Search results for: generalised pareto distribution

Authors: Alain Villemeur

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The relationships between the profit share in income on the one hand and the growth rates of output and employment on the other hand have been studied for 17 advanced economies since 1961. The vast majority (98%) of annual values for the profit share fall between 20% and 40%, with an average value of 33.9%. For the 17 advanced economies, Gross Domestic Product and productivity growth rates tend to fall as the profit share in income rises. For the employment growth rates, the relationships are complex; nevertheless, over long periods (1961-2000), it appears that the more job-creating economies are Australia, Canada, and the United States; they have experienced a profit share close to 1/3. This raises a number of questions, not least the value of 1/3 for the profit share and its role in macroeconomic fundamentals. To explain these facts, an endogenous growth model is developed. This growth and distribution model reconciles the great ideas of Kaldor (economic growth as a chain reaction), of Keynes (effective demand and marginal efficiency of capital) and of Ricardo (importance of the wage-profit distribution) in an economy facing creative destruction. A production function is obtained, depending mainly on the growth of employment, the rate of net investment and the profit share in income. In theory, we show the existence of incentives: an incentive for job creation when the profit share is less than 1/3 and another incentive for job destruction in the opposite case. Thus, increasing the profit share can boost the employment growth rate until it reaches the value of 1/3; otherwise lowers the employment growth rate. Three key findings can be drawn from these considerations. The first reveals that the best GDP and productivity growth rates are obtained with a profit share of less than 1/3. The second is that maximum job growth is associated with a 1/3 profit share, given the existence of incentives to create more jobs when the profit share is less than 1/3 or to destroy more jobs otherwise. The third is the decline in performance (GDP growth rate and productivity growth rate) when the profit share increases. In conclusion, increasing the profit share in income weakens GDP growth or productivity growth as a long-term trend, contrary to the trickle-down hypothesis. The employment growth rate is maximum for a profit share in income of 1/3. All these lessons suggest macroeconomic policies considering the profit share in income.

Keywords: advanced countries, GDP growth, employment growth, profit share, economic policies

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Authors: Houmame Benbouali

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Some architectural conditions required some shapes often lead to an irregular distribution of masses, rigidities and resistances. The main object of the present study consists in estimating the influence of the irregularity both in plan and in elevation which presenting some structures on the dynamic characteristics and his influence on the behavior of this structures. To do this, it is necessary to apply both dynamic methods proposed by the RPA99 (spectral modal method and method of analysis by accelerogram) on certain similar prototypes and to analyze the parameters measuring the answer of these structures and to proceed to a comparison of the results.

Keywords: irregularity, seismic, response, structure, ductility

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Authors: Petr Jizba, Jan Korbel

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We combine an axiomatics of Rényi with the q-deformed version of Khinchin axioms to obtain a measure of information (i.e., entropy) which accounts both for systems with embedded self-similarity and non-extensivity. We show that the entropy thus obtained is uniquely solved in terms of a one-parameter family of information measures. The ensuing maximal-entropy distribution is phrased in terms of a special function known as the Lambert W-function. We analyze the corresponding ‘high’ and ‘low-temperature’ asymptotics and reveal a non-trivial structure of the parameter space.

Keywords: multifractals, Rényi information entropy, THC entropy, MaxEnt, heavy-tailed distributions

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Authors: M. G. Murtaza, E. E. Tzirtzilakis, M. Ferdows

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Biomagnetic fluid dynamics is an interdisciplinary field comprising engineering, medicine, and biology. Bio fluid dynamics is directed towards finding and developing the solutions to some of the human body related diseases and disorders. This article describes the flow and heat transfer of two dimensional, steady, laminar, viscous and incompressible biomagnetic fluid over a non-linear stretching sheet in the presence of magnetic dipole. Our model is consistent with blood fluid namely biomagnetic fluid dynamics (BFD). This model based on the principles of ferrohydrodynamic (FHD). The temperature at the stretching surface is assumed to follow a power law variation, and stretching velocity is assumed to have a nonlinear form with signum function or sign function. The governing boundary layer equations with boundary conditions are simplified to couple higher order equations using usual transformations. Numerical solutions for the governing momentum and energy equations are obtained by efficient numerical techniques based on the common finite difference method with central differencing, on a tridiagonal matrix manipulation and on an iterative procedure. Computations are performed for a wide range of the governing parameters such as magnetic field parameter, power law exponent temperature parameter, and other involved parameters and the effect of these parameters on the velocity and temperature field is presented. It is observed that for different values of the magnetic parameter, the velocity distribution decreases while temperature distribution increases. Besides, the finite difference solutions results for skin-friction coefficient and rate of heat transfer are discussed. This study will have an important bearing on a high targeting efficiency, a high magnetic field is required in the targeted body compartment.

Keywords: biomagnetic fluid, FHD, MHD, nonlinear stretching sheet

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Authors: Werede Girmay Tesfasilasiea

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Three stratigraphic sections of the Antalo Limestone successions in Mekelle Outlier, northern Ethiopia (at Hagere-Selam, Messobo, and Wukro sections) have been investigated to distinguish their microfacies features, reservoir characterization, and their equivalent depositional environments. The Antalo Limestone successions were deposited in the Mekelle Outlier during the Upper Jurassic period as a result of flooding of the area by the Tethys Ocean toward the southeast direction. This study is based on field description and petrographic analysis to determine the depositional environment, age, and reservoir characteristics of the carbonate units. According to petrographical studies of 100 thin sections and field investigation, 14 microfacies types are recognized. These are grouped into 4 microfacies association of a tidal flat (MFT1-2), lagoons (MFL1-2), shoal (MFS1-4), and open marine environment (MFO1-6). Hence, the Antalo limestone successions are deposited in shallow carbonate ramps with a wide lateral and vertical distribution of facies. The carbonate units in the studied sections are affected by bioturbation, micritization, cementation, dolomitization, dissolution, silicification, and compaction type of early diagenetic alteration. Dissolution and dolomitization affected the type of rock, showing good reservoir quality, while cementation and compaction affected the type of rock, resulting in poor reservoir quality in the Antalo Limestone successions of the Mekelle outlier. Based on the abundant distribution of the Alveosepta jaccardi (Schrodt), Pseudocyclammina lituus (Yokoyama), Kurnubia palestiniensis (Henson), and Somalirhynchia africana in the studied sections the Antalo Limestone successions assigned to the Late Oxfordian-Kimmeridgian age.

Keywords: Antelo limestone successions, depositional environment, Mekelle outlier, microfacies analysis, diagenesis, reservoir quality

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Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh

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As a great physiographic divide, the Himalayas affecting a large system of water and air circulation which helps to determine the climatic condition in the Indian subcontinent to the south and mid-Asian highlands to the north. It creates obstacles by defending chill continental air from north side into India in winter and also defends rain-bearing southwesterly monsoon to give up maximum precipitation in that area in monsoon season. Nowadays extreme weather conditions such as heavy precipitation, cloudburst, flash flood, landslide and extreme avalanches are the regular happening incidents in the region of North Western Himalayan (NWH). The present study has been planned to investigate the suitable model(s) to find out the rainfall pattern over that region. For this investigation, selected models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has been utilized in a consistent framework for the period of 1976 to 2000 (historical). The ability of these driving models from CORDEX domain and CMIP5 has been examined according to their capability of the spatial distribution as well as time series plot of rainfall over NWH in the rainy season and compared with the ground-based Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data set. It is noted from the analysis that the models like MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR from the both CORDEX and CMIP5 provide the best spatial distribution of rainfall over NWH region. But the driving models from CORDEX underestimates the daily rainfall amount as compared to CMIP5 driving models as it is unable to capture daily rainfall data properly when it has been plotted for time series (TS) individually for the state of Uttarakhand (UK) and Himachal Pradesh (HP). So finally it can be said that the driving models from CMIP5 are better than CORDEX domain models to investigate the rainfall pattern over NWH region.

Keywords: global warming, rainfall, CMIP5, CORDEX, NWH

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Authors: Amira Abdulrazzaq

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This paper is studying the opinion of faculty members and students about the future of education (e-learning) at the University of Bahrain. Through quantitative analysis a distribution of two surveys, one targeting students of IT College, and College of Arts and the other targeting Faculty members of both Colleges. Through the above survey, the paper measures the following factors: awareness and acceptance, satisfaction, usability, and usefulness. Results indicate positive reactions of all above factors.

Keywords: e-learning, education, moodle, WebCT

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Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Seyed Armin Motahari Tabari

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Coarse-grained soils are known and commonly used in a wide range of geotechnical projects, including high earth dams or embankments for their high shear strength. The most important engineering property of these soils is friction angle which represents the interlocking between soil particles and can be applied widely in designing and constructing these earth structures. Friction angle and dilative behavior of coarse-grained soils can be estimated from empirical correlations with in-situ testing and physical properties of the soil or measured directly in the laboratory performing direct shear or triaxial tests. Unfortunately, large-scale testing is difficult, challenging, and expensive and is not possible in most soil mechanic laboratories. So, it is common to remove the large particles and do the tests, which cannot be counted as an exact estimation of the parameters and behavior of the original soil. This paper describes a new methodology to simulate particles grading distribution of a well-graded gravel sample to a smaller scale sample as it can be tested in an ordinary direct shear apparatus to estimate the stress-strain behavior, friction angle, and dilative behavior of the original coarse-grained soil considering its confining pressure, and relative density using a machine learning method. A total number of 72 direct shear tests are performed in 6 different sizes, 3 different confining pressures, and 4 different relative densities. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) technique was used to develop an equation in order to predict shear strength and dilative behavior based on the size distribution of coarse-grained soil particles. Also, an uncertainty analysis was performed in order to examine the reliability of the proposed equation.

Keywords: MARS, coarse-grained soil, shear strength, uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Prami Sengupta, Randall A. Cantrell, Tracy Johns

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A typical US household consumes more energy than households in other countries and is directly responsible for a considerable proportion of the atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gases. This makes U.S. household a vital target group for energy conservation studies. Positive household behavior is central to residential energy conservation. However, for individuals to conserve energy they must not only know how to conserve energy but be also willing to do so. That is, a positive attitude towards residential conservation and an intention to conserve energy are two of the most important psychological determinants for energy conservation behavior. Most social science studies, to date, have studied the relationships between attitude, intention, and behavior by building upon socio-psychological theories of behavior. However, these frameworks, including the widely used Theory of Planned Behavior and Social Cognitive Theory, lack a spatial component. That is, these studies fail to capture the impact of the geographical locations of homeowners’ residences on their residential energy consumption and conservation practices. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to explore geospatial relationships between homeowners’ residential energy conservation-attitudes, conservation-intentions, and consumption behavior. The study analyzes residential conservation-attitudes and conservation-intentions of homeowners across 63 counties in Florida and compares it with quantifiable measures of residential energy consumption. Empirical findings revealed that the spatial distribution of high and/or low values of homeowners’ mean-score values of conservation-attitudes and conservation-intentions are more spatially clustered than would be expected if the underlying spatial processes were random. On the contrary, the spatial distribution of high and/or low values of households’ carbon footprints was found to be more spatially dispersed than assumed if the underlying spatial process were random. The study also examined the influence of potential spatial variables, such as urban or rural setting and presence of educational institutions and/or extension program, on the conservation-attitudes, intentions, and behaviors of homeowners.

Keywords: conservation-attitude, conservation-intention, geospatial analysis, residential energy consumption, spatial autocorrelation

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Authors: Marcel Meinhardt, Manfred Keuser, Thomas Braml

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Cracking of reinforced concrete is a complex phenomenon induced by direct loads or restraints affecting reinforced concrete structures as soon as the tensile strength of the concrete is exceeded. Hence it is important to predict where cracks will be located and how they will propagate. The bond theory and the crack formulas in the actual design codes, for example, DIN EN 1992-1-1, are all based on the assumption that the reinforcement bars are embedded in homogeneous concrete without taking into account the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress situation. However, it can often be observed that real structures such as walls, slabs or beams show a crack spacing that is orientated to the transverse reinforcement bars or to the stirrups. In most Finite Element Analysis studies, the smeared crack approach is used for crack prediction. The disadvantage of this model is that the typical strain localization of a crack on element level can’t be seen. The crack propagation in concrete is a discontinuous process characterized by different factors such as the initial random distribution of defects or the scatter of material properties. Such behavior presupposes the elaboration of adequate models and methods of simulation because traditional mechanical approaches deal mainly with average material parameters. This paper concerned with the modelling of the initiation and the propagation of cracks in reinforced concrete structures considering the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress distribution in reinforced concrete (R/C) beams/plates in bending action. Therefore, a parameter study was carried out to investigate: (I) the influence of the transversal reinforcement to the stress distribution in concrete in bending mode and (II) the crack initiation in dependence of the diameter and distance of the transversal reinforcement to each other. The numerical investigations on the crack initiation and propagation were carried out with a 2D reinforced concrete structure subjected to quasi static loading and given boundary conditions. To model the uncertainty in the tensile strength of concrete in the Finite Element Analysis correlated normally and lognormally distributed random filed with different correlation lengths were generated. The paper also presents and discuss different methods to generate random fields, e.g. the Covariance Matrix Decomposition Method. For all computations, a plastic constitutive law with softening was used to model the crack initiation and the damage of the concrete in tension. It was found that the distributions of crack spacing and crack widths are highly dependent of the used random field. These distributions are validated to experimental studies on R/C panels which were carried out at the Laboratory for Structural Engineering at the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich. Also, a recommendation for parameters of the random field for realistic modelling the uncertainty of the tensile strength is given. The aim of this research was to show a method in which the localization of strains and cracks as well as the influence of transverse reinforcement on the crack initiation and propagation in Finite Element Analysis can be seen.

Keywords: crack initiation, crack modelling, crack propagation, cracks, numerical simulation, random fields, reinforced concrete, stochastic

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Authors: Mustafa Mutahari, Nao Sugiki, Kojiro Matsuo

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The four decades of war, lack of job opportunities, poverty, lack of services, and natural disasters in different provinces of Afghanistan have contributed to a rapid increase in the population of Kabul, the capital city of Afghanistan. Population census has not been conducted since 1979, the first and last population census in Afghanistan. However, according to population estimations by Afghan authorities, the population of Kabul has been estimated at more than 4 million people, whereas the city was designed for two million people. Although the major transport mode of Kabul residents is public transport, responsible authorities within the country failed to supply the required means of transportation systems for the city. Besides, informal resettlement, lack of intersection control devices, presence of illegal vendors on streets, presence of illegal and unstandardized on-street parking and bus stops, driver`s unprofessional behavior, weak traffic law enforcement, and blocked roads and sidewalks have contributed to the extreme traffic congestion of Kabul. In 2018, the government of Afghanistan approved the Kabul city Urban Design Framework (KUDF), a vision towards the future of Kabul, which provides strategies and design guidance at different scales to direct urban development. Considering traffic congestion of the city and its budget limitations, the KUDF proposes a BRT route network with seven lines to reduce the traffic congestion, and it is said to facilitate more than 50% of Kabul population to benefit from this service. Based on the KUDF, it is planned to increase the BRT mode share from 0% to 17% and later to 30% in medium and long-term planning scenarios, respectively. Therefore, a detailed research study is needed to evaluate the proposed system before the implementation stage starts. The integrated land-use transport model is an effective tool to evaluate the Kabul BRT because of its future assessment capabilities that take into account the interaction between land use and transportation. This research aims to analyze and evaluate the proposed BRT route network with the application of an integrated land-use and transportation model. The research estimates the population distribution and travel behavior of Kabul within small boundary scales. The actual road network and land-use detailed data of the city are used to perform the analysis. The BRT corridors are evaluated not only considering its impacts on the spatial interactions in the city`s transportation system but also on the spatial developments. Therefore, the BRT are evaluated with the scenarios of improving the Kabul transportation system based on the distribution of land-use or spatial developments, planned development typology and population distribution of the city. The impacts of the new improved transport system on the BRT network are analyzed and the BRT network is evaluated accordingly. In addition, the research also focuses on the spatial accessibility of BRT stops, corridors, and BRT line beneficiaries, and each BRT stop and corridor are evaluated in terms of both access and geographic coverage, as well.

Keywords: accessibility, BRT, integrated land-use and transport model, travel behavior, spatial development

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Authors: Richard Renou, Laurent Soulard

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Lasers are widely used in glass material processing, from waveguide fabrication to channel drilling. The gradual damage of glass optics under UV lasers is also an important issue to be addressed. Glass materials (including metallic glasses) can undergo a permanent densification under laser-induced shock loading. Despite increased interest on interactions between laser and glass materials, little is known about the structural mechanisms involved under shock loading. For example, the densification process in silica glasses occurs between 8 GPa and 30 GPa. Above 30 GPa, the glass material returns to the original density after relaxation. Investigating these unusual mechanisms in silica glass will provide an overall better understanding in glass behaviour. Non-Equilibrium Molecular Dynamics simulations (NEMD) were carried out in order to gain insight on the silica glass microscopic structure under shock loading. The shock was generated by the use of a piston impacting the glass material at high velocity (from 100m/s up to 2km/s). Periodic boundary conditions were used in the directions perpendicular to the shock propagation to model an infinite system. One-dimensional shock propagations were therefore studied. Simulations were performed with the STAMP code developed by the CEA. A very specific structure is observed in a silica glass. Oxygen atoms around Silicon atoms are organized in tetrahedrons. Those tetrahedrons are linked and tend to form rings inside the structure. A significant amount of empty cavities is also observed in glass materials. In order to understand how a shock loading is impacting the overall structure, the tetrahedrons, the rings and the cavities were thoroughly analysed. An elastic behaviour was observed when the shock pressure is below 8 GPa. This is consistent with the Hugoniot Elastic Limit (HEL) of 8.8 GPa estimated experimentally for silica glasses. Behind the shock front, the ring structure and the cavity distribution are impacted. The ring volume is smaller, and most cavities disappear with increasing shock pressure. However, the tetrahedral structure is not affected. The elasticity of the glass structure is therefore related to a ring shrinking and a cavity closing. Above the HEL, the shock pressure is high enough to impact the tetrahedral structure. An increasing number of hexahedrons and octahedrons are formed with the pressure. The large rings break to form smaller ones. The cavities are however not impacted as most cavities are already closed under an elastic shock. After the material relaxation, a significant amount of hexahedrons and octahedrons is still observed, and most of the cavities remain closed. The overall ring distribution after relaxation is similar to the equilibrium distribution. The densification process is therefore related to two structural mechanisms: a change in the coordination of silicon atoms and a cavity closing. To sum up, non-equilibrium molecular dynamics were carried out to investigate silica behaviour under shock loading. Analysing the structure lead to interesting conclusions upon the elastic and the densification mechanisms in glass materials. This work will be completed with a detailed study of the mechanism occurring above 30 GPa, where no sign of densification is observed after the material relaxation.

Keywords: densification, molecular dynamics simulations, shock loading, silica glass

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Authors: Liana Gomide, Juliana Rodrigues

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The morphology of the foot defines its mode of operation and a biomechanical reform indispensable for a symmetrical distribution of plantar pressures in order not to overload some of its components in isolation. High plantar pressures at specific points in the foot may be a causal factor in several orthopedic disorders that affect the feet such as pain and stress fracture. With digital baro-podometry equipment one can observe an intensity of pressures along the entire foot and quantify some of the movements, such as a subtalar pronation present in the midfoot region. Although, they are involved in microtraumas. In clinical practice, excessive movement has been limited with the use of different taping techniques applied on the plantar arch. Thus, the objective of the present study was to analyze and compare the influence of the inelastic and elastic taping on the distribution of plantar pressure of runners pronators. This is a randomized clinical trial and blind-crossover. Twenty (20) male subjects, mean age 33 ± 7 years old, mean body mass of 71 ± 7 kg, mean height of 174 ± 6 cm, were included in the study. A data collection was carried out by a single research through barop-odometry equipment - Tekscan, model F-scan mobile. The tests were performed at three different times. In the first, an initial barop-odometric evaluation was performed, without a bandage application, with edges at a speed of 9.0 km/h. In the second and third moments, the inelastic or elastic taping was applied consecutively, according to the definition defined in the randomization. As results, it was observed that both as inelastic and elastic taping, provided significant reductions in contact pressure and peak pressure values when compared to the moment without a taping. However, an elastic taping was more effective in decreasing contact pressure (no bandage = 714 ± 201, elastic taping = 690 ± 210 and inelastic taping = 716 ± 180) and no peak pressure in the midfoot region (no bandage = 1490 ± 42, elastic taping = 1273 ± 323 and inelastic taping = 1487 ± 437). It is possible to conclude that it is an elastic taping provided by pressure in the middle region, thereby reducing the subtalar pronunciation event during the run.

Keywords: elastic taping, inelastic taping, running, subtalar pronation

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Authors: Shaikah Alsubayae, Gianluigi Casse, Carlos Chavez, Jon Taylor, Alan Taylor, Mohammad Alsulimane

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Ensuring accurate radiotherapy with carbon therapy requires precise monitoring of radiation dose distribution within the patient's body. This monitoring is essential for targeted tumor treatment, minimizing harm to healthy tissues, and improving treatment effectiveness while lowering side effects. In our investigation, we employed a methodological approach to monitor secondary proton doses in carbon therapy using Monte Carlo simulations. Initially, Geant4 simulations were utilized to extract the initial positions of secondary particles formed during interactions between carbon ions and water. These particles included protons, gamma rays, alpha particles, neutrons, and tritons. Subsequently, we studied the relationship between the carbon ion beam and these secondary particles. Interaction Vertex Imaging (IVI) is valuable for monitoring dose distribution in carbon therapy. It provides details about the positions and amounts of secondary particles, particularly protons. The IVI method depends on charged particles produced during ion fragmentation to gather information about the range by reconstructing particle trajectories back to their point of origin, referred to as the vertex. In our simulations regarding carbon ion therapy, we observed a strong correlation between some secondary particles and the range of carbon ions. However, challenges arose due to the target's unique elongated geometry, which hindered the straightforward transmission of forward-generated protons. Consequently, the limited protons that emerged mostly originated from points close to the target entrance. The trajectories of fragments (protons) were approximated as straight lines, and a beam back-projection algorithm, using recorded interaction positions in Si detectors, was developed to reconstruct vertices. The analysis revealed a correlation between the reconstructed and actual positions.

Keywords: radiotherapy, carbon therapy, monitoring of radiation dose, interaction vertex imaging

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Authors: Navneet Kaur, S. D. Tiwari

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Superparamagnetism is an interesting phenomenon and observed in small particles of magnetic materials. It arises due to a reduction in particle size. In the superparamagnetic state, as the thermal energy overcomes magnetic anisotropy energy, the magnetic moment vector of particles flip their magnetization direction between states of minimum energy. Superparamagnetic nanoparticles have been attracting the researchers due to many applications such as information storage, magnetic resonance imaging, biomedical applications, and sensors. For information storage, thermal fluctuations lead to loss of data. So that nanoparticles should have high blocking temperature. And to achieve this, nanoparticles should have a higher magnetic moment and magnetic anisotropy constant. In this work, the magnetic anisotropy constant of the antiferromagnetic nanoparticles system is determined. Magnetic studies on nanoparticles of NiO (nickel oxide) are reported well. This antiferromagnetic nanoparticle system has high blocking temperature and magnetic anisotropy constant of order 105 J/m3. The magnetic study of NiO nanoparticles in the superparamagnetic region is presented. NiO particles of two different sizes, i.e., 6 and 8 nm, are synthesized using the chemical route. These particles are characterized by an x-ray diffractometer, transmission electron microscope, and superconducting quantum interference device magnetometry. The magnetization vs. applied magnetic field and temperature data for both samples confirm their superparamagnetic nature. The blocking temperature for 6 and 8 nm particles is found to be 200 and 172 K, respectively. Magnetization vs. applied magnetic field data of NiO is fitted to an appropriate magnetic expression using a non-linear least square fit method. The role of particle size distribution and magnetic anisotropy is taken in to account in magnetization expression. The source code is written in Python programming language. This fitting provides us the magnetic anisotropy constant for NiO and other magnetic fit parameters. The particle size distribution estimated matches well with the transmission electron micrograph. The value of magnetic anisotropy constants for 6 and 8 nm particles is found to be 1.42 X 105 and 1.20 X 105 J/m3, respectively. The obtained magnetic fit parameters are verified using the Neel model. It is concluded that the effect of magnetic anisotropy should not be ignored while studying the magnetization process of nanoparticles.

Keywords: anisotropy, superparamagnetic, nanoparticle, magnetization

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Authors: Shahla Rostamirad

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Purpose: Giardiasis is a widespread infection in humans caused by Giardia lamblia. The prevalence of this parasite among children in Isfahan of Iran is unknown. This study intended to estimate Giardia lamblia infection prevalence and identify possible associated risk factors in a healthy pediatric population living in the Isfahan, a metropolitan city of Iran. Methods: Between September 2010 and March 2012, 1448 stool sample from children with clinical manifestation that refer to clinical lab in Isfahan city for stool examination were collected and analyzed. About 1218 samples were positive for parasitic disease. All of samples were examined and diagnosed by direct examination and formalin-ether concentration of stools. Results: A total of 1218 positive cases were analyzed in this study. The findings showed that 92.5% of patients were infected by protozoa and 7.5 percent with helminth infection. The highest and lowest rate of infection belongs to Giardia lamblia and Entamoeba histolytica with 75% and 1.1%, respectively. Other infection cases were included of Blastocystys hominis 9.9%, E. coli 6.5%, H. nana 1.3%, Enterobious vermicolaris 4% and Ascaris lumbricoides 2.2% percent. The population studied revealed a gender distribution of 53.2% male and 46.8% female. Age distribution was 57.3% between 0-5 years and 42.7% between 6-15 years.The prevalence was higher among children aged 0-5 years (57.8%), than among older children (42.2%). Conclusion: The prevalence of protozoan parasite, especially Giardiasis, in children residing in the region of Isfahan is high. Several risk factors were associated with this prevalence and highlight the importance of parents' education and sanitation conditions in the children's well being. The association between Giardia lamblia and H. pylori seems an important issue deserving further investigation in order to promote prevention or treatment strategies. Other risk factor include presence of Helicobacter pylori infection, living in houses with own drainage system and reported household, pet contact, especially with cat and dog.

Keywords: Giardia duodenalis, prevalence, risk factors, children, Isfahan, Iran

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Authors: Khalifa Abdunaser, Salem Eljawashi

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Study area is threatened by numerous petroleum activities. The most important risk is associated with dramatic dangers of misuse and oil and gas pollutions, such as significant volumes of produced water, which refers to waste water generated during the production of oil and natural gas and disposed on the surface surrounded oil and gas fields. This work concerns the impact of oil exploration and production activities on the physical and environment fate of the area, focusing on the investigation and observation of crude oil migration as toxic fluid. Its penetration in groundwater resulted from the produced water impacted by oilfield operations disposed to the earth surface in Al Wahat area. Describing the areal distribution of the dominant groundwater quality constituents has been conducted to identify the major hydro-geochemical processes that affect the quality of water and to evaluate the relations between rock types and groundwater flow to the quality and geochemistry of water in Post-Eocene aquifer. The chemical and physical characteristics of produced water, where it is produced, and its potential impacts on the environment and on oil and gas operations have been discussed. Field work survey was conducted to identify and locate a large number of monitoring wells previously drilled throughout the study area. Groundwater samples were systematically collected in order to detect the fate of spills resulting from the various activities at the oil fields in the study area. Spatial distribution maps of the water quality parameters were built using Kriging methods of interpolation in ArcMap software. Thematic maps were generated using GIS and remote sensing techniques, which were applied to include all these data layers as an active database for the area for the purpose of identifying hot spots and prioritizing locations based on their environmental conditions as well as for monitoring plans.

Keywords: Sirt Basin, produced water, Al Wahat area, Ground water

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Authors: U. Thisara G. Perera, C. M. Kanchana N. K. Chandrasekara

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Dengue is an epidemic which is spread by Aedes Egyptai and Aedes Albopictus mosquitoes. The cases of dengue show a dramatic growth rate of the epidemic in urban and semi urban areas spatially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Incidence of dengue has become a prominent reason for hospitalization and deaths in Asian countries, including Sri Lanka. During the last decade the dengue epidemic began to spread from urban to semi-urban and then to rural settings of the country. The highest number of dengue infected patients was recorded in Sri Lanka in the year 2016 and the highest number of patients was identified in Colombo district. Together with the commercial, industrial, and other supporting services, the district suffers from rapid urbanization and high population density. Thus, drainage and waste disposal patterns of the people in this area exert an additional pressure to the environment. The district is situated in the wet zone and thus low lying lands constitute the largest portion of the district. This situation additionally facilitates mosquito breeding sites. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to assess the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of dengue epidemic in Kolonnawa MOH area (Medical Officer of Health) in the district of Colombo. The study was carried out using 615 recorded dengue cases in Kollonnawa MOH area during the south east monsoon season from May to September 2016. The Moran’s I and Kernel density estimation were used as analytical methods. The analysis of data was accomplished through the integrated use of ArcGIS 10.1 software packages along with Microsoft Excel analytical tool. Field observation was also carried out for verification purposes during the study period. Results of the Moran’s I index indicates that the spatial distribution of dengue cases showed a cluster distribution pattern across the area. Kernel density estimation emphasis that dengue cases are high where the population has gathered, especially in areas comprising housing schemes. Results of the Kernel Density estimation further discloses that hot spots of dengue epidemic are located in the western half of the Kolonnawa MOH area, which is close to the Colombo municipal boundary and there is a significant relationship with high population density and unplanned urban land use practices. Results of the field observation confirm that the drainage systems in these areas function poorly and careless waste disposal methods of the people further encourage mosquito breeding sites. This situation has evolved harmfully from a public health issue to a social problem, which ultimately impacts on the economy and social lives of the country.

Keywords: Dengue epidemic, health hazards, Kernel density, Moran’s I, Sri Lanka

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Authors: Saif Ullah, Zaigham Hasan, Muhammad Ali, Qaisar Jamal, Kiran Salahuddin, Muhammad Awais

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Survey of avian fauna of Bara Gali Summer Campus, University of Peshawar situated in Abbottabad was conducted from April to October, 2013. A total of 21 species belonging to 5 orders and 15 families were recorded. Out of these, 6 were resident, 12 summer visitor and 3 rare. Order Passeriformes was represented by 16 species which are Certhia himalayana, Megalaima virens, Phylloscopus trochiloides, Garrulax lineatus, Passer rutilans, Corvus macrorhynchos, Hypsipetes leucocephalus, Acridotheres tristis, Delichon dasypus cashmeriensis, Hirundo rustica, Muscicapa thalassina, Saxicola ferrea, Myiophoneus caeruleus, Parus melonolophus, Parus rufonuchalis, Parus monticolus, belonging to 11 families. Two species Dendrocopos himalayansis and Picus squamatus belong to only one family Picidae of order Piciformes. Among rest of the three orders each is represented by only a single species; Accipitriformes by Accipiter virgatus, Coraciformes by Upupa epops while order Psittaciformes has been represented by Psittacula himalayana. The distribution and abundance varied with season and maximum number of species were found during the monsoon season when most of the birds migrate for breeding. Some habits and behaviors like nesting, feeding, breeding and vocalizations were also studied which are very unique from other birds found at lower elevations. Among bird species adapted to diverse habitat in the field, Himalayan Jungle Crow, Common Mynas, Bulbuls, Barn Swallows, barbets were prominent. Interesting feature of the avian fauna is its familiarity with flora, was also observed during the present studies that some birds are very quick and active in their movement on a tree surface i.e Certhia himalayana.

Keywords: avifauna diversity, distribution, Bara Gali, Abbottabad

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Sharmi Mukherjee, Anindita Chakraborty

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Cellular irradiation incites complex responses including arrest of cell cycle progression. This article accentuates the effects of radiation on cell cycle status of radiation non-targeted cells. Human Hepatoma HepG2 cells were exposed to increasing doses of γ radiations (1, 2, 4, 6 Gy) and their cell culture media was transferred to non-targeted HepG2 cells cultured in other Petri plates. These radiation non-targeted cells cultured in the ICCM (Irradiated cell conditioned media) were the bystander cells on which cell cycle analysis was performed using flow cytometry. An apparent decrease in the distribution of bystander cells at G0/G1 phase was observed with increased radiation doses upto 4 Gy representing a linear relationship. This was accompanied by a gradual increase in cellular distribution at G2/M phase. Interestingly the number of cells in G2/M phase at 1 and 2 Gy irradiation was not significantly different from each other. However, the percentage of G2 phase cells at 4 and 6 Gy doses were significantly higher than 2 Gy dose indicating the IC50 dose to be between 2 and 4 Gy. Cell cycle arrest is an indirect indicator of genotoxic damage in cells. In this study, bystander stress signals through the cell culture media of irradiated cells disseminated the radiation induced DNA damages in the non-targeted cells which resulted in arrest of the cell cycle progression at G2/M phase checkpoint. This implies that actual radiation biological effects represent a penumbra with effects encompassing a larger area than the actual beam. This article highlights the existence of genotoxic damages as bystander effects of γ rays in human Hepatoma cells by cell cycle analysis and opens up avenues for appraisal of bystander stress communications between tumor cells. Contemplation of underlying signaling mechanisms can be manipulated to maximize damaging effects of radiation with minimum dose and thus has therapeutic applications.

Keywords: bystander effect, cell cycle, genotoxic damage, hepatoma

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Aimen Saleh

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The Silurian Lower Acacus sandstone is one of the main reservoirs in North West Libya. Our aim in this study is to grasp a robust understanding of the hydrocarbon potential and distribution in the area. To date, the depositional environment of the Lower Acacus reservoir still open to discussion and contradiction. Henceforth, building three dimensional (3D) property modelling is one way to support the analysis and description of the reservoir, its properties and characterizations, so this will be of great value in this project. The 3D model integrates different data set, these incorporates well logs data, petrophysical reservoir properties and seismic data as well. The finalized depositional environment model of the Lower Acacus concludes that the area is located in a deltaic transitional depositional setting, which ranges from a wave dominated delta into tide dominated delta type. This interpretation carried out through a series of steps of model generation, core description and Formation Microresistivity Image tool (FMI) interpretation. After the analysis of the core data, the Lower Acacus layers shows a strong effect of tidal energy. Whereas these traces found imprinted in different types of sedimentary structures, for examples; presence of some crossbedding, such as herringbones structures, wavy and flaser cross beddings. In spite of recognition of some minor marine transgression events in the area, on the contrary, the coarsening upward cycles of sand and shale layers in the Lower Acacus demonstrate presence of a major regressive phase of the sea level. However, consequently, we produced a final package of this model in a complemented set of facies distribution, porosity and oil presence. And also it shows the record of the petroleum system, and the procedure of Hydrocarbon migration and accumulation. Finally, this model suggests that the area can be outlined into three main segments of hydrocarbon potential, which can be a textbook guide for future exploration and production strategies in the area.

Keywords: Acacus, Ghadames , Libya, Silurian

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: E Tambo, O. O. Olalubi, E. C. Ugwu, J. Y. Ngogang

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Despite the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of international health emergency concern, the status quo of responses and efforts to stem the worst-recorded Ebola epidemic Ebola outbreak is still precariously inadequate in most of the affected in West. Mining natural resources have been shown to play a key role in both motivating and fuelling ethnic, civil and armed conflicts that have plagued a number of African countries over the last decade. Revenues from the exploitation of natural resources are not only used in sustaining the national economy but also armies, personal enrichment and building political support. Little is documented on the mining and ecological impact on the emergence and geographical distribution of Ebola in Africa over time and space. We aimed to provide a better understanding of the interconnectedness among issues of mining natural, resource management, mining conflict and post-conflict on Ebola outbreak and how wealth generated from abundant natural resources could be better managed in promoting research and development towards strengthening environmental, socioeconomic and health systems sustainability on Ebola outbreak and other emerging diseases surveillance and responses systems prevention and control, early warning alert, durable peace and sustainable development rather than to fuel conflicts, resurgence and emerging diseases epidemics in the perspective of community and national/regional approach. Our results showed the first assessment of systematic impact of all major minerals conflict events diffusion over space and time and mining activities on nine Ebola genesis and geo-distribution in affected countries across Africa. We demonstrate how, where and when mining activities in Africa increase ecological degradation, conflicts at the local level and then spreads violence across territory and time by enhancing the financial capacities of fighting groups/ethnics and diseases onset. In addition, led process of developing minimum standards for natural resource governance; improving governmental and civil society capacity for natural resource management, including the strengthening of monitoring and enforcement mechanisms; understanding the post-mining and conflicts community or national reconstruction and rehabilitation programmes in strengthening or developing community health systems and regulatory mechanisms. In addition the quest for the control over these resources and illegal mining across the landscape forest incursion provided increase environmental and ecological instability and displacement and disequilibrium, therefore affecting the intensity and duration of mining and conflict/wars and episode of Ebola outbreaks over time and space. We highlight the key findings and lessons learnt in promoting country or community-led process in transforming natural resource wealth from a peace liability to a peace asset. The imperative necessity for advocacy and through facilitating intergovernmental deliberations on critical issues and challenges affecting Africa community transforming exploitation of natural resources from a peace liability to outbreak prevention and control. The vital role of mining in increasing government revenues and expenditures, equitable distribution of wealth and health to all stakeholders, in particular local communities requires coordination, cooperative leadership and partnership in fostering sustainable developmental initiatives from mining context to outbreak and other infectious diseases surveillance responses systems in prevention and control, and judicious resource management.

Keywords: mining, mining conflicts, mines, ecological, Ebola, outbreak, mining companies, miners, impact

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Gebreslassie Gebru, Gurja Belay, Minister Birhanie, Mulalem Zenebe, Tadelle Dessie, Adriana Vallejo-Trujillo, Olivier Hanotte

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Livestock must adapt to changing environmental conditions, which can result in either phenotypic plasticity or irreversible phenotypic change. In this study, we combine Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) and Phenotypic Distribution Modelling (PDM) to provide a comprehensive framework for understanding the ecological and phenotypic characteristics of indigenous chicken (Gallus gallus domesticus) ecotypes. This approach helped us to classify these ecotypes, differentiate their phenotypic traits, and identify associations between environmental variables and adaptive traits. We measured 297 adult indigenous chickens from various agro-ecologies, including 208 females and 89 males. A subset of the 22 measured traits was selected using stepwise selection, resulting in seven traits for each sex. Using ENM, we identified four agro-ecologies potentially harbouring distinct phenotypes of indigenous Tigray chickens. However, PDM classified these chickens into three phenotypical ecotypes. Chickens grouped in ecotype-1 and ecotype-3 exhibited superior adaptive traits compared to those in ecotype-2, with significant variance observed. This high variance suggests a broader range of trait expression within these ecotypes, indicating greater adaptation capacity and potentially more diverse genetic characteristics. Several environmental variables, such as soil clay content, forest cover, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter, were strongly associated with most phenotypic traits. This suggests that these environmental factors play a role in shaping the observed phenotypic variations. By integrating ENM and PDM, this study enhances our understanding of indigenous chickens' ecological and phenotypic diversity. It also provides valuable insights into their conservation and management in response to environmental changes.

Keywords: adaptive traits, agro-ecology, appendage, climate, environment, imagej, morphology, phenotypic variation

Procedia PDF Downloads 34

Authors: Ahmed Abdullah Ahmed

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The task of recognizing the writer of a handwritten text has been an attractive research problem in the document analysis and recognition community with applications in handwriting forensics, paleography, document examination and handwriting recognition. This research presents an automatic method for writer recognition from digitized images of unconstrained writings. Although a great effort has been made by previous studies to come out with various methods, their performances, especially in terms of accuracy, are fallen short, and room for improvements is still wide open. The proposed technique employs optimal codebook based writer characterization where each writing sample is represented by a set of features computed from two codebooks, beginning and ending. Unlike most of the classical codebook based approaches which segment the writing into graphemes, this study is based on fragmenting a particular area of writing which are beginning and ending strokes. The proposed method starting with contour detection to extract significant information from the handwriting and the curve fragmentation is then employed to categorize the handwriting into Beginning and Ending zones into small fragments. The similar fragments of beginning strokes are grouped together to create Beginning cluster, and similarly, the ending strokes are grouped to create the ending cluster. These two clusters lead to the development of two codebooks (beginning and ending) by choosing the center of every similar fragments group. Writings under study are then represented by computing the probability of occurrence of codebook patterns. The probability distribution is used to characterize each writer. Two writings are then compared by computing distances between their respective probability distribution. The evaluations carried out on ICFHR standard dataset of 206 writers using Beginning and Ending codebooks separately. Finally, the Ending codebook achieved the highest identification rate of 98.23%, which is the best result so far on ICFHR dataset.

Keywords: off-line text-independent writer identification, feature extraction, codebook, fragments

Procedia PDF Downloads 512

Authors: Violina Angelova

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A comparative study has been carried out into the impact of organic meliorants on the uptake of heavy metals, micro and macroelements and the phytoremediation potential of enhanced tobacco BAC F3. The soil used as part of this experiment was sampled from the vicinity of the Non-Ferrous-Metal Works near Plovdiv, Bulgaria. The pot experiment carried out consisted of a randomized, complete block design containing nine treatments and three replications (27 pots). The treatments consisted of a control (with no organic meliorants) and compost and vermicompost meliorants (added at 5%, 10%, 15%, and 30%, and recalculated based on their dry soil weight). Upon reaching commercial ripeness, the tobacco plants were gathered. Heavy metals, micro and macroelement contents in roots, stems, and leaves of tobacco were analyzed by the method of the microwave mineralization. To determine the elements in the samples, inductively coupled emission spectrometry (Jobin Yvon Emission - JY 38 S, France) was used. The distribution of the heavy metals, micro, and macroelements in the organs of the enhanced tobacco has a selective character and depended above all on the parts of the plants and the element that was examined. Pb, Zn, Cu, Fe, Mn, P and Mg distribution in tobacco decreases in the following order: roots > leaves > stems, and for Cd, K, and Ca - leaves > roots > stems. The high concentration of Cd in the leaves and the high translocation factor indicate the possibility of enhanced tobacco to be used in phytoextraction. Tested organic amendments significantly influenced the uptake of heavy metals, micro and macroelements by the roots, stems, and leaves of tobacco. A correlation was found between the quantity of the mobile forms and the uptake of Pb, Zn, and Cd by the enhanced tobacco. The compost and vermicompost treatments significantly reduced heavy metals concentration in leaves and increased uptake of K, Ca and Mg. The 30% compost and 30% vermicompost treatments led to the maximal reduction of heavy metals in enhanced tobacco BAC F3. The addition of compost and vermicompost further reduces the ability to digest the heavy metals in the leaves, and phytoremediation potential of enhanced tobacco BAC F3. Acknowledgment: The financial support by the Bulgarian National Science Fund Project DFNI Н04/9 is greatly appreciated.

Keywords: heavy metals, micro and macroelements, enhanced tobacco BAC F3, phytoremediation, organic meliorants

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Afsane Amiri

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Electric Vehicle (EV) technology is expected to take a major share in the light-vehicle market in the coming decades. Charging of EVs will put an extra burden on the distribution grid and in some cases adjustments will need to be made. In this paper a review of different plug-in and vehicle to grid (V2G) capable vehicles are given along with their power electronics topologies. The economic implication of charging the vehicle or sending power back to the utility is described in brief.

Keywords: energy storage system, battery unit, cost, optimal sizing, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), smart grid

Procedia PDF Downloads 601

Authors: J. Hrabovský, M. Chabičovský, J. Horský

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Water spray cooling is a technique typically used in heat treatment and other metallurgical processes where controlled temperature regimes are required. Water spray cooling is used in static (without movement) or dynamic (with movement of the steel plate) regimes. The static regime is notable for the fixed position of the hot steel plate and fixed spray nozzle. This regime is typical for quenching systems focused on heat treatment of the steel plate. The second application of spray cooling is the dynamic regime. The dynamic regime is notable for its static section cooling system and moving steel plate. This regime is used in rolling and finishing mills. The fixed position of cooling sections with nozzles and the movement of the steel plate produce nonhomogeneous water distribution on the steel plate. The length of cooling sections and placement of water nozzles in combination with the nonhomogeneity of water distribution leads to discontinued or interrupted cooling conditions. The impact of static and dynamic regimes on cooling intensity and the heat transfer coefficient during the cooling process of steel plates is an important issue. Heat treatment of steel is accompanied by oxide scale growth. The oxide scale layers can significantly modify the cooling properties and intensity during the cooling. The combination of the static and dynamic (section) regimes with the variable thickness of the oxide scale layer on the steel surface impact the final cooling intensity. The study of the influence of the oxide scale layers with different cooling regimes was carried out using experimental measurements and numerical analysis. The experimental measurements compared both types of cooling regimes and the cooling of scale-free surfaces and oxidized surfaces. A numerical analysis was prepared to simulate the cooling process with different conditions of the section and samples with different oxide scale layers.

Keywords: heat transfer coefficient, numerical analysis, oxide layer, spray cooling

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Basave Gowda, Lokesh K., Prasanth S. M., Bellad S. B., Radha J., Lokesh G. Y., Patil S. B., Vijayakumar D. K., Ganigar B. S., Rakesh C. Mathad

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Quality seed plays an important role in enhancing the crop productivity. It was reported and confirmed by large scale verification research trials that by use of quality seeds alone, the crop yield can be enhanced by 15 to 20 per cent. At present, the quality seed production and distribution through organised sectors comprising both public and private seed sector was only 20-25% of the requirement and the remaining quantity is met through unorganised sector which include the farmer to farmers saved seeds. With an objective of developing an alternative seed system, the University of Agricultural Sciences, Raichur in Karnataka state has implemented Seed Village Programme in more than 100 villages covering around 5000 farmers every year since 2009-10 and in the selected seed villages, a group of 50-150 farmers were supplied the foundation seeds of new varieties to an extent of 0.4 ha at 50 % subsidy. And two to three training programmes were conducted in the targeted villages for quality seed production and the seed produced in the target group was processed locally in the university seed processing units and arranged for distribution in the local villages by the seed growers themselves. By this new innovative and modified seed system, the university can able to replace old varieties of pigeon pea and green gram by producing 1482, 2978, 2729, 2560, and 4581 tonnes of seeds of new varieties on large scale under farmers and scientists participatory seed village programmes respectively during 2009-10, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14. From this new alternate model of seed system, there should be large scale promotion of regional seed system involving farmers, NGO and voluntary organisation for quick and effective replacement of old, low yielding, disease susceptible varieties with new high yielding, disease resistant for enhanced food production and food security.

Keywords: seed system, seed village, seed replacement, varietal replacement

Procedia PDF Downloads 431

Authors: P. Caimmi, E. Bele, A. Abolfathi

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Lattice materials are cellular structures composed of a periodic network of beams. They offer high weight-specific mechanical properties and lend themselves to numerous weight-sensitive applications. The periodic internal structure responds to external vibrations through characteristic frequency bandgaps, making these materials suitable for the reduction of noise and vibration. However, the deviation from architectural homogeneity, due to, e.g., manufacturing imperfections, has a strong influence on the mechanical properties and vibration response of these materials. In this work, we present results on the influence of geometric imperfections on the vibration response of hexagonal lattices. Three classes of geometrical variables are used: the characteristics of the architecture (relative density, ligament length/cell size ratio), imperfection type (degree of non-periodicity, cracks, hard inclusions) and defect morphology (size, distribution). Test specimens with controlled size and distribution of imperfections are manufactured through selective laser sintering. The Frequency Response Functions (FRFs) in the form of accelerance are measured, and the modal shapes are captured through a high-speed camera. The finite element method is used to provide insights on the extension of these results to semi-infinite lattices. An updating procedure is conducted to increase the reliability of numerical simulation results compared to experimental measurements. This is achieved by updating the boundary conditions and material stiffness. Variations in FRFs of periodic structures due to changes in the relative density of the constituent unit cell are analysed. The effects of geometric imperfections on the dynamic response of periodic structures are investigated. The findings can be used to open up the opportunity for tailoring these lattice materials to achieve optimal amplitude attenuations at specific frequency ranges.

Keywords: lattice architectures, geometric imperfections, vibration attenuation, experimental modal analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Yiyuan Tao

Abstract:

Under the impact of global warming together with the intensification of human activities, the hydrological regimes may be altered, and the traditional stationary assumption was no longer satisfied. However, most of the current design standards of water infrastructures were still based on the hypothesis of stationarity, which may inevitably result in severe biases. Many critical impacts of climate on ecosystems, society, and the economy are controlled by extreme events rather than mean values. Therefore, it is of great significance to identify the non-stationarity of precipitation extremes and model the precipitation extremes in a nonstationary framework. The Wei River Basin (WRB), located in a continental monsoon climate zone in China, is selected as a case study in this study. Six extreme precipitation indices were employed to investigate the changing patterns and stationarity of precipitation extremes in the WRB. To identify if precipitation extremes are stationary, the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettitt test, which is used to examine the occurrence of abrupt changes are adopted in this study. Extreme precipitation indices series are fitted with non-stationary distributions that selected from six widely used distribution functions: Gumbel, lognormal, Weibull, gamma, generalized gamma and exponential distributions by means of the time-varying moments model generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS), where the distribution parameters are defined as a function of time. The results indicate that: (1) the trends were not significant for the whole WRB, but significant positive/negative trends were still observed in some stations, abrupt changes for consecutive wet days (CWD) mainly occurred in 1985, and the assumption of stationarity is invalid for some stations; (2) for these nonstationary extreme precipitation indices series with significant positive/negative trends, the GAMLSS models are able to capture well the temporal variations of the indices, and perform better than the stationary model. Finally, the differences between the quantiles of nonstationary and stationary models are analyzed, which highlight the importance of nonstationary modeling of precipitation extremes in the WRB.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, GAMLSSS, non-stationary, Wei River Basin

Procedia PDF Downloads 124