Search results for: random dimer model

Authors: Yusuke Kuramitsu, Tomoaki Hashimoto, Hirokazu Tahara

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The control problem of underactuated spacecrafts has attracted a considerable amount of interest. The control method for a spacecraft equipped with less than three control torques is useful when one of the three control torques had failed. On the other hand, the quantized control of systems is one of the important research topics in recent years. The random dither quantization method that transforms a given continuous signal to a discrete signal by adding artificial random noise to the continuous signal before quantization has also attracted a considerable amount of interest. The objective of this study is to develop the control method based on random dither quantization method for stabilizing the rotational motion of a rigid spacecraft with two control inputs. In this paper, the effectiveness of random dither quantization control method for the stabilization of rotational motion of spacecrafts with two torque inputs is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: spacecraft control, quantized control, nonlinear control, random dither method

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Mohammad Anwar, Shah Waliullah

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This study investigated panel data regression models. This paper used Bayesian and classical methods to study the impact of institutions on economic growth from data (1990-2014), especially in developing countries. Under the classical and Bayesian methodology, the two-panel data models were estimated, which are common effects and fixed effects. For the Bayesian approach, the prior information is used in this paper, and normal gamma prior is used for the panel data models. The analysis was done through WinBUGS14 software. The estimated results of the study showed that panel data models are valid models in Bayesian methodology. In the Bayesian approach, the effects of all independent variables were positively and significantly affected by the dependent variables. Based on the standard errors of all models, we must say that the fixed effect model is the best model in the Bayesian estimation of panel data models. Also, it was proved that the fixed effect model has the lowest value of standard error, as compared to other models.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, common effect, fixed effect, random effect, Dynamic Random Effect Model

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: P. Selyshchev

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We consider fluctuations of defects density taking into account their interaction. Stochastic field of displacement generation rate gives random defect distribution. We determinate statistical characteristics (mean and dispersion) of random field of point defect distribution as function of defect generation parameters, temperature and properties of irradiated crystal.

Keywords: irradiation, primary defects, interaction, fluctuations

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Mohammad Shafiul Alam, Mineo Saito

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Graphene-based materials have attracted much attention because they are candidates for post silicon materials. Since controlling of impurities is necessary to achieve nano device, we study hydrogen impurity in multi-layer graphene. We perform local spin Density approximation (LSDA) in which the plane wave basis set and pseudopotential are used. Previously hydrogen monomer and dimer in graphene is well theoretically studied. However, hydrogen on multilayer graphene is still not clear. By using first-principles electronic structure calculations based on the LSDA within the density functional theory method, we studied hydrogen monomers and dimers in two-layer graphene. We found that the monomers are spin-polarized and have magnetic moment 1 µB. We also found that most stable dimer is much more stable than monomer. In the most stable structures of the dimers in two-layer graphene, the two hydrogen atoms are bonded to the host carbon atoms which are nearest-neighbors. In this case two hydrogen atoms are located on the opposite sides. Whereas, when the two hydrogen atoms are bonded to the same sublattice of the host materials, magnetic moments of 2 µB appear in two-layer graphene. We found that when the two hydrogen atoms are bonded to third-nearest-neighbor carbon atoms, the electronic structure is nonmagnetic. We also studied hydrogen monomers and dimers in three-layer graphene. The result is same as that of two-layer graphene. These results are very important in the field of carbon nanomaterials as it is experimentally difficult to show the magnetic state of those materials.

Keywords: first-principles calculations, LSDA, multi-layer gra-phene, nanomaterials

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Authors: V. Benedico, C. Anacleto, A. Bearzi, L. Brice, V. Delahaye

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The aim in present paper is to construct an affordable and reliable commodity prices based on a recalculation of its cost through time which allows visualize the potential risks and thus, take more appropriate decisions regarding forecasts. Here attention has been focused on Levy model, more reliable and realistic than classical random Gaussian one as it takes into consideration observed abrupt jumps in case of sudden price variation. In application to Energy Trading sector where it has never been used before, equations corresponding to Levy model have been written for electricity pricing in European market. Parameters have been set in order to predict and simulate the price and its evolution through time to remarkable accuracy. As predicted by Levy model, the results show significant spikes which reach unconventional levels contrary to currently used Brownian model.

Keywords: commodity pricing, Lévy Model, price spikes, electricity market

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Authors: Sai Charan Kamana, Harsha Vardhan Nakkina, B.R. Chandavarkar

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In a highly secure and robust key generation process, a key role is played by randomness and random numbers when current real-world cryptosystems are observed. Most of the present-day cryptographic protocols depend upon the Random Number Generators (RNG), Pseudo-Random Number Generator (PRNG). These protocols often use noisy channels such as Disk seek time, CPU temperature, Mouse pointer movement, Fan noise to obtain true random values. Despite being cost-effective, these noisy channels may need additional hardware devices to continuously communicate with them. On the other hand, Hash functions are Pseudo-Random (because of their requirements). So, they are a good replacement for these noisy channels and have low hardware requirements. This paper discusses, some of the key generation methodologies, and their drawbacks. This paper explains how hash functions can be used in key generation, how to combine Key Derivation Functions with hash functions.

Keywords: key derivation, hash based key derivation, password based key derivation, symmetric key derivation

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Authors: M. Khalid, G. N. Singh

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In this paper, we have considered the problem of estimation for population mean, on current (second) occasion in the presence of random non response in two-occasion successive sampling under two phase set-up. Modified exponential type estimators have been proposed, and their properties are studied under the assumptions that numbers of sampling units follow a distribution due to random non response situations. The performances of the proposed estimators are compared with linear combinations of two estimators, (a) sample mean estimator for fresh sample and (b) ratio estimator for matched sample under the complete response situations. Results are demonstrated through empirical studies which present the effectiveness of the proposed estimators. Suitable recommendations have been made to the survey practitioners.

Keywords: successive sampling, random non-response, auxiliary variable, bias, mean square error

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Authors: Guilan Huang

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In 2013 and 2014, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) collected data from selected fast food restaurants and full service restaurants for tracking changes in the occurrence of foodborne illness risk factors. This paper discussed how we customized spatial random sampling method by considering financial position and availability of FDA resources, and how we enriched restaurants data with location. Location information of restaurants provides opportunity for quantitatively determining random sampling within non-government units (e.g.: 240 kilometers around each data-collector). Spatial analysis also could optimize data-collectors’ work plans and resource allocation. Spatial analytic and processing platform helped us handling the spatial random sampling challenges. Our method fits in FDA’s ability to pinpoint features of foodservice establishments, and reduced both time and expense on data collection.

Keywords: geospatial technology, restaurant, retail food risk factor study, spatially random sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Fazia Rahmoune, Sofiane Ziani

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Retrial queueing systems have been extensively used to stochastically model many problems arising in computer networks, telecommunication, telephone systems, among others. In this work, we consider a $M/G/1$ retrial queue with an unreliable server with random vacations and two types of primary customers, persistent and impatient. This model involves the unreliability of the server, which can be subject to physical breakdowns and takes into account the correctives maintenances for restoring the service when a failure occurs. On the other hand, we consider random vacations, which can model the preventives maintenances for improving system performances and preventing breakdowns. We give the necessary and sufficient stability condition of the system. Then, we obtain the joint probability distribution of the server state and the number of customers in orbit and derive the more useful performance measures analytically. Moreover, we also analyze the busy period of the system. Finally, we derive the stability condition and the generating function of the stationary distribution of the number of customers in the system when there is no vacations and impatient customers, and when there is no vacations, server failures and impatient customers.

Keywords: modeling, retrial queue, unreliable server, vacation, stochastic analysis

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Authors: Azita Ramezani, Atousa Ramezani

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In the ever-escalating landscape of windows malware the necessity for pioneering defense strategies turns into undeniable this study introduces an avant-garde approach fusing the capabilities of clustering random forests and support vector machines SVM to combat the intricate web of cyber threats our fusion model triumphs with a staggering accuracy of 98.67 and an equally formidable f1 score of 98.68 a testament to its effectiveness in the realm of windows malware defense by deciphering the intricate patterns within malicious code our model not only raises the bar for detection precision but also redefines the paradigm of cybersecurity preparedness this breakthrough underscores the potential embedded in the fusion of diverse analytical methodologies and signals a paradigm shift in fortifying against the relentless evolution of windows malicious threats as we traverse through the dynamic cybersecurity terrain this research serves as a beacon illuminating the path toward a resilient future where innovative fusion models stand at the forefront of cyber threat defense.

Keywords: fusion models, cyber threat defense, windows malware, clustering, random forests, support vector machines (SVM), accuracy, f1-score, cybersecurity, malicious code detection

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Authors: S.Balaji, R.Sujatha, M. Ramakrishnan

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Signcryption is a cryptographic primitive that fulfills both the functions of digital signature and public key encryption simultaneously in low cost when compared with the traditional signature-then-encryption approach. In this paper, we propose a novel mouse movement based key generation technique to generate secret keys which is secure against the outer and insider attacks. Tag Key Encapsulation Mechanism (KEM) process is implemented using True Random Number Generator (TRNG) method. This TRNG based key is used for data encryption in the Data Encapsulation Mechanism (DEM). We compare the statistical reports of the proposed system with the previous methods which implements TKEM based on pseudo random number generator

Keywords: pseudo random umber generator, signcryption, true random number generator, node deployment

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Authors: Jay L. Fu

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Patients with Alzheimer's disease progressively lose their memory and thinking skills and, eventually, the ability to carry out simple daily tasks. The disease is irreversible, but early detection and treatment can slow down the disease progression. In this research, publicly available MRI data and demographic data from 373 MRI imaging sessions were utilized to build models to predict dementia. Various machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, random forest, and neural network, were developed. Data were divided into training and testing sets, where training sets were used to build the predictive model, and testing sets were used to assess the accuracy of prediction. Key risk factors were identified, and various models were compared to come forward with the best prediction model. Among these models, the random forest model appeared to be the best model with an accuracy of 90.34%. MMSE, nWBV, and gender were the three most important contributing factors to the detection of Alzheimer’s. Among all the models used, the percent in which at least 4 of the 5 models shared the same diagnosis for a testing input was 90.42%. These machine learning models allow early detection of Alzheimer’s with good accuracy, which ultimately leads to early treatment of these patients.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, clinical diagnosis, magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning prediction

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Authors: Jia-Shiun Chen, Quoc-Viet Huynh

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This work develops a flexible-body dynamic model of an all-terrain vehicle (ATV), capable of recovering dynamic stresses while the ATV travels on random bumpy roads. The fatigue life of components is forecasted as well. While considering the interaction between dynamic forces and structure deformation, the proposed model achieves a highly accurate structure stress prediction and fatigue life prediction. During the simulation, stress time history of the ATV structure is retrieved for life prediction. Finally, the hot sports of the ATV frame are located, and the frame life for combined road conditions is forecasted, i.e. 25833.6 hr. If the usage of vehicle is eight hours daily, the total vehicle frame life is 8.847 years. Moreover, the reaction force and deformation due to the dynamic motion can be described more accurately by using flexible body dynamics than by using rigid-body dynamics. Based on recommendations made in the product design stage before mass production, the proposed model can significantly lower development and testing costs.

Keywords: flexible-body dynamics, veicle, dynamics, fatigue, durability

Procedia PDF Downloads 367

Authors: Thao Nguyen, Maximiliano Hyon, Sany Rajagukguk, Anna Melkonyan

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Introduction: Type 2 Diabetes is a well-established risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Uncontrolled hyperglycemia in patients with established or newly diagnosed diabetes is associated with poor outcomes, including increased mortality and hospital length of stay. Objectives: Our study aims to compare three different glycemic management strategies and their association with clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized for moderate to severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Identifying optimal glycemic management strategies will improve the quality of patient care and improve their outcomes. Method: This is a retrospective observational study on patients hospitalized at Adventist Health White Memorial with severe SARS-CoV-2 infection from 11/1/2020 to 02/28/2021. The following inclusion criteria were used: positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test, age >18 yrs old, diabetes or random glucose >200 mg/dL on admission, oxygen requirement >4L/min, and treatment with glucocorticoids. Our exclusion criteria included: ICU admission within 24 hours, discharge within five days, death within five days, and pregnancy. The patients were divided into three glycemic management groups: Group 1, managed solely by the Primary Team, Group 2, by Pharmacy; and Group 3, by Endocrinologist. Primary outcomes were average glucose on Day 5, change in glucose between Days 3 and 5, and average insulin dose on Day 5 among groups. Secondary outcomes would be upgraded to ICU, inpatient mortality, and hospital length of stay. For statistics, we used IBM® SPSS, version 28, 2022. Results: Most studied patients were Hispanic, older than 60, and obese (BMI >30). It was the first CV-19 surge with the Delta variant in an unvaccinated population. Mortality was markedly high (> 40%) with longer LOS (> 13 days) and a high ICU transfer rate (18%). Most patients had markedly elevated inflammatory markers (CRP, Ferritin, and D-Dimer). These, in combination with glucocorticoids, resulted in severe hyperglycemia that was difficult to control. Average glucose on Day 5 was not significantly different between groups primary vs. pharmacy vs. endocrine (220.5 ± 63.4 vs. 240.9 ± 71.1 vs. 208.6 ± 61.7 ; P = 0.105). Change in glucose from days 3 to 5 was not significantly different between groups but trended towards favoring the endocrinologist group (-26.6±73.6 vs. 3.8±69.5 vs. -32.2±84.1; P= 0.052). TDD insulin was not significantly different between groups but trended towards higher TDD for the endocrinologist group (34.6 ± 26.1 vs. 35.2 ± 26.4 vs. 50.5 ± 50.9; P=0.054). The endocrinologist group used significantly more preprandial insulin compared to other groups (91.7% vs. 39.1% vs. 65.9% ; P < 0.001). The pharmacy used more basal insulin than other groups (95.1% vs. 79.5% vs. 79.2; P = 0.047). There were no differences among groups in the clinical outcomes: LOS, ICU upgrade, or mortality. Multivariate regression analysis controlled for age, sex, BMI, HbA1c level, renal function, liver function, CRP, d-dimer, and ferritin showed no difference in outcomes among groups. Conclusion: Given high-risk factors in our population, despite efforts from the glycemic management teams, it’s unsurprising no differences in clinical outcomes in mortality and length of stay.

Keywords: glycemic management, strategies, hospitalized, SARS-CoV-2, outcomes

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Authors: Dua Hişam, Serhat İkizoğlu

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Identifying the problem behind balance disorder is one of the most interesting topics in the medical literature. This study has considerably enhanced the development of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms applying multiple machine learning (ML) models to sensory data on gait collected from humans to classify between normal people and those suffering from Vestibular System (VS) problems. Although AI is widely utilized as a diagnostic tool in medicine, AI models have not been used to perform feature extraction and identify VS disorders through training on raw data. In this study, three machine learning (ML) models, the Random Forest Classifier (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), have been trained to detect VS disorder, and the performance comparison of the algorithms has been made using accuracy, recall, precision, and f1-score. With an accuracy of 95.28 %, Random Forest Classifier (RF) was the most accurate model.

Keywords: vestibular disorder, machine learning, random forest classifier, k-nearest neighbor, extreme gradient boosting

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: M. Khalid, G. N. Singh

Abstract:

In this paper, we have considered the problems of estimation for the population mean on current (second) occasion in two-occasion successive sampling under random non-response situations. Some modified exponential type estimators have been proposed and their properties are studied under the assumptions that the number of sampling unit follows a discrete distribution due to random non-response situations. The performances of the proposed estimators are compared with linear combinations of two estimators, (a) sample mean estimator for fresh sample and (b) ratio estimator for matched sample under the complete response situations. Results are demonstrated through empirical studies which present the effectiveness of the proposed estimators. Suitable recommendations have been made to the survey practitioners.

Keywords: modified exponential estimator, successive sampling, random non-response, auxiliary variable, bias, mean square error

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Hicham Salhi, Mohamed Si-Ameur, Nadjib Chafai

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Natural convection of a nanofluid consisting of water and nanoparticles (Ag or TiO2) in an inclined enclosure cavity, has been studied numerically, heated by a (random temperature, based on the random function). The governing equations are solved numerically using the finite-volume. Results are presented in the form of streamlines, isotherms, and average Nusselt number. In addition, a parametric study is carried out to examine explicitly the volume fraction effects of nanoparticles (Ψ= 0.1, 0.2), the Rayleigh number (Ra=103, 104, 105, 106),the inclination angle of the cavity( égale à 0°, 30°, 45°, 90°, 135°, 180°), types of temperature (constant ,random), types of (NF) (Ag andTiO2). The results reveal that (NPs) addition remarkably enhances heat transfer in the cavity especially for (Ψ= 0.2). Besides, the effect of inclination angle and type of temperature is more pronounced at higher Rayleigh number.

Keywords: nanofluid, natural convection, inclined cavity, random temperature, finite-volume

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Reza Miresmaeili, Asghar Heydari Astaraee, Fereshteh Dolati

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In the present study, an analytical model based on dislocation density model was developed to simulate grain refinement in surface mechanical attrition treatment (SMAT). The correlation between SMAT time and development in plastic strain on one hand, and dislocation density evolution, on the other hand, was established to simulate the grain refinement in SMAT. A dislocation density-based constitutive material law was implemented using VUHARD subroutine. A random sequence of shots is taken into consideration for multiple impacts model using Python programming language by utilizing a random function. The simulation technique was to model each impact in a separate run and then transferring the results of each run as initial conditions for the next run (impact). The developed Finite Element (FE) model of multiple impacts describes the coverage evolution in SMAT. Simulations were run to coverage levels as high as 4500%. It is shown that the coverage implemented in the FE model is equal to the experimental coverage. It is depicted that numerical SMAT coverage parameter is adequately conforming to the well-known Avrami model. Comparison between numerical results and experimental measurements for residual stresses and depth of deformation layers confirms the performance of the established FE model for surface engineering evaluations in SMA treatment. X-ray diffraction (XRD) studies of grain refinement, including resultant grain size and dislocation density, were conducted to validate the established model. The full width at half-maximum in XRD profiles can be used to measure the grain size. Numerical results and experimental measurements of grain refinement illustrate good agreement and show the capability of established FE model to predict the gradient microstructure in SMA treatment.

Keywords: dislocation density, grain refinement, severe plastic deformation, simulation, surface mechanical attrition treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Jiwan Kumar, Pooja, Sandeep Negi, Anjum Rouf, Amit Kumar, Naveen Lakra

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In modern times where, health issues are increasing day by day, breast cancer is also one of them, which is very crucial and really important to find in the early stages. Doctors can use this model in order to tell their patients whether a cancer is not harmful (benign) or harmful (malignant). We have used the knowledge of machine learning in order to produce the model. we have used algorithms like Logistic Regression, Random forest, support Vector Classifier, Bayesian Network and Radial Basis Function. We tried to use the data of crucial parts and show them the results in pictures in order to make it easier for doctors. By doing this, we're making ML better at finding breast cancer, which can lead to saving more lives and better health care.

Keywords: Bayesian network, radial basis function, ensemble learning, understandable, data making better, random forest, logistic regression, breast cancer

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Authors: Ja-Keoung Koo, Kensuke Nakamura, Hyohun Kim, Dongwha Shin, Yeonseok Kim, Ji-Su Ahn, Byung-Woo Hong

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The machine learning techniques based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) have been actively developed and successfully applied to a variety of image analysis tasks including reconstruction, noise reduction, resolution enhancement, segmentation, motion estimation, object recognition. The classical visual information processing that ranges from low level tasks to high level ones has been widely developed in the deep learning framework. It is generally considered as a challenging problem to derive visual interpretation from high dimensional imagery data. A CNN is a class of feed-forward artificial neural network that usually consists of deep layers the connections of which are established by a series of non-linear operations. The CNN architecture is known to be shift invariant due to its shared weights and translation invariance characteristics. However, it is often computationally intractable to optimize the network in particular with a large number of convolution layers due to a large number of unknowns to be optimized with respect to the training set that is generally required to be large enough to effectively generalize the model under consideration. It is also necessary to limit the size of convolution kernels due to the computational expense despite of the recent development of effective parallel processing machinery, which leads to the use of the constantly small size of the convolution kernels throughout the deep CNN architecture. However, it is often desired to consider different scales in the analysis of visual features at different layers in the network. Thus, we propose a CNN model where different sizes of the convolution kernels are applied at each layer based on the random projection. We apply random filters with varying sizes and associate the filter responses with scalar weights that correspond to the standard deviation of the random filters. We are allowed to use large number of random filters with the cost of one scalar unknown for each filter. The computational cost in the back-propagation procedure does not increase with the larger size of the filters even though the additional computational cost is required in the computation of convolution in the feed-forward procedure. The use of random kernels with varying sizes allows to effectively analyze image features at multiple scales leading to a better generalization. The robustness and effectiveness of the proposed CNN based on random kernels are demonstrated by numerical experiments where the quantitative comparison of the well-known CNN architectures and our models that simply replace the convolution kernels with the random filters is performed. The experimental results indicate that our model achieves better performance with less number of unknown weights. The proposed algorithm has a high potential in the application of a variety of visual tasks based on the CNN framework. Acknowledgement—This work was supported by the MISP (Ministry of Science and ICT), Korea, under the National Program for Excellence in SW (20170001000011001) supervised by IITP, and NRF-2014R1A2A1A11051941, NRF2017R1A2B4006023.

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural network, random kernel, random projection, dimensionality reduction, object recognition

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Authors: Ashok Kalagura

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This paper presents a data-mining model for fault-zone identification of flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS)-based transmission line including a thyristor-controlled series compensator (TCSC) and unified power-flow controller (UPFC), using ensemble decision trees. Given the randomness in the ensemble of decision trees stacked inside the random forests model, it provides an effective decision on the fault-zone identification. Half-cycle post-fault current and voltage samples from the fault inception are used as an input vector against target output ‘1’ for the fault after TCSC/UPFC and ‘1’ for the fault before TCSC/UPFC for fault-zone identification. The algorithm is tested on simulated fault data with wide variations in operating parameters of the power system network, including noisy environment providing a reliability measure of 99% with faster response time (3/4th cycle from fault inception). The results of the presented approach using the RF model indicate the reliable identification of the fault zone in FACTS-based transmission lines.

Keywords: distance relaying, fault-zone identification, random forests, RFs, support vector machine, SVM, thyristor-controlled series compensator, TCSC, unified power-flow controller, UPFC

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Authors: Shahul Hamid Khan, S. Santhosh, Abhinav Kumar Sharma

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Environmental performance along with social performance is becoming vital factors for industries to achieve global standards. With a good environmental policy global industries are differentiating them from their competitors. This paper concentrates on multi stage, multi product and multi period manufacturing network. Bi-objective mathematical models for total cost and total emission for the entire forward supply chain are considered. Here five different problems are considered by varying the number of suppliers, manufacturers, and environmental levels, for illustrating the taken mathematical model. GA, and Random search are used for finding the optimal solution. The input parameters of the optimal solution are used to find the tradeoff between the initial investment by the industry and the long term benefit of the environment.

Keywords: closed loop supply chain, genetic algorithm, random search, green supply chain

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Authors: M. Fadlallah, G. Ghibaudo, C. G. Theodorou

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The dynamic variation in memory devices such as the Static Random Access Memory can give errors in read or write operations. In this paper, the effect of low-frequency and random telegraph noise on the dynamic variation of one SRAM cell is detailed. The effect on circuit noise, speed, and length of time of processing is examined, using the Supply Read Retention Voltage and the Read Static Noise Margin. New test run methods are also developed. The obtained results simulation shows the importance of noise caused by dynamic variation, and the impact of Random Telegraph noise on SRAM variability is examined by evaluating the statistical distributions of Random Telegraph noise amplitude in the pull-up, pull-down. The threshold voltage mismatch between neighboring cell transistors due to intrinsic fluctuations typically contributes to larger reductions in static noise margin. Also the contribution of each of the SRAM transistor to total dynamic variation has been identified.

Keywords: low-frequency noise, random telegraph noise, dynamic variation, SRRV

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Authors: Tan Zhang, Zhongjian Wang, Jack Xin, Zhiwen Zhang

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We aim to efficiently compute the spreading speeds of reaction-diffusion-advection (RDA) fronts in divergence-free random flows under the Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov (KPP) nonlinearity. We study a stochastic interacting particle method (IPM) for the reduced principal eigenvalue (Lyapunov exponent) problem of an associated linear advection-diffusion operator with spatially random coefficients. The Fourier representation of the random advection field and the Feynman-Kac (FK) formula of the principal eigenvalue (Lyapunov exponent) form the foundation of our method implemented as a genetic evolution algorithm. The particles undergo advection-diffusion and mutation/selection through a fitness function originated in the FK semigroup. We analyze the convergence of the algorithm based on operator splitting and present numerical results on representative flows such as 2D cellular flow and 3D Arnold-Beltrami-Childress (ABC) flow under random perturbations. The 2D examples serve as a consistency check with semi-Lagrangian computation. The 3D results demonstrate that IPM, being mesh-free and self-adaptive, is simple to implement and efficient for computing front spreading speeds in the advection-dominated regime for high-dimensional random flows on unbounded domains where no truncation is needed.

Keywords: KPP front speeds, random flows, Feynman-Kac semigroups, interacting particle method, convergence analysis

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Authors: Weisi Guo

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It is well established that there may be running correlations in sequential exam marks due to students sitting in the order of course registration patterns. As such, a random and non-sequential sampling of exam marks is a standard recommended practice. Here, the paper examines a large number of exam data stretching several years across different modules to see the degree to which it is true. Using the real mark distribution as a generative process, it was found that random simulated data had no more sequential randomness than the real data. That is to say, the running correlations that one often observes are statistically identical to chance. Digging deeper, it was found that some high running correlations have students that indeed share a common course history and make similar mistakes. However, at the statistical scale of a module question, the combined effect is statistically similar to the random shuffling of papers. As such, there may not be the need to take random samples for marks, but it still remains good practice to mark papers in a random sequence to reduce the repetitive marking bias and errors.

Keywords: data analysis, empirical study, exams, marking

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Authors: Jayaprakash Kar, Daniyal M. Alghazzawi

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The article proposes a novel construction of signcryption scheme with provable security which is most suited to implement on smart card. It is secure in random oracle model and the security relies on Decisional Bilinear Diffie-Hellmann Problem. The proposed scheme is secure against adaptive chosen ciphertext attack (indistiguishbility) and adaptive chosen message attack (unforgebility). Also, it is inspired by zero-knowledge proof. The two most important security goals for smart card are Confidentiality and authenticity. These functions are performed in one logical step in low computational cost.

Keywords: random oracle, provable security, unforgebility, smart card

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Authors: James Purnama, Riri Fitri Sari

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We investigate the machine learning algorithm selection problem in the term of a depth image based eye gaze estimation, with respect to its essential difficulty in reducing the number of required training samples and duration time of training. Statistics based prediction accuracy are increasingly used to assess and evaluate prediction or estimation in gaze estimation. This article evaluates Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and R-Squared statistical analysis to assess machine learning methods on depth camera data for gaze estimation. There are 4 machines learning methods have been evaluated: Random Forest Regression, Regression Tree, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Regression. The experiment results show that the Random Forest Regression has the lowest RMSE and the highest R-Squared, which means that it is the best among other methods.

Keywords: gaze estimation, gaze tracking, eye tracking, kinect, regression model, orange python

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Authors: Nikolaos Simantiris, Markos Avlonitis

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This work builds a simulation platform, modeling the spatial diffusion of the invasive species Callinectes sapidus (blue crab) as a random walk, incorporating also generation, fatality, and fishing rates modeling the time evolution of its population. Antinioti lagoon in West Greece was used as a testbed for applying the simulation model. Field measurements from June 2020 to June 2021 on the lagoon’s setting, bathymetry, and blue crab juveniles provided the initial population simulation of blue crabs, as well as biological parameters from the current literature were used to calibrate simulation parameters. The scope of this study is to render the authors able to predict the evolution of the blue crab population in confined environments of the Ionian Islands region in West Greece. The first result of the simulation experiments shows the possibility for a robust prediction for blue crab population evolution in the Antinioti lagoon.

Keywords: antinioti lagoon, blue crab, stochastic simulation, random walk

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Prashant Verma

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Commercial banks are facing immense pressure, including financial disintermediation, interest rate volatility and digital ways of finance. Retaining an existing customer is 5 to 25 less expensive than acquiring a new one. This paper explores customer churn prediction, based on various statistical & machine learning models and uses under-sampling, to improve the predictive power of these models. The results show that out of the various machine learning models, Random Forest which predicts the churn with 78% accuracy, has been found to be the most powerful model for the scenario. Customer vintage, customer’s age, average balance, occupation code, population code, average withdrawal amount, and an average number of transactions were found to be the variables with high predictive power for the churn prediction model. The model can be deployed by the commercial banks in order to avoid the customer churn so that they may retain the funds, which are kept by savings bank (SB) customers. The article suggests a customized campaign to be initiated by commercial banks to avoid SB customer churn. Hence, by giving better customer satisfaction and experience, the commercial banks can limit the customer churn and maintain their deposits.

Keywords: savings bank, customer churn, customer retention, random forests, machine learning, under-sampling

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Authors: Arezoo Heidary, Abolfazl Mirzazadeh, Aref Gholami-Qadikolaei

Abstract:

In the business environment it is very common that a lot received may not be equal to quantity ordered. in this work, a random disturbance in a received quantity is considered. It is assumed a maximum allowable limit for storage space and inventory investment.The impact of lead time and ordering cost reductions once they act dependently is also investigated. Further, considering a mixture of back order and lost sales for allowable shortage system, the effect of investment on reducing lost sale rate is analyzed. For the proposed control system, a Lagrangian method is applied in order to solve the problem and an algorithmic procedure is utilized to achieve optimal solution with the global minimum expected cost. Finally, proves on concavity and convexity of the model in the decision variables are shown.

Keywords: stochastic inventory system, lead time, ordering cost, lost sale rate, inventory constraints, random disturbance

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