Search results for: SVAR

Authors: Elias Udeaja, Elijah Udoh

Abstract:

Exploring an extended SVAR model (SVAR-X), we use the case of Nigeria to hypothesize for the role of uncertainty as the underlying source of asymmetries in the response of monetary policy to output and inflation. Deciphered the empirical finding is the potential of monetary policy exhibiting greater sensitive to shocks due to output growth than they do to shocks due to inflation in recession periods, while the reverse appears to be the case for a contractionary monetary policy. We also find the asymmetric preference in the response of monetary policy to changes in output and inflation as relatively more pronounced when we control for uncertainty as the underlying source of asymmetries.

Keywords: asymmetry response, developing economies, monetary policy shocks, uncertainty

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Authors: Risikat Oladoyin S. Dauda, Onyebuchi Iwegbu

Abstract:

This study investigates the response of human development outcomes to selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. Human development outcomes is measured by human development index while the selected macroeconomic variables are inflation rate, real interest rate, government capital expenditure, real exchange rate, current account balance, and savings. Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) technique is employed in examining the response of human development index to the macroeconomic shocks. The result from the forecast error variance decomposition and Impulse-Response analysis reveals that fiscal policy (government capital expenditure) shock is the greatest determinant of human development outcomes. This result reiterates the role which the government plays in improving the welfare of the citizenry. The fiscal policy tool is pivotal in human development which comes in the form of investment in education, health, housing, and infrastructure. Further conclusion drawn from this study is that human development outcome positively and significantly responds to shocks from real interest rate, a monetary policy transmission variable and is felt greatly in the short run period. The policy implication of this study is that if capital budget implementation falls below expectations, human development will be engendered. Hence, efforts should be made to ensure that full implementation and appraisal of government capital expenditure is taken sacrosanct as any shock from such plan, engenders human development outcome.

Keywords: human development outcome, macroeconomic outcomes, structural vector autoregression, SVAR

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Authors: Parma Chakravartti

Abstract:

The impact of government spending and taxation on economic growth has remained a central issue of fiscal policy analysis. There is a wide range of opinions over the strength of fiscal policy’s effect on macroeconomic variables. It can be argued that the impact of fiscal policy depends on the structure and economic condition of the economy. This study makes an attempt to examine the effect of fiscal policy shocks on growth in India using the structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR), considering data from 1950 to 2019. The study finds that government spending is an important instrument of growth in India, where the share of revenue expenditure to capital expenditure plays a key role. The optimum composition of total expenditure is important for growth and it is not necessarily true that capital expenditure multiplier is more than revenue expenditure multiplier. The study also finds that the impact of public economic activities on private economic activities for both consumption expenditure and gross capital formation of government crowds in private consumption expenditure and private gross capital formation, respectively, thus indicating that government expenditure complements private expenditure in India.

Keywords: government spending, fiscal policy, multiplier, growth

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Authors: Muhammad Ajmair

Abstract:

This empirical study followed structural vector auto regression (SVAR) approach proposed by the so-called AB-model of Amisano and Giannini (1997) to check the impact of relevant macroeconomic determinants on economic growth in Pakistan. Before that auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing technique and time varying parametric approach along with general to specific approach was employed to find out relevant significant determinants of economic growth. To our best knowledge, no author made such a study that employed auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing and time varying parametric approach with general to specific approach in empirical literature, but current study will bridge this gap. Annual data was taken from World Development Indicators (2014) during period 1976-2014. The widely-used Schwarz information criterion and Akaike information criterion were considered for the lag length in each estimated equation. Main findings of the study are that remittances received, gross national expenditures and inflation are found to be the best relevant positive and significant determinants of economic growth. Based on these empirical findings, we conclude that government should focus on overall economic growth augmenting factors while formulating any policy relevant to the concerned sector.

Keywords: economic growth, gross national expenditures, inflation, remittances

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Authors: Walaa Diab, Baher Atlam, Nadia El Nimer

Abstract:

Egypt faces many obvious economic challenges, and it is so clear that a real economic transformation is needed to address those problems, especially after the recent decisions of floating the Egyptian pound and the gradual subsidy cuts that are trying to meet the needed conditions to get the IMF support of (a £12bn loan) for its economic reform program. Following the post-2008 revival of the interest in the fiscal policy and its vital role in speeding up or slowing down the economic growth. Here comes the value of this paper as it seeks to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Egypt by applying A Bayesian SVAR Approach. The study uses the Bayesian method because it includes the prior information and no relevant information is omitted and so it is well suited for rational, evidence-based decision-making. Since the study aims to define the effects of fiscal policy shocks in Egypt to help the decision-makers in determining the proper means to correct the structural problems in the Egyptian economy, it has to study the period of 1990s economic reform, but unfortunately; the available data is on an annual frequency. Thus, it uses annual time series to study the period 1991: 2005 And quarterly data over the period 2006–2016. It uses a set of six main variables includes government expenditure and net tax revenues as fiscal policy arms affecting real GDP, unemployment, inflation and the interest rate. The study also tries to assess the 'crowding out' effects by considering the effects of government spending and government revenue shocks on the composition of GDP, namely, on private consumption and private investment. Last but not least the study provides its policy implications regarding the needed role of fiscal policy in Egypt in the upcoming economic reform building on the results it concludes from the previous reform program.

Keywords: fiscal policy, government spending, structural vector autoregression, taxation

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