Search results for: casual relationship model

Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

Abstract:

Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Hammad Khan, Wookeun Bae

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The objective of this study was to achieve, optimize and control the highly loaded and efficient nitrite production having suitability for autotrophic and heterotrophic denitritation. A lab scale CSTR for partial and full nitritation was operated to treat the livestock manure digester liquor having an ammonium concentration of ~2000 mg-NH4+-N/L and biodegradable contents of ~0.8 g-COD/L. The experiments were performed at 30°C, pH: 8.0, DO: 1.5 mg/L and SRT ranging from 7-20 days. After 125 days operation, >95% nitrite buildup having the ammonium loading rate of ~3.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day was seen with almost complete ammonium conversion. On increasing the loading rate further (i-e, from 3.2-6.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day), stability of the system remained unaffected. On decreasing the pH from 8 to 7.5 and further 7.2, removal rate can be easily controlled as 95%, 75% and even 50%. Results demonstrated that nitritation stability and desired removal rates are controlled by a balance of simultaneous inhibition by FA & FNA, pH affect and DO limitation. These parameters proved to be effective even to produce an appropriate influent for anammox. In addition, a mathematical model, identified through the occurring biological reactions, is proposed to optimize the full and partial nitritation process. The proposed model present relationship between pH, ammonium and produced nitrite for full and partial nitritation under the varying concentrations of DO, and simultaneous inhibition by FA and FNA.

Keywords: stable nitritation, high loading, autrophic denitritation, hetrotrophic denitritation

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Yingchen Yang

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In this study, a diagnostic assessment model for Mastery Engineering Learning was established based on a group of undergraduate students who studied in an engineering course. A diagnostic assessment model can examine both students' learning process and report achievement results. One very unique characteristic is that the diagnostic assessment model can recognize the errors and anything blocking students in their learning processes. The feedback is provided to help students to know how to solve the learning problems with alternative strategies and help the instructor to find alternative pedagogical strategies in the instructional designs. Dynamics is a core course in which is a common course being shared by several engineering programs. This course is a very challenging for engineering students to solve the problems. Thus knowledge acquisition and problem-solving skills are crucial for student success. Therefore, developing an effective and valid assessment model for student learning are of great importance. Diagnostic assessment is such a model which can provide effective feedback for both students and instructor in the mastery of engineering learning.

Keywords: diagnostic assessment, mastery learning, engineering, bayesian network model, learning processes

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Authors: Suraj Jena, Rabindra Kumar Panda

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The study region of the reported study was in Eastern India, having a sub-humid sub-tropical climate and sandy loam soil. The rainfall in this region has wide temporal and spatial variation. Due to lack of adequate surface water to meet the irrigation and household demands, groundwater is being over exploited in that region leading to continuous depletion of groundwater level. Therefore, there is an obvious urgency in reversing the depleting groundwater level through induced recharge, which becomes more critical under the climate change scenarios. The major goal of the reported study was to investigate the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge and subsequent adaptation strategies. Groundwater recharge was modelled using HELP3, a quasi-two-dimensional, deterministic, water-routing model along with global climate models (GCMs) and three global warming scenarios, to examine the changes in groundwater recharge rates for a 2030 climate under a variety of soil and vegetation covers. The relationship between the changing mean annual recharge and mean annual rainfall was evaluated for every combination of soil and vegetation using sensitivity analysis. The relationship was found to be statistically significant (p<0.05) with a coefficient of determination of 0.81. Vegetation dynamics and water-use affected by the increase in potential evapotranspiration for large climate variability scenario led to significant decrease in recharge from 49–658 mm to 18–179 mm respectively. Therefore, appropriate conjunctive use, irrigation schedule and enhanced recharge practices under the climate variability and land use/land cover change scenarios impacting the groundwater recharge needs to be understood properly for groundwater sustainability.

Keywords: Groundwater recharge, climate variability, Land use/cover, GCM

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Authors: Paula A. Cruise, Carvell McLeary

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Employee turnover leads to lowered productivity, decreased morale and work quality, and psychological effects associated with employee separation and replacement. Yet, it remains unknown why talented employees willingly withdraw from organizations. This uncertainty is worsened as studies; a) priorities organizational over individual predictors resulting in restriction in range in turnover measurement; b) focus on actual rather than intended turnover thereby limiting conceptual understanding of the turnover construct and its relationship with other variables and; c) produce inconsistent findings across cultures, contexts and industries despite a clear need for a unified perspective. The current study addressed these gaps by adopting the theory of planned behavior (TPB) framework to examine socio-cognitive factors in organizational trust and individual turnover intentions among bankers and energy employees in Jamaica. In a comparative study of n=369 [n_bank= 264; male=57 (22.73%); n_energy =105; male =45 (42.86)], it was hypothesized that organizational trust was a predictor of employee turnover intention, and the effect of individual, group, cognitive and socio-affective variables varied across industry. Findings from structural equation modelling confirmed the hypothesis, with a model of both cognitive and socio-affective variables being a better fit [CMIN (χ²) = 800.067, df = 364, p ≤ .000; CFI = 0.950; RMSEA = 0.057 with 90% C.I. (0.052 - 0.062); PCLOSE = 0.016; PNFI = 0.818 in predicting turnover intention. The findings are discussed in relation to socio-cognitive components of trust models and predicting negative employee behaviors across cultures and industries.

Keywords: context-specific organizational trust, cross-cultural psychology, theory of planned behavior, employee turnover intention

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Authors: Rujuta Matapurkar, Shivganesh Bhargava

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This paper discusses work-family enrichment and its relationship with certain antecedents and outcomes while considering effect of mindfulness and organizational pride as moderators. The work-family enrichment has been the topic of interest for researchers as well as practitioners for decades now. It focusses on the positive side of work family interaction rather that the scarcity or balance principle. Research shows that work family enrichment is linked to multiple work place outcomes like job satisfaction, organization citizenship behavior and turnover intention. Enrichment is also linked to life outcomes like life satisfaction, wellbeing. Thus not only the individuals but the organizations too want to engage in the activities resulting in the positive spillover between work and non-work domains. One of the recent focus areas in organization behavior literature has been Mindfulness. Mindfulness is defined as a trait or state in which the mind focuses on the present. It is the conscious attention and awareness of the present thought. The research in the area of mindfulness at work suggests that the same is related to work family balance and job satisfaction. This paper discusses the possibility of mindfulness having effect on the relationship between antecedents of enrichment and enrichment. On the outcome side job embeddedness and job ambivalence are the newest additions to the retention literature. Job ambivalence talks about having strong positive as well as negative feelings about the job. Job ambivalence is the work outcome which is linked to turnover intention. This paper talks about the relationship between enrichment and job ambivalence. Another measure for work place outcomes which is discussed in recent research is job embeddedness. This term talks about the advantages of continuing with the job rather than quitting it. It is described as like a net or a web in which an individual can become stuck and is focused on why people stay rather than on how they leave. The research has have found that establishing or increasing job embeddedness is likely to increase retention, attendance, citizenship and job performance. This paper studies the relationship between enrichment and embeddedness. Lastly this paper studies whether organizational pride has an an effect on the relationship between enrichment and its outcomes. This paper concludes with the direction for future research.

Keywords: work-family enrichment, mindfulness, job ambivalence, job embeddedness, organizational pride

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Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

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This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption, in Romania. Both techno-economic and consumer behavior approaches have been considered, in order to develop the model. The proposed model aims to reduce the energy consumption, in households, by assembling in a unitary model, aspects concerning: residential lighting, space heating, hot water, and combined space heating – hot water, space cooling, and passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating domestic energy consumption model, and quantify not only technical-economic issues, but also consumer behavior impact, related to people decision to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: consumer behavior, open source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model, virtual technologies

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Authors: Shachi Pathak

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We are living in knowledge based economy where firms can gain competitive advantage with the help of managing knowledge within the organization. The purpose the study is to develop a conceptual model to explain the relationship between factors affecting knowledge sharing, called as knowledge enablers, in an organization, knowledge sharing activities and organizational performance, using system dynamics approach. This research is important since it will provide better understandings on what are the key knowledge enablers to support knowledge sharing activities, and how knowledge sharing activities will affect the capability of an organization to enhance the performance of the organization.

Keywords: knowledge management, knowledge sharing, organizational performance, system dynamics

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Authors: Cristina Schreiner, Romeo Ciobanu, Marius Pislaru

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This paper aims to build a system based on fuzzy models that can be implemented in the assessment of ecological systems, to determine appropriate methods of action for reducing adverse effects on environmental and implicit the population. The model proposed provides new perspective for environmental assessment, and it can be used as a practical instrument for decision-making.

Keywords: ecosystem model, environmental security, fuzzy logic, sustainability of habitable regions

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Authors: Pui-Lai To, Chechen Liao, Ming-Chi Sung

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Work and family life are the most important areas for men and women today. Every professional is required to meet and fulfill the responsibilities of work and family roles. Although the development and popularity of communication technology bring a lot of benefits, including effective and efficient communication, may also generate conflicts between work and family life. Since mobile devices and the applications of mobile devices, such as instant messages, are ubiquitous, the boundaries of work and family roles are increasingly blurred. Professionals may be in the risk of work over-loading and work-family conflict. This study examines the impact of work stress on professionals’ life and health in the context of instant messaging application of smart phone. This study uses a web-based questionnaire to collect samples. The questionnaires are sent via virtual community sites, instant messaging applications, and e-mail. The study develops and empirically validates a work-family conflict model by integrating the pressure theory and technostress factors. The causal relationship between variables in the research model is tested. In terms of data analysis, Partial Least Square (PLS) in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is used for sample analysis and research model testing. The results of this study are as follows. First, both the variables of work-related stress and technological violations positively affect the work-family conflict. Second, both the variables of work-loading and technology-overloading have no effect on work-family conflict. Third, work-family conflict has negative effect on job satisfaction, family satisfaction, physical health, and mental health.

Keywords: mental health, physical health, technostress, work-family conflict, work-related stress

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Authors: Hassan Al Salman

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We consider a nonlinear parabolic cross diffusion model arising in applied mathematics. A fully practical piecewise linear finite element approximation of the model is studied. By using entropy-type inequalities and compactness arguments, existence of a global weak solution is proved. Providing further regularity of the solution of the model, some uniqueness results and error estimates are established. Finally, some numerical experiments are performed.

Keywords: cross diffusion model, entropy-type inequality, finite element approximation, numerical analysis

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Authors: Rui Mao, Heming Ji, Xiaoyu Wang

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Keystroke dynamics are widely used in identity recognition. It has the advantage that the individual typing rhythm is difficult to imitate. It also supports continuous authentication through the keyboard without extra devices. The existing keystroke dynamics authentication methods based on machine learning have a drawback in supporting relatively complex scenarios with massive data. There are drawbacks to both feature extraction and model optimization in these methods. To overcome the above weakness, an authentication model of keystroke dynamics based on deep learning is proposed. The model uses feature vectors formed by keystroke content and keystroke time. It ensures efficient continuous authentication by cooperating attention mechanisms with the combination of CNN and Bi-LSTM. The model has been tested with Open Data Buffalo dataset, and the result shows that the FRR is 3.09%, FAR is 3.03%, and EER is 4.23%. This proves that the model is efficient and accurate on continuous authentication.

Keywords: keystroke dynamics, identity authentication, deep learning, CNN, LSTM

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Authors: Anwar Jarndal

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In this paper, a genetic-neural-network (GNN) based large-signal model for GaN HEMTs is presented along with its parameters extraction procedure. The model is easy to construct and implement in CAD software and requires only DC and S-parameter measurements. An improved decomposition technique is used to model self-heating effect. Two GNN models are constructed to simulate isothermal drain current and power dissipation, respectively. The two model are then composed to simulate the drain current. The modeling procedure was applied to a packaged GaN-on-Si HEMT and the developed model is validated by comparing its large-signal simulation with measured data. A very good agreement between the simulation and measurement is obtained.

Keywords: GaN HEMT, computer-aided design and modeling, neural networks, genetic optimization

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Authors: Abdulrazzak Akroot, Lutfu Namli

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Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are one of the most promising technologies since they can produce electricity directly from fuel and generate a lot of waste heat that is generally used in the gas turbines to promote the general performance of the thermal power plant. In this study, the energy, and exergy analysis of a solid oxide fuel cell/gas turbine hybrid system was proceed in MATLAB to examine the performance characteristics of the hybrid system in two different configurations: anode-supported model and electrolyte-supported model. The obtained results indicate that if the fuel utilization factor reduces from 0.85 to 0.65, the overall efficiency decreases from 64.61 to 59.27% for the anode-supported model whereas it reduces from 58.3 to 56.4% for the electrolyte-supported model. Besides, the overall exergy reduces from 53.86 to 44.06% for the anode-supported model whereas it reduces from 39.96 to 33.94% for the electrolyte-supported model. Furthermore, increasing the air utilization factor has a negative impact on the electrical power output and the efficiencies of the overall system due to the reduction in the O₂ concentration at the cathode-electrolyte interface.

Keywords: solid oxide fuel cell, anode-supported model, electrolyte-supported model, energy analysis, exergy analysis

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Authors: Benjamin Bae, Mahdy Elhusseiny, Sherif El-Halaby

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This study investigates the relationship between some cultural factors and the level of dividend payouts of banks in a number of Muslim countries. We examine whether cultural factors play any role in determining dividend payout policy in banks. The results suggest that banks in high masculinity countries tend to pay higher dividends than low masculinity countries. The results also show that banks in high uncertainty avoidance (UA) countries tend to pay lower dividends than high UA countries. Additionally, the results of this study indicate that banks in high long-term orientation (LTO) countries tend to pay lower dividends than low LTO countries. However, two other cultural factors of power distance (PD) and individualism do not have any incremental explanatory power on the dividend payouts. Overall, this research adds to our understanding of the bank’s dividend payout policies. First, evidence on the relationship between the cultural factors and bank’s level of dividend payouts should be useful to investors. Second, the findings of this study provide financial statement users with useful information about the bank’s dividend payout levels. Third, in general, it also adds to the accounting and finance literature on dividends.

Keywords: cultural factor, dividend payout, Hofstede index, bank industry

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

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The purpose of work is to study the phenomenon of agitation of storm waves at basin caused by different directions of waves relative to the current provision thrown numerical model based on the equation in shallow water using Boussinesq model MIKE 21 BW. According to the diminishing effect of penetration of a wave optimal solution will be available to be reproduced in reduced model. Another alternative arrangement throws will be proposed to reduce the agitation and the effects of the swell reflection caused by the penetration of waves in the harbor.

Keywords: agitation, Boussinesq equations, combination, harbor

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Authors: Matthew Perkins-McVey

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The pharmacological arm of mental health treatment is in a state of crisis. The promises of the Prozac century have fallen short; the number of different therapeutically significant medications that successfully complete development shrinks with every passing year, and the demand for better treatments only grows. Answering these hardships is a renewed optimism concerning the efficacy of controlled psychedelic therapy, a renaissance that has seen the return of a familiar concept: intoxication as a model psychosis. First appearing in the mid-19th century and featuring in an array of 20th century efforts in psychedelic research, model psychosis has, once more, come to the foreground of psychedelic research. And yet, little has been made of where this peculiar, perhaps even intoxicatingly mad, the idea originates. This paper seeks to uncover the conceptual foundations underlying the early emergence of model psychosis. This narrative will explore the conceptual foundations behind their independent development of the concept of model psychosis, considering their similarities and differences. In the course of this examination, it becomes apparent that the definition of endogenous psychosis, which formed in the mid-19th century, is the direct product of emerging understandings of exogenous psychosis, or model psychosis. Ultimately, the goal is not merely to understand how and why model psychosis became thinkable but to examine how seemingly secondary concept changes can engender new ways of being a psychiatric subject.

Keywords: history of psychiatry, model psychosis, history of medicine, history of science

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Authors: Jang kyun Cho, Jeong-dong Lee

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The advent of the Internet, mobile communications, and social network services has stimulated social interactions among consumers, allowing people to affect one another’s innovation adoptions by exchanging information more frequently and more quickly. Previous diffusion models, such as the Bass model, however, face limitations in reflecting such recent phenomena in society. These models are weak in their ability to model interactions between agents; they model aggregated-level behaviors only. The agent based model, which is an alternative to the aggregate model, is good for individual modeling, but it is still not based on an economic perspective of social interactions so far. This study assumes the presence of social utility from other consumers in the adoption of innovation and investigates the effect of individual interactions on innovation diffusion by developing a new model called the interaction-based diffusion model. By comparing this model with previous diffusion models, the study also examines how the proposed model explains innovation diffusion from the perspective of economics. In addition, the study recommends the use of a small-world network topology instead of cellular automata to describe innovation diffusion. This study develops a model based on individual preference and heterogeneous social interactions using utility specification, which is expandable and, thus, able to encompass various issues in diffusion research, such as reservation price. Furthermore, the study proposes a new framework to forecast aggregated-level market demand from individual level modeling. The model also exhibits a good fit to real market data. It is expected that the study will contribute to our understanding of the innovation diffusion process through its microeconomic theoretical approach.

Keywords: innovation diffusion, agent based model, small-world network, demand forecasting

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Authors: Titilola Adebowale

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Some factors are responsible for the social adjustment among the adolescents. The study investigated resiliency, peer and parental support as factors that could determine social adjustment among adolescents in Ilorin, Kwara state. The study adopted descriptive survey research design. A sample size of 300 SS1 & SS2 students from ten secondary schools, six public and four private schools were randomly selected within Ilorin Metropolis. Self-structured questionnaire that was validated and the reliability ensured was used to collect data from the respondents. Four hypotheses were postulated and tested at 0.05 level of significance. Data collected was analysed using Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) and Regression Analysis. The findings revealed that there was a positive relationship between resiliency and social adjustment: r (298) = .402, p<0.01, r2 = .162; that there was a positive relationship between peer support and social adjustment: r (298) = .570, p<0.01, r2 = .325; that there was a positive relationship between parental support and social adjustment: r (298) = .451, p<0.01, r2 = .203; also reveals significant joint contribution of the independent variables (resilience, peer support, parental support) to the prediction of social adjustment: F (3,296) = 55.587, P<0.01. Various recommendations were given which includes the roles of government, agencies, individuals, parents, teachers, religious and marriage institutions.

Keywords: resiliency, peer support, parental support, adolescents, social adjustment

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Authors: Soheil Roumi, Fan Zhang, Rodney Stewart

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Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) indexes represented the suitability of a place to study, work, and live. Many indexes have been introduced based on the physical measurement or occupant surveys in commercial buildings. The earlier studies did not elaborate on the relationship between energy consumption and IEQ in office buildings. Such a relationship can provide a comprehensive overview of the building's performance. Also, it would find the potential of already constructed buildings under the upcoming climate change. A commercial building in southeast Queensland, Australia, was evaluated in this study. Physical measurements of IEQ and Energy areconducted, and their relationship will be determined using statistical analysis. The case study building is modelled in TRNSys software, and it will be validatedusingthe actual building's BMS data. Then, the modelled buildingwill be simulated by predicted weather data developed by the commonwealth scientific and industrial research organisation of Australia to investigate the occupant resilience and energy consumption. Finally, recommendations will be presented to consume less energy while providinga proper indoor environment for office occupants.

Keywords: IEQ, office buildings, thermal comfort, occupant resilience

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Authors: Emmanuel Nkemakolam Okwuduba, Fransica Chinelo Offiah

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The technique of teaching chemistry to students is one of the determining factors towards their achievement. Thus, the study investigated the relationship between classroom interaction patterns and students’ achievement in Chemistry. The purpose of this study was to identify patterns of interaction in an observed chemistry classroom, determine the amount of teacher talk, student talk and period of silence and to find out the relationship between them and the mean achievement scores of students. Five research questions and three hypotheses guided the study. The study was a correlational survey. The sample consisted of 450 (212males and 238 females) senior secondary one students and 12 (5males and 7 females) chemistry teachers drawn from 12 selected secondary schools in Awka Education Zone of Anambra state. In each of the 12 selected schools, an intact class was used. Science Interaction Category (SIC) and Chemistry Achievement Test (CAT) were developed, validated and used for data collection. Each teacher was observed three times and the interaction patterns coded using a coding sheet containing the Science Interaction Category. At the end of the observational period, the Chemistry Achievement Test (for collection of data on students’ achievement in chemistry) was administered on the students. Frequencies, percentage, mean, standard deviation and Pearson product moment correlation were used for data analysis. The result showed that the percentages of teacher talk, student talk and silence were 59.6%, 37.6% and 2.8% respectively. The Pearson correlation coefficient(r) for teacher talk, student talk and silence were -0.61, 0.76 and-0.18 respectively. The result showed negative and significant relationship between teacher talk and mean achievement scores of students; positive and significant relationship between student talk and mean achievement scores of students but there is no relationship between period of silence and mean achievement scores of students at 0.05 significant levels. The following recommendations were made based on the findings: teachers should establish high level of student talk through initiation and response as it promotes involvement and enhances achievement.

Keywords: academic achievement, chemistry, classroom, interactions patterns

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Authors: Retius Chifurira

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Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

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Authors: Dorota Miroslaw-Swiatek, Mateusz Grygoruk, Sylwia Szporak

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We applied a two-dimensional surface water flow model with irregular wet boundaries. In this model, flow equations are in the form of a 2-D, non-linear diffusion equations which allows to account spatial variations in flow resistance and topography. Calculation domain to simulate the flow pattern in the floodplain is congruent with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) grid. The rate and direction of sheet flow in wetlands is affected by vegetation type and density, therefore the developed model take into account spatial distribution vegetation resistance to the water flow. The model was tested in a part of the Biebrza Valley, of an outstanding heterogeneity in the elevation and flow resistance distributions due to various ecohydrological conditions and management measures. In our approach we used the highest-possible quality of the DEM in order to obtain hydraulic slopes and vegetation distribution parameters for the modelling. The DEM was created from the cloud of points measured in the LiDAR technology. The LiDAR reflects both the land surface as well as all objects on top of it such as vegetation. Depending on the density of vegetation cover the ability of laser penetration is variable. Therefore to obtain accurate land surface model the “vegetation effect” was corrected using data collected in the field (mostly the vegetation height) and satellite imagery such as Ikonos (to distinguish different vegetation types of the floodplain and represent them spatially). Model simulation was performed for the spring thaw flood in 2009.

Keywords: floodplain flow, Biebrza valley, model simulation, 2D surface flow model

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Authors: Manam Hanfi

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Pakistan is a victim of terrorism since 9/11 attacks. Since then it is a home for violence and extremism. One of the major reasons behind rising violence and extremism in Pakistan is radicalization. Pakistan has seen and suffered from the modification of terrorism from old to new. In new terrorism, the terrorist organizations incorporated internet to disseminate propaganda, to recruit and train people. The study focuses on the relationship between Pakistan and new terrorism and examines how the internet is being used by terrorist organizations. The study investigates radicalization through social media by terrorist organizations in Pakistan with the help of case studies. The study suggests five ways to counter radicalization, including, counter narrative on social media, content analysis of the data on the internet, curriculum and madrassa reforms, teaching peace education in the educational institutions and use of technical software such as eGLYPH to quickly remove violent data from social media. Lastly, the research attempted to contribute in counter-radicalization by combining the media dependency model and ideas for counter-radicalization. The dependency model elaborates the impact of mass media content on the audience. If media dependency is high, it will cause cognitive, affective and behavioral changes. In order to counter radicalization through social media, it is important to make cognitive, affective and behavioral changes with the help of counter-radicalization suggestions.

Keywords: counter radicalization, extremism, social media, terrorism

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Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hyunwoo Park, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

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The purpose of this study is providing an improved mode choice model considering parameters including age grouping of prime-aged and old age. In this study, 2010 Household Travel Survey data were used and improper samples were removed through the analysis. Chosen alternative, date of birth, mode, origin code, destination code, departure time, and arrival time are considered from Household Travel Survey. By preprocessing data, travel time, travel cost, mode, and ratio of people aged 45 to 55 years, 55 to 65 years and over 65 years were calculated. After the manipulation, the mode choice model was constructed using LIMDEP by maximum likelihood estimation. A significance test was conducted for nine parameters, three age groups for three modes. Then the test was conducted again for the mode choice model with significant parameters, travel cost variable and travel time variable. As a result of the model estimation, as the age increases, the preference for the car decreases and the preference for the bus increases. This study is meaningful in that the individual and households characteristics are applied to the aggregate model.

Keywords: age grouping, aging, mode choice model, multinomial logit model

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Authors: Li Xiaoge, Wang Chaodong

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We introduce the first Chinese Coreference Resolution Model based on BERT (CCRM-BERT) and show that it significantly outperforms all previous work. The key idea is to consider the features of the mention, such as part of speech, width of spans, distance between spans, etc. And the influence of each features on the model is analyzed. The model computes mention embeddings that combine BERT with features. Compared to the existing state-of-the-art span-ranking approach, our model significantly improves accuracy on the Chinese OntoNotes benchmark.

Keywords: BERT, coreference resolution, deep learning, nature language processing

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Authors: Awol Seid Ebrie

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HIV results as an incurable disease, AIDS. After a person is infected with virus, the virus gradually destroys all the infection fighting cells called CD4 cells and makes the individual susceptible to opportunistic infections which cause severe or fatal health problems. Several studies show that the CD4 cells count is the most determinant indicator of the effectiveness of the treatment or progression of the disease. The objective of this paper is to investigate the progression of the disease over time among patient under HAART treatment. Two main approaches of the generalized multilevel ordinal models; namely the proportional odds model and the nonproportional odds model have been applied to the HAART data. Also, the multilevel part of both models includes random intercepts and random coefficients. In general, four models are explored in the analysis and then the models are compared using the deviance information criteria. Of these models, the random coefficients nonproportional odds model is selected as the best model for the HAART data used as it has the smallest DIC value. The selected model shows that the progression of the disease increases as the time under the treatment increases. In addition, it reveals that gender, baseline clinical stage and functional status of the patient have a significant association with the progression of the disease.

Keywords: nonproportional odds model, proportional odds model, random coefficients model, random intercepts model

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Authors: Siri-Orn Champatong

Abstract:

This research paper was aimed to examine the relationship between visitors’ attitude towards the service marketing mix and visitors’ frequency of visit to Bangpu Recreation Centre. Based on a large and uncalculated population, the number of samples was calculated according to the formula to obtain a total of 385 samples. In collecting the samples, systematic random sampling was applied and by using of a Likert five-scale questionnaire for, a total of 21 days to collect the needed information. Mean, Standard Deviation, and Pearson’s basic statistical correlations were utilized in analyzing the data. This study discovered a high level of visitors’ attitude product and service of Bangpu Recreation Centre, price, place, promotional activities, people who provided service and physical evidence of the centre. The attitude towards process of service was discovered to be at a medium level. Additionally, the finding of an examination of a relationship between visitors’ attitude towards service marketing mix and visitors’ frequency of visit to Bangpu Recreation Centre presented that product and service, people, physical evidence and process of service provision showed a relationship with the visitors’ frequency of visit to the centre per year.

Keywords: frequency of visit, visitor, service marketing mix, Bangpu Recreation Centre

Procedia PDF Downloads 359

Authors: Babak Bashari Rad

Abstract:

A metamorphic computer virus uses different code transformation techniques to mutate its body in duplicated instances. Characteristics and function of new instances are mostly similar to their parents, but they cannot be easily detected by the majority of antivirus in market, as they depend on string signature-based detection techniques. The purpose of this research is to propose a Hidden Markov Model for classification of metamorphic viruses in executable files. In the proposed solution, portable executable files are inspected to extract the instructions opcodes needed for the examination of code. A Hidden Markov Model trained on portable executable files is employed to classify the metamorphic viruses of the same family. The proposed model is able to generate and recognize common statistical features of mutated code. The model has been evaluated by examining the model on a test data set. The performance of the model has been practically tested and evaluated based on False Positive Rate, Detection Rate and Overall Accuracy. The result showed an acceptable performance with high average of 99.7% Detection Rate.

Keywords: malware classification, computer virus classification, metamorphic virus, metamorphic malware, Hidden Markov Model

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Renaud Gaucher

Abstract:

Research on happiness has developed significantly in the past fifty years and economics and the political science are starting to be influenced by advances in the field. Until recently, finance has stayed outside this movement. The goal of our research is to integrate finance into this movement conceptually. We explain the why, the what and the how of the finance of happiness. We then study the relationship between corporate finance and happiness. We discuss the optimization of the relationship between the financial performance of a firm and the happiness at work of its employees, and the reduction of financial risk by developing goods that foster the happiness of their users. Finally we look at the development of happiness investment funds, that is investment funds founded on happiness research, and the best ways to share risks and earnings to build a happier society.

Keywords: finance, happiness, investment fund, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 178