Search results for: propagation of uncertainty

Authors: A. E. Buyken, D. J. Mela, P. Dussort, I. T. Johnson, I. A. Macdonald, A. Piekarz, J. D. Stowell, F. Brouns

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Recently a number of renewed dietary guidelines have been published by various health authorities. The aim of the present work was 1) to review the processes (systematic approach/review, inclusion of public consultation) and methodological approaches used to identify and select the underpinning evidence base for the established recommendations for total carbohydrate (CHO), fiber and sugar consumption, and 2) examine how differences in the methods and processes applied may have influenced the final recommendations. A search of WHO, US, Canada, Australia and European sources identified 13 authoritative dietary guidelines with the desired detailed information. Each of these guidelines was evaluated for its scientific basis (types and grading of the evidence) and the processes by which the guidelines were developed Based on the data retrieved the following conclusions can be drawn: 1) Generally, a relatively high total CHO and fiber intake and limited intake of sugars (added or free) is recommended. 2) Even where recommendations are quite similar, the specific, justifications for quantitative/qualitative recommendations differ across authorities. 3) Differences appear to be due to inconsistencies in underlying definitions of CHO exposure and in the concurrent appraisal of CHO-providing foods and nutrients as well the choice and number of health outcomes selected for the evidence appraisal. 4) Differences in the selected articles, time frames or data aggregation method appeared to be of rather minor influence. From this assessment, the main recommendations are for: 1) more explicit quantitative justifications for numerical guidelines and communication of uncertainty; and 2) greater international harmonization, particularly with regard to underlying definitions of exposures and range of relevant nutrition-related outcomes.

Keywords: carbohydrates, dietary fibres, dietary guidelines, recommendations, sugars

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Authors: Syed Asif Hassan, Syed Atif Hassan

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Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is an infection caused by the resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis that do not respond either to isoniazid or rifampicin, which are the most important anti-TB drugs. The increase in the occurrence of a drug-resistance strain of MTB calls for an intensive search of novel target-based therapeutics. In this context LprG (Rv1411c) a lipoprotein from MTB plays a pivotal role in the immune evasion of Mtb leading to survival and propagation of the bacterium within the host cell. Therefore, a machine learning method will be developed for generating a computational model that could predict for a potential anti LprG activity of the novel antituberculosis compound. The present study will utilize dataset from PubChem database maintained by National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). The dataset involves compounds screened against MTB were categorized as active and inactive based upon PubChem activity score. PowerMV, a molecular descriptor generator, and visualization tool will be used to generate the 2D molecular descriptors for the actives and inactive compounds present in the dataset. The 2D molecular descriptors generated from PowerMV will be used as features. We feed these features into three different classifiers, namely, random forest, a deep neural network, and a recurring neural network, to build separate predictive models and choosing the best performing model based on the accuracy of predicting novel antituberculosis compound with an anti LprG activity. Additionally, the efficacy of predicted active compounds will be screened using SMARTS filter to choose molecule with drug-like features.

Keywords: antituberculosis drug, classifier, machine learning, molecular descriptors, prediction

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Authors: Nidhi Jindal, Ashok Chaudhury, Manisha Mangal

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Andrographis paniculata, (Burm f.) Wallich ex. Nees (Family Acanthaceae) popularly known as King of Bitters, is an important medicinal herb. It has an astonishingly wide range of medicinal properties such as anti-inflammatory,antidiarrhoeal, antiviral, antimalarial, hepatoprotective, cardiovascular, anticancer, and immunostimulatory activities. It is widely cultivated in southern Asia. Though propagation of this herb generally occurs through seeds, it has many germination problems which intrigued scientists to work out on the alternative techniques for its mass production. The potential of tissue culture techniques as an alternative tool for AP multiplication was found to be promising. However, the high mortality rate of explants caused by phenolic browning of explants is one of the difficulties reported. Low multiplication rates were reported in the proliferation phase, as well as cultures decline characterized by leaf fall and loss of overall vigor. In view of above problems, a study was undertaken to overcome seed dormancy to improve germination potential and to investigate further on the possible means for successful proliferation of cultures via preventive approaches to overcome failures caused by phenolic browning. Experiments were conducted to improve germination potential and among all the chemical and mechanical trials, scarification of seeds with sand paper proved to be the best method to enhance the germination potential (82.44%) within 7 days. Similarly, several pretreatments and media combinations were tried to overcome browning of explants leading to the conclusion that addition of 0.1% citric acid and 0.2% of ascorbic acid in the media followed by rapid sub culturing of explants controlled browning and decline of explants by 67.45%.

Keywords: plant tissue culture, empirical measure, germination, tissue culture

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Authors: Rafael Muñoz, Juan Melchor, Alicia Valera, Laura Peralta, Guillermo Rus

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A torsional piezoelectric ultrasonic transducer design is proposed to measure shear moduli in soft tissue with direct access availability, using shear wave elastography technique. The measurement of shear moduli of tissues is a challenging problem, mainly derived from a) the difficulty of isolating a pure shear wave, given the interference of multiple waves of different types (P, S, even guided) emitted by the transducers and reflected in geometric boundaries, and b) the highly attenuating nature of soft tissular materials. An immediate application, overcoming these drawbacks, is the measurement of changes in cervix stiffness to estimate the gestational age at delivery. The design has been optimized using a finite element model (FEM) and a semi-analytical estimator of the probability of detection (POD) to determine a suitable geometry, materials and generated waves. The technique is based on the time of flight measurement between emitter and receiver, to infer shear wave velocity. Current research is centered in prototype testing and validation. The geometric optimization of the transducer was able to annihilate the compressional wave emission, generating a quite pure shear torsional wave. Currently, mechanical and electromagnetic coupling between emitter and receiver signals are being the research focus. Conclusions: the design overcomes the main described problems. The almost pure shear torsional wave along with the short time of flight avoids the possibility of multiple wave interference. This short propagation distance reduce the effect of attenuation, and allow the emission of very low energies assuring a good biological security for human use.

Keywords: cervix ripening, preterm birth, shear modulus, shear wave elastography, soft tissue, torsional wave

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Authors: Wantana Amatariyakul, Chumnong Amatariyakul

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The research aims to examine the spread of drugs in higher education, especially amphetamine which is rapidly increasing in Thai society, its causes and effects, including the sociological perspective, in order to explain, prevent, control, and solve the problems. The students who participated in this research are regular students of Rajamangala University of Technology Isan, Khon Kaen Campus. The data were collected using questionnaires, group discussions, and in-depth interviews. The quantity data were analyzed using frequency, percentage, mean and standard deviation and using content analysis to analyzed quality data. The result of the study showed that the students had the results of examination on level of knowledge and understanding on drug abuse projected that the majority of sample group attained their knowledge on drug abuse respectively. Despite their uncertainty, the majority of samples presumed that amphetamine, marijuana and grathom (Mitragyna Speciosa Korth) would most likely be abused. The reason for first drug abuse is because they want to try and their friends convince them, as well as, they want to relax or solve the problems in life, respectively. The bad effects appearing to the drug addicts shows that their health deteriorates or worsens, as well as, they not only lose their money but also face with worse mental states. The reasons that respondents tried to avoid using drugs or refused drugs offered by friends were: not wanting to disappoint or upset their family members, fear of rejection by family members, afraid of being arrested by the police, afraid of losing their educational opportunity and ruining their future respectively. Students therefore defended themselves against drug addiction by refusing to try all drugs. Besides this, the knowledge about the danger and the harm of drugs persuaded them to stay away from drugs.

Keywords: drugs, higher education, drug addiction, spread of drugs

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Authors: Carol Leroy

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This presentation focuses on the analysis qualitative case studies in the graduate education of reading specialists. The presentation describes the development and application of an integrated conceptual framework for reading specialist education, drawing on Robert Stake’s work on case study research, Kenneth Zeichner’s work on professional learning, and various tools for reading assessment (e.g. the Qualitative Reading Inventory). Social constructivist theory is used to provide intersecting links between the various influences on the processes used to assess and teaching reading within the case study framework. Illustrative examples are described to show the application of the framework in reading specialist education in a teaching clinic at a large urban university. Central to education of reading specialists in this teaching clinic is the collection, analysis and interpretation of data for the design and implementation of reading and writing programs for struggling readers and writers. The case study process involves the integrated interpretation of data, which is central to qualitative case study inquiry. An emerging theme in this approach to graduate education is the ambiguity and uncertainty that governs work with the adults and children who attend the clinic for assistance. Tensions and contradictions are explored insofar as they reveal overlapping but intersecting frameworks for case study analysis in the area of literacy education. An additional theme is the interplay of multiple layers of data with a resulting depth that goes beyond the practical need of the client and toward the deeper pedagogical growth of the reading specialist. The presentation makes a case for the value of qualitative case studies in reading specialist education. Further, the use of social constructivism as a unifying paradigm provides a robustness to the conceptual framework as a tool for understanding the pedagogy that is involved.

Keywords: assessment, case study, professional education, reading

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Authors: Ejazulhaq Rahimi

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The development of techniques evaluating deterioration on concrete structures is vital for structural health monitoring (SHM). One of the main reasons for reinforced concrete structure's deterioration is the corroding of embedded rebars. It is a natural process that begins when the rebar starts to rust. It occurs when the protective layer on the rebar is destroyed. The rebar in concrete is usually protected against corrosion by the high pH of the surrounding cement paste. However, there are chemicals that can destroy the protective layer, making it susceptible to corrosion. It is very destructive for the lifespan and durability of the concrete structure. Corrosion products which are 3 to 6 times voluminous than the rebar stress its surrounding concrete and lead to fracture as cracks even peeling off the cover concrete over the rebar. As is clear that concrete shows limit elastic behavior in its stress strain property, so corrosion product stresses can be detected as strains from the concrete surface. It means that surface strains have a relation with the situation and amount of corrosion products and related concrete fractures inside reinforced concrete. In this paper, a comparative study of surface strains due to corrosion products detected by strain gauges and acoustic emission (AE) testing under periodic accelerated corrosion in the salty environment with 3% NaCl is reported. From the results, three different stages of strains were clearly observed based on the type and rate of strains in each corrosion situation and related fracture types. AE parameters which mostly are related to fracture and their shapes, describe the same phases. It is confirmed that there is a great agreement to the result of each other and describes three phases as generation and expansion of corrosion products and initiation and propagation of corrosion-induced cracks, and surface cracks. In addition, the strain on the concrete surface was rapidly increased before the cracks arrived at the surface of the concrete.

Keywords: acoustic emission, monitoring, rebar corrosion, reinforced concrete, strain

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Authors: Naila Nasreen, Dianchen Lu

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This paper explores the dynamical behavior of the (2+1)-dimensional Boussinesq equation, which is a nonlinear water wave equation and is used to model wave packets in dispersive media with weak nonlinearity. This equation depicts how long wave made in shallow water propagates due to the influence of gravity. The (2+1)- dimensional Boussinesq equation combines the two-way propagation of the classical Boussinesq equation with the dependence on a second spatial variable, as that occurs in the two-dimensional Kadomstev- Petviashvili equation. This equation provides a description of head- on collision of oblique waves and it possesses some interesting properties. The governing model is discussed by the assistance of Ricatti equation mapping method, a relatively integration tool. The solutions have been extracted in different forms the solitary wave solutions as well as hyperbolic and periodic solutions. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is demonstrated for the designed dynamical structural system’s wave profiles, where the soliton wave velocity and wave number parameters regulate the water wave singularity. In addition to being helpful for elucidating nonlinear partial differential equations, the method in use gives previously extracted solutions and extracts fresh exact solutions. Assuming the right values for the parameters, various graph in different shapes are sketched to provide information about the visual format of the earned results. This paper’s findings support the efficacy of the approach taken in enhancing nonlinear dynamical behavior. We believe this research will be of interest to a wide variety of engineers that work with engineering models. Findings show the effectiveness simplicity, and generalizability of the chosen computational approach, even when applied to complicated systems in a variety of fields, especially in ocean engineering.

Keywords: (2+1)-dimensional Boussinesq equation, solitary wave solutions, Ricatti equation mapping approach, nonlinear phenomena

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Authors: S. Łęgowik-Świącik

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This article is a contribution to the research into the determinants of value creation via digital platforms in variable operating conditions. The dynamics of the market environment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have made enterprises built on digital platforms financially successful. While many classic companies are struggling with the uncertainty of conducting a business and difficulties in the process of value creation, digital platforms create value by modifying the existing business model to meet the changing needs of customers. Therefore, the objective of this publication is to understand and explain the relationship between value creation and the conversion of the business model built on digital platforms under pandemic conditions. The considerations relating to the conceptual framework and determining the research objective allowed for adopting the hypothesis, assuming that the processes of value creation are evolving, and the measurement of these processes allows for the protection of value created and enables its growth in changing circumstances. The research methods, such as critical literature analysis and case study, were applied to accomplish the objective pursued and verify the hypothesis formulated. The empirical research was carried out based on the data from enterprises listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange: Amazon, Alibaba, and Facebook. The research period was the years 2018-2021. The surveyed enterprises were chosen based on the targeted selection. The problem discussed is important and current since the lack of in-depth theoretical research results in few attempts to identify the determinants of value creation via digital platforms. The above arguments led to an attempt at theoretical analysis and empirical research to fill in the gap perceived by deepening the understanding of the process of value creation through network effects via digital platforms under pandemic conditions.

Keywords: business model, digital platforms, enterprise management, pandemic conditions, value creation process

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Authors: Gregory Michael McMahon

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Risk management for the purposes of minimizing the damages from the operations of dams has met with opposition emerging from organisations and authorities, and their practitioners. It appears that the cause may be a misunderstanding of risk management arising from exchanges that mix deterministic thinking with risk-centric thinking and that do not separate uncertainty from reliability and accuracy from probability. This paper sets out those misunderstandings that arose from dam operations at Wivenhoe in 2011, using a comparison of outcomes that have been based on the methodology and its rules and those that have been operated by applying misunderstandings of the rules. The paper addresses the performance of one risk-centric Flood Manual for Wivenhoe Dam in achieving a risk management outcome. A mixture of engineering, administrative, and legal factors appear to have combined to reduce the outcomes from the risk approach. These are described. The findings are that a risk-centric Manual may need to assist administrations in the conduct of scenario training regimes, in responding to healthy audit reporting, and in the development of decision-support systems. The principal assistance needed from the Manual, however, is to assist engineering and the law to a good understanding of how risks are managed – do not assume that risk management is understood. The wider findings are that the critical profession for decision-making downstream of the meteorologist is not dam engineering or hydrology, or hydraulics; it is risk management. Risk management will provide the minimum flood damage outcome where actual rainfalls match or exceed forecasts of rainfalls, that therefore risk management will provide the best approach for the likely history of flooding in the life of a dam, and provisions made for worst cases may be state of the art in risk management. The principal conclusion is the need for training in both risk management as a discipline and also in the application of risk management rules to particular dam operational scenarios.

Keywords: risk management, flood control, dam operations, deterministic thinking

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Authors: B. Ashraf, A. M. Malik

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The study was accomplished at the Department of Economics and Agriculture Economics, Pir Mahar Ali Shah ARID Agriculture University, Punjab, Pakistan during 2013-16 with a purpose to discover the effect of Islamic finance/banking on employment in Punjab, Pakistan. Islamic banking system is sub-component of conventional banking system in various countries of the world; however, in Pakistan, it has been established as a separate Islamic banking system. The Islamic banking operates under the doctrine of Shariah. It is claimed that the referred banking is free of interest (Riba) and addresses the philosophy and basic values of Islam in finance that reduces the factors of uncertainty, risk and others speculative activities. Two Islamic bank’s; Meezan Bank Limited (Pakistan) and Al-Baraka Bank Limited (Pakistan) from North Punjab (Bahawalnagar) and central Punjab (Lahore) west Punjab (Gujrat), Pakistan were randomly selected for the conduct of research. A total of 206 samples were collected from the define areas and banks through questionnaire. The data was analyzed by using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 21.0. Multiple linear regressions were applied to prove the hypothesis. The results revealed that the assets formation had significant positive; whereas, the technology, length of business (experience) and bossiness size had significant negative impact with employment generation in Islamic finance/banking in Punjab, Pakistan. This concludes that the employment opportunities may be created in the country by extending the finance to business/firms to start new business and increase the Public awareness by the Islamic banks through intensive publicity. However; Islamic financial institutions may be encouraged by Government as it enhances the employment in the country.

Keywords: assets formation, borrowers, employment generation, Islamic banks, Islamic finance

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Authors: Zeinab Gharibi, B. Stoevesandt, J. Peinke

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Long term surface erosion of wind turbine blades, especially at the leading edge, impairs aerodynamic performance; therefore, lowers efficiency of the blades mostly in the high-speed rotor tip regions. Blade protection provides significant improvements in annual energy production, reduces costly downtime, and protects the integrity of the blades. However, this protection still influences the aerodynamic behavior, and broadband noise caused by interaction between the impinging turbulence and blade’s leading edge. This paper presents an extensive numerical aeroacoustics approach by investigating the sound power spectra of the eroded and coated NACA 64-618 wind turbine airfoil and evaluates aeroacoustics improvements after the protection procedure. Using computational fluid dynamics (CFD), different quasi 2D numerical grids were implemented and special attention was paid to the refinement of the boundary layers. The noise sources were captured and decoupled with acoustic propagation via the derived formulation of Curle’s analogy implemented in OpenFOAM. Therefore, the noise spectra were compared for clean, coated and eroded profiles in the range of chord-based Reynolds number (1.6e6 ≤ Re ≤ 11.5e6). Angle of attack was zero in all cases. Verifications were conducted for the clean profile using available experimental data. Sensitivity studies for the far-field were done on different observational positions. Furthermore, beamforming studies were done simulating an Archimedean spiral microphone array for far-field noise directivity patterns. Comparing the noise spectra of the coated and eroded geometries, results show that, coating clearly improves aerodynamic and acoustic performance of the eroded airfoil.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, computational aeroacoustics, leading edge, OpenFOAM

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Authors: Hasan Izhar Khan, Naiqiang Zhang, Hong Xu, Zhongliang Zhu, Dongfang Jiang

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Inconel 625 is a nickel-based alloy having outstanding corrosion resistance and developed for use at service temperatures ranging from cryogenic to 980°C. It got a wide range of applications in nuclear, petrochemical, chemical, marine, aeronautical, and aerospace industries. Currently, it is one of the candidate materials to be used as a structural material in ultra-supercritical (USC) power plants. In the high-temperature corrosive medium environment, metallic materials are susceptible to corrosion fatigue (CF). CF is an interaction between cyclic stress and corrosive medium environment that acts on a susceptible material and results in initiation and propagation of cracks. For the application of Inconel 625 as a structural material in USC power plants, CF behavior must be evaluated in steam and supercritical water (SCW) environment. Fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR) curves obtained from CF experiments are required to predict residual life of metallic materials used in power plants. In this study, FCGR tests of Inconel 625 were obtained by using compact tension specimen at 550-650 °C in steam (8 MPa) and SCW (25 MPa). The dissolved oxygen level was kept constant at 8000 ppb for the test conducted in steam and SCW. The tests were performed under sine wave loading waveform, 1 Hz loading frequency, stress ratio of 0.6 and maximum stress intensity factor of 32 MPa√m. Crack growth rate (CGR) was detected by using direct current potential drop technique. Results showed that CGR increased with an increase in temperature in the tested environmental conditions. The mechanism concerning the influence of temperature on FCGR are further discussed.

Keywords: corrosion fatigue, crack growth rate, nickel-based alloy, temperature

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Authors: Martins Y. Otache, John J. Musa, Abayomi I. Kuti, Mustapha Mohammed

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The performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) is contingent on a host of factors, for instance, the network optimisation scheme. In view of this, the study examined the general implications of the ANN training optimisation algorithm on its forecast performance. To this end, the Bayesian regularisation (Br), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), and the adaptive learning gradient descent: GDM (with momentum) algorithms were employed under different ANN structural configurations: (1) single-hidden layer, and (2) double-hidden layer feedforward back propagation network. Results obtained revealed generally that the gradient descent with momentum (GDM) optimisation algorithm, with its adaptive learning capability, used a relatively shorter time in both training and validation phases as compared to the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian Regularisation (Br) algorithms though learning may not be consummated; i.e., in all instances considering also the prediction of extreme flow conditions for 1-day and 5-day ahead, respectively especially using the ANN model. In specific statistical terms on the average, model performance efficiency using the coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistic were Br: 98%, 94%; LM: 98 %, 95 %, and GDM: 96 %, 96% respectively for training and validation phases. However, on the basis of relative error distribution statistics (MAE, MAPE, and MSRE), GDM performed better than the others overall. Based on the findings, it is imperative to state that the adoption of ANN for real-time forecasting should employ training algorithms that do not have computational overhead like the case of LM that requires the computation of the Hessian matrix, protracted time, and sensitivity to initial conditions; to this end, Br and other forms of the gradient descent with momentum should be adopted considering overall time expenditure and quality of the forecast as well as mitigation of network overfitting. On the whole, it is recommended that evaluation should consider implications of (i) data quality and quantity and (ii) transfer functions on the overall network forecast performance.

Keywords: streamflow, neural network, optimisation, algorithm

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Authors: Majid Alsubaie, Hamed Sarbazhosseini

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Many working environments have experienced increased uncertainty due to the fast-moving and unpredictable world. IT systems development projects, in particular, face several challenges because of their rapidly changing environments and emerging technologies. Information technology organizations within these contexts adapt systems development methodology and new software approaches to address this issue. One of these methodologies is the Agile method, which has gained huge attention in recent years. However, due to failure rates in IT projects, there is an increasing demand for the use of hybrid Agile methods among organizations. The scarce research in the area means that organizations do not have solid evidence-based knowledge for the use of hybrid Agile. This research was designed to provide further insights into the development of hybrid Agile methods within systems development projects, including how frameworks and processes are used and what benefits and challenges are gained and faced as a result of hybrid Agile methods. This paper presents how three organizations (two government and one private) use hybrid Agile methods in their Agile environments. The data was collected through interviews and a review of relevant documents. The results indicate that these organizations do not predominantly use pure Agile. Instead, they are waterfall organizations by virtue of systems nature and complexity, and Agile is used underneath as the delivery model. Prince2 Agile framework, SAFe, Scrum, and Kanban were the identified models and frameworks followed. This study also found that customer satisfaction and the ability to build quickly are the most frequently perceived benefits of using hybrid Agile methods. In addition, team resistance and scope changes are the common challenges identified by research participants in their working environments. The findings can help to understand Agile environmental conditions and projects that can help get better success rates and customer satisfaction.

Keywords: agile, hybrid, IT systems, management, success rate, technology

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Authors: Mara Gabrielli, Jordi Pamies Rovira

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From a theoretical and interdisciplinary approach to visual ethnography and visual anthropology, this small scale, in-depth study explores the potential of photography as a participatory ethnographic method for a deep-understanding of the socio-educational integration of young refugees and asylum-seekers in the host society as regards their daily experiences, their needs, desires, expectations, and future goals. Qualitative data is collected by the author by observing 12 young participants in the age group 12-24 years per week for 12 months. The data consists of field notes, participatory observation, in-depth interviews with professionals, and the use of visual participatory ethnographic methods. Therefore, the young participants build their stories through the implementation of two participatory photographic methods - the 'photo-diary' and the 'photo-elicitation' - that permit them to analyse and narrate their social and educational experiences from their perspectives, thus collaborating in the construction of knowledge during the different stages of the research. Preliminary findings show the high resilience and social adaptability of young refugees and asylum-seekers to achieve their goals and overcome structural and socio-cultural barriers. However, the uncertainty of their administrative situation during the asylum submission and the lack of specific resources might impact negatively on their educational pathways and the transition to the labour market. Finally, this study also highlights the benefits of participatory photographic methods in ethnographic research, which impacts positively the well-being of these young people, helps them to develop critical thinking, and it also allows them to access information more respectfully when narrating painful experiences.

Keywords: photo-diary, photo-elicitation, resilience, strategies, visual methodologies, young refugees and asylum seekers

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Authors: Maryam Pirdehghan

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During the Ba'ath Party's rule in Iraq, propaganda was utilized to justify and to promote Saddam Hussein's image in the collective memory as the greatest Arab leader. Consequently, urban walls were routinely covered with images of Saddam. Relying on these images, the regime aimed to provide a basis for evoking meanings in the public opinion, which would supposedly strengthen Saddam’s power and reconstruct facts to legitimize his political ideology. Nonetheless, Saddam was not always portrayed with common and explicit elements but in certain periods of his rule, the paintings depicted him in an unusual context, where various historical and contemporary elements were combined in a narrative background. Therefore, an understanding of the implied socio-political references of these elements is required to fully elucidate the impact of these images on forming the memory and collective unconscious of the Iraqi people. To obtain such understanding, one needs to address the following questions: a) How Saddam Hussein is portrayed in mural during his rule? b) What of elements and mythical-historical narratives are found in the paintings? c) Which Saddam's political views were subject to the collective memory through mural? Employing visual semiotics, this study reveals that during Saddam Hussein's regime, the paintings were initially simple portraits but gradually transformed into narrative images, characterized by a complex network of historical, mythical and religious elements. These elements demonstrate the transformation of a secular-nationalist politician into a Muslim ruler who tried to instill three major policies in domestic and international relations i.e. the arabization of Iraq, as well as the propagation of pan-arabism ideology (first period), the implementation of anti-Israel policy (second period) and the implementation of anti-American-British policy (last period).

Keywords: Ba'ath Party, Saddam Hussein, mural, Iraq, propaganda, collective memory

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Authors: Mohammad Zafar-ul Islam, Shaily Menon, Xingong Li, A. Townsend Peterson

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In addition to the mounting empirical data on direct implications of climate change for natural and human systems, evidence is increasing for other, indirect climate change phenomena such as sea-level rise. Rising sea levels and associated marine intrusion into terrestrial environments are predicted to be among the most serious eventual consequences of climate change. The many complex and interacting factors affecting sea levels create considerable uncertainty in sea-level rise projections: conservative estimates are on the order of 0.5-1.0 m globally, while other estimates are much higher, approaching 6 m. Marine intrusion associated with 1– 6 m sea-level rise will impact species and habitats in coastal ecosystems severely. Examining areas most vulnerable to such impacts may allow design of appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We present an overview of potential effects of 1 and 6 m sea level rise for coastal conservation areas in the Indian Subcontinent. In particular, we examine the projected magnitude of areal losses in relevant biogeographic zones, ecoregions, protected areas (PAs), and Important Bird Areas (IBAs). In addition, we provide a more detailed and quantitative analysis of likely effects of marine intrusion on 22 coastal PAs and IBAs that provide critical habitat for birds in the form of breeding areas, migratory stopover sites, and overwintering habitats. Several coastal PAs and IBAs are predicted to experience higher than 50% losses to marine intrusion. We explore consequences of such inundation levels on species and habitat in these areas.

Keywords: sea-level change, coastal inundation, marine intrusion, biogeographic zones, ecoregions, protected areas, important bird areas, adaptation, mitigation

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Authors: Donald G. Danmeier, Gian Marco Pizzo, Matthew Brennan

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Although wetlands have been proposed as a green alternative to manage coastal flood hazards because of their capacity to adapt to sea level rise and provision of multiple ecological and social co-benefits, they are often overlooked due to challenges in quantifying the uncertainty and naturally, variability of these systems. This objective of this study was to quantify wave attenuation provided by a natural marsh surrounding a large oil refinery along the US Gulf Coast that has experienced steady erosion along the shoreward edge. The vegetation module of the SWAN was activated and coupled with a hydrodynamic model (DELFT3D) to capture two-way interactions between the changing water level and wavefield over the course of a storm event. Since the marsh response to relative sea level rise is difficult to predict, a range of future marsh morphologies is explored. Numerical results were examined to determine the amount of wave attenuation as a function of marsh extent and the relative contributions from white-capping, depth-limited wave breaking, bottom friction, and flexing of vegetation. In addition to the coupled DELFT3D-SWAN modeling of a storm event, an uncoupled SWAN-VEG model was applied to a simplified bathymetry to explore a larger experimental design space. The wave modeling revealed that the rate of wave attenuation reduces for higher surge but was still significant over a wide range of water levels and outboard wave heights. The results also provide insights to the minimum marsh extent required to fully realize the potential wave attenuation so the changing coastal hazards can be managed.

Keywords: green infrastructure, wave attenuation, wave modeling, wetland

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Authors: Sang-Ju Yu

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This paper examines the changing essences and effects of ‘affective atmosphere’ during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, which have been facilitated and shaped the ‘affective governance’ in Taiwan. Due to long-term uncertainty and unpredictability, the COVID-19 pandemic not only caused unprecedented global crisis but triggered the public’s negative emotional responses. This paper unravels how the shortage of Personal Protective Equipment and the proliferating fake news heightened people’s fear and anxiety and how specific affective atmospheres can be provoked and manipulated to harness emotional appeals of citizens strategically in Taiwan. Through the in-depth interviews with diverse stakeholders involved, it unfolds the dynamics and strategies of affective governance, wherein public emotions and concerns are now given significant consideration in both policy measures and the affective expression of leadership, spatial arrangement, service delivery, and the interaction with citizens. Addressing psychosocial and emotional needs has become the core of crisis response mechanisms suited to dynamic affective atmospheres and pandemic situation. This paper also demonstrates that epidemic prevention and control is not merely the production of neutral or rational policy-making processes, as it is dominated by multiple emotions resulted from unexpected and salient events at different moments. It provides explicit insight into how different prevention scenarios operated effectively through political and affective mobilisation to strengthen emotional bonding and collective identity which energises collective action. Basically, successful affective governance calls for both negative and positive emotions, for both scientific and political decision-making, for both community and bureaucracy, and both quality and efficiency of private–public collaboration.

Keywords: affective atmospheres, affective governance, COVID-19 pandemic, private-public collaboration

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Authors: Mahzabin Afroz, Indubhushan Patnaikuni, Srikanth Venkatesan

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It is well-known that fly ash can be used in high volume as a partial replacement of cement to get beneficial effects on concrete. High volume fly ash (HVFA) concrete is currently emerging as a popular option to strengthen by fiber. Although studies have supported the use of fibers with fly ash, a unified model along with the incorporation into finite element software package to estimate the maximum flexural loads need to be developed. In this study, nonlinear finite element analysis of steel fiber reinforced high strength HVFA concrete beam under static loadings was conducted to investigate their failure modes in terms of ultimate load. First of all, the experimental investigation of mechanical properties of high strength HVFA concrete was done and validates with developed numerical model with the appropriate modeling of element size and mesh by ANSYS 16.2. To model the fiber within the concrete, three-dimensional random fiber distribution was simulated by spherical coordinate system. Three types of high strength HVFA concrete beams were analyzed reinforced with 0.5, 1 and 1.5% volume fractions of steel fibers with specific mechanical and physical properties. The result reveals that the use of nonlinear finite element analysis technique and three-dimensional random fiber orientation exhibited fairly good agreement with the experimental results of flexural strength, load deflection and crack propagation mechanism. By utilizing this improved model, it is possible to determine the flexural behavior of different types and proportions of steel fiber reinforced HVFA concrete beam under static load. So, this paper has the originality to predict the flexural properties of steel fiber reinforced high strength HVFA concrete by numerical simulations.

Keywords: finite element analysis, high volume fly ash, steel fibers, spherical coordinate system

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Authors: Sameer Jung Karki, Gokhan Saygili

Abstract:

The allowable bearing capacity of foundation systems is determined by applying a factor of safety to the ultimate bearing capacity. Conventional ultimate bearing capacity calculations routines are based on deterministic input parameters where the nonuniformity and inhomogeneity of soil and site properties are not accounted for. Hence, the laws of mathematics like probability calculus and statistical analysis cannot be directly applied to foundation engineering. It’s assumed that the Factor of Safety, typically as high as 3.0, incorporates the uncertainty of the input parameters. This factor of safety is estimated based on subjective judgement rather than objective facts. It is an ambiguous term. Hence, a probabilistic analysis of the bearing capacity of an isolated footing on a clayey soil is carried out by using the Monte Carlo Simulation method. This simulated model was compared with the traditional discrete model. It was found out that the bearing capacity of soil was found higher for the simulated model compared with the discrete model. This was verified by doing the sensitivity analysis. As the number of simulations was increased, there was a significant % increase of the bearing capacity compared with discrete bearing capacity. The bearing capacity values obtained by simulation was found to follow a normal distribution. While using the traditional value of Factor of safety 3, the allowable bearing capacity had lower probability (0.03717) of occurring in the field compared to a higher probability (0.15866), while using the simulation derived factor of safety of 1.5. This means the traditional factor of safety is giving us bearing capacity that is less likely occurring/available in the field. This shows the subjective nature of factor of safety, and hence probability method is suggested to address the variability of the input parameters in bearing capacity equations.

Keywords: bearing capacity, factor of safety, isolated footing, montecarlo simulation

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Authors: Adeleye Johnson Adelagunayeja

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The concept of making cities, communities, and neighborhoods smart, intelligent, and responsive is relatively new to Africa and its urban renewal agencies. Efforts must be made by relevant agencies to begin a holistic review of the implementation of infrastructural facilities and urban renewal methodologies that will revolve around the appreciation and application of artificial intelligence. The propagation of the ideals and benefits of the smart city concept are key factors that can encourage governments of African nations, the African Union, and other regional organizations in Africa to embrace the ideology. The ability of this smart city concept to curb insecurities – armed robbery, assassination, terrorism, and civil disorder – is one major reason, amongst others, why African governments must speedily embrace this contemporary developmental concept whose time has come! The seamlessness to access information and virtually cross-pollinate ideas with people living in already established smart cities, when combined with the great efficiency that the emergence of smart cities brings with it, are other reasons why Africa must come up with action plans that can enable the existing cities to metamorphose into smart cities. Innovations will be required to enable Africa to develop a smart city concept that will be compatible with the basic patterns of livelihood because the essence of the smart city evolution is to make life better for people to co-exist, to be productive and to enjoy standard infrastructural facilities. This research paper enumerates the multifaceted adaptive factors that have the potentials of making the adoption of smartcity concept in Africa seamless. It also proffers solutions to potential bottlenecks capable of undermining the execution of the smart city concept in Africa.

Keywords: smartcity compactibility innovation Africa government evolution, Africa as global village member, evolution in Africa, ways to make Africa adopt smartcity, localizing smartcity concept in Africa, bottleneck to smartcity developmet in Africa

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Authors: Jae-Ho Jang, Jung-Soo Kim, Byung-Jun Kim, Dae-Geun Nam, Uoo-Chang Jung, Yoon-Suk Choi

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Low alloy steels are widely used for pressure vessels, spent fuel storage, and steam generators required to withstand the internal pressure and prevent unexpected failure in nuclear power plants, which these may suffer embrittlement by high levels of radiation and heat for a long period. Therefore, it is important to improve mechanical properties of low alloy steels for the integrity of structure materials at an early stage of fabrication. Recently, it showed that a double austenitizing and tempering (DTA) process resulted in a significant improvement of strength and toughness by refinement of prior austenite grains. In this study, it was investigated that the mechanism of improving mechanical properties according to the change of microstructure by the second fully austenitizing temperature of the DAT process for low alloy steel required the structural integrity. Compared to conventional single austenitizing and tempering (SAT) process, the tensile elongation properties have improved about 5%, DBTTs have obtained result in reduction of about -65℃, and grain size has decreased by about 50% in the DAT process conditions. Grain refinement has crack propagation interference effect due to an increase of the grain boundaries and amount of energy absorption at low temperatures. The higher first austenitizing temperature in the DAT process, the more increase the spheroidized carbides and strengthening the effect of fine precipitates in the ferrite grain. The area ratio of the dimple in the transition area has increased by proportion to the effect of spheroidized carbides. This may the primary mechanisms that can improve low-temperature toughness and elongation while maintaining a similar hardness and strength.

Keywords: double austenitizing, Ductile Brittle transition temperature, grain refinement, heat treatment, low alloy steel, low-temperature toughness

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Authors: Mattahias Maj, Fabio Tatzgern, Karl Adam, Damir Kahrimanovic, Markus Varga

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Torpedo ladles are necessary transport carriages in steel production to move the molten crude iron from the blast furnace to the steel refining plant. This requires the ladles to be high temperature resistant and insulate well to preserve the temperature and hold the risk of solidification at bay. Therefore, the involved refractories lining the inside of the torpedo ladles are chosen mostly according to their thermal properties, although wear of the materials by the liquid iron is also of major importance. In this work, we combined investigations of the thermal behaviour with wear studies of the lining over the whole lifetime of a torpedo ladle. Additional numerical simulations enabled a detailed model of the mechanical loads and temperature propagation at the various stations (heating, filling, emptying, cooling). The core of the investigation were detailed 3D measurements of the ladle’s cavity and thereby quantitative information of the wear progress at different time intervals during the lifetime of the ladles. The measurements allowed for a separation of different wear zones according to severity, namely the “splash zone” where the melt directly hits the ladle, the “melt zone” where during transport always liquid melt is present, and the “slag zone”, where the slag floats on the melt causing the most severe wear loss. Numerical simulations of the filling process were taken to calculate stress levels and temperature gradients, which led to the different onset of wear on those zones. Thermal imaging and punctual temperature measurements allowed for a study of the thermal consequences entailed by the wear onset. Additional “classical” damage analysis of the worn refractories complete the investigation. Thereby the wear mechanisms leading to the substantial wear loss were disclosed.

Keywords: high temperature, tribology, liquid-solid interaction, refractories, thermography

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Authors: E. Rama Devi Jothilingam

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Diabetes mellitus is now one of the most common non communicable diseases globally. India leads the world with largest number of diabetic subjects earning the title "diabetes capital of the world". In order to reduce the mortality rate, a fuzzy expert system is designed to predict the severity of cardiac and renal problems of diabetic patients using fuzzy logic. Since uncertainty is inherent in medicine, fuzzy logic is used in this research work to remove the inherent fuzziness of linguistic concepts and uncertain status in diabetes mellitus which is the prime cause for the cardiac arrest and renal failure. In this work, the controllable risk factors "blood sugar, insulin, ketones, lipids, obesity, blood pressure and protein/creatinine ratio" are considered as input parameters and the "the stages of cardiac" (SOC)" and the stages of renal" (SORD) are considered as the output parameters. The triangular membership functions are used to model the input and output parameters. The rule base is constructed for the proposed expert system based on the knowledge from the medical experts. Mamdani inference engine is used to infer the information based on the rule base to take major decision in diagnosis. Mean of maximum is used to get a non fuzzy control action that best represent possibility distribution of an inferred fuzzy control action. The proposed system also classifies the patients with high risk and low risk using fuzzy c means clustering techniques so that the patients with high risk are treated immediately. The system is validated with Matlab and is used as a tracking system with accuracy and robustness.

Keywords: Diabetes mellitus, fuzzy expert system, Mamdani, MATLAB

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Authors: Sade Ogundipe

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The private healthcare sector in the United Kingdom has experienced unprecedented challenges during times of crisis, necessitating effective leadership adaptability. This qualitative study delves into the dynamic landscape of leadership within the sector, particularly during crises, employing the lenses of complexity theory and institutional theory to unravel the intricate mechanisms at play. Through in-depth interviews with 25 various levels of leaders in the UK private healthcare sector, this research explores how leaders in UK private healthcare organizations navigate complex and often chaotic environments, shedding light on their adaptive strategies and decision-making processes during crises. Complexity theory is used to analyze the complicated, volatile nature of healthcare crises, emphasizing the need for adaptive leadership in such contexts. Institutional theory, on the other hand, provides insights into how external and internal institutional pressures influence leadership behavior. Findings from this study highlight the multifaceted nature of leadership adaptability, emphasizing the significance of leaders' abilities to embrace uncertainty, engage in sensemaking, and leverage the institutional environment to enact meaningful changes. Furthermore, this research sheds light on the challenges and opportunities that leaders face when adapting to crises within the UK private healthcare sector. The study's insights contribute to the growing body of literature on leadership in healthcare, offering practical implications for leaders, policymakers, and stakeholders within the UK private healthcare sector. By employing the dual perspectives of complexity theory and institutional theory, this research provides a holistic understanding of leadership adaptability in the face of crises, offering valuable guidance for enhancing the resilience and effectiveness of healthcare leadership within this vital sector.

Keywords: leadership, adaptability, decision-making, complexity, complexity theory, institutional theory, organizational complexity, complex adaptive system (CAS), crises, healthcare

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Authors: Abdul Ghani Khan

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This paper focuses on the Buddhist rock carvings in the Diamer-Basha reservoir area, Gilgit-Baltistan, which is perhaps the largest rock art province of the world. The study region has thousands of rock carvings, particularly of the stupa carvings, engraved by artists, devotees or pilgrims, merchants have left their marks in the landscape or for the propagation of Buddhism. The Pak-German Archaeological Mission prepared, documented, and published the extensive catalogues of these carvings. Though, to date, very little systematic or statistically driven analysis was undertaken for in-depth understandings of the Buddhist rock carving tradition of the study region. This paper had made an attempt to examine stupa carvings and their constituent parts from the five selected sites, namely Oshibat, Shing Nala, Gichi Nala, Dadam Das, and Chilas Bridge. The statistical analyses and classification of the stupa carvings and their chronological contexts were carried out with the help of modern scientific tools such as STATA, FileMaker Pro, and MapSource softwares. The study had found that the tradition of stupa carvings on the surfaces of the rocks at the five selected sites continued for around 900 years, from the 1st century BCE to 8th century CE. There is a variation within the chronological settings of each of selected sites, possibly impacted by their utilization within particular landscapes, such as political (for example, change in political administrations or warfare) landscapes and geographical (for example, shifting of routes). The longer existence of the stupa carvings' tradition at these specific locations also indicates their central position on the trade and communication routes, and these were possibly also linked with religious ideologies within their particular times. The analyses of the different architectural elements of stupa carvings in the study area show that this tradition had structural similarities and differences in temporal and spatial contexts.

Keywords: rock carvings, stupa, stupa carvings, Buddhism, Pak-German archaeological mission

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Authors: David Alejandro Lazo-Vasquez, Jorge Luis Balino

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In the petroleum industry, multiphase flow occurs when oil, gas, and water are transported in the same pipe through large pipeline systems. The flow can take different patterns depending on parameters like fluid velocities, pipe diameter, pipe inclination, and fluid properties. Mainly, intermittent flow is produced by the natural propagation of short and long waves, according to the Kelvin-Helmholtz Stability Theory. To model stratified flow and the onset of intermittent flow, it is crucial to have knowledge of short and long waves behavior. The two-fluid model, frequently employed for characterizing multiphase systems, becomes ill-posed for high liquid and gas velocities and large inclination angles, for short waves can develop infinite growth rates. We are interested in focusing attention on long-wave instability, which leads to the production of roll waves that may grow and result in the transition from stratified flow to intermittent flow. In this study, global and local linear stability analyses for dynamic and kinematic stability criteria predict the regions of stability of the flow for different pipe inclinations and fluid velocities in regularized and non-regularized systems, concurrently. It was possible to distinguish when: wave growth rates are absolutely bounded (stable stratified smooth flow), waves have finite growth rates (unstable stratified wavy flow), and when the equation system becomes elliptic and hyperbolization is needed. In order to bound short wave growth rates and regularize the equation system, we incorporated some lower and higher-order terms like interfacial drag and surface tension, respectively.

Keywords: linear stability analysis, multiphase flow, onset of slugging, two-fluid model regularization

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Authors: Geetika Richa, M. L. Sharma

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Bamboo as an ancient herbal medicine has been used for thousands of years in Asia and goes by many names such as tabashir, banslochan etc. It is often used for its tonic and astringent properties. Modern analysis of bamboos show high amount of vitamins and minerals which makes them valuable as a curative. Bamboo leaf decoction and young shoots are known as remedy for intestinal worms, healing of ulcers and stomach disorders. Bamboos are known to be propagated by large scale plantations but propagation through seeds occurs very limited as they have very short viability of few months. Seeds loses viability over a period of time even under controlled conditions and important factors that affect seed viability is the decline in reserve food material, decrease in membrane integrity and fall in endogenous level of growth hormones. Invigoration treatments that include hydration, dehydration, incorporation of bioactive chemicals such as growth regulators, nutrients and antioxidants etc. improve the seed performance. Our studies were aimed to determine the most effective invigoration treatments to enhance vigour and viability of seeds by following invigoration treatments, i.e., hardening. Treated seeds were stored at controlled temperature and humidity (in desiccators at 4°C). In hardening, chemicals were applied in 3 different concentrations to three replicates of 10 seeds. Hardening was done withGA3, IAA, (each with concentrations of 10 ppm, 20 ppm and 50 ppm), calcium oxychloride, neem leaf powder and clay (each with concentrations of 2%, 5% and 10%). Statistically all the hardening materials were effective but GA3 50 ppm was the most effective one in maintaining germination percentage and vigour index. Hardening treatments increased the germination percentage of seeds, i.e. 86.2%, over control which showed germination percentage of 80.2%. It was concluded that in order to maintain seed viability during storage for longer period of time, invigoration treatments have been found to be very effective.

Keywords: invigoration, seed quality, viability, hardening, membrane integrity, decoction

Procedia PDF Downloads 313