Search results for: predictive model

Authors: Hanife Merve Öztürk, Sıdıka Dalgan

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In this project, a capacity analysis study is done at TAT A. Ş. Maret Plant. Production capacity of products which generate 80% of sales amount are determined. Obtained data entered the LEKIN Scheduling Program and we get production schedules by using heuristic methods. Besides heuristic methods, as mathematical model, disjunctive programming formulation is adapted to flexible job shop problems by adding a new constraint to find optimal schedule solution.

Keywords: scheduling, flexible job shop problem, shifting bottleneck heuristic, mathematical modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Francesco Saverio Angiò

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The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant / Syria (ISIL/S), Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad, also known as ‘Boko Haram’ (BH), have fought successfully against Syria and Iraq, Mali, Nigeria’s government, respectively. According to Napoleoni, the ‘shell-state’ concept can explain the economic dimension and the financing model of the ISIL insurgency. However, she argues that AQIM and BH did not properly plan their financial model. Consequently, her idea would not be suitable to these groups. Nevertheless, AQIM and BH’s economic performances and their (short) territorialisation suggest that their financing models respond to a well-defined strategy, which they were able to adapt to new circumstances. Therefore, Napoleoni’s idea of ‘shell-state’ can be applied to the three jihadist armed groups. In the last five years, together with other similar entities, ISIL/S, AQIM and BH have been fighting against governments with insurgent tactics and terrorism acts, conquering and ruling a quasi-state; a physical space they presented as legitimate territorial entity, thanks to a puritan version of the Islamic law. In these territories, they have exploited the traditional local economic networks. In addition, they have contributed to the development of legal and illegal transnational business activities. They have also established a justice system and created an administrative structure to supply services. Napoleoni’s ‘shell-state’ can describe the evolution of ISIL/S, AQIM and BH, which has switched from an insurgency to a proto or a quasi-state entity, enjoying a significant share of power over territories and populations. Napoleoni first developed and applied the ‘Shell-state’ concept to describe the nature of groups such as the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), before using it to explain the expansion of ISIL. However, her original conceptualisation emphasises on the economic dimension of the rise of the insurgency, focusing on the ‘business’ model and the insurgents’ financing management skills, which permits them to turn into an organisation. However, the idea of groups which use, coordinate and grab some territorial economic activities (at the same time, encouraging new criminal ones), can also be applied to administrative, social, infrastructural, legal and military levels of their insurgency, since they contribute to transform the insurgency to the same extent the economic dimension does. In addition, according to Napoleoni’s view, the ‘shell-state’ prism is valid to understand the ISIL/S phenomenon, because the group has carefully planned their financial steps. Napoleoni affirmed that ISIL/S carries out activities in order to promote their conversion from a group relying on external sponsors to an entity that can penetrate and condition local economies. On the contrary, ‘shell-state’ could not be applied to AQIM or BH, which are acting more like smugglers. Nevertheless, despite its failure to control territories, as ISIL has been able to do, AQIM and BH have responded strategically to their economic circumstances and have defined specific dynamics to ensure a flow of stable funds. Therefore, Napoleoni’s theory is applicable.

Keywords: shell-state, jihadist insurgency, proto or quasi-state entity economic planning, strategic financing

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Authors: Yusuf E. Mustapha, Inioluwa A Akindoyeni, Oluwatoyin G. Ezekiel, Ifeoluwa O. Awogbindin, Ebenezer O. Farombi

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Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) is the most prevalent motor disorder. Available therapies are palliative with no effect on disease progression. Kolaviron (KV), a natural anti-inflammatory and antioxidant agent, has been reported to possess neuroprotective effects in Parkinsonian flies and rats. Objective: The present study investigates the neuroprotective effect of KV, focusing on the DJ1/Nrf2 signaling pathway. Methodology: All-trans retinoic acid (ATRA, 10 mg/kg, i.p.) was used to inhibit Nrf2. Murine model of PD was established with four doses of MPTP (20 mg/kg i.p.) at 2 hours interval. MPTP mice were pre-treated with either KV (200 mg/kg/day p.o), ATRA, or both conditions for seven days before PD induction. Motor behaviour was evaluated, and markers of oxidative stress/damage and its regulators were assessed with immunofluorescence and ELISA techniques. Results: MPTP-treated mice covered less distance with reduced numbers of anticlockwise rotations, heightened freezing, and prolonged immobility when compared to control. However, KV significantly attenuated these deficits. Pretreatment of MPTP mice with KV upregulated Nrf2 expression beyond MPTP level with a remarkable reduction in Keap1 expression and marked elevation of DJ-1 level, whereas co-administration with ATRA abrogated these effects. KV treatment restored MPTP-mediated depletion of endogenous antioxidant, striatal oxidative stress, oxidative damage, and inhibition of acetylcholinesterase activity. However, ATRA treatment potentiated acetylcholinesterase inhibition and attenuated the protective effect of KV on the level of nitric oxide and activities of catalase and superoxide dismutase. Conclusion: Kolaviron protects Parkinsonian mice by stabilizing and activating the Nrf2 signaling pathway. Thus, kolaviron can be explored as a pharmacological lead in PD management.

Keywords: Garcinia kola, Kolaviron, Parkinson Disease, Nrf2, behavioral incompetence, neurodegeneration

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Authors: Nuri Onat, Omer Tatari, Gokhan Egilmez

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The U.S. buildings consume significant amount of energy and natural resources and they are responsible for approximately 40 % of the greenhouse gases emitted in the United States. Awareness of these environmental impacts paved the way for the adoption of green building movement. The green building movement is a rapidly increasing trend. Green Construction market has generated $173 billion dollars in GDP, supported over 2.4 million jobs, and provided $123 billion dollars in labor earnings. The number of LEED certified buildings is projected to be almost half of the all new, nonresidential buildings by 2015. National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) aims to increase number of net-zero energy buildings (NZB). The ultimate goal is to have all commercial NZB by 2050 in the US (NSTC 2008). Green Building Initiative (GBI) became the first green building organization that is accredited by American National Standards Institute (ANSI), which will also boost number of green buildings certified by Green Globes. However, there is much less focus on greening the residential buildings, although the environmental impacts of existing residential buildings are more than that of commercial buildings. In this regard, current research aims to model the residential green building movement with a dynamic model approach and assess the possible strategies to stabilize the carbon footprint of the U.S. residential building stock. Three aspects of sustainable development are considered in policy making, namely: high performance green building (HPGB) construction, NZB construction and building retrofitting. 19 different policy options are proposed and analyzed. Results of this study explored that increasing the construction rate of HPGBs or NZBs is not a sufficient policy to stabilize the carbon footprint of the residential buildings. Energy efficient building retrofitting options are found to be more effective strategies then increasing HPGBs and NZBs construction. Also, significance of shifting to renewable energy sources for electricity generation is stressed.

Keywords: green building movement, residential buildings, carbon footprint, system dynamics

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Authors: Marcin Baranski

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This article presents a vibration diagnostic method designed for permanent magnets (PM) traction motors. Those machines are commonly used in traction drives of electrical vehicles. Specific structural properties of machines excited by permanent magnets are used in this method - electromotive force (EMF) generated due to vibrations. This work presents: field-circuit model, results of static tests, results of calculations and simulations.

Keywords: electrical vehicle, permanent magnet, traction drive, vibrations, electrical machine, eccentricity

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Authors: Ainas Belkacem, Fourar Ali

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The present study focuses on the mathematical modeling and calculation of physical parameters of water pollution by oil and sand in regime fully dispersed in water. In this study, the sand particles and oil are suspended in the case of fully developed turbulence. The study consists to understand, model and predict the viscosity, the structure and dynamics of these types of mixtures. The work carried out is Numerical and validated by experience.

Keywords: multi phase flow, pollution, suspensions, turbulence

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Roengchai Tansuchat, Woraphon Yamaka, Paravee Maneejuk

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From the past recent, the global financial crisis, economic instability, and large fluctuation in agricultural commodity price have led to increased concerns about the volatility transmission among them. The problem is further exacerbated by commodities volatility caused by other commodity price fluctuations, hence the decision on hedging strategy has become both costly and useless. Thus, this paper is conducted to analysis the volatility spillover effect among major agriculture including corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, to help the commodity suppliers hedge their portfolios, and manage the risk and co-volatility of them. We provide a switching regime approach to analyzing the issue of volatility spillovers in different economic conditions, namely upturn and downturn economic. In particular, we investigate relationships and volatility transmissions between these commodities in different economic conditions. We purposed a Copula-based multivariate Markov Switching GARCH model with two regimes that depend on an economic conditions and perform simulation study to check the accuracy of our proposed model. In this study, the correlation term in the cross-hedge ratio is obtained from six copula families – two elliptical copulas (Gaussian and Student-t) and four Archimedean copulas (Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, and Joe). We use one-step maximum likelihood estimation techniques to estimate our models and compare the performance of these copula using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). In the application study of agriculture commodities, the weekly data used are conducted from 4 January 2005 to 1 September 2016, covering 612 observations. The empirical results indicate that the volatility spillover effects among cereal futures are different, as response of different economic condition. In addition, the results of hedge effectiveness will also suggest the optimal cross hedge strategies in different economic condition especially upturn and downturn economic.

Keywords: agricultural commodity futures, cereal, cross-hedge, spillover effect, switching regime approach

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Authors: Angela Odero, Chrysoula Karathanasi, Michèle Baumann

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Integration of foreign communities has been a forefront issue in Luxembourg for some time now. The country’s continued progress depends largely on the successful integration of immigrants. The aim of our study was to analyze factors which intervene in the course of integration of Non-EU citizens through the discourse of Non-EU citizens residing in Luxembourg, who have signed the Welcome and Integration Contract (CAI). The two-year contract offers integration services to assist foreigners in getting settled in the country. Semi-structured focus group discussions with 50 volunteers were held in English, French, Spanish, Serbo-Croatian or Chinese. Participants were asked to talk about their integration experiences. Recorded then transcribed, the transcriptions were analyzed with the help of NVivo 10, a qualitative analysis software. A systematic and reiterative analysis of decomposing and reconstituting was realized through (1) the identification of predetermined categories (difficulties, challenges and integration needs) (2) initial coding – the grouping together of similar ideas (3) axial coding – the regrouping of items from the initial coding in new ways in order to create sub-categories and identify other core dimensions. Our results show that intervening factors include language acquisition, professional career and socio-cultural activities or events. Each of these factors constitutes different components whose weight shifts from person to person and from situation to situation. Connecting these three emergent factors are two elements essential to the success of the immigrant’s integration – the role of time and deliberate effort from the immigrants, the community, and the formal institutions charged with helping immigrants integrate. We propose a theoretical model where the factors described may be classified in terms of how they predispose, facilitate, and / or reinforce the process towards a successful integration. Measures currently in place propose one size fits all programs yet integrative measures which target the family unit and those customized to target groups based on their needs would work best.

Keywords: integration, integration services, non-eu citizens, qualitative analysis, third country nationals

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Authors: Brahim Boukabcha, Amar Rebbouh

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The bootstrap method based on the idea of exploiting all the information provided by the initial sample, allows us to study the properties of estimators. In this article we will present a theoretical study on the different methods of bootstrapping and using the technique of re-sampling in statistics inference to calculate the standard error of means of an estimator and determining a confidence interval for an estimated parameter. We apply these methods tested in the regression models and Pareto model, giving the best approximations.

Keywords: bootstrap, error standard, bias, jackknife, mean, median, variance, confidence interval, regression models

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Authors: Gift Chidi-Onwuta, Iwe Nkem Nkechinyere, Chikamadu Christabelle Chinyere

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The teaching of English is a resource-driven activity that requires rich resource-classroom settings for the delivery of effective lessons and the acquisition of interpersonal skills for integration in a target-language environment. However, throughout the world, English is often taught in low-resource classrooms. This paper is aimed to reveal the common problems associated with teaching English in low-resource environments and the prospects for teachers who found themselves in such undefined teaching settings. Self-structured and validated questionnaire in a closed-ended format, open question format and scaling format was administered to teachers across five countries: Nigeria, Cameroun, Iraq, Turkey, and Sudan. The study adopts situational language teaching theory (SLTT), which emphasizes a performance improvement imperative. This study inclines to this model because it maintains that learning must be fun and enjoyable like playing a favorite sport, just as in real life. Since teaching resources make learning engaging, we found this model apt for the current study. The perceptions of teachers about accessibility and functionality of teaching material resources, the nature of teaching outcomes in resource-less environments, their levels of involvement in improvisation and the prospects associated with resource limitations were sourced. Data were analysed using percentages and presented in frequency tables. Results: showed that a greater number of teachers across these nations do not have access to sufficient productive resource materials that can aid effective English language teaching. Teaching outcomes, from the findings, are affected by low material resources; however, results show certain advantages to teaching English with limited resources: flexibility and autonomy with students and creativity and innovation amongst teachers. Results further revealed group work, story, critical thinking strategy, flex, cardboards and flashcards, dictation and dramatization as common teaching strategies, as well as materials adopted by teachers to overcome low resource-related challenges in classrooms.

Keywords: teaching materials, low-resource environments, English language teaching, situational language theory

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Authors: Jessica Raven Gates, Gemma Wilson-Menzfeld, Professor Alison Steven

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In 2019, the Primary Care system in the UK National Health Service (NHS) was subject to reform and restructuring. Primary Care Networks (PCNs) were established, which aligned with a trend towards integrated care both within the NHS and internationally. The introduction of PCNs brought groups of GP practices in a locality together, to operate as a network, build on existing services and collaborate at a larger scale. PCNs were expected to bring a range of benefits to patients and address some of the workforce pressures in the NHS, through an expanded and collaborative workforce. The early establishment of PCNs was disrupted by the emerging COVID-19 pandemic. This study, set in the context of the pandemic, aimed to explore experiences of the PCN workforce, and their perceptions of the establishment of PCNs. Specific objectives focussed on examining factors perceived as enabling or hindering the success of a PCN, the impact on day-to-day work, the approach to implementing change, and the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic upon PCN development. This study is part of a three-phase PhD project that utilized qualitative approaches and was underpinned by social constructionist philosophy. Phase 1: a systematic narrative review explored the provision of preventative healthcare services in UK primary settings and examined facilitators and barriers to delivery as experienced by the workforce. Phase 2: informed by the findings of phase 1, semi-structured interviews were conducted with fifteen participants (PCN workforce). Phase 3: follow-up interviews were conducted with original participants to examine any changes to their experiences and perceptions of PCNs. Three main themes span across phases 2 and 3 and were generated through a Framework Analysis approach: 1) working together at scale, 2) network infrastructure, and 3) PCN leadership. Findings suggest that through efforts to work together at scale and collaborate as a network, participants have broadly accepted the concept of PCNs. However, the workforce has been hampered by system design and system complexity. Operating against such barriers has led to a negative psychological impact on some PCN leaders and others in the PCN workforce. While the pandemic undeniably increased pressure on healthcare systems around the world, it also acted as a disruptor, offering a glimpse into how collaboration in primary care can work well. Through the integration of findings from all phases, a new theoretical model has been developed, which conceptualises the findings from this Ph.D. study and demonstrates how the workforce has experienced change associated with the establishment of PCNs. The model includes a contextual component of the COVID-19 pandemic and has been informed by concepts from Complex Adaptive Systems theory. This model is the original contribution to knowledge of the PhD project, alongside recommendations for practice, policy and future research. This study is significant in the realm of health services research, and while the setting for this study is the UK NHS, the findings will be of interest to an international audience as the research provides insight into how the healthcare workforce may experience imposed policy and service changes.

Keywords: health services research, qualitative research, NHS workforce, primary care

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Authors: Nana Katsitadze, Tamar Atanelishvili, Mariam Kutateladze, Alexandre Tushishvili

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In the modern world, tourism has emerged as one of the most powerful economic sectors, and due to its high economic performance, it is attractive to the countries with various levels of economic development. The purpose of the present paper, dedicated to discussing the current problems of tourism development, is to find ways which will contribute to bringing more benefits to the country from the sector. Georgia has been successfully developing leisure tourism for the last ten years, and at the next stage of development business, tourism gains particular importance for Georgia as a means of mitigating the negative socio-economic effects caused by the seasonality of tourism and as a high-cost tourism market. Therefore, the object of the paper is to study the factors that contribute to the development of business tourism. The paper uses the research methods such as system analysis, synthesis, analogy, as well as historical, comparative, economic, and statistical methods of analysis. The information base for the research is made up of the statistics on the functioning of the tourism market of Georgia and foreign countries as well as official data provided by international organizations in the field of tourism. Based on the experience of business tourism around the world and identifying the successful start of business tourism development in Georgia and its causing factors, a business tourism development model for Georgia has been developed. The model might be useful as a methodological material for developing a business tourism development concept for the countries with limited financial resources but rich in tourism resources like Georgia. On the initial stage of development (in absence of conventional centers), the suggested concept of business tourism development involves organizing small and medium-sized meetings both in large cities and in regions by using high-class hotel infrastructure and event management services. Relocation of small meetings to the regions encourages inclusive development of the sector based on increasing the awareness of these regions as tourist sites as well as the increase in employment and sales of other tourism or consumer products. Business tourism increases the number of hotel visitors in the non-seasonal period and improves hotel performance indicators, which enhances the attractiveness of investing in the hotel business. According to the present concept of business tourism development, at the initial stage, development of business tourism is based on the existing markets, including internal market, neighboring markets and the markets of geographically relatively near countries and at the next stage, the concept involves generating tourists from other relatively distant target markets. As a result, by gaining experience in business tourism, enhancing professionalism, increasing awareness and stimulating infrastructure development, the country will prepare the basis to move to a higher stage of tourism development. In addition, the experience showed that for attracting large customers, peculiarities of the field require activation of state policy and active use of marketing mechanisms and tools of the state.

Keywords: hotel industry development, MICE model, MICE strategy, MICE tourism in Georgia

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Authors: Mahnaz Jafari, Parisa Izadpanahi, Francesco Mancini, Muhammad Qureshi

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The advancement in Information Technology (IT) has been an intrinsic element in the developments of the 21st century bringing benefits such as increased economic productivity. However, its widespread application has also been associated with inadvertent negative impacts on society and the environment necessitating selective interventions to mitigate these impacts. This study responded to this need by developing a Green IT Rating Tool (GIRT) for higher education institutions (HEI) in Australia to evaluate the sustainability of IT-related practices from an environmental, social, and economic perspective. Each dimension must be considered equally to achieve sustainability. The development of the GIRT was informed by the views of interviewed IT professionals whose opinions formed the basis of a framework listing Green IT initiatives in order of their importance as perceived by the interviewed professionals. This framework formed the base of the GIRT, which identified Green IT initiatives (such as videoconferencing as a substitute for long-distance travel) and the associated weighting of each practice. The proposed sustainable Green IT model could be integrated into existing IT systems, leading to significant reductions in carbon emissions and e-waste and improvements in energy efficiency. The development of the GIRT and the findings of this study have the potential to inspire other organizations to adopt sustainable IT practices, positively impact the environment, and be used as a reference by IT professionals and decision-makers to evaluate IT-related sustainability practices. The GIRT could also serve as a benchmark for HEIs to compare their performance with other institutions and to track their progress over time. Additionally, the study's results suggest that virtual and cloud-based technologies could reduce e-waste and energy consumption in the higher education sector. Overall, this study highlights the importance of incorporating Green IT practices into the IT systems of HEI to contribute to a more sustainable future.

Keywords: green information technology, international higher-educational institution, sustainable solutions, environmentally friendly IT systems

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Authors: Nourhane Mohamed El Haridi, Mostafa El Arabi, Zeyad El Sayad

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Biomimicry is defined, by Benyus the natural sciences writer, as imitating or taking inspiration from nature’s forms and processes to solve human problems. Biomimicry is the conscious emulation of life’s genius. As the design community realizes the tremendous impact human constructions have on the world, environmental designers look to new approaches like biomimicry to advance sustainable design. Building leading the declaration made by biomimicry scientists that a full imitation of nature engages form, ecosystem, and process; this paper uses a logic approach to interpret human and environmental wholeness. Designers would benefit from both integrating social theory with environmental thinking and from combining their substantive skills with techniques for getting sustainable biomimic urban design. Integrating biomimicryʹs “Life’s Principles” into a built environment process model will make biomimicry more accessible and thus more widely accepted throughout the industry, and the sustainability of all species will benefit. The Biomimicry Guild hypothesizes the incorporation of these principles, called Lifeʹs Principles, increase the likelihood of sustainability for a respective design, and make it more likely that the design will have a greater impact on sustainability for future generations of all species as mentioned by Benyus in her book. This thesis utilizes Life’s Principles as a foundation for a design process model intended for application on built environment projects at various scales. This paper takes a look at the importance of the integration of biomimicry in urban design to get more sustainable cities and better life, by analyzing the principles of both sustainability and biomimicry, and applying these ideas on futuristic or existing cities to make a biomimic sustainable city more healthier and more conductive to life, and get a better biomimic urban design. A group of experts, architects, biologists, scientists, economists and ecologists should work together to face all the financial and designing difficulties, to have better solutions and good innovative ideas for biomimic sustainable urban design, it is not the only solution, but it is one of the best studies for a better future.

Keywords: biomimicry, built environment, sustainability, urban design

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Authors: Geuna Kim, Sanghyun Kim

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This study investigates various factors that may influence the ISM process, including the organization’s internal needs and external pressure, and examines the role of regulatory pressure in ISM development and performance. The 105 sets of data collected in a survey were tested against the research model using SEM. The results indicate that NP and TP had positive effects on the ISM process, except for perceived benefits. Regulatory pressure had a positive effect on the relationship between ISM awareness and ISM development and performance.

Keywords: information security management, need pull, technology push, regulatory pressure

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Authors: Rachel A. Brant, Grace E. Kenny, Paige A. Muñiz, Gerardo R. Camilo

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The social sweat bee, Halictus ligatus, has been documented to alter its phenology as a response to changes in temporal dynamics of resources. Furthermore, H. ligatus exhibits polyethism in natural environments as a consequence of the variation in resources. Yet, we do not know if or how H. ligatus responds to these variations in urban environments. As urban environments become much more widespread, and human population is expected to reach nine billion by 2050, it is crucial to distinguish how resources are allocated by bees in cities. We hypothesize that in urban regions, where floral availability varies with human activity, H. ligatus will exhibit polyethism in order to match the extremely localized spatial variability of resources. We predict that in an urban setting, where resources vary both spatially and temporally, the phenology of H. ligatus will alter in response to these fluctuations. This study was conducted in Saint Louis, Missouri, at fifteen sites each varying in size and management type (community garden, urban farm, prairie restoration). Bees were collected by hand netting from 2013-2016. Results suggest that the largest individuals, mostly gynes, occurred in lower income neighborhood community gardens in May and August. We used a model averaging procedure, based on information theoretical methods, to determine a best model for predicting bee size. Our results suggest that month and locality within the city are the best predictors of bee size. Halictus ligatus was observed to comply with the predictions of polyethism from 2013 to 2015. However, in 2016 there was an almost complete absence of the smallest worker castes. This is a significant deviation from what is expected under polyethism. This could be attributed to shifts in planting decisions, shifts in plant-pollinator matches, or local climatic conditions. Further research is needed to determine if this divergence from polyethism is a new strategy for the social sweat bee as climate continues to alter or a response to human dominated landscapes.

Keywords: polyethism, urban environment, phenology, social sweat bee

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Authors: Rishi Sharma, S. N. Maiti

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The non-isothermal crystallization kinetics of PP/SEBS-g-MA blends up to 0-50% concentration of copolymer was studied by differential scanning calorimetry at four different cooling rates. Crystallization parameters were analyzed by Avrami and Jeziorny models. Primary and secondary crystallization processes were described by Avrami equation. Avrami model showed that all types of shapes grow from small dimensions during primary crystallization. However, three-dimensional crystal growth was observed during the secondary crystallization process. The crystallization peak and onset temperature decrease, however

Keywords: crystallization kinetics, non-isothermal, polypropylene, SEBS-g-MA

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Authors: Kiatkulchai Jitt-Aer, Graham Wall, Dylan Jones

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As a result of the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, logistics applied to disaster relief operations has received great attention in the humanitarian sector. As learned from such disaster, preparing and responding to the aspect of delivering essential items from distribution centres to affected locations are of the importance for relief operations as the nature of disasters is uncertain especially in suffering figures, which are normally proportional to quantity of supplies. Thus, this study proposes a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for humanitarian logistics by integrating Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP). The GIS is utilised for acquiring demands simulated from the tsunami flooding model of the affected area in the first stage, and visualising the simulation solutions in the last stage. While CVRP in this study encompasses designing the relief routes of a set of homogeneous vehicles from a relief centre to a set of geographically distributed evacuation points in which their demands are estimated by using both simulation and randomisation techniques. The CVRP is modeled as a multi-objective optimization problem where both total travelling distance and total transport resources used are minimized, while demand-cost efficiency of each route is maximized in order to determine route priority. As the model is a NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem, the Clarke and Wright Saving heuristics is proposed to solve the problem for the near-optimal solutions. The real-case instances in the coastal area of Phuket, Thailand are studied to perform the SDSS that allows a decision maker to visually analyse the simulation scenarios through different decision factors.

Keywords: demand simulation, humanitarian logistics, geographical information systems, relief operations, capacitated vehicle routing problem

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Authors: Sercan Altundemir, Pinar Eribol, A. Kerem Uguz

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Microfluidics systems allow many-large scale laboratory applications to be miniaturized on a single device in order to reduce cost and advance fluid control. Moreover, such systems enable to generate and control droplets which have a significant role on improved analysis for many chemical and biological applications. For example, they can be employed as the model for cells in microfluidic systems. In this work, the interfacial instability of two immiscible Newtonian liquids flowing in a microchannel is investigated. When two immiscible liquids are in laminar regime, a flat interface is formed between them. If a direct current electric field is applied, the interface may deform, i.e. may become unstable and it may be ruptured and form micro-droplets. First, the effect of thickness ratio, total flow rate, viscosity ratio of the silicone oil and ethylene glycol liquid couple on the critical voltage at which the interface starts to destabilize is investigated. Then the droplet sizes are measured under the effect of these parameters at various voltages. Moreover, the effect of total flow rate on the time elapsed for the interface to be ruptured to form droplets by hitting the wall of the channel is analyzed. It is observed that an increase in the viscosity or the thickness ratio of the silicone oil to the ethylene glycol has a stabilizing effect, i.e. a higher voltage is needed while the total flow rate has no effect on it. However, it is observed that an increase in the total flow rate results in shortening of the elapsed time for the interface to hit the wall. Moreover, the droplet size decreases down to 0.1 μL with an increase in the applied voltage, the viscosity ratio or the total flow rate or a decrease in the thickness ratio. In addition to these observations, two empirical models for determining the critical electric number, i.e., the dimensionless voltage and the droplet size and another model which is a combination of both models, for determining the droplet size at the critical voltage are established.

Keywords: droplet formation, electrohydrodynamics, microfluidics, two-phase flow

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Authors: Felipe Henao, Yeny Rodriguez, Juan P. Viteri, Isaac Dyner

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Colombia is rich in natural resources and greatly focuses on the exploitation of water for hydroelectricity purposes. Alternative cleaner energy sources, such as solar and wind power, have been largely neglected despite: a) its abundance, b) the complementarities between hydro, solar and wind power, and c) the cost competitiveness of renewable technologies. The current limited mix of energy sources creates considerable weaknesses for the system, particularly when facing extreme dry weather conditions, such as El Niño event. In the past, El Niño have exposed the truly consequences of a system heavily dependent on hydropower, i.e. loss of power supply, high energy production costs, and loss of overall competitiveness for the country. Nonetheless, it is expected that the participation of hydroelectricity will increase in the near future. In this context, this paper proposes a stochastic lineal programming model to optimize the insertion of renewable energy systems (RES) into the Colombian electricity sector. The model considers cost-based generation competition between traditional energy technologies and alternative RES. This work evaluates the financial, environmental, and technical implications of different combinations of technologies. Various scenarios regarding the future evolution of costs of the technologies are considered to conduct sensitivity analysis of the solutions – to assess the extent of the participation of the RES in the Colombian power sector. Optimization results indicate that, even in the worst case scenario, where costs remain constant, the Colombian power sector should diversify its portfolio of technologies and invest strongly in solar and wind power technologies. The diversification through RES will contribute to make the system less vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, reduce the overall system costs, cut CO2 emissions, and decrease the chances of having national blackout events in the future. In contrast, the business as usual scenario indicates that the system will turn more costly and less reliable.

Keywords: energy policy and planning, stochastic programming, sustainable development, water management

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Authors: Assabo Mohamed, Bile Mohamed, Ali Farah, Isman Souleiman, Olga Alos Ramos, Marie Cadet

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The life of a nuclear power plant is regularly punctuated by short or long period outages to carry out maintenance operations and/or nuclear fuel reloading. During these stops periods, it is essential to conserve all the secondary circuit equipment to avoid corrosion priming. This kind of circuit is one of the main components of a nuclear reactor. Indeed, the conservation materials on shutdown of a nuclear unit improve circuit performance and reduce the maintenance cost considerably. This study is a part of the optimization of the dry preservation of equipment from the water station of the nuclear reactor. The main objective is to provide tools to guide Electricity Production Nuclear Centre (EPNC) in order to achieve the criteria required by the chemical specifications of conservation materials. A theoretical model of drying exchangers of water station is developed by the software Engineering Equation Solver (EES). It used to size requirements and air quality needed for dry conservation of equipment. This model is based on heat transfer and mass transfer governing the drying operation. A parametric study is conducted to know the influence of aerothermal factor taking part in the drying operation. The results show that the success of dry conservation of equipment of the secondary circuit of nuclear reactor depends strongly on the draining, the quality of drying air and the flow of air injecting in the secondary circuit. Finally, theoretical case study performed on EES highlights the importance of mastering the entire system to balance the air system to provide each exchanger optimum flow depending on its characteristics. From these results, recommendations to nuclear power plants can be formulated to optimize drying practices and achieve good performance in the conservation of material from the water at the stop position.

Keywords: dry conservation, optimization, sizing, water station

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Authors: Angelo Corallo, Maria Elena Latino, Marta Menegoli

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The link between man and food plays, in the social and economic system, a central role where cultural and multidisciplinary aspects intertwine: food is not only nutrition, but also communication, culture, politics, environment, science, ethics, fashion. This multi-dimensionality has many implications in the food economy. In recent years, the consumer became more conscious about his food choices, involving a consistent change in consumption models. This change concerns several aspects: awareness of food system issues, employment of socially and environmentally conscious decision-making, food choices based on different characteristics than nutritional ones i.e. origin of food, how it’s produced, and who’s producing it. In this frame the ‘consumption choices’ and the ‘interests of the citizen’ become one part of the others. The figure of the ‘Citizen Consumer’ is born, a responsible and ethically motivated individual to change his lifestyle, achieving the goal of sustainable consumption. Simultaneously the branding, that before was guarantee of the product quality, today is questioned. In order to meet these needs, Agri-Food companies are developing specific product lines that follow two main philosophies: ‘Back to basics’ and ‘Less is more’. However, the issue of ethical behavior does not seem to find an adequate on market offer. Most likely due to a lack of attention on the communication strategy used, very often based on market logic and rarely on ethical one. The label in its classic concept of ‘clean labeling’ can no longer be the only instrument through which to convey product information and its evolution towards a concept of ‘clear label’ is necessary to embrace ethical and transparent concepts in progress the process of democratization of the Food System. The implementation of a voluntary traceability path, relying on the technological models of the Internet of Things or Industry 4.0, would enable the Agri-Food Supply Chain to collect data that, if properly treated, could satisfy the information need of consumers. A change of approach is therefore proposed towards Agri-Food traceability that is no longer intended as a tool to be used to respond to the legislator, but rather as a promotional tool useful to tell the company in a transparent manner and then reach the slice of the market of food citizens. The use of mobile technology can also facilitate this information transfer. However, in order to guarantee maximum efficiency, an appropriate communication model based on the ethical communication principles should be used, which aims to overcome the pipeline communication model, to offer the listener a new way of telling the food product, based on real data collected through processes traceability. The Citizen Consumer is therefore placed at the center of the new model of communication in which he has the opportunity to choose what to know and how. The new label creates a virtual access point capable of telling the product according to different point of views, following the personal interests and offering the possibility to give several content modalities to support different situations and usability.

Keywords: agri food traceability, agri-food transparency, clear label, food system, internet of things

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Authors: Manish Chand, Subhrojit Bagchi, R. Kumar

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A new dry tube (DT) has been installed in the tank of KAMINI research reactor, Kalpakkam India. This tube will be used for neutron activation analysis of small to large samples and testing of neutron detectors. DT tube is 375 cm height and 7.5 cm in diameter, located 35 cm away from the core centre. The experimental thermal flux at various axial positions inside the tube has been measured by irradiating the flux monitor (¹⁹⁷Au) at 20kW reactor power. The measured activity of ¹⁹⁸Au and the thermal cross section of ¹⁹⁷Au (n,γ) ¹⁹⁸Au reaction were used for experimental thermal flux measurement. The flux inside the tube varies from 10⁹ to 10¹⁰ and maximum flux was (1.02 ± 0.023) x10¹⁰ n cm⁻²s⁻¹ at 36 cm from the bottom of the tube. The Au and Zr foils without and with cadmium cover of 1-mm thickness were irradiated at the maximum flux position in the DT to find out the irradiation specific input parameters like sub-cadmium to epithermal neutron flux ratio (f) and the epithermal neutron flux shape factor (α). The f value was 143 ± 5, indicates about 99.3% thermal neutron component and α value was -0.2886 ± 0.0125, indicates hard epithermal neutron spectrum due to insufficient moderation. The measured flux profile has been validated using theoretical model of KAMINI reactor through Monte Carlo N-Particle Code (MCNP). In MCNP, the complex geometry of the entire reactor is modelled in 3D, ensuring minimum approximations for all the components. Continuous energy cross-section data from ENDF-B/VII.1 as well as S (α, β) thermal neutron scattering functions are considered. The neutron flux has been estimated at the corresponding axial locations of the DT using mesh tally. The thermal flux obtained from the experiment shows good agreement with the theoretically predicted values by MCNP, it was within ± 10%. It can be concluded that this MCNP model can be utilized for calculating other important parameters like neutron spectra, dose rate, etc. and multi elemental analysis can be carried out by irradiating the sample at maximum flux position using measured f and α parameters by k₀-NAA standardization.

Keywords: neutron flux, neutron activation analysis, neutron flux shape factor, MCNP, Monte Carlo N-Particle Code

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Authors: Chetna Dhand, Venkatesh Mayandi, Silvia Marrero Diaz, Roger W. Beuerman, Seeram Ramakrishna, Rajamani Lakshminarayanan

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Sturdy Insect Cuticle Sclerotization, Incredible Substrate independent Mussel’s bioadhesion, Tanning of Leather are some of catechol(amine)s mediated natural processes. Chemical contemplation spots toward a mechanism instigated with the formation of the quinone moieties from the respective catechol(amine)s, via oxidation, followed by the nucleophilic addition of the amino acids/proteins/peptides to this quinone leads to the development of highly strong, cross-linked and water-resistant proteinacious structures. Inspired with this remarkable catechol(amine)s chemistry towards amino acids/proteins/peptides, we attempted to design highly stable and water-resistant antifungal wound dressing mats with exceptional durability using collagen (protein), dopamine (catecholamine) and antifungal drugs (Amphotericin B and Caspofungin) as the key materials. Electrospinning technique has been used to fabricate desired nanofibrous mat including Collagen (COLL), COLL/Dopamine (COLL/DP) and calcium incorporated COLL/DP (COLL-DP-Ca2+). The prepared protein-based scaffolds have been studied for their microscopic investigations (SEM, TEM, and AFM), structural analysis (FT-IR), mechanical properties, water wettability characteristics and aqueous stability. Biocompatibility of these scaffolds has been analyzed for dermal fibroblast cells using MTS assay, Cell TrackerTM Green CMFDA and confocal imaging. Being the winner sample, COLL-DP-Ca2+ scaffold has been selected for incorporating two antifungal drugs namely Caspofungin (Peptide based) and Amphotericin B (Non-Peptide based). Antifungal efficiency of the designed mats has been evaluated for eight diverse fungal strains employing different microbial assays including disc diffusion, cell-viability assay, time kill kinetics etc. To confirm the durability of these mats, in term of their antifungal activity, drug leaching studies has been performed and monitored using disc diffusion assay each day. Ex-vivo fungal infection model has also been developed and utilized to validate the antifungal efficacy of the designed wound dressings. Results clearly reveal dopamine mediated crosslinking within COLL-antifungal scaffolds that leads to the generation of highly stable, mechanical tough, biocompatible wound dressings having the zone of inhabitation of ≥ 2 cm for almost all the investigated fungal strains. Leaching studies and Ex-vivo model has confirmed the durability of these wound dressing for more than 3 weeks and certified their suitability for commercialization. A model has also been proposed to enlighten the chemical mechanism involved for the development of these antifungal wound dressings with exceptional robustness.

Keywords: catecholamine chemistry, electrospinning technique, antifungals, wound dressings, collagen

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Authors: David Lynch Steinicke, Citlali Aguilera Lira, Andrea León García

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The proposal posed in this work comes from a researching-action approach. In Mexico, a dialogue of knowledge may function as a link between traditional, local, pragmatic knowledge, and technological, scientific knowledge. The advantage of generating this nexus lies on the positive impact in the environment, in society and economy. This work attempts to combine, on the one hand the traditional Mexican knowledge such as the usage of medicinal herb and the agroecosystem milpa; and on the other hand make use of a newly created agricultural ecotechnology which main function is to take advantage of the urban space and to save water. This ecotechnology is the wicking bed. In a globalized world, is relevant to have a proposal where the most important aspect is to revalorize the culture through the acquisition of traditional knowledge but at the same time adapting them to the new social and urbanized structures without threatening the environment. The methodology used in this work comes from a researching-action approach combined with a practical dimension where an experimental model made of three wickingbeds was implemented. In this model, there were cultivated medicinal herb and milpa components. The water efficiency and the social acceptance were compared with a traditional ground crop, all this practice was made in an urban social context. The implementation of agricultural ecotechnology has had great social acceptance as its irrigation involves minimal effort and it is economically feasible for low-income people. The wicking bed system raised in this project is attainable to be implemented in schools, urban and peri-urban environments, homemade gardens and public areas. The proposal managed to carry out an innovative and sustainable knowledge-based traditional Mexican agricultural technology, allowing regain Milpa agroecosystem in urban environments to strengthen food security in favour of nutritional and protein benefits for the Mexican fare.

Keywords: milpa, traditional medicine, urban agriculture, wicking bed

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Authors: Korbinian Schmidtner, Rudolf Sailer, Perry Bartelt, Wolfgang Fellin, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Matthias Granig

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This study focuses on the evaluation of snow avalanche simulations, based on a survey that has been carried out among avalanche experts. In the last decades, the application of avalanche simulation tools has gained recognition within the realm of hazard management. Traditionally, avalanche runout models were used to predict extreme avalanche runout and prepare avalanche maps. This has changed rather dramatically with the application of numerical models. For safety regulations such as road safety simulation tools are now being coupled with real-time meteorological measurements to predict frequent avalanche hazard. That places new demands on model accuracy and requires the simulation of physical processes that previously could be ignored. These simulation tools are based on a deterministic description of the avalanche movement allowing to predict certain quantities (e.g. pressure, velocities, flow heights, runout lengths etc.) of the avalanche flow. Because of the highly variable regimes of the flowing snow, no uniform rheological law describing the motion of an avalanche is known. Therefore, analogies to fluid dynamical laws of other materials are stated. To transfer these constitutional laws to snow flows, certain assumptions and adjustments have to be imposed. Besides these limitations, there exist high uncertainties regarding the initial and boundary conditions. Further challenges arise when implementing the underlying flow model equations into an algorithm executable by a computer. This implementation is constrained by the choice of adequate numerical methods and their computational feasibility. Hence, the model development is compelled to introduce further simplifications and the related uncertainties. In the light of these issues many questions arise on avalanche simulations, on their assets and drawbacks, on potentials for improvements as well as their application in practice. To address these questions a survey among experts in the field of avalanche science (e.g. researchers, practitioners, engineers) from various countries has been conducted. In the questionnaire, special attention is drawn on the expert’s opinion regarding the influence of certain variables on the simulation result, their uncertainty and the reliability of the results. Furthermore, it was tested to which degree a simulation result influences the decision making for a hazard assessment. A discrepancy could be found between a large uncertainty of the simulation input parameters as compared to a relatively high reliability of the results. This contradiction can be explained taking into account how the experts employ the simulations. The credibility of the simulations is the result of a rather thoroughly simulation study, where different assumptions are tested, comparing the results of different flow models along with the use of supplemental data such as chronicles, field observation, silent witnesses i.a. which are regarded as essential for the hazard assessment and for sanctioning simulation results. As the importance of avalanche simulations grows within the hazard management along with their further development studies focusing on the modeling fashion could contribute to a better understanding how knowledge of the avalanche process can be gained by running simulations.

Keywords: expert interview, hazard management, modeling, simulation, snow avalanche

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Authors: Laura Butabayeva, Svetlana Ismagulova, Gulbarshin Nogaibayeva, Maiya Temirbayeva, Aidana Zhussip

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The article presents the main results of the study conducted within the grant project Organizational and methodological foundations for ensuring the inclusiveness of school students’ career guidance. The main aim of the Project is to study the issue of the absence of developed mechanisms, coordinating the activities of all stakeholders in preparing school students for conscious career choice, considering their individual opportunities and special educational needs. To achieve the aim of the Project, according to the implementation plan, the analysis of foreign and national literature on the studied problem, as well as the study of the state of school students’ career guidance and their socialization in the context of inclusive education were conducted, the international experience on this issue was explored. The analysis of the national literature conducted by the authors has shown the State’s annual increase in the number of students with special educational needs as well as the rapid demand of the labor market, influencing their professional self-determination in modern society. The participants from 5 State regions, including students, their parents, general secondary schools’ administration, and educators, as well as employers, took part in the study, considering the geographical location: south, north, west, center and the cities of republican significance. To ensure the validity of the study’s results, the triangulation method was utilized, including both qualitative and quantitative methods. The data were analyzed independently and compared with each other. Ethical principles were considered during all stages of the study. The characteristics of the system of career guidance in the modern school, the role, and the involvement of stakeholders in the system of career guidance, the opinions of educators on school students’ preparedness for career choice, and the factors impeding the effectiveness of career guidance in schools were examined. The problem of stakeholders’ disunity and inconsistency, causing the systemic labor market distortions, the growth of low-skilled labor and the unemployed, including people with special educational needs, were revealed. The other issue identified by the researchers was educators’ insufficient readiness for students’ career choice preparation in the context of inclusive education. To study cutting-edge experience in organizing a system of career guidance for young people and develop mechanisms coordinating the actions of all stakeholders in preparing students for career choice, the institutions of career guidance in France, Japan, and Germany were explored by the researchers. To achieve the aim of the Project, the systemic innovative Model of school students’ professional self-determination, considering their individual opportunities and special educational needs, has been developed based on the study results and international experience. The main principles of this Model are consistency, accessibility, inclusiveness, openness, coherence, and continuity. The perspectives of students’ career guidance development in the context of inclusive education have been suggested.

Keywords: career guidance, inclusive education, special educational needs, psychological and pedagogical support, model of school students’ professional self-determination

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Authors: Zeina Merabi, Arij Dao

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The temporal order of information processing in the brain is an important code in many acoustic signals, including speech, music, and animal vocalizations. Despite its significance, surprisingly little is known about its underlying cellular mechanisms and network manifestations. In the songbird telencephalic nucleus HVC, a subset of neurons shows temporal combination sensitivity (TCS). These neurons show a high temporal specificity, responding differently to distinct patterns of spectral elements and their combinations. HVC neuron types include basal-ganglia-projecting HVCX, forebrain-projecting HVCRA, and interneurons (HVC¬INT), each exhibiting distinct cellular, electrophysiological and functional properties. In this work, we develop conductance-based neural network models connecting the different classes of HVC neurons via different wiring scenarios, aiming to explore possible neural mechanisms that orchestrate the combination sensitivity property exhibited by HVCX, as well as replicating in vivo firing patterns observed when TCS neurons are presented with various auditory stimuli. The ionic and synaptic currents for each class of neurons that are presented in our networks and are based on pharmacological studies, rendering our networks biologically plausible. We present for the first time several realistic scenarios in which the different types of HVC neurons can interact to produce this behavior. The different networks highlight neural mechanisms that could potentially help to explain some aspects of combination sensitivity, including 1) interplay between inhibitory interneurons’ activity and the post inhibitory firing of the HVCX neurons enabled by T-type Ca2+ and H currents, 2) temporal summation of synaptic inputs at the TCS site of opposing signals that are time-and frequency- dependent, and 3) reciprocal inhibitory and excitatory loops as a potent mechanism to encode information over many milliseconds. The result is a plausible network model characterizing auditory processing in HVC. Our next step is to test the predictions of the model.

Keywords: combination sensitivity, songbirds, neural networks, spatiotemporal integration

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Authors: Samain Sabrin, Joshua Pratt, Joshua Bryk, Maryam Karimi

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Globally, extreme heat events have led to a surge in the number of heat-related moralities. These incidents are further exacerbated in high-density population centers due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Varieties of anthropogenic activities such as unsupervised land surface modifications, expansion of impervious areas, and lack of use of vegetation are all contributors to an increase in the amount of heat flux trapped by an urban canopy which intensifies the UHI effect. This project aims to propose a systematic approach to measure the impact of air quality and increased temperature based on urban morphology in the selected metropolitan cities. This project will measure the impact of build environment for urban and regional planning using human biometeorological evaluations (mean radiant temperature, Tmrt). We utilized the Rayman model (capable of calculating short and long wave radiation fluxes affecting the human body) to estimate the Tmrt in an urban environment incorporating location and height of buildings and trees as a supplemental tool in urban planning, and street design. Our current results suggest a strong correlation between building height and increased surface temperature in megacities. This model will help with; 1. Quantify the impacts of the built environment and surface properties on surrounding temperature, 2. Identify priority urban neighborhoods by analyzing Tmrt and air quality data at pedestrian level, 3. Characterizing the need for urban green infrastructure or better urban planning- maximizing the cooling benefit from existing Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI), and 4. Developing a hierarchy of streets for new UGI integration and propose new UGI based on site characteristics and cooling potential.

Keywords: air quality, heat mitigation, human-biometeorological indices, increased temperature, mean radiant temperature, radiation flux, sustainable development, thermal comfort, urban canopy, urban planning

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Authors: Showkat Ahmad Bhat, M. S. Bhatt

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The study evaluates the ex-post impact of institutional credit on agricultural output. It first examines the key factors that influence the accessibility of institutional credit by farm households. For quantitative analysis both program participant and non-participant respondents were drawn and cross-sectional survey data were collected from 412 households in Pulwama District of Jammu & Kashmir (India). Propensity Score Matching Method was employed to analyze the impact of the institutional credit on agricultural output. Results show that institutional credit has a positive and significant impact on the agricultural output measured in terms of farm income and crop productivity. To estimate the accessibility of credit, an examination of both demand side and supply side factors were carried out. The demand for credit was measured with respect to respondents who applied for credit. Supply side credit allocation measured in terms of the proportion of ‘credit amount’ farmers obtained. Logit and Two-limit Tobit Regression Models were used to investigate the determinants that influence the accessibility of formal credit for Demand for and supply of credit respectively. The estimated results suggested that the demand for credit is positively and significantly affected by the factors such as: age of the household head, formal education, membership, cash crop grown, farm size and saving account. All the variables were found significantly increasing the household’s likelihood to demand for and supply of credit from banks. However, the impact of these factors varies considerably across the credit markets. Factors which were found negatively and significantly influencing the accessibility of credit were: ‘square of the age’, household assets and rate of interest. The credit constraints analysis suggested that square of the age; household assets and rate of interest were the three most important factors that increased the probability of being constrained. The study finally discusses these results in detail and draws some recommendations.

Keywords: institutional credit, agriculture, propensity score matching logit model, Tobit model

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