Study 1984-2017

Authors: Nurunnahar Akter, Elena Kulinskaya, Nicholas Steel, Ilyas Bakbergenuly

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Although Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) is an effective treatment in ameliorating menopausal symptoms, it has mixed effects on different health outcomes, increasing, for instance, the risk of breast cancer. Because of this, many symptomatic women are left untreated. Untreated menopausal symptoms may result in other health issues, which eventually put an extra burden and costs to the health care system. All-cause mortality analysis may explain the net benefits and risks of the HRT therapy. However, it received far less attention in HRT studies. This study investigated the impact of HRT on all-cause mortality using electronically recorded primary care data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) that broadly represents the female population in the United Kingdom (UK). The study entry date for this study was the record of the first HRT prescription from 1984, and patients were followed up until death or transfer to another GP practice or study end date, which was January 2017. 112,354 HRT users (cases) were matched with 245,320 non-users by age at HRT initiation and general practice (GP). The hazards of all-cause mortality associated with HRT were estimated by a parametric Weibull-Cox model adjusting for a wide range of important medical, lifestyle, and socio-demographic factors. The multilevel multiple imputation techniques were used to deal with missing data. This study found that during 32 years of follow-up, combined HRT reduced the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality by 9% (HR: 0.91; 95% Confidence Interval, 0.88-0.94) in women of age between 46 to 65 at first treatment compared to the non-users of the same age. Age-specific mortality analyses found that combined HRT decreased mortality by 13% (HR: 0.87; 95% CI, 0.82-0.92), 12% (HR: 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82-0.93), and 8% (HR: 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85-0.98), in 51 to 55, 56 to 60, and 61 to 65 age group at first treatment, respectively. There was no association between estrogen-only HRT and women’s all-cause mortality. The findings from this study may help to inform the choices of women at menopause and to further educate the clinicians and resource planners.

Keywords: hormone replacement therapy, multiple imputations, primary care data, the health improvement network (THIN)

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1412 Experimental and Theoretical Investigation of Slow Reversible Deformation of Concrete in Surface-Active Media

Authors: Nika Botchorishvili, Olgha Giorgishvili

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Many-year investigations of the nature of damping creep of rigid bodies and materials led to the discovery of the fundamental character of this phenomenon. It occurs only when a rigid body comes in contact with a surface-active medium (liquid or gaseous), which brings about a decrease of the free surface energy of a rigid body as a result of adsorption, chemo-sorption or wetting. The reversibility of the process consists of a gradual disappearance of creep deformation when the action of a surface-active medium stops. To clarify the essence of processes, a physical model is constructed by using Griffith’s scheme and the well-known representation formulas of deformation origination and failure processes. The total creep deformation is caused by the formation and opening of microcracks throughout the material volume under the action of load. This supposedly happens in macroscopically homogeneous silicate and organic glasses, while in polycrystals (tuff, gypsum, steel) contacting with a surface-active medium micro crack are formed mainly on the grain boundaries. The creep of rubber is due to its swelling activated by stress. Acknowledgment: All experiments are financially supported by Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation of Georgia. Study of Properties of Concretes (Both Ordinary and Compacted) Made of Local Building Materials and Containing Admixtures, and Their Further Introduction in Construction Operations and Road Building. DP2016_26. 22.12.2016.

Keywords: process reversibility, surface-active medium, Rebinder’s effect, micro crack, creep

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1411 Nine Year Trend Analysis of Malaria in Kahsay Abera General Hospital Humera Town: Western Tigrai, Northern Ethiopia: A Retrospective Study

Authors: Getachew Belay, Getachew Kahsu, Brhane Berhe, Kebede Tesfay, Fitsum Mardu, Nigus Shishay, Hadush Negash, Aster Tsegaye

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Background: Malaria kills million people around the world, and it is still a serious public health problem in Ethiopia. Over the past years, the disease has been consistently reported as leading cause of outpatient visits, hospitalization and death in health facilities across the country. This study assessed malaria trend in Humera Town Kahsay Abera Hospital Tigrai region, Northern Ethiopia. Method: A Health facility retrospective cross sectional study was conducted in Kahsay Abera General Hospital from January 2011 to December 2019. Data of Malaria cases were reviewed from Health Management Information System with the help of experts in the office. The nine year data were extracted and analyzed using Excel by excluding those which lack demographic data. Result: A total of 36,604 smear positive malaria cases were confirmed in last nine years in the study area. Plasmodim falcifarum was the most prevalent reported species. Higher number of malaria cases were reported during October season.Males were more infected by the disese (63.1%) than females and males aged 15 years and above were the most iffected ones. The percentage proportion of P.falcifarum and P.vivax were 61.6% to 38.4%, respectively. There was a decreasing trend over the nine years following the peak in 2013. Conclusion: Malaria smear positivity, with highest cases being recorded in October, was declined over the nine years after peaking in 2013. Males aged 15 years and above were more affected, and P falciparum was the predominat species. Strengtheing the prevention and control activities is warranted in the study area.

Keywords: trend, malaria, kahsay abera general hospital, tigray, ethiopia

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1410 Sodium-glucose Co-transporter-2 Inhibitors in Heart Failure with Mildly Reduced Reduced Ejection Fraction: Future Perspectives in Patients with Neoplasia

Authors: M. A. Munteanu, A. M. Lungu, A. I. Chivescu, V. Teodorescu, E. Tufanoiu, C. Nicolae, T. I. Nanea

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Introduction: Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), which were first developed as antidiabetic medications, have demonstrated numerous positive benefits on the cardiovascular system, especially in the prevention of heart failure (HF). HF is a challenging, multifaceted disease that needs all-encompassing therapy. It should not be viewed as a limited form of heart illness but rather as a systemic disease that leads to multiple organ failure and death. SGLT2i is an extremely effective tool for treating HF by using its pleiotropic effects. In addition to its use in patients with diabetes mellitus who are at high cardiovascular risk or who have already experienced a cardiovascular event, SGLT2i administration has been shown to have positive effects on a variety of HF manifestations and stages, regardless of the patient's presence of diabetes mellitus. Material and Methods: According to the guide, 110 patients (83 males and 27 females) with heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF), with T2D and neoplasia, were enrolled in the prospective study. The structural and functional state of the left ventricle myocardium and ejection fraction was assessed through echocardiography. Patients were randomized to receive once-daily dapagliflozin 10 mg. Results: Patients with HFmrEF were divided into 3 subgroups according to age. 7% (8) patients aged < 45 years, 35% (28) patients aged between 46-59 years, and 58% (74) patients aged> 60 years. The most prevalent comorbidities were hypertension (43.1%), coronary heart disease (40%), and obesity (33.2%). Study drug discontinuation and serious adverse events were not frequent in the subgroups, in either men or women, until now. Conclusions: SGLT-2 inhibitors are a novel class of antidiabetic agents that have demonstrated positive efficacy and safety outcomes in the setting of HFmrEF. Until now, in our study, dapagliflozin was safe and well-tolerated irrespective of sex.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus type 2, Sodium-glucose co-transporters-2 inhibitors, heart failure, neoplasia

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1409 Salient Beliefs regarding Alcohol Reduction and Cessation among Thai Teenagers

Authors: Panrapee Suttiwan, Rewadee Watakakosol Arunya Tuicomepee, Sakkaphat T. Ngamake

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Alcohol consumption ranks among the top six of health-risk behaviors that lead to disability and death among Thai teenagers. Underage drinkers have higher health risks than their non-drinking peers do. This study, therefore, aimed to explore salient beliefs of Thai teenagers with alcohol reduction and cessation based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour theoretical framework. Participants were 225 high-school and vocational school students, most of whom (60.9%) consumed alcohol almost daily (5-6 times / week), and one-third of whom (33.8%) reported habitual moderate drink. The average age was 16.5 (SD = 0.9), and the average age of the first use of alcohol was 13.7 (SD = 2.2). Instrument was an open-ended questionnaire that elicited beliefs about having alcohol reduction / cessation in the past 12 months. Findings revealed salient benefit beliefs of alcohol reduction / cessation among the teens such as improved physical and mental health, accident and violence avoidance, less sexual risks, money and time saving, better academic performance, and improved relationships. In contrast, the teens identified several disadvantage beliefs such as deteriorating health, social awkwardness, lack of little fun, excitement, and experience, physical uneasiness, stress, and lack of self-confidence. Salient normative groups for alcohol reduction / cessation included parents, elder relatives, siblings, close friends, teachers, boy / girlfriends, and seniors / juniors at school. Situations influencing alcohol reduction / cessation included quarrels with boy / girlfriends, family conflicts, peer pressure, partying and socializing, festive holidays and anniversary celebration, and visiting entertainment places, etc. This study provides empirical evidence that help to identify normative attitudes towards alcohol reduction / cessation and may thus be an important knowledge for public health campaigns seeking to reduce alcohol consumption in this population.

Keywords: alcohol consumption reduction, cessation, salient belief, Thai teenagers

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1408 Change Detection and Analysis of Desertification Processes in Semi Arid Land in Algeria Using Landsat Data

Authors: Zegrar Ahmed, Ghabi Mohamed

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The degradation of arid and semi-arid ecosystems in Algeria has become a palpable fact that only hinders progress and rural development. In these exceptionally fragile environments, the decline of vegetation is done according to an alarming increase and wind erosion dominates. The ecosystem is subjected to a long hot dry season and low annual average rainfall. The urgency of the fight against desertification is imposed by the very nature of the process that tends to self-accelerate, resulting when human intervention is not forthcoming the irreversibility situations, preventing any possibility of restoration state of these zones. These phenomena have led to different degradation processes, such as the destruction of vegetation, soil erosion, and deterioration of the physical environment. In this study, the work is mainly based on the criteria for classification and identification of physical parameters for spatial analysis and multi-sources to determine the vulnerability of major steppe formations and their impact on desertification. we used Landsat data with two different dates March 2010 and November 2014 in order to determine the changes in land cover, sand moving and land degradation for the diagnosis of the desertification Phenomenon. The application, through specific processes, including the supervised classification was used to characterize the main steppe formations. An analysis of the vulnerability of plant communities was conducted to assign weights and identify areas most susceptible to desertification. Vegetation indices are used to characterize the steppe formations to determine changes in land use.

Keywords: remote sensing, SIG, ecosystem, degradation, desertification

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1407 Rank-Based Chain-Mode Ensemble for Binary Classification

Authors: Chongya Song, Kang Yen, Alexander Pons, Jin Liu

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In the field of machine learning, the ensemble has been employed as a common methodology to improve the performance upon multiple base classifiers. However, the true predictions are often canceled out by the false ones during consensus due to a phenomenon called “curse of correlation” which is represented as the strong interferences among the predictions produced by the base classifiers. In addition, the existing practices are still not able to effectively mitigate the problem of imbalanced classification. Based on the analysis on our experiment results, we conclude that the two problems are caused by some inherent deficiencies in the approach of consensus. Therefore, we create an enhanced ensemble algorithm which adopts a designed rank-based chain-mode consensus to overcome the two problems. In order to evaluate the proposed ensemble algorithm, we employ a well-known benchmark data set NSL-KDD (the improved version of dataset KDDCup99 produced by University of New Brunswick) to make comparisons between the proposed and 8 common ensemble algorithms. Particularly, each compared ensemble classifier uses the same 22 base classifiers, so that the differences in terms of the improvements toward the accuracy and reliability upon the base classifiers can be truly revealed. As a result, the proposed rank-based chain-mode consensus is proved to be a more effective ensemble solution than the traditional consensus approach, which outperforms the 8 ensemble algorithms by 20% on almost all compared metrices which include accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score and area under receiver operating characteristic curve.

Keywords: consensus, curse of correlation, imbalance classification, rank-based chain-mode ensemble

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1406 Systems Approach on Thermal Analysis of an Automatic Transmission

Authors: Sinsze Koo, Benjin Luo, Matthew Henry

Abstract:

In order to increase the performance of an automatic transmission, the automatic transmission fluid is required to be warm up to an optimal operating temperature. In a conventional vehicle, cold starts result in friction loss occurring in the gear box and engine. The stop and go nature of city driving dramatically affect the warm-up of engine oil and automatic transmission fluid and delay the time frame needed to reach an optimal operating temperature. This temperature phenomenon impacts both engine and transmission performance but also increases fuel consumption and CO2 emission. The aim of this study is to develop know-how of the thermal behavior in order to identify thermal impacts and functional principles in automatic transmissions. Thermal behavior was studied using models and simulations, developed using GT-Suit, on a one-dimensional thermal and flow transport. A power train of a conventional vehicle was modeled in order to emphasis the thermal phenomena occurring in the various components and how they impact the automatic transmission performance. The simulation demonstrates the thermal model of a transmission fluid cooling system and its component parts in warm-up after a cold start. The result of these analyses will support the future designs of transmission systems and components in an attempt to obtain better fuel efficiency and transmission performance. Therefore, these thermal analyses could possibly identify ways that improve existing thermal management techniques with prioritization on fuel efficiency.

Keywords: thermal management, automatic transmission, hybrid, and systematic approach

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1405 Cytolethal Distending Toxins in Intestinal and Extraintestinal E. coli

Authors: Katarína Čurová, Leonard Siegfried, Radka Vargová, Marta Kmeťová, Vladimír Hrabovský

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Introduction: Cytolethal distending toxins (CDTs) represent intracellular acting proteins which interfere with cell cycle of eukaryotic cells. They are produced by Gram-negative bacteria with afinity to mucocutaneous surfaces and could play a role in the pathogenesis of various diseases. CDTs induce DNA damage probably through DNAse activity, which causes cell cycle arrest and leads to further changes (cell distension and death, apoptosis) depending on the cell type. Five subtypes of CDT (I to V) were reported in E. coli. Methods: We examined 252 E. coli strains belonging to four different groups. Of these strains, 57 were isolated from patients with diarrhea, 65 from patients with urinary tract infections (UTI), 65 from patients with sepsis and 65 from patients with other extraintestinal infections (mostly surgical wounds, decubitus ulcers and respiratory tract infections). Identification of these strains was performed by MALDI-TOF analysis and detection of genes encoding CDTs and determination of the phylogenetic group was performed by PCR. Results: In this study, we detected presence of cdt genes in 11 of 252 E. coli strains tested (4,4 %). Four cdt positive E. coli strains were confirmed in group of UTI (6,15 %), three cdt positive E. coli strains in groups of diarrhea (5,3 %) and other extraintestinal infections (4,6 %). The lowest incidence, one cdt positive E. coli strain, was observed in group of sepsis (1,5 %). All cdt positive E. coli strains belonged to phylogenetic group B2. Conclusion: CDT-producing E. coli are isolated in a low percentage from patients with intestinal and extraintestinal infections, including sepsis and our results correspond with these studies. A weak prevalence of cdt genes suggests that CDTs are not major virulence factors but in combination with other virulence factors may increase virulence potential of E. coli. We suppose that all 11 cdt positive E. coli strains represent real pathogens because they belong to the phylogenetic group B2 which is pathogenic lineage for bacteria E. coli.

Keywords: cytolethal distending toxin, E. coli, phylogenetic group, extraintestinal infection, diarrhea

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1404 Analyzing the Role of Visual Preferences for Designing of Urban Leftover Spaces

Authors: Jasim Azhar, Morten Gjerde

Abstract:

A city’s space is comprehended as a phenomenon that emerges from the ongoing negotiation between the constructed environment, urban processes, and bodily experience. Many spaces do not represent a static notion but are continually challenged and reconstituted. The ability to recognize those leftover spaces in the urban context is an integral part of an urban redevelopment process, where structured and layered approaches become useful in understanding to transform these spaces into places. Contemporary urban leftover spaces exist as a result of several factors and are present in every major city that often disrupts the flow of districts by creating visually unappealing places. These spaces can be designed, transformed and integrated so as to achieve environmental gains and social preferences. The paper explores how those small changes in visual quality of an urban leftover spaces in Wellington city influence a person’s experience significantly and its potential usage. These spaces can be seen as a catalyst for a change through an ecological sustainability’s framework. A creative and flexible design would lead to psychologically healthy places by improving the image of a city from within. The qualitative research is undertaken through the visual preference studies which will inform the planning initiatives by knowing what people feel about those visual changes in these leftover spaces. Those visual preferences can guide behavior and the emotional responses of different users for the redesign of those spaces with the meaningful attributes. The research is driven by the hypothesis that if the attributes are made visible, the likelihood of stimulating the interest of users should increase.

Keywords: leftover spaces, visual preferences, tactical urbanism, ecological sustainability

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1403 Effects of Different Types of Perioperative Analgesia on Minimal Residual Disease Development After Colon Cancer Surgery

Authors: Lubomir Vecera, Tomas Gabrhelik, Benjamin Tolmaci, Josef Srovnal, Emil Berta, Petr Prasil, Petr Stourac

Abstract:

Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide and colon cancer is the second most common type of cancer. Currently, there are only a few studies evaluating the effect of postoperative analgesia on the prognosis of patients undergoing radical colon cancer surgery. Postoperative analgesia in patients undergoing colon cancer surgery is usually managed in two ways, either with strong opioids (morphine, piritramide) or epidural analgesia. In our prospective study, we evaluated the effect of postoperative analgesia on the presence of circulating tumor cells or minimal residual disease after colon cancer surgery. A total of 60 patients who underwent radical colon cancer surgery were enrolled in this prospective, randomized, two-center study. Patients were randomized into three groups, namely piritramide, morphine and postoperative epidural analgesia. We evaluated the presence of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and cytokeratin 20 (CK-20) mRNA positive circulating tumor cells in peripheral blood before surgery, immediately after surgery, on postoperative day two and one month after surgery. The presence of circulating tumor cells was assessed by quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). In the priritramide postoperative analgesia group, the presence of CEA mRNA positive cells was significantly lower on a postoperative day two compared to the other groups (p=0.04). The value of CK-20 mRNA positive cells was the same in all groups on all days. In all groups, both types of circulating tumor cells returned to normal levels one month after surgery. Demographic and baseline clinical characteristics were similar in all groups. Compared with morphine and epidural analgesia, piritramide significantly reduces the amount of CEA mRNA positive circulating tumor cells after radical colon cancer surgery.

Keywords: cancer progression, colon cancer, minimal residual disease, perioperative analgesia.

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1402 Traumatic Chiasmal Syndrome Following Traumatic Brain Injury

Authors: Jiping Cai, Ningzhi Wangyang, Jun Shao

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Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality that leads to structural and functional damage in several parts of the brain, such as cranial nerves, optic nerve tract or other circuitry involved in vision and occipital lobe, depending on its location and severity. As a result, the function associated with vision processing and perception are significantly affected and cause blurred vision, double vision, decreased peripheral vision and blindness. Here two cases complaining of monocular vision loss (actually temporal hemianopia) due to traumatic chiasmal syndrome after frontal head injury were reported, and were compared the findings with individual case reports published in the literature. Reported cases of traumatic chiasmal syndrome appear to share some common features, such as injury to the frontal bone and fracture of the anterior skull base. The degree of bitemporal hemianopia and visual loss acuity have a variable presentation and was not necessarily related to the severity of the craniocerebral trauma. Chiasmal injury may occur even in the absence bony chip impingement. Isolated bitemporal hemianopia is rare and clinical improvement usually may not occur. Mechanisms of damage to the optic chiasm after trauma include direct tearing, contusion haemorrhage and contusion necrosis, and secondary mechanisms such as cell death, inflammation, edema, neurogenesis impairment and axonal damage associated with TBI. Beside visual field test, MRI evaluation of optic pathways seems to the strong objective evidence to demonstrate the impairment of the integrity of visual systems following TBI. Therefore, traumatic chiasmal syndrome should be considered as a differential diagnosis by both neurosurgeons and ophthalmologists in patients presenting with visual impairment, especially bitemporal hemianopia after head injury causing frontal and anterior skull base fracture.

Keywords: bitemporal hemianopia, brain injury, optic chiasma, traumatic chiasmal syndrome.

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1401 A Preliminary Study of Local Customers' Perception towards the Image of the Spa and Their Intention to Visit

Authors: Felsy J. Sandi

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There is a potential of growth in the spa industry due to the influx of domestic and international tourist coming to Sabah, Malaysia. It is a good opportunity to venture into this industry for the country’s economic future growth, and therefore, it is essential for this area to be researched. Being one of the fastest growing industries in the world, has led to enormous challenges, which need to be addressed. Malaysia is also riding with this phenomenon. The President of the Malaysian Association of Wellness and Spa stated that the misconception about the Spa industry’s image, especially amongst the elderly is the biggest challenge faced by the industry, as they perceived the spa industry is equivalent to a prostitution center. Therefore, the objective of this study is to explore the issue by analyzing whether image can be added in the theory of planned behavior to better understand the consumer’s intention to visit, in the spa context. The Theory of Planned Behavior by Ajzen, a theory or model in predicting intention, has three constructs; such as Attitude as the first construct, the second construct is Subjective Norm and the third construct is Perceived Behavioral Control. Qualitative research is used as this is an exploratory research. The site of study will be at Jari Jari Spa, located in Kota Kinabalu, the only spa in Sabah that was awarded as the Center of Excellence (CoE) by the Ministry of Tourism and Culture in Malaysia. The findings propose to provide useful information to the relevant stakeholders on ways to approach local customers to convince them to visit the spa and for spa marketers to help them develop and design effective marketing strategies. Future investigation should consider more on the perception and loyalty of the local customers.

Keywords: consumer's perception, image, local customer, spa, visit intention

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1400 Existential Suffering in the Daily Lives of Those Living with Palliative Care Needs Arising from Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Authors: Louise Elizabeth Bolton

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Statement of the problem: There are an estimated 328 million cases of COPD worldwide. It is likely to become the third biggest cause of death by 2030. The impact of living with palliative care needs arising from COPD disrupts an individual’s existential situation. Understandings of individuals' existential situations within COPD are limited within the research literature and are rarely addressed within clinical practice, yet existential suffering has been linked to poor health-related quality of life for those living with other chronic conditions. The purpose of this integrative review is to provide a synthesis of existing evidence on existential suffering for those living with palliative care needs arising from COPD. Methods: This is an integrative review undertaken in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. Nine electronic databases were searched from April 2019 to January 2021. Thirty-five empirical research papers of both qualitative and quantitative methodologies, alongside systematic literature reviews, were included. Data analysis was undertaken using an integrative thematic analysis approach. Findings: Identified themes of existential suffering when living with palliative care needs arising from COPD are as follows: Liminality, Lamented Life, Loss of Personal Liberty, Life Meaning and Existential isolation. The absence of life meaning and purpose was of most importance to patients. Conclusion and Significance: This integrative review provides a synthesis of international evidence upon the presence of existential suffering. It is present and of significant impact within the daily lives of those living with palliative care needs arising from COPD. The absence of life meaning has the most significant impact, requiring further exploration of both its physical and psychological impact. Rediscovery of life meaning diminishes feelings of worthlessness and hopelessness in daily life and facilitates feelings of inner peace. For those with COPD living with such a relentless symptom burden, a positive existential situation is desirable.

Keywords: palliative care, COPD, existential suffering, end of life care

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1399 Dynamic Modelling of Hepatitis B Patient Using Sihar Model

Authors: Alakija Temitope Olufunmilayo, Akinyemi, Yagba Joy

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Hepatitis is the inflammation of the liver tissue that can cause whiteness of the eyes (Jaundice), lack of appetite, vomiting, tiredness, abdominal pain, diarrhea. Hepatitis is acute if it resolves within 6 months and chronic if it last longer than 6 months. Acute hepatitis can resolve on its own, lead to chronic hepatitis or rarely result in acute liver failure. Chronic hepatitis may lead to scarring of the liver (Cirrhosis), liver failure and liver cancer. Modelling Hepatitis B may become necessary in order to reduce its spread. So, dynamic SIR model can be used. This model consists of a system of three coupled non-linear ordinary differential equation which does not have an explicit formula solution. It is an epidemiological model used to predict the dynamics of infectious disease by categorizing the population into three possible compartments. In this study, a five-compartment dynamic model of Hepatitis B disease was proposed and developed by adding control measure of sensitizing the public called awareness. All the mathematical and statistical formulation of the model, especially the general equilibrium of the model, was derived, including the nonlinear least square estimators. The initial parameters of the model were derived using nonlinear least square embedded in R code. The result study shows that the proportion of Hepatitis B patient in the study population is 1.4 per 1,000,000 populations. The estimated Hepatitis B induced death rate is 0.0108, meaning that 1.08% of the infected individuals die of the disease. The reproduction number of Hepatitis B diseases in Nigeria is 6.0, meaning that one individual can infect more than 6.0 people. The effect of sensitizing the public on the basic reproduction number is significant as the reproduction number is reduced. The study therefore recommends that programme should be designed by government and non-governmental organization to sensitize the entire Nigeria population in order to reduce cases of Hepatitis B disease among the citizens.

Keywords: hepatitis B, modelling, non-linear ordinary differential equation, sihar model, sensitization

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1398 Molecular Detection of Helicobacter Pylori and Its Association with TNFα-308 Polymorphism in Cardiovascular Diseases

Authors: Azar Sharafianpor, Hossein Rassi, Fahimeh Nemati Mansur

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Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the most important cause of death in industrialized and developing countries such as Iran. The most important risk factors for the CVD, genetic factors and chronic infectious agents, such as Helicobacter pylori, can be mentioned. The TNFα gene is one of the most important anti-inflammatory cytokines that can affect the sensitivity, efficacy, and ability of the immune response to chronic infections. Some TNF-α gene polymorphisms, including the replacement of the G nucleotide G with A at position 308 in the promoter region of TNF-α, increase the transcription of cytokines in the target cells and thus predispose a person to chronic infections. This study examines the TNF-α 308 polymorphism and its association with Helicobacter pylori infection in this disease. This study was a case-control study in which 154 patients were examined as cases or patients with symptoms of myocardial infarction or angina and 160 as controls or healthy subjects. All of the subjects at different ages were given venous blood and age, BMI, cholesterol, LDL, and HDL were determined. DNA was extracted from the specimens, and the cagA gene from H. pylori and the TNF-α-308 polymorphism were determined by PCR in patients and healthy subjects. Statistical analysis was performed with Epi Info software. The results showed that the frequency of H. pylori infection in the patients and healthy group were 53.23% (82 out of 154) and 47.5% (76 out of 160). There was no significant difference in H. pylori outbreak between the two groups. The frequencies of TNF-α-308 genotype for GG, GA, and AA in patients were 0.17, 0.49, and 0.34, respectively, whereas for controls 0.47, 0.35, and 0.18 for GG, GA, and AA, respectively. The frequency of genotype analysis of TNF-α-308 polymorphisms in both patients and healthy groups showed that there was a significant difference in the frequency of genotypes and the AA genotype was higher in the affected individuals. Also, there was a significant relationship between the genotype and the contamination with H. pylori and changes in cholesterol, LDL, and HDL levels were observed. The results of the study indicate that H. pylori detection in individuals with AA genotype in people under 50 years of age can play an important role in early diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular disease.

Keywords: Helicobacter pylori, TNFα gene, cardiovascular diseases, TNFα-308 polymorphism

Procedia PDF Downloads 154
1397 Investigation of Polymer Solar Cells Degradation Behavior Using High Defect States Influence Over Various Polymer Absorber Layers

Authors: Azzeddine Abdelalim, Fatiha Rogti

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The degradation phenomenon in polymer solar cells (PCSs) has not been clearly explained yet. In fact, there are many causes that show up and influence these cells in a variety of ways. Also, there has been a growing concern over this degradation in the photovoltaic community. One of the main variables deciding PSCs photovoltaic output is defect states. In this research, devices modeling is carried out to analyze the multiple effects of degradation by applying high defect states (HDS) on ideal PSCs, mainly poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) absorber layer. Besides, a comparative study is conducted between P3HT and other PSCs by a simulation program called Solar Cell Capacitance Simulator (SCAPS). The adjustments to the defect parameters in several absorber layers explain the effect of HDS on the total output properties of PSCs. The performance parameters for HDS, quantum efficiency, and energy band were therefore examined. This research attempts to explain the degradation process of PSCs and the causes of their low efficiency. It was found that the defects often affect PSCs performance, but defect states have a little effect on output when the defect level is less than 1014cm-3, which gives similar performance values with P3HT cells when these defects is about 1019cm-3. The high defect states can cause up to 11% relative reduction in conversion efficiency of ideal P3HT. In the center of the band gap, defect states become more noxious. This approach is for one of the degradation processes potential of PSCs especially that use fullerene derivative acceptors.

Keywords: degradation, high defect states, polymer solar cells, SCAPS-1D

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1396 Closed-Loop Supply Chain: A Study of Bullwhip Effect Using Simulation

Authors: Siddhartha Paul, Debabrata Das

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Closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) management focuses on integrating forward and reverse flow of material as well as information to maximize value creation over the entire life-cycle of a product. Bullwhip effect in supply chain management refers to the phenomenon where a small variation in customers’ demand results in larger variation of orders at the upstream levels of supply chain. Since the quality and quantity of products returned to the collection centers (as a part of reverse logistics process) are uncertain, bullwhip effect is inevitable in CLSC. Therefore, in the present study, first, through an extensive literature survey, we identify all the important factors related to forward as well as reverse supply chain which causes bullwhip effect in CLSC. Second, we develop a system dynamics model to study the interrelationship among the factors and their effect on the performance of overall CLSC. Finally, the results of the simulation study suggest that demand forecasting, lead times, information sharing, inventory and work in progress adjustment rate, supply shortages, batch ordering, price variations, erratic human behavior, parameter correcting, delivery time delays, return rate of used products, manufacturing and remanufacturing capacity constraints are the important factors which have a significant influence on system’s performance, specifically on bullwhip effect in a CLSC.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, closed-loop supply chain, system dynamics, variance ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 164