Search results for: dominant period

Authors: Rahaf Alasiri, Tarek Alghamdi, Abdullah Zarkan

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Background: Due to measures such as school closure, social distancing, and virtual teaching during the pandemic, primary school children's psychological well-being is greatly affected. These measures have short and long-term consequences on the children's well-being and mental health. Identifying these consequences is important. Aim: This study aimed to evaluate mood and behavior changes in children who attended school virtually. Subjects and methods: This is a cross-sectional study conducted among children and their parents who visited the outpatient clinic. A self-administered questionnaire was given to the parents of children aged between 6 to 14 years. The questionnaire includes socio-demographic characteristics, Conor's modifies scale to assess the attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) of children, and the parental stress scale (PSS) to assess the stress symptoms of the parents. Results: Of the 66 surveyed children, 60.6% were aged between 10 to 14 years old, with the female being dominant (77.3%). The most common medical condition was asthma (7.6%), and nearly two-thirds (63.6%) indicated good health conditions during the pandemic. There was a significant inverse correlation observed between ADHD score and PSS score (r=-0.387). No significant differences are in ADHD and PSS scores in relation to the socio-demographic characteristics of the children, including age, gender, and having an associated medical condition (p>0.05). Conclusion: During the pandemic, children who attended virtual classes did not seem to affect even with restrictions. Most children indicated good health conditions during the pandemic. However, it is surprising to know that in spite of children’s high spirits during the pandemic, their parents were seen to have an increased level of stress. Strategies to address parents’ psychological disorders during the pandemic are warranted.

Keywords: children's mood, COVID-19, ADHD, parental stress

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Authors: M. Douak, Z. Aouachria

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The aim of our study is to project an optimized wind turbine of Darrieus type. This type of wind turbine is characterized by a low starting torque in comparison with the Savonius rotor allowing them to operate for a period greater than wind speed. This led us to reconsider the Darrieus rotor to optimize a design which will increase its starting torque. The study of a system of monitoring and control of the angle of attack of blade profile, which allows an auto start to wind speeds as low as possible is presented for the straight blade of Darrieus turbine. The study continues to extend to other configurations namely those of parabolic type.

Keywords: Darrieus turbine, pitch angle, self stating, wind energy

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Authors: Janell Jayamohan

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A pilot project based on the Theory of Planned Behavior was completed at a single sex female international high school in order to improve the quality of comprehensive sex education in a 12th grade classroom. The student sample is representative of a growing phenomenon of “Third Culture Kids” or global nomads; often in today’s world, culture transcends any one dominant influence and blends values from multiple sources. The Objective was to improve intentions of condom use during the students’ first or next intercourse. A peer-education session which focused on condom attitudes, social norms, and self-efficacy - central tenets of the Theory of Planned Behavior - was added to an existing curriculum in order to achieve this objective. Peer educators were given liberty of creating and executing the lesson to their homeroom, a sample of 23 senior students, with minimal intervention from faculty, the desired outcome being that the students themselves would be the best judge of what is culturally relevant and important to their peers. The school nurse and school counselor acted as faculty facilitators but did not assist in the creation or delivery of the lesson, only checked for medical accuracy. The participating sample of students completed a pre and post-test with validated questions assessing changes in attitudes and overall satisfaction with the peer education lesson. As this intervention was completed during the Covid-19 pandemic, the peer education session was completed in a virtual classroom environment, limiting the modes of information delivery available to the peer educators, but is planned to be replicated in an in-person environment in subsequent cycles.

Keywords: adolescents, condoms, peer education, sex education, theory of planned behavior, third culture kids

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Authors: Olumayowa M. Olowe, Michael D. Asemoloye Odunayo J. Olawuyi, Hilda Vasanthakaalam

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Poor management of maize ear rot caused by fungal infection in Nigeria affected the quantity and quality of maize. This study, therefore, aims at characterizing and controlling Fusarium strains using arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. Maize ear showing rot symptoms were obtained from some selected farms located at Ilesa East and West using random sampling technique. Isolation of Fusarium pathogen from infected maize grain was done using direct pour plate method on potato dextrose agar (PDA) and was characterized based on morphological and molecular ITS-amplification methods. The reaction of PVASYN8F2, T2LCOMP1STR SYN-W-1, and T2LCOMP4 maize varieties, to the Fusarium ear rot pathogens and biocontrol efficacy of the mycorrhizal fungi were assessed on growth, yield, agronomic parameters and symptoms observed. The strains; olowILH1 and olowILH2 identified as Fusarium napiforme were the most dominant and virulent pathogens associated with the maize. They showed genetic similarity with documented ear rot pathogens on NCBI with accession numbers Fusarium proliferatum KT224027, KT224023, and Fusarium sp AY237110. They both exhibited varying inhibitory effects on the three maize varieties compare to control (uninfected plant) which had better growth characteristics. It was also observed that strain olowILH1 was more virulent than olowILH2. T2LCOMP4 was generally more susceptible to both fungal strains compared to the other two maize (T2LCOMP1STR SYN-W-1 and T2LCOMP4 ). In all, strain olowILH1 was more virulent than olowILH2, and Glomus clarum had higher inhibitory pathogenic effect against Fusarium strains compared to G. deserticola.

Keywords: arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, disease management, Fusarium strains, identification

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Authors: Siyang Wang, Yujin Hu, Xuelin Wang, Wenqian Zhang

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Austenitic stainless steels are widely used in nuclear industry to manufacture critical components owing to their excellent corrosion resistance at high temperatures. Almost all the components used in nuclear power plants are produced by surface finishing (surface cold work) such as milling, grinding and so on. The change of surface states induced by machining has great influence on the corrosion behavior. In the present study, long time oxidation behavior of machined 316 austenitic stainless steel exposed to simulated pressure water reactor environment was investigated considering different surface states. Four surface finishes were produced by electro-polishing (P), grinding (G), and two milling (M and M1) processes respectively. Before oxidation, the surface Vickers micro-hardness, surface roughness of each type of sample was measured. Corrosion behavior of four types of sample was studied by using oxidation weight gain method for six oxidation periods. The oxidation time of each period was 120h, 216h, 336h, 504h, 672h and 1344h, respectively. SEM was used to observe the surface morphology of oxide film in several period. The results showed that oxide film on austenitic stainless steel has a duplex-layer structure. The inner oxide film is continuous and compact, while the outer layer is composed of oxide particles. The oxide particle consisted of large particles (nearly micron size) and small particles (dozens of nanometers to a few hundred nanometers). The formation of oxide particle could be significantly affected by the machined surface states. The large particle on cold worked samples (grinding and milling) appeared earlier than electro-polished one, and the milled sample has the largest particle size followed by ground one and electro-polished one. For machined samples, the large particles were almost distributed along the direction of machining marks. Severe exfoliation was observed on one milled surface (M) which had the most heavily cold worked layer, while rare local exfoliation occurred on the ground sample (G) and the other milled sample (M1). The electro-polished sample (P) entirely did not exfoliate.

Keywords: austenitic stainless steel, oxidation, machining, SEM

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Authors: Ali M. Elgerbi, Obied A. Alwan, Al-Taher O. Alzwei, Abdurrahim A. Elouzi

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The binding of AFM1 to bacteria in phosphate buffer solution depended on many factors such as: availability of energy, incubation period, species and strain of bacteria. Increase in concentration of sugar showed higher removal of AFM1 and faster than in phosphate buffer alone. With 1.0% glucose lactic acid bacteria and bifidobacteria showed toxin removal ranging from 7.7 to 39.7% whereas with 10.0% glucose the percentage removal was 21.8 to 45.4% at 96 hours of incubation.

Keywords: aflatoxin M1, lactic acid bacteria, bifidobacteria , binding, phosphate buffer

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Authors: Gayathri.G, Hemamalini.A.J, Chandrasekaran.A

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Problem statement: Nutritional deficiency, especially calcium, may lead to poor bone formation and mineralization. Although there are plenty of synthetic supplements available, it is essential to make a calcium rich food supplement accessible to combat calcium deficiency that could be readily prepared at the household level. Thus the current study aimed to formulate and standardize an indigenous low-cost calcium-rich food supplement and to study the impact of supplementation on the bone resorption and formation markers. Methods: A Randomized controlled trial was conducted with 60 subjects distributed equally in control and experimental groups, including perimenopausal and postmenopausal women. A plant-based calcium-rich product was developed and supplemented in form of balls as a midmorning and evening snack by addition of optimized proportions of leaves of Sesbania Grandiflora, seeds of Sesamum indicum, Eleusine coracana, Glycine max, Vigna mungo for a period of 6 months. Postmenopausal and perimenopausal women received 1200mg and 800mg of calcium per day from the supplemented, respectively. Outcome measures like serum calcium; betacrosslaps (bone resorption marker) and total P1NP (bone absorption marker) were assessed after 3 months and after 6 months. Results: There were no significant changes seen in the serum calcium and total P1NP levels (bone formation marker) among the subjects during the supplementation period. The bone resorption marker (betacrosslaps) reduced in all the groups and the reduction (0.32 ± 0.130 ng/ml to 0.25 ± 0.130 ng/ml) was found to be statistically highly significant (p < 0.01) in experimental group of perimenopausal subjects and significant (p < 0.05) in experimental group of postmenopausal subjects (1.11 ± 0.290 ng/ml to 0.42 ± 0.263 ng/ml). Conclusion: With the current severe calcium deficiency in the Indian population, integrating low-cost, calcium-rich native foods that could be readily prepared at household level would be useful in raising the nutritional consumption of calcium, which would, in turn, decrease bone turnover.

Keywords: calcium, sesbania grandiflora, sesamum indicum, eleusine coracana, glycine max, vigna mungo, postmenopause, perimenopause, bone resorption, bone absorption, betacrosslaps, total P1NP

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Authors: Zeynep Nagihan Millet, Yun- Ping Ge

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Teaching English as a foreign language (EFL) to Taiwanese kindergarten students presents challenges due to their young age and cognitive development primarily occurring in their first language (Mandarin). This limits consistent exposure to English. Integrating content-based teaching with language instruction offers an effective approach to address these challenges. This study investigates the impact of peer interactions on English language learning among kindergarten students in Taiwan. This study examines the impact of peer interactions on vocabulary acquisition and basic language skills development through content-based teaching in bilingual classrooms. Grounded in the Theory of Social Development and Positioning Theory, the research employs a qualitative observational method, collecting data from classroom observations and peer interactions of 3-5-year-old Taiwanese students over five weeks. The findings reveal that socially dominant children influence their peers, enhancing language development through imitation and internalizing complex language patterns. Integrating Chinese and English content teaching facilitates natural vocabulary acquisition and strengthens peer collaboration, highlighting the significance of peer interactions and social learning in bilingual early childhood education. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of a social learning approach, validating the application of the Theory of Social Development in bilingual kindergarten education. This research provides valuable insights into effective strategies for bilingual early childhood education.

Keywords: kindergarten, peer relationship, positioning, social interaction

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Authors: P. Fucik, J. Vymazal, M. Seres

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Pollution from agricultural drainage is a severe issue for water quality, and it is a major reason for the failure in accomplishment of 'good chemical status' according to Water Framework Directive, especially due to high nitrogen and pesticide burden of receiving waters. Constructed wetlands were proposed as a suitable measure for removal of nitrogen from agricultural drainage in the early 1990s. Until now, the vast majority of constructed wetlands designed to treat tile drainage were free-surface constructed wetlands. In 2018, three small experimental constructed wetlands with horizontal subsurface flow were built in Czech Highlands to treat tile drainage from 15.73 ha watershed. The wetlands have a surface area of 79, 90 and 98 m² and were planted with Phalaris arundinacea and Glyceria maxima in parallel bands. The substrate in the first two wetlands is gravel (4-8 mm) mixed with birch woodchips (10:1 volume ratio). In one of those wetlands, the water level is kept 10 cm above the surface; in the second one, the water is kept below the surface. The third wetland has 20 cm layer of birch woodchips on top of gravel. The drainage outlet, as well as wetland outlets, are equipped with automatic discharge-gauging devices, temperature probes, as well as automatic water samplers (Teledyne ISCO). During the monitored period (2018-2019), the flows were unexpectedly low due to a drop of the shallow ground water level, being the main source of water for the monitored drainage system, as experienced at many areas of the Czech Republic. The mean water residence time was analyzed in the wetlands (KBr), which was 16, 9 and 27 days, respectively. The mean total nitrogen concentration eliminations during one-year period were 61.2%, 62.6%, and 70.9% for wetlands 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The average load removals amounted to 0.516, 0.323, and 0.399 g N m-2 d-1 or 1885, 1180 and 1457 kg ha-1 yr-1 in wetlands 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The plant uptake and nitrogen sequestration in aboveground biomass contributed only marginally to the overall nitrogen removal. Among the three variants, the one with shallow water on the surface was revealed to be the most effective for removal of nitrogen from drainage water. In August 2019, herbicide Metazachlor was experimentally poured in time of 2 hours at drainage outlet in a concentration of 250 ug/l to find out the removal rates of the aforementioned wetlands. Water samples were taken the first day every six hours, and for the next nine days, every day one water sample was taken. The removal rates were as follows 94, 69 and 99%; when the most effective wetland was the one with the longest water residence time and the birch woodchip-layer on top of gravel.

Keywords: constructed wetlands, metazachlor, nitrogen, tile drainage

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Authors: Yuichi Miyamoto

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In regards to the energy sector in the modern period, two points were raised. First is a vast and growing energy demand, and second is an environmental impact associated with it. The enormous consumption of fossil fuel to the mobile unit is leading to its rapid depletion. Nuclear power is not the only problem. A modal shift that utilizes personal transporters and independent power, in order to realize a sustainable society, is very effective. The paper proposes that the world will continue to work on this. Energy of the future society, innovation in battery technology and the use of natural energy is a big key. And it is also necessary in order to save on energy consumption.

Keywords: natural energy, modal shift, personal transportation, battery

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Authors: Reema Alghamdi, Rasees Aleisa, Layan Sukkar

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The primary objective of this research is to conduct an examination of the Flo menstrual cycle application. We do that by evaluating the user experience and their satisfaction with integrated AI features. The study seeks to gather data from primary resources, primarily through surveys, to gather different insights about the application, like its usability functionality in addition to the overall user satisfaction. The focus of our project will be particularly directed towards the impact and user perspectives regarding the integration of artificial intelligence features within the application, contributing to an understanding of the holistic user experience.

Keywords: period, women health, machine learning, AI features, menstrual cycle

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Authors: M. Habibi

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The time-resolved studies of soft and hard X-ray were carried out over a wide range of argon pressures by employing an array of eight filtered photo PIN diodes and a scintillation detector, simultaneously. In 50% of the discharges, the soft X-ray is seen to be emitted in short multiple pulses corresponding to different compression, whereas it is a single pulse for hard X-rays corresponding to only the first strong compression. It should be stated that multiple compressions dominantly occur at low pressures and high pressures are mostly in the single compression regime. In 43% of the discharges, at all pressures except for optimum pressure, the first period is characterized by two or more sharp peaks.The X–ray signal intensity during the second and subsequent compressions is much smaller than the first compression.

Keywords: plasma focus device, SXR, HXR, Pin-diode, argon plasma

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Authors: Bashir Ahmad Amiri, Nsenda Lukumwena

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The developing economies are experiencing an unprecedented rate of urbanization, mainly the urbanization of poverty which is leading to sprawling of slums and informal settlement. Kabul, being the capital and primate city of Afghanistan is grossly encountered to the informal settlement where the majority of the people consider to be informal. Despite all efforts to upgrade and minimize the growth of these settlements, they are growing rapidly. Various interventions have been taken by the government and some international organizations from physical upgrading to urban renewal, but none of them have succeeded to solve the issue of informal settlement. The magnitude of the urbanization and the complexity of informal settlement in Kabul city, and the institutional and capital constraint of the government calls for integration and optimization of currently practiced strategies. This paper provides an overview of informal settlement formation and the conventional upgrading strategies in Kabul city to identify the dominant/successful practices and rationalize the conventional upgrading modes. For this purpose, Hothkhel has been selected as the case study, since it represents the same situation of major informal settlements of the city. Considering the existing potential and features of the Hothkhel and proposed land use by master plan this paper intends to find a suitable upgrading mode for the study area and finally to scale up the model for the city level upgrading. The result highlights that the informal settlements of Kabul city have high (re)development capacity for accepting the additional room without converting the available agricultural area to built-up. The result also indicates that the integrated multi-sector upgrading has the scale-up potential to increase the reach of beneficiaries and to ensure an inclusive and efficient urbanization.

Keywords: informal settlement, upgrading strategies, Kabul city, urban expansion, integrated multi-sector, scale-up

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Authors: Morteza Raei Dehaghi, Mojtaba Molaahmadi, Seyed Mohammad Mirhashemi

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This study aimed to explore the relationship between energy consumption and value-added in Iran’s industry sector during the time period 1973-2011. Annual data related to energy consumption and value added in the industry sector were used. The results of the study revealed a positive relationship between energy consumption and value-added of the industry sector. Similarly, the results showed that there is one-way causality between energy consumption and value-added in the industry sector.

Keywords: economic growth, energy consumption, granger causality test, industry sector

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Authors: Dimphna Ezikanyi, Gloria Sakwari

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Airborne pollen and fungal spores are major triggers of allergies, and their abundance and seasonality depend on plant responses to climatic and meteorological variables. A survey of seasonal prevalence of airborne pollen and fungal spores in Nsukka, Enugu, South- East Nigeria and relationship to climatic variables were carried out from Jan-June, 2017. The aim of the study was to access climate change and variability over time in the area and their accrued influence on modern pollen and spores rain. Decadal change in climate was accessed from variables collected from meteorological centre in the study area. Airborne samples were collected monthly using a modified Tauber-like pollen samplers raised 5 ft above ground level. Aerosamples collected were subjected to acetolysis. Dominant pollen recorded were those of Poaceae, Elaeis guinensis Jacq. and Casuarina equisetifolia L. Change in weather brought by onset of rainfall evoked sporulation and dispersal of diverse spores into ambient air especially potent allergenic spores with the spores of Ovularia, Bispora, Curvularia, Nigrospora, Helminthosporium preponderant; these 'hydrophilic fungi' were abundant in the rainy season though in varying quantities. Total fungal spores correlated positively with monthly rainfall and humidity but negatively with temperature. There was a negative though not significant correlation between total pollen count and rainfall. The study revealed a strong influence of climatic variables on abundance and spatial distribution of pollen and fungal spores in the ambient atmosphere.

Keywords: allergy, fungal spores, pollen, weather parameters

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Authors: Evelyn Nwamaka Ogbeide-Osaretin, Bright Orhewere

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This study examined the role of the population in the linkage between energy consumption and economic development in Nigeria. Time series data on energy consumption, population, and economic development were used for the period 1995 to 2020. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag -Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) was engaged. Economic development had a negative substantial impact on energy consumption in the long run. Population growth had a positive significant effect on energy consumption. Government expenditure was also found to impact the level of energy consumption, while energy consumption is not a function of oil price in Nigeria.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, energy consumption, population, economic development, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Yusuke Katayama, Tetsuhisa Kitamura, Kosuke Kiyohara, Sumito Hayashida, Taku Iwami, Takashi Kawamura, Takeshi Shimazu

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Background: Recently, the number of ambulance dispatches has been increasing in Japan and it is, therefore, difficult to accept emergency patients to hospitals smoothly and appropriately because of the limited hospital capacity. To facilitate the request for patient transport by ambulances and hospital acceptance, the emergency information system using information technology has been built up and introduced in various communities. However, its effectiveness has not been insufficiently revealed in Japan. In 2013, we developed a smartphone application system that enables the emergency-medical-service (EMS) personnel to share information about on-scene ambulance and hospital situation. The aim of this study was to assess the introduction effect of this application for EMS system in Osaka City, Japan. Methods: This study was a retrospective study with population-based ambulance records of Osaka Municipal Fire Department. This study period was six years from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2015. In this study, we enrolled emergency patients that on-scene EMS personnel conducted the hospital selection for them. The main endpoint was difficulty in hospital acceptance at the scene. The definition of difficulty in hospital acceptance at the scene was to make >=5 phone calls by EMS personnel at the scene to each hospital until a decision to transport was determined. The definition of the smartphone application group was emergency patients transported in the period of 2013-2015 after the introduction of this application, and we assessed the introduction effect of smartphone application with multivariable logistic regression model. Results: A total of 600,526 emergency patients for whom EMS personnel selected hospitals were eligible for our analysis. There were 300,131 smartphone application group (50.0%) in 2010-2012 and 300,395 non-smartphone application group (50.0%) in 2013-2015. The proportion of the difficulty in hospital acceptance was 14.2% (42,585/300,131) in the smartphone application group and 10.9% (32,819/300,395) in the non-smartphone application group, and the difficulty in hospital acceptance significantly decreased by the introduction of the smartphone application (adjusted odds ration; 0.730, 95% confidence interval; 0.718-0.741, P<0.001). Conclusions: Sharing information between ambulance and hospital by introducing smartphone application at the scene was associated with decreasing the difficulty in hospital acceptance. Our findings may be considerable useful for developing emergency medical information system with using IT in other areas of the world.

Keywords: difficulty in hospital acceptance, emergency medical service, infomation technology, smartphone application

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Authors: Gwani M., Umar M. Kangiwa, Bello A. Umar, Gado A. Abubakar

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The increasing demand for sustainable energy solutions has driven significant interest in the development of innovative designs of wind turbines. The horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) and the vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT) are the dominant type of wind turbine used for power generation. However, these turbines have their respective merits and demerits, which affect their performance. This study introduces a Hybrid Cross Axis Wind Turbine (HCAWT), which integrates the blades of both horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWTs) and vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs) in a cross-axis configuration with a Savonius rotor to form a hybrid system. The HCAWT combines the self-starting capabilities of Savonius rotors with the high-efficiency characteristics of Darrieus rotors and HAWT, aiming to optimize performance across a range of wind conditions. The performance of the HCAWT was tested and evaluated against a cross-axis wind turbine (CAWT) and a conventional VAWT under similar experimental conditions. The study’s results indicate that the HCAWT outperformed both the CAWT and the conventional VAWT. The power coefficient (Cp) of the HCAWT increases by 83% and 132% compared to that of the CAWT and conventional VAWT, respectively. The findings show that the HCAWT offers better start-up performance and maintains higher efficiency at lower wind speeds compared to CAWT and conventional VAWT. The findings suggest that the HCAWT offers significant improvements in energy capture, particularly in turbulent wind conditions, and greater adaptability to changing wind conditions, making it a viable option for both urban and rural energy applications.

Keywords: renewable energy, hybrid, cross axis wind turbine, energy efficiency

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Authors: Pernille K. Christiansen, Mette Maria Skjøth, Line Lorenzen, Eva Draborg, Christina Anne Vinter, Trine Kjær, Mette Juel Rothmann

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Background and aims: Overweight and obesity are an increasing challenge on a global level. In Denmark, more than one-third of all pregnant women are overweight or obese, and many women exceed the gestational weight gain recommendations from the Institute of Medicine. Being overweight or obese, is associated with a higher risk of adverse maternal and fetal outcomes, including gestational diabetes and childhood obesity. Thus, it is important to focus on the women’s lifestyles between their pregnancies to lower the risk of gestational weight retention in the long run. The objective of this study was to explorer what barriers and challenges postpartum women experience with respect to healthy lifestyles during the postpartum period and to access whether an Information Technology based intervention might be a supportive tool to assist and motivate postpartum women to a healthy lifestyle. Materials and methods: The method is inspired by participatory design. A systematic text condensation was applied to semi-structured focus groups. Five focus group interviews were carried out with a total of 17 postpartum women and two interviews with a total of six health professionals. Participants were recruited through the municipality in Svendborg, Denmark, and at Odense University Hospital in Odense, Denmark, during a four-month period in early 2018. Results: From the women’s perspective, better assistance is needed from the health professionals to obtain or maintain a healthy lifestyle. The women need tools that inform and help them understand and prioritise their own health-related risks, and to motivate them to plan and take care of their own health. As the women use Information Technology on a daily basis, the solution could be delivered through Information Technology. Finally, there is room for engaging the partner more in the communication related to the baby and family’s lifestyle. Conclusion: Postpartum women need tools that inform and motivate a healthy lifestyle postpartum. The tools should allow access to high-quality information from health care professionals, when the information is needed, and also allow engagement from the partner. Finally, Information Technology is a potential tool for delivering tools.

Keywords: information technology, lifestyle, overweight, postpartum

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Authors: Sibel Celik, Hüseyin Ergin

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The paper aims to find the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. For this purpose, we compare performance of different volatility models-both traditional GARCH model and high frequency based volatility models- and conclude that both in pre-crisis and crisis period, the performance of high frequency based volatility models are better than traditional GARCH model. The findings of paper are important for policy makers, financial institutions and investors.

Keywords: volatility, GARCH model, realized volatility, high frequency data

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Authors: Elad Harison

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The paper identifies the complex links between post-COVID-19 inflationary pressures and global supply chains. Throughout the COVID-19 lockdowns and long periods after the termination of social distancing policies, consumers, notably in the U.S., have confronted and still face disruptions in the supply of goods. The study analyzes the monetary policy in the U.S. that led to the significant shift in consumer demand during a limited supply period, hence resulting in shortages and emphasizing inflationary dynamics. We argue that the monetary guidelines applied by the U.S. government further elevated the scope of supply chain disruptions.

Keywords: consumer demand, COVID-19, inflation, monetary policy, supply chain

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Authors: Kimberley Rain Miner, Karl Kreutz, Larry LeBlanc

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During the period of 1950-1970 persistent organic pollutants such as DDT, dioxin and PCB were released in the atmosphere and distributed through precipitation into glaciers throughout the world. Recent abrupt climate change is increasing the melt rate of these glaciers, introducing the toxins to the watershed. Studies have shown the existence of legacy pollutants in glacial ice, but neither the impact nor quantity of these toxins on downstream populations has been assessed. If these pollutants are released at toxic levels it will be necessary to create a mitigation plan to lower their impact on the affected communities.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, mitigation, risk management

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Authors: Enoch Kudoahor, Nan Zheng

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We describe the use of readily available self-doped TiO2 and visible light, under a mild condition to synthesize a class of monocyclic, bicyclic, and benzocyclobutene amino compounds containing the endoperoxide bridges; their derivatives and further test their effective clinical activities against malaria, cancer, and their resistances. Considering their stable under photooxidation conditions and recyclability, we use a self-doped TiO2 under a visible condition to synthesize these classes of amino endoperoxides. These amino endoperoxides are stable over a period compared to classes of endoperoxides.

Keywords: catalysis, endoperoxides, titanium dioxide, visible light

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Authors: Ashraf M. Ward, Ruban S. Yu

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Data consisting of 2757 records from tow Holstein herds made between 2000 and 2010 were used to examine environmental factors affecting age at first calving (AFC) and calving intervals (CI) and consequently estimate genetic and phenotypic parameters and trends. The overall means and standard errors for AFC and CI were 39.4 ± 7.2 months and 487.5 ± 151.6 days respectively. The respective heritability estimates were 0.091 ± 0.05 and 0.044 ± 0.032, while the repeatability estimate for CI was 0.096 ± 0.001. The genetic trends for CI and AFC were -0.6 d/yr and -0.01 mo/yr respectively and were both significant (P < 0.001), indicating a decrease in mean breeding value over the study period. Phenotypic trends were -0.31 mo/yr and -0.35 d/yr for AFC and CI respectively though non-significant (P > 0.05). The low heritability for CI and AFC indicated that temporary environmental influences were much greater than genetic influences or permanent environmental influences on these traits.

Keywords: Holstein, reproductive, genetic parameters, heritability

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Authors: Dávid Csercsik, Péter Kádár

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In the case of the proposed method, the problem is parallelized by considering multiple possible mode of operation profiles, which determine the range in which the generators operate in each period. For each of these profiles, the optimization is carried out independently, and the best resulting dispatch is chosen. For each such profile, the resulting problem is a quadratic programming (QP) problem with a potentially negative definite Q quadratic term, and constraints depending on the actual operation profile. In this paper we analyze the performance of available MATLAB optimization methods and solvers for the corresponding QP.

Keywords: optimization, MATLAB, quadratic programming, economic dispatch

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Authors: Andrew Gryguć, Seyed Behzad Behravesh, Hamid Jahed, Mary Wells, Wojciech Macek, Bruce Williams

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This extended abstract investigates the influence of the multiaxial loading on the fatigue behavior of forged magnesium through quantitative analysis of its fracture surface topography and mesoscopic cracking orientation. Fatigue tests were performed on hollow tubular sample geometries extracted from closed-die forged AZ80 Mg components, with three different multiaxial strain paths (axial/shear), proportional, 45° out of phase, and 90° out of phase. Regardless of the strain path, fatigue cracks are initiated at the outer surface of the specimen where the combined stress state is largest. Depending on the salient mode of deformation, distinctive features in the fracture surface manifested themselves with different topographic amplitudes, surface roughness, and mesoscopic cracking orientation in the vicinity of the initiation site. The dominant crack propagation path was in the circumferential direction of the hollow tubular specimen (i.e., cracking transverse to the sample axis, with little to no branching), which is congruent with previous findings of low to moderate shear strain energy density (SED) multiaxial loading. For proportional loading, the initiation zone surface morphology was largely flat and striated, whereas, at phase angles of 45° and 90°, the initiation surface became more faceted and inclined. Overall, both a qualitative and quantitative link was developed between the fracture surface morphology and the level of non-proportionality in the loading providing useful insight into the fracture mechanics of forged magnesium as a relevant focus for future study.

Keywords: fatigue, fracture, magnesium, forging, fractography, anisotropy, strain energy density, asymmetry, multiaxial fatigue

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Authors: Moayyad Shawaqfah, Ibtehal Alqdah, Amjad Adaileh

Abstract:

Coridoor area (400 km2) lies to the north – east of Amman (60 km). It lies between 285-305 E longitude and 165-185 N latitude (according to Palestine Grid). It been subjected to exploitation of groundwater from new eleven wells since the 1999 with a total discharge of 11 MCM in addition to the previous discharge rate from the well field 14.7 MCM. Consequently, the aquifer balance is disturbed and a major decline in water level. Therefore, suitable groundwater resources management is required to overcome the problems of over pumping and its effect on groundwater quality. Three–dimensional groundwater flow model Processing Modeflow for Windows Pro (PMWIN PRO, 2003) has been used in order to calculate the groundwater budget, aquifer characteristics, and to predict the aquifer response under different stresses for the next 20 years (2035). The model was calibrated for steady state conditions by trial and error calibration. The calibration was performed by matching observed and calculated initial heads for year 2001. Drawdown data for period 2001-2010 were used to calibrate transient model by matching calculated with observed one, after that, the transient model was validated by using the drawdown data for the period 2011-2014. The hydraulic conductivities of the Basalt- A7/B2 aquifer System are ranging between 1.0 and 8.0 m/day. The low conductivity value was found at the north-west and south-western parts of the study area, the high conductivity value was found at north-western corner of the study area and the average storage coefficient is about 0.025. The water balance for the Basalt and B2/A7 formation at steady state condition with a discrepancy of 0.003%. The major inflows come from Jebal Al Arab through the basalt and through the limestone aquifer (B2/A7 12.28 MCMY aquifer and from excess rainfall is about 0.68 MCM/a. While the major outflows from the Basalt-B2/A7 aquifer system are toward Azraq basin with about 5.03 MCMY and leakage to A1/6 aquitard with 7.89 MCMY. Four scenarios have been performed to predict aquifer system responses under different conditions. Scenario no.2 was found to be the best one which indicates that the reduction the abstraction rates by 50% of current withdrawal rate (25.08 MCMY) to 12.54 MCMY. The maximum drawdowns were decreased to reach about, 7.67 and 8.38m in the years 2025 and 2035 respectively.

Keywords: Amman/Zarqa Basin, Jordan, groundwater management, groundwater modeling, modflow

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Authors: Juan Zhou, Lusan Liu, Yanzhong Zhu, Kuixuan Lin, Wenqian Cai, Yu Wang, Xing Wang

Abstract:

During the past few decades, there has been an increase in the number of coastal land reclamation projects for residential, commercial and industrial purposes in more and more coastal cities of China, which led to the destruction of the wetlands and loss of the sensitive marine habitats. Meanwhile, the influences and nature of these projects attract widespread public and academic concern. For identifying the trend of landscape (esp. Coastal reclamation) and ecological environment changes, understanding of which interacted, and offering a general science for the development of regional plans. In the paper, a case study was carried out in Bohai Bay area, based on the analysis of remote sensing data. Land use maps were created for 1954, 1970, 1981, 1990, 2000 and 2010. Landscape metrics were calculated and illustrated that the degree of reclamation changes was linked to the hydrodynamic environment and macrobenthos community. The results indicated that the worst of the loss of initial areas occurred during 1954-1970, with 65.6% lost mostly to salt field; to 2010, Coastal reclamation area increased more than 200km² as artificial landscape. The numerical simulation of tidal current field in 2003 and 2010 respectively showed that the flow velocity in offshore became faster (from 2-5 cm/s to 10-20 cm/s), and the flow direction seem to go astray. These significant changes of coastline were not conducive to the spread of pollutants and degradation. Additionally, the dominant macrobenthos analysis from 1958 to 2012 showed that Musculus senhousei (Benson, 1842) spread very fast and had been the predominant species in the recent years, which was a disturbance tolerant species.

Keywords: Bohai Bay, coastal reclamation, landscape change, spatial patterns

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Authors: Teguh Sugiarto, Ahmad Subagyo, Ludiro Madu, Amir Mohammadian Amiri

Abstract:

Recently, the significant fluctuations accosiated with Indonesian economy justifies the need for paying more attention to this issue. In this regard, the main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between two issues related to the macro Indonesia economy called consumption and GDP during the period of 1967 to 2014. This research method exploits short term and long term relationships using Granger and subsequently, models them by the causality method . However, using analysis of Granger with Johansen shows that there is not only a long term, but also a short-long relationship between GDP and consumption using lags the interval 5.

Keywords: cointegration, Granger causality, GDP, consumption

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Authors: Saeidreza Radpour, Md. Alam Mondal, Amit Kumar

Abstract:

Market penetration of high energy efficiency technologies has key impacts on energy consumption and GHG mitigation. Also, it will be useful to manage the policies formulated by public or private organizations to achieve energy or environmental targets. Energy intensity in residential sector of Alberta was 148.8 GJ per household in 2012 which is 39% more than the average of Canada 106.6 GJ, it was the highest amount among the provinces on per household energy consumption. Energy intensity by appliances of Alberta was 15.3 GJ per household in 2012 which is 14% higher than average value of other provinces and territories in energy demand intensity by appliances in Canada. In this research, a framework has been developed to analyze the market penetration and market share of high energy efficiency technologies in residential sector. The overall methodology was based on development of data-intensive models’ estimation of the market penetration of the appliances in the residential sector over a time period. The developed models were a function of a number of macroeconomic and technical parameters. Developed mathematical equations were developed based on twenty-two years of historical data (1990-2011). The models were analyzed through a series of statistical tests. The market shares of high efficiency appliances were estimated based on the related variables such as capital and operating costs, discount rate, appliance’s life time, annual interest rate, incentives and maximum achievable efficiency in the period of 2015 to 2050. Results show that the market penetration of refrigerators is higher than that of other appliances. The stocks of refrigerators per household are anticipated to increase from 1.28 in 2012 to 1.314 and 1.328 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Modelling results show that the market penetration rate of stand-alone freezers will decrease between 2012 and 2050. Freezer stock per household will decline from 0.634 in 2012 to 0.556 and 0.515 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The stock of dishwashers per household is expected to increase from 0.761 in 2012 to 0.865 and 0.960 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The increase in the market penetration rate of clothes washers and clothes dryers is nearly parallel. The stock of clothes washers and clothes dryers per household is expected to rise from 0.893 and 0.979 in 2012 to 0.960 and 1.0 in 2050, respectively. This proposed presentation will include detailed discussion on the modelling methodology and results.

Keywords: appliances efficiency improvement, energy star, market penetration, residential sector

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