Search results for: coupled model inter-comparison project

Authors: Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Constantine Mbajiorgu

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Vegetation has a marked effect on runoff and has become an important component in hydrologic model. The watershed Resources Management (WRM) model, a process-based, continuous, distributed parameter simulation model developed for hydrologic and soil erosion studies at the watershed scale lack a crop growth component. As such, this model assumes a constant parameter values for vegetation and hydraulic parameters throughout the duration of hydrologic simulation. Our approach is to develop a crop growth algorithm based on the original plant growth model used in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model (EPIC) model. This paper describes the development of a single crop growth model which has the capability of simulating all crops using unique parameter values for each crop. Simulated crop growth processes will reflect the vegetative seasonality of the natural watershed system. An existing model was employed for evaluating vegetative resistance by hydraulic and vegetative parameters incorporated into the WRM model. The improved WRM model will have the ability to evaluate the seasonal variation of the vegetative roughness coefficient with depth of flow and further enhance the hydrologic model’s capability for accurate hydrologic studies.

Keywords: runoff, roughness coefficient, PAR, WRM model

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Authors: Azmawati Mohammed Nawi, Siok-Fong Chin, Shamsul Azhar Shah, Rahman Jamal

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In recent years, trace elements have gained importance as biomarkers in many chronic diseases. Unfortunately, the requirement for sample volume increases according to the extent of investigation for diagnosis or elucidating the mechanism of the disease. Here, we describe the method development and validation for simultaneous determination of 25 trace elements (lithium (Li), beryllium (Be), magnesium (Mg), aluminium (Al), vanadium (V), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), gallium (Ga), arsenic (As), selenium (Se), rubidium (Rb), strontium (Sr), silver (Ag), cadmium (Cd), caesium (Cs), barium (Ba), mercury (Hg), thallium (Tl), lead (Pb), uranium (U)) using just 20 µL of human serum. Serum samples were digested with nitric acid and hydrochloric acid (ratio 1:1, v/v) and analysed using inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Seronorm®, a human-derived serum control material was used as quality control samples. The intra-day and inter-day precisions were consistently < 15% for all elements. The validated method was later applied to 30 human serum samples to evaluate its suitability. In conclusion, we have successfully developed and validated a precise and accurate analytical method for determining 25 trace elements requiring very low volume of human serum.

Keywords: acid digestion, ICP-MS, trace element, serum

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Authors: Ivo Zution Goncalves, Christopher M. U. Neale, Hiran Medeiros, Everardo Mantovani, Natalia Souza

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Multispectral and thermal infrared imagery from satellite sensors coupled with climate and soil datasets were used to estimate evapotranspiration and biomass in center pivots planted to maize in Brazil during the 2016 season. The hybrid remote sensing based model named Spatial EvapoTranspiration Modelling Interface (SETMI) was applied using multispectral and thermal infrared imagery from the Landsat Thematic Mapper instrument. Field data collected by the IRRIGER center pivot management company included daily weather information such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, relative humidity for estimating reference evapotranspiration. In addition, soil water content data were obtained every 0.20 m in the soil profile down to 0.60 m depth throughout the season. Early season soil samples were used to obtain water-holding capacity, wilting point, saturated hydraulic conductivity, initial volumetric soil water content, layer thickness, and saturated volumetric water content. Crop canopy development parameters and irrigation application depths were also inputs of the model. The modeling approach is based on the reflectance-based crop coefficient approach contained within the SETMI hybrid ET model using relationships developed in Nebraska. The model was applied to several fields located in Minas Gerais State in Brazil with approximate latitude: -16.630434 and longitude: -47.192876. The model provides estimates of real crop evapotranspiration (ET), crop irrigation requirements and all soil water balance outputs, including biomass estimation using multi-temporal satellite image inputs. An interpolation scheme based on the growing degree-day concept was used to model the periods between satellite inputs, filling the gaps between image dates and obtaining daily data. Actual and accumulated ET, accumulated cold temperature and water stress and crop water requirements estimated by the model were compared with data measured at the experimental fields. Results indicate that the SETMI modeling approach using data assimilation, showed reliable daily ET and crop water requirements for maize, interpolated between remote sensing observations, confirming the applicability of the SETMI model using new relationships developed in Nebraska for estimating mainly ET and water requirements in Brazil under tropical conditions.

Keywords: basal crop coefficient, irrigation, remote sensing, SETMI

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Authors: A. Ghafouri, N. Pourmahmoud, I. Mirzaee

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In this numerical study, effects of using Al2O3-water nanofluid on the rate of heat transfer have been investigated numerically. The physical model is a square enclosure with insulated top and bottom horizontal walls while the vertical walls are kept at different constant temperatures. Two appropriate models are used to evaluate the viscosity and thermal conductivity of nanofluid. The governing stream-vorticity equations are solved using a second order central finite difference scheme, coupled to the conservation of mass and energy. The study has been carried out for the nanoparticle diameter 30, 60, and 90 nm and the solid volume fraction 0 to 0.04. Results are presented by average Nusselt number and normalized Nusselt number in the different range of φ and D for mixed convection dominated regime. It is found that different heat transfer rate is predicted when the effect of nanoparticle diameter is taken into account.

Keywords: nanofluid, nanoparticle diameter, heat transfer enhancement, square enclosure, Nusselt number

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Authors: Pier Andrea Marras, Daniela Lima, Pedro Matos Soares, Rita Maria Cardoso, Daniela Medas, Elisabetta Dore, Giovanni De Giudici

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Climate change effects on the hydrologic cycle are the main concern for the evaluation of water management strategies. Climate models project scenarios of precipitation changes in the future, considering greenhouse emissions. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) climate models were first evaluated in a Mediterranean island (Sardinia) against observed precipitation for a historical reference period (1976-2005). A weighted multi-model ensemble (ENS) was built, weighting the single models based on their ability to reproduce observed rainfall. Future projections (2071-2100) were carried out using the 8.5 RCP emissions scenario to evaluate changes in precipitations. ENS was then used as climate forcing for the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), with the aim to assess the consequences of such projected changes on streamflow and runoff of two small catchments located in the South-West Sardinia. Results showed that a decrease of mean rainfall values, up to -25 % at yearly scale, is expected for the future, along with an increase of extreme precipitation events. Particularly in the eastern and southern areas, extreme events are projected to increase by 30%. Such changes reflect on the hydrologic cycle with a decrease of mean streamflow and runoff, except in spring, when runoff is projected to increase by 20-30%. These results stress that the Mediterranean is a hotspot for climate change, and the use of model tools can provide very useful information to adopt water and land management strategies to deal with such changes.

Keywords: EURO-CORDEX, climate change, hydrology, SWAT model, Sardinia, multi-model ensemble

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Authors: Selvakumar Ulaganathan, Ivo Couckuyt, Francesco Ferranti, Tom Dhaene, Eric Laermans

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Variable-fidelity surrogate modelling offers an efficient way to approximate function data available in multiple degrees of accuracy each with varying computational cost. In this paper, a Kriging-based variable-fidelity surrogate modelling approach is introduced to approximate such deterministic data. Initially, individual Kriging surrogate models, which are enhanced with gradient data of different degrees of accuracy, are constructed. Then these Gradient enhanced Kriging surrogate models are strategically coupled using a recursive CoKriging formulation to provide an accurate surrogate model for the highest fidelity data. While, intuitively, gradient data is useful to enhance the accuracy of surrogate models, the primary motivation behind this work is to investigate if it is also worthwhile incorporating gradient data of varying degrees of accuracy.

Keywords: Kriging, CoKriging, Surrogate modelling, Variable- fidelity modelling, Gradients

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Authors: M. N. Amrani, H. Abanou, A. Dib

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In this paper, we proposed a strategy for optimizing the performance for a pumping structure constituted by an induction motor coupled to a centrifugal pump and improving existing results in this context. The considered system is supplied by a photovoltaic generator (GPV) through two static converters piloted in an independent manner. We opted for a maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control method based on the Neuro - Fuzzy, which is well known for its stability and robustness. To improve the induction motor performance, we use the concept of Direct Torque Control (DTC) and PID controller for motor speed to pilot the working of the induction motor. Simulations of the proposed approach give interesting results compared to the existing control strategies in this field. The model of the proposed system is simulated by MATLAB/Simulink.

Keywords: solar energy, pumping photovoltaic system, maximum power point tracking, direct torque Control (DTC), PID regulator

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Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

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This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: stock market prediction, social moods, regression model, DJIA

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Authors: Satya Pradhan, Venky Nanniyur

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As the software industry transitions from a license-based model to a subscription-based Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) model, many software development groups are using a hybrid development model that incorporates Agile and Waterfall methodologies in different parts of the organization. The traditional metrics used for measuring software quality in Waterfall or Agile paradigms do not apply to this new hybrid methodology. In addition, to respond to higher quality demands from customers and to gain a competitive advantage in the market, many companies are starting to prioritize quality as a strategic differentiator. As a result, quality metrics are included in the decision-making activities all the way up to the executive level, including board of director reviews. This paper presents key challenges associated with measuring software quality in organizations using the hybrid development model. We introduce a framework called Prevention-Inspection-Evaluation-Removal (PIER) to provide a comprehensive metric definition for hybrid organizations. The framework includes quality measurements, quality enforcement, and quality decision points at different organizational levels and project milestones. The metrics framework defined in this paper is being used for all Cisco systems products used in customer premises. We present several field metrics for one product portfolio (enterprise networking) to show the effectiveness of the proposed measurement system. As the results show, this metrics framework has significantly improved in-process defect management as well as field quality.

Keywords: quality management system, quality metrics framework, quality metrics, agile, waterfall, hybrid development system

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Authors: Qingxiang Zeng

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Since the beginning of the 21st century, China's urbanization process has rapidly progressed. Since 2005, China's developed regions have gradually entered the stage of urban conservation and updating. The over-pursuit of economic market benefits in urban construction in China has led to issues such as disrespect for residents' rights, neglect of historical context protection, and gentlemanization, which hinder urban social development in some developed urban areas. This article takes the Hubei Ancient Village renewal project in Shenzhen, China, as an example. The project took eight years to obtain government approval and implementation since its renewal proposal was launched, which has attracted attention from society and urban planning circles. Through an introduction to the project's general situation and renewal process, this article reflects on the issues of planning systems, historical context protection, conflicts between multiple values, and neglect of vulnerable groups in the Hubei Ancient Village renewal and protection project. Based on this reflection, this article summarizes the corresponding experience and provides theoretical help for urban renewal in developed regions in China, providing case references for urban renewal and construction in other developing countries and offering critical thinking and valuable experience for urban planning practitioners and policymakers.

Keywords: urban renewal, Hubei Ancient Village, historical context, public participation

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Authors: Hassan Mohmed, Mohamed Ismail, Aiman Rezk

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Introduction: This project aims to document and preserve decorated wooden coffins which were discovered in Luxor by Egyptian mission at Luxor, (SR Numbers:2514,2519,2520,2521,5469).These decorated wooden coffins dates back to Egyptian New Kingdom period and has been transferred to the Cairo Museum, to be displayed at the museum. These decorated wooden coffins discovered in the cache-tomb of Bab el-gasus at Deir el-Bahari, Luxor. This site has been dictated for the burials of priests of Amun through 18th Dynasty the coffins owners held these titles, which are as follows: "the embalmer of the beautiful-house (the place of embalming)" and "the servant in the place of truth". Methodology: Methodology: The project objectives making such decorated wooden coffins more visible to visitors through the use of 3D reconstructed coffins and high resolution photos which describe the history of using the wooden coffins during the Ancient Egyptian history Especially, The Cairo Museum is going to exhibit decorated wooden coffins in New kingdom. The project goals is to document decorated wooden coffins and arrange an exhibition, where such decorated wooden coffins going to be displayed next to the Ramses 2nd coffin, This research focuses on the text analyses and the technology. Paleographic information found on these objects. Conclusion: The project shows the importance of using coffins in Ancient Egypt, and connecting their usage through Ancient Egyptian periods; the coffins had a unique Symbolized in ancient Egypt and connect the public with their kings. The Egyptian put coffins in their tombs that they hope to save their bodies’ afterlife. This research will be beneficial and useful for the heritage and ancient civilizations, Indeed this study will open a destination in order to know how to identify these collections and how to exhibit them commensurate with the natural of the ancient Egyptian history and heritage.

Keywords: archaeology, decorated wooden coffins, 3D digital tools for heritage management, museums

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Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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SEM analysis is a complex multivariate analysis because it involves a number of exogenous and endogenous variables that are interconnected to form a model. The measurement model is divided into two, namely, the reflective model (reflecting) and the formative model (forming). Before carrying out further tests on SEM, there are assumptions that must be met, namely the linearity assumption, to determine the form of the relationship. There are three modeling approaches to path analysis, including parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches. The aim of this research is to develop semiparametric SEM and obtain the best model. The data used in the research is secondary data as the basis for the process of obtaining simulation data. Simulation data was generated with various sample sizes of 100, 300, and 500. In the semiparametric SEM analysis, the form of the relationship studied was determined, namely linear and quadratic and determined one and two knot points with various levels of error variance (EV=0.5; 1; 5). There are three levels of closeness of relationship for the analysis process in the measurement model consisting of low (0.1-0.3), medium (0.4-0.6) and high (0.7-0.9) levels of closeness. The best model lies in the form of the relationship X1Y1 linear, and. In the measurement model, a characteristic of the reflective model is obtained, namely that the higher the closeness of the relationship, the better the model obtained. The originality of this research is the development of semiparametric SEM, which has not been widely studied by researchers.

Keywords: semiparametric SEM, measurement model, structural model, reflective model, formative model

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Authors: Paolo Sassi, Jorge Freiria, Gabriel Usera

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In this work, a finite volume fluid flow solver is coupled with a discrete element method module for the simulation of the dynamics of free and elastic bodies in interaction with the fluid and between themselves. The open source fluid flow solver, caffa3d.MBRi, includes the capability to work with nested overlapping grids in order to easily refine the grid in the region where the bodies are moving. To do so, it is necessary to implement a recognition function able to identify the specific mesh block in which the device is moving in. The set of overlapping finer grids might be displaced along with the set of bodies being simulated. The interaction between the bodies and the fluid is computed through a two-way coupling. The velocity field of the fluid is first interpolated to determine the drag force on each object. After solving the objects displacements, subject to the elastic bonding among them, the force is applied back onto the fluid through a Gaussian smoothing considering the cells near the position of each object. The fishnet is represented as lumped masses connected by elastic lines. The internal forces are derived from the elasticity of these lines, and the external forces are due to drag, gravity, buoyancy and the load acting on each element of the system. When solving the ordinary differential equations system, that represents the motion of the elastic and flexible bodies, it was found that the Runge Kutta solver of fourth order is the best tool in terms of performance, but requires a finer grid than the fluid solver to make the system converge, which demands greater computing power. The coupled solver is demonstrated by simulating the interaction between the fluid, an elastic fishnet and a set of free bodies being captured by the net as they are dragged by the fluid. The deformation of the net, as well as the wake produced in the fluid stream are well captured by the method, without requiring the fluid solver mesh to adapt for the evolving geometry. Application of the same strategy to the simulation of elastic structures subject to the action of wind is also possible with the method presented, and one such application is currently under development.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, discrete element method, fishnets, nested overlapping grids

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Authors: D. H. Tejavathi

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Medicinal plants are globally valuable sources of herbal products. Wild populations of many medicinal plants are facing threat of extinction because of their narrow distribution, endemicity, and degradation of specific habitats. Micropropagation is an established in vitro technique by which large number of clones can be obtained from a small bit of explants in a short span of time within a limited space. Mycorrhization can minimize the transient transplantation shock, experienced by the micropropagated plants when they are transferred from lab to land. AM fungal association improves the physiological status of the host plants through better uptake of water and nutrients, particularly phosphorus. Consequently, the growth performance and biosynthesis of active principles are significantly enhanced in AM fungal treated plants. Bacopa monnieri, Andrographis paniculata, Agave vera-curz, Drymaria cordata and Majorana hortensis, important medicinal plants used in various indigenous systems of medicines, are selected for the present study. They form the main constituents of many herbal formulations. Standard in vitro techniques were followed to obtain the micropropagated plants. Shoot tips and nodal segments were used as explants. Explants were cultured on Murashige and Skoog, and Phillips and Collins media supplemented with various combinations of growth regulators. Multiple shoots were obtained on a media containing both auxins and cytokinins at various concentrations and combinations. Multiple shoots were then transferred to rooting media containing auxins for root induction. Thus, obtained in vitro regenerated plants were subjected to brief acclimatization before transferring them to land. One-month-old in vitro plants were treated with AM fungi, and the symbiotic effect on the overall growth parameters was analyzed. It was found that micropropagation coupled with mycorrhization has significant effect on the enhancement of biomass and biosynthesis of active principles in these selected medicinal plants. In vitro techniques coupled with mycorrhization have opened a possibility of obtaining better clones in respect of enhancement of biomass and biosynthesis of active principles. Beneficial effects of AM fungal association with medicinal plants are discussed.

Keywords: cultivation, medicinal plants, micropropagation, mycorrhization

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Authors: Venkat S. Somayajula

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Ground surface temperature history prediction model plays a vital role in determining standards for international nuclear waste management. International standards for borehole based nuclear waste disposal require paleoclimate cycle predictions on scale of a million forward years for the place of waste disposal. This research focuses on developing a paleoclimate cycle prediction model using Bayesian long-short term memory (LSTM) neural architecture operated on accumulated borehole temperature history data. Bayesian models have been previously used for paleoclimate cycle prediction based on Monte-Carlo weight method, but due to limitations pertaining model coupling with certain other prediction networks, Bayesian models in past couldn’t accommodate prediction cycle’s over 1000 years. LSTM has provided frontier to couple developed models with other prediction networks with ease. Paleoclimate cycle developed using this process will be trained on existing borehole data and then will be coupled to surface temperature history prediction networks which give endpoints for backpropagation of LSTM network and optimize the cycle of prediction for larger prediction time scales. Trained LSTM will be tested on past data for validation and then propagated for forward prediction of temperatures at borehole locations. This research will be beneficial for study pertaining to nuclear waste management, anthropological cycle predictions and geophysical features

Keywords: Bayesian long-short term memory neural network, borehole temperature, ground surface temperature history, paleoclimate cycle

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Authors: Camila Dazzi, Crisitiane Passos de Mattos, Thiago Leite

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The paper discusses the cultural identity of the communities located in Environmental Protection Area (APAs), in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro, constituted almost entirely by descendants of Swiss immigrants who arrived in Brazil in the nineteenth century. The communication is the result of an extension project named "Cultural Identity in Environmental Protection Areas of Nova Friburgo." The objectives of this project were framed in the identification of local history, cultural demonstrations, crafts, religious events, festivals, the "know-how" and traditions. While an extension project, developed by students and teachers of a Bachelor of Tourism Management program, the work provided a more practical action: awareness the communities that inhabit the APAs on the possible implementation of the cultural community-based tourism, a sustainable alternative for economic development, involving local people as propagators of local culture, and tourism as a way of valuing and safeguarding of Intangible Heritage.

Keywords: tourism and cultural heritage, tourism and cultural impacts, tourism and cultural change, cultural identity

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Authors: Shu-Hui Jan, Hui-Ping Tserng, Shih-Ping Ho

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Construction project control attempts to obtain real-time as-built schedule information and to eliminate project delays by effectively enhancing dynamic schedule control and management. Suitable platforms for enhancing an as-built schedule visually during the construction phase are necessary and important for general contractors. As the application of building information modeling (BIM) becomes more common, schedule management integrated with the BIM approach becomes essential to enhance visual construction management implementation for the general contractor during the construction phase. To enhance visualization of the updated as-built schedule for the general contractor, this study presents a novel system called the Construction BIM-assisted Schedule Management (ConBIM-SM) system for general contractors in Taiwan. The primary purpose of this study is to develop a web ConBIM-SM system for the general contractor to enhance visual as-built schedule information sharing and efficiency in tracking construction as-built schedule. Finally, the ConBIM-SM system is applied to a case study of a commerce building project in Taiwan to verify its efficacy and demonstrate its effectiveness during the construction phase. The advantages of the ConBIM-SM system lie in improved project control and management efficiency for general contractors, and in providing BIM-assisted as-built schedule tracking and management, to access the most current as-built schedule information through a web browser. The case study results show that the ConBIM-SM system is an effective visual as-built schedule management platform integrated with the BIM approach for general contractors in a construction project.

Keywords: building information modeling (BIM), construction schedule management, as-built schedule management, BIM schedule updating mechanism

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Authors: A. S. Zgalei, B. T. Al-Mabrouk

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With a particularly significant growth rate observed in the Libyan commercial and residential buildings coupled with a growth in energy demand, solar desiccant evaporative cooling offers energy savings and promises a good sharing for sustainable buildings where the availability of solar radiation matches with the cooling load demand. The paper presents a short introduction for the desiccant systems. A mathematical model of a selected system has been developed and a simulation has been performed in order to investigate the system performance at different working conditions and an optimum design of the system structure is established. The results showed a technical feasibility of the system working under the Libyan climatic conditions with a reasonable COP at temperatures that can be obtained through the solar reactivation system. Discussion of the results and the recommendations for future work are proposed.

Keywords: computer program, solar desiccant wheel cooling, system modelling, simulation, technical feasibility

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Authors: Nguyen Trong Nghia, Nguyen Huu Uy Vu, Dang Huu Phuoc, Sanjay Kumar Shukla, Le Gia Lam, Nguyen Van Cuong

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This paper introduces a matching scheme for selection of soil/drain properties in analytical solution and numerical modelling (axisymmetric and plane strain conditions) of a ground improvement project by using Prefabricated Vertical Drains (PVD) in combination with vacuum and surcharge preloading. In-situ monitoring data from a case history of a road construction project in Vietnam was adopted in the back-analysis. Analytical solution and axisymmetric analysis can approximate well the field data meanwhile the horizontal permeability need to be adjusted in plane strain scenario to achieve good agreement. In addition, the influence zone of the ground treatment was examined. The residual settlement was investigated to justify the long-term settlement in compliance with the design code. Moreover, the degree of consolidation of non-PVD sub-layers was also studied by means of two different approaches.

Keywords: numerical modelling, prefabricated vertical drains, vacuum consolidation, soft soil

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

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In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique

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Authors: Eunji Choi, Borang Park, Youngjae Choi, Jinwoo Moon

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In this study, a predictive model for estimating the metabolism (MET) of human body was developed for the optimal control of indoor thermal environment. Human body images for indoor activities and human body joint coordinated values were collected as data sets, which are used in predictive model. A deep learning algorithm was used in an initial model, and its number of hidden layers and hidden neurons were optimized. Lastly, the model prediction performance was analyzed after the model being trained through collected data. In conclusion, the possibility of MET prediction was confirmed, and the direction of the future study was proposed as developing various data and the predictive model.

Keywords: deep learning, indoor quality, metabolism, predictive model

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Authors: Tae Bo Jeon

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Korean air force is undertaking a big project to replace prevailing hundreds of old air fighters such as F-4, F-5, KF-16 etc. The task is to develop and produce domestic fighters equipped with 2 complete-type engines each. A large number of engines, however, will be purchased as products from a foreign engine maker. In addition to the fighters themselves, secure the proper number of spare engines serves a significant role in maintaining combat readiness and effectively managing the national defense budget due to high cost. In this paper, we presented a model dynamically updating spare engine requirements. Currently, the military administration purchases all the fighters, engines, and spare engines at acquisition stage and does not have additional procurement processes during the life cycle, 30-40 years. With the assumption that procurement procedure during the operational stage is established, our model starts from the initial estimate of spare engine requirements based on limited information. The model then performs military missions and repair/maintenance works when necessary. During operation, detailed field information - aircraft repair and test, engine repair, planned maintenance, administration time, transportation pipeline between base, field, and depot etc., - should be considered for actual engine requirements. At the end of each year, the performance measure is recorded and proceeds to next year when it shows higher the threshold set. Otherwise, additional engine(s) will be bought and added to the current system. We repeat the process for the life cycle period and compare the results. The proposed model is seen to generate far better results appropriately adding spare engines thus avoiding possible undesirable situations. Our model may well be applied to future air force military operations.

Keywords: DMSMS, operational availability, METRIC, PRS

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Authors: Maryam Kamali Nezhad

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As part of the project to rehabilitate the main spillway ("main") of the Rapides-des-Îles development in 2019, it was noted that there is a difference between the water level of the intake gauge and the level measured at the main spillway. The Rapides-des-Îles Generating Station is a Hydro-Québec hydroelectric generating station and dam located on the Ottawa River in the Abitibi-Témiscamingue administrative region of Québec. This plant, with an installed capacity of 176 MW, was commissioned in 1966. During the start-up meeting held at the site in May 2019, it was noticed that the water level upstream of the main spillway was considerably higher than the water level at the powerhouse intake. Measurements showed that the level was 229.46 m, whereas the normal operating level (NOL) and the critical maximum level (CML) used in the design were 228.60 m and 229.51 m, respectively. Considering that the water level had almost reached the maximum critical level of the structure despite a flood with a recurrence period of about 100 years, the work was suspended while the project was being decided. This is the first time since the Rapides des îles project was commissioned that a significant difference in elevation between the water level at the powerhouse (intake) and the main spillway has been observed. Following this observation, the contractor's work was suspended. The objective of this study is to identify the reason(s) for this problem and find solutions. Then determine the new upstream levels at the main spillway at which the safety of the structure is ensured and then adjust the engineering of the main spillway in the rehabilitation project accordingly.

Keywords: spillway, rehabilitation, water level, powerhouse, normal operating level, critical maximum level, safety of the structure

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Authors: M. Talebzadegan, S. Bina , I. Riazi

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The purpose of this paper is to present an active solar energy system to supply heating demands of the teaching staff dormitory of Islamic Azad University of Ramhormoz. The design takes into account the solar radiations and climate data of Ramhormoz town and is based on the daily warm water consumption for health demands of 450 residents of the dormitory, which is equal to 27000 lit of 50 C° water, and building heating requirements with an area of 3500 m² well-protected by heatproof materials. First, heating demands of the building were calculated, then a hybrid system made up of solar and fossil energies was developed and finally, the design was economically evaluated. Since there is only roof space for using 110 flat solar water heaters, the calculations were made to hybridize solar water heating system with heat pumping system in which solar energy contributes 67% of the heat generated. According to calculations, the Net Present Value “N.P.V.” of revenue stream exceeds “N.P.V.” of cash paid off in this project over three years, which makes economically quite promising. The return of investment and payback period of the project is 4 years. Also, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the project was 25%, which exceeds bank rate of interest in Iran and emphasizes the desirability of the project.

Keywords: solar energy, heat demand, renewable, pollution

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Authors: Alan Wan

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In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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Authors: Sara Honarparast, Omar Chaallal

Abstract:

Reinforced concrete (RC) coupled shear walls (CSWs) are very effective structural systems in resisting lateral loads due to winds and earthquakes and are particularly used in medium- to high-rise RC buildings. However, most of existing old RC structures were designed for gravity loads or lateral loads well below the loads specified in the current modern seismic international codes. These structures may behave in non-ductile manner due to poorly designed joints, insufficient shear reinforcement and inadequate anchorage length of the reinforcing bars. This has been the main impetus to investigate an appropriate strengthening method to address or attenuate the deficiencies of these structures. The objective of this paper is to twofold: (i) evaluate the seismic performance of existing reinforced concrete coupled shear walls under reversed cyclic loading; and (ii) investigate the seismic performance of RC CSWs strengthened with externally bonded (EB) carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) sheets. To this end, two CSWs were considered as follows: (a) the first one is representative of old CSWs and therefore was designed according to the 1941 National Building Code of Canada (NBCC, 1941) with conventionally reinforced coupling beams; and (b) the second one, representative of new CSWs, was designed according to modern NBCC 2015 and CSA/A23.3 2014 requirements with diagonally reinforced coupling beam. Both CSWs were simulated using ANSYS software. Nonlinear behavior of concrete is modeled using multilinear isotropic hardening through a multilinear stress strain curve. The elastic-perfectly plastic stress-strain curve is used to simulate the steel material. Bond stress–slip is modeled between concrete and steel reinforcement in conventional coupling beam rather than considering perfect bond to better represent the slip of the steel bars observed in the coupling beams of these CSWs. The old-designed CSW was strengthened using CFRP sheets bonded to the concrete substrate and the interface was modeled using an adhesive layer. The behavior of CFRP material is considered linear elastic up to failure. After simulating the loading and boundary conditions, the specimens are analyzed under reversed cyclic loading. The comparison of results obtained for the two unstrengthened CSWs and the one retrofitted with EB CFRP sheets reveals that the strengthening method improves the seismic performance in terms of strength, ductility, and energy dissipation capacity.

Keywords: carbon fiber reinforced polymer, coupled shear wall, coupling beam, finite element analysis, modern code, old code, strengthening

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: S. Wakim, M. Nemer, B. Zeghondy, B. Ghannam, C. Bouallou

Abstract:

Designing the optimal heat exchanger is still an essential objective to be achieved. Parametrical optimization involves the evaluation of the heat exchanger dimensions to find those that best satisfy certain objectives. This method contributes to an enhanced design rather than an optimized one. On the contrary, topology optimization finds the optimal structure that satisfies the design objectives. The huge development in metal additive manufacturing allowed topology optimization to find its way into engineering applications especially in the aerospace field to optimize metal structures. Using topology optimization in 3d heat and mass transfer problems requires huge computational time, therefore coupling it with CFD simulations can reduce this it. However, existed CFD models cannot be coupled with topology optimization. The CFD model must allow creating a uniform mesh despite the initial geometry complexity and also to swap the cells from fluid to solid and vice versa. In this paper, a porous media approach compatible with topology optimization criteria is developed. It consists of modeling the fluid region of the heat exchanger as porous media having high porosity and similarly the solid region is modeled as porous media having low porosity. The switching from fluid to solid cells required by topology optimization is simply done by changing each cell porosity using a user defined function. This model is tested on a plate and fin heat exchanger and validated by comparing its results to experimental data and simulations results. Furthermore, this model is used to perform a material reallocation based on local criteria to optimize a plate and fin heat exchanger under a constant heat duty constraint. The optimized fin uses 20% fewer materials than the first while the pressure drop is reduced by about 13%.

Keywords: computational methods, finite element method, heat exchanger, porous media, topology optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Myung Hwan Na, Ho- Chun Song, EunHee Hong

Abstract:

We widely use normal linear mixed-effects model to analysis data in repeated measurement. In case of detecting heteroscedasticity and the non-normality of the population distribution at the same time, normal linear mixed-effects model can give improper result of analysis. To achieve more robust estimation, we use heavy tailed linear mixed-effects model which gives more exact and reliable analysis conclusion than standard normal linear mixed-effects model.

Keywords: reliability, tires, field data, linear mixed-effects model

Procedia PDF Downloads 564

Authors: Hui Fang Huang Su, Leanne Lai, Pei-Fen Li, Mei-Hwei Ho, Yu-Wen Chiu

Abstract:

This study aimed to provide a practical, systematic, and comprehensive intervention for children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). A pilot study of quasi-experimental pre-post intervention with control group design was conducted to evaluate if the mathematical intervention (Project MIND - Math Is Not Difficult) increases the math comprehension of children with ASD Children with ASD in the primary grades (K-1, 2) participated in math interventions to enhance their math comprehension and cognitive ability. The Bracken basic concept scale was used to evaluate subjects’ language skills, cognitive development, and school readiness. The study found that our systemic interventions of Project MIND significantly improved the mathematical and cognitive abilities in children with autism. The results of this study may lead to a major change in effective and adequate health care services for children with ASD and their families. All statistical analyses were performed with the IBM SPSS Statistics Version 25 for Windows. The significant level was set at 0.05 P-value.

Keywords: autism, mathematics, technology, family

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Yassir AbdelRazig

Abstract:

Evolutionary optimization methods such as genetic algorithms have been used extensively for the construction site layout problem. More recently, ant colony optimization algorithms, which are evolutionary methods based on the foraging behavior of ants, have been successfully applied to benchmark combinatorial optimization problems. This paper proposes a formulation of the site layout problem in terms of a sequencing problem that is suitable for solution using an ant colony optimization algorithm. In the construction industry, site layout is a very important planning problem. The objective of site layout is to position temporary facilities both geographically and at the correct time such that the construction work can be performed satisfactorily with minimal costs and improved safety and working environment. During the last decade, evolutionary methods such as genetic algorithms have been used extensively for the construction site layout problem. This paper proposes an ant colony optimization model for construction site layout. A simple case study for a highway project is utilized to illustrate the application of the model.

Keywords: ant colony, construction site layout, optimization, genetic algorithms

Procedia PDF Downloads 383