Search results for: sequential causal inference

Authors: Kamelia Hamza

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Background: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are the most prescribed drug classes for pediatric gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD).Many patients are treated with these drugs for atypical manifestations attributed to gastroesophageal reflux (GER), even in the absence of proved causal relationship. There is an impression of increase use of PPI's treatment for reflux in "clalit health services," the largest health organization in Israel. In the recent years, the medicine is given without restriction, it's not limited to pediatric gastroenterologists only, but pediatricians and family doctors. The objective of this study is to evaluate the hypothesis that exposure to PPIs during the first year of life is associated with an increased risk of developing late adverse diseases: pneumonia, asthma, AGE, IBD, celiac disease, allergic disorders, obesity, attention deficit hyperactivity disorders (ADHD), autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Methods: The study is a retrospective case-control cohort study based on a computerized database of Clalit Health Services (CHS). It includes 9844 children born between 2002-2018 and reported to complain of at least one of the symptoms (reflux/ spitting up, irritability, feeding difficulties, colics). The study population included the study group (n=4922) of children exposed to PPIs at any time prior to the first year of life and a control group (n=4922) child not exposed to PPIs who were matched to each case of the study group on age, race, socioeconomic status, and year of birth. The prevalence of late complications/diseases in the study group was compared with the prevalence of late complications/diseases diagnosis between 2002-2020 in the control group. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by using logistic regression models. Results: We found that compared to the control group, children exposed to PPIs in the first year of life had an increased risk of developing several late complications/ disorders: pneumonia, asthma, various allergies (urticaria, allergic rhinitis, or allergic conjunctivitis) OR, inhalant allergies, and food allergies. In addition, they showed an increased risk of being diagnosed with ADHD or ASD, but children exposed to PPIs in the first year of life had decrease the risk of obesity by 17% (OR 0.825, 95%CI 0.697-0.976). Conclusions: We found significant associations between the use of PPIs during the first year of life and subsequent development of late complications/diseases such as respiratory diseases, allergy diseases, ADHD, and ASD. More studies are needed to prove causality and determine the mechanism behind the effect of PPIs and the development of late complications.

Keywords: acid suppressing medications, proton pump inhibitors, histamine 2 blocker, late complications, gastroesophageal reflux, gastroesophageal reflux disease, acute gastroenteritis, community acquired pneumonia, asthma, allergic diseases, obesity, inflammatory bowel diseases, ulcerative colitis, crohn disease, attention deficit hyperactivity disorders, autism spectrum disorders

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Authors: Ajay Kumar Pandey

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White grub (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), locally known as Kurmula, Pagra, Chinchu, is a major destructive pest in western Himalayan region of Uttarakhand state of India. Various crops like cereals (up land paddy, wheat, and barley), vegetables (capsicum, cabbage, tomato, cauliflower, carrot etc) and some pulse (like pigeon pea, green gram, black gram) are grown with limited availability of primary resources. Among the various limitations in successful cultivation of these crops, white grub has been proved a major constraint in for all crops grown in hilly area. The losses incurred due to white grubs are huge in case of commercial crops like sugarcane, groundnut, potato, maize and upland rice. Moreover, it has been proved major constraint in potato production in mid and higher hills of India. Adults emerge in May-June following the onset of monsoon and thereafter defoliate the apple, apricot, plum, and walnut during night while 2nd and 3rd instar grubs feed on live roots of cultivated as well as non cultivated crops from August to January. Survey was conducted in hilly (Pauri and Tehri) as well as plain area (Haridwar district) of Uttarakhand state. Collection of beetle was done from various locations from August to September of five consecutive years with the help of light trap and directly from host plant. The grub was also collected by excavating one square meter area from different locations and reared in laboratory to find out adult. During the collection, the diseased or dead cadaver were also collected and brought in the laboratory and identified the causal organisms. Total 25 species of white grub was identified out of which Holotrichia longipennis, Anomala dimidiata, Holotrichia lineatopennis, Maladera insanabilis, Brahmina sp. make complex problem in different area of Uttarakhand where they cause severe damage to various crops. During the survey, it was observed that white grubs beetles have variation in preference of host plant, even in choice of fruit and leaves of host plant. It was observed that, a white grub species, which identified as Lepidiota mansueta Burmeister., was causing severe havoc to sugarcane crop grown in major sugarcane growing belt of Haridwar district. The study also revealed that Bacillus cereus, Beauveria bassiana, Metarhizium anisopliae, Steinernema, Heterorhabditis are major disease causing agents in immature stage of white grub under rain-fed condition of Uttarakhand which caused 15.55 to 21.63 percent natural mortality of grubs with an average of 18.91 percent. However, among the microorganisms, B. cereus found to be significantly more efficient (7.03 percent mortality) then the entomopathogenic fungi (3.80 percent mortality) and nematodes (3.20 percent mortality).

Keywords: Lepidiota, profiling, Uttarakhand, whitegrub

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Authors: Quentin C.P. Bourgogne, Vanessa Bouchart, Pierre Chevrier, Emmanuel Dattoli

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This study presents an experimental and theoretical work conducted on a PolyPhenylene Sulfide reinforced with 40%wt of short glass fibers (PPS GF40) and its matrix. Thermoplastics are widely used in the automotive industry to lightweight automotive parts. The replacement of metallic parts by thermoplastics is reaching under-the-hood parts, near the engine. In this area, the parts are subjected to high temperatures and are immersed in cooling liquid. This liquid is composed of water and glycol and can affect the mechanical properties of the composite. The aim of this work was thus to quantify the evolution of mechanical properties of the thermoplastic composite, as a function of temperature and liquid aging effects, in order to develop a reliable design of parts. An experimental campaign in the tensile mode was carried out at different temperatures and for various glycol proportions in the cooling liquid, for monotonic and cyclic loadings on a neat and a reinforced PPS. The results of these tests allowed to highlight some of the main physical phenomena occurring during these solicitations under tough hydro-thermal conditions. Indeed, the performed tests showed that temperature and liquid cooling aging can affect the mechanical behavior of the material in several ways. The more the cooling liquid contains water, the more the mechanical behavior is affected. It was observed that PPS showed a higher sensitivity to absorption than to chemical aggressiveness of the cooling liquid, explaining this dominant sensitivity. Two kinds of behaviors were noted: an elasto-plastic type under the glass transition temperature and a visco-pseudo-plastic one above it. It was also shown that viscosity is the leading phenomenon above the glass transition temperature for the PPS and could also be important under this temperature, mostly under cyclic conditions and when the stress rate is low. Finally, it was observed that soliciting this composite at high temperatures is decreasing the advantages of the presence of fibers. A new phenomenological model was then built to take into account these experimental observations. This new model allowed the prediction of the evolution of mechanical properties as a function of the loading environment, with a reduced number of parameters compared to precedent studies. It was also shown that the presented approach enables the description and the prediction of the mechanical response with very good accuracy (2% of average error at worst), over a wide range of hydrothermal conditions. A temperature-humidity equivalence principle was underlined for the PPS, allowing the consideration of aging effects within the proposed model. Then, a limit of improvement of the reachable accuracy was determinate for all models using this set of data by the application of an artificial intelligence-based model allowing a comparison between artificial intelligence-based models and phenomenological based ones.

Keywords: aging, analytical modeling, mechanical testing, polymer matrix composites, sequential model, thermomechanical

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Mrunal Phatak

Abstract:

Introduction: Thyroid hormone is important for the normal function of the auditory system. Hearing impairment can occur insidiously in subclinical hypothyroidism. The present study was undertaken with the aim of evaluating audiological tests like tuning fork tests, pure tone audiometry, brainstem evoked auditory potentials (BAEPs), and auditory reaction time (ART) in hypothyroid women and in age and sex-matched controls to evaluate the effect of thyroid hormone on hearing. The objective of the study was to investigate hearing status by the audiological profile in hypothyroidism (group 1) and healthy controls (group 2) to compare the audiological profile between these groups and find the correlation of levels of TSH, T3 and T4 with the above parameters. Material and methods: A total sample size of 124 women in the age group of 30 to 50 years was recruited and divided into the Cases group comprising 62 newly diagnosed hypothyroid women and a Control group having 62 women with normal thyroid profiles. Otoscopic examination, tuning fork tests, Pure tone audiometry tests (PTA). Brain Stem Auditory Evoked Potential (BAEP) and Auditory Reaction Time (ART) were done in both ears, i.e., a total of 248 ears of all subjects. Results: By BAEPs, hearing impairment was detected in a total of 64 years (51.61%). A significant increase was seen in Wave V latency, IPL I-V and IPL III-V, and the decrease was seen in the amplitude of Wave I and V in both the ears cases. A positive correlation of Wave V latency of the Right and Left ears is seen with TSH levels (p < 0.001) and a negative correlation with T3 (>0.05) and with T4 (p < 0.01). The negative correlation of wave V amplitude of the Right and Left ears is seen with TSH levels (p < 0.001), and a significant positive correlation is seen with T3 and T4. Pure tone audiometry parameters showed hearing impairment of conductive (31.29%), sensorineural (36.29%), as well as mixed type (15.32%). Hearing loss was mild in 65.32% of ears and moderate in 17.74% of ears. Pure tone averages (PTA) were significantly increased in cases than in controls in both ears. A significant positive correlation of PTA of Right and Left ears is seen with TSH levels (p<0.05). A negative correlation between T3 and T4 is seen. A significant increase in HF ART and LF ART is seen in cases as compared to controls. A positive correlation between ART of high frequency and low frequency is seen with TSH levels and a negative correlation with T3 and T4 (p > 0.05). Conclusion: The abnormal BAEPs in hypothyroid women suggest an impaired central auditory pathway. BAEP abnormalities are indicative of a nonspecific injury in the bulbo-ponto-mesencephalic centers. The results of auditory investigations suggest a causal relationship between hypothyroidism and hearing loss. The site of lesion in the auditory pathway is probably at several levels, namely, in the middle ear and at cochlear and retrocochlear sites. Prolonged ART also suggests an impairment in central processing mechanisms. The results of the present study conclude that the probable reason for hearing impairment in hypothyroidism may be delayed impulse conduction in the acoustic nerve up to the level of the midbrain (IPL I-V, III-V), particularly the inferior colliculus (wave V). There is also impairment in central processing mechanisms, as shown by prolonged ART.

Keywords: hypothyroidism, deafness, pure tone audiometry, brain stem auditory evoked potential

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Authors: Mrunal Phatak, Suvarna Raut

Abstract:

Introduction: Thyroid hormone is important for the normal function of the auditory system. Hearing impairment can occur insidiously in subclinical hypothyroidism. The present study was undertaken with the aims of evaluating audiological tests like tuning fork tests, pure tone audiometry, brainstem evoked auditory potentials (BAEPs), and auditory reaction time (ART) in hypothyroid women and in age and sex matched controls so as to evaluate the effect of thyroid hormone on hearing. The objective of the study was to investigate hearing status by the audiological profile in hypothyroidism (group 1) and healthy controls ( group 2) to compare the audiological profile between these groups and find the correlation of levels of TSH, T3, and T4 with the above parameters. Material and methods: A total sample size of 124 women in the age group of 30 to 50 years was recruited and divided into the Cases group comprising of 62 newly diagnosed hypothyroid women and the Control group having 62 women with normal thyroid profile. Otoscopic examination, tuning fork tests, Pure tone audiometry tests (PTA). Brain Stem Auditory Evoked Potential (BAEP) and Auditory Reaction Time (ART) were done in both ears, i.e. total 248 ears of all subjects. Results: By BAEPs, hearing impairment was detected in total 64 ears (51.61%). A significant increase was seen in Wave V latency, IPL I-V, and IPL III-V, and the decrease was seen in the amplitude of Wave I and V in both the ears in cases. Positive correlation of Wave V latency of Right and Left ears is seen with TSH levels (p < 0.001) and a negative correlation with T3 (>0.05) and with T4 (p < 0.01). Negative correlation of wave V amplitude of Right and Left ears is seen with TSH levels (p < 0.001), and a significant positive correlation is seen with T3 and T4. Pure tone audiometry parameters showed hearing impairment of conductive (31.29%), sensorineural (36.29%), as well as the mixed type (15.32%). Hearing loss was mild in 65.32% of ears and moderate in 17.74% of ears. Pure tone averages (PTA) were significantly increased in cases than in controls in both the ears. Significant positive correlation of PTA of Right and Left ears is seen with TSH levels (p<0.05). Negative correlation with T3 and T4 is seen. A significant increase in HF ART and LF ART is seen in cases as compared to controls. Positive correlation of ART of high frequency and low frequency is seen with TSH levels and a negative correlation with T3 and T4 (p > 0.05). Conclusion: The abnormal BAEPs in hypothyroid women suggest an impaired central auditory pathway. BAEP abnormalities are indicative of a nonspecific injury in the bulbo-ponto-mesencephalic centres. The results of auditory investigations suggest a causal relationship between hypothyroidism and hearing loss. The site of lesion in the auditory pathway is probably at several levels, namely, in the middle ear and at cochlear and retrocochlear sites. Prolonged ART also suggests the impairment in central processing mechanisms. The results of the present study conclude that the probable reason for hearing impairment in hypothyroidism may be delayed impulse conduction in acoustic nerve up to the level of the midbrain (IPL I-V, III-V), particularly inferior colliculus (wave V). There is also impairment in central processing mechanisms, as shown by prolonged ART.

Keywords: deafness, pure tone audiometry, brain stem auditory evoked potential, hyopothyroidism

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Authors: Rafael Alexandre Dos Reis

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Research has shown a substantial increase in the participation of Conventionally Fuelled Vehicles (CFVs) in the urban transport modal split. The reasons for this unsustainable reality are multiple, from economic interventions to individual behaviour. The development and delivery of positive incentives for the adoption of more environmental-friendly modes of transport is an emerging strategy to help in tackling the problem of excessive use of conventionally fuelled vehicles. The efficiency of this approach, like other information-based schemes, can benefit from the knowledge of their potential impacts in theoretical constructs of multiple behaviour change theories. The goal of this research is to critically analyse theories of behaviour that are relevant to transport research and the impacts of positive incentives on the theoretical determinants of behaviour, strengthening the current body of evidence about the benefits of this approach. The main method to investigate this will involve a literature review on two main topics: the current theories of behaviour that have empirical support in transport research and the past or ongoing positive incentives programs that had an impact on car use reduction. The reviewed programs of positive incentives were the following: The TravelSmart®; Spitsmijden®; Incentives for Singapore Commuters® (INSINC); COMMUTEGREENER®; MOVESMARTER®; STREETLIFE®; SUPERHUB®; SUNSET® and the EMPOWER® project. The theories analysed were the heory of Planned Behaviour (TPB); The Norm Activation Theory (NAM); Social Learning Theory (SLT); The Theory of Interpersonal Behaviour (TIB); The Goal-Setting Theory (GST) and The Value-Belief-Norm Theory (VBN). After the revisions of the theoretical constructs of each of the theories and their influence on car use, it can be concluded that positive incentives schemes impact on behaviour change in the following manners: -Changing individual’s attitudes through informational incentives; -Increasing feelings of moral obligations to reduce the use of CFVs; -Increase the perceived social pressure to engage in more sustainable mobility behaviours through the use of comparison mechanisms in social media, for example; -Increase the perceived control of behaviour through informational incentives and training incentives; -Increasing personal norms with reinforcing information; -Providing tools for self-monitoring and self-evaluation; -Providing real experiences in alternative modes to the car; -Making the observation of others’ car use reduction possible; -Informing about consequences of behaviour and emphasizing the individual’s responsibility with society and the environment; -Increasing the perception of the consequences of car use to an individual’s valued objects; -Increasing the perceived ability to reduce threats to environment; -Help establishing goals to reduce car use; - iving personalized feedback on the goal; -Increase feelings of commitment to the goal; -Reducing the perceived complexity of the use of alternatives to the car. It is notable that the emerging technique of delivering positive incentives are systematically connected to causal determinants of travel behaviour. The preliminary results of the reviewed programs evidence how positive incentives might strengthen these determinants and help in the process of behaviour change.

Keywords: positive incentives, private car use reduction, sustainable behaviour, voluntary travel behaviour change

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Authors: Nien-Te Kuo, Yi-Sung Cheng, Kuo-Chien Chang

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Cultural festival tourism is now seen by many as an opportunity to facilitate community development because it has significant influences on the economic, social, cultural, and political aspects of local communities. The potential for tourist attraction has been recognized as a useful tool to strengthen local economies from governments. However, most community festivals in Taiwan are short-lived, often only lasting for a few years or occasionally not making it past a one-off event. Researchers suggested that most governments and other stakeholders do not recognize the importance of building a partnership with residents when developing community tourism. Thus, the sustainable community tourism development still remains a key issue in the existing literature. The success of community tourism is related to the attitudes and lifestyles of local residents. In order to maintain sustainable tourism, residents need to be seen as development partners. Residents’ support intention for tourism development not only helps to increase awareness of local culture, history, the natural environment, and infrastructure, but also improves the interactive relationship between the host community and tourists. Furthermore, researchers have identified the social capital theory as the core of sustainable community tourism development. The social capital of residents has been seen as a good way to solve issues of tourism governance, forecast the participation behavior and improve support intention of residents. In addition, previous studies have pointed out the role of community participation and place identity in increasing resident support intention for tourism development. A lack of place identity is one of the main reasons that community tourism has become a mere formality and is not sustainable. It refers to how much residents participate during tourism development and is mainly influenced by individual interest. Scholars believed that the place identity of residents is the soul of community festivals. It shows the community spirit to visitors and has significant impacts on tourism benefits and support intention of residents in community tourism development. Although the importance of community participation and place identity have been confirmed by both governmental and non-governmental organizations, real-life execution still needs to be improved. This study aimed to use social capital theory to investigate the social structure between community residents, participation levels in festival tourism, degrees of place identity, and resident support intention for future community tourism development, and the causal relationship that these factors have with cultural festival tourism. A quantitative research approach was employed to examine the proposed model. Structural equation model was used to test and verify the proposed hypotheses. This was a case study of the Kaohsiung Zuoying Wannian Folklore Festival. The festival was located in the Zuoying District of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. The target population of this study was residents who attended the festival. The results reveal significant correlations among social capital, community participation, place identity and support intention. The results also confirm that impacts of social capital on support intention were significantly mediated by community participation and place identity. Practical suggestions were provided for tourism operators and policy makers. This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan, Republic of China, under the grant MOST-105-2410-H-328-013.

Keywords: community participation, place identity, social capital, support intention

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Authors: Motaz Alsolaim

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Nowadays, the challenges of running a start-up can be very complex and are perhaps more difficult than at any other time in the past. Changes in technology, manufacturing innovation, and product development, combined with intense competition and market regulations are factors that have put pressure on classic ways of managing firms, thereby forcing change. As a result, the rate of closure, exit or discontinuation of start-ups and young businesses is very high. Despite the essential role of small firms in an economy, they still tend to face obstacles that exert a negative influence on their performance and rate of survival. In fact, it is not easy to determine with any certainty the reasons why small firms fail. For this reason, failure itself is not clearly defined, and its exact causes are hard to diagnose. In this current study, therefore, the barriers to survival will be covered more broadly, especially personal/entrepreneurial, enterprise and environmental factors with regard to various possible reasons for this failure, in order to determine the best solutions and make appropriate recommendations. Methodology: It could be argued that mixed methods might help to improve entrepreneurship research addressing challenges emphasis in previous studies and to achieve the triangulation. Calls for the combined use of quantitative and qualitative research were also made in the entrepreneurship field since entrepreneurship is a multi-faceted area of research. Therefore, explanatory sequential mixed method was used, using questionnaire online survey for entrepreneurs, followed by semi-structure interview. Collecting over 750 surveys and accepting 296 valid surveys, after that 13 interviews from government official seniors, businessmen successful entrepreneurs, and non-successful entrepreneurs. Findings: The first phase findings ( quantitative) shows the obstacles to survive; starting from the personal/ entrepreneurial factors such as; past work experience, lack of skills and interest, are positive factors, while; gender, age and education level of the owner are negative factors. Internal factors such as lack of marketing research and weak business planning are positive. The environmental factors; in economic perspectives; difficulty to find labors, in socio-cultural perspectives; Social restriction and traditions found to be a negative factors. In other hand, from the political perspective; cost of compliance and insufficient government plans found to be a positive factors for small business failure. From infrastructure perspective; lack of skills labor, high level of bureaucracy and lack of information are positive factors. Conclusion: This paper serves to enrich the understanding of failure factors in MENA region more precisely in SA, by minimizing the probability of failure in small-micro entrepreneurial start-up in SA, in the light of the Saudi government’s Vision 2030 plan.

Keywords: small business barriers, start-up business, entrepreneurship, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Tomola Obamuyi

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The banking system in Nigeria adopted innovative banking, with the aim of enhancing financial inclusion, and making financial services readily and cheaply available to majority of the people, and to contribute to the efficiency of the financial system. Some of the innovative services include: Automatic Teller Machines (ATMs), National Electronic Fund Transfer (NEFT), Point of Sale (PoS), internet (Web) banking, Mobile Money payment (MMO), Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS), agent banking, among others. The introduction of these payment systems is expected to increase bank efficiency and customers' satisfaction, culminating in better performance for the commercial banks. However, opinions differ on the possible effects of the various innovative payment systems on the performance of commercial banks in the country. Thus, this study empirically determines how commercial banks use innovation to gain competitive advantage in the specific context of Nigeria's finance and business. The study also analyses the effects of financial innovation on the performance of commercial banks, when different periods of analysis are considered. The study employed secondary data from 2009 to 2018, the period that witnessed aggressive innovation in the financial sector of the country. The Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimation technique forecasts the relative variance of each random innovation to the variables in the VAR, examine the effect of standard deviation shock to one of the innovations on current and future values of the impulse response and determine the causal relationship between the variables (VAR granger causality test). The study also employed the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) to rank the innovations and the performance criteria of Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE). The entropy method of MCDM was used to determine which of the performance criteria better reflect the contributions of the various innovations in the banking sector. On the other hand, the Range of Values (ROV) method was used to rank the contributions of the seven innovations to performance. The analysis was done based on medium term (five years) and long run (ten years) of innovations in the sector. The impulse response function derived from the VAR system indicated that the response of ROA to the values of cheques transaction, values of NEFT transactions, values of POS transactions was positive and significant in the periods of analysis. The paper also confirmed with entropy and range of value that, in the long run, both the CHEQUE and MMO performed best while NEFT was next in performance. The paper concluded that commercial banks would enhance their performance by continuously improving on the services provided through Cheques, National Electronic Fund Transfer and Point of Sale since these instruments have long run effects on their performance. This will increase the confidence of the populace and encourage more usage/patronage of these services. The banking sector will in turn experience better performance which will improve the economy of the country. Keywords: Bank performance, financial innovation, multi-criteria decision making, vector autoregression,

Keywords: Bank performance, financial innovation, multi-criteria decision making, vector autoregression

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Authors: Burmansyah Muhammad, Supriyoto Supriyoto

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Crop yield, quality and food safety are three important components that all estate and food crops must put into consideration to lifting the economic value. These measurements should be evaluated because marketplace demand is simultaneously changing and farmers must adapt quickly to remain competitive. The increase in economic value could be done by producing high quality product that aligns with harvest collector preferences. The purpose of this study is to examine the causal effects of value added farming in agriculture economic aspects towards crop yield, quality and food security. This research is using descriptive survey research by employing data from small-scale cocoa farmers listed to off-taker company, located on Sulawesi area of Indonesia. The questionnaire was obtained from 650 cocoa farmers, selected randomly. Major findings of the study indicate that 78% of respondents agree that agriculture inputs have positive effect on crop yield, quality and food safety. The study recommended that cocoa stakeholders should ensure access to agriculture inputs in first priority and then followed by ensuring access to cocoa supply chain trader and micro-financing. Value Added Farming refers to lifting the economic value of a commodity through particular intervention. Regarding access to agriculture inputs, one of significant intervention is fertilization and plant nutrition management, both organic and inorganic fertilizer. Small-scale cocoa farmers can get access to fertilizer intervention through establishment of demo farm. Ordinary demo farm needs large area, selective requirements, lots of field resources and centralization impact. On the contrary, satellite demo farm is developing to wide-spread the impact of agriculture economic aspects and also the involvement in number of farmers. In Sulawesi Project, we develop leveling strata of small-scale demo farm with group of farmers and local cooperative. With this methodology, all of listed small-scale farmers can get access to agriculture input, micro-financing and how to deliver quality output. PT Pupuk Kaltim is member firm of holding company PT Pupuk Indonesia, private company belongs to the government of Indonesia. The company listed as Indonesia's largest producer of urea fertilizers, besides ammonia, Compound Fertilizer (NPK) and biological fertilizers. To achieve strategic objectives, the company has distinguished award such as SNI Platinum, SGS Award IFA Protect and Sustain Stewardship and Gold Rank of Environment Friendly Company. This achievement has become the strategic foundation for our company to energize value added farming in sustaining food security program. Moreover, to ensure cocoa sustainability farming the company has developed partnership with international companies and Non-Government Organization (NGO).

Keywords: fertilizer and plant nutrition management, good agriculture practices, agriculture economic aspects, value-added farming

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Authors: Serhat Tüzün, Tufan Demirel

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Decision Support Systems (DSS) have been investigated by researchers and technologists for more than 35 years. This paper analyses the developments in the architecture and software of these systems, provides a systematic analysis for different Web-based DSS approaches and Intelligent Decision-making Technologies (IDT), with the suggestion for future studies. Decision Support Systems literature begins with building model-oriented DSS in the late 1960s, theory developments in the 1970s, and the implementation of financial planning systems and Group DSS in the early and mid-80s. Then it documents the origins of Executive Information Systems, online analytic processing (OLAP) and Business Intelligence. The implementation of Web-based DSS occurred in the mid-1990s. With the beginning of the new millennia, intelligence is the main focus on DSS studies. Web-based technologies are having a major impact on design, development and implementation processes for all types of DSS. Web technologies are being utilized for the development of DSS tools by leading developers of decision support technologies. Major companies are encouraging its customers to port their DSS applications, such as data mining, customer relationship management (CRM) and OLAP systems, to a web-based environment. Similarly, real-time data fed from manufacturing plants are now helping floor managers make decisions regarding production adjustment to ensure that high-quality products are produced and delivered. Web-based DSS are being employed by organizations as decision aids for employees as well as customers. A common usage of Web-based DSS has been to assist customers configure product and service according to their needs. These systems allow individual customers to design their own products by choosing from a menu of attributes, components, prices and delivery options. The Intelligent Decision-making Technologies (IDT) domain is a fast growing area of research that integrates various aspects of computer science and information systems. This includes intelligent systems, intelligent technology, intelligent agents, artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, neural networks, machine learning, knowledge discovery, computational intelligence, data science, big data analytics, inference engines, recommender systems or engines, and a variety of related disciplines. Innovative applications that emerge using IDT often have a significant impact on decision-making processes in government, industry, business, and academia in general. This is particularly pronounced in finance, accounting, healthcare, computer networks, real-time safety monitoring and crisis response systems. Similarly, IDT is commonly used in military decision-making systems, security, marketing, stock market prediction, and robotics. Even though lots of research studies have been conducted on Decision Support Systems, a systematic analysis on the subject is still missing. Because of this necessity, this paper has been prepared to search recent articles about the DSS. The literature has been deeply reviewed and by classifying previous studies according to their preferences, taxonomy for DSS has been prepared. With the aid of the taxonomic review and the recent developments over the subject, this study aims to analyze the future trends in decision support systems.

Keywords: decision support systems, intelligent decision-making, systematic analysis, taxonomic review

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Authors: Supriya Majumder, Pabitra Banik

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Fates of Arsenic (As) on the soil-plant environment belong to the critical emerging issue, which in turn to appraises the threatening implications of a human health risk — assessing the dynamics of As in soil solid components are likely to impose its potential availability towards plant uptake. In the present context, we introduced an improved Sequential Extraction Procedure (SEP) questioning to identify solid-phase speciation of As in paddy soil under variable soil environmental conditions during two consecutive seasons of rice cultivation practices. We coupled gradients of water management practices with the addition of fertilizer amendments to assess the changes in a partition of As through a field experimental study during monsoon and post-monsoon season using two rice cultivars. Water management regimes were varied based on the methods of cultivation of rice by Conventional (waterlogged) vis-a-vis System of Rice Intensification-SRI (saturated). Fertilizer amendment through the nutrient treatment of absolute control, NPK-RD, NPK-RD + Calcium silicate, NPK-RD + Ferrous sulfate, Farmyard manure (FYM), FYM + Calcium silicate, FYM + Ferrous sulfate, Vermicompost (VC), VC + Calcium silicate, VC + Ferrous sulfate were selected to construct the study. After harvest, soil samples were sequentially extracted to estimate partition of As among the different fractions such as: exchangeable (F1), specifically sorbed (F2), As bound to amorphous Fe oxides (F3), crystalline Fe oxides (F4), organic matter (F5) and residual phase (F6). Results showed that the major proportions of As were found in F3, F4 and F6, whereas F1 exhibited the lowest proportion of total soil As. Among the nutrient treatment mediated changes on As fractions, the application of organic manure and ferrous sulfate were significantly found to restrict the release of As from exchangeable phase. Meanwhile, conventional practice produced much higher release of As from F1 as compared to SRI, which may substantially increase the environmental risk. In contrast, SRI practice was found to retain a significantly higher proportion of As in F2, F3, and F4 phase resulting restricted mobilization of As. This was critically reflected towards rice grain As bioavailability where the reduction in grain As concentration of 33% and 55% in SRI concerning conventional treatment (p <0.05) during monsoon and post-monsoon season respectively. Also, prediction assay for rice grain As bioavailability based on the linear regression model was performed. Results demonstrated that rice grain As concentration was positively correlated with As concentration in F1 and negatively correlated with F2, F3, and F4 with a satisfactory level of variation being explained (p <0.001). Finally, we conclude that F1, F2, F3 and F4 are the major soil. As fractions critically may govern the potential availability of As in soil and suggest that rice cultivation with the SRI treatment is particularly at less risk of As availability in soil. Such exhaustive information may be useful for adopting certain management practices for rice grown in contaminated soil concerning to the environmental issues in particular.

Keywords: arsenic, fractionation, paddy soil, potential availability

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Authors: Sascha Kraus, Wolfgang Hora, Philipp Stieg, Thomas Niemand, Ferdinand Thies, Matthias Filser

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In most countries, small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) are the backbone of the economy due to their impact on job creation, innovation and wealth creation. Moreover, the ongoing globalization makes it inevitable – even for SME that traditionally focused on their domestic markets – to internationalize their business activities to realize further growth and survive in international markets. Thus, internationalization has become one of the most common growth strategies for SME and has received increasing scholarly attention over the last two decades. One the downside internationalization can be also regarded as the most complex strategy that a firm can undertake. Particularly for family firms, that are often characterized by limited financial capital, a risk-averse nature and limited growth aspirations, it could be argued that family firms are more likely to face greater challenges when taking the pathway to internationalization. Especially the triangulation of family, ownership, and management (so-called ‘familiness’) manifests in a unique behavior and decision-making process which is often characterized by the importance given to noneconomic goals and distinguishes a family firm from other businesses. Taking this into account, the concept of socio-emotional wealth (SEW) has been evolved to describe the behavior of family firms. In order to investigate how different internal and external firm characteristics shape internationalization success of family firms, we drew on a sample consisting of 297 small and medium-sized family firms from Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein. Thus, we include SEW as essential family firm characteristic and added the two major intra-organizational characteristics, entrepreneurial orientation (EO), absorptive capacity (AC) as well as collaboration intensity (CI) and relational knowledge (RK) as two major external network characteristics. Based on previous research we assume that these characteristics are important to explain internationalization success of family firm SME. Regarding the data analysis, we applied a Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), an approach that allows identifying configurations of firm characteristics, specifically used to study complex causal relationships where traditional regression techniques reach their limits. Results indicate that several combinations of these family firm characteristics can lead to international success, with no permanently required key characteristic. Instead, there are many roads to walk down for family firms to achieve internationalization success. Consequently, our data states that family owned SME are heterogeneous and internationalization is a complex and dynamic process. Results further show that network related characteristics occur in all sets, thus represent an essential element in the internationalization process of family owned SME. The contribution of our study is twofold, as we investigate different forms of international expansion for family firms and how to improve them. First, we are able to broaden the understanding of the intersection between family firm and SME internationalization with respect to major intra-organizational and network-related variables. Second, from a practical perspective, we offer family firm owners a basis for setting up internal capabilities to achieve international success.

Keywords: entrepreneurial orientation, family firm, fsQCA, internationalization, socio-emotional wealth

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Authors: Meiling Yu, Nadia Rouatbi, Khuloud T. Al-Jamal

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Background: Treatment of neurological disorders with modern medical and surgical approaches remains difficult. Gene therapy, allowing the delivery of genetic materials that encodes potential therapeutic molecules, represents an attractive option. The treatment of brain diseases with gene therapy requires the gene-editing tool to be delivered efficiently to the central nervous system. In this study, we explored the efficiency of different delivery routes, namely intravenous (i.v.), intra-cranial (i.c.), and intra-nasal (i.n.), to deliver stable nucleic acid-lipid particles (SNALPs) containing gene-editing tools namely Cas9 mRNA and sgRNA encoding for GFP as a reporter protein. We hypothesise that SNALPs can reach the brain and perform gene-editing to different extents depending on the administration route. Intranasal administration (i.n.) offers an attractive and non-invasive way to access the brain circumventing the blood–brain barrier. Successful delivery of gene-editing tools to the brain offers a great opportunity for therapeutic target validation and nucleic acids therapeutics delivery to improve treatment options for a range of neurodegenerative diseases. In this study, we utilised Rosa26-Cas9 knock-in mice, expressing GFP, to study brain distribution and gene-editing efficiency of SNALPs after i.v.; i.c. and i.n. routes of administration. Methods: Single guide RNA (sgRNA) against GFP has been designed and validated by in vitro nuclease assay. SNALPs were formulated and characterised using dynamic light scattering. The encapsulation efficiency of nucleic acids (NA) was measured by RiboGreen™ assay. SNALPs were incubated in serum to assess their ability to protect NA from degradation. Rosa26-Cas9 knock-in mice were i.v., i.n., or i.c. administered with SNALPs to test in vivo gene-editing (GFP knockout) efficiency. SNALPs were given as three doses of 0.64 mg/kg sgGFP following i.v. and i.n. or a single dose of 0.25 mg/kg sgGFP following i.c.. knockout efficiency was assessed after seven days using Sanger Sequencing and Inference of CRISPR Edits (ICE) analysis. In vivo, the biodistribution of DiR labelled SNALPs (SNALPs-DiR) was assessed at 24h post-administration using IVIS Lumina Series III. Results: Serum-stable SNALPs produced were 130-140 nm in diameter with ~90% nucleic acid loading efficiency. SNALPs could reach and stay in the brain for up to 24h following i.v.; i.n. and i.c. administration. Decreasing GFP expression (around 50% after i.v. and i.c. and 20% following i.n.) was confirmed by optical imaging. Despite the small number of mice used, ICE analysis confirmed GFP knockout in mice brains. Additional studies are currently taking place to increase mice numbers. Conclusion: Results confirmed efficient gene knockout achieved by SNALPs in Rosa26-Cas9 knock-in mice expressing GFP following different routes of administrations in the following order i.v.= i.c.> i.n. Each of the administration routes has its pros and cons. The next stages of the project involve assessing gene-editing efficiency in wild-type mice and replacing GFP as a model target with therapeutic target genes implicated in Motor Neuron Disease pathology.

Keywords: CRISPR, nanoparticles, brain diseases, administration routes

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Authors: Henok Biruk Alemayehu, Kalkidan Berhane Tsegaye, Fozia Seid Ali, Nebiyat Feleke Adimassu, Getasew Alemu Mersha

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Background: Strabismus is a visual disorder where the eyes are misaligned and point in different directions. Untreated strabismus can lead to amblyopia, loss of binocular vision, and social stigma due to its appearance. Since it is assumed that knowledge is pertinent for early screening and prevention of strabismus, the main objective of this study was to assess knowledge and attitudes toward strabismus in Woreta town, Northwest Ethiopia. Providing data in this area is important for planning health policies. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was done in Woreta town from April–May 2020. The sample size was determined using a single population proportion formula by taking a 50% proportion of good knowledge, 95% confidence level, 5% margin of errors, and 10% non- response rate. Accordingly, the final computed sample size was 424. All four kebeles were included in the study. There were 42,595 people in total, with 39,684 adults and 9229 house holds. A sample fraction ’’k’’ was obtained by dividing the number of the household by the calculated sample size of 424. Systematic random sampling with proportional allocation was used to select the participating households with a sampling fraction (K) of 21 i.e. each household was approached in every 21 households included in the study. One individual was selected ran- domly from each household with more than one adult, using the lottery method to obtain a final sample size. The data was collected through a face-to-face interview with a pretested and semi-structured questionnaire which was translated from English to Amharic and back to English to maintain its consistency. Data were entered using epi-data version 3.1, then processed and analyzed via SPSS version- 20. Descriptive and analytical statistics were employed to summarize the data. A p-value of less than 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance. Result: A total of 401 individuals aged over 18 years participated, with a response rate of 94.5%. Of those who responded, 56.6% were males. Of all the participants, 36.9% were illiterate. The proportion of people with poor knowledge of strabismus was 45.1%. It was shown that 53.9% of the respondents had a favorable attitude. Older age, higher educational level, having a history of eye examination, and a having a family history of strabismus were significantly associated with good knowledge of strabismus. A higher educational level, older age, and hearing about strabismus were significantly associated with a favorable attitude toward strabismus. Conclusion and recommendation: The proportion of good knowledge and favorable attitude towards strabismus were lower than previously reported in Gondar City, Northwest Ethiopia. There is a need to provide health education and promotion campaigns on strabismus to the community: what strabismus is, its’ possible treatments and the need to bring children to the eye care center for early diagnosis and treatment. it advocate for prospective research endeavors to employ qualitative study design.Additionally, it suggest the exploration of studies that investigate causal-effect relationship.

Keywords: strabismus, knowledge, attitude, Woreta

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Authors: T. C. C. Soo, S. Bhassu

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Unlike the common presence of both innate and adaptive immunity in vertebrates, crustaceans, in particular, shrimps, have been discovered to possess only innate immunity. This further emphasizes the importance of innate immunity within shrimps in pathogenic resistance. Under the study of pathogenic immune challenge, different shrimp species actually exhibit varying degrees of immune resistance towards the same pathogen. Furthermore, even within the same shrimp species, different batches of challenged shrimps can have different strengths of immune defence. Several important pathways are activated within shrimps during pathogenic infection. One of them is JAK-STAT pathway that is activated during bacterial, viral and fungal infections by which STAT(Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription) gene is the core element of the pathway. Based on theory of Central Dogma, the genomic information is transmitted in the order of DNA, RNA and protein. This study is focused in uncovering the important evolutionary patterns present within the DNA (non-coding region) and RNA (coding region). The three shrimp species involved are Macrobrachium rosenbergii, Penaeus monodon and Litopenaeus vannamei which all possess commercial significance. The shrimp species were challenged with a famous penaeid shrimp virus called white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) which can cause serious lethality. Tissue samples were collected during time intervals of 0h, 3h, 6h, 12h, 24h, 36h and 48h. The DNA and RNA samples were then extracted using conventional kits from the hepatopancreas tissue samples. PCR technique together with designed STAT gene conserved primers were utilized for identification of the STAT coding sequences using RNA-converted cDNA samples and subsequent characterization using various bioinformatics approaches including Ramachandran plot, ProtParam and SWISS-MODEL. The varying levels of immune STAT gene activation for the three shrimp species during WSSV infection were confirmed using qRT-PCR technique. For one sample, three biological replicates with three technical replicates each were used for qRT-PCR. On the other hand, DNA samples were important for uncovering the structural variations within the genomic region of STAT gene which would greatly assist in understanding the STAT protein functional variations. The partially-overlapping primers technique was used for the genomic region sequencing. The evolutionary inferences and event predictions were then conducted through the Bayesian Inference method using all the acquired coding and non-coding sequences. This was supplemented by the construction of conventional phylogenetic trees using Maximum likelihood method. The results showed that adaptive evolution caused STAT gene sequence mutations between different shrimp species which led to evolutionary divergence event. Subsequently, the divergent sites were correlated to the differing expressions of STAT gene. Ultimately, this study assists in knowing the shrimp species innate immune variability and selection of disease resistant shrimps for breeding purpose. The deeper understanding of STAT gene evolution from the perspective of both purifying and adaptive approaches not only can provide better immunological insight among shrimp species, but also can be used as a good reference for immunological studies in humans or other model organisms.

Keywords: gene evolution, JAK-STAT pathway, immunology, STAT gene

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Authors: Teresa Carlone, Matteo Mannocchi

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In the last decade, a growing number of International Organizations are pushing toward green solutions for adaptation to climate change. This is particularly true in the field of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and land planning, where Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) had been sponsored through funding programs and planning tools. Stakeholder engagement and co-creation of NBS is growing as a practice and research field in environmental projects, fostering the consolidation of a multidisciplinary socio-ecological approach in addressing hydro-meteorological risk. Even thou research and financial interests are constantly spread, the NBS mainstreaming process is still at an early stage as innovative concepts and practices make it difficult to be fully accepted and adopted by a multitude of different actors to produce wide scale societal change. The monitoring and impact evaluation of stakeholders’ participation in these processes represent a crucial aspect and should be seen as a continuous and integral element of the co-creation approach. However, setting up a fit for purpose-monitoring strategy for different contexts is not an easy task, and multiple challenges emerge. In this scenario, the Horizon 2020 OPERANDUM project, designed to address the major hydro-meteorological risks that negatively affect European rural and natural territories through the co-design, co-deployment, and assessment of Nature-based Solution, represents a valid case study to test a monitoring strategy from which set a broader, general and scalable monitoring framework. Applying a participative monitoring methodology, based on selected indicators list that combines quantitative and qualitative data developed within the activity of the project, the paper proposes an experimental in-depth analysis of the stakeholder engagement impact in the co-creation process of NBS. The main focus will be to spot and analyze which factors increase knowledge, social acceptance, and mainstreaming of NBS, promoting also a base-experience guideline to could be integrated with the stakeholder engagement strategy in current and future similar strongly collaborative approach-based environmental projects, such as OPERANDUM. Measurement will be carried out through survey submitted at a different timescale to the same sample (stakeholder: policy makers, business, researchers, interest groups). Changes will be recorded and analyzed through focus groups in order to highlight causal explanation and to assess the proposed list of indicators to steer the conduction of similar activities in other projects and/or contexts. The idea of the paper is to contribute to the construction of a more structured and shared corpus of indicators that can support the evaluation of the activities of involvement and participation of various levels of stakeholders in the co-production, planning, and implementation of NBS to address climate change challenges.

Keywords: co-creation and collaborative planning, monitoring, nature-based solution, participation & inclusion, stakeholder engagement

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Authors: Partha Saha, Uttam Kumar Banerjee

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Maternal and Child Healthcare (MCH) has always been regarded as one of the important issues globally. Reduction of maternal and child mortality rates and increase of healthcare service coverage were declared as one of the targets in Millennium Development Goals till 2015 and thereafter as an important component of the Sustainable Development Goals. Over the last decade, worldwide MCH indicators have improved but could not match the expected levels. Progress of both maternal and child mortality rates have been monitored by several researchers. Each of the studies has stated that only less than 26% of low-income and middle income countries (LMICs) were on track to achieve targets as prescribed by MDG4. Average worldwide annual rate of reduction of under-five mortality rate and maternal mortality rate were 2.2% and 1.9% as on 2011 respectively whereas rates should be minimum 4.4% and 5.5% annually to achieve targets. In spite of having proven healthcare interventions for both mothers and children, those could not be scaled up to the required volume due to fragmented health systems, especially in the developing and under-developed countries. In this research, a knowledge discovery based interactive Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed on web platform which would assist healthcare policy makers to develop evidence-based policies. To achieve desirable results in MCH, efficient resource planning is very much required. In maximum LMICs, resources are big constraint. Knowledge, generated through this system, would help healthcare managers to develop strategic resource planning for combatting with issues like huge inequity and less coverage in MCH. This system would help healthcare managers to accomplish following four tasks. Those are a) comprehending region wise conditions of variables related with MCH, b) identifying relationships within variables, c) segmenting regions based on variables status, and d) finding out segment wise key influential variables which have major impact on healthcare indicators. Whole system development process has been divided into three phases. Those were i) identifying contemporary issues related with MCH services and policy making; ii) development of the system; and iii) verification and validation of the system. More than 90 variables under three categories, such as a) educational, social, and economic parameters; b) MCH interventions; and c) health system building blocks have been included into this web-based DSS and five separate modules have been developed under the system. First module has been designed for analysing current healthcare scenario. Second module would help healthcare managers to understand correlations among variables. Third module would reveal frequently-occurring incidents along with different MCH interventions. Fourth module would segment regions based on previously mentioned three categories and in fifth module, segment-wise key influential interventions will be identified. India has been considered as case study area in this research. Data of 601 districts of India has been used for inspecting effectiveness of those developed modules. This system has been developed by importing different statistical and data mining techniques on Web platform. Policy makers would be able to generate different scenarios from the system before drawing any inference, aided by its interactive capability.

Keywords: maternal and child heathcare, decision support systems, data mining techniques, low and middle income countries

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Authors: Ayon Mukherjee

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Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs use the available responses to skew the treatment allocation in a clinical trial in towards treatment found at an interim stage to be best for a given patient's covariate profile. Extensive research has been done on various aspects of CARA designs with the patient responses assumed to follow a parametric model. However, ranges of application for such designs are limited in real-life clinical trials where the responses infrequently fit a certain parametric form. On the other hand, robust estimates for the covariate-adjusted treatment effects are obtained from the parametric assumption. To balance these two requirements, designs are developed which are free from distributional assumptions about the survival responses, relying only on the assumption of proportional hazards for the two treatment arms. The proposed designs are developed by deriving two types of optimum allocation designs, and also by using a distribution function to link the past allocation, covariate and response histories to the present allocation. The optimal designs are based on biased coin procedures, with a bias towards the better treatment arm. These are the doubly-adaptive biased coin design (DBCD) and the efficient randomized adaptive design (ERADE). The treatment allocation proportions for these designs converge to the expected target values, which are functions of the Cox regression coefficients that are estimated sequentially. These expected target values are derived based on constrained optimization problems and are updated as information accrues with sequential arrival of patients. The design based on the link function is derived using the distribution function of a probit model whose parameters are adjusted based on the covariate profile of the incoming patient. To apply such designs, the treatment allocation probabilities are sequentially modified based on the treatment allocation history, response history, previous patients’ covariates and also the covariates of the incoming patient. Given these information, an expression is obtained for the conditional probability of a patient allocation to a treatment arm. Based on simulation studies, it is found that the ERADE is preferable to the DBCD when the main aim is to minimize the variance of the observed allocation proportion and to maximize the power of the Wald test for a treatment difference. However, the former procedure being discrete tends to be slower in converging towards the expected target allocation proportion. The link function based design achieves the highest skewness of patient allocation to the best treatment arm and thus ethically is the best design. Other comparative merits of the proposed designs have been highlighted and their preferred areas of application are discussed. It is concluded that the proposed CARA designs can be considered as suitable alternatives to the traditional balanced randomization designs in survival trials in terms of the power of the Wald test, provided that response data are available during the recruitment phase of the trial to enable adaptations to the designs. Moreover, the proposed designs enable more patients to get treated with the better treatment during the trial thus making the designs more ethically attractive to the patients. An existing clinical trial has been redesigned using these methods.

Keywords: censored response, Cox regression, efficiency, ethics, optimal allocation, power, variability

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Authors: Chung Yan Natalia Yeung, Man Kit Indy Ho, Kin Yu Stan Chan, Ho Pui Kipper Lam, Man Wah Genie Tong, Tze Chung Jim Luk

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Excessive foot pronation is a well-known risk factor of knee and foot injuries such as patellofemoral pain, patellar and Achilles tendinopathy, and plantar fasciitis. Low-Dye taping (LDT) application is not uncommon for basketball players to control excessive foot pronation for pain control and injury prevention. The primary potential benefits of using LDT include providing additional supports to medial longitudinal arch and restricting the excessive midfoot and subtalar motion in weight-bearing activities such as running and landing. Meanwhile, restrictions provided by the rigid tape may also potentially limit functional joint movements and sports performance. Coaches and athletes need to weigh the potential benefits and harmful effects before making a decision if applying LDT technique is worthwhile or not. However, the influence of using LDT on basketball-related performance such as explosive and reactive strength is not well understood. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the change of drop jump (DJ) and countermovement jump (CMJ) performance before and after LDT application for collegiate male basketball players. In this within-subject crossover study, 12 healthy male basketball players (age: 21.7 ± 2.5 years) with at least 3-year regular basketball training experience were recruited. Navicular drop (ND) test was adopted as the screening and only those with excessive pronation (ND ≥ 10mm) were included. Participants with recent lower limb injury history were excluded. Recruited subjects were required to perform both ND, DJ (on a platform of 40cm height) and CMJ (without arms swing) tests in series during taped and non-taped conditions in the counterbalanced order. Reactive strength index (RSI) was calculated by using the flight time divided by the ground contact time measured. For DJ and CMJ tests, the best of three trials was used for analysis. The difference between taped and non-taped conditions for each test was further calculated through standardized effect ± 90% confidence intervals (CI) with clinical magnitude-based inference (MBI). Paired samples T-test showed significant decrease in ND (-4.68 ± 1.44mm; 95% CI: -3.77, -5.60; p < 0.05) while MBI demonstrated most likely beneficial and large effect (standardize effect: -1.59 ± 0.27) in LDT condition. For DJ test, significant increase in both flight time (25.25 ± 29.96ms; 95% CI: 6.22, 44.28; p < 0.05) and RSI (0.22 ± 0.22; 95% CI: 0.08, 0.36; p < 0.05) were observed. In taped condition, MBI showed very likely beneficial and moderate effect (standardized effect: 0.77 ± 0.49) in flight time, possibly beneficial and small effect (standardized effect: -0.26 ± 0.29) in ground contact time and very likely beneficial and moderate effect (standardized effect: 0.77 ± 0.42) in RSI. No significant difference in CMJ was observed (95% CI: -2.73, 2.08; p > 0.05). For basketball players with pes planus, applying LDT could substantially support the foot by elevating the navicular height and potentially provide acute beneficial effects in reactive strength performance. Meanwhile, no significant harmful effect on CMJ was observed. Basketball players may consider applying LDT before the game or training to enhance the reactive strength performance. However since the observed effects in this study could not generalize to other players without excessive foot pronation, further studies on players with normal foot arch or navicular height are recommended.

Keywords: flight time, pes planus, pronated foot, reactive strength index

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Authors: Alexander David Natanson

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This paper focuses on the effect of Sanctuary and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) policies on local economies. "Sanctuary cities" refers to municipal jurisdictions that limit their cooperation with the federal government's efforts to enforce immigration. Using county-level data from the American Community Survey and ICE data on economic indicators from 2006 to 2018, this study isolates the effects of local immigration policies on U.S. counties. The investigation is accomplished by simultaneously studying the policies' effects in counties where immigrants' families are persecuted via collaboration with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), in contrast to counties that provide protections. The analysis includes a difference-in-difference & two-way fixed effect model. Results are robust to nearest-neighbor matching, after the random assignment of treatment, after running estimations using different cutoffs for immigration policies, and with a regression discontinuity model comparing bordering counties with opposite policies. Results are also robust after restricting the data to a single-year policy adoption, using the Sun and Abraham estimator, and with event-study estimation to deal with the staggered treatment issue. In addition, the study reverses the estimation to understand what drives the decision to choose policies to detect the presence of reverse causality biases in the estimated policy impact on economic factors. The evidence demonstrates that providing protections to undocumented immigrants increases economic activity. The estimates show gains in per capita income ranging from 3.1 to 7.2, median wages between 1.7 to 2.6, and GDP between 2.4 to 4.1 percent. Regarding labor, sanctuary counties saw increases in total employment between 2.3 to 4 percent, and the unemployment rate declined from 12 to 17 percent. The data further shows that ICE policies have no statistically significant effects on income, median wages, or GDP but adverse effects on total employment, with declines from 1 to 2 percent, mostly in rural counties, and an increase in unemployment of around 7 percent in urban counties. In addition, results show a decline in the foreign-born population in ICE counties but no changes in sanctuary counties. The study also finds similar results for sanctuary counties when separating the data between urban, rural, educational attainment, gender, ethnic groups, economic quintiles, and the number of business establishments. The takeaway from this study is that institutional inclusion creates the dynamic nature of an economy, as inclusion allows for economic expansion due to the extension of fundamental freedoms to newcomers. Inclusive policies show positive effects on economic outcomes with no evident increase in population. To make sense of these results, the hypothesis and theoretical model propose that inclusive immigration policies play an essential role in conditioning the effect of immigration by decreasing uncertainties and constraints for immigrants' interaction in their communities, decreasing the cost from fear of deportation or the constant fear of criminalization and optimize their human capital.

Keywords: inclusive and exclusive institutions, post matching, fixed effect, time trend, regression discontinuity, difference-in-difference, randomization inference and sun, Abraham estimator

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Authors: Lachin Mikjtarnejad, Mohsen Farzaneh

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Various microbes, such as fungi and bacteria species, are naturally found in the fruit microbiota, and some of them act as a pathogen and result in fruit rot. Among non-pathogenic microbes, yeasts (single-celled microorganisms belonging to the fungi kingdom) can colonize fruit tissues and interact with them without causing any damage to them. Although yeasts are part of the plant microbiota, there is little information about their interactions with plants in comparison with bacteria and filamentous fungi. According to several existing studies, some yeasts can colonize different plant species and have the biological control ability to suppress some of the plant pathogens. It means those specific yeast-colonized plants are more resistant to some plant pathogens. The major objective of the present investigation is to isolate yeast strains from apple fruit and screen their ability to control Penicillium expansum, the causal agent of blue mold of fruits. In the present study, psychrotrophic and epiphytic yeasts were isolated from apple fruits that were stored at low temperatures (0–1°C). Totally, 42 yeast isolates were obtained and identified by molecular analysis based on genomic sequences of the D1/D2 and ITS1/ITS4 regions of their rDNA. All isolated yeasts were primarily screened by' in vitro dual culture assay against P. expansum by measuring the fungus' relative growth inhibition after 10 days of incubation. The results showed that the mycelial growth of P. expansum was reduced between 41–53% when challenged by promising yeast strains. The isolates with the strongest antagonistic activity belonged to Metschnikowia pulcherrima A13, Rhodotorula mucilaginosa A41, Leucosporidium Scottii A26, Aureobasidium pullulans A19, Pichia guilliermondii A32, Cryptococcus flavescents A25, and Pichia kluyveri A40. The results of seven superior isolates to inhibit blue mold decay on fruit showed that isolates A. pullulans A19, L. scottii A26, and Pi. guilliermondii A32 could significantly reduce the fruit rot and decay with 26 mm, 22 mm and 20 mm zone diameter, respectively, compared to the control sample with 43 mm. Our results show Pi. guilliermondii strain A13 was the most effective yeast isolates in inhibiting P. expansum on apple fruits. In addition, various biological control mechanisms of promising biological isolates against blue mold have been evaluated to date, including competition for nutrients and space, production of volatile metabolites, reduction of spore germination, production of siderophores and production of extracellular lytic enzymes such as chitinase and β-1,3-glucanase. However, the competition for nutrients and the ability to inhibit P. expansum spore growth have been introduced as the prevailing mechanisms among them. Accordingly, in our study, isolates A13, A41, A40, A25, A32, A19 and A26 inhibited the germination of P. expansum, whereas isolates A13 and A19 were the strongest inhibitors of P. expansum mycelia growth, causing 89.13% and 81.75 % reduction in the mycelial surface, respectively. All the promising isolates produced chitinase and β-1,3-glucanase after 3, 5 and 7 days of cultivation. Finally, based on our findings, we are proposing that, Pi. guilliermondiias as an effective biocontrol agent and alternative to chemical fungicides to control the blue mold of apple fruit.

Keywords: yeast, yeast enzymes, biocontrol, post harvest diseases

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Authors: Daniel Puciato, Piotr Oleśniewicz, Julita Markiewicz-Patkowska, Krzysztof Widawski, Michał Rozpara, Władysław Mynarski, Agnieszka Gawlik, Małgorzata Dębska, Soňa Jandová

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Physical activity as a part of people’s everyday life reduces the risk of many diseases, including those induced by lifestyle, e.g. obesity, type 2 diabetes, osteoporosis, coronary heart disease, degenerative arthritis, and certain types of cancer. That refers particularly to professionally active people, including the early senior group working on non-manual positions. The aim of the study is to evaluate the relationship between physical activity and the socio-economic status of non-manual workers from Wroclaw—one of the biggest cities in Poland, a model setting for such investigations in this part of Europe. The crucial problem in the research is to find out the percentage of respondents who meet the health-related recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO) concerning the volume, frequency, and intensity of physical activity, as well as to establish if the most important socio-economic factors, such as gender, age, education, marital status, per capita income, savings and debt, determine the compliance with the WHO physical activity recommendations. During the research, conducted in 2013, 1,170 people (611 women and 559 men) aged 21–60 years were examined. A diagnostic poll method was applied to collect the data. Physical activity was measured with the use of the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire with extended socio-demographic questions, i.e. concerning gender, age, education, marital status, income, savings or debts. To evaluate the relationship between physical activity and selected socio-economic factors, logistic regression was used (odds ratio statistics). Statistical inference was conducted on the adopted ex ante probability level of p<0.05. The majority of respondents met the volume of physical effort recommended for health benefits. It was particularly noticeable in the case of the examined men. The probability of compliance with the WHO physical activity recommendations was highest for workers aged 21–30 years with secondary or higher education who were single, received highest incomes and had savings. The results indicate the relations between physical activity and socio-economic status in the examined women and men. People with lower socio-economic status (e.g. manual workers) are physically active primarily at work, whereas those better educated and wealthier implement physical effort primarily in their leisure time. Among the investigated subjects, the youngest group of non-manual workers have the best chances to meet the WHO standards of physical activity. The study also confirms that secondary education has a positive effect on the public awareness on the role of physical activity in human life. In general, the analysis of the research indicates that there is a relationship between physical activity and some socio-economic factors of the respondents, such as gender, age, education, marital status, income per capita, and the possession of savings. Although the obtained results cannot be applied for the general population, they show some important trends that will be verified in subsequent studies conducted by the authors of the paper.

Keywords: IPAQ, nonmanual workers, physical activity, socioeconomic factors, WHO

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Authors: A. Chávez, A. Rodríguez, F. Pinzón

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Society is concerned about measures of environmental, economic and social impacts generated in the solid waste disposal. These places of confinement, also known as landfills, are locations where problems of pollution and damage to human health are reduced. They are technically designed and operated, using engineering principles, storing the residue in a small area, compact it to reduce volume and covering them with soil layers. Problems preventing liquid (leachate) and gases produced by the decomposition of organic matter. Despite planning and site selection for disposal, monitoring and control of selected processes, remains the dilemma of the leachate as extreme concentration of pollutants, devastating soil, flora and fauna; aggressive processes requiring priority attention. A biological technology is the activated sludge system, used for tributaries with high pollutant loads. Since transforms biodegradable dissolved and particulate matter into CO2, H2O and sludge; transform suspended and no Settleable solids; change nutrients as nitrogen and phosphorous; and degrades heavy metals. The microorganisms that remove organic matter in the processes are in generally facultative heterotrophic bacteria, forming heterogeneous populations. Is possible to find unicellular fungi, algae, protozoa and rotifers, that process the organic carbon source and oxygen, as well as the nitrogen and phosphorus because are vital for cell synthesis. The mixture of the substrate, in this case sludge leachate, molasses and wastewater is maintained ventilated by mechanical aeration diffusers. Considering as the biological processes work to remove dissolved material (< 45 microns), generating biomass, easily obtained by decantation processes. The design consists of an artificial support and aeration pumps, favoring develop microorganisms (denitrifying) using oxygen (O) with nitrate, resulting in nitrogen (N) in the gas phase. Thus, avoiding negative effects of the presence of ammonia or phosphorus. Overall the activated sludge system includes about 8 hours of hydraulic retention time, which does not prevent the demand for nitrification, which occurs on average in a value of MLSS 3,000 mg/L. The extended aeration works with times greater than 24 hours detention; with ratio of organic load/biomass inventory under 0.1; and average stay time (sludge age) more than 8 days. This project developed a pilot system with sludge leachate from Doña Juana landfill - RSDJ –, located in Bogota, Colombia, where they will be subjected to a process of activated sludge and extended aeration through a sequential Bach reactor - SBR, to be dump in hydric sources, avoiding ecological collapse. The system worked with a dwell time of 8 days, 30 L capacity, mainly by removing values of BOD and COD above 90%, with initial data of 1720 mg/L and 6500 mg/L respectively. Motivating the deliberate nitrification is expected to be possible commercial use diffused aeration systems for sludge leachate from landfills.

Keywords: sludge, landfill, leachate, SBR

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Authors: Alexis D'Agostino, Celeste Sununtunasuk, Jack Fiedler

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Background: Iron-folic acid (IFA) supplementation during antenatal care (ANC) has existed in many countries for decades. Despite this, low national coverage persists and women do not often consume appropriate amounts during pregnancy. USAID’s SPRING Project investigated pregnant women’s access to, and consumption of, IFA tablets through ANC. Cross-country analysis provided a global picture of the state of IFA-supplementation, while country-specific results noted key contextual issues, including geography, wealth, and ANC attendance. The analysis can help countries prioritize strategies for systematic performance improvements within one of the most common micronutrient supplementation programs aimed at reducing maternal anemia. Methodology: Using falter point analysis on Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected from 162,958 women across 22 countries, SPRING identified four sequential falter points (ANC attendance, IFA receipt or purchase, IFA consumption, and number of tablets taken) where pregnant women fell out of the IFA distribution structure. SPRING analyzed data on IFA intake from DHS surveys with women of reproductive age. SPRING disaggregated these data by ANC participation during the most recent pregnancy, residency, and women’s socio-economic status. Results: Average sufficient IFA tablet use across all countries was only eight percent. Even in the best performing countries, only about one-third of pregnant women consumed 180 or more IFA tablets during their most recent pregnancy. ANC attendance was an important falter point for a quarter of women across all countries (with highest falter rates in Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Niger). Further analysis reveals patterns, with some countries having high ANC coverage but low IFA provision during ANC (DRC and Haiti), others having high ANC coverage and IFA provision but few women taking any tablets (Nigeria and Liberia), and countries that perform well in ANC, supplies, and initial consumption but where very few women consume the recommended 180 tablets (Malawi and Cambodia). Country-level analysis identifies further patterns of supplementation. In Indonesia, for example, only 62% of women in the poorest quintile took even one IFA tablet, while 86% of the wealthiest women did. This association between socioeconomic status and IFA intake held across nearly all countries where these data are available and was also visible in rural/urban comparisons. Analysis of ANC attendance data also suggests that higher numbers of ANC visits are associated with higher tablet intake. Conclusions: While it is difficult to disentangle which specific aspects of supply or demand cause the low rates of consumption, this tool allows policy-makers to identify major bottlenecks to scaling-up IFA supplementation during ANC. In turn, each falter point provides possible explanations of program performance and helps strategically identify areas for improved IFA supplementation. For example, improving the delivery of IFA supplementation in Ethiopia relies on increasing access to ANC, but also on identifying and addressing program gaps in IFA supply management and health workers’ practices in order to provide quality ANC services. While every country requires a customized approach to improving IFA supplementation, the multi-country analysis conducted by SPRING is a helpful first step in identifying country bottlenecks and prioritizing interventions.

Keywords: iron and folic acid, supplementation, antenatal care, micronutrient

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Authors: Tatsiana Ihnatovich, Darya Nizheharodava, Mikalai Halabarodzka, Tatsiana Savitskaya, Marina Zafranskaya

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Liver fibrosis is a complex of histological changes resulting from chronic liver disease accompanied by an excessive production and deposition of extracellular matrix components in the hepatic parenchyma. Liver fibrosis is a serious medical and social problem. Hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) make a significant contribution to the extracellular matrix deposition due to liver injury. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have a pronounced anti-inflammatory, regenerative and immunomodulatory effect; they are able to differentiate into hepatocytes and induce apoptosis of activated HSCs that opens the prospect of their use for preventing the excessive fibro-formation and the development of liver cirrhosis. The aim of the study is to evaluate the effect of MSCs therapy on the expression of fibrogenesis markers genes in liver tissue and HSCs cultures of rats with experimental liver cirrhosis (ELC). Materials and methods: ELC was induced by the common bile duct ligation (CBDL) in female Wistar rats (n = 19) with an average body weight of 250 (220 ÷ 270) g. Animals from the control group (n = 10) were sham-operated. On the 56th day after the CBDL, the rats of the experimental (n = 12) and the control (n = 5) groups received intraportal MSCs in concentration of 1×106 cells/animal (previously obtained from rat’s bone marrow) or saline, respectively. The animals were taken out of the experiment on the 21st day. HSCs were isolated by sequential liver perfusion in situ with following disaggregation, enzymatic treatment and centrifugation of cell suspension on a two-stage density gradient. The expression of collagen type I (Col1a1) and type III (Col3a1), matrix metalloproteinase type 2 (MMP2) and type 9 (MMP9), tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinases type 1 (TIMP1), transforming growth factor β type 1 (TGFβ1) and type 3 (TGFβ3) was determined by real-time polymerase chain reaction. Statistical analysis was performed using Statistica 10.0. Results: In ELC rats compared to sham-operated animals, a significant increase of all studied markers expression was observed. The administration of MSCs led to a significant decrease of all detectable markers in the experimental group compared to rats without cell therapy. In ELC rats, an increased MMP9/TIMP1 ratio after cell therapy was also detected. The infusion of MSCs in the sham-operated animals did not lead to any changes. In the HSCs from ELC animals, the expression of Col1a1 and Col3a1 exceeded the similar parameters of the control group (p <0.05) and statistically decreased after the MSCs administration. The correlation between Col3a1 (Rs = 0.51, p <0.05), TGFβ1 (Rs = 0.6, p <0.01), and TGFβ3 (Rs = 0.75, p <0.001) expression in HSCs cultures and liver tissue has been found. Conclusion: Intraportal administration of MSCs to rats with ELC leads to a decreased Col1a1 and Col3a1, MMP2 and MMP9, TIMP1, TGFβ1 and TGFβ3 expression. The correlation between the expression of Col3a1, TGFβ1 and TGFβ3 in liver tissue and in HSCs cultures indicates the involvement of activated HSCs in the fibrogenesis that allows considering HSCs to be the main cell therapy target in ELC.

Keywords: cell therapy, experimental liver cirrhosis, hepatic stellate cells, mesenchymal stem cells

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Authors: Luminiţa Duţică, Gheorghe Duţică

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One of the most powerful language innovation in the twentieth century music was the heterophony–hypostasis of the vertical syntax entered into the sphere of interest of many composers, such as George Enescu, Pierre Boulez, Mauricio Kagel, György Ligeti and others. The heterophonic syntax has a history of its growth, which means a succession of different concepts and writing techniques. The trajectory of settling this phenomenon does not necessarily take into account the chronology: there are highly complex primary stages and advanced stages of returning to the simple forms of writing. In folklore, the plurimelodic simultaneities are free or random and originate from the (unintentional) differences/‘deviations’ from the state of unison, through a variety of ornaments, melismas, imitations, elongations and abbreviations, all in a flexible rhythmic and non-periodic/immeasurable framework, proper to the parlando-rubato rhythmics. Within the general framework of the multivocal organization, the heterophonic syntax in elaborate (academic) version has imposed itself relatively late compared with polyphony and homophony. Of course, the explanation is simple, if we consider the causal relationship between the sound vocabulary elements – in this case, the modalism – and the typologies of vertical organization appropriate for it. Therefore, adding up the ‘classic’ pathway of the writing typologies (monody – polyphony – homophony), heterophony - applied equally to the structures of modal, serial or synthesis vocabulary – reclaims necessarily an own macrotemporal form, in the sense of the analogies enshrined by the evolution of the musical styles and languages: polyphony→fugue, homophony→sonata. Concerned about the prospect of edifying a new musical ontology, the composer Ştefan Niculescu experienced – along with the mathematical organization of heterophony according to his own original methods – the possibility of extrapolation of this phenomenon in macrostructural plan, reaching this way to the unique form of ‘synchrony’. Founded on coincidentia oppositorum principle (involving the ‘one-multiple’ binom), the sound architecture imagined by Ştefan Niculescu consists in one (temporal) model / algorithm of articulation of two sound states: 1. monovocality state (principle of identity) and 2. multivocality state (principle of difference). In this context, the heterophony becomes an (auto)generative mechanism, with macrotemporal amplitude, strategy that will be grown by the composer, practically throughout his creation (see the works: Ison I, Ison II, Unisonos I, Unisonos II, Duplum, Triplum, Psalmus, Héterophonies pour Montreux (Homages to Enescu and Bartók etc.). For the present demonstration, we selected one of the most edifying works of Ştefan Niculescu – Simphony II, Opus dacicum – where the form of (heterophony-)synchrony acquires monumental-symphonic features, representing an emblematic case for the complexity level achieved by this type of vertical syntax in the twentieth century music.

Keywords: heterophony, modalism, serialism, synchrony, syntax

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Authors: Marie Bountrogianni, Leonora Zefi, Krystle Phirangee, Naza Djafarova

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Faculty development is critical for any institution as it impacts students’ learning experiences and faculty performance with regards to course delivery. With that in mind, The Chang School at Ryerson University embarked on an initiative to develop a comprehensive, relevant faculty development program for online faculty and instructors. Teaching Adult Learners Online (TALO) is a professional development program designed to build capacity among online teaching faculty to enhance communication/facilitation skills for online instruction and establish a Community of Practice to allow for opportunities for online faculty to network and exchange ideas and experiences. TALO is comprised of four online modules and each module provides three hours of learning materials. The topics focus on online teaching and learning experience, principles and practices, opportunities and challenges in online assessments as well as course design and development. TALO offers a unique experience for online instructors who are placed in the role of a student and an instructor through interactivities involving discussions, hands-on assignments, peer mentoring while experimenting with technological tools available for their online teaching. Through exchanges and informal peer mentoring, a small interdisciplinary community of practice has started to take shape. Successful participants have to meet four requirements for completion: i) participate actively in online discussions and activities, ii) develop a communication plan for the course they are teaching, iii) design one learning activity/or media component, iv) design one online learning module. This study adopted a mixed methods exploratory sequential design. For the qualitative phase of this study, a thorough literature review was conducted on what constitutes effective faculty development programs. Based on that review, the design team identified desired competencies for online teaching/facilitation and course design. Once the competencies were identified, a focus group interview with The Chang School teaching community was conducted as a needs assessment and to validate the competencies. In the quantitative phase, questionnaires were distributed to instructors and faculty after the program was launched to continue ongoing evaluation and revisions, in hopes of further improving the program to meet the teaching community’s needs. Four faculty members participated in a one-hour focus group interview. Major findings from the focus group interview revealed that for the training program, faculty wanted i) to better engage students online, ii) to enhance their online teaching with specific strategies, iii) to explore different ways to assess students online. 91 faculty members completed the questionnaire in which findings indicated that: i) the majority of faculty stated that they gained the necessary skills to demonstrate instructor presence through communication and use of technological tools provided, ii) increased faculty confidence with course management strategies, iii) learning from peers is most effective – the Community of Practice is strengthened and valued even more as program alumni become facilitators. Although this professional development program is not mandatory for online instructors, since its launch in Fall 2014, over 152 online instructors have successfully completed the program. A Community of Practice emerged as a result of the program and participants continue to exchange thoughts and ideas about online teaching and learning.

Keywords: community of practice, customized, faculty development, inclusive design

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Authors: Amir Shouri, Fereshteh Tabe

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Master planning and urban infrastructure’s thoughtful and sequential design strategies will play the major role in reducing the damages of natural disasters, war and or social/population related conflicts for cities. Defensive strategies have been revised during the history of mankind after having damages from natural depressions, war experiences and terrorist attacks on cities. Lessons learnt from Earthquakes, from 2 world war casualties in 20th century and terrorist activities of all times. Particularly, after Hurricane Sandy of New York in 2012 and September 11th attack on New York’s World Trade Centre (WTC) in 21st century, there have been series of serious collaborations between law making authorities, urban planners and architects and defence related organizations to firstly, getting prepared and/or prevent such activities and secondly, reduce the human loss and economic damages to minimum. This study will work on developing a model of planning for New York City, where its citizens will get minimum impacts in threat-full time with minimum economic damages to the city after the stress is passed. The main discussion in this proposal will focus on pre-hazard, hazard-time and post-hazard transformative policies and strategies that will reduce the “Life casualties” and will ease “Economic Recovery” in post-hazard conditions. This proposal is going to scrutinize that one of the key solutions in this path might be focusing on all overlaying possibilities on architectural platforms of three fundamental infrastructures, the transportation, the power related sources and defensive abilities on a dynamic-transformative framework that will provide maximum safety, high level of flexibility and fastest action-reaction opportunities in stressful periods of time. “Planning Fore Stress” is going to be done in an analytical, qualitative and quantitative work frame, where it will study cases from all over the world. Technology, Organic Design, Materiality, Urban forms, city politics and sustainability will be discussed in deferent cases in international scale. From the modern strategies of Copenhagen for living friendly with nature to traditional approaches of Indonesian old urban planning patterns, the “Iron Dome” of Israel to “Tunnels” in Gaza, from “Ultra-high-performance quartz-infused concrete” of Iran to peaceful and nature-friendly strategies of Switzerland, from “Urban Geopolitics” in cities, war and terrorism to “Design of Sustainable Cities” in the world, will all be studied with references and detailed look to analysis of each case in order to propose the most resourceful, practical and realistic solutions to questions on “New City Divisions”, “New City Planning and social activities” and “New Strategic Architecture for Safe Cities”. This study is a developed version of a proposal that was announced as winner at MoMA in 2013 in call for ideas for Rockaway after Sandy Hurricane took place.

Keywords: urban scale, city safety, natural disaster, war and terrorism, city divisions, architecture for safe cities

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Authors: Javier E. García-Gallo, Nelson J. Fonseca-Ruiz, John F. Duitama-Munoz

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Sepsis is a syndrome that occurs with physiological and biochemical abnormalities induced by severe infection and carries a high mortality and morbidity, therefore the severity of its condition must be interpreted quickly. After patient admission in an intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to synthesize the large volume of information that is collected from patients in a value that represents the severity of their condition. Traditional severity of illness scores seeks to be applicable to all patient populations, and usually assess in-hospital mortality. However, the use of machine learning techniques and the data of a population that shares a common characteristic could lead to the development of customized mortality prediction scores with better performance. This study presents the development of a score for the one-year mortality prediction of the patients that are admitted to an ICU with a sepsis diagnosis. 5650 ICU admissions extracted from the MIMICIII database were evaluated, divided into two groups: 70% to develop the score and 30% to validate it. Comorbidities, demographics and clinical information of the first 24 hours after the ICU admission were used to develop a mortality prediction score. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SGB (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) variable importance methodologies were used to select the set of variables that make up the developed score; each of this variables was dichotomized and a cut-off point that divides the population into two groups with different mean mortalities was found; if the patient is in the group that presents a higher mortality a one is assigned to the particular variable, otherwise a zero is assigned. These binary variables are used in a logistic regression (LR) model, and its coefficients were rounded to the nearest integer. The resulting integers are the point values that make up the score when multiplied with each binary variables and summed. The one-year mortality probability was estimated using the score as the only variable in a LR model. Predictive power of the score, was evaluated using the 1695 admissions of the validation subset obtaining an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7528, which outperforms the results obtained with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII) scores on the same validation subset. Observed and predicted mortality rates within estimated probabilities deciles were compared graphically and found to be similar, indicating that the risk estimate obtained with the score is close to the observed mortality, it is also observed that the number of events (deaths) is indeed increasing as the outcome go from the decile with the lowest probabilities to the decile with the highest probabilities. Sepsis is a syndrome that carries a high mortality, 43.3% for the patients included in this study; therefore, tools that help clinicians to quickly and accurately predict a worse prognosis are needed. This work demonstrates the importance of customization of mortality prediction scores since the developed score provides better performance than traditional scoring systems.

Keywords: intensive care, logistic regression model, mortality prediction, sepsis, severity of illness, stochastic gradient boosting

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