Search results for: forward collision probability

Authors: Chenyu Huang, Minrong Cui, Hua Fang, Luqing Zhang, Yunlong Yu

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The emergence and spread of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) have become a pressing issue in global agricultural production. However, understanding how these ARGs spread across different spatial scales, especially when exposed to both pesticides and antibiotics, has remained a challenge. Here, metagenomic assembly and binning methodologies were used to determine the mechanism of ARG propagation within soil-lettuce systems exposed to both fungicides and antibiotics. The results of our study showed that the presence of fungicide and antibiotic stresses had a significant impact on certain bacterial communities. Notably, we observed that ARGs were primarily transferred from the soil to the plant through plasmids. The selective pressure exerted by fungicides and antibiotics contributed to an increase in unique ARGs present on lettuce leaves. Moreover, ARGs located on chromosomes and plasmids followed different transmission patterns. The presence of diverse selective pressures, a result of compound treatments involving antibiotics and fungicides, amplifies this phenomenon. Consequently, there is a higher probability of bacteria developing multi-antibiotic resistance under the combined pressure of fungicides and antibiotics. In summary, our findings highlight that combined fungicide and antibiotic treatments are more likely to drive the acquisition of ARGs within the soil-plant system and may increase the risk of human ingestion.

Keywords: soil-lettuce system, fungicide, antibiotic, ARG, transmission

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini

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A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.

Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: O. P. Oladipo, O. A. Falode

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The determination of Recovery Factor is of great importance to the reservoir engineer since it relates reserves to the initial oil in place. Reserves are the producible portion of reservoirs and give an indication of the profitability of a field Development. The core objective of this project is to develop an artificial neural network model using selected reservoir data to predict Recovery Factors (RF) of hydrocarbon reservoirs and compare the model with a couple of the existing correlations. The type of Artificial Neural Network model developed was the Single Layer Feed Forward Network. MATLAB was used as the network simulator and the network was trained using the supervised learning method, Afterwards, the network was tested with input data never seen by the network. The results of the predicted values of the recovery factors of the Artificial Neural Network Model, API Correlation for water drive reservoirs (Sands and Sandstones) and Guthrie and Greenberger Correlation Equation were obtained and compared. It was noted that the coefficient of correlation of the Artificial Neural Network Model was higher than the coefficient of correlations of the other two correlation equations, thus making it a more accurate prediction tool. The Artificial Neural Network, because of its accurate prediction ability is helpful in the correct prediction of hydrocarbon reservoir factors. Artificial Neural Network could be applied in the prediction of other Petroleum Engineering parameters because it is able to recognise complex patterns of data set and establish a relationship between them.

Keywords: recovery factor, reservoir, reserves, artificial neural network, hydrocarbon, MATLAB, API, Guthrie, Greenberger

Procedia PDF Downloads 445

Authors: Asma Omri, Noureddine Benothman, Sofiane Sayahi, Fethi Tlili, Hichem Besbes

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Cycling, a popular mode of transportation, can also be perilous due to cyclists' vulnerability to collisions with vehicles and obstacles. This paper presents an innovative cyclist safety system based on radar technology designed to offer real-time collision risk warnings to cyclists. The system incorporates a low-power radar sensor affixed to the bicycle and connected to a microcontroller. It leverages radar point cloud detections, a clustering algorithm, and a supervised classifier. These algorithms are optimized for efficiency to run on the TI’s AWR 1843 BOOST radar, utilizing a coarse classification approach distinguishing between cars, trucks, two-wheeled vehicles, and other objects. To enhance the performance of clustering techniques, we propose a 2-Level clustering approach. This approach builds on the state-of-the-art Density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN). The objective is to first cluster objects based on their velocity, then refine the analysis by clustering based on position. The initial level identifies groups of objects with similar velocities and movement patterns. The subsequent level refines the analysis by considering the spatial distribution of these objects. The clusters obtained from the first level serve as input for the second level of clustering. Our proposed technique surpasses the classical DBSCAN algorithm in terms of geometrical metrics, including homogeneity, completeness, and V-score. Relevant cluster features are extracted and utilized to classify objects using an SVM classifier. Potential obstacles are identified based on their velocity and proximity to the cyclist. To optimize the system, we used the View of Delft dataset for hyperparameter selection and SVM classifier training. The system's performance was assessed using our collected dataset of radar point clouds synchronized with a camera on an Nvidia Jetson Nano board. The radar-based cyclist safety system is a practical solution that can be easily installed on any bicycle and connected to smartphones or other devices, offering real-time feedback and navigation assistance to cyclists. We conducted experiments to validate the system's feasibility, achieving an impressive 85% accuracy in the classification task. This system has the potential to significantly reduce the number of accidents involving cyclists and enhance their safety on the road.

Keywords: 2-level clustering, coarse classification, cyclist safety, warning system based on radar technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Ming Ma, Rui Li

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In the highly urbanized district, green open space is playing an important role in human’s health and wellbeing as a physical, aesthetic and natural environment resources. The aim of this paper is to close this gap through providing a comprehensive, qualitative meta-analysis of existing studies related to this issue. A systematic scoping of current quantitative research is conducted which mostly focused on cross-sectional survey and experimental studies. Health benefits from contact with green open space could be categorized into physical health, psychological health and social wellbeing. Mechanism for the health related to green open space could be clearly identified with the regard to natural restoration, physical activities and social capital. These results indicate a multiple pathways framework between the health benefits and mechanism. In order to support design and planning, the most evident relationship was picked up that people could psychologically benefit from green open space through outdoors physical activities. Additionally, three design and planning strategies are put forward. Various and multi-level contacts with green open space would be considered as an explanation of the pathway results and tie to bridge the health to design and planning. There is a need to carry out long-term research emphasizing on causal relationship between health and green open space through excluding cofounding factors such as self-selection.

Keywords: urban green open space, planning and design, health benefit, mechanism, pathway framework

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Joshua Paul Steimel, Michael Pappas, Ethan Hall

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Particle-particle interactions are critical in determining the state of an active matter system. Unique and ubiquitous non-equilibrium behavior like swarming, vortexing, spiraling, and much more is governed by interactions between active units or particles. In hybrid active-passive matter systems, the attraction between spinning active units in a 2D monolayer of passive particles is controlled by the mechanical behavior of the passive monolayer. We demonstrate here that the range and dynamics of this attraction can be controlled by changing the composition of the passive monolayer by adding dopant passive particles. These dopant passive particles effectively pin the movement of dislocation motion in the passive media and reduce the probability of defect motion required to erode the bridge of passive particles between active spinners, thus reducing the range of attraction. Additionally, by adding an out of plane component to the magnetic moment and creating a top-like motion a short range repulsion emerges between the top-like particle. At inter-top distances less than four particle diameters apart, the tops repel but beyond that, distance attract up to 13 particle diameters apart. The tops were also able to locally and transiently anneal the passive monolayer. Thus we demonstrate that by tuning several parameters of the hybrid active matter system, one can observe very different emergent behavior.

Keywords: active matter, colloids, ferromagnetic, annealing

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Clarinda V. Nhangumbe, Ercília Sousa

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Weather Derivatives are financial instruments used to cover non-catastrophic weather events and can be expressed in the form of standard or plain vanilla products, structured or exotics products. The underlying asset, in this case, is the weather index, such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and snowfall. The complexity of the Weather Derivatives structure shows the weakness of the Black Scholes framework. Therefore, under the risk-neutral probability measure, the option price of a weather contract can be given as a unique solution of a two-dimensional partial differential equation (parabolic in one direction and hyperbolic in other directions), with an initial condition and subjected to adequate boundary conditions. To calculate the price of the option, one can use numerical methods such as the Monte Carlo simulations and implicit finite difference schemes conjugated with Semi-Lagrangian methods. This paper is proposed two explicit methods, namely, first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with Lax-Wendroff in the parabolic direction and first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with second-order upwind in the parabolic direction. One of the advantages of these methods is the fact that they take into consideration the boundary conditions obtained from the financial interpretation and deal efficiently with the different choices of the convection coefficients.

Keywords: incomplete markets, numerical methods, partial differential equations, stochastic process, weather derivatives

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Nina N. Serdar, Jelena R. Pejović

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This paper presents seismic risk assessment of two bridge structure, based on the probabilistic performance-based seismic assessment methodology. Both investigated bridges are tree span continuous RC curved bridges with the difference in column shapes. First bridge (type A) has a wall-type pier and second (type B) has a two-column bent with circular columns. Bridges are designed according to European standards: EN 1991-2, EN1992-1-1 and EN 1998-2. Aim of the performed analysis is to compare seismic behavior of these two structures and to detect the influence of column shapes on the seismic response. Seismic risk assessment is carried out by obtaining demand fragility curves. Non-linear model was constructed and time-history analysis was performed using thirty five pairs of horizontal ground motions selected to match site specific hazard. In performance based analysis, peak column drift ratio (CDR) was selected as engineering demand parameter (EDP). For seismic intensity measure (IM) spectral displacement was selected. Demand fragility curves that give probability of exceedance of certain value for chosen EDP were constructed and based on them conclusions were made.

Keywords: RC curved bridge, demand fragility curve, wall type column, nonlinear time-history analysis, circular column

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Abdulsalami M. Deji

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Prolonged military incursion in Nigeria politics which favored the oligarchy brought agitation for democratic rule it exacerbated ethnicity integration of minority for fear of domination. The advent of democracy ushered in new breath of life to Nigerians from the shackle of military oppression to democratic governance. Democratic rule became a mirage as a result of prevalent insecurity in Nigeria; effort to bring lasting peace to all sections of the country had not yielded positive result till date. In the process of struggling for democracy among ethnic groups in Nigeria, they had instituted various militia groups defending the interest of their identity due to unequal distribution of wealth by military junta. When democracy came on board, these various militia groups became demons hunting democratic institutions. Quest by the successful government to find lasting solution has proved abortive. The security of politics which guaranteed stability is not visible in Nigeria, what we have now is politics of security. The unrest in Nigeria today has cripple socio-political and economy of the nation; the growth of economy favored elites without meaningful impact on the common man. This paper focus on the effects of democracy on Nigerians and, how security under democratic rule has hindered dividends of democracy since 1999-till date and way forward. The source is strictly base on secondary source from textbook, newspapers, internet, and journals.

Keywords: democracy, interest, militia, security

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Abduselam Faris, Rijalu Negash, Zera Kedir

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This study was initiated to identify constraints and opportunities of the wood production value chain in Southwest Ethiopia. About 385 wood trees growing farmers were randomly interviewed. Similarly, about 30 small-scale wood processors, 30 retailers, 15 local collectors and 5 wholesalers were purposively included in the study. The results of the study indicated that 98.96 % of the smallholder farmers that engaged in the production of wood trees which is used for wood were male-headed, with an average age of 46.88 years. The main activity that the household engaged was agriculture (crop and livestock) which accounts for about 61.56% of the sample respondents. Through value chain mapping of actors, the major value chain participant and supporting actors were identified. On average, the tree-growing farmers generated gross income of 9385.926 Ethiopian birr during the survey year. Among the critical constraints identified along the wood production value chain was limited supply of credit, poor market information dissemination, high interference of brokers, and shortage of machines, inadequate working area and electricity. The availability of forest resources is the leading opportunity in the wood production value chain. Reinforcing the linkage among wood production value chain actors, providing skill training for small-scale processors, and developing suitable policy for wood tree wise use is key recommendations forward.

Keywords: value chain analysis, wood production, southwest Ethiopia, constraints and opportunities

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Xiaoping Zhang, Fengying Yan

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The implementation of the 'Urban Design Management Measures' requires that the master urban design should aim at creating a livable urban space. However, to our best knowledge, the existing researches and practices of master urban design not only focus less on the livable space but also face a number of problems such as paying more attention to the image of the city, ignoring the people-oriented and lacking dynamic continuity. In order to make the master urban design can better guide the construction of city. Firstly, the paper proposes the livable city hierarchy system to meet the needs of different groups of people and then constructs the framework of livable goal-oriented master urban design based on the theory of livable content and the ideological origin of people-oriented. Secondly, the paper takes the master urban design practice of Zibo as a sample and puts forward the design strategy of strengthening the pattern, improve the quality of space, shape the feature, and establish a series of action plans based on the strategy of urban space development. Finally, the paper explores the method system of livable goal-oriented master urban design from the aspects of safety pattern, morphology pattern, neighborhood scale, open space, street space, public interface, style feature, public participation and action plans.

Keywords: livable, master urban design, public participation, zibo city

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Raghunath Arnab

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The two-phase sampling which is also known as double sampling was introduced in 1938. In two-phase sampling, samples are selected in phases. In the first phase, a relatively large sample of size is selected by some suitable sampling design and only information on the auxiliary variable is collected. During the second phase, a sample of size is selected either from, the sample selected in the first phase or from the entire population by using a suitable sampling design and information regarding the study and auxiliary variable is collected. Evidently, two phase sampling is useful if the auxiliary information is relatively easy and cheaper to collect than the study variable as well as if the strength of the relationship between the variables and is high. If the sample is selected in more than two phases, the resulting sampling design is called a multi-phase sampling. In this article we will consider how one can use data collected at the first phase sampling at the stages of estimation of the parameter, stratification, selection of sample and their combinations in the second phase in a unified setup applicable to any sampling design and wider classes of estimators. The problem of the estimation of variance will also be considered. The variance of estimator is essential for estimating precision of the survey estimates, calculation of confidence intervals, determination of the optimal sample sizes and for testing of hypotheses amongst others. Although, the variance is a non-negative quantity but its estimators may not be non-negative. If the estimator of variance is negative, then it cannot be used for estimation of confidence intervals, testing of hypothesis or measure of sampling error. The non-negativity properties of the variance estimators will also be studied in details.

Keywords: auxiliary information, two-phase sampling, varying probability sampling, unbiased estimators

Procedia PDF Downloads 591

Authors: R. Gharari, N. Kojouri, R. Hosseini Aghdam, E. Alibeigi, B. Salmasian

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In this research, the WWER1000/V446 (a PWR Russian type reactor) is chosen as the case study. It is assumed that radioactive materials that release into the environment are more than allowable limit due to a complete failure of the ventilation system (reactor stack). In the following, the HOTSPOT and the RASCAL computational codes have been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In addition, effects of the containment spray system and climate conditions on the TEDE have been investigated. According to the obtained results, there is an inverse correlation between the received dose and the wind speed; the amount of the TEDE for wind speed 2 m/s and is more than wind speed for 14 m/s during the class A of the climate (2.168 and 0.444 mSv, respectively). Also, containment spray system can effect and reduce the amount of the fission products and TEDE. Furthermore, the probability of the cancer risk for women is more than men, and for children is more than adults. In addition, a specific emergency zonal planning is proposed. Results are promising in which the site selection of the WWER1000/V446 were considered safe for the public in this situation.

Keywords: TEDE, total effective dose equivalent, RASCAL and HOTSPOT codes, BEIR equations, cancer risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Pandega Gama Mahardika, Muhammad Rifki Al Iksan, Datuk Fachrul Razy

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Oil And Gas Tanker Driver is a high-risk jobdesc. drivers drive with sleep circadian rhythm disturbances. Therefore, FAMOUS (Fatigue Management Online Ultimate System) conducted a diagnostic test on the effectiveness and accuracy of the Psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) in the field to capture the fatigue level of Oil And Gas Tanker Driver. Fatigue examination with the PVP method for 3 minutes using the Pertamina FAMOUS system (Fatigue Management Online Ultimate System). The research sample was Oil And Gas Tanker Driver Elnusa petrofin drivers as many as 2205 people. PVT is categorical data that states a driver has a low or high fatigue level. The quality of sleep at home was recorded by filling in a score of 1 = not well, 2 = not well, 3 = well, per person. A total of 1852 (84%) driver had a low fatigue level, while 353 (16%) driver had a high fatigue level. Poor sleep quality was experienced by 68 (79%) driver who had a high fatigue level. Oil And Gas Tanker Driver who slept soundly at home as many as 1804 (87%) had a low fatigue level. The correlation coefficient of sleep quality home and fatigue level is significant because it shows a probability value of 0.00 (p <5%). Fatigue level can be diagnosed through examining sleep quality, using FAMOUS Program for occupational medicine, particularly in the oil and gas sector.

Keywords: psychomotor vigilance test, fatigue, sleep, oil and gas tanker driver drivers, pertamina FAMOUS

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Binu Sahayam

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HIV/AIDS epidemic is in its third decade and has become a virulent disease that threatens the world population. Many countless efforts had been made yet this has become a social and developmental concern. According to UNAIDS 2013 Report, In India around 2.4 million people are currently living with HIV and third in the infection rate. As every country is facing this health issue, this has become a social and developmental concern for India. In country like India, open discussion on sex and sexuality is not possible due to its conventional culture. Educational institution like schools and colleges can create awareness on sex education, life skill education, information on HIV and STD which is lacking. It is very clear that preventive knowledge remains low and this leads to increase in the HIV/AIDS infection rate. HIV/AIDS is a disease which is not curable but preventable, keeping this in mind religious leaders of various have come forward in addressing the issue of HIV/AIDS using various social strategies. The study has been focused on three main India religious teachings Hinduism, Christianity and Islam in addressing the issue of HIV/AIDS and its possible intervention in dealing with HIV/AIDS prevention. The study is important because it highlights the health issues, stigma discrimination, psychological disturbances and insecurity faced by the infected and affected persons. Therefore, this study privileges the role of religious leadership in the efforts and processes of preventing HIV/AIDS, caring and providing support to People living with HIV/AIDS and argues that intervention of religious leadership is an effective measure to confront many of the barriers associated with HIV/AIDS.

Keywords: HIV and AIDS, STDs, religion and religious organisation

Procedia PDF Downloads 394

Authors: Lianxue Shi

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Riverfront street has the dual characteristics of street space and waterfront space, which is not only a vital place for residents to travel and communicate but also a high-frequency space for people's leisure and entertainment. However, under the development of cities and towns pursuing efficiency, riverfront streets appear to have a variety of problems, such as a lack of multifunctionality, insufficient facilities, and loss of characteristics, which fail to meet the needs of various groups of people, and their inclusiveness is facing a great challenge. It is, therefore, evident that the optimization of riverfront street space from an inclusivity perspective is important to the establishment of a human-centered, high-quality urban space. Therefore, this article starts by exploring the interactive relationship between inclusive design and street space. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of the riverfront street space and people's needs, it proposes the four inclusive design orientations of natural inclusion, group inclusion, spatial inclusion, and social inclusion. It then constructs a design framework for the inclusive optimization of riverfront street space, aiming to create streets that are “safe and accessible, diverse and shared, distinctive and friendly, green and sustainable”. Riverfront streets in Wansheng District, Chongqing, are selected as a practice case, and specific strategies are put forward in four aspects: the creation of an accessible slow-traffic system, the provision of diversified functional services, the reshaping of emotional bonds and the integration of ecological spaces.

Keywords: inclusiveness design, riverfront street, spatial optimization, street spaces

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: A. Latif Karimi

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Since 2001, construction works, especially the construction of new homes and residential buildings, witnessed a dramatic boom across Afghanistan. More so, the construction industry and house builders are relied upon as important players in the country’s job market, economy and infrastructural development schemes. However, a lack of innovation, quality assurance mechanism, substandard construction and market dominance by traditional methods push all the parties in house building sector to shift for more advanced construction techniques and mass production technologies to meet the rising demands for proper accommodation. Meanwhile, rapid population growth and urbanization are widening the gap between the demand and supply of new and modern houses in urban areas like Kabul, Herat, etc. This paper investigates about current condition of construction practices in house building projects, the associated challenges, and the outcomes of transition to more reasonable and sustainable building methods. It is obvious, the introduction and use of Modern Methods of Construction (MMC) can help construction industry and house builders in Afghanistan to tackle the challenges and meet the desired standards for modern houses. This paper focuses on prefabrication, a popular MMC that is becoming more common, improving in quality and available in a variety of budgets. It is revealed that this method is the way forward to improving house building practices as it has been proven to reduce construction time, minimize waste and improve environmental performance of construction developments.

Keywords: modern houses, traditional construction, modern methods of construction, prefabrication, sustainable building

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: M. D. Dogara, C. G, Afuwai, O. O. Esther, A. M. Dawai

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For two decades, the inhabitants of Kujama Prison Farm faced problems of water for domestic and agricultural purposes, even after the drilling of three deep boreholes. The scarcity of this groundwater resource led to the geophysical investigation of the basement complex of the prison farm. Two geophysical techniques, vertical electrical sounding and seismic refraction methods were deployed to unravel the cause(s) of the non-productivity of the three boreholes. The area of investigation covered was 400,000 m2 of ten profiles with six investigative points. In all, 60 vertical electrical points were sounded, and sixty sets of seismic refraction data were collected using the forward and reverse approach. From the geoelectric sections, it is suggestive that the area is underlain by three to five geoelectric layers of varying thicknesses and resistivities. The result of the interpreted seismic data revealed two geovelocity layers, with velocities ranging between 478m/s to 1666m/s for the first layer and 1166m/s to 7141m/s for the second layer. From the combined results of the two techniques, it was suggestive that all the three unproductive boreholes were drilled at points that were neither weathered nor fractured. It was, therefore, suggested that new boreholes should be drilled at areas identified with depressed bedrock topography having geophysical evidence of intense weathering and fracturing within the fresh basement.

Keywords: groundwater, Kujama prison farm, kaduna, nigeria, seismic refraction, vertical electrical sounding

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: P. Mambanga, Goon, L. O. Amusa

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The purpose of the study was to investigate the socio-cultural factors hindering sport participation among female students in the Centre for Biokinetics, Recreation and Sport Science, University of Venda. A descriptive survey of 100 female student selected by simple random sampling was used and utilises the close ended questionnaire designed in a likert format was use for data collection. Face and content validity was employed in which the supervisor went through the instrument and correct and accept it thus checking the validity of the instrument. The test-retest approach was used to test the reliability of the instrument. Ethical considerations were ensured and confidentiality respected. Data was collected and presented in tables and results interpreted. Chi square which is a measure of non-parametric investigation was employed in order to analyse the observed and expected scores, with the probability value was set at 0.05 levels of significance on a two-tailed test of the hypotheses formulated for the study. Findings of the study established significant socio-cultural factors that hinder female sport participation among female students in the Centre for Biokinetics, Recreation and Sport Science. The study concluded that the low level participation of female students at the University of Venda might be as a result of socio-cultural factors.

Keywords: female students, sport participation, University of Venda, biokinetic

Procedia PDF Downloads 518

Authors: Flavio Cordeiro Fontanella, Asla Medeiros e Sá, Moacyr Alvim Horta Barbosa da Silva

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In the present work, we analyse the performance of football results forecasting models. In order to do so, we have performed the data collection from eight different forecasting models during the 2021 Brazilian football season. First, we guide the analysis through visual representations of the data, designed to highlight the most prominent features and enhance the interpretation of differences and similarities between the models. We propose using a 2-simplex triangle to investigate visual patterns from the results forecasting models. Next, we compute the expected points for every team playing in the championship and compare them to the final league standings, revealing interesting contrasts between actual to expected performances. Then, we evaluate forecasts’ accuracy using the Ranked Probability Score (RPS); models comparison accounts for tiny scale differences that may become consistent in time. Finally, we observe that the Wisdom of Crowds principle can be appropriately applied in the context, driving into a discussion of results forecasts usage in practice. This paper’s primary goal is to encourage football forecasts’ performance discussion. We hope to accomplish it by presenting appropriate criteria and easy-to-understand visual representations that can point out the relevant factors of the subject.

Keywords: accuracy evaluation, Brazilian championship, football results forecasts, forecasting models, visual analysis

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Authors: Gaurav Bisht, Rahul Rathnakumar, Ravikumar Duggirala

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Predictive simulations are one of the key focus areas in safety-critical industries such as aerospace and high-performance automotive engineering. The stone-chipping study is one such effort taken up by the industry to predict and evaluate the damage caused due to gravel impact on vehicles. This paper describes a finite elements based method that can simulate the ejection of gravel chips from a vehicle tire. The FE simulations were used to obtain the initial ejection velocity of the stones for various driving conditions using a computational contact mechanics approach. To verify the accuracy of the tire model, several parametric studies were conducted. The FE simulations resulted in stone loft velocities ranging from 0–8 m/s, regardless of tire speed. The stress on the tire at the instant of initial contact with the stone increased linearly with vehicle speed. Mesh convergence studies indicated that a highly resolved tire mesh tends to result in better momentum transfer between the tire and the stone. A fine tire mesh also showed a linearly increasing relationship between the tire forward speed and stone lofting speed, which was not observed in coarser meshes. However, it also highlighted a potential challenge, in that the ejection velocity vector of the stone seemed to be sensitive to the mesh, owing to the FE-based contact mechanical formulation of the problem.

Keywords: abaqus, contact mechanics, foreign object debris, stone chipping

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Jurica Hižak

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Getting to know the agents, i.e., identifying the free riders in a population, can be considered one of the main challenges in establishing cooperation. An ordinary memory-one agent such as Tit-for-tat may learn “who is who” in the population through direct interactions. Past experiences serve them as a landmark to know with whom to cooperate and against whom to retaliate in the next encounter. However, this kind of learning is risky and expensive. A cheaper and less painful way to detect free riders may be achieved by gossiping. For this reason, as part of this research, a special type of Tit-for-tat agent was designed – a “Gossip-Tit-for-tat” agent that can share data with other agents of its kind. The performances of both strategies, ordinary Tit-for-tat and Gossip-Tit-for-tat, against Always-defect have been compared in the finite-game framework of the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma via the Moran process. Agents were able to move in a random-walk fashion, and they were programmed to play Prisoner’s Dilemma each time they met. Moreover, at each step, one randomly selected individual was eliminated, and one individual was reproduced in accordance with the Moran process of selection. In this way, the size of the population always remained the same. Agents were selected for reproduction via the roulette wheel rule, i.e., proportionally to the relative fitness of the strategy. The absorption probability was calculated after the population had been absorbed completely by cooperators, which means that all the states have been occupied and all of the transition probabilities have been determined. It was shown that gossip increases absorption probabilities and therefore enhances the evolution of cooperation in the population.

Keywords: cooperation, gossip, indirect reciprocity, Moran process, prisoner’s dilemma, tit-for-tat

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Aftab Ahmed, Farhan Saeed, Muhammad Afzaal, Shinawar Waseem Ali, Ali Imran, Sadaf Munir

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Malnutrition is a globally increasing public health concern among children; it affects number of school children influencing their growth, development and academic performance. The tenet of the current cross sectional study was to assess the nutritional biomarkers of school going children of age 12-15 years resulting in stunting, underweight, overweight, bone deformities and other health disparities in nutritionally deprived urban and rural populations of Pakistan. A sample size comprising of 180 school going children was stipulated from the targeted urban and rural populations. The fallouts of investigation unveiled that both rural and urban populations were experiencing nutritional challenges however; on account of awareness paucity the rustic population was nutritionally more compromised. Hematological tests elucidated 16.7% and 7.8% cases for high glucose level, 35.6% and 27.8% cases for low hemoglobin levels, 14.4% and 15.6% cases for low calcium indices, 12.2% and 4.4% high white blood cell count (WBC), 20% and 14.4% low red blood cell count, 76.7% and 74.4% low hematocrit (HCT) values, among the rural and urban populations respectively. The above mentioned outcomes can serve as a way forward for policy and law maker institutions to curb the possible barricades in the way of healthy nutritional status in these areas

Keywords: malnutrition, hematological study, child nutrition, bone mineral density, calcium, RBC

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Ahmed Al Khamisi

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The Disaster Preparedness Standard (DPS) is one of the elements that is evaluated by the Accreditation Canada International (ACI). ACI emphasizes to train and educate all staff, including service providers and senior leaders, on emergency and disaster preparedness upon the orientation and annually thereafter. Lack of awareness and deficit of knowledge among the healthcare providers about DPS have been noticed in a tertiary hospital where ACI standards were implemented. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a video-based e-learning (VB-EL) module that explains the hospital’s disaster plan in a simple language which will be easily accessible to all healthcare providers through the hospital’s website. The healthcare disaster preparedness coordinator in the targeted hospital will be responsible to ensure that VB-EL is ready by 25 April 2019. This module will be developed based on the Kirkpatrick evaluation method. In fact, VB-EL combines different data forms such as images, motion, sounds, text in a complementary fashion which will suit diverse learning styles and individual learning pace of healthcare providers. Moreover, the module can be adjusted easily than other tools to control the information that healthcare providers receive. It will enable healthcare providers to stop, rewind, fast-forward, and replay content as many times as needed. Some anticipated limitations in the development of this module include challenges of preparing VB-EL content and resistance from healthcare providers.

Keywords: Accreditation Canada International, Disaster Preparedness Standard, Kirkpatrick evaluation method, video-based e-learning

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Authors: Zheng Sun, Weiwei Cui, Xiaodong Ma, Hongxin Jin, Dongpao Hong, Jinsong Yang, Jingyi Sun

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With the improvement of the performance and complexity of modern equipment, automatic test system (ATS) becomes widely used for condition monitoring and fault diagnosis. However, the conventional ATS mainly works in a serial mode, and lacks the ability of testing several equipments at the same time. That leads to low test efficiency and ATS redundancy. Especially for a large majority of equipment under test, the conventional ATS cannot meet the requirement of efficient testing. To reduce the support resource and increase test efficiency, we propose a method of design for the parallel test based on the embedded system in this paper. Firstly, we put forward the general framework of the parallel test system, and the system contains a central management system (CMS) and several distributed test subsystems (DTS). Then we give a detailed design of the system. For the hardware of the system, we use embedded architecture to design DTS. For the software of the system, we use test program set to improve the test adaption. By deploying the parallel test system, the time to test five devices is now equal to the time to test one device in the past. Compared with the conventional test system, the proposed test system reduces the size and improves testing efficiency. This is of great significance for equipment to be put into operation swiftly. Finally, we take an industrial control system as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The result shows that the method is reasonable, and the efficiency is improved up to 500%.

Keywords: parallel test, embedded system, automatic test system, automatic test system (ATS), central management system, central management system (CMS), distributed test subsystems, distributed test subsystems (DTS)

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Authors: Anyeres N. Atehortua Jimenez, J. David Lambraño, Juan Carlos Muñoz

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Navier-Stokes equations (NSE), which describe the dynamics of a fluid, have an important application on modeling waves used for data inversion techniques as full waveform inversion (FWI). In this work a linearized version of NSE and its variables, neglecting deviatoric terms of stress tensor, is presented. In order to get a theoretical modeling of pressure p(x,t) and wave velocity profile c(x,t), a wave equation of visco-acoustic medium (VAE) is written. A change of variables p(x,t)=q(x,t)h(ρ), is made on the equation for the VAE leading to a well known Klein-Gordon equation (KGE) describing waves propagating in variable density medium (ρ) with dispersive term α^2(x). KGE is reduced to a Poisson equation and solved by proposing a specific function for α^2(x) accounting for the energy dissipation and dispersion. Finally, an integral form solution is derived for p(x,t), c(x,t) and kinematics variables like particle velocity v(x,t), displacement u(x,t) and bulk modulus function k_b(x,t). Further, it is compared this visco-acoustic formulation with another form broadly used in the geophysics; it is argued that this formalism is more general and, given its integral form, it may offer several advantages from the modern parallel computing point of view. Applications to minimize the errors in modeling for FWI applied to oils resources in geophysics are discussed.

Keywords: Navier-Stokes equations, modeling, visco-acoustic, inversion FWI

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Authors: Hannah Wamaitha Irungu

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Educational reforms have been made from time to time since independence in Kenya. Kenya previously had a curriculum system coined as 8.4.4, where learners go through 8 years of primary, 4 years of secondary, and 4 years of tertiary or college education. The 8.4.4 system was very theoretical, examinational oriented, lacked career guidance, lacked I.C.T. infrastructure and had the pressure for exam grading results to move to the next level. Kenya is now implementing a Competency Based Curriculum (C.B.C) system of education. C.B.C, on the other hand, is learner based. It focuses mainly on the ability of the learners, their strengths/likings, not what they are systematically trained to pass exams only for progression. The academic pressure will be eased, which gives a chance to all learners to pursue their fields of strength and not only those endowed academically/theoretically. With C.B.C., each learner’s progress is nurtured and monitored over a period of 14 years that are divided into four major levels (2-6-3-3): 1. Pre-primary education [pp1 and pp2]-2 years; 2. Lower-primary [grades 1 - 6]-6 years; 3. Junior-secondary [grades 7 - 9]-3 years; 4. Senior secondary [grades 10 - 12]-3 years. In this paper, we look at these aspects with regards to C.B.C.: What necessitates it, its key strengths/benefits and application in a developing country; Implementation, what has worked and what is not working with the approach taken by Kenya education stakeholders during this process; Stakeholders, who should be involved/own the process; Conclusion, lessons learned, current status and recommendations going forward.

Keywords: benefits, challenges, competency, curricula, Kenya, successes

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Authors: Bharatkumar Doshi

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Electro-Magnetic Pulse Welding (EMPW) is a solid state welding process carried out at almost room temperature, in which joining is enabled by high impact velocity deformation. In this process, high voltage capacitor’s stored energy is discharged in an EM coil resulting in a damped, sinusoidal current with an amplitude of several hundred kiloamperes. Due to these transient magnetic fields of few tens of Tesla near the coil is generated. As the conductive (tube) part is positioned in this area, an opposing eddy current is induced in this part. Consequently, high Lorentz forces act on the part, leading to acceleration away from the coil. In case of a tube, it gets compressed under forming velocities of more than 300 meters per second. After passing the joining gap it collides with the second metallic joining rod, leading to the formation of a jet under appropriate collision conditions. Due to the prevailing high pressure, metallurgical bonding takes place. A characteristic feature is the wavy interface resulting from the heavy plastic deformations. In the process, the formation of intermetallic compounds which might deteriorate the weld strength can be avoided, even for metals with dissimilar thermal properties. In order to optimize the process parameters like current, voltage, inductance, coil dimensions, workpiece dimensions, air gap, impact velocity, effective plastic strain, shear stress acting in the welding zone/impact zone etc. are very critical and important to establish. These process parameters could be determined by simulation using Finite Element Methods (FEM) in which electromagnetic –structural couple field analysis is performed. The feasibility of welding could thus be investigated by varying the parameters in the simulation using COMSOL. Simulation results shall be applied in performing the preliminary experiments of welding the different alloy steel tubes and/or alloy steel to other materials. The single turn coil (S.S.304) with field shaper (copper) has been designed and manufactured. The preliminary experiments are performed using existing EMPW facility available Institute for Plasma Research, Gandhinagar, India. The experiments are performed at 22kV charged into 64µF capacitor bank and the energy is discharged into single turn EM coil. Welding of axi-symetric components such as aluminum tube and rod has been proven experimentally using EMPW techniques. In this paper EM coil design, manufacturing, Electromagnetic-structural FEM simulation of Magnetic Pulse Welding and preliminary experiment results is reported.

Keywords: COMSOL, EMPW, FEM, Lorentz force

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Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

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The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix

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Authors: Kopila Shrestha

Abstract:

Adolescent sexual reproductive health is one of the most important issues in the world. Reproductive ability is taking place at an earlier age and adolescents are indulging in risk taking behaviors day by day. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in Kathmandu valley to assess the knowledge regarding sexual and reproductive health among adolescent. Total of 200 respondents were selected through non-probability convenient sampling technique. Self-administered written questionnaires using semi-structured questions were used. The collected data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics such as frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation and inferential statistics such as Chi-square test. The findings revealed that most of the respondents had adequate knowledge regarding transmission and protection of HIV/AIDs and STIs but still some respondents had a misconception regarding it. Few respondents had knowledge regarding legal age for marriage and the minimum age for first child bearing. The statistical analysis revealed that the total mean knowledge score with standard deviation was 45.02±8.674. Nearly half of the respondents (49.5%) had a moderate level of knowledge, followed by an inadequate level of knowledge 29.5% and adequate level of knowledge 21.0% regarding sexual and reproductive health. There was significant association of level of knowledge with area of residence (p-value .002) but no association with age (p-value .067), sex (p-value .999), religion (p-value .082) and ethnicity (p-value .114). Nearly half of the participants possess some knowledge about sexual and reproductive health but still effective educational intervention is required in higher secondary school to encourage more sensible and healthy behaviour.

Keywords: adolescents, higher secondary school, knowledge, sexual and reproductive health

Procedia PDF Downloads 285