Search results for: long products
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 10146

Search results for: long products

8376 In vitro Antioxidant, Anti-Diabetic and Nutritional Properties of Breynia retusa

Authors: Parimelazhagan Thangaraj

Abstract:

Natural products serves human kind as a source of all drugs and higher plants provide most of these therapeutic agents. These products are widely recognized in the pharmaceutical industry for their broad structural diversity as well as their wide range of pharmacological activities. Euphorbiaceae is one of the important families with significant pharmacological activities, of which many species has been used traditionally for the treatment of various ailments. Breynia retusa belongs to the family Euphorbiaceae is used to cure ailments like body pain, skin inflammation, hyperglycaemia, diarrhoea, dysentery and toothache. Flowers and young leaves of B. retusa are cooked and eaten, roots are used for meningitis. The juice of the stem is used in conjunctivtis and leaves as poultice to hasten suppuration. Based on the strong evidences of traditional uses of Breynia retusa, the present study was focused on neutraceuticals evaluation of the species with special reference to oxidative stress and diabetes. Both leaves and stem of B. retusa were extracted with different solvents and analyzed for radical scavenging ability wherein ABTS.+ (8396.95±1529.01 µM TEAC/g extract), phosphomolybdenum (17.34±0.08 g AAE/100 g extract) and FRAP (6075.66±414.28 µM Fe (II) E/mg extract) assays showed good radical scavenging activity in stem. Furthermore, leaf extracts showed good radical inhibition in DPPH (2.4 µg/mL), metal ion (27.44±0.09 mg EDTAE/g extract) scavenging methods. The α-amylase and α-glucosidase inhibitors are currently used for diabetic treatment as oral hypoglycemic agents. The inhibitory effects of the B. retusa leaf and stem ethyl acetate extracts showed good inhibition on α-amylase (96.25% and 95.69 respectively) and α-glucosidase (54.50% and 50.87% respectively) enzymes compared to standard acarbose. The proximate composition analysis of B. retusa leaves contains higher amount of total carbohydrates (14.08 g Glucose equivalents/100 g sample), ash (19.04 %) and crude fibre (0.52 %). The examination of mineral profile explored that the leaves was rich in calcium (1891 ppm), sulphur (1406 ppm), copper (2600 ppm) and magnesium (778 ppm). Leaves sample revealed very minimal amount of anti-nutrient contents like trypsin (14.08±0.03 TIU/mg protein) and tannin (0.011±0.001 mg TAE/g sample). The low anti nutritional factors may not pose any serious nutritional problems when these leaves are consumed. In conclusion, it is very clear that dietary compounds from B. retusa are suitable and promising for the development of safe food products and natural additives. Based on the studies, it may be concluded that nutritional composition, antioxidant and anti-diabetic activities this species can be used as future therapeutic medicine.

Keywords: Breynia retusa, nutraceuticals, antioxidant, anti diabetic

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8375 Agro-Insurance and Farming Development Opportunities in Georgia

Authors: Tamar Lazariashvili

Abstract:

Introduction: The agro-insurance has great importance for agricultural development in the country. In the article, the insurance market of the Georgian agricultural sector has been studied, the level of interest of farmers with insurance products and the trend of demand for those products are revealed; also, the importance of insurance is substantiated. Methodology: The following research methods are applied in the presented paper: statistical (selection, grouping, observation, trend) and qualitative research (in-depth interview with farmers). They claim that the main reason for aggravation is the low level of trust, less awareness about the conditions of the insurance contract. In order to eradicate distrust towards agro-insurance, it is recommended to increase awareness of insured farmers in terms of an insurance agreement. In the case of disputable issues between insurance companies and the customers (farmers), it is advisable to enact the Mediation Service, which will be able to protect the rights of insured farmers. Main Findings: Insurance companies prefer to deal with large farmers, the number of them is very small in Georgia as the credit market. The government interference in this sector is also a very cautious topic. However, the government can strengthen the awareness of farmers about the characteristics and advantages of the insurance system in order to increase the number of insured and reduce insurance premiums for farmers. Conclusion: Enactment of agro-insurance will increase the interest and confidence of financial institutions in the farming sector, financial resources will be accessible to the farmers that will facilitate the stable development of the sector in the country. The size of the agro-insurance market in the country should be increased, and the new territories should be covered. The State must have an obligation to ensure the risk of farmers and subsidize insurance companies. Based on the analysis of the insurance market, the conclusions on agro-insurance issues and the relevant recommendations are proposed.

Keywords: Agro-insurance, agricultural product, Agro-market, farming

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8374 Risks in the Islamic Banking Model and Methods Adopted to Manage Them

Authors: K. P. Fasalu Rahman

Abstract:

The financial services industry of Islam include large number of institutions, such as investment banks and commercial banks, investment companies and mutual insurance companies. All types of these financial institutions should have to deal with many issues and risks in their field of work. Islamic banks should expect to face two types of risks: risks that are similar to those faced by conventional financial intermediaries and risks that are unique to the Islamic Banks due to their compliance with the Shariah. The use of financial services and products that comply with the Shariah principles cause special issues for supervision and risk management. Risks are uncertain future events that could influence the achievement of the bank’s objectives, including strategic, operational, financial and compliance objectives. In Islamic banks, effective risk management deserves special attention. As an operational problem, risk management is the classification and identification of methods, processes, and risks in banks to supervise, monitor and measure them. In comparison to conventional banks, Islamic banks face big difficulties in identifying and managing risks due to bigger complexities emerging from the profit loss sharing (PLS) concept and nature of particular risks of Islamic financing. As the developing of managing risks tool becomes very essential, especially in Islamic banking as most of the products are depending on PLS principle, identifying and measuring each type of risk is highly important and critical in any Islamic finance based systems. This paper highlights the special and general risks surrounding Islamic banking. And it investigates in detail the need for risk management in Islamic banks. In addition to analyzing the effectiveness of risk management strategies adopted by Islamic financial institutions at present, this research is also suggesting strategies for improving risk management process of Islamic banks in future.

Keywords: Islamic banking, management, risk, risk management

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8373 Deep Learning for Renewable Power Forecasting: An Approach Using LSTM Neural Networks

Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: deep learning, long short term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting

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8372 Obioma's 'The Fishermen' and the Redefinition of African Postcolonial Narrative Tragedy

Authors: Ezechi Onyerionwu

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If there is a modern world literary culture that has so tremendously patronized the tragic mode, it has to be that of Africa, and this has been largely true to the extent that the African socio-historical process has been given strong projection by its literature and other art forms. From the three-century-long transatlantic slave trade which brutally translocated millions of Africans to the ‘outermost parts of the earth’, to the vicious partitioning of Africa among European powers and the subsequent imposition of colonial authority on a pulverized people, Africa has really been at the receiving end of the big negatives of global transactions. The African tale has largely been one long tragic narrative. However, the postcolonial African tragic saga has presented an interesting variety of forms and approaches, which have seen to the production of some of the most thought-provoking and acclaimed African novels of the late 20th and early 21st century. Some of the defining characteristics of the African tragic prose has been: the exploration of the many neocolonial implications of the African contemporary existence; the significance of the robust interplay between the essentially foreign, and the originally indigenous elements of the modern African society; and the implosive aftermaths of the individual modern African’s attempt to rationalize his position at the centre of a very complex society. Obioma’s incredible novel, The Fishermen, is in many ways, a classic of the African postcolonial narrative tragedy. The reasons for this bold categorization would occupy the present paper.

Keywords: African narrative tragedy, neocolonialism, postcolonial literature, twenty first century African literature

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8371 Photocrosslinkable Nanocomposite Ink for Printing of Strong, Biodegradable and Bioactive Bone Graft

Authors: Xin Zhao

Abstract:

3D printing is used in creating bone grafts of various architectures by printing materials in a layer-by-layer manner. Traditionally, to make materials printable, heating up or dissolving materials in organic solvents have been used, compromising their capability in loading biomolecules. Photocrosslinkable materials which are initially liquid and printable, and solidified upon light exposure are therefore developed. However, the existing photocrosslinkable materials are either too soft to bear load or non-degradable with potential long-term biocompatibility problems. Here, photocrosslinkable nanocomposite ink is developed composed of poly (lactide-co-propylene glycol-co-lactide) dimethacrylate (PmLnDMA) and hydroxyethyl methacrylate-functionalized hydroxyapatite nanoparticles (nHAMA) mimicking the hairy setae of gecko that can strongly interact with its surroundings to bear high load. Incorporation of nHAMA into PmLnDMA endows the nanocomposite ink with several advantages in (1) improved organic/inorganic interfacial compatibility to increase mechanical strength, (2) readily modulated rheological behaviors, wettability, and biodegradation, (3) enhanced osteoconductivity and osteoinductivity. Moreover, the ink can be rapidly crosslinked upon light exposure, load, and long-term release growth factors, and be printed into 3D bone scaffolds of various shapes and structures according to the patients’ needs. Altogether, this innovation will benefit patients all over the world who suffer from bone fractures, tumors, infections.

Keywords: photocrosslinkable nanocomposite, 3D printing, bone ink, personalized medicine

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8370 Indonesian Food Safety Policy for Local Commodity against ASEAN Economic Community: An Uneven Battle in the Global War

Authors: Wahyu Riawanti

Abstract:

Food safety is the one of a prominent issue for globalization era. The more concern is paid in international food and agriculture trade; the more consumers will consider raising the standard of food safety. For this reason, the role of the issue is not only in term of added value but since then also the main requirement in import export activity, including agriculture products. Unfortunately, Indonesia and other developing countries found it difficult to fulfill some of the technical issues and end it up with the lower export activity. In this case, the technical requirements of food safety become an obstacle rather than challenging. Furthermore for local farmers’ activity, food safety is more or less a threat. The study is aimed to reveal on how Indonesian government had dealt with the certification regulation to face problem on competitiveness of Indonesian products. Local government has conducted the regulation of food certification. The study used the case of Salak Pondoh fruit (Salacca zalacca) certification process on Sleman District- Yogyakarta. Triangulation method was used to analyze the effectiveness of the certification program. The quantitative data series taken from 7 farmer groups during the certification processes were used for the research main data. The supporting qualitative data was obtained from in-depth interview with the members of farmers group. The pre-research result has shown that the impact varied from different groups. Conclusively the certification regulation has partly failed to make a significant change in local farmers’ competitiveness. Even the profit was increased, the highly amount budget of the program did not significantly increase the economic incentives for local farmers.

Keywords: economic incentive, food security, government regulation, international trade, local commodity, Salacca zalacca

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8369 Blueprinting of a Normalized Supply Chain Processes: Results in Implementing Normalized Software Systems

Authors: Bassam Istanbouli

Abstract:

With the technology evolving every day and with the increase in global competition, industries are always under the pressure to be the best. They need to provide good quality products at competitive prices, when and how the customer wants them.  In order to achieve this level of service, products and their respective supply chain processes need to be flexible and evolvable; otherwise changes will be extremely expensive, slow and with many combinatorial effects. Those combinatorial effects impact the whole organizational structure, from a management, financial, documentation, logistics and specially the information system Enterprise Requirement Planning (ERP) perspective. By applying the normalized system concept/theory to segments of the supply chain, we believe minimal effects, especially at the time of launching an organization global software project. The purpose of this paper is to point out that if an organization wants to develop a software from scratch or implement an existing ERP software for their business needs and if their business processes are normalized and modular then most probably this will yield to a normalized and modular software system that can be easily modified when the business evolves. Another important goal of this paper is to increase the awareness regarding the design of the business processes in a software implementation project. If the blueprints created are normalized then the software developers and configurators will use those modular blueprints to map them into modular software. This paper only prepares the ground for further studies;  the above concept will be supported by going through the steps of developing, configuring and/or implementing a software system for an organization by using two methods: The Software Development Lifecycle method (SDLC) and the Accelerated SAP implementation method (ASAP). Both methods start with the customer requirements, then blue printing of its business processes and finally mapping those processes into a software system.  Since those requirements and processes are the starting point of the implementation process, then normalizing those processes will end up in a normalizing software.

Keywords: blueprint, ERP, modular, normalized

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8368 The Impact of Implementing European Quality Labeling System on the Supply Chain Performance of Food Industry: An Empirical Study of the Egyptian Traditional Food Sector

Authors: Nourhan A. Saad, Sara Elgazzar, Gehan Saleh

Abstract:

The food industry nowadays is becoming customer-oriented and needs faster response time to deal with food incidents. There is a deep need for good traceability systems to help the supply chain (SC) partners to minimize production and distribution of unsafe or poor quality products, which in turn will enhance the food SC performance. The current food labeling systems implemented in developing countries cannot guarantee that food is authentic, safe and of good quality. Therefore, the use of origin labels, mainly the geographical indications (GIs), allows SC partners to define quality standards and defend their products' reputation. According to our knowledge there are no studies discussed the use of GIs in developing countries. This research represents a research schema about the implementation of European quality labeling system in developing countries and its impact on enhancing SC performance. An empirical study was conducted on the Egyptian traditional food sector based on a sample of seven restaurants implementing the Med-diet labeling system. First, in-depth interviews were carried out to analyze the Egyptian traditional food SC. Then, a framework was developed to link the European quality labeling system and SC performance. Finally, a structured survey was conducted based on the applied framework to investigate the impact of Med-diet labeling system on the SC performance. The research provides an applied framework linking Med-diet quality labeling system to SC performance of traditional food sector in developing countries generally and especially in the Egyptian traditional food sector. The framework can be used as a SC performance management tool to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of food industry's SC performance.

Keywords: food supply chain, med-diet labeling system, quality labeling system, supply chain performance

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8367 Driving Green Public Procurement – A Framework for a Supporting Structure for Public Authorities Based on Good Practices in Europe

Authors: Pia Moschall, Kathrin Sackmann

Abstract:

Considering a purchasing volume of around two trillion Euros per year, which equals about 14% of the European Union’s gross domestic product, European public authorities have significant market power. Making use of this market power by prioritizing the procurement of green products and services offers a great potential to contribute to the Green New Deal. The market demand that is created by Green Public Procurement (GPP) sets incentives for European producers to design and develop Green Products and Eco-Innovations. However, most procurement still does not consider environmental criteria. The goal of the work is to encourage the adaptation of GPP in the European Union. To this end, the drivers for the adaptation were investigated over different case studies. The paper analyzes good-practice cases from European authorities from 2010 to 2020 that were provided by the European Commission. This analysis was guided by Philipp Mayring’s method of qualitative content analysis, whereby the inductively formed categories led to the identification of nine major drivers. The most important ones are ‘use of official guidelines and standards, ‘political support and requirements as well as ‘market research and involvement.’ Further, the paper discusses mutual dependencies between several drivers and how to exploit them. A supporting infrastructure was identified as a crucial factor for the successful adaption of green public procurement. In the next step, the work aims to examine on which administrative level the single drivers can be implemented most effectively. Practical implications of this research are recommendations on how to create a supporting structure on a municipal, federal and national level, including training for the responsible staff, support tools, as well as guidelines and standards for involved stakeholders.

Keywords: content analysis, green public procurement, public authorities, sustainable procurement

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8366 Use of Smartwatches for the Emotional Self-Regulation of Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD)

Authors: Juan C. Torrado, Javier Gomez, Guadalupe Montero, German Montoro, M. Dolores Villalba

Abstract:

One of the most challenging aspects of the executive dysfunction of people with Autism Spectrum Disorders is the behavior control. This is related to a deficit in their ability to regulate, recognize and manage their own emotions. Some researchers have developed applications for tablets and smartphones to practice strategies of relaxation and emotion recognition. However, they cannot be applied to the very moment of temper outbursts, anger episodes or anxiety, since they require to carry the device, start the application and be helped by caretakers. Also, some of these systems are developed for either obsolete technologies (old versions of tablet devices, PDAs, outdated operative systems of smartphones) or specific devices (self-developed or proprietary ones) that create differentiation between the users and the rest of the individuals in their context. For this project we selected smartwatches. Focusing on emergent technologies ensures a wide lifespan of the developed products, because the derived products are intended to be available in the same moment the very technology gets popularized, not later. We also focused our research in commercial versions of smartwatches, since this way differentiation is easily avoided, so the users’ abandonment rate lowers. We have developed a smartwatch system along with a smartphone authoring tool to display self-regulation strategies. These micro-prompting strategies are conformed of pictograms, animations and temporizers, and they are designed by means of the authoring tool: When both devices synchronize their data, the smartwatch holds the self-regulation strategies, which are triggered when the smartwatch sensors detect a remarkable rise of heart rate and movement. The system is being currently tested in an educational center of people with ASD of Madrid, Spain.

Keywords: assistive technologies, emotion regulation, human-computer interaction, smartwatches

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8365 Dynamics of Smallholder Farmer Adoption of High Value Horticultural Crops in Indonesia

Authors: Suprehatin Suprehatin

Abstract:

Improving the participation of smallholder farmers in horticultural value chains to benefit from the rapidly growing demand for high-value agricultural products is one strategy for raising farm income. However, smallholder farmer participation in Indonesian horticultural value chains is under-researched. To address this knowledge gap, this study aims to describe the current status of horticultural crop adoption in Indonesia and analyze the motivations and dynamics of smallholder farmer participation in horticultural value chains: why some small farmers join these new and potentially profitable chains and continue their participation. This study also examines the characteristics of farmers who adopted and those who did not adopt a new horticultural crop with respect to the household (farmer), farm and institutional characteristics. The analysis was conducted using unique data from a 2013 survey of 960 Indonesian farmers on Java Island that produce a variety of agricultural products. Basic statistical analysis showed relatively low adoption rates (10%) of new horticultural crops amongst 960 selected Indonesian farmers with different decisions made in terms of number and timing of new horticultural crop adoption. Adopters were motivated mainly by higher profit, higher yield, and more cash opportunities. The result also showed that current low rates of horticultural crop adoption are associated with a variety of factors, such as lower levels of education among farmers, resource constraints, lack of information on horticultural crop production and low participation in farmer groups. These findings will be helpful for policymakers when designing policies and programs to promote greater participation of Indonesian smallholder farmers in horticultural value chains. In other words, a revitalisation of agricultural policy beyond staple food is important to seize potential benefits from the ongoing agricultural food market transformation.

Keywords: farmer adoption, high value, horticultural crops, Indonesia

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8364 Correlation between Speech Emotion Recognition Deep Learning Models and Noises

Authors: Leah Lee

Abstract:

This paper examines the correlation between deep learning models and emotions with noises to see whether or not noises mask emotions. The deep learning models used are plain convolutional neural networks (CNN), auto-encoder, long short-term memory (LSTM), and Visual Geometry Group-16 (VGG-16). Emotion datasets used are Ryerson Audio-Visual Database of Emotional Speech and Song (RAVDESS), Crowd-sourced Emotional Multimodal Actors Dataset (CREMA-D), Toronto Emotional Speech Set (TESS), and Surrey Audio-Visual Expressed Emotion (SAVEE). To make it four times bigger, audio set files, stretch, and pitch augmentations are utilized. From the augmented datasets, five different features are extracted for inputs of the models. There are eight different emotions to be classified. Noise variations are white noise, dog barking, and cough sounds. The variation in the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is 0, 20, and 40. In summation, per a deep learning model, nine different sets with noise and SNR variations and just augmented audio files without any noises will be used in the experiment. To compare the results of the deep learning models, the accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) are checked.

Keywords: auto-encoder, convolutional neural networks, long short-term memory, speech emotion recognition, visual geometry group-16

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8363 Bridging the Gap through New Media Technology Acceptance: Exploring Chinese Family Business Culture

Authors: Farzana Sharmin, Mohammad Tipu Sultan

Abstract:

Emerging new media technology such as social media and social networking sites have changed the family business dynamics in Eastern Asia. The family business trends in China has been developed at an exponential rate towards technology. In the last two decades, many of this family business has succeeded in becoming major players in the Chinese and world economy. But there are a very few availabilities of literature on Chinese context regarding social media acceptance in terms of the family business. Therefore, this study has tried to cover the gap between culture and new media technology to understand the attitude of Chinese young entrepreneurs’ towards the family business. This paper focused on two cultural dimensions (collectivism, long-term orientation), which are adopted from Greet Hofstede’s. Additionally perceived usefulness and ease of use adopted from the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to explore the actual behavior of technology acceptance for the family business. A quantitative survey method (n=275) used to collect data Chinese family business owners' in Shanghai. The inferential statistical analysis was applied to extract trait factors, and verification of the model, respectively. The research results found that using social media for family business promotion has highly influenced by cultural values (collectivism and long-term orientation). The theoretical contribution of this research may also assist policymakers and practitioners of other developing countries to advertise and promote the family business through social media.

Keywords: China, cultural dimensions, family business, technology acceptance model, TAM

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8362 An Industrial Steady State Sequence Disorder Model for Flow Controlled Multi-Input Single-Output Queues in Manufacturing Systems

Authors: Anthony John Walker, Glen Bright

Abstract:

The challenge faced by manufactures, when producing custom products, is that each product needs exact components. This can cause work-in-process instability due to component matching constraints imposed on assembly cells. Clearing type flow control policies have been used extensively in mediating server access between multiple arrival processes. Although the stability and performance of clearing policies has been well formulated and studied in the literature, the growth in arrival to departure sequence disorder for each arriving job, across a serving resource, is still an area for further analysis. In this paper, a closed form industrial model has been formulated that characterizes arrival-to-departure sequence disorder through stable manufacturing systems under clearing type flow control policy. Specifically addressed are the effects of sequence disorder imposed on a downstream assembly cell in terms of work-in-process instability induced through component matching constraints. Results from a simulated manufacturing system show that steady state average sequence disorder in parallel upstream processing cells can be balanced in order to decrease downstream assembly system instability. Simulation results also show that the closed form model accurately describes the growth and limiting behavior of average sequence disorder between parts arriving and departing from a manufacturing system flow controlled via clearing policy.

Keywords: assembly system constraint, custom products, discrete sequence disorder, flow control

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8361 Immunologically Non-Treated Vascular Xenografts in Long-Term Survival Animals

Authors: W. G. Kim, J. M. Chang, W. S. Kim

Abstract:

Immunologically non-treated and acellularized porcine xenografts were implanted as an arterial graft in goats and comparatively analyzed for the explanted grafts with gross observation, as well as light microscopy and immunohistochemistry, following the predetermined periods. For immunologically non-treated xenografts, bilateral porcine carotid arteries were harvested, and after short-term freezing at -70°C, were implanted into goats. The preparation of acellularized xenograft vessels has been performed with Nacl-SDS solution and stored at the freezer until use. The goats were randomly assigned for three periods of observation (3, 6, and 12 months after implantation), four animals were observed at each of these times. Periodic ultrasonographic examinations were performed during observation period. Following the predetermined periods, the explanted grafts were analyzed. Among 12 animals, one goat died prematurely, and a total of 22 grafts were evaluated. Gross observations revealed non-thrombotic patent smooth lumens. Microscopic examinations of the explanted grafts showed satisfactory cellular reconstruction up to the 12-month observation period. The proportions of CD3 positive T lymphocytes among inflammatory cells infiltrations were very low. In conclusion, these findings, as a whole, suggest that porcine vessel xenografts can be clinically acceptably implanted in the goats as a form of small-diameter vascular graft, regardless of the acellularized xenograft or immunologically non-treated xenograft.

Keywords: xenograft, arterial graft, long-term survival animals, immunology

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8360 Predictors of Behavior Modification Prior to Bariatric Surgery

Authors: Rosemarie Basile, Maria Loizos, John Pallarino, Karen Gibbs

Abstract:

Given that complications can be significant following bariatric surgery and with rates of long-term success measured in excess weight loss varying as low as 33% after five years, an understanding of the psychological factors that may mitigate findings and increase success and result in better screening and supports prior to surgery are critical. An internally oriented locus of control (LOC) has been identified as a predictor for success in obesity therapy, but has not been investigated within the context of bariatric surgery. It is hypothesized that making behavioral changes prior to surgery which mirror those that are required post-surgery may ultimately predict long-term success. 122 subjects participated in a clinical interview and completed self-report measures including the Multidimensional Health Locus of Control Scale, Overeating Questionnaire (OQ), and Lifestyle Questionnaire (LQ). Pearson correlations were computed between locus of control orientation and likelihood to make behavior changes prior to surgery. Pearson correlations revealed a positive correlation between locus of control and likelihood to make behavior changes r = 0.23, p < .05. As hypothesized, there was a significant correlation between internal locus of control and likelihood to make behavior changes. Participants with a higher LOC believe that they are able to make decisions about their own health. Future research will focus on whether this positive correlation is a predictor for future bariatric surgery success.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, behavior modification, health locus of control, overeating questionnaire

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8359 Strain Softening of Soil under Cyclic Loading

Authors: Kobid Panthi, Suttisak Soralump, Suriyon Prempramote

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In June 27, 2014 slope movement was observed in upstream side of Khlong Pa Bon Dam, Thailand. The slide did not have any major catastrophic impact on the dam structure but raised a very important question; why did the slide occur after 10 years of operation? Various site investigations (Bore Hole Test, SASW, Echo Sounding, and Geophysical Survey), laboratory analysis and numerical modelling using SIGMA/W and SLOPE/W were conducted to determine the cause of slope movement. It was observed that the dam had undergone the greatest differential drawdown in its operational history in the year 2014 and was termed as the major cause of movement. From the laboratory tests, it was found that the shear strength of clay had decreased with a period of time and was near its residual value. The cyclic movement of water, i.e., reservoir filling and emptying was coined out to be the major cause for the reduction of shear strength. The numerical analysis was carried out using a modified cam clay (MCC) model to determine the strain softening behavior of the clay. The strain accumulation was observed in the slope with each reservoir cycle triggering the slope failure in 2014. It can be inferred that if there was no major drawdown in 2014, the slope would not have failed but eventually would have failed after a long period of time. If there was no major drawdown in 2014, the slope would not have failed. However, even if there hadn’t been a drawdown, it would have failed eventually in the long run.

Keywords: slope movement, strain softening, residual strength, modified cam clay

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8358 Modeling of CREB Pathway Induced Gene Induction: From Stimulation to Repression

Authors: K. Julia Rose Mary, Victor Arokia Doss

Abstract:

Electrical and chemical stimulations up-regulate phosphorylaion of CREB, a transcriptional factor that induces its target gene production for memory consolidation and Late Long-Term Potentiation (L-LTP) in CA1 region of the hippocampus. L-LTP requires complex interactions among second-messenger signaling cascade molecules such as cAMP, CAMKII, CAMKIV, MAPK, RSK, PKA, all of which converge to phosphorylate CREB which along with CBP induces the transcription of target genes involved in memory consolidation. A differential equation based model for L-LTP representing stimulus-mediated activation of downstream mediators which confirms the steep, supralinear stimulus-response effects of activation and inhibition was used. The same was extended to accommodate the inhibitory effect of the Inducible cAMP Early Repressor (ICER). ICER is the natural inducible CREB antagonist represses CRE-Mediated gene transcription involved in long-term plasticity for learning and memory. After verifying the sensitivity and robustness of the model, we had simulated it with various empirical levels of repressor concentration to analyse their effect on the gene induction. The model appears to predict the regulatory dynamics of repression on the L-LTP and agrees with the experimental values. The flux data obtained in the simulations demonstrate various aspects of equilibrium between the gene induction and repression.

Keywords: CREB, L-LTP, mathematical modeling, simulation

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8357 Effect of Climate Variability on Honeybee's Production in Ondo State, Nigeria

Authors: Justin Orimisan Ijigbade

Abstract:

The study was conducted to assess the effect of climate variability on honeybee’s production in Ondo State, Nigeria. Multistage sampling technique was employed to collect the data from 60 beekeepers across six Local Government Areas in Ondo State. Data collected were subjected to descriptive statistics and multiple regression model analyses. The results showed that 93.33% of the respondents were male with 80% above 40 years of age. Majority of the respondents (96.67%) had formal education and 90% produced honey for commercial purpose. The result revealed that 90% of the respondents admitted that low temperature as a result of long hours/period of rainfall affected the foraging efficiency of the worker bees, 73.33% claimed that long period of low humidity resulted in low level of nectar flow, while 70% submitted that high temperature resulted in improper composition of workers, dunes and queen in the hive colony. The result of multiple regression showed that beekeepers’ experience, educational level, access to climate information, temperature and rainfall were the main factors affecting honey bees production in the study area. Therefore, beekeepers should be given more education on climate variability and its adaptive strategies towards ensuring better honeybees production in the study area.

Keywords: climate variability, honeybees production, humidity, rainfall and temperature

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8356 Harvesting Value-added Products Through Anodic Electrocatalytic Upgrading Intermediate Compounds Utilizing Biomass to Accelerating Hydrogen Evolution

Authors: Mehran Nozari-Asbemarz, Italo Pisano, Simin Arshi, Edmond Magner, James J. Leahy

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Integrating electrolytic synthesis with renewable energy makes it feasible to address urgent environmental and energy challenges. Conventional water electrolyzers concurrently produce H₂ and O₂, demanding additional procedures in gas separation to prevent contamination of H₂ with O₂. Moreover, the oxygen evolution reaction (OER), which is sluggish and has a low overall energy conversion efficiency, does not deliver a significant value product on the electrode surface. Compared to conventional water electrolysis, integrating electrolytic hydrogen generation from water with thermodynamically more advantageous aqueous organic oxidation processes can increase energy conversion efficiency and create value-added compounds instead of oxygen at the anode. One strategy is to use renewable and sustainable carbon sources from biomass, which has a large annual production capacity and presents a significant opportunity to supplement carbon sourced from fossil fuels. Numerous catalytic techniques have been researched in order to utilize biomass economically. Because of its safe operating conditions, excellent energy efficiency, and reasonable control over production rate and selectivity using electrochemical parameters, electrocatalytic upgrading stands out as an appealing choice among the numerous biomass refinery technologies. Therefore, we propose a broad framework for coupling H2 generation from water splitting with oxidative biomass upgrading processes. Four representative biomass targets were considered for oxidative upgrading that used a hierarchically porous CoFe-MOF/LDH @ Graphite Paper bifunctional electrocatalyst, including glucose, ethanol, benzyl, furfural, and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF). The potential required to support 50 mA cm-2 is considerably lower than (~ 380 mV) the potential for OER. All four compounds can be oxidized to yield liquid byproducts with economic benefit. The electrocatalytic oxidation of glucose to the value-added products, gluconic acid, glucuronic acid, and glucaric acid, was examined in detail. The cell potential for combined H₂ production and glucose oxidation was substantially lower than for water splitting (1.44 V(RHE) vs. 1.82 V(RHE) for 50 mA cm-2). In contrast, the oxidation byproduct at the anode was significantly more valuable than O₂, taking advantage of the more favorable glucose oxidation in comparison to the OER. Overall, such a combination of HER and oxidative biomass valorization using electrocatalysts prevents the production of potentially explosive H₂/O₂mixtures and produces high-value products at both electrodes with lower voltage input, thereby increasing the efficiency and activity of electrocatalytic conversion.

Keywords: biomass, electrocatalytic, glucose oxidation, hydrogen evolution

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8355 The Impact of Economic Growth on Carbon Footprints of High-Income and Non-High-Income Countries: A Comparative Analysis

Authors: Ghunchq Khan

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The increase in greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions is a main environmental problem. Diverse human activities and inappropriate economic growth have stimulated a trade-off between economic growth and environmental deterioration all over the world. The impact of economic growth on the environment has received attention as global warming and environmental problems have become more serious. The focus of this study is on carbon footprints (production and consumption) and analyses the impact of GDP per capita on carbon footprints. A balanced panel of 99 countries from 2000 to 2016 is estimated by employing autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model – mean group (MG) and pooled mean group (PMG) estimators. The empirical results indicate that GDP per capita has a significant and positive impact in the short run but a negative effect in the long run on the carbon footprint of production in high-income countries by controlling trade openness, industry share, biological capacity, and population density. At the same time, GDP per capita has a significant and positive impact in both the short and long run on the carbon footprint of the production of non-high-income countries. The results also indicate that GDP per capita negatively impacts the carbon footprint of consumption for high-income countries; on the other hand, the carbon footprint of consumption increases as GDP per capita grows in non-high-income countries.

Keywords: ARDL, carbon footprint, economic growth, industry share, trade openness

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8354 Impact of Emergency Medicine Department Crowding on Mortality

Authors: Morteza Gharibi, Abdolghader Pakniat, Somayeh Bahrampouri

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Introduction: Emergency department (E.R.) crowding is a serious widespread problem in hospitals that leads to irregularities, a slower rate of delivery of services to patients, and a long-term stay. In addition, the long-term stay in the E.D. reduces the possibility of providing services with appropriate quality to other patients who are undergoing medical emergencies, which leads to dissatisfaction among patients. This study aimed to determine the relationship between ED-crowding and the mortality rate of the patients referred to the E.D. In a retrospective cohort study, all patients who expired in first 24 hours of admission were enrolled in the study. Crowding index at the moment of admission was calculated using Edwin Score. The data including history and physical examination, time of arrival in the E.D., diagnosis (using ICD 10 code), time of death, cause of death, demographic information was recoded based on triage forms on admission and patients’ medical files. Data analysis was performed by using descriptive statistics and chi square test, ANOVA tests using SPSS ver. 19. The time of arrival in E.D. to death in crowded E.D. conditions, with an average of five hours and 25 minutes, was significantly higher than the average admission Time of arrival in E.D. to death in active and crowded E.D. conditions. More physicians and nurses can be employed during crowded times to reduce staff fatigue and improve their performance during these hours.

Keywords: mortality, emergency, department, crowding

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8353 Photochemical Behaviour of Carbamazepine in Natural Waters

Authors: Fanny Desbiolles, Laure Malleret, Isabelle Laffont-Schwob, Christophe Tiliacos, Anne Piram, Mohamed Sarakha, Pascal Wong-Wah-Chung

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Pharmaceuticals in the environment have become a very hot topic in the recent years. This interest is related to the large amounts dispensed and to their release in urine or faeces from treated patients, resulting in their ubiquitous presence in water resources and wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) effluents. Thereby, many studies focused on the prediction of pharmaceuticals’ behaviour, to assess their fate and impacts in the environment. Carbamazepine is a widely consumed psychotropic pharmaceutical, thus being one of the most commonly detected drugs in the environment. This organic pollutant was proved to be persistent, especially with respect to its non-biodegradability, rendering it recalcitrant to usual biological treatment processes. Consequently, carbamazepine is very little removed in WWTP with a maximum abatement rate of 5 % and is then often released in natural surface waters. To better assess the environmental fate of carbamazepine in aqueous media, its photochemical transformation was undertaken in four natural waters (two French rivers, the Berre salt lagoon, Mediterranean Sea water) representative of coastal and inland water types. Kinetic experiments were performed in the presence of light using simulated solar irradiation (Xe lamp 300W). Formation of short-lifetime species was highlighted using chemical trap and laser flash photolysis (nanosecond). Identification of transformation by-products was assessed by LC-QToF-MS analyses. Carbamazepine degradation was observed after a four-day exposure and an abatement of 20% maximum was measured yielding to the formation of many by-products. Moreover, the formation of hydroxyl radicals (•OH) was evidenced in waters using terephthalic acid as a probe, considering the photochemical instability of its specific hydroxylated derivative. Correlations were implemented using carbamazepine degradation rate, estimated hydroxyl radical formation and chemical contents of waters. In addition, laser flash photolysis studies confirmed •OH formation and allowed to evidence other reactive species, such as chloride (Cl2•-)/bromine (Br2•-) and carbonate (CO3•-) radicals in natural waters. Radicals mainly originate from dissolved phase and their occurrence and abundance depend on the type of water. Rate constants between reactive species and carbamazepine were determined by laser flash photolysis and competitive reactions experiments. Moreover, LC-QToF-MS analyses of by-products help us to propose mechanistic pathways. The results will bring insights to the fate of carbamazepine in various water types and could help to evaluate more precisely potential ecotoxicological effects.

Keywords: carbamazepine, kinetic and mechanistic approaches, natural waters, photodegradation

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8352 Listeria and Spoilage Inhibition Using Neutralized and Sodium Free Vinegar Powder

Authors: E. Heintz, H. J. van Lent, K. Glass, J. Lim

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The trend for sodium reduction in food products is clear. Following the World Health Organization (WHO) publication on sodium usage and intake, several countries have introduced initiatives to reduce food-related sodium intake. As salt is a common food preservative, this trend motivates the formulation of a suitable additive with comparable benefits of shelf life extension and microbial safety. Organic acid derivatives like acetates are known as generic microbial growth inhibitors and are commonly applied as additives to meet food safety demands. However, modern consumers have negative perceptions towards -synthetic-derived additives and increasingly prefer natural alternatives. Vinegar, for example, is a well-known natural fermentation product used in food preservation. However, the high acidity of vinegar often makes it impractical for direct use in meat products and a neutralized form would be desirable. This research demonstrates the efficacy of powdered vinegar (Provian DV) in inhibiting Listeria and spoilage organisms (LAB) to increase safety and shelf life of meat products. For this, the efficacy of Provian DV was compared to the efficacy of Provian K, a commonly used sodium free acetate-based preservative, which is known for its inhibition against Listeria. Materials & methods— Cured pork hams: Ingredients: Pork ham muscle, water, salt, dextrose, sodium tripolyphosphate, carrageenan, sodium nitrite, sodium erythorbate, and starch. Targets: 73-74% moisture, 1.75+0.1% salt, and pH 6.4+0.1. Treatments: Control (no antimicrobials), Provian®K 0.5% and 0.75%, Provian®DV 0.5%, 0.65%, 0.8% and 1.0%. Meat formulations in casings were cooked reaching an internal temperature of 73.9oC, cooled overnight and stored for 4 days at 4oC until inoculation. Inoculation: Sliced products were inoculated with approximately 3-log per gram of a cocktail of L. monocytogenes (including serotypes 4b, 1/2a and 1/2b) or LAB-cocktail (C. divergens and L. mesenteroides). Inoculated slices were vacuum packaged and stored at 4oC and 7°C. Samples were incubated 28 days (LAB) or 12 weeks (L. monocytogenes) Microbial analysis: Microbial populations were enumerated in rinsate obtained after adding 100ml of sterile Butterfield’s phosphate buffer to each package and massaging the contents externally by hand. L. monocytogenes populations were determined on triplicate samples by surface plating on Modified Oxford agar whereas LAB plate counts were determined on triplicate samples by surface plating on All Purpose Tween agar with 0.4% bromocresol purple. Proximate analysis: Triplicate non-inoculated ground samples were analyzed for the moisture content, pH, aw, salt, and residual nitrite. Results—The results confirmed the no growth of Listeria on cured ham with 0.5% Provian K stored at 4°C and 7°C for 12 weeks, whereas the no-antimicrobial control showed a 1-log increase within two weeks. 0.5% Provian DV demonstrated similar efficacy towards Listeria inhibition at 4°C while 0.65% Provian DV was required to match the Listeria control at 7°C. 0.75% Provian K and 1% Provian DV were needed to show inhibition of the LAB for 4 weeks at both temperatures. Conclusions—This research demonstrated that it is possible to increase safety and shelf life of cured ready-to-eat ham using preservatives that meet current food trends, like sodium reduction and natural origin.

Keywords: food safety, natural preservation, listeria control, shelf life extension

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8351 Low Energy Technology for Leachate Valorisation

Authors: Jesús M. Martín, Francisco Corona, Dolores Hidalgo

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Landfills present long-term threats to soil, air, groundwater and surface water due to the formation of greenhouse gases (methane gas and carbon dioxide) and leachate from decomposing garbage. The composition of leachate differs from site to site and also within the landfill. The leachates alter with time (from weeks to years) since the landfilled waste is biologically highly active and their composition varies. Mainly, the composition of the leachate depends on factors such as characteristics of the waste, the moisture content, climatic conditions, degree of compaction and the age of the landfill. Therefore, the leachate composition cannot be generalized and the traditional treatment models should be adapted in each case. Although leachate composition is highly variable, what different leachates have in common is hazardous constituents and their potential eco-toxicological effects on human health and on terrestrial ecosystems. Since leachate has distinct compositions, each landfill or dumping site would represent a different type of risk on its environment. Nevertheless, leachates consist always of high organic concentration, conductivity, heavy metals and ammonia nitrogen. Leachate could affect the current and future quality of water bodies due to uncontrolled infiltrations. Therefore, control and treatment of leachate is one of the biggest issues in urban solid waste treatment plants and landfills design and management. This work presents a treatment model that will be carried out "in-situ" using a cost-effective novel technology that combines solar evaporation/condensation plus forward osmosis. The plant is powered by renewable energies (solar energy, biomass and residual heat), which will minimize the carbon footprint of the process. The final effluent quality is very high, allowing reuse (preferred) or discharge into watercourses. In the particular case of this work, the final effluents will be reused for cleaning and gardening purposes. A minority semi-solid residual stream is also generated in the process. Due to its special composition (rich in metals and inorganic elements), this stream will be valorized in ceramic industries to improve the final products characteristics.

Keywords: forward osmosis, landfills, leachate valorization, solar evaporation

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8350 Russian pipeline natural gas export strategy under uncertainty

Authors: Koryukaeva Ksenia, Jinfeng Sun

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Europe has been a traditional importer of Russian natural gas for more than 50 years. In 2021, Russian state-owned company Gazprom supplied about a third of all gas consumed in Europe. The Russia-Europe mutual dependence in terms of natural gas supplies has been causing many concerns about the energy security of the two sides for a long period of time. These days the issue has become more urgent than ever considering recent Russian invasion in Ukraine followed by increased large-scale geopolitical conflicts, making the future of Russian natural gas supplies and global gas markets as well highly uncertain. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to get insight into the possible futures of Russian pipeline natural gas exports by a scenario planning method based on Monte-Carlo simulation within LUSS model framework, and propose Russian pipeline natural gas export strategies based on the obtained scenario planning results. The scenario analysis revealed that recent geopolitical disputes disturbed the traditional, longstanding model of Russian pipeline gas exports, and, as a result, the prospects and the pathways for Russian pipeline gas on the world markets will differ significantly from those before 2022. Specifically, our main findings show, that (i) the events of 2022 generated many uncertainties for the long-term future of Russian pipeline gas export perspectives on both western and eastern supply directions, including geopolitical, regulatory, economic, infrastructure and other uncertainties; (ii) according to scenario modelling results, Russian pipeline exports will face many challenges in the future, both on western and eastern directions. A decrease in pipeline gas exports will inevitably affect country’s natural gas production and significantly reduce fossil fuel export revenues, jeopardizing the energy security of the country; (iii) according to proposed strategies, in order to ensure the long-term stable export supplies in the changing environment, Russia may need to adjust its traditional export strategy by performing export flows and product diversification, entering new markets, adapting its contracting mechanism, increasing competitiveness and gaining a reputation of a reliable gas supplier.

Keywords: Russian natural gas, Pipeline natural gas, Uncertainty, Scenario simulation, Export strategy

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8349 Analysis of Turkish Government Cultural Portal for Supporting Gastronomy Tourism

Authors: Hilmi Rafet Yüncü

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Today Internet has very important role to promote products and services all over the world. Companies and destinations in tourism industry use Internet to sell and to promote their core products to directly potential tourists. Internet technologies have redefined the relationships between tourists, tourism companies, and travel agents. The new relationship allows for accessing and tapping tourism information and services. Internet technologies ensure new opportunities to available for the tourism industry, including travel accommodation, and tourist destination organizations. Websites are important devices to the marketing of a destination. Most people make a research about the destination before arriving via internet. Governments have a considerable role in the process of marketing tourism destinations. Governments make policies and regulations; furthermore, they help to market destinations to potential tourists. Governments have a comprehensive overview of the sector to see changes in tourism market and design better policies, programs and marketing plans. At the same time, governments support developing of alternative tourism in the country with regulations and marketing tools. The aim of this study is to analyse of an Internet website of governmental tourism portal in Turkey to determine effectiveness about gastronomy tourism. The Turkish government has established a culture portal for foreign and local tourists. The Portal provides local and general information about tourism attractions of cities and Turkey. There are 81 official cities in Turkey and all these cities are conducted to analyse to determine how effective marketing is done by Turkish Government in the manner of gastronomy tourism. A content analysis will be conducted to Internet website of the portal with food content, recipes and gastronomic feature of cities.

Keywords: culture portal, gastronomy tourism, government, Turkey

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8348 Using Fly Ash Based Synthetic Zeolite Permeable Reactive Barrier to Remove Arsenic, Cadmium, and their Mixture from Aqueous Solution

Authors: Mozhgan Bahadory, Gholam-Hossein Rostami

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Over the next quarter of a century, the US government and the private sector will spend billions of dollars annually to clean the contaminated sites from pollution such as petroleum products, heavy metals, and solvents organic compounds. During the past three decades, almost 750,000 sites that require remediation have been reported to the United States federal and state agencies. Out of these contamination sites, approximately 300,000 are still in need of remediation. In these sites, the most widespread forms of contamination are petroleum products and heavy metals. At least half of US Department of Defense, US Department of Energy, Superfund sites, and Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) sites have been reported to contain heavy metals. Heavy metals most often found in the contaminated water are lead, mercury, chromium, cadmium, arsenic, and zinc. This investigation emphasizes the elimination of arsenic and cadmium from aqueous solution. During the past several years, we developed a novel material called Alkali-Activated fly ash Material Permeable Reactive Barrier (AAM-PRB), which includes fly ash, fine aggregates, coarse aggregates, activating chemicals, and water. AAM can be produced with high permeability, 10-1 cm/s, then crushed into pelletized form. Laboratory experiments showed that water containing 10 ppm, 100 ppm, and 1000 ppm of arsenic and cadmium ion passing through AAM-PRB reduced to less than 0.1 ppm. However, water containing 10,000 ppm arsenic ion passing through AAM- PRB shows that the breakthrough was achieved. The removal of the mixture of arsenic and cadmium from aqueous solutions was also tested by using AAM-PRB. The results indicate that the efficiency of AAM-PRB for simultaneous removal of arsenic and cadmium from 10 ppm, 100 ppm, and 1,000 ppm were marginally below that of arsenic alone. Still, it was significantly lower for cadmium from the aqueous solution. The basic science behind removing heavy metal and microstructural investigation AAM-PRB will be the focus of our future work.

Keywords: arsenic, cadmium, contaminated water, fly ash, permeability, reactive barrier

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8347 An Econometric Analysis of the Impacts of Inflation on the Economic Growth of South Africa

Authors: Gisele Mah, Paul Saah

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The rising rates of inflation are hindering economic growth in developing nations. Hence, this study investigated the effects of inflation rates on the economic growth of South Africa using the secondary time series data from 1987 to 2022. The main objectives of this study were to investigate the long run relationship between inflation and economic growth, and also to determine the causality direction between these two variables. The study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test of co-integration to investigate whether there is a long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth. The Pairwise Granger causality approach was employed to determine the second objective, which is the direction of causality. The study discovered only one co-integration relationship between our variables and it was between inflation and economic growth. The results showed that there is a negative and significant relationship between inflation and economic growth. There appeared to be a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and exchange rate. The interest rates have shown to be negative and insignificant in explaining economic growth. The study also established that inflation does Granger cause economic growth which is given as GDP. Similarly, the study discovered that inflation Granger causes exchange rates. Therefore, the study recommends that inflation should be decreased in South Africa, in order for economic growth to increase. Contrary, this study recommends that South Africa should increase its exchange rates, in order for economic growth to also increase.

Keywords: inflation rate, economic growth, South Africa, autoregressive distributed lag model

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