Search results for: risk management failure

Authors: Luksanaporn Krungkraipetch

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Pterygium is a frequent ocular surface lesion that begins in the limbal conjunctiva within the palpebral fissure and spreads to the cornea. The lesion is more common in the nasal limbus than in the temporal, and it has a wing-like aspect. Indications for surgery, in decreasing order of significance, are growth over the corneal center, decreased vision due to corneal deformation, documented growth, sensations of discomfort, and esthetic concerns. The aim of this study is twofold: first, to determine the frequency of pterygium recurrence after surgery at the mentioned hospital, and second, to identify the factors that influence the recurrence of pterygium. The research design is a retrospective examination of 164 patient samples in an eastern Thai university hospital (Code 13766). Data analysis is descriptive statistics analysis, i.e., basic data details about pterygium surgery and the risk of recurrent pterygium, and for factor analysis, the inferential statistics chi-square and ANOVA are utilized. Twenty-four of the 164 patients who underwent surgery exhibited recurrent pterygium. Consequently, the incidence of recurrent pterygium after surgery was 14.6%. There were an equal number of men and women present. The participants' ages ranged from 41 to 60 years (62, 8 percent). According to the findings, the majority of patients were female (60.4%), over the age of 60 (51.2%), did not live near the beach (83.5%), did not have an underlying disease (92.1%), and 95.7% did not have any other eye problems. Gender (X² = 1.26, p = .289), age (X² = 5.86, p = .119), an address near the sea (X² = 3.30, p = .081)), underlying disease (X² = 0.54, p = .694), and eye disease (X² = 0.00, p = 1.00) had no effect on pterygium recurrence. Recurrences occurred in 79.1% of all surgical procedures and 11.6% of all patients using the bare sclera technique. The recurrence rate for conjunctival autografts was 20.9% for all procedures and 3.0% for all participants. Mitomycin-C and amniotic membrane transplant techniques had no recurrence following surgery. Comparing the surgeries done on people with recurrent pterygium did not show anything important (F = 1.13, p = 0.339). In conclusion, the prevalence of pterygium recurrence following pterygium, 14.6%, does not differ from earlier research. Underlying disease, other eye conditions, and surgical procedures such as pterygium recurrence are unaffected by pterygium surgery.

Keywords: pterygium, recurrence pterygium, pterygium surgery, excision pterygium

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Authors: Teklay Gebrecherkos, Dawit Wolday, Muhamud Abdulkader

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Background: COVID-19 symptomatology in Africa appears significantly less serious than in the industrialized world. Our hypothesis for this phenomenon, being a different, more activated immune system due to parasite infections contributes to reduced COVID-19 outcome. We investigated this hypothesis in an endemic area in sub sub-saharan Africa. Methods: Ethiopian COVID-19 patients were enrolled and screened for intestinal parasites, between July 2020 and March 2021. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with severe COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by RT-PCR on samples obtained from nasopharyngeal swabs, while direct microscopic examination, modified Ritchie concentration, and Kato-Katz methods were used to identify parasites and ova from a fresh stool sample. Ordinal logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between parasite infection and COVID-19 severity. Models were adjusted for sex, age, residence, education level, occupation, body mass index, and comorbidities. Data were analyzed using STATA version 14. P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: A total of 751 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients were enrolled, of whom 284 (37•8%) had an intestinal parasitic infection. Only 27/255 (10•6%) severe COVID-19 patients were co-infected with intestinal parasites, while 257/496 (51•8%) non-severe COVID-19 patients appeared parasite positive (p<0.0001). Patients co-infected with parasites had lower odds of developing severe COVID-19, with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0•14 (95% CI 0•09–0•24; p<0•0001) for all parasites, AOR 0•20 ([95% CI 0•11–0•38]; p<0•0001) for protozoa, and AOR 0•13 ([95% CI 0•07–0•26]; p<0•0001) for helminths. When stratified by species, co-infection with Entamoeba spp., Hymenolopis nana, and Schistosoma mansoni implied a lower probability of developing severe COVID-19. There were 11 deaths (1•5%), and all were among patients without parasites (p=0•009). Conclusions: Parasite co-infection is associated with a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 in African patients. Parasite-driven immunomodulatory responses may mute hyper-inflammation associated with severe COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-COV-2, intestinal parasite, RT-PCR, co-infection

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Authors: Konstantinos G. Kostinakis, Manthos K. Papadopoulos, Asimina M. Athanatopoulou

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An important area of research in seismic risk analysis is the evaluation of expected seismic damage of structures under a specific earthquake ground motion. Several conventional intensity measures of ground motion have been used to estimate their damage potential to structures. Yet, none of them was proved to be able to predict adequately the seismic damage of any structural system. Therefore, alternative advanced intensity measures which take into account not only ground motion characteristics but also structural information have been proposed. The adequacy of a number of advanced earthquake intensity measures in prediction of structural damage of 3D R/C buildings under seismic excitation which attacks the building with arbitrary incident angle is investigated in the present paper. To achieve this purpose, a symmetric in plan and an asymmetric 5-story R/C building are studied. The two buildings are subjected to 20 bidirectional earthquake ground motions. The two horizontal accelerograms of each ground motion are applied along horizontal orthogonal axes forming 72 different angles with the structural axes. The response is computed by non-linear time history analysis. The structural damage is expressed in terms of the maximum interstory drift as well as the overall structural damage index. The values of the aforementioned seismic damage measures determined for incident angle 0° as well as their maximum values over all seismic incident angles are correlated with 9 structure-specific ground motion intensity measures. The research identified certain intensity measures which exhibited strong correlation with the seismic damage of the two buildings. However, their adequacy for estimation of the structural damage depends on the response parameter adopted. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the widely used spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure is a good indicator of the expected earthquake damage level.

Keywords: damage indices, non-linear response, seismic excitation angle, structure-specific intensity measures

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Authors: Lee Yan Nian

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Safety investigation is different from an administrative investigation in that the former is conducted by an independent agency and the purpose of such investigation is to prevent accidents in the future and not to apportion blame or determine liability. Before October 2018, Taiwan railway occurrences were investigated by local supervisory authority. Characteristics of this kind of investigation are that enforcement actions, such as administrative penalty, are usually imposed on those persons or units involved in occurrence. On October 21, 2018, due to a Taiwan Railway accident, which caused 18 fatalities and injured another 267, establishing an agency to independently investigate this catastrophic railway accident was quickly decided. The Taiwan Transportation Safety Board (TTSB) was then established on August 1, 2019 to take charge of investigating major aviation, marine, railway and highway occurrences. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of safety investigations conducted by the TTSB. In this study, the major railway occurrence investigation reports published by the TTSB are used for modeling and analysis. According to the classification of railway occurrences investigated by the TTSB, accident types of Taiwan railway occurrences can be categorized into: derailment, fire, Signal Passed at Danger and others. A Causal Factor Analysis System (CFAS) developed by the TTSB is used to identify the influencing causal factors and their causal relationships in the investigation reports. All terminologies used in the CFAS are equivalent to the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) terminologies, except for “Technical Events” which was added to classify causal factors resulting from mechanical failure. Accordingly, the Bayesian network structure of each occurrence category is established based on the identified causal factors in the CFAS. In the Bayesian networks, the prior probabilities of identified causal factors are obtained from the number of times in the investigation reports. Conditional Probability Table of each parent node is determined from domain experts’ experience and judgement. The resulting networks are quantitatively assessed under different scenarios to evaluate their forward predictions and backward diagnostic capabilities. Finally, the established Bayesian network of derailment is assessed using investigation reports of the same accident which was investigated by the TTSB and the local supervisory authority respectively. Based on the assessment results, findings of the administrative investigation is more closely tied to errors of front line personnel than to organizational related factors. Safety investigation can identify not only unsafe acts of individual but also in-depth causal factors of organizational influences. The results show that the proposed methodology can identify differences between safety investigation and administrative investigation. Therefore, effective intervention strategies in associated areas can be better addressed for safety improvement and future accident prevention through safety investigation.

Keywords: administrative investigation, bayesian network, causal factor analysis system, safety investigation

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Authors: Farida Mellah, Abdelhak Boutaleb, Bachir Henni, Dalila Berdous, Abdelhamid Mellah

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Context/Purpose: One of the largest mining operations for lead and zinc deposits in northwestern Algeria in more than thirty years, El Abed is now the abandoned mine that has been inactive since 2004, leaving large amounts of accumulated mining waste under the influence of Wind, erosion, rain, and near agricultural lands. Materials & Methods: This study aims to verify the concentrations and sources of heavy metals for surface samples containing randomly taken soil. Chemical analyses were performed using iCAP 7000 Series ICP-optical emission spectrometer, using a set of environmental quality indicators by calculating the enrichment factor using iron and aluminum references, geographic accumulation index and geographic information system (GIS). On the basis of the spatial distribution. Results: The results indicated that the average metal concentration was: (As = 30,82),(Pb = 1219,27), (Zn = 2855,94), (Cu = 5,3), mg/Kg,based on these results, all metals except Cu passed by GBV in the Earth's crust. Environmental quality indicators were calculated based on the concentrations of trace metals such as lead, arsenic, zinc, copper, iron and aluminum. Interpretation: This study investigated the concentrations and sources of trace metals, and by using quality indicators and statistical methods, lead, zinc, and arsenic were determined from human sources, while copper was a natural source. And based on the spatial analysis on the basis of GIS, many hot spots were identified in the El-Abed region. Conclusion: These results could help in the development of future treatment strategies aimed primarily at eliminating materials from mining waste.

Keywords: soil contamination, trace metals, geochemical indices, El Abed mine, Algeria

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Authors: Yawei Liang

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Threat from cruise missiles is among the most dangerous considerations to a warship in the modern era: anti-ship cruise missiles are fast, accurate, and extremely destructive. In this paper, the goal was to use an object-orientated environment to program a simulation to model a scenario in which a lone frigate is attacked by a wave of missiles fired at given intervals. The parameters of the simulation are modified to examine the relationships between different variables in the situation, and an analysis is performed on various aspects of the defending ship’s equipment. Finally, the results are presented, along with a brief discussion.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, Monte Carlo simulation, naval resource management, weapon-target allocation/assignment

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Authors: Intisar Al Busaidi, Rashid Al Maamari, Daowoud Al Mahroqi, Mahvash Karimi

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In recent years, some research studies have been performed on the hybrid application of polymer and low salinity water flooding (LSWF). Numerous technical and economic benefits of low salinity polymer flooding (LSPF) have been reported. However, as with any EOR technology, there are various risks involved in using LSPF. Ions exchange between porous media and brine is one of the Crude oil/ brine/ rocks (COBR) reactions that is identified as a potential risk in LSPF. To the best of our knowledge, this conclusion was drawn based on bulk rheology measurements, and no explanation was provided on how water chemistry changed in the presence of polymer. Therefore, this study aimed to understand rock/ brine interactions with high and low salinity brine in the absence and presence of polymer with Omani reservoir core plugs. Many single-core flooding experiments were performed with low and high salinity polymer solutions to investigate the influence of partially hydrolyzed polyacrylic amide with different brine salinities on cation exchange reactions. Ion chromatography (IC), total organic carbon (TOC), rheological, and pH measurements were conducted for produced aqueous phase. A higher increase in pH and lower polymer adsorption was observed in LSPF compared with conventional polymer flooding. In addition, IC measurements showed that all produced fluids in the absence and presence of polymer showed elevated Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K+, Cl- and SO₄²⁻ ions compared to the injected fluids. However, the divalent cations levels, mainly Ca²⁺, were the highest and remained elevated for several pore volumes in the presence of LSP. The results are in line with rheological measurements where the highest viscosity reduction was recorded with the highest level of Ca²⁺ production. Despite the viscosity loss due to cation exchange reactions, LSP can be an attractive alternative to conventional polymer flooding in the Marmul field.

Keywords: polymer, ions, exchange, recovery, low salinity

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Authors: Ana L. Sánchez Regla, Igor A. Rivera González, María del Pilar Monserrat Pérez Hernández

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The ability of an organization to identify and get useful information from external sources, assimilate it, transform and apply to generate products or services with added value is called absorptive capacity. Absorptive capabilities contribute to have market opportunities to firms and get a leader position with respect to others competitors. The Bioprocess Development and Research Unit (UDIBI) is a Research and Development (R&D) laboratory that belongs to the National Polytechnic Institute (IPN), which is a higher education institute in Mexico. The UDIBI was created with the purpose of carrying out R and D activities for the Transferon®, a biopharmaceutical product developed and patented by IPN. The evolution of competence and scientific and technological platform made UDIBI expand its scope by providing technological services (preclínical studies and bio-compatibility evaluation) to the national pharmaceutical industry and biopharmaceutical industry. The relevance of this study is that those industries are classified as high scientific and technological intensity, and yet, after a review of the state of the art, there is only one study of absorption capabilities in biopharmaceutical industry with a similar scope to this research; in the case of Mexico, there is none. In addition to this, UDIBI belongs to a public university and its operation does not depend on the federal budget, but on the income generated by its external technological services. This fact represents a highly remarkable case in Mexico's public higher education context. This current doctoral research (2015-2019) is contextualized within a case study, its main objective is to identify and analyze the absorptive capabilities that characterise the UDIBI that allows it had become in a one of two third authorized laboratory by the sanitary authority in Mexico for developed bio-comparability studies to bio-pharmaceutical products. The development of this work in the field is divided into two phases. In a first phase, 15 interviews were conducted with the UDIBI personnel, covering management levels, heads of services, project leaders and laboratory personnel. These interviews were structured under a questionnaire, which was designed to integrate open questions and to a lesser extent, others, whose answers would be answered on a Likert-type rating scale. From the information obtained in this phase, a scientific article was made (in review and a proposal of presentation was submitted in different academic forums. A second stage will be made from the conduct of an ethnographic study within this organization under study that will last about 3 months. On the other hand, it is intended to carry out interviews with external actors around the UDIBI (suppliers, advisors, IPN officials, including contact with an academic specialized in absorption capacities to express their comments on this thesis. The inicial findings had shown two lines: i) exist institutional, technological and organizational management elements that encourage and/or limit the creation of absorption capacities in this scientific and technological laboratory and, ii) UDIBI has had created a set of multiple transfer technology of knowledge mechanisms which have had permitted to build a huge base of prior knowledge.

Keywords: absorptive capabilities, biopharmaceutical industry, high research and development intensity industries, knowledge management, transfer of knowledge

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Authors: Deginet Aklilu, Tianqi Wang, Endwoke Amsalu, Wei Feng, Zhiwei Li, Xia Li, Lixin Tao, Yanxia Luo, Moning Guo, Xiangtong Liu, Xiuhua Guo

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Extreme temperature-related cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have become a growing public health concern. However, the impact of temperature on the cause of specific CVDs has not been well studied in the study area. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of temperature on cause-specific cardiovascular hospital admissions in Beijing, China. We obtained data from 172 large general hospitals from the Beijing Public Health Information Center Cardiovascular Case Database and China. Meteorological Administration covering 16 districts in Beijing from 2013 to 2017. We used a time-stratified case crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to derive the impact of temperature on CVD in hospitals back to 27 days on CVD admissions. The temperature data were stratified as cold (extreme and moderate ) and hot (moderate and extreme ). Within five years (January 2013-December 2017), a total of 460,938 (male 54.9% and female 45.1%) CVD admission cases were reported. The exposure-response relationship for hospitalization was described by a "J" shape for the total and cause-specific. An increase in the six-day moving average temperature from moderate hot (30.2 °C) to extreme hot (36.9 °C) resulted in a significant increase in CVD admissions of 16.1%(95% CI = 12.8%-28.9%). However, the effect of cold temperature exposure on CVD admissions over a lag time of 0-27 days was found to be non significant, with a relative risk of 0.45 (95% CI = 0.378-0.55) for extreme cold (-8.5 °C)and 0.53 (95% CI = 0.47-0.60) for moderate cold (-5.6 °C). The results of this study indicate that exposure to extremely high temperatures is highly associated with an increase in cause-specific CVD admissions. These finding may guide to create and raise awareness of the general population, government and private sectors regarding on the effects of current weather conditions on CVD.

Keywords: admission, Beijing, cardiovascular diseases, distributed lag non linear model, temperature

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Authors: Amro Matyori, Fatimah Sherbeny, Askal Ali, Olayiwola Popoola

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Objectives: The study evaluated the impact of COVID-19 on anxiety levels in the general population in the United States. Methods: The study used an online questionnaire. It adopted the Generalized Anxiety Disorder Assessment (GAD-7) instrument. It is a self-administered scale with seven items used as a screening tool and severity measure for generalized anxiety disorder. The participants rated the frequency of anxiety symptoms in the last two weeks on a Likert scale, which ranges from 0-3. Then the item points are summed to provide the total score. Results: Thirty-two participants completed the questionnaire. Among them, 24 (83%) females and 5 (17%) males. The age range of 18-24-year-old represented the most respondents. Only one of the participants tested positive for the COVID-19, and 39% of them, one of their family members, friends, or colleagues, tested positive for the coronavirus. Moreover, 10% have lost a family member, a close friend, or a colleague because of COVID-19. Among the respondents, there were ten who scored approximately five points on the GAD-7 scale, which indicates mild anxiety. Furthermore, eight participants scored 10 to 14 points, which put them under the category of moderate anxiety, and one individual who was categorized under severe anxiety scored 15 points. Conclusions: It is identified that most of the respondents scored the points that put them under the mild anxiety category during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is also noticed that severe anxiety was the lowest among the participants, and people who tested positive and/or their family members, close friends, and colleagues were more likely to experience anxiety. Additionally, participants who lost friends or family members were also at high risk of anxiety. It is obvious the COVID-19 outcomes and too much thinking about the pandemic put people under stress which led to anxiety. Therefore, continuous assessment and monitoring of psychological outcomes during pandemics will help to establish early well-informed interventions.

Keywords: anxiety and covid-19, covid-19 and mental health outcomes, influence of covid-19 on anxiety, population and covid-19 impact on mental health

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Authors: Wahiba Boudraa, Farah Chettibbi, Meriem Aberkane, Fatma Djamaa, Moussa Houhamdi

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The intensity of human activities in regions surrounding the Mediterranean Sea always has a strong long-term environmental impact resulting in coastal and marine degradation, as well as an aggravated risk of more serious damage. The available data on water quality show that most water resources in Algeria are polluted by uncontrolled discharges from municipal sewage and untreated industrial effluents. Annaba is a coastal town in Algeria; The Gulf of Annaba, responds to these changes as it receives the continental inputs and urban waste, industrial without prior treatment of a highly industrialized and urbanized city, subject to the same environmental problems that know the rest of the Algerian coast. In later year, the beaches of bacterial enumeration process waters showed relatively high levels of bacterial indicators of fecal contamination (group D streptococci, total and fecal coliforms), which reflect the risks to people attending these beaches. During the twelve months of our study, we isolated from three beaches in the city of Annaba (St. Cloud, El-Kettara, and Djenane El Bey) a number of pathogenic microorganisms considered, namely: Salmonella, Aeromonas, Citrobacter, Yersinia, Enterococcus, and E.coli. The microbial count revealed elevated levels of coliform bacteria, fecal coliforms and fecal streptococci quite high especially in urban beaches (St. Cloud and El-Kettara). They are widely popular during the summer by many vacationers. For the physico-chemical parameters, there exist some weak values which increase during the pluvial period, hivernal and festival saison. These values remain, nevertheless, weak to be able to cause an organic or metallic pollution.

Keywords: quality microbiology, pollution of water, fecal contamination, physico-chemistry, beaches of Annaba city, Algeria.

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Authors: Bakari Mohammed

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Sports performance and achievements have been the avenue through which great nations of the world exhibit their supremacy over others through sports development strategy. Effective sports development, therefore, requires variables like sports policy, sports funding, sports programme, sports facilities and sponsorship. The extent to what these variables are met shall no doubt affects the effectiveness of any sports development. Two distinguishing features of the Nigerian sports system are its central organization and its employment for specific socio-political objectives, it is against this backdrop that this paper will x-ray the politicization of sports which parallels sports development in the enhanced role of sports and in contrast with developed nations system and management.

Keywords: sport development, sport policy, personnel, program, facilities, funding, sponsorship

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Authors: Emilienne Lardy, Eric Ballot, Mariam Lafkihi

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Efficient urban logistics requires a comprehensive understanding of traffic dynamics, particularly as it pertains to kinetic parameters influencing energy consumption and trip duration estimations. While real-time traffic information is increasingly accessible, current high-precision forecasting services embedded in route planning often function as opaque 'black boxes' for users. These services, typically relying on AI-processed counting data, fall short in accommodating open design parameters essential for management studies, notably within Supply Chain Management. This work revisits the modelling of traffic conditions in the context of city logistics, emphasizing its significance from the user’s point of view, with two focuses. Firstly, the focus is not on the vehicle flow but on the vehicles themselves and the impact of the traffic conditions on their driving behaviour. This means opening the range of studied indicators beyond vehicle speed, to describe extensively the kinetic and dynamic aspects of the driving behaviour. To achieve this, we leverage the Art. Kinema parameters are designed to characterize driving cycles. Secondly, this study examines how the driving context (i.e., exogenous factors to the traffic flow) determines the mentioned driving behaviour. Specifically, we explore how accurately the kinetic behaviour of a vehicle can be predicted based on a limited set of exogenous factors, such as time, day, road type, orientation, slope, and weather conditions. To answer this question, statistical analysis was conducted on real-world driving data, which includes high-frequency measurements of vehicle speed. A Factor Analysis and a Generalized Linear Model have been established to link kinetic parameters with independent categorical contextual variables. The results include an assessment of the adjustment quality and the robustness of the models, as well as an overview of the model’s outputs.

Keywords: factor analysis, generalised linear model, real world driving data, traffic congestion, urban logistics, vehicle kinematics

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Authors: Aysegul Alyamac, Sukru Gulec

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Ankaferd Blood Stopper (ABS) is a plant extract used to stop bleeding caused by injuries and surgical interventions. ABS also involved in wound healing of intestinal mucosal damage due to oxidative stress and inflammation. Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is a common chronic disorder of the gastrointestinal tract that causes abdominal pain, diarrhea, and gastrointestinal bleeding, and increases the risk of colon cancer. Inflammation is an essential factor in the development of IBD. The various studies have been performed about the physiological effects of ABS; however, ABS dependent mechanism on colonic inflammation has not been elucidated. Thus, the protective effect of ABS on colonic inflammation was investigated in this study. The Caco-2 and RAW 264.7 murine macrophage cells were used as a model of in vitro colonic inflammation. RAW 264.7 cells were treated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) for 12 hours to induce the inflammation, and a conditional medium was obtained. Caco-2 cells were treated with 15 µl/ml ABS for 4 hours, then incubated with conditional medium and the cells also were incubated with 15 µl/ml ABS and conditional medium together for 4 hours. Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) protein levels were targeted in testing inflammatory condition and its level was significantly increased (25 fold, p<0.001) compared to the control group by using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) method. The COX-2 mRNA level was used as a marker gene to show the possible anti-inflammatory effect of ABS in Caco-2 cells. RAW cells-derived conditional medium significantly (3.3 fold, p<0.001) induced cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) mRNA levels in Caco-2 cells. The pretreatment of Caco-2 cells caused a significant decrease (3.3 fold, p<0.001) in COX-2 mRNA levels relative to conditional medium given group. Furthermore, COX-2 mRNA level was significantly reduced (4,7 fold, p<0.001) in ABS and conditional medium treated group. These results suggest that ABS might have an anti-inflammatory effect in vitro.

Keywords: Ankaferd blood stopper, CaCo-2, colonic inflammation, RAW 264.7

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Authors: K. W. Lee, C. M. Choi, H. C. Tsang, W. K. Fong, Y. K. Cheng, L. Y. Chan, C. K. Yuen, P. W. Lau, Y. L. To, K. C. Chow

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QR (Quick Response) Code is a matrix barcode. It enables users to open websites, photos and other information with mobile devices by just snapping the code. In usual Long Term Oxygen Therapy arrangement, piles of LTOT related information like leaflets from different oxygen service providers are given to patients to choose an appropriate plan according to their needs. If these printed materials are transformed into electronic format (QR Code), it would be more environmentally-friendly. More importantly, electronic materials including LTOT equipment operation and dyspnoea relieving techniques also empower patients in long-term disease management. The objective to this study is to investigate the effect of QR code in patient education on new LTOT users. This study was carried out in medical wards of North District Hospital. Adult patients and relatives who followed commands, were able to use smartphones with internet services and required LTOT arrangement on hospital discharge were recruited. In LTOT arrangement, apart from the usual LTOT education booklets which included patients’ personal information (e.g. oxygen titration and six-minute walk test results etc.), extra leaflets consisted of 1. QR codes of LTOT plans from different oxygen service providers, 2. Education materials of dyspnoea management and 3. Instructions on LTOT equipment operation were given. Upon completion of LTOT arrangement, a questionnaire about the use of QR code on patient education was filled in by patients or relatives. A total of 10 new LTOT users were recruited from November 2017 to January 2018. Initially, 70% of them did not know anything about the QR code, but all of them understood its operation after a simple demonstration. 70% of them agreed that it was convenient to use (20% strongly agree, 40% agree, 10% somewhat agree). 80% of them agreed that QR code could facilitate the retrieval of more LTOT related information (10% strongly agree, 70% agree) while 90% agreed that we should continue delivering QR code leaflets to new LTOT users in the future (30% strongly agree, 40% agree, 20% somewhat agree). It is proven that QR code is a convenient and environmentally-friendly tool to deliver information. It is also relatively easy to be introduced to new users. It has received welcoming feedbacks from current users.

Keywords: long-term oxygen therapy, physiotherapy, patient education, QR code

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: Garima Singh, Kunal Malhotra

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Objective: The expansion of telehealth has been instrumental in increasing access to medical services, especially for underserved and rural communities. In 2020, 14 million patients received virtual care through telemedicine and the global telemedicine market is expected to reach up to $185 million by 2023. It provides a platform and allows a patient to receive primary care as well as specialized care using technology and the comfort of their homes. Telemedicine was particularly useful during COVID-pandemic and the number of telehealth visits increased by 5000% during that time. It continues to serve as a significant resource for patients seeking care and to bridge the gap between the disease and the treatment. Method: As per APA (American Psychiatric Association), Telemedicine is the process of providing health care from a distance through technology. It is a subset of telemedicine, and can involve providing a range of services, including evaluations, therapy, patient education and medication management. It can involve direct interaction between a physician and the patient. It also encompasses supporting primary care providers with specialist consultation and expertise. It can also involve recording medical information (images, videos, etc.) and sending this to a distant site for later review. Results: In our organization, we are using telepsychiatry and serving 25 counties and approximately 1.4 million people. We provide multiple services, including inpatient, outpatient, crisis intervention, Rehab facility, autism services, case management, community treatment and multiple other modalities. With project ECHO (Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes) it has been used to advise and assist primary care providers in treating mental health. It empowers primary care providers to treat patients in their own community by sharing knowledge. Conclusion: Telemedicine has shown to be a great medium in meeting patients’ needs and accessible mental health. It has been shown to improve access to care in both urban and rural settings by bringing care to a patient and reducing barriers like transportation, financial stress and resources. Telemedicine is also helping with reducing ER visits, integrating primary care and improving the continuity of care and follow-up. There has been substantial evidence and research about its effectiveness and its usage.

Keywords: telehealth, telemedicine, access to care, medical technology

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Authors: Basma Hussein Abdelaziz Hassan, Kareem Kamel, Philobater Bahgat Adly Awad, Karim Fahmy

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Background: Laparoscopic adjustable gastric band was one of the most applied and common bariatric procedures in the last 8 years. However; the failure rate was very high, reaching approximately 60% of the patients not achieving the desired weight loss. Most patients sought another revisional surgery. In which, we compared two of the most common weight loss surgeries performed nowadays: the laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy and laparoscopic one- anastomosis gastric bypass. Objective: To compare the weight loss and postoperative outcomes among patients undergoing conversion laparoscopic one-anastomosis gastric bypass (cOAGB) and laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (cSG) after a failed laparoscopic adjustable gastric band (LAGB). Patients and Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted from June 2020 to June 2022 at a single medical center, which included 77 patients undergoing single-stage conversion to (cOAGB) vs (cSG). Patients were reassessed for weight loss, comorbidities remission, and post-operative complications at 6, 12, and 18 months. Results: There were 77 patients with failed LAGB in our study. Group (I) was 43 patients who underwent cOAGB and Group (II) was 34 patients who underwent cSG. The mean age of the cOAGB group was 38.58. While in the cSG group, the mean age was 39.47 (p=0.389). Of the 77 patients, 10 (12.99%) were males and 67 (87.01%) were females. Regarding Body mass index (BMI), in the cOAGB group the mean BMI was 41.06 and in the cSG group the mean BMI was 40.5 (p=0.042). The two groups were compared postoperative in relation to EBWL%, BMI, and the co-morbidities remission within 18 months follow-up. The BMI was calculated post-operative at three visits. After 6 months of follow-up, the mean BMI in the cOAGB group was 34.34, and the cSG group was 35.47 (p=0.229). In 12-month follow-up, the mean BMI in the cOAGB group was 32.69 and the cSG group was 33.79 (p=0.2). Finally, the mean BMI after 18 months of follow-up in the cOAGB group was 30.02, and in the cSG group was 31.79 (p=0.001). Both groups had no statistically significant values at 6 and 12 months follow-up with p-values of 0.229, and 0.2 respectively. However, patients who underwent cOAGB after 18 months of follow-up achieved lower BMI than those who underwent cSG with a statistically significant p-value of 0.005. Regarding EBWL% there was a statistically significant difference between the two groups. After 6 months of follow-up, the mean EBWL% in the cOAGB group was 35.9% and the cSG group was 33.14%. In the 12-month follow-up, the EBWL % mean in the cOAGB group was 52.35 and the cSG group was 48.76 (p=0.045). Finally, the mean EBWL % after 18 months of follow-up in the cOAGB group was 62.06 ±8.68 and in the cSG group was 55.58 ±10.87 (p=0.005). Regarding comorbidities remission; Diabetes mellitus remission was found in 22 (88%) patients in the cOAGB group and 10 (71.4%) patients in the cSG group with (p= 0.225). Hypertension remission was found in 20 (80%) patients in the cOAGB group and 14 (82.4%) patients in the cSG group with (p=1). In addition, dyslipidemia remission was found in 27(87%) patients in cOAGB group and 17(70%) patients in the cSG group with (p=0.18). Finally, GERD remission was found in about 15 (88.2%) patients in the cOAGB group and 6 (60%) patients in the cSG group with (p=0.47). There are no statistically significant differences between the two groups in the post-operative data outcomes. Conclusion: This study suggests that the conversion of LAGB to either cOAGB or cSG could be feasibly performed in a single-stage operation. cOAGB had a significant difference as regards the weight loss results than cSG among the mid-term follow-up. However, there is no significant difference in the postoperative complications and the resolution of the co-morbidities. Therefore, cOAGB could provide a reliable alternative but needs to be substantiated in future long-term studies.

Keywords: laparoscopic, gastric banding, one-anastomosis gastric bypass, Sleeve gastrectomy, revisional surgery, weight loss

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Authors: Maya Jaber

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Climate change is one of the biggest challenges that require immediate attention and mitigation for the continued prosperity of human existence. The transformation will need to occur that is top-down and bottom-up on holistic scales. A new way of thinking will need to be adopted that is innovative, human-centric, and global. Designers and researchers are vital leaders in this movement that can help guide other practitioners in the strategy development, critical thinking process, and alignment of transformative solutions. Holistic critical thinking strategies will be essential to change behaviors and cultures for future generations' survival. This paper will discuss these topics associated with Dr. Jaber's research.

Keywords: environmental social governance (ESG), integral design thinking (IDT), organizational transformation, sustainability management

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Authors: Conor Mccartney, Mark Lee

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Background: An essential component in ambulatory breast augmentation surgery is good analgesia. The demographic undergoing this operation is usually fit, low risk with few comorbidities. These patients do not require long-term hospitalization and do not want to spend excessive time in the hospital for financial reasons. Opiate analgesia can have significant side effects such as nausea, vomiting and sedation. Reducing volumes of postoperative opiates allows faster ambulation and discharge from day surgery. We have developed two targeted nerve blocks that can be applied by the operating surgeon in a matter of seconds under direct vision, not requiring imaging. Anecdotally we found that these targeted nerve blocks reduced opiate requirements and allowed accelerated discharge and faster return to normal activities. This was then tested in a prospective randomized, double-blind trial. Methods: 20 patients were randomized into saline (n = 10) or Ropivicaine adrenaline solution (n = 10). The operating surgeon and anesthetist were blinded to the solution. All patients were closely followed up and morphine equivalents were accurately recorded. Follow-up pain scores were recorded using the Overall Benefit of Analgesia pain questionnaire. Findings: The Ropivicaine nerve blocks significantly reduced opiate requirements postoperatively (p<0.05). Pain scores were significantly decreased in the study group (p<0.05). There were no side effects attributable to the nerve blocks. Conclusions: Intraoperative targeted nerve blocks significantly reduce postoperative opiate requirements in breast augmentation surgery. This results in faster recovery and higher patient satisfaction.

Keywords: breast augmentation, nerve block, postoperative recovery, opiate analgesia, inter pectoral block, sub serratus block

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Authors: Ferry Kurniawan

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In this paper, we nowcast quarterly output growth in Indonesia by exploiting higher frequency data (monthly indicators) using a mixed-frequency factor model and exploiting both quarterly and monthly data. Nowcasting quarterly GDP in Indonesia is particularly relevant for the central bank of Indonesia which set the policy rate in the monthly Board of Governors Meeting; whereby one of the important step is the assessment of the current state of the economy. Thus, having an accurate and up-to-date quarterly GDP nowcast every time new monthly information becomes available would clearly be of interest for central bank of Indonesia, for example, as the initial assessment of the current state of the economy -including nowcast- will be used as input for longer term forecast. We consider a small scale mixed-frequency factor model to produce nowcasts. In particular, we specify variables as year-on-year growth rates thus the relation between quarterly and monthly data is expressed in year-on-year growth rates. To assess the performance of the model, we compare the nowcasts with two other approaches: autoregressive model –which is often difficult when forecasting output growth- and Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression. In particular, both mixed frequency factor model and MIDAS nowcasts are produced by exploiting the same set of monthly indicators. Hence, we compare the nowcasts performance of the two approaches directly. To preview the results, we find that by exploiting monthly indicators using mixed-frequency factor model and MIDAS regression we improve the nowcast accuracy over a benchmark simple autoregressive model that uses only quarterly frequency data. However, it is not clear whether the MIDAS or mixed-frequency factor model is better. Neither set of nowcasts encompasses the other; suggesting that both nowcasts are valuable in nowcasting GDP but neither is sufficient. By combining the two individual nowcasts, we find that the nowcast combination not only increases the accuracy - relative to individual nowcasts- but also lowers the risk of the worst performance of the individual nowcasts.

Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model, nowcasts combination

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Authors: Mariette Swanepoel, Terry Ellapen, Henriette Hammil, Juandre Williams, Timothy Qumbu

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The biomechanical consequence of pes planus is a topic seldom reviewed in regards to energy expenditure and predisposition to injury. However its comprehension in the field of foot rehabilitation, pre-and post-surgery is fundamental to successful patient management. This short communication unites the present literature to provide the reader with better insight on the consequence of pes planus, foot mechanics and its predisposition to injury at the foot and tibiofemoral joint. Further, the consideration of synergistic dominance of the foot invertors to compensate for the ineffective torque production of the fibularis longus due pes planus is presented.

Keywords: pes planus, fibularis longus, synergistic dominance, injury

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Authors: Vasishtha Avadhani Upadrasta, Mradul Kumar Daga, Smita Kaushik

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Background: Caffeine consumption has skyrocketed in the recent decades as we try to match pace with the machines. Studies have been conducted on animals and a few on humans, mainly on the acute effects of high-dose caffeine intake. Almost none have been conducted on the chronic effects of caffeine consumption. This study involved Medical professionals as case subjects, who consumed caffeine daily. Methods: This study, over a period of 3 months, involved 96 volunteers (chosen randomly w.r.t. gender and field in medical fraternity), including people who drank >500mg of caffeine a day to people who consumed none. People with any co-morbidities at all were excluded straight away. Two sets of blood samples were drawn and assessed. Three groups were created, Group 1 (>200mg caffeine/day) and Group 2 (15-200 mg caffeine/day) and Group 3 (<200mg Caffeine/day). Results: The result of the study found that exposure to caffeine at doses >200mg/day for more than 6 months leads to a significant difference in circulating free T3 [(-0.96 pmol/L ± 0.07) = (-18.5%), CI 95%, p = .000024] and Cortisol [(-123 nmol/L ± 9.8) = (-46.8%), CI 95%, p = .00029] hormones but shows an insignificant effect on circulating TSH [0.4 mIU/L, CI 95%, p=.37] and ACTH [(-3.2 pg/ml ± 0.3), CI 95%, p = .53) hormones, which stay within normal physiological ranges, irrespective of the daily dose of consumption. Results also highlight that women are more susceptible to decrement in fT3 than men (Relative Risk =1.58, ANOVA F-static = 7.15, p = 0.0105). Conclusions: Caffeine consumption in excess of 200mg/day, for more than or equal to 6 months, causes significant derangement in basal fT3 and Cortisol hormone levels, without affecting the TSH and ACTH (regulatory) hormone levels, indicating disturbance of action at the peripheral and/or cellular levels, possibly via the Paraventricular Nucleus –Leptin-CAR-Adenosine interactions. Women are more susceptible to decrement in fT3 levels than men (at same dose of caffeine).

Keywords: ACTH, adrenals, caffeine, cortisol, thyroid, thyroxin, TSH

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Authors: David Abrahams

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In October 2016 South Africa deposited its ‘instrument of withdrawal’ from the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, with the Secretary-General of the United Nations. The Rome Statute is the founding document of the treaty-based International Criminal Court (ICC). The ICC has jurisdiction to hear cases where crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide have been committed, on the basis of individual criminal responsibility. It is therefore not surprising that one of the ICCs mandates is to ensure that the sufferings, due to gross human rights violations towards the civilian population is, in principle, brought to an end by punishing those individuals responsible, thus providing justice to the victims. The ICC is unable to effectively fulfill its mandate and thus depends, in part on the willingness of states to assist the Court in its functions. This requires states to ratify the Statute and to domesticate its provisions, depending on whether it is a monist or dualist state. South Africa ratified the Statute in November 2000, and domesticated the Statute in 2002 by virtue of the Implementation of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court Act 27 of 2002. South Africa thus remains under an obligation to cooperate with the ICC until the final date of withdrawal, which is October 2017. An AU Summit was hosted by South Africa during June 2015. Omar Al-Bashir, whom the prosecutor of the ICC has indicted on two separate occasions, was invited to the summit. South Africa made an agreement with the AU that it will honour its obligations in terms of its Diplomatic and Immunities Privileges Act of 2001, by granting immunity to all heads of state, including that of Sudan. This decision by South Africa has raised a plethora of questions regarding the status and hierarchy of international laws versus regional laws versus domestic laws. In particular, this paper explores whether a state’s international law treaty obligations may be suspended in favour of, firstly, regional peace (thus safeguarding the security of the civilian population against further atrocities and other gross violations of human rights), and secondly, head of state immunity. This paper also reflects on the effectiveness of the trias politca in South Africa in relation the manner in which South African courts have confirmed South Africa’s failure in fulfilling its obligations in terms of the Rome Statute. A secondary question which will also be explored, is whether the Rome Statute is currently an effective tool in dealing with gross violations of human rights, particularly in a regional African context, given the desire by a number of African states currently party to the Statute, to engage in a mass exodus from the Statute. Finally, the paper concludes with a proposal that there can be no justice for victims of gross human rights violations unless states are serious in playing an instrumental role in bringing an end to impunity in Africa, and that withdrawing from the ICC without an alternative, effective system in place, will simply perpetuate impunity.

Keywords: African Union, diplomatic immunity, impunity, international criminal court, South Africa

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Authors: Juan C. Gutierrez-Estrada, Inmaculada Pulido-Calvo, Ignacio De La Rosa, Antonio Peregrin, Fernando Gomez-Bravo, Samuel Lopez-Dominguez, Alejandro Garrocho-Cruz, Jairo Castro-Gutierrez

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The semi-intensive aquaculture in traditional earth ponds is the main rearing system in Southern Spain. These fish rearing systems are approximately two thirds of aquatic production in this area which has made a significant contribution to the regional economy in recent years. In this type of rearing system, a crucial aspect is the correct quantification and control of the fish abundance in the ponds because the fish farmer knows how many fishes he puts in the ponds but doesn’t know how many fishes will harvest at the end of the rear period. This is a consequence of the mortality induced by different causes as pathogen agents as parasites, viruses and bacteria and other factors as predation of fish-eating birds and poaching. Track the fish abundance in these installations is very difficult because usually the ponds take up a large area of land and the management of the water flow is not automatized. Therefore, there is a very high degree of uncertainty on the abundance fishes which strongly hinders the management and planning of the sales. A novel and non-invasive procedure to count fishes in the ponds is by the means of imaging sonars, particularly fixed systems and/or linked to aquatic vehicles as Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs). In this work, a method based on census stations procedures is proposed to evaluate the fish abundance estimation accuracy using images obtained of multibeam sonars. The results indicate that it is possible to obtain a realistic approach about the number of fishes, sizes and therefore the biomass contained in the ponds. This research is included in the framework of the KTTSeaDrones Project (‘Conocimiento y transferencia de tecnología sobre vehículos aéreos y acuáticos para el desarrollo transfronterizo de ciencias marinas y pesqueras 0622-KTTSEADRONES-5-E’) financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the Interreg V-A Spain-Portugal Programme (POCTEP) 2014-2020.

Keywords: census station procedure, fish biomass, semi-intensive aquaculture, multibeam sonars

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Authors: Carlos Alberto Ríos Reyes, Andrés Felipe Mejía Durán, Oscar Mauricio Castellanos Alarcón

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There is no doubt of great importance to make it known that planet Earth is an entity in constant change and transformation; processes such as construction and destruction are part of the evolution of the territory. Geoeducation workshops represent a significant contribution to the search for educational projects focused on teaching relevant geoscience topics to make natural threats known in schools through recreational and didactic activities. This initiative represents an educational alternative that must be developed with the participation of primary and secondary schools, universities, and local communities. The methodology is based on several phases, which include: diagnosis to know the best teaching method for basic concepts and establish a starting point for the topics to be taught, as well as to identify areas and concepts that need to be reinforced and/or deepened; design of activities that involve all students regardless of their ability or level; use of accessible materials and experimentation to support clear and concise explanations for all students; adaptation of the teaching-learning process to individual needs; sensitization about natural threats; and evaluation and feedback. It is expected to offer a series of activities and materials as a significant contribution to the search for educational projects focused on teaching relevant geoscientific topics such as natural threats associated with earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides, etc. The major findings of this study are the pedagogical strategies that primary and secondary school teachers can appropriate to face the challenge of transferring geological knowledge and to advise decision-makers and citizens on the importance of geosciences for daily life. We conclude that the knowledge of the natural threats to our planet is very important to contribute to mitigating their risk.

Keywords: workshops, geoeducation, curriculum, geosciences, natural threats

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Authors: Iva Hereitova, Miroslav Svatek, Vit Novacek

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Background and Aim: Autonomic imbalance is one of the complications for immobilized patients in the acute stage after a stroke. The predominance of sympathetic activity significantly increases cardiac activity. The technique of glenohumeral joint approximation may contribute in a non-pharmacological way to the regulation of blood pressure and heart rate in patients in this risk group. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effect of glenohumeral joint approximation on the change in heart rate and blood pressure in immobilized patients in the acute phase after a stroke. Methods: The experimental study bilaterally evaluated heart rate, systolic and diastolic pressure values before and after glenohumeral joint approximation in 40 immobilized participants (72.6 ± 10.2 years) in the acute phase after stroke. The experimental group was compared with 40 healthy participants in the control group (68.6 ± 14.2 years). An SpO2 vital signs monitor and a validated Microlife WatchBP Office blood pressure monitor were used for evaluation. Statistical processing and evaluation were performed in MATLAB R2019 (The Math Works®, Inc., Natick, MA, USA). Results: Approximation of the glenohumeral joint resulted in a statistically significant decrease in systolic and diastolic pressure. An average decrease in systolic pressure for individual groups ranged from 8.2 to 11.3 mmHg (p <0.001). For diastolic pressure, the average decrease ranged from 5.0 - 14.2 mmHg (p <0.001). There was a statistically significant reduction in heart rate (p <0.01) only in patients after ischemic stroke in the inferior cerebral artery. There was the average decrease in heart rate of 3.9 beats per minute (median 4 beats per minute). Conclusion: Approximation of the glenohumeral joint leads to a statistically significant decrease in systolic and diastolic pressure in immobilized patients in the acute phase after stroke.

Keywords: Aproximation technique, Cardiovaskular system, Glenohumeral joint, Stroke

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Authors: A. Pietro Rimoldi, B. Anilkumar Gopinath, C. Minimol Korulla

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Coastal engineering structure is conventionally designed for a shorter planning horizon usually 20 years. These structures are subjected to different offshore climatic externalities like waves, tides, tsunamis etc. during the design life period. The probability of occurrence of these different offshore climatic externalities varies. The impact frequently caused by these externalities on the structures is of concern because it has a significant bearing on the capital /operating cost of the project. There can also be repeated short time occurrence of these externalities in the assumed planning horizon which can cause heavy damage to the conventional coastal structure which are mainly made of rock. A replacement of the damaged portion to prevent complete collapse is time consuming and expensive when dealing with hard rock structures. But if coastal structures are made of Geo-synthetic containment systems such replacement is quickly possible in the time period between two successive occurrences. In order to have a better knowledge and to enhance the predictive capacity of these occurrences, this study estimates risk of encounter within the design life period of various externalities based on the concept of exponential distribution. This gives an idea of the frequency of occurrences which in turn gives an indication of whether replacement is necessary and if so at what time interval such replacements have to be effected. To validate this theoretical finding, a pilot project has been taken up in the field so that the impact of the externalities can be studied both for a hard rock and a Geosynthetic tube structure. The paper brings out the salient feature of a case study which pertains to a project in which Geosynthetic tubes have been used for reformation of a seawall adjacent to a conventional rock structure in Alappuzha coast, Kerala, India. The effectiveness of the Geosystem in combatting the impact of the short-term externalities has been brought out.

Keywords: climatic externalities, exponential distribution, geosystems, planning horizon

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Authors: Shalu Jain, Anju Bansal, Anup Kumar, Sunita Saxena

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Objectives: The novel TMPRSS2:ERG gene fusion is a common somatic event in prostate cancer that in some studies is linked with a more aggressive disease phenotype. Thus, this study aims to determine whether clinical variables are associated with the presence of TMPRSS2:ERG-fusion gene transcript in Indian patients of prostate cancer. Methods: We evaluated the clinical variables with presence and absence of TMPRSS2:ERG gene fusion in prostate cancer and BPH association of clinical patients. Patients referred for prostate biopsy because of abnormal DRE or/and elevated sPSA were enrolled for this prospective clinical study. TMPRSS2:ERG mRNA copies in samples were quantified using a Taqman chemistry by real time PCR assay in prostate biopsy samples (N=42). The T2:ERG assay detects the gene fusion mRNA isoform TMPRSS2 exon1 to ERG exon4. Results: Histopathology report has confirmed 25 cases as prostate cancer adenocarcinoma (PCa) and 17 patients as benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH). Out of 25 PCa cases, 16 (64%) were T2: ERG fusion positive. All 17 BPH controls were fusion negative. The T2:ERG fusion transcript was exclusively specific for prostate cancer as no case of BPH was detected having T2:ERG fusion, showing 100% specificity. The positive predictive value of fusion marker for prostate cancer is thus 100% and the negative predictive value is 65.3%. The T2:ERG fusion marker is significantly associated with clinical variables like no. of positive cores in prostate biopsy, Gleason score, serum PSA, perineural invasion, perivascular invasion and periprostatic fat involvement. Conclusions: Prostate cancer is a heterogeneous disease that may be defined by molecular subtypes such as the TMPRSS2:ERG fusion. In the present prospective study, the T2:ERG quantitative assay demonstrated high specificity for predicting biopsy outcome; sensitivity was similar to the prevalence of T2:ERG gene fusions in prostate tumors. These data suggest that further improvement in diagnostic accuracy could be achieved using a nomogram that combines T2:ERG with other markers and risk factors for prostate cancer.

Keywords: prostate cancer, genetic rearrangement, TMPRSS2:ERG fusion, clinical variables

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Authors: Mohammad Hossein Badamchi

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In Iran as well as other developing countries instituting innovation and entrepreneurship ecosystems by government around the universities is the new imported fashion of modernization and development in the 21st century. In recent decade various statesmen, policy makers, university administrations, economists and development theorists are emphasizing excitingly about the new “start-ups” which are going to solve all economic problems and backwardness of the country. However, critical study of modernization practices in Iran implies that this new trend is suffering from conventional deficiency of modernization planning in 20th century. This article is going to depict the misunderstandings of a situation which we can name “Pseudo-innovation in a closed society” by presenting these 12 paradoxes of this new system, actually happening in Iran: (1) Innovation without freedom? Fiction of innovation in a patriarchal state (2) Entrepreneurship without free market? Fiction of entrepreneurship in a rentier-state. (3) Ecosystem or a state-glasshouse? Is it possible to make and plan an innovation? (4) Innovation; epistemic or practical? How academic innovation could happen abstractly out of context? (5) Risk and Lucre: innovation to protect power and property?! (6) Silicon-valley mirage: what is in common between American-Iranian polity? (7) Information or Communication? ICT startups to restrict the internet (8) The elite paradox: new proletariat of private sector, new governmental clerk or a new path of brain drain? (9) Innovation or commercialization? Revisiting Schumpeterian creative destruction (10) The friendship of Jungle and fire: paradox of public science and market (11) Innovation and revolution: top-down or bottom-up paradox in an Iranian experience (12) Technology instead of civil society: ultimate result of innovation in a closed society. Through explaining these paradoxes we can gradually penetrate the real rationality of Pseudo-innovation ecosystem in a closed society, which can be understood as new-Neopatriarchy reconstruction of traditional patriarchal politics, economy and culture in Iran.

Keywords: innovation, critical sociology, modernisation, Iran, closed society

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