Search results for: spatial autoregression model

Authors: Abdulrazzak Akroot, Lutfu Namli

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Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are one of the most promising technologies since they can produce electricity directly from fuel and generate a lot of waste heat that is generally used in the gas turbines to promote the general performance of the thermal power plant. In this study, the energy, and exergy analysis of a solid oxide fuel cell/gas turbine hybrid system was proceed in MATLAB to examine the performance characteristics of the hybrid system in two different configurations: anode-supported model and electrolyte-supported model. The obtained results indicate that if the fuel utilization factor reduces from 0.85 to 0.65, the overall efficiency decreases from 64.61 to 59.27% for the anode-supported model whereas it reduces from 58.3 to 56.4% for the electrolyte-supported model. Besides, the overall exergy reduces from 53.86 to 44.06% for the anode-supported model whereas it reduces from 39.96 to 33.94% for the electrolyte-supported model. Furthermore, increasing the air utilization factor has a negative impact on the electrical power output and the efficiencies of the overall system due to the reduction in the O₂ concentration at the cathode-electrolyte interface.

Keywords: solid oxide fuel cell, anode-supported model, electrolyte-supported model, energy analysis, exergy analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

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The purpose of work is to study the phenomenon of agitation of storm waves at basin caused by different directions of waves relative to the current provision thrown numerical model based on the equation in shallow water using Boussinesq model MIKE 21 BW. According to the diminishing effect of penetration of a wave optimal solution will be available to be reproduced in reduced model. Another alternative arrangement throws will be proposed to reduce the agitation and the effects of the swell reflection caused by the penetration of waves in the harbor.

Keywords: agitation, Boussinesq equations, combination, harbor

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: Matthew Perkins-McVey

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The pharmacological arm of mental health treatment is in a state of crisis. The promises of the Prozac century have fallen short; the number of different therapeutically significant medications that successfully complete development shrinks with every passing year, and the demand for better treatments only grows. Answering these hardships is a renewed optimism concerning the efficacy of controlled psychedelic therapy, a renaissance that has seen the return of a familiar concept: intoxication as a model psychosis. First appearing in the mid-19th century and featuring in an array of 20th century efforts in psychedelic research, model psychosis has, once more, come to the foreground of psychedelic research. And yet, little has been made of where this peculiar, perhaps even intoxicatingly mad, the idea originates. This paper seeks to uncover the conceptual foundations underlying the early emergence of model psychosis. This narrative will explore the conceptual foundations behind their independent development of the concept of model psychosis, considering their similarities and differences. In the course of this examination, it becomes apparent that the definition of endogenous psychosis, which formed in the mid-19th century, is the direct product of emerging understandings of exogenous psychosis, or model psychosis. Ultimately, the goal is not merely to understand how and why model psychosis became thinkable but to examine how seemingly secondary concept changes can engender new ways of being a psychiatric subject.

Keywords: history of psychiatry, model psychosis, history of medicine, history of science

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Jang kyun Cho, Jeong-dong Lee

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The advent of the Internet, mobile communications, and social network services has stimulated social interactions among consumers, allowing people to affect one another’s innovation adoptions by exchanging information more frequently and more quickly. Previous diffusion models, such as the Bass model, however, face limitations in reflecting such recent phenomena in society. These models are weak in their ability to model interactions between agents; they model aggregated-level behaviors only. The agent based model, which is an alternative to the aggregate model, is good for individual modeling, but it is still not based on an economic perspective of social interactions so far. This study assumes the presence of social utility from other consumers in the adoption of innovation and investigates the effect of individual interactions on innovation diffusion by developing a new model called the interaction-based diffusion model. By comparing this model with previous diffusion models, the study also examines how the proposed model explains innovation diffusion from the perspective of economics. In addition, the study recommends the use of a small-world network topology instead of cellular automata to describe innovation diffusion. This study develops a model based on individual preference and heterogeneous social interactions using utility specification, which is expandable and, thus, able to encompass various issues in diffusion research, such as reservation price. Furthermore, the study proposes a new framework to forecast aggregated-level market demand from individual level modeling. The model also exhibits a good fit to real market data. It is expected that the study will contribute to our understanding of the innovation diffusion process through its microeconomic theoretical approach.

Keywords: innovation diffusion, agent based model, small-world network, demand forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 336

Authors: Fan Yang, Ye-Lu Wang, Yang Zhao

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The dynamic load allowance, as an application result of the vehicle-bridge coupled vibration theory, is an important parameter for bridge design and evaluation. Based on the coupled vehicle-bridge vibration theory, the current work establishes a full girder model of a dynamic load allowance, selects a planar five-degree-of-freedom three-axis vehicle model, solves the coupled vehicle-bridge dynamic response using the APDL language in the spatial finite element program ANSYS, selects the pivot point 2 sections as the representative of the negative moment section, and analyzes the effects of parameters such as travel speed, unevenness, vehicle frequency, span diameter, span number and forced displacement of the support on the negative moment dynamic load allowance through orthogonal tests. The influence of parameters such as vehicle speed, unevenness, vehicle frequency, span diameter, span number, and forced displacement of the support on the negative moment dynamic load allowance is analyzed by orthogonal tests, and the influence law of each influencing parameter is summarized. It is found that the effects of vehicle frequency, unevenness, and speed on the negative moment dynamic load allowance are significant, among which vehicle frequency has the greatest effect on the negative moment dynamic load allowance; the effects of span number and span diameter on the negative moment dynamic load allowance are relatively small; the effects of forced displacement of the support on the negative moment dynamic load allowance are negligible.

Keywords: continuous T-girder bridge, dynamic load allowance, sensitivity analysis, vehicle-bridge coupling

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Retius Chifurira

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Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Hadush Kidane Meresa

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The hydrological extremes frequency analysis is the foundation for the hydraulic engineering design, flood protection, drought management and water resources management and planning to utilize the available water resource to meet the desired objectives of different organizations and sectors in a country. This spatial variation of the statistical characteristics of the extreme flood and drought events are key practice for regional flood and drought analysis and mitigation management. For different hydro-climate of the regions, where the data set is short, scarcity, poor quality and insufficient, the regionalization methods are applied to transfer at-site data to a region. This study aims in regional high and low flow frequency analysis for Poland River Basins. Due to high frequent occurring of hydrological extremes in the region and rapid water resources development in this basin have caused serious concerns over the flood and drought magnitude and frequencies of the river in Poland. The magnitude and frequency result of high and low flows in the basin is needed for flood and drought planning, management and protection at present and future. Hydrological homogeneous high and low flow regions are formed by the cluster analysis of site characteristics, using the hierarchical and C- mean clustering and PCA method. Statistical tests for regional homogeneity are utilized, by Discordancy and Heterogeneity measure tests. In compliance with results of the tests, the region river basin has been divided into ten homogeneous regions. In this study, frequency analysis of high and low flows using AM for high flow and 7-day minimum low flow series is conducted using six statistical distributions. The use of L-moment and LL-moment method showed a homogeneous region over entire province with Generalized logistic (GLOG), Generalized extreme value (GEV), Pearson type III (P-III), Generalized Pareto (GPAR), Weibull (WEI) and Power (PR) distributions as the regional drought and flood frequency distributions. The 95% percentile and Flow duration curves of 1, 7, 10, 30 days have been plotted for 10 stations. However, the cluster analysis performed two regions in west and east of the province where L-moment and LL-moment method demonstrated the homogeneity of the regions and GLOG and Pearson Type III (PIII) distributions as regional frequency distributions for each region, respectively. The spatial variation and regional frequency distribution of flood and drought characteristics for 10 best catchment from the whole region was selected and beside the main variable (streamflow: high and low) we used variables which are more related to physiographic and drainage characteristics for identify and delineate homogeneous pools and to derive best regression models for ungauged sites. Those are mean annual rainfall, seasonal flow, average slope, NDVI, aspect, flow length, flow direction, maximum soil moisture, elevation, and drainage order. The regional high-flow or low-flow relationship among one streamflow characteristics with (AM or 7-day mean annual low flows) some basin characteristics is developed using Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) and Generalized Least Square (GLS) regression model, providing a simple and effective method for estimation of flood and drought of desired return periods for ungauged catchments.

Keywords: flood , drought, frequency, magnitude, regionalization, stochastic, ungauged, Poland

Procedia PDF Downloads 592

Authors: Aemro Tazeze Terefe, Mengistu K. Aredo, Abule M. Workagegnehu, Wondimagegn M. Tesfaye

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Climate-induced shocks have been shown to reduce agricultural production and cause fluctuation in output in developing countries. When livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture, climate-induced shocks translate into consumption shocks. Despite the substantial improvements in household consumption, climate-induced shocks, and other factors adversely affect consumption dynamics at the household level in Ethiopia. Therefore, household consumption dynamics in the context of climate-induced shocks help to guide resilience capacity and establish appropriate interventions and programs. The research employed three-round panel data based on the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey with spatial rainfall data to define unique measures of rainfall variability. The linear dynamic panel model results show that the lagged value of consumption, market shocks, and rainfall variability positively affected consumption dynamics. In contrast, production shocks, temperature, and amount of rainfall had a negative relationship. Coping strategies mitigate adverse climate-induced shocks on consumption aftershocks that smooth consumption over time. Support to increase the resilience capacity of households can involve efforts to make existing livelihoods and forms of production or reductions in the vulnerability of households. Therefore, government interventions are mandatory for asset accumulation agendas that support household coping strategies and respond to shocks. In addition, the dynamic linkage between consumption and significant socioeconomic and institutional factors should be taken into account to minimize the effect of climate-induced shocks on consumption dynamics.

Keywords: climate shock, Ethiopia, fixed-effect model, food security

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hyunwoo Park, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

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The purpose of this study is providing an improved mode choice model considering parameters including age grouping of prime-aged and old age. In this study, 2010 Household Travel Survey data were used and improper samples were removed through the analysis. Chosen alternative, date of birth, mode, origin code, destination code, departure time, and arrival time are considered from Household Travel Survey. By preprocessing data, travel time, travel cost, mode, and ratio of people aged 45 to 55 years, 55 to 65 years and over 65 years were calculated. After the manipulation, the mode choice model was constructed using LIMDEP by maximum likelihood estimation. A significance test was conducted for nine parameters, three age groups for three modes. Then the test was conducted again for the mode choice model with significant parameters, travel cost variable and travel time variable. As a result of the model estimation, as the age increases, the preference for the car decreases and the preference for the bus increases. This study is meaningful in that the individual and households characteristics are applied to the aggregate model.

Keywords: age grouping, aging, mode choice model, multinomial logit model

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Li Xiaoge, Wang Chaodong

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We introduce the first Chinese Coreference Resolution Model based on BERT (CCRM-BERT) and show that it significantly outperforms all previous work. The key idea is to consider the features of the mention, such as part of speech, width of spans, distance between spans, etc. And the influence of each features on the model is analyzed. The model computes mention embeddings that combine BERT with features. Compared to the existing state-of-the-art span-ranking approach, our model significantly improves accuracy on the Chinese OntoNotes benchmark.

Keywords: BERT, coreference resolution, deep learning, nature language processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 203

Authors: Awol Seid Ebrie

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HIV results as an incurable disease, AIDS. After a person is infected with virus, the virus gradually destroys all the infection fighting cells called CD4 cells and makes the individual susceptible to opportunistic infections which cause severe or fatal health problems. Several studies show that the CD4 cells count is the most determinant indicator of the effectiveness of the treatment or progression of the disease. The objective of this paper is to investigate the progression of the disease over time among patient under HAART treatment. Two main approaches of the generalized multilevel ordinal models; namely the proportional odds model and the nonproportional odds model have been applied to the HAART data. Also, the multilevel part of both models includes random intercepts and random coefficients. In general, four models are explored in the analysis and then the models are compared using the deviance information criteria. Of these models, the random coefficients nonproportional odds model is selected as the best model for the HAART data used as it has the smallest DIC value. The selected model shows that the progression of the disease increases as the time under the treatment increases. In addition, it reveals that gender, baseline clinical stage and functional status of the patient have a significant association with the progression of the disease.

Keywords: nonproportional odds model, proportional odds model, random coefficients model, random intercepts model

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Authors: Babak Bashari Rad

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A metamorphic computer virus uses different code transformation techniques to mutate its body in duplicated instances. Characteristics and function of new instances are mostly similar to their parents, but they cannot be easily detected by the majority of antivirus in market, as they depend on string signature-based detection techniques. The purpose of this research is to propose a Hidden Markov Model for classification of metamorphic viruses in executable files. In the proposed solution, portable executable files are inspected to extract the instructions opcodes needed for the examination of code. A Hidden Markov Model trained on portable executable files is employed to classify the metamorphic viruses of the same family. The proposed model is able to generate and recognize common statistical features of mutated code. The model has been evaluated by examining the model on a test data set. The performance of the model has been practically tested and evaluated based on False Positive Rate, Detection Rate and Overall Accuracy. The result showed an acceptable performance with high average of 99.7% Detection Rate.

Keywords: malware classification, computer virus classification, metamorphic virus, metamorphic malware, Hidden Markov Model

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: Heung Sun Yoon, Jong Tae Kim

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In this paper, we present an activity diagram model for double-loop control self-adaptive braking system. Since activity diagram helps to improve visibility of self-adaption, we can easily find where improvement is needed on double-loop control. Double-loop control is adopted since the design conditions and actual conditions can be different. The system is reconfigured in runtime by using double-loop control. We simulated to verify and validate our model by using MATLAB. We compared single-loop control model with double-loop control model. Simulation results show that double-loop control provides more consistent brake power control than single-loop control.

Keywords: activity diagram, automotive, braking system, double-loop, self-adaptive, UML, vehicle

Procedia PDF Downloads 405

Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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Every year, fog formation over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) of Indian region during the winter months of December and January is believed to create numerous hazards, inconvenience, and economic loss to the inhabitants of this densely populated region of Indian subcontinent. The aim of the paper is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of winter fog over IGPs. Long term ground observations of visibility and other meteorological parameters (1971-2010) have been analyzed to understand the formation of fog phenomena and its relevance during the peak winter months of January and December over IGP of India. In order to examine the temporal variability, time series and trend analysis were carried out by using the Mann-Kendall Statistical test. Trend analysis performed by using the Mann-Kendall test, accepts the alternate hypothesis with 95% confidence level indicating that there exists a trend. Kendall tau’s statistics showed that there exists a positive correlation between time series and fog frequency. Further, the Theil and Sen’s median slope estimate showed that the magnitude of trend is positive. Magnitude is higher during January compared to December for the entire IGP except in December when it is high over the western IGP. Decade wise time series analysis revealed that there has been continuous increase in fog days. The net overall increase of 99 % was observed over IGP in last four decades. Diurnal variability and average daily persistence were computed by using descriptive statistical techniques. Geo-statistical analysis of fog was carried out to understand the spatial variability of fog. Geo-statistical analysis of fog revealed that IGP is a high fog prone zone with fog occurrence frequency of more than 66% days during the study period. Diurnal variability indicates the peak occurrence of fog is between 06:00 and 10:00 local time and average daily fog persistence extends to 5 to 7 hours during the peak winter season. The results would offer a new perspective to take proactive measures in reducing the irreparable damage that could be caused due to changing trends of fog.

Keywords: fog, climatology, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis, spatial variability, temporal variability, visibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Sri E. Wati, D. Roswidyatmoko, N. Maslahatun, Gunawan, Andhika B. Taji

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Natural resource is the main sources to fulfill human needs. Its utilization must consider not only human prosperity but also sustainability. Balance of natural resources is a tool to manage natural wealth and to control land use change. This tool is needed to organize land use planning as stated on spatial plan in a certain region. Balance of natural resources can be calculated by comparing two-series of natural resource data obtained at different year. In this case, four years data period of land and forest were used (2010 and 2014). Land use data were acquired through satellite image interpretation and field checking. By means of GIS analysis, its result was then assessed with land use plan. It is intended to evaluate whether existing land use is suitable with land use plan. If it is improper, what kind of efforts and policies must be done to overcome the situation. Subosukawonosraten is rapid developed areas in Central Java Province. This region consists of seven regencies/cities which are Sukoharjo Regency, Boyolali Regency, Surakarta City, Karanganyar Regency, Wonogiri Regency, Sragen Regency, and Klaten Regency. This region is regarding to several former areas under Karasidenan Surakarta and their location is adjacent to Surakarta. Balance of forest resources show that width of forest area is not significantly changed. Some land uses within the area are slightly changed. Some rice field areas are converted into settlement (0.03%) whereas water bodies become vacant areas (0.09%). On the other hand, balance of land resources state that there are many land use changes in this region. Width area of rice field decreases 428 hectares and more than 50% of them have been transformed into settlement area and 11.21% is converted into buildings such as factories, hotels, and other infrastructures. It occurs mostly in Sragen, Sukoharjo, and Karanganyar Regency. The results illustrate that land use change in this region is mostly influenced by increasing of population number. Some agricultural lands have been converted into built-up area since demand of settlement, industrial area, and other infrastructures also increases. Unfortunately, recent utilization of more than a half of total area is not appropriate with land use plan declared in spatial planning document. It means, local government shall develop a strict regulation and law enforcement related to any violation in land use management.

Keywords: balance, forest, land, spatial plan

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Yilei Yu

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Modernism, emerging in the Western world of the 20th century, attempted to create a universal international style, which pulled the architectural and social systems created by classicism back to an initial pure state. However, out of the introspection of the Modernism, Regionalism attempted to restore a humanistic environment and create flexible buildings during the 1950s. Meanwhile, as the first generation of architects came back, the wind of the Regionalism blew to Taiwan. However, with the increasing of political influence and the tightening of free creative space, from the second half of the 1950s to the 1980s, the "real" Regional Architecture, which should have taken roots in Taiwan, becomes the "fake" Regional Architecture filled with the oriental charm. Through the Comparative Method, which includes description, interpretation, juxtaposition, and comparison, this study analyses the difference of the style of the Modernist Chinese Architecture between the period before the 1980s and the after. The paper aims at exploring the development of Regionalism Architecture in Taiwan, which includes three parts. First, the burgeoning period of the "modernist Chinese architecture" in Taiwan was the beginning of the Chinese Nationalist Party's coming to Taiwan to consolidate political power. The architecture of the "Ming and Qing Dynasty Palace Revival Style" dominated the architectural circles in Taiwan. These superficial "regional buildings" have nearly no combination with the local customs of Taiwan, which is difficult to evoke the social identity. Second, in the late 1970s, the second generation of architects headed by Baode Han began focusing on the research and preservation of traditional Taiwanese architecture, and creating buildings combined the terroirs of Taiwan through the imitation of styles. However, some scholars have expressed regret that very few regionalist architectural works that appeared in the 1980s can respond specifically to regional conditions and forms of construction. Instead, most of them are vocabulary-led representations. Third, during the 1990s, by the end of the period of martial law, community building gradually emerged, which made the object of Taiwan's architectural concern gradually extended to the folk and ethnic groups. In the Yilan area, there are many architects who care about the local environment, such as the Field office Architects. Compared with the hollow regionality of the passionate national spirits that emerged during the martial law period, the local practice of the architect team in Yilan can better link the real local environmental life and reflect the true regionality. In conclusion, with the local practice case of the huge construction team in Yilan area, this paper focuses on the Spatial Practice by the Field office Architects to explore the spatial representation of the space and the practical enlightenment in the process of modernist Chinese architecture development in Taiwan.

Keywords: regionalism, modernism, Chinese architecture, political landscape, spatial representation

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Authors: Ahmad Zaini, F. Muhammad Reza Hadafi, Surya Sumpeno, Muhtadin, Mochamad Hariadi

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The lack of information about museum’s collection reduces the number of visits of museum. Museum’s revitalization is an urgent activity to increase the number of visits. The research's roadmap is building a web-based application that visualizes museum in the virtual form including museum's statue reconstruction in the form of 3D. This paper describes implementation of three-dimensional model reconstruction method based on light-strip pattern on the museum statue using 3D scanner. Noise removal, alignment, meshing and refinement model's processes is implemented to get a better 3D object reconstruction. Model’s texture derives from surface texture mapping between object's images with reconstructed 3D model. Accuracy test of dimension of the model is measured by calculating relative error of virtual model dimension compared against the original object. The result is realistic three-dimensional model textured with relative error around 4.3% to 5.8%.

Keywords: 3D reconstruction, light pattern structure, texture mapping, museum

Procedia PDF Downloads 456

Authors: Amal Hentati, Mbarka Selmi, Tarek Kormi, Julien Baroth, Barthelemy Harthong

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The impact of uncertainties on the performance assessment of shallow foundations is often significant. The need of the geotechnical engineers to a more objective and rigorous description of soil variations permitting to quantify these uncertainties and to incorporate them into calculation methods led to the development of reliability approaches. In this context, a mechanical-reliability coupling was developed in this paper, using a program coded in Matlab and the finite element software Abaqus, for the bearing capacity assessment of shallow foundations. The reliability analysis, based on the finite element method, assumed both soil cohesion and friction angle as uncertain parameters characterized by normal or lognormal probability distributions. The inherent spatial variability of both soil properties was, then, taken into account using 1D stationary random fields. The application of the proposed methodology to a shallow foundation subjected to a centered vertical loading permitted to highlight the proposed process interest. Findings proved the insufficiency of the conventional approach to predict the foundation failure and a high sensitivity of the ultimate loads to the soil properties uncertainties, mainly those related to the friction angle, was noted. Moreover, an asymmetry of both displacement and velocity fields was obtained.

Keywords: mechanical-reliability coupling, finite element method, shallow foundation, random fields, spatial variability

Procedia PDF Downloads 654

Authors: Mengke Zhan, Cheng-Gang Xie, Jian-Jun Shu

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A venturi flowmeter is a common device used in multiphase flow rate measurement in the upstream oil and gas industry. Having a robust computational model for multiphase flow in a venturi is desirable for understanding the gas-liquid and fluid-pipe interactions and predicting pressure and phase distributions under various flow conditions. A steady Eulerian-Eulerian framework is used to simulate upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical venturi. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements of venturi differential pressure and chord-averaged gas holdup in the venturi throat section. The choice of turbulence model is nontrivial in the multiphase flow modelling in a venturi. The performance cross-comparison of the k-ϵ model, Reynolds stress model (RSM) and shear-stress transport (SST) k-ω turbulence model is made in the study. In terms of accuracy and computational cost, the SST k-ω turbulence model is observed to be the most efficient.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), gas-liquid flow, turbulence modelling, venturi

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Kyeong Hoon Park, Taiji Mazuda

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High damping rubber (HDR) bearings are dissipating devices mainly used in seismic isolation systems and have a great damping performance. Although many studies have been conducted on the dynamic model of HDR bearings, few models can reflect phenomena such as dependency of experienced shear strain on initial history. In order to develop a model that can represent the dependency of experienced shear strain of HDR by Mullins effect, dynamic loading test was conducted using HDR specimen. The reaction of HDR was measured by applying a horizontal vibration using a hybrid actuator under a constant vertical load. Dynamic program analysis was also performed after dynamic loading test. The dynamic model applied in program analysis is a bilinear type double-target model. This model is modified from typical bilinear model. This model can express the nonlinear characteristics related to the initial history of HDR bearings. Based on the dynamic loading test and program analysis results, equivalent stiffness and equivalent damping ratio were calculated to evaluate the mechanical properties of HDR and the feasibility of the bilinear type double-target model was examined.

Keywords: base-isolation, bilinear model, high damping rubber, loading test

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Anurag Savarnya

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The reliability of the various parts of electric mining shovel has been assessed through the application of Weibull Model. The study was initiated to find reliability of components of electric mining shovel. The paper aims to optimize the reliability of components and increase the life cycle of component. A multilevel decomposition of the electric mining shovel was done and maintenance records were used to evaluate the failure data and appropriate system characterization was done to model the system in terms of reasonable number of components. The approach used develops a mathematical model to assess the reliability of the electric mining shovel components. The model can be used to predict reliability of components of the hydraulic mining shovel and system performance. Reliability is an inherent attribute to a system. When the life-cycle costs of a system are being analyzed, reliability plays an important role as a major driver of these costs and has considerable influence on system performance. It is an iterative process that begins with specification of reliability goals consistent with cost and performance objectives. The data were collected from an Indian open cast coal mine and the reliability of various components of the electric mining shovel has been assessed by following a Weibull Model.

Keywords: reliability, Weibull model, electric mining shovel

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Authors: Melik Kara, Gulsah Tulger Kara

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The soil is a crucial component of the ecosystem, and in industrial and urban areas it receives large amounts of trace elements from several sources. Therefore, accumulated pollutants in surface soils can be transported to different environmental components, such as deep soil, water, plants, and dust particles. While elemental contamination of soils is caused mainly by atmospheric deposition, soil also affects the air quality since enriched trace elemental contents in atmospheric particulate matter originate from resuspension of polluted soils. The objectives of this study were to determine the total and leachate concentrations of trace elements in soils of city area in Izmir and characterize their spatial distribution and to identify the possible sources of trace elements in surface soils. The surface soil samples were collected from 20 sites. They were analyzed for total element concentrations and leachate concentrations. Analyses of trace elements (Ag, Al, As, B, Ba, Be, Bi, Ca, Cd, Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Dy, Er, Eu, Fe, Ga, Gd, Hf, Ho, K, La, Li, Lu, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Nd, Ni, P, Pb, Pr, Rb, Sb, Sc, Se, Si, Sm, Sn, Sr, Tb, Th, Ti, Tl, Tm, U, V, W, Y, Yb, Zn and Zr) were carried out using ICP-MS (Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometer). The elemental concentrations were calculated along with overall median, kurtosis, and skewness statistics. Elemental composition indicated that the soil samples were dominated by crustal elements such as Si, Al, Fe, Ca, K, Mg and the sea salt element, Na which is typical for Aegean region. These elements were followed by Ti, P, Mn, Ba and Sr. On the other hand, Zn, Cr, V, Pb, Cu, and Ni (which are anthropogenic based elements) were measured as 61.6, 39.4, 37.9, 26.9, 22.4, and 19.4 mg/kg dw, respectively. The leachate element concentrations were showed similar sorting although their concentrations were much lower than total concentrations. In the study area, the spatial distribution patterns of elemental concentrations varied among sampling sites. The highest concentrations were measured in the vicinity of industrial areas and main roads. To determine the relationships among elements and to identify the possible sources, PCA (Principal Component Analysis) was applied to the data. The analysis resulted in six factors. The first factor exhibited high loadings of Co, K, Mn, Rb, V, Al, Fe, Ni, Ga, Se, and Cr. This factor could be interpreted as residential heating because of Co, K, Rb, and Se. The second factor associated positively with V, Al, Fe, Na, Ba, Ga, Sr, Ti, Se, and Si. Therefore, this factor presents mixed city dust. The third factor showed high loadings with Fe, Ni, Sb, As, Cr. This factor could be associated with industrial facilities. The fourth factor associated with Cu, Mo, Zn, Sn which are the marker elements of traffic. The fifth factor presents crustal dust, due to its high correlation with Si, Ca, and Mg. The last factor is loaded with Pb and Cd emitted from industrial activities.

Keywords: trace elements, surface soil, source apportionment, Izmir

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Soroor K. H. Al-Khafaji, Manal Mohammad Abed

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The research aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a complex engineering system and to design a fuzzy model for the reliability estimation. The designed model has been applied on Vegetable Oil Purification System (neutralization system) to help the specialist user based on the concept of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) to estimate the reliability of the repairable system at the vegetable oil industry. The fuzzy model has been used to predict the system reliability for a future time period, depending on a historical database for the two past years. The model can help to specify the system malfunctions and to predict its reliability during a future period in more accurate and reasonable results compared with the results obtained by the traditional method of reliability estimation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, reliability, repairable systems, FMEA

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Authors: Devin Simmons

Abstract:

At the USDOT’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics, a biannual census of ferry operators in the U.S. is conducted, with results such as route mileage used to determine federal funding levels for operators. AIS data allows for the possibility of using GIS software and geographical methods to confirm operator-reported mileage for individual ferry routes. As part of the USDOT’s work on the ferry census, an algorithm was developed that uses AIS data for ferry vessels in conjunction with known ferry terminal locations to model the average route travelled for use as both a cartographic product and confirmation of operator-reported mileage. AIS data from each vessel is first analyzed to determine individual journeys based on the vessel’s velocity, and changes in velocity over time. These trips are then converted to geographic linestring objects. Using the terminal locations, the algorithm then determines whether the trip represented a known ferry route. Given a large enough dataset, routes will be represented by multiple trip linestrings, which are then filtered by DBSCAN spatial clustering to remove outliers. Finally, these remaining trips are ready to be averaged into one route. The algorithm interpolates the point on each trip linestring that represents the start point. From these start points, a centroid is calculated, and the first point of the average route is determined. Each trip is interpolated again to find the point that represents one percent of the journey’s completion, and the centroid of those points is used as the next point in the average route, and so on until 100 points have been calculated. Routes created using this algorithm have shown demonstrable improvement over previous methods, which included the implementation of a LOESS model. Additionally, the algorithm greatly reduces the amount of manual digitizing needed to visualize ferry activity.

Keywords: ferry vessels, transportation, modeling, AIS data

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Authors: Kuan-Chou Chen

Abstract:

This paper will demonstrate a simulation model of an information security system by using the systems dynamic approach. The relationships in the system model are designed to be simple and functional and do not necessarily represent any particular information security environments. The purpose of the paper aims to develop a generic system dynamic information security system model with implications on information security research. The interrelated and interdependent relationships of five primary sectors in the system dynamic model will be presented in this paper. The integrated information security systems model will include (1) information security characteristics, (2) users, (3) technology, (4) business functions, and (5) policy and management. Environments, attacks, government and social culture will be defined as the external sector. The interactions within each of these sectors will be depicted by system loop map as well. The proposed system dynamic model will not only provide a conceptual framework for information security analysts and designers but also allow information security managers to remove the incongruity between the management of risk incidents and the management of knowledge and further support information security managers and decision makers the foundation for managerial actions and policy decisions.

Keywords: system thinking, information security systems, security management, simulation

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Authors: Ahmad Torkaman, Suogol Shomtob, Hadi Akbari Seddigh

Abstract:

In this paper it has been attempted to investigate the lack of attention to how specific spatial characteristics of the children except existing places such as nurseries. In order to achieve the standard center to faster children understanding their mentality is the first issue that must be studied. Exploring the spiritual characteristics and complexities of children cannot be possible except in accordance with the different aspects and background of their growth in various age periods. In order to achieving the standard center for fostering children, the first issue that must be studied understands their mentality. Exploring the spiritual qualities and complexities of children are not provided except in accordance with the characteristics and their different growth backgrounds in different age periods. According to previous researches game or playing is the most important activity that helps children to communicate and educate and sometimes therapy in specific fields. Investigating game as a proper way to train, the variety of games, the various kind of play environment and how to treat some abnormalities thereby are the issues discussed in recent research. Another consideration concerns the importance of artistic activities among children which is very evident in studying identification of their abnormalities. At the end of this study after investigating how to understand child and communicate with him/her, aiming to recognize Specific spatial characteristics for better training children, the physical and physiological criteria and characteristics is Reviewed and ends up to a list of required spaces and dimensional characteristic of spaces and needed children's equipment.

Keywords: children, space, interior design, development, growth

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Authors: Semih Sözer

Abstract:

One of the most common issues in economic systems is understanding characteristics of economic activities in cities and regions. Although there are critics to economic base models in conceptual and empirical aspects, these models are useful tools to examining the economic structure of a nation, regions or cities. This paper uses one of the methodologies of economic base models namely the location quotients model. Data for this model includes employment numbers of provinces and NUTS II regions in Turkey. Time series of data covers the years of 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2009. Aim of this study is finding which sectors are export-base and which sectors are import-base in provinces and regions. Model results show that big provinces or powerful regions (population, size etc.) mostly have basic sectors in their economic system. However, interesting facts came from different sectors in different provinces and regions in the model results.

Keywords: economic base, location quotients model, regional economics, regional development

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Authors: Albert Gyamfi

Abstract:

Cocoa plays critical role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. Meanwhile, smallholder farmers most of whom are illiterate dominate the industry. According to the cocoa-based agricultural knowledge and information system (AKIS) model knowledge is created and transferred to the industry between three key actors: cocoa researchers, extension experts, and cocoa farmers. Dwelling on the SECI model, the media richness theory (MRT), and the AKIS model, a conceptual model of web 2.0-based AKIS model (AKIS 2.0) is developed and used to assess the possible effects of social media usage for knowledge creation in the Ghanaian cocoa industry. A mixed method approach with a survey questionnaire was employed, and a second-order multi-group structural equation model (SEM) was used to analyze the data. The study concludes that the use of web 2.0 applications for knowledge creation would lead to sustainable interactions among the key knowledge actors for effective knowledge creation in the cocoa industry in Ghana.

Keywords: agriculture, cocoa, knowledge, media, web 2.0

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Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

Abstract:

Developing speed model is a challenging task particularly under mixed traffic condition where the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining vehicular speed. The present research has been conducted to model individual vehicular speed in the context of mixed traffic on an urban arterial. Traffic speed and volume data have been collected from three midblock arterial road sections in New Delhi. Using the field data, a volume based speed prediction model has been developed adopting the methodology of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model developed in this work is capable of estimating speed for individual vehicle category. Validation results show a great deal of agreement between the observed speeds and the predicted values by the model developed. Also, it has been observed that the ANN based model performs better compared to other existing models in terms of accuracy. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed utilizing the model in order to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on individual speeds.

Keywords: speed model, artificial neural network, arterial, mixed traffic

Procedia PDF Downloads 380