Search results for: deaths rate

Authors: L. Grinis, N. Lubashevsky, Y. Ostrovski

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In waste water treatment processes, aeration introduces air into a liquid. In these systems, air is introduced by different devices submerged in the waste water. Smaller bubbles result in more bubble surface area per unit of volume and higher oxygen transfer efficiency. Jet pumps are devices that use air bubbles and are widely used in waste water treatment processes. The principle of jet pumps is their ability to transfer energy of one fluid, called primary or motive, into a secondary fluid or gas. These pumps have no moving parts and are able to work in remote areas under extreme conditions. The objective of this work is to study experimentally the characteristics of the jet pump and the size of air bubbles in the laboratory water tank. The effect of flow rate ratio on pump performance is investigated in order to have a better understanding about pump behavior under various conditions, in order to determine the efficiency of receiving air bubbles different sizes. The experiments show that we should take care when increasing the flow rate ratio while seeking to decrease bubble size in the outlet flow. This study will help improve and extend the use of the jet pump in many practical applications.

Keywords: jet pump, air bubbles size, retention time, waste water

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Authors: Natalia M. Acevedo, Luis M. Jimenez, Erick Lambis

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Imperfections in the capital market are used to argue the relevance of the corporate risk management function. With corporate hedge, the value of the company is increased by reducing the volatility of the expected cash flow and making it possible to face a lower bankruptcy costs and financial difficulties, without sacrificing tax advantages for debt financing. With the propose to avoid exchange rate troubles over cash flows of Colombian exporting firms, this dissertation uses financial options, over exchange rate between Peso and Dollar, for realizing a financial hedge. In this study, a strategy of hedge is designed for an exporting company in Colombia with the objective of preventing fluctuations because, if the exchange rate down, the number of Colombian pesos that obtains the company by exports, is less than agreed. The exchange rate of Colombia is measured by the TRM (Representative Market Rate), representing the number of Colombian pesos for an American dollar. First, the TMR is modelled through the Geometric Brownian Motion, with this, the project price is simulated using Montecarlo simulations and finding the mean of TRM for three, six and twelve months. For financial hedging, currency options were used. The 6-month projection was covered with financial options on European-type currency with a strike price of $ 2,780.47 for each month; this value corresponds to the last value of the historical TRM. In the compensation of the options in each month, the price paid for the premium, calculated with the Black-Scholes method for currency options, was considered. Finally, with the modeling of prices and the Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of the exchange hedging with options on the exporting company was determined, this by means of the unit price estimate to which the dollars in the scenario without coverage were changed and scenario with coverage. After using the scenarios: is determinate that the TRM will have a bull trend and the exporting firm will be affected positively because they will get more pesos for each dollar. The results show that the financial options manage to reduce the exchange risk. The expected value with coverage is approximate to the expected value without coverage, but the 5% percentile with coverage is greater than without coverage. The foregoing indicates that in the worst scenarios the exporting companies will obtain better prices for the sale of the currencies if they cover.

Keywords: currency hedging, futures, geometric Brownian motion, options

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Authors: Welawat Tienpratarn, Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Kasamon Aramvanitch, Karn Suttapanit, Yahya Mankong, Nussareen Yaemluksanalert, Sansanee Meesawad

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Introduction : Application of a rigid cervical collar may interfere with the laryngeal view, and potentially lead to failed endotracheal intubation (ETI). This study aimed to compare intubation success rates while performing inline stabilization with and without cervical hard collar. Methods : This randomized prospective comparative study included paramedics working in the Department of Emergency Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand to compare the success rates of endotracheal intubation on manikin using inline stabilization with and without cervical hard collar. Results : 125 participants were evaluated; 63 in the rigid cervical collar and 62 in the non-cervical hard collar group. The rate of successful intubation was significantly higher using manual stabilization without cervical hard collar (61 (96.8%) vs. 55 (88.7%); p=0.048). The time required to successfully perform intubation was also shorter, with manual stabilization only (14.1 ±20.9 vs. 18.9±29.0; p = 0.081). Conclusion : It seems that, removal of the rigid cervical collar during ETI in patients with suspected traumatic spine injury could increase the intubation success rate.

Keywords: ntubation, Intratracheal, Spinal Injuries, Multiple trauma

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Authors: A. Kaćunić, M. Ćosić, N. Kuzmanić

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Interaction between mixing and crystallization is often ignored despite the fact that it affects almost every aspect of the operation including nucleation, growth, and maintenance of the crystal slurry. This is especially pronounced in multiple impeller systems where flow complexity is increased. By choosing proper mixing parameters, what closely depends on the knowledge of the hydrodynamics in a mixing vessel, the process of batch cooling crystallization may considerably be improved. The values that render useful information when making this choice are mixing time and power consumption. The predominant motivation for this work was to investigate the extent to which radial dual impeller configuration influences mixing time, power consumption and consequently the values of metastable zone width and nucleation rate. In this research, crystallization of borax was conducted in a 15 dm3 baffled batch cooling crystallizer with an aspect ratio (H/T) of 1.3. Mixing was performed using two straight blade turbines (4-SBT) mounted on the same shaft that generated radial fluid flow. Experiments were conducted at different values of N/NJS ratio (impeller speed/ minimum impeller speed for complete suspension), D/T ratio (impeller diameter/crystallizer diameter), c/D ratio (lower impeller off-bottom clearance/impeller diameter), and s/D ratio (spacing between impellers/impeller diameter). Mother liquor was saturated at 30°C and was cooled at the rate of 6°C/h. Its concentration was monitored in line by Na-ion selective electrode. From the values of supersaturation that was monitored continuously over process time, it was possible to determine the metastable zone width and subsequently the nucleation rate using the Mersmann’s nucleation criterion. For all applied dual impeller configurations, the mixing time was determined by potentiometric method using a pulse technique, while the power consumption was determined using a torque meter produced by Himmelstein & Co. Results obtained in this investigation show that dual impeller configuration significantly influences the values of mixing time, power consumption as well as the metastable zone width and nucleation rate. A special attention should be addressed to the impeller spacing considering the flow interaction that could be more or less pronounced depending on the spacing value.

Keywords: dual impeller crystallizer, mixing time, power consumption, metastable zone width, nucleation rate

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Authors: Zeytu G. Asfaw, Serkalem K. Abrha, Demisew G. Degefu

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Background: HIV/AIDS remains a major public health problem in Ethiopia and heavily affecting people of productive and reproductive age. We aimed to compare the performance of Parametric Survival Analysis and Bayesian Survival Analysis using simulations and in a real dataset application focused on determining predictors of HIV patient survival. Methods: A Parametric Survival Models - Exponential, Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Gompertz and Generalized gamma distributions were considered. Simulation study was carried out with two different algorithms that were informative and noninformative priors. A retrospective cohort study was implemented for HIV infected patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Alamata General Hospital, North Ethiopia. Results: A total of 320 HIV patients were included in the study where 52.19% females and 47.81% males. According to Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for the two sex groups, females has shown better survival time in comparison with their male counterparts. The median survival time of HIV patients was 79 months. During the follow-up period 89 (27.81%) deaths and 231 (72.19%) censored individuals registered. The average baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells count for HIV/AIDS patients were 126.01 but after a three-year antiretroviral therapy follow-up the average cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells counts were 305.74, which was quite encouraging. Age, functional status, tuberculosis screen, past opportunistic infection, baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells, World Health Organization clinical stage, sex, marital status, employment status, occupation type, baseline weight were found statistically significant factors for longer survival of HIV patients. The standard error of all covariate in Bayesian log-normal survival model is less than the classical one. Hence, Bayesian survival analysis showed better performance than classical parametric survival analysis, when subjective data analysis was performed by considering expert opinions and historical knowledge about the parameters. Conclusions: Thus, HIV/AIDS patient mortality rate could be reduced through timely antiretroviral therapy with special care on the potential factors. Moreover, Bayesian log-normal survival model was preferable than the classical log-normal survival model for determining predictors of HIV patients survival.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy (ART), Bayesian analysis, HIV, log-normal, parametric survival models

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Authors: Mbonigaba Swale

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Malaria is an infection or disease caused by parasites (Plasmodium Falciparum — causes severe Malaria, plasmodium Vivax, Plasmodium Ovale, and Plasmodium Malariae), transmitted by bites of infected anopheles (female) mosquitoes to humans. These vectors comprise of two types in Africa, particularly in Uganda, i.e. anopheles fenestus and Anopheles gambaie (‘example Anopheles arabiensis,,); feeds on man inside the house mainly at dusk, mid-night and dawn and rests indoors and makes them effective transmitters (vectors) of the disease. People in both urban and rural areas have consistently become prone to repetitive attacks of malaria, causing a lot of deaths and significantly increasing the poverty levels of the rural poor. Malaria is a national problem; it causes a lot of maternal pre-natal and antenatal disorders, anemia in pregnant mothers, low birth weights for the newly born, convulsions and epilepsy among the infants. Cumulatively, it kills about one million children every year in sub-Saharan Africa. It has been estimated to account for 25-35% of all outpatient visits, 20-45% of acute hospital admissions and 15-35% of hospital deaths. Uganda is the leading victim country, for which Rakai and Masaka districts are the most affected. So, it is not clear whether these abhorrent situations and episodes of recurrences and failure to cure from the disease are a result of poor diagnosis, prescription and dosing, treatment habits and compliance of the patients to the drugs or the ethical domain of the stake holders in relation to the main stream methodology of malaria management. The research is aimed at offering an alternative approach to manage and deal absolutely with problem by using a knowledge based software model of Artificial Intelligence (Al) that is capable of performing common-sense and cognitive reasoning so as to take decisions like the human brain would do to provide instantaneous expert solutions so as to avoid speculative simulation of the problem during differential diagnosis in the most accurate and literal inferential aspect. This system will assist physicians in many kinds of medical diagnosis, prescribing treatments and doses, and in monitoring patient responses, basing on the body weight and age group of the patient, it will be able to provide instantaneous and timely information options, alternative ways and approaches to influence decision making during case analysis. The computerized system approach, a new model in Uganda termed as “Software Aided Treatment” (SAT) will try to change the moral and ethical approach and influence conduct so as to improve the skills, experience and values (social and ethical) in the administration and management of the disease and drugs (combination therapy and generics) by both the patient and the health worker.

Keywords: knowledge based software, management, treatment, diagnosis

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Authors: Azzam Alosaimi

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Different countries attempt to reduce energy demands and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions to mitigate global warming potential. They set different building codes to regulate excessive building’s energy losses. Energy losses occur due to pressure difference between the indoor and outdoor environments, and thus, heat transfers from one region to another. One major sources of energy loss is known as building airtightness. Building airtightness is the fundamental feature of the building envelope that directly impacts infiltration. Most of international building codes require minimum performance for new construction to ensure acceptable airtightness. The execution of airtightness required standards has become more challenging in recent years due to a lack of expertise and equipment, making it costly and time-consuming. Hence, researchers have developed predictive models to predict buildings infiltration rates to meet building codes and to reduce energy and cost. This research applies a theoretical modeling approach using Matlab software to predict mean infiltration rate distributions and total heat loss of Saudi Arabia’s housing stock.

Keywords: infiltration rate, energy demands, heating loss, cooling loss, carbon emissions

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Authors: Kweon Oh-Sang, Kim Heung-Youl

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Estimating the engineering properties of fires is important to be prepared for the complex and various fire risks of large-scale structures such as super-tall buildings, large stadiums, and multi-purpose structures. In this study, a mock-up of a compartment which was 2.4(L) x 3.6 (W) x 2.4 (H) meter in dimensions was fabricated at the 10MW LSC (Large Scale Calorimeter) and combustible office supplies were placed in the compartment for a real-scale fire test. Maximum heat release rate was 4.1 MW and total energy release obtained through the application of t2 fire growth rate was 6705.9 MJ.

Keywords: fire growth, fire experiment, t2 curve, large scale calorimeter

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Authors: Lyndsey Kim

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We utilized country-level data on suicide rates from 1985 through 2015 provided by the WHO to explore global trends as well as country-specific trends. First, we find that up until 1995, there was an increase in suicide rates globally, followed by a steep decline in deaths. This observation is largely driven by the data from Europe, where suicides are prominent but steadily declining. Second, men are more likely to commit suicide than women across the world over the years. Third, the older generation is more likely to commit suicide than youth and adults. Finally, we turn to Durkheim’s theory and use it as a lens to understand trends in suicide across time and countries and attempt to identify social and economic events that might explain patterns that we observe. For example, we discovered a drastically different pattern in suicide rates in the US, with a steep increase in suicides in the early 2000s. We hypothesize this might be driven by both the 9/11 attacks and the recession of 2008.

Keywords: suicide trends, current events, data analysis, world health organization, durkheim theory

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Authors: Emi Yuda, Yutaka Yoshida, Junichiro Hayano

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Distinct circadian rhythm of activity, i.e., high activity during the day and deep rest at night are a typical feature of a healthy lifestyle. Exposure to the skylight is thought to be an important factor to increase arousal level and maintain normal circadian rhythm. To examine whether sunshine hours influence the day-night contract of activity, we analyzed the relationship between 24-hour heart rate (HR) and weather data of the recording day. We analyzed data in 36,500 males and 49,854 females of Allostatic State Mapping by Ambulatory ECG Repository (ALLSTAR) database in Japan. Median (IQR) sunshine duration was 5.3 (2.8-7.9) hr. While sunshine hours had only modest effects of increasing 24-hour average HR in either gender (P=0.0282 and 0.0248 for male and female) and no significant effects on nighttime HR in either gender, it increased daytime HR (P = 0.0007 and 0.0015) and day-night HF difference in both genders (P < 0.0001 for both) even after adjusting for the effects of average temperature, atmospheric pressure, and humidity. Our observations support for the hypothesis that longer sunshine hours enhance circadian rhythm of activity.

Keywords: big data, circadian rhythm, heart rate, sunshine

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Authors: Jason M. Hegenauer, Nicholas Fucci

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In the late 1990s, a major deinstitutionalization movement of elderly patients took place, since which, the design of long-term care facilities has not been adequately analyzed in the United States. Over the course of the last 25 years, major innovations in construction methods, technology, and medicine have been developed, drastically changing the landscape of healthcare architecture. In light of recent events, and the expected increase in elderly populations with the aging of the baby-boomer generation, it is evident that reconsideration of these facilities is essential for the proper care of aging populations. The global response has been effective in stifling this pandemic; however, widespread disease still poses an imminent threat to the human race. Having witnessed the devastation Covid-19 has reaped throughout nursing homes and long-term care facilities, it is evident that the current strategies for protecting our most vulnerable populations are not enough. Light renovation of existing facilities and previously overlooked considerations for new construction projects can drastically lower the risk at nursing homes and long-term care facilities. A reconfigured entry sequence supplements several of the features which have been long-standing essentials of the design of these facilities. This research focuses on several aspects identified as needing improvement, including indoor environment quality, security measures incorporated into healthcare architecture and design, and architectural mitigation strategies for sick building syndrome. The results of this study have been compiled as 'best practices' for the design of future healthcare construction projects focused on the health, safety, and quality of life of the residents of these facilities. These design strategies, which can easily be implemented through renovation of existing facilities and new construction projects, minimize risk of infection and spread of disease while allowing routine functions to continue with minimal impact, should the need for future lockdowns arise. Through the current lockdown procedures, which were implemented during the Covid-19 pandemic, isolation of residents has caused great unrest and worry for family members and friends as they are cut off from their loved ones. At this time, data is still being reported, leaving infection and death rates inconclusive; however, recent projections in some states list long-term care facility deaths as high as 60% of all deaths in the state. The population of these facilities consists of residents who are elderly, immunocompromised, and have underlying chronic medical conditions. According to the Centers for Disease Control, these populations are particularly susceptible to infection and serious illness. The obligation to protect our most vulnerable population cannot be overlooked, and the harsh measures recently taken as a response to the Covid-19 pandemic prove that the design strategies currently utilized for doing so are inadequate.

Keywords: building security, healthcare architecture and design, indoor environment quality, new construction, sick building syndrome, renovation

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Authors: Chander Shekhar, Jeetendra Yadav, Shaziya Allarakha

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Hypertension has been described as an 'iceberg disease' as those who suffered are ignored and hence usually seek healthcare services at a very late stage. It is estimated that more than 2 million Indians are suffering from hypertensive heart disease that contributed to above 0.13 million deaths in 2016. The paper study aims to know the prevalence of Hypertension in India and its variation by socioeconomic backgrounds and to find out risk factors discriminating hypertension with special emphasis on consumption of tobacco and alcohol among men aged 15-54 years in India. The paper uses NFHS (2015-16) data. The paper used binary logistic regression and discriminant analysis to find significant predictors and discriminants of interest. The prevalence of hypertension was 16.5% in the study population. The results suggest that consumption of alcohol and tobacco are significant discriminant characteristics in carrying hypertension irrespective of what socioeconomic background characteristic he possesses.

Keywords: hypertention, alcohol, tobacco, discriminant

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Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

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How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: financial bubble detection, future return, forecasting, pairs trading, preferred stocks

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Authors: Al Ameen H., Rakesh P.

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To improve the combustion efficiency of fuels and to reduce the emissions of pollutants as well as to improve heat transfer characteristics of fuels, both non-metallic and metallic nanoparticles can be added into it. By varying the concentration and size of nano particles added into the fuels, behaviour of droplet combustion and hence heat generated can be altered. In case of solid or liquid fuels, surface area of the fuel in contact with oxidizer(gaseous) is small because of higher density compared to gases. If the surface area of fuel exposed to the oxidizer is very small, then the combustion will not occur, because the combustion rate is proportional to the surface area of fuel droplet. To avoid such instance there is a way to increase the exposed surface area. To increase the specific surface area available for reaction, the particle size can be reduced. If the additives are solid then by reducing the particles size the specific surface area of liquid fuel can be increased. For the liquid fuels the exposed surface area available for combustion can be increased by suspending nanoparticles. Addition of non-metallic and metallic nanoparticles in fuels improves its combustion efficiency by enhancing the thermo-physical properties. The burn rate constants and temperatures of Kerosene-Oxygen combustion for fuel droplet sizes of 50μm, 75μm, 100μm and 125μm under varying concentrations of 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% are studied numerically and its characteristic velocities are determined. Later the burn rate constants of fuel with concentrations of 0.5%, 1.0% and 2.0% by weight of aluminium nanoparticles are added. The spray combustion characteristics of such nano-fuel has improved the combustion temperature by the addition of aluminium nanoparticles. Thus, aluminium nanoparticles have improved burn rate and characteristic velocity of Kerosene-Oxygen combustion. An increase of 40% in characteristic velocity is observed.

Keywords: burn rate, characteristic velocity, combustion, thermo-physical properties

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Authors: Babak Bashari Rad

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A metamorphic computer virus uses different code transformation techniques to mutate its body in duplicated instances. Characteristics and function of new instances are mostly similar to their parents, but they cannot be easily detected by the majority of antivirus in market, as they depend on string signature-based detection techniques. The purpose of this research is to propose a Hidden Markov Model for classification of metamorphic viruses in executable files. In the proposed solution, portable executable files are inspected to extract the instructions opcodes needed for the examination of code. A Hidden Markov Model trained on portable executable files is employed to classify the metamorphic viruses of the same family. The proposed model is able to generate and recognize common statistical features of mutated code. The model has been evaluated by examining the model on a test data set. The performance of the model has been practically tested and evaluated based on False Positive Rate, Detection Rate and Overall Accuracy. The result showed an acceptable performance with high average of 99.7% Detection Rate.

Keywords: malware classification, computer virus classification, metamorphic virus, metamorphic malware, Hidden Markov Model

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Authors: Samad Lotfollahzadeh

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Escherichia coli (E.coli) is the most isolated bacteria from blood circulation of septicemic calves. Given the prevalence of septicemia in animals and its economic importance in veterinary practice, better understanding of changes in clinical signs following disease, may contribute to early detection of the disorder. The present study has been carried out to detect changes of clinical signs in induced sepsis in calves with E.coli. Colisepticemia has been induced in 10 twenty-day old healthy Holstein- Frisian calves with intravenous injection of 1.5 X 109 colony forming units (cfu) of O111: H8 strain of E.coli. Clinical signs including rectal temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, shock, appetite, sucking reflex, feces consistency, general behavior, dehydration and standing ability were recorded in experimental calves during 24 hours after induction of colisepticemia. Blood culture was also carried out from calves four times during the experiment. ANOVA with repeated measure is used to see changes of calves’ clinical signs to experimental colisepticemia, and values of P≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Mean values of rectal temperature and heart rate as well as median values of respiratory rate, appetite, suckling reflex, standing ability and feces consistency of experimental calves increased significantly during the study (P<0.05). In the present study, median value of shock score was not significantly increased in experimental calves (P> 0.05). The results of present study showed that total score of clinical signs in calves with experimental colisepticemia increased significantly, although the score of some clinical signs such as shock did not change significantly.

Keywords: calves, clinical signs scoring, E. coli O111:H8, experimental colisepticemia

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Authors: Dmitry Dikarev, Ajit Nimbalker, Alexei Davydov

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Polar coding is a novel example of error correcting codes, which can achieve Shannon limit at block length N→∞ with log-linear complexity. Active research is being carried to adopt this theoretical concept for using in practical applications such as 5th generation wireless communication systems. Cyclic redundancy check (CRC) error detection code is broadly used in conjunction with successive cancellation list (SCL) decoding algorithm to improve finite-length polar code performance. However, there are two issues: increase of code block payload overhead by CRC bits and decrease of CRC error-detection capability. This paper proposes a method to control CRC overhead and false alarm rate of polar decoding. As shown in the computer simulations results, the proposed method provides the ability to use any set of CRC polynomials with any list size while maintaining the desired level of false alarm rate. This level of flexibility allows using polar codes in 5G New Radio standard.

Keywords: 5G New Radio, channel coding, cyclic redundancy check, list decoding, polar codes

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Authors: Osamede Asowata

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The current resurgence of interest in the use of renewable energy is driven by the need to reduce the high environmental impact of fossil-based energy. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effect of a stationary PV panel on the charging rate of deep-cycle valve regulated lead-acid (DCVRLA) batteries. Stationary PV panels are set to a fixed tilt and orientation angle, which plays a major role in dictating the output power of a PV panel and subsequently on the charging time of a DCVRLA battery. In a basic PV system, an energy storage device that stores the power from the PV panel is necessary due to the fluctuating nature of the PV voltage caused by climatic conditions. The charging and discharging times of a DCVRLA battery were determined for a twelve month period from January through December 2012. Preliminary results, which include regression analysis (R2), conversion-time per week and work-time per day, indicate that a 36 degrees tilt angle produces a good charging rate for a latitude of 26 degrees south throughout the year.

Keywords: tilt and orientation angles, solar chargers, PV panels, storage devices, direct solar radiation.

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Authors: Liu Li, Kim Seng Lee, Li Lu

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The high-energy-density Li-rich layered materials are promising cathode materials for the next-generation high-performance lithium-ion batteries. They have attracted a lot of attentions due mainly to their high reversible capacity of more than 250 mAh•g-1 at low charge-discharge current. However several drawbacks still hinder their applications, such as voltage decay caused by an undesired phase transformation during cycling and poor rate capability. To conquer these issues, the authors applied F modification methods on the pristine Li1.2Mn0.54Ni0.13Co0.13O2 to enhance its electrochemical performance.

Keywords: Li-ion battery, Li-rich layered cathode material, phase transformation, cycling stability, rate capability

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Authors: Silas A. Ihedioha

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In this work; it is considered that an investor’s portfolio is comprised of two assets; a risky stock which price process is driven by the geometric Brownian motion and a risk-free asset with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Stochastic interest rate of return, where consumption, taxes, transaction costs and dividends are involved. This paper aimed at the optimization of the investor’s expected utility of consumption and terminal return on his investment at the terminal time having power utility preference. Using dynamic optimization procedure of maximum principle, a second order nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) (the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation HJB) was obtained from which an ordinary differential equation (ODE) obtained via elimination of variables. The solution to the ODE gave the closed form solution of the investor’s problem. It was found the optimal investment in the risky asset is horizon dependent and a ratio of the total amount available for investment and the relative risk aversion coefficient.

Keywords: optimal, investment, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, utility maximization, stochastic interest rate, maximum principle

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Authors: Risikat Oladoyin S. Dauda, Onyebuchi Iwegbu

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This study investigates the response of human development outcomes to selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. Human development outcomes is measured by human development index while the selected macroeconomic variables are inflation rate, real interest rate, government capital expenditure, real exchange rate, current account balance, and savings. Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) technique is employed in examining the response of human development index to the macroeconomic shocks. The result from the forecast error variance decomposition and Impulse-Response analysis reveals that fiscal policy (government capital expenditure) shock is the greatest determinant of human development outcomes. This result reiterates the role which the government plays in improving the welfare of the citizenry. The fiscal policy tool is pivotal in human development which comes in the form of investment in education, health, housing, and infrastructure. Further conclusion drawn from this study is that human development outcome positively and significantly responds to shocks from real interest rate, a monetary policy transmission variable and is felt greatly in the short run period. The policy implication of this study is that if capital budget implementation falls below expectations, human development will be engendered. Hence, efforts should be made to ensure that full implementation and appraisal of government capital expenditure is taken sacrosanct as any shock from such plan, engenders human development outcome.

Keywords: human development outcome, macroeconomic outcomes, structural vector autoregression, SVAR

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Authors: Lei Zhou, Chao Li, Ruiqi Ren, Dan Li, Yali Wang, Daxin Ni, Zijian Feng, Qun Li

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Background: Since the first human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) case was reported in China on 31 March 2013, five epidemics have been observed in China through February 2013 and September 2017. Though the overall mortality rate of H7N9 has remained as high as around 40% throughout the five epidemics, the specific mortality rate in Mainland China varied by provinces. We conducted a descriptive analysis of mortality rates of H7N9 cases to explore the various severity features of the disease and then to provide clues of further analyses of potential factors associated with the severity of the disease. Methods: The data for analysis originated from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Report and Surveillance System (NNIDRSS). The surveillance system and identification procedure for H7N9 infection have not changed in China since 2013. The definition of a confirmed H7N9 case is as same as previous reports. Mortality rates of H7N9 cases are described and compared by time and location of reporting, age and sex, and genetic features of H7N9 virus strains. Results: The overall mortality rate, the male and female specific overall rates of H7N9 is 39.6% (608/1533), 40.3% (432/1072) and 38.2% (176/461), respectively. There was no significant difference between the mortality rates of male and female. The age-specific mortality rates are significantly varied by age groups (χ²=38.16, p < 0.001). The mortality of H7N9 cases in the age group between 20 and 60 (33.17%) and age group of over 60 (51.16%) is much higher than that in the age group of under 20 (5.00%). Considering the time of reporting, the mortality rates of cases which were reported in the first (40.57%) and fourth (42.51%) quarters of each year are significantly higher than the mortality of cases which were reported in the second (36.02%) and third (27.27%) quarters (χ²=75.18, p < 0.001). The geographic specific mortality rates vary too. The mortality rates of H7N9 cases reported from the Northeast China (66.67%) and Westeast China (56.52%) are significantly higher than that of H7N9 cases reported from the remained area of mainland China. The mortality rate of H7N9 cases reported from the Central China is the lowest (34.38%). The mortality rates of H7N9 cases reported from rural (37.76%) and urban (38.96%) areas are similar. The mortality rate of H7N9 cases infected with the highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H7N9) virus (48.15%) is higher than the rate of H7N9 cases infected with the low pathogenic avian influenza A(H7N9) virus (37.57%), but the difference is not statistically significant. Preliminary analyses showed that age and some clinical complications such as respiratory failure, heart failure, and septic shock could be potential risk factors associated with the death of H7N9 cases. Conclusions: The mortality rates of H7N9 cases varied by age, sex, time of reporting and geographical location in mainland China. Further in-depth analyses and field investigations of the factors associated with the severity of H7N9 cases need to be considered.

Keywords: H7N9 virus, Avian Influenza, mortality, China

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Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Saeed Ahmadian, Hedie Ashrafi

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World-wide spread of coronavirus grows the concern about planning for the excess demand of hospital services in response to COVID-19 pandemic. The surge in the hospital services demand beyond the current capacity leads to shortage of ICU beds and ventilators in some parts of US. In this study, we forecast the required number of hospital beds and possible shortage of beds in US during COVID-19 pandemic to be used in the planning and hospitalization of new cases. In this paper, we used a data on COVID-19 deaths and patients’ hospitalization besides the data on hospital capacities and utilization in US from publicly available sources and national government websites. we used a novel ensemble modelling of deep learning networks, based on stacking different linear and non-linear layers to predict the shortage in hospital beds. The results showed that our proposed approach can predict the excess hospital beds demand very well and this can be helpful in developing strategies and plans to mitigate this gap.

Keywords: COVID-19, deep learning, ensembled models, hospital capacity planning

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Authors: T. Watanabe

Abstract:

Combustion analysis of suspended sodium droplet is performed by solving numerically the Navier-Stokes equations and the energy conservation equations. The combustion model consists of the pre-ignition and post-ignition models. The reaction rate for the pre-ignition model is based on the chemical kinetics, while that for the post-ignition model is based on the mass transfer rate of oxygen. The calculated droplet temperature is shown to be in good agreement with the existing experimental data. The temperature field in and around the droplet is obtained as well as the droplet shape variation, and the present numerical model is confirmed to be effective for the combustion analysis.

Keywords: analysis, combustion, droplet, sodium

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Authors: Ghada M. AlSwayied, Anas N. AlHumaid

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Smoking has been linked to thousands of deaths worldwide. Around three million adults continue to use tobacco each day in Saudi Arabia; a sign that smoking is prevalent among Saudi population and obviously considered as a public health threat. Although the awareness against smoking is continuously running, it can be observed that smoking behavior increases noticeably as common practice especially among young adults across the world. Therefore, it was an essential step to guess what does motivate smokers to think about quit smoking. Can a graphic and emotional ad that is focusing on health consequences do really make a difference? A case study has been conducted on the Annual Anti-Smoking National Campaign, which was provided by Saudi Ministry of Health in the period of May 2017. To assess campaign’s effects on the number of calls, the number of visits and online access to health messages during and after the campaign period from May to August compared with the previous campaign in 2016. The educational video was selected as a primary tool to deliver the smoking health message. The Minister of Health who is acting as a role model for young adults was used to deliver a direct message to smokers with an avoidance of smoking cues usage. Due to serious consequences of smoking, the Minister of Health delivered the news of canceling the media campaign and directing the budget to smoking cessation clinics. It was shown that the positive responses and interactions on the campaign were obviously remarkable; achieving a high rate of recall and recognition. During the campaign, the number of calls to book for a visit reached 45880 phone calls, and the total online views ran to 1,253,879. Whereas, clinic visit raised up to 213 cumulative percent. Interestingly, a total number of 15,192 patients visited the clinics along three months compared with the last year campaign’s period, which was merely 4850 patients. Furthermore, around half of patients who visited the clinics were in the age from 26 to 40-year-old. There was a great progress in enhancing public awareness on: 'where to go' to assist smokers in making a quit attempt. With regard to the stages of change theory, it was predicted that by following direct-message technique; the proportion of patients in the contemplation and preparation stages would be increased. There was no process evaluation obtained to assess implementation of the campaigns’ activities.

Keywords: smoking, health promotion, role model, educational material, intervention, community health

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Authors: Oluwaponmile David Alao

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Due to an increase in the death rate as a result of heart attack. There is need to develop a system that can be useful in the diagnosis of the disease at the medical centre. This system will help in preventing misdiagnosis that may occur from the medical practitioner or the physicians. In this research work, heart disease dataset obtained from UCI repository has been used to develop an intelligent prediction diagnosis system. The system is modeled on a feedforwad neural network and trained with back propagation neural network. A recognition rate of 86% is obtained from the testing of the network.

Keywords: heart disease, artificial neural network, diagnosis, prediction system

Procedia PDF Downloads 437

Authors: Sibashish Baksi, Ujjaini Sarkar, Sudeshna Saha

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In the present study, hydrolysis of Pinus roxburghi wood powder was carried out with Viscozyme, and kinetics of the hydrolysis has been investigated. Finely ground sawdust is submerged into 2% aqueous peroxide solution (pH=11.5) and pretreated through autoclaving, probe sonication, and alkaline peroxide pretreatment. Afterward, the pretreated material is subjected to hydrolysis. A chain of experiments was executed with delignified biomass (50 g/l) and varying enzyme concentrations (24.2–60.5 g/l). In the present study, 14.32 g/l of glucose, along with 7.35 g/l of xylose, have been recovered with a viscozyme concentration of 48.8 g/l and the same condition was treated as optimum condition. Additionally, thermal deactivation of viscozyme has been investigated and found to be gradually decreasing with escalated enzyme loading from 48.4 g/l (dissociation constant= 0.05 h⁻¹) to 60.5 g/l (dissociation constant= 0.02 h⁻¹). The hydrolysis reaction is a pseudo first-order reaction, and therefore, the rate of the hydrolysis can be expressed as a fractal-like kinetic equation that communicates between the product concentration and hydrolytic time t. It is seen that the value of rate constant (K) increases from 0.008 to 0.017 with augmented enzyme concentration from 24.2 g/l to 60.5 g/l. Greater value of K is associated with stronger enzyme binding capacity of the substrate mass. However, escalated concentration of supplied enzyme ensures improved interaction with more substrate molecules resulting in an enhanced de-polymerization of the polymeric sugar chains per unit time which eventually modifies the physiochemical structure of biomass. All fractal dimensions are in between 0 and 1. Lower the value of fractal dimension, more easily the biomass get hydrolyzed. It can be seen that with increased enzyme concentration from 24.2 g/l to 48.4 g/l, the values of fractal dimension go down from 0.1 to 0.044. This indicates that the presence of more enzyme molecules can more easily hydrolyze the substrate. However, an increased value has been observed with a further increment of enzyme concentration to 60.5g/l because of diffusional limitation. It is evident that the hydrolysis reaction system is a heterogeneous organization, and the product formation rate depends strongly on the enzyme diffusion resistances caused by the rate-limiting structures of the substrate-enzyme complex. Value of the rate constant increases from 1.061 to 2.610 with escalated enzyme concentration from 24.2 to 48.4 g/l. As the rate constant is proportional to Fick’s diffusion coefficient, it can be assumed that with a higher concentration of enzyme, a larger amount of enzyme mass dM diffuses into the substrate through the surface dF per unit time dt. Therefore, a higher rate constant value is associated with a faster diffusion of enzyme into the substrate. Regression analysis of time curves with various enzyme concentrations shows that diffusion resistant constant increases from 0.3 to 0.51 for the first two enzyme concentrations and again decreases with enzyme concentration of 60.5 g/l. During diffusion in a differential scale, the enzyme also experiences a greater resistance during diffusion of larger dM through dF in dt.

Keywords: viscozyme, glucose, fractal kinetics, thermal deactivation

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Mohd Izzat Md. Nor, Norfazlina Jaffar, Noor Zaitulakma Md. Zain, Nur Izyanti Mohd Suppian, Subhashini Balakrishnan, Geetha Kandavello

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During the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, Malaysia has been focusing on building herd immunity by introducing vaccination programs into the community. Hospital Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) were developed to prevent inpatient transmission. Objective: In this study, we focus on the positivity rate of inpatient Person Under Surveillance (PUS) becoming COVID-19 positive and compare this to the National rate in order to see the outcomes of the patient who becomes COVID-19 positive in relation to their vaccination status. Methodology: This is a retrospective observational study carried out from 1 January until 30 March 2022 in Institut Jantung Negara (IJN). There were 5,255 patients admitted during the time of this study. Pre-admission Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) swab was done for all patients. Patients with positive PCR on pre-admission screening were excluded. The patient who had exposure to COVID-19-positive staff or patients during hospitalization was defined as PUS and were quarantined and monitored for potential COVID-19 infection. Their frequency and risk of exposure (WHO definition) were recorded. A repeat PCR swab was done for PUS patients that have clinical deterioration with or without COVID symptoms and on their last day of quarantine. The severity of COVID-19 infection was defined as category 1-5A. All patients' vaccination status was recorded, and they were divided into three groups: fully immunised, partially immunised, and unvaccinated. We analyzed the positivity rate of PUS patients becoming COVID-positive, outcomes, and correlation with the vaccination status. Result: Total inpatient PUS to patients and staff was 492; only 13 became positive, giving a positivity rate of 2.6%. Eight (62%) had multiple exposures. The majority, 8/13(72.7%), had a high-risk exposure, and the remaining 5 had medium-risk exposure. Four (30.8%) were boostered, 7(53.8%) were fully vaccinated, and 2(15.4%) were partial/unvaccinated. Eight patients were in categories 1-2, whilst 38% were in categories 3-5. Vaccination status did not correlate with COVID-19 Category (P=0.641). One (7.7%) patient died due to COVID-19 complications and sepsis. Conclusion: Within the first quarter of 2022, our institution's positivity rate (2.6%) is significantly lower than the country's (14.4%). High-risk exposure and multiple exposures to positive COVID-19 cases increased the risk of PUS becoming COVID-19 positive despite their underlying vaccination status.

Keywords: COVID-19, boostered, high risk, Malaysia, quarantine, vaccination status

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Authors: Muhammad Imran Nisar, Fyezah Jehan, Tauseef Akhund, Sadia Shakoor, Kanwal Nayani, Furqan Kabir, Asad Ali, Anita Zaidi

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Pneumococcal Vaccine -10 (PCV 10) was included in the Expanded Program of immunization (EPI) in Sindh, Pakistan in February 2013. This study was carried out immediately before the introduction of PCV 10 to establish baseline pneumococcal carriage and prevalent serotypes in naso-pharynx of children 3-11 months of age in an urban and rural community in Sindh, Pakistan. An additional sample of children aged 12 to 59 months was drawn from the urban community. Nasopharyngeal specimens were collected from a random sample of children. Samples were processed in a central laboratory in Karachi. Pneumococci were cultured on 5% Sheep Blood Agar and serotyping was performed using CDC standardized sequential multiplex PCR assay on bacterial colonies. Serotypes were then categorized into vaccine (PCV-10 and PCV-13) type and non-vaccine types. A total of 670 children were enrolled. Carriage rate for pneumococcus based on culture positivity was 74% and 79.5 % in the infant group in Karachi and Matiari respectively. Carriage rate was 78.2% for children aged 12 to 59 months in Karachi. Proportion of PCV 10 serotypes in infants was 38.8% and 33.5% in Karachi and Matiari respectively. In the older age group in Karachi, the proportion was 30.6%. Most common serotypes were 6A, 6B, 23F, 19A and 18C. This survey establishes vaccine and non-vaccine serotype carriage rate in a vaccine-naïve pediatric population among rural and urban communities in Sindh province. Annually planned surveys in the same communities will inform change in carriage rate after the introduction and uptake of PCV 10 in these communities.

Keywords: Naso-Pharyngeal carriage, Pakistan, PCV10, Pneumococcus

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Authors: Mohammad Atiqur Rahman

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The study aimed at inventorying the threatened biodiversity of Bangladesh and assessing the rate of loss of biodiversity caused due to environmental degradation for conservation management. The impact assessment of environmental depletion and rate of biodiversity loss determination have been made by a long term field investigation, examination of preserved herbarium specimens and survey of relevant floristic literature following the IUCN’s threatened criteria of assessing Red List Plants under the Flora Bangladesh Project. Biodiversity of Bangladesh, as evaluated, has been affected to a large extent during the last four and half decades due to spontaneous environmental degradation caused by frequent occurrence of cyclonic storms and tidal bores since 1970 and flooding, draught, unilateral diversion of trans-boundary waters by operating Farakka Barrage since 1975, indiscriminate destruction and over exploitation of natural resources, unplanned development and industrialization, overpopulation etc. Depletion of world’s largest mangrove biodiversity in Sundarbans, coastal and island biodiversity in southern part, agro-biodiversity and agro-fisheries all over the country, Haor and wetland biodiversity of plain lands, terrestrial and forest biodiversity in central and eastern hilly part of Bangladesh, as assessed, have greatly been occurred at a higher rate due to environmental degradation which in turn affect directly or indirectly the economy, food security and environmental health of the country. Complete inventory of 30 plant families resulted in the recognition of 45.18% species of Bangladesh as threatened environmentally and 13.23% species as possibly extinct from the flora since these have neither been reported or could be traced in the field for more than 100 years. The rate of extinction is determined to be 2.65% per 20 years. Hence the study indicates that the loss of biodiversity and environmental degradation in Bangladesh occurring at an alarming rate. The study focuses on the issues of environment, the extent of loss of different plant biodiversities in Bangladesh, prioritizing and implementing national conservation strategies for sustainable management of the environment.

Keywords: Bangladesh, biodiversity, conservation, environmental management

Procedia PDF Downloads 241