Search results for: seismic hazard

Authors: Alfathony Krisnabudhi, Syahli Reza Ananda, M. Edo Marshal, M. Maaruf Mukti

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This study investigates the kinematics and basin development of pull-apart basin Sunda Strait based on palinspastic reconstructions of new acquired seismic reflection data to unravel hydrocarbon exploration opportunity in frontier area, fore-arc basin western Indonesia. We use more than 780 km seismic reflection data that cover whole basin. Structural patterns in Sunda Strait are dominated by northwest-southeast trending planar and listric-normal faults which appear to be graben and half-graben system. The main depocentre of this basin is East Semangko graben and West Semangko graben that are formed by overstepping of Sumatra Fault Zone and Ujungkulon Fault Zone. In father east, another depocentre is recognized as the Krakatau graben. The kinematic evolution started in Middle Miocene, characterized by the initiation of basement faulting with 0% to 7.00% extension. Deposition stratigraphic unit 1 and unit 2 started at 7.00% to 10.00% extension in Late Miocene and recognized as pre-transtensional deposit. The Plio-Pleistocene unit 3 and 4 were deposited as syn-transtensional deposit with 10.00% to 17.00% extension contemporaneously with the initiation of uplift NW-SE trending ridges due to the evolution of cross-basin fault in central basin and the development of en-echelon basin margin in a transtensional system. The control of sedimentation rate and basin subsidence cause the Neogene sediment to be very thick. We suggest that both controls allow thermal and pressure to generate hydrocarbon habitats in the pre-transtensional deposits. It is reinforced by stable kinematic evolution and interpretation of the deposition environment of pre-transtensional deposits that are deposited in the marine environment.

Keywords: kinematics, palinspastic, Sunda Strait, hydrocarbon exploration, fore-arc basin

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Authors: Abdel Hadi Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new extension of the Inverse Pareto distribution in the framework of Marshal-Olkin (1997) family of distributions. This model is capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure data. The statistical properties of the new model are discussed. Several methods are used to estimate the parameters involved. Explicit expressions are derived for different types of moments of value in reliability analysis are obtained. Besides, the order statistics of samples from the new proposed model have been studied. Finally, the usefulness of the new model for modeling reliability data is illustrated using two real data sets with simulation study.

Keywords: pareto distribution, marshal-Olkin, reliability, hazard functions, moments, estimation

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Authors: Go Bong Choi, Shin Je Lee, Sung Jin Yoo, Gibaek Lee, Jong Min Lee

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In South Korea, it is difficult to obtain data for statistical pipe assessment. In this paper, to address these issues, we find that various statistical model presented before is how data mixed with noise and are whether apply in South Korea. Three major type of model is studied and if data is presented in the paper, we add noise to data, which affects how model response changes. Moreover, we generate data from model in paper and analyse effect of noise. From this we can find robustness and applicability in Korea of each model.

Keywords: proportional hazard model, survival model, water main deterioration, ecological sciences

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Matt Stallwood, Michael Spearpoint

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In 2020, the UK government announced that sales of new petrol and diesel cars would end in 2030, and battery-powered cars made up 1 in 8 new cars sold in 2021 – more than the total from the previous five years. The guidance across the UK for the fire safety design of covered car parks is changing in response to the projected rapid growth in electric vehicle (EV) use. This paper discusses the current knowledge on the fire safety concerns posed by EVs, in particular those powered by lithium-ion batteries, when considering the likelihood of vehicle ignition, fire severity and spread of fire to other vehicles. The paper builds on previous work that has investigated the frequency of fires starting in cars powered by internal combustion engines (ICE), the hazard posed by such fires in covered car parks and the potential for neighboring vehicles to become involved in an incident. Historical data has been used to determine the ignition frequency of ICE car fires, whereas such data is scarce when it comes to EV fires. Should a fire occur, then the fire development has conventionally been assessed to match a ‘medium’ growth rate and to have a 95th percentile peak heat release of 9 MW. The paper examines recent literature in which researchers have measured the burning characteristics of EVs to assess whether these values need to be changed. These findings are used to assess the risk posed by EVs when compared to ICE vehicles. The paper examines what new design guidance is being issued by various organizations across the UK, such as fire and rescue services, insurers, local government bodies and regulators and discusses the impact these are having on the arrangement of parking bays, particularly in residential and mixed-use buildings. For example, the paper illustrates how updated guidance published by the Fire Protection Association (FPA) on the installation of sprinkler systems has increased the hazard classification of parking buildings that can have a considerable impact on the feasibility of a building to meet all its design intents when specifying water supply tanks. Another guidance on the provision of smoke ventilation systems and structural fire resistance is also presented. The paper points to where further research is needed on the fire safety risks posed by EVs in covered car parks. This will ensure that any guidance is commensurate with the need to provide an adequate level of life and property safety in the built environment.

Keywords: covered car parks, electric vehicles, fire safety, risk

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Authors: Getahun Nigusie Demise

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Background; antiretroviral treatment reduce HIV-related morbidity, and prolonged survival of patients however, there is lack of up-to-date information concerning the treatment long term effect on the survival of HIV positive children especially in the study area. Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the incidence and predictors of mortality among HIV positive children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in public hospitals of Harer town who were enrolled from 2011 to 2021. Methodology: Institution based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 429 HIV positive children enrolled in ART clinic from January 1st 2011 to December30th 2021. Data were collected from medical cards by using a data extraction form, Descriptive analyses were used to Summarized the results, and life table was used to estimate survival probability at specific point of time after introduction of ART. Kaplan Meier survival curve together with log rank test was used to compare survival between different categories of covariates, and Multivariate Cox-proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate adjusted Hazard rate. Variables with p-values ≤0.25 in bivariable analysis were candidates to the multivariable analysis. Finally, variables with p-values < 0.05 were considered as significant variables. Results: The study participants had followed for a total of 2549.6 child-years (30596 child months) with an overall mortality rate of 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1, 2.04) per 100 child-years. Their median survival time was 112 months (95% CI: 101–117). There were 38 children with unknown outcome, 39 deaths, and 55 children transfer out to different facility. The overall survival at 6, 12, 24, 48 months were 98%, 96%, 95%, 94% respectively. being in WHO clinical Stage four (AHR=4.55, 95% CI:1.36, 15.24), having anemia(AHR=2.56, 95% CI:1.11, 5.93), baseline low absolute CD4 count (AHR=2.95, 95% CI: 1.22, 7.12), stunting (AHR=4.1, 95% CI: 1.11, 15.42), wasting (AHR=4.93, 95% CI: 1.31, 18.76), poor adherence to treatment (AHR=3.37, 95% CI: 1.25, 9.11), having TB infection at enrollment (AHR=3.26, 95% CI: 1.25, 8.49),and no history of change their regimen(AHR=7.1, 95% CI: 2.74, 18.24), were independent predictors of death. Conclusion: more than half of death occurs within 2 years. Prevalent tuberculosis, anemia, wasting, and stunting nutritional status, socioeconomic factors, and baseline opportunistic infection were independent predictors of death. Increasing early screening and managing those predictors are required.

Keywords: human immunodeficiency virus-positive children, anti-retroviral therapy, survival, treatment, Ethiopia

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Authors: B. Neethu, Diptesh Das

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The present study investigates the performance of a semi-active controller using magneto-rheological dampers (MR) for seismic response reduction of a multi-span bridge. The application of structural control to the structures during earthquake excitation involves numerous challenges such as proper formulation and selection of the control strategy, mathematical modeling of the system, uncertainty in system parameters and noisy measurements. These problems, however, need to be tackled in order to design and develop controllers which will efficiently perform in such complex systems. A control algorithm, which can accommodate un-certainty and imprecision compared to all the other algorithms mentioned so far, due to its inherent robustness and ability to cope with the parameter uncertainties and imprecisions, is the sliding mode algorithm. A sliding mode control algorithm is adopted in the present study due to its inherent stability and distinguished robustness to system parameter variation and external disturbances. In general a semi-active control scheme using an MR damper requires two nested controllers: (i) an overall system controller, which derives the control force required to be applied to the structure and (ii) an MR damper voltage controller which determines the voltage required to be supplied to the damper in order to generate the desired control force. In the present study a sliding mode algorithm is used to determine the desired optimal force. The function of the voltage controller is to command the damper to produce the desired force. The clipped optimal algorithm is used to find the command voltage supplied to the MR damper which is regulated by a semi active control law based on sliding mode algorithm. The main objective of the study is to propose a robust semi active control which can effectively control the responses of the bridge under real earthquake ground motions. Lumped mass model of the bridge is developed and time history analysis is carried out by solving the governing equations of motion in the state space form. The effectiveness of MR dampers is studied by analytical simulations by subjecting the bridge to real earthquake records. In this regard, it may also be noted that the performance of controllers depends, to a great extent, on the characteristics of the input ground motions. Therefore, in order to study the robustness of the controller in the present study, the performance of the controllers have been investigated for fourteen different earthquake ground motion records. The earthquakes are chosen in such a way that all possible characteristic variations can be accommodated. Out of these fourteen earthquakes, seven are near-field and seven are far-field. Also, these earthquakes are divided into different frequency contents, viz, low-frequency, medium-frequency, and high-frequency earthquakes. The responses of the controlled bridge are compared with the responses of the corresponding uncontrolled bridge (i.e., the bridge without any control devices). The results of the numerical study show that the sliding mode based semi-active control strategy can substantially reduce the seismic responses of the bridge showing a stable and robust performance for all the earthquakes.

Keywords: bridge, semi active control, sliding mode control, MR damper

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Authors: A. V. Harutyunyan

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The investigation results of rocks at high pressures and temperatures have revealed the intervals of changes of seismic waves and density, as well as some processes taking place in rocks. In the serpentinized rocks, as a consequence of dehydration, abrupt changes in seismic waves and density have been recorded. Hydrogen-bearing components are released which combine with carbon-bearing components. As a result, hydrocarbons formed. The investigated samples are smelted. Then, geofluids and hydrocarbons migrate into the upper horizons of the Earth crust by the deep faults. Then their differentiation and accumulation in the jointed rocks of the faults and in the layers with collecting properties takes place. Under the majority of the hydrocarbon deposits, at a certain depth, magmatic centers and deep faults are recorded. The investigation results of the serpentinized rocks with numerous geological-geophysical factual data allow understanding that hydrocarbons are mainly formed in both the offshore part of the ocean and at different depths of the continental crust. Experiments have also shown that the dehydration of the serpentinized rocks is accompanied by an explosion with the instantaneous increase in pressure and temperature and smelting the studied rocks. According to numerous publications, hydrocarbons and diamonds are formed in the upper part of the mantle, at the depths of 200-400km, and as a consequence of geodynamic processes, they rise to the upper horizons of the Earth crust through narrow channels. However, the genesis of metamorphogenic diamonds and the diamonds found in the lava streams formed within the Earth crust, remains unclear. As at dehydration, super high pressures and temperatures arise. It is assumed that diamond crystals are formed from carbon containing components present in the dehydration zone. It can be assumed that besides the explosion at dehydration, secondary explosions of the released hydrogen take place. The process is naturally accompanied by seismic phenomena, causing earthquakes of different magnitudes on the surface. As for the diamondiferous kimberlites, it is well-known that the majority of them are located within the ancient shield and platforms not obligatorily connected with the deep faults. The kimberlites are formed at the shallow location of dehydrated masses in the Earth crust. Kimberlites are younger in respect of containing ancient rocks containing serpentinized bazites and ultrbazites of relicts of the paleooceanic crust. Sometimes, diamonds containing water and hydrocarbons showing their simultaneous genesis are found. So, the geofluids, hydrocarbons and diamonds, according to the new concept put forward, are formed simultaneously from serpentinized rocks as a consequence of their dehydration at different depths of the Earth crust. Based on the concept proposed by us, we suggest discussing the following: -Genesis of gigantic hydrocarbon deposits located in the offshore area of oceans (North American, Mexican Gulf, Cuanza-Kamerunian, East Brazilian etc.) as well as in the continental parts of different mainlands (Kanadian-Arctic Caspian, East Siberian etc.) - Genesis of metamorphogenic diamonds and diamonds in the lava streams (Guinea-Liberian, Kokchetav, Kanadian, Kamchatka-Tolbachinian, etc.).

Keywords: dehydration, diamonds, hydrocarbons, serpentinites

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Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

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To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: manufacturing management, risk, risk management, SMEs

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Authors: Luis Reynaldo Mota-Santiago, Angélica Lozano

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Determining appropriate measures to face earthquakesarea challenge for practitioners. In the literature, some analyses consider disaster scenarios, disregarding some important field characteristics. Sometimes, software that allows estimating the number of victims and infrastructure damages is used. Other times historical information of previous events is used, or the scenarios’informationis assumed to be available even if it isnot usual in practice. Humanitarian operations start immediately after an earthquake strikes, and the first hours in relief efforts are important; local efforts are critical to assess the situation and deliver relief supplies to the victims. A preparation action is prepositioning stockpiles, most of them at central warehouses placed away from damage-prone areas, which requires large size facilities and budget. Usually, decisions in the first 12 hours (standard relief time (SRT)) after the disaster are the location of temporary depots and the design of distribution paths. The motivation for this research was the delay in the reaction time of the early relief efforts generating the late arrival of aid to some areas after the Mexico City 7.1 magnitude earthquake in 2017. Hence, a preparation approach for planning the immediate response to earthquake disasters is proposed, intended for local governments, considering their capabilities for planning and for responding during the SRT, in order to reduce the start-up time of immediate response operations in urban areas. The first steps are the generation and analysis of disaster scenarios, which allow estimatethe relief demand before and in the early hours after an earthquake. The scenarios can be based on historical data and/or the seismic hazard analysis of an Atlas of Natural Hazards and Risk as a way to address the limited or null available information.The following steps include the decision processes for: a) locating local depots (places to prepositioning stockpiles)and aid-giving facilities at closer places as possible to risk areas; and b) designing the vehicle paths for aid distribution (from local depots to the aid-giving facilities), which can be used at the beginning of the response actions. This approach allows speeding up the delivery of aid in the early moments of the emergency, which could reduce the suffering of the victims allowing additional time to integrate a broader and more streamlined response (according to new information)from national and international organizations into these efforts. The proposed approachis applied to two case studies in Mexico City. These areas were affectedby the 2017’s earthquake, having limited aid response. The approach generates disaster scenarios in an easy way and plans a faster early response with a short quantity of stockpiles which can be managed in the early hours of the emergency by local governments. Considering long-term storage, the estimated quantities of stockpiles require a limited budget to maintain and a small storage space. These stockpiles are useful also to address a different kind of emergencies in the area.

Keywords: disaster logistics, early response, generation of disaster scenarios, preparation phase

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Authors: Arianna Nativio, Zoran Kapelan, Jan Peter van der Hoek

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Bio-composite materials are becoming increasingly popular in various applications, such as the automotive industry. Usually, bio-composite materials are made from natural resources recovered from plants, now, a new type of bio-composite material has begun to be produced in the Netherlands. This material is made from resources recovered from drinking water treatments (calcite), wastewater treatment (cellulose), and material from surface water management (aquatic plants). Surface water, raw drinking water, and wastewater can be contaminated with pathogens and chemical compounds. Therefore, it would be valuable to develop a framework to assess, monitor, and control the potential risks. Indeed, the goal is to define the major risks in terms of human health, quality of materials, and environment associated with the production and application of these new materials. This study describes the general risk assessment framework, starting with a qualitative risk assessment. The qualitative risk analysis was carried out by using the HAZOP methodology for the hazard identification phase. The HAZOP methodology is logical and structured and able to identify the hazards in the first stage of the design when hazards and associated risks are not well known. The identified hazards were analyzed to define the potential associated risks, and then these were evaluated by using the qualitative Event Tree Analysis. ETA is a logical methodology used to define the consequences for a specific hazardous incidents, evaluating the failure modes of safety barriers and dangerous intermediate events that lead to the final scenario (risk). This paper shows the effectiveness of combining of HAZOP and qualitative ETA methodologies for hazard identification and risk mapping. Then, key risks were identified, and a quantitative framework was developed based on the type of risks identified, such as QMRA and QCRA. These two models were applied to assess human health risks due to the presence of pathogens and chemical compounds such as heavy metals into the bio-composite materials. Thus, due to these contaminations, the bio-composite product, during its application, might release toxic substances into the environment leading to a negative environmental impact. Therefore, leaching tests are going to be planned to simulate the application of these materials into the environment and evaluate the potential leaching of inorganic substances, assessing environmental risk.

Keywords: bio-composite, risk assessment, water reuse, resource recovery

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Authors: Gyan Shrivastava

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Civil Engineering education, at undergraduate and graduate levels, commenced at the University of the West Indies (UWI) in 1961, in collaboration with Imperial College in London. From its inception, it has concentrated on natural hazard resistant design of structures, given the occurrence of earthquakes, hurricanes and volcanic eruption in the Commonwealth Caribbean Islands. Against this background, a number of international students, from Botswana, Canada, Germany, India, Nigeria and South Africa, have studied Civil Engineering at UWI over the years. This paper outlines the author’s experience in teaching Fluid Mechanics and Engineering design to the said students, and in so doing highlights their strengths and weaknesses.

Keywords: Caribbean, civil engineering, education, natural hazards

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Authors: Yassine Sadji

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Some architectural conditions required some shapes often lead to an irregular distribution of masses, rigidities, and resistances. The main object of the present study consists in estimating the influence of the irregularity both in plan and in elevation which presenting some structures on the dynamic characteristics and his influence on the behavior of this structures. To do this, it is necessary to make apply both dynamic methods proposed by the RPA99 (spectral modal method and method of analysis by accélérogramme) on certain similar prototypes and to analyze the parameters measuring the answer of these structures and to proceed to a comparison of the results.

Keywords: irregularity, seismic, response, structure, ductility

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Authors: Soheil Sobhanardakani, Seyed Vali Hosseini, Lima Tayebi

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The presence of heavy metals in the environment could constitute a hazard to food security and public health. These can be accumulated in aquatic animals such as fish. Samples of four popular brands of canned fish in the Iranian market (yellowfin tuna, common Kilka, Kawakawa, and longtail tuna) were analyzed for level of Cr after wet digestion with acids using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The mean concentrations for Cr in the different brands were: 2.57, 3.24, 3.16, and 1.65 μg/g for brands A, B, C, and D respectively. Significant differences were observed in the Cr levels between all of the different brands of canned fish evaluated in this study. The Cr concentrations for the varieties of canned fishes were generally within the FAO/WHO, U.S. FDA, and U.S. EPA recommended limits for fish.

Keywords: heavy metals, essential metals, canned fish, food security

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Authors: Sukru Merey, Caglar Sinayuc

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Gas hydrate deposits which are found in deep ocean sediments and in permafrost regions are supposed to be a fossil fuel reserve for the future. The Black Sea is also considered rich in terms of gas hydrates. It abundantly contains gas hydrates as methane (CH₄~80 to 99.9%) source. In this study, by using the literature, seismic and other data of the Black Sea such as salinity, porosity of the sediments, common gas type, temperature distribution and pressure gradient, the optimum gas production method for the Black Sea gas hydrates was selected as mainly depressurization method. Numerical simulations were run to analyze gas production from gas hydrate deposited in turbidites in the Black Sea by depressurization.

Keywords: CH4 hydrate, Black Sea hydrates, gas hydrate experiments, HydrateResSim

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Authors: S. Iffat, B. Bose

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Concrete as a construction material is versatile because it displays high degree of fire-resistance. Concrete’s inherent ability to combat one of the most devastating disaster that a structure can endure in its lifetime, can be attributed to its constituent materials which make it inert and have relatively poor thermal conductivity. However, concrete structures must be designed for fire effects. Structural components should be able to withstand dead and live loads without undergoing collapse. The properties of high-strength concrete must be weighed against concerns about its fire resistance and susceptibility to spalling at elevated temperatures. In this paper, the causes, effects and some remedy of deterioration in concrete due to fire hazard will be discussed. Some cost effective solutions to produce a fire resistant concrete will be conversed through this paper.

Keywords: concrete, fire, spalling, temperature, compressive strength, density

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Authors: Chui-Hsin Chen, Yu-Ting Chen

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Special concentrically braced frames is one of the seismic load resisting systems, which dissipates seismic energy when bracing members within the frames undergo yielding and buckling while sustaining their axial tension and compression load capacities. Most of the inelastic deformation of a buckling bracing member concentrates in the mid-length region. While experiencing cyclic loading, the region dissipates most of the seismic energy being input into the frame. Such a concentration makes the braces vulnerable to failure modes associated with low-cycle fatigue. In this research, a strategy to improve the cyclic behavior of the conventional steel bracing member is proposed by filling the Hollow Structural Shape (HSS) member with reinforcement. It prevents the local section from concentrating large plastic deformation caused by cyclic loading. The infill helps spread over the plastic hinge region into a wider area hence postpone the initiation of local buckling or even the rupture of the braces. The finite element method is introduced to simulate the complicated bracing member behavior and member-versus-infill interaction under cyclic loading. Fifteen 3-D-element-based models are built by ABAQUS software. The verification of the FEM model is done with unreinforced (UR) HSS bracing members’ cyclic test data and aluminum honeycomb plates’ bending test data. Numerical models include UR and filled HSS bracing members with various compactness ratios based on the specification of AISC-2016 and AISC-1989. The primary variables to be investigated include the relative bending stiffness and the material of the filling reinforcement. The distributions of von Mises stress and equivalent plastic strain (PEEQ) are used as indices to tell the strengths and shortcomings of each model. The result indicates that the change of relative bending stiffness of the infill is much more influential than the change of material in use to increase the energy dissipation capacity. Strengthen the relative bending stiffness of the reinforcement results in additional energy dissipation capacity to the extent of 24% and 46% in model based on AISC-2016 (16-series) and AISC-1989 (89-series), respectively. HSS members with infill show growth in 𝜂Local Buckling, normalized energy cumulated until the happening of local buckling, comparing to UR bracing members. The 89-series infill-reinforced members have more energy dissipation capacity than unreinforced 16-series members by 117% to 166%. The flexural rigidity of infills should be less than 29% and 13% of the member section itself for 16-series and 89-series bracing members accordingly, thereby guaranteeing the spread over of the plastic hinge and the happening of it within the reinforced section. If the parameters are properly configured, the ductility, energy dissipation capacity, and fatigue-life of HSS SCBF bracing members can be improved prominently by the infill-reinforced method.

Keywords: special concentrically braced frames, HSS, cyclic loading, infill reinforcement, finite element analysis, PEEQ

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Authors: Xin Jiao, Xin Zhang, Jian Fan, Zhenwei Cai, Yiming Xu

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Tower cranes play a crucial role in the construction industry, facilitating the vertical and horizontal movement of materials and aiding in building construction, especially for high-rise structures. However, tower crane accidents can lead to severe consequences, highlighting the importance of effective safety management and inspection. This paper presents an innovative approach to tower crane inspection utilizing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and an Intelligent Inspection APP System. The system leverages UAVs equipped with high-definition cameras to conduct efficient and comprehensive inspections, reducing manual labor, inspection time, and risk. By integrating advanced technologies such as Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning and digital image processing, the system enables precise route planning and collection of safety hazards images. A case study conducted on a construction site demonstrates the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method, showcasing its potential to enhance tower crane safety. On-site testing of UAV intelligent inspections reveals key findings: efficient tower crane hazard inspection within 30 minutes, with a full-identification capability coverage rates of 76.3%, 64.8%, and 76.2% for major, significant, and general hazards respectively and a preliminary-identification capability coverage rates of 18.5%, 27.2%, and 19%, respectively. Notably, UAVs effectively identify various tower crane hazards, except for those requiring auditory detection. The limitations of this study primarily involve two aspects: Firstly, during the initial inspection, manual drone piloting is required for marking tower crane points, followed by automated flight inspections and reuse based on the marked route. Secondly, images captured by the drone necessitate manual identification and review, which can be time-consuming for equipment management personnel, particularly when dealing with a large volume of images. Subsequent research efforts will focus on AI training and recognition of safety hazard images, as well as the automatic generation of inspection reports and corrective management based on recognition results. The ongoing development in this area is currently in progress, and outcomes will be released at an appropriate time.

Keywords: tower crane, inspection, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), intelligent inspection app system, safety management

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Authors: Mohsen Tehranizadeh, Mahboobe Forghani

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The impact of higher modes on the seismic response of dual structural system consist of concrete moment-resisting frame and with RC shear walls is investigated against near-field earthquakes in this paper. a 20 stories reinforced concrete shear wall-special moment frame structure is designed in accordance with ASCE7 requirements and The nonlinear model of the structure was performed on OpenSees platform. Nonlinear time history dynamic analysis with 3 near-field records are performed on them. In order to further understand the structural collapse behavior in the near field, the response of the structure at the moment of collapse especially the formation of plastic hinges is explored. The results revealed that the amplification of moment at top of the wall due to higher modes, the plastic hinge can form in the upper part of wall, even when designed and detailed for plastic hinging at the base only (according to ACI code).on the other hand, shear forces in excess of capacity design values can develop due to the contribution of the higher modes of vibration to dynamic response due to the near field can cause brittle shear or sliding failure modes. The past investigation on shear walls clearly shows the dual-hinge design concept is effective at reducing the effects of the second mode of response. An advantage of the concept is that, when combined with capacity design, it can result in relaxation of special reinforcing detailing in large portions of the wall. In this study, to investigate the implications of multi-design approach, 4 models with varies arrangement of hinge plastics at the base and height of the shear wall are considered. results base on time history analysis showed that the dual or multi plastic hinges approach can be useful in order to control the high moment and shear demand of higher mode effect.

Keywords: higher mode effect, Near-field earthquake, nonlinear time history analysis, multi plastic hinge design

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Authors: Damian Czubak

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The Białowieża Forest is a very valuable natural area, included in the World Natural Heritage at UNESCO, where, due to infestation by the bark beetle (Ips typographus), norway spruce (Picea abies) have deteriorated. This catastrophic scenario led to an increase in fire danger. This was due to the occurrence of large amounts of dead wood and grass cover, as light penetrated to the bottom of the stands. These factors in a dry state are materials that favour the possibility of fire and the rapid spread of fire. One of the objectives of the study was to monitor the quantitative and qualitative changes of combustible material on the permanent decay plots of spruce stands from 2012-2022. In addition, the size of the area with highly flammable vegetation was monitored and a classification of the stands of the Białowieża Forest by flammability classes was made. The key factor that determines the potential fire hazard of a forest is combustible material. Primarily its type, quantity, moisture content, size and spatial structure. Based on the inventory data on the areas of forest districts in the Białowieża Forest, the average fire load and its changes over the years were calculated. The analysis was carried out taking into account the changes in the health status of the stands and sanitary operations. The quantitative and qualitative assessment of fallen timber and fire load of ground cover used the results of the 2019 and 2021 inventories. Approximately 9,000 circular plots were used for the study. An assessment was made of the amount of potential fuel, understood as ground cover vegetation and dead wood debris. In addition, monitoring of areas with vegetation that poses a high fire risk was conducted using data from 2019 and 2021. All sub-areas were inventoried where vegetation posing a specific fire hazard represented at least 10% of the area with species characteristic of that cover. In addition to the size of the area with fire-prone vegetation, a very important element is the size of the fire load on the indicated plots. On representative plots, the biomass of the land cover was measured on an area of 10 m2 and then the amount of biomass of each component was determined. The resulting element of variability of ground covers in stands was their flammability classification. The classification developed made it possible to track changes in the flammability classes of stands over the period covered by the measurements.

Keywords: classification, combustible material, flammable vegetation, Norway spruce

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Authors: Suzana Leitão Russo, Mayara Laysa de Oliveira Silva, José Augusto Andrade Filho, Vitor Hugo Simon

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Currently, seismic methods and prospecting methods are commonly applied in the oil industry and, according to the information reported every day; oil is a source of non-renewable energy. It is easier to understand why the ownership of areas of oil extraction is coveted by many nations. It is necessary to think about ways that will enable the maximization of oil production. The technique of spectral analysis can be used to analyze the behavior of the variables already defined in oil well the profile. The main objective is to verify the series dependence of variables, and to model the variables using the frequency domain to observe the model residuals.

Keywords: oil, well, spectral analysis, oil extraction

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Authors: Ayshan Gurbanova

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Despite based on the fact that drill bit which is the smallest part of bottom hole assembly costs only in between 10% and 15% of the total expenses made, they are the first equipment that is in contact with the formation itself. Hence, it is consequential to choose the appropriate type and dimension of drilling bit, which will prevent majority of problems by not demanding many tripping procedure. However, within the advance in technology, it is now seamless to be beneficial in the terms of many concepts such as subsequent time of operation, energy, expenditure, power and so forth. With the intention of applying the method to Azerbaijan, the field of Shallow Water Absheron Peninsula has been suggested, where the mainland has been located 15 km away from the wildcat wells, named as “NKX01”. It has the water depth of 22 m as indicated. In 2015 and 2016, the seismic survey analysis of 2D and 3D have been conducted in contract area as well as onshore shallow water depth locations. With the aim of indicating clear elucidation, soil stability, possible submersible dangerous scenarios, geohazards and bathymetry surveys have been carried out as well. Within the seismic analysis results, the exact location of exploration wells have been determined and along with this, the correct measurement decisions have been made to divide the land into three productive zones. In the term of the method, Electric Impulse Technology (EIT) is based on discharge energies of electricity within the corrosivity in rock. Take it simply, the highest value of voltages could be created in the less range of nano time, where it is sent to the rock through electrodes’ baring as demonstrated below. These electrodes- higher voltage powered and grounded are placed on the formation which could be obscured in liquid. With the design, it is more seamless to drill horizontal well based on the advantage of loose contact of formation. There is also no chance of worn ability as there are no combustion, mechanical power exist. In the case of energy, the usage of conventional drilling accounts for 1000 𝐽/𝑐𝑚3 , where this value accounts for between 100 and 200 𝐽/𝑐𝑚3 in EIT. Last but not the least, from the test analysis, it has been yielded that it achieves the value of ROP more than 2 𝑚/ℎ𝑟 throughout 15 days. Taking everything into consideration, it is such a fact that with the comparison of data analysis, this method is highly applicable to the fields of Azerbaijan.

Keywords: drilling, drill bit cost, efficiency, cost

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Authors: Padma Chutoo, Elena Kulinskaya, Ilyas Bakbergenuly, Nicholas Steel, Dmitri Pchejetski

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Transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) are warning signs for future strokes. TIA patients are at increased risk of stroke and cardio-vascular events after a first episode. A majority of studies on TIA focused on the occurrence of these ancillary events after a TIA. Long-term mortality after TIA received only limited attention. We undertook this study to determine the long-term hazards of all-cause mortality following a first episode of a TIA using anonymised electronic health records (EHRs). We used a retrospective case-control study using electronic primary health care records from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database. Patients born prior to or in year 1960, resident in England, with a first diagnosis of TIA between January 1986 and January 2017 were matched to three controls on age, sex and general medical practice. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The hazards of all-cause mortality were estimated using a time-varying Weibull-Cox survival model which included both scale and shape effects and a random frailty effect of GP practice. 20,633 cases and 58,634 controls were included. Cases aged 39 to 60 years at the first TIA event had the highest hazard ratio (HR) of mortality compared to matched controls (HR = 3.04, 95% CI (2.91 - 3.18)). The HRs for cases aged 61-70 years, 71-76 years and 77+ years were 1.98 (1.55 - 2.30), 1.79 (1.20 - 2.07) and 1.52 (1.15 - 1.97) compared to matched controls. Aspirin provided long-term survival benefits to cases. Cases aged 39-60 years on aspirin had HR of 0.93 (0.84 - 1.00), 0.90 (0.82 - 0.98) and 0.88 (0.80 - 0.96) at 5 years, 10 years and 15 years, respectively, compared to cases in the same age group who were not on antiplatelets. Similar beneficial effects of aspirin were observed in other age groups. There were no significant survival benefits with other antiplatelet options. No survival benefits of antiplatelet drugs were observed in controls. Our study highlights the excess long-term risk of death of TIA patients and cautions that TIA should not be treated as a benign condition. The study further recommends aspirin as the better option for secondary prevention for TIA patients compared to clopidogrel recommended by NICE guidelines. Management of risk factors and treatment strategies should be important challenges to reduce the burden of disease.

Keywords: dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), General Practice, Multiple Imputation, The Health Improvement Network(THIN), hazard ratio (HR), Weibull-Cox model

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Authors: Elise M. Shauf

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Beryllium can be found naturally in some fruits and vegetables (carrots, garden peas, kidney beans, pears) at very low concentrations, but is typically not clinically significant due to the low-level exposure and limited absorption of beryllium by the stomach and intestines. However, acute or chronic beryllium exposure can result in harmful toxic and carcinogenic biological effects. Beryllium can be both a workplace hazard and an environmental pollutant, therefore determining the presence of beryllium at trace levels can be essential to protect workers as well as the environment. Analysis of gallein, C₂₀H₁₂O₇, to determine if it is usable as a fluorescent dye for beryllium detection. The primary detection method currently in use includes hydroxybenzoquinoline sulfonates (HBQS), for which alternative indicators are desired. Unfortunately, gallein does not have the desired aspects needed as a dye for beryllium detection due to the peak shift properties.

Keywords: beryllium detection, fluorescent, gallein dye, indicator, spectroscopy

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Authors: Rao Singh Priyanka, Jayangondaperumal R.

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The Himalayan active fault has the potential to generate great earthquakes in the future, posing a biggest existential threat to humans in the Himalayan and adjacent region. Quantitative evaluation of accumulated and released interseismic strain is crucial to assess the magnitude and spatio-temporal variability of future great earthquakes along the Himalayan arc. To mitigate the destruction and hazards associated with such earthquakes, it is important to understand their recurrence cycle. The eastern Himalayan and Indo-Burman plate boundary systems offers an oblique convergence across two orthogonal plate boundaries, resulting in a zone of distributed deformation both within and away from the plate boundary and clockwise rotation of fault-bounded blocks. This seismically active region has poorly documented historical archive of the past large earthquakes. Thus, paleoseismologicalstudies confirm the surface rupture evidences of the great continental earthquakes (Mw ≥ 8) along the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT), which along with the Geodetic studies, collectively provide the crucial information to understand and assess the seismic potential. These investigations reveal the rupture of 3/4th of the HFT during great events since medieval time but with debatable opinions for the timing of events due to unclear evidences, ignorance of transverse segment boundaries, and lack of detail studies. Recent paleoseismological investigations in the eastern Himalaya and Mishmi ranges confirms the primary surface ruptures of the 1950 C.E. great earthquake (M>8). However, a seismic gap exists between the 1714 C.E. and 1950 C.E. Assam earthquakes that did not slip since 1697 C.E. event. Unlike the latest large blind 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8), the 1950 C.E. event is not triggered by a large event of 1947 C.E. that occurred near the western edge of the great upper Assam event. Moreover, the western segment of the eastern Himalayadid not witness any surface breaking earthquake along the HFT for over the past 300 yr. The frontal fault excavations reveal that during the 1950 earthquake, ~3.1-m-high scarp along the HFT was formed due to the co-seismic slip of 5.5 ± 0.7 m at Pasighat in the Eastern Himalaya and a 10-m-high-scarp at a Kamlang Nagar along the Mishmi Thrust in the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis is an outcome of a dip-slip displacement of 24.6 ± 4.6 m along a 25 ± 5°E dipping fault. This event has ruptured along the two orthogonal fault systems in the form of oblique thrust fault mechanism. Approx. 130 km west of Pasighat site, the Himebasti village has witnessed two earthquakes, the historical 1697 Sadiya earthquake, and the 1950 event, with a cumulative dip-slip displacement of 15.32 ± 4.69 m. At Niglok site, Arunachal Pradesh, a cumulative slip of ~12.82 m during at least three events since pre 19585 B.P. has produced ~6.2-m high scarp while the youngest scarp of ~2.4-m height has been produced during 1697 C.E. The site preserves two deformational events along the eastern HFT, providing an idea of last serial ruptures at an interval of ~850 yearswhile the successive surface rupturing earthquakes lacks in the Mishmi Range to estimate the recurrence cycle.

Keywords: paleoseismology, surface rupture, recurrence interval, Eastern Himalaya

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Authors: Kinjal Parmar, Matteo Lelli

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The usage of IoT technology as a rockfall alert system is relatively new. This paper explains the potential of such an alert system called HelloMac from Maccaferri which provides transportation infrastructure asset owners the way to effectively utilize their resources in the detection of boulder impacts on rockfall barriers. This would ensure a faster assessment of the impacted barrier and subsequently facilitates the implementation of remedial works in an effective and timely manner. In addition, the HelloMac can also be integrated with another warning system to alert vehicle users of the unseen dangers ahead. HelloMac is developed to work also in remote areas, where cell coverage is not available. User gets notified when a rockfall even occurs via mobile app, SMS and email. Using such alarming systems effectively, we can reduce the risk of rockfall hazard.

Keywords: rockfall, barrier, HelloMac, rockfall alert system

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Authors: Caglayan Hizal, Kutay Yuceturk, Ertugrul Turker Uzun, Hasan Ceylan, Engin Aktas, Gursoy Turan

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Monitoring concepts for structural systems have been investigated by researchers for decades since such tools are quite convenient to determine intervention planning of structures. Despite the considerable development in this regard, the efficient use of monitoring data in reliability assessment, and prediction models are still in need of improvement in their efficiency. More specifically, reliability-based seismic risk assessment of engineering structures may play a crucial role in the post-earthquake decision-making process for the structures. After an earthquake, professionals could identify heavily damaged structures based on visual observations. Among these, it is hard to identify the ones with minimum signs of damages, even if they would experience considerable structural degradation. Besides, visual observations are open to human interpretations, which make the decision process controversial, and thus, less reliable. In this context, when a continuous monitoring system has been previously installed on the corresponding structure, this decision process might be completed rapidly and with higher confidence by means of the observed data. At this stage, the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) procedure has an important role since it can make it possible to estimate the system reliability based on a recursively updated mathematical model. Therefore, integrating an SHM procedure into the reliability assessment process comes forward as an important challenge due to the arising uncertainties for the updated model in case of the environmental, material and earthquake induced changes. In this context, this study presents a case study on SHM-integrated reliability assessment of the continuously monitored progressively damaged systems. The objective of this study is to get instant feedback on the current state of the structure after an extreme event, such as earthquakes, by involving the observed data rather than the visual inspections. Thus, the decision-making process after such an event can be carried out on a rational basis. In the near future, this can give wing to the design of self-reported structures which can warn about its current situation after an extreme event.

Keywords: condition assessment, vibration-based SHM, reliability analysis, seismic risk assessment

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Authors: Beciri Mohamed Walid

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Some architectural conditions required some shapes often lead to an irregular distribution of masses, rigidities and resistances. The main object of the present study consists in estimating the influence of the irregularity both in plan and in elevation which presenting some structures on the dynamic characteristics and his influence on the behavior of this structures. To do this, it is necessary to make apply both dynamic methods proposed by the RPA99 (spectral modal method and method of analysis by accelerogram) on certain similar prototypes and to analyze the parameters measuring the answer of these structures and to proceed to a comparison of the results.

Keywords: structure, irregular, code, seismic, method, force, period

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Authors: M. Belén Prendes-Gero, Celestino González-Nicieza, M. Inmaculada Alvarez-Fernández

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Roof collapse is one of the problems with a higher frequency in most of the mines of all countries, even now. There are many reasons that may cause the roof to collapse, namely the mine stress activities in the mining process, the lack of vigilance and carelessness or the complexity of the geological structure and irregular operations. This work is the result of the analysis of one accident produced in the “Mary” coal exploitation located in northern Spain. In this accident, the roof of a crossroad of excavated galleries to exploit the “Morena” Layer, 700 m deep, collapsed. In the paper, the work done by the forensic team to determine the causes of the incident, its conclusions and recommendations are collected. Initially, the available documentation (geology, geotechnics, mining, etc.) and accident area were reviewed. After that, laboratory and on-site tests were carried out to characterize the behaviour of the rock materials and the support used (metal frames and shotcrete). With this information, different hypotheses of failure were simulated to find the one that best fits reality. For this work, the software of finite differences in three dimensions, FLAC 3D, was employed. The results of the study confirmed that the detachment was originated as a consequence of one sliding in the layer wall, due to the large roof span present in the place of the accident, and probably triggered as a consequence of the existence of a protection pillar insufficient. The results allowed to establish some corrective measures avoiding future risks. For example, the dimensions of the protection zones that must be remained unexploited and their interaction with the crossing areas between galleries, or the use of more adequate supports for these conditions, in which the significant deformations may discourage the use of rigid supports such as shotcrete. At last, a grid of seismic control was proposed as a predictive system. Its efficiency was tested along the investigation period employing three control equipment that detected new incidents (although smaller) in other similar areas of the mine. These new incidents show that the use of explosives produces vibrations which are a new risk factor to analyse in a next future.

Keywords: forensic analysis, hypothesis modelling, roof failure, seismic monitoring

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Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, E. Pelli, M. Panoutsopoulou, V. Abramea

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Worldwide there is a growing recognition that education is a critical component of any disaster impacts reduction effort and a great challenge too. Given this challenge, a broad range of awareness raising projects at all levels are implemented and are continuously evaluated by Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (EPPO). This paper presents an overview of EPPO educational initiative (seminars, lectures, workshops, campaigns and educational material) and its evaluation results. The abovementioned initiative is focused to aware the public, train teachers and civil protection staff, inform students and educate people with disabilities on subjects related to earthquake reduction issues. The better understating of how human activity can link to disaster and what can be done at the individual, family or workplace level to contribute to seismic reduction are the main issues of EPPO projects. Survey results revealed that a high percentage of teachers (included the ones of special schools) from all over the country have taken the appropriate preparedness measures at schools. On the other hand, the implementation of earthquake preparedness measures at various workplaces (kindergartens, banks, utilities etc.) has still significant room for improvement. Results show that the employees in banks and public utilities have substantially higher rates in preventive and preparedness actions in their workplaces than workers in kindergartens and other workplaces. One of the EPPO educational priorities is to enhance earthquake preparedness of people with disabilities. Booklets, posters and applications have been created with the financial support of the Council of Europe, addressed to people who have mobility impairments, learning difficulties or cognitive disability (ή intellectual disabilities). Part of the educational material was developed using the «easy-to-read» method and Makaton language program with the collaboration of experts on special needs education and teams of people with cognitive disability. Furthermore, earthquake safety seminars and earthquake drills have been implemented in order to develop children’s, parents’ and teachers abilities and skills on earthquake impacts reduction. To enhance the abovementioned efforts, EPPO is a partner at prevention and preparedness projects supported by EU Civil Protection Financial Instrument. One of them is E-PreS’ project (Monitoring and Evaluation of Natural Hazard Preparedness at School Environment). The main objectives of E-PreS project are: 1) to create smart tools which define, simulate and evaluate drills procedure at schools, centers of vocational training of people with disabilities or other workplaces, and 2) to involve students or adults with disabilities in the E-PreS system evacuation procedure in case of earthquake, flood, or volcanic occurrence. Two other EU projects (RACCE educational kit and EVANDE educational platform) are also with the aim of contributing to raising awareness among people with disabilities, students, teachers, volunteers etc. It is worth mentioning that even though in Greece many efforts have been done till now to build awareness towards earthquakes and establish preparedness status for prospective earthquakes, there are still actions to be taken.

Keywords: earthquake, emergency plans, E-PreS project, people with disabilities, special needs education

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