Search results for: clinical prediction score
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7238

Search results for: clinical prediction score

6428 The Surgical Trainee Perception of the Operating Room Educational Environment

Authors: Neal Rupani

Abstract:

Background: A surgical trainee has limited learning opportunities in the operating room in order to gain an ever-increasing standard of surgical skill, competency, and proficiency. These opportunities continue to decline due to numerous factors such as the European Working Time Directive and increasing requirement for service provision. It is therefore imperative to obtain the highest educational value from each educational opportunity. A measure that has yet to be validated in England on surgical trainees called the Operating Room Educational Environment Measure (OREEM) has been developed to identify and evaluate each component of the educational environment with a view to steer future change in optimising educational events in theatre. Aims: The aims of the study are to assess the reliability of the OREEM within England and to evaluate the surgical trainee’s objective perspective of the current operating room educational environment within one region within England. Methods: Using a quantitative study approach, data was collected over one month from surgical trainees within Health Education Thames Valley (Oxford) using an online questionnaire consisting of demographic data, the OREEM, a global satisfaction score. Results: 140 surgical trainees were invited to the study, with an online response of 54 participants (response rate = 38.6%). The OREEM was shown to have good internal consistency (α = 0.906, variables = 40) and unidimensionality, along with all four of its subgroups. The mean OREEM score was 79.16%. The areas highlighted for improvement predominantly focused on improving learning opportunities (average subscale score = 72.9%) and conducting pre- and post-operative teaching (average score = 70.4%). The trainee perception is most satisfactory for the level of supervision and workload (average subscale score = 82.87%). There was no differences found between gender (U = 191.5, p = 0.535) or type of hospital (U = 258.0, p = 0.099), but the learning environment was favoured towards senior trainees (U = 223.5, p = 0.017). There was strong correlation between OREEM and the global satisfaction score (r = 0.755, p<0.001). Conclusions: The OREEM was shown to be reliable in measuring the educational environment in the operating room. This can be used to identify potentially modifiable components for improvement and as an audit tool to ensure high standards are being met. The current perception of the education environment in Health Education Thames Valley is satisfactory, and modifiable internal and external factors such as reducing service provision requirements, empowering trainees to plan lists, creating a team-working ethic between all personnel, and using tools that maximise learning from each operation have been identified to improve learning in the future. There is a favourable attitude to use of such improvement tools, especially for those currently dissatisfied.

Keywords: education environment, surgery, post-graduate education, OREEM

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6427 Effect of Clinical Parameters on Strength of Reattached Tooth Fragment in Anterior Teeth: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Authors: Neeraj Malhotra, Ramya Shenoy

Abstract:

Objective: To assess the effect of clinical parameters (bonding agent, preparation design & storage media) on the strength of reattached anterior tooth fragment. Methodology: This is a systematic review and meta-analysis for articles referred from MEDLINE, PUBMED, and GOOGLE SCHOLAR. The articles on tooth reattachment and clinical factors affecting fracture strength/bond strength/fracture resistance of the reattached tooth fragment in anterior teeth and published in English from 1999 to 2016 were included for final review. Results: Out of 120 shortlisted articles, 28 articles were included for the systematic review and meta-analysis based on 3 clinical parameters i.e. bonding agent, tooth preparation design & storage media. Forest plot & funnel plots were generated based on individual clinical parameter and their effect on strength of reattached anterior tooth fragment. Results based on analysis suggest combination of both conclusive evidence favoring the experimental group as well as in-conclusive evidence for individual parameter. Conclusion: There is limited evidence as there are fewer articles supporting each parameter in human teeth. Bonding agent had showed better outcome in selected studies.

Keywords: bonding agent, bond strength, fracture strength, preparation design, reattachment, storage media

Procedia PDF Downloads 171
6426 Medical Ethics: Knowledge, Attitude and Practices among Young Healthcare Professionals – A Survey from Islamabad, Pakistan

Authors: Asima Mehaboob Khan, Rizwan Taj

Abstract:

Purpose: This study aims to estimate the knowledge, attitude and practices of medical ethics among young healthcare professionals. Method: A qualitative descriptive study was conducted among young healthcare professionals from both public and private sector medical institutions. Using the convenience sampling technique, 272 healthcare professionals participated in this study. A pre-structured modified questionnaire was used to collect the data. Descriptive analyses were executed for each variable. Result: About 76.47% of healthcare professional considers the importance of adequate knowledge of medical ethics, and 82.24% declared lecture, seminars and clinical discussion as the source of their medical knowledge of biomedical ethics. About 42.44% of healthcare professionals exhibited a negative attitude toward medical ethics, 57.72% showed a mildly positive attitude, whereas 1.10% and 0.74% indicated a moderately positive attitude and a highly positive attitude towards medical ethics. Similarly, the level of practice according to medical ethics is also very poor among young healthcare professionals. 34.56% of healthcare professionals deviated from medical ethics during their clinical practices, whereas 0.74% showed a good level of medical practice according to medical ethics. Conclusion: It is concluded in this research study that young healthcare professionals have adequate theoretical knowledge of medical ethics but are not properly trained to perform their clinical practices according to the guidelines of medical ethics. Furthermore, their professional attitude is poorly developed to maintain medical ethics during their clinical practices.

Keywords: knowledge, attitude, practices, medical ethics

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6425 Peculiarities of the Clinical Course of the Osteoarthritis in Shift-Workers: Analysis of Clinical Data and Questionnaries

Authors: Oksana Mykytyuk

Abstract:

Chronic desynchronosis is an important factor of progression of osteoarthritis in shift workers. 80 patients with primary osteoarthritis (female:male ratio = 3:1, average age: 57.6 years, average disease duration: 6.4 years, radiological stage: II-III) were examined, 42% reported systematic night shift-work for more than two years. Full clinical examination was performed, all patients filled in SF-36, WOMAC questonnaries, marked visual analog scales for estimation of pain intensity and general well-being. Patients who had been exposed to night work had significantly worse clinical course of osteoarthritis marked by more (27.5%, p < 0.05) extensive pain syndrome, especially at night hours, (10.00 pm-2.00 am period) and estimated life quality as poorer comparing those working at day time. Osteoarthritis initiation occurred at earlier age in them comparing those who worked in non-shifted regimen. They showed a trend to generalized affliction of bigger quantity of joint groups, higher frequency of synovitis as well. Shift-workers administered higher doses of non-steroid anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and estimated their effect as lower (39.6% average daily relief vs 62.5% in non-shift workers after 10 days of regular application of therapy). Frequency of chronic NSAID-induced gastropathy was 25% higher among night-workers. Shift-workers are predisposed to worse course of osteoarthritis with marked clinical symptoms, requiring higher doses on NSAIDs and with inclination towards bigger frequency of complication. That should be kept in mind while developing individual treatment and secondary prophylaxis strategy.

Keywords: desynchronosis, osteoarthritis, questionnaries, shift-work

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6424 The Application of Data Mining Technology in Building Energy Consumption Data Analysis

Authors: Liang Zhao, Jili Zhang, Chongquan Zhong

Abstract:

Energy consumption data, in particular those involving public buildings, are impacted by many factors: the building structure, climate/environmental parameters, construction, system operating condition, and user behavior patterns. Traditional methods for data analysis are insufficient. This paper delves into the data mining technology to determine its application in the analysis of building energy consumption data including energy consumption prediction, fault diagnosis, and optimal operation. Recent literature are reviewed and summarized, the problems faced by data mining technology in the area of energy consumption data analysis are enumerated, and research points for future studies are given.

Keywords: data mining, data analysis, prediction, optimization, building operational performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 847
6423 Woodcast is Ecologically Sound and Tolerated by a Majority of Patients

Authors: R. Hassan, J. Duncombe, E. Darke, A. Dias, K. Anderson, R. G. Middleton

Abstract:

NHS England has set itself the task of delivering a “Net Zero” National Health service by 2040. It is incumbent upon all health care practioners to work towards this goal. Orthopaedic surgeons are no exception. Distal radial fractures are the most common fractures sustained by the adult population. However, studies are shortcoming on individual patient experience. The aim of this study was to assess the patient’s satisfaction and outcomes with woodcast used in the conservative management of distal radius fractures. For all patients managed with woodcast in our unit, we undertook a structured questionnaire that included the Patient Rated Wrist Evaluation (PRWE) score, The EQ-5D-5L score and the pain numerical score at the time of injury and six weeks after. 30 patients were initially managed with woodcast. 80% of patients tolerated woodcast for the full duration of their treatment. Of these, 20% didn’t tolerate woodcast and had their casts removed within 48 hours. Of the remaining, 79.1% were satisfied about woodcast comfort, 66% were very satisfied about woodcast weight, 70% were satisfied with temperature and sweatiness, 62.5% were very satisfied about the smell/odour, and 75% were satisfied about the level of support woodcast provided. During their treatment, 83.3% of patients rated their pain as five or less. For those who completed their treatment in woodcast, none required any further intervention or utilised the open appointment because of ongoing wrist problems. In conclusion, when woodcast is tolerated, patients’ satisfaction and outcome levels were good. However, we acknowledged 20% of patients in our series were not able to tolerate woodacst, Therefore, we suggest a comparison between the widely used synthetic plaster of Paris casting and woodcast to come in order.

Keywords: distal radius fractures, ecological cast, sustainability, woodcast

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6422 An Implementation of Fuzzy Logic Technique for Prediction of the Power Transformer Faults

Authors: Omar M. Elmabrouk., Roaa Y. Taha., Najat M. Ebrahim, Sabbreen A. Mohammed

Abstract:

Power transformers are the most crucial part of power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. This part is maintained using predictive or condition-based maintenance approach. The diagnosis of power transformer condition is performed based on Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA). There are five main methods utilized for analyzing these gases. These methods are International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) gas ratio, Key Gas, Roger gas ratio, Doernenburg, and Duval Triangle. Moreover, due to the importance of the transformers, there is a need for an accurate technique to diagnose and hence predict the transformer condition. The main objective of this technique is to avoid the transformer faults and hence to maintain the power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. In this paper, the DGA was utilized based on the data collected from the transformer records available in the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) which is located in Benghazi-Libya. The Fuzzy Logic (FL) technique was implemented as a diagnostic approach based on IEC gas ratio method. The FL technique gave better results and approved to be used as an accurate prediction technique for power transformer faults. Also, this technique is approved to be a quite interesting for the readers and the concern researchers in the area of FL mathematics and power transformer.

Keywords: dissolved gas-in-oil analysis, fuzzy logic, power transformer, prediction

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6421 Protective Effect of Cinnamomum zeylanicum Bark Extract against Doxorubicin Induced Cardiotoxicity: A Preliminary Study

Authors: J. A. N. Sandamali, R. P. Hewawasam, K. A. P. W. Jayatilaka, L. K. B. Mudduwa

Abstract:

Introduction: Doxorubicin is widely used in the treatment of solid organ tumors and hematological malignancies, but the dose-dependent cardiotoxicity due to free radical formation compromises its clinical utility. Therapeutic strategies which enhance cellular endogenous defense systems have been identified as promising approaches to combat oxidative stress-associated conditions. Cinnamomum zeylanicum (Ceylon cinnamon) has a number antioxidant compounds, which can effectively scavenge reactive oxygen including superoxide anions, hydroxyl radicals and as well as other free radicals. Therefore, the objective of the study was to elucidate the most effective dose of Cinnamomum bark extract which ameliorates doxorubicin-induced cardiotoxicity. Materials and methods: Wistar rats were divided into seven groups of 10 animals in each. Group 1: normal control (distilled water, orally, for 14 days, 10 mL/kg saline, ip, after 16 hours fast on the 11th day); Group 2: doxorubicin control (distilled water, orally, for 14 days, 18 mg/kg doxorubicin, ip, after 16 hour fast on the 11th day); Groups 3-7: five doses of freeze dried aqueous bark extracts (0.125, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0g/kg, orally, daily for 14 days, 18 mg/kg doxorubicin, ip, after 16 hours fast on the 11th day). Animals were sacrificed on the 15th day and blood was collected for the estimation of cardiac troponin I (cTnI), AST and LDH concentrations and myocardial tissues were collected for histopathological assessment of myocardial damage and irreversible changes were graded by developing a score. Results: cTnI concentration of groups 1-7 were 0, 161.9, 128.6, 95.9, 38, 19.41 & 12.36 pg/mL showing significant differences (p<0.05) between group 2 and groups 4-7. In groups 1-7, serum AST concentration were 26.82, 68.1, 37.18, 36.23, 26.8, 26.62 & 22.43U/L and LDH concentrations were 1166.13, 2428.84, 1658.35, 1474.34, 1277.58, 1110.21 & 974.40U/L and a significant difference (p<0.05) was observed between group 2 and groups 3-7. The maximum score for myocardial necrosis was observed in group 2. Parallel to the increase of the dosage of plant extract, a gradual reduction of the score for myocardial necrosis was observed in groups 3-7. Reversible histological changes such as vacuolation, congestion were observed in group 2 and all plant treated groups. Haemorrhages, inflammatory cell infiltrations, and interstitial oedema were observed in group 2, but absent in groups treated with higher doses of the plant extract. Discussion & Conclusion: According to the in vitro antioxidant assays performed, Cinnamomum zeylanicum (Ceylon cinnamon) bark possesses high amounts of polyphenolic substances and high antioxidant activity. The present study showed that Cinnamomum zeylanicum extract at 2.0 g/kg possesses the most significant cardioprotective effect against doxorubicin-induced cardiotoxicity. It can be postulated that pretreatment with Cinnamomum bark extract may replenish the cardiomyocytes with antioxidants that are needed for the defense against oxidative stress induced by doxorubicin.

Keywords: cardioprotection, Cinnamomum zeylanicum, doxorubicin, free radicals

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6420 Customers' Attitudes towards Marketing Mix Affecting Purchasing Behavior of Starbucks Coffee (Thailand) Customers in Bangkok

Authors: Polamorn Tamprateep, Warapong Thakanun

Abstract:

This researchs' objectives are: 1. To study the customer demographics that affects the purchasing behavior; 2. To study the marketing mix that affects the purchasing behavior; 3. To study the relationship between purchasing behavior and customers’ perception of Brand Equity. Population of this research is Starbucks Coffee (Thailand) customers in Bangkok. The tool used in this study was questionnaire created from concepts, theories and related researches. The study showed that, of 400 respondents, overall opinion received high score (xˉ= 3.77). When each item is considered, it was found that ‘Staff are knowledgeable in providing service.’, ‘ Staff are friendly.’, ‘Staff possess good communication skill with customers.’, ‘Staff know all types of coffee well.’, and ‘Staff are enthusiastic in giving service.’, all these items received high score with a mean of 3.92, 3.87, 3.77, 3.71 and 3.63, respectively.

Keywords: mix attitude of the product, consumer, buying behavior, Starbucks

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6419 Prediction of Marine Ecosystem Changes Based on the Integrated Analysis of Multivariate Data Sets

Authors: Prozorkevitch D., Mishurov A., Sokolov K., Karsakov L., Pestrikova L.

Abstract:

The current body of knowledge about the marine environment and the dynamics of marine ecosystems includes a huge amount of heterogeneous data collected over decades. It generally includes a wide range of hydrological, biological and fishery data. Marine researchers collect these data and analyze how and why the ecosystem changes from past to present. Based on these historical records and linkages between the processes it is possible to predict future changes. Multivariate analysis of trends and their interconnection in the marine ecosystem may be used as an instrument for predicting further ecosystem evolution. A wide range of information about the components of the marine ecosystem for more than 50 years needs to be used to investigate how these arrays can help to predict the future.

Keywords: barents sea ecosystem, abiotic, biotic, data sets, trends, prediction

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6418 Red-Tide Detection and Prediction Using MODIS Data in the Arabian Gulf of Qatar

Authors: Yasir E. Mohieldeen

Abstract:

Qatar is one of the most water scarce countries in the World. In 2014, the average per capita rainfall was less than 29 m3/y/ca, while the global average is 6,000 m3/y/ca. However, the per capita water consumption in Qatar is among the highest in the World: more than 500 liters per person per day, whereas the global average is 160 liters per person per day. Since the early 2000s, Qatar has been relying heavily on desalinated water from the Arabian Gulf as the main source of fresh water. In 2009, about 99.9% of the total potable water produced was desalinated. Reliance on desalinated water makes Qatar very vulnerable to water related natural disasters, such as the red-tide phenomenon. Qatar’s strategic water reserve lasts for only 7 days. In case of red-tide outbreak, the country would not be able to desalinate water for days, let alone the months that this disaster would bring about (as it clogs the desalination equipment). The 2008-09 red-tide outbreak, for instance, lasted for more than eight months and forced the closure of desalination plants in the region for weeks. This study aims at identifying favorite conditions for red-tide outbreaks, using satellite data along with in-situ measurements. This identification would allow the prediction of these outbreaks and their hotspots. Prediction and monitoring of outbreaks are crucial to water security in the country, as different measures could be put in place in advance to prevent an outbreak and mitigate its impact if it happened. Red-tide outbreaks are detected using different algorithms for chlorophyll concentration in the Gulf waters. Vegetation indices, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were used along with Surface Algae Bloom Index (SABI) to detect known outbreaks. MODIS (or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) bands are used to calculate these indices. A red-tide outbreaks atlas in the Arabian Gulf is being produced. Prediction of red-tide outbreaks ahead of their occurrences would give critical information on possible water-shortage in the country. Detecting known outbreaks in the past few decades and related parameters (e.g. water salinity, water surface temperature, nutrition, sandstorms, … etc) enables the identification of favorite conditions of red-tide outbreak that are key to the prediction of these outbreaks.

Keywords: Arabian Gulf, MODIS, red-tide detection, strategic water reserve, water desalination

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6417 Clinicopathological Findings of Partuberclosis in Camels: Possible Steps for Control Strategy

Authors: A. M. Almujalli, G. M. Al-Ghamdi

Abstract:

Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis causes paratuberculosis, a chronic debilitating granulomatous enteritis, in camels as well as domestic and wild ruminants. The clinical manifestation of the disease in camel is not well characterized, therefore this study was aimed to investigate the clinical and pathological pictures of camels that are suffering from partuberculosis. Twelve young camels that were presented to the Veterinary Teaching Hospital, King Faisal University were investigated. Clinical and pathological examination were performed. The results revealed highly significant increase in creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, magnesium, AST and ALT in diseased camels, while glucose, total protein and albumin were highly significantly decreased in diseased camels when compared to healthy ones. Post-mortem testing indicated thickening, corrugation of the intestinal wall, folded mucosa, enlarged and oedemated ileocaecal and mesenteric lymph nodes. The microscopic findings detected short, blunt and distorted intestinal villi with hyperactive goblet cells of the villi and the crypts of lieberkuhn contained mucin droplets. The lamina propria was heavily infiltrated with mononuclear cells mostly macrophages. This clinical picture of paratuberculosis may be used to initiate control strategy to limit the spread of the disease in camel herds.

Keywords: camel, partuberclosis, control, Saudi Arabia

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6416 Prediction of Incompatibility Between Excipients and API in Gliclazide Tablets Using Infrared Spectroscopy and Principle Component Analysis

Authors: Farzad Khajavi

Abstract:

Recognition of the interaction between active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) and excipients is a pivotal factor in the development of all pharmaceutical dosage forms. By predicting the interaction between API and excipients, we will be able to prevent the advent of impurities or at least lessen their amount. In this study, we used principle component analysis (PCA) to predict the interaction between Gliclazide as a secondary amine with Lactose in pharmaceutical solid dosage forms. The infrared spectra of binary mixtures of Gliclazide with Lactose at different mole ratios were recorded, and the obtained matrix was analyzed with PCA. By plotting score columns of the analyzed matrix, the incompatibility between Gliclazide and Lactose was observed. This incompatibility was seen experimentally. We observed the appearance of the impurity originated from the Maillard reaction between Gliclazide and Lactose at the chromatogram of the manufactured tablets in room temperature and under accelerated stability conditions. This impurity increases at the stability months. By changing Lactose to Mannitol and using Calcium Dibasic Phosphate in the tablet formulation, the amount of the impurity decreased and was in the acceptance range defined by British pharmacopeia for Gliclazide Tablets. This method is a fast and simple way to predict the existence of incompatibility between excipients and active pharmaceutical ingredients.

Keywords: PCA, gliclazide, impurity, infrared spectroscopy, interaction

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6415 Studies on the Applicability of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in Prediction of Thermodynamic Behavior of Sodium Chloride Aqueous System Containing a Non-Electrolytes

Authors: Dariush Jafari, S. Mostafa Nowee

Abstract:

In this study a ternary system containing sodium chloride as solute, water as primary solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent was considered to investigate the application of artificial neural network (ANN) in prediction of sodium solubility in the mixture of water as the solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent. The system was previously studied using by Extended UNIQUAC model by the authors of this study. The comparison between the results of the two models shows an excellent agreement between them (R2=0.99), and also approves the capability of ANN to predict the thermodynamic behavior of ternary electrolyte systems which are difficult to model.

Keywords: thermodynamic modeling, ANN, solubility, ternary electrolyte system

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6414 Electrical Machine Winding Temperature Estimation Using Stateful Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM) and Truncated Backpropagation Through Time (TBPTT)

Authors: Yujiang Wu

Abstract:

As electrical machine (e-machine) power density re-querulents become more stringent in vehicle electrification, mounting a temperature sensor for e-machine stator windings becomes increasingly difficult. This can lead to higher manufacturing costs, complicated harnesses, and reduced reliability. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method for predicting electric machine winding temperature, which can either replace the sensor entirely or serve as a backup to the existing sensor. We compare the performance of our method, the stateful long short-term memory networks (LSTM) with truncated backpropagation through time (TBTT), with that of linear regression, as well as stateless LSTM with/without residual connection. Our results demonstrate the strength of combining stateful LSTM and TBTT in tackling nonlinear time series prediction problems with long sequence lengths. Additionally, in industrial applications, high-temperature region prediction accuracy is more important because winding temperature sensing is typically used for derating machine power when the temperature is high. To evaluate the performance of our algorithm, we developed a temperature-stratified MSE. We propose a simple but effective data preprocessing trick to improve the high-temperature region prediction accuracy. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in accurately predicting winding temperature, particularly in high-temperature regions, while also reducing manufacturing costs and improving reliability.

Keywords: deep learning, electrical machine, functional safety, long short-term memory networks (LSTM), thermal management, time series prediction

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6413 Effect of Rehabilitative Nursing Program on Pain Intensity and Functional Status among Patients with Discectomy

Authors: Amal Shehata

Abstract:

Low back pain related to disc prolapse is localized in the lumbar area and it may be radiated to the lower extremities, starting from neurons near or around the spinal canal. Most of the population may be affected with disc prolapse within their lifetime and leads to lost productivity, disability and loss of function. The study purpose was to examine the effect of rehabilitative nursing program on pain intensity and functional status among patients with discectomy. Design: Aquasi experimental design was utilized. Setting: The study was carried out at neurosurgery department and out patient's clinic of Menoufia University and Teaching hospitals at Menoufia governorate, Egypt. Instrument of the study: Five Instruments were used for data collection: Structured interviewing questionnaire, Functional assessment instrument, Observational check list, Numeric rating Scale and Oswestry low back pain disability questionnaire. Results: There was an improvement in mean total knowledge score about disease process, discectomy and rehabilitation program in study group (25.32%) than control group (7.32%). There was highly statistically significant improvement in lumbar flexibility among study group (80%) than control group (30%) after rehabilitation program than before. Also there was a decrease in pain score in study group (58% no pain) than control group (28% no pain) after rehabilitation program. There was an improvement in total disability score of study group (zero %) regarding effect of pain on the activity of daily living after rehabilitation program than control group (16%). Conclusion: Application of rehabilitative nursing program for patient with discectomy had proven a positive effect in relation to knowledge score, pain reduction, activity of daily living and functional abilities. Recommendation: A continuous rehabilitative nursing program should be carried out for all patients immediately after discectomy surgery on regular basis. Also A colored illustrated booklet about rehabilitation program should be available and distributed for all patients before surgery.

Keywords: discectomy, rehabilitative nursing program, pain intensity, functional status

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6412 Novel GPU Approach in Predicting the Directional Trend of the S&P500

Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

Abstract:

Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

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6411 Reflective Portfolio to Bridge the Gap in Clinical Training

Authors: Keenoo Bibi Sumera, Alsheikh Mona, Mubarak Jan Beebee Zeba Mahetaab

Abstract:

Background: Due to the busy schedule of the practicing clinicians at the hospitals, students may not always be attended to, which is to their detriment. The clinicians at the hospitals are also not always acquainted with teaching and/or supervising students on their placements. Additionally, there is a high student-patient ratio. Since they are the prospective clinical doctors under training, they need to reach the competence levels in clinical decision-making skills to be able to serve the healthcare system of the country and to be safe doctors. Aims and Objectives: A reflective portfolio was used to provide a means for students to learn by reflecting on their experiences and obtaining continuous feedback. This practice is an attempt to compensate for the scarcity of lack of resources, that is, clinical placement supervisors and patients. It is also anticipated that it will provide learners with a continuous monitoring and learning gap analysis tool for their clinical skills. Methodology: A hardcopy reflective portfolio was designed and validated. The portfolio incorporated a mini clinical evaluation exercise (mini-CEX), direct observation of procedural skills and reflection sections. Workshops were organized for the stakeholders, that is the management, faculty and students, separately. The rationale of reflection was emphasized. Students were given samples of reflective writing. The portfolio was then implemented amongst the undergraduate medical students of years four, five and six during clinical clerkship. After 16 weeks of implementation of the portfolio, a survey questionnaire was introduced to explore how undergraduate students perceive the educational value of the reflective portfolio and its impact on their deep information processing. Results: The majority of the respondents are in MD Year 5. Out of 52 respondents, 57.7% were doing the internal medicine clinical placement rotation, and 42.3% were in Otorhinolaryngology clinical placement rotation. The respondents believe that the implementation of a reflective portfolio helped them identify their weaknesses, gain professional development in terms of helping them to identify areas where the knowledge is good, increase the learning value if it is used as a formative assessment, try to relate to different courses and in improving their professional skills. However, it is not necessary that the portfolio will improve the self-esteem of respondents or help in developing their critical thinking, The portfolio takes time to complete, and the supervisors are not useful. They had to chase supervisors for feedback. 53.8% of the respondents followed the Gibbs reflective model to write the reflection, whilst the others did not follow any guidelines to write the reflection 48.1% said that the feedback was helpful, 17.3% preferred the use of written feedback, whilst 11.5% preferred oral feedback. Most of them suggested more frequent feedback. 59.6% of respondents found the current portfolio user-friendly, and 28.8% thought it was too bulky. 27.5% have mentioned that for a mobile application. Conclusion: The reflective portfolio, through the reflection of their work and regular feedback from supervisors, has an overall positive impact on the learning process of undergraduate medical students during their clinical clerkship.

Keywords: Portfolio, Reflection, Feedback, Clinical Placement, Undergraduate Medical Education

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6410 Data and Biological Sharing Platforms in Community Health Programs: Partnership with Rural Clinical School, University of New South Wales and Public Health Foundation of India

Authors: Vivian Isaac, A. T. Joteeshwaran, Craig McLachlan

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The University of New South Wales (UNSW) Rural Clinical School has a strategic collaborative focus on chronic disease and public health. Our objectives are to understand rural environmental and biological interactions in vulnerable community populations. The UNSW Rural Clinical School translational model is a spoke and hub network. This spoke and hub model connects rural data and biological specimens with city based collaborative public health research networks. Similar spoke and hub models are prevalent across research centers in India. The Australia-India Council grant was awarded so we could establish sustainable public health and community research collaborations. As part of the collaborative network we are developing strategies around data and biological sharing platforms between Indian Institute of Public Health, Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), Hyderabad and Rural Clinical School UNSW. The key objective is to understand how research collaborations are conducted in India and also how data can shared and tracked with external collaborators such as ourselves. A framework to improve data sharing for research collaborations, including DNA was proposed as a project outcome. The complexities of sharing biological data has been investigated via a visit to India. A flagship sustainable project between Rural Clinical School UNSW and PHFI would illustrate a model of data sharing platforms.

Keywords: data sharing, collaboration, public health research, chronic disease

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6409 A Study on the Life Prediction Performance Degradation Analysis of the Hydraulic Breaker

Authors: Jong Won, Park, Sung Hyun, Kim

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The kinetic energy to pass subjected to shock and chisel reciprocating piston hydraulic power supplied by the excavator using for the purpose of crushing the rock, and roads, buildings, etc., hydraulic breakers blow. Impact frequency, efficiency measurement of the impact energy, hydraulic breakers, to demonstrate the ability of hydraulic breaker manufacturers and users to a very important item. And difficult in order to confirm the initial performance degradation in the life of the hydraulic breaker has been thought to be a problem.In this study, we measure the efficiency of hydraulic breaker, Impact energy and Impact frequency, the degradation analysis of research to predict the life.

Keywords: impact energy, impact frequency, hydraulic breaker, life prediction

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6408 Botulism Clinical Experience and Update

Authors: Kevin Yeo, Christine Hall, Babinchak Tim

Abstract:

BAT® [Botulism Antitoxin Heptavalent (A,B,C,D,E,F,G)-(Equine)] anti-toxin is a mixture of equine immune globulin fragments indicated for the treatment of symptomatic botulism in adult and pediatric patients. The effectiveness of BAT anti-toxin is based on efficacy studies conducted in animal models. A general explanation of the pivotal animal studies, post market surveillance and outcomes of an observational patient registry for patients treated with BAT product distributed in the USA is briefly discussed. Overall it took 20 animal studies for two well-designed and appropriately powered pivotal efficacy studies – one in which the effectiveness of BAT was assessed against all 7 serotypes in the guinea pig, and the other where efficacy is confirmed in the Rhesus macaque using Serotype A. Clinical Experience for BAT to date involves approximately 600 adult and pediatric patients with suspected botulism. In pre-licensure, patient data was recorded under the US CDC expanded access program (259 adult and pediatric patients between 10 days to 88 years of age). In post licensure, greater than 350 patients to date have received BAT and been followed up by enhanced expanded access program. The analysis of the post market surveillance data provided a unique opportunity to demonstrate clinical benefit in the field study required by the animal rule. While the animal rule is applied because human efficacy studies are not ethical or feasible, a post-marketing requirement is to conduct a study to evaluate safety and clinical benefit when circumstances arise and demonstrate the favourable benefit-risk profile that supported licensure.

Keywords: botulism, threat, clinical benefit, observational patient registry

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6407 Phytochemical Screening and Antibacterial Activities of Tapinanthus dodoneifolius Leaves Extracts against Some Selected Clinical Isolates

Authors: Isa Usman Balan, Umar Aliyu, Ahmad Tijjani Muhammed

Abstract:

The laboratory scale experiment was conducted to determine the phytochemical constituents and antibacterial activities of epiphytic neem leaves (Tapinanthusdodoneifolius) extracts on some selected clinical isolates. The samples were collected using polythene bags to avoid unnecessary contamination of the plants, and they were collected from the old site garden of the BUK. The phytochemical screening and antibacterial test were carried out in the Chemistry and Biology laboratory, respectively at Bayero University Kano (BUK). The result obtained showed that carbohydrates, glycosides, steroids, alkaloids, phenol, saponins and flavonoids are present in the ethanolic extract. However, chloroform extract showed only glycosides, phenols, and carbohydrates. Furthermore, there was no significant difference between the ethanolic extracts and bacterial isolates (p<0.05).

Keywords: phytochemical screening, antibacterial, clinical isolates, epiphytic neem leaves, Tapinanthus dodoneifolius

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6406 A Regression Model for Residual-State Creep Failure

Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Ryuichi Yatabe

Abstract:

In this study, a residual-state creep failure model was developed based on the residual-state creep test results of clayey soils. To develop the proposed model, the regression analyses were done by using the R. The model results of the failure time (tf) and critical displacement (δc) were compared with experimental results and found in close agreements to each others. It is expected that the proposed regression model for residual-state creep failure will be more useful for the prediction of displacement of different clayey soils in the future.

Keywords: regression model, residual-state creep failure, displacement prediction, clayey soils

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6405 Design and Development of an Algorithm to Predict Fluctuations of Currency Rates

Authors: Nuwan Kuruwitaarachchi, M. K. M. Peiris, C. N. Madawala, K. M. A. R. Perera, V. U. N Perera

Abstract:

Dealing with businesses with the foreign market always took a special place in a country’s economy. Political and social factors came into play making currency rate changes fluctuate rapidly. Currency rate prediction has become an important factor for larger international businesses since large amounts of money exchanged between countries. This research focuses on comparing the accuracy of mainly three models; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Support Vector Machines(SVM). series of data import, export, USD currency exchange rate respect to LKR has been selected for training using above mentioned algorithms. After training the data set and comparing each algorithm, it was able to see that prediction in SVM performed better than other models. It was improved more by combining SVM and SVR models together.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANN, FFNN, RMSE, SVM, SVR

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6404 Service Life Prediction of Tunnel Structures Subjected to Water Seepage

Authors: Hassan Baji, Chun-Qing Li, Wei Yang

Abstract:

Water seepage is one of the most common causes of damage in tunnel structures, which can cause direct and indirect e.g. reinforcement corrosion and calcium leaching damages. Estimation of water seepage or inflow is one of the main challenges in probabilistic assessment of tunnels. The methodology proposed in this study is an attempt for mathematically modeling the water seepage in tunnel structures and further predicting its service life. Using the time-dependent reliability, water seepage is formulated as a failure mode, which can be used for prediction of service life. Application of the formulated seepage failure mode to a case study tunnel is presented.

Keywords: water seepage, tunnels, time-dependent reliability, service life

Procedia PDF Downloads 477
6403 Demographic Bomb or Bonus in All Provinces in 100 Years after Indonesian Independence

Authors: Fitri CaturLestari

Abstract:

According to National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN), demographic bonus will occur in 2025-2035, when the number of people within the productive age bracket is higher than the number of elderly people and children. This time will be a gold moment for Indonesia to achieve maximum productivity and prosperity. But it will be a demographic bomb if it isn’t balanced by economic and social aspect considerations. Therefore it is important to make a prediction mapping of all provinces in Indonesia whether in demographic bomb or bonus condition after 100 years Indonesian independence. The purpose of this research were to make the demographic mapping based on the economic and social aspects of the provinces in Indonesia and categorizing them into demographic bomb and bonus condition. The research data are gained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) as the secondary data. The multiregional component method, regression and quadrant analysis were used to predict the number of people, economic growth, Human Development Index (HDI), and gender equality in education and employment. There were different characteristic of provinces in Indonesia from economic aspect and social aspect. The west Indonesia was already better developed than the east one. The prediction result, many provinces in Indonesia will get demographic bonus but the others will get demographic bomb. It is important to prepare particular strategy to particular provinces with all of their characteristic based on the prediction result so the demographic bomb can be minimalized.

Keywords: demography, economic growth, gender, HDI

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6402 Data Science-Based Key Factor Analysis and Risk Prediction of Diabetic

Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

Abstract:

This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

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6401 Feasibility of Risk Assessment for Type 2 Diabetes in Community Pharmacies Using Two Different Approaches: A Pilot Study in Thailand

Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

Abstract:

Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes

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6400 Prediction of Bariatric Surgery Publications by Using Different Machine Learning Algorithms

Authors: Senol Dogan, Gunay Karli

Abstract:

Identification of relevant publications based on a Medline query is time-consuming and error-prone. An all based process has the potential to solve this problem without any manual work. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the ability of machine learning to identify relevant articles accurately. 5 different machine learning algorithms were tested using 23 predictors based on several metadata fields attached to publications. We find that the Boosted model is the best-performing algorithm and its overall accuracy is 96%. In addition, specificity and sensitivity of the algorithm is 97 and 93%, respectively. As a result of the work, we understood that we can apply the same procedure to understand cancer gene expression big data.

Keywords: prediction of publications, machine learning, algorithms, bariatric surgery, comparison of algorithms, boosted, tree, logistic regression, ANN model

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6399 Empowering Transformers for Evidence-Based Medicine

Authors: Jinan Fiaidhi, Hashmath Shaik

Abstract:

Breaking the barrier for practicing evidence-based medicine relies on effective methods for rapidly identifying relevant evidence from the body of biomedical literature. An important challenge confronted by medical practitioners is the long time needed to browse, filter, summarize and compile information from different medical resources. Deep learning can help in solving this based on automatic question answering (Q&A) and transformers. However, Q&A and transformer technologies are not trained to answer clinical queries that can be used for evidence-based practice, nor can they respond to structured clinical questioning protocols like PICO (Patient/Problem, Intervention, Comparison and Outcome). This article describes the use of deep learning techniques for Q&A that are based on transformer models like BERT and GPT to answer PICO clinical questions that can be used for evidence-based practice extracted from sound medical research resources like PubMed. We are reporting acceptable clinical answers that are supported by findings from PubMed. Our transformer methods are reaching an acceptable state-of-the-art performance based on two staged bootstrapping processes involving filtering relevant articles followed by identifying articles that support the requested outcome expressed by the PICO question. Moreover, we are also reporting experimentations to empower our bootstrapping techniques with patch attention to the most important keywords in the clinical case and the PICO questions. Our bootstrapped patched with attention is showing relevancy of the evidence collected based on entropy metrics.

Keywords: automatic question answering, PICO questions, evidence-based medicine, generative models, LLM transformers

Procedia PDF Downloads 33