Search results for: lower and higher risk category

Authors: Mei-Se Chien, Chien-Chiang Lee, Sin-Jie Cai

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The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of international housing prices when macroeconomic variables change. We apply the Pedroni’s, panel cointegration, using the unbalanced panel data analysis of 33 countries over the period from 1980Q1 to 2013Q1, to examine the relationships among house prices and macroeconomic variables. Our empirical results of panel data cointegration tests support the existence of a cointegration among these macroeconomic variables and house prices. Besides, the empirical results of panel DOLS further present that a 1% increase in economic activity, long-term interest rates, and construction costs cause house prices to respectively change 2.16%, -0.04%, and 0.22% in the long run. Furthermore, the increasing economic activity and the construction cost would cause stronger impacts on the house prices for lower income countries than higher income countries. The results lead to the conclusion that policy of house prices growth can be regarded as economic growth for lower income countries. Finally, in America region, the coefficient of economic activity is the highest, which displays that increasing economic activity causes a faster rise in house prices there than in other regions. There are some special cases whereby the coefficients of interest rates are significantly positive in America and Asia regions.

Keywords: house prices, macroeconomic variables, panel cointegration, dynamic OLS

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Authors: Jin-Hui Lee, Myung-Min Oh

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The application of temporary abiotic stresses before crop harvest is a potential strategy to enhance phytochemical content. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of various UV-A LED lights on the growth and content of bioactive compounds in kale (Brassica oleracea var. acephala). Fourteen-day-old kale seedlings were cultivated in a plant factory with artificial lighting (air temperature of 20℃, relative humidity of 60%, photosynthesis photon flux density (PPFD) of 125 µmol·m⁻²·s⁻¹) for 3 weeks. Kale plants were irradiated by four types of UV-A LEDs (peak wavelength; 365, 375, 385, and 395 nm) with 30 W/m² for 7 days. As a result, image chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) value of kale leaves was lower as the UV-A LEDs peak wavelength was shorter. Fresh and dry weights of shoots and roots of kale plants were significantly higher in the plants under UV-A than the control at 7 days of treatment. In particular, the growth was significantly increased with a longer peak wavelength of the UV-A LEDs. The results of leaf area and specific leaf weight showed a similar pattern with those of growth characteristics. Chlorophyll content was highest in kale leaves subjected to UV-A LEDs with the peak wavelength of 395 nm at 3 days of treatment compared with the control. Total phenolic contents of UV-A LEDs with the peak wavelength of 395 nm at 5 and 6 days of treatment were 44% and 47% higher than those of the control, respectively. Antioxidant capacity showed almost the same pattern as the results of total phenol content. The activity of phenylalanine ammonia-lyase was approximately 11% and 8% higher in the UV-A LEDs with the peak wavelength of 395 nm compared to the control at 5 and 6 days of treatment, respectively. Our results imply that the UV-A LEDs with relative longer peak wavelength were effective to improve growth as well as the content of bioactive compounds of kale plants.

Keywords: bioactive compounds, growth, Kale, UV-A LEDs

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: S. Gvazava, N. Khidasheli, G. Gordeziani, A. DL. Batako

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The work presented in this paper studied the tribological characteristics (wear resistance, friction coefficient) of austempered ductile iron (ADI) with different combinations of structural composition (upper bainite, lower bainite, retained austenite) in dry sliding friction. A range of structural states of the metal matrix was obtained by changing the regimes of isothermal quenching of high-strength cast iron. The tribological tests were carried out using two sets of isothermal quenched cast irons. After austenitization at 900°С for 60 minutes, the specimens from the first group were isothermally quenched at the 300°С temperature and the specimens from the second set – at 400°С. The investigations showed that the isothermal quenching increases the friction coefficient of high-strength cast irons. The friction coefficient was found to be in the range from 0.4 to 0.55 for cast irons, depending on the structures of the metal matrix. The quenched cast irons having lower bainite demonstrate higher wear resistance in dry friction conditions. The dependence of wear resistance on the amount of retained austenite in isothermal quenched cast irons has a nonlinear characteristic and reaches its maximum value when the content of retained austenite is about 15-22%. The boron micro-additives allowed to reduce the friction coefficient of ADI and increase their wear resistance by 1.5-1.7 times.

Keywords: wear resistance, dry sliding, austempering, ADI, friction coefficient, retained austenite, isothermal quenching

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Yang Song, Yifan Guo, Edward F. Gehringer

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Fifty years of research has found great potential for peer assessment as a pedagogical approach. With peer assessment, not only do students receive more copious assessments; they also learn to become assessors. In recent decades, more educational peer assessments have been facilitated by online systems. Those online systems are designed differently to suit different class settings and student groups, but they basically fall into two categories: rating-based and ranking-based. The rating-based systems ask assessors to rate the artifacts one by one following some review rubrics. The ranking-based systems allow assessors to review a set of artifacts and give a rank for each of them. Though there are different systems and a large number of users of each category, there is no comprehensive comparison on which design leads to higher reliability. In this paper, we designed algorithms to evaluate assessors' reliabilities based on their rating/ranking against the global ranks of the artifacts they have reviewed. These algorithms are suitable for data from both rating-based and ranking-based peer assessment systems. The experiments were done based on more than 15,000 peer assessments from multiple peer assessment systems. We found that the assessors in ranking-based peer assessments are at least 10% more reliable than the assessors in rating-based peer assessments. Further analysis also demonstrated that the assessors in ranking-based assessments tend to assess the more differentiable artifacts correctly, but there is no such pattern for rating-based assessors.

Keywords: peer assessment, peer rating, peer ranking, reliability

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Authors: Mestawot Beyene Tafese, Erika Kopp

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Sustainable development, aimed at meeting current needs while safeguarding the needs of future generations, is a global imperative. Higher education stands as a pivotal force in fostering sustainable values and behaviors. However, most scholars and governments primarily focus on environmental and economic aspects. Consequently, this study examines the distribution patterns of higher education for social sustainability. The study highlights overall annual scientific production trends, leading journals and countries in scientific publication, most researched topics, and frequently used keywords. The study utilized a bibliometric method with the aid of the R Studio program. The analysis reveals Sustainability (Switzerland) as the leading journal, with 292 articles published, followed by the International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, which published 186 articles. Additionally, the USA is identified as the leading country, with Spain ranking second in producing research related to higher education for socially sustainable development. Among the 54 African countries, only South Africa ranks 13th, contributing fifty-nine scientific articles. Furthermore, higher education for sustainability, sustainable education, sustainable development goals, etc., emerge as the most researched topics, while the term "higher education" is prevalent in 29% and "sustainability" in 28% of the documents. Notably, according to the analysis, social sustainability is the focus of only 3% of articles. This suggests that academics researching sustainable development and higher education have overlooked social sustainability, a crucial human component of sustainable development. Consequently, the researchers concluded that social academics who are interested in studying sustainable development and higher education should give priority to social sustainability.

Keywords: higher education, bibliometric analysis, social sustainability, sustainable development

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Authors: Beatriz González-rodrigo, Diego Hidalgo-leiva, Omar Flores, Claudia Germoso, Maribel Jiménez-martínez, Laura Navas-sánchez, Belén Orta, Nicola Tarque, Orlando Hernández- Rubio, Miguel Marchamalo, Juan Gregorio Rejas, Belén Benito-oterino

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Cities facing seismic hazard necessitate detailed risk assessments for effective urban planning and vulnerability identification, ensuring the safety and sustainability of urban infrastructure. Comprehensive studies involving seismic hazard, vulnerability, and exposure evaluations are pivotal for estimating potential losses and guiding proactive measures against seismic events. However, broad-scale traditional risk studies limit consideration of specific local threats and identify vulnerable housing within a structural typology. Achieving precise results at neighbourhood levels demands higher resolution seismic hazard exposure, and vulnerability studies. This research aims to bolster sustainability and safety against seismic disasters in three Central American and Caribbean capitals. It integrates geospatial techniques and artificial intelligence into seismic risk studies, proposing cost-effective methods for exposure data collection and damage prediction. The methodology relies on prior seismic threat studies in pilot zones, utilizing existing exposure and vulnerability data in the region. Emphasizing detailed building attributes enables the consideration of behaviour modifiers affecting seismic response. The approach aims to generate detailed risk scenarios, facilitating prioritization of preventive actions pre-, during, and post-seismic events, enhancing decision-making certainty. Detailed risk scenarios necessitate substantial investment in fieldwork, training, research, and methodology development. Regional cooperation becomes crucial given similar seismic threats, urban planning, and construction systems among involved countries. The outcomes hold significance for emergency planning and national and regional construction regulations. The success of this methodology depends on cooperation, investment, and innovative approaches, offering insights and lessons applicable to regions facing moderate seismic threats with vulnerable constructions. Thus, this framework aims to fortify resilience in seismic-prone areas and serves as a reference for global urban planning and disaster management strategies. In conclusion, this research proposes a comprehensive framework for seismic risk assessment in high-risk urban areas, emphasizing detailed studies at finer resolutions for precise vulnerability evaluations. The approach integrates regional cooperation, geospatial technologies, and adaptive fragility curve adjustments to enhance risk assessment accuracy, guiding effective mitigation strategies and emergency management plans.

Keywords: assessment, behaviour modifiers, emergency management, mitigation strategies, resilience, vulnerability

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Authors: Aymen Laadhari, Gábor Székely

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In this work, the hemodynamics in the sinuses of Valsalva after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation is numerically examined. We focus on the physical results in the two-dimensional case. We use a finite element methodology based on a Lagrange multiplier technique that enables to couple the dynamics of blood flow and the leaflets’ movement. A massively parallel implementation of a monolithic and fully implicit solver allows more accuracy and significant computational savings. The elastic properties of the aortic valve are disregarded, and the numerical computations are performed under physiologically correct pressure loads. Computational results depict that blood flow may be subject to stagnation in the lower domain of the sinuses of Valsalva after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

Keywords: hemodynamics, simulations, stagnation, valve

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Authors: Galina Portnova, Kseniya Gladun

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In our EEG experiment participated 27 children with ASD with the average age of 6.13 years and the average score for CARS 32.41 and 25 healthy children (of 6.35 years). Six types of musical stimulation were presented, included Gluck, Javier-Naida, Kenny G, Chopin and other classic musical compositions. Children with autism showed orientation reaction to the music and give behavioral responses to different types of music, some of them might assess stimulation by scales. The participants were instructed to remain calm. Brain electrical activity was recorded using a 19-channel EEG recording device, 'Encephalan' (Russia, Taganrog). EEG epochs lasting 150 s were analyzed using EEGLab plugin for MatLab (Mathwork Inc.). For EEG analysis we used Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), analyzed Peak alpha frequency (PAF), correlation dimension D2 and Stability of rhythms. To express the dynamics of desynchronizing of different rhythms we've calculated the envelope of the EEG signal, using the whole frequency range and a set of small narrowband filters using Hilbert transformation. Our data showed that healthy children showed similar EEG spectral changes during musical stimulation as well as described the feelings induced by musical fragments. The exception was the ‘Chopin. Prelude’ fragment (no.6). This musical fragment induced different subjective feeling, behavioral reactions and EEG spectral changes in children with ASD and healthy children. The correlation dimension D2 was significantly lower in autists compared to healthy children during musical stimulation. Hilbert envelope frequency was reduced in all group of subjects during musical compositions 1,3,5,6 compositions compared to the background. During musical fragments 2 and 4 (terrible) lower Hilbert envelope frequency was observed only in children with ASD and correlated with the severity of the disease. Alfa peak frequency was lower compared to the background during this musical composition in healthy children and conversely higher in children with ASD.

Keywords: electroencephalogram (EEG), emotional perception, ASD, musical perception, childhood Autism rating scale (CARS)

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Authors: Sanari Chalin Moriri, Kwabena Kingsley Ayisi, Alina Mofokeng

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Dryland smallholder farmers in South Africa are vulnerable to all kinds of risks, and it negatively affects crop productivity and profit. Pigeonpea is a leguminous and multipurpose crop that provides food, fodder, and wood for smallholder farmers. The majority of these farmers are still growing pigeonpea from traditional unimproved seeds, which comprise a mixture of genotypes. The objectives of the study were to identify the key risk factors that affect pigeonpea productivity and to develop management strategies on how to alleviate the risk factors in pigeonpea production. The study was conducted in two provinces (Limpopo and Mpumalanga) of South Africa in six municipalities during the 2020/2021 growing seasons. The non-probability sampling method using purposive and snowball sampling techniques were used to collect data from the farmers through a structured questionnaire. A total of 114 pigeonpea producers were interviewed individually using a questionnaire. Key stakeholders in each municipality were also identified, invited, and interviewed to verify the information given by farmers. Data collected were subjected to SPSS statistical software 25 version. The findings of the study were that majority of farmers affected by risk factors were women, subsistence, and old farmers resulted in low food production. Drought, unavailability of improved pigeonpea seeds for planting, access to information, and processing equipment were found to be the main risk factors contributing to low crop productivity in farmer’s fields. Above 80% of farmers lack knowledge on the improvement of the crop and also on the processing techniques to secure high prices during the crop off-season. Market availability, pricing, and incidence of pests and diseases were found to be minor risk factors which were triggered by the major risk factors. The minor risk factors can be corrected only if the major risk factors are first given the necessary attention. About 10% of the farmers found to use the crop as a mulch to reduce soil temperatures and to improve soil fertility. The study revealed that most of the farmers were unaware of its utilisation as fodder, much, medicinal, nitrogen fixation, and many more. The risk of frequent drought in dry areas of South Africa where farmers solely depend on rainfall poses a serious threat to crop productivity. The majority of these risk factors are caused by climate change due to unrealistic, low rainfall with extreme temperatures poses a threat to food security, water, and the environment. The use of drought-tolerant, multipurpose legume crops such as pigeonpea, access to new information, provision of processing equipment, and support from all stakeholders will help in addressing food security for smallholder farmers. Policies should be revisited to address the prevailing risk factors faced by farmers and involve them in addressing the risk factors. Awareness should be prioritized in promoting the crop to improve its production and commercialization in the dryland farming system of South Africa.

Keywords: management strategies, pigeonpea, risk factors, smallholder farmers

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Authors: Asma Qudrat, Abid Ullah, Rafi Ullah, Ali Raza, Shah Zeb, Syed Ali Shan Ul-Haq, Shahkar Ahmed Shah, Attiya Hameed Khan, Saad Zaheer, Umama Qasim, Kiran Jamal, Zahoor khan

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Objectives: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the major public health issue associated with high mortality and morbidity rate worldwide. Young patients with ACS have unique characteristics with different demographic profiles and risk factors. The precise diagnosis and early risk stratification is important in guiding treatment and predicting the prognosis of young patients with ACS. To evaluate the associated demographics, risk factors, and outcomes profile of ACS in young age patients. Methods: The research follow a retrospective design, the single centre study of patients diagnosis with the first event of ACS in young age (>18 and <40) were included. Data collection included demographic profiles, risk factors, and in-hospital outcomes of young ACS patients. The patient’s data was retrieved through Electronic Medical Records (EMR) of Peshawar Institute of Cardiology (PIC), and all characteristic were assessed. Results: In this study, 77% were male, and 23% were female patients. The risk factors were assessed with CAD and shown significant results (P < 0.01). The most common presentation was STEMI, with (45%) most in ACS young patients. The angiographic pattern showed single vessel disease (SVD) in 49%, double vessel disease (DVD) in 17% and triple vessel disease (TVD) was found in 10%, and Left Artery Disease (LAD) (54%) was present to be the most common involved artery. Conclusion: It is concluded that the male sex was predominant in ACS young age patients. SVD was the common coronary angiographic finding. Risk factors showed significant results towards CAD and common presentations.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, Non-ST elevation myocardial infarction, ST elevation myocardial infarction, unstable angina, acute coronary syndrome

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Authors: Kun Huang

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This paper investigates whether the combination of local and stochastic volatility models can be calibrated exactly to any arbitrage-free implied volatility surface of European option. The risk neutral Brownian Bridge density is applied for calibration of the leverage function of our Hybrid model. Furthermore, the tails of marginal risk neutral density are generated by Generalized Extreme Value distribution in order to capture the properties of asset returns. The local volatility is generated from the arbitrage-free implied volatility surface using stochastic volatility inspired parameterization.

Keywords: arbitrage free implied volatility, calibration, extreme value distribution, hybrid model, local volatility, risk-neutral density, stochastic volatility

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Authors: Waleed S. Alwaneen

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In many countries, cow dung is used as farm manure and for biogas production. Several bacterial strains associated with cow dung such as Campylobacter, Salmonella sp. and Escherichia coli cause serious human diseases. The objective of the present study was to investigate the use of insect larvae including fruit beetle, waxworms and tiger worms to improve the breakdown of agricultural wastes and reduce their pathogen loads. Fresh cow faeces were collected from a cattle farm and distributed into plastic boxes (100 g/box). Each box was provided with 10 larvae of fruit beetle, Waxworms and Tiger worms, respectively. There were 3 replicates in each treatment including the control. Bacteria were isolated weekly from both control and cow faeces to which larvae were added to determine the bacterial populations. Results revealed that the bacterial load was higher in the cow faeces treated with fruit beetles than in the control, while the bacterial load was lower in the cow faeces treated with waxworms and tiger worms than in the control. The activities of the fruit beetle larvae led to the cow faeces being liquefied which provided a more conducive growing media for bacteria. Therefore, higher bacterial load in the cow faeces treated with fruit beetle might be attributed to the liquefaction of cow faeces.

Keywords: fruit beetle, waxworms, tiger worms, waste conditioning, composting

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Authors: Tsung Chin Wu, Yu Chen Tsai, Rhay Hung Weng, Weir Sen Lin

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In recent years, nursing staff’s lower job satisfaction has led to higher turnover rates, and high turnover rates not only cause medical institution costs to increase but also the quality of medical care to decrease. From the perspective of internal marketing, institution staffs are internal customers, and institutions should focus and meet the needs of staff, so that staff will strive to meet the needs of external customers and provide them with the required care. However, few previous studies have investigated the impact of internal staff satisfaction on external customers. Therefore, this study aimed to conduct job satisfaction surveys on internal staff to investigate the relationship between job satisfaction and quality of medical care through statistical analysis of the study results. The related study results may serve as a reference for healthcare managers. This study was conducted using a questionnaire and the subjects were nursing staff from four hospitals. A total of 600 questionnaires were distributed and 577 valid questionnaires were returned with a response rate of 96.1%. After collecting the data, the reliability and validity of the study variables were confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis. The impact of internal marketing and job satisfaction on turnover intention of nursing staff was analyzed using descriptive analysis, one-way ANOVA, Pearson correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis. The study results showed that there was a significant difference between nursing staff’s job title and ‘professional participation’ and ‘shifts’. There was a significant difference between salary and ‘shifts’ and ‘turnover intention’, as well as between marriage and ‘remuneration’ and ‘turnover intention’. A significant difference was found between professional advancement and ‘professional growth’ and ‘type of leave’, as well as between division of service and ‘shifts’ and ‘turnover intention’. Pearson correlation analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between turnover intention and ‘internal marketing’, ‘interaction’, ‘professional participation’, ‘grasp of environment’, ‘remuneration’ and ‘shifts’, meaning that the higher the satisfaction, the lower the turnover intention. It is recommended that hospitals establish a comprehensive internal marketing mechanism to enhance staff satisfaction and in turn, reduce intention to resign, and the key to increasing job satisfaction is by establishing effective methods of internal communication.

Keywords: internal marketing, job satisfaction, turnover intention, nursing staff

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Authors: Wade Ghribi, Abdelmoty M. Ahmed, Ahmed Said Badawy, Belgacem Bouallegue

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In higher education institutions, the most pressing priority is to improve student performance and retention. Large volumes of student data are used in Educational Data Mining techniques to find new hidden information from students' learning behavior, particularly to uncover the early symptom of at-risk pupils. On the other hand, data with noise, outliers, and irrelevant information may provide incorrect conclusions. By identifying features of students' data that have the potential to improve performance prediction results, comparing and identifying the most appropriate ensemble learning technique after preprocessing the data, and optimizing the hyperparameters, this paper aims to develop a reliable students' performance prediction model for Higher Education Institutions. Data was gathered from two different systems: a student information system and an e-learning system for undergraduate students in the College of Computer Science of a Saudi Arabian State University. The cases of 4413 students were used in this article. The process includes data collection, data integration, data preprocessing (such as cleaning, normalization, and transformation), feature selection, pattern extraction, and, finally, model optimization and assessment. Random Forest, Bagging, Stacking, Majority Vote, and two types of Boosting techniques, AdaBoost and XGBoost, are ensemble learning approaches, whereas Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network are supervised learning techniques. Hyperparameters for ensemble learning systems will be fine-tuned to provide enhanced performance and optimal output. The findings imply that combining features of students' behavior from e-learning and students' information systems using Majority Vote produced better outcomes than the other ensemble techniques.

Keywords: educational data mining, student performance prediction, e-learning, classification, ensemble learning, higher education

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Authors: Natalia Pacheco Rego

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The Liezation functor is a map from the category of Leibniz algebras to the category of Lie algebras, which assigns a Leibniz algebra to the Lie algebra given by the quotient of the Leibniz algebra by the ideal spanned by the square elements of the Leibniz algebra. This functor is left adjoint to the inclusion functor that considers a Lie algebra as a Leibniz algebra. This environment fits in the framework of central extensions and commutators in semi-abelian categories with respect to a Birkhoff subcategory, where classical or absolute notions are relative to the abelianization functor. Classical properties of Leibniz algebras (properties relative to the abelianization functor) were adapted to the relative setting (with respect to the Liezation functor); in general, absolute properties have the corresponding relative ones, but not all absolute properties immediately hold in the relative case, so new requirements are needed. Following this line of research, it was conducted an analysis of central derivations of Leibniz algebras relative to the Liezation functor, called as Lie-derivations, and a characterization of Lie-stem Leibniz algebras by their Lie-central derivations was obtained. In this paper, we present an overview of these results, and we analyze some new properties concerning Lie-central derivations and almost inner Lie-derivations. Namely, a Leibniz algebra is a vector space equipped with a bilinear bracket operation satisfying the Leibniz identity. We define the Lie-bracket by [x, y]lie = [x, y] + [y, x] , for all x, y . The Lie-center of a Leibniz algebra is the two-sided ideal of elements that annihilate all the elements in the Leibniz algebra through the Lie-bracket. A Lie-derivation is a linear map which acts as a derivative with respect to the Lie-bracket. Obviously, usual derivations are Lie-derivations, but the converse is not true in general. A Lie-derivation is called a Lie-central derivation if its image is contained in the Lie-center. A Lie-derivation is called an almost inner Lie-derivation if the image of an element x is contained in the Lie-commutator of x and the Leibniz algebra. The main results we present in this talk refer to the conditions under which Lie-central derivation and almost inner Lie-derivations coincide.

Keywords: almost inner Lie-derivation, Lie-center, Lie-central derivation, Lie-derivation

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Authors: Szilvia Vincze, Zoltán Bács

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It has become increasingly important for institutions of higher education as well to use available resources as effectively as possible for the implementation of the institution’s strategic plans and, at the same time, to ensure a stable future. This is the responsibility of the management and administration of the institution. Having access to complete and comprehensive information is indispensable for making dynamic and well-founded decisions that consider the realization of objectives to be primary and that manage possibly emerging risks, etc. The present paper introduces the role of Management Information Systems (MIS) at the University of Debrecen, one of the largest institutions of higher education in Hungary, and also discusses the utilization of this and associated information systems in management functions.

Keywords: management information system (MIS), higher education, Hungary, strategy formulation

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Authors: Natalia M. Acevedo, Luis M. Jimenez, Erick Lambis

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Imperfections in the capital market are used to argue the relevance of the corporate risk management function. With corporate hedge, the value of the company is increased by reducing the volatility of the expected cash flow and making it possible to face a lower bankruptcy costs and financial difficulties, without sacrificing tax advantages for debt financing. With the propose to avoid exchange rate troubles over cash flows of Colombian exporting firms, this dissertation uses financial options, over exchange rate between Peso and Dollar, for realizing a financial hedge. In this study, a strategy of hedge is designed for an exporting company in Colombia with the objective of preventing fluctuations because, if the exchange rate down, the number of Colombian pesos that obtains the company by exports, is less than agreed. The exchange rate of Colombia is measured by the TRM (Representative Market Rate), representing the number of Colombian pesos for an American dollar. First, the TMR is modelled through the Geometric Brownian Motion, with this, the project price is simulated using Montecarlo simulations and finding the mean of TRM for three, six and twelve months. For financial hedging, currency options were used. The 6-month projection was covered with financial options on European-type currency with a strike price of $ 2,780.47 for each month; this value corresponds to the last value of the historical TRM. In the compensation of the options in each month, the price paid for the premium, calculated with the Black-Scholes method for currency options, was considered. Finally, with the modeling of prices and the Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of the exchange hedging with options on the exporting company was determined, this by means of the unit price estimate to which the dollars in the scenario without coverage were changed and scenario with coverage. After using the scenarios: is determinate that the TRM will have a bull trend and the exporting firm will be affected positively because they will get more pesos for each dollar. The results show that the financial options manage to reduce the exchange risk. The expected value with coverage is approximate to the expected value without coverage, but the 5% percentile with coverage is greater than without coverage. The foregoing indicates that in the worst scenarios the exporting companies will obtain better prices for the sale of the currencies if they cover.

Keywords: currency hedging, futures, geometric Brownian motion, options

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Authors: Wee Tong Liaw, Elaine Wong Yee Sing

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The main objective and focus of this study are to establish the significance of a sustained health promoting workplace on stock and portfolio returns focusing on companies listed on the Singapore stock exchange, using a two-factor model comprising of the single factor CAPM and a 'health promoting workplace' factor. The 'health promoting workplace' factor represents the excess returns derived between two portfolios of component stocks that, when combined, would represent a top tier stock market index in Singapore, namely the STI index. The first portfolio represents companies that are independently assessed by the Singapore’s Health Award, SHA, to have a sustained and comprehensive health promoting workplace (SHA-STI portfolio) and the second portfolio represents companies that had not been independently assessed (Non-SHA STI portfolio). Since 2001, many companies in Singapore have voluntarily participated in the bi-annual Singapore HEALTH Award initiated by the Health Promotion Board of Singapore (HPB). The Singapore HEALTH Award (SHA), is an industry-wide award and assessment process. SHA assesses and recognizes employers in Singapore for implementing a comprehensive and sustainable health promotion programme at their workplaces. When using a ten year holding period instead of a one year holding period, excess returns in the SHA-STI portfolio over Non-SHA STI portfolio were consistently being observed over all test periods, during 2001 to 2013. In addition, when applied to the SHA-STI portfolio, results from the Two Factor Model consistently revealed higher explanatory powers across all test periods for the portfolio as well as all the individual component stocks in SHA-STI portfolio, than the single factor CAPM model. However, with respect to attaining higher level of achievement in the Singapore Health Award, this study did not show any incentive for selecting listed companies that have achieved a higher level of award. Results from this study would give further insights to investors and fund managers alike who intend to consider health promoting workplace as a risk factor in their stock or portfolio selection process, in particular for investors who have a preference for STI’s component stocks and with a longer investment horizon. Key micro factors like management abilities, business development strategies and production capabilities that meet the needs of market would create the demand for a company’s product(s) or service(s) and consequently contribute to its top line and profitability. Thereafter, the existence of a sustainable health promoting workplace would be a key catalytic factor in sustaining a productive workforce needed to support the continued success of a profitable business.

Keywords: asset pricing model, company's performance, stock returns, financial risk factor, sustained health promoting workplace

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Authors: S. Sarumathi, C. Deepadharani, Garimella Archana, S. Dakshayani, D. Logeshwaran, D. Jayakumar, Vijayarangan Natarajan

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The need of the hour for the customers who use a dial-up or a low broadband connection for their internet services is to access HD video data. This can be achieved by developing a new video format using H. 265. This is the latest video codec standard developed by ISO/IEC Moving Picture Experts Group (MPEG) and ITU-T Video Coding Experts Group (VCEG) on April 2013. This new standard for video compression has the potential to deliver higher performance than the earlier standards such as H. 264/AVC. In comparison with H. 264, HEVC offers a clearer, higher quality image at half the original bitrate. At this lower bitrate, it is possible to transmit high definition videos using low bandwidth. It doubles the data compression ratio supporting 8K Ultra HD and resolutions up to 8192×4320. In the proposed model, we design a new video format which supports this H. 265 standard. The major areas of applications in the coming future would lead to enhancements in the performance level of digital television like Tata Sky and Sun Direct, BluRay Discs, Mobile Video, Video Conferencing and Internet and Live Video streaming.

Keywords: access HD video, H. 265 video standard, high performance, high quality image, low bandwidth, new video format, video streaming applications

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Bronwen Wade

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Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.

Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality

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Authors: Sumanta Kumar Saha, Jie Qin

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This study analyzes the impact of financial inclusion on gender inequality in 126 countries belonging to different income groups during the 2005–2019 period. Due to its positive influence on poverty alleviation, economic growth, women empowerment, and income inequality reduction, financial inclusion may help reduce gender equality. This study constructs a novel composite financial inclusion index and applies both fixed-effect panel estimation and instrumental variable approach to examine the impact of financial inclusion on gender inequality. The results indicate that financial inclusion can reduce gender inequality in developing and low- and lower-middle-income countries, but not in higher-income countries. The impact is not always immediate. Past financial inclusion initiatives have a significant influence on future gender inequality. Financial inclusion is also significant if the poverty level is high and women's access to financial services is low compared to men. When the poverty level is low, or women have equal access to financial services, financial inclusion does not significantly affect gender inequality. The study finds that compulsory education and improvement in institutional quality promote gender equality in developing countries apart from financial inclusion. The study proposes that lower-income countries use financial inclusion initiatives to improve gender equality. Other countries need to focus on other aspects such as promoting educational support and institutional quality improvements to achieve gender equality.

Keywords: financial inclusion, gender inequality, institutional quality, women empowerment

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Authors: Afifa Aslam, Muhammad Ibrahim, Abid Mahmood, Muhammad Usman Alvi, Fariha Jabeen, Umara Tabassum

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Many factors cause air pollution in Pakistan, which poses a significant threat to human health. Diesel fuel and gasoline motor vehicles, as well as industrial companies, pollute the air in Pakistan's cities. The study's goal is to determine the level of air pollution in a Pakistani industrial city and to establish risk levels for the health of the population. We measured the intensity of air pollution by chemical characterization and examination of air samples collected at stationary remark sites. The PM10 levels observed at all sampling sites, including residential, commercial, high-traffic, and industrial areas were well above the limits imposed by Pakistan EPA, the United States EPA, and WHO. We assessed the health risk via chemical factors using a methodology approved for risk assessment. All Igeo index values greater than one were considered moderately contaminated or moderately to severely contaminated. Heavy metals have a substantial risk of acute adverse effects. In Faisalabad, Pakistan, there was an enormously high risk of chronic effects produced by a heavy metal acquaintance. Concerning specified toxic metals, intolerable levels of carcinogenic risks have been determined for the entire population. As a result, in most of the investigated areas of Faisalabad, the indices and hazard quotients for chronic and acute exposure exceeded the permissible level of 1.0. In the current study, re-suspended roadside mineral dust, anthropogenic exhaust emissions from traffic and industry, and industrial dust were identified as major emission sources of elemental particulate contents. Because of the unacceptable levels of risk in the research area, it is strongly suggested that a comprehensive study of the population's health status as a result of air pollution should be conducted for policies to be developed against these risks.

Keywords: elemental composition, particulate pollution, Igeo index, health risk assessment, hazard quotient

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Authors: Hui-Chen Tsai, Chien-Jen Ho, Bo-Wei Power Liang, Ying Shen, Yi-Hsin Lai

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Former Taiwan Metal Mining Corporation and its associated 3 wasted flue gas tunnels, hereinafter referred to as 'TMMC', was contaminated with heavy metals, Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPHs) in soil. Since the contamination had been exposed and unmanaged in the environment for more than 40 years, the extent of the contamination area is estimated to be more than 25 acres. Additionally, TMMC is located in a remote, mountainous area where almost no residents are residing in the 1-km radius area. Thus, it was deemed necessary to conduct an ecological risk assessment in order to evaluate the details of future contaminated site management plan. According to the winter and summer, ecological investigation results, one type of endangered, multiple vulnerable and near threaten plant was discovered, as well as numerous other protected species, such as Crested Serpent Eagle, Crested Goshawk, Black Kite, Brown Shrike, Taiwan Blue Magpie were observed. Ecological soil screening level (Eco-SSLs) developed by USEPA was adopted as a reference to conduct screening assessment. Since all the protected species observed surrounding TMMC site were birds, screening ecological risk assessment was conducted on birds only. The assessment was assessed mainly based on the chemical evaluation, which the contamination in different environmental media was compared directly with the ecological impact levels (EIL) of each evaluation endpoints and the respective hazard quotient (HQ) and hazard index (HI) could be obtained. The preliminary ecological risk assessment results indicated HI is greater than 1. In other words, the biological stressors (birds) were exposed to the contamination, which was already exceeded the dosage that could cause unacceptable impacts to the ecological system. This result was mainly due to the high concentration of arsenic, metal and lead; thus it was suggested the above mention contaminants should be remediated as soon as possible or proper risk management measures should be taken.

Keywords: screening, ecological risk assessment, ecological impact levels, risk management

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Authors: Thidathit Prachanukool, Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Welawat Tienpratarn, Sorravit Savatmongkorngul, Panvilai Tangkulpanich, Chetsadakon Jenpanitpong, Yuranan Phootothum, Malivan Phontabtim, Promphet Nuanprom

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Background: Ruptured appendicitis has a high morbidity and mortality and requires immediate surgery. The Alvarado Score is used as a tool to predict the risk of acute appendicitis, but there is no such score for predicting rupture. This study aimed to developed the prediction score to determine the likelihood of ruptured appendicitis in an Asian population. Methods: This study was diagnostic, retrospectively cross-sectional and exploratory model at the Emergency Medicine Department in Ramathibodi Hospital between March 2016 and March 2018. The inclusion criteria were age >15 years and an available pathology report after appendectomy. Clinical factors included gender, age>60 years, right lower quadrant pain, migratory pain, nausea and/or vomiting, diarrhea, anorexia, fever>37.3°C, rebound tenderness, guarding, white blood cell count, polymorphonuclear white blood cells (PMN)>75%, and the pain duration before presentation. The predictive model and prediction score for ruptured appendicitis was developed by multivariable logistic regression analysis. Result: During the study period, 480 patients met the inclusion criteria; of these, 77 (16%) had ruptured appendicitis. Five independent factors were predictive of rupture, age>60 years, fever>37.3°C, guarding, PMN>75%, and duration of pain>24 hours to presentation. A score > 6 increased the likelihood ratio of ruptured appendicitis by 3.88 times. Conclusion: Using the Ramathibodi Welawat Ruptured Appendicitis Score. (RAMA WeRA Score) developed in this study, a score of > 6 was associated with ruptured appendicitis.

Keywords: predictive model, risk score, ruptured appendicitis, emergency room

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Authors: Maria Luisa de la Torre, Javier Aroba, Jose Miguel Davila, Aguasanta M. Sarmiento

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Steel is one of the most widely used materials in polymetallic sulfide mining installations. One of the main problems suffered by these facilities is the economic losses due to the corrosion of this material, which is accelerated and aggravated by the contact with acid waters generated in these mines when sulfides come into contact with oxygen and water. This generation of acidic water, in turn, is accelerated by the presence of acidophilic bacteria. In order to gain a more detailed understanding of this corrosion process and the interaction between steel and acidic water, a laboratory experiment was carried out in which carbon steel plates were introduced into four different solutions for 27 days: distilled water (BK), which tried to assimilate the effect produced by rain on this material, an acid solution from a mine with a high Fe2+/Fe3+ (PO) content, another acid solution of water from another mine with a high Fe3+/Fe2+ (PH) content and, finally, one that reproduced the acid mine water with a high Fe2+/Fe3+ content but in which there were no bacteria (ST). Every 24 hours, physicochemical parameters were measured, and water samples were taken to carry out an analysis of the dissolved elements. The results of these measurements were processed using an explainable AI model based on fuzzy logic. It could be seen that, in all cases, there was an increase in pH, as well as in the concentrations of Fe and, in particular, Fe(II), as a consequence of the oxidation of the steel plates. Proportionally, the increase in Fe concentration was higher in PO and ST than in PH because Fe precipitates were produced in the latter. The rise of Fe(II) was proportionally much higher in PH, especially in the first hours of exposure, because it started from a lower initial concentration of this ion. Although to a lesser extent than in PH, the greater increase in Fe(II) also occurred faster in PO than in ST, a consequence of the action of the catalytic bacteria. On the other hand, Cu concentrations decreased throughout the experiment (with the exception of distilled water, which initially had no Cu, as a result of an electrochemical process that generates a precipitation of Cu together with Fe hydroxides. This decrease is lower in PH because the high total acidity keeps it in solution for a longer time. With the application of an artificial intelligence tool, it has been possible to evaluate the effects of steel corrosion in mining environments, corroborating and extending what was obtained by means of classical statistics.

Keywords: acid mine drainage, artificial intelligence, carbon steel, corrosion, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Muhammad Yusuf, Abdul Latief Toleng, Djoni Prawira Rahardja, Ambo Ako, Sahiruddin Sahiruddin, Abdi Eriansyah

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The objective of this study was to know the reproductive performance of dairy cows at different parities. A total of 60 dairy Holstein-Friesian cows with parity one to three from five small farms raised by the farmers were used in the study. All cows were confined in tie stall barn with rubber on the concrete floor. The herds were visited twice for survey with the help of a questionnaire. Reproductive parameters used in the study were days open, calving interval, and service per conception (S/C). The results of this study showed that the mean (±SD) days open of the cows in parity 2 was slightly longer than those in parity 3 (228.2±121.5 vs. 205.5±144.5; P=0.061). None cows conceived within 85 days postpartum in parity 3 in comparison to 13.8% cows conceived in parity 2. However, total cows conceived within 150 days post partum in parity 2 and parity 3 were 30.1% and 36.4%, respectively. Likewise, after reaching 210 days after calving, number of cows conceived in parity 3 had higher than number of cows in parity 2 (72.8% vs. 44.8%; P<0.05). The mean (±SD) calving interval of the cows in parity 2 and parity 3 were 508.2±121.5 and 495.5±144.1, respectively. Number of cows with calving interval of 400 and 450 days in parity 3 was higher than those cows in parity 2 (23.1% vs. 17.2% and 53.9% vs. 31.0%). Cows in parity 1 had significantly (P<0.01) lower number of S/C in comparison to the cows with parity 2 and parity 3 (1.6±1.2 vs. 3.5±3.4 and 3.3±2.1). It can be concluded that reproductive performance of the cows is affected by different parities.

Keywords: dairy cows, parity, days open, calving interval, service per conception

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Alaoui Hamza, Moutacalli Mohamed Tarik, Chebak Ahmed

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The number of people suffering from hemiplegia is growing each year. This lower limb disability affects all the aspects of their lives by taking away their autonomy. This implicates their close relatives, as well as the health system to provide the necessary care they need. The integration of exoskeletons in the medical field became a promising solution to resolve this issue. This paper presents an exoskeleton designed to help hemiplegic people get back the sensation and ability of normal walking. For this purpose, three step models have been created. The first step allows a simple forward movement of the leg. The second method is designed to overcome some obstacles in the patient path, and finally the third step model gives the patient total control over the device. Each of the control methods was designed to offer a solution to the challenges that the patients may face during the walking process.

Keywords: ability of normal walking, exoskeleton, hemiplegic patients, lower limb motion- mechatronics

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Authors: Schehrazad Selmane

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We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.

Keywords: deterministic model, reproduction number, stability, tuberculosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Natchaphon Auampradit, Patama Vapattanawong, Sureeporn Punpuing, Malee Sunpuwan, Tawanchai Jirapramukpitak

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Longitudinal studies related to cognitive impairment in elderly are necessary for health promotion and development. The purposes of this study were (1) to examine changes in cognition of elderly over time and (2) to examine the impacts of changes in social determinants of health (SDH) toward changes in cognition of elderly by using the secondary data derived from the Kanchanaburi Demographic Surveillance System (KDSS) by the Institute for Population and Social Research (IPSR) which contained longitudinal data on individuals, households, and villages. Two selected projects included the Health and Social Support for Elderly in KDSS in 2007 and the Population, Economic, Social, Cultural, and Long-term Care Surveillance for Thai Elderly People’s Health Promotion in 2011. The samples were 586 elderly participated in both projects. SDH included living arrangement, social relationships with children, relatives, and friends, household asset-based wealth index, household monthly income, loans for livings, loans for investment, and working status. Cognitive impairment was measured by category fluency and delayed recall. This study employed Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) model to investigate changes in cognition by taking SDH and other variables such as age, gender, marital status, education, and depression into the model. The unstructured correlation structure was selected to use for analysis. The results revealed that 24 percent of elderly had cognitive impairment at baseline. About 13 percent of elderly still had cognitive impairment during 2007 until 2011. About 21 percent and 11 percent of elderly had cognitive decline and cognitive improvement, respectively. The cross-sectional analysis showed that household asset-based wealth index, social relationship with friends, working status, age, marital status, education, and depression were significantly associated with cognitive impairment. The GEE model revealed longitudinal effects of household asset-based wealth index and working status against cognition during 2007 until 2011. There was no longitudinal effect of social conditions against cognition. Elderly living with richer household asset-based wealth index, still being employed, and being younger were less likely to have cognitive impairment. The results strongly suggested that poorer household asset-based wealth index and being unemployed were served as a risk factor for cognitive impairment over time. Increasing age was still the major risk for cognitive impairment as well.

Keywords: changes in cognition, cognitive impairment, elderly, KDSS, longitudinal study

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Authors: Beng Yew Low, Cher Liang Cha, Cheng Yong Teoh

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Due to a lack of continual assessment or grade related data, identifying first-year engineering students in a polytechnic education at risk of failing is challenging. Our experience over the years tells us that there is no strong correlation between having good entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences and excelling in hardcore engineering subjects. Hence, identifying students at risk of failure cannot be on the basis of entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences alone. These factors compound the difficulty of early identification and intervention. This paper describes the development of a predictive analytics model in the early detection of students at risk of failing and evaluates its effectiveness. Data from continual assessments conducted in term one, supplemented by data of student psychological profiles such as interests and study habits, were used. Three classification techniques, namely Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbour, and Random Forest, were used in our predictive model. Based on our findings, Random Forest was determined to be the strongest predictor with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.994. Correspondingly, the Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F-Score were also highest among these three classifiers. Using this Random Forest Classification technique, students at risk of failure could be identified at the end of term one. They could then be assigned to a Learning Support Programme at the beginning of term two. This paper gathers the results of our findings. It also proposes further improvements that can be made to the model.

Keywords: continual assessment, predictive analytics, random forest, student psychological profile

Procedia PDF Downloads 134