Search results for: instrumental variables
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4507

Search results for: instrumental variables

3157 Correlation Study between Clinical and Radiological Findings in Knee Osteoarthritis

Authors: Nabil A. A. Mohamed, Alaa A. A. Balbaa, Khaled E. Ayad

Abstract:

Osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee is the most common form of arthritis and leads to more activity limitations (e.g., disability in walking and stair climbing) than any other disease, especially in the elderly. Recently, impaired proprioceptive accuracy of the knee has been proposed as a local factor in the onset and progression of radiographic knee OA (ROA). Purpose: To compare the clinical and radiological findings in healthy with that of knee OA. Also, to determine if there is a correlation between the clinical and radiological findings in patients with knee OA. Subjects: Fifty one patients diagnosed as unilateral or bilateral knee OA with age ranged between 35-70 years, from both gender without any previous history of knee trauma or surgery, and twenty one normal subjects with age ranged from 35 - 68 years. METHODS: peak torque/body weight (PT/BW) was recorded from knee extensors at isokinetic isometric mode at angle of 45 degree. Also, the Absolute Angular Error was recorded at 45O and 30O to measure joint position sense (JPS). They made anteroposterior (AP) plain X-rays from standing semiflexed knee position and their average score of Timed Up and Go test(TUG) and WOMAC were recorded as a measure of knee pain, stiffness and function. Comparison between the mean values of different variables in the two groups was performed using unpaired student t test. The P value less or equal to 0.05 was considered significant. Results: There were significant differences between the studied variables between the experimental and control groups except the values of AAE at 30O. Also, there were no significant correlation between the clinical findings (pain, function, muscle strength and proprioception) and the severity of arthritic changes in X-rays. CONCLUSION: From the finding of the current study we can conclude that there were a significant difference between the both groups in all studied parameters (the WOMAC, functional level, quadriceps muscle strength and the joint proprioception). Also this study did not support the dependency on radiological findings in management of knee OA as the radiological features did not necessarily indicate the level of structural damage of patients with knee OA and we should consider the clinical features in our treatment plan.

Keywords: joint position sense, peak torque, proprioception, radiological knee osteoarthritis

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3156 Research on Teachers’ Perceptions on the Usability of Classroom Space: Analysis of a Nation-Wide Questionnaire Survey in Japan

Authors: Masayuki Mori

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This study investigates the relationship between teachers’ perceptions of the usability of classroom space and various elements, including both physical and non-physical, of classroom environments. With the introduction of the GIGA School funding program in Japan in 2019, understanding its impact on learning in classroom space is crucial. The program enabled local educational authorities (LEA) to make it possible to provide one PC/tablet for each student of both elementary and junior high schools. Moreover, at the same time, the program also supported LEA to purchase other electronic devices for educational purposes such as electronic whiteboards, large displays, and real image projectors. A nationwide survey was conducted using random sampling methodology among 100 junior high schools to collect data on classroom space. Of those, 60 schools responded to the survey. The survey covered approximately fifty items, including classroom space size, class size, and educational electronic devices owned. After the data compilation, statistical analysis was used to identify correlations between the variables and to explore the extent to which classroom environment elements influenced teachers’ perceptions. Furthermore, decision tree analysis was applied to visualize the causal relationships between the variables. The findings indicate a significant negative correlation between class size and teachers’ evaluation of usability. In addition to the class size, the way students stored their belongings also influenced teachers’ perceptions. As for the placement of educational electronic devices, the installation of a projector produced a small negative correlation with teachers’ perceptions. The study suggests that while the GIGA School funding program is not significantly influential, traditional educational conditions such as class size have a greater impact on teachers’ perceptions of the usability of classroom space. These results highlight the need for awareness and strategies to integrate various elements in designing the learning environment of the classroom for teachers and students to improve their learning experience.

Keywords: classroom space, GIGA School, questionnaire survey, teachers’ perceptions

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3155 Understanding Awareness, Agency and Autonomy of Mothers and Potential of Digital Technology in Expanding Maternal Health Information Access: A Survey of Mothers in Urban India

Authors: Sumiti Saharan, Pallav Patankar, Lily W. Lee

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Understanding the health-seeking behaviors and attitudes of women towards maternal health in the context of gender roles and family dynamics is tremendously crucial for designing effective and impactful interventions aimed at improving maternal and child health outcomes. Further, as the digital world becomes more accessible and affordable, it is imperative to scope the potential of digital technology in enabling access to maternal health information in different socio-economic groups (SEGs). In the summer of 2017, we conducted a study with 500 women across different SEGs in urban India who were pregnant or had had a delivery in the last year. The study was undertaken to assess their maternal health information seeking behavior with a particular focus on probing their use of digital technology for health-related information. The study also measured women's decision-making autonomy in the context of maternal health, awareness of their rights to quality and respectful maternal healthcare, and agency to voice their rights. We probed the impact of key variables including education, age, and socioeconomic status on all outcome variables. In terms of health-seeking behaviors, we found that women heavily relied on medical professionals and/or their mothers and mothers-in-law for all maternal health advice. Digital adoption was found to be high across all SEGs, with around 70% of women from all populations using the internet several times a week. On the other hand, use of the internet for both accessing maternal health information and choosing maternity hospitals were both significantly dependent on SEG. The key reasons reported for not using the internet for health purposes were lack of awareness and lack of trust on content accuracy. Decisions around health practices and type of delivery were found to be jointly made by women and other family members. Almost all women reported their husbands to play a key role in all maternal health decisions and for decisions with a clear financial implication like choice of hospital for delivery, husbands were reported to be the sole decision maker by a majority of women. The agency of women was also found to be low in interactions with maternal healthcare providers with a third of respondents not comfortable with voicing their opinions and preferences to their doctors. Interestingly, we find that this relatively low agency was prominent in both lower middle class and middle-class SEGs. Recognition of the sociocultural determinants of behavior is the first step in developing actionable strategies for improving maternal health outcomes. Our study quantifies the agency and autonomy of women in urban India and the variables that impact them. Our findings emphasize the value of gender normative approaches that factor in the key role husbands play in guiding maternal health decisions. They also highlight the power of digital approaches for catalyzing access to maternal health information. These insights into the attitude and behaviors of mothers in context of their sociocultural environments—and their relationship with digital technology—can help pave the way towards designing effective, scalable maternal and child health programs in developing nations like India.

Keywords: access to healthcare information, behavior, digital health, maternal health

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3154 Aerodynamic Design Optimization Technique for a Tube Capsule That Uses an Axial Flow Air Compressor and an Aerostatic Bearing

Authors: Ahmed E. Hodaib, Muhammed A. Hashem

Abstract:

High-speed transportation has become a growing concern. To increase high-speed efficiencies and minimize power consumption of a vehicle, we need to eliminate the friction with the ground and minimize the aerodynamic drag acting on the vehicle. Due to the complexity and high power requirements of electromagnetic levitation, we make use of the air in front of the capsule, that produces the majority of the drag, to compress it in two phases and inject a proportion of it through small nozzles to make a high-pressure air cushion to levitate the capsule. The tube is partially-evacuated so that the air pressure is optimized for maximum compressor effectiveness, optimum tube size, and minimum vacuum pump power consumption. The total relative mass flow rate of the tube air is divided into two fractions. One is by-passed to flow over the capsule body, ensuring that no chocked flow takes place. The other fraction is sucked by the compressor where it is diffused to decrease the Mach number (around 0.8) to be suitable for the compressor inlet. The air is then compressed and intercooled, then split. One fraction is expanded through a tail nozzle to contribute to generating thrust. The other is compressed again. Bleed from the two compressors is used to maintain a constant air pressure in an air tank. The air tank is used to supply air for levitation. Dividing the total mass flow rate increases the achievable speed (Kantrowitz limit), and compressing it decreases the blockage of the capsule. As a result, the aerodynamic drag on the capsule decreases. As the tube pressure decreases, the drag decreases and the capsule power requirements decrease, however, the vacuum pump consumes more power. That’s why Design optimization techniques are to be used to get the optimum values for all the design variables given specific design inputs. Aerodynamic shape optimization, Capsule and tube sizing, compressor design, diffuser and nozzle expander design and the effect of the air bearing on the aerodynamics of the capsule are to be considered. The variations of the variables are to be studied for the change of the capsule velocity and air pressure.

Keywords: tube-capsule, hyperloop, aerodynamic design optimization, air compressor, air bearing

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3153 Arsenic (III) Removal by Zerovalent Iron Nanoparticles Synthesized with the Help of Tea Liquor

Authors: Tulika Malviya, Ritesh Chandra Shukla, Praveen Kumar Tandon

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Traditional methods of synthesis are hazardous for the environment and need nature friendly processes for the treatment of industrial effluents and contaminated water. Use of plant parts for the synthesis provides an efficient alternative method. In this paper, we report an ecofriendly and nonhazardous biobased method to prepare zerovalent iron nanoparticles (ZVINPs) using the liquor of commercially available tea. Tea liquor as the reducing agent has many advantages over other polymers. Unlike other polymers, the polyphenols present in tea extract are nontoxic and water soluble at room temperature. In addition, polyphenols can form complexes with metal ions and thereafter reduce the metals. Third, tea extract contains molecules bearing alcoholic functional groups that can be exploited for reduction as well as stabilization of the nanoparticles. Briefly, iron nanoparticles were prepared by adding 2.0 g of montmorillonite K10 (MMT K10) to 5.0 mL of 0.10 M solution of Fe(NO3)3 to which an equal volume of tea liquor was then added drop wise over 20 min with constant stirring. The color of the mixture changed from whitish yellow to black, indicating the formation of iron nanoparticles. The nanoparticles were adsorbed on montmorillonite K10, which is safe and aids in the separation of hazardous arsenic species simply by filtration. Particle sizes ranging from 59.08±7.81 nm were obtained which is confirmed by using different instrumental analyses like IR, XRD, SEM, and surface area studies. Removal of arsenic was done via batch adsorption method. Solutions of As(III) of different concentrations were prepared by diluting the stock solution of NaAsO2 with doubly distilled water. The required amount of in situ prepared ZVINPs supported on MMT K10 was added to a solution of desired strength of As (III). After the solution had been stirred for the preselected time, the solid mass was filtered. The amount of arsenic [in the form of As (V)] remaining in the filtrate was measured using ion chromatograph. Stirring of contaminated water with zerovalent iron nanoparticles supported on montmorillonite K10 for 30 min resulted in up to 99% removal of arsenic as As (III) from its solution at both high and low pH (2.75 and 11.1). It was also observed that, under similar conditions, montmorillonite K10 alone provided only <10% removal of As(III) from water. Adsorption at low pH with precipitation at higher pH has been proposed for As(III) removal.

Keywords: arsenic removal, montmorillonite K10, tea liquor, zerovalent iron nanoparticles

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3152 Modeling Biomass and Biodiversity across Environmental and Management Gradients in Temperate Grasslands with Deep Learning and Sentinel-1 and -2

Authors: Javier Muro, Anja Linstadter, Florian Manner, Lisa Schwarz, Stephan Wollauer, Paul Magdon, Gohar Ghazaryan, Olena Dubovyk

Abstract:

Monitoring the trade-off between biomass production and biodiversity in grasslands is critical to evaluate the effects of management practices across environmental gradients. New generations of remote sensing sensors and machine learning approaches can model grasslands’ characteristics with varying accuracies. However, studies often fail to cover a sufficiently broad range of environmental conditions, and evidence suggests that prediction models might be case specific. In this study, biomass production and biodiversity indices (species richness and Fishers’ α) are modeled in 150 grassland plots for three sites across Germany. These sites represent a North-South gradient and are characterized by distinct soil types, topographic properties, climatic conditions, and management intensities. Predictors used are derived from Sentinel-1 & 2 and a set of topoedaphic variables. The transferability of the models is tested by training and validating at different sites. The performance of feed-forward deep neural networks (DNN) is compared to a random forest algorithm. While biomass predictions across gradients and sites were acceptable (r2 0.5), predictions of biodiversity indices were poor (r2 0.14). DNN showed higher generalization capacity than random forest when predicting biomass across gradients and sites (relative root mean squared error of 0.5 for DNN vs. 0.85 for random forest). DNN also achieved high performance when using the Sentinel-2 surface reflectance data rather than different combinations of spectral indices, Sentinel-1 data, or topoedaphic variables, simplifying dimensionality. This study demonstrates the necessity of training biomass and biodiversity models using a broad range of environmental conditions and ensuring spatial independence to have realistic and transferable models where plot level information can be upscaled to landscape scale.

Keywords: ecosystem services, grassland management, machine learning, remote sensing

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3151 A Model for Operating Rooms Scheduling

Authors: Jose Francisco Ferreira Ribeiro, Alexandre Bevilacqua Leoneti, Andre Lucirton Costa

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This paper presents a mathematical model in binary variables 0/1 to make the assignment of surgical procedures to the operating rooms in a hospital. The proposed mathematical model is based on the generalized assignment problem, which maximizes the sum of preferences for the use of the operating rooms by doctors, respecting the time available in each room. The corresponding program was written in Visual Basic of Microsoft Excel, and tested to schedule surgeries at St. Lydia Hospital in Ribeirao Preto, Brazil.

Keywords: generalized assignment problem, logistics, optimization, scheduling

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3150 A Meta-Analysis of the Association Between Greenspace and Mental Health After COVID-19

Authors: Jae-Hyuk Hyun, Dong-Sung Bae, Jea-Sun Lee

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The COVID-19 pandemic emphasized the benefits of natural green space on mental health in pandemic situations. The effects of greenspace on reducing mental health disorder are detected, but limitations impede highlighting the overall effectiveness of greenspace on mental health to be valid and significant. Therefore, this study aims to comprehensively and quantitatively analyze the effectiveness and significance of greenspace in reducing mental disorders after the COVID-19 outbreak. This study adopted a systematic review to select adequate, necessary studies with significant associations between greenspace and mental health after COVID-19. Meta-analysis is performed using the selected studies for calculating and analyzing the combined effect size of greenspace on reducing mental disorder, difference of effect size in various factors of greenspace or mental health, and variables’ effects on greenspace or mental health. Also, a correlation test using MQRS and effect size is performed to determine significant correlations of factors in greenspace and mental health. The analysis confirmed the combined effect size of the association between greenspace and mental health to be interpreted as large enough (medium effect size, 0.565). Various factors consisting of greenspace or mental health had considerable effect sizes, with heterogeneity existing between studies of different greenspace and mental health aspects (subgroups). A significant correlation between factors in greenspace and mental health was identified, with correlations satisfying both reliability and effectiveness used for suggesting necessary greenspace policies with mental health benefits during the pandemic situation. Different variables of the study period, female proportion, and mean age significantly affected certain factors of greenspace or mental health, while the increase in effects of greenspace on mental health was detected as the COVID-19 period continued. Also, the regional heterogeneity of effects on the association between greenspace and mental health is recognized in all factors consisting of greenspace and mental health except for the visitation of greenspace. In conclusion, valid and significant effects were detected in various associations between greenspace and mental health. Based on the results of this study, conducting elaborate research and establishing adequate and necessary greenspace policies and strategies are recommended to effectively benefit the mental health of citizens in future pandemic situations.

Keywords: greenspace, natural environment, mental health, mental disorder, COVID-19, pandemic, systematic review, meta-analysis

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3149 Some Considerations about the Theory of Spatial-Motor Thinking Applied to a Traditional Fife Band in Brazil

Authors: Murilo G. Mendes

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This text presents part of the results presented in the Ph.D. thesis that has used John Baily's theory and method as well as its ethnographic application in the context of the fife flutes of the Banda Cabaçal dos Irmãos Aniceto in the state of Ceará, northeast of Brazil. John Baily is a British ethnomusicologist dedicated to studying the relationships between music, musical gesture, and embodied cognition. His methodology became a useful tool to highlight historical-social aspects present in the group's instrumental music. Remaining indigenous and illiterate, these musicians played and transmitted their music from generation to generation, for almost two hundred years, without any nomenclature or systematization of the fingering performed on the flute. In other words, his music, free from any theorization, is learned, felt, perceived, and processed directly through hearing and through the relationship between the instrument's motor skills and its sound result. For this reason, Baily's assumptions became fundamental in the analysis processes. As the author's methodology recommends, classes were held with the natives and provided technical musical learning and some important concepts. Then, transcriptions and analyses of musical aspects were made from patterns of movement on the instrument incorporated by repetitions and/or by the intrinsic facility of the instrument. As a result, it was discovered how the group reconciled its indigenous origins with the demand requested by the public power and the interests of the local financial elite from the mid-twentieth century. The article is structured from the cultural context of the group, where local historical and social aspects influence the social and musical practices of the group. Then, will be present the methodological conceptions of John Baily and, finally, their application in the music of the Irmãos Aniceto. The conclusion points to the good results of identifying, through this methodology and analysis, approximations between discourse, historical-social factors, and musical text. Still, questions are raised about its application in other contexts.

Keywords: Banda Cabaçal dos Irmãos Aniceto, John Baily, pífano, spatial-motor thinking

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3148 The Moderating Role of Payment Platform Applications’ Relationship with Increasing Purchase Intention Among Customers in Kuwait - Unified Theory of Acceptance and Sustainable Use of Technology Model

Authors: Ahmad Alsaber

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This paper aims to understand the intermediary role of the payment platform applications by analyzing the various factors that can influence the desirability of utilizing said payment services in Kuwait, as well as to determine the effect of the presence of different types of payment platforms on the variables of the “Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology” (UTAUT) model. The UTAUT model's findings will provide an important understanding of the moderating role of payment platform mobile applications. This study will explore the influence of payment platform mobile applications on customer purchase intentions in Kuwait by employing a quantitative survey of 200 local customers. Questions will cover their usage of payment platforms, purchase intent, and overall satisfaction. The information gathered is then analyzed using descriptive statistics and correlation analysis in order to gain insights. The research hopes to provide greater insight into the effect of mobile payment platforms on customer purchase intentions in Kuwait. This research will provide important implications to marketers and customer service providers, informing their strategies and initiatives, as well as offer recommendations to payment platform providers on how to improve customer satisfaction and security. The study results suggest that the likelihood of a purchase is affected by performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, risk, and trust. The purpose of this research is to understand the advancements in the different variables that Kuwaiti customers consider while dealing with mobile banking applications. With the implementation of stronger security measures, progressively more payment platform applications are being utilized in the Kuwaiti marketplace, making them more desirable with their accessibility and usability. With the development of the Kuwaiti digital economy, it is expected that mobile banking will have a greater impact on banking transactions and services in the future.

Keywords: purchase intention, UTAUT, performance expectancy, social influence, risk, trust

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3147 Effect of Pregnancy Intention, Postnatal Depressive Symptoms and Social Support on Early Childhood Stunting: Findings from India

Authors: Swati Srivastava, Ashish Kumar Upadhyay

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Background: According to United Nation Children’s Fund, it has been estimated that worldwide about 165 million children were stunted in 2012 and India alone accounts for 38% of global burden of stunting. In terms of incidence, India is home of more than 60 million stunted children worldwide. Our study aims to examine the effect of pregnancy intention and maternal postnatal depressive symptoms on early childhood stunting in India. We hypothesized that effect of pregnancy intention and postnatal maternal depressive symptoms were mediated by social support. Methods: We used data from first wave of Young Lives Study India. Out of 2011 children recruited in original cohort, 1833 children had complete information on pregnancy intention, maternal depression and other variables. A series of multivariate logistic regression model were used to examine the effect of pregnancy intention and postnatal depressive symptoms on early childhood stunting. Results: Bivariate result indicates that a higher percent of children born after unintended pregnancy (40%) were stunted than children of intended pregnancy (26%). Likewise, proportion of stunted children was also higher among women of high postnatal depressive symptoms (35%) than low level of depression (24%). Results of multivariate logistic regression model indicate that children born after unintended pregnancy were significantly more likely to be stunted than children born after intended pregnancy (Coefficient: 1.70, CI: 1.17, 2.48). Likewise, early childhood stunting was also associated with maternal postnatal depressive symptoms among women (Coefficient: 1.48, CI: 1.16, 1.88). The effect of pregnancy intention and postnatal depressive symptoms on early childhood stunting remains unchanged after controlling for social support and other variables. Conclusions: The findings of this study provide conclusive evidence regarding consequences of pregnancy intention and postnatal depressive symptoms on early childhood stunting in India. Therefore, there is need to identify the women with unintended pregnancy and incorporate the promotion of mental health into their national reproductive and child health programme.

Keywords: pregnancy intention, postnatal depressive symptoms, social support, childhood stunting, young lives study, India

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3146 Walking Progression in Ambulatory Individuals with Spinal Cord Injury Who Daily Walked with a Walking Device

Authors: Makamas Kumprou, Pipatana Amatachaya, Sugalya Amatachaya, Thiwabhorn Thaweewannakij, Preeda Arayawichanon

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Many individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) need an ambulatory assistive device (AAD) to promote their independence and experience of task-specific walking practice. Without a periodic follow-up for their walking progression, however, many individuals may use the same AAD even though up to 66% of them had the potential to progress walking ability. This may distort their optimal ability and increase the possibility of having negative impacts due to the long-lasting used of an AAD. However, these findings were cross-sectionally collected without data confirmation for the benefit or negative impacts of those who changed the types of AAD used. Therefore, this study prospectively assessed the proportion of ambulatory individuals with SCI who were able to progress their walking ability as determined using a type of AAD, and the changes of their functional ability as well as the incidence of falls over 6 months. Twenty-four subjects with SCI who daily walked with an AAD were involved in the study for 2 visits over 6 months. At the first visit (baseline assessments), the subjects were assessed for their spatiotemporal variables (i.e., cadence, step length, stride length, and step symmetry) and walking ability using the 10-meter walk test (10MWT). Then, they were assessed for the possibility of their walking progression as determined using the ability of walking with the least support AAD with no more than contact guarding assist. Those who were capable of changing an AAD were trained for the ability to walk with a new AAD. Thereafter, all subjects were monthly monitored for incidence of fall over 6 months. At the second visit (after 6 months followed-up), subjects were reassessed for their spatiotemporal variables and 10MWT. The findings indicated that, of all 24 subjects, 8 subjects (33.3%) were able to walk with less support AAD than their usual one. The walking cadence, step length symmetry, and walking ability of these subjects improved significantly greater than those who walked with the same AAD (p < 0.05). Among these subjects, one subject (12.5%) reported fell (3 times) during the follow-up period, whereas 5 subjects (31.3%) who walked with the same AAD experienced at least one fall (range 1 – 16 times). The findings indicated that a large proportion of ambulatory individuals with SCI who daily walked with an AAD could progress their walking ability, whereby their walking ability and safety also significantly improved after they walked with an optimal AAD. The findings suggest the need for a periodic follow-up for an appropriate AAD used for these individuals.

Keywords: walking device, walker, crutches, cane, rehabilitation

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3145 Living at Density: Resident Perceptions in Auckland, New Zealand

Authors: Errol J. Haarhoff

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Housing in New Zealand, particularly in Auckland, is dominated by low-density suburbs. Over the past 20 years, housing intensification policies aimed to curb outward low-density sprawl and to concentrate development within an urban boundary have been implemented. This requires the greater deployment of attached housing typologies such apartments, duplexes and terrace housing. There has been strong market response and uptake for higher density development, with the number of building approvals received by the Auckland Council for attached housing units increasing from around 15 percent in 2012/13, to 54 percent in 2017/18. A key question about intensification and strong market uptake in a city where lower density has been the norm, is whether higher density neighborhoods will deliver necessary housing satisfaction? This paper reports on the findings to a questionnaire survey and focus group discussions probing resident perceptions to living at higher density in relation to their dwellings, the neighborhood and their sense of community. The findings reveal strong overall housing satisfaction, including key aspects such as privacy, noise and living in close proximity to neighbors. However, when residents are differentiated in terms of length of tenure, age or whether they are bringing up children, greater variation in satisfaction is detected. For example, residents in the 65-plus age cohort express much higher levels of satisfaction, when compared to the 18-44 year cohorts who more likely to be binging up children. This suggests greater design sensitivity to better accommodate the range of household types. Those who have live in the area longer express greater satisfaction than those with shorter duration, indicating time for adaption to living at higher density. Findings strongly underpin the instrumental role that the public amenities play in overall housing satisfaction and the emergence of a strong sense of community. This underscores the necessity for appropriate investment in the public amenities often lacking in market-led higher density housing development. We conclude with an evaluation of the PPP model, and its part in delivering housing satisfaction. The findings should be of interest to cities, housing developers and built environment professional pursuing housing policies promoting intensification and higher density.

Keywords: medium density, housing satisfaction, neighborhoods, sense of community

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3144 Optimization of Tundish Geometry for Minimizing Dead Volume Using OpenFOAM

Authors: Prateek Singh, Dilshad Ahmad

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Growing demand for high-quality steel products has inspired researchers to investigate the unit operations involved in the manufacturing of these products (slabs, rods, sheets, etc.). One such operation is tundish operation, in which a vessel (tundish) acts as a buffer of molten steel for the solidification operation in mold. It is observed that tundish also plays a crucial role in the quality and cleanliness of the steel produced, besides merely acting as a reservoir for the mold. It facilitates removal of dissolved oxygen (inclusions) from the molten steel thus improving its cleanliness. Inclusion removal can be enhanced by increasing the residence time of molten steel in the tundish by incorporation of flow modifiers like dams, weirs, turbo-pad, etc. These flow modifiers also help in reducing the dead or short circuit zones within the tundish which is significant for maintaining thermal and chemical homogeneity of molten steel. Thus, it becomes important to analyze the flow of molten steel in the tundish for different configuration of flow modifiers. In the present work, effect of varying positions and heights/depths of dam and weir on the dead volume in tundish is studied. Steady state thermal and flow profiles of molten steel within the tundish are obtained using OpenFOAM. Subsequently, Residence Time Distribution analysis is performed to obtain the percentage of dead volume in the tundish. Design of Experiment method is then used to configure different tundish geometries for varying positions and heights/depths of dam and weir, and dead volume for each tundish design is obtained. A second-degree polynomial with two-term interactions of independent variables to predict the dead volume in the tundish with positions and heights/depths of dam and weir as variables are computed using Multiple Linear Regression model. This polynomial is then used in an optimization framework to obtain the optimal tundish geometry for minimizing dead volume using Sequential Quadratic Programming optimization.

Keywords: design of experiments, multiple linear regression, OpenFOAM, residence time distribution, sequential quadratic programming optimization, steel, tundish

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3143 Preventative Maintenance, Impact on the Optimal Replacement Strategy of Secondhand Products

Authors: Pin-Wei Chiang, Wen-Liang Chang, Ruey-Huei Yeh

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This paper investigates optimal replacement and preventative maintenance policies of secondhand products under a Finite Planning Horizon (FPH). Any consumer wishing to replace their product under FPH would have it undergo minimal repairs. The replacement provided would be required to undergo periodical preventive maintenance done to avoid product failure. Then, a mathematical formula for disbursement cost for products under FPH can be derived. Optimal policies are then obtained to minimize cost. In the first of two segments of the paper, a model for initial product purchase of either new or secondhand products is used. This model is built by analyzing product purchasing price, surplus value of product, as well as the minimal repair cost. The second segment uses a model for replacement products, which are also secondhand products with no limit on usage. This model analyzes the same components as the first as well as expected preventative maintenance cost. Using these two models, a formula for the expected final total cost can be developed. The formula requires four variables (optimal preventive maintenance level, preventive maintenance frequency, replacement timing, age of replacement product) to find minimal cost requirement. Based on analysis of the variables using the expected total final cost model, it was found that the purchasing price and length of ownership were directly related. Also, consumers should choose the secondhand product with the higher usage for replacement. Products with higher initial usage upon acquisition require an earlier replacement schedule. In this case, replacements should be made with a secondhand product with less usage. In addition, preventative maintenance also significantly reduces cost. Consumers that plan to use products for longer periods of time replace their products later. Hence these consumers should choose the secondhand product with lesser initial usage for replacement. Preventative maintenance also creates significant total cost savings in this case. This study provides consumers with a method of calculating both the ideal amount of usage of the products they should purchase as well as the frequency and level of preventative maintenance that should be conducted in order to minimize cost and maintain product function.

Keywords: finite planning horizon, second hand product, replacement, preventive maintenance, minimal repair

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3142 Selecting Special Education as a Career: A Qualitative Study of Motivating Factors for Special Education Teachers

Authors: Jennifer Duffy, Liz Fleming

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Teacher shortage in special education is an American educational problem. Due to the implementation of The No Child Left Behind Act (2001) and The Individuals with Disabilities Education Improvement Act (2004), there has been an increase in the number of students requiring special education services. Consequently, there has been an influx to hire more special education teachers. However, the historic challenge of hiring certified special education teachers has been intensified with this the profession’s increasing demand of positions to fill. Efforts to improve recruitment and entry into the field must be informed by an understanding of the factors that initially inspire special education teachers to choose this career pathway. Hence, an understanding of reasons why teachers select special education as a profession is needed. The purpose of this study was to explore personal, academic, and professional motivations that lead to the selection of special education as a career choice. Using the grounded theory approach, this research investigation examined the factors that were most instrumental in influencing applicants to select special education as a career choice. Over one hundred de-identified graduate school applications to Bay Path University’s Graduate Special Education Programs from 2014- 2017 were qualitatively analyzed. Grounded coding was used to discover themes that emerged in applicants’ admissions essays explaining why he/she was pursuing a career in special education. The central themes that were most influential in applicants’ selection of special education as a career trajectory were (a) personal/familial connections to disability, (b) meaningful paraprofessional experiences working with disabled children, (c) aptitudes for teaching, and (d) finding personal rewards and professional fulfillment by advocating for vulnerable children. Implications from these findings include educating family members of children with disabilities about possible career tracks in special education, designing programs for paraprofessionals to become certified teachers, exposing prospective teacher candidates to the field of special education, and recruiting professionals from the human services field who seek to improve the quality of life and educational opportunities for children with special needs.

Keywords: career choice, professional pathways to teaching children with disabilities, special education, teacher recruitment

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3141 Cost Effectiveness Analysis of a Community Intervention for Anti-Retroviral Therapy Delivery in Cambodia

Authors: Esabelle Lo Yan Yam, Pheak Chhoun, Sovannary Tuot, Emily Lancsar, Siyan Yi

Abstract:

Persons living with HIV (PLHIV) need lifelong antiretroviral treatment (ART) to keep their viral load suppressed to an undetectable level, maintain a healthy immune system, and reduce the risk of transmitting HIV to others. However, many factors affect PLHIV's adherence to ART, including access to antiretrovirals (ARV), stigma, lack of social support, and the burden of seeking lifelong care. Community-based care has been shown to be instrumental in the experience of PLHIV in many countries, including Cambodia. In this study based in Cambodia, a community-based ART delivery (CAD) intervention involving community action workers (CAWs) who are PLHIVs was introduced. These workers collect pre-packaged ARVs from the ART clinics and dispense them to PLHIVs in the communities. The quasi-experimental study involved approximately 2000 stable PLHIV in the intervention arm and another 2000 PLHIV in the control arm (receiving usual care). A cost-effectiveness analysis is currently conducted to complement the clinical effectiveness of the CAD intervention on the care continuum and treatment outcomes for stable PLHIV, as well as the operational effectiveness in increasing the efficiency of the ART clinics and the health system. The analysis will consider health system and societal perspectives based on primary outcomes, including retention in care, viral load suppression, and adherence to ART. Additionally, a consultation with the National Centre for HIV/AIDS, Dermatology, and STD under the Cambodia Ministry of Health will be done to discuss the conduct of a budget impact analysis that can quantify the financial impact on the government's budget when adopting the CAD intervention at the provincial and national levels. The budget impact analysis will take into consideration various scaling-up scenarios for the interventions in the country. The research will assess the cost-effectiveness of the CAD intervention to support national stakeholders in Cambodia to make an informed decision on the adoption and scaling up of the intervention in Cambodia. The results are currently being analyzed and will be available at the time of the conference.

Keywords: Cambodia, community intervention, economic evaluation, global health, HIV/AIDs, implementation research

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3140 Migrants and Non Migrants: Class Level Distinctions from a Village Level Analysis of Mahabubnagar District

Authors: T. P. Muhammed Jamsheer

Abstract:

This paper tries to explains some of differences between migrants and non-migrants households by taking ten indicators like land ownership, land distribution, lease in land, lease out land, demand of labour, supply of labour, land operational potential, holding of agriculture implements and livestock’s, irrigation potential of households and credit holding by the households of highly dry, drought affected, poverty stricken, multi caste and pluralistic sub castes village in very backward Mahabubnagar district of Andhra Pradesh. The paper is purely field work based research and conducted census survey of field work among the 298 households in highly dry village called Keppatta from Bhoothpur mandel. One of the main objectives of the paper is that, to find out the factors which differentiate migrants and non-migrants households and what are distress elements which forced the poor peasants migrants to outside the village. It concludes that among the migrants and non-migrants households and among the differences between the categories wise of both types of households, there are differences, except two indicators like lease in and lease out, all other indicators like land holding pattern, demand and supply of labour, land operation, irrigation potential, implements and livestock and credit facilities of migrants and non-migrants households shows that non-migrants have high share than the migrants households. This paper also showing the landed households are more migrants, means among the BC and FC households landed households are migrants while SC landless are more migrants which is contradictory to general/existing literatures conclusion that, landless are more migrant than landed households, here also showing that when the number of land in acres increases the share of SC is declining while the share of FC is increasing among the both migrants and non-migrants households. In the class wise SC households are more in distress situation than any other class and that might be leading to the highest share of migrants from the respective village. In the logistic econometric model to find out the relation between migration and other ten variables, the result shows that supply of labour, lease in of the land and size of the family are statically significantly related with migration and all other variables not significant relation with migration although the theoretical explanation shows the different results.

Keywords: class, migrants, non migrants, economic indicators, distress factors

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3139 Smartphone-Based Human Activity Recognition by Machine Learning Methods

Authors: Yanting Cao, Kazumitsu Nawata

Abstract:

As smartphones upgrading, their software and hardware are getting smarter, so the smartphone-based human activity recognition will be described as more refined, complex, and detailed. In this context, we analyzed a set of experimental data obtained by observing and measuring 30 volunteers with six activities of daily living (ADL). Due to the large sample size, especially a 561-feature vector with time and frequency domain variables, cleaning these intractable features and training a proper model becomes extremely challenging. After a series of feature selection and parameters adjustment, a well-performed SVM classifier has been trained.

Keywords: smart sensors, human activity recognition, artificial intelligence, SVM

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3138 Simulation of the Large Hadrons Collisions Using Monte Carlo Tools

Authors: E. Al Daoud

Abstract:

In many cases, theoretical treatments are available for models for which there is no perfect physical realization. In this situation, the only possible test for an approximate theoretical solution is to compare with data generated from a computer simulation. In this paper, Monte Carlo tools are used to study and compare the elementary particles models. All the experiments are implemented using 10000 events, and the simulated energy is 13 TeV. The mean and the curves of several variables are calculated for each model using MadAnalysis 5. Anomalies in the results can be seen in the muons masses of the minimal supersymmetric standard model and the two Higgs doublet model.

Keywords: Feynman rules, hadrons, Lagrangian, Monte Carlo, simulation

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3137 Age Estimation and Sex Determination by CT-Scan Analysis of the Hyoid Bone: Application on a Tunisian Population

Authors: N. Haj Salem, M. Belhadj, S. Ben Jomâa, R. Dhouieb, S. Saadi, M. A. Mesrati, A. Chadly

Abstract:

Introduction: The hyoid bone is considered as one of many bones used to identify a missed person. There is a specificity of each population group in human identifications. Objective: To analyze the relationship between age, sex and metric parameters of hyoid bone in Tunisian population sample, using CT-scan. Materials and Methods: A prospective study was conducted in the Department of Forensic Medicine of FattoumaBourguiba Hospital of Monastir-Tunisia during 4 years. A total of 240 samples of hyoid bone were studied. The age of cases ranged from 18 days to 81 years. The specimens were collected only from the deceased of known age. Once dried, each hyoid bone was scanned using CT scan. For each specimen, 10 measurements were taken using a computer program. The measurements consisted of 6 lengths and 4 widths. A regression analysis was used to estimate the relationship between age, sex, and different measurements. For age estimation, a multiple logistic regression was carried out for samples ≤ 35 years. For sex determination, ROC curve was performed. Discriminant value finally retained was based on the best specificity with the best sensitivity. Results: The correlation between real age and estimated age was good (r²=0.72) for samples aged 35 years or less. The unstandardised canonical function equation was estimated using three variables: maximum length of the right greater cornua, length from the middle of the left joint space to the middle of the right joint space and perpendicular length from the centre point of a line between the distal ends of the right and left greater cornua to the centre point of the anterior view of the body of the hyoid bone. For sex determination, the ROC curve analysis reveals that the area under curve was at 81.8%. Discriminant value was 0.451 with a specificity of 73% and sensibility of 79%. The equation function was estimated based on two variables: maximum length of the greater cornua and maximum length of the hyoid bone. Conclusion: The findings of the current study suggest that metric analysis of the hyoid bone may predict the age ≤ 35 years. Sex estimation seems to be more reliable. Further studies dealing with the fusion of the hyoid bone and the current study could help to achieve more accurate age estimation rates.

Keywords: anthropology, age estimation, CT scan, sex determination, Tunisia

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3136 Review and Comparison of Iran`s Sixteenth Topic of the Building with the Ranking System of the Water Sector Lead to Improve the Criteria of the Sixteenth Topic

Authors: O. Fatemi

Abstract:

Considering growing building construction industry in developing countries and sustainable development concept, as well as the importance of taking care of the future generations, codifying buildings scoring system based on environmental criteria, has always been a subject for discussion. The existing systems cannot be used for all the regions due to several reasons, including but not limited to variety in regional variables. In this article, the most important common LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) and BREEAM (Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method) common and Global environmental scoring systems, used in UK, USA, and Japan, respectively, have been discussed and compared with a special focus on CASBEE (Comprehensive Assessment System for Built Environment Efficiency), to credit assigning field (weighing and scores systems) as well as sustainable development criteria in each system. Then, converging and distinct fields of the foregoing systems are examined considering National Iranian Building Code. Furthermore, the common credits in the said systems not mentioned in National Iranian Building Code have been identified. These credits, which are generally included in well-known fundamental principles in sustainable development, may be considered as offered options for the Iranian building environmental scoring system. It is suggested that one of the globally and commonly accepted systems is chosen considering national priorities in order to offer an effective method for buildings environmental scoring, and then, a part of credits is added and/or removed, or a certain credit score is changed, and eventually, a new scoring system with a new title is developed for the country. Evidently, building construction industry highly affects the environment, economy, efficiency, and health of the relevant occupants. Considering the growing trend of cities and construction, achieving building scoring systems based on environmental criteria has always been a matter of discussion. The existing systems cannot be used for all the regions due to several reasons, including but not limited to variety in regional variables.

Keywords: scoring system, sustainability assessment, water efficiency, national Iranian building code

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3135 Modeling Karachi Dengue Outbreak and Exploration of Climate Structure

Authors: Syed Afrozuddin Ahmed, Junaid Saghir Siddiqi, Sabah Quaiser

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Various studies have reported that global warming causes unstable climate and many serious impact to physical environment and public health. The increasing incidence of dengue incidence is now a priority health issue and become a health burden of Pakistan. In this study it has been investigated that spatial pattern of environment causes the emergence or increasing rate of dengue fever incidence that effects the population and its health. The climatic or environmental structure data and the Dengue Fever (DF) data was processed by coding, editing, tabulating, recoding, restructuring in terms of re-tabulating was carried out, and finally applying different statistical methods, techniques, and procedures for the evaluation. Five climatic variables which we have studied are precipitation (P), Maximum temperature (Mx), Minimum temperature (Mn), Humidity (H) and Wind speed (W) collected from 1980-2012. The dengue cases in Karachi from 2010 to 2012 are reported on weekly basis. Principal component analysis is applied to explore the climatic variables and/or the climatic (structure) which may influence in the increase or decrease in the number of dengue fever cases in Karachi. PC1 for all the period is General atmospheric condition. PC2 for dengue period is contrast between precipitation and wind speed. PC3 is the weighted difference between maximum temperature and wind speed. PC4 for dengue period contrast between maximum and wind speed. Negative binomial and Poisson regression model are used to correlate the dengue fever incidence to climatic variable and principal component score. Relative humidity is estimated to positively influence on the chances of dengue occurrence by 1.71% times. Maximum temperature positively influence on the chances dengue occurrence by 19.48% times. Minimum temperature affects positively on the chances of dengue occurrence by 11.51% times. Wind speed is effecting negatively on the weekly occurrence of dengue fever by 7.41% times.

Keywords: principal component analysis, dengue fever, negative binomial regression model, poisson regression model

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3134 Problems concerning Formation of Institutional Framework for Electronic Democracy in Georgia

Authors: Giorgi Katamadze

Abstract:

Open public service and accountability towards citizens is an important feature of democratic state based on rule of law. Effective use of electronic resources simplifies bureaucratic procedures, makes direct communications, helps exchange information, ensures government’s openness and in general helps develop electronic/digital democracy. Development of electronic democracy should be a strategic dimension of Georgian governance. Formation of electronic democracy, its functional improvement should become an important dimension of the state’s information policy. Electronic democracy is based on electronic governance and implies modern information and communication systems, their adaptation to universal standards. E-democracy needs involvement of governments, voters, political parties and social groups in an electronic form. In the last years the process of interaction between the citizen and the state becomes simpler. This process is achieved by the use of modern technological systems which gives to a citizen a possibility to use different public services online. For example, the website my.gov.ge makes interaction between the citizen, business and the state more simple, comfortable and secure. A higher standard of accountability and interaction is being established. Electronic democracy brings new forms of interactions between the state and the citizen: e-engagement – participation of society in state politics via electronic systems; e-consultation – electronic interaction among public officials, citizens and interested groups; e-controllership – electronic rule and control of public expenses and service. Public transparency is one of the milestones of electronic democracy as well as representative democracy as only on mutual trust and accountability can democracy be established. In Georgia, institutional changes concerning establishment and development of electronic democracy are not enough. Effective planning and implementation of a comprehensive and multi component e-democracy program (central, regional, local levels) requires telecommunication systems, institutional (public service, competencies, logical system) and informational (relevant conditions for public involvement) support. Therefore, a systematic project of formation of electronic governance should be developed which will include central, regional, municipal levels and certain aspects of development of instrumental basis for electronic governance.

Keywords: e-democracy, e-governance, e-services, information technology, public administration

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3133 Sustainable Marine Tourism: Opinion and Segmentation of Italian Generation Z

Authors: M. Bredice, M. B. Forleo, L. Quici

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Coastal tourism is currently facing huge challenges on how to balance environmental problems and tourist activities. Recent literature shows a growing interest in the issue of sustainable tourism from a so-called civilized tourists’ perspective by investigating opinions, perceptions, and behaviors. This study investigates the opinions of youth on what makes them responsible tourists and the ability of coastal marine areas to support tourism in future scenarios. A sample of 778 Italians attending the last year of high school was interviewed. Descriptive statistics, tests, and cluster analyses are applied to highlight the distribution of opinions among youth, detect significant differences based on demographic characteristics, and make segmentation of the different profiles based on students’ opinions and behaviors. Preliminary results show that students are largely convinced (62%) that by 2050 the quality of coastal environments could limit seaside tourism, while 10% of them believe that the problem can be solved simply by changing the tourist destination. Besides the cost of the holiday, the most relevant aspect respondents consider when choosing a marine destination is the presence of tourist attractions followed by the quality of the marine-coastal environment, the specificity of the local gastronomy and cultural traditions, and finally, the activities offered to guests such as sports and events. The reduction of waste and lower air emissions are considered the most important environmental areas in which marine-coastal tourism activities can contribute to preserving the quality of seas and coasts. Areas in which, as a tourist, they believe possible to give a personal contribution were (responses “very much” and “somewhat”); do not throw litter in the sea and on the beach (84%), do not buy single-use plastic products (66%), do not use soap or shampoo when showering in beaches (53%), do not have bonfires (47%), do not damage dunes (46%), and do not remove natural materials (e.g., sand, shells) from the beach (46%). About 6% of the sample stated that they were not interested in contributing to the aforementioned activities, while another 7% replied that they could not contribute at all. Finally, 80% of the sample has never participated in voluntary environmental initiatives or citizen science projects; moreover, about 64% of the students have never participated in events organized by environmental associations in marine or coastal areas. Regarding the test analysis -based on Kruskal-Wallis and Mann and Whitney tests - gender, region, and studying area of students reveals significance in terms of variables expressing knowledge and interest in sustainability topics and sustainable tourism behaviors. The classification of the education field is significant for a great number of variables, among which those related to several sustainable behaviors that respondents declare to be able to contribute as tourists. The ongoing cluster analysis will reveal different profiles in the sample and relevant variables. Based on preliminary results, implications are envisaged in the fields of education, policy, and business strategies for sustainable scenarios. Under these perspectives, the study has the potential to contribute to the conference debate about marine and coastal sustainable development and management.

Keywords: cluster analysis, education, knowledge, young people

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3132 Graduate School of Biotechnology and Bioengineering/ YuanZe University

Authors: Sankhanil Das, Arunava Dasgupta, Keya Mitra

Abstract:

This paper investigates the relationship between natural ecological systems and modern urban morphology. Over years, ecological conditions represented by natural resources such as natural landforms, systems of water, urban geography and land covers have been a significant driving factor of how settlements have formed, expanded and functioned. These have played a pivotal role in formation of the community character and the cultural identity of the urban spaces, and have steered cultural behavior within these settings. Such cultural behaviors have been instrumental in transforming mere spaces to places with meaning and symbolism. The natural process of city formation is principally founded upon the idea of balance and harmony, mostly in a subconscious manner. Reimaging such processes of natural evolution, this paper systematically builds a development model that generates a balance between environment and development, with specific focus on the Urban-Rural fringe areas in the Temple Town of Puri, in Eastern India. Puri represents a unique cross section of ecological landscape, cultural practices and religious symbolism with a very rich history and a vibrant heritage. While the city centre gets more and more crowded by tourists and pilgrims to accommodate related businesses, the original residents of Puri relocate to move towards the urban peripheral areas for better living conditions, gradually converting agricultural lands into non agricultural uses. This rapid spread into the rural hinterland is devoid of any connection with the rich cultural identity of Puri. These past four decades of ‘development’ has been at the cost of 810 Hectares of ecological Lake systems in the region. Invaluable ecological resources at urban rural edges are often viewed as hindrances to development and conceptualized as taking away from the image of the city. This paper attempts to understand the language of development over years on existing natural resources through topo-analysis and proposes a sustainable approach of development using different planning tools, with ecological resources as the pivotal factor of development.

Keywords: livability, sustainable development, urbanization, urban-rural edge

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3131 Measuring Digital Literacy in the Chilean Workforce

Authors: Carolina Busco, Daniela Osses

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The development of digital literacy has become a fundamental element that allows for citizen inclusion, access to quality jobs, and a labor market capable of responding to the digital economy. There are no methodological instruments available in Chile to measure the workforce’s digital literacy and improve national policies on this matter. Thus, the objective of this research is to develop a survey to measure digital literacy in a sample of 200 Chilean workers. Dimensions considered in the instrument are sociodemographics, access to infrastructure, digital education, digital skills, and the ability to use e-government services. To achieve the research objective of developing a digital literacy model of indicators and a research instrument for this purpose, along with an exploratory analysis of data using factor analysis, we used an empirical, quantitative-qualitative, exploratory, non-probabilistic, and cross-sectional research design. The research instrument is a survey created to measure variables that make up the conceptual map prepared from the bibliographic review. Before applying the survey, a pilot test was implemented, resulting in several adjustments to the phrasing of some items. A validation test was also applied using six experts, including their observations on the final instrument. The survey contained 49 items that were further divided into three sets of questions: sociodemographic data; a Likert scale of four values ranked according to the level of agreement; iii) multiple choice questions complementing the dimensions. Data collection occurred between January and March 2022. For the factor analysis, we used the answers to 12 items with the Likert scale. KMO showed a value of 0.626, indicating a medium level of correlation, whereas Bartlett’s test yielded a significance value of less than 0.05 and a Cronbach’s Alpha of 0.618. Taking all factor selection criteria into account, we decided to include and analyze four factors that together explain 53.48% of the accumulated variance. We identified the following factors: i) access to infrastructure and opportunities to develop digital skills at the workplace or educational establishment (15.57%), ii) ability to solve everyday problems using digital tools (14.89%), iii) online tools used to stay connected with others (11.94%), and iv) residential Internet access and speed (11%). Quantitative results were discussed within six focus groups using heterogenic selection criteria related to the most relevant variables identified in the statistical analysis: upper-class school students; middle-class university students; Ph.D. professors; low-income working women, elderly individuals, and a group of rural workers. The digital divide and its social and economic correlations are evident in the results of this research. In Chile, the items that explain the acquisition of digital tools focus on access to infrastructure, which ultimately puts the first filter on the development of digital skills. Therefore, as expressed in the literature review, the advance of these skills is radically different when sociodemographic variables are considered. This increases socioeconomic distances and exclusion criteria, putting those who do not have these skills at a disadvantage and forcing them to seek the assistance of others.

Keywords: digital literacy, digital society, workforce digitalization, digital skills

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3130 Comparative Analysis of Political Parties and Political Behavior: The Trend for Democratic Principles

Authors: Mary Edokpa Fadal, Frances Agweda

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Considering the volatile and evolving nature of the political environment in the developing countries, it is important that the subject of effective leadership practices that focus on transformational and systematic political development and values be reviewed. If the attitude towards partisan politics and the played politics by political parties is relatively deviated from expected adherence to acceptance, safe, efficient and practical standard, the political parties will continue to struggle endlessly in an effort to maintain a system that works. The analysis is situated in the context of political parties and partisan political behavior in contemporary societies and developing nations. Recent research of empirical evidence shows that most of the political parties are more or less, not too active in playing their instrumental role in the political system, such as unifying, simplifying and stabilizing the political process. This is however traced to the problem of ethnic politics that have been dominated by tribalism. The rising clamor for political development needs re-structuring and correcting the abnormalities in the center of the polity to address the flaws in our political system. The paper argues that political parties and political actors are some of the vital instrument of attaining societal goals of democratic principles for peace and durability. Issues of ethnic and partisan politics are also discussed, as it relates to question pertaining to political ideologies. It is in the findings that this paper examines some of the issues that have been seen revolving the true practice of political parties and its activities towards the democratic trend of a society, that help to resolve questions surrounding the issues of politics and governance in developing countries. These issues are seen as an aberration that have characterized politics and political behavior especially in the aspect of transparency and fulfilling its purpose of existence. The paper argues that the transition of the developing nature of states largely depends on the political structures and party politics and the nature of constitutionalism following the democratic awakening. The paper concludes that politics and political behavior are all human factors that play a vital role in the development of contemporary societies. They drive the wheel of nations towards its goal attainment. This paper relies on documentary, primary sources of data collection and empirical analysis.

Keywords: development, ethnicity, partisan politics, political behavior, political parties

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3129 Parametric Inference of Elliptical and Archimedean Family of Copulas

Authors: Alam Ali, Ashok Kumar Pathak

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Nowadays, copulas have attracted significant attention for modeling multivariate observations, and the foremost feature of copula functions is that they give us the liberty to study the univariate marginal distributions and their joint behavior separately. The copula parameter apprehends the intrinsic dependence among the marginal variables, and it can be estimated using parametric, semiparametric, or nonparametric techniques. This work aims to compare the coverage rates between an Elliptical and an Archimedean family of copulas via a fully parametric estimation technique.

Keywords: elliptical copula, archimedean copula, estimation, coverage rate

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3128 Food Consumption and Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from Ghana

Authors: Frank Adusah-Poku, John Bosco Dramani, Prince Boakye Frimpong

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Climate change is considered a principal threat to human existence and livelihood. The persistence and intensity of droughts and floods in recent years have adversely affected food production systems and value chains, making it impossible to end global hunger by 2030. Thus, this study aims to examine the effect of climate change on food consumption for both farm and non-farm households in Ghana. An important focus of the analysis is to investigate how climate change affects alternative dimensions of food security, examine the extent to which these effects vary across heterogeneous groups, and explore the channels through which climate change affects food consumption. Finally, we conducted a pilot study to understand the significance of farm and non-farm diversification measures in reducing the harmful impact of climate change on farm households. The approach of this article is to use two secondary and one primary datasets. The first secondary dataset is the Ghana Socioeconomic Panel Survey (GSPS). The GSPS is a household panel dataset collected during the period 2009 to 2019. The second dataset is monthly district rainfall and temperature gridded data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency. This data was matched to the GSPS dataset at the district level. Finally, the primary data was obtained from a survey of farm and non-farm adaptation practices used by farmers in three regions in Northern Ghana. The study employed the household fixed effects model to estimate the effect of climate change (measured by temperature and rainfall) on food consumption in Ghana. Again, it used the spatial and temporal variation in temperature and rainfall across the districts in Ghana to estimate the household-level model. Evidence of potential mechanisms through which climate change affects food consumption was explored using two steps. First, the potential mechanism variables were regressed on temperature, rainfall, and the control variables. In the second and final step, the potential mechanism variables were included as extra covariates in the first model. The results revealed that extreme average temperature and drought had caused a decrease in food consumption as well as reduced the intake of important food nutrients such as carbohydrates, protein and vitamins. The results further indicated that low rainfall increased food insecurity among households with no education compared with those with primary and secondary education. Again, non-farm activity and silos have been revealed as the transmission pathways through which the effect of climate change on farm households can be moderated. Finally, the results indicated over 90% of the small-holder farmers interviewed had no farm diversification adaptation strategies for climate change, and a little over 50% of the farmers owned unskilled or manual non-farm economic ventures. This makes it very difficult for the majority of the farmers to withstand climate-related shocks. These findings suggest that achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger by 2030 needs an integrated approach, such as reducing the over-reliance on rainfed agriculture, educating farmers, and implementing non-farm interventions to improve food consumption in Ghana.

Keywords: climate change, food consumption, Ghana, non-farm activity

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