Search results for: time series forecasting
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 19683

Search results for: time series forecasting

6273 Trend Analysis for Extreme Rainfall Events in New South Wales, Australia

Authors: Evan Hajani, Ataur Rahman, Khaled Haddad

Abstract:

Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in many different ways such as increase in evaporation and rainfalls. There have been growing interests among researchers to identify the nature of trends in historical rainfall data in many different parts of the world. This paper examines the trends in annual maximum rainfall data from 30 stations in New South Wales, Australia by using two non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho (SR). Rainfall data were analyzed for fifteen different durations ranging from 6 min to 3 days. It is found that the sub-hourly durations (6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 48 minutes) show statistically significant positive (upward) trends whereas longer duration (sub-daily and daily) events generally show a statistically significant negative (downward) trend. It is also found that the MK test and SR test provide notably different results for some rainfall event durations considered in this study. Since shorter duration sub-hourly rainfall events show positive trends at many stations, the design rainfall data based on stationary frequency analysis for these durations need to be adjusted to account for the impact of climate change. These shorter durations are more relevant to many urban development projects based on smaller catchments having a much shorter response time.

Keywords: climate change, Mann-Kendall test, Spearman’s Rho test, trends, design rainfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 254
6272 Bioremoval of Malachite Green Dye from Aqueous Solution Using Marine Algae: Isotherm, Kinetic and Mechanistic Study

Authors: M. Jerold, V. Sivasubramanian

Abstract:

This study reports the removal of Malachite Green (MG) from simulated wastewater by using marine macro algae Ulva lactuca. Batch biosorption experiments were carried out to determine the biosorption capacity. The biosorption capacity was found to be maximum at pH 10. The effect of various other operation parameters such as biosorbent dosage, initial dye concentration, contact time and agitation was also investigated. The equilibrium attained at 120 min with 0.1 g/L of biosorbent. The isotherm experimental data fitted well with Langmuir Model with R² value of 0.994. The maximum Langmuir biosorption capacity was found to be 76.92 mg/g. Further, Langmuir separation factor RL value was found to be 0.004. Therefore, the adsorption is favorable. The biosorption kinetics of MG was found to follow pseudo second-order kinetic model. The mechanistic study revealed that the biosorption of malachite onto Ulva lactuca was controlled by film diffusion. The solute transfer in a solid-liquid adsorption process is characterized by the film diffusion and/or particle diffusion. Thermodynamic study shows ΔG° is negative indicates the feasibility and spontaneous nature for the biosorption of malachite green. The biosorbent was characterized using Scanning Electron Microscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy, and elemental analysis (CHNS: Carbon, Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Sulphur). This study showed that Ulva lactuca can be used as promising biosorbent for the removal of MG from wastewater.

Keywords: biosorption, Ulva lactuca, wastewater, malachite green, isotherm, kinetics

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6271 Ultra-Fast pH-Gradient Ion Exchange Chromatography for the Separation of Monoclonal Antibody Charge Variants

Authors: Robert van Ling, Alexander Schwahn, Shanhua Lin, Ken Cook, Frank Steiner, Rowan Moore, Mauro de Pra

Abstract:

Purpose: Demonstration of fast high resolution charge variant analysis for monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapeutics within 5 minutes. Methods: Three commercially available mAbs were used for all experiments. The charge variants of therapeutic mAbs (Bevacizumab, Cetuximab, Infliximab, and Trastuzumab) are analyzed on a strong cation exchange column with a linear pH gradient separation method. The linear gradient from pH 5.6 to pH 10.2 is generated over time by running a linear pump gradient from 100% Thermo Scientific™ CX-1 pH Gradient Buffer A (pH 5.6) to 100% CX-1 pH Gradient Buffer B (pH 10.2), using the Thermo Scientific™ Vanquish™ UHPLC system. Results: The pH gradient method is generally applicable to monoclonal antibody charge variant analysis. In conjunction with state-of-the-art column and UHPLC technology, ultra fast high-resolution separations are consistently achieved in under 5 minutes for all mAbs analyzed. Conclusion: The linear pH gradient method is a platform method for mAb charge variant analysis. The linear pH gradient method can be easily optimized to improve separations and shorten cycle times. Ultra-fast charge variant separation is facilitated with UHPLC that complements, and in some instances outperforms CE approaches in terms of both resolution and throughput.

Keywords: charge variants, ion exchange chromatography, monoclonal antibody, UHPLC

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6270 Comprehensive Evaluation of COVID-19 Through Chest Images

Authors: Parisa Mansour

Abstract:

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was discovered and rapidly spread to various countries around the world since the end of 2019. Computed tomography (CT) images have been used as an important alternative to the time-consuming RT. PCR test. However, manual segmentation of CT images alone is a major challenge as the number of suspected cases increases. Thus, accurate and automatic segmentation of COVID-19 infections is urgently needed. Because the imaging features of the COVID-19 infection are different and similar to the background, existing medical image segmentation methods cannot achieve satisfactory performance. In this work, we try to build a deep convolutional neural network adapted for the segmentation of chest CT images with COVID-19 infections. First, we maintain a large and novel chest CT image database containing 165,667 annotated chest CT images from 861 patients with confirmed COVID-19. Inspired by the observation that the boundary of an infected lung can be improved by global intensity adjustment, we introduce a feature variable block into the proposed deep CNN, which adjusts the global features of features to segment the COVID-19 infection. The proposed PV array can effectively and adaptively improve the performance of functions in different cases. We combine features of different scales by proposing a progressive atrocious space pyramid fusion scheme to deal with advanced infection regions with various aspects and shapes. We conducted experiments on data collected in China and Germany and showed that the proposed deep CNN can effectively produce impressive performance.

Keywords: chest, COVID-19, chest Image, coronavirus, CT image, chest CT

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6269 The Politics of Cinema: Representation of Rising Nationalism in Indian Cinema in the Election Year of 2019

Authors: Paawani Tewari, Oishik Dasgupta

Abstract:

Cinema and politics have often intertwined in India. Movies have become a mainstream method of communication with audiences and voters subliminally and directly. Indian film industry on average produces over a thousand films in a year, and during the election year of 2019, India witnessed the release of several highly political movies. Movies such as Uri: The Surgical Strike, Accidental Prime Minister, and PM Modi, et cetera, which are the sample of this study have tried to depict an ideal character of political stalwart leaders with the plausibility to inspire and aiming to change ideological orientations of viewers and the potent voters. This study tries to understand the major links between nationalism, its representation, and its manifestation in Indian cinema and how it is instrumental in shaping the character and orientations of its citizens towards nation, nationalism, and nationhood. Our work aims to highlight how nationalistic assumptions that are swaddled in the Hindi movies released during January 2019 – May 2019 affect the political mood of the nation and, in totality, the democratic system. The authors also try to throw light on how films being a powerful tool, are now being used to shape ideas, brainwashing and swaying opinions for political mileage. Hence it becomes essential for us to explore the dynamics between the quintessential definitions of what nationalism is for a common man in India versus of what has been represented in cinema, especially during the time of the elections.

Keywords: political governance and political analysis, political and public administration, election, public choice

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6268 Dynamic Analysis of a Moderately Thick Plate on Pasternak Type Foundation under Impact and Moving Loads

Authors: Neslihan Genckal, Reha Gursoy, Vedat Z. Dogan

Abstract:

In this study, dynamic responses of composite plates on elastic foundations subjected to impact and moving loads are investigated. The first order shear deformation (FSDT) theory is used for moderately thick plates. Pasternak-type (two-parameter) elastic foundation is assumed. Elastic foundation effects are integrated into the governing equations. It is assumed that plate is first hit by a mass as an impact type loading then the mass continues to move on the composite plate as a distributed moving loading, which resembles the aircraft landing on airport pavements. Impact and moving loadings are modeled by a mass-spring-damper system with a wheel. The wheel is assumed to be continuously in contact with the plate after impact. The governing partial differential equations of motion for displacements are converted into the ordinary differential equations in the time domain by using Galerkin’s method. Then, these sets of equations are solved by using the Runge-Kutta method. Several parameters such as vertical and horizontal velocities of the aircraft, volume fractions of the steel rebar in the reinforced concrete layer, and the different touchdown locations of the aircraft tire on the runway are considered in the numerical simulation. The results are compared with those of the ABAQUS, which is a commercial finite element code.

Keywords: elastic foundation, impact, moving load, thick plate

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6267 Proposal of Non-Destructive Inspection Function Based on Internet of Things Technology Using Drone

Authors: Byoungjoon Yu, Jihwan Park, Sujung Sin, Junghyun Im, Minsoo Park, Sehwan Park, Seunghee Park

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a technology to monitor the soundness of an Internet-based bridge using a non-conductive inspection function. There has been a collapse accident due to the aging of the bridge structure, and it is necessary to prepare for the deterioration of the bridge. The NDT/SHM system for maintenance of existing bridge structures requires a large number of inspection personnel and expensive inspection costs, and access of expensive and large equipment to measurement points is required. Because current drone inspection equipment can only be inspected through camera, it is difficult to inspect inside damage accurately, and the results of an internal damage evaluation are subjective, and it is difficult for non-specialists to recognize the evaluation results. Therefore, it is necessary to develop NDT/SHM techniques for maintenance of new-concept bridge structures that allow for free movement and real-time evaluation of measurement results. This work is financially supported by Korea Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport (MOLIT) as 'Smart City Master and Doctor Course Grant Program' and a grant (14SCIP-B088624-01) from Construction Technology Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Keywords: Structural Health Monitoring, SHM, non-contact sensing, nondestructive testing, NDT, Internet of Things, autonomous self-driving drone

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6266 Patient Progression at Discharge: A Communication, Coordination, and Accountability Gap among Hospital Teams

Authors: Nana Benma Osei

Abstract:

Patient discharge can be a hectic process. Patients are sometimes sent to the wrong location or forgotten in lounges in the waiting room. This ends up compromising patient care because the delay in picking the patients can affect how they adhere to medication. Patients may fail to take their medication, and this will lead to negative outcomes. The situation highlights the demands of modern-day healthcare, and the use of technology can help in reducing such challenges and in enhancing the patient’s experience, leading to greater satisfaction with the care provided. The paper contains the proposed changes to a healthcare facility by introducing the clinical decision support system, which will be needed to improve coordination and communication during patient discharge. This will be done under Kurt Lewin’s Change Management Model, which recognizes the different phases in the change process. A pilot program is proposed initially before the program can be implemented in the entire organization. This allows for the identification of challenges and ways of managing them. The paper anticipates some of the possible challenges that may arise during implementation, and a multi-disciplinary approach is considered the most effective. Opposition to the change is likely to arise because staff members may lack information on how the changes will affect them and the skills they will need to learn to use the new system. Training will occur before the technology can be implemented. Every member will go for training, and adequate time is allocated for training purposes. A comparison of data will determine whether the project has succeeded.

Keywords: patient discharge, clinical decision support system, communication, collaboration

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6265 Internal Cycles from Hydrometric Data and Variability Detected Through Hydrological Modelling Results, on the Niger River, over 1901-2020

Authors: Salif Koné

Abstract:

We analyze hydrometric data at the Koulikoro station on the Niger River; this basin drains 120600 km2 and covers three countries in West Africa, Guinea, Mali, and Ivory Coast. Two subsequent decadal cycles are highlighted (1925-1936 and 1929-1939) instead of the presumed single decadal one from literature. Moreover, the observed hydrometric data shows a multidecadal 40-year period that is confirmed when graphing a spatial coefficient of variation of runoff over decades (starting at 1901-1910). Spatial runoff data are produced on 48 grids (0.5 degree by 0.5 degree) and through semi-distributed versions of both SimulHyd model and GR2M model - variants of a French Hydrologic model – standing for Genie Rural of 2 parameters at monthly time step. Both extremal decades in terms of runoff coefficient of variation are confronted: 1951-1960 has minimal coefficient of variation, and 1981-1990 shows the maximal value of it during the three months of high-water level (August, September, and October). The mapping of the relative variation of these two decadal situations allows hypothesizing as following: the scale of variation between both extremal situations could serve to fix boundary conditions for further simulations using data from climate scenario.

Keywords: internal cycles, hydrometric data, niger river, gr2m and simulhyd framework, runoff coefficient of variation

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6264 Organic Substance Removal from Pla-Som Family Industrial Wastewater through APCW System

Authors: W. Wararam, K. Angchanpen, T. Pattamapitoon, K. Chunkao, O. Phewnil, M. Srichomphu, T. Jinjaruk

Abstract:

The research focused on the efficiency for treating high organic wastewater from pla-som production process by anaerobic tanks, oxidation ponds and constructed wetland treatment systems (APCW). The combined system consisted of 50-mm plastic screen, five 5.8 m3 oil-grease trap tanks (2-day hydraulic retention time; HRT), four 4.3 m3 anaerobic tanks (1-day HRT), 16.7 m3 oxidation pond no.1 (7-day HRT), 12.0 m3 oxidation pond no.2 (3-day HRT), and 8.2 m3 constructed wetland plot (1-day HRT). After washing fresh raw fishes, they were sliced in small pieces and were converted into ground fish meat by blender machine. The fish meat was rinsed for 8 rounds: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 and 7 by tap water and 4 and 8 by rice-wash-water, before mixing with salt, garlic, steamed rice and monosodium glutamate, followed by plastic wrapping for 72-hour of edibility. During pla-som production processing, the rinsed wastewater about 5 m3/day was fed to the treatment systems and fully stagnating storage in its components. The result found that, 1) percentage of treatment efficiency for BOD, COD, TDS and SS were 93, 95, 32 and 98 respectively, 2) the treatment was conducted with 500-kg raw fishes along with full equipment of high organic wastewater treatment systems, 3) the trend of the treatment efficiency and quantity in all indicators was similarly processed and 4) the small pieces of fish meat and fish blood were needed more than 3-day HRT in anaerobic digestion process.

Keywords: organic substance, Pla-Som family industry, wastewater, APCW system

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6263 Early Intervention and Teletherapy during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Authors: Stephen Hernandez, Nikita Sharma

Abstract:

The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged as a worldwide pandemic at the beginning of 2020. The pandemic and its impact reached the shores of the United States by the second week of March. Once infections started to grow in numbers, early intervention programs, including those providing home-based services, recognized that to reduce the spread of the virus, many traditional in-person therapeutic interventions were going to be impossible due to social distancing and self-quarantine requirements. Initially, infants, toddlers, and their families were left without any services from their educators and therapists, but within a few weeks of the public health emergency, various states, including New York, approved the use of teletherapy/virtual visits for early intervention service provision. This paper will detail the results of a survey from over 400 E.I. service providers about their experiences utilizing teletherapy to deliver services to children in early intervention programs. The survey questions focused on how did COVID-19 stay-at-home orders impact E.I. services for young children with special needs? Sub-questions included topics such as availability of the parents, the amount of time that babies remained engaged, as well as the perceived success of teletherapy as a viable option to provide service by both parent and professional. The results of this study found that therapists found teletherapy to be a viable manner of providing services and could be very effective on a case by case basis.

Keywords: early intervention, teletheraphy, telehealth, COVID-19

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6262 Readiness of Estonian Working and Non-working Older Adults to Benefit from eHealth

Authors: Marianne Paimre

Abstract:

Estonia is heralded as the most successful digital country in the world with the highly acclaimed eHealth system. Yet 40% of the 65–74-year-olds do not use the Internet at all, and digital divide between young and elderly people's use of ICT is larger than in many advanced countries. Poor access to ICT resource and insufficient digital skills can lead to detachment from digital health resources, delayed diagnoses, and increased rates of hospitalization. To reveal digital divide within the elderly population itself, the presentation focuses on the health information behavior of Estonian seniors who either continue or have stopped working after retirement to use digital health applications. The author's main interest is on access, trust, and skills to use the Internet for medical purposes. Fifteen in-depth interviews with 65+ working persons, as well as 15 interviews with full-time retirees, were conducted. Also, six think-aloud protocols were conducted. The results indicate that older adults, who due to the nature of their work, have regular access to computers, often search for health-related information online. They exposed high source criticism and were successful in solving the given tasks. Conversely, most of the fully retired older adults claimed not using computers or other digital devices and cited lack of skills as the main reason for their inactivity. Thus, when developing health applications, it should be borne in mind that the ability and willingness of older adults to use e-solutions are very different.

Keywords: digital divide, digital healthcare, health information behavior, older adults

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6261 Polish Authorities Towards Refugee Crises

Authors: Klaudia Gołębiowska

Abstract:

This article analyzes the actions of Poland's ruling party facing two refugee crises. These crises emerged almost one after the other within a few months. The first concerned irregular migrants from various countries, including the Middle East, seeking to cross the Polish border from the territory of Belarus. The second was caused by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I aim to show the evolution of the discourse and law towards immigrants and refugees by the party Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS, ang. Law and Justice), which has been in power in Poland since 2015. The authorities, in power since 2015, have radically changed its anti-immigrant discourse towards the exodus of civilians from Ukraine. Research questions are the following: What were the roots of the refugee crises in Poland in 2021 and 2022? What legal or illegal measures were taken in Poland to deal with the refugee crises? The methods of qualitative source analysis and process tracing. From the first days of the war in Ukraine, not only was aid organised for Ukrainians, but they were also given access to public services and education. All refugees were granted temporary international protection. At the same time, the basic physiological needs of those on the Polish-Belarusian border were ignored. Moreover, illegal pushbacks were used against those coming mainly from the Middle East, pushing them into the territory of Belarus, where they were often subjected to torture and inhumane treatment. The Polish government justified such treatment on the grounds that these people were part of a 'hybrid war' waged by Russia and Belarus using migrants. Only Ukrainians were treated as 'real' refugees in the analyzed crises at the Polish borders.

Keywords: refugee, irregular migrants, hybrid war, migrants

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6260 Dissipation Capacity of Steel Building with Fiction Pendulum Base-Isolation System

Authors: A. Ras, I. Nait Zerrad, N. Benmouna, N. Boumechra

Abstract:

Use of base isolators in the seismic design of structures has attracted considerable attention in recent years. The major concern in the design of these structures is to have enough lateral stability to resist wind and seismic forces. There are different systems providing such isolation, among them there are friction- pendulum base isolation systems (FPS) which are rather widely applied nowadays involving to both affordable cost and high fundamental periods. These devices are characterised by a stiff resistance against wind loads and to be flexible to the seismic tremors, which make them suitable for different situations. In this paper, a 3D numerical investigation is done considering the seismic response of a twelve-storey steel building retrofitted with a FPS. Fast nonlinear time history analysis (FNA) of Boumerdes earthquake (Algeria, May 2003) is considered for analysis and carried out using SAP2000 software. Comparisons between fixed base, bearing base isolated and braced structures are shown in a tabulated and graphical format. The results of the various alternatives studies to compare the structural response without and with this device of dissipation energy thus obtained were discussed and the conclusions showed the interesting potential of the FPS isolator. This system may to improve the dissipative capacities of the structure without increasing its rigidity in a significant way which contributes to optimize the quantity of steel necessary for its general stability.

Keywords: energy dissipation, friction-pendulum system, nonlinear analysis, steel structure

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6259 The Social Conflicts and Evaluation of Times Square, Middletown Manhattan District in Development Since the Inceptive Point

Authors: Seung Oh, Satoshi Okada

Abstract:

This study is information-intensive research that provides insight from the factual history, social perception, and robust ideas derived from the social conflict in the most progressively thriving district in the world, Times Square. The case study provides the socio-environmental setup since the Inceptive Point of the development, the Great Depression, the history archives, and evaluation based on the master-level journals as standard. The Great Depression invited macro-sized changes, including financial systems, to raise fluidity by gutting off the debt limit by the gold value, organizing the labor, and social problems in the major cities. The locality of Times Square was implemented by the socio-political changes, overturning ownerships of properties, including theaters, delocalizing tourism, and re-entering the labors with organizations through infrastructure projects and civil activities for minorities and preservations amid the progressive developments over time. Naturally, chasing the media for factual research before and after Inceptive Points. Times Square is understood not just the ‘tower with subway’ progression but also social conflicts raised for adjustment for civil rights, preservations, and progression to deliver the environmental background to trigger the 42nd Street Development (42DP) in the 1990s.

Keywords: development, district, progressive, preservation, social conflict, value chasing

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6258 Effect of Institution Volume on Mortality and Outcomes in Osteoporotic Hip Fracture Care

Authors: J. Milton, C. Uzoigwe, O. Ayeko, B. Offorha, K. Anderson, R. G. Middleton

Abstract:

Background: We used the UK National Hip Fracture database to determine the effect of institution hip fracture case volume on hip fracture healthcare outcomes in 2019. Using logistic regression for each healthcare outcome, we compared the best performing 50 units with the poorest performing 50 units in order to determine if the unit volume was associated with performance for each particular outcome. Method: We analysed 175 institutions treating a total of 67,673 patients over the course of a year. Results: The number of hip fractures seen per unit ranged between 86 and 952. Larger units tendered to perform health assessments more consistently and mobilise patients more expeditiously post-operatively. Patients treated at large institutions had shorter lengths of stay. With regard to most other outcomes, there was no association between unit case volume and performance, notably compliance with the Best Practice Tariff, time to surgery, proportion of eligible patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty, length of stay, delirium risk, and pressure sore risk assessments. Conclusion: There is no relationship between unit volume and the majority of health care outcomes. It would seem that larger institutions tend to perform better at parameters that are dependent upon personnel numbers. However, where the outcome is contingent, even partially, on physical infrastructure capacity, there was no difference between larger and smaller units.

Keywords: institution volume, mortality, neck of femur fractures, osteoporosis

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6257 Water-Bentonite Interaction of Green Pellets through Micro-Structural Analysis

Authors: Satyananda Patra, Venugopal Rayasam

Abstract:

The quality of pellets produced is affected by quality and type of green pellets, amount of addition of binders and fluxing agents along with the provided firing conditions. The green pellet quality depends upon chemistry, mineralogy and granulometry of fines used for pellet making, the feed size, its moisture content and porosity. During firing of green pellets, ingredients present within reacts to form different phases and microstructure. So in turn, physical and metallurgical properties of pellets are influenced by amount and type of binder and flux addition, induration time and temperature. During iron making process, the metallurgical properties of fired pellets are decided by the type and amount of these phases and their chemistry. Green pelletizing and induration studies have been already carried out with magnetite and hematite ore fines but for Indian iron ores of high alumina content showing different pelletizing characters, these studies cannot be directly interpreted. The main objective of proposed research work is to understand the green pelletizing process and determine the water bentonite interaction at different levels. Swelling behavior of bentonite and microstructure of the green pellet are investigated. Conversion of iron ore fines into pellets, the key raw material and process variables that influence the pellet quality needs to be identified and a correlation should be established between them.

Keywords: iron ore, pelletization, binders, green pellets, microstructure

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6256 Perceptions of Higher Education Online Learning Faculty in Lebanon

Authors: Noha Hamie Haidar

Abstract:

The purpose of this case study was to explore faculty attitudes toward online learning in a Lebanese Higher Education Institution (HEI). The research problem addressed the disinterest among faculty at the Arts, Sciences, and Technology University of Lebanon (AUL) in enhancing learning using online technology. The research questions for the study examined the attitudes of the faculty toward applying online learning and the extent of the faculty readiness to adopt this technological change. A qualitative case study design was used that employed multiple sources of information including semi-structured interviews and existing literature. The target population was AUL faculty including full-time instructors and administration (n=25). Data analysis was guided by the lens of Kanter’s theoretical approach, which focused on faculty’s awareness, desire, knowledge, ability, and reinforcement model (ADKAR) for adopting change. Key findings indicated negative impressions concerning online learning such as authority (ministry of education, culture, and rules); and change (increased enrollment and different teaching styles). Yet, within AUL’s academic environment, the opportunity for the adoption of online learning was identified; faculty showed positive elements, such as the competitive advantage to first enter the Lebanese Market, and higher student enrollment. These results may encourage AUL’s faculty to adopt online learning and to achieve a positive social change by expanding the ability of students in HEIs to compete globally.

Keywords: faculty, higher education, technology, online learning

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6255 Prediction of Road Accidents in Qatar by 2022

Authors: M. Abou-Amouna, A. Radwan, L. Al-kuwari, A. Hammuda, K. Al-Khalifa

Abstract:

There is growing concern over increasing incidences of road accidents and consequent loss of human life in Qatar. In light to the future planned event in Qatar, World Cup 2022; Qatar should put into consideration the future deaths caused by road accidents, and past trends should be considered to give a reasonable picture of what may happen in the future. Qatar roads should be arranged and paved in a way that accommodate high capacity of the population in that time, since then there will be a huge number of visitors from the world. Qatar should also consider the risk issues of road accidents raised in that period, and plan to maintain high level to safety strategies. According to the increase in the number of road accidents in Qatar from 1995 until 2012, an analysis of elements affecting and causing road accidents will be effectively studied. This paper aims to identify and criticize the factors that have high effect on causing road accidents in the state of Qatar, and predict the total number of road accidents in Qatar 2022. Alternative methods are discussed and the most applicable ones according to the previous researches are selected for further studies. The methods that satisfy the existing case in Qatar were the multiple linear regression model (MLR) and artificial neutral network (ANN). Those methods are analyzed and their findings are compared. We conclude that by using MLR the number of accidents in 2022 will become 355,226 accidents, and by using ANN 216,264 accidents. We conclude that MLR gave better results than ANN because the artificial neutral network doesn’t fit data with large range varieties.

Keywords: road safety, prediction, accident, model, Qatar

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6254 Tide Contribution in the Flood Event of Jeddah City: Mathematical Modelling and Different Field Measurements of the Groundwater Rise

Authors: Aïssa Rezzoug

Abstract:

This paper is aimed to bring new elements that demonstrate the tide caused the groundwater to rise in the shoreline band, on which the urban areas occurs, especially in the western coastal cities of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia like Jeddah. The reason for the last events of Jeddah inundation was the groundwater rise in the city coupled at the same time to a strong precipitation event. This paper will illustrate the tide participation in increasing the groundwater level significantly. It shows that the reason for internal groundwater recharge within the urban area is not only the excess of the water supply coming from surrounding areas, due to the human activity, with lack of sufficient and efficient sewage system, but also due to tide effect. The research study follows a quantitative method to assess groundwater level rise risks through many in-situ measurements and mathematical modelling. The proposed approach highlights groundwater level, in the urban areas of the city on the shoreline band, reaching the high tide level without considering any input from precipitation. Despite the small tide in the Red Sea compared to other oceanic coasts, the groundwater level is considerably enhanced by the tide from the seaside and by the freshwater table from the landside of the city. In these conditions, the groundwater level becomes high in the city and prevents the soil to evacuate quickly enough the surface flow caused by the storm event, as it was observed in the last historical flood catastrophe of Jeddah in 2009.

Keywords: flood, groundwater rise, Jeddah, tide

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6253 Peruvian Diagnostic Reference Levels for Patients Undergoing Different X-Rays Procedures

Authors: Andres Portocarrero Bonifaz, Caterina Sandra Camarena Rodriguez, Ricardo Palma Esparza, Nicolas Antonio Romero Carlos

Abstract:

Reference levels for common X-rays procedures have been set in many protocols. In Peru, during quality control tests, the dose tolerance is set by these international recommendations. Nevertheless, further studies can be made to assess the national reality and relate dose levels with different parameters such as kV, mA/mAs, exposure time, type of processing (digital, digitalized or conventional), etc. In this paper three radiologic procedures were taken into account for study, general X-rays (fixed and mobile), intraoral X-rays (fixed, mobile and portable) and mammography. For this purpose, an Unfors Xi detector was used; the dose was measured at a focus - detector distance which varied depending on the procedure, and was corrected afterward to find the surface entry dose. The data used in this paper was gathered over a period of over 3 years (2015-2018). In addition, each X-ray machine was taken into consideration only once. The results hope to achieve a new standard which reflects the local practice, and address the issues of the ‘Bonn Call for Action’ in Peru. For this purpose, the 75% percentile of the dose of each radiologic procedure was calculated. In future quality control services, those machines with dose values higher than the selected threshold should be informed that they surpass the reference dose levels established in comparison other radiological centers in the country.

Keywords: general X-rays, intraoral X-rays, mammography, reference dose levels

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6252 Modified Model for UV-Laser Corneal Ablation

Authors: Salah Hassab Elnaby, Omnia Hamdy, Aziza Ahmed Hassan, Salwa Abdelkawi, Ibrahim Abdelhalim

Abstract:

Laser corneal reshaping has been proposed as a successful treatment of many refraction disorders. However, some physical and chemical demonstrations of the laser effect upon interaction with the corneal tissue are still not fully explained. Therefore, different computational and mathematical models have been implemented to predict the depth of the ablated channel and calculate the ablation threshold and the local temperature rise. In the current paper, we present a modified model that aims to answer some of the open questions about the ablation threshold, the ablation rate, and the physical and chemical mechanisms of that action. The proposed model consists of three parts. The first part deals with possible photochemical reactions between the incident photons and various components of the cornea (collagen, water, etc.). Such photochemical reactions may end by photo-ablation or just the electronic excitation of molecules. Then a chemical reaction is responsible for the ablation threshold. Finally, another chemical reaction produces fragments that can be cleared out. The model takes into account all processes at the same time with different probabilities. Moreover, the effect of applying different laser wavelengths that have been studied before, namely the common excimer laser (193-nm) and the solid state lasers (213-nm & 266-nm), has been investigated. Despite the success and ubiquity of the ArF laser, the presented results reveal that a carefully designed 213-nm laser gives the same results with lower operational drawbacks. Moreover, the use of mode locked laser could also decrease the risk of heat generation and diffusion.

Keywords: UV lasers, mathematical model, corneal ablation, photochemical ablation

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6251 Implementation of Lean Management in Non-Governmental Organizations: A Case Study on WrocłAw Food Bank

Authors: Maciej Pieńkowski

Abstract:

Lean Management is nowadays one of the most dominating management concepts within industrial and service environment, providing compelling business benefits to many companies. At the same time, its application in the non-governmental organizations has not been extensively researched yet. Filling this gap will address clear necessity of efficient management system in NGO environment and significantly improve operational performance of many organizations. The goal of the research is to verify effectiveness of Lean Management implementation in the non-governmental organizations, based on Wrocław Food Bank case study. The case study describes a Lean Management implementation project within analyzed organization. During the project, Wrocław Food Bank went through full 5-step Lean Thinking processes, which consist of value identification, value stream mapping, creation of flow, establishing pull and seeking perfection. The research contains a detailed summary of each of those steps and provides with information regarding results of their implementation. The major findings of the study indicate, that application of Lean Management in NGO environment is possible, however physical implementation of its guidelines can be strongly impeded by multiple constraints, which non-governmental organizations are facing. Due to challenges like limited resources, project based activities and lack of traditional supplier-customer relationship, many NGOs may fail in their efforts to implement Lean Management. Successful Lean application requires therefore strong leadership commitment, which would drive transformation to remove barriers and obstacles.

Keywords: lean management, non-governmental organizations, continuous improvement, lean thinking

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6250 Transfer of Constraints or Constraints on Transfer? Syntactic Islands in Danish L2 English

Authors: Anne Mette Nyvad, Ken Ramshøj Christensen

Abstract:

In the syntax literature, it has standardly been assumed that relative clauses and complement wh-clauses are islands for extraction in English, and that constraints on extraction from syntactic islands are universal. However, the Mainland Scandinavian languages has been known to provide counterexamples. Previous research on Danish has shown that neither relative clauses nor embedded questions are strong islands in Danish. Instead, extraction from this type of syntactic environment is degraded due to structural complexity and it interacts with nonstructural factors such as the frequency of occurrence of the matrix verb, the possibility of temporary misanalysis leading to semantic incongruity and exposure over time. We argue that these facts can be accounted for with parametric variation in the availability of CP-recursion, resulting in the patterns observed, as Danish would then “suspend” the ban on movement out of relative clauses and embedded questions. Given that Danish does not seem to adhere to allegedly universal syntactic constraints, such as the Complex NP Constraint and the Wh-Island Constraint, what happens in L2 English? We present results from a study investigating how native Danish speakers judge extractions from island structures in L2 English. Our findings suggest that Danes transfer their native language parameter setting when asked to judge island constructions in English. This is compatible with the Full Transfer Full Access Hypothesis, as the latter predicts that Danish would have difficulties resetting their [+/- CP-recursion] parameter in English because they are not exposed to negative evidence.

Keywords: syntax, islands, second language acquisition, danish

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6249 Using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Modeling to Predict the Impact of Nuclear Reactor Mixed Tank Flows Using the Momentum Equation

Authors: Joseph Amponsah

Abstract:

This research proposes an equation to predict and determine the momentum source equation term after factoring in the radial friction between the fluid and the blades and the impeller's propulsive power. This research aims to look at how CFD software can be used to predict the effect of flows in nuclear reactor stirred tanks through a momentum source equation and the concentration distribution of tracers that have been introduced in reactor tanks. The estimated findings, including the dimensionless concentration curves, power, and pumping numbers, dimensionless velocity profiles, and mixing times 4, were contrasted with results from tests in stirred containers. The investigation was carried out in Part I for vessels that were agitated by one impeller on a central shaft. The two types of impellers employed were an ordinary Rushton turbine and a 6-bladed 45° pitched blade turbine. The simulations made use of numerous reference frame techniques and the common k-e turbulence model. The impact of the grid type was also examined; unstructured, structured, and unique user-defined grids were looked at. The CFD model was used to simulate the flow field within the Rushton turbine nuclear reactor stirred tank. This method was validated using experimental data that were available close to the impeller tip and in the bulk area. Additionally, analyses of the computational efficiency and time using MRF and SM were done.

Keywords: Ansys fluent, momentum equation, CFD, prediction

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6248 Insights and Inferences Associated with Subscription of Health Insurance in the Informal Sector of India

Authors: Harinder Singh

Abstract:

The paper sheds light on the perceptions of the uninsured workers employed in the urban informal sector of India, towards the health insurance. In addition to this, it also explores the association of the identified perceptions with household decisions to enroll for health insurance schemes in India. Firstly the data taken from the primary survey of the uninsured workers employed in the urban informal sector was analyzed using exploratory factor analysis to evaluate the perceptions. Thereafter, logistic regression was employed to determine the association of the identified perceptions regarding the enrollment. Our study identifies twelve perceptions related to the health insurance enrollment of the uninsured workers employed in the urban informal sector of India. The study demonstrates that perceptions have the strongest association with the voluntary enrollment. These specifically relate to the lack of awareness about the need to buy health insurance; comprehensive coverage; income constraint; future contingencies and social obligations; lack of information; availability of subsidized government health care; linkage with government hospitals and preference for government schemes. Conclusions: Along with the food security, health security has become a crying need of the workers employed in the informal sector and the time has come to scale up the health insurance schemes for them in the country. Policy makers or marketers of health insurance policies should recognize the household perceptions as a potential barrier and try to develop a health insurance package as per the actual needs of the informal sector (low income) in India.

Keywords: association, enrollment, health insurance, informal sector, perceptions, uninsured

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6247 Perfectly Matched Layer Boundary Stabilized Using Multiaxial Stretching Functions

Authors: Adriano Trono, Federico Pinto, Diego Turello, Marcelo A. Ceballos

Abstract:

Numerical modeling of dynamic soil-structure interaction problems requires an adequate representation of the unbounded characteristics of the ground, material non-linearity of soils, and geometrical non-linearities such as large displacements due to rocking of the structure. In order to account for these effects simultaneously, it is often required that the equations of motion are solved in the time domain. However, boundary conditions in conventional finite element codes generally present shortcomings in fully absorbing the energy of outgoing waves. In this sense, the Perfectly Matched Layers (PML) technique allows a satisfactory absorption of inclined body waves, as well as surface waves. However, the PML domain is inherently unstable, meaning that it its instability does not depend upon the discretization considered. One way to stabilize the PML domain is to use multiaxial stretching functions. This development is questionable because some Jacobian terms of the coordinate transformation are not accounted for. For this reason, the resulting absorbing layer element is often referred to as "uncorrected M-PML” in the literature. In this work, the strong formulation of the "corrected M-PML” absorbing layer is proposed using multiaxial stretching functions that incorporate all terms of the coordinate transformation. The results of the stable model are compared with reference solutions obtained from extended domain models.

Keywords: mixed finite elements, multiaxial stretching functions, perfectly matched layer, soil-structure interaction

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6246 Fabrication of Fe3O4core-meso SiO2/TiO2 Double Shell for Dye Pollution Remediation

Authors: Mohamed Habila, Ahmed Mohamed El-Toni, Mohamed Sheikh Moshab, Abdulrhman Al-Awadi, Zeid AL Othman

Abstract:

Water pollution with dyes is a critical environmental issue because off the huge amount of dyes disbarred annually, which cause severe damage for the ecosystem and human life. The main raison for this severs pollution is the rapid industrial development which led to more production of harmful pollutants. on the other hand, the core shell based magnetic materials have showed amazing character for controlling the material synthesis with the targeted structure to enhance the adsorptive removal of pollutants. Herein, the Fe3O4core-meso SiO2/TiO2 double shell have been prepared for methylene blue dye adsorption. the preparation procedure is controlled to prepare the magnetic core with further coating layers from silica and titania. The prepared Fe3O4core-meso SiO2/TiO2 double shell showed adsorption capacity for methylene blue removal about 50 mg/g at pH 6 after 80 min contact time form 50 ppm methylene blue solution. The adsorption process of methylene blue onto Fe3O4core-meso SiO2/TiO2 double shell was well fitted with the pseudo-second-order kinetic model and freundlish isotherm, indicating a quick and multilayer adsorption mechanism.

Keywords: magnetic core, silica shell, titania shell, water treatment, methylene blue, solvo-thermal process, adsorption

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6245 Effect of Tillage Techniques on the Performance of Kharif Rice Varieties

Authors: Mahua Banerjee, Debtanu Maiti

Abstract:

Zero-tillage cultivation is a farming practice that reduces costs while maintaining harvests and protecting the environment. Innovative partnerships among researchers, farmers, and other actors in the agricultural value chain have enabled the adoption of zero-tillage to sow rice in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, increasing farmers' incomes, fostering more sustainable use of soil and water, and providing a platform for cropping diversification and the introduction of other resource-conserving practices. A field experiment was conducted in the farmer’s field of Ausgram I Block, Burdwan, West Bengal, India under sandy loam soil with soil pH of 5.2, which is low in Nitrogen, medium in Phosphorus and Potassium. There were three techniques of tillage-T1: Zero tillage in Rice, T2: conventional tillage in Rice, T3: Rice grown with Drum seeder and three varieties namely V1: MTU 7029 V2-MTU 1010, V3: Pratikha thus making nine treatment combinations which were replicated thrice and the experiment was laid out in Factorial Randomised Block Design. Among the three varieties, rice variety MTU 7029 gave higher yield in all the tillage techniques. The highest yield was obtained under Zero tillage followed by conventional tillage. From economic analysis it was revealed that the benefit:cost ratio was higher in Zero tillage and rice cultivation by drum seeder. Zero-till is increasingly being adopted because it gives more yield at less cost, saves labour and farmer time. Farmers will be interested in this technology once they overcome their tillage biases.

Keywords: economics, Indo-Gangetic plain, rice, zero tillage, yield

Procedia PDF Downloads 363
6244 Legal Warranty in Real Estate Registry in Albania

Authors: Elona Saliaj

Abstract:

The registration of real estate in Albania after the 90's has been a long process in time and with high cost for the country. Passing the registration system from a centralized system to a free market private system, it’s accompanied by legal uncertainties that have led to economic instability. The reforms that have been undertaken in terms of property rights have been numerous and continuous throughout the years. But despite the reforms, the system of registration of real estate, has failed to be standards requirements established by the European Union. The completion of initial registration of real estate, legal treatment of previous owners or legalization of illegal constructions remain among the main problems that prevent the development of the country in its economic sector. The performance of the registration of real estate system and dealing with issues that have appeared in the Court of First Instance, the civil section of the Albanian constitute the core of handling this analysis. This paper presents a detailed analysis on the registration system that is chosen to be applied in our country for real estate. In its content it is also determined the institution that administrates these properties, the management technique and the law that determinate its functionality. The strategy is determined for creating a modern and functional registration system and for the country remains a challenge to achieve. Identifying practical problems and providing their solutions are also the focus of reference in order to improve and modernize this important system to a state law that aims to become a member of the European Union.

Keywords: real estates registration system, comparative aspects, cadastral area, property certificate, legal reform

Procedia PDF Downloads 479