Search results for: prediction interval

Authors: Jiangyong Liu, Xiangxiang Xu, Bote Luo, Xiaoxue Luo, Jiang Zhu, Lingzhi Yi

Abstract:

To address the problems of non-linearity and high randomness of the original power load sequence causing the degradation of power load forecasting accuracy, a short-term load forecasting method is proposed. The method is based on the Least Square Support Vector Machine optimized by an Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm combined with the Variational Mode Decomposition proposed in this paper. The application of the variational mode decomposition technique decomposes the raw power load data into a series of Intrinsic Mode Functions components, which can reduce the complexity and instability of the raw data while overcoming modal confounding; the proposed improved sparrow search algorithm can solve the problem of difficult selection of learning parameters in the least Square Support Vector Machine. Finally, through comparison experiments, the results show that the method can effectively improve prediction accuracy.

Keywords: load forecasting, variational mode decomposition, improved sparrow search algorithm, least square support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Surendra Kumar Chourasiya, Sandeep Kumar, Devendra Singh

Abstract:

In the present investigation tribological behavior of Al-6Si-1Mg-1Graphite composite has been explained. The composite was developed through the unique spray forming route in the spray forming chamber by using N₂ gas at 7kg/cm² and the flight distance was 400 mm. Spray formed composite having a certain amount of porosity which was reduced by the deformations. The composite was subjected to the warm rolling (WR) at 250ºC up to 40% reduction. Spray forming composite shows the considerable microstructure refinement, equiaxed grains, distribution of silicon and graphite particles in the primary matrix of the composite. Graphite (Gr) was incorporated externally during the process that works as a solid lubricant. Porosity decreased after reduction and hardness increases. Pin on disc test has been performed to analyze the wear behavior which is the function of sliding distance for all percent reduction of the composite. 30% WR composite shows the better result of wear rate and coefficient of friction. The improved wear properties of the composite containing Gr are discussed in light of the microstructural features of spray formed the composite and the nature of the debris particles. Scanning electron microscope and optical microscope analysis of the present material supported the prediction of aforementioned changes.

Keywords: Al-6Si-1Mg-1Graphite, spray forming, warm rolling, wear

Procedia PDF Downloads 566

Authors: K. Jahani, J. Razavi

Abstract:

Nowadays, to decrease the number of downtimes in the industries such as metal mining, petroleum and chemical industries, predictive maintenance is crucial. In order to have efficient predictive maintenance, knowing the performance of critical equipment of production line such as pumps and hydro-cyclones under variable operating parameters, selecting best indicators of this equipment health situations, best locations for instrumentation, and also measuring of these indicators are very important. In this paper, computer aided engineering (CAE) tools are implemented to study some important elements of copper process line, namely slurry pumps and cyclone to predict the performance of these components under different working conditions. These modeling and simulations can be used in predicting, for example, the damage tolerance of the main shaft of the slurry pump or wear rate and location of cyclone wall or pump case and impeller. Also, the simulations can suggest best-measuring parameters, measuring intervals, and their locations.

Keywords: computer aided engineering, predictive maintenance, fault detection, mining process line, slurry pump, hydrocyclone

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Michal Stelmach

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is a critical analysis of the security policy in the field of the fight against transnational criminal groups in Central America in XXI century. We are analyzing all taken issues from several perspectives: political, anthropological, sociological and legal which allows me to confront behavior and the attitudes of the political elites against official legislative changes and declared actions, strategies and policies against practice. In the first part of paper we would like to present the genesis and characteristic of transnational gangs, called maras and next we would like to present their activities and roles within chosen sectors of organized crimes. In the second part we will analyze the government’s policy towards transnational criminal groups. The analysis will be concentrated on public safety policy implemented in specific Central American countries as well as regional international cooperation. The main intention of the author is to present the state of the security in Central America in XXI century by emphasizing failures and successes in the fight against transnational criminal organizations. Additionally we want to present and define the challenges currently facing the region now and to show the prediction of the situation’s development within next future and to define the recommendations on the design of public security policies in Central American countries.

Keywords: maras, public security, human rights, Central America

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Tonga Agadi Danladi, Ajao Wasiu Bamidele, Terdue Dyeko

Abstract:

Recent advancement in microwave communications technologies especially in telecommunications and broadcasting have resulted in congestion on the frequencies below 10GHz. This has forced microwave designers to look for high frequencies. Unfortunately for frequencies greater than 10GHz rain becomes one of the main factors of attenuation in signal strength. At frequencies from 10GHz upwards, rain drop sizes leads to outages that compromises the availability and quality of service this making it a critical factor in satellite link budget design. Rain rate and rain attenuation predictions are vital steps to be considered when designing microwave satellite communication link operating at Ku-band frequencies (112-18GHz). Unreliable rain rates data in the tropical regions of the world like Nigeria from radio communication group of the international Telecommunication Union (ITU-R) makes it difficult for microwave engineers to determine a realistic rain margin that needs to be accommodated in satellite link budget design in such region. This work presents an empirical tool for predicting the amount of signal due to rain on DBS signal operating at the Ku-band.

Keywords: attenuation, Ku-Band, microwave communication, rain rates

Procedia PDF Downloads 487

Authors: James M. Wakiru, Liliane Pintelon, Peter Muchiri, Stanley Mburu

Abstract:

Maintenance performance measurement (MPM) represents an integrated aspect that considers both operational and maintenance related aspects while evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of maintenance to ensure assets are working as they should. Three salient issues require to be addressed for an asset-intensive organization to employ an MPM-based framework to optimize maintenance. Firstly, the organization should establish important perfomance metric(s), in this case the maintenance objective(s), which they will be focuss on. The second issue entails aligning the maintenance objective(s) with maintenance optimization. This is achieved by deriving maintenance performance indicators that subsequently form an objective function for the optimization program. Lastly, the objective function is employed in an optimization program to derive maintenance decision support. In this study, we develop a framework that initially identifies the crucial maintenance performance measures, and employs them to derive maintenance decision support. The proposed framework is demonstrated in a case study of a geothermal drilling rig, where the objective function is evaluated utilizing a simulation-based model whose parameters are derived from empirical maintenance data. Availability, reliability and maintenance inventory are depicted as essential objectives requiring further attention. A simulation model is developed mimicking a drilling rig operations and maintenance where the sub-systems are modelled undergoing imperfect maintenance, corrective (CM) and preventive (PM), with the total cost as the primary performance measurement. Moreover, three maintenance spare inventory policies are considered; classical (retaining stocks for a contractual period), vendor-managed inventory with consignment stock and periodic monitoring order-to-stock (s, S) policy. Optimization results infer that the adoption of (s, S) inventory policy, increased PM interval and reduced reliance of CM actions offers improved availability and total costs reduction.

Keywords: maintenance, vendor-managed, decision support, performance, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Innocent C. Ezenwa, Takashi Yoshino

Abstract:

Knowledge of the transport properties of Fe and its alloys at extreme high pressure (P), temperature (T) conditions are essential for understanding the generation and sustainability of the magnetic field of the rocky planets with a metallic core. Since Pt, an unfilled d-band late transition metal with an electronic structure of Xe4f¹⁴5d⁹6s¹, is paramagnetic and remains close-packed structure at ambient conditions and high P-T, it is expected that its transport properties at these conditions would be similar to those of ε-Fe. We investigated the T-dependent electrical resistivity of solid and liquid Pt up to 8 GPa and found it constant along its melting curve both on the liquid and solid sides in agreement with theoretical prediction and experimental results estimated from thermal conductivity measurements. Our results suggest that the T-dependent resistivity of ε-Fe is linear and would not saturate at high P, T conditions. This, in turn, suggests that the thermal conductivity of liquid Fe at Earth’s core conditions may not be as high as previously suggested by models employing saturation resistivity. Hence, thermal convection could have powered the geodynamo before the birth of the inner core. The electrical resistivity and thermal conductivity on the liquid and solid sides of the inner core boundary of the Earth would be significantly different in values.

Keywords: electrical resistivity, thermal conductivity, transport properties, geodynamo and geomagnetic field

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Reza Bushehri

Abstract:

One of the principal parameters defining the clay soil dynamic response is the strain-shear modulus relation. Predicting the strain and, subsequently, shear modulus reduction of the soil is essential for performance analysis of structures exposed to earthquake and dynamic loadings. Many soil properties affect soil’s dynamic behavior. In order to capture those effects, in this study, a database containing 1193 data points consists of maximum shear modulus, strain, moisture content, initial void ratio, plastic limit, liquid limit, initial confining pressure resulting from dynamic laboratory testing of 21 clays is collected for predicting the shear modulus vs. strain curve of soil. A model based on an extreme gradient boosting technique is proposed. A tree-structured parzan estimator hyper-parameter tuning algorithm is utilized simultaneously to find the best hyper-parameters for the model. The performance of the model is compared to the existing empirical equations using the coefficient of correlation and root mean square error.

Keywords: XGBoost, hyper-parameter tuning, soil shear modulus, dynamic response

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Yuanxiang Miao

Abstract:

Couchsurfing is a free homestay and social networking service accessible via the website and mobile app. Couchsurfers can directly request free accommodations from others and receive offers from each other. However, it is typically difficult for people to make a decision that accepts or declines a request when they receive it from Couchsurfers because they do not know each other at all. People are expected to meet up with some Couchsurfers who are kind, generous, and interesting while it is unavoidable to meet up with someone unfriendly. This paper utilized classification algorithms of Machine Learning to help people to find out the Good Couchsurfers and Not Good Couchsurfers on the Couchsurfing website. By knowing the prior experience, like Couchsurfer’s profiles, the latest references, and other factors, it became possible to recognize what kind of the Couchsurfers, and furthermore, it helps people to make a decision that whether to host the Couchsurfers or not. The value of this research lies in a case study in Kyoto, Japan in where the author has hosted 54 Couchsurfers, and the author collected relevant data from the 54 Couchsurfers, finally build a model based on classification algorithms for people to predict Couchsurfers. Lastly, the author offered some feasible suggestions for future research.

Keywords: Couchsurfing, Couchsurfers prediction, classification algorithm, hospitality tourism platform, hospitality sciences, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh River, Log Pearson Type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Ghorbeli Eya, Naija Lamia, Khessairi Nayssem, Saadallah Fatma, Slimane Maher, Tarek Ben Dhiab

Abstract:

INTRODUCTION: Borderline ovarian tumors account for 15 to 20% of ovarian tumors. Prognostic factors of recurrence include the stage of the disease, presence of peritoneal implants, micropapillary pattern, microinvasion and intra-epithelial carcinoma. Fertility sparing constitutes a major therapeutic issue in young patients that leads to conservative surgical treatment in specific cases. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective descriptive study including patients treated at the Salah Azaiez Institute for Borderline Ovarian Tumor who underwent conservative surgical treatment from 2003 to 2018. RESULTS: Nine patients were included in our study. The median age was 33 years. Three patients were nulliparous. Given the age, conservative treatment was indicated in all these patients. Cystectomy without ovariectomy was indicated in 5 of the 9 women, which was within the margin of tumor resection on definitive anatomopathic examination in 3 of the 5 women. In contrast, given the impossibility of ovarian conservation, total annexectomy was carried out in 4 of all these women. All of the patients were followed regularly postoperatively; three had a carcinomatous transformation as an ovarian adenocarcinoma at an average interval of 18 months. Among these three patients, a single one presented intra-peritoneal metastases, requiring radical surgical treatment and adjuvant chemotherapy with 6 cures of Carbo-Taxol, with a good tolerance and a complete response. Moreover, one patient had a recurrence on the contralateral ovary as a Borderline mucinous ovarian tumor. For the remaining four women, after a median follow-up of 35 months, one patient fell spontaneously pregnant during follow-up, and three patients were in complete remission at 16 months. CONCLUSION: Borderline tumors of the ovary usually occur in young patients, which makes conservative treatment advisable if possible, but this always comes with a risk of recurrence and/or carcinomatous transformation, especially if the conservative surgical procedure was a cystectomy instead of a total annexectomy, and even more so if the resection margins were tumoral.

Keywords: ovarian tumor, conservative treatment, surgical management, borderline ovarian tumor, recurrence management

Procedia PDF Downloads 31

Authors: Lei Zhang, Wen-jun Ruan, Hao Wang, Peng-Xin Wang

Abstract:

The source of the jet noise is generated by rocket exhaust plume during rocket engine testing. A domain decomposition approach is applied to the jet noise prediction in this paper. The aerodynamic noise coupling is based on the splitting into acoustic sources generation and sound propagation in separate physical domains. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is used to simulate the supersonic jet flow. Based on the simulation results of the flow-fields, the jet noise distribution of the sound pressure level is obtained by applying the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H) acoustics equation and Fourier transform. The calculation results show that the complex structures of expansion waves, compression waves and the turbulent boundary layer could occur due to the strong interaction between the gas jet and the ambient air. In addition, the jet core region, the shock cell and the sound pressure level of the gas jet increase with the nozzle size increasing. Importantly, the numerical simulation results of the far-field sound are in good agreement with the experimental measurements in directivity.

Keywords: supersonic gas jet, Large Eddy Simulation(LES), acoustic noise, Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings(FW-H) equations, nozzle size

Procedia PDF Downloads 413

Authors: Titilola Adebowale

Abstract:

Some factors are responsible for the social adjustment among the adolescents. The study investigated resiliency, peer and parental support as factors that could determine social adjustment among adolescents in Ilorin, Kwara state. The study adopted descriptive survey research design. A sample size of 300 SS1 & SS2 students from ten secondary schools, six public and four private schools were randomly selected within Ilorin Metropolis. Self-structured questionnaire that was validated and the reliability ensured was used to collect data from the respondents. Four hypotheses were postulated and tested at 0.05 level of significance. Data collected was analysed using Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) and Regression Analysis. The findings revealed that there was a positive relationship between resiliency and social adjustment: r (298) = .402, p<0.01, r2 = .162; that there was a positive relationship between peer support and social adjustment: r (298) = .570, p<0.01, r2 = .325; that there was a positive relationship between parental support and social adjustment: r (298) = .451, p<0.01, r2 = .203; also reveals significant joint contribution of the independent variables (resilience, peer support, parental support) to the prediction of social adjustment: F (3,296) = 55.587, P<0.01. Various recommendations were given which includes the roles of government, agencies, individuals, parents, teachers, religious and marriage institutions.

Keywords: resiliency, peer support, parental support, adolescents, social adjustment

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Milad Sadeghpoor Moalem, Mahmood Zakeri Niri, Leili Sadeghi Khalegh Abadi

Abstract:

While there are many benefits to using reservoir dams, their break leads to destructive effects. From the viewpoint of International Committee of Large Dams (ICOLD), dam break means the collapse of whole or some parts of a dam; thereby the dam will be unable to hold water. Therefore, studying dam break phenomenon and prediction of its behavior and effects reduces losses and damages of the mentioned phenomenon. One of the most common types of reservoir dams is embankment dam. Overtopping in embankment dams occurs because of flood discharge system inability in release inflows to reservoir. One of the most important issues among managers and engineers to evaluate the performance of the reservoir dam rim when sliding into the storage, creating waves is large and long. In this study, the effects of floods which caused the overtopping of the dam have been investigated. It was assumed that spillway is unable to release the inflow. To determine outflow hydrograph resulting from dam break, numerical model using Flow-3D software and empirical equations was used. Results of numerical models and their comparison with empirical equations show that numerical model and empirical equations can be used to study the flood resulting from dam break.

Keywords: embankment dam break, empirical equations, Taleghan dam, Flow-3D numerical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Reena Murali, David Peter S.

Abstract:

The small interfering RNA (siRNA) alters the regulatory role of mRNA during gene expression by translational inhibition. Recent studies shows that up regulation of mRNA cause serious diseases like Cancer. So designing effective siRNA with good knockdown effects play an important role in gene silencing. Various siRNA design tools had been developed earlier. In this work, we are trying to analyze the existing good scoring second generation siRNA predicting tools and to optimize the efficiency of siRNA prediction by designing a computational model using Artificial Neural Network and whole stacking energy (ΔG), which may help in gene silencing and drug design in cancer therapy. Our model is trained and tested against a large data set of siRNA sequences. Validation of our results is done by finding correlation coefficient of experimental versus observed inhibition efficacy of siRNA. We achieved a correlation coefficient of 0.727 in our previous computational model and we could improve the correlation coefficient up to 0.753 when the threshold of whole tacking energy is greater than or equal to -32.5 kcal/mol.

Keywords: artificial neural network, double stranded RNA, RNA interference, short interfering RNA

Procedia PDF Downloads 526

Authors: Jia-Jang Wu

Abstract:

This paper presents the scaling laws that provide the criteria of geometry and dynamic similitude between the full-size rotor-shaft system and its scale model, and can be used to predict the torsional vibration characteristics of the full-size rotor-shaft system by manipulating the corresponding data of its scale model. The scaling factors, which play fundamental roles in predicting the geometry and dynamic relationships between the full-size rotor-shaft system and its scale model, for torsional free vibration problems between scale and full-size rotor-shaft systems are firstly obtained from the equation of motion of torsional free vibration. Then, the scaling factor of external force (i.e., torque) required for the torsional forced vibration problems is determined based on the Newton’s second law. Numerical results show that the torsional free and forced vibration characteristics of a full-size rotor-shaft system can be accurately predicted from those of its scale models by using the foregoing scaling factors. For this reason, it is believed that the presented approach will be significant for investigating the relevant phenomenon in the scale model tests.

Keywords: torsional vibration, full-size model, scale model, scaling laws

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Tawfik Thelaidjia, Salah Chenikher

Abstract:

Bearing fault diagnosis has attracted significant attention over the past few decades. It consists of two major parts: vibration signal feature extraction and condition classification for the extracted features. In this paper, feature extraction from faulty bearing vibration signals is performed by a combination of the signal’s Kurtosis and features obtained through the preprocessing of the vibration signal samples using Db2 discrete wavelet transform at the fifth level of decomposition. In this way, a 7-dimensional vector of the vibration signal feature is obtained. After feature extraction from vibration signal, the support vector machine (SVM) was applied to automate the fault diagnosis procedure. To improve the classification accuracy for bearing fault prediction, particle swarm optimization (PSO) is employed to simultaneously optimize the SVM kernel function parameter and the penalty parameter. The results have shown feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach

Keywords: condition monitoring, discrete wavelet transform, fault diagnosis, kurtosis, machine learning, particle swarm optimization, roller bearing, rotating machines, support vector machine, vibration measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: Tamas Garamhegyi, Jozsef Kovacs, Rita Pongracz, Peter Tanos, Balazs Trasy, Norbert Magyar, Istvan G. Hatvani

Abstract:

Like most environmental processes, shallow groundwater fluctuation under natural circumstances also behaves periodically. With the statistical tools at hand, it can easily be determined if a period exists in the data or not. Thus, the question may be raised: Does the estimated average period time characterize the whole time period, or not? This is especially important in the case of such complex phenomena as shallow groundwater fluctuation, driven by numerous factors. Because of the continuous changes in the oscillating components of shallow groundwater time series, the most appropriate method should be used to investigate its periodicity, this is wavelet spectrum analysis. The aims of the research were to investigate the periodic behavior of the shallow groundwater time series of an agriculturally important and drought sensitive region in Central-Eastern Europe and its relationship to the European pressure action centers. During the research ~216 shallow groundwater observation wells located in the eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain with a temporal coverage of 50 years were scanned for periodicity. By taking the full-time interval as 100%, the presence of any period could be determined in percentages. With the complex hydrogeological/meteorological model developed in this study, non-periodic time intervals were found in the shallow groundwater levels. On the local scale, this phenomenon linked to drought conditions, and on a regional scale linked to the maxima of the regional air pressures in the Gulf of Genoa. The study documented an important link between shallow groundwater levels and climate variables/indices facilitating the necessary adaptation strategies on national and/or regional scales, which have to take into account the predictions of drought-related climatic conditions.

Keywords: climate change, drought, groundwater periodicity, wavelet spectrum and coherence analyses

Procedia PDF Downloads 387

Authors: Somyoung Shin, Donghun Jeong, Yeoil Yun

Abstract:

South Korea continuously installed tunnels in consideration of the safety and operation efficiency, and the number of installed tunnels has doubled over the past ten years. The tunnel section is designed based on the guidelines, but the tunnel entrance becomes narrow due to dark adaptation and pressure. In fact, around 13% of traffic in expressways of Japan happens at the entrance, leading to congestion and rear-ends collision accidents. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the stability from the expansion of the shoulder width in the tunnel entrance by applying a virtual reality driving simulator in order to reduce the accidents that happen in the tunnel entrance. To compare the driving stability based on the changes in the width of the right shoulder under the same condition, a virtual reality driving simulator is used to conduct an experiment on 30 subjects in their 20s to 60s and to provide a more practical virtual reality driving environment, and an experiment map is designed based on actual roads as the background to conduct the experiment. The right shoulder is classified into 2.5m and 3.0m based on the design guidelines of the expressways and the road structure installation regulations. The experimenters' experiment order is decided randomly. As a result of analyzing the average speed, it was displayed as 100.73km/h when the shoulder width was 2.5m and 101.69km/h when the shoulder width was 3.0m and as a result of conducting t-test analysis, the p-value appeared as more than 0.05 in the significance level of 95%, so it was statistically insignificant. Also, as a result of analyzing the speed deviation between the average driving speed of the analyzed interval and the average driving speed upon entering the tunnel, it was displayed as 3.06km/h when the shoulder width was 2.5m and 1.87km/h when the shoulder width was 3.0m and as a result of conducting t-test analysis, the p-value appeared as less than 0.05 in the significance level of 95%, so it was statistically significant. This means that when the shoulder width is 3.0m, there is stability in terms of the driving stability compared to when it is 2.5m. Therefore, it is considered that when new roads are constructed in Korea, the right shoulder width should be installed as 3.0m to enhance the driving stability.

Keywords: driving stability, shoulder width, tunnel, virtual reality driving simulator

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Yosra Mefteh Rekik, Younes Boujelbene

Abstract:

We introduce in this paper a new conceptual model representing the stock market dynamics. This model is essentially based on cognitive behavior of the intelligence investors. In order to validate our model, we build an artificial stock market simulation based on agent-oriented methodologies. The proposed simulator is composed of market supervisor agent essentially responsible for executing transactions via an order book and various kinds of investor agents depending to their profile. The purpose of this simulation is to understand the influence of psychological character of an investor and its neighborhood on its decision-making and their impact on the market in terms of price fluctuations. Therefore, the difficulty of the prediction is due to several features: the complexity, the non-linearity and the dynamism of the financial market system, as well as the investor psychology. The Artificial Neural Networks learning mechanism take on the role of traders, who from their futures return expectations and place orders based on their expectations. The results of intensive analysis indicate that the existence of agents having heterogeneous beliefs and preferences has provided a better understanding of price dynamics in the financial market.

Keywords: artificial intelligence methods, artificial stock market, behavioral modeling, multi-agent based simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 446

Authors: Fares Laouacheria, Said Kechida, Moncef Chabi

Abstract:

The objective of the study was based on the hydrological routing modelling for the continuous monitoring of the hydrological situation in the Moudjar river catchment, especially during floods with Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modelling Systems (HEC-HMS). The HEC-GeoHMS was used to transform data from geographic information system (GIS) to HEC-HMS for delineating and modelling the catchment river in order to estimate the runoff volume, which is used as inputs to the hydrological routing model. Two hydrological routing models were used, namely Muskingum and Muskingum routing models, for conducting this study. In this study, a comparison between the parameters of the Muskingum and Muskingum-Cunge routing models in HEC-HMS was used for modelling flood routing in the Moudjar river catchment and determining the relationship between these parameters and the physical characteristics of the river. The results indicate that the effects of input parameters such as the weighting factor "X" and travel time "K" on the output results are more significant, where the Muskingum routing model was more sensitive to input parameters than the Muskingum-Cunge routing model. This study can contribute to understand and improve the knowledge of the mechanisms of river floods, especially in ungauged river catchments.

Keywords: HEC-HMS, hydrological modelling, Muskingum routing model, Muskingum-Cunge routing model

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Yi-Shiuan Chiu

Abstract:

Deaf signers have been found to have better mental image performance than hearing nonsigners. The goal of this study was to investigate the ability to generate mental images, to maintain them, and to manipulate them in deaf signers of Taiwanese Sign Language (TSL). In the visual image task, participants first memorized digits formed in a cell of 4 × 5 grids. After presenting a cue of Chinese digit character shown on the top of a blank cell, participants had to form a corresponding digit. When showing a probe, which was a grid containing a red circle, participants had to decide as quickly as possible whether the probe would have been covered by the mental image of the digit. The ISI (interstimulus interval) between cue and probe was manipulated. In experiment 1, 24 deaf signers and 24 hearing nonsigners were asked to perform image generation tasks (ISI: 200, 400 ms) and image maintenance tasks (ISI: 800, 2000 ms). The results showed that deaf signers had had an enhanced ability to generate and maintain a mental image. To explore the process of mental image, in experiment 2, 30 deaf signers and 30 hearing nonsigners were asked to do visual searching when maintaining a mental image. Between a digit image cue and a red circle probe, participants were asked to search a visual search task to see if a target triangle apex was directed to the right or left. When there was only one triangle in the searching task, the results showed that both deaf signers and hearing non-signers had similar visual searching performance in which the searching targets in the mental image locations got facilitates. However, deaf signers could maintain better and faster mental image performance than nonsigners. In experiment 3, we increased the number of triangles to 4 to raise the difficulty of the visual search task. The results showed that deaf participants performed more accurately in visual search and image maintenance tasks. The results suggested that people may use eye movements as a mnemonic strategy to maintain the mental image. And deaf signers had enhanced abilities to resist the interference of eye movements in the situation of fewer distractors. In sum, these findings suggested that deaf signers had enhanced mental image processing.

Keywords: deaf signers, image maintain, mental image, visual search

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Khachen Kongpakwattana, Charungthai Dejthevaporn, Orapitchaya Krairit, Piyameth Dilokthornsakul, Devi Mohan, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk

Abstract:

Background: Although an increase in the burden of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is evident worldwide, knowledge of costs and health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) associated with AD in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) is still lacking. We, therefore, aimed to collect real-world cost and HR-QoL data, and investigate their associations with multiple disease-severity indicators among AD patients in Thailand. Methods: We recruited AD patients aged ≥ 60 years accompanied by their caregivers at a university-affiliated tertiary hospital. A one-time structured interview was conducted to collect disease-severity indicators, HR-QoL and caregiving information using standardized tools. The hospital’s database was used to retrieve healthcare resource utilization occurred over 6 months preceding the interview date. Costs were annualized and stratified based on cognitive status. Generalized linear models were employed to evaluate determinants of costs and HR-QoL. Results: Among 148 community-dwelling patients, average annual total societal costs of AD care were 8,014 US$ [95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): 7,295 US$ - 8,844 US$] per patient. Total costs of patients with severe stage (9,860 US$; 95% CI: 8,785 US$ - 11,328 US$) were almost twice as high as those of mild stage (5,524 US$; 95% CI: 4,649 US$ - 6,593 US$). The major cost driver was direct medical costs, particularly those incurred by AD prescriptions. Functional status was the strongest determinant for both total costs and patient’s HR-QoL (p-value < 0.001). Conclusions: Our real-world findings suggest the distinct major cost driver which results from expensive AD treatment, emphasizing the demand for country-specific cost evidence. Increases in cognitive and functional status are significantly associated with decreases in total costs of AD care and improvement on patient’s HR-QoL.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, associations, costs, disease-severity indicators, health-related quality of life

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: I. Gusti Agung Aditya Surya Wibawa, Andri Syafriya, Beiruny Syam

Abstract:

Gumai Formation which acts as regional seal for Talang Akar Formation becomes one of the most prolific reservoir in South Sumatra Basin and the primary exploration target in this area. Marine conditions were eventually established during the continuation of transgression sequence leads an open marine facies deposition in Early Miocene. Marine clastic deposits where calcareous shales, claystone and siltstones interbedded with fine-grained calcareous and glauconitic sandstones are the domination of lithology which targeted as the hydrocarbon reservoir. All this time, the main objective of PetroChina’s exploration and production in Betara area is only from Lower Talang Akar Formation. Successful testing in some exploration wells which flowed gas & condensate from Gumai Formation, opened the opportunity to optimize new reservoir objective in Betara area. Limitation of conventional wireline logs data in Gumai interval is generating technical challenge in term of geological approach. A utilization of Gas While Drilling indicator initiated with the objective to determine the next Gumai reservoir candidate which capable to increase Jabung hydrocarbon discoveries. This paper describes how Gas While Drilling indicator is processed to generate potential and non-potential zone by cut-off analysis. Validation which performed by correlation and comparison with well logs, Drill Stem Test (DST), and Reservoir Performance Monitor (RPM) data succeed to observe Gumai reservoir in Betara Complex. After we integrated all of data, we are able to generate a Betara Complex potential map and overlaid with reservoir characterization distribution as a part of risk assessment in term of potential zone presence. Mud log utilization and geophysical data information successfully covered the geological challenges in this study.

Keywords: Gumai, gas while drilling, classification, reservoir, potential

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Daniela Prado, Lexi Frankel, Amalia Ardeljan, Lokesh Manjani, Matthew Cardeiro, Omar Rashid

Abstract:

Background: Clostridium difficile (C. diff) is a gram-positive bacterium that is known to cause life-threatening diarrhea and severe inflammation of the colon. It originates as an alteration of the gut microbiome and can be transmitted through spores. Recent studies have shown a high association between the development of C. diff in cancer patients due to extensive hospitalization. However, research is lacking regarding C. diff’s association in the causation or prevention of cancer. The objective of this study was to therefore assess the correlation between Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and the incidence of bone cancer. Methods: This retrospective analysis used data provided by a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) compliant national database to evaluate the patients infected versus patients not infected with C. diff using ICD-10 and ICD-9 codes. Access to the database was granted by the Holy Cross Health, Fort Lauderdale, for the purpose of academic research. Standard statistical methods were used. Results: Between January 2010 and December 2019, the query was analyzed and resulted in 78863 patients in both the infected and control group, respectively. The two groups were matched by age range and CCI score. The incidence of bone cancer was 659 patients (0.835%) in the C. diff group compared to 1941 patients (2.461%) in the control group. The difference was statistically significant by a P-value < 2.2x10^-16 with an odds ratio (OR)= 0.33 (0.31-0.37) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Treatment for CDI was analyzed for both C. diff infected and noninfected populations. 91 out of 16,676 (0.55%) patients with a prior C. diff infection and treated with antibiotics were compared to the control group were 275 out of 16,676 (1.65%) patients with no history of CDI and received antibiotic treatment. Results remained statistically significant by P-value <2.2x10-16 with an OR= 0.42 (0.37, 0.48). and a 95% CI. Conclusion: The study shows a statistically significant correlation between C. diff and a reduced incidence of bone cancer. Further evaluation is recommended to assess the potential of C. difficile in reducing bone cancer incidence.

Keywords: bone cancer, colitis, clostridium difficile, microbiome

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: S. Jursová, P. Pustějovská, S. Brožová, J. Bilík

Abstract:

The paper deals with possibilities of interpretation of iron ore reducibility tests. It presents a mathematical model developed at Centre ENET, VŠB–Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic for an evaluation of metallurgical material of blast furnace feedstock such as iron ore, sinter or pellets. According to the data from the test, the model predicts its usage in blast furnace technology and its effects on production parameters of shaft aggregate. At the beginning, the paper sums up the general concept and experience in mathematical modelling of iron ore reduction. It presents basic equation for the calculation and the main parts of the developed model. In the experimental part, there is an example of usage of the mathematical model. The paper describes the usage of data for some predictive calculation. There are presented material, method of carried test of iron ore reducibility. Then there are graphically interpreted effects of used material on carbon consumption, rate of direct reduction and the whole reduction process.

Keywords: blast furnace technology, iron ore reduction, mathematical model, prediction of iron ore reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 674

Authors: Saoussen Dhib, Chris M. Mannaerts, Zoubeida Bargaoui, Ben H. P. Maathuis, Petra Budde

Abstract:

In this study, a new method to delineate rain areas in northern Tunisia is presented. The proposed approach is based on the blending of the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) infrared channel (IR) with the low-earth orbiting passive Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). To blend this two products, we need to apply two main steps. Firstly, we have to identify the rainy pixels. This step is achieved based on a classification using MSG channel IR 10.8 and the water vapor WV 0.62, applying a threshold on the temperature difference of less than 11 Kelvin which is an approximation of the clouds that have a high likelihood of precipitation. The second step consists on fitting the relation between IR cloud top temperature with the TMI rain rates. The correlation coefficient of these two variables has a negative tendency, meaning that with decreasing temperature there is an increase in rainfall intensity. The fitting equation will be applied for the whole day of MSG 15 minutes interval images which will be summed. To validate this combined product, daily extreme rainfall events occurred during the period 2007-2009 were selected, using a threshold criterion for large rainfall depth (> 50 mm/day) occurring at least at one rainfall station. Inverse distance interpolation method was applied to generate rainfall maps for the drier summer season (from May to October) and the wet winter season (from November to April). The evaluation results of the estimated rainfall combining MSG and TMI was very encouraging where all the events were detected rainy and the correlation coefficients were much better than previous evaluated products over the study area such as MSGMPE and PERSIANN products. The combined product showed a better performance during wet season. We notice also an overestimation of the maximal estimated rain for many events.

Keywords: combination, extreme, rainfall, TMI-MSG, Tunisia

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Mochache Vernon, Mwakusema Omar, Lakhani Amyn, El Busaidy Hajara, Temmerman Marleen, Gichangi Peter

Abstract:

Background: Utilization of contraceptive methods has been associated with improved maternal and child health (MCH) outcomes. Unfortunately, there has been sub-optimal uptake of contraceptive services in the developing world despite significant resources being dedicated accordingly. It is imperative to granulate factors that could influence uptake and utilization of contraception. Methodology: Between March and December 2015, we conducted a mixed-methods cross-sectional study among women of reproductive age (18-45 years) from a pre-dominantly rural coastal Kenyan community. Qualitative approaches involved focus group discussions as well as a series of key-informant interviews. We also administered a sexual and reproductive health survey questionnaire at the household level. Results: We interviewed 745 women from 15 villages in Kwale County. The median (interquartile range, IQR) age was 29 (23-37) while 76% reported being currently in a marital union. Eighty-seven percent and 85% of respondents reported ever attending school and ever giving birth, respectively. Respondents who had ever attended school were more than twice as likely to be using contraceptive methods [Odds Ratio, OR = 2.1, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.4-3.4, P = 0.001] while those who had ever given birth were five times as likely to be using these methods [OR = 5.0, 95% CI: 1.7-15.0, P = 0.004]. The odds were similarly high among women who reported attending antenatal care (ANC) [OR = 4.0, 95% CI: 1.1-14.8, P = 0.04] as well as those who expressly stated that they did not want any more children or wanted to wait longer before getting another child [OR = 6.7, 95% CI: 3.3-13.8, P<0.0001]. Interviewees reported deferring to the ‘wisdom’ of an older maternal figure in the decision-making process. Conclusions: Uptake and utilization of contraceptive methods among Digo women from Kwale, Kenya is positively associated with demand-side factors including educational attainment, previous birth experience, ANC attendance and a negative future fertility desire. Interventions to improve contraceptive services should focus on engaging dominant maternal figures in the community.

Keywords: unmet need, utilization of contraceptive methods, women, Digo community

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Jeongil Kim

Abstract:

The present study examined the effects of arts-mediated mother-child dyads mindfulness-based intervention for Korean children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and their mothers, on behaviors in children and subjective psychological states in mothers. Four elementary school boys with ADHD and their mothers participated in the study. Using a multiple baseline design across four mother-child dyads, data were collected on the target behaviors (disruptive behavior, on-task behavior, and compliance in class) in children using a 10-second partial interval recording system and on the subjective psychological states in mothers using four questionnaires (on perceived stress, burnout, mindfulness, and satisfaction with life). The intervention consisted of a) mindfulness training, b) mindfulness practice, and c) mindful management of body and feeling. The arts activities, making a coiled clay pot and Korean traditional music performance, were utilized to facilitate the environment to help each participant to understand the content and progress of the intervention program. The results showed that all four dyads showed improvement in adaptive behaviors in the children (increase in on-task behavior; decrease in disruptive behavior) and positive change in subjective psychological states in the mothers (increase in scores of mindfulness and satisfaction with life; decrease in scores of perceived stress and burnout). The changes in the children’s behaviors and in the mothers’ subjective psychological states were maintained when the intervention was drawn and generalized in novel settings. The results suggest that arts-mediated mother-child dyads mindfulness-based intervention would be a mutual benefiting strategy to support both children with ADHD and their mothers who experience diverse challenges in behavioral and psychological aspects.

Keywords: mindfulness, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), arts-mediated, behavior, psychological well-being, child-mother

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Sina Fadaie, Seyed Abolhassan Naeini

Abstract:

Coastal embankments play an important role in coastal structures by reducing the effect of the wave forces and controlling the movement of sediments. Many coastal areas are underlain by weak and compressible soils. Estimation of during construction settlement of coastal embankments is highly important in design and safety control of embankments and appurtenant structures. Accordingly, selecting and establishing of an appropriate model with a reasonable level of complication is one of the challenges for engineers. Although there are advanced models in the literature regarding design of embankments, there is not enough information on the prediction of their associated settlement, particularly in coastal areas having considerable soft soils. Marine engineering study in Iran is important due to the existence of two important coastal areas located in the northern and southern parts of the country. In the present study, the validity of Terzaghi’s consolidation theory has been investigated. In addition, the settlement of these coastal embankments during construction is predicted by using special methods in PLAXIS software by the help of appropriate boundary conditions and soil layers. The results indicate that, for the existing soil condition at the site, some parameters are important to be considered in analysis. Consequently, a model is introduced to estimate the settlement of the embankments in such geotechnical conditions.

Keywords: consolidation, settlement, coastal embankments, numerical methods, finite elements method

Procedia PDF Downloads 161