Search results for: generalised extreme value distribution

Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio

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The earth system is subject to a wide range of human activities that have changed the ecosystem more rapidly and extensively in the last five decades. These global changes have a large impact on human health. The relationship between extreme weather events and mortality are widely documented in different studies. In particular, a number of studies have investigated the relationship between climatological variations and the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The researchers have become interested in the evaluation of the effect of environmental variations on the occurrence of different diseases (such as infarction, ischemic heart disease, asthma, respiratory problems, etc.) and mortality. Among changes in weather conditions, the heat waves have been used for investigating the association between weather conditions and cardiovascular events and cerebrovascular, using thermal indices, which combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The effects of heat waves on human health are mainly found in the urban areas and they are aggravated by the presence of atmospheric pollution. The consequences of these changes for human health are of growing concern. In particular, meteorological conditions are one of the environmental aspects because cardiovascular diseases are more common among the elderly population, and such people are more sensitive to weather changes. In addition, heat waves, or extreme heat events, are predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration with climate change. In this context, are very important public health and climate change connections increasingly being recognized by the medical research, because these might help in informing the public at large. Policy experts claim that a growing awareness of the relationships of public health and climate change could be a key in breaking through political logjams impeding action on mitigation and adaptation. The aims of this study are to investigate about the importance of interactions between weather variables and your effects on human health, focusing on Italy. Also highlighting the need to define strategies and practical actions of monitoring, adaptation and mitigation of the phenomenon.

Keywords: climate change, illness, Italy, temperature, weather

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Authors: C. Okonkwo Ugochukwu, E. Sinebe Jude, N. Odoh Blessing, E. Okafor Christian

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In this paper, a modification on repair workshop queuing system using multi priority scheme was carried out. Chi square goodness of fit test was used to determine the random distribution of the inter arrival time and service time of crankshafts that come for maintenance in the workshop. The chi square values obtained for all the prioritized classes show that the distribution conforms to Poisson distribution. The mean waiting time in queue results of non-preemptive priority for 1st, 2nd and 3rd classes show 0.066, 0.09, and 0.224 day respectively, while preemptive priority show 0.007, 0.036 and 0.258 day. However, when non priority is used, which obviously has no class distinction it amounts to 0.17 days. From the results, one can observe that the preemptive priority system provides a very dramatic improvement over the non preemptive priority as it concerns arrivals that are of higher priority. However, the improvement has a detrimental effect on the low priority class. The trend of the results is similar to the mean waiting time in the system as a result of addition of the actual service time. Even though the mean waiting time for the queue and that of the system for no priority takes the least time when compared with the least priority, urgent and semi-urgent jobs will terribly suffer which will most likely result in reneging or balking of many urgent jobs. Hence, the adoption of priority scheme in this type of scenario will result in huge profit to the Company and more customer satisfaction.

Keywords: queue, priority class, preemptive, non-preemptive, mean waiting time

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Authors: Chang He, Hiroshi Tamura, Hiroshi Katsuchi, Jiaqi Wang

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In this study, the aim is to infer the slip limit (static friction limit) of contact interfaces in bolt friction joints by analyzing other bolt friction joints with the same contact surface but in a different shape. By using the Weibull distribution to deal with microelements on the contact surface statistically, the slip limit of a certain type of bolt joint was predicted from other types of bolt joint with the same contact surface. As a result, this research succeeded in predicting the slip limit of bolt joins with different numbers of contact surfaces and with different numbers of bolt rows.

Keywords: bolt joints, slip coefficient, finite element method, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Amani Abdallah, Isam Shahrour

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The quality of drinking water is a major concern of public health. The control of this quality is generally performed in the laboratory, which requires a long time. This type of control is not adapted for accidental pollution from sudden events, which can have serious consequences on population health. Therefore, it is of major interest to develop real-time innovative solutions for the detection of accidental contamination in drinking water systems This paper presents researches conducted within the SunRise Demonstrator for ‘Smart and Sustainable Cities’ with a particular focus on the supervision of the water quality. This work aims at (i) implementing a smart water system in a large water network (Campus of the University Lille1) including innovative equipment for real-time detection of abnormal events, such as those related to the contamination of drinking water and (ii) develop a numerical modeling of the contamination diffusion in the water distribution system. The first step included verification of the water quality sensors and their effectiveness on a network prototype of 50m length. This part included the evaluation of the efficiency of these sensors in the detection both bacterial and chemical contamination events in drinking water distribution systems. An on-line optical sensor integral with a laboratory-scale distribution system (LDS) was shown to respond rapidly to changes in refractive index induced by injected loads of chemical (cadmium, mercury) and biological contaminations (Escherichia coli). All injected substances were detected by the sensor; the magnitude of the response depends on the type of contaminant introduced and it is proportional to the injected substance concentration.

Keywords: distribution system, drinking water, refraction index, sensor, real-time

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Authors: Mehdi Jalalpour, Mazdak Tootkaboni

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We present a computationally efficient method for reliability-based topology optimization under material properties uncertainty, which is assumed to be lognormally distributed and correlated within the domain. Computational efficiency is achieved through estimating the response statistics with stochastic perturbation of second order, using these statistics to fit an appropriate distribution that follows the empirical distribution of the response, and employing an efficient gradient-based optimizer. The proposed algorithm is utilized for design of new structures and the changes in the optimized topology is discussed for various levels of target reliability and correlation strength. Predictions were verified thorough comparison with results obtained using Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: material uncertainty, stochastic perturbation, structural reliability, topology optimization

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Authors: Amit G. Dhorde

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It is now well established that the global surface air temperatures have increased significantly during the period that followed the industrial revolution. One of the main predictions of climate change is that the occurrences of extreme weather events will increase in future. In many regions of the world, high-temperature extremes have already started occurring with rising frequency. The main objective of the present study is to understand spatial and temporal changes in days with heat and cold wave conditions over southern India. The study area includes the region of India that lies to the south of Tropic of Cancer. To fulfill the objective, daily maximum and minimum temperature data for 80 stations were collected for the period 1969-2006 from National Data Center of India Meteorological Department. After assessing the homogeneity of data, 62 stations were finally selected for the study. Heat and cold waves were classified as slight, moderate and severe based on the criteria given by Indias' meteorological department. For every year, numbers of days experiencing heat and cold wave conditions were computed. This data was analyzed with linear regression to find any existing trend. Further, the time period was divided into four decades to investigate the decadal frequency of the occurrence of heat and cold waves. The results revealed that the average annual temperature over southern India shows an increasing trend, which signifies warming over this area. Further, slight cold waves during winter season have been decreasing at the majority of the stations. The moderate cold waves also show a similar pattern at the majority of the stations. This is an indication of warming winters over the region. Besides this analysis, other extreme indices were also analyzed such as extremely hot days, hot days, very cold nights, cold nights, etc. This analysis revealed that nights are becoming warmer and days are getting warmer over some regions too.

Keywords: heat wave, cold wave, southern India, decadal frequency

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Authors: Zilaila Zakaria, Muhd Azri Abdul Razak, Muhammad Murtadha Othman, Mohd Ainor Yahya, Ismail Musirin, Mat Nasir Kari, Mohd Fazli Osman, Mohd Zaini Hassan, Baihaki Azraee

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Energy efficiency can be realized by minimizing the power loss with a sufficient amount of energy used in an electrical distribution system. In this report, a detailed analysis of the energy efficiency of an electric distribution system was carried out with an implementation of the optimal capacitor placement and sizing (OCPS). The particle swarm optimization (PSO) will be used to determine optimal location and sizing for the capacitors whereas energy consumption and power losses minimization will improve the energy efficiency. In addition, a certain number of busbars or locations are identified in advance before the PSO is performed to solve OCPS. In this case study, three techniques are performed for the pre-selection of busbar or locations which are the power-loss-index (PLI). The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is designed to provide a new population with improved sizing and location of capacitors. The total cost of power losses, energy consumption and capacitor installation are the components considered in the objective and fitness functions of the proposed optimization technique. Voltage magnitude limit, total harmonic distortion (THD) limit, power factor limit and capacitor size limit are the parameters considered as the constraints for the proposed of optimization technique. In this research, the proposed methodologies implemented in the MATLAB® software will transfer the information, execute the three-phase unbalanced load flow solution and retrieve then collect the results or data from the three-phase unbalanced electrical distribution systems modeled in the SIMULINK® software. Effectiveness of the proposed methods used to improve the energy efficiency has been verified through several case studies and the results are obtained from the test systems of IEEE 13-bus unbalanced electrical distribution system and also the practical electrical distribution system model of Sultan Salahuddin Abdul Aziz Shah (SSAAS) government building in Shah Alam, Selangor.

Keywords: particle swarm optimization, pre-determine of capacitor locations, optimal capacitors placement and sizing, unbalanced electrical distribution system

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Authors: Miranda I. Dosunmu, Orok E. Oyo-Ita, Inyang O. Oyo-Ita

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Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a class of priority listed organic pollutants due to their carcinogenicity, mutagenity, acute toxicity and persistency in the environment. The distribution and historical changes of PAHs contamination in recent sediment cores from the Imo River were investigated using gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometer. The concentrations of total PAHs (TPAHs) ranging from 402.37 ng/g dry weight (dw) at the surface layer of the Estuary zone (ESC6; 0-5 cm) to 92,388.59 ng/g dw at the near surface layer of the Afam zone (ASC5; 5-10 cm) indicate that PAHs contamination was localized not only between sample sites but also within the same cores. Sediment-depth profiles for the four (Afam, Mangrove, Estuary and illegal Petroleum refinery) cores revealed irregular distribution patterns in the TPAH concentrations except the fact that these levels became maximized at the near surface layers (5-10 cm) corresponding to a geological time-frame of about 1996-2004. This time scale coincided with the period of intensive bunkering and oil pipeline vandalization by the Niger Delta militant groups. Also a general slight decline was found in the TPAHs levels from near the surface layers (5-10 cm) to the most recent top layers (0-5 cm) of the cores, attributable to the recent effort by the Nigerian government in clamping down the illegal activity of the economic saboteurs. Therefore, the recent amnesty period granted to the militant groups should be extended. Although mechanism of perylene formation still remains enigmatic, examination of its distributions down cores indicates natural biogenic, pyrogenic and petrogenic origins for the compound at different zones. Thus, the characteristic features of the Imo River environment provide a means of tracing diverse origins for perylene.

Keywords: perylene, historical trend, distribution, origin, Imo River

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Authors: Yuyun Wabula, B. J. Dewancker

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In the past decade, the social networking app has been growing very rapidly. Geolocation data is one of the important features of social media that can attach the user's location coordinate in the real world. This paper proposes the use of geolocation data from the Twitter social media application to gain knowledge about urban dynamics, especially on human mobility behavior. This paper aims to explore the relation between geolocation Twitter with the existence of people in the urban area. Firstly, the study will analyze the spread of people in the particular area, within the city using Twitter social media data. Secondly, we then match and categorize the existing place based on the same individuals visiting. Then, we combine the Twitter data from the tracking result and the questionnaire data to catch the Twitter user profile. To do that, we used the distribution frequency analysis to learn the visitors’ percentage. To validate the hypothesis, we compare it with the local population statistic data and land use mapping released by the city planning department of Makassar local government. The results show that there is the correlation between Twitter geolocation and questionnaire data. Thus, integration the Twitter data and survey data can reveal the profile of the social media users.

Keywords: geolocation, Twitter, distribution analysis, human mobility

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Authors: Vijay Kumar Singh, Pooja Kushwaha, Prabhat Ranjan, Krishna Kumar Ojha, Jitendra Kumar

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Present day high-throughput genomic technologies, NGS/microarrays, are producing large volume of data that require improved analysis methods to make sense of the data. The correlation between genes and samples has been regularly used to gain insight into many biological phenomena including, but not limited to, co-expression/co-regulation, gene regulatory networks, clustering and pattern identification. However, presence of outliers and violation of assumptions underlying Pearson correlation is frequent and may distort the actual correlation between the genes and lead to spurious conclusions. Here, we report a method to measure the strength of association between genes. The method assumes that the expression values of a gene are Bernoulli random variables whose outcome depends on the sample being probed. The method considers the two genes as uncorrelated if the number of sample with same outcome for both the genes (Ns) is equal to certainly expected number (Es). The extent of correlation depends on how far Ns can deviate from the Es. The method does not assume normality for the parent population, fairly unaffected by the presence of outliers, can be applied to qualitative data and it uses the binomial distribution to assess the significance of association. At this stage, we would not claim about the superiority of the method over other existing correlation methods, but our method could be another way of calculating correlation in addition to existing methods. The method uses binomial distribution, which has not been used until yet, to assess the significance of association between two variables. We are evaluating the performance of our method on NGS/microarray data, which is noisy and pierce by the outliers, to see if our method can differentiate between spurious and actual correlation. While working with the method, it has not escaped our notice that the method could also be generalized to measure the association of more than two variables which has been proven difficult with the existing methods.

Keywords: binomial distribution, correlation, microarray, outliers, transcriptome

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Authors: Liang Hu

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The innovation of refractory high-entropy alloy (RHEA) formed from refractory metals W, Ta, Mo, Nb, Hf, V, and Zr was firstly implemented in 2010 to obtain better strength at high temperature than conventional HEAs based on Al, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe and Ni. Due to the refractory characteristic and high chemical activity at elevated temperature, electrostatic levitation technique has been utilized to fulfill the rapid solidification of RHEA. Several RHEAs consisting W, Ta, Mo, Nb, Zr have been selected to perform the undercooling and rapid solidification by ESL. They are substantially undercooled by up to 0.2TL. The evolution of as-solidified microstructure and component redistribution with undercooling have been investigated by SEM, EBSD, and EPMA analysis. According to the EPMA results of composing elements at different undercooling levels, the chemical distribution relevant to undercooling was also analyzed.

Keywords: chemical distribution, high-entropy alloy, rapid solidification, undercooling

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Authors: Lokesh Varshney, R. K. Saket

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This paper presents reliability indices evaluation of the rotor core magnetization of the induction motor operated as a self-excited induction generator by using probability distribution approach and Monte Carlo simulation. Parallel capacitors with calculated minimum capacitive value across the terminals of the induction motor operating as a SEIG with unregulated shaft speed have been connected during the experimental study. A three phase, 4 poles, 50Hz, 5.5 hp, 12.3A, 230V induction motor coupled with DC Shunt Motor was tested in the electrical machine laboratory with variable reactive loads. Based on this experimental study, it is possible to choose a reliable induction machine operating as a SEIG for unregulated renewable energy application in remote area or where grid is not available. Failure density function, cumulative failure distribution function, survivor function, hazard model, probability of success and probability of failure for reliability evaluation of the three phase induction motor operating as a SEIG have been presented graphically in this paper.

Keywords: residual magnetism, magnetization curve, induction motor, self excited induction generator, probability distribution, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Ricardo Paiva, Rui Soares, Felix Harnau, Bruno Fragoso

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Nickel-based alloys are materials well suited for service in extreme environments subjected to pressure and heat. Some industrial applications for Nickel-based alloys are aerospace and jet engines, oil and gas extraction, pollution control and waste processing, automotive and marine industry. It is generally recognized that grain refinement is an effective methodology to improve the quality of casted parts. Conventional grain refinement techniques involve the addition of inoculation substances, the control of solidification conditions, or thermomechanical treatment with recrystallization. However, such methods often lead to non-uniform grain size distribution and the formation of hard phases, which are detrimental to both wear performance and biocompatibility. Stirring of the melt by electromagnetic fields has been widely used in continuous castings with success for grain refinement, solute redistribution, and surface quality improvement. Despite the advantages, much attention has not been paid yet to the use of this approach on functional castings such as investment casting. Furthermore, the effect of electromagnetic stirring (EMS) fields on Nickel-based alloys is not known. In line with the gaps/needs of the state-of-art, the present research work targets to promote new advances in controlling grain size and morphology of investment cast Nickel based alloys. For such a purpose, a set of experimental tests was conducted. A high-frequency induction furnace with vacuum and controlled atmosphere was used to cast the Inconel 718 alloy in ceramic shells. A coil surrounded the casting chamber in order to induce electromagnetic stirring during solidification. Aiming to assess the effect of the electromagnetic stirring on Ni alloys, the samples were subjected to microstructural analysis and mechanical tests. The results show that electromagnetic stirring can be an effective methodology to modify the grain size and mechanical properties of investment-cast parts.

Keywords: investment casting, grain refinement, electromagnetic stirring, nickel alloys

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Authors: Abd Elrahman Elgamala, N. Darwish, I. Bondouk, Sh. Hamada

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Available experimental angular distributions for ⁶Li elastically scattered from ¹⁶O nucleus in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV are investigated and reanalyzed using optical model of the conventional phenomenological potential and also using double folding optical model of different interaction models: DDM3Y1, CDM3Y1, CDM3Y2, and CDM3Y3. All the involved models of interaction are of M3Y Paris except DDM3Y1 which is of M3Y Reid and the main difference between them lies in the different values for the parameters of the incorporated density distribution function F(ρ). We have extracted the renormalization factor N_R for ⁶Li+¹⁶O nuclear system in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV using the aforementioned interaction models.

Keywords: elastic scattering, optical model, folding potential, density distribution

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Authors: J. S. Savier

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Real power is the component power which is converted into useful energy whereas reactive power is the component of power which cannot be converted to useful energy but it is required for the magnetization of various electrical machineries. If the reactive power is compensated at the consumer end, the need for reactive power flow from generators to the load can be avoided and hence the overall power loss can be reduced. In this scenario, this paper presents a succinct method called JSS method for allocation of reactive power losses to consumers connected to radial distribution networks in a deregulated environment. The proposed method has the advantage that no assumptions are made while deriving the reactive power loss allocation method.

Keywords: deregulation, reactive power loss allocation, radial distribution systems, succinct method

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Authors: Benedictus Asriparusa, Lathifah Al Hakimi, Aulia Husada

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A large amount of energy is being wasted by the release of natural gas associated with the oil industry. This release interrupts the environment particularly atmosphere layer condition globally which contributes to global warming impact. This research presents an overview of the methods employed by researchers in PT. Chevron Pacific Indonesia in the Minas area to determine a new prediction method of measuring and reducing gas flaring and its emission. The method emphasizes advanced research which involved analytical studies, numerical studies, modeling, and computer simulations, amongst other techniques. A flaring system is the controlled burning of natural gas in the course of routine oil and gas production operations. This burning occurs at the end of a flare stack or boom. The combustion process releases emissions of greenhouse gases such as NO2, CO2, SO2, etc. This condition will affect the chemical composition of air and environment around the boundary layer mainly during transition season. Transition season in Indonesia is absolutely very difficult condition to predict its pattern caused by the difference of two air mass conditions. This paper research focused on transition season in 2013. A simulation to create the new pattern of the pollutants distribution is needed. This paper has outlines trends in gas flaring modeling and current developments to predict the dominant variables in the pollutants distribution. A Fluent model is used to simulate the distribution of pollutants gas coming out of the stack, whereas WRF model output is used to overcome the limitations of the analysis of meteorological data and atmospheric conditions in the study area. Based on the running model, the most influence factor was wind speed. The goal of the simulation is to predict the new pattern based on the time of fastest wind and slowest wind occurs for pollutants distribution. According to the simulation results, it can be seen that the fastest wind (last of March) moves pollutants in a horizontal direction and the slowest wind (middle of May) moves pollutants vertically. Besides, the design of flare stack in compliance according to EPA Oil and Gas Facility Stack Parameters likely shows pollutants concentration remains on the under threshold NAAQS (National Ambient Air Quality Standards).

Keywords: flare motion, new prediction, pollutants distribution, transition season, WRF model

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Authors: Jinnan Guo, Daoyin Liu

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The quality of final products in the coating process significantly depends on particle fluidization and drying in the spray-fluidized bed. In this study, fluidizing gas temperature and velocity are changed, and their effects on particle flow, moisture content, and heat transfer in a spray fluidized bed are investigated by the CFD – Discrete Element Model (DEM). The gas flow velocity distribution of the fluidized bed is symmetrical, with high velocity in the middle and low velocity on both sides. During the heating process, the particles inside the central tube and at the bottom of the bed are rapidly heated. The particle circulation in the annular area is heated slowly and the temperature is low. The inconsistency of particle circulation results in two peaks in the probability density distribution of the particle temperature during the heating process, and the overall temperature of the particles increases uniformly. During the drying process, the distribution of particle moisture transitions from initial uniform moisture to two peaks, and then the number of completely dried (moisture content of 0) particles gradually increases. Increasing the fluidizing gas temperature and velocity improves particle circulation, drying and heat transfer in the bed. The current study provides an effective method for studying the hydrodynamics of spray fluidized beds with simultaneous processes of heating and particle fluidization.

Keywords: heat transfer, CFD-DEM, spray fluidized bed, drying

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Authors: Siamak Jamshidi

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One of the major environmental problems in the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea is that the marine and coastal debris is being deposited and accumulated due to industrial, urban and tourism activities. Study, sampling and analysis on the type, size, amount and origin of human-made (anthropogenic) waste in the coastal areas of this sea can be very effective in implementing management, cultural and informative programs to reduce marine environmental pollutants. Investigation on marine litter distribution under impact of seawater dynamics was performed for the first time in this research. The rate of entry and distribution of marine and coastal pollutants and wastes, which are mainly of urban, tourist and hospital origin, has multiplied on the southern shore of the Caspian Sea in the last decade. According to the results, the two most important sources of hospital waste in the coastal areas are Tonekabon and Mahmoudabad. In this case, the effect of dynamic parameters of seawater such as flow (with speeds of up to about 1 m/s) and waves, as well as the flow of rivers leading to the shoreline are also influential factors in the distribution of marine litter in the region. Marine litters in the southern coastal region were transported from west to east by the shallow waters of the southern Caspian Sea. In other words, the marine debris density has been observed more in the eastern part.

Keywords: southern shelf, coastal oceanography, seawater flow, vertical structure, marine environment

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Authors: Funda Erdem Şahnali, Ş. Özgür Atayılmaz, Tolga N. Aynur

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Almost all of the domestic refrigerators operate on the principle of the vapor compression refrigeration cycle and removal of heat from the refrigerator cabinets is done via one of the two methods: natural convection or forced convection. In this study, airflow and temperature distributions inside a 375L no-frost type larder cabinet, in which cooling is provided by forced convection, are evaluated both experimentally and numerically. Airflow rate, compressor capacity and temperature distribution in the cooling chamber are known to be some of the most important factors that affect the cooling performance and energy consumption of a refrigerator. The objective of this study is to evaluate the original temperature distribution in the larder cabinet, and investigate for better temperature distribution solutions throughout the refrigerator domain via system optimizations that could provide uniform temperature distribution. The flow visualization and airflow velocity measurements inside the original refrigerator are performed via Stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry (SPIV). In addition, airflow and temperature distributions are investigated numerically with Ansys Fluent. In order to study the heat transfer inside the aforementioned refrigerator, forced convection theories covering the following cases are applied: closed rectangular cavity representing heat transfer inside the refrigerating compartment. The cavity volume has been represented with finite volume elements and is solved computationally with appropriate momentum and energy equations (Navier-Stokes equations). The 3D model is analyzed as transient, with k-ε turbulence model and SIMPLE pressure-velocity coupling for turbulent flow situation. The results obtained with the 3D numerical simulations are in quite good agreement with the experimental airflow measurements using the SPIV technique. After Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of the baseline case, the effects of three parameters: compressor capacity, fan rotational speed and type of shelf (glass or wire) are studied on the energy consumption; pull down time, temperature distributions in the cabinet. For each case, energy consumption based on experimental results is calculated. After the analysis, the main effective parameters for temperature distribution inside a cabin and energy consumption based on CFD simulation are determined and simulation results are supplied for Design of Experiments (DOE) as input data for optimization. The best configuration with minimum energy consumption that provides minimum temperature difference between the shelves inside the cabinet is determined.

Keywords: air distribution, CFD, DOE, energy consumption, experimental, larder cabinet, refrigeration, uniform temperature

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Authors: Anand Malik

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The Himalayas with high tectonic activities poses a great threat to human life and property. Climate change is another reason which triggering extreme events multiple fold effect on high mountain glacial environment, rock falls, landslides, debris flows, flash flood and snow avalanches. One such extreme event of cloud burst along with breach of moraine dammed Chorabri Lake occurred from June 14 to June 17, 2013, triggered flooding of Saraswati and Mandakini rivers in the Kedarnath Valley of Rudraprayag district of Uttrakhand state of India. As a result, huge volume of water with its high velocity created a catastrophe of the century, which resulted into loss of large number of human/animals, pilgrimage, tourism, agriculture and property. Thus a comprehensive assessment of debris flow hazards requires GIS-based modeling using numerical methods. The aim of present study is to focus on analysis and mapping of debris flow movements using geospatial data with flow-r (developed by team at IGAR, University of Lausanne). The model is based on combined probabilistic and energetic algorithms for the assessment of spreading of flow with maximum run out distances. Aster Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 30m x 30m cell size (resolution) is used as main geospatial data for preparing the run out assessment, while Landsat data is used to analyze land use land cover change in the study area. The results of the study area show that model can be applied with great accuracy as the model is very useful in determining debris flow areas. The results are compared with existing available landslides/debris flow maps. ArcGIS software is used in preparing run out susceptibility maps which can be used in debris flow mitigation and future land use planning.

Keywords: debris flow, geospatial data, GIS based modeling, flow-R

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Authors: Hassan Sher

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Agriculture has a pivotal role in Pakistan’s economy, accounting for about one-fourth of the GDP and employing almost half the population. However, the competitiveness, productivity, growth, employment potential, export opportunity, and contribution to GDP of the sector is significantly hampered by agriculture marketing laws/regulations at the provincial level that reward rent seeking behavior, promote monopoly power, artificially reduce farmer incomes while inflating prices to consumers, and act as disincentives to investment. Although of more recent vintage than some other provincial agricultural marketing laws, the NWFP Agricultural and Livestock Produce Markets Act, 2007 is a throwback to a colonial paradigm, where restrictions on agricultural produce marketing and Government control of distribution channels is the norm. The Swat Valley (in which we include its tributary valleys) is an area of Pakistan in which there is poverty is both extreme and pervasive. For many, a significant portion of the family’s income comes from selling plants that are used as herbs, medicines, and perfumes. Earlier studies have shown that the benefit they derive from this work is less than they might because of: Lack of knowledge concerning which plants and which plant parts are valuable, Lack of knowledge concerning optimal preservation and storage of material, illiteracy. Another concern that much of the plant material sold from the valley is collected in the wild, without an appreciation of the negative impact continued collecting has on wild populations. We propose: Creating colored cards to help inhabitants recognize the 25 most valuable plants in their area; Developing and sharing protocols for growing the 25 most valuable plants in a home garden; Developing and sharing efficient mechanisms for drying plants so they do not lose value; Encouraging increased literacy by incorporating numbers and a few words in the handouts.

Keywords: food security, medicinal plants, industrial plants, economic development

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Authors: Nur-E-Jannat Tinu

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Water is absolutely vital not only for the survival of human beings but also for plants, animals, and all other living organisms. Water bodies, such as lakes, rivers, ponds, and estuaries, are the source of water supply in domestic, industrial, agriculture, and aquaculture purposes. The Buriganga River flows through the south and west of Dhaka city. The water quality of this river has become a matter of concern due to anthropogenic intervention of vital pollutants such as industrial effluents, urban sewage, and solid wastes in this area. Buriganga River is at risk to contamination from untreated municipal wastes, industrial discharges, runoff from organic and inorganic fertilizers, pesticides, insecticides, and oil emission around the river. The residential and commercial establishments along the river discharge wastewater either directly into the river or through drains and canals into the river. However, several regulatory measures and policies have been enforced by the Government to protect the river Buriganga from pollution, in most cases to no affect. Water quality assessment reveals that the water is also not appropriate for irrigation purposes. The physical parameters (pH, TDS, EC, Temperature, DO, COD, BOD) indicated that the water is too poor to be useable for agricultural, drinking, or other purposes. Chemical concentrations showed significant seasonal variations with high-level concentrations during the monsoon season, presumably due to extreme seasonal surface runoff. A comparative study of Electrical Conductivity (EC) and Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) indicated a considerable increase over the last five years A change in trend was observed from 2020 June-July, probably due to monsoon and post-monsoon. EC values decreased from 775 to 665 mmho/cm during this period. DO increased significantly from the mid-post-monsoon months to the early monsoon period. The pH value of river water is strongly alkaline, ranging between 6.5 and 7.79. This indicates that ecological organic compounds cause the water to become alkaline after the monsoon and monsoon seasons. As the water pollution level is very high, an effective remediation and pollution control plan should be considered.

Keywords: precipitation, spatial distribution, effluent, remediation

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Authors: Suparman

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This paper addresses the problem of the signal segmentation within a Bayesian framework by using reversible jump MCMC algorithm. The signal is modelled by piecewise constant Moving-Average (MA) model where the numbers of segments, the position of change-point, the order and the coefficient of the MA model for each segment are unknown. The reversible jump MCMC algorithm is then used to generate samples distributed according to the joint posterior distribution of the unknown parameters. These samples allow calculating some interesting features of the posterior distribution. The performance of the methodology is illustrated via several simulation results.

Keywords: piecewise, moving-average model, reversible jump MCMC, signal segmentation

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Authors: Faci Youcef

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In the present work, an experimental study is carried out using the digital image correlation (DIC) technique to analyze the damage and behavior of woven composite carbon/epoxy under tensile loading. The tension mechanisms associated with failure modes of bolted joints in advanced composites are studied, as well as displacement distribution and strain distribution. The evolution value of bolt angle inclination during tensile tests was studied. In order to compare the distribution of displacements and strains along the surface, figures of image mapping are made. Several factors that are responsible for the failure of fiber-reinforced polymer composite materials are observed. It was found that strain concentrations observed in the specimens can be used to identify full-field damage onset and to monitor damage progression during loading. Moreover, there is an interaction between laminate pattern, laminate thickness, fastener size and type, surface strain concentrations, and out-of-plane displacement. Conclusions include a failure analysis associated with bolt angle inclinations and supported by microscopic visualizations of the composite specimen. The DIC results can be used to develop and accurately validate numerical models.

Keywords: Carbone, woven, damage, digital image, bolted joint, the inclination of angle

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Authors: Zahra Bakhtiari

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This article explores the development and evolution of the concept of environmental justice, which has shifted from being dominated by white and middle-class individuals to a civil struggle by marginalized communities against environmental injustices. Environmental justice aims to achieve equity in decision-making and policy-making related to the environment. The concept of justice in this context includes four fundamental aspects: distribution, procedure, recognition, and capabilities. Recent scholars have attempted to broaden the concept of justice to include dimensions of participation, recognition, and capabilities. Focusing on all four dimensions of environmental justice is crucial for effective planning and policy-making to address environmental issues. Ignoring any of these aspects can lead to the failure of efforts and the waste of resources.

Keywords: environmental justice, distribution, procedure, recognition, capabilities

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Authors: Seyedeh Belin Tavakoly Sany, Rosli Hashim, Majid Rezayi, Aishah Salleh

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The primary objectives of this study were to investigate the distribution and composition of the macrobenthic community and their response to environmental parameters in the North Port, west coastal waters of Malaysia. A total of 25 species were identified, including 13 bivalvia, 4 gastropoda, and 3 crustacea. The other taxa were less diversified. There were no temporal changes in the macrobenthic community composition, but significant effects (p < 0.05) on the benthic community composition were found on a spatial scale. The correlation analyses and similarity tests were in good agreement, confirming the significant response of macrobenthic community composition to variations of environmental parameters.

Keywords: distribution, macrobenthic community, diversity, North Port, Malaysia

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Authors: Spada Alessia, Fiore Mariantonietta, Lamonaca Emilia, Contò Francesco

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Bioeconomy can give the chance to face new global challenges and can move ahead the transition from a waste economy to an economy based on renewable resources and sustainable consumption. Air pollution is a grave issue in green challenges, mainly caused by anthropogenic factors. The agriculture sector is a great contributor to global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions due to lacking efficient management of the resources involved and research policies. In particular, livestock sector contributes to emissions of GHGs, deforestation, and nutrient imbalances. More effective agricultural research systems and technologies are crucial in order to improve farm productivity but also to reduce the GHGs emissions. Using data from FAOSTAT statistics and concern the EU countries; the aim of this research is to evaluate the impact of ASTI R&D (Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators) on GHGs emissions for countries EU in 2015 by generalized propensity score procedures, estimating a dose-response function, also considering a set of covariates. Expected results show the existence of the influence of ASTI R&D on GHGs across EU countries. Implications are crucial: reducing GHGs emissions by means of R&D based policies and correlatively reaching eco-friendly management of required resources by means of green available practices could have a crucial role for fair intra-generational implications.

Keywords: agricultural research systems, dose-response function, generalized propensity score, GHG emissions

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Authors: Savas Yildiz

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The article assesses the performance of international aid donors to determine the sub-national distribution of their aid projects dependent on recipient countries’ governance. The present paper extends the scope from a cross-country perspective to a more detailed analysis by looking at the effects of institutional qualities on the sub-national distribution of foreign aid. The analysis examines geo-referenced aid project in 37 countries and 404 regions at the first administrative division level in Sub-Saharan Africa from the World Bank (WB) and the African Development Bank (ADB) that were approved between the years 2000 and 2011. To measure the influence of institutional qualities on the distribution of aid the following measures are used: control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality and rule of law from the World Governance Indicators (WGI) and the corruption perception index from Transparency International. Furthermore, to assess the importance of ethnic heterogeneity on the sub-national distribution of aid projects, the study also includes interaction terms measuring ethnic fragmentation. The regression results indicate a general skew of aid projects towards regions which hold capital cities, however, being incumbent presidents’ birth region does not increase the allocation of aid projects significantly. Nevertheless, with increasing quality of institutions aid projects are less skewed towards capital regions and the previously estimated coefficients loose significance in most cases. Higher ethnic fragmentation also seems to impede the possibility to allocate aid projects mainly in capital city regions and presidents’ birth places. Additionally, to assess the performance of the WB based on its own proclaimed goal to aim the poor in a country, the study also includes sub-national wealth data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DSH), and finds that, even with better institutional qualities, regions with a larger share from the richest quintile receive significantly more aid than regions with a larger share of poor people. With increasing ethnic diversity, the allocation of aid projects towards regions where the richest citizens reside diminishes, but still remains high and significant. However, regions with a larger share of poor people still do not receive significantly more aid. This might imply that the sub-national distribution of aid projects increases in general with higher ethnic fragmentation, independent of the diverse regional needs. The results provide evidence that institutional qualities matter to undermine the influence of incumbent presidents on the allocation of aid projects towards their birth regions and capital regions. Moreover, even for countries with better institutional qualities the WB and the ADB do not seem to be able to aim the poor in a country with their aid projects. Even, if one considers need-based variables, such as infant mortality and child mortality rates, aid projects do not seem to be allocated in districts with a larger share of people in need. Therefore, the study provides further evidence using more detailed information on the sub-national distribution of aid projects that aid is not being allocated effectively towards regions with a larger share of poor people to alleviate poverty in recipient countries directly. Institutions do not have any significant influence on the sub-national distribution of aid towards the poor.

Keywords: aid allocation, georeferenced data, institutions, spatial analysis

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Authors: Kayode Oshinubi, Brice Kammegne, Jacques Demongeot

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The use of mathematical tools like Partial Differential Equations and Ordinary Differential Equations have become very important to predict the evolution of a viral disease in a population in order to take preventive and curative measures. In December 2019, a novel variety of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China causing a severe and potentially fatal respiratory syndrome, i.e., COVID-19. Since then, it has become a pandemic declared by World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020 which has spread around the globe. A reaction-diffusion system is a mathematical model that describes the evolution of a phenomenon subjected to two processes: a reaction process in which different substances are transformed, and a diffusion process that causes a distribution in space. This article provides a mathematical study of the Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, and Vaccinated population model of the COVID-19 pandemic by the bias of reaction-diffusion equations. Both local and global asymptotic stability conditions for disease-free and endemic equilibria are determined using the Lyapunov function are considered and the endemic equilibrium point exists and is stable if it satisfies Routh–Hurwitz criteria. Also, adequate conditions for the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the model have been proved. We showed the spatial distribution of the model compartments when the basic reproduction rate $\mathcal{R}_0 < 1$ and $\mathcal{R}_0 > 1$ and sensitivity analysis is performed in order to determine the most sensitive parameters in the proposed model. We demonstrate the model's effectiveness by performing numerical simulations. We investigate the impact of vaccination and the significance of spatial distribution parameters in the spread of COVID-19. The findings indicate that reducing contact with an infected person and increasing the proportion of susceptible people who receive high-efficacy vaccination will lessen the burden of COVID-19 in the population. To the public health policymakers, we offered a better understanding of the COVID-19 management.

Keywords: COVID-19, SEIRV epidemic model, reaction-diffusion equation, basic reproduction number, vaccination, spatial distribution

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Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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Climate change is continuously affecting the ecosystem, species distribution as well as global biodiversity. The assessment of the species potential distribution and the spatial changes under various climate change scenarios is a significant step towards the conservation and mitigation of habitat shifts, and species' loss and vulnerability. In this context, the present study aimed to predict the influence of current and future climate on an ecologically vulnerable medicinal species, Garcinia gummi-gutta, of the southern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. The future projections were made for the period of 2050 and 2070 with RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario of 4.5 and 8.5 using 84 species occurrence data, and climatic variables from three different models of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment. Climatic variables contributions were assessed using jackknife test and AOC value 0.888 indicates the model perform with high accuracy. The major influencing variables will be annual precipitation, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest quarter. The model result shows that the current high potential distribution of the species is around 1.90% of the study area, 7.78% is good potential; about 90.32% is moderate to very low potential for species suitability. Finally, the results of all model represented that there will be a drastic decline in the suitable habitat distribution by 2050 and 2070 for all the RCP scenarios. The study signifies that MaxEnt model might be an efficient tool for ecosystem management, biodiversity protection, and species re-habitation planning under climate change.

Keywords: Garcinia gummi gutta, maximum entropy modeling, medicinal plants, climate change, western ghats, MaxEnt

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