Search results for: standard deviation (CSD)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5293

Search results for: standard deviation (CSD)

4093 Assessing the Impact of Pharmacist-Led Medication Therapy Management on Treatment Adherence and Clinical Outcomes in Cancer Patients: A Prospective Intervention Study

Authors: Omer Ibrahim Abdallh Omer

Abstract:

Cancer patients often face complex medication regimens, leading to challenges in treatment adherence and clinical outcomes. Pharmacist-led medication therapy management (MTM) has emerged as a potential solution to optimize medication use and improve patient outcomes in oncology settings. In this prospective intervention study, we aimed to evaluate the impact of pharmacist-led MTM on treatment adherence and clinical outcomes among cancer patients. Participants were randomized to receive either pharmacist-led MTM or standard care, with assessments conducted at baseline and follow-up visits. Pharmacist interventions included medication reconciliation, adherence counseling, and personalized care plans. Our findings reveal that pharmacist-led MTM significantly improved medication adherence rates and clinical outcomes compared to standard care. Patients receiving pharmacist interventions reported higher satisfaction levels and perceived value in pharmacist involvement in their cancer care. These results underscore the critical role of pharmacists in optimizing medication therapy and enhancing patient-centered care in oncology settings. Integration of pharmacist-led MTM into routine cancer care pathways holds promise for improving treatment outcomes and quality of life for cancer patients.

Keywords: cancer, medications adherence, medication therapy management, pharmacist

Procedia PDF Downloads 63
4092 The Aspect of the Human Bias in Decision Making within Quality Management Systems and LEAN Theory

Authors: Adriana Avila Zuniga Nordfjeld

Abstract:

This paper provides a literature review to document the state of the art with respect to handling 'human bias' in decision making within the established quality management systems (QMS) and LEAN theory, in the context of shipbuilding. Previous research shows that in shipbuilding there is a huge deviation from the planned man-hours under the project management to the actual man-hours used because of errors in planning and reworks caused by human bias in the information flows among others. This reduces the efficiency and increases operational costs. Thus, the research question is how QMS and LEAN handle biases. The findings show the gap in studying the integration of methods to handle human bias in decision making into QMS and lean, not only within shipbuilding but also in general. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed for researchers and practitioners in the areas of decision making QMS, LEAN, and future research is suggested.

Keywords: human bias, decision making, LEAN shipbuilding, quality management systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 547
4091 A Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model for Flexible Job Shop Scheduling Problem

Authors: Mohsen Ziaee

Abstract:

In this paper, a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is presented to solve the flexible job shop scheduling problem (FJSP). This problem is one of the hardest combinatorial problems. The objective considered is the minimization of the makespan. The computational results of the proposed MILP model were compared with those of the best known mathematical model in the literature in terms of the computational time. The results show that our model has better performance with respect to all the considered performance measures including relative percentage deviation (RPD) value, number of constraints, and total number of variables. By this improved mathematical model, larger FJS problems can be optimally solved in reasonable time, and therefore, the model would be a better tool for the performance evaluation of the approximation algorithms developed for the problem.

Keywords: scheduling, flexible job shop, makespan, mixed integer linear programming

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
4090 Well-Being Inequality Using Superimposing Satisfaction Waves: Heisenberg Uncertainty in Behavioral Economics and Econometrics

Authors: Okay Gunes

Abstract:

In this article, for the first time in the literature for this subject we propose a new method for the measuring of well-being inequality through a model composed of superimposing satisfaction waves. The displacement of households’ satisfactory state (i.e. satisfaction) is defined in a satisfaction string. The duration of the satisfactory state for a given period of time is measured in order to determine the relationship between utility and total satisfactory time, itself dependent on the density and tension of each satisfaction string. Thus, individual cardinal total satisfaction values are computed by way of a one-dimensional form for scalar sinusoidal (harmonic) moving wave function, using satisfaction waves with varying amplitudes and frequencies which allow us to measure well-being inequality. One advantage to using satisfaction waves is the ability to show that individual utility and consumption amounts would probably not commute; hence it is impossible to measure or to know simultaneously the values of these observables from the dataset. Thus, we crystallize the problem by using a Heisenberg-type uncertainty resolution for self-adjoint economic operators. We propose to eliminate any estimation bias by correlating the standard deviations of selected economic operators; this is achieved by replacing the aforementioned observed uncertainties with households’ perceived uncertainties (i.e. corrected standard deviations) obtained through the logarithmic psychophysical law proposed by Weber and Fechner.

Keywords: Heisenberg uncertainty principle, superimposing satisfaction waves, Weber–Fechner law, well-being inequality

Procedia PDF Downloads 440
4089 Evaluation of Different Liquid Scintillation Counting Methods for 222Rn Determination in Waters

Authors: Jovana Nikolov, Natasa Todorovic, Ivana Stojkovic

Abstract:

Monitoring of 222Rn in drinking or surface waters, as well as in groundwater has been performed in connection with geological, hydrogeological and hydrological surveys and health hazard studies. Liquid scintillation counting (LSC) is often preferred analytical method for 222Rn measurements in waters because it allows multiple-sample automatic analysis. LSC method implies mixing of water samples with organic scintillation cocktail, which triggers radon diffusion from the aqueous into organic phase for which it has a much greater affinity, eliminating possibility of radon emanation in that manner. Two direct LSC methods that assume different sample composition have been presented, optimized and evaluated in this study. One-phase method assumed direct mixing of 10 ml sample with 10 ml of emulsifying cocktail (Ultima Gold AB scintillation cocktail is used). Two-phase method involved usage of water-immiscible cocktails (in this study High Efficiency Mineral Oil Scintillator, Opti-Fluor O and Ultima Gold F are used). Calibration samples were prepared with aqueous 226Ra standard in glass 20 ml vials and counted on ultra-low background spectrometer Quantulus 1220TM equipped with PSA (Pulse Shape Analysis) circuit which discriminates alpha/beta spectra. Since calibration procedure is carried out with 226Ra standard, which has both alpha and beta progenies, it is clear that PSA discriminator has vital importance in order to provide reliable and precise spectra separation. Consequentially, calibration procedure was done through investigation of PSA discriminator level influence on 222Rn efficiency detection, using 226Ra calibration standard in wide range of activity concentrations. Evaluation of presented methods was based on obtained efficiency detections and achieved Minimal Detectable Activity (MDA). Comparison of presented methods, accuracy and precision as well as different scintillation cocktail’s performance was considered from results of measurements of 226Ra spiked water samples with known activity and environmental samples.

Keywords: 222Rn in water, Quantulus1220TM, scintillation cocktail, PSA parameter

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4088 Effectiveness of Mobile Health Augmented Cardiac Rehabilitation (MCard) on Health-Related Quality of Life among Post-Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Authors: Aliya Hisam, Zia Ul Haq, Sohail Aziz, Patrick Doherty, Jill Pell

Abstract:

Objective: To determine the effectiveness of Mobile health augmented Cardiac rehabilitation (MCard) on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among post-acute coronary syndrome(post-ACS) patients. Methodology: In a randomized controlled trial, post-ACS patients were randomly allocated (1:1) to an intervention group (received MCard; counseling, empowering with self-monitoring devices, short text messages, in addition to standard post-ACS care) or control group (standard post-ACS care). HRQoL was assessed by generic Short Form-12 and MacNew quality of life myocardial infarction (QLMI) tools. Participants were followed for 24 weeks with data collection and analysis at three-time points (baseline, 12 weeks and 24 weeks). Result: At baseline, 160 patients (80 in each group; mean age 52.66+8.46 years; 126 males, 78.75%) were recruited, of which 121(75.62%) continued and were analyzed at 12-weeks and 119(74.37%) at 24-weeks. The mean SF-12 physical component score significantly improved in the MCard group at 12 weeks follow-up (48.93 vs. control 43.87, p<.001) and 24 weeks (53.52 vs. 46.82 p<.001). The mean SF-12 mental component scores also improved significantly in the MCard group at 12 weeks follow-up (44.84 vs. control 41.40, p<.001) and 24 weeks follow-up (48.95 vs 40.12, p<.001). At 12-and 24-week follow-up, all domains of MacNew QLMI (social, emotional, physical and global) were also statistically significant (p<.001) improved in the MCard group, unlike the control group. Conclusion: MCard is feasible and effective at improving all domains of HRQoL. There was an improvement in physical, mental, social, emotional and global domains among the MCard group in comparison to the control group. The addition of MCard programs to post-ACS standard care may improve patient outcomes and reduce the burden on the health care setting.

Keywords: acute coronary syndrome, mobile health augmented cardiac rehabilitation (MCard), cardiovascular diseases, cardiac rehabilitation, health-related quality of life, short form 12, MacNew QLMI

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4087 Use of Corporate Social Responsibility in Environmental Protection: Modern Mechanisms of Environmental Self-Regulation

Authors: Jakub Stelina, Janina Ciechanowicz-McLean

Abstract:

Fifty years of existence and development of international environmental law brought a deep disappointment with efficiency and effectiveness of traditional command and control mechanisms of environmental regulation. Agenda 21 agreed during the first Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro 1992 was one of the first international documents, which explicitly underlined the importance of public participation in environmental protection. This participation includes also the initiatives undertaken by business corporations in the form of private environmental standards setting. Twenty years later during the Rio 20+ Earth Summit the private sector obligations undertaken during the negotiations have proven to be at least as important as the ones undertaken by the governments. The private sector has taken the leading role in environmental standard setting. Among the research methods used in the article two are crucial in the analysis. The comparative analysis of law is the instrument used in the article to analyse the practice of states and private business companies in the field of sustainable development. The article uses economic analysis of law to estimate the costs and benefits of Corporate Social Responsibility Projects in the field of environmental protection. The study is based on the four premises. First is the role of social dialogue, which is crucial for both Corporate Social Responsibility and modern environmental protection regulation. The Aarhus Convention creates a procedural environmental human right to participate in administrative procedures of law setting and environmental decisions making. The public participation in environmental impact assessment is nowadays a universal standard. Second argument is about the role of precaution as a principle of modern environmental regulation. This principle can be observed both in governmental regulatory undertakings and also private initiatives within the Corporate Social Responsibility environmental projects. Even in the jurisdictions which are relatively reluctant to use the principle of preventive action in environmental regulation, the companies often use this standard in their own private business standard setting initiatives. This is often due to the fact that soft law standards are used as the basis for private Corporate Social Responsibility regulatory initiatives. Third premise is about the role of ecological education in environmental protection. Many soft law instruments underline the importance of environmental education. Governments use environmental education only to the limited extent due to the costs of such projects and problems with effects assessment. Corporate Social Responsibility uses various means of ecological education as the basis of their actions in the field of environmental protection. Last but not least Sustainable development is a goal of both legal protection of the environment, and economic instruments of companies development. Modern environmental protection law uses to the increasing extent the Corporate Social Responsibility. This may be the consequence of the limits of hard law regulation. Corporate Social Responsibility is nowadays not only adapting to soft law regulation of environmental protection but also creates such standards by itself, showing new direction for development of international environmental law. Corporate Social Responsibility in environmental protection can be good investment in future development of the company.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, environmental CSR, environmental justice, stakeholders dialogue

Procedia PDF Downloads 299
4086 Evaluation of Environmental Management System Implementation of Construction Projects in Turkey

Authors: Aydemir Akyürek, Osman Nuri Ağdağ

Abstract:

Construction industry is in a rapid development for many years around the world and especially in Turkey. In the last three years sector has 10% growth and provides significant support on Turkey’s national economy. Many construction projects are on-going at urban and rural areas of Turkey which have substantial environmental impacts. Environmental impacts during construction phase are quite diversified and widespread. Environmental impacts of construction industry cannot be inspected properly in all cases and negative impacts may occur frequently in many projects in Turkey. In this study, implementation of ISO 14001 Environmental Management System (EMS) in construction plants is evaluated. In the beginning stage quality management systems generally reviewed and ISO 14001 EMS is selected for implementation. Standard requirements are examined first and implementation of every standard requirement is elaborated for the selected construction plant in the following stage. Key issues and common problems, gained benefits by execution of this type of international EMS standard are examined. As can be seen in sample projects, construction projects are being completed very fast and contractors are working in a highly competitive environment with low profit ratios in our country and mostly qualified work force cannot be accessible. Addition to this there are deficits on waste handling and environmental infrastructure. Besides construction companies which have substantial investments on EMSs can be faced with difficulties on competitiveness in domestic market, however professional Turkish contractors which implementing managements systems in larger scale at international projects are gaining successful results. Also the concept of ‘construction project management’ which is being implemented in successful projects worldwide cannot be implemented except larger projects in Turkey. In case of nonexistence of main management system (quality) implementation of EMSs cannot be managed. Despite all constraints, EMSs that will be implemented in this industry with commitment of top managements and demand of customers will be an enabling, facilitating tool to determine environmental aspects and impacts of construction sites, will provide higher compliance levels for environmental legislation, to establish best available methods for operational control on waste management, chemicals management etc. and to plan monitoring and measurement, to prioritize environmental aspects for investment schedules and waste management.

Keywords: environmental management system, construction projects, ISO 14001, quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 362
4085 Recommended Practice for Experimental Evaluation of the Seepage Sensitivity Damage of Coalbed Methane Reservoirs

Authors: Hao Liu, Lihui Zheng, Chinedu J. Okere, Chao Wang, Xiangchun Wang, Peng Zhang

Abstract:

The coalbed methane (CBM) extraction industry (an unconventional energy source) is yet to promulgated an established standard code of practice for the experimental evaluation of sensitivity damage of coal samples. The existing experimental process of previous researches mainly followed the industry standard for conventional oil and gas reservoirs (CIS). However, the existing evaluation method ignores certain critical differences between CBM reservoirs and conventional reservoirs, which could inevitably result in an inaccurate evaluation of sensitivity damage and, eventually, poor decisions regarding the formulation of formation damage prevention measures. In this study, we propose improved experimental guidelines for evaluating seepage sensitivity damage of CBM reservoirs by leveraging on the shortcomings of the existing methods. The proposed method was established via a theoretical analysis of the main drawbacks of the existing methods and validated through comparative experiments. The results show that the proposed evaluation technique provided reliable experimental results that can better reflect actual reservoir conditions and correctly guide future development of CBM reservoirs. This study is pioneering the research on the optimization of experimental parameters for efficient exploration and development of CBM reservoirs.

Keywords: coalbed methane, formation damage, permeability, unconventional energy source

Procedia PDF Downloads 127
4084 Prevalence and Risk Factors of Musculoskeletal Disorders among School Teachers in Mangalore: A Cross Sectional Study

Authors: Junaid Hamid Bhat

Abstract:

Background: Musculoskeletal disorders are one of the main causes of occupational illness. Mechanisms and the factors like repetitive work, physical effort and posture, endangering the risk of musculoskeletal disorders would now appear to have been properly identified. Teacher’s exposure to work-related musculoskeletal disorders appears to be insufficiently described in the literature. Little research has investigated the prevalence and risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders in teaching profession. Very few studies are available in this regard and there are no studies evident in India. Purpose: To determine the prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders and to identify and measure the association of such risk factors responsible for developing musculoskeletal disorders among school teachers. Methodology: An observational cross sectional study was carried out. 500 school teachers from primary, middle, high and secondary schools were selected, based on eligibility criteria. A signed consent was obtained and a self-administered, validated questionnaire was used. Descriptive statistics was used to compute the statistical mean and standard deviation, frequency and percentage to estimate the prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders among school teachers. The data analysis was done by using SPSS version 16.0. Results: Results indicated higher pain prevalence (99.6%) among school teachers during the past 12 months. Neck pain (66.1%), low back pain (61.8%) and knee pain (32.0%) were the most prevalent musculoskeletal complaints of the subjects. Prevalence of shoulder pain was also found to be high among school teachers (25.9%). 52.0% subjects reported pain as disabling in nature, causing sleep disturbance (44.8%) and pain was found to be associated with work (87.5%). A significant association was found between musculoskeletal disorders and sick leaves/absenteeism. Conclusion: Work-related musculoskeletal disorders particularly neck pain, low back pain, and knee pain, is highly prevalent and risk factors are responsible for the development of same in school teachers. There is little awareness of musculoskeletal disorders among school teachers, due to work load and prolonged/static postures. Further research should concentrate on specific risk factors like repetitive movements, psychological stress, and ergonomic factors and should be carried out all over the country and the school teachers should be studied carefully over a period of time. Also, an ergonomic investigation is needed to decrease the work-related musculoskeletal disorder problems. Implication: Recall bias and self-reporting can be considered as limitations. Also, cause and effect inferences cannot be ascertained. Based on these results, it is important to disseminate general recommendations for prevention of work-related musculoskeletal disorders with regards to the suitability of furniture, equipment and work tools, environmental conditions, work organization and rest time to school teachers. School teachers in the early stage of their careers should try to adapt the ergonomically favorable position whilst performing their work for a safe and healthy life later. Employers should be educated on practical aspects of prevention to reduce musculoskeletal disorders, since changes in workplace and work organization and physical/recreational activities are required.

Keywords: work related musculoskeletal disorders, school teachers, risk factors funding, medical and health sciences

Procedia PDF Downloads 277
4083 Computational Fluid Dynamics Study on Water Soot Blower Direction in Tangentially Fired Pulverized-Coal Boiler

Authors: Teewin Plangsrinont, Wasawat Nakkiew

Abstract:

In this study, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was utilized to simulate and predict the path of water from water soot blower through an ambient flow field in 300-megawatt tangentially burned pulverized coal boiler that utilizes a water soot blower as a cleaning device. To predict the position of the impact of water on the opposite side of the water soot blower under identical conditions, the nozzle size and water flow rate were fixed in this investigation. The simulation findings demonstrated a high degree of accuracy in predicting the direction of water flow to the boiler's water wall tube, which was validated by comparison to experimental data. Results show maximum deviation value of the water jet trajectory is 10.2 percent.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, tangentially fired boiler, thermal power plant, water soot blower

Procedia PDF Downloads 209
4082 Prosodic Transfer in Foreign Language Learning: A Phonetic Crosscheck of Intonation and F₀ Range between Italian and German Native and Non-Native Speakers

Authors: Violetta Cataldo, Renata Savy, Simona Sbranna

Abstract:

Background: Foreign Language Learning (FLL) is characterised by prosodic transfer phenomena regarding pitch accents placement, intonation patterns, and pitch range excursion from the learners’ mother tongue to their Foreign Language (FL) which suggests that the gradual development of general linguistic competence in FL does not imply an equally correspondent improvement of the prosodic competence. Topic: The present study aims to monitor the development of prosodic competence of learners of Italian and German throughout the FLL process. The primary object of this study is to investigate the intonational features and the f₀ range excursion of Italian and German from a cross-linguistic perspective; analyses of native speakers’ productions point out the differences between this pair of languages and provide models for the Target Language (TL). A following crosscheck compares the L2 productions in Italian and German by non-native speakers to the Target Language models, in order to verify the occurrence of prosodic interference phenomena, i.e., type, degree, and modalities. Methodology: The subjects of the research are university students belonging to two groups: Italian native speakers learning German as FL and German native speakers learning Italian as FL. Both of them have been divided into three subgroups according to the FL proficiency level (beginners, intermediate, advanced). The dataset consists of wh-questions placed in situational contexts uttered in both speakers’ L1 and FL. Using a phonetic approach, analyses have considered three domains of intonational contours (Initial Profile, Nuclear Accent, and Terminal Contour) and two dimensions of the f₀ range parameter (span and level), which provide a basis for comparison between L1 and L2 productions. Findings: Results highlight a strong presence of prosodic transfer phenomena affecting L2 productions in the majority of both Italian and German learners, irrespective of their FL proficiency level; the transfer concerns all the three domains of the contour taken into account, although with different modalities and characteristics. Currently, L2 productions of German learners show a pitch span compression on the domain of the Terminal Contour compared to their L1 towards the TL; furthermore, German learners tend to use lower pitch range values in deviation from their L1 when improving their general linguistic competence in Italian FL proficiency level. Results regarding pitch range span and level in L2 productions by Italian learners are still in progress. At present, they show a similar tendency to expand the pitch span and to raise the pitch level, which also reveals a deviation from the L1 possibly in the direction of German TL. Conclusion: Intonational features seem to be 'resistant' parameters to which learners appear not to be particularly sensitive. By contrast, they show a certain sensitiveness to FL pitch range dimensions. Making clear which the most resistant and the most sensitive parameters are when learning FL prosody could lay groundwork for the development of prosodic trainings thanks to which learners could finally acquire a clear and natural pronunciation and intonation.

Keywords: foreign language learning, German, Italian, L2 prosody, pitch range, transfer

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4081 Methanolic Extract of the Exudates of Aloe Otallensis and Its Effect on Leishmania Donovani Parasite

Authors: Zerihun Tesfaye Nigusse

Abstract:

Objective: This study evaluates the antileishmanial activity of the methanolic extract of Aloe otallensis (A. otallensis) on the promastigote stage of Leishmaniadonovani (L. donovani) as compared to standard drugs and to screen its phytochemical constituents. Methods: Phytochemical screening was done by using the method mentioned by Evans and Trease on methanolic extract of the exudates of Aloe otallensis leaves. The extract was also evaluated for in vitro antileishmanial activity against L. donavani, which is found in the Parasitology Unit of Black Lion Hospital. The result was compared to standard drugs of sodium stibogluconate, milfostin and paramomycin. Results: The extract has good antileishmanial activity with an IC50 of 0.123 0 μg/mL on L. donovani (AM 563). The experimental data showed that relatively, it had better activity than paramomycin and milfostin but less activity than sodium stibogluconate. The data analyses were done by GraphPad Prism version 5 software after it was read by an ELISA reader at the wavelength of 650 nm. The phytochemical screening of the exudates of A. otallensis showed the presence of phenol, alkaloid and saponin. Conclusions: The methanol extract of the exudates of A.otallensishas a good anti- leishmaniasis activity and this may be attributed to phenol, alkaloid and saponin present in the plant. But it needs further analysis for the conformation of which constituent presents in high concentration to know which one has the strongest effect.

Keywords: anti leshimaniasis, aloe otallensis, leshimania ethiopica, IC50

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4080 Method Optimisation for [¹⁸F]-FDG Rodent Imaging Studies

Authors: J. Visser, C. Driver, T. Ebenhan

Abstract:

[¹⁸F]-FDG (fluorodeoxyglucose) is a radiopharmaceutical compound that is used for non-invasive cancer tumor imaging through positron emission tomography (PET). This radiopharmaceutical is used to visualise the metabolic processes in tumour tissues, which can be applied for the diagnosis and prognosis of various types of cancer. [¹⁸F]-FDG has widespread use in both clinical and pre-clinical research settings. Imaging using [¹⁸F]-FDG results in representative normal tissue distribution as well as visualisation of hypermetabolic lesions ([¹⁸F]-FDG avid foci). The metabolic tissue concentration of these lesions following [¹⁸F]-FDG administration can be quantified using Standard Uptake Values (SUV). Standard uptake values of [¹⁸F]-FDG-based Positron Emission Tomography can be influenced by various biological and technical handling factors. Biological factors that affect [¹⁸F]-FDG uptake include the blood glucose levels of subjects, normal physiological variants between subjects and administration of certain pharmaceutical agents. Technical factors that can have an effect include the route of radiopharmaceutical or pharmaceutical agents administered and environmental conditions such as ambient temperature and lighting. These factors influencing tracer uptake need to be investigated to improve the robustness of the imaging protocol, which will achieve reproducible image acquisition across various research projects, optimised tumor visualisation and increased data validity and reliability.

Keywords: fluorodeoxyglucose, tumour imaging, Rodent, Blood Glucose, PET/CT Imaging

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4079 Assessing the Mechanical Safety, Durability, Strength, and Stability of Wooden Furniture Produced in Ghana

Authors: Haruna Seidu, Francis Wilson Owusu, Michael Mensah, Felix Boakye, James Korang, Safia Ibrahim

Abstract:

Over the years, wooden furniture produced in Ghana had no means of testing their products against standards. It was therefore difficult for such furniture producers to know whether their products conform to international standards. The setting up of the ISO 17025 compliant laboratory has become a reference and accessing point for determining the quality of the furniture they produce. The objective of the study includes the determination of mechanical safety, durability, strength, and stability of wooden furniture produced in Ghana. Twelve wooden furniture manufacturers were randomly selected to design furniture (chairs and tables) for testing. 9 out of the 12 produced chairs, and three provided tables. Standard testing methods were used in this experiment, including GS EN 581-1, GS EN 581-2, and GS EN 581-3. The test results analysis indicates 55.6% of the chairs tested passed all applicable tests. 66.7% of tables tested passed all the applicable tests. The percentage pass and failure of the 12 furniture were 58.3% and 41.7% respectively. In conclusion, chair manufacturers had good designs that withstand the standard testing of strength and durability; most failures occurred largely as a result of poor stability designs adopted for the construction of the chairs and tables. It was observed that the manufacturers did not use the software in designing their furniture.

Keywords: durability, international standards, mechanical safety, wooden furniture design

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4078 Risk Assessment Tools Applied to Deep Vein Thrombosis Patients Treated with Warfarin

Authors: Kylie Mueller, Nijole Bernaitis, Shailendra Anoopkumar-Dukie

Abstract:

Background: Vitamin K antagonists particularly warfarin is the most frequently used oral medication for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) treatment and prophylaxis. Time in therapeutic range (TITR) of the international normalised ratio (INR) is widely accepted as a measure to assess the quality of warfarin therapy. Multiple factors can affect warfarin control and the subsequent adverse outcomes including thromboembolic and bleeding events. Predictor models have been developed to assess potential contributing factors and measure the individual risk of these adverse events. These predictive models have been validated in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, however, there is a lack of literature on whether these can be successfully applied to other warfarin users including DVT patients. Therefore, the aim of the study was to assess the ability of these risk models (HAS BLED and CHADS2) to predict haemorrhagic and ischaemic incidences in DVT patients treated with warfarin. Methods: A retrospective analysis of DVT patients receiving warfarin management by a private pathology clinic was conducted. Data was collected from November 2007 to September 2014 and included demographics, medical and drug history, INR targets and test results. Patients receiving continuous warfarin therapy with an INR reference range between 2.0 and 3.0 were included in the study with mean TITR calculated using the Rosendaal method. Bleeding and thromboembolic events were recorded and reported as incidences per patient. The haemorrhagic risk model HAS BLED and ischaemic risk model CHADS2 were applied to the data. Patients were then stratified into either the low, moderate, or high-risk categories. The analysis was conducted to determine if a correlation existed between risk assessment tool and patient outcomes. Data was analysed using GraphPad Instat Version 3 with a p value of <0.05 considered to be statistically significant. Patient characteristics were reported as mean and standard deviation for continuous data and categorical data reported as number and percentage. Results: Of the 533 patients included in the study, there were 268 (50.2%) female and 265 (49.8%) male patients with a mean age of 62.5 years (±16.4). The overall mean TITR was 78.3% (±12.7) with an overall haemorrhagic incidence of 0.41 events per patient. For the HAS BLED model, there was a haemorrhagic incidence of 0.08, 0.53, and 0.54 per patient in the low, moderate and high-risk categories respectively showing a statistically significant increase in incidence with increasing risk category. The CHADS2 model showed an increase in ischaemic events according to risk category with no ischaemic events in the low category, and an ischaemic incidence of 0.03 in the moderate category and 0.47 high-risk categories. Conclusion: An increasing haemorrhagic incidence correlated to an increase in the HAS BLED risk score in DVT patients treated with warfarin. Furthermore, a greater incidence of ischaemic events occurred in patients with an increase in CHADS2 category. In an Australian population of DVT patients, the HAS BLED and CHADS2 accurately predicts incidences of haemorrhage and ischaemic events respectively.

Keywords: anticoagulant agent, deep vein thrombosis, risk assessment, warfarin

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4077 Development of Generalized Correlation for Liquid Thermal Conductivity of N-Alkane and Olefin

Authors: A. Ishag Mohamed, A. A. Rabah

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to develop a generalized correlation for the prediction of thermal conductivity of n-Alkanes and Alkenes. There is a minority of research and lack of correlation for thermal conductivity of liquids in the open literature. The available experimental data are collected covering the groups of n-Alkanes and Alkenes.The data were assumed to correlate to temperature using Filippov correlation. Nonparametric regression of Grace Algorithm was used to develop the generalized correlation model. A spread sheet program based on Microsoft Excel was used to plot and calculate the value of the coefficients. The results obtained were compared with the data that found in Perry's Chemical Engineering Hand Book. The experimental data correlated to the temperature ranged "between" 273.15 to 673.15 K, with R2 = 0.99.The developed correlation reproduced experimental data that which were not included in regression with absolute average percent deviation (AAPD) of less than 7 %. Thus the spread sheet was quite accurate which produces reliable data.

Keywords: N-Alkanes, N-Alkenes, nonparametric, regression

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4076 Social Economic Factors Associated with the Nutritional Status of Children In Western Uganda

Authors: Baguma Daniel Kajura

Abstract:

The study explores socio-economic factors, health related and individual factors that influence the breastfeeding habits of mothers and their effect on the nutritional status of their infants in the Rwenzori region of Western Uganda. A cross-sectional research design was adopted, and it involved the use of self-administered questionnaires, interview guides, and focused group discussion guides to assess the extent to which socio-demographic factors associated with breastfeeding practices influence child malnutrition. Using this design, data was collected from 276 mother-paired infants out of the selected 318 mother-paired infants over a period of ten days. Using a sample size formula by Kish Leslie for cross-sectional studies N= Zα2 P (1- P) / δ2, where N= sample size estimate of paired mother paired infants. P= assumed true population prevalence of mother–paired infants with malnutrition cases, P = 29.3%. 1-P = the probability of mother-paired infants not having malnutrition, so 1-P = 70.7% Zα = Standard normal deviation at 95% confidence interval corresponding to 1.96.δ = Absolute error between the estimated and true population prevalence of malnutrition of 5%. The calculated sample size N = 1.96 × 1.96 (0.293 × 0.707) /0,052= 318 mother paired infants. Demographic and socio-economic data for all mothers were entered into Microsoft Excel software and then exported to STATA 14 (StataCorp, 2015). Anthropometric measurements were taken for all children by the researcher and the trained assistants who physically weighed the children. The use of immunization card was used to attain the age of the child. The bivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between socio-demographic factors associated with breastfeeding practices and child malnutrition. The multivariable regression analysis was used to draw a conclusion on whether or not there are any true relationships between the socio-demographic factors associated with breastfeeding practices as independent variables and child stunting and underweight as dependent variables in relation to breastfeeding practices. Descriptive statistics on background characteristics of the mothers were generated and presented in frequency distribution tables. Frequencies and means were computed, and the results were presented using tables, then, we determined the distribution of stunting and underweight among infants by the socioeconomic and demographic factors. Findings reveal that children of mothers who used milk substitutes besides breastfeeding are over two times more likely to be stunted compared to those whose mothers exclusively breastfed them. Feeding children with milk substitutes instead of breastmilk predisposes them to both stunting and underweight. Children of mothers between 18 and 34 years of age are less likely to be underweight, as were those who were breastfed over ten times a day. The study further reveals that 55% of the children were underweight, and 49% were stunted. Of the underweight children, an equal number (58/151) were either mildly or moderately underweight (38%), and 23% (35/151) were severely underweight. Empowering community outreach programs by increasing knowledge and increased access to services on integrated management of child malnutrition is crucial to curbing child malnutrition in rural areas.

Keywords: infant and young child feeding, breastfeeding, child malnutrition, maternal health

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4075 Improving Load Frequency Control of Multi-Area Power System by Considering Uncertainty by Using Optimized Type 2 Fuzzy Pid Controller with the Harmony Search Algorithm

Authors: Mehrdad Mahmudizad, Roya Ahmadi Ahangar

Abstract:

This paper presents the method of designing the type 2 fuzzy PID controllers in order to solve the problem of Load Frequency Control (LFC). The Harmony Search (HS) algorithm is used to regulate the measurement factors and the effect of uncertainty of membership functions of Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Proportional Integral Differential (IT2FPID) controllers in order to reduce the frequency deviation resulted from the load oscillations. The simulation results implicitly show that the performance of the proposed IT2FPID LFC in terms of error, settling time and resistance against different load oscillations is more appropriate and preferred than PID and Type 1 Fuzzy Proportional Integral Differential (T1FPID) controllers.

Keywords: load frequency control, fuzzy-pid controller, type 2 fuzzy system, harmony search algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 278
4074 Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Yoruba Language Teaching

Authors: Ayoola Idowu Olasebikan

Abstract:

The global community has become increasingly dependent on various kinds of technologies out of which Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) appear to be the most prominent. ICTs have become multipurpose tools which have had a revolutionary impact on how we see the world and how we live in it. Yoruba is the most widely spoken African language outside Africa but it remains one of the badly spoken language in the world as a result of its outdated teaching method in the African schools which prevented its standard version from being spoken and written. This paper conducts a critical review of the traditional methods of teaching Yoruba language. It then examines the possibility of leveraging on ICTs for improved methods of teaching Yoruba language to achieve global standard and spread. It identified key ICT platforms that can be deployed for the teaching of Yoruba language and the constraints facing each of them. The paper concludes that Information and Communication Technologies appear to provide veritable opportunity for paradigm shift in the methods of teaching Yoruba Language. It also opines that Yoruba language has the potential to transform economic fortune of Africa for sustainable development provided its teaching is taken beyond the brick and mortar classroom to the virtual classroom/global information super highway called internet or any other ICTs medium. It recommends that students and teachers of Yoruba language should be encouraged to acquire basic skills in computer and internet technology in order to enhance their ability to develop and retrieve electronic Yoruba language teaching materials.

Keywords: Africa, ICT, teaching method, Yoruba language

Procedia PDF Downloads 361
4073 Institutional Determinants of Economic Growth in Georgia and in Other Post-Communist Economies

Authors: Nazira Kakulia, Tsotne Zhghenti

Abstract:

The institutional development is one of the actual topics in economics science. New trends and directions of institutional development mostly depend on its structure and framework. Transformation of institutions is an important problem for every economy, especially for developing countries. The first research goal is to determine the importance and interactions between different institutions in Georgia. Using World Governance Indicators and Economic Freedom indexes it can be calculated the size for each institutional group. The second aim of this research is to evaluate Georgian institutional backwardness in comparison to other post-communist economies. We use statistical and econometric methods to evaluate the difference between the levels of institutional development in Georgia and in leading post-communist economies. Within the scope of this research, major findings are coefficients which are an assessment of their deviation (i.e. lag) of institutional indicators between Georgia and leading post-communist country which should be compared. The last part of the article includes analysis around the selected coefficients.

Keywords: post-communist transition, institutions, economic growth, institutional development

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4072 A New Correlation Between SPT-N and SSPT-N values for Various Soil Types in Peninsular Malaysia

Authors: Abdull Halim

Abstract:

The Standard Penetration Test (SPT-N) is the most common in situ test for soil investigations. The Shearing Seismic Standard Penetration Test (SSPT-N), on the other hand, is a new method using shearing wave with propagation exponent equation between the shearing wave, Vs., and hardness, N values without any need for borehole data. Due to the fast and accurate results that can be obtained, the SSPT has found many applications such as in the field rectification buried pipe line, the acid tank settlement and foundation design analyses, and the quality control assessment. Many geotechnical regimes and properties have attempted to correlate both the SSPT and the SPT-N values. Various foundation design methods have been developed based on the outcomes of these tests. Hence, it is pertinent to correlate these tests so that either one of the test can be used in the absence of the other, especially for preliminary evaluation and design purposes. The primary purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between the SSPT-N and SPT-N values for different types of cohesive soil in Peninsular Malaysia. Data were collected from four different sites, and the correlations were established between the hardness N values, principal stress-strain Mohr circle curve, cohesion, friction angle and vertical effective stress. A positive exponent relationship was found between the shearing wave, sVs., and the hardness N values of the soil. In general, the SSPT-N value was slightly lower than the SPT-N value due to the upper limit boundary of the soil layer.

Keywords: InsituSoil determination; shearing wave; hardness; correlation, SSPT-N, SPT-N

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4071 International Financial Reporting Standard Adoption and Value Relevance of Earnings in Listed Consumer Goods Companies in Nigerian

Authors: Muktar Haruna

Abstract:

This research work examines the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) adoption and value relevance of earnings of listed consumer goods companies in the Nigerian. The population of the study comprises 22 listed consumer goods companies, out of which 15 were selected as sample size of the study. The scope of the study is a 12-year period covering from 2006 to 2018. Secondary data from the annual report of sampled companies were used, which consists of earnings per share (EPS), the book value of equity per share (BVE) as independent variables; firm size (FSZ) as a control variable, and market share price of sampled companies from Nigerian stock exchange as dependent variable. Multiple regressions were used to analyze the data. The results of the study showed that IFRS did not improve the value relevance of earnings after the adoption, which translates to a decrease in value relevance of accounting numbers in the post-adoption period. The major recommendation is that the Nigerian Reporting Council should ensure full compliance to all provisions of IFRS and provide uniformity in the presentation of non-current assets in the statement of financial position, where some present only net current assets leaving individual figures for current assets and liabilities invisible.

Keywords: IFRS, adoption, value relevance, earning per share, book value of equity per share

Procedia PDF Downloads 148
4070 Evolving Convolutional Filter Using Genetic Algorithm for Image Classification

Authors: Rujia Chen, Ajit Narayanan

Abstract:

Convolutional neural networks (CNN), as typically applied in deep learning, use layer-wise backpropagation (BP) to construct filters and kernels for feature extraction. Such filters are 2D or 3D groups of weights for constructing feature maps at subsequent layers of the CNN and are shared across the entire input. BP as a gradient descent algorithm has well-known problems of getting stuck at local optima. The use of genetic algorithms (GAs) for evolving weights between layers of standard artificial neural networks (ANNs) is a well-established area of neuroevolution. In particular, the use of crossover techniques when optimizing weights can help to overcome problems of local optima. However, the application of GAs for evolving the weights of filters and kernels in CNNs is not yet an established area of neuroevolution. In this paper, a GA-based filter development algorithm is proposed. The results of the proof-of-concept experiments described in this paper show the proposed GA algorithm can find filter weights through evolutionary techniques rather than BP learning. For some simple classification tasks like geometric shape recognition, the proposed algorithm can achieve 100% accuracy. The results for MNIST classification, while not as good as possible through standard filter learning through BP, show that filter and kernel evolution warrants further investigation as a new subarea of neuroevolution for deep architectures.

Keywords: neuroevolution, convolutional neural network, genetic algorithm, filters, kernels

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
4069 Physiochemical and Antibacterial Assessment of Iranian Propolis Gathering in Qazvin Province

Authors: Nematollah Gheibi, Nader Divan Khosroshahi, Mahdi Mohammadi Ghanbarlou

Abstract:

Introduction: Nowadays, the phenomenon of bacterial resistance is one of the most important challenge of the health community in the world. Propolis is most important production of bee colonies that collected from of various plants. So far, a lot of investigations carried out about its antibacterial effects. Material and methods: Thirty gram of propolis prepared as ethanolic extract and after different process of purification, 7.5 gr of its pure form were obtained. Propolis compounds identification was performed by TLC and VLC methods. The HPLC spectrum obtaining from propolis ethanolic extract was compared with some purified standard phenolic and flavonoid substances. Antibacterial effects of ethanol extract of purified propolis were evaluated on two strains of Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa and their MIC was determined by the microdillution assay. Results: Ethanolic propolis extraction analyzed by TLC were resulted to confirm several phenolic and flavonoid compounds in this extract and some of the confirmed by HPLC technique. Minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) for standard Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC25923) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (ATCC27853) strains were obtained 2.5 mg/ml and 50 mg/ml respectively. Conclusion: Bee Propolis is a mix organic compound that has a lot of beneficial effects such as anti-bacterial that emphasized in this investigation. It is proposed as a rich source of natural phenolic and flavonoids compounds in designing of new biological resources for hygienic and medical applications.

Keywords: propolis, Staphylococcus aureus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, antibacterial

Procedia PDF Downloads 305
4068 Sexual Behaviour and Psychological Well-Being of a Group of African Adolescent Males in Alice, Eastern Cape

Authors: Jabulani Gilford Kheswa, Thembelihle Lobi

Abstract:

From a cultural perspective, expression of hegemonic masculinity in South Africa continues to escalate among adolescent males who grow up in communities lacking in role models and recreational facilities. However, when the schools are constructive, and peer influence is positive, adolescent male can potentially express character strengths and lead a meaningful life. Drawing from Bronfenbrenner’s Ecological Model and Keyes and Ryff’s six dimensions of psychological well-being and mental health, such youth may exemplify positive self-esteem, problem- focused coping strategies, condom self-efficacy, good leadership skills, enhanced motivation and a positive emotional state, which buffer against risky sexual behaviors. This paper was aimed at investigating the relationships between adolescent males’ sexual behavior and psychological well-being. This study employed a quantitative research to collect data from 54 Xhosa-speaking adolescent males from one school high school in Fort Beaufort, Eastern Cape, South Africa. These learners were from grade nine, ten and eleven with their ages ranging from 14 to 20. Prior the research commenced, the school principal and caregivers of the learners who participated in the study, gave their informed consent. Self- administered closed-ended questionnaire with Section A (that is, biographical information) and Section B with each question rated on the 5–point Likert scale was used. The advantages of questionnaires include a high response rate as they require less time and offer anonymity because participants’ names are not identified. The SPSS version 18 was used for statistical data analysis. The mean age was 16.83 with a standard deviation of 1.611. 44.4% of the participants were from grade 9, 33.3% from grade 10 and 22.2% from grade 11. The Chronbach alpha of 0.79 was yielded, with respect to self- esteem of adolescent males. In this study, 76.9% reported to attend church services whilst 23% indicated not to attend church services. A further 96.2% of adolescent males indicated to have good relations with guardians while only 3.8% had poorer relations. A large proportion of adolescent males (72.9%) indicated to high-quality friendship as opposed to 27.1% who reported being receiving negative guidance from peers. Other findings revealed that 81.1% of the participants’ parents do not drink alcohol, and they cope at school as 79.6% reported protective factors as attributable towards non-engagement to risky sexual practices. As a result, 81.4% of participants reported not to participate in criminal activities although 85% of the participants indicated that in their school there are drugs. It could be speculated from this study that adolescent males whose caregivers are authoritative, find purpose in life and are most likely to be socially and academically competent. This paper leads to further research interest into mental health, coping strategies and sexual decision-making skills of the youth in South Africa.

Keywords: church, mental health, school, sexual behaviour

Procedia PDF Downloads 266
4067 Self-Tuning Dead-Beat PD Controller for Pitch Angle Control of a Bench-Top Helicopter

Authors: H. Mansor, S.B. Mohd-Noor, N. I. Othman, N. Tazali, R. I. Boby

Abstract:

This paper presents an improved robust Proportional Derivative controller for a 3-Degree-of-Freedom (3-DOF) bench-top helicopter by using adaptive methodology. Bench-top helicopter is a laboratory scale helicopter used for experimental purposes which is widely used in teaching laboratory and research. Proportional Derivative controller has been developed for a 3-DOF bench-top helicopter by Quanser. Experiments showed that the transient response of designed PD controller has very large steady state error i.e., 50%, which is very serious. The objective of this research is to improve the performance of existing pitch angle control of PD controller on the bench-top helicopter by integration of PD controller with adaptive controller. Usually standard adaptive controller will produce zero steady state error; however response time to reach desired set point is large. Therefore, this paper proposed an adaptive with deadbeat algorithm to overcome the limitations. The output response that is fast, robust and updated online is expected. Performance comparisons have been performed between the proposed self-tuning deadbeat PD controller and standard PD controller. The efficiency of the self-tuning dead beat controller has been proven from the tests results in terms of faster settling time, zero steady state error and capability of the controller to be updated online.

Keywords: adaptive control, deadbeat control, bench-top helicopter, self-tuning control

Procedia PDF Downloads 325
4066 Symptom Burden and Quality of Life in Advanced Lung Cancer Patients

Authors: Ammar Asma, Bouafia Nabiha, Dhahri Meriem, Ben Cheikh Asma, Ezzi Olfa, Chafai Rim, Njah Mansour

Abstract:

Despite recent advances in treatment of the lung cancer patients, the prognosis remains poor. Information is limited regarding health related quality of life (QOL) status of advanced lung cancer patients. The purposes of this study were: to assess patient reported symptom burden, to measure their QOL, and to identify determinant factors associated with QOL. Materials/Methods: A cross sectional study of 60 patients was carried out from over the period of 03 months from February 1st to 30 April 2016. Patients were recruited in two department of health care: Pneumology department in a university hospital in Sousse and an oncology unit in a University Hospital in Kairouan. Patients with advanced stage (III and IV) of lung cancer who were hospitalized or admitted in the day hospital were recruited by convenience sampling. We used a questionnaire administrated and completed by a trained interviewer. This questionnaire is composed of three parts: demographic, clinical and therapeutic information’s, QOL measurements: based on the SF-36 questionnaire, Symptom’s burden measurement using the Lung Cancer Symptom Scale (LCSS). To assess Correlation between symptoms burden and QOL, we compared the scores of two scales two by two using the Pearson correlation. To identify factors influencing QOL in Lung cancer, a univariate statistical analysis then, a stepwise backward approach, wherein the variables with p< 0.2, were carried out to determine the association between SF-36 scores and different variables. Results: During the study period, 60 patients consented to complete symptom and quality of life questionnaires at a single point time (72% were recruited from day hospital). The majority of patients were male (88%), age ranged from 21 to 79 years with a mean of 60.5 years. Among patients, 48 (80%) were diagnosed as having non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC). Approximately, 60 % (n=36) of patients were in stage IV, 25 % in stage IIIa and 15 % in stage IIIb. For symptom burden, the symptom burden index was 43.07 (Standard Deviation, 21.45). Loss of appetite and fatigue were rated as the most severe symptoms with mean scores (SD): 49.6 (25.7) and 58.2 (15.5). The average overall score of SF36 was 39.3 (SD, 15.4). The physical and emotional limitations had the lowest scores. Univariate analysis showed that factors which influence negatively QOL were: married status (p<0.03), smoking cessation after diagnosis (p<0.024), LCSS total score (p<0.001), LCSS symptom burden index (p<0.001), fatigue (p<0.001), loss of appetite (p<0.001), dyspnea (p<0.001), pain (p<0.002), and metastatic stage (p<0.01). In multivariate analysis, unemployment (p<0.014), smoking cessation after diagnosis (p<0.013), consumption of analgesic (p<0.002) and the indication of an analgesic radiotherapy (p<0.001) are revealed as independent determinants of QOL. The result of the correlation analyses between total LCSS scores and the total and individual domain SF36 scores was significant (p<0.001); the higher total LCSS score is, the poorer QOL is. Conclusion: A built in support of lung cancer patients would better control the symptoms and promote the QOL of these patients.

Keywords: quality of life, lung cancer, metastasis, symptoms burden

Procedia PDF Downloads 381
4065 Physico-Chemical and Antibacterial Properties of Neem Extracts

Authors: C. C. Igwe

Abstract:

Several parts of Neem tree (Azadirachta indica) are used in traditional medicine in many West African countries for the treatment of various human diseases. The leaf, stem - bark and seed were air dried for 8, 5 and 7 days, respectively. The shells were carfully separated from the seeds, each powdered sample obtained with mechanical miller and 250 mm sieve. The neem samples were individually subjected to extraction with acetone, n-hexane for 48hr and 72 hr, respectively. Physico-chemical and antibacterial evaluation were carried out using standard methods. Results of physico - chemical analyses of the extracted oil from the seed shows that it has a brownish colour, with a smell similar to garlic while the moisture content, refractive index are 0.76% and 1.47 respectively. Other vital chemical results obtained from the neem oil such as saponification value (234.62), acid value (10.84 %), free fatty acid (5.84 %) and peroxide value (10.52%) indicated the oil extracted satisfied standard oils parameters for quality soap and cosmetics production. The antibacterial screening by disc diffusion revealed the oil demonstrated high activity against Staphylococcus aureus. Both the physio-chemical and antibacterial of samples have been certified by National Agency for Food and Drugs Administration and Control. The preliminary results of this study may validate the medicinal value of the plant. Further studies are in progress to clarify the in vivo potentials of neem extracts in the management of human communicable diseases and this is a subject of investigation in our group.

Keywords: anti-bacterial, neem extract, physico-chemical analyses, staphylococcus aureus

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4064 Theoretical and ML-Driven Identification of a Mispriced Credit Risk

Authors: Yuri Katz, Kun Liu, Arunram Atmacharan

Abstract:

Due to illiquidity, mispricing on Credit Markets is inevitable. This creates huge challenges to banks and investors as they seek to find new ways of risk valuation and portfolio management in a post-credit crisis world. Here, we analyze the difference in behavior of the spread-to-maturity in investment and high-yield categories of US corporate bonds between 2014 and 2023. Deviation from the theoretical dependency of this measure in the universe under study allows to identify multiple cases of mispriced credit risk. Remarkably, we observe mispriced bonds in both categories of credit ratings. This identification is supported by the application of the state-of-the-art machine learning model in more than 90% of cases. Noticeably, the ML-driven model-based forecasting of a category of bond’s credit ratings demonstrate an excellent out-of-sample accuracy (AUC = 98%). We believe that these results can augment conventional valuations of credit portfolios.

Keywords: credit risk, credit ratings, bond pricing, spread-to-maturity, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 80