Search results for: loss distribution approach

Authors: Ayesha S. Rahman, Khaled Haddad, Ataur Rahman

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At-site flood frequency analysis is used to estimate flood quantiles when at-site record length is reasonably long. In Australia, FLIKE software has been introduced for at-site flood frequency analysis. The advantage of FLIKE is that, for a given application, the user can compare a number of most commonly adopted probability distributions and parameter estimation methods relatively quickly using a windows interface. The new version of FLIKE has been incorporated with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test which can identify multiple numbers of potentially influential low flows. This paper presents a case study considering six catchments in eastern Australia which compares two outlier identification tests (original Grubbs and Beck test and multiple Grubbs and Beck test) and two commonly applied probability distributions (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson type 3 (LP3)) using FLIKE software. It has been found that the multiple Grubbs and Beck test when used with LP3 distribution provides more accurate flood quantile estimates than when LP3 distribution is used with the original Grubbs and Beck test. Between these two methods, the differences in flood quantile estimates have been found to be up to 61% for the six study catchments. It has also been found that GEV distribution (with L moments) and LP3 distribution with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test provide quite similar results in most of the cases; however, a difference up to 38% has been noted for flood quantiles for annual exceedance probability (AEP) of 1 in 100 for one catchment. These findings need to be confirmed with a greater number of stations across other Australian states.

Keywords: floods, FLIKE, probability distributions, flood frequency, outlier

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Authors: Van-Thanh Ho, Hyoungsoon Lee, Jaiyoung Ryu

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Efficient pressure distribution within soft robotic systems, specifically to the pneumatic artificial muscle (PAM) regions, is essential to minimize energy consumption. This optimization involves adjusting reservoir pressure, pipe diameter, and branching network layout to reduce flow speed and pressure drop while enhancing flow efficiency. The outcome of this optimization is a lightweight power source and reduced mechanical impedance, enabling extended wear and movement. To achieve this, a branching network system was created by combining pipe components and intricate cross-sectional area variations, employing the principle of minimal work based on a complete virtual human exosuit. The results indicate that modifying the cross-sectional area of the branching network, gradually decreasing it, reduces velocity and enhances momentum compensation, preventing flow disturbances at separation regions. These optimized designs achieve uniform velocity distribution (uniformity index > 94%) prior to entering the connection pipe, with a pressure drop of less than 5%. The design must also consider the length-to-diameter ratio for fluid dynamic performance and production cost. This approach can be utilized to create a comprehensive PAM system, integrating well-designed tube networks and complex pneumatic models.

Keywords: pneumatic artificial muscles, pipe networks, pressure drop, compressible turbulent flow, uniformity flow, murray's law

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Authors: Rim Frikha, Nouha Bouayed, Afifa Sellami, Nozha Chakroun, Salima Daoud, Leila Keskes, Tarek Rebai

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Introduction: Recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) defined as two or more pregnancy losses, is a serious clinical problem. Methylene-tetrahydro-folate-reductase (MTHFR) polymorphisms, commonly the variant C677T is recognized as an inherited thrombophilia which might affect embryonic development and pregnancy success and cause pregnancy complications as RPL. Material and Methods DNA was extracted from peripheral blood samples and PCR-RFLP was performed for the molecular diagnosis of the C677T MTHFR polymorphism among 70 patients (35 couples) with more than 2 fetal losses. Aims and Objective: The aim of this study is to determine the frequency of MTHFR C677T among Tunisian couples with RPL and to critically analyze the available literature on the importance of MTHFR polymorphism testing in the management of RPL. Result and comments: No C677T mutation was detected in the carriers of RPL. This result would be related to sample size and to different criteria (number of abortion), - The association between MTHFR polymorphisms and pregnancy complications has been reported but with controversial results. - A lack of evidence for MTHFR polymorphism testing previously recommended by ACMG (American College of Medical medicine). Our study highlights the importance of screening of MTHFR polymorphism since the real impact of such thrombotic molecular defect on the pregnancy outcome is evident. - Folic supplementation of these patients during pregnancy can prevent such complications and lead to a successful pregnancy outcome.

Keywords: methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase, C677T, recurrent pregnancy loss, genetic testing

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Authors: Magdy I. A. Alshourbagi

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Background: The National Institute for Deafness and Communication Disorders defines idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss as the idiopathic loss of hearing of at least 30 dB across 3 contiguous frequencies occurring within 3 days.The most common clinical presentation involves an individual experiencing a sudden unilateral hearing loss, tinnitus, a sensation of aural fullness and vertigo. The etiologies and pathologies of ISSNHL remain unclear. Several pathophysiological mechanisms have been described including: vascular occlusion, viral infections, labyrinthine membrane breaks, immune associated disease, abnormal cochlear stress response, trauma, abnormal tissue growth, toxins, ototoxic drugs and cochlear membrane damage. The rationale for the use of hyperbaric oxygen to treat ISSHL is supported by an understanding of the high metabolism and paucity of vascularity to the cochlea. The cochlea and the structures within it require a high oxygen supply. The direct vascular supply, particularly to the organ of Corti, is minimal. Tissue oxygenation to the structures within the cochlea occurs via oxygen diffusion from cochlear capillary networks into the perilymph and the cortilymph. . The perilymph is the primary oxygen source for these intracochlear structures. Unfortunately, perilymph oxygen tension is decreased significantly in patients with ISSHL. To achieve a consistent rise of perilymph oxygen content, the arterial-perilymphatic oxygen concentration difference must be extremely high. This can be restored with hyperbaric oxygen therapy. Subject and Methods: A 37 year old man was presented at the clinic with a five days history of muffled hearing and tinnitus of the right ear. Symptoms were sudden onset, with no associated pain, dizziness or otorrhea and no past history of hearing problems or medical illness. Family history was negative. Physical examination was normal. Otologic examination revealed normal tympanic membranes bilaterally, with no evidence of cerumen or middle ear effusion. Tuning fork examination showed positive Rinne test bilaterally but with lateralization of Weber test to the left side, indicating right ear sensorineural hearing loss. Audiometric analysis confirmed sensorineural hearing loss across all frequencies of about 70- dB in the right ear. Routine lab work were all within normal limits. Clinical diagnosis of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss of the right ear was made and the patient began a medical treatment (corticosteroid, vasodilator and HBO therapy). The recommended treatment profile consists of 100% O2 at 2.5 atmospheres absolute for 60 minutes daily (six days per week) for 40 treatments .The optimal number of HBOT treatments will vary, depending on the severity and duration of symptomatology and the response to treatment. Results: As HBOT is not yet a standard for idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss, it was introduced to this patient as an adjuvant therapy. The HBOT program was scheduled for 40 sessions, we used a 12-seat multi place chamber for the HBOT, which was started at day seven after the hearing loss onset. After the tenth session of HBOT, improvement of both hearing (by audiogram) and tinnitus was obtained in the affected ear (right). Conclusions: In conclusion, HBOT may be used for idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss as an adjuvant therapy. It may promote oxygenation to the inner ear apparatus and revive hearing ability. Patients who fail to respond to oral and intratympanic steroids may benefit from this treatment. Further investigation is warranted, including animal studies to understand the molecular and histopathological aspects of HBOT and randomized control clinical studies.

Keywords: idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (issnhl), hyperbaric oxygen therapy (hbot), the decibel (db), oxygen (o2)

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Authors: Azin Shakibabarough, Mojtaba Valinejadshoubi, Ashutosh Bagchi

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Structural vibration means repetitive motion that causes fatigue and reduction of the performance of a structure. An earthquake may release high amount of energy that can have adverse effect on all components of a structure. Therefore, decreasing of vibration or maintaining performance of structures such as bridges, dams, roads and buildings is important for life safety and reducing economic loss. When earthquake or any vibration happens, investigation on parts of a structure which sustain the seismic loads is mandatory to provide a safe condition for the occupants. One of the solutions for reducing the earthquake vibration in a structure is using of vibration control devices such as dampers and base isolators. The objective of this study is to investigate the optimal positions of friction dampers and base isolators for better seismic response of 2D frame. For this purpose, a two bay and six story frame with different distribution formats was modeled and some of their responses to earthquake such as inter-story drift, max joint displacement, max axial force and max bending moment were determined and compared using non-linear dynamic analysis.

Keywords: fast nonlinear analysis, friction damper, base isolator, seismic vibration control, seismic response

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Authors: G. Kabir, A. M. Mohammed, M. A. Bawa

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The paper presents corrosion behaviors of Naval Brass, aluminum alloy and carbon steel in simulated seawater under stagnant conditions. The behaviors were characterized on the variation of chloride ions concentration in the range of 3.0wt% and 3.5wt% and exposure time. The weight loss coupon-method immersion technique was employed. The weight loss for the various alloys was measured. Based on the obtained results, the corrosion rate was determined. It was found that the corrosion rates of the various alloys are related to the chloride ions concentrations, exposure time and kinetics of passive film formation of the various alloys. Carbon steel, suffers corrosion many folds more than Naval Brass. This indicated that the alloy exhibited relatively strong resistance to corrosion in the exposure environment of the seawater. Whereas, the aluminum alloy exhibited an excellent and beneficial resistance to corrosion more than the Naval Brass studied. Despite the prohibitive cost, Naval Brass and aluminum alloy, indicated to have beneficial corrosion behavior that can offer wide range of application in seashore operations. The corrosion kinetics parameters indicated that the corrosion reaction is limited by diffusion mass transfer of the corrosion reaction elements and not by reaction controlled.

Keywords: alloys, chloride ions concentration, corrosion kinetics, corrosion rate, diffusion mass transfer, exposure time, seawater, weight loss

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Authors: Murad Ali, Shoji Arai, Mohamed Khedr, Mukhtar Nasher, Shawki Nasr

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The Wadi Bayhan area of southeastern Yemen is about 60 km NW of Al-Bayda city in the Al-Bayda uplift terrane at the southeast margin of the Arabian-Nubian Shield. Intrusion of alkali gabbro into carbonate rocks apparently produced an 8m to 10 m thick reaction zone at the contact. This had been identified as nepheline pyroxenite. We have observed this to be mineralogically zoned with calc-silicate assemblages (e.g. pyroxene, calcite, spinel, garnet and melilite). The presence of melilite implies a skarn. The sinuous embayed pyroxenite-skarn contact, the presence of skarn minerals in pyroxenite, and textural evidence for growth of calc-silicate skarn by replacement of both carbonate rocks and solid pyroxenite indicate that reaction involved assimilation of carbonate wall rock by magma and loss of Al and Si to the skarn. Textural relationships between minerals provide evidence for a metasomatic development of the skarn at the expense of the pyroxenite. This process, related to the circulation of fluids equilibrated with carbonates, is responsible for those pyroxenite-spinel (± calcite) skarns. The uneven modal distribution of euhedral pyroxenite and enveloping nepheline in pyroxenite, the restricted occurrence of alkali gabbro as dikes in pyroxenite and skarn and the leucocratic matrix of pyroxenite suggest that pyroxenite represents an accumulation of titanaugite cemented by an alkali-rich residual magma and that alkali gabbro represents a part of the residual contaminated magma that was squeezed out of the pyroxene crystal mush. Carbonate assimilation is modeled by reaction of calcite and magmatic plagioclase, which results in resorption of plagioclase, growth of pyroxene enriched in Ca, Fe, Ti, and Al, and solution of nepheline in residual contaminated magma. The composition of nepheline pyroxenite evolved by addition of Ca from dissolved carbonate rocks, loss of Al and Si to skarn, and local segregation of solid pyroxene and alkali gabbro magma. The predominance of pyroxenite among contaminated rocks and their restriction to a large zone along the intrusive contact provide little evidence for the genesis of a significant volume of alkaline magmatic surroundings by carbonate assimilation.

Keywords: Yemen, Wadi Bayhan, skarn, pyroxenite, carbonatite, metasomatic

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Authors: Abdelhadi Adel, Kadri Ouahab

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This paper proposes an improved approach based on MAS Architecture and Heuristic Algorithm for systematic maintenance to minimize makespan. We have implemented a problem-solving approach for optimizing the processing time, methods based on metaheuristics. The proposed approach is inspired by the behavior of the human body. This hybridization is between a multi-agent system and inspirations of the human body, especially genetics. The effectiveness of our approach has been demonstrated repeatedly in this paper. To solve such a complex problem, we proposed an approach which we have used advanced operators such as uniform crossover set and single point mutation. The proposed approach is applied to three preventive maintenance policies. These policies are intended to maximize the availability or to maintain a minimum level of reliability during the production chain. The results show that our algorithm outperforms existing algorithms. We assumed that the machines might be unavailable periodically during the production scheduling.

Keywords: multi-agent systems, emergence, genetic algorithm, makespan, systematic maintenance, scheduling, hybrid flow shop scheduling

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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Authors: Opeyemi Fadipe, Masud Salimian

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The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced a new normal into the world; online teaching is now the most used method of teaching over the face to face meeting. With the emergency of these teaching, online-teaching has been improved over time and with more technological advancement tools introduced. Practical courses are more demanding to teach because it requires the physical presence of the student as well as a demonstration of the equipment. In this study, a case of Lagos State University thermofluid practical was the understudy. A survey was done and give to a sample of students to fill. The result showed that the blend-approach is better for practical course teaching. Software simulation of the equipment used to conduct practical should be encouraged in the future.

Keywords: COVID-19, online teaching, t-distribution, thermofluid

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Authors: Anubhav Kumar Dwivedi, Arshad Khan, S. N. Tripathi, Manish Joshi, Gaurav Mishra, Dinesh Nath, Naveen Tiwari, B. K. Sapra

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In a nuclear reactor accident scenario, a large number of fission products may release to the piping system of the primary heat transport. The released fission products, mostly in the form of the aerosol, get deposited on the inner surface of the piping system mainly due to gravitational settling and thermophoretic deposition. The removal processes in the complex piping system are controlled to a large extent by the thermal-hydraulic conditions like temperature, pressure, and flow rates. These parameters generally vary with time and therefore must be carefully monitored to predict the aerosol behavior in the piping system. The removal process of aerosol depends on the size of particles that determines how many particles get deposit or travel across the bends and reach to the other end of the piping system. The released aerosol gets deposited onto the inner surface of the piping system by various mechanisms like gravitational settling, Brownian diffusion, thermophoretic deposition, and by other deposition mechanisms. To quantify the correct estimate of deposition, the identification and understanding of the aforementioned deposition mechanisms are of great importance. These mechanisms are significantly affected by different flow and thermodynamic conditions. Thermophoresis also plays a significant role in particle deposition. In the present study, a series of experiments were performed in the piping system of the National Aerosol Test Facility (NATF), BARC using metal aerosols (zinc) in dry environments to study the spatial distribution of particles mass and number concentration, and their depletion due to various removal mechanisms in the piping system. The experiments were performed at two different carrier gas flow rates. The commercial CFD software FLUENT is used to determine the distribution of temperature, velocity, pressure, and turbulence quantities in the piping system. In addition to the in-built models for turbulence, heat transfer and flow in the commercial CFD code (FLUENT), a new sub-model PBM (population balance model) is used to describe the coagulation process and to compute the number concentration along with the size distribution at different sections of the piping. In the sub-model coagulation kernels are incorporated through user-defined function (UDF). The experimental results are compared with the CFD modeled results. It is found that most of the Zn particles (more than 35 %) deposit near the inlet of the plenum chamber and a low deposition is obtained in piping sections. The MMAD decreases along the length of the test assembly, which shows that large particles get deposited or removed in the course of flow, and only fine particles travel to the end of the piping system. The effect of a bend is also observed, and it is found that the relative loss in mass concentration at bends is more in case of a high flow rate. The simulation results show that the thermophoresis and depositional effects are more dominating for the small and larger sizes as compared to the intermediate particles size. Both SEM and XRD analysis of the collected samples show the samples are highly agglomerated non-spherical and composed mainly of ZnO. The coupled model framed in this work could be used as an important tool for predicting size distribution and concentration of some other aerosol released during a reactor accident scenario.

Keywords: aerosol, CFD, deposition, coagulation

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Authors: Y. Galerkin, A. Rekstin, K. Soldatova

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Universal modeling method well proven for industrial compressors was applied for design of the high flow rate supersonic stage. Results were checked by ANSYS CFX and NUMECA Fine Turbo calculations. The impeller appeared to be very effective at transonic flow velocities. Stator elements efficiency is acceptable at design Mach numbers too. Their loss coefficient versus inlet flow angle performances correlates well with Universal modeling prediction. The impeller demonstrated ability of satisfactory operation at design flow rate. Supersonic flow behavior in the impeller inducer at the shroud blade to blade surface Φdes deserves additional study.

Keywords: centrifugal compressor stage, supersonic impeller, inlet flow angle, loss coefficient, return channel, shock wave, vane diffuser

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Authors: Amr Hamdy

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Background: Postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) is the leading cause of maternal mortality worldwide. Many methods have been developed to decrease its rate. The aim of this study was to evaluate the applicability of a new non-pharmacologic maneuver in decreasing its rate. Methods: This case series study was conducted in one centre in Cairo, Egypt, from January-2010 to June-2013. 400 pregnant–women aged 18 years or more and candidate for normal labour; were enrolled to this study. High-risk subjects for PPH were excluded. After placental delivery, the new maneuver was done by sustained traction of the anterior and posterior lips of the cervix by two ovum forceps for duration of 90 seconds. The amount of blood loss was estimated by standardized visual estimation after removal of the forceps. All subjects were followed up for 6 hours. Results: The rate of PPH, defined as more than 500 ml, was 8 cases (2%) with 95% CI (0.63-3.37%). The rate of PPH was not affected by parity, gestational age, episiotomy or the presence of tears. PPH is more in cases with anemia (p 0.032). It occurred in all cases with uterine atony (p <0.001). The range of estimated blood loss was 550-600ml in cases with PPH and 150-450ml in cases without PPH. Severe PPH more than 1000 ml, did not occur. Conclusion: This pilot study introduced a novel maneuver that can be helpful in decreasing the rate of PPH and reducing the amount of post partum blood loss.Despite the low rate of PPH showed in this study, the need for conducting a randomized controlled study is at its highest level before further inclusion of such manoeuvre to be a part of the current medical practice and before considering it as an evident tool to decrease the burden of PPH.

Keywords: maternal mortality, new manoeuvre, post-partum haemorrhage, uterine atony

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Authors: J. P. Borah, R. D. Raland

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Hyperthermia is one of many techniques used destroys cancerous cell. It uses the physical methods to heat certain organ or tissue delivering an adequate temperature in an appropriate period of time, to the entire tumor volume for achieving optimal therapeutic results. Magnetic Metal ferrites nanoparticles (MFe₂O₄ where M = Mn, Zn, Ni, Co, Mg, etc.) are one of the most potential candidates for hyperthermia due to their tunability, biocompatibility, chemical stability and notable ability to mediate high rate of heat induction. However, to obtain the desirable properties for these applications, it is important to optimize their chemical composition, structure and magnetic properties. These properties are mainly sensitive to cation distribution of tetrahedral and octahedral sites. Among the ferrites, zinc ferrite (ZnFe₂O₄) and Manganese ferrite ((MnFe₂O₄) is one of a strong candidate for hyperthermia application because Mn and zinc have a non-magnetic cation and therefore the magnetic property is determined only by the cation distribution of iron, which provides a better platform to manipulate or tailor the properties. In this talk, influence of doping and surfactant towards cation re-distribution leading to an enhancement of magnetic properties of ferrite nanoparticles will be demonstrated. The efficiency of heat generation in association with the enhanced magnetic property is also well discussed in this talk.

Keywords: magnetic nanoparticle, hyperthermia, x-ray diffraction, TEM study

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Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

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Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: automatic calibration framework, approximate bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform

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Authors: Anders Thorsén, Behrooz Sangchoolie, Peter Folkesson, Ted Strandberg

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As more parts of the power grid become connected to the internet, the risk of cyberattacks increases. To identify the cybersecurity threats and subsequently reduce vulnerabilities, the common practice is to carry out a cybersecurity risk assessment. For safety classified systems and products, there is also a need for safety risk assessments in addition to the cybersecurity risk assessment in order to identify and reduce safety risks. These two risk assessments are usually done separately, but since cybersecurity and functional safety are often related, a more comprehensive method covering both aspects is needed. Some work addressing this has been done for specific domains like the automotive domain, but more general methods suitable for, e.g., intelligent distributed grids, are still missing. One such method from the automotive domain is the Security-Aware Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment (SAHARA) method that combines safety and cybersecurity risk assessments. This paper presents an approach where the SAHARA method has been modified in order to be more suitable for larger distributed systems. The adapted SAHARA method has a more general risk assessment approach than the original SAHARA. The proposed method has been successfully applied on two use cases of an intelligent distributed grid.

Keywords: intelligent distribution grids, threat analysis, risk assessment, safety, cybersecurity

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Authors: Abdelkader Nouri, M’hamed Bouslama, Faouzi Saidi, Hassan Maaref, Michel Gendry

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Self-organized InAs quantum dots (QDs) have been grown on 3,1% InP (110) lattice mismatched substrate by Solid Source Molecular Beam Epitaxy (SSMBE). Stranski-Krastanov mode growth has been used to create self-assembled 3D islands on InAs wetting layer (WL). The optical quality depending on the temperature and power is evaluated. In addition, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) images shows inhomogeneous island dots size distribution due to temperature coalescence. The quantum size effect was clearly observed through the spectra photoluminescence (PL) shape.

Keywords: AFM, InAs QDs, PL, SSMBE

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Authors: Ahmad Alwosheel, Ahmed Alqaraawi

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This work proposes a new speaker segmentation approach for two speakers. It is an online approach that does not require a prior information about speaker models. It has two phases, a conventional approach such as unsupervised BIC-based is utilized in the first phase to detect speaker changes and train a Neural Network, while in the second phase, the output trained parameters from the Neural Network are used to predict next incoming audio stream. Using this approach, a comparable accuracy to similar BIC-based approaches is achieved with a significant improvement in terms of computation time.

Keywords: artificial neural network, diarization, speaker indexing, speaker segmentation

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Authors: Ho Yuan-Hong, Huang Chiung-Ju

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This study conducts simulation analyses to find the optimal debt ceiling of Taiwan, while factoring in welfare maximization under a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The simulation is based on Taiwan's 2001 to 2011 economic data and shows that welfare is maximized at a "debt"⁄"GDP" ratio of 0.2, increases in the "debt"⁄"GDP " ratio leads to increases in both tax and interest rates and decreases in the consumption ratio and working hours. The study results indicate that the optimal debt ceiling of Taiwan is 20% of GDP, where if the "debt"⁄"GDP" ratio is greater than 40%, the welfare will be negative and result in welfare loss.

Keywords: debt sustainability, optimal debt ceiling, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, welfare maximization

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Authors: Eshwara Prasad Koorapati, R. Raman Goud, Swadesh Kumar Singh

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In the present work forming limit diagrams and strain distribution profile diagrams for extra deep drawing steel at room and elevated temperatures have been determined experimentally by conducting stretch forming experiments by using designed and fabricated warm stretch forming tooling setup. With the help of forming Limit Diagrams (FLDs) and strain distribution profile diagrams the formability of Extra Deep Drawing steel has been analyzed and co-related with mechanical properties like strain hardening coefficient (n) and normal anisotropy (r−).Mechanical properties of EDD steel from room temperature to 4500 C were determined and discussed the impact of temperature on the properties like work hardening exponent (n) anisotropy (r-) and strength coefficient of the material. Also, the fractured surfaces after stretching have undergone the some metallurgical investigations and attempt has been made to co-relate with the formability of EDD steel sheets. They are co-related and good agreement with FLDs at various temperatures.

Keywords: FLD, micro hardness, strain distribution profile, stretch forming

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Authors: Bahloul Amel

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This study is an attempt to raise the awareness of the stakeholders and the authorities on the sensitivity of Algerian secondary school teachers of English as a Foreign Language about the students’ loss of English language skills learned during formal schooling with effort and at expense and the supposed measures to arrest that loss. Data was collected from secondary school teachers of EFL and analyzed quantitatively using a questionnaire containing open-ended and close-ended questions. The results advocate a consensus about the need for actions to be adopted to make assessment techniques outcome-oriented. Most of the participants were in favor of including curricular activities involving contextualized learning, problem-solving learning critical self-awareness, self and peer-assisted learning, use of computers and internet so as to make learners autonomous.

Keywords: lifelong learning, EFL, contextualized learning, Algeria

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Authors: Trisiladi Supriyanto

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This study aims to establish a concept of rate of profit on Islamic banking that can create economic justice and stability in the Islamic Financial Market (Banking and Capital Markets). A rate of profit that creates economic justice and stability can be achieved through its role in maintaining the stability of the financial system in which there is an equitable distribution of income and wealth. To determine the role of the rate of profit as the basis of the profit sharing system implemented in the Islamic financial system, we can see the connection of rate of profit in creating financial stability, especially in the asset-liability management of financial institutions that generate a stable net margin or the rate of profit that is not affected by the ups and downs of the market risk factors, including indirect effect on interest rates. Furthermore, Islamic financial stability can be seen from the role of the rate of profit on the stability of the Islamic financial assets value that are measured from the Islamic financial asset price volatility in the Islamic Bond Market in the Capital Market.

Keywords: economic justice, equitable distribution of income, equitable distribution of wealth, rate of profit, stability in the financial system

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Authors: Debasis Sengupta, Sudipta Das

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The class of life distributions with decreasing mean residual life (DMRL) is well known in the field of reliability modeling. It contains the IFR class of distributions and is contained in the NBUE class of distributions. While upper and lower bounds of the reliability distribution function of aging classes such as IFR, IFRA, NBU, NBUE, and HNBUE have discussed in the literature for a long time, there is no analogous result available for the DMRL class. We obtain the upper and lower bounds for the reliability function of the DMRL class in terms of first order finite moment. The lower bound is obtained by showing that for any fixed time, the minimization of the reliability function over the class of all DMRL distributions with a fixed mean is equivalent to its minimization over a smaller class of distribution with a special form. Optimization over this restricted set can be made algebraically. Likewise, the maximization of the reliability function over the class of all DMRL distributions with a fixed mean turns out to be a parametric optimization problem over the class of DMRL distributions of a special form. The constructive proofs also establish that both the upper and lower bounds are sharp. Further, the DMRL upper bound coincides with the HNBUE upper bound and the lower bound coincides with the IFR lower bound. We also prove that a pair of sharp upper and lower bounds for the reliability function when the distribution is increasing mean residual life (IMRL) with a fixed mean. This result is proved in a similar way. These inequalities fill a long-standing void in the literature of the life distribution modeling.

Keywords: DMRL, IMRL, reliability bounds, hazard functions

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi, Aref Ghafouri

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Performance of different filtering approaches depends on modeling of dynamical system and algorithm structure. For modeling and smoothing the data the evaluation of posterior distribution in different filtering approach should be chosen carefully. In this paper different filtering approaches like filter KALMAN, EKF, UKF, EKS and smoother RTS is simulated in some trajectory tracking of path and accuracy and limitation of these approaches are explained. Then probability of model with different filters is compered and finally the effect of the noise variance to estimation is described with simulations results.

Keywords: Gaussian approximation, Kalman smoother, parameter estimation, noise variance

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Authors: P. Vosynek, T. Návrat, M. Peč, J. Pořízka, P. Diviš

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Changes of mechanical properties and response behavior of bones is an important external sign of medical problems like osteoporosis, bone remodeling after fracture or surgery, osteointegration, or bone tissue loss of astronauts in space. Measuring of mechanical behavior of bones in physiological and osteoporotic states, quantified by different degrees of protein (collagen) and mineral loss, is thus an important topic in biomechanical research. This contribution deals with the relation between mechanical properties of the turkey long bone–tibia in physiological, demineralized, and deproteinized state. Three methods for comparison were used: densitometry, three point bending and harmonic response analysis. The results help to find correlations between the methods and estimate their possible application in medical practice.

Keywords: bone properties, long bone, osteoporosis, response behavior

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Authors: Mohammad Alhajeri

Abstract:

This paper reports a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) investigation of cylindrical filter. Silicon carbide cylindrical filter elements have proven to be an effective mean of removing particulates to levels exceeding the new source performance standard. The CFD code is used here to understand the deposition process and the factors that affect the particles distribution over the filter element surface. Different approach cross flow velocity to filter face velocity ratios and different face velocities (ranging from 2 to 5 cm/s) are used in this study. Particles in the diameter range 1 to 100 microns are tracked through the domain. The radius of convergence (or the critical trajectory) is compared and plotted as a function of many parameters.

Keywords: filtration, CFD, CCF, hot gas filtration

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Authors: Adamu Zubairu Mohammed, Fransis Oforum Arimoro, Salihu Maikudi Ibrahim, Y. I. Auta, T. I. Arowosegbe, Y. Abdullahi

Abstract:

The present study was conducted to evaluate the effect of depth on the distribution of zooplankton and some physicochemical parameters in Tungan Kawo Lake (Wushishi dam). Water and zooplankton samples were collected from the surface, 3.0 meters deep and 6.0 meters deep, for a period of 24 hours for six months. Standard procedures were adopted for the determination of physicochemical parameters. Results have shown significant differences in the pH, DO, BOD Hardness, Na, and Mg. A total of 1764 zooplankton were recorded, comprising 35 species, with cladocera having 18 species (58%), 14 species of copepoda (41%), 3 species of diptera (1.0%). Results show that more of the zooplankton were recorded in the 3.0 meters-deep region compared to the two other depts and a significant difference was observed in the distribution of Ceriodaphnia dubia, Daphnia laevis, and Leptodiaptomus coloradensis. Though the most abundant zooplankton was recorded in the 3.0 meters deep, Leptodiaptomus coloradesnsis, which was observed in the 6.0 meters deep as the most individual observed, this was followed by Daphnia laevis. Canonical correspondence analysis between physicochemical parameters and the zooplankton indicated a good relationship in the Lake. Ceriodaphnia dubia was found to have a good association with oxygen, sodium, and potassium, while Daphnia laevis and Leptodiaptomus coloradensis are in good relationship with magnesium and phosphorus. It was generally observed that this depth does not have much influence on the distribution of zooplankton in Wushishi Lake.

Keywords: zooplankton, standard procedures, canonical correspondence analysis, Wushishi, canonical, physicochemical parameter

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Authors: Vinita Choudhary

Abstract:

The solidly mounted resonator (SMR) is a bulk acoustic wave-based device consisting of a piezoelectric layer sandwiched between two electrodes upon Bragg reflectors, which then are attached to a substrate. To transform the effective acoustic impedance of the substrate to a near zero value, the Bragg reflectors are composed of alternating high and low acoustic impedance layers of quarter-wavelength thickness. In this work presents the design and investigation of acoustic Bragg reflectors (ABRs) for solidly mounted bulk acoustic wave resonators through analysis and simulation. This performance of the resonator is analyzed using 1D Mason modeling. The performance parameters are the effect of Bragg pairs number on transmissivity, reflectivity, insertion loss, the electromechanical and quality factor of the 5GHz operating resonator.

Keywords: bragg reflectors, SMR, insertion loss, quality factor

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Authors: Robert Pellerin, Michel Gamache, Remi Trudeau, Nathalie Perrier

Abstract:

The context of large engineering projects is particularly favorable to the appearance of engineering changes and contractual modifications. These elements are potential causes for claims. In this paper, we investigate one of the critical components of the claim management process: the calculation of the impacts of changes in terms of losses of productivity due to the need to accelerate some project activities. When project changes are initiated, delays can arise. Indeed, project activities are often executed in fast-tracking in an attempt to respect the completion date. But the acceleration of project execution and the resulting rework can entail important costs as well as induce productivity losses. In the past, numerous methods have been proposed to quantify the duration of delays, the gains achieved by project acceleration, and the loss of productivity. The calculation related to those changes can be divided into two categories: direct cost and indirect cost. The direct cost is easily quantifiable as opposed to indirect costs which are rarely taken into account during the calculation of the cost of an engineering change or contract modification despite several research projects have been made on this subject. However, proposed models have not been accepted by companies yet, nor they have been accepted in court. Those models require extensive data and are often seen as too specific to be used for all projects. These techniques are also ignoring the resource constraints and the interdependencies between the causes of delays and the delays themselves. To resolve this issue, this research proposes a simulation model that mimics how major engineering changes or contract modifications are handled in large construction projects. The model replicates the use of overtime in a reactive scheduling mode in order to simulate the loss of productivity present when a project change occurs. Multiple tests were conducted to compare the results of the proposed simulation model with statistical analysis conducted by other researchers. Different scenarios were also conducted in order to determine the impact the number of activities, the time of occurrence of the change, the availability of resources, and the type of project changes on productivity loss. Our results demonstrate that the number of activities in the project is a critical variable influencing the productivity of a project. When changes occur, the presence of a large number of activities leads to a much lower productivity loss than a small number of activities. The speed of reducing productivity for 30-job projects is about 25 percent faster than the reduction speed for 120-job projects. The moment of occurrence of a change also shows a significant impact on productivity. Indeed, the sooner the change occurs, the lower the productivity of the labor force. The availability of resources also impacts the productivity of a project when a change is implemented. There is a higher loss of productivity when the amount of resources is restricted.

Keywords: engineering changes, indirect costs overtime, productivity, scheduling, simulation

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Authors: J. Cecrdle

Abstract:

This paper deals with the whirl flutter of the turboprop aircraft structures. It is focused on the influence of the blade lift span-wise distribution on the whirl flutter stability. Firstly it gives the overall theoretical background of the whirl flutter phenomenon. After that the propeller blade forces solution and the options of the blade lift modelling are described. The problem is demonstrated on the example of a twin turboprop aircraft structure. There are evaluated the influences with respect to the propeller aerodynamic derivatives and finally the influences to the whirl flutter speed and the whirl flutter margin respectively.

Keywords: aeroelasticity, flutter, propeller blade force, whirl flutter

Procedia PDF Downloads 521