Search results for: community-based flood risk management

Authors: Pankaj Kumar

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Despite few works reported about fluoride enrichment in the groundwater, no studies have done on exposure analysis for biological components in Patan district, Gujarat, Western India. Considering its vital importance, this study strives to quantify the bioaccumulation of fluoride in seven different crops and vegetables, viz. Spinach and Mustard leaves, Cauliflower, Wheat grains, Amaranth seed, Radish, and Garlic grown in the potentially fluoride contaminated area. Result shows that the order for fluoride accumulation among different analyzed plants are spinach (63.3 mg/kg) > mustard (48.9 mg/kg) > cauliflower (41.1 mg/kg) > radish (35.7 mg/kg) > garlic (33.2 mg/kg) > amaranth seed (26.7 mg/kg) > wheat (22.5 mg/kg). Fluoride concentration was highest in leafy vegetable, whereas the lowest was in wheat grains. Finally, estimated daily intake (EDI) and hazard index (HI) were calculated for local consumers of different age group, where it was found that young people (4-15 years) are at the highest risk of fluorosis. This study is relevant for better crop management, like substituting crops with woody plants, flowers, and people awareness.

Keywords: fluoride, bioaccumulation, health risk, water

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

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Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: perceived risk, online contracts, Saudi Arabia, consumer protection

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Askarizadeh

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The customer’s value has become obvious for the leading companies in today’s competitive environment. Therefore they are constantly trying to improve their relationship with customers. Customer Knowledge has been recognized as a strategic resource and a key to the success of any company. Talking about the Customer Knowledge Management is closely associated with Knowledge Management and Customer Relationship Management (CRM). Recent studies conducted in the fields of Knowledge Management (KM) and Customer Relationship Management (CRM) has explained that the two approaches can have great synergies. In this paper, our aim is to provide an understanding of Customer Knowledge Management (CKM) as an integrated management approach and competence it requires. We describe CKM as an ongoing process of generating, disseminating and using customer knowledge within an organization and between an organization and its customers. In addition, we propose a comprehensive framework of CKM, the ability to integrate customer knowledge into customer relationship management processes.

Keywords: e-commerce, knowledge management (KM), customer relationship management (CRM), customer knowledge management (CKM)

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Authors: Osama Sassi, Manal Eltorki, Iftikhar Ahmad

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Poor integrity is one of the major causes of leaks and accidents in gas transmission pipelines. To ensure safe operation, it is must to have efficient and effective pipeline integrity management (PIM) system. The corrosion management is one of the important aspects of successful pipeline integrity management program together design, material selection, operations, risk evaluation and communication aspects to maintain pipelines in a fit-for-service condition. The objective of a corrosion management plan is to design corrosion mitigation, monitoring, and inspection strategy, and for maintenance in a timely manner. This paper presents the experience of corrosion management of a gas transmission pipeline from Wafa field to Mellitah gas plant in Libya. The pipeline is 525.5 km long and having 32 inches diameter. It is a buried pipeline. External corrosion on pipeline is controlled with a combination of coatings and cathodic protection while internal corrosion is controlled with a combination of chemical inhibitors, periodic cleaning and process control. The monitoring and inspection techniques provide a way to measure the effectiveness of corrosion control systems and provide an early warning when changing conditions may be causing a corrosion problem. This paper describes corrosion management system used in Mellitah Oil & Gas BV for its gas transmission pipeline based on standard practices of corrosion mitigation and inspection.

Keywords: corrosion mitigation on gas transmission pipelines, pipeline integrity management, corrosion management of gas pipelines, prevention and inspection of corrosion

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Authors: David Glew, Felix Thomas, Matthew Brooke-Peat

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Improving the thermal performance of homes is seen as an essential step in achieving climate change, fuel security, fuel poverty targets. One of the most effective thermal retrofits is to insulate solid walls. However, it has been observed that applying insulation to the internal face of solid walls reduces the surface temperature of the inner wall leaf, which may introduce condensation risk and may interrupt seasonal moisture accumulation and dissipation. This research quantifies the extent to which the risk of condensation and moisture accumulation in the wall increases (which can increase the risk of timber rot) following the installation of six different types of internal wall insulation. In so doing, it compares how risk is affected by both the thermal resistance, thickness, and breathability of the insulation. Thermal bridging, surface temperatures, condensation risk, and moisture accumulation are evaluated using hygrothermal simulation software before and after the thermal upgrades. The research finds that installing internal wall insulation will always introduce some risk of condensation and moisture. However, it identifies that risks were present prior to insulation and that breathable materials and insulation with lower resistance have lower risks than alternative insulation options. The implications of this may be that building standards that encourage the enhanced thermal performance of solid walls may be introducing moisture risks into homes.

Keywords: condensation risk, hygrothermal simulation, internal wall insulation, thermal bridging

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Authors: Mohammad Lemar Zalmai, Osman Hurol Turkakin, Cemil Akcay, Ekrem Manisali

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Most of the construction projects are exposed to time and cost overruns due to various factors and this is a major problem. As a solution to this, the Earned Value Management (EVM) method is considered. EVM is a powerful and well-known method used in monitoring and controlling the project. EVM is a technique that project managers use to track the performance of their project against project baselines. EVM gives an early indication that either project is delayed or not, and the project is either over budget or under budget at any particular day by tracking it. Thus, it helps to improve the management control system of a construction project, to detect and control the problems in potential risk areas and to suggest the importance and purpose of monitoring the construction work. This paper explains the main parameters of the EVM system involved in the calculation of time and cost for construction projects. In this study, the project management software Primavera P6 is used to deals with the project monitoring process of a seven-storeyed (G+6) faculty building whose construction is in progress at Istanbul, Turkey. A comparison between the planned progress of construction activities and actual progress is performed, and the analysis results are interpreted. This case study justifies the benefits of using EVM for project cash flow analysis and forecasting.

Keywords: earned value management (EVM), construction cost management, construction planning, primavera P6, project management, project scheduling

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Authors: Hunachew Beyene Mengesha, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw

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Owing to the dramatic expansion of universities in Ethiopia, understanding the composition and nature of solid waste at the source of generation plays an important role in designing a program for an integrated waste management program. In this study, we report the quantity, quality and recycling potential of the waste generated in the three campuses of the Hawassa University, Southern Ethiopia. A total of 3.5 tons of waste was generated per day in the three campuses of the university. More than 95% of the waste constituents were with potential to be recovered. It was a lesson from the study that there was no source reduction, recycling, composting, proper land filling or incineration practices in-place. The considerably high waste generation associated with the expansion of educational programs in the university appears worthwhile requiring implementation of programs for an integrated solid waste management to minimize health risk to humans and reduce environmental implications as a result of improper handling and disposal of wastes.

Keywords: Hawassa University, integrated solid waste management, solid waste generation, energy management, waste management

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

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In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis

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Authors: Nuruddeen Usman, Usman Mohammed Gidado, Muhammad Ahmad Ibrahim

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Construction industry is one of the sectors that are eyeing adoption of ICT for its development due to the advancement in technology. Though, many manufacturing sectors had been using it, but construction industry was left behind, especially in the developing nation like Nigeria. On account of that, the objective of this study is to conceptually and quantitatively synthesise whether the slow adoption of ICT by the construction industries can be attributable to cybercrime threats. The result of the investigation found that, the risk of cybercrime, and lack of adequate cyber security policies that can enforce and punish defaulters are among the things that hinder ICT adoption of the Nigerian construction industries. Therefore, there is need for the nations to educate their citizens on cybercrime risk, and to establish cybercrime police units that can be monitoring and controlling all online communications.

Keywords: construction industry, cybercrime, information and communication technology adoption, risk

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.

Keywords: human vulnerabilities, human security, immediate-inert, material-immaterial, timespace

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Authors: Duygu Dere, Mert Ergeneci, Kaan Gokcesu

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Google Trends data has gained increasing popularity in the applications of behavioral finance, decision science and risk management. Because of Google’s wide range of use, the Trends statistics provide significant information about the investor sentiment and intention, which can be used as decisive factors for corporate and risk management fields. However, an anomaly, a significant increase or decrease, in a certain query cannot be detected by the state of the art applications of computation due to the random baseline noise of the Trends data, which is modelled as an Additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN). Since through time, the baseline noise power shows a gradual change an adaptive thresholding method is required to track and learn the baseline noise for a correct classification. To this end, we introduce an online method to classify meaningful deviations in Google Trends data. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our method can successfully classify various anomalies for plenty of different data.

Keywords: adaptive data processing, behavioral finance , convex optimization, online learning, soft minimum thresholding

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Authors: Kuan-Chou Chen

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This paper will demonstrate a simulation model of an information security system by using the systems dynamic approach. The relationships in the system model are designed to be simple and functional and do not necessarily represent any particular information security environments. The purpose of the paper aims to develop a generic system dynamic information security system model with implications on information security research. The interrelated and interdependent relationships of five primary sectors in the system dynamic model will be presented in this paper. The integrated information security systems model will include (1) information security characteristics, (2) users, (3) technology, (4) business functions, and (5) policy and management. Environments, attacks, government and social culture will be defined as the external sector. The interactions within each of these sectors will be depicted by system loop map as well. The proposed system dynamic model will not only provide a conceptual framework for information security analysts and designers but also allow information security managers to remove the incongruity between the management of risk incidents and the management of knowledge and further support information security managers and decision makers the foundation for managerial actions and policy decisions.

Keywords: system thinking, information security systems, security management, simulation

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Authors: Lejla Sunagic

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The aim of the manuscript is to further the understanding of risky decision-making in the context of forced and irregular migration. The empirical evidence is collected through interviews with Syrian refugees who arrived in Europe via irregular pathways. Analytically, it has been approached through the juxtaposition between risk perception and the notion of desire. As different frameworks have been developed to address differences in risk perception, the common thread was the understanding that individual risk-taking has been addressed in terms of benefits outweighing risks. However, this framework cannot explain a big risk an individual takes because of an underprivileged position and due to a lack of positive alternatives, termed as risk-taking from vulnerability. The accounts of the field members of this study that crossed the sea in rubber boats to arrive in Europe make an empirical fit to such a postulate by reporting that the risk they have taken was not the choice but the only coping strategy. However, the vulnerability argument falls short of explaining why the interviewees, thinking retrospectively, find the risky journey they have taken to be worth it, while they would strongly advise others to restrain from taking such a huge risk. This inconsistency has been addressed by adding the notion of desire to migrate to the elements of risk perception. Desire, as a subjective experience, was what made the risk appear smaller in cost-benefit analysis at the time of decision-making of those who have realized migration. However, when they reflect on others in the context of potential migration via the same pathway, the interviewees addressed the others’ lack of capacity to avoid the same obstacles that they themselves were able to circumvent while omitting to reflect on others’ desire to migrate. Thus, in the risk-benefit analysis performed for others, the risk remains unblurred and tips over the benefits, given the inability to take into account the desire of others. If desire, as the transformative potential of migration, is taken out of the cost-benefit analysis of irregular migration, refugees might not have taken the risky journey. By casting the theoretical argument in the language of configuration, the study is filling in the gap of knowledge on the combination of migration drivers and the way they interact and produce migration outcomes.

Keywords: refugees, risk perception, desire, irregular migration

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Authors: Narumon Piaseu

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This survey research was aimed to describe and compare consumption behavior of health risk food among students in Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Sample included 400 undergraduate students enrolled in the first semester of 2008 academic year. Data were collected by using self reported questionnaire developed by the researcher. Data were then analyzed by descriptive statistics including frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and inferential statistics including independent t-test, and Oneway ANOVA. Results revealed that most of the sample were women (67%), enrolled in social related programs (74%). Approximately half of them (45.5%) stayed in dormitory. The mean of monthly income was 5,164 Baht and daily food expenditure was 114.55 Baht. Majority of them (83%) had ready-to-eat food. A major factor influencing their food selection was their parents (61%). A main reason for their food selection was food that looks good (70.75%). Almost half of them (46.25%) had heavy exercise less than 3 times per week. Regarding knowledge on health risk food, 43.5% of the sample had good knowledge. The followings were moderate (41%) and poor (41%). Most of the sample (60.75%) had consumption behavior at low risk. The following was at moderate risk (37.25%). Only 2% were at high risk. Among the sample, consumption behavior of health risk food were significantly different in years of study (F = 3.168, p = .024), daily food expenditure (F = 8.950, p <.001), and knowledge on health risk food (F = 37.856, p <.001), while no significant difference in consumption behavior of health risk food was found in those with a difference in gender, program of study, living place, and monthly income. Results indicate the importance of providing knowledge regarding health risk food for students and their parents in order to promote appropriate food consumption behavior among the students.

Keywords: food consumption, risky behavior, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, health risk

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Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

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This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, stock return, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran stock exchange, TSE

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Askarizadeh

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To meet the challenges of the new global environment, companies have started paying great attention towards quality management as an integral part of their strategic business plans. The purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship between total quality management (TQM) and knowledge management (KM). Successful total quality management implementation throughout the organizations requires major changes in the main four aspects of knowledge management, namely: Creating, storage, sharing and application. Skill, knowledge and productivity are important factors in organization’s success and have important role. Therefore, TQM management system pays special attention to it. However, knowledge as the source is essential for organization’s survival. Our study points out how the quality management and knowledge management have been incorporated into each other for the development of the quality culture within the organization.

Keywords: knowledge management (KM), total quality management (TQM), organizational performance (OP), deming cycle

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Authors: Mathias Linden, André Schneider, Harald F. O. von Korflesch

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The risk of train accidents is an ongoing concern for railway organizations, governments, insurance companies and other depended sectors. Safety technologies are installed to reduce and to prevent potential damages of train accidents. Since the budgetary for the safety of railway organizations is limited, it is necessary not only to achieve a high availability and high safety standard but also to be cost effective. Therefore, an economic assessment of safety technologies is fundamental to create an accurate risk analysis. In order to conduct an economical assessment of a railway safety technology and a quantification of the costs of the accident causes, the Global Railway Accident Database & Evaluation (GRADE) has been developed. The aim of this paper is to describe the structure of this accident database and to show how it can be used for risk analyses. A number of risk analysis methods, such as the probabilistic safety assessment method (PSA), was used to demonstrate this accident database’s different possibilities of risk analysis. In conclusion, it can be noted that these analyses would not be as accurate without GRADE. The information gathered in the accident database was not available in this way before. Our findings are relevant for railway operators, safety technology suppliers, assurances, governments and other concerned railway organizations.

Keywords: accident causes, accident costs, accident database, global railway accident database & evaluation, GRADE, probabilistic safety assessment, PSA, railway accidents, risk analysis

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Authors: N. S. Kubanza, D. Simatele, D. K. Das

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The purpose of this paper is to understand the urban environmental problems in Kinshasa and the consequences of these for the poor. This paper particularly examines the concept of environmental injustice in solid waste management in Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The urban low-income communities in Kinshasa face multiple consequences of poor solid waste management associated with unhealthy living conditions. These situations stemmed from overcrowding, poor sanitary, accumulation of solid waste, resulting in the prevalence of water and air borne diseases. Using a mix of reviewed archival records, scholarly literature, a semi-structured interview conducted with the local community members and qualitative surveys among stakeholders; it was found that solid waste management challenge in Kinshasa is not only an environmental and health risk issues, but also, a problem that generates socio-spatial disparities in the distribution of the solid waste burden. It is argued in the paper that the urban poor areas in Kinshasa are often hardest affected by irregularities of waste collection. They lack sanitary storage capacities and have undermined organizational capacity for collective action within solid waste management. In view of these observations, this paper explores mechanisms and stakeholders’ engagement necessary to lessen environmental injustice in solid waste management (SWM) in Kinshasa.

Keywords: environmental justice, solid waste management, urban environmental problems, urban poor

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Authors: Hossein Hassani, Ali Rezaei

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In recent years, the study of soil contamination problems surrounding mines and smelting plants has attracted some serious attention of the environmental experts. These elements due to the non- chemical disintegration and nature are counted as environmental stable and durable contaminants. Variability of these contaminants in the soil and the time and financial limitation for the favorable environmental application, in order to reduce the risk of their irreparable negative consequences on environment, caused to apply the favorable grading of these contaminant for the further success of the risk management processes. In this study, we use the contaminants factor risk indices, average concentration, enrichment factor and geoaccumulation indices for evaluating the metal contaminant of including Pb, Ni, Se, Mo and Zn in the soil of Sarcheshmeh copper mine area. For this purpose, 120 surface soil samples up to the depth of 30 cm have been provided from the study area. And the metals have been analyzed using ICP-MS method. Comparison of the heavy and potentially toxic elements concentration in the soil samples with the world average value of the uncontaminated soil and shale average indicates that the value of Zn, Pb, Ni, Se and Mo is higher than the world average value and only the Ni element shows the lower value than the shale average. Expert opinions on the relative importance of each indicators were used to assign a final weighting of the metals and the heavy metals were ranked using the TOPSIS approach. This allows us to carry out efficient environmental proceedings, leading to the reduction of environmental ricks form the contaminants. According to the results, Ni, Pb, Mo, Zn, and Se have the highest rate of risk contamination in the soil samples of the study area.

Keywords: contamination coefficient, geoaccumulation factor, TOPSIS techniques, Sarcheshmeh copper complex

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Djamil Aïssani

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Risk models, recently studied in the literature, are becoming increasingly complex. It is rare to find explicit analytical relations to calculate the ruin probability. Indeed, the stability issue occurs naturally in ruin theory, when parameters in risk cannot be estimated than with uncertainty. However, in most cases, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probability. Hence, the interest to obtain explicit stability bounds for these probabilities in different risk models. In this paper, we interest to the stability bounds of the univariate classical risk model established using the regenerative processes approach. By adopting an algorithmic approach, we implement this approximation and determine numerically the bounds of ruin probability in the case of large claims (heavy-tailed distribution).

Keywords: heavy-tailed distribution, large claims, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, stability

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Authors: Mohamed El-Bady

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The Northern Egyptian Lagoons are (from east to west) Bardawil Lagoon, Manzala Lagoon, Burullus Lagoon, Edku Lagoons and Mariute Lagoon. These lagoons have been received the bulk of drainage water from the lands of Delta and from the other coastal areas. Where, the heavy metals can occur in Lagoons environments through a variety of sources, including industries, wastewaters and domestic effluents. The potential ecological risk index (RI) calculation of the bottom sediments of the northern lagoons depends on contamination factor (CF), potential ecological risk factor and proposed toxic response factor (Tr). Each lagoon with special indices according to its conditions.

Keywords: Northern Lagoons, Nile Delta, ecological risk index, contamination factor

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Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

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Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

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Authors: Hui-Chi Huang, Su-Ju Yang, Ching-Wei Lin, Jui-Yao Tsai, Liang-Yiang

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Background: The most common serious complication following acute stroke is pneumonia. It has been associated with the increased morbidity, mortality, and medical cost after acute stroke in elderly patients. Purpose: The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate the relationship between stroke patients, risk factors of pneumonia, and one-year survival rates in a group of patients, in a tertiary referal center in Northern Taiwan. Methods: From January 2012 to December 2013, a total of 1730 consecutively administered stroke patients were recruited. The Survival analysis and multivariate regression analyses were used to examine the predictors for the one-year survival in stroke patients of a stroke registry database from northern Taiwan. Results: The risk of stroke mortality increased with age≧ 75 (OR=2.305, p < .0001), cancer (OR=3.221, p=<.0001), stayed in intensive care unit (ICU) (OR=2.28, p <.0006), dysphagia (OR=5.026, p<.0001), without speech therapy(OR=0.192, p < .0001),serum albumin < 2.5(OR=0.322, p=.0053) , eGFR > 60(OR=0.438, p <. 0001), admission NIHSS >11(OR=1.631, p=.0196), length of hospitalization (d) > 30(OR=0.608, p=.0227), and stroke subtype (OR=0.506, p=.0032). After adjustment of confounders, pneumonia was not significantly associated with the risk of mortality. However, it is most likely to develop in patients who are age ≧ 75, dyslipidemia , coronary artery disease , albumin < 2.5 , eGFR <60 , ventilator use , stay in ICU , dysphagia, without speech therapy , urinary tract infection , Atrial fibrillation , Admission NIHSS > 11, length of hospitalization > 30(d) , stroke severity (mRS=3-5) ,stroke Conclusion: In this study, different from previous research findings, we found that elderly age, severe neurological deficit and rehabilitation therapy were significantly associated with Post-stroke Pneumonia. However, specific preventive strategies are needed to target the high risk groups to improve their long-term outcomes after acute stroke. These findings could open new avenues in the management of stroke patients.

Keywords: stroke, risk, pneumonia, survival

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety-critical incident to raise awareness of biases in the systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors, and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the methodology used to model and analyze the safety-critical incident. The SIRI methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the management oversight and risk tree technique. The benefits of the systems for investigation of railway interfaces methodology (SIRI) are threefold: first is that it incorporates the “Heuristics and Biases” approach advanced by 2002 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, Prof Daniel Kahneman, in the management oversight and risk tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of the role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling techniques. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organizational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signaling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons are learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner's and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision-making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 systems engineering standard and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and artificial intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach

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Authors: Benedicta Asante, Catherine Trask, Brenna Bath

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Background: Waste Collection Workers’ (WCWs) activities contribute greatly to the recycling sector and are an important component of the waste management industry. As the recycling sector evolves, there is the increase in reports of injuries, particularly for common and debilitating musculoskeletal disorders such as low back disorder (LBD). WCWs are likely exposed to diverse work-related hazards that could contribute to LBD. However, there is currently no summary of the state of knowledge on the prevalence and risk factors of LBD within this workforce. Method: A comprehensive search was conducted in Ovid Medline, EMBASE, and Global Health e-publications with search term categories ‘low back disorder’ and ‘waste collection workers’. Two reviewers screened articles at title, abstract, and full-text stages. Data were extracted on study design, sampling strategy, socio-demographics, geographical region, and exposure definition, the definition of LBD, response rate, statistical techniques, LBD prevalence and risk factors. The risk of bias was assessed with a standardized tool. Results: The search of three databases generated 79 studies. Thirty-two studies met the study inclusion criteria for both title and abstract; only thirteen full-text articles met the study criteria and underwent data extraction. The majority of articles reported a 12-month prevalence of LBD between 16-74%. Although none of the included studies quantified relationships between risk factors and LBD, the suggested risk factors for LBD among WCWs included: awkward posture; lifting; pulling; pushing; repetitive motions; work duration; and physical loads. Conclusion: LBD is a major occupational health issue among WCWs. In light of these risks and future growth in this industry, further research should focus on the investigation of risk factors, with more focus on ergonomic exposure assessment, and LBD prevention efforts.

Keywords: low back pain, scavenger, waste pickers, waste collection workers

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Authors: Ghanima Al-Sharrah, Haitham M. Lababidi, Yusuf I. Ali

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The main objective of the current work is to introduce sustainability factors in optimizing the supply chain model for process industries. The supply chain models are normally based on purely economic considerations related to costs and profits. To account for sustainability, two additional factors have been introduced; environment and risk. A supply chain for an entire petroleum organization has been considered for implementing and testing the proposed optimization models. The environmental and risk factors were introduced as indicators reflecting the anticipated impact of the optimal production scenarios on sustainability. The aggregation method used in extending the single objective function to multi-objective function is proven to be quite effective in balancing the contribution of each objective term. The results indicate that introducing sustainability factor would slightly reduce the economic benefit while improving the environmental and risk reduction performances of the process industries.

Keywords: environmental indicators, optimization, risk, supply chain

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Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi

Abstract:

To ensure the overall coherence of simulated results, it is necessary to develop a robust validation process. In many applications, it is no longer content to calibrate and validate the model only in relation to the hydro graph measured at the outlet, but we try to better simulate the functioning of the watershed in space. Therefore the timing also performs compared to other variables such as water level measurements in intermediate stations or groundwater levels. As part of this work, we limit ourselves to modeling flood of short duration for which the process of evapotranspiration is negligible. The main parameters to identify the models are related to the method of unit hydro graph (HU). Three different models were tested: SNYDER, CLARK and SCS. These models differ in their mathematical structure and parameters to be calibrated while hydrological data are the same, the initial water content and precipitation. The models are compared on the basis of their performance in terms six objective criteria, three global criteria and three criteria representing volume, peak flow, and the mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to strong events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent and also highlight the problems associated with the simulation of low flow events and intermittent precipitation.

Keywords: model calibration, intensity, runoff, hydrograph

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Authors: Abhinav Bajpayee, Shubham Damke, Rupal Ranjan, Neha Bharti

Abstract:

Polymer flooding is a dramatic improvement in water flooding and quickly becoming one of the EOR technologies. Used for improving oil recovery. With the increasing energy demand and depleting oil reserves EOR techniques are becoming increasingly significant .Since most oil fields have already begun water flooding, chemical EOR technique can be implemented by using fewer resources than any other EOR technique. Polymer helps in increasing the viscosity of injected water thus reducing water mobility and hence achieves a more stable displacement .Polymer flooding helps in increasing the injection viscosity as has been revealed through field experience. While the injection of a polymer solution improves reservoir conformance the beneficial effect ceases as soon as one attempts to push the polymer solution with water. It is most commonly applied technique because of its higher success rate. In polymer flooding, a water-soluble polymer such as Polyacrylamide is added to the water in the water flood. This increases the viscosity of the water to that of a gel making the oil and water greatly improving the efficiency of the water flood. It also improves the vertical and areal sweep efficiency as a consequence of improving the water/oil mobility ratio. Polymer flooding plays an important role in oil exploitation, but around 60 million ton of wastewater is produced per day with oil extraction together. Therefore the treatment and reuse of wastewater becomes significant which can be carried out by electro dialysis technology. This treatment technology can not only decrease environmental pollution, but also achieve closed-circuit of polymer flooding wastewater during crude oil extraction. There are three potential ways in which a polymer flood can make the oil recovery process more efficient: (1) through the effects of polymers on fractional flow, (2) by decreasing the water/oil mobility ratio, and (3) by diverting injected water from zones that have been swept. It has also been suggested that the viscoelastic behavior of polymers can improve displacement efficiency Polymer flooding may also have an economic impact because less water is injected and produced compared with water flooding. In future we need to focus on developing polymers that can be used in reservoirs of high temperature and high salinity, applying polymer flooding in different reservoir conditions and also combine polymer with other processes (e.g., surfactant/ polymer flooding).

Keywords: fractional flow, polymer, viscosity, water/oil mobility ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Wisdom Robert Duruji, Moses Kanayochukwu Ifoh, Efeoghene Edward Esiemunobo

Abstract:

This study examines the impact of natural and artificial disasters, lackadaisical and semantic approach in risk management, and mitigation implication for sustainable development goals in Nigeria, from 2009 to 2022. The study utilizes a range of research methods to achieve its objectives. These include literature review, website knowledge, Google search, news media information, academic journals, field-work and on-site observations. These diverse methods allow for a comprehensive analysis on the impact and the implications being study. The study finds that paradigm shift from remediating seismic, flooding, environmental pollution and degradation natural disasters by Nigeria Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), to political and charity organization; has plunged risk reduction strategies to embezzling opportunities. However, this lackadaisical and semantic approach in natural disaster mitigation, invariably replicates artificial disasters in Nigeria through: Boko Haram terrorist organization, Fulani herdsmen and farmers conflicts, political violence, kidnapping for ransom, ethnic conflicts, Religious dichotomy, insurgency, secession protagonists, unknown-gun-men, and banditry. This study also, finds that some Africans still engage in self-imposed slavery through human trafficking, by nefariously stow-away to Europe; through Libya, Sahara desert and Mediterranean sea; in search for job opportunities, due to ineptitude in governance by their leaders; a perilous journey that enhanced artificial disasters in Nigeria. That artificial disaster fatality in Nigeria increased from about 5,655 in 2009 to 114,318 in 2018; and to 157,643 in 2022. However, financial and material loss of about $9.29 billion was incurred in Nigeria due to natural disaster, while about $70.59 billion was accrued due to artificial disaster; from 2009 to 2018. Although disaster risk mitigation and politics can synergistically support sustainable development goals; however, they are different entities, and need for distinct separations in Nigeria, as in reality and perception. This study concluded that referendum should be conducted in Nigeria, to ascertain its current status as a nation. Therefore it is recommended that Nigerian governments should refine its naturally endowed crude oil locally; to end fuel subsidy scam, corruption and poverty in Nigeria!

Keywords: corruption, crude oil, environmental risk analysis, Nigeria, referendum, terrorism

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Authors: Kazuki Kohama, Hiroko Ono

Abstract:

The rainfall in Japan is gradually increasing every year according to Japan Meteorological Agency and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. It means that the rainfall difference between rainy season and non-rainfall is increasing. In addition, the increasing trend of strong rain for a short time clearly appears. In recent years, natural disasters have caused enormous human injuries in various parts of Japan. Regarding water disaster, local heavy rain and floods of large rivers occur frequently, and it was decided on a policy to promote hard and soft sides as emergency disaster prevention measures with water disaster prevention awareness social reconstruction vision. Okinawa prefecture in subtropical region has torrential rain and water disaster several times a year such as river flood, in which is caused in specific rivers from all 97 rivers. Also, the shortage of capacity and narrow width are characteristic of river in Okinawa and easily cause river flood in heavy rain. This study focuses on Kohatu River that is one of the specific rivers. In fact, the water level greatly rises over the river levee almost once a year but non-damage of buildings around. On the other hand in some case, the water level reaches to ground floor height of house and has happed nine times until today. The purpose of this research is to figure out relationship between precipitation, surface outflow and total treatment water quantity of Kohatu River. For the purpose, we perform hydrological analysis although is complicated and needs specific details or data so that, the method is mainly using Geographic Information System software and outflow analysis system. At first, we extract watershed and then divided to 23 catchment areas to understand how much surface outflow flows to runoff point in each 10 minutes. On second, we create Unit Hydrograph indicating the area of surface outflow with flow area and time. This index shows the maximum amount of surface outflow at 2400 to 3000 seconds. Lastly, we compare an estimated value from Unit Hydrograph to a measured value. However, we found that measure value is usually lower than measured value because of evaporation and transpiration. In this study, hydrograph analysis was performed using GIS software and outflow analysis system. Based on these, we could clarify the flood time and amount of surface outflow.

Keywords: disaster prevention, water disaster, river flood, GIS software

Procedia PDF Downloads 137