Search results for: Boltzmann statistics

Authors: Kim Katherine Castillo, Nelson John Datubatang, Terrence Phillip Dy, Norelie Hampac, Reichen Crismark Martinez, Nina Faith Pantinople, Jose Dante Santos II, Marchel Ann Santos, Sophia Abigail Santiago, Zyrill Xsar San Juan, Aira Mae Tagao, Crystal Kylla Viagedor

Abstract:

The Work Immersion Program was implemented to help students gain abundant work-related experiences while on-site; additionally, the program aims to help students improve their competencies and interpersonal skills as they are given the option to join the workforce if they ever choose to do so after senior high school. The work immersion experience posed diverse challenges for students, spanning personal, financial, engagement, environmental, and equipment-related domains. These included the need for assistance in time management, transportation expenses, and procurement of materials. Furthermore, students faced difficulties in independent task completion and encountered suboptimal work environments. Addressing these multifaceted obstacles is crucial to optimize the educational outcomes of work immersion programs. In addition to the challenges, several other issues have been identified, including the absence of standardized work immersion programs across schools and industries, the challenges in securing appropriate work immersion placements, the necessity for enhanced monitoring and evaluation of program effectiveness, and the limited availability of field programs aligned with students' chosen courses. Furthermore, there is a lack of comprehensive information regarding the attitudes of Senior High School students toward work immersion programs within their respective schools. This study aims to investigate the attitudes of senior high school students at Nazareth School of National University towards work immersion programs, with a focus on identifying factors that influence their perception and participation, including collegiality and expectations. By exploring the students' attitudes, the research endeavors to enhance the school's work immersion programs and contribute to the overall educational experience of the students. This study addresses challenges related to work immersion programs, focusing on six subtopics: Work Immersion, Work Immersion in the Philippines, Students' Attitudes, Factors Affecting Students' Attitudes, Effectiveness of Work Immersion for Senior High School Students, and Students' Perception and Willingness to Participate. Using a descriptive research design, the study examines the attitudes of senior high school students at Nazareth School of National University in Manila. Data was collected from 100 students, representing different academic strands, through a 35-item researcher-made survey. Descriptive statistics, including measures of central tendency and variability, will be used to analyze the data using JASP, providing valuable insights into the students' attitudes toward work immersion.

Keywords: attitudes, challenges, educational outcomes, work immersion programs

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Jacqueline P. Davies

Abstract:

Introduction: Student nurses must develop skills in observation, communication and reflection as well as public health knowledge from their first year of training. This paper will explain a method developed for students to collect their own findings about public health in urban areas. These areas are both rich in the history of old public health that informs the content of many traditional public health walks, but are also locations where new public health concerns about chronic disease are concentrated. The learning method explained in this paper enables students to collect their own data and write original work as first year students. Examples of their findings will be given. Methodology: In small groups, health care students are instructed to walk in neighbourhoods near to the hospitals they will soon attend as apprentice nurses. On their walks, they wander slowly, engage in conversations, and enter places open to the public. As they drift, they observe with all five senses in the real three dimensional world to collect data for their reflective accounts of old and new public health. They are encouraged to stop for refreshments and taste, as well as look, hear, smell, and touch while on their walk. They reflect as a group and later develop an individual reflective account in which they write up their deep reflections about what they observed on their walk. In preparation for their walk, they are encouraged to look at studies of quality of Life and other neighbourhood statistics as well as undertaking a risk assessment for their walk. Findings: Reflecting on their walks, students apply theoretical concepts around social determinants of health and health inequalities to develop their understanding of communities in the neighbourhoods visited. They write about the treasured historical architecture made of stone, bronze and marble which have outlived those who built them; but also how the streets are used now. The students develop their observations into thematic analyses such as: what we drink as illustrated by the empty coke can tossed into a now disused drinking fountain; the shift in home-life balance illustrated by streets where families once lived over the shop which are now walked by commuters weaving around each other as they talk on their mobile phones; and security on the street, with CCTV cameras placed at regular intervals, signs warning trespasses and barbed wire; but little evidence of local people watching the street. Conclusion: In evaluations of their first year, students have reported the health walk as one of their best experiences. The innovative approach was commended by the UK governing body of nurse education and it received a quality award from the nurse education funding body. This approach to education allows students to develop skills in the real world and write original work.

Keywords: education, innovation, nursing, urban

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Nursyafiq Ali Shibramulisi, Nor Farah Fauzi, Nur Azniza Zawin Anuar, Nurul Atikah Azmi, Janice Hew Pei Fang

Abstract:

Background: Work related musculoskeletal disorders (WRMD) among dental personnel have been underestimated and under-reported worldwide and specifically in Malaysia. The problem will arise and progress slowly over time, as it results from accumulated injury throughout the period of work. Several risk factors, such as repetitive movement, static posture, vibration, and adapting poor working postures, have been identified to be contributing to WRMSD in dental practices. Dental personnel is at higher risk of getting this problem as it is their working nature and core business. This would cause pain and dysfunction syndrome among them and result in absence from work and substandard services to their patients. Methodology: A cross-sectional study involving 19 government dental clinics in Perak was done over the period of 3 months. Those who met the criteria were selected to participate in this study. Malay version of the Self-Reported Nordic Musculoskeletal Discomfort Form was used to identify the prevalence of WRMSD, while the intensity of pain in the respective regions was evaluated using a 10-point scale according to ‘Pain as The 5ᵗʰ Vital Sign’ by MOH Malaysia and later on were analyzed using SPSS version 25. Descriptive statistics, including mean and SD and median and IQR, were used for numerical data. Categorical data were described by percentage. Pearson’s Chi-Square Test and Spearman’s Correlation were used to find the association between the prevalence of WRMSD and other socio-demographic data. Results: 159 dentists, 73 dental therapists, 26 dental lab technicians, 81 dental surgery assistants, and 23 dental attendants participated in this study. The mean age for the participants was 34.9±7.4 and their mean years of service was 9.97±7.5. Most of them were female (78.5%), Malay (71.3%), married (69.6%) and right-handed (90.1%). The highest prevalence of WRMSD was neck (58.0%), followed by shoulder (48.1%), upper back (42.0%), lower back (40.6%), hand/wrist (31.5%), feet (21.3%), knee (12.2%), thigh 7.7%) and lastly elbow (6.9%). Most of those who reported having neck pain scaled their pain experiences at 2 out of 10 (19.5%), while for those who suffered upper back discomfort, most of them scaled their pain experience at 6 out of 10 (17.8%). It was found that there was a significant relationship between age and pain at neck (p=0.007), elbow (p=0.027), lower back (p=0.032), thigh (p=0.039), knee (p=0.001) and feet (p=0.000) regions. Job position also had been found to be having a significant relationship with pain experienced at the lower back (p=0.018), thigh (p=0.011), knee, and feet (p=0.000). Conclusion: The prevalence of WRMSD among dental personnel in Perak was found to be high. Age and job position were found to be having a significant relationship with pain experienced in several regions. Intervention programs should be planned and conducted to prevent and reduce the occurrence of WRMSD, as all harmful or unergonomic practices should be avoided at all costs.

Keywords: WRMSD, ergonomic, dentistry, dental

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Mohsen Hababalahi, Morteza Bastami

Abstract:

Buried pipeline damage correlations are critical part of loss estimation procedures applied to lifelines for future earthquakes. The vulnerability of buried pipelines against earthquake and liquefaction has been observed during some of previous earthquakes and there are a lot of comprehensive reports about this event. One of the main reasons for impairment of buried pipelines during earthquake is liquefaction. Necessary conditions for this phenomenon are loose sandy soil, saturation of soil layer and earthquake intensity. Because of this fact that pipelines structure are very different from other structures (being long and having light mass) by paying attention to the results of previous earthquakes and compare them with other structures, it is obvious that the danger of liquefaction for buried pipelines is not high risked, unless effective parameters like earthquake intensity and non-dense soil and other factors be high. Recent liquefaction researches for buried pipeline include experimental and theoretical ones as well as damage investigations during actual earthquakes. The damage investigations have revealed that a damage ratio of pipelines (Number/km ) has much larger values in liquefied grounds compared with one in shaking grounds without liquefaction according to damage statistics during past severe earthquakes, and that damages of joints and pipelines connected with manholes were remarkable. The purpose of this research is numerical study of buried pipelines under the effect of liquefaction by case study of the 2013 Dashti (Iran) earthquake. Water supply and electrical distribution systems of this township interrupted during earthquake and water transmission pipelines were damaged severely due to occurrence of liquefaction. The model consists of a polyethylene pipeline with 100 meters length and 0.8 meter diameter which is covered by light sandy soil and the depth of burial is 2.5 meters from surface. Since finite element method is used relatively successfully in order to solve geotechnical problems, we used this method for numerical analysis. For evaluating this case, some information like geotechnical information, classification of earthquakes levels, determining the effective parameters in probability of liquefaction, three dimensional numerical finite element modeling of interaction between soil and pipelines are necessary. The results of this study on buried pipelines indicate that the effect of liquefaction is function of pipe diameter, type of soil, and peak ground acceleration. There is a clear increase in percentage of damage with increasing the liquefaction severity. The results indicate that although in this form of the analysis, the damage is always associated to a certain pipe material, but the nominally defined “failures” include by failures of particular components (joints, connections, fire hydrant details, crossovers, laterals) rather than material failures. At the end, there are some retrofit suggestions in order to decrease the risk of liquefaction on buried pipelines.

Keywords: liquefaction, buried pipelines, lifelines, earthquake, finite element method

Procedia PDF Downloads 513

Authors: Fabiola Xavier Leal, Lara Campanharo, Sueli Aparecida Rodrigues Lucas

Abstract:

The phenomenon of judicialization in health policy brings with it a great deal of problematization, but in general, it means that some issues that were previously solved by traditional political bodies are being decided by the Judiciary bodies. It is, therefore, a controversial topic that has generated many reflections both in the academic and political fields, considering that not only a dispute of public funds is at stake, but also the debate on access to social rights provided for in the Brazilian Federal Constitution of 1988 and in the various public policies, such as healthcare. With regard to the phenomenon in the Mental Health Policy focusing on people who use drugs, the disputes that permeate this scenario are evident: moral, cultural, sanitary, economic, psychological aspects. There are also the individual and collective dimensions of suffering. And in this process, we all question: What is the role of the Brazilian State in this matter? In this context, another question that needs to be answered is the amount spent on this procedure in the state of Espírito Santo (ES), Brazil (in the last 04 years, around R$121,978,591.44 were paid only for compulsory hospitalization of individuals) in the field in question, which is the financing of the services of the Psychosocial Care Network (RAPS). Therefore, this article aims to problematize the phenomenon of judicialization in Mental Health Policy through the compulsory hospitalization of people who use drugs in Espírito Santo (ES). We proposed a study that sought to understand how this has been occurring and making an impact on the provision of RAPS services in the Espírito Santo scenario. Therefore, the general objective of this study is to analyze the expenses with compulsory hospitalizations for drug use carried out by the State Health Department (SESA) between 2014 and 2019, in which we will seek to identify its destination and the impact of these actions on public health policy. For the purposes of this article, we will present the preliminary data of this study, such as the amount spent by the state and the receiving institutions. For data collection, the following data sources were used: documents available publicly on the Transparency Portal (payments made per year, institutions that received, subjects hospitalized, period and the amount of the daily rates paid); as well as the processes generated by SESA through its own system - ONBASE. For qualitative analysis, content analysis was used; and for quantitative analysis, descriptive statistics was used. Thus, we seek to problematize the issue of judicialization for compulsory hospitalizations, considering the current situation in which this resource has been widely requested to legitimize the war on drugs. This scenario highlights the moral-legal discourse, pointing out strategies through the control of bodies and through faith as an alternative.

Keywords: compulsory hospitalization, drugs, judicialization, mental health

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Miguel Angel Calvo Salve

Abstract:

This qualitative and quantitative study will identify the impact of tourism pressure on the intangible cultural heritage of the pilgrim route of El Camino de Santiago (Saint James Way) and propose an approach to a sustainable touristic model for these Cultural Routes. Since 1993, the Spanish Section of the Pilgrim Route of El Camino de Santiago has been on the World Heritage List. In 1994, the International Committee on Cultural Routes (CIIC-ICOMOS) initiated its work with the goal of studying, preserving, and promoting the cultural routes and their significance as a whole. Another ICOMOS group, the Charter on Cultural Routes, pointed out in 2008 the importance of both tangible and intangible heritage and the need for a holistic vision in preserving these important cultural assets. Tangible elements provide a physical confirmation of the existence of these cultural routes, while the intangible elements serve to give sense and meaning to it as a whole. Intangible assets of a Cultural Route are key to understanding the route's significance and its associated heritage values. Like many pilgrim routes, the Route to Santiago, as the result of a long evolutionary process, exhibits and is supported by intangible assets, including hospitality, cultural and religious expressions, music, literature, and artisanal trade, among others. A large increase in pilgrims walking the route, with very different aims and tourism pressure, has shown how the dynamic links between the intangible cultural heritage and the local inhabitants along El Camino are fragile and vulnerable. Economic benefits for the communities and population along the cultural routes are commonly fundamental for the micro-economies of the people living there, substituting traditional productive activities, which, in fact, modifies and has an impact on the surrounding environment and the route itself. Consumption of heritage is one of the major issues of sustainable preservation promoted with the intention of revitalizing those sites and places. The adaptation of local communities to new conditions aimed at preserving and protecting existing heritage has had a significant impact on immaterial inheritance. Based on questionnaires to pilgrims, tourists and local communities along El Camino during the peak season of the year, and using official statistics from the Galician Pilgrim’s Office, this study will identify the risk and threats to El Camino de Santiago as a Cultural Route. The threats visible nowadays due to the impact of mass tourism include transformations of tangible heritage, consumerism of the intangible, changes of local activities, loss in the authenticity of symbols and spiritual significance, and pilgrimage transformed into a tourism ‘product’, among others. The study will also approach some measures and solutions to mitigate those impacts and better preserve this type of cultural heritage. Therefore, this study will help the Route services providers and policymakers to better preserve the Cultural Route as a whole to ultimately improve the satisfying experience of pilgrims.

Keywords: cultural routes, El Camino de Santiago, impact of tourism, intangible heritage

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: H. E. Elzain, S. Y. Chung, V. Senapathi, Kye-Hun Park

Abstract:

Groundwater is considered a significant source for drinking and irrigation purposes in Miryang city, and it is attributed to a limited number of a surface water reservoirs and high seasonal variations in precipitation. Population growth in addition to the expansion of agricultural land uses and industrial development may affect the quality and management of groundwater. This research utilized multidisciplinary approaches of geostatistics such as multivariate statistics, factor analysis, cluster analysis and kriging technique in order to identify the hydrogeochemical process and characterizing the control factors of the groundwater geochemistry distribution for developing risk maps, exploiting data obtained from chemical investigation of groundwater samples under the area of study. A total of 79 samples have been collected and analyzed using atomic absorption spectrometer (AAS) for major and trace elements. Chemical maps using 2-D spatial Geographic Information System (GIS) of groundwater provided a powerful tool for detecting the possible potential sites of groundwater that involve the threat of contamination. GIS computer based map exhibited that the higher rate of contamination observed in the central and southern area with relatively less extent in the northern and southwestern parts. It could be attributed to the effect of irrigation, residual saline water, municipal sewage and livestock wastes. At wells elevation over than 85m, the scatter diagram represents that the groundwater of the research area was mainly influenced by saline water and NO3. Level of pH measurement revealed low acidic condition due to dissolved atmospheric CO2 in the soil, while the saline water had a major impact on the higher values of TDS and EC. Based on the cluster analysis results, the groundwater has been categorized into three group includes the CaHCO3 type of the fresh water, NaHCO3 type slightly influenced by sea water and Ca-Cl, Na-Cl types which are heavily affected by saline water. The most predominant water type was CaHCO3 in the study area. Contamination sources and chemical characteristics were identified from factor analysis interrelationship and cluster analysis. The chemical elements that belong to factor 1 analysis were related to the effect of sea water while the elements of factor 2 associated with agricultural fertilizers. The degree level, distribution, and location of groundwater contamination have been generated by using Kriging methods. Thus, geostatistics model provided more accurate results for identifying the source of contamination and evaluating the groundwater quality. GIS was also a creative tool to visualize and analyze the issues affecting water quality in the Miryang city.

Keywords: groundwater characteristics, GIS chemical maps, factor analysis, cluster analysis, Kriging techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Ahuva Even-Zohar, Shoshi Werner

Abstract:

Context: Sexuality is an important aspect of overall quality of life for individuals across different age groups and health conditions. Sexual interest and activity continue to be important and play a role in people's life as they age. Despite this, there is limited research on the sexual health of older adults. Research Aim: The study aims to examine the knowledge, attitudes, and sexual activity of older adults and to explore the relationship between sexual activity and quality of life among this population. Methodology: The study involved 203 Jewish participants from Israel, with an average age of 69.59. The participants completed questionnaires administered through an Internet panel. The questionnaires measured variables such as knowledge about and attitudes towards sexuality, sexual activity, quality of life, and socio-demographic information. Findings: The study found that a majority of the participants reported engaging in sexual activity, with most of them experiencing full sexual intercourse. Approximately half of the participants expressed high levels of satisfaction with their sexual activity. The results indicated that older adults demonstrated a moderate level of knowledge and permissive attitudes towards sexuality in later life. Moreover, higher levels of knowledge and permissive attitudes were associated with increased sexual activity. The frequency of sexual activity was identified as a predictor of quality of life, with a mediating effect on the relationship between attitudes towards older adults' sexuality and quality of life. Notably, men and older adults who were married or in a relationship reported higher frequencies of sexual activity compared to women and older adults without a partner. Furthermore, a majority of participants did not seek professional help or discuss their sexual concerns with a therapist. Theoretical Importance: This research contributes to our understanding of a topic that is often considered taboo - sexuality among older adults. It highlights that older adults maintain an interest in sexual activity, and that engaging in such activity contributes to their overall quality of life. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The data for this study were collected using structured questionnaires administered through an Internet panel. The questionnaires included closed-ended questions, allowing for quantitative data analysis. Descriptive statistics and regression analysis were performed to examine the relationships between the variables. Questions Addressed: This study aimed to address the following questions: What is the level of knowledge and attitudes towards sexuality among older adults? How prevalent is sexual activity among older adults and what factors are associated with it? How does sexual activity impact the quality of life of older adults? Do older adults seek professional help for their sexual concerns? Conclusion: The main conclusion drawn from this research is that sexuality is a crucial aspect of older adults' lives and significantly contributes to their quality of life. The study emphasizes the need for educational programs aimed at older adults and professionals, which promote the understanding and benefits of sexuality in later life. It also suggests that professionals should actively encourage older individuals to seek help and support when experiencing difficulties related to sexuality.

Keywords: men, older adults, quality of life, sexuality, women

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Ming-Chien Su, Yi-Zih Chen, Nien-Hsin Kao, Hideaki Shibata

Abstract:

The major component of the atmosphere is nitrogen, yet atmospheric nitrogen has limited availability for biological use. Human activities have produced different types of nitrogen related compounds such as nitrogen oxides from combustion, nitrogen fertilizers from farming, and the nitrogen compounds from waste and wastewater, all of which have impacted the environment. Many studies have indicated the N-footprint is dominated by food, followed by housing, transportation, and goods and services sectors. To solve the impact issues from agricultural land, nitrogen cycle research is one of the key solutions. The study site is located in Hualien County, Taiwan, a major rice and food production area of Taiwan. Importantly, environmentally friendly farming has been promoted for years, and an environmental indicator system has been established by previous authors based on the concept of resilience capacity index (RCI) and environmental performance index (EPI). Nitrogen management is required for food production, as excess N causes environmental pollution. Therefore it is very important to develop a roadmap of the nitrogen footprint, and to integrate it with environmental indicators. The key focus of the study thus addresses (1) understanding the environmental impact caused by the nitrogen cycle of food products and (2) uncovering the trend of the N-footprint of agricultural products in Hualien, Taiwan. The N-footprint model was applied, which included both crops and energy consumption in the area. All data were adapted from government statistics databases and crosschecked for consistency before modeling. The actions involved with agricultural production were evaluated and analyzed for nitrogen loss to the environment, as well as measuring the impacts to humans and the environment. The results showed that rice makes up the largest share of agricultural production by weight, at 80%. The dominant meat production is pork (52%) and poultry (40%); fish and seafood were at similar levels to pork production. The average per capita food consumption in Taiwan is 2643.38 kcal capita−1 d−1, primarily from rice (430.58 kcal), meats (184.93 kcal) and wheat (ca. 356.44 kcal). The average protein uptake is 87.34 g capita−1 d−1, and 51% is mainly from meat, milk, and eggs. The preliminary results showed that the nitrogen footprint of food production is 34 kg N per capita per year, congruent with the results of Shibata et al. (2014) for Japan. These results provide a better understanding of the nitrogen demand and loss in the environment, and the roadmap can furthermore support the establishment of nitrogen policy and strategy. Additionally, the results serve to develop a roadmap of the nitrogen cycle of an environmentally friendly farming area, thus illuminating the nitrogen demand and loss of such areas.

Keywords: agriculture productions, energy consumption, environmental indicator, nitrogen footprint

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Arup Pramanik

Abstract:

Most of the cities in the developing countries like Siliguri Municipal Corporation Area (SMCA) and Raiganj Municipality (RM) in West Bengal, India are changing typically in terms of demographic, economic and social relationship due to rapid pace of urbanization. The mushrooming growth of slums in SMCA and RM is the direct consequence of urbanization and migration due to regional imbalance, unbalanced growth process which is posing a serious threat to sustainable development of the country. Almost all the slums happen to be a breeding ground for poverty, negligence, and disease. Unpredictable growth of slums and poverty alleviation has now become a serious challenge to the global and national policy makers for the development of the slum dwellers. The ethical dimension of the poor in the cities like SMCA and RM stands on equal opportunities, inclusive and harmonious living without discrimination of any kind. But, the migrant slum dwellers in SMCA and RM do not possess high skill or education to enable them to find well paid employment in the formal sector and the surplus urban labour force is compelled to generate its own means of employment and survival in the informal sector. The survey data of the households has been analysedin terms of percentage, descriptive statistics which includes mean, Standard Deviation (SD), ANOVA (Mean Difference) etc., to analyse the socio economic variables of the households. The study shows that the migrant labour forces living in the slums are derived from the social security measures in both the municipal areas of SMCA and RM. The urban poor in the cities of SMCA and RM rely heavily on social capital amongst all the capital assets to help them ‘get by’ and ‘get ahead’. Despite, the slum dwellers in the study areas are vulnerable with respect to other determinants of capital assets. It is noteworthy that Indian plans of anti-poverty programmes was in a proper place even after the neo-liberal regime, where the basic idea behind the massive shift of various welfare and service oriented strategy to poverty reduction strategy for the benefit of the urban poor with the trickle down effects. But, the overall impact of the trickledown effect was unsatisfactory. The objective of the Paper is to assess the magnitude of migration and absorption in the urban labour market. Issues relating to capital formation, social security measures and the support of the Welfare State in order to meet 'Sustainable Development Goals'. This study also highlights the quality of life of urban poor migrants in terms of capital formation and livelihoods.

Keywords: migration, slums, labour market, capital formation, social security

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Dieudonne Uwizeye, Reuben Muhayiteto

Abstract:

Teenage pregnancy is a challenging problem for sustainable development due to restrictions it poses to socioeconomic opportunities for young mothers, their children and families. Being unable to take appropriate economic and social responsibilities, teen mothers get trapped into poverty and become economic burden to their family and country. Besides, teenage pregnancy is also a health problem because children born to very young mothers are vulnerable with greater risk of illnesses and deaths, and teenage mothers are more likely to be exposed to greater risk of maternal mortality and to other health and psychological problems. In Kigali city, in Rwanda, teenage pregnancy rate is currently high and its increase in recent years is worrisome. However, only individual factors influencing the teenage pregnancy tend to be the basis of interventions. It is important to understand the important socioeconomic factors at the household level that are associated with teenage pregnancy to help government, parents, and other stakeholders to appropriately address the problem with sustainable measures. This study analyzed secondary data from the Fifth Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (RDHS-V 2014-2015) conducted by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR). The aim was to examine household socio-economic factors that are associated with incidence of teenage pregnancies in Kigali city. In addition to descriptive analysis, Pearson’s Chi Square and Binary Logistic Regression were used in the analysis. Findings indicate that marital status and age of household head, number of members in a household, number of rooms used for sleeping, educational level of the household head and household's wealth are significantly associated with teenage pregnancy in Rwanda ( p< 0.05). It was found that teenagers living with parents, those having parents with higher education and those from richer families are less likely to become pregnant. Age of household head was pinpointed as factor to teenage pregnancy, with teenage-headed households being more vulnerable. The findings also revealed that household composition correlates with the probability of teenage pregnancy (p < 0.05) with teenagers from households with less number of members being more vulnerable. Regarding the size of the house, the study suggested that the more rooms available in households, the less incidences of teenage pregnancy are likely to be observed (p < 0.05). However, teenage pregnancy was not significantly associated with physical violence among parents (p = 0.65) and sex of household heads (p = 0.52), except in teen-headed households of which female are predominantly heads. The study concludes that teenage pregnancy remains a serious social, economic and health problem in Rwanda. The study informs government officials, parents and other stakeholders to take interventions and preventive measures through community sex education, policies and strategies to foster effective parental guidance, care and control of young girls through meeting their necessary social and financial needs within households.

Keywords: household socio-economic factors, Rwanda, Rwanda demographic and health survey, teenage pregnancy

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Benyam Zenebe, Tesfaye Sisay, Gurja Belay, Workabeba Abebe

Abstract:

Background: The prevalence and antibiogram of pathogenic E. coli strains, which cause diarrhea vary from region to region, and even within countries in the same geographical area. In Ethiopia, diagnostic approaches to E. coli induced diarrhea in children less than five years of age are not standardized. The aim of this study was to determine the involvement of pathogenic E. coli strains in child diarrhea and determine the antibiograms of the isolates in children less than 5 years of age with diarrhea at Addis Ababa University College of Health Sciences TikurAnbessa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods: A purposive study that included 98 diarrheic children less than five years of age was conducted at Addis Ababa University College of Health Sciences, TikurAnbessa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to detect pathogenic E. coli biotypes. Stool culture was used to identify presumptive E. coliisolates. Presumptive isolates were confirmed by biochemical tests, and antimicrobial susceptibility tests were performed on confirmed E. coli isolates by the disk diffusion method. DNA was extracted from confirmed isolates by a heating method and subjected to Polymerase Chain Reaction or the presence of virulence genes. Amplified PCR products were analyzed by agarose gel electrophoresis. Data were collected on child demographics and clinical conditions using administered questionnaires. The prevalence of E. coli strains from the total diarrheic children, and the prevalence of pathogenic strains from total E. coli isolates along with their susceptibility profiles; the distribution of pathogenic E.coli biotypes among different age groups and between the sexes were determined by using descriptive statistics. Result: Out of 98 stool specimens collected from diarrheic children less than 5 years of age, 75 presumptive E. coli isolates were identified by culture; further confirmation by biochemical tests showed that only 56 of the isolates were E. coli; 29 of the isolates were found in male children and 27 of them in female children. Out of the 58 isolates of E. coli, 25 pathotypes belonging to different classes of pathogenic strains: STEC, EPEC, EHEC, EAEC were detected by using the PCR technique. Pathogenic E. coli exhibited high rates of antibiotic resistance to many of the antibiotics tested. Moreover, they exhibited multiple drug resistance. Conclusion: This study found that the isolation rate of E. coli and the involvement of antibiotic-resistant pathogenic E. coli in diarrheic children is prominent, and hence focus should be given on the diagnosis and antimicrobial sensitivity testing of pathogenic E. coli at Addis Ababa University College of Health Sciences TikurAnbessa Specialized Hospital. Among antibiotics tested, Cefotitan could be a drug of choice to treat E. coli.

Keywords: antibiotic susceptibility profile, children, diarrhea, E. coli, pathogenic

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Oto J. Okwu, Ornan Henry, Victor A. Otene

Abstract:

The agricultural sector contributes a great deal to the sustenance of Nigeria’s food security and economy, with an attendant impact on rural development. In spite of the relatively high number of farmers in the country, self-sufficiency in food production is still a challenge. Farmers are faced with myriad problems which hinder their production efficiency, one of which is their access to agricultural inputs required for optimum production. To meet the challenges faced by farmers, the government at the federal level has come up with many agricultural policies, one of which is the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA). The Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS) is one of the critical components of ATA, which is aimed at ensuring the effective distribution of agricultural inputs delivered directly to farmers, and at a regulated cost. After about 8 years of launching this policy, it will be necessary to carry out an assessment of GESS and determine the impact it has made on rural farmers with respect to their access to farm inputs. This study was carried out to assess the Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS) in Adamawa State, Nigeria. Crop farmers who registered under the GESS in Adamawa State, Nigeria, formed the population for the study. Primary data for the study were obtained through a survey, and the use of a structured questionnaire. A sample size of 167 respondents was selected using multi-stage, purposive, and random sampling techniques. The validity and reliability of the research instrument (questionnaire) were obtained through pilot testing and test-retest method, respectively. The objectives of the study were to determine the difference in the level of access to agricultural inputs before and after GESS, determine the difference in cost of agricultural inputs before and after GESS, and to determine the challenges faced by rural farmers in accessing agricultural inputs through GESS. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used in analyzing the collected data. Specifically, Mann-Whitney, student t-test, and factor analysis were used to test the stated hypotheses. Research findings revealed there was a significant difference in the level of access to farm inputs after the introduction of GESS (Z=14.216). Also, there was a significant difference in the cost of agro-inputs after the introduction of GESS (Pr |T| > |t|= 0.0000). The challenges faced by respondents in accessing agro-inputs through GESS were administrative and technical in nature. Based on the findings of the research, it was recommended that efforts be made by the government to sustain the GESS, as it has significantly improved the level of farmers’ access to agricultural inputs and has reduced the cost of agro-inputs, while administrative challenges faced by the respondents in accessing inputs be addressed by the government, and extension agents assist the farmers to overcome the technical challenges they face in accessing inputs.

Keywords: agricultural policy, agro-inputs, assessment, growth enhancement support scheme, rural farmers

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Neha P. Amin, Maliha Zainib, Sean Parker, Malcolm Mattes

Abstract:

Purpose/Objectives: Combination immunotherapy (IT) and radiation therapy (RT) is an actively growing field of clinical investigation due to promising findings of synergistic effects from immune-mediated mechanisms observed in preclinical studies and clinical data from case reports of abscopal effects. While there are many ongoing trials of combined IT-RT, there are still limited data on toxicity and outcome optimization regarding RT dose, fractionation, and sequencing of RT with IT. Nivolumab (NIVO), an anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody, has been rapidly adopted in the clinic over the past 2 years, resulting in more patients being considered for concurrent RT-NIVO. Knowledge about the toxicity profile of combined RT-NIVO is important for both the patient and physician when making educated treatment decisions. The acute toxicity profile of concurrent RT-NIVO was analyzed in this study. Materials/Methods: A retrospective review of all consecutive patients who received NIVO from 1/2015 to 5/2017 at 4 separate centers within two separate institutions was performed. Those patients who completed a course of RT from 1 day prior to initial NIVO infusion through 1 month after last NIVO infusion were considered to have received concurrent therapy and included in the subsequent analysis. Descriptive statistics are reported for patient/tumor/treatment characteristics and observed acute toxicities within 3 months of RT completion. Results: Among 261 patients who received NIVO, 46 (17.6%) received concurrent RT to 67 different sites. The median f/u was 3.3 (.1-19.8) months, and 11/46 (24%) were still alive at last analysis. The most common histology, RT prescription, and treatment site included non-small cell lung cancer (23/46, 50%), 30 Gy in 10 fractions (16/67, 24%), and central thorax/abdomen (26/67, 39%), respectively. 79% (53/67) of irradiated sites were treated with 3D-conformal technique and palliative dose-fractionation. Grade 3, 4, and 5 toxicities were experienced by 11, 1, and 2 patients, respectively. However all grade 4 and 5 toxicities were outside of the irradiated area and attributed to the NIVO alone, and only 4/11 (36%) of the grade 3 toxicities were attributed to the RT-NIVO. The irradiated site in these cases included the brain [2/10 (20%)] and central thorax/abdomen [2/19 (10.5%)], including one unexpected grade 3 pancreatitides following stereotactic body RT to the left adrenal gland. Conclusions: Concurrent RT-NIVO is generally well tolerated, though with potentially increased rates of severe toxicity when irradiating the lung, abdomen, or brain. Pending more definitive data, we recommend counseling patients on the potentially increased rates of side effects from combined immunotherapy and radiotherapy to these locations. Future prospective trials assessing fractionation and sequencing of RT with IT will help inform combined therapy recommendations.

Keywords: combined immunotherapy and radiation, immunotherapy, Nivolumab, toxicity of concurrent immunotherapy and radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: Omar Romero-Hernandez, Federico Castillo, Armando Sanchez, Sergio Romero, Andrea Romero, Michael Mitchell

Abstract:

Environmental policies for resource conservation in rural areas include subsidies on services and social programs to cover living expenses. Government's expectation is that rural communities who benefit from social programs, such as payment for ecosystem services, are provided with an incentive to conserve natural resources and preserve natural sinks for greenhouse gases. At the same time, global climate change has affected the lives of people worldwide. The capability to adapt to global warming depends on the available resources and the standard of living, putting rural communities at a disadvantage. This paper explores whether rural entrepreneurship can represent a solution to resource conservation and global warming adaptation in rural communities. The research focuses on a sample of two coffee communities in Oaxaca, Mexico. Researchers used geospatial information contained in aerial photographs of the geographical areas of interest. Households were identified in the photos via the roofs of households and georeferenced via coordinates. From the household population, a random selection of roofs was performed and received a visit. A total of 112 surveys were completed, including questions of socio-demographics, perception to climate change and adaptation activities. The population includes two groups of study: entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs. Data was sorted, filtered, and validated. Analysis includes descriptive statistics for exploratory purposes and a multi-regression analysis. Outcomes from the surveys indicate that coffee farmers, who demonstrate entrepreneurship skills and hire employees, are more eager to adapt to climate change despite the extreme adverse socioeconomic conditions of the region. We show that farmers with entrepreneurial tendencies are more creative in using innovative farm practices such as the planting of shade trees, the use of live fencing, instead of wires, and watershed protection techniques, among others. This result counters the notion that small farmers are at the mercy of climate change and have no possibility of being able to adapt to a changing climate. The study also points to roadblocks that farmers face when coping with climate change. Among those roadblocks are a lack of extension services, access to credit, and reliable internet, all of which reduces access to vital information needed in today’s constantly changing world. Results indicate that, under some circumstances, funding and supporting entrepreneurship programs may provide more benefit than traditional social programs.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, global warming, rural communities, climate change adaptation

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Nathaniel Oladimeji Dixon, Adekemi Dorcas Fadun

Abstract:

Educational managers have observed a downward trend in the administrative effectiveness of non-teaching staff in federal universities in South-west Nigeria. This is evident in the low-quality service delivery of administrators and unaccomplished institutional goals and missions of higher education. Scholars have thus indicated the need for the deployment and adoption of a practice that encourages information collection and sharing among stakeholders with a view to improving service delivery and outcomes. This study examined the extent to which knowledge management correlated with the administrative effectiveness of non-teaching staff in federal universities in South-west Nigeria. The study adopted the survey design. Three federal universities (the University of Ibadan, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, and Obafemi Awolowo University) were purposively selected because administrative ineffectiveness was more pronounced among non-teaching staff in government-owned universities, and these federal universities were long established. The proportional and stratified random sampling was adopted to select 1156 non-teaching staff across the three universities along the three existing layers of the non-teaching staff: secretarial (senior=311; junior=224), non-secretarial (senior=147; junior=241) and technicians (senior=130; junior=103). Knowledge Management Practices Questionnaire with four sub-scales: knowledge creation (α=0.72), knowledge utilization (α=0.76), knowledge sharing (α=0.79) and knowledge transfer (α=0.83); and Administrative Effectiveness Questionnaire with four sub-scales: communication (α=0.84), decision implementation (α=0.75), service delivery (α=0.81) and interpersonal relationship (α=0.78) were used for data collection. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson product-moment correlation and multiple regression at 0.05 level of significance, while qualitative data were content analyzed. About 59.8% of the non-teaching staff exhibited a low level of knowledge management. The indices of administrative effectiveness of non-teaching staff were rated as follows: service delivery (82.0%), communication (78.0%), decision implementation (71.0%) and interpersonal relationship (68.0%). Knowledge management had significant relationships with the indices of administrative effectiveness: service delivery (r=0.82), communication (r=0.81), decision implementation (r=0.80) and interpersonal relationship (r=0.47). Knowledge management had a significant joint prediction on administrative effectiveness (F (4;1151)= 0.79, R=0.86), accounting for 73.0% of its variance. Knowledge sharing (β=0.38), knowledge transfer (β=0.26), knowledge utilization (β=0.22), and knowledge creation (β=0.06) had relatively significant contributions to administrative effectiveness. Lack of team spirit and withdrawal syndrome is the major perceived constraints to knowledge management practices among the non-teaching staff. Knowledge management positively influenced the administrative effectiveness of the non-teaching staff in federal universities in South-west Nigeria. There is a need to ensure that the non-teaching staff imbibe team spirit and embrace teamwork with a view to eliminating their withdrawal syndromes. Besides, knowledge management practices should be deployed into the administrative procedures of the university system.

Keywords: knowledge management, administrative effectiveness of non-teaching staff, federal universities in the south-west of nigeria., knowledge creation, knowledge utilization, effective communication, decision implementation

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Rozelle Labuschagne, Ronel Roos

Abstract:

Individuals often experience a reduction in physical function, quality of life and basic activities of daily living after surgery. This is exponentially true for high-risk patients, especially the elderly and frail individuals. Not much is known about the physical function, physical activity preferences and factors associated with the six-minute walk test of elderly individuals who would undergo elective abdominal surgery in South Africa. Such information is important to design effective prehabilitation physiotherapy programs prior to elective surgery. The purpose of the study was to describe the demographic profile and physical function of elderly patients who would undergo elective surgery and to determine factors associated with their six-minute walk test distance findings. A cross-sectional descriptive study in elderly patients older than 60 years of age who would undergo elective abdominal surgery were consecutively sampled at a private hospital in Pretoria, South Africa. Participants’ demographics were collected and physical function assessed with the Functional Comorbidity Index (FCI), DeMorton Mobility Index (DEMMI), Lawton-Brody Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale (IADL) and six-minute walk test (6MWT). Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis with IBM SPSS 25. A p-value ≤ 0.05 were deemed statistically significant. The pilot study consisted of 12 participants (female (n=11, 91.7%), male (n=1, 8.3%) with a mean age of 65.8 (±4.5) years, body mass index of 28 (±4.2) kg.m2 with one (8.3%) participant being a current smoker and four (33.3%) participants having a smoking history. Nine (75%) participants lived independently at home and three (25%) had caregivers. Participants reported walking (n=6, 50%), stretching exercises (n=1, 8.3%), household chores & gardening (n=2, 16.7%), biking/swimming/running (n=1, 8.3%) as physical activity preferences. Physical function findings of the sample were: mean FCI score 3 (±1.1), DEMMI score 81.1 (±14.9), IADL 95 (±17.3), 6MWT 435.50 (IQR 364.75-458.50) with percentage 6MWT distance achieved 81.8% (IQR 64.4%-87.5%). A strong negative correlation was observed between 6MWT distance walked and FCI (r = -0.729, p=0.007). The majority of study participants reported incorporating some form of physical activity into their daily life as form of exercise. Most participants did not achieve their predicted 6MWT distance indicating less than optimal levels of physical function capacity. The number of comorbidities as determined by the FCI was associated with the distance that participants could walk with the 6MWT. The results of this pilot study could be used to indicate which elderly individuals would benefit most from a pre-surgical rehabilitation program. The main goal of such a program would be to improve physical function capacity as measured by the 6MWT. Surgeons could refer patients based on age and number of comorbidities, as determined by the FCI, to potentially improve surgical outcomes.

Keywords: abdominal surgery, elderly, physical function, six-minute walk test

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Ning Chang, Zelong Yuan, Yunpeng Wang, Jianchun Wang

Abstract:

Large eddy simulation (LES) has been extensively used in the investigation of turbulence. LES calculates the grid-resolved large-scale motions and leaves small scales modeled by sublfilterscale (SFS) models. Among the existing SFS models, the deconvolution model has been used successfully in the LES of the engineering flows and geophysical flows. Despite the wide application of deconvolution models, the effects of subfilter scale dynamics and filter anisotropy on the accuracy of SFS modeling have not been investigated in depth. The results of LES are highly sensitive to the selection of filters and the anisotropy of the grid, which has been overlooked in previous research. In the current study, two critical aspects of LES are investigated. Firstly, we analyze the influence of sub-filter scale (SFS) dynamics on the accuracy of direct deconvolution models (DDM) at varying filter-to-grid ratios (FGR) in isotropic turbulence. An array of invertible filters are employed, encompassing Gaussian, Helmholtz I and II, Butterworth, Chebyshev I and II, Cauchy, Pao, and rapidly decaying filters. The significance of FGR becomes evident, as it acts as a pivotal factor in error control for precise SFS stress prediction. When FGR is set to 1, the DDM models cannot accurately reconstruct the SFS stress due to the insufficient resolution of SFS dynamics. Notably, prediction capabilities are enhanced at an FGR of 2, resulting in accurate SFS stress reconstruction, except for cases involving Helmholtz I and II filters. A remarkable precision close to 100% is achieved at an FGR of 4 for all DDM models. Additionally, the further exploration extends to the filter anisotropy to address its impact on the SFS dynamics and LES accuracy. By employing dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM), dynamic mixed model (DMM), and direct deconvolution model (DDM) with the anisotropic filter, aspect ratios (AR) ranging from 1 to 16 in LES filters are evaluated. The findings highlight the DDM's proficiency in accurately predicting SFS stresses under highly anisotropic filtering conditions. High correlation coefficients exceeding 90% are observed in the a priori study for the DDM's reconstructed SFS stresses, surpassing those of the DSM and DMM models. However, these correlations tend to decrease as lter anisotropy increases. In the a posteriori studies, the DDM model consistently outperforms the DSM and DMM models across various turbulence statistics, encompassing velocity spectra, probability density functions related to vorticity, SFS energy flux, velocity increments, strain-rate tensors, and SFS stress. It is observed that as filter anisotropy intensify, the results of DSM and DMM become worse, while the DDM continues to deliver satisfactory results across all filter-anisotropy scenarios. The findings emphasize the DDM framework's potential as a valuable tool for advancing the development of sophisticated SFS models for LES of turbulence.

Keywords: deconvolution model, large eddy simulation, subfilter scale modeling, turbulence

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Aaron Akinloye

Abstract:

this research focuses on the impact of jungle justice on the emotional health challenges experienced by residents in the Lagos metropolitan city in Nigeria. Jungle justice refers to the practice of individuals taking the law into their own hands and administering punishment without proper legal procedures. The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of jungle justice on the emotional challenges faced by residents in Lagos. The specific objectives of the study are to examine the effects of jungle justice on trauma, pressure, fear, and depression among residents. The study adopts a descriptive survey research design and uses a questionnaire as the research instrument. The population of the study consisted of residents in the three senatorial districts that make up Lagos State. A simple random sampling technique was used to select two Local Government Areas (Yaba and Shomolu) from each of the three senatorial districts of Lagos State. Also, a simple random sampling technique was used to select fifty (50) residents from each of the chosen Local Government Areas to make three hundred (300) residents that formed the sample of the study. Accidental sampling technique is employed to select a sample of 300 residents. Data on the variables of interest is collected using a self-developed questionnaire. The research instrument undergoes validation through face, content, and construct validation processes. The reliability coefficient of the instrument is found to be 0.84. The study reveals that jungle justice significantly influences trauma, pressure, fear, and depression among residents in Lagos metropolitan city. The statistical analysis shows significant relationships between jungle justice and these emotional health challenges (df (298) t= 2.33, p< 0.05; df (298) t= 2.16, p< 0.05; df (298) t= 2.20, p< 0.05; df (298) t= 2.14, p< 0.05). This study contributes to the literature by highlighting the negative effects of jungle justice on the emotional well-being of residents. It emphasizes the importance of addressing this issue and implementing measures to prevent such vigilante actions. Data is collected through the administration of the self-developed questionnaire to the selected residents. The collected data is then analyzed using inferential statistics, specifically mean analysis, to examine the relationships between jungle justice and the emotional health challenges experienced by the residents. The main question addressed in this study is how jungle justice affects the emotional health challenges faced by residents in Lagos metropolitan city. Conclusion: The study concludes that jungle justice has a significant influence on trauma, pressure, fear, and depression among residents. To address this issue, recommendations are made, including the implementation of comprehensive awareness campaigns, improvement of law enforcement agencies, development of support systems for victims, and revision of the legal framework to effectively address jungle justice. Overall, this research contributes to the understanding of the consequences of jungle justice and provides recommendations for intervention to protect the emotional well-being of residents in Lagos metropolitan city.

Keywords: jungle justice, emotional health, depression, anger

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Tamas Dani

Abstract:

The author’s research explores the geo-economical role and importance of some small and medium sized states, reviews their adaption strategies in foreign trade and also in foreign affairs in the course of changing into a multipolar world, uses international background. With these, the paper analyses the recent years and the future of ‘Opening towards Eastern foreign economic policies’ from East-Central Europe and parallel with that the ‘Western foreign economy policies’ from Asia, as the Chinese One Belt One Road new silk route plans (so far its huge part is an infrastructural development plan to reach international trade and investment aims). It can be today’s question whether these ideas will reshape the global trade or not. How does the new silk road initiatives and the Eurasian Union reflect the effect of globalization? It is worth to analyse that how did Central and Eastern European countries open to Asia; why does China have the focus of the opening policies in many countries and why could China be seen as the ‘winner’ of the world economic crisis after 2008. The research is based on the following methodologies: national and international literature, policy documents and related design documents, complemented by processing of international databases, statistics and live interviews with leaders from East-Central European countries’ companies and public administration, diplomats and international traders. The results also illustrated by mapping and graphs. The research will find out as major findings whether the state decision-makers have enough margin for manoeuvres to strengthen foreign economic relations. This work has a hypothesis that countries in East-Central Europe have real chance to diversify their relations in foreign trade, focus beyond their traditional partners. This essay focuses on the opportunities of East-Central-European countries in diversification of foreign trade relations towards China and Russia in terms of ‘Eastern Openings’. The effects of the new silk road initiatives and the Eurasian Union to Hungary’s economy with a comparing outlook on East-Central European countries and exploring common regional cooperation opportunities in this area. The essay concentrate on the changing trade relations between East-Central-Europe and China as well as Russia, try to analyse the effects of the new silk road initiatives and the Eurasian Union also. In the conclusion part, it shows how the cooperation is necessary for the East-Central European countries if they want to have a non-asymmetric trade with Russia, China or some Chinese regions (Pearl River Delta, Hainan, …). The form of the cooperation for the East-Central European nations can be Visegrad 4 Cooperation (V4), Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC16), 3 SEAS Cooperation (or BABS – Baltic, Adriatic, Black Seas Initiative).

Keywords: China, East-Central Europe, foreign trade relations, geoeconomics, geopolitics, Russia

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Amornchai Challcharoenwattana, Chanathip Pharino

Abstract:

Rising amount of MSW every day, maximizing material diversions from landfills via recycling is a prefer method to land dumping. Characteristic of Thai MSW is classified as 40 -60 per cent compostable wastes while potentially recyclable materials in waste streams are composed of plastics, papers, glasses, and metals. However, rate of material recovery from MSW, excluding composting or biogas generation, in Thailand is still low. Thailand’s recycling rate in 2010 was only 20.5 per cent. Central government as well as local governments in Thailand have tried to curb this problem by charging some of MSW management fees at the users. However, the fee is often too low to promote MSW minimization. The objective of this paper is to identify levels of willingness-to-pay (WTP) for MSW recycling in different social structures with expected outcome of sustainable MSW managements for different town settlements to maximize MSW recycling pertaining to each town’s potential. The method of eliciting WTP is a payment card. The questionnaire was deployed using online survey during December 2012. Responses were categorized into respondents living in Bangkok, living in other municipality areas, or outside municipality area. The responses were analysed using descriptive statistics, and multiple linear regression analysis to identify relationships and factors that could influence high or low WTP. During the survey period, there were 168 filled questionnaires from total 689 visits. However, only 96 questionnaires could be usable. Among respondents in the usable questionnaires, 36 respondents lived in within the boundary of Bangkok Metropolitan Administration while 45 respondents lived in the chartered areas that were classified as other municipality but not in BMA. Most of respondents were well-off as 75 respondents reported positive monthly cash flow (77.32%), 15 respondents reported neutral monthly cash flow (15.46%) while 7 respondent reported negative monthly cash flow (7.22%). For WTP data including WTP of 0 baht with valid responses, ranking from the highest means of WTP to the lowest WTP of respondents by geographical locations for good MSW management were Bangkok (196 baht/month), municipalities (154 baht/month), and non-urbanized towns (111 baht/month). In-depth analysis was conducted to analyse whether there are additional room for further increase of MSW management fees from the current payment that each correspondent is currently paying. The result from multiple-regression analysis suggested that the following factors could impacts the increase or decrease of WTP: incomes, age, and gender. Overall, the outcome of this study suggests that survey respondents are likely to support improvement of MSW treatments that are not solely relying on landfilling technique. Recommendations for further studies are to obtain larger sample sizes in order to improve statistical powers and to provide better accuracy of WTP study.

Keywords: MSW, willingness to pay, payment card, waste seperation

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Thao Nguyen, Maximiliano Hyon, Sany Rajagukguk, Anna Melkonyan

Abstract:

Introduction: Type 2 Diabetes is a well-established risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Uncontrolled hyperglycemia in patients with established or newly diagnosed diabetes is associated with poor outcomes, including increased mortality and hospital length of stay. Objectives: Our study aims to compare three different glycemic management strategies and their association with clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized for moderate to severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Identifying optimal glycemic management strategies will improve the quality of patient care and improve their outcomes. Method: This is a retrospective observational study on patients hospitalized at Adventist Health White Memorial with severe SARS-CoV-2 infection from 11/1/2020 to 02/28/2021. The following inclusion criteria were used: positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test, age >18 yrs old, diabetes or random glucose >200 mg/dL on admission, oxygen requirement >4L/min, and treatment with glucocorticoids. Our exclusion criteria included: ICU admission within 24 hours, discharge within five days, death within five days, and pregnancy. The patients were divided into three glycemic management groups: Group 1, managed solely by the Primary Team, Group 2, by Pharmacy; and Group 3, by Endocrinologist. Primary outcomes were average glucose on Day 5, change in glucose between Days 3 and 5, and average insulin dose on Day 5 among groups. Secondary outcomes would be upgraded to ICU, inpatient mortality, and hospital length of stay. For statistics, we used IBM® SPSS, version 28, 2022. Results: Most studied patients were Hispanic, older than 60, and obese (BMI >30). It was the first CV-19 surge with the Delta variant in an unvaccinated population. Mortality was markedly high (> 40%) with longer LOS (> 13 days) and a high ICU transfer rate (18%). Most patients had markedly elevated inflammatory markers (CRP, Ferritin, and D-Dimer). These, in combination with glucocorticoids, resulted in severe hyperglycemia that was difficult to control. Average glucose on Day 5 was not significantly different between groups primary vs. pharmacy vs. endocrine (220.5 ± 63.4 vs. 240.9 ± 71.1 vs. 208.6 ± 61.7 ; P = 0.105). Change in glucose from days 3 to 5 was not significantly different between groups but trended towards favoring the endocrinologist group (-26.6±73.6 vs. 3.8±69.5 vs. -32.2±84.1; P= 0.052). TDD insulin was not significantly different between groups but trended towards higher TDD for the endocrinologist group (34.6 ± 26.1 vs. 35.2 ± 26.4 vs. 50.5 ± 50.9; P=0.054). The endocrinologist group used significantly more preprandial insulin compared to other groups (91.7% vs. 39.1% vs. 65.9% ; P < 0.001). The pharmacy used more basal insulin than other groups (95.1% vs. 79.5% vs. 79.2; P = 0.047). There were no differences among groups in the clinical outcomes: LOS, ICU upgrade, or mortality. Multivariate regression analysis controlled for age, sex, BMI, HbA1c level, renal function, liver function, CRP, d-dimer, and ferritin showed no difference in outcomes among groups. Conclusion: Given high-risk factors in our population, despite efforts from the glycemic management teams, it’s unsurprising no differences in clinical outcomes in mortality and length of stay.

Keywords: glycemic management, strategies, hospitalized, SARS-CoV-2, outcomes

Procedia PDF Downloads 449

Authors: Luisa Windhagen, Atsumi Hirose, Alex Bottle

Abstract:

Global urbanization has resulted in the expansion of slums, leaving over 10 million Tanzanians in urban poverty and at risk of poor health. Whilst rural residence has historically been associated with an increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, recent studies found higher perinatal mortality rates in urban Tanzania. This study aims to understand to what extent slum neighborhoods may account for the spatial disparities seen in Tanzania. We generated a slum indicator based on UN-HABITAT criteria to identify slum clusters within the 2015-2016 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey. Descriptive statistics, disaggregated by urban slum, urban non-slum, and rural areas, were produced. Simple and multivariable logistic regression examined the association between cluster residence type and neonatal mortality and stillbirth. For neonatal mortality, we additionally built a multilevel logistic regression model, adjusting for confounding and clustering. The neonatal mortality ratio was highest in slums (38.3 deaths per 1000 live births); the stillbirth rate was three times higher in slums (32.4 deaths per 1000 births) than in urban non-slums. Neonatal death was more likely to occur in slums than in urban non-slums (aOR=2.15, 95% CI=1.02-4.56) and rural areas (aOR=1.78, 95% CI=1.15-2.77). Odds of stillbirth were over five times higher among rural than urban non-slum residents (aOR=5.25, 95% CI=1.31-20.96). The results suggest that slums contribute to the urban disadvantage in Tanzanian neonatal health. Higher neonatal mortality in slums may be attributable to lack of education, lower socioeconomic status, poor healthcare access, and environmental factors, including indoor and outdoor air pollution and unsanitary conditions from inadequate housing. However, further research is required to ascertain specific causalities as well as significant associations between residence type and other pregnancy outcomes. The high neonatal mortality, stillbirth, and slum formation rates in Tanzania signify that considerable change is necessary to achieve international goals for health and human settlements. Disparities in access to adequate housing, safe water and sanitation, high standard antenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal care, and maternal education need to urgently be addressed. This study highlights the spatial neonatal mortality shift from rural settings to urban informal settlements in Tanzania. Importantly, other low- and middle-income countries experiencing overwhelming urbanization and slum expansion may also be at risk of a reversing trend in residential neonatal health differences.

Keywords: urban health, slum residence, neonatal mortality, stillbirth, global urbanisation

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Samuel N. Forjuoh, Marcia G. Ory, Jaewoong Won, Samuel D. Towne, Suojin Wang, Chanam Lee

Abstract:

The public health burden of obesity is well established as is the influence of physical activity (PA) on the health and wellness of individuals who are obese. This study examined the influence of selected demographic, health, and socioenvironmental factors on the walking behaviors of middle-aged and older overweight and obese adults. Online and paper surveys were administered to community-dwelling overweight and obese adults aged ≥ 50 years residing in four cities in central Texas and seen by a family physician in the primary care clinic from October 2013 to June 2014. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize participants’ anthropometric and demographic data as well as their health conditions and walking, socioenvironmental, and more broadly defined PA behaviors. Then Pearson chi-square tests were used to assess differences between participants who reported walking the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose in a typical week as a proxy to meeting the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s PA guidelines and those who did not. Finally, logistic regression was used to predict walking the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose, controlling for covariates. The analysis was conducted in 2016. Of the total sample (n=253, survey response rate of 6.8%), the majority were non-Hispanic white (81.7%), married (74.5%), male (53.5%), and reported an annual household income of ≥ $50,000 (65.7%). Approximately, half were employed (49.6%), or had at least a college degree (51.8%). Slightly more than 1 in 5 (n=57, 22.5%) reported walking the recommended ≥150 minutes for any purpose in a typical week. The strongest predictors of walking the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose in a typical week in adjusted analysis were related to education and a high favorable perception of the neighborhood environment. Compared to those with a high school diploma or some college, participants with at least a college degree were five times as likely to walk the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose (OR=5.55, 95% CI=1.79-17.25). Walking the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose was significantly associated with participants who disagreed that there were many distracted drivers (e.g., on the cell phone while driving) in their neighborhood (OR=4.08, 95% CI=1.47-11.36) and those who agreed that there are sidewalks or protected walkways (e.g., walking trails) in their neighborhood (OR=3.55, 95% CI=1.10-11.49). Those employed were less likely to walk the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose compared to those unemployed (OR=0.31, 95% CI=0.11-0.85) as were those who reported some difficulty walking for a quarter of a mile (OR=0.19, 95% CI=0.05-0.77). Other socio-environmental factors such as having care-giver responsibilities for elders, someone to walk with, or a dog in the household as well as Walk Score™ were not significantly associated with walking the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose in a typical week. Neighborhood perception appears to be an important factor associated with the walking behaviors of middle-aged and older overweight and obese individuals. Enhancing the neighborhood environment (e.g., providing walking trails) may promote walking among these individuals.

Keywords: determinants of walking, obesity, older adults, physical activity

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Diane Ghanem, Oscar Covarrubias, Michael Raad, Dawn LaPorte, Babar Shafiq

Abstract:

Introduction: Standardized exams have long been considered a cornerstone in measuring cognitive competency and academic achievement. Their fixed nature and predetermined scoring methods offer a consistent yardstick for gauging intellectual acumen across diverse demographics. Consequently, the performance of artificial intelligence (AI) in this context presents a rich, yet unexplored terrain for quantifying AI's understanding of complex cognitive tasks and simulating human-like problem-solving skills. Publicly available AI language models such as ChatGPT have demonstrated utility in text generation and even problem-solving when provided with clear instructions. Amidst this transformative shift, the aim of this study is to assess ChatGPT’s performance on the orthopaedic surgery in-training examination (OITE). Methods: All 213 OITE 2021 web-based questions were retrieved from the AAOS-ResStudy website. Two independent reviewers copied and pasted the questions and response options into ChatGPT Plus (version 4.0) and recorded the generated answers. All media-containing questions were flagged and carefully examined. Twelve OITE media-containing questions that relied purely on images (clinical pictures, radiographs, MRIs, CT scans) and could not be rationalized from the clinical presentation were excluded. Cohen’s Kappa coefficient was used to examine the agreement of ChatGPT-generated responses between reviewers. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the performance (% correct) of ChatGPT Plus. The 2021 norm table was used to compare ChatGPT Plus’ performance on the OITE to national orthopaedic surgery residents in that same year. Results: A total of 201 were evaluated by ChatGPT Plus. Excellent agreement was observed between raters for the 201 ChatGPT-generated responses, with a Cohen’s Kappa coefficient of 0.947. 45.8% (92/201) were media-containing questions. ChatGPT had an average overall score of 61.2% (123/201). Its score was 64.2% (70/109) on non-media questions. When compared to the performance of all national orthopaedic surgery residents in 2021, ChatGPT Plus performed at the level of an average PGY3. Discussion: ChatGPT Plus is able to pass the OITE with a satisfactory overall score of 61.2%, ranking at the level of third-year orthopaedic surgery residents. More importantly, it provided logical reasoning and justifications that may help residents grasp evidence-based information and improve their understanding of OITE cases and general orthopaedic principles. With further improvements, AI language models, such as ChatGPT, may become valuable interactive learning tools in resident education, although further studies are still needed to examine their efficacy and impact on long-term learning and OITE/ABOS performance.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ChatGPT, orthopaedic in-training examination, OITE, orthopedic surgery, standardized testing

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Liudmila Shabalinskaya, Victor Golovanov, Liudmila Milinis, Sergey Loponos, Alexander Maslov, D. O. Frolov

Abstract:

The work is devoted to the rapid laboratory diagnosis of the condition of aircraft friction units, based on the application of the nondestructive testing method by analyzing the parameters of wear particles, or tribodiagnostics. The most important task of tribodiagnostics is to develop recommendations for the selection of more advanced designs, materials and lubricants based on data on wear processes for increasing the life and ensuring the safety of the operation of machines and mechanisms. The object of tribodiagnostics in this work are the tooth gears of the central drive and the gearboxes of the gas turbine engine of the civil aviation PS-90A type, in which rolling friction and sliding friction with slip occur. The main criterion for evaluating the technical state of lubricated friction units of a gas turbine engine is the intensity and rate of wear of the friction surfaces of the friction unit parts. When the engine is running, oil samples are taken and the state of the friction surfaces is evaluated according to the parameters of the wear particles contained in the oil sample, which carry important and detailed information about the wear processes in the engine transmission units. The parameters carrying this information include the concentration of wear particles and metals in the oil, the dispersion composition, the shape, the size ratio and the number of particles, the state of their surfaces, the presence in the oil of various mechanical impurities of non-metallic origin. Such a morphological analysis of wear particles has been introduced into the order of monitoring the status and diagnostics of various aircraft engines, including a gas turbine engine, since the type of wear characteristic of the central drive and the drive box is surface fatigue wear and the beginning of its development, accompanied by the formation of microcracks, leads to the formation of spherical, up to 10 μm in size, and in the aftermath of flocculent particles measuring 20-200 μm in size. Tribodiagnostics using the morphological analysis of wear particles includes the following techniques: ferrography, filtering, and computer analysis of the classification and counting of wear particles. Based on the analysis of several series of oil samples taken from the drive box of the engine during their operating time, a study was carried out of the processes of wear kinetics. Based on the results of the study and comparing the series of criteria for tribodiagnostics, wear state ratings and statistics of the results of morphological analysis, norms for the normal operating regime were developed. The study allowed to develop levels of wear state for friction surfaces of gearing and a 10-point rating system for estimating the likelihood of the occurrence of an increased wear mode and, accordingly, prevention of engine failures in flight.

Keywords: aviation, box of drives, morphological analysis, tribodiagnostics, tribology, ferrography, filtering, wear particle

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Anselm Ego Onyimonyi, Maduako Johnpaul O.

Abstract:

The study was designed to investigate into the socio-ecological impact of migration of Fulani herders in Anambra state of Nigeria, through a climate justice lens. Nigeria is one of the world’s most densely populated countries with a population of over 284 million people, half of which are considered to be in abject poverty. There is no doubt that livestock production provides sustainable contributions to food security and poverty reduction to Nigeria economy, but not without some environmental implications like any other economic activities. Nigeria is recognized as being vulnerable to climate change. Climate change and global warming if left unchecked will cause adverse effects on livelihoods in Nigeria, such as livestock production, crop production, fisheries, forestry and post-harvest activities, because the rainfall regimes and patterns will be altered, floods which devastate farmlands would occur, increase in temperature and humidity which increases pest and disease would occur and other natural disasters like desertification, drought, floods, ocean and storm surges, which not only damage Nigerians’ livelihood but also cause harm to life and property, would occur. This and other climatic issue as it affects Fulani herdsmen was what this study investigated. In carrying out this research, a survey research design was adopted. A simple sampling technique was used. One local government area (LGA) was selected purposively from each of the four agricultural zone in the state based on its predominance of Fulani herders. For appropriate sampling, 25 respondents from each of the four Agricultural zones in the state were randomly selected making up the 100 respondent being sampled. Primary data were generated by using a set of structured 5-likert scale questionnaire. Data generated were analyzed using SPSS and the result presented using descriptive statistics. From the data analyzed, the study indentified; Unpredicted rainfall (mean = 3.56), Forest fire (mean = 4.63), Drying Water Source (mean = 3.99), Dwindling Grazing (mean 4.43), Desertification (mean = 4.44), Fertile land scarcity (mean = 3.42) as major factor predisposing Fulani herders to migrate southward while rejecting Natural inclination to migrate (mean = 2.38) and migration to cause trouble as a factor. On the reason why Fulani herders are trying to establish a permanent camp in Anambra state; Moderate temperature (mean= 3.60), Avoiding overgrazing (4.42), Search for fodder and water (mean = 4.81) and (mean = 4.70) respectively, Need for market (4.28), Favorable environment (mean = 3.99) and Access to fertile land (3.96) were identified. It was concluded that changing climatic variables necessitated the migration of herders from Northern Nigeria to areas in the South were the variables are most favorable to the herders and their animals.

Keywords: socio-ecological, migration, fulani, climate, justice, lens

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: Agâh Tuğrul Korucu, Ismail Fatih Yavuzaslan, Lale Toraman

Abstract:

Nowadays, thanks to development of technology, integration of technology into teaching and learning activities is spreading. Increasing technological literacy which is one of the expected competencies for individuals of 21st century is associated with the effective use of technology in education. The most important factor in effective use of technology in education institutions is ICT teachers. The concept of computer assisted instruction (CAI) refers to the utilization of information and communication technology as a tool aided teachers in order to make education more efficient and improve its quality in the process of educational. Teachers can use computers in different places and times according to owned hardware and software facilities and characteristics of the subject and student in CAI. Analyzing teachers’ use of computers in education is significant because teachers are the ones who manage the course and they are the most important element in comprehending the topic by students. To accomplish computer-assisted instruction efficiently is possible through having positive attitude of teachers. Determination the level of knowledge, attitude and behavior of teachers who get the professional knowledge from educational faculties and elimination of deficiencies if any are crucial when teachers are at the faculty. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to identify ICT teachers' attitudes toward computer-assisted instruction in terms of different variables. Research group consists of 200 prospective ICT teachers studying at Necmettin Erbakan University Ahmet Keleşoğlu Faculty of Education CEIT department. As data collection tool of the study; “personal information form” developed by the researchers and used to collect demographic data and "the attitude scale related to computer-assisted instruction" are used. The scale consists of 20 items. 10 of these items show positive feature, while 10 of them show negative feature. The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) coefficient of the scale is found 0.88 and Barlett test significance value is found 0.000. The Cronbach’s alpha reliability coefficient of the scale is found 0.93. In order to analyze the data collected by data collection tools computer-based statistical software package used; statistical techniques such as descriptive statistics, t-test, and analysis of variance are utilized. It is determined that the attitudes of prospective instructors towards computers do not differ according to their educational branches. On the other hand, the attitudes of prospective instructors who own computers towards computer-supported education are determined higher than those of the prospective instructors who do not own computers. It is established that the departments of students who previously received computer lessons do not affect this situation so much. The result is that; the computer experience affects the attitude point regarding the computer-supported education positively.

Keywords: computer based instruction, teacher candidate, attitude, technology based instruction, information and communication technologies

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Robert Kwame Kpaliba, Dennis Kpakpor Adotey, Yaw Serfor-Armah

Abstract:

Increase in the oceanic carbon dioxide absorbance from the atmosphere due to climate change has led to appreciable change in the chemistry of the oceans. The change in oceanic pH referred to as ocean acidification poses multiple threats and stresses on marine species, biodiversity, goods and services, and livelihoods. Marine ecosystems are continuously threatened by plethora of natural and anthropogenic stressors including carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions causing a lot of changes which has not been experienced for approximately 60 years. Little has been done in Africa as a whole and Ghana in particular to improve the understanding of the variations of the carbonate chemistry of seawater and the biophysical impacts of ocean acidification on security of seafood, nutrition, climate and environmental change. There is, therefore, the need for regular monitoring of carbonate chemistry of seawater along Ghana’s coastline to generate reliable data to aid marine policy formulation. Samples of seawater were collected thrice every month for a one-year period from five study sites for the various parameters to be analyzed. Analysis of the measured physico-chemical and the carbonate chemistry parameters was done using simple statistics. Correlation test and ANOVA were run on both of the physico-chemical and carbonate chemistry parameters. The carbonate chemistry parameters were measured using computer software programme (CO₂cal v4.0.9) except total alkalinity and pH. The study assessed the variability of seawater carbonate chemistry in selected portions of the Central Atlantic Coastline of Ghana (Tsokomey/Bortianor, Kokrobitey, Gomoa Nyanyanor, Gomoa Fetteh, and Senya Breku landing beaches) over a 1-year period (June 2016–May 2017). For physico-chemical parameters, there was insignificant variation in nitrate (NO₃⁻) (1.62 - 2.3 mg/L), ammonia (NH₃) (1.52 - 2.05 mg/L), and salinity (sal) (34.50 - 34.74 ppt). Carbonate chemistry parameters for all the five study sites showed significant variation: partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO₂) (414.08-715.5 µmol/kg), carbonate ion (CO₃²⁻) (115-157.92 µmol/kg), pH (7.9-8.12), total alkalinity (TA) (1711.8-1986 µmol/kg), total carbon dioxide (TCO₂) (1512.1 - 1792 µmol/kg), dissolved carbon dioxide (CO₂aq) (10.97-18.92 µmol/kg), Revelle Factor (RF) (9.62-11.84), aragonite (ΩAr) (0.75-1.48) and calcite (ΩCa) (1.08-2.14). The study revealed that the partial pressure of carbon dioxide and temperature did not have a significant effect on each other (r² = 0.31) (p-value = 0.0717). There was an appreciable effect of pH on dissolved carbon dioxide (r² = 0.921) (p-value = 0.0000). The variation between total alkalinity and dissolved carbon dioxide was appreciable (r² = 0.731) (p-value = 0.0008). There was a significant correlation between total carbon dioxide and dissolved carbon dioxide (r² = 0.852) (p-value = 0.0000). Revelle factor correlated strongly with dissolved carbon dioxide (r² = 0.982) (p-value = 0.0000). Partial pressure of carbon dioxide corresponds strongly with atmospheric carbon dioxide (r² = 0.9999) (p-value = 0.00000).

Keywords: carbonate chemistry, seawater, central atlantic coastline, Ghana, ocean acidification

Procedia PDF Downloads 558

Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

Abstract:

Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 309