Search results for: quantity estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2819

Search results for: quantity estimation

1019 Fatty Acid Structure and Composition Effects of Biodiesel on Its Oxidative Stability

Authors: Gelu Varghese, Khizer Saeed

Abstract:

Biodiesel is as a mixture of mono-alkyl esters of long chain fatty acids derived from vegetable oils or animal fats. Recent studies in the literature suggest that end property of biodiesel such as its oxidative stability (OS) is highly influenced by the structure and composition of its alkyl esters than by environmental conditions. The structure and composition of these long chain fatty acid components have been also associated with trends in Cetane number, heat of combustion, cold flow properties viscosity, and lubricity. In the present work, detailed investigation has been carried out to decouple and correlate the fatty acid structure indices of biodiesel such as degree of unsaturation, chain length, double bond orientation, and composition with its oxidative stability. Measurements were taken using the EN14214 established Rancimat oxidative stability test method (EN141120). Firstly, effects of the degree of unsaturation, chain length and bond orientation were tested for the pure fatty acids to establish their oxidative stability. Results for pure Fatty acid show that Saturated FAs are more stable than unsaturated ones to oxidation; superior oxidative stability can be achieved by blending biodiesel fuels with relatively high in saturated fatty acid contents. A lower oxidative stability is noticed when a greater quantity of double bonds is present in the methyl ester. A strong inverse relationship with the number of double bonds and the Rancimat IP values can be identified. Trans isomer Methyl elaidate shows superior stability to oxidation than its cis isomer methyl oleate (7.2 vs. 2.3). Secondly, the effects of the variation in the composition of the biodiesel were investigated and established. Finally, biodiesels with varying structure and composition were investigated and correlated.

Keywords: biodiesel, fame, oxidative stability, fatty acid structure, acid composition

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1018 Development of Integrated Solid Waste Management Plan for Industrial Estates of Pakistan

Authors: Mehak Masood

Abstract:

This paper aims to design an integrated solid waste management plan for industrial estates taking Sundar Industrial Estate as case model. The issue of solid waste management is on the rise in Pakistan especially in the industrial sector. In this regard, the concept of development and establishment of industrial estates is gaining popularity nowadays. Without proper solid waste management plan it is very difficult to manage day to day affairs of industrial estates. An industrial estate contains clusters of different types of industrial units. It is necessary to identify different types of solid waste streams from each industrial cluster within the estate. In this study, Sundar Industrial Estate was taken as a case model. Primary and secondary data collection, waste assessment, waste segregation and weighing and field surveys were essential elements of the study. Wastes from each industrial process were identified and quantified. Currently 130 industries are in production but after full colonization of industries this number would reach 385. Elaborated process flow diagrams were made to characterize the recyclable and non-recyclables waste. From the study it was calculated that about 12354.1 kg/captia/day of solid waste is being generated in Sundar Industrial Estate. After the full colonization of the industrial estate, the estimated quantity will be 4756328.5 kg/captia/day. Furthermore, solid waste generated from each industrial sector was estimated. Suggestions for collection and transportation are given. Environment friendly solid waste management practices are suggested. If an effective integrated waste management system is developed and implemented it will conserve resources, create jobs, reduce poverty, conserve natural resources, protect the environment, save collection, transportation and disposal costs and extend the life of disposal sites. A major outcome of this study is an integrated solid waste management plan for the Sundar Industrial Estate which requires immediate implementation.

Keywords: integrated solid waste management plan, industrial estates, Sundar Industrial Estate, Pakistan

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1017 Analyzing the Effects of Supply and Demand Shocks in the Spanish Economy

Authors: José M Martín-Moreno, Rafaela Pérez, Jesús Ruiz

Abstract:

In this paper we use a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) for the Spanish economy to search for a deeper characterization of the determinants of Spain’s macroeconomic fluctuations throughout the period 1970-2008. In order to do this, we distinguish between tradable and non-tradable goods to take into account the fact that the presence of non-tradable goods in this economy is one of the largest in the world. We estimate a DSGE model with supply and demand shocks (sectorial productivity, public spending, international real interest rate and preferences) using Kalman Filter techniques. We find the following results. First of all, our variance decomposition analysis suggests that 1) the preference shock basically accounts for private consumption volatility, 2) the idiosyncratic productivity shock accounts for non-tradable output volatility, and 3) the sectorial productivity shock along with the international interest rate both greatly account for tradable output. Secondly, the model closely replicates the time path observed in the data for the Spanish economy and finally, the model captures the main cyclical qualitative features of this economy reasonably well.

Keywords: business cycle, DSGE models, Kalman filter estimation, small open economy

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1016 Sensor Monitoring of the Concentrations of Different Gases Present in Synthesis of Ammonia Based on Multi-Scale Entropy and Multivariate Statistics

Authors: S. Aouabdi, M. Taibi

Abstract:

The supervision of chemical processes is the subject of increased development because of the increasing demands on reliability and safety. An important aspect of the safe operation of chemical process is the earlier detection of (process faults or other special events) and the location and removal of the factors causing such events, than is possible by conventional limit and trend checks. With the aid of process models, estimation and decision methods it is possible to also monitor hundreds of variables in a single operating unit, and these variables may be recorded hundreds or thousands of times per day. In the absence of appropriate processing method, only limited information can be extracted from these data. Hence, a tool is required that can project the high-dimensional process space into a low-dimensional space amenable to direct visualization, and that can also identify key variables and important features of the data. Our contribution based on powerful techniques for development of a new monitoring method based on multi-scale entropy MSE in order to characterize the behaviour of the concentrations of different gases present in synthesis and soft sensor based on PCA is applied to estimate these variables.

Keywords: ammonia synthesis, concentrations of different gases, soft sensor, multi-scale entropy, multivarite statistics

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1015 Building Information Modeling Implementation for Managing an Extra Large Governmental Building Renovation Project

Authors: Pornpote Nusen, Manop Kaewmoracharoen

Abstract:

In recent years, there was an observable shift in fully developed countries from constructing new buildings to modifying existing buildings. The issue was that although an effective instrument like BIM (Building Information Modeling) was well developed for constructing new buildings, it was not widely used to renovate old buildings. BIM was accepted as an effective means to overcome common managerial problems such as project delay, cost overrun, and poor quality of the project life cycle. It was recently introduced in Thailand and rarely used in a renovation project. Today, in Thailand, BIM is mostly used for creating aesthetic 3D models and quantity takeoff purposes, though it can be an effective tool to use as a project management tool in planning and scheduling. Now the governmental sector in Thailand begins to recognize the uses of using BIM to manage a construction project, but the knowledge about the BIM implementation to governmental construction projects is underdeveloped. Further studies need to be conducted to maximize its advantages for the governmental sector. An educational extra large governmental building of 17,000 square-meters was used in this research. It is currently under construction for a two-year renovation project. BIM models of the building for the exterior and interior areas were created for the whole five floors. Then 4D BIM with combination of 3D BIM plus time was created for planning and scheduling. Three focus groups had been done with executive committee, contractors, and officers of the building to discuss the possibility of usage and usefulness of BIM approach over the traditional process. Several aspects were discussed in the positive sides, especially several foreseen problems, such as the inadequate accessibility of ways, the altered ceiling levels, the impractical construction plan created through a traditional approach, and the lack of constructability information. However, for some parties, the cost of BIM implementation was a concern, though, this study believes, its uses outweigh the cost.

Keywords: building information modeling, extra large building, governmental building renovation, project management, renovation, 4D BIM

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1014 Simultaneous Extraction and Estimation of Steroidal Glycosides and Aglycone of Solanum

Authors: Karishma Chester, Sarvesh Paliwal, Sayeed Ahmad

Abstract:

Solanumnigrum L. (Family: Solanaceae), is an important Indian medicinal plant and have been used in various traditional formulations for hepato-protection. It has been reported to contain significant amount of steroidal glycosides such as solamargine and solasonine as well as their aglycone part solasodine. Being important pharmacologically active metabolites of several members of Solanaceae these markers have been attempted various times for their extraction and quantification but separately for glycoside and aglycone part because of their opposite polarity. Here, we propose for the first time simultaneous extraction and quantification of aglycone (solasodine)and glycosides (solamargine and solasonine) inleaves and berries of S.nigrumusing solvent extraction followed by HPTLC analysis. Simultaneous extraction was carried out by sonication in mixture of chloroform and methanol as solvent. The quantification was done using silica gel 60F254HPTLC plates as stationary phase and chloroform: methanol: acetone: 0.5 % ammonia (7: 2.5: 1: 0.4 v/v/v/v) as mobile phaseat 400 nm, after derivatization with an isaldehydesul furic acid reagent. The method was validated as per ICH guideline for calibration, linearity, precision, recovery, robustness, specificity, LOD, and LOQ. The statistical data obtained for validation showed that method can be used routinely for quality control of various solanaceous drugs reported for these markers as well as traditional formulations containing those plants as an ingredient.

Keywords: solanumnigrum, solasodine, solamargine, solasonine, quantification

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1013 The Impact of Research and Development Cooperation Partner Diversity, Knowledge Source Diversity and Knowledge Source Network Embeddedness on Radical Innovation: Direct Relationships and Interaction with Non-Price Competition

Authors: Natalia Strobel, Jan Kratzer

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In this paper, we test whether different types of research and development (R&D) alliances positively impact the radical innovation performance of firms. We differentiate between the R&D alliances without extern R&D orders and embeddedness in knowledge source network. We test the differences between the domestically diversified R&D alliances and R&D alliances diversified abroad. Moreover, we test how non-price competition influences the impact of domestically diversified R&D alliances, and R&D alliance diversified abroad on radical innovation performance. Our empirical analysis is based on the comprehensive Swiss innovation panel, which allowed us to study 3520 firms between the years between 1996 and 2011 in 3 years intervals. We analyzed the data with a linear estimation with Swamy-Aurora transformation using plm package in R software. Our results show as hypothesized a positive impact of R&D alliances diversity abroad as well as domestically on radical innovation performance. The effect of non-price interaction is in contrast to our hypothesis, not significant. This suggests that diversity of R&D alliances is highly advantageous independent of non-price competition.

Keywords: R&D alliances, partner diversity, knowledge source diversity, non-price competition, absorptive capacity

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1012 Feasibility Studies through Quantitative Methods: The Revamping of a Tourist Railway Line in Italy

Authors: Armando Cartenì, Ilaria Henke

Abstract:

Recently, the Italian government has approved a new law for public contracts and has been laying the groundwork for restarting a planning phase. The government has adopted the indications given by the European Commission regarding the estimation of the external costs within the Cost-Benefit Analysis, and has been approved the ‘Guidelines for assessment of Investment Projects’. In compliance with the new Italian law, the aim of this research was to perform a feasibility study applying quantitative methods regarding the revamping of an Italian tourist railway line. A Cost-Benefit Analysis was performed starting from the quantification of the passengers’ demand potentially interested in using the revamped rail services. The benefits due to the external costs reduction were also estimated (quantified) in terms of variations (with respect to the not project scenario): climate change, air pollution, noises, congestion, and accidents. Estimations results have been proposed in terms of the Measure of Effectiveness underlying a positive Net Present Value equal to about 27 million of Euros, an Internal Rate of Return much greater the discount rate, a benefit/cost ratio equal to 2 and a PayBack Period of 15 years.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, evaluation analysis, demand management, external cost, transport planning, quality

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1011 Building a Comprehensive Repository for Montreal Gamelan Archives

Authors: Laurent Bellemare

Abstract:

After the showcase of traditional Indonesian performing arts at the Vancouver Expo 1986, Canadian universities inherited sets of Indonesian gamelan orchestras and soon began offering courses for music students interested in learning these diverse traditions. Among them, Université de Montréal was offered two sets of Balinese orchestras, a novelty that allowed a community of Montreal gamelan enthusiasts to form and engage with this music. A few generations later, a large body of archives have amassed, framing the history of this niche community’s achievements. This data, scattered in public and private archive collections, comes in various formats: Digital Audio Tape, audio cassettes, Video Home System videotape, digital files, photos, reel-to-reel audiotape, posters, concert programs, letters, TV shows, reports and more. Attempting to study these documents in order to unearth a chronology of gamelan in Montreal has proven to be challenging since no suitable platform for preservation, storage, and research currently exists. These files are, therefore, hard to find due to their decentralized locations. Additionally, most of the documents in older formats have yet to be digitized. In the case of recent digital files, such as pictures or rehearsal recordings, their locations can be even messier and their quantity overwhelming. Aside from the basic issue of choosing a suitable repository platform, questions of legal rights and methodology arise. For posterity, these documents should nonetheless be digitized, organized, and stored in an easily accessible online repository. This paper aims to underline the various challenges encountered in the early stages of such a project as well as to suggest ways of overcoming the obstacles to a thorough archival investigation.

Keywords: archival work, archives, Balinese gamelan, Canada, Gamelan, Indonesia, Javanese gamelan, Montreal

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1010 Determination of Economic and Ecological Potential of Bio Hydrogen Generated through Dark Photosynthesis Process

Authors: Johannes Full, Martin Reisinger, Alexander Sauer, Robert Miehe

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The use of biogenic residues for the biotechnological production of chemical energy carriers for electricity and heat generation as well as for mobile applications is an important lever for the shift away from fossil fuels towards a carbon dioxide neutral post-fossil future. A multitude of promising biotechnological processes needs, therefore, to be compared against each other. For this purpose, a multi-objective target system and a corresponding methodology for the evaluation of the underlying key figures are presented in this paper, which can serve as a basis for decisionmaking for companies and promotional policy measures. The methodology considers in this paper the economic and ecological potential of bio-hydrogen production using the example of hydrogen production from fruit and milk production waste with the purple bacterium R. rubrum (so-called dark photosynthesis process) for the first time. The substrate used in this cost-effective and scalable process is fructose from waste material and waste deposits. Based on an estimation of the biomass potential of such fructose residues, the new methodology is used to compare different scenarios for the production and usage of bio-hydrogen through the considered process. In conclusion, this paper presents, at the example of the promising dark photosynthesis process, a methodology to evaluate the ecological and economic potential of biotechnological production of bio-hydrogen from residues and waste.

Keywords: biofuel, hydrogen, R. rubrum, bioenergy

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1009 Tool for Maxillary Sinus Quantification in Computed Tomography Exams

Authors: Guilherme Giacomini, Ana Luiza Menegatti Pavan, Allan Felipe Fattori Alves, Marcela de Oliveira, Fernando Antonio Bacchim Neto, José Ricardo de Arruda Miranda, Seizo Yamashita, Diana Rodrigues de Pina

Abstract:

The maxillary sinus (MS), part of the paranasal sinus complex, is one of the most enigmatic structures in modern humans. The literature has suggested that MSs function as olfaction accessories, to heat or humidify inspired air, for thermoregulation, to impart resonance to the voice and others. Thus, the real function of the MS is still uncertain. Furthermore, the MS anatomy is complex and varies from person to person. Many diseases may affect the development process of sinuses. The incidence of rhinosinusitis and other pathoses in the MS is comparatively high, so, volume analysis has clinical value. Providing volume values for MS could be helpful in evaluating the presence of any abnormality and could be used for treatment planning and evaluation of the outcome. The computed tomography (CT) has allowed a more exact assessment of this structure, which enables a quantitative analysis. However, this is not always possible in the clinical routine, and if possible, it involves much effort and/or time. Therefore, it is necessary to have a convenient, robust, and practical tool correlated with the MS volume, allowing clinical applicability. Nowadays, the available methods for MS segmentation are manual or semi-automatic. Additionally, manual methods present inter and intraindividual variability. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop an automatic tool to quantity the MS volume in CT scans of paranasal sinuses. This study was developed with ethical approval from the authors’ institutions and national review panels. The research involved 30 retrospective exams of University Hospital, Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University, Brazil. The tool for automatic MS quantification, developed in Matlab®, uses a hybrid method, combining different image processing techniques. For MS detection, the algorithm uses a Support Vector Machine (SVM), by features such as pixel value, spatial distribution, shape and others. The detected pixels are used as seed point for a region growing (RG) segmentation. Then, morphological operators are applied to reduce false-positive pixels, improving the segmentation accuracy. These steps are applied in all slices of CT exam, obtaining the MS volume. To evaluate the accuracy of the developed tool, the automatic method was compared with manual segmentation realized by an experienced radiologist. For comparison, we used Bland-Altman statistics, linear regression, and Jaccard similarity coefficient. From the statistical analyses for the comparison between both methods, the linear regression showed a strong association and low dispersion between variables. The Bland–Altman analyses showed no significant differences between the analyzed methods. The Jaccard similarity coefficient was > 0.90 in all exams. In conclusion, the developed tool to quantify MS volume proved to be robust, fast, and efficient, when compared with manual segmentation. Furthermore, it avoids the intra and inter-observer variations caused by manual and semi-automatic methods. As future work, the tool will be applied in clinical practice. Thus, it may be useful in the diagnosis and treatment determination of MS diseases. Providing volume values for MS could be helpful in evaluating the presence of any abnormality and could be used for treatment planning and evaluation of the outcome. The computed tomography (CT) has allowed a more exact assessment of this structure which enables a quantitative analysis. However, this is not always possible in the clinical routine, and if possible, it involves much effort and/or time. Therefore, it is necessary to have a convenient, robust and practical tool correlated with the MS volume, allowing clinical applicability. Nowadays, the available methods for MS segmentation are manual or semi-automatic. Additionally, manual methods present inter and intraindividual variability. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop an automatic tool to quantity the MS volume in CT scans of paranasal sinuses. This study was developed with ethical approval from the authors’ institutions and national review panels. The research involved 30 retrospective exams of University Hospital, Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University, Brazil. The tool for automatic MS quantification, developed in Matlab®, uses a hybrid method, combining different image processing techniques. For MS detection, the algorithm uses a Support Vector Machine (SVM), by features such as pixel value, spatial distribution, shape and others. The detected pixels are used as seed point for a region growing (RG) segmentation. Then, morphological operators are applied to reduce false-positive pixels, improving the segmentation accuracy. These steps are applied in all slices of CT exam, obtaining the MS volume. To evaluate the accuracy of the developed tool, the automatic method was compared with manual segmentation realized by an experienced radiologist. For comparison, we used Bland-Altman statistics, linear regression and Jaccard similarity coefficient. From the statistical analyses for the comparison between both methods, the linear regression showed a strong association and low dispersion between variables. The Bland–Altman analyses showed no significant differences between the analyzed methods. The Jaccard similarity coefficient was > 0.90 in all exams. In conclusion, the developed tool to automatically quantify MS volume proved to be robust, fast and efficient, when compared with manual segmentation. Furthermore, it avoids the intra and inter-observer variations caused by manual and semi-automatic methods. As future work, the tool will be applied in clinical practice. Thus, it may be useful in the diagnosis and treatment determination of MS diseases.

Keywords: maxillary sinus, support vector machine, region growing, volume quantification

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1008 A Range of Steel Production in Japan towards 2050

Authors: Reina Kawase

Abstract:

Japan set the goal of 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. To consider countermeasures for reducing GHG emission, the production estimation of energy intensive materials, such as steel, is essential. About 50% of steel production is exported in Japan, so it is necessary to consider steel production including export. Steel productions from 2005-2050 in Japan were estimated under various global assumptions based on combination of scenarios such as goods trade scenarios and steel making process selection scenarios. Process selection scenarios decide volume of steel production by process (basic oxygen furnace and electric arc furnace) with considering steel consumption projection, supply-demand balance of steel, and scrap surplus. The range of steel production by process was analyzed. Maximum steel production was estimated under the scenario which consumes scrap in domestic steel production at maximum level. In 2035, steel production reaches 149 million ton because of increase in electric arc furnace steel. However, it decreases towards 2050 and amounts to 120 million ton, which is almost same as a current level. Minimum steel production is under the scenario which assumes technology progress in steel making and supply-demand balance consideration in each region. Steel production decreases from base year and is 44 million ton in 2050.

Keywords: goods trade scenario, steel making process selection scenario, steel production, global warming

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1007 Degree of Bending in Axially Loaded Tubular KT-Joints of Offshore Structures: Parametric Study and Formulation

Authors: Hamid Ahmadi, Shadi Asoodeh

Abstract:

The fatigue life of tubular joints commonly found in offshore industry is not only dependent on the value of hot-spot stress (HSS), but is also significantly influenced by the through-the-thickness stress distribution characterized by the degree of bending (DoB). The determination of DoB values in a tubular joint is essential for improving the accuracy of fatigue life estimation using the stress-life (S–N) method and particularly for predicting the fatigue crack growth based on the fracture mechanics (FM) approach. In the present paper, data extracted from finite element (FE) analyses of tubular KT-joints, verified against experimental data and parametric equations, was used to investigate the effects of geometrical parameters on DoB values at the crown 0˚, saddle, and crown 180˚ positions along the weld toe of central brace in tubular KT-joints subjected to axial loading. Parametric study was followed by a set of nonlinear regression analyses to derive DoB parametric formulas for the fatigue analysis of KT-joints under axial loads. The tubular KT-joint is a quite common joint type found in steel offshore structures. However, despite the crucial role of the DoB in evaluating the fatigue performance of tubular joints, this paper is the first attempt to study and formulate the DoB values in KT-joints.

Keywords: tubular KT-joint, fatigue, degree of bending (DoB), axial loading, parametric formula

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1006 Adverse Curing Conditions and Performance of Concrete: Bangladesh Perspective

Authors: T. Manzur

Abstract:

Concrete is the predominant construction material in Bangladesh. In large projects, stringent quality control procedures are usually followed under the supervision of experienced engineers and skilled labors. However, in the case of small projects and particularly at distant locations from major cities, proper quality control is often an issue. It has been found from experience that such quality related issues mainly arise from inappropriate proportioning of concrete mixes and improper curing conditions. In most cases external curing method is followed which requires supply of adequate quantity of water along with proper protection against evaporation. Often these conditions are found missing in the general construction sites and eventually lead to production of weaker concrete both in terms of strength and durability. In this study, an attempt has been made to investigate the performance of general concreting works of the country when subjected to several adverse curing conditions that are quite common in various small to medium construction sites. A total of six different types of adverse curing conditions were simulated in the laboratory and samples were kept under those conditions for several days. A set of samples was also submerged in normal curing condition having proper supply of curing water. Performance of concrete was evaluated in terms of compressive strength, tensile strength, chloride permeability and drying shrinkage. About 37% and 25% reduction in 28-day compressive and tensile strength were observed respectively, for samples subjected to most adverse curing condition as compared to the samples under normal curing conditions. Normal curing concrete exhibited moderate permeability (close to low permeability) whereas concrete under adverse curing conditions showed very high permeability values. Similar results were also obtained for shrinkage tests. This study, thus, will assist concerned engineers and supervisors to understand the importance of quality assurance during the curing period of concrete.

Keywords: adverse, concrete, curing, compressive strength, drying shrinkage, permeability, tensile strength

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1005 Estimation of Transition and Emission Probabilities

Authors: Aakansha Gupta, Neha Vadnere, Tapasvi Soni, M. Anbarsi

Abstract:

Protein secondary structure prediction is one of the most important goals pursued by bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry; it is highly important in medicine and biotechnology. Some aspects of protein functions and genome analysis can be predicted by secondary structure prediction. This is used to help annotate sequences, classify proteins, identify domains, and recognize functional motifs. In this paper, we represent protein secondary structure as a mathematical model. To extract and predict the protein secondary structure from the primary structure, we require a set of parameters. Any constants appearing in the model are specified by these parameters, which also provide a mechanism for efficient and accurate use of data. To estimate these model parameters there are many algorithms out of which the most popular one is the EM algorithm or called the Expectation Maximization Algorithm. These model parameters are estimated with the use of protein datasets like RS126 by using the Bayesian Probabilistic method (data set being categorical). This paper can then be extended into comparing the efficiency of EM algorithm to the other algorithms for estimating the model parameters, which will in turn lead to an efficient component for the Protein Secondary Structure Prediction. Further this paper provides a scope to use these parameters for predicting secondary structure of proteins using machine learning techniques like neural networks and fuzzy logic. The ultimate objective will be to obtain greater accuracy better than the previously achieved.

Keywords: model parameters, expectation maximization algorithm, protein secondary structure prediction, bioinformatics

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1004 Flood Predicting in Karkheh River Basin Using Stochastic ARIMA Model

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R2).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

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1003 Effects of Neem (Azadirachta indica A. Juss) Kernel Inclusion in Broiler Diet on Growth Performance, Organ Weight and Gut Morphometry

Authors: Olatundun Bukola Ezekiel, Adejumo Olusoji

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A feeding trial was conducted with 100 two-weeks old broiler chicken to evaluate the influence of inclusion in broiler diets at 0, 2.5, 5, 7.5 and 10% neem kernel (used to replace equal quantity of maize) on their performance, organ weight and gut morphometry. The birds were randomly allotted to five dietary treatments, each treatment having four replicates consisting of five broilers in a completely randomized design. The diets were formulated to be iso-nitrogenous (23% CP). Weekly feed intake and changes in body weight were calculated and feed efficiency determined. At the end of the 28-day feeding trial, four broilers per treatment were selected and sacrificed for carcass evaluation. Results were subjected to statistical analysis using the analysis of variance procedures of Statistical Analysis Software The treatment means were presented with group standard errors of means and where significant, were compared using the Duncan multiple range test of the same software. The results showed that broilers fed 2.5% neem kernel inclusion diets had growth performance statistically comparable to those fed the control diet. Birds on 5, 7.5 and 10% neem kernel diets showed significant (P<0.05) increase in relative weight of liver. The absolute weight of spleen also increased significantly (P<0.05) in birds on 10 % neem kernel diet. More than 5 % neem kernel diets gave significant (P<0.05) increase in the relative weight of the kidney. The length of the small intestine significantly increased in birds fed 7.5 and 10% neem kernel diets. Significant differences (P<0.05) did not occur in the length of the large intestine, right and left caeca. It is recommended that neem kernel can be included up to 2.5% in broiler chicken diet without any deleterious effects on the performance and physiological status of the birds.

Keywords: broiler chicken, growth performance, gut morphometry, neem kernel, organ weight

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1002 The Data-Driven Localized Wave Solution of the Fokas-Lenells Equation using PINN

Authors: Gautam Kumar Saharia, Sagardeep Talukdar, Riki Dutta, Sudipta Nandy

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The physics informed neural network (PINN) method opens up an approach for numerically solving nonlinear partial differential equations leveraging fast calculating speed and high precession of modern computing systems. We construct the PINN based on strong universal approximation theorem and apply the initial-boundary value data and residual collocation points to weekly impose initial and boundary condition to the neural network and choose the optimization algorithms adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) and Limited-memory Broyden-Fletcher-Golfard-Shanno (L-BFGS) algorithm to optimize learnable parameter of the neural network. Next, we improve the PINN with a weighted loss function to obtain both the bright and dark soliton solutions of Fokas-Lenells equation (FLE). We find the proposed scheme of adjustable weight coefficients into PINN has a better convergence rate and generalizability than the basic PINN algorithm. We believe that the PINN approach to solve the partial differential equation appearing in nonlinear optics would be useful to study various optical phenomena.

Keywords: deep learning, optical Soliton, neural network, partial differential equation

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1001 An Insite to the Probabilistic Assessment of Reserves in Conventional Reservoirs

Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

Abstract:

The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

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1000 Measurement of the Dynamic Modulus of Elasticity of Cylindrical Concrete Specimens Used for the Cyclic Indirect Tensile Test

Authors: Paul G. Bolz, Paul G. Lindner, Frohmut Wellner, Christian Schulze, Joern Huebelt

Abstract:

Concrete, as a result of its use as a construction material, is not only subject to static loads but is also exposed to variables, time-variant, and oscillating stresses. In order to ensure the suitability of construction materials for resisting these cyclic stresses, different test methods are used for the systematic fatiguing of specimens, like the cyclic indirect tensile test. A procedure is presented that allows the estimation of the degradation of cylindrical concrete specimens during the cyclic indirect tensile test by measuring the dynamic modulus of elasticity in different states of the specimens’ fatigue process. Two methods are used in addition to the cyclic indirect tensile test in order to examine the dynamic modulus of elasticity of cylindrical concrete specimens. One of the methods is based on the analysis of eigenfrequencies, whilst the other one uses ultrasonic pulse measurements to estimate the material properties. A comparison between the dynamic moduli obtained using the three methods that operate in different frequency ranges shows good agreement. The concrete specimens’ fatigue process can therefore be monitored effectively and reliably.

Keywords: concrete, cyclic indirect tensile test, degradation, dynamic modulus of elasticity, eigenfrequency, fatigue, natural frequency, ultrasonic, ultrasound, Young’s modulus

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999 Segregation of Domestic Solid Waste: An Evidence of Households’ Knowledge, Attitude, Behavior, and Challenges from Manipal, India

Authors: Vidya Pratap, Seena Biju, A. Keshavdev

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The ever-increasing quantity and variety of domestic solid waste pose a major challenge to both households as well as to municipal authorities. In keeping with the Indian Prime Minister’s mission of Swachh Bharat (Clean India), the local municipal administration distributed 2 buckets to each household in a residential colony in Manipal (an educational town in southern India). Households were instructed to segregate their waste into wet and dry waste and keep these buckets at their gate for daily collection. This paper captures the knowledge, attitude, and behavior of 145 households along with the challenges they face in segregating their wastes. Survey representatives self-administered a questionnaire based on 107 variables that gathered demographic details, attitude and behavior constructs, knowledge about waste segregation and method of disposal for organic, recyclable and hazardous wastes. The study used descriptive tools to explore the data. While 95% of the respondents preferred good segregation practices, only 86% of them exhibited such behavior. 88% of the families observed had members who were either graduates or post-graduates whereas only 37% of the families had women who were working. In both attitude and behavior, 63% of the households did not have working women. Also, among those who practiced segregation, 7% were observed to not practice segregation in spite of the lady member being at home (The authors of this study in no way intend to name women as responsible for waste segregation at home; this thought is based on the fact that while in conversation with households, all respondents opined that women lead this activity). The findings of the study are intended to add value to the existing perceptions of the municipality regarding citizen behavior towards policy implementation/improvement. India as a country faces roadblocks at many levels of policy implementation. The findings of this study are meant to contribute/clarify about the Clean India drive.

Keywords: attitude, behavior, knowledge, segregation of domestic waste

Procedia PDF Downloads 166
998 Influence of Improved Roughage Quality and Period of Meal Termination on Digesta Load in the Digestive Organs of Goats

Authors: Rasheed A. Adebayo, Mehluli M. Moyo, Ignatius V. Nsahlai

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Ruminants are known to relish roughage for productivity but the effect of its quality on digesta load in rumen, omasum, abomasum and other distal organs of the digestive tract is yet unknown. Reticulorumen fill is a strong indicator for long-term control of intake in ruminants. As such, the measurement and prediction of digesta load in these compartments may be crucial to productivity in the ruminant industry. The current study aimed at determining the effect of (a) diet quality on digesta load in digestive organs of goats, and (b) period of meal termination on the reticulorumen fill and digesta load in other distal compartments of the digestive tract of goats. Goats were fed with urea-treated hay (UTH), urea-sprayed hay (USH) and non-treated hay (NTH). At the end of eight weeks of a feeding trial period, upon termination of a meal in the morning, afternoon or evening, all goats were slaughtered in random groups of three per day to measure reticulorumen fill and digesta loads in other distal compartments of the digestive tract. Both diet quality and period affected (P < 0.05) the measure of reticulorumen fill. However, reticulorumen fill in the evening was larger (P < 0.05) than afternoon, while afternoon was similar (P > 0.05) to morning. Also, diet quality affected (P < 0.05) the wet omasal digesta load, wet abomasum, dry abomasum and dry caecum digesta loads but did not affect (P > 0.05) both wet and dry digesta loads in other compartments of the digestive tract. Period of measurement did not affect (P > 0.05) the wet omasal digesta load, and both wet and dry digesta loads in other compartments of the digestive tract except wet abomasum digesta load (P < 0.05) and dry caecum digesta load (P < 0.05). Both wet and dry reticulorumen fill were correlated (P < 0.05) with omasum (r = 0.623) and (r = 0.723), respectively. In conclusion, reticulorumen fill of goats decreased by improving the roughage quality; and the period of meal termination and measurement of the fill is a key factor to the quantity of digesta load.

Keywords: digesta, goats, meal termination, reticulo-rumen fill

Procedia PDF Downloads 365
997 Aspirin Loaded Poly-L-Lactic Acid Nanofibers and Their Potentials as Small Diameter Vascular Grafts

Authors: Mahboubeh Kabiri, Saba Aslani

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Among various approaches used for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, the occlusion of the small-diameter vascular graft (SDVG) is still an unresolved problem which seeks further research to address them. Though autografts are now the gold standards to be replaced for blocked coronary arteries, they suffer from inadequate quality and quantity. On the other hand, the major problems of the tissue engineered grafts are thrombosis and intimal hyperplasia. Provision of a suitable spatiotemporal release pattern of anticoagulant agents such as heparin and aspirin can be a step forward to overcome such issues . Herein, we fabricated electrospun scaffolds from FDA (Food and Drug Administration) approved poly-L-lactic acid (PLLA) with aspirin loaded into the nanofibers. Also, we surface coated the scaffolds with Amniotic Membrane lysate as a source for natural elastic polymers and a mimic of endothelial basement membrane. The scaffolds were characterized thoroughly structurally and mechanically for their morphology, fiber orientation, tensile strength, hydrophilicity, cytotoxicity, aspirin release and cell attachment support. According to the scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images, the size of fibers ranged from 250 to 500 nm. The scaffolds showed appropriate tensile strength expected for vascular grafts. Cellular attachment, growth, and infiltration were proved using SEM and MTT (3-(4,5-Dimethylthiazol-2-Yl)-2,5-Diphenyltetrazolium Bromide) assay. Drug-loaded scaffolds showed a sustained release profile of aspirin in 7 days. An enhanced cytocompatibility was observed in AM-coated electrospun PLLA fibers compared to uncoated scaffolds. Our results together indicated that AM lysate coated ASA releasing scaffolds have promising potentials for development of a biocompatible SDVG.

Keywords: vascular tissue engineering, vascular grafts, anticoagulant agent, aspirin, amniotic membrane

Procedia PDF Downloads 155
996 Late Neolithic Cemeteries Funerary and Their Indications of Societies Changes and Religion Emergences of Sudan: Qalaat Shanan Site Case Study

Authors: Ahmed Hamid Nassr

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The significant of the old stone ages in the Sudan, seems from the longest times and the large differentiation in antiquities, so many Neolithic cemeteries have been discovered in the Sudan, which the studies revealed costumes’ funerary from the Form of grave and the contents has been contrasted in some elements and constant in the others. Many interpretations of the late Neolithic cemeteries tradition written from the earlier studies, most of them focus of the development and change in the burial from society’s development and ideas of afterlife beginnings. Another emphasis undertaken is the relationship between societies cultural aspects and the environmental conditions of the period; it has been considered that it hyper-affected the development of farming in one way or another. The site of Qalaat Shanan noted in earlier 1990 and excavated by the Author from 2011-2013, the site located north of Khartoum about 170 km in Shendi town. Site setting lies amongst a group of Neolithic sites in the Shendi area, it reflected a succession of various Neolithic activities from the early to the late horizons. Excavation revealed many late Neolithic graves, the adult and child graves show large funerary content, different in quality and quantity, which indicates of societies development and related to religion and ideas about the afterlife. This presentation discusses the variations of the Late Neolithic cemeteries in Galaat Shanan site from the grave form, content and differentiation of the sex and age and compared with other late Neolithic discoveries in Sudan and the Nile valley. The study shows many changes in the graves related to the societies changes in late Neolithic in Sudan, climate and economic subsistence's are well reasons, but also the idea change is the main reason for the changes. That is clear from the variations of grave shape and content in age and sex and might be society’s status and levels.

Keywords: Sudan, Shendi town, Qalaat Shanan, late neolithic, cemeteries, funerary, tradition

Procedia PDF Downloads 274
995 Relative Importance of Contact Constructs to Acute Respiratory Illness in General Population in Hong Kong

Authors: Kin On Kwok, Vivian Wei, Benjamin Cowling, Steven Riley, Jonathan Read

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Background: The role of social contact behavior measured in different contact constructs in the transmission of respiratory pathogens with acute respiratory illness (ARI) remains unclear. We, therefore, aim to depict the individual pattern of ARI in the community and investigate the association between different contact dimensions and ARI in Hong Kong. Methods: Between June 2013 and September 2013, 620 subjects participated in the last two waves of recruitment of the population based longitudinal phone social contact survey. Some of the subjects in this study are from the same household. They are also provided with the symptom diaries to self-report any acute respiratory illness related symptoms between the two days of phone recruitment. Data from 491 individuals who were not infected on the day of phone recruitment and returned the symptom diaries after the last phone recruitment were used for analysis. Results: After adjusting different follow-up periods among individuals, the overall incidence rate of ARI was 1.77 per 100 person-weeks. Over 75% ARI episodes involve running nose, cough, sore throat, which are followed by headache (55%), malagia (35%) and fever (18%). Using a generalized estimating equation framework accounting for the cluster effect of subjects living in the same household, we showed that both daily number of locations visited with contacts and the number of contacts, explained the ARI incidence rate better than only one single contact construct. Conclusion: Our result suggests that it is the intertwining property of contact quantity (number of contacts) and contact intensity (ratio of subject-to-contact) that governs the infection risk by a collective set of respiratory pathogens. Our results provide empirical evidence that multiple contact constructs should be incorporated in the mathematical transmission models to feature a more realistic dynamics of respiratory disease.

Keywords: acute respiratory illness, longitudinal study, social contact, symptom diaries

Procedia PDF Downloads 252
994 Denoising of Motor Unit Action Potential Based on Tunable Band-Pass Filter

Authors: Khalida S. Rijab, Mohammed E. Safi, Ayad A. Ibrahim

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When electrical electrodes are mounted on the skin surface of the muscle, a signal is detected when a skeletal muscle undergoes contraction; the signal is known as surface electromyographic signal (EMG). This signal has a noise-like interference pattern resulting from the temporal and spatial summation of action potentials (AP) of all active motor units (MU) near electrode detection. By appropriate processing (Decomposition), the surface EMG signal may be used to give an estimate of motor unit action potential. In this work, a denoising technique is applied to the MUAP signals extracted from the spatial filter (IB2). A set of signals from a non-invasive two-dimensional grid of 16 electrodes from different types of subjects, muscles, and sex are recorded. These signals will acquire noise during recording and detection. A digital fourth order band- pass Butterworth filter is used for denoising, with a tuned band-pass frequency of suitable choice of cutoff frequencies is investigated, with the aim of obtaining a suitable band pass frequency. Results show an improvement of (1-3 dB) in the signal to noise ratio (SNR) have been achieved, relative to the raw spatial filter output signals for all cases that were under investigation. Furthermore, the research’s goal included also estimation and reconstruction of the mean shape of the MUAP.

Keywords: EMG, Motor Unit, Digital Filter, Denoising

Procedia PDF Downloads 397
993 Modeling Pan Evaporation Using Intelligent Methods of ANN, LSSVM and Tree Model M5 (Case Study: Shahroud and Mayamey Stations)

Authors: Hamidreza Ghazvinian, Khosro Ghazvinian, Touba Khodaiean

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The importance of evaporation estimation in water resources and agricultural studies is undeniable. Pan evaporation are used as an indicator to determine the evaporation of lakes and reservoirs around the world due to the ease of interpreting its data. In this research, intelligent models were investigated in estimating pan evaporation on a daily basis. Shahroud and Mayamey were considered as the studied cities. These two cities are located in Semnan province in Iran. The mentioned cities have dry weather conditions that are susceptible to high evaporation potential. Meteorological data of 11 years of synoptic stations of Shahrood and Mayamey cities were used. The intelligent models used in this study are Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), and M5 tree models. Meteorological parameters of minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmax, Tmin), wind speed (WS), sunshine hours (SH), air pressure (PA), relative humidity (RH) as selected input data and evaporation data from pan (EP) to The output data was considered. 70% of data is used at the education level, and 30 % of the data is used at the test level. Models used with explanation coefficient evaluation (R2) Root of Mean Squares Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results for the two Shahroud and Mayamey stations showed that the above three models' operations are rather appropriate.

Keywords: pan evaporation, intelligent methods, shahroud, mayamey

Procedia PDF Downloads 69
992 Modeling of a UAV Longitudinal Dynamics through System Identification Technique

Authors: Asadullah I. Qazi, Mansoor Ahsan, Zahir Ashraf, Uzair Ahmad

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System identification of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), to acquire its mathematical model, is a significant step in the process of aircraft flight automation. The need for reliable mathematical model is an established requirement for autopilot design, flight simulator development, aircraft performance appraisal, analysis of aircraft modifications, preflight testing of prototype aircraft and investigation of fatigue life and stress distribution etc.  This research is aimed at system identification of a fixed wing UAV by means of specifically designed flight experiment. The purposely designed flight maneuvers were performed on the UAV and aircraft states were recorded during these flights. Acquired data were preprocessed for noise filtering and bias removal followed by parameter estimation of longitudinal dynamics transfer functions using MATLAB system identification toolbox. Black box identification based transfer function models, in response to elevator and throttle inputs, were estimated using least square error   technique. The identification results show a high confidence level and goodness of fit between the estimated model and actual aircraft response.

Keywords: fixed wing UAV, system identification, black box modeling, longitudinal dynamics, least square error

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991 Linking Temporal Changes of Climate Factors with Staple Cereal Yields in Southern Burkina Faso

Authors: Pius Borona, Cheikh Mbow, Issa Ouedraogo

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In the Sahel, climate variability has been associated with a complex web of direct and indirect impacts. This natural phenomenon has been an impediment to agro-pastoral communities who experience uncertainty while involving in farming activities which is also their key source of livelihood. In this scenario, the role of climate variability in influencing the performance, quantity and quality of staple cereals yields, vital for food and nutrition security has been a topic of importance. This response of crops and subsequent yield variability is also a subject of immense debate due to the complexity of crop development at different stages. This complexity is further compounded by influence of slowly changing non-climatic factors. With these challenges in mind, the present paper initially explores the occurrence of climate variability at an inter annual and inter decadal level in South Burkina Faso. This is evidenced by variation of the total annual rainfall and the number of rainy days among other climatic descriptors. Further, it is shown how district-scale cereal yields in the study area including maize, sorghum and millet casually associate variably to the inter-annual variation of selected climate variables. Statistical models show that the three cereals widely depict sensitivity to the length of the growing period and total dry days in the growing season. Maize yields on the other hand relate strongly to the rainfall amount variation (R2=51.8%) showing high moisture dependence during critical growth stages. Our conclusions emphasize on adoption of efficient water utilization platforms especially those that have evidently increased yields and strengthening of forecasts dissemination.

Keywords: climate variability, cereal yields, seasonality, rain fed farming, Burkina Faso, rainfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 197
990 Colour Segmentation of Satellite Imagery to Estimate Total Suspended Solid at Rawa Pening Lake, Central Java, Indonesia

Authors: Yulia Chalri, E. T. P. Lussiana, Sarifuddin Madenda, Bambang Trisakti, Yuhilza Hanum

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Water is a natural resource needed by humans and other living creatures. The territorial water of Indonesia is 81% of the country area, consisting of inland waters and the sea. The research object is inland waters in the form of lakes and reservoirs, since 90% of inland waters are in them, therefore the water quality should be monitored. One of water quality parameters is Total Suspended Solid (TSS). Most of the earlier research did direct measurement by taking the water sample to get TSS values. This method takes a long time and needs special tools, resulting in significant cost. Remote sensing technology has solved a lot of problems, such as the mapping of watershed and sedimentation, monitoring disaster area, mapping coastline change, and weather analysis. The aim of this research is to estimate TSS of Rawa Pening lake in Central Java by using the Lansat 8 image. The result shows that the proposed method successfully estimates the Rawa Pening’s TSS. In situ TSS shows normal water quality range, and so does estimation result of segmentation method.

Keywords: total suspended solid (TSS), remote sensing, image segmentation, RGB value

Procedia PDF Downloads 401