Search results for: foreign exchange supply

Authors: Dae-Hee Son, Soon-Ryul Nam

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The power system frequency falls when disturbance such as rapid increase of system load or loss of a generating unit occurs in power systems. Especially, increase in the number of renewable generating units has a bad influence on the power system because of loss of generating unit depending on the circumstance. Conventional technologies use frequency droop control battery output for the frequency regulation and balance between supply and demand. If power is supplied using the fast output characteristic of the battery, power system stability can be further more improved. To improve the power system stability, we propose battery output control using ROCOF (Rate of Change of Frequency) in this paper. The bigger the power difference between the supply and the demand, the bigger the ROCOF drops. Battery output is controlled proportionally to the magnitude of the ROCOF, allowing for faster response to power imbalances. To simulate the control method of battery output system, we develop the user defined model using PSS/E and confirm that power system stability is improved by comparing with frequency droop control.

Keywords: PSS/E user defined model, power deviation, frequency droop control, ROCOF (rate of change of frequency)

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Alessandro Suardi, Rodolfo Picchio, Domenico Coaloa, Maria Bonaventura Forleo, Nadia Palmieri, Luigi Pari

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The reconversion process of the Italian sugar supply chain to bio-energy supply chains, as a result of the 2006 Sugar CMO reform, have involved research to define the best logistics, the most adapted energy crops for the Italian territory and their sustainability. Rapeseed (Brassica napus L.), Giant reed (Arundo donax L.) and Poplar (Poplar ssp.) are energy crops considered strategic for the development of Italian energy supply-chains. This study analyzed the environmental and the economic impacts on the farm level of these three energy crops. The environmental assessment included six farming units, two per crop, which were extracted from a sample of 251 rapeseed farm units (2751 ha), 7 giant reed farm units (7.8 ha), and 91 poplar farm units (440 ha) using a statistical multivariate analysis. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) research method has been used to evaluate and compare the sustainability of the agricultural phases of the crops studied. The impact analyses have been performed at mid-point and end-point levels. The results of the analysis shown that the fertilization, is the major source of environmental impact of the agricultural phase due to the production of the fertilizers and the soil emissions of GHG following the treatment. The perennial energy crops studied (Arundo donax L., Poplar ssp.) were environmentally more sustainable if compared with the annual crop (Brassica napus L.) for all the impact categories at mid-point and end-point levels analyzed. The most relevant impact category influenced by the agricultural process result the fossil depletion, mainly due to the fossil fuels consumed during the mineral fertilizers production (urea). Human health was the most affected damage category at the end point level. Poplar result the energy crop with the best environmental performance for the Italian territory, in the distribution areas most suitable for its cultivation.

Keywords: LCA, energy crops, rapeseed, giant reed, poplar

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Authors: Seada Hussen, Frie Ayalew

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Integrating different energy resources, like solar PV and hydro, is used to ensure reliable power to rural communities like Hara village in Ethiopia. Hybrid power system offers power supply for rural villages by providing an alternative supply for the intermittent nature of renewable energy resources. The intermittent nature of renewable energy resources is a challenge to electrifying rural communities in a sustainable manner with solar resources. Major rural villages in Ethiopia are suffering from a lack of electrification, that cause our people to suffer deforestation, travel for long distance to fetch water, and lack good services like clinic and school sufficiently. The main objective of this project is to provide a balanced, stable, reliable supply for Hara village, Ethiopia using solar power with a pumped hydro energy storage system. The design of this project starts by collecting data from villages and taking solar irradiance data from NASA. In addition to this, geographical arrangement and location are also taken into consideration. After collecting this, all data analysis and cost estimation or optimal sizing of the system and comparison of solar with pumped hydro and solar with battery storage system is done using Homer Software. And since solar power only works in the daytime and pumped hydro works at night time and also at night and morning, both load will share to cover the load demand; this need controller designed to control multiple switch and scheduling in this project fuzzy logic controller is used to control this scenario. The result of the simulation shows that solar with pumped hydro energy storage system achieves good results than with a battery storage system since the comparison is done considering storage reliability, cost, storage capacity, life span, and efficiency.

Keywords: pumped hydro storage, solar energy, solar PV, battery energy storage, fuzzy logic controller

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Authors: Dimeji Abe, Nonso Okoye, Gideon Ikpimi, Prince Idemudia

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Multi-reservoir optimization operation has been a critical issue for river basin management. Water, as a scarce resource, is in high demand and the problems associated with the reservoir as its storage facility are enormous. The complexity in balancing the supply and demand of this prime resource has created the need to examine the best way to solve the problem using optimization techniques. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the multi-objective meta-heuristic algorithm for the operation of Gariep Dam for satisfying ecological flow requirements. This study uses an evolutionary algorithm called backtrack search algorithm (BSA) to determine the best way to optimise the dam operations of hydropower production, flood control, and water supply without affecting the environmental flow requirement for the survival of aquatic bodies and sustain life downstream of the dam. To achieve this objective, the operations of the dam that corresponds to different tradeoffs between the objectives are optimized. The results indicate the best model from the algorithm that satisfies all the objectives without any constraint violation. It is expected that hydropower generation will be improved and more water will be available for ecological flow requirements with the use of the algorithm. This algorithm also provides farmers with more irrigation water as well to improve their business.

Keywords: BSA evolutionary algorithm, metaheuristics, optimization, river basin management

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Authors: Abeer Amayri, Akif A. Bulgak

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Due to today’s globalization as well as outsourcing practices of the companies, the Supply Chain (SC) performances have become more dependent on the efficient movement of material among places that are geographically dispersed, where there is more chance for disruptions. One such disruption is the quality and delivery uncertainties of outsourcing. These uncertainties could lead the products to be unsafe and, as is the case in a number of recent examples, companies may have to end up in recalling their products. As a result of these problems, there is a need to develop a methodology for selecting suppliers globally in view of risks associated with low quality and late delivery. Accordingly, we developed a two-stage stochastic model that captures the risks associated with uncertainty in quality and delivery as well as a solution procedure for the model. The stochastic model developed simultaneously optimizes supplier selection and purchase quantities under price discounts over a time horizon. In particular, our target is the study of global organizations with multiple sites and multiple overseas suppliers, where the pricing is offered in suppliers’ local currencies. Our proposed methodology is applied to a case study for a US automotive company having two assembly plants and four potential global suppliers to illustrate how the proposed model works in practice.

Keywords: global supply chains, quality, stochastic programming, supplier selection

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Authors: Friba Haidari

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The aim of the study is to identify Russia's role in managing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict betweenArmenia and Azerbaijan during the years 1990 to 2020. The Nagorno-Karabakh crisis can not be considered a mere territorial conflict but also a crossroads of interests of foreign actors. Geopolitical rivalries and the access to energy by regional and trans-regional actors have complicated the crisis and created a security challenge in the region, which is likely to escalate into a full-blown war between the parties involved. The geopolitical situation of Nagorno-Karabakh and its current situation have affected all peripheral states in some way. Russia, as one of the main actors in this scene, has been actively involved since the beginning of the crisis. The Russians have always sought to strengthen their influence and presence in the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. Russia's efforts to weaken the role of the Minsk Group, The presence of Western actors, and the deployment of Russian forces in the disputed area can be assessed in this context. However, this study seeks to answer the question of what role did Russia play in managing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan between 1990 and 2020? The study hypothesizes that Russia has prevented the escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through mediation and some coercion. This study is divided into four parts, including conflict management as a theoretical framework; Examining the competition and the role of actors in the Caucasus region, especially the role of the Minsk Group, and what approach or tools and methods Russia has used in its foreign policy in managing the conflict, and finally what are the relations between the countries involved and what will be Russia's role in the future? Was discussed. This study examines the analysis and transfer of ideas and information using authoritative international sources with an explanatory method and shares its results with everyone.

Keywords: Russia, conflict, nagorno-karabakh, management

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Authors: Noureddine Radouai

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Corruption is an endemic phenomenon in many countries around the globe. Morocco, as an authoritarian regime, relies on corruption for monarchy survival. I analyze the Makhzen structure and methods that it follows to exchange corruption for political loyalty. The abuse of power in Morocco is sponsored by the monarch itself as it is its way to remain its importance in the regime.

Keywords: corruption, Clientelism, authoritarian regime, Morocco

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Authors: Begzod Nishanov, Farhod Karimov

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Globalization and the internet have completely changed the way in which businesses operate as well as has equipped customers with endless potential. Today, consumers’ product choice is not only affected by branding, price and quality of the product, but also by the country-of-origin information. Precisely, ‘Made In’ label is considered as one of the driving factors which directly impact on consumers’ preferences. Generally, it is obvious that products manufactured in less developed countries are considered to be of lower quality and riskier compared to the products made in developed countries. In this regard, it is worth to note that this phenomenon is mainly applicable to western developed countries. However, there is a lack of empirical research on underlying the influence of country-of-origin phenomenon in emerging economies such as Uzbekistan. Today, Uzbek market is being dominated by growing number of foreign made products. Uzbek manufacturers are facing intense competition not only from local producers but also from the availability of foreign goods suppliers. Consequently, consumers are given wider choice of products than ever before. In this regard, it is important to define the importance of country-of-origin information in order to understand Uzbek consumers’ preference. The methodology of the research is formulated based on the methodology of previous papers. A total 527 online questionnaires were completed. Data analysis was conducted using factor analysis and analysis of variance test (ANOVA). Findings of the research support the view that Uzbek consumers attach great importance to the country-of-origin information of products. Precisely, it can be stated that Uzbek people perceive product quality by its ‘Made in...’ label, especially when buying high involvement goods such as car or refrigerator. Another findings of the paper show that products manufactured in developed countries including Germany, Japan and USA are found to be of high quality, while products manufactured in less developed countries are considered to be of lower quality. Marketers can use this information for segmentation purposes. For example, products manufactured in less developed countries can be targeted for low-to-middle income families while goods manufactured in developed countries can be targeted for higher income families. In conclusion, it can be stated that perceived product quality of products that are made in Uzbekistan has slightly increased since 18 years. It implies that nowadays products under ‘Made in Uzbekistan’ label is continually becoming available to many consumers in foreign markets, especially among Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. Therefore, conducting further research to explore the phenomenon of country-of-origin information and perceived product quality in emerging markets is of paramount importance.

Keywords: country-of-origin, consumer behavior, product evaluation, perceived quality

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Authors: Samir Kumar Pal

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Background: Targeted rapid degradation of bilirubin has the potential to thwart incipient bilirubin encephalopathy. Uncontrolled hyperbilirubinemia is a potential problem in developing countries, including India, because of the lack of reliable healthcare institutes for conventional phototherapy. In India, most of the rural subjects duel in the exchange limit during transport, leading to a risk of kernicterus when they arrive at the treatment centre. Thus, an alternative pharmaceutical agent is needed for the hours. Objective: Exploration of a distinct therapeutic strategy for the control of neonatal hyperbilirubinemia compared to conventional phototherapy in a clinical setting. Method: We synthesized, characterized and investigated a spinel-structured Manganese citrate nanocomplex (C-Mn₃O₄ NC, the nanodrug) along with conventional phototherapy in neonatal subjects. We have also observed BIND scores in order to assess neurological dysfunctions. Results: Our observational study clearly reveals that the rate of declination of bilirubin in neonatal subjects with nanodrug oral administration and phototherapy is faster compared to that in the case of phototherapy only. The associated neural dysfunctions were also found to be significantly lower in the case of combined therapy. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that combined therapy works better than conventional phototherapy only for the control of hyperbilirubinemia. We have observed that a significant portion of neonatal subjects requiring blood exchange has been prevented with the combined therapeutic strategy. Further compilation of a drug-safety-dossier is warranted to translate this novel therapeutic chemo preventive approach to clinical settings.

Keywords: nanodrug, nanoparticle, Neonatal hyperbilirubinemia, alternative to phototherapy, redox modulation, redox medicine

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Authors: Deepika Joshi

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Operations in automotive industry rely greatly on information shared between Supply Chain (SC) partners. This leads to efficient and effective management of SC activity. Automotive sector in India is growing at 14.2 percent per annum and has huge economic importance. We find that no study has been carried out on the role of information sharing in SC management of Indian automotive manufacturers. Considering this research gap, the present study is planned to establish the significance of information sharing in Indian auto-component supply chain activity. An empirical research was conducted for large scale auto component manufacturers from India. Twenty four Supply Chain Performance Indicators (SCPIs) were collected from existing literature. These elements belong to eight diverse but internally related areas of SC management viz., demand management, cost, technology, delivery, quality, flexibility, buyer-supplier relationship, and operational factors. A pair-wise comparison and an open ended questionnaire were designed using these twenty four SCPIs. The questionnaire was then administered among managerial level employees of twenty-five auto-component manufacturing firms. Analytic Network Process (ANP) technique was used to analyze the response of pair-wise questionnaire. Finally, twenty-five priority indexes are developed, one for each respondent. These were averaged to generate an industry specific priority index. The open-ended questions depicted strategies related to information sharing between buyers and suppliers and their influence on supply chain performance. Results show that the impact of information sharing on certain performance indicators is relatively greater than their corresponding variables. For example, flexibility, delivery, demand and cost related elements have massive impact on information sharing. Technology is relatively less influenced by information sharing but it immensely influence the quality of information shared. Responses obtained from managers reveal that timely and accurate information sharing lowers the cost, increases flexibility and on-time delivery of auto parts, therefore, enhancing the competitiveness of Indian automotive industry. Any flaw in dissemination of information can disturb the cycle time of both the parties and thus increases the opportunity cost. Due to supplier’s involvement in decisions related to design of auto parts, quality conformance is found to improve, leading to reduction in rejection rate. Similarly, mutual commitment to share right information at right time between all levels of SC enhances trust level. SC partners share information to perform comprehensive quality planning to ingrain total quality management. This study contributes to operations management literature which faces scarcity of empirical examination on this subject. It views information sharing as a building block which firms can promote and evolve to leverage the operational capability of all SC members. It will provide insights for Indian managers and researchers as every market is unique and suppliers and buyers are driven by local laws, industry status and future vision. While major emphasis in this paper is given to SC operations happening between domestic partners, placing more focus on international SC can bring in distinguished results.

Keywords: Indian auto component industry, information sharing, operations management, supply chain performance indicators

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Authors: M. Abu Hanif, Anika Tabassum, Fuad Hasan Ovi, Ishrat Islam

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Water is essential for life. Enormous quantities of water are cycled each year through hydrologic cycle but only a fraction of circulated water is available each year for human use. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh is the 19th mega city in the world with a population of over 14 million (World City Information, 2011). As a result the growth of urban population is increasing rapidly; the city is not able to manage with altering situations due to resource limitations and management capacity. Water crisis has become an acute problem faced by the inhabitants of Dhaka city. It is found that total water demand in Dhaka city is 2,240 million liter per day (MLD) whereas supply is 2,150 (MLD). According to Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority about 87 percent of this supply comes from groundwater resources and rest 13 percent from surface water. According to Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority it has been found that the current groundwater depletion rate is 3.52 meter per year. Such a fast depletion of the water table will result in intrusion of southern saline water into the groundwater reservoir, depriving this mega city of pure drinking water. This study mainly focus on the potential of Rainwater Harvesting System(RWHS) in Kazipara area of Dhaka city, determine the perception level of local people in installation of rainwater harvesting system in their building and identify the factors regarding willingness of owner in installing rainwater harvesting system. As most of the residential area of Dhaka city is unplanned with small plots, Kazipara area has been chosen as study area which depicts similar characteristics. In this study only roof top area is considered as catchment area and potential of rainwater harvesting has been calculated. From the calculation it is found that harvested rainwater can serve the 66% of demand of water for toilet flushing and cleaning purposes for the people of Kazipara. It is also observed that if only rooftop rainwater harvesting applied to all the structures of the study area then two third of surface runoff would be reduced than present surface runoff. In determining the perception of local people only owners of the buildings were. surveyed. From the questionnaire survey it is found that around 75% people have no idea about the rainwater harvesting system. About 83% people are not willing to install rainwater harvesting system in their dwelling. The reasons behind the unwillingness are high cost of installation, inadequate space, ignorance about the system, etc. Among 16% of the willing respondents who are interested in installing RWHS system, it was found that higher income, bigger size of buildings are important factors in willingness of installing rainwater harvesting system. Majority of the respondents demanded for both technical and economical support to install the system in their buildings. Government of Bangladesh has taken some initiatives to promote rainwater harvesting in urban areas. It is very much necessary to incorporate rainwater harvesting device and artificial recharge system in every building of Dhaka city to make Dhaka city self sufficient in water supply management and to solve water crisis problem of megacity like as Dhaka city.

Keywords: rainwater harvesting, water table, willingness, storm water

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Authors: Guannan Ren, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani

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Electric vehicle battery recycling has emerged as a critical process in the transition toward sustainable transportation. As the demand for electric vehicles continues to rise, so does the need to address the end-of-life management of their batteries. Electric vehicle battery recycling benefits resource recovery and supply chain stability by reclaiming valuable metals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite. The reclaimed materials can then be reintroduced into the battery manufacturing process, reducing the reliance on raw material extraction and the environmental impacts of waste. Current battery recycling rates are insufficient to meet the growing demands for raw materials. While significant progress has been made in electric vehicle battery recycling, many areas can still improve. Standardization of battery designs, increased collection and recycling infrastructures, and improved efficiency in recycling processes are essential for scaling up recycling efforts and maximizing material recovery. This work delves into key factors, such as regulatory frameworks, economic incentives, and technological processes, that influence the cost-effectiveness and efficiency of battery recycling systems. A system dynamics model that considers variables such as battery production rates, demand and price fluctuations, recycling infrastructure capacity, and the effectiveness of recycling processes is created to study how these variables are interconnected, forming feedback loops that affect the overall supply chain efficiency. Such a model can also help simulate the effects of stricter regulations on battery disposal, incentives for recycling, or investments in research and development for battery designs and advanced recycling technologies. By using the developed model, policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers may gain insights into the effects of applying different policies or process updates on electric vehicle battery recycling rates.

Keywords: environmental engineering, modeling and simulation, circular economy, sustainability, transportation science, policy

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Authors: Hassan Samadi, Mustapha El Jarroudi

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In this work, we consider the homogenization of a non-linear problem in periodic medium with two periodic connected media exchanging a heat flux throughout their common interface. The interfacial exchange coefficient λ is assumed to tend to zero or to infinity following a rate λ=λ(ε) when the size ε of the basic cell tends to zero. Three homogenized problems are determined according to some critical value depending of λ and ε. Our method is based on Γ-Convergence techniques.

Keywords: variational methods, epiconvergence, homogenization, convergence technique

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Authors: Hadi Mousavi, Majid Davoudi Nasr

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Executives can maximize profits by recognizing the factors that affect investment and using them to obtain the optimal level of investment. Inefficient markets have shortcomings that can impact the optimal level of investment, leading to the process of over-investment or under-investment. In the present study, the relationship between the overconfidence of senior managers and abnormal cash fluctuations with respect to financial flexibility in companies listed in the Tehran stock exchange from 2009 to 2013 were evaluated. In this study, the sample consists of 84 companies selected by a systematic elimination method and 420 year-companies in total. In this research, EVIEWS software was used to test the research hypotheses by linear regression and correlation coefficient and after designing and testing the research hypothesis. After designing and testing research hypotheses that have been used to each hypothesis, it was concluded that there was a significant relationship between the overconfidence of senior managers and abnormal cash fluctuations, and this relationship was not significant at any level of financial flexibility. Moreover, the findings of the research showed that there was a significant relationship between senior manager’s overconfidence and positive abnormal cash flow fluctuations in firms, and this relationship is significant only at the level of companies with high financial flexibility. Finally, the results indicate that there is no significant relationship between senior managers 'overconfidence and negative cash flow abnormalities, and the relationship between senior managers' overconfidence and negative cash flow fluctuations at the level of companies with high financial flexibility was confirmed.

Keywords: abnormal cash fluctuations, overconfidence of senior managers, financial flexibility, accounting

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Authors: Kanzumba Kusakana

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The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is currently experiencing a general energy crisis due to lack of proper investment and management in the energy sector. 93, 6% of the country is highly dependent on wood fuels as main source of energy having severe impacts such as deforestation and general degradation of the environment. On the other hand, the major share of the electricity produced mainly from ill-conditioned hydro and thermal power stations is principally used to supply the industrial sector as well as very few urban areas. Nevertheless, DRC possesses huge potential in renewable resources such as hydropower, biomass, methane gas, solar geothermal and moderate wind potential that can be used for energy generation. Recently the country has initiated projects to build decentralized micro hydropower station to supply remotes and isolated areas; to rehabilitate its existent main hydropower plants and transmission lines as well as to extend its current generation capacity by building new hydropower stations able to respond to a major part of the African continent energy needs. This paper presents a comprehensive review of current energy resources as well as of the electricity situation in DRC. Recent energy projects, the energy policy as well as the energy challenges in the DRC are also presented.

Keywords: energy, biomass, hydro power, renewable energy, energy policy, Democratic Republic of Congo

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Authors: Faruk Inaltekin, Imran Gurakan

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This paper will aim to discuss the importance of value-added services provided by Science and Technology Parks for entrepreneurship development in Turkey. Entrepreneurship is vital subject for all countries. It has not only fostered economic development but also promoted innovation at local and international levels. To foster high tech entrepreneurship ecosystem, Technopark (Science and Technology Park/STP) concept was initiated with the establishment of Silicon Valley in the 1950s. The success and rise of Silicon Valley led to the spread of technopark activities. Developed economies have been setting up projects to plan and build STPs since the 1960s and 1970s. To promote the establishment of STPs, necessary legislations were made by Ministry of Science, Industry, and Technology in 2001, Technology Development Zones Law (No. 4691) and it has been revised in 2016 to provide more supports. STPs’ basic aim is to provide customers high-quality office spaces with various 'value added services' such as business development, network connections, cooperation programs, investor/customers meetings and internationalization services. For this aim, STPs should help startups deal with difficulties in the early stages and to support mature companies’ export activities in the foreign market. STPs should support the production, commercialization and more significantly internationalization of technology-intensive business and foster growth of companies. Nowadays within this value-added services, internationalization is very popular subject in the world. Most of STPs design clusters or accelerator programs in order to support their companies in the foreign market penetration. If startups are not ready for international competition, STPs should help them to get ready for foreign market with training and mentoring sessions. These training and mentoring sessions should take a goal based approach to working with companies. Each company has different needs and goals. Therefore the definition of ‘success' varies for each company. For this reason, it is very important to create customized value added services to meet the needs of startups. After local supports, STPs should also be able to support their startups in foreign market. Organizing well defined international accelerator program plays an important role in this mission. Turkey is strategically placed between key markets in Europe, Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East. Its population is young and well educated. So both government agencies and the private sectors endeavor to foster and encourage entrepreneurship ecosystem with many supports. In sum, the task of technoparks with these and similar value added services is very important for developing entrepreneurship ecosystem. The priorities of all value added services are to identify the commercialization and growth obstacles faced by entrepreneurs and get rid of them with the one-to-one customized services. Also, in order to have a healthy startup ecosystem and create sustainable entrepreneurship, stakeholders (technoparks, incubators, accelerators, investors, universities, governmental organizations etc.) should fulfill their roles and/or duties and collaborate with each other. STPs play an important role as bridge for these stakeholders & entrepreneurs. STPs always should benchmark and renew services offered to how to help the start-ups to survive, develop their business and benefit from these stakeholders.

Keywords: accelerator, cluster, entrepreneurship, startup, technopark, value added services

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Authors: José M Martín-Moreno, Rafaela Pérez, Jesús Ruiz

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In this paper we use a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) for the Spanish economy to search for a deeper characterization of the determinants of Spain’s macroeconomic fluctuations throughout the period 1970-2008. In order to do this, we distinguish between tradable and non-tradable goods to take into account the fact that the presence of non-tradable goods in this economy is one of the largest in the world. We estimate a DSGE model with supply and demand shocks (sectorial productivity, public spending, international real interest rate and preferences) using Kalman Filter techniques. We find the following results. First of all, our variance decomposition analysis suggests that 1) the preference shock basically accounts for private consumption volatility, 2) the idiosyncratic productivity shock accounts for non-tradable output volatility, and 3) the sectorial productivity shock along with the international interest rate both greatly account for tradable output. Secondly, the model closely replicates the time path observed in the data for the Spanish economy and finally, the model captures the main cyclical qualitative features of this economy reasonably well.

Keywords: business cycle, DSGE models, Kalman filter estimation, small open economy

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Authors: Ekaterina G. Lipatova

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The developing potential of a video task in teaching foreign languages involves the opportunities to improve four aspects of speech production process: listening, reading, speaking and writing. A video represents the sequence of actions, realized in the pictures logically connected and verbalized speech flow that simplifies and stimulates the process of perception. In this connection listening skills of students are developed effectively as well as their intellectual properties such as synthesizing, analyzing and generalizing the information. In terms of teaching capacity, a video task, in our opinion, is more stimulating than a traditional listening, since it involves the student into the plot of the communicative situation, emotional background and potentially makes them react to the gist in the cognitive and communicative ways. To be an effective method of teaching the video task should be structured in the way of psycho-linguistic characteristics of speech production process, in other words, should include three phases: before-watching, while-watching and after-watching. The system of tasks provided to each phase might involve the situations on reflecting to the video content in the forms of filling-the-gap tasks, multiple choice, True-or-False tasks (reading skills), exercises on expressing the opinion, project fulfilling (writing and speaking skills). In the before-watching phase we offer the students to adjust their perception mechanism to the topic and the problem of the chosen video by such task as “what do you know about such a problem?”, “is it new for you?”, “have you ever faced the situation of…?”. Then we proceed with the lexical and grammatical analysis of language units that form the body of a speech sample to lessen the perception and develop the student’s lexicon. The goal of while-watching phase is to build the student’s awareness about the problem presented in the video and challenge their inner attitude towards what they have seen by identifying the mistakes in the statements about the video content or making the summary, justifying their understanding. Finally, we move on to development of their speech skills within the communicative situation they observed and learnt by stimulating them to search the similar ideas in their backgrounds and represent them orally or in the written form or express their own opinion on the problem. It is compulsory to highlight, that a video task should contain the urgent, valid and interesting event related to the future profession of the student, since it will help to activate cognitive, emotional, verbal and ethic capacity of students. Also, logically structured video tasks are easily integrated into the system of e-learning and can provide the opportunity for the students to work with the foreign language on their own.

Keywords: communicative situation, perception mechanism, speech production process, speech skills

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Authors: Yskak Nabi, Onolkan Umankulova, Ilyas Seitov

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Tempus project about “Central Asian network for quality assurance – CANQA” had been implemented in 2009-2012. As the result of the project, two accreditation agencies were established: the agency for quality assurance in the field of education, “EdNet” in Kyrgyzstan, center of progressive technologies in Tajikistan. The importance of the research studies of the project is supported by the idea that the creation of Central-Asian network for quality assurance in education is still relevant, and results of the International forum “Global in regional: Kazakhstan in Bologna process and EU projects,” that was held in Nur-Sultan in October 2020, proves this. At the same time, the previous experience of the partnership between accreditation agencies of Central Asia shows that recommendations elaborated within the CANQA project were not theoretically justified. But there are a number of facts and arguments that prove the practical appliance of these recommendations. In this respect, joint activities of accreditation agencies of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are representative. For example, independent Kazakh agency of accreditation and rating successfully conducts accreditation of Kyrgyz universities; based on the memorandum about joint activity between the agency for quality assurance in the field of education “EdNet” (Kyrgyzstan) and Astana accreditation agency (Kazakhstan), the last one provides its experts for accreditation procedures in EdNet. Exchange of experience among the agencies shows an effective approach towards adaptation of European standards to the reality of education systems of Central Asia with consideration of not only a legal framework but also from the point of European practices view. Therefore, the relevance of the research is identified as there is a practical partnership between accreditation agencies of Central Asian countries, but the absence of theoretical justification of integrational processes in the accreditation field. As a result, the following hypothesis was put forward: “if to develop theoretical aspects for harmonization of accreditation standards, then integrational processes would be improved since the implementation of Bologna process principles would be supported with wider possibilities, and particularly, students and academic mobility would be improved.” Indeed, for example, in Kazakhstan, the total share of foreign students was 5,04% in 2020, and most of them are coming from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and if integrational processes will be improved, then this share can increase.

Keywords: accreditation standards in education, Central Asian countries, pedagogical theory, model

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Authors: Reina Kawase

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Japan set the goal of 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. To consider countermeasures for reducing GHG emission, the production estimation of energy intensive materials, such as steel, is essential. About 50% of steel production is exported in Japan, so it is necessary to consider steel production including export. Steel productions from 2005-2050 in Japan were estimated under various global assumptions based on combination of scenarios such as goods trade scenarios and steel making process selection scenarios. Process selection scenarios decide volume of steel production by process (basic oxygen furnace and electric arc furnace) with considering steel consumption projection, supply-demand balance of steel, and scrap surplus. The range of steel production by process was analyzed. Maximum steel production was estimated under the scenario which consumes scrap in domestic steel production at maximum level. In 2035, steel production reaches 149 million ton because of increase in electric arc furnace steel. However, it decreases towards 2050 and amounts to 120 million ton, which is almost same as a current level. Minimum steel production is under the scenario which assumes technology progress in steel making and supply-demand balance consideration in each region. Steel production decreases from base year and is 44 million ton in 2050.

Keywords: goods trade scenario, steel making process selection scenario, steel production, global warming

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Authors: Vladimir Korovkin, Albert Park, Evgeny Kaganer

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The paper studies the second-level digital divide (the one defined by the way how digital technology is used in everyday life) between regions of the Russian Federation. The paper offers a systemic review of literature on the measurement of the digital divide; based upon this it suggests a composite Digital Life Index, that captures the complex multi-dimensional character of the phenomenon. The model of the index studies separately the digital supply and demand across seven independent dimensions providing for 14 subindices. The Index is based on Internet-borne data, a distinction from traditional research approaches that rely on official statistics or surveys. Regression analysis is used to determine the relative importance of factors like income, human capital, and policy in determining the digital divide. The result of the analysis suggests that the digital divide is driven more by the differences in demand (defined by consumer competencies) than in supply; the role of income is insignificant, and the quality of human capital is the key determinant of the divide. The paper advances the existing methodological literature on the issue and can also inform practical decision-making regarding the strategies of national and regional digital development.

Keywords: digital transformation, second-level digital divide, composite index, digital policy, regional development, Russia

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Authors: Vakhtang Geladze, Nana Bolashvili, Nino Machavariani, Tamazi Karalashvili, Nino Chikhradze, Davit Kartvelishvili

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Fresh water deficit is one of the most important global problems today. In the countries with scarce water resources, they often become a reason of armed conflicts. The peaceful settlement of relations connected with management and water consumption issues within and beyond the frontiers of the country is an important guarantee of the region stability. The said problem is urgent in Georgia as well because of its water objects are located at the borders and the transit run-off that is 12% of the total one. Fresh water resources are the major natural resources of Georgia. Despite of this, water supply of population at its Eastern part is an acute issue. Southeastern part of the country has been selected to carry out the research. This region is notable for deficiency of water resources in the country. The region tends to desertification which aggravates fresh water problem even more and presumably may lead to migration of local population from the area. The purpose of study was creation geographical information system (GIS) of water resources. GIS contains almost all layers of different content (water resources, springs, channels, hydrological stations, population water supply, etc.). The results of work provide an opportunity to identify the resource potential of the mentioned region, control and manage it, carry out monitoring and plan regional economy.

Keywords: desertification, GIS, irrigation, water resources

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Authors: A. Aguezzoul

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The Logistics Services Providers (LSPs) selection and performance is a strategic decision that affects the overall performance of any company as well as its supply chain. It is a complex process, which takes into account various conflicting quantitative and qualitative factors, as well as outsourced logistics activities. This article focuses on the evolution of the weights associated to these factors over the last years in order to better understand the change in the importance that logistics professionals place on them criteria when choosing their LSPs. For that, an analysis of 17 main studies published during 2014-2017 period was carried out and the results are compared to those of a previous literature review on this subject. Our analysis allowed us to deduce the following observations: 1) the LSPs selection is a multi-criteria process; 2) the empirical character of the majority of studies, conducted particularly in Asian countries; 3) the criteria importance has undergone significant changes following the emergence of information technologies that have favored the work in close collaboration and in partnership between the LSPs and their customers, even on a worldwide scale; 4) the cost criterion is relatively less important than in the past; and finally 5) with the development of sustainable supply chains, the factors associated with the logistic activities of return and waste processing (reverse logistics) are becoming increasingly important in this multi-criteria process of selection and evaluation of LSPs performance.

Keywords: logistics outsourcing, logistics providers, multi-criteria decision making, performance

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Authors: Yuxi Zhu, Zhenqian Chen

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It is of great interest to investigate the thermal properties of non-precious metal catalysts for Proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) based on the thermal management requirements. Due to the low symmetry of materials, to accurately obtain the thermal conductivity of materials, it is necessary to obtain the second and third order force constants by combining density functional theory and machine learning interatomic potential. To be specific, the interatomic force constants are obtained by moment tensor potential (MTP), which is trained by the computational trajectory of Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) at 50, 300, 600, and 900 K for 1 ps each, with a time step of 1 fs in the AIMD computation. And then the thermal conductivity can be obtained by solving the Boltzmann transport equation. In this paper, the thermal transport properties of single metal atom catalysts are studied for the first time to our best knowledge by machine-learning interatomic potential (MLIP). Results show that the single metal atom catalysts exhibit anisotropic thermal conductivities and partially exhibit good thermal conductivity. The average lattice thermal conductivities of G-FeN₄, G-CoN₄ and G-NiN₄ at 300 K are 88.61 W/mK, 205.32 W/mK and 210.57 W/mK, respectively. While other single metal atom catalysts show low thermal conductivity due to their low phonon lifetime. The results also show that low-frequency phonons (0-10 THz) dominate thermal transport properties. The results provide theoretical insights into the application of single metal atom catalysts in thermal management.

Keywords: proton exchange membrane fuel cell, single metal atom catalysts, density functional theory, thermal conductivity, machine-learning interatomic potential

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Authors: Nounamo Nguedie Yann Harold

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The factors behind the debt have been the subject of several studies in the literature. Pioneering studies based on the 'double deficit' approach linked indebtedness to the imbalance between savings and investment, the budget deficit and the current account deficit. Most studies on identifying factors that may stimulate or reduce the level of external public debt agree that the following variables are important explanatory variables in leveraging debt: the budget deficit, trade opening, current account and exchange rate, import, export, interest rate, term variation exchange rate, economic growth rate and debt service, capital flight, and over-indebtedness. Few studies addressed the impact of political factors on the level of external debt. In general, however, the IMF's stabilization programs in developing countries following the debt crisis have resulted in economic recession and the advent of political crises that have resulted in changes in governments. In this sense, political institutions are recognised as factors of accumulation of external debt in most developing countries. This paper assesses the role of political factors on the external debt level of African countries in the Franc Zone over the period 1985-2016. Data used come from World Bank and ICRG. Using a logit in panel, the results show that the more a country is politically stable, the lower the external debt compared to the gross domestic product. Political stability multiplies 1.18% the chances of being in the sustainable debt zone. For example, countries with good political institutions experience less severe external debt burdens than countries with bad political institutions.

Keywords: African countries, external debt, Franc Zone, political factors

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Authors: Inmaculada Yuste Martinez

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Since July 5, 2014, Abubaker al Bagdadi, leader of the Islamic State since 2010 climbed the pulpit of the Great Mosque of Al Nuri of Mosul and proclaimed the Caliphate, the number of fighters who have travelled to Syria to join the Caliphate has increased as never before. Although it is true that the phenomenon of foreign fighters is not a new phenomenon, as it occurred after the Spanish Civil War, Republicans from Ireland and the conflict of the Balkans among others, it is highly relevant the fact that in this case, it has reached figures unknown in Europe until now. The approval of the resolution 2178 (2014) of the Security Council, foreign terrorist fighters placed the subject a priority position on the International agenda. The available data allow us to affirm that women have increasingly assumed operative functions in jihadist terrorism and in the activities linked to it in the development of attacks in the European Union, including minors and young adults. In the case of Spain, one in four of the detainees in 2016 were women, a significant increase compared to 2015. This contrasts with the fact that until 2014 no woman had been prosecuted in Spain for terrorist activities of a jihadist nature. It is fundamental when we talk about the prevention of radicalization and counterterrorism that we do not underestimate the potential threat to the security of countries like Spain that women from the West can assume to the global jihadist movement. This work aims to deepen the radicalization processes of these women and their profiles influencing the female inmate population. It also wants to focus on the importance of creating de-radicalization programs for these inmates since women are a crucial element in radicalization processes. A special focus it is made on young radicalized female inmate population as this target group is the most recoverable and on which it would result more fruitful to intervene. De-radicalization programs must also be designed to fit their profiles and circumstances; a sensitive environment will be prisons and juvenile centers, areas that until now had been unrelated to this problem and which are already hosting the first convicted in judicial offices in Spanish territory. A qualitative research and an empirical and analytical method has been implemented in this work, focused on the cases that took place in Spain of young women and the imaginary that the Islamic State uses for the processes of radicalization for this target group and how it does not fit with their real role in the Jihad, as opposed to other movements in which women do have a real and active role in the armed conflict as YPJ do it as a part of the armed wing of the Democratic Union Party of Syria.

Keywords: caliphate, de-radicalization, foreign fighter, gender perspective, ISIS, jihadism, recruitment

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Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

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The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

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Authors: Aisha Siddiqa

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The knowledge of pragmatic practices in a particular language is considered key to effective communication. Unlike one’s native language where this knowledge is acquired spontaneously, more conscious attention is required to learn second language pragmatics. Traditional foreign language (FL) classrooms generally focus on the acquisition of vocabulary and lexico-grammatical structures, neglecting pragmatic functions that are essential for effective communication in the multilingual networks of the modern world. In terms of effective communication, of particular importance is knowledge of what is perceived as polite or impolite in a certain language, an aspect of pragmatics which is not perceived as obligatory but is nonetheless indispensable for successful intercultural communication and integration. While learning a second language, the acquisition of politeness assumes more prominence as the politeness norms and practices vary according to language and culture. Therefore, along with focusing on the ‘use’ of politeness strategies, it is crucial to examine the ‘acquisition’ and the ‘acquisitional development’ of politeness strategies by second language learners, particularly, by lower proficiency leaners as the norms of politeness are usually focused in lower levels. Hence, there is an obvious need for a study that not only investigates the acquisition of pragmatics by young FL learners using innovative multiple methods; but also identifies the potential causes of the gaps in their development. The present research employs a cross sectional design to explore the acquisition of politeness by young English as a foreign language learners (EFL) in France; at three levels of secondary school learning. The methodology involves two phases. In the first phase a cartoon oral production task (COPT) is used to elicit samples of requests from young EFL learners in French schools. These data are then supplemented by a) role plays, b) an analysis of textbooks, and c) video recordings of classroom activities. This mixed method approach allows us to explore the repertoire of politeness strategies the learners possess and delve deeper into the opportunities available to learners in classrooms to learn politeness strategies in requests. The paper will provide the results of the analysis of COPT data for 250 learners at three different stages of English as foreign language development. Data analysis is based on categorization of requests developed in CCSARP project. The preliminary analysis of the COPT data shows that there is substantial evidence of pragmalinguistic development across all levels but the developmental process seems to gain momentum in the second half of the secondary school period as compared to the early period at school. However, there is very little evidence of sociopragmatic development. The study aims to document the current classroom practices in France by looking at the development of young EFL learner’s politeness strategies across three levels of secondary schools.

Keywords: acquisition, English, France, interlanguage pragmatics, politeness

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Authors: Mónica Arroyo

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South America shows increasing decline in regional export values in the last years, after a strong growth of trade flows especially with China up to 2013. This change is due to the end of the commodity price boom, the slowing of the Chinese economy and the effects of the 2008 economic crisis. This paper examines the integration of regional economies in this context, particularly the situation in Brazil and Argentina. Based on transformations over the last two decades, the analysis is focused on the spatial circuits of production linked to foreign markets, contributing to the understanding of the different uses of territory and the within-country inequality. The South American regional exports, consisting basically of raw materials, are concentrated in a few companies. Large areas are intended for the production of agriculture and mining commodities, under the command of major economic groups, both domestic and foreign, relegating the local population to less productive places or, in most cases, forcing them to change their activity and to migrate to other regions in search of some source of income. On the other hand, the dynamics of these commodities’ spatial circuits of production print requirements in territories in terms of infrastructure and regulation. Capturing this movement requires understanding businesses and government’s role in territorial regulation, and consequently how regional systems are changing – for instance, economic specialisation, growing role of services, investment in roads, railways, ports, and airports. This paper aims to highlight topics for discussion on regional economic dynamics and their different degrees of internationalisation. The intention is to contribute to the debate about the relations between trade, globalization, and development.

Keywords: regional inequality, international trade, developing world, South America

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