Search results for: climate mitigation

Authors: Aayush Anant, Roshni Thendiyath

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Aridity impacts on agriculture, as well as ecological, human health, and economic activities. In the present study, the effect of climate change on aridity index has been analysed in South Bihar for the past 30 year period by five types of aridity indices as Lang AI, De-Martonne AI, Erinc AI, Pinna combinative AI and UNEP AI. For the study of aridity index, the analysis of rainfall and temperature is significant. Rainfall was analysed for 30 year period from data of 23 gridded stations in for the period 1991-2020. The results show that rainfall pattern was decreasing with respect to previous decades for majority of stations. Trend of maximum, minimum and mean annual temperature has been observed, which shows increasing trend. Structural breakpoint was observed for mean annual temperature data series in year 2004. In period 1991-2004 mean annual temperature was 25.25 ºC, and in period 2005-2020, mean annual temperature was 25.7 ºC. Average aridity index has been calculated by all the above mentioned methods for whole 30 period. Lang AI shows that eastern part of study area is Humid type, and rest all is semi arid. De-Martonne AI also reveals that east part is humid, but rest of the study area is moist sub humid. According to Erinc AI and Pinna, combinative AI shows that whole south Bihar is dry sub humid and semi dry, respectively. UNEP AI shows most of the part as sub humid, and very small part in west is semi arid, while small part of east is humid. Temporal distribution of all the aridity indices shows a decreasing trend. This indicates a decrease in the humid areas in south Bihar for the selected time period.

Keywords: drought, aridity index, climate change, rainfall, temperature

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Authors: Kayne Uriel K. Rodrigo, Jerriane Hillary Heart S. Marcial, Samuel C. Brillo

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Rice leaf diseases significantly impact yield production in rice-dependent countries, affecting their agricultural sectors. As part of precision agriculture, early and accurate detection of these diseases is crucial for effective mitigation practices and minimizing crop losses. Hence, this study proposes an enhancement to the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a widely-used method for Rice Leaf Disease Image Classification, by incorporating MobileViTV2—a recently advanced architecture that combines CNN and Vision Transformer models while maintaining fewer parameters, making it suitable for broader deployment on edge devices. Our methodology utilizes a publicly available rice disease image dataset from Kaggle, which was validated by a university structural biologist following the guidelines provided by the Philippine Rice Institute (PhilRice). Modifications to the dataset include renaming certain disease categories and augmenting the rice leaf image data through rotation, scaling, and flipping. The enhanced dataset was then used to train the MobileViTV2 model using the Timm library. The results of our approach are as follows: the model achieved notable performance, with 98% accuracy in both training and validation, 6% training and validation loss, and a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve ranging from 95% to 100% for each label. Additionally, the F1 score was 97%. These metrics demonstrate a significant improvement compared to a conventional CNN-based approach, which, in a previous 2022 study, achieved only 78% accuracy after using 5 convolutional layers and 2 dense layers. Thus, it can be concluded that MobileViTV2, with its fewer parameters, outperforms traditional CNN models, particularly when applied to Rice Leaf Disease Image Identification. For future work, we recommend extending this model to include datasets validated by international rice experts and broadening the scope to accommodate biotic factors such as rice pest classification, as well as abiotic stressors such as climate, soil quality, and geographic information, which could improve the accuracy of disease prediction.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, MobileViTV2, rice leaf disease, precision agriculture, image classification, vision transformer

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Authors: Joseph M. Njoroge

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The need for urgent adaptation have triggered tourism stakeholders and research community to develop generic adaptation framework(s) for national, regional and or local tourism desti-nations. Such frameworks have been proposed to guide the tourism industry in the adaptation process with an aim of reducing tourism industry’s vulnerability and to enhance their ability to cope to climate associated externalities. However research show that current approaches are far from sustainability since the adaptation options sought are usually closely associated with development needs-‘business as usual’-where the implication of adaptation to social justice and environmental integrity are often neglected. Based on this view there is a need to look at adaptation beyond addressing vulnerability and resilience to include the need for adaptation to enhance social justice and environmental integrity. This paper reviews the existing adaptation frameworks/models and evaluates their suitability in enhancing sustainable adaptation for regional tourist destinations. It is noted that existing frameworks contradicts the basic ‘principles of sustainable adaptation’. Further attempts are made to propose a Sustainable Regional Tourism Adaptation Framework (SRTAF) to assist regional tourism stakeholders in the achieving sustainable adaptation.

Keywords: sustainable adaptation, sustainability principles, sustainability portfolio, Regional Tourism

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Authors: J. K. Pis-An

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Objective: The purpose of the study was to examine the vulnerability of farmers to the effects of climate change, specifically the El Niño phenomenon was felt in the Philippines in 2009-2010. Methods: KAP Survey determines behavioral response to vulnerability to the effects of El Niño. Body Mass Index: Dietary Assessment using 24-hour food recall. Results: 75% of the respondents claimed that crop significantly decreased during drought. Indications that households of farmers are large where 51.6% are composed of 6-10 family members with 68% annual incomes below Php 100,00. Anthropometric assessment showed that the prevalence of Chronic Energy Deficiency Grade 1 among females 17% and 28.57% for low normal. While male body mass index result for chronic energy deficiency grade 1 10%, low normal 18.33% and and obese grade 1, 31.67%. Dietary assessment of macronutrient intake of carbohydrates, protein, and fat 31.6 % among respondents are below recommended amounts. Micronutrient deficiency of calcium, iron, vit. A, thiamine, riboflavin, niacin, and Vit. C. Conclusion: Majority of the rural populations are engaged into farming livelihood that makes up the backbone of their economic growth. Placing the current nutritional status of the farmers in the context of food security, there are reasons to believe that the status will go for worse if the extreme climatic conditions will once again prevail in the region. Farmers rely primarily on home grown crops for their food supply, a reduction in farm production during drought is expected to adversely affect dietary intake. The local government therefore institute programs to increase food resiliency and to prioritize health of the population as the moving force for productivity and development.

Keywords: world health organization, united nation framework convention on climate change, anthropometric, macronutrient, micronutrient

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Authors: Dibakar Sahoo, Sridevi Gummadi

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The focus of the study is to empirically analyse the climatic impacts on foodgrain yield and its variability across seasons and altitudes in Odisha, one of the most vulnerable states in India. The study uses Just-Pope Stochastic Production function by using two-step Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS): mean equation estimation and variance equation estimation. The study uses the panel data on foodgrain yield, rainfall and temperature for 13 districts during the period 1984-2013. The study considers four seasons: winter (December-February), summer (March-May), Rainy (June-September) and autumn (October-November). The districts under consideration have been categorized under three altitude regions such as low (< 70 masl), middle (153-305 masl) and high (>305 masl) altitudes. The results show that an increase in the standard deviations of monthly rainfall during rainy and autumn seasons have an adversely significant impact on the mean yield of foodgrains in Odisha. The summer temperature has beneficial effects by significantly increasing mean yield as the summer season is associated with harvesting stage of Rabi crops. The changing pattern of temperature has increasing effect on the yield variability of foodgrains during the summer season, whereas it has a decreasing effect on yield variability of foodgrains during the Rainy season. Moreover, the positive expected signs of trend variable in both mean and variance equation suggests that foodgrain yield and its variability increases with time. On the other hand, a change in mean levels of rainfall and temperature during different seasons has heterogeneous impacts either harmful or beneficial depending on the altitudes. These findings imply that adaptation strategies should be tailor-made to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change and variability for sustainable development across seasons and altitudes in Odisha agriculture.

Keywords: altitude, adaptation strategies, climate change, foodgrain

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Authors: Gabriel A. Juma, Adiel M. Magana, Githaiga N. Michael, James G. Kairo

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Seagrass meadows are important carbon sinks, thus understanding this role and their conservation provides opportunities for their applications in climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study aimed at understanding seagrass contribution to ecosystem carbon at Gazi Bay; by comparing carbon stocks in seagrass beds of two mangroves fringed creeks of the bay. Specifically, the objectives included assessing the distribution and abundance of seagrass in the fringed creeks, and estimating above and below-ground biomass. Results obtained would be added to the mangrove and open bay carbon in estimating total ecosystem carbon of Gazi bay. The stratified random sampling strategy was applied in this study. Transects were laid perpendicular to the waterline at intervals of 50 meters from the upper region near the mangroves to the deeper end of the creek across seagrass meadows. Along these transects, 0.25m2 square quadrats were laid at 10 m to assess distribution and composition of seagrasses in the creeks. A total of 80 plots were sampled. Above-ground biomass was sampled by harvesting all the seagrass materials within the quadrat while four sediment cores were obtained from each quarter of the quadrat and then sorted into necromass, rhizomes and roots to determine below ground biomass. Samples were cleaned and dried in the oven for 72 hours at 60˚C in the laboratory. Total biomass was determined by multiplying biomass with carbon conversion factor of 0.34. In all the statistical tests, a significant level was set at α = 0.05. Eight species of seagrass were encountered in Western creek (WC) while seven in the Eastern creek (EC). Based on importance value, the dominant species in WC were Cymodocea rotundata and Halodule uninervis while Thalassodendron ciliatum and Enhalus acoroides dominated the eastern creek. The cover of seagrass in EC was 67.97% compared to 56.45% in WC. There was a significance difference in abundance of seagrass species between the two creeks (t = 1.97, D.F = 35, p < 0.05). Similarly, there was significance differences between total seagrass biomass (t= -8.44, D.F. = 53, p < 0.05) and species composition (F(7,79) = 14.6, p < 0.05) in the two creeks. Mean seagrass in the creeks was 7.25 ± 4.2 Mg C ha-1, (range: 4.1 - 12.9 Mg C ha-1). The findings of the current study reveal variations in biomass stocks of the two creeks of Gazi bay that have varying biophysical features. It is established that habitat heterogeneity between the creeks contributes to the variation in seagrass abundance and biomass stocking. This enhances understanding of these ecosystems hence the establishment of carbon offset project in seagrass for livelihood improvement and increased conservation.

Keywords: seagrass, above-ground, below-ground, creeks, Gazi bay

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Authors: Omar Alelweet

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Carbon emissions are quantified in terms of carbon dioxide equivalents, generated through a specific activity or accumulated throughout the life stages of a product or service. Given the growing concern about climate change and the role of carbon dioxide emissions in global warming, this initiative aims to create awareness and understanding of the impact of human activities and identify potential areas for improvement regarding the management of the carbon footprint on campus. Given that trees play a vital role in reducing carbon emissions by absorbing CO₂ during the photosynthesis process, this paper evaluated the contribution of each tree to reducing those emissions. Collecting data over an extended period of time is essential to monitoring carbon dioxide levels. This will help capture changes at different times and identify any patterns or trends in the data. By linking the data to specific activities, events, or environmental factors, it is possible to identify sources of emissions and areas where carbon dioxide levels are rising. Analyzing the collected data can provide valuable insights into ways to reduce emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change.

Keywords: sustainability, green building, environmental impact, CO₂

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Authors: E. A. Krasikov

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As a main barrier against radioactivity outlet reactor pressure vessel (RPV) is a key component in terms of NPP safety. Therefore, present-day demands in RPV reliability enhance have to be met by all possible actions for RPV in-service embrittlement mitigation. Annealing treatment is known to be the effective measure to restore the RPV metal properties deteriorated by neutron irradiation. There are two approaches to annealing. The first one is so-called ‘dry’ high temperature (~475°C) annealing. It allows obtaining practically complete recovery, but requires the removal of the reactor core and internals. External heat source (furnace) is required to carry out RPV heat treatment. The alternative approach is to anneal RPV at a maximum coolant temperature which can be obtained using the reactor core or primary circuit pumps while operating within the RPV design limits. This low temperature «wet» annealing, although it cannot be expected to produce complete recovery, is more attractive from the practical point of view especially in cases when the removal of the internals is impossible. The first RPV «wet» annealing was done using nuclear heat (US Army SM-1A reactor). The second one was done by means of primary pumps heat (Belgian BR-3 reactor). As a rule, there is no recovery effect up to annealing and irradiation temperature difference of 70°C. It is known, however, that along with radiation embrittlement neutron irradiation may mitigate the radiation damage in metals. Therefore, we have tried to test the possibility to use the effect of radiation-induced ductilization in ‘wet’ annealing technology by means of nuclear heat utilization as heat and neutron irradiation sources at once. In support of the above-mentioned conception the 3-year duration reactor experiment on 15Cr3NiMoV type steel with preliminary irradiation at operating PWR at 270°C and following extra irradiation (87 h at 330°C) at IR-8 test reactor was fulfilled. In fact, embrittlement was partly suppressed up to value equivalent to 1,5 fold neutron fluence decrease. The degree of recovery in case of radiation enhanced annealing is equal to 27% whereas furnace annealing results in zero effect under existing conditions. Mechanism of the radiation-induced damage mitigation is proposed. It is hoped that «wet » annealing technology will help provide a better management of the RPV degradation as a factor affecting the lifetime of nuclear power plants which, together with associated management methods, will help facilitate safe and economic long-term operation of PWRs.

Keywords: controlling, embrittlement, radiation, steel, wet annealing

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Authors: Zerihun Yohannes Amare Id, Bernhard Freyer, Ky Serge Stephane, Ouéda Adama, Blessing Mudombi, Jean Nzuma, Mekonen Getachew Abebe, Adane Tesfaye, Birtukan Atinkut Asmare, Tesfahun Asmamaw Kassie

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The study was conducted in Ethiopia (Zege Catchment) (ZC), Zimbabwe (Upper Save Catchment) (USC), and Burkina Faso (Nakambe Catchment) (NC). The study utilized a quantitative approach with 180 participants and complemented it with qualitative methods, including 33 key informant interviews and 6 focus group discussions. Households in ZC (58%), NC (55%), and US (40%) do not cover their household food consumption from crop production. The households rely heavily on perennial cash crops rather than annual crop production. Exposure indicators in ZC (0.758), USC (0.774), and NC (0.944), and sensitivity indicators in ZC (0.849) and NC (0.937) show statistically significant and high correlation with vulnerability. In the USC, adaptive capacity (0.746) and exposure (0.774) are also statistically significant and highly correlated with vulnerability. Vulnerability levels of the NC are very high (0.75) (0.85 female and 0.65 male participants) compared to the USC (0.66) (0.69 female and 0.61 male participants) and ZC (0.47) (0.34 female and 0.58 male participants). Female-headed households had statistically significantly lower vulnerability index compared to males in ZC, while male-headed households had statistically significantly lower vulnerability index compared to females in USC and NC. The reason is land certification in ZC (80%) is higher than in the US (10%) and NC (8%). Agroforestry practices variables across the study catchments had statistically significant contributions to households' adaptive capacity. We conclude that agroforestry practices do have substantial benefits in increasing women's adaptive capacity and reducing their vulnerability to climate change and food insecurity.

Keywords: climate change vulnerability, agroforestry, gender, food security, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Balpreet Singh Madan

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The Middle Eastern countries have preserved their heritage, tradition, and culture in their buildings by incorporating vernacular features of Arab-Islamic Architecture. The harsh sun and arid climate in the Gulf region make their buildings and infrastructure extremely hot and challenging to live in. One such iconic feature of Arab architecture is the Mashrabiya, which has been refined and updated for both functional and aesthetic purposes. This feature helps reduce the impact of solar radiation in buildings and lowers the energy requirements for creating livable conditions. The incorporation of Mashrabiya in modern buildings in the region symbolizes the amalgamation of tradition with innovation and modern technology. These buildings depict Mashrabiya with refinements for its better functional performance and aesthetic appeal to make superior built forms. This paper emphasizes the study of Mashrabiya as a vernacular feature with its adaptability for Energy Conservation and Sustainability, as seen in some of the recent iconic buildings of the Middle East, through a literature review and case studies of renowned buildings.

Keywords: energy efficiency, climate responsive, sustainability, innovation, heritage, vernacular

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Authors: D. Naranchimeg, G. Ulziisaikhan

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Student dropout problem has not been recently investigated within the Mongolian higher education. A student dropping out is a personal decision, but it may cause unemployment and other social problems including low quality of life because students who are not completed a degree cannot find better-paid jobs. The research aims to determine percentage of at-risk students, and understand reasons for dropouts and to find a way to predict. The study based on the students of the Mongolian National University of Education including its Arkhangai branch school, National University of Mongolia, Mongolian University of Life Sciences, Mongolian University of Science and Technology, Mongolian National University of Medical Science, Ikh Zasag International University, and Dornod University. We conducted the paper survey by method of random sampling and have surveyed about 100 students per university. The margin of error - 4 %, confidence level -90%, and sample size was 846, but we excluded 56 students from this study. Causes for exclusion were missing data on the questionnaire. The survey has totally 17 questions, 4 of which was demographic questions. The survey shows that 1.4% of the students always thought to dropout whereas 61.8% of them thought sometimes. Also, results of the research suggest that students’ dropouts from university do not have relationships with their sex, marital and social status, and peer and faculty climate, whereas it slightly depends on their chosen specialization. Finally, the paper presents the reasons for dropping out provided by the students. The main two reasons for dropouts are personal reasons related with choosing wrong study program, not liking the course they had chosen (50.38%), and financial difficulties (42.66%). These findings reveal the importance of early prevention of dropout where possible, combined with increased attention to high school students in choosing right for them study program, and targeted financial support for those who are at risk.

Keywords: at risk students, dropout, faculty climate, Mongolian universities, peer climate

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Authors: Katarzyna Pawęska, Aleksandra Bawiec, Ewa Burszta-Adamiak, Wiesław Fiałkiewicz

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The water shortage becomes a serious problem not only in African and Middle Eastern countries, but also recently in the European Union. Scarcity of water means that not all agricultural, industrial and municipal needs will be met. When the annual availability of renewable freshwater per capita is less than 1,700 cubic meters, countries begin to experience periodic or regular water shortages. The phenomenon of water stress is the result of an imbalance between the constantly growing demand for water and its availability. The constant development of industry, population growth, and climate changes make the situation even worse. The search for alternative water sources and independent supplies is becoming a priority for many countries. Data enabling the assessment of country’s condition regarding water resources, water consumption, water price, wastewater volume, forecasted climate changes e.g. temperature, precipitation, are scattered and their interpretation by common entrepreneurs may be difficult. For this purpose, a digital tool has been developed to support decisions related to the implementation of water and wastewater re-use systems, as a result of an international research project “Framework for organizational decision-making process in water reuse for smart cities” (SMART-WaterDomain) funded under the EIG-CONCERT Japan call on Smart Water Management for Sustainable Society. The developed geo-visualization tool graphically presents, among others, data about the capacity of wastewater treatment plants and the volume of water demand in the private and public sectors for Poland, Germany, and the Czech Republic. It is expected that such a platform, extended with economical water management data and climate forecasts (temperature, precipitation), will allow in the future independent investigation and assessment of water use rate and wastewater production on the local and regional scale. The tool is a great opportunity for small business owners, entrepreneurs, farmers, local authorities, and common users to analyze the impact of climate change on the availability of water in the regions of their business activities. Acknowledgments: The authors acknowledge the support of the Project Organisational Decision Making in Water Reuse for Smart Cities (SMART- WaterDomain), funded by The National Centre for Research and Development and supported by the EIG-Concert Japan.

Keywords: circular economy, digital tool, geo-visualization, wastewater re-use

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Authors: Hocini Yousra, Medjnoun Amal, Khiatine Mohamed, Bahar Ramdane

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The development of the regions of southern Algeria require the construction of numerous road, rail, and airport infrastructures. However, this development is very expensive given the very severe climatic conditions, the difficulty of reusing local materials, and the unavailability of water on the project sites; these regions are characterized by an arid or semi-arid climate, which means that water sources are very limited. The climatic conditions and the scarcity of water make soil compaction work very difficult and excessively expensive. These constraints related to the supply of water for irrigation of these construction sites make it necessary to examine the solution of compaction with low water content. This work studies the possibility of improving the compaction with a low water content of the soils of southern Algeria and this by using natural or recycled ecological materials. Local soils are first subjected to a series of laboratory characterization tests, then mixed with varying amounts of natural additives. The new materials are, in turn, subjected to road tests.

Keywords: compaction, low water content, sand, natural materials

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Authors: Saman Javadi, Mohammad Hassan Mahmoudi, Fatemeh Jafari, Aminreza Neshat

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Urmia Lake’s water level has been dropped during the past decade. Although the most common reason in studies was declared climate change, but observation of adjacent lake (like Van in Turkey) is not the same as the common reason. Most of studies were focused on climate and land use change, but groundwater resource as one of the most important element is negligible. Due to population and agriculture activities growth, exploration of groundwater resource has been increased. In as much as continued decline of water levels can lead to saltwater intrusion, reduce stream discharge near outcrop regions and threaten groundwater quality, aquifers of this region were affected by saltwater intrusion of Urmia Lake. In this research comparison of saltwater intrusion into eastern and western coastal aquifer was studied. In conclusion eastern aquifers are in a critical situation; vice versa the western ones are in a better situation. Thus applying management of groundwater operation would be necessary for eastern aquifers.

Keywords: coastal aquifer, groundwater over-exploration, saltwater intrusion, Urmia Lake

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Authors: Mojtaba Taheri, Saied Reza Ameli

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In this research, we have calculated the effect of membership in international climate change treaties for 20 developed countries based on the human development index (HDI) and compared this effect with the process of pollutant reduction in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory. For this purpose, the data related to The real GDP per capita with 2010 constant prices is selected from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database. Ecological Footprint (ECOFP) is the amount of biologically productive land needed to meet human needs and absorb carbon dioxide emissions. It is measured in global hectares (gha), and the data retrieved from the Global Ecological Footprint (2021) database will be used, and we will proceed by examining step by step and performing several series of targeted statistical regressions. We will examine the effects of different control variables, including Energy Consumption Structure (ECS) will be counted as the share of fossil fuel consumption in total energy consumption and will be extracted from The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2021) database. Energy Production (EP) refers to the total production of primary energy by all energy-producing enterprises in one country at a specific time. It is a comprehensive indicator that shows the capacity of energy production in the country, and the data for its 2021 version, like the Energy Consumption Structure, is obtained from (EIA). Financial development (FND) is defined as the ratio of private credit to GDP, and to some extent based on the stock market value, also as a ratio to GDP, and is taken from the (WDI) 2021 version. Trade Openness (TRD) is the sum of exports and imports of goods and services measured as a share of GDP, and we use the (WDI) data (2021) version. Urbanization (URB) is defined as the share of the urban population in the total population, and for this data, we used the (WDI) data source (2021) version. The descriptive statistics of all the investigated variables are presented in the results section. Related to the theories of sustainable development, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is more significant in the period of study. In this research, we use more than fourteen targeted statistical regressions to purify the net effects of each of the approaches and examine the results.

Keywords: climate change, globalization, environmental economics, sustainable development, international climate treaty

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Authors: Sawsan M. H. Domi

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Approximately 50% of the energy used in buildings, including houses, provide environmental comfortable levels of thermal living. In Khartoum - the city under study- cooling uses the largest portion of energy and the basic idea of Low energy houses is to minimize energy consumption. Therefore, houses are designed to use natural climate strategies to provide thermal comfort. Strategies such as semi-open spaces, shading devices, small high windows and thick walls. The study aims to review these strategies and then, apply them. It aims to change house microclimate by using vegetation, green areas, and other components. A low energy house is being designed s. It will be the first low energy house in Khartoum designed to create a low-cost energy efficient building without any mechanical systems. Three different types of houses in Khartoum are examined and evaluated according to their energy loads which provides the basis for the designed house. The designed house uses passive design strategies to reduce the need for cooling. These results show that the house reduced energy cooling loads by more than 60% compared to the average of the three given types. The design house is economically viable when taking into consideration the energy prices in Sudan.

Keywords: building envelope, climate, energy loads, ventilation

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Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak

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This study was analyzed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Thailand for the period 1981-2011.The study includes an analysis of the average and trends of changes in temperature and precipitation using 22 climate indices, related to the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme climate events. The results showed that the averaged trend of maximum, minimum and mean temperature is likely to increase over the study area in rate of 0.5, 0.9 and 0.7 °C in last 30 years. Changes in temperature at nighttime, then rising at a rate higher daytime is resulting to decline of diurnal temperature range throughout the area. Trend of changes in average precipitation during the year 1981-2011 is expected to increase at an average rate of 21%. The intensity of extreme temperature events is increasing almost all station. In particular, the changes of the night were unusually hot has intensified throughout the region. In some provinces such as Chiang Mai and Lampang are likely be faced with the severity of hot days and hot nights in increasing rate. Frequency of extreme temperature events are likely to increase each station, especially hot days, and hot nights are increasing at a rate of 2.38 and 3.58 days per decade. Changes in the cold days and cold nights are declining at a rate of 0.82 and 3.03 days per decade. The duration of extreme temperature events is expected to increase the events hot in every station. An average of 17.8 days per decade for the number of consecutive cold winter nights likely shortens the rate of 2.90 days per decade. The analysis of the precipitation indices reveals the intensity of extreme precipitation is increasing almost across the region. The intensify expressed the heavy rain in one day (Rx1day) and very heavy rain accumulated in 5 days (RX5day) which is likely to increase, and very heavy rainfall is likely to increase in intensity. Frequency of extreme precipitation events is likely to increase over the station. The average frequency of heavy precipitation events increased xxx days per decade. The duration of extreme precipitation events, such as the consecutive dry days are likely to reduce the numbers almost all station while the consecutive wet days tends to increase and decrease at different numbers in different areas.

Keywords: climate extreme, temperature extreme, precipitation extreme, Northern Thailand

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Authors: Isabela Vieira, Leonor Carvalho Garcez, Adalmiro Pereira, Tânia Teixeira

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In the present work, we aim to analyse IKEA as a company, by focusing on its development, financial analysis and future benchmarks, as well as applying some of the knowledge learned in class, namely hedging and other financial risk mitigation solutions, to understand how IKEA navigates and protects itself from risk. The decision that led us to choose IKEA for our casework has to do with the long history of the company since the 1940s and its high internationalization in 63 different markets. The company also has clear financial reports which aided us in the making of the present essay and naturally, was a factor that contributed to our decision.

Keywords: Ikea, financial risk, risk management, hedge

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Authors: M. Panahian

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A global challenge which is of paramount significance today is the issue of devising innovative solutions to tackle the environmental issues, as well as more intelligent and foresightful consumption of and management of natural resources. Changes in global climate resulting from the burning of fossil fuel and the rise in the level of energy consumption are a few examples of environmental issues detrimental to any form of life on earth, which are aggravated year by year. Overall, energy-efficient designs and construction strategies can be studied at three scales: building, block, and city. Nevertheless, as the available literature suggests, the greatest emphasis has been on building and city scales, and little has been done as to the energy-efficient designs at block scale. Therefore, the aim of the current research is to investigate the influences of residential block scale envelope on the energy consumption in buildings. To this end, a case study of residential block scale has been selected in the city of Isfahan, in Iran, situated in a hot and dry climate with cold winters. Eventually, the most effective variables in energy consumption, concerning the block scale envelope, will be concluded.

Keywords: sustainability, passive energy saving solutions, residential block scale, energy efficiency

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Authors: D. Makuteniene

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Agriculture, as one of the human activities, emits a significant amount of greenhouse gas emission and undoubtedly has an impact on climate change. The main gaseous products of agricultural greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitroxadoxide. The sources and emission of these gases depend on land use, soil, crops, manure, livestock, and energy consumption. One of the indicators showing the agricultural impact on climate change is an intensity of GHG emission and its dynamics. This study analyzed the determinants of an intensity of greenhouse gas emission in Lithuanian agriculture using data decomposition. The research revealed that, although greenhouse gas emission increased during the research period, however, agricultural net value added grew more rapidly, which contributed to a reduction of intensity of greenhouse gas emission in Lithuania between 2000 and 2015. It was identified that during the research period intensity of greenhouse gas emission was mostly increased by the change of the use of nitrogen in agriculture, as compared to the change of the area of agricultural land, and by the change of the number of full-time employees, as compared to the change of net value added. Conversely, the change of energy consumption in agriculture, as compared to the change of the use of nitrogen in agriculture, had a bigger impact in decreasing intensity of greenhouse gas emission.

Keywords: agriculture, determinants of intensity, greenhouse gas emission, intensity

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Authors: Harshan Tee Pee

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Climate elements include surface temperatures, rainfall patterns, humidity, type and amount of cloudiness, air pressure and wind speed and direction. Change in one element can have an impact on the regional climate. The scientific predictions indicate that global climate change will increase the number of extreme events, leading to more frequent natural hazards. Global warming is likely to intensify the risk of drought in certain parts and also leading to increased rainfall in some other parts. Drought is a slow advancing disaster and creeping phenomenon– which accumulate slowly over a long period of time. Droughts are naturally linked with aridity. But droughts occur over most parts of the world (both wet and humid regions) and create severe impacts on agriculture, basic household welfare and ecosystems. Drought condition occurs at least every three years in India. India is one among the most vulnerable drought prone countries in the world. The economic impacts resulting from extreme environmental events and disasters are huge as a result of disruption in many economic activities. The focus of this paper is to develop a comprehensive understanding about the distributional impacts of disaster, especially impact of drought on agricultural production and income through a panel study (drought year and one year after the drought) in Raikhel village, Maharashtra, India. The major findings of the study indicate that cultivating area as well as the number of cultivating households reduced after the drought, indicating a shift in the livelihood- households moved from agriculture to non-agriculture. Decline in the gross cropped area and production of various crops depended on the negative income from these crops in the previous agriculture season. All the landholding categories of households except landlords had negative income in the drought year and also the income disparities between the households were higher in that year. In the drought year, the cost of cultivation was higher for all the landholding categories due to the increased cost for irrigation and input cost. In the drought year, agriculture products (50 per cent of the total products) were used for household consumption rather than selling in the market. It is evident from the study that livelihood which was based on natural resources became less attractive to the people to due to the risk involved in it and people were moving to less risk livelihood for their sustenance.

Keywords: climate change, drought, agriculture economics, disaster impact

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Authors: Sam Weber, Deepak Mishra, Susan Wilde, Elizabeth Kramer

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The frequency and severity of cyanobacteria harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) have been increasing over time, with point and non-point source eutrophication and shifting climate paradigms being blamed as the primary culprits. Excessive nutrients, warm temperatures, quiescent water, and heavy and less regular rainfall create more conducive environments for CyanoHABs. CyanoHABs have the potential to produce a spectrum of toxins that cause gastrointestinal stress, organ failure, and even death in humans and animals. To promote enhanced, proactive CyanoHAB management, risk modeling using geospatial tools can act as predictive mechanisms to supplement current CyanoHAB monitoring, management and mitigation efforts. The risk maps would empower water managers to focus their efforts on high risk water bodies in an attempt to prevent CyanoHABs before they occur, and/or more diligently observe those waterbodies. For this research, exploratory spatial data analysis techniques were used to identify the strongest predicators for CyanoHAB blooms based on remote sensing-derived cyanobacteria cell density values for 771 waterbodies in the Georgia Piedmont and landscape characteristics of their watersheds. In-situ datasets for cyanobacteria cell density, nutrients, temperature, and rainfall patterns are not widely available, so free gridded geospatial datasets were used as proxy variables for assessing CyanoHAB risk. For example, the percent of a watershed that is agriculture was used as a proxy for nutrient loading, and the summer precipitation within a watershed was used as a proxy for water quiescence. Cyanobacteria cell density values were calculated using atmospherically corrected images from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2A satellite and multispectral instrument sensor at a 10-meter ground resolution. Seventeen explanatory variables were calculated for each watershed utilizing the multi-petabyte geospatial catalogs available within the Google Earth Engine cloud computing interface. The seventeen variables were then used in a multiple linear regression model, and the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density were selected for the final regression model. The seventeen explanatory variables included land cover composition, winter and summer temperature and precipitation data, topographic derivatives, vegetation index anomalies, and soil characteristics. Watershed maximum summer temperature, percent agriculture, percent forest, percent impervious, and waterbody area emerged as the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.31 and a p-value ~ 0. The final regression equation was used to make a normalized cyanobacteria cell density index, and a Jenks Natural Break classification was used to assign waterbodies designations of low, medium, or high risk. Of the 771 waterbodies, 24.38% were low risk, 37.35% were medium risk, and 38.26% were high risk. This study showed that there are significant relationships between free geospatial datasets representing summer maximum temperatures, nutrient loading associated with land use and land cover, and the area of a waterbody with cyanobacteria cell density. This data analytics approach to CyanoHAB risk assessment corroborated the literature-established environmental triggers for CyanoHABs, and presents a novel approach for CyanoHAB risk mapping in waterbodies across the greater southeastern United States.

Keywords: cyanobacteria, land use/land cover, remote sensing, risk mapping

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Authors: Evren Ozgur, Kasim Kocak

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As a result of global warming and climate change, air temperature has increased and will continue to increase in the future. Increases in air temperatures have effects on a large number of variables in meteorology. One of the most important effects is the changes in the types of precipitation, especially in mid-latitudes. Because of increasing air temperatures, less snowfall was observed in the eastern parts of Turkey. Snowfall provides most of the water supply in spring and summer months, especially in mountainous regions of Turkey. When the temperature begins to increase in spring season, this snow starts to melt and plays an important role in agricultural purposes, drinking water supply and energy production. On the other hand, defining the snow season is very crucial especially in mountainous areas which have winter tourism opportunities. A reduction in the length of the snow season (LSS) in these regions will result in serious consequences in the long run. In the study, snow season was examined for 10 meteorological stations that are located above the altitude of 1000m. These stations have decreasing trends in the ratio of number of snowy days to total precipitation days considering earlier studies. Daily precipitation records with the observation period of 1971-2011 were used in the study. Then, the observation period was separated into 4 non-overlapping parts in order to identify decadal variations. Changes in the length of the snow season with increasing temperatures were obtained for these stations. The results of LSS were evaluated with the number of snowy days for each station. All stations have decreasing trend in number of snowy days for 1971-2011 period. In addition, seven of the results are statistically significant. Besides, decrease is observed regarding the length of snow season for studied stations. The decrease varies between 6.6 and 47.6 days according to decadal snow season averages of the stations.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, precipitation, snowfall, Turkey

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Authors: Lauren A. Bailey, Amber R. Childs, Nicola C. James, Murray I. Duncan, Alexander Winkler, Warren M. Potts

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For the persistence of fished populations in the Anthropocene, it is critical to predict how fished populations will respond to the coupled threats of exploitation and climate change for adaptive management. The resilience of fished populations will depend on their capacity for physiological plasticity and acclimatization in response to environmental shifts. However, there is evidence for the selection of physiological traits by capture fisheries. Hence, fish populations may have a limited scope for the rapid expansion of their tolerance ranges or physiological adaptation under fishing pressures. To determine the physiological vulnerability of fished populations in the Anthropocene, the metabolic performance was compared between a fished and spatially protected Chrysoblephus laticeps population in response to thermal variability. Individual aerobic scope phenotypes were quantified using intermittent flow respirometry by comparing changes in energy expenditure of each individual at ecologically relevant temperatures, mimicking variability experienced as a result of upwelling and downwelling events. The proportion of high and low-performance individuals were compared between the fished and spatially protected population. The fished population had limited aerobic scope phenotype diversity and fewer high-performance phenotypes, resulting in a significantly lower aerobic scope curve across low (10 °C) and high (24 °C) thermal treatments. The performance of fished populations may be compromised with predicted future increases in cold upwelling events. This requires the conservation of the physiologically fittest individuals in spatially protected areas, which can recruit into nearby fished areas, as a climate resilience tool.

Keywords: climate change, fish physiology, metabolic shifts, over-fishing, respirometry

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Authors: Rodrigo I. Ullauri, Santiago E. Tinajero, Omar O. Ramos, Paola R. Quintana

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The increase of CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere and its impact on climate change is a global concern. The transportation sector is a significant consumer of fossil fuels and contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. The current challenge is to find ways to reduce the use of fossil fuels in transportation. In Ecuador, where 92% of electricity is generated from clean sources, the concept of e-mobility is considered an attractive alternative to address the challenge of sustainable mobility. The proposal is to migrate from combustion-powered vehicles to electric vehicles in the electric companies of Ecuador, using a methodology to standardize criteria, determine specific requirements, contrast technical characteristics, and estimate emission reductions. The results showed that there are three categories of vehicles that have electric counterparts suitable for performing activities under certain operation parameters inherent to current technology limitations but with a significant contribution to the reduction of annual CO₂ emissions.

Keywords: climate change, electro mobility, energy, sustainable transportation

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Authors: Nicolas Meylan, Eric Tardif

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Many studies have highlighted the links between substance use and school difficulties. However, most of these studies address only the consumption in terms of frequency without considering the different types of behavior (use, abuse, dependence). Moreover, little is known about the associations between substance use and variables such as school engagement and school burnout recently described as a positive state of mind and an exhaustion syndrome related to school, respectively. Through this study, we wish to describe and compare school-related variables in adolescents with different type of substance use. Our study focuses on 402 Swiss adolescents, aged between 14 and 19 years old. They responded collectively and anonymously to a set of scales assessing substance use and several school variables (social support, stress, burnout, engagement and school climate). First, results on frequency and severity of substance use are relatively close to those observed in other studies. Second, it also appears that certain dimensions of stress, burnout, engagement and school climate are associated with the frequency of alcohol and cannabis consumption. Finally, adolescents’ substance abusers show particularly high scores of burnout, cynicism and stress related to workload, which can be understand as self-medication behavior. Additional analyzes are underway to clarify these associations. Results are discussed in terms of implications for research and clinical practice in academic burnout.

Keywords: school burnout, school engagement, adolescence, substance use, self-medication

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Authors: S. Vavias, T. R. Brewer, T. S. Farewell

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Coastal floods have been identified as an important natural hazard that can cause significant damage to the populated built-up areas, related infrastructure and also ecosystems and habitats. This study attempts to fill the gap associated with the development of preliminary assessments of coastal flood vulnerability for compliance with the EU Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC). In this context, a methodology has been created by taking into account three major parameters; the maximum wave run-up modelled from historical weather observations, the highest tide according to historic time series, and the sea level rise projections due to climate change. A high resolution digital terrain model (DTM) derived from LIDAR data has been used to integrate the estimated flood events in a GIS environment. The flood vulnerability map created shows potential risk areas and can play a crucial role in the coastal zone planning process. The proposed method has the potential to be a powerful tool for policy and decision makers for spatial planning and strategic management.

Keywords: coastal floods, vulnerability mapping, climate change, extreme weather events

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Authors: Sherry Ann Ganase, Sandra Sookram

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In this paper, the vulnerability level to climate change is analysed using a comprehensive index, consisting of five pillars: human, social, natural, physical, and financial. A structural equation model is also applied to determine the indicators and relationships that exist between the observed environmental changes and the quality of life. Using survey data to model the results, a value of 0.382 is derived as the vulnerability level for San Pedro, where values closer to zero indicates lower vulnerability and values closer to one indicates higher vulnerability. The results showed the social pillar to be most vulnerable, with the indicator ‘participation’ ranked the highest in its cohort. Although, the environmental pillar is ranked as least vulnerable, the indicators ‘hazard’ and ‘biodiversity’ obtained scores closer to 0.4, suggesting that changes in the environment are occurring from natural and anthropogenic activities. These changes can negatively influence the quality of life as illustrated in the structural equation modelling. The study concludes by reporting on the need for collective action and participation by households in lowering vulnerability to ensure sustainable development and livelihood.

Keywords: climate change, participation, San Pedro, structural equation model, vulnerability index

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Authors: Dedjo Yao Simon, Takahiro Saito, Norikazu Inuzuka, Ikuo Sugiyama

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Abidjan city (Republic of Ivory Coast) is an emerging megacity and an urban coastal area where the number of floods reported is on a rapid increase due to climate change and unplanned urbanization. However, comprehensive disaster mitigation plans, policies, and financial resources are still lacking as the population ignores the extent and location of the flood zones; making them unprepared to mitigate the damages. Considering the existing condition, this paper aims to discuss an approach for flood risk reduction in Cocody Commune through value capture strategy and flood risk communication. Using geospatial techniques and hydrological simulation, we start our study by delineating flood zones and depths under several return periods in the study area. Then, through a questionnaire a field survey is conducted in order to validate the flood maps, to estimate the flood risk and to collect some sample of the opinion of residents on how the flood risk information disclosure could affect the values of property located inside and outside the flood zones. The results indicate that the study area is highly vulnerable to 5-year floods and more, which can cause serious harm to human lives and to properties as demonstrated by the extent of the 5-year flood of 2014. Also, it is revealed there is a high probability that the values of property located within flood zones could decline, and the values of surrounding property in the safe area could increase when risk information disclosure commences. However in order to raise public awareness of flood disaster and to prevent future housing promotion in high-risk prospective areas, flood risk information should be disseminated through the establishment of an early warning system. In order to reduce the effect of risk information disclosure and to protect the values of property within the high-risk zone, we propose that property tax increments in flood free zones should be captured and be utilized for infrastructure development and to maintain the early warning system that will benefit people living in flood prone areas. Through this case study, it is shown that combination of value capture strategy and risk communication could be an effective tool to educate citizen and to invest in flood risk reduction in emerging countries.

Keywords: Cocody-Abidjan, flood, geospatial techniques, risk communication, value capture

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Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 107