Search results for: Static synchronous series compensator (SSSC)

Authors: Muhammad Samiullah

Abstract:

Religion and spirit always goes side by side. In this era spirit and religion are studied separately with thought of an anti-religious phenomenon is there with its vast impacts. Non-religious mind and religious one have a lot of things that differs, they have spiritual struggles.so there is theme arises that is in the name of non-religious spirituality(SBNR). The thinking prevailing in west and now in east in reverse of the religious institutional thought and spirituality. Religious disputes created an image to the world that is nontolerant and companionate, rising a question of god existence and self-existence. Thus giving rise in Atheism, nihilism, free thinking. The thinking of spirituality also gone in another side with superstitions and spiritual meditation. Christian religious bodies and scholar criticized the stance with their religious aspect but there should be an Islamic counter narrative should be there. Here in this dissertation the phenomenon is addressed and analyzed in respect with some of the literature presented from 2014 till present year. The phenomenon was not analyzed before in broader sense. There are some introductory and static views presented in this regard. So there is a literature gap to be filled by this effort, the Muslim counter narrative is still not there though Christians do their part.

Keywords: SBNR, non-spirituality, superstitions, Sam Harris

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Authors: Ali Ammari, Karin Schroen

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In brewing industries, stripping is a downstream process to separate volatiles from beer. Due to physiochemical similarities between flavour components, the selectivity of this method is not favourable. Besides, the presence of non-volatile compounds such as proteins and carbohydrates may affect the separation of flavours due to their retaining properties. By using a stripping column with structured packing coupled with a gas chromatography, in this work, the overall mass transfer coefficient along with their corresponding equilibrium data was investigated for a model solution consist of water, ethanol, ethyl acetate and isoamyl acetate. Static headspace analysis also was employed to derive equilibrium data for flavours in the presence of beer dry matter. As it was expected ethanol and dry matter showed retention properties; however, the effect of viscosity in mass transfer coefficient was discarded due to the fact that the viscosity of solution decreased during stripping. The effect of ethanol and beer dry matter were mapped to be used for designing stripping could.

Keywords: flavour, headspace, Henry’s coefficient, mass transfer coefficient, stripping

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Authors: Raghabendra Yadav, Baochun Chen, Huihui Yuan, Zhibin Lian

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Concrete Filled Steel Tube (CFST) columns are widely used in Civil Engineering Structures due to their abundant properties. CFST-RC column is a built up column in which CFST members are connected with RC web. The CFST-RC column has excellent static and earthquake resistant properties, such as high strength, high ductility and large energy absorption capacity. CFST-RC columns have been adopted as piers in Ganhaizi Bridge in high seismic risk zone with a highest pier of 107m. The experimental investigation on scaled models of similar type of the CFST-RC pier are carried out. The experimental investigation on scaled models of similar type of the CFST-RC pier are carried out. Under cyclic loading, the hysteretic performance of CFST-RC columns, such as failure modes, ductility, load displacement hysteretic curves, energy absorption capacity, strength and stiffness degradation are studied in this paper.

Keywords: CFST, cyclic load, Ganhaizi bridge, seismic performance

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Authors: Maria V. Morozova, Zoya A. Mikhaylovskaya, Elena S. Buyanova, Sofia A. Petrova, Ksenia V. Arishina, Robert G. Zaharov

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The present work is devoted to the investigation of two series of doped bismuth molybdates: Bi₂₆-₂ₓMn₂ₓMo₁₀O₆₉-d and Bi₂₆Mo₁₀-₂yMn₂yO₆₉-d. Complex oxides were synthesized by conventional solid state technology and by co-precipitation method. The products were identified by powder diffraction. The powders and ceramic samples were examined by means of densitometry, laser diffraction, and electron microscopic methods. Porosity of the ceramic materials was estimated using the hydrostatic method. The electrical conductivity measurements were carried out using impedance spectroscopy method.

Keywords: bismuth molybdate, columnar structures, impedance spectroscopy, oxygen ionic conductors

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Authors: André Furtado, Hugo Rodrigues, António Arêde, Humberto Varum

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Besides characterized as non-structural elements, infill masonry (IM) walls have an important contribute in the structural response of reinforced concrete structures as proved by the damages observed recent earthquakes. In particular, the out-of-plane (OOP) collapse has been one of the most observed failure mechanism. The aim of this research is to contribute to the increase of understanding regarding the OOP behaviour of full-scale infill panels considering different variables such as panel support width and axial load on the top of columns. For this, it was carried out in the Laboratory of Earthquake and Structural Engineering (LESE) an experimental campaign of five full-scale IM walls subjected to OOP distributed cyclic loadings. Specimens with different variables such as previous in-plane damage, support conditions, axial load on the top of the columns were studied. The results will be presented and discussed along the manuscript in terms of force-displacement hysteretic curves, cracking pattern, initial stiffness, stiffness degradation and accumulative energy dissipation.

Keywords: infill masonry walls, experimental testing, out-of-plane, full-scale

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Authors: Mustafa Albayrak, Mete Onur Kaman, Ilyas Bozkurt

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In this study, the necessary material parameters were determined to be able to conduct progressive damage analysis of layered composites under low velocity impact by using the MAT162 material module in the LS-DYNA program. The material module MAT162 based on Hashin failure criterion requires 34 parameters in total. Some of these parameters were obtained directly as a result of dynamic and quasi-static mechanical tests, and the remaining part was calibrated and determined by comparing numerical and experimental results. Woven glass/epoxy was used as the composite material and it was produced by vacuum infusion method. In the numerical model, composites are modeled as three-dimensional and layered. As a result, the acquisition of MAT162 material module parameters, which will enable progressive damage analysis, is given in detail and step by step, and the selection methods of the parameters are explained. Numerical data consistent with the experimental results are given in graphics.

Keywords: Composite Impact, Finite Element Simulation, Progressive Damage Analyze, LS-DYNA, MAT162

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Authors: Maciej Jedrzejczyk, Karolina Marzantowicz

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Traditional utility value chain is being transformed during last few years into unbundled markets. Increased distributed generation of energy is one of considerable challenges faced by Smart Grid networks. New sources of energy introduce volatile demand response which has a considerable impact on traditional middlemen in E&U market. The purpose of this research is to search for ways to allow near-real-time electricity markets to transact with surplus energy based on accurate time synchronous measurements. A proposed framework evaluates the use of secure peer-2-peer (P2P) communication and distributed transaction ledgers to provide flat hierarchy, and allow real-time insights into present and forecasted grid operations, as well as state and health of the network. An objective is to achieve dynamic grid operations with more efficient resource usage, higher security of supply and longer grid infrastructure life cycle. Methods used for this study are based on comparative analysis of different distributed ledger technologies in terms of scalability, transaction performance, pluggability with external data sources, data transparency, privacy, end-to-end security and adaptability to various market topologies. An intended output of this research is a design of a framework for safer, more efficient and scalable Smart Grid network which is bridging a gap between traditional components of the energy network and individual energy producers. Results of this study are ready for detailed measurement testing, a likely follow-up in separate studies. New platforms for Smart Grid achieving measurable efficiencies will allow for development of new types of Grid KPI, multi-smart grid branches, markets, and businesses.

Keywords: autonomous agents, Distributed computing, distributed ledger technologies, large scale systems, micro grids, peer-to-peer networks, Self-organization, self-stabilization, smart grids

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Authors: Jing-Fung Lin, Jer-Jia Sheu

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In this study, an approach has been developed for the noise reduction of a muffler. The transmission loss (TL) in the muffler is maximized by the use of a double-chamber muffler, and a baffle with a hole is inserted between chambers. Taguchi method is used to optimize the design for the acoustical performance of the muffler. The TL performance is evaluated by COMSOL software. The excellent parameter combination for the maximum TL is attained as high as 35.30 dB in a wide frequency range from 10 Hz to 1400 Hz. The influence sequence of four parameters on TL is determined by the range analysis. The effects of length and expansion ratio of the first chamber on TL performance for the excellent program were discussed. Comparisons of the TL results from different designs are made.

Keywords: acoustics, baffle, chamber, muffler, Taguchi method, transmission loss

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Authors: Ravindra Dastikop, G. S. Thyagaraju, U. P. Kulkarni

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Even though the number of context aware applications is increasing day by day along with the users, till today there is no generic programming paradigm for context aware applications. This situation could be remedied by design and developing the appropriate context modeling and programming paradigm for context aware applications. In this paper, we are proposing the static context model and metrics for validating the expressiveness and understandability of the model. The proposed context modeling is a way of describing a situation of user using context entities , attributes and relationships .The model which is an extended and hybrid version of ER model, ontology model and Graphical model is specifically meant for expressing and understanding the user situation in context aware environment. The model is useful for understanding context aware problems, preparing documentation and designing programs and databases. The model makes use of context entity attributes relationship (CEAR) diagram for representation of association between the context entities and attributes. We have identified a new set of graphical notations for improving the expressiveness and understandability of context from the end user perspective .

Keywords: user context, context entity, context entity attributes, situation, sensors, devices, relationships, actors, expressiveness, understandability

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Authors: Heri Kuswanto, Philipp Sibbertsen, Irhamah

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A Wald type test to distinguish between long memory and ESTAR nonlinearity has been developed. The test uses a directed-Wald statistic to overcome the problem of restricted parameters under the alternative. The test is derived from a model specification i.e. allows the transition parameter to appear as a nuisance parameter in the transition function. A simulation study has been conducted and it indicates that the approach leads a test with good size and power properties to distinguish between stationary long memory and ESTAR.

Keywords: directed-Wald test, ESTAR, long memory, distinguish

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Authors: Thanawat Chuleekiat

Abstract:

Socketing of bored piles in rock is always seen as a matter of debate on construction sites between consultants and contractors. The socketing depth normally depends on the type of rock, depth at which the rock is available below the pile cap and load carrying capacity of the pile. In this paper, the review of field load test data of drilled shaft socketed in weathered limestone conducted using conventional static pile load test and dynamic pile load test was made to evaluate a unit shaft friction for the bored piles socketed in weathered limestone (weak rock). The borehole drilling data were also reviewed in conjunction with the pile test result. In addition, the back-calculated unit shaft friction was reviewed against various empirical methods for bored piles socketed in weak rock. The paper concludes with an estimated ultimate unit shaft friction from the case study in Qatar for preliminary design.

Keywords: piled foundation, weathered limestone, shaft friction, rock socket, pile load test

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Authors: Payal Patel

Abstract:

Textile machinery is one of the fastest evolving areas which has an application of mechanical engineering. The modular approach towards the processing right from the stage of cotton to the fabric, allows us to observe the result of each process on its input. Cost and space being the major constraints. The flyer is a component of roving machine, which is used as a part of spinning process. In the present work using the application of Hyper Works, the flyer arm has been modified which saves the material used for manufacturing the flyer. The size optimization of the flyer is carried out with the objective of reduction in weight under the constraints of standard operating conditions. The new design of the flyer is proposed and validated using the module of HyperWorks which is equally strong, but light weighted compared to the existing design. Dynamic balancing of the optimized model is carried out to align a principal inertia axis with the geometric axis of rotation. For the balanced geometry of flyer, air resistance is obtained theoretically and with Gambit and Fluent. Static analysis of the balanced geometry has been done to verify the constraint of operating condition. Comparison of weight, deflection, and factor of safety has been made for different aluminum alloys.

Keywords: flyer, size optimization, textile, weight

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Authors: Khaled Abkar Alkodimi

Abstract:

This paper attempts to explore Bishop’s eco-poetics and environmental consciousness from an ecocritical perspective. It focuses on her representations of animals, environments, and natural phenomena and the connection between a broad range of human activities and flora, fauna habitats. Indeed, Bishop shows a sense of human responsibility towards the earth in her peculiar treatment of place and livestock, which appears to be more than a static growth process. Her poetry is totally contrary to egoism and egotism, and this can be easily noticed in her subjective understanding of nature and creatures. The findings show Bishop as an eco-poet who committed herself and her poetry to highlight the significance of nature and world life at large. This is obvious through her representation of natural phenomena such as seasonal cycles, weather, and physical and ecological elements, including air, earth, and water, which essentially constitute and inform the poet’s environmental thoughts. Examining Bishop’s conception of a human relationship with ‘external nature through the examination of her poetic language, this study shows how the environmental imagination can suggest social responsibility to readers.

Keywords: elizabeth bishop, eco-criticism, eco-poetry, environmental consciousness, man-nature relationship

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Authors: Shivani Khare

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It is of paramount concern for economists to uncover the factors that determine human capital development, considered now to be one of the major factors behind economic growth and development. However, no human action is isolated but rather works within the set-up of the society. In recent years, a new field of investigation has come up that analyses the relationships that exist between social and human capital. Along these lines, this paper explores the effect of social capital on the indicators of human capital development – life expectancy at birth, mean years of schooling, and per capita income. The applied part of the analysis is performed using a panel data model for OECD countries and by using a series of chronological periods that within the 2005–2020 time frame.

Keywords: social capital, human capital development, trust, social networks, socioeconomics

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Authors: Junhong Feng, Wenyu Lu, Xinhong Cheng, Li Zheng, Yuehui Yu

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The effects of proton irradiation on the properties of gate oxide were evaluated by monitoring the static parameters (such as threshold voltage and on-resistance) and dynamic parameters (Miller plateau time) of 1700V SiC VDMOS before and after proton irradiation. The incident proton energy was 3MeV, and the doses were 5 × 10¹² P / cm², 1 × 10¹³ P / cm², respectively. The results show that the threshold voltage of MOS exhibits negative drift under proton irradiation, and the near-interface traps in the gate oxide layer are occupied by holes generated by the ionization effect of irradiation, thus forming more positive charges. The basis for selecting TMiller is that the change time of Vgs is the time when Vds just shows an upward trend until it rises to a stable value. The degradation of the turn-off time of the Miller platform verifies that the capacitance Cgd becomes larger, reflecting that the gate oxide layer is introduced into the trap by the displacement effect caused by proton irradiation, and the interface state deteriorates. As a more sensitive area in the irradiation process, the gate oxide layer will be optimized for its parameters (such as thickness, type, etc.) in subsequent studies.

Keywords: SiC VDMOS, proton radiation, Miller time, gate oxide

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Authors: Aena Iqbal

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The lack of access to maternal and reproductive health in Pakistan poses a great threat to global public health. Obstetric issues, including vesicovaginal fistulas (VVF), are the most common in South Asian countries, leaving women in a more vulnerable state. Koohi Goth Women’s Hospital offers free VVF operations, which draws in women from all over Pakistan. Although reproductive health is being handled, mental health is often neglected in these scenarios. Using a series of questions inspired by the Warwick Edinburgh Model, this paper builds on the results from interviewing women who have received vesicovaginal fistula repair surgery on their mental health, a taboo topic in Pakistan.

Keywords: obstetrics, VVF, Pakistan, reproductive health

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Authors: M. Pramila Devi, N. V. N. Indra Kiran

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Control charts, predominantly in the form of X-bar chart, are important tools in statistical process control (SPC). They are useful in determining whether a process is behaving as intended or there are some unnatural causes of variation. A process is out of control if a point falls outside the control limits or a series of point’s exhibit an unnatural pattern. In this paper, a study is carried out on four training algorithms for CCPs recognition. For those algorithms optimal structure is identified and then they are studied for type I and type II errors for generalization without early stopping and with early stopping and the best one is proposed.

Keywords: control chart pattern recognition, neural network, backpropagation, generalization, early stopping

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Authors: Radha H. R., Krupakara P. V.

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Metal matrix composites are attracting today's manufacturers of many automobile parts so that they lost longer and their properties can be tailored according to the requirement. In this paper an attempt has been made to study the corrosion characteristics of Aluminium 6061 / quartz metal matrix composites in alkali medium like sodium hydroxide solutions. Metal matrix composites are heterogeneous mixtures of a matrix and reinforcement. In this work the matrix selected is Aluminium 6061 alloy which is commercially available and the reinforcement selected is quartz particulates of 50-80 micron size which is available in plenty in and around Bangalore district, India. Composites containing Aluminium 6061 with 2, 4 and 6 weight percent of quartz are manufactured by liquid melt metallurgy technique using vortex method. Corrosion tests like static weight loss and open circuit potential tests are conducted in different concentrated solutions of sodium hydroxide. To compare the results the matrix Aluminium 6061 is also casted in the same way. Specimens for the test are prepared according to ASTM standards. In all the tests the metal matrix composites showed better corrosion resistance than matrix alloy.

Keywords: aluminium 6061, corrosion, quartz, vortex

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Authors: K. Thawichai, R. Pornthep

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The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of a four week training period of combined plyometric and resistance training or resistance training alone on muscle strength and sprint performance in wheelchair racing athletes. The participants were sixteen healthy male wheelchair racing athletes of the Thai national team. All participants were randomly assignments into two groups in the plyometric and resistance training group (n = 8) performed plyometric exercises followed by resistance training, whereas the resistance training group (n = 8) performed static stretching and the same resistance training program. At baseline and after training all participants were tested on 1-RM bench press for muscle strength and 100-m cycling sprint performance. The results of this study show that the plyometric and resistance training group made significantly greater improvements in overall muscle strength and sprint performance than the resistance training group following training. In conclusion, these findings suggest that the addition of a four week plyometric and resistance training program more beneficial than resistance training alone on muscle strength and sprint performance in wheelchair racing athletes.

Keywords: plyometric, resistance training, strength, sprint, wheelchair athletes

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Authors: Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, Ángeles Godoy-Durán, Juan C. Pérez-Mesa, Laura Piedra-Muñoz

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Eco-efficiency is receiving ever-increasing interest as an indicator of sustainability, as it links environmental and economic performances in productive activities. In agriculture, these indicators and their determinants prove relevant due to the close relationships in this activity between the use of natural resources, which is generally limited, and the provision of basic goods to society. In this context, various analyses have focused on eco-efficiency by considering individual family farms as the basic production unit. However, not only must the measure of efficiency be taken into account, but also the existence of a series of factors which constitute socio-economic, political-institutional, and environmental determinants. Said factors have been studied to a lesser extent in the literature. The present work analyzes eco-efficiency at a micro level, focusing on small-scale family farms as the main decision-making units in horticulture in southeast Spain, a sector which represents about 30% of the fresh vegetables produced in the country and about 20% of those consumed in Europe. The objectives of this study are a) to obtain a series of eco-efficiency indicators by estimating several pressure ratios and economic value added in farming, b) to analyze the influence of specific social, economic and environmental variables on the aforementioned eco-efficiency indicators. The present work applies the method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which calculates different combinations of environmental pressures (water usage, phytosanitary contamination, waste management, etc.) and aggregate economic value. In a second stage, an analysis is conducted on the influence of the socio-economic and environmental characteristics of family farms on the eco-efficiency indicators, as endogeneous variables, through the use of truncated regression and bootstrapping techniques, following Simar-Wilson methodology. The results reveal considerable inefficiency in aspects such as waste management, while there is relatively little inefficiency in water usage and nitrogen balance. On the other hand, characteristics, such as product specialization, the adoption of quality certifications and belonging to a cooperative do have a positive impact on eco-efficiency. These results are deemed to be of interest to agri-food systems structured on small-scale producers, and they may prove useful to policy-makers as regards managing public environmental programs in agriculture.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, eco-efficiency, family farms, horticulture, socioeconomic features

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Authors: Vilma Deltuvaitė

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Comparisons of financial development across countries are central to answering many of the questions on factors leading to economic development. For this reason this study analyzes the implications of financial system’s development on country’s economic development. The aim of the article: to analyze the impact of financial system’s development on economic development. The following research methods were used: systemic, logical and comparative analysis of scientific literature, analysis of statistical data, time series model (Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model). The empirical results suggest about positive short and long term effect of stock market development on GDP per capita.

Keywords: banking sector, economic development, financial system’s development, stock market, private bond market

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Authors: S. Nazhan, Hassan K. Al-Musawi, Khalid A. Humood

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This paper reports on an experimental investigation into the influence of current modulation on the properties of a vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) with a direct square wave modulation. The optical output power response, as a function of the pumping current, modulation frequency, and amplitude, is measured for an 850 nm VCSEL. We demonstrate that modulation frequency and amplitude play important roles in reducing the VCSEL’s power consumption for optical generation. Indeed, even when the biasing current is below the static threshold, the VCSEL emits optical power under the square wave modulation. The power consumed by the device to generate light is significantly reduced to > 50%, which is below the threshold current, in response to both the modulation frequency and amplitude. An operating VCSEL device at low power is very desirable for less thermal effects, which are essential for a high-speed modulation bandwidth.

Keywords: vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers, VCSELs, optical power generation, power consumption, square wave modulation

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Authors: Tahany W. Sadak, Fouly, A. Anwer, M. Rizk

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The current investigation presents a study on the hydraulic performance of an electro-hydraulic servo solenoid valve controlled linear piston used in hydraulic systems. Advanced methods have been used to measure and record laboratory experiments, to ensure accurate analysis and evaluation. Experiments have been conducted under different values of temperature (28, 40 and 50 °C), supply pressure (10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 bar), system stiffness (32 N/mm), and load (0.0 & 5560 N). It is concluded that increasing temperature of hydraulic oil increases the quantity of flow rate, so it achieves an increase of the quantity of flow by 5.75 % up to 48.8 % depending on operating conditions. The values of pressure decay at low temperature are less than the values at high temperature. The frequency increases with the increase of the temperature. When we connect the springs to the system, it decreases system frequency. These results are very useful in the process of packing and manufacturing of fluid products, where the properties are not affected by 50 °C, so energy and time are saved.

Keywords: electro-hydraulic servo valve, fluid power control system, system stiffness, static and dynamic performance

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Authors: Amira Zouaoui, Hamed Belloumi, Ferid Kourda

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This paper presents the analysis and design of a DC–AC resonant converter applied to induction heating. The proposed topology based on the series-parallel half-bridge resonant inverter is described. It can operate with Zero-Voltage Switching (ZVS). At the resonant frequency, the secondary current is amplified over the heating coil with small switching angle, which keeps the reactive power low and permits heating with small current through the resonant inductor and the transformer. The operation and control principle of the proposed high frequency inverter is described and verified through simulated and experimental results.

Keywords: induction heating, inverter, high frequency, resonant

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Authors: A. Gherbi, L. Dahmani, A. Boudjemia

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This paper presents the Finite Element Method (FEM) for analyzing the failure pattern of rectangular slab with various edge conditions. Non-Linear static analysis is carried out using ANSYS 15 Software. Using SOLID65 solid elements, the compressive crushing of concrete is facilitated using plasticity algorithm, while the concrete cracking in tension zone is accommodated by the nonlinear material model. Smeared reinforcement is used and introduced as a percentage of steel embedded in concrete slab. The behavior of the analyzed concrete slab has been observed in terms of the crack pattern and displacement for various loading and boundary conditions. The finite element results are also compared with the experimental data. One of the other objectives of the present study is to show how similar the crack path found by ANSYS program to those observed for the yield line analysis. The smeared reinforcement method is found to be more practical especially for the layered elements like concrete slabs. The value of this method is that it does not require explicit modeling of the rebar, and thus a much coarser mesh can be defined.

Keywords: ANSYS, cracking pattern, displacements, reinforced concrete slab, smeared reinforcements

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Authors: Hamidreza Ahmadi, Majid Abbasalizadeh, Ghasem Yazdani, Masoud Ahmadi

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In this paper a special kind of aerodynamic system as a spoiler has been designed and tried to show effects of this devise on braking system of vehicle. Moreover, position of this spoiler has been considered in order to find optimum point from safety and highest rate of braking view for spoiler. Fluent software is our main tool to calculate rate of extra force that is produced by spoiler and this article has been tried to use various figures that are showed effects of spoiler at different speeds, angles and also heights. Other major points in this paper are static pressure of vehicle at different speed and statues. Undoubtedly, shape of spoiler would be very important, so in this investigation spoiler has been designed and proposed after a lot of simulation for different shape of spoiler. In the end, there is very important part as validation since these simulations must be validated by experimental way to prove our claims. In this case, a special kind of BMW has been simulated and results have been compared by experimental results that have been presented by BMW Company. Difference between simulation results and experimental results are very little and it could be a suitable validation for this project.

Keywords: drag force, down force, vehicle, spoiler

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Michael Heuer, Ayoub Al-Hamadi, Alexander Rain, Marc-Michael Meinecke

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Vulnerable road users, e.g. pedestrians, have a high impact on fatal accident numbers. To reduce these statistics, car manufactures are intensively developing suitable safety systems. Hereby, fast and reliable environment recognition is a major challenge. In this paper we describe a tracking approach that is only based on a 24 GHz radar sensor. While common radar signal processing loses much information, we make use of a track-before-detect filter to incorporate raw measurements. It is explained how the Range-Doppler spectrum can help to indicated pedestrians and stabilize tracking even in occultation scenarios compared to sensors in series.

Keywords: radar, pedestrian detection, active safety, sensor

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Authors: Samuel Munaf, Kevin Swingler, Franz Brülisauer, Anthony O’Hare, George Gunn, Aaron Reeves

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Background: Avian influenza, more commonly known as Bird flu, is a viral zoonotic respiratory disease stemming from various species of poultry, including pets and migratory birds. Researchers have purported that the accessibility of health information online, in addition to the low-cost data collection methods the internet provides, has revolutionized the methods in which epidemiological and disease surveillance data is utilized. This paper examines the feasibility of using internet data sources, such as Twitter and livestock forums, for the early detection of the avian flu outbreak, through the use of text mining algorithms and social network analysis. Methods: Social media mining was conducted on Twitter between the period of 01/01/2021 to 31/12/2021 via the Twitter API in Python. The results were filtered firstly by hashtags (#avianflu, #birdflu), word occurrences (avian flu, bird flu, H5N1), and then refined further by location to include only those results from within the UK. Analysis was conducted on this text in a time-series manner to determine keyword frequencies and topic modeling to uncover insights in the text prior to a confirmed outbreak. Further analysis was performed by examining clinical signs (e.g., swollen head, blue comb, dullness) within the time series prior to the confirmed avian flu outbreak by the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA). Results: The increased search results in Google and avian flu-related tweets showed a correlation in time with the confirmed cases. Topic modeling uncovered clusters of word occurrences relating to livestock biosecurity, disposal of dead birds, and prevention measures. Conclusions: Text mining social media data can prove to be useful in relation to analysing discussed topics for epidemiological surveillance purposes, especially given the lack of applied research in the veterinary domain. The small sample size of tweets for certain weekly time periods makes it difficult to provide statistically plausible results, in addition to a great amount of textual noise in the data.

Keywords: veterinary epidemiology, disease surveillance, infodemiology, infoveillance, avian influenza, social media

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Authors: Dawood Al Chanti, Alice Caplier

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Sparse representations of signals have received a great deal of attention in recent years. In this paper, the interest of using sparse representation as a mean for performing sparse discriminative analysis between spontaneous facial expressions is demonstrated. An automatic facial expressions recognition system is presented. It uses a KSVD-SVM approach which is made of three main stages: A pre-processing and feature extraction stage, which solves the problem of shared subspace distribution based on the random projection theory, to obtain low dimensional discriminative and reconstructive features; A dictionary learning and sparse coding stage, which uses the KSVD model to learn discriminative under or over dictionaries for sparse coding; Finally a classification stage, which uses a SVM classifier for facial expressions recognition. Our main concern is to be able to recognize non-basic affective states and non-acted expressions. Extensive experiments on the JAFFE static acted facial expressions database but also on the DynEmo dynamic spontaneous facial expressions database exhibit very good recognition rates.

Keywords: dictionary learning, random projection, pose and spontaneous facial expression, sparse representation

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