Search results for: operational risk

Authors: M. J. Pourvaghar, M. E. Bahram, Sh. Khoshemehry

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Hyperlipidemia or an increase in blood lipids is a condition that has been rising, especially during the last decade, with the advancement of the life-span of the car, as an important disease. In fact, it is one of the complications of industrial life and semi-industrial. Hyperlipidemia alone is not a disease, but it is recognized as an important risk factor for coronary artery disease. The methodology of this review article is the use of research to provide the best solution for physical activity and exercise in relation to lowering blood lipids and lowering blood pressure. Also, factors that contribute to improving the health status of humans should be introduced. Research findings in this article show that physical activity with a specific duration and severity can keep a person away from the cardiovascular disease. The result shows that regular physical activity with low intensity and long periods of time is essential for human health. Physical mobility reduces blood pressure, reduces the harmful fats and does not cause cardiovascular disease. More than half of the patients suffering from cardiovascular problems are afflicted with blood lipids. On the other hand, high blood pressure is one of the serious health hazards in the world today, which causes a large number of cardiovascular problems and mortality in the world. Undoubtedly, the second most common risk factor for heart disease is high blood pressure after cigarette smoking.

Keywords: blood pressure, cardiovascular, hyperlipidemia, risk factor

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Authors: Nur Sahver Uslu, Ali̇ Hakan Büyüklü

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Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) costs are significant in the aviation industry. On the other hand, companies that provide MRO services to the aviation industry but are not dominant in the sector, need to determine the right strategies for sustainable profitability in a competitive environment. This study examined the operational real data of a small medium enterprise (SME) MRO company where analytical methods are not widely applied. The company's customers were divided into two categories: airline companies and non-airline companies, and the variables that best explained profitability were analyzed with Logistic Regression for each category and the results were compared. First, data reduction was applied to the transformed variables that went through the data cleaning and preparation stages, and the variables to be included in the model were decided. The misclassification rates for the logistic regression results concerning both customer categories are similar, indicating consistent model performance across different segments. Less profit margin is obtained from airline customers, which can be explained by the variables part description, time to quotation (TTQ), turnaround time (TAT), manager, part cost, and labour cost. The higher profit margin obtained from non-airline customers is explained only by the variables part description, part cost, and labour cost. Based on the two models, it can be stated that it is significantly more challenging for the MRO company, which is the subject of our study, to achieve profitability from Airline customers. While operational processes and organizational structure also affect the profit from airline customers, only the type of parts and costs determine the profit for non-airlines.

Keywords: aircraft, aircraft components, aviation, data analytics, data science, gini index, maintenance, repair, and overhaul, MRO, logistic regression, profit, variable clustering, variable reduction

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Authors: Soori Nnko, Zaina Mchome, John Dusabe, Angela Obasi

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In sub-Saharan Africa, adolescent girls living in urban and periurban settings are among the groups at increased risk of getting sexually transmitted infections. One of the challenges to improve uptake of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services among adolescents is linked to little appreciation about their vulnerability and the knowledge on availability of the SRH services. Objective: This study assesses adolescents’ perceptions on risks for SRH problems and the availability of services to prevent against SRH problems. Methodology: The study was conducted in March 2011 in Mwanza region, Tanzania. Data collection techniques included 18 Participatory Group Discussions and 17 In-depth Interviews with adolescents and young mothers aged 15-20 years. Results: Adolescents indicated that risk places included their homes, bushes, commercial centers, roadsides as well as school settings. Risk for having unprotected sex varied depending on where you are, and the time of the day. For example, collection of firewood in the bushes or water from the wells exposed girls to men who forced or lured them to have sex. The girls reported to encounter motorcyclists who offered the ride in exchange for sex. Girls also knew myriads places to seek SRH services, including public and private clinics, drug shops and traditional healers. Despite being aware of risky environment, and places to seek the services, access to SRH services were limited due to the stigma and negative attitude of community regarding adolescents’ utilization of SRH services. Conclusion: Adolescents are exposed to various risky environments, yet due to social stigma they have difficult to access the available SRH services.

Keywords: adolescent girls, sexual and reproductive health, AIDS, risk, opportunities, interventions, sub Saharan africa

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Authors: Ben Cheikh Asma, Bouafia Nabiha, Ammar Asma, Ezzi Olfa, Meddeb Khaoula, Chouchène Imed, Boussarsar Hamadi, Njah Mansour

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Background: Hospital Acquired Infection (HAI) constitutes an important worldwide health problem. It was associated with high mortality rate in intensive care units (ICU). This study aimed to determine HAI mortality rate in Tunisian intensive care units and identify its risk factors. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational cohort study over a 12 months period (September 15th 2015 to September 15 th 2016) in the adult medical ICU of University Hospital-Farhat Hached (Sousse-Tunisia). All patients admitted in the ICU for more than 48 hours were included in the study. We used an anonymous standardized survey record form to collect data by a medical hygienist assisted by an intensivist. We adopted definitions of Center for Diseases Control and prevention of Atlanta to detect HAI, Kaplan Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard regression to identify independent risk factor of HAI mortality. Results: Of 171 patients, 67 developed ICU-acquired infection (global incidence rate=39.2%). The mean age of patients was 59 ± 21.2 years and 60.8% were male. The most frequently identified infections were pulmonary acquired infection (ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP) and infected atelectasis with density rates 21.4 VAP/1000 days of mechanical ventilation and 9.4 infected atelectasis /1000 days of mechanical ventilation; respectively) and central venous catheter associated infection (CVC - AI) with density rate 28.4 CVC-AI / 1000 CVC-days). HAI mortality rate was 66.7% (n=44). The median survival was 20 days 3.36, 95% Confidential Interval [13.39 – 26.60]. Specific mortality rates according to infectious site were 65.5%, 36.4% and 4.5% respectively for VAP, CVC associated infection and infected atelectasis. In univariate analysis, a significant associations between mortality and cardiovascular history (p=0.04) tracheotomy (p=0.00), peripheral venous catheterization (p=0.04), VAP (p=0.04) and infected atelectasis (p=0.04) were detected. Independent risk factors for HAI mortality were VAP with Hazard Ratio = 3.14, 95% Confidential Interval [1.63 – 6.05] (p=0.001) and tracheotomy (Hazard Ratio=0.22, 95% Confidential Interval [0.10 – 0.44], p=0.000). Conclusions: In the present study, hospital acquired infection mortality rate was relatively high. We need to intensify the fight against these infections especially ventilator-associated pneumonia that is associated with higher risk of mortality in many studies. Thus, more effective infection control interventions were necessary in our hospital.

Keywords: hospital acquired infection, intensive care unit, mortality, risk factors

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Authors: Mahfoud Djebbar

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The past two decades or so have witnessed phenomenal growth of the Islamic financial services industry. The whole industry has been thriving at about 15 percent per annum. This development entails the Islamic financial engineering, IFE, to some kind of crossroads, lagging behind its conventional counterpart. Therefore, IFE, and particularly traded products development, and in order to achieve its goals, two approaches are available, i.e., replicating engineering and innovative engineering. We also try to emphasis the innovative strategy since it guards the Islamic identity of different financial products and processes, and thereby, improves the creativity in the Islamic financial industry. The attempt also centers on sukukization (Islamic securitization), innovation, liquidity management, and risk management and hedging in the Islamic financial system. Finally, the challenges facing IFE are also addressed.

Keywords: islamic financial engineering, hedging and risk management, innovation, securitization, money market instruments, islamic capital markets

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Authors: Deniss Rozkov, Hendrik Idema

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This paper researches the gender-based differences among US-American institutional investors regarding their preferences for sustainable development goals (SDGs) when investing. After employing a structured questionnaire as well as applying a choice-based conjoint analysis, it is found that female investors place significantly more emphasis on SDGs, especially in the social and ecological domain, exhibiting significantly stronger “other-regarding” characteristics compared to their male counterparts. Further, the results of the survey show that females show significantly higher risk aversion than males by selecting moderately conservative and moderate risk approaches.

Keywords: sustainable development goals, investing, socially responsible investor, gender, conjoint analysis

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Authors: Kunto Wibowo Agung Prodjonoto

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Occasionally, opportunities occur not due to chances but threats. This, however, is often not realized because a greater threat is perceived to be anything that threatens, endangers, or harms, resulting in bad impacts that are also part of the risk and consequence. As a result, more focus tends to direct towards the bad impacts. Risk, in this case, shall be seen rather as something challenging, which can turn to be an opportunity to tackle an obstacle. Therefore, it does not seem exaggerating if later, risk can be considered as a challenge that presents an opportunity. So as in the context of the threat of natural disasters which gives an idea that opportunities exist. Nature referred to in a fashion as 'natural disasters' captured an expression to picture the 'threats' aspect, which instructively implying a chance of opportunity. This is quite logical, as SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis can evaluate the situation at hand related to the analysis of various factors in formulating strategies to deal with natural disaster situations. The analytical method created by Albert Humphrey is indeed not an analytical tool to provide solutions, but certainly 'opportunities and challenges' are discussed therein on a vertical line, where opportunities are posited on the positive axis, and threats are posed on the negative axis. Observing this dynamism, the challenges and threats of disasters are having opportunity relevance to moralizing opportunities, that by quality poses universalism populist characteristics, universalism characteristics, and regional characteristics. Here, universalism appears as an opportunity domain underneath the threats and challenges of natural disasters.

Keywords: universality, opportunities, threats, challenges of natural disasters

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Authors: Hana Gebremariam Liliso

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This study investigates the factors contributing to the deterioration of thick asphalt pavements, such as rutting and cracking. We focus on the combined influence of traffic loads and pavement structure. This study uses a three-dimensional finite element model with a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion to analyze the stress levels near the pavement's surface under realistic conditions. Our model considers various factors, including tire-pavement contact stresses, asphalt properties, moving loads, and dynamic analysis. This research suggests that cracking tends to occur between dual tires. Some key discoveries include the risk of cracking increases as temperatures rise; surface cracking at high temperatures is associated with distortional deformation; using a uniform contact stress distribution underestimates the risk of failure compared to realistic three-dimensional tire contact stress, particularly at high temperatures; the risk of failure is higher near the surface when there is a negative temperature gradient in the asphalt layer; and debonding beneath the surface layer leads to increased shear stress and premature failure around the interface.

Keywords: asphalt pavement, surface failure, 3d finite element model, multiaxial stress states, Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion

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Authors: Mohamed A. Hammad, Dzul Azri Mohamed Noor, Syed Azhar Syed Sulaiman, Ahmed A. Khamis, Abeer Kharshid, Nor Azizah Aziz

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The effect of statins dose intensity (SDI) on glycemic control in patients with existing diabetes is unclear. Also, there are many contradictory findings were reported in the literature; thus, it is limiting the possibility to draw conclusions. This project was designed to compare the effect of SDI on glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c%) control in outpatients with Type 2 diabetes in the endocrine clinic at Hospital Pulau Pinang, Malaysia, between July 2015 and August 2016. A prospective cohort study was conducted, where records of 345 patients with Type 2 diabetes (Moderate-SDI group 289 patients and high-SDI cohort 56 patients) were reviewed to identify demographics and laboratory tests. The target of glycemic control (HbA1c < 7% for patient < 65 years, and < 8% for patient ≥ 65 years) was estimated, and the results were presented as descriptive statistics. From 289 moderate-SDI cohorts with a mean age of 57.3 ± 12.4 years, only 86 (29.8%) cases were shown to have controlled glycemia, while there were 203 (70.2%) cases with uncontrolled glycemia with confidence interval (CI) of 95% (6.2–10.8). On the other hand, the high-SDI group of 56 patients with Type 2 diabetes with a mean age 57.7±12.4 years is distributed among 11 (19.6%) patients with controlled diabetes, and 45 (80.4%) of them had uncontrolled glycemia, CI: 95% (7.1–11.9). The study has demonstrated that the relative risk (RR) of uncontrolled glycemia in patients with Type 2 diabetes that used high-SDI is 1.15, and the excessive relative risk (ERR) is 15%. The absolute risk (AR) is 10.2%, and the number needed to harm (NNH) is 10. Outpatients with Type 2 diabetes who use high-SDI of statin have a higher risk of uncontrolled glycemia than outpatients who had been treated with a moderate-SDI.

Keywords: cohort study, diabetes control, dose intensity, HbA1c, Malaysia, statin, type 2 diabetes mellitus, uncontrolled glycemia

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Authors: Medet K. Khamitov, Marat M. Ospanov, Vasiliy M. Lozovoy, Zhenis N. Sakuov, Dastan Z. Rustemov

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With a high rectosigmoid transitional zone in children with Hirschsprung’s disease, the upper rectal, sigmoid, left colon arteries are ligated during the pull-through of the descending part of the colon. As a result, the inferior mesenteric artery ceases to participate in the blood supply to the descending part of the colon. As a result, the reduced colon is supplied with blood only by the middle colon artery, which originates from the superior mesenteric artery. Insufficiency of blood supply to the reduced colon is the cause of the development of chronic hypoxia of the intestinal wall or necrosis of the reduced descending colon. Some surgeons prefer to preserve the left colon artery. However, it is possible to stretch the mesentery, which can lead to bowel retraction to anastomotic leaks and stenosis. Chronic hypoxia of the reduced colon, in turn, is the cause of acquired (secondary) aganglionosis. The highest frequency of anastomotic leaks is observed in children older than five years. The purpose is to reduce the risk of complications in the pull-through procedure of the descending part of the colon in patients with Hirschsprung’s disease by ensuring its sufficient mobility and maintaining blood supply to the lower mesenteric artery. Methodology and events. Two children aged 5 and 7 years with Hirschsprung’s disease were operated under the conditions of the hospital in Nur-Sultan. The diagnosis was made using x-ray contrast enema and histological examination. Operational technique. After revision of the left part of the colon and assessment of the architectonics of its blood vessels, parietal mobilization of the affected sigmoid and rectum was performed on laparotomy access, while maintaining the arterial and venous terminal arcades of the sigmoid vessels. Then, the descending branch of the left colon artery was crossed (if there is an insufficient length of the reduced intestine, the left colonic artery itself may also be crossed). This manipulation provides additional mobility of the pull-through descending part of the colon. The resulting "windows" in the mesentery of the reduced intestine were sutured to prevent the development of an internal hernia. Formed a full-blooded, sufficiently long transplant from the transverse loops of the splenic angle and the descending parts of the colon with blood supply from the upper and lower mesenteric artery, freely, without tension, is reduced to the rectal zone with the coloanal anastomosis 1.5 cm above the dentate line. Results. The postoperative period was uneventful. Patients were discharged on the 7th day. The observation was carried out for six months. In no case, there was a bowel retraction, anastomotic leak, anastomotic stenosis, or other complications. Conclusion. The presented technique of mobilization of the colon for the pull-through procedure in a high transitional rectosigmoid zone of Hirschsprung’s disease allows to maintain normal blood supply to the distal part of the colon and to avoid the tension of the colon. The technique allows reducing the risk of anastomotic leak, bowel necrosis, chronic ischemia, to exclude colon retraction and anastomotic stenosis.

Keywords: blood supply, children, colon mobilization, Hirschsprung's disease, pull-through

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Authors: Hamadi Djamal, Labiodh Bachir, Ounis Abdelhafid, Chaalane Mourad

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The objective of this work is setting numerically operational finite element CAXI_L for the axisymmetric and nonaxisymmetric shells. This element is based on the Reissner-Mindlin theory and mixed model formulation. The MATLAB language is used for the programming. In order to test the elaborated program, some applications are carried out.

Keywords: axisymmetric shells, nonaxisymmetric behaviour, finite element, MATLAB programming

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Authors: Rosario Carmona

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This article aims to discuss the importance of indigenous people participation in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Specifically, it analyses different understandings of climate vulnerability among diverse actors involved in climate change policies in Chile: indigenous people, state officials, and academics. These data were collected through participant observation and interviews conducted during October 2017 and January 2019 in Chile. Following Karen O’Brien, there are two types of vulnerability, outcome vulnerability and contextual vulnerability. How vulnerability to climate change is understood determines the approach, which actors are involved and which knowledge is considered to address it. Because climate change is a very complex phenomenon, it is necessary to transform the institutions and their responses. To do so, it is fundamental to consider these two perspectives and different types of knowledge, particularly those of the most vulnerable, such as indigenous people. For centuries and thanks to a long coexistence with the environment, indigenous societies have elaborated coping strategies, and some of them are already adapting to climate change. Indigenous people from Chile are not an exception. But, indigenous people tend to be excluded from decision-making processes. And indigenous knowledge is frequently seen as subjective and arbitrary in relation to science. Nevertheless, last years indigenous knowledge has gained particular relevance in the academic world, and indigenous actors are getting prominence in international negotiations. There are some mechanisms that promote their participation (e.g., Cancun safeguards, World Bank operational policies, REDD+), which are not absent from difficulties. And since 2016 parties are working on a Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Platform. This paper also explores the incidence of this process in Chile. Although there is progress in the participation of indigenous people, this participation responds to the operational policies of the funding agencies and not to a real commitment of the state with this sector. The State of Chile omits a review of the structure that promotes inequality and the exclusion of indigenous people. In this way, climate change policies could be configured as a new mechanism of coloniality that validates a single type of knowledge and leads to new territorial control strategies, which increases vulnerability.

Keywords: indigenous knowledge, climate change, vulnerability, Chile

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Authors: Magdalena B. Kaziuk, Waldemar Kosiba

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Background: In the XXI century we have to deal with the epidemic of obesity which is important risk factor for the cardiovascular and kidney diseases. Lipo proteins are directly involved in the atherosclerotic process. Non-high-density lipo protein (non-HDL) began following widespread recognition of its superiority over LDL as a measurement of vascular event risk. Non-HDL includes residual risk which persists in patients after achieved recommended level of LDL. Materials and Methods: The study covered 111 patients (52 females, 59 males, age 51,91±14 years), hospitalized on the intern department. Body composition was assessed using the bioimpendance method and anthropometric measurements. Physical activity data were collected during the interview. The nutritional status and the obesity type were determined with the Waist to Height Ratio and the Waist to Hip Ratio. A function of the kidney was evaluated by calculating the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using MDRD formula. Non-HDL was calculated as a difference between concentration of the Total and HDL cholesterol. Results: 10% of patients were found to be underweight; 23.9 % had correct body weight; 15,08 % had overweight, while the remaining group had obesity: 51,02 %. People with the android shape have higher non-HDL cholesterol versus with the gynoid shape (p=0.003). The higher was non-HDL, the lower eGFR had studied subjects (p < 0.001). Significant correlation was found between high non-HDL and incorrect dietary habits in patients avoiding eating vegetables, fruits and having low physical activity (p < 0.005). Conclusions: Android type of figure raises the residual risk of the heart disease associated with higher levels of non-HDL. Increasing physical activity in these patients reduces the level of non-HDL. Non-HDL seems to be the best predictor among all cholesterol measures for the cardiovascular events and worsening eGFR.

Keywords: obesity, non-HDL cholesterol, glomerular filtration rate, lifestyle

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Authors: Petar Dobrev

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There is no agreed-upon definition of firm quality. While profitability and stock performance often qualify as popular proxies of quality, in this project, we aim to identify quality without relying on a firm’s financial statements or stock returns as selection criteria. Instead, we use firm-level data on management practices across small to medium-sized U.S. manufacturing firms from the World Management Survey (WMS) to measure firm quality. Each firm in the WMS dataset is assigned a mean management score from 0 to 5, with higher scores identifying better-managed firms. This management score serves as our proxy for firm quality and is the sole criteria we use to separate firms into portfolios comprised of high-quality and low-quality firms. We define high-quality (low-quality) firms as those firms with a management score of one standard deviation above (below) the mean. To study whether this proxy for firm quality can identify better-performing firms, we link this data to Compustat and The Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) to obtain firm-level data on financial performance and monthly stock returns, respectively. We find that from 1999 to 2019 (our sample data period), firms in the high-quality portfolio are consistently more profitable — higher operating profitability and return on equity compared to low-quality firms. In addition, high-quality firms also exhibit a lower risk of bankruptcy — a higher Altman Z-score. Next, we test whether the stocks of the firms in the high-quality portfolio earn superior risk-adjusted excess returns. We regress the monthly excess returns on each portfolio on the Fama-French 3-factor, 4-factor, and 5-factor models, the betting-against-beta factor, and the quality-minus-junk factor. We find no statistically significant differences in excess returns between both portfolios, suggesting that stocks of high-quality (well managed) firms do not earn superior risk-adjusted returns compared to low-quality (poorly managed) firms. In short, our proxy for firm quality, the WMS management score, can identify firms with superior financial performance (higher profitability and reduced risk of bankruptcy). However, our management proxy cannot identify stocks that earn superior risk-adjusted returns, suggesting no statistically significant relationship between managerial quality and stock performance.

Keywords: excess stock returns, management, profitability, quality

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Authors: Hengki Eko Putra, Dennish Ari Putro, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Edi Riawan, Junnaedhi Dewa Gede, Aditia Rojali, Fariza Dian Prasetyo, Yudhistira Satya Pribadi, Dita Fatria Andarini, Mila Khaerunisa, Raditya Hanung Prakoswa

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Catastrophe risk management can only be done if we are able to calculate the exposed risks. Jakarta is an important city economically, socially, and politically and in the same time exposed to severe floods. On the other hand, flood risk calculation is still very limited in the area. This study has calculated the risk of flooding for Jakarta using 2-Dimensional Model ANUGA. 2-Dimensional model ANUGA and 1-Dimensional Model HEC-RAS are used to calculate the risk of flooding from 13 major rivers in Jakarta. ANUGA can simulate physical and dynamical processes between the streamflow against river geometry and land cover to produce a 1-meter resolution inundation map. The value of streamflow as an input for the model obtained from hydrological analysis on rainfall data using hydrologic model HEC-HMS. The probabilistic streamflow derived from probabilistic rainfall using statistical distribution Log-Pearson III, Normal and Gumbel, through compatibility test using Chi Square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov. Flood event on 2007 is used as a comparison to evaluate the accuracy of model output. Property damage estimations were calculated based on flood depth for 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return period against housing value data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Centre for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements, Ministry of Public Work Indonesia. The vulnerability factor was derived from flood insurance claim. Jakarta's flood loss estimation for the return period of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, respectively are Rp 1.30 t; Rp 16.18 t; Rp 16.85 t; Rp 21.21 t; Rp 24.32 t; and Rp 24.67 t of the total value of building Rp 434.43 t.

Keywords: 2D hydrodynamic model, ANUGA, flood, flood modeling

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Authors: Marcelo Jesus Kato Avila, Joao Da Costa Pantoja

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Differential settlement of foundations is a serious pathology in buildings that put at risk lives and property. A common reason for the occurrence of this specific pathology in central Brazil is the presence of collapsible clay, a typical soil in the region. In this study, the foundation of a condemned building erected above this soil is analyzed. The aim is to prevent problems in new constructions, to predict which buildings may be subjected to damages, and to make possible a more precise treatment in less advanced differential settlements observed in the buildings of the vicinity, which includes a hospital, a Military School, an indoor sporting arena, the Police Academy, and the Military Police Headquarters. The methodology consists of visual inspection, photographic report of the main pathologies, analysis of the existing foundations, determination of the soil properties, the study of the cracking level and assessment of structural failure risk of the building. The findings show that the presence of water weaken the soil structure on which the foundation rest, being the main cause of the pathologic settlement, indicating that even in a one store building it was necessary to consider deeper digging, other categories of foundations, and more elaborated and detailed foundation plans when the soil presents this behavior.

Keywords: building cracks, collapsible clay, differential settlement, structural failure risk

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Authors: Julian Jaegers, Siegmar Wirtz, Viktor Scherer

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Wood pellets belong to the most established trade formats of wood-based fuels. Especially, because of the transportability and the storage properties, but also due to low moisture content, high energy density, and the homogeneous particle size and shape, wood pellets are well suited for power generation in power plants and for the use in automated domestic firing systems. Before they are thermally converted, wood pellets pass various transport and storage procedures. There they undergo different mechanical impacts, which leads to pellet breakage and abrasion and to an increase in fines. The fines lead to operational problems during storage, charging, and discharging of pellets, they can increase the risk of dust explosions and can lead to pollutant emissions during combustion. In the current work, the dependence of the formation of fines caused by breakage during pneumatic transport is analyzed experimentally and numerically. The focus lies on the influence of conveying velocity, pellet loading, pipe diameter, and the shape of pipe components like bends or couplings. A test rig has been built, which allows the experimental evaluation of the pneumatic transport varying the above-mentioned parameters. Two high-speed cameras are installed for the quantitative optical access to the particle-particle and particle-wall contacts. The particle size distribution of the bulk before and after a transport process is measured as well as the amount of fines produced. The experiments will be compared with results of corresponding DEM/CFD simulations to provide information on contact frequencies and forces. The contribution proposed will present experimental results and report on the status of the DEM/CFD simulations. The final goal of the project is to provide a better insight into pellet breakage during pneumatic transport and to develop guidelines ensuring a more gentle transport.

Keywords: DEM/CFD-simulation of pneumatic conveying, mechanical impact on wood pellets during transportation, pellet breakage, pneumatic transport of wood pellets

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Authors: Destriyanti Sugiarti, Ririn A Wulandari

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Background: Malaria disease was widespread in many countries, both tropical and sub-tropical. Tasikmalaya is a region that experienced an increase in malaria cases over the last 5 years and highest in 2013, a total of 168 positive cases of malaria. Tasikmalaya region consists of coastal and mountain areas, it has a potential place for Anopheles mosquito breeding, i.e swamp, lagoon, andrice fields.The purpose of this study was to determine the correlation of environmental risk factors with the incidence of malaria in Tasikmalaya. Methods: The design of the study is case control study with 140 samples in 5 sub-district (Cineam, Cikatomas, Cipatujah, Salopa, and Jatiwaras). This study examines the environmental factors that influence the incidence of malaria in Tasikmalaya District in 2013. The research used 14 variables: individual characteristics (education, knowledge, occupation) and environmental risk factors (mobility to endemic areas, use mosquito nets, use of wire gauze at home, use mosquito repellent, repellent use, the presence of a large animal in a cage, breeding place, the presence of larvae, temperature and humidity chamber). Results: Results demonstrated an association between occupation (0.22; 0.10-0.47), the mobility of the population to the endemic areas (37.4; 14.29-98.18) ,the presence of larvae (5.26; 1.41-19.74), and the room temperature with optimum temperature for mosquito breeding is 25-30oC (3.25; 1.62- 6.50). Conclusion: The dominant factor affecting the spread of malaria in Tasikmalaya is the mobility of the population to endemic areas. The results of the study suggest migration survey conducted activity and health promotion for preventive efforts against malaria in malaria-endemic areas, and to encourage people to behave healthy life by freeing environment of mosquito larvae and protect themselves from mosquito bites.

Keywords: Environmental risk factors, malaria, correlation, Anopheles

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Authors: Melkamu A. Zeru, Yamral M. Warkaw, Aweke A. Mitku, Muluwerk Ayele

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Introduction: Malaria is a severe health threat in the World, mainly in Africa. It is the major cause of health problems in which the risk of morbidity and mortality associated with malaria cases are characterized by spatial variations across the county. This study aimed to investigate the spatial patterns and predictors of malaria distribution in Ethiopia. Methods: A weighted sample of 15,239 individuals with rapid diagnosis tests was obtained from the Central Statistical Agency and Ethiopia malaria indicator survey of 2015. Global Moran's I and Moran scatter plots were used in determining the distribution of malaria cases, whereas the local Moran's I statistic was used in identifying exposed areas. In data manipulation, machine learning was used for variable reduction and statistical software R, Stata, and Python were used for data management and analysis. The auto logistics spatial binary regression model was used to investigate the predictors of malaria. Results: The final auto logistics regression model reported that male clients had a positive significant effect on malaria cases as compared to female clients [AOR=2.401, 95 % CI: (2.125 - 2.713)]. The distribution of malaria across the regions was different. The highest incidence of malaria was found in Gambela [AOR=52.55, 95%CI: (40.54-68.12)] followed by Beneshangul [AOR=34.95, 95%CI: (27.159 - 44.963)]. Similarly, individuals in Amhara [AOR=0.243, 95% CI:(0.1950.303],Oromiya[AOR=0.197,95%CI:(0.1580.244)],DireDawa[AOR=0.064,95%CI(0.049-0.082)],AddisAbaba[AOR=0.057,95%CI:(0.044-0.075)], Somali[AOR=0.077,95%CI:(0.059-0.097)], SNNPR[OR=0.329, 95%CI: (0.261- 0.413)] and Harari [AOR=0.256, 95%CI:(0.201 - 0.325)] were less likely to had low incidence of malaria as compared with Tigray. Furthermore, for a one-meter increase in altitude, the odds of a positive rapid diagnostic test (RDT) decrease by 1.6% [AOR = 0.984, 95% CI :( 0.984 - 0.984)]. The use of a shared toilet facility was found as a protective factor for malaria in Ethiopia [AOR=1.671, 95% CI: (1.504 - 1.854)]. The spatial autocorrelation variable changes the constant from AOR = 0.471 for logistic regression to AOR = 0.164 for auto logistics regression. Conclusions: This study found that the incidence of malaria in Ethiopia had a spatial pattern that is associated with socio-economic, demographic, and geographic risk factors. Spatial clustering of malaria cases had occurred in all regions, and the risk of clustering was different across the regions. The risk of malaria was found to be higher for those who live in soil floor-type houses as compared to those who live in cement or ceramics floor type. Similarly, households with thatched, metal and thin, and other roof-type houses have a higher risk of malaria than ceramic tiles roof houses. Moreover, using a protected anti-mosquito net reduced the risk of malaria incidence.

Keywords: malaria, Ethiopia, auto logistics, spatial model, spatial clustering

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Authors: Ibrahim Mahamid, A. Al-Ghonamy, M. Aichouni

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This study aims at identifying the risk matrix for delay causes in construction projects in Saudi Arabia from consultants’ viewpoint. A questionnaire survey was undertaken of 51 consultants working on construction projects in the Northern Province of Saudi Arabia. 35 delay causes were identified through a literature review. The study concluded that the top delay causes in construction projects in Saudi Arabia from consultants’ perspective are: bid award for lowest price, changes in material types and specifications during construction, contract management, duration of contract period, fluctuation of prices of materials, frequent changes in design, improper planning, inflationary pressure, lack of adequate manpower, long period of design and time of implementation, payments delay, poor labor productivity, and rework.

Keywords: delays, construction, consultants, contributors, risk map

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Authors: Jasna Prester, Ivana Rašić Bakarić, Božidar Matijević

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Various prominent scholars and substantial practitioner-oriented literature on innovation orientation have shown positive effects on firm performance. There is a myriad of factors that influence and enhance innovation but it has been found in the literature that new product innovations accounted for an average of 14 percent of sales revenues for all firms. If there is one thing that has changed in innovation management during the last decade, it is the growing reliance on external partners. As a consequence, a new task for purchasing arises, as firms need to understand which suppliers actually do have high potential contributing to the innovativeness of the firm and which do not. Purchasing function in an organization is extremely important as it deals on an average of 50% or more of a firm's expenditures. In the nineties the purchasing department was largely seen as a transaction-oriented, clerical function but today purchasing integration provides a formal interface mechanism between purchasing and other firm functions that services other functions within the company. Purchasing function has to be organized differently to enable firm innovation potential. However, innovations are inherently risky. There are behavioral risk (that some partner will take advantage of the other party), technological risk in terms of complexity of products and processes of manufacturing and incoming materials and finally market risks, which in fact judge the value of the innovation. These risks are investigated in this work since it has been found in the literature that the higher the technological risk, higher will be the centralization of the purchasing function as an interface with other supply chain members. Most researches on organization of purchasing function were done by case study analysis of innovative firms. This work actually tends to prove or discard results found in the literature based on case study method. A large data set of 1493 companies, from 25 countries collected in the GMRG 4 survey served as a basis for analysis.

Keywords: purchasing function organization, innovation, technological risk, GMRG 4 survey

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Authors: Nitzan Winograd, Nada Kakabadse

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This study examines whether the hospitality-based social enterprise Ringelblum Café is achieving its stated social goals of developing a sense of self-efficacy among at-risk youth who work in this enterprise and raising levels of recruitment to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and National Service (NS) among these young adults. Ringelblum Café was founded in 2009 in Be'er-Sheva in order to provide employment solutions for at-risk youth in the southern district of Israel. Each year, 10 at-risk young adults aged 16–18 are referred to the programme by various welfare agencies. The training programme is approximately a year in duration and includes professional training in the art of cooking. Each young adult is also supported by a social worker. This study is based on the participation of 31 youths who graduated from the Ringelblum Café’s training programme. A convenience sampling model was used with the assistance of the programme's social worker. This study is quantitative in its approach. Data was collected by means of three separate self-reported questionnaires: a personal information questionnaire collected general demographics data; a self-efficacy questionnaire consisted of two parts: general self-efficacy and social self-efficacy; and an IDS/NS recruitment questionnaire. The study uses the theory of change in order to find out whether at-risk youth in the Ringelblum Café programme are taught a profession with future prospects, as well as whether they develop a sense of self-efficacy and raise their chances of recruitment into the IDF/NS. The study found that the sense of self-efficacy of the graduates is relatively high. In addition, there was a significant difference between the importance of recruitment to the IDF/NS among these youth prior to the beginning of the programme and after its completion, indicating that the training programme had a positive effect on motivation for recruitment to the IDF/NS. The study also found that the percentage of recruits to the IDF/NS among youth who graduated from the training programme were not significantly higher than the general recruitment figures in Israel. In conclusion, Ringelblum Café is making sound progress towards achieving its social goals regarding recruitment to the IDF/NS. Moreover, the sense of self-efficacy among the graduates is relatively high, and it can be assumed that the training programme has a positive effect on these young adults, although there is no clear connection between the two. This study is among a few that have been conducted in the field of hospitality-based social enterprises in Israel and can serve as a basis for further research. Moreover, the study results may help improve the perception of at-risk youth and their contribution to society and could increase awareness of the growing trend of social enterprises promoting social goals.

Keywords: at-risk youth, Israel Defence Forces (IDF), national service, recruitment, self-efficacy, social enterprise

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Authors: Naser Shagerdi Esmaeli, Mohsen Hamidpour

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Purposes: The activation of coagulation in patients with cancer contributes significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and may play a fundamental role in the host response to growing tumor’s. Patients with cancer are clearly at high risk for the development of venous thromboembolism (VTE), particularly during chemotherapy and surgery. This situation is aggravated by the use of venous access catheters and possibly growth factors. Methods: Data derived from large, randomized, controlled trials have been used to determine the true incidence of this complication of cancer and its treatment. The incidence based on the analyses of these randomized controlled trials varies from 1% for limited stage patients with breast cancer treated with tamoxifen to 60% for patients with any type of cancer who are subjected to orthopedic surgery and do not receive prophylactic therapy. Results: In view of the morbidity and mortality attributable to VTE in cancer, widespread utilization of prophylactic anticoagulation therapy, which has proven safe and effective in a variety of situations, should be considered. While migratory thrombophlebitis is a clear indicator of an underlying neoplasm, the risk of cancer in patients with the more typical form of VTE has been the subject of intense debate over recent years. Conclusion: Some investigators have suggested that the relative risk of being diagnosed with occult cancer within six months of an episode of VTE (particularly recurrent VTE) could be up to 10-fold. However, the cost-effectiveness of aggressive screening for cancer in patients with VTE has not yet been defined adequately.

Keywords: venous thromboembolism, malignancy, cancer, tumor, heparin

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Authors: Takeo Shibata, Arihito Endo, Chika Hiraga, Akemi Kunimatsu, Yoko Shimizu

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Introduction: A health promotion program, Yuzawa family health plan, was initiated in 2002. It has been held for fifteen years. Yuzawa Town is famous with hot springs and ski resorts. We evaluated the changes in mental status in elementary school children. Methods: questionnaires survey had been held every five years. 196 questionnaires were corrected (94 boys and 102 girls). Changes for their anxieties, loneliness, confiding, problem-solving, risk breaching, communications, happiness, and life satisfaction were evaluated by chi-square test. Results: The rate of loneliness and life dissatisfactions decreased. The rates of happiness, confiding in grandparents, and risk breaching, increased. Especially, happiness rates increased for boys, loneliness rate decreased for girls, confiding in grandparents and risk breaching rate increased for girls. Conclusion: Our health promotion programs could increase mental health status in elementary school children.

Keywords: health promotion, mental status, elementary school, loneliness, happiness

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Authors: Rachana Tank, Donald. M. Lyall, Kristin Flegal, Joey Ward, Jonathan Cavanagh

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Alzheimer’s research UK estimates by 2050, 2 million individuals will be living with Late Onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD). However, individuals experience considerable cognitive deficits and brain pathology over decades before reaching clinically diagnosable LOAD and studies have utilised gene candidate studies such as genome wide association studies (GWAS) and polygenic risk (PGR) scores to identify high risk individuals and potential pathways. This investigation aims to determine whether high genetic risk of LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive performance in healthy older adults within the UK Biobank cohort. Previous studies investigating associations of PGR for LOAD and measures of MRI or cognitive functioning have focused on specific aspects of hippocampal structure, in relatively small sample sizes and with poor ‘controlling’ for confounders such as smoking. Both the sample size of this study and the discovery GWAS sample are bigger than previous studies to our knowledge. Genetic interaction between loci showing largest effects in GWAS have not been extensively studied and it is known that APOE e4 poses the largest genetic risk of LOAD with potential gene-gene and gene-environment interactions of e4, for this reason we  also analyse genetic interactions of PGR with the APOE e4 genotype. High genetic loading based on a polygenic risk score of 21 SNPs for LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive outcomes in healthy individuals within the UK Biobank cohort. Summary statistics from Kunkle et al., GWAS meta-analyses (case: n=30,344, control: n=52,427) will be used to create polygenic risk scores based on 21 SNPs and analyses will be carried out in N=37,000 participants in the UK Biobank. This will be the largest study to date investigating PGR of LOAD in relation to MRI. MRI outcome measures include WM tracts, structural volumes. Cognitive function measures include reaction time, pairs matching, trail making, digit symbol substitution and prospective memory. Interaction of the APOE e4 alleles and PGR will be analysed by including APOE status as an interaction term coded as either 0, 1 or 2 e4 alleles. Models will be adjusted partially for adjusted for age, BMI, sex, genotyping chip, smoking, depression and social deprivation. Preliminary results suggest PGR score for LOAD is associated with decreased hippocampal volumes including hippocampal body (standardised beta = -0.04, P = 0.022) and tail (standardised beta = -0.037, P = 0.030), but not with hippocampal head. There were also associations of genetic risk with decreased cognitive performance including fluid intelligence (standardised beta = -0.08, P<0.01) and reaction time (standardised beta = 2.04, P<0.01). No genetic interactions were found between APOE e4 dose and PGR score for MRI or cognitive measures. The generalisability of these results is limited by selection bias within the UK Biobank as participants are less likely to be obese, smoke, be socioeconomically deprived and have fewer self-reported health conditions when compared to the general population. Lack of a unified approach or standardised method for calculating genetic risk scores may also be a limitation of these analyses. Further discussion and results are pending.

Keywords: Alzheimer's dementia, cognition, polygenic risk, MRI

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Authors: Kalpana Rajouriya, Ajay Taneja

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The objective of the present study is to investigate the regional and lobar deposition of size-segregated PM in respiratory tract of human body. PM in different fractions is monitored using the Grimm portable environmental dust monitor during winter season in Firozabad; a Glass city of India. PM10 concentration (200.817g/m³) was 4.46 and 2.0 times higher than the limits prescribed by WHO (45g/m⁻³) and NAAQS (100g/m⁻³) government agencies. PM2.5 concentration (83.538 g/m3) was 5.56 and 1.39 times higher from WHO (15g/m-3) and NAAQS (60g/m⁻³) limits. Results inferred that PM10 and PM2.5 was highest deposited in head region (0.3477-0.5622 & 0.366-0.4704) followed by pulmonary region, especially in the 9-21year old persons. The variation in deposition percentage in our study is mainly due to the airway geometry, PM size, and its deposition mechanisms. The coarse fraction, due to its large size, cannot follow the airway path and mostly gets deposited by inertial impaction in the head region and its bifurcations. The present study results inferred that Coarse and fine PM deposition was highly visualized in 9 (8.45610⁻⁴ g, 2.91110⁻⁴g) year and 3 (1.49610⁻⁴ g, 8.59310⁻⁵g) month age category. So, the 9year children and 3month infants category have high level of health risk.

Keywords: particulate matter, MPPD model, regional deposition, lobar deposition, health risk

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Authors: Maryam Siyami

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Nowadays, one of the major environmental challenges is hospital waste, which, due to the presence of hazardous, toxic, and infectious agents, is of particular concern. The expansion of cities and population growth has significantly accelerated the establishment of various healthcare institutions. In this paper, the geotechnical-environmental risks in healthcare centers have been examined. The Iranian Leopold Matrix method was used to analyze the data. According to the study results, the greatest impact was related to socio-economic, environmental factors, particularly waste and wastewater management. Additionally, the most significant geotechnical-environmental risks at hospital were hospital hazardous waste, chemicals, and waste disposal. In conclusion, the most beneficial geotechnical-environmental measures were determined to be wastewater collection, waste collection, and recycling.

Keywords: risk, geotechnics, environment, Leopold Matrix

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Authors: Shaneil Taylor

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Gender-based violence is a reflection of the inequalities that are associated within a society between the men and women that affects the health, dignity, security and autonomy of its victims. There are various determinants that contribute to the health risk of young women who have experienced sexual violence, in countries that have a high prevalence rate for HIV. For instance, in South Africa, where the highest prevalence rate for HIV is among young women, their susceptibility to the virus has been increased by sexual violence and cultural inequalities. Therefore, this study is a review of literature that explores how gender-based violence increases the possibility for HIV/AIDS among young women in South Africa.

Keywords: gender-based violence, HIV/AIDS transmission, risky sexual behavior, young women

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Authors: Amiel Satvedi, Richard Pyne

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Injuries in professional sports occur on a regular basis. Some may be minor, while others can cause huge impact on a player's career and earning potential. In soccer, there is a high risk of players picking up injuries during game time. This research work seeks to help soccer players reduce the risk of getting injured by predicting the likelihood of injury while playing in the near future and then providing recommendations for intervention. The injury prediction tool will use a soccer player's number of minutes played on the field, number of appearances, distance covered and performance data for the current and previous seasons as variables to conduct statistical analysis and provide injury predictive results using a machine learning linear regression model.

Keywords: injury predictor, soccer injury prevention, machine learning in soccer, big data in soccer

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Authors: Sittipong Jarernprasert, Enrique Bazan-Zurita, Paul C. Rizzo

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Currently, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) for nuclear facilities use In-Structure Response Spectra (ISRS) in the calculation of fragilities for systems and components. ISRS are calculated via dynamic analyses of the host building subjected to two orthogonal components of horizontal ground motion. Each component is defined as the median motion in any horizontal direction. Structural engineers applied the components along selected X and Y Cartesian axes. The ISRS at different locations in the building are also calculated in the X and Y directions. The choice of the directions of X and Y are not specified by the ground motion model with respect to geographic coordinates, and are rather arbitrarily selected by the structural engineer. Normally, X and Y coincide with the “principal” axes of the building, in the understanding that this practice is generally conservative. For SPRA purposes, however, it is desirable to remove any conservatism in the estimates of median ISRS. This paper examines the effects of the direction of horizontal seismic motion on the ISRS on typical nuclear structure. We also evaluate the variability of ISRS calculated along different horizontal directions. Our results indicate that some central measures of the ISRS provide robust estimates that are practically independent of the selection of the directions of the horizontal Cartesian axes.

Keywords: seismic, directionality, in-structure response spectra, probabilistic risk assessment

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